politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation test a constituency specific question in its new

System · January 2015

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation test a constituency specific question in its new Mirror poll and get a slightly different outcome

An unusual feature of the new Survation poll for the Daily Mirror is that, partly at my suggestion, it used the two stage voting question similar to that which we see in the Ashcroft marginals polling.

Read the full story here

saddo · January 2015

1st again.

Labour should be worried either way. Tories way is only upwards failing some major black swan. Labour have Ed.

felix · January 2015

After 3 Tory leads overnight we have a thread which focuses on a Labour lead. Interesting. I suspect there'll be a large number of activists signing up for online polling firms today.

Paul_Mid_Beds · January 2015

Looking good for my long predicted Valentines Day Swingback Massacre

AlastairMeeks · January 2015

Odd that Lord Ashcroft finds rises in Lib Dem support (even in seats where the Lib Dems aren't in contention) when respondents are prompted to think of their constituency and Survation finds no change at all. The other figures are fairly consistent though.

NB despite all the excitement last night, the story seems to be one of Labour falling support rather than Conservative rising support. That does not seem to presage a Conservative overall majority to me. If the Tories start rising in the polls above 31%, I may revise my opinion, but not before.

JackW · January 2015

Latest ARSE 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

150 minutes

audreyanne · January 2015

"After all in general elections the actual choice is for an individual to be our MP not a party."

I think that's only true on a superficial, paper, level. In one sense, it's true. We place our cross next to a specific name. But most of the big media work in the build up, including on here, is pitched about the national share, the national parties and particularly who do you want as next Prime Minister. So I think it's simplistic, and slightly misleading, to make people focus specifically on their local candidate.

Casino_Royale · January 2015

antifrank said:
Odd that Lord Ashcroft finds rises in Lib Dem support (even in seats where the Lib Dems aren't in contention) when respondents are prompted to think of their constituency and Survation finds no change at all. The other figures are fairly consistent though.

NB despite all the excitement last night, the story seems to be one of Labour falling support rather than Conservative rising support. That does not seem to presage a Conservative overall majority to me. If the Tories start rising in the polls above 31%, I may revise my opinion, but not before.

A Conservative overall majority is a massive ask. To anyone interested in betting on that I'd recommend taking a look at the sorts of seats they'd need to take from Labour to do that.

You can (still) get much better odds than 5/1 on quite a few of these:

https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/could-the-conservatives-win-an-overall-majority-in-the-2015-general-election-next-year-part-2/

Casino_Royale · January 2015

FPT: @AndyJS - I like your vote 2012 amateur predictions table from the "anoraks". Is that 33 direct Labour gains from Con?

The Conservatives needs to hold at least another dozen of those to stay in office.

DavidL · January 2015

A couple of the polls yesterday had the Tories edging up to 34. Whilst I agree with antifrank that the overall driving force is the continuing Labour decline that is worth keeping an eye on.

The real question is how far Labour can fall. Labour were supposed to be assured of a much higher score than last time as a result of the red liberals who have given them a lead for most of this Parliament. Now some of them seemed to have moved on to the Greens (not back to the Lib Dems unfortunately) as they join the many other groups disillusioned by Ed.

I would expect the Tory vote to fall from the last time by 1 or 2 percent. If they are to be comfortably the largest party they need Labour to go sub 30. This is starting to look possible although there is a very long way to go. If I was betting the house on it I would still say Labour largest party with NOM. But it is getting closer.

Alanbrooke · January 2015

DavidL said:
A couple of the polls yesterday had the Tories edging up to 34. Whilst I agree with antifrank that the overall driving force is the continuing Labour decline that is worth keeping an eye on.

The real question is how far Labour can fall. Labour were supposed to be assured of a much higher score than last time as a result of the red liberals who have given them a lead for most of this Parliament. Now some of them seemed to have moved on to the Greens (not back to the Lib Dems unfortunately) as they join the many other groups disillusioned by Ed.

I would expect the Tory vote to fall from the last time by 1 or 2 percent. If they are to be comfortably the largest party they need Labour to go sub 30. This is starting to look possible although there is a very long way to go. If I was betting the house on it I would still say Labour largest party with NOM. But it is getting closer.

By the time we get to the GE I'd expect the Tory vote to go up by 3-5% based on soft kippers holding their noses. Labour is drifting down and may yet go sub 30 %. However we're still on for a HP and I'd say Cons largest vote share and probably most seats.

Socrates · January 2015

audreyanne said:
"After all in general elections the actual choice is for an individual to be our MP not a party."

I think that's only true on a superficial, paper, level. In one sense, it's true. We place our cross next to a specific name. But most of the big media work in the build up, including on here, is pitched about the national share, the national parties and particularly who do you want as next Prime Minister. So I think it's simplistic, and slightly misleading, to make people focus specifically on their local candidate.

This is something that I can think you can argue either way. And I have full respect for people like Richard Tyndall who supports FPTP and a candidate-only view, but also consistently argues for breaking the power of the whips. What I don't think is consistent is those people who argue for a party-centred political system, and yet still support FPTP. If you think people are voting for the party, why have an electoral system that acts as if they are voting only for the candidate?

Personally, I prefer a hybrid approach: accept people are voting for both the candidate and the party. Hence STV with small constituencies (perhaps 3-member). In that way, the parties broad support is represented in parliament but it's also easy to get rid of crappy candidates.

audreyanne · January 2015

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:
A couple of the polls yesterday had the Tories edging up to 34. Whilst I agree with antifrank that the overall driving force is the continuing Labour decline that is worth keeping an eye on.

The real question is how far Labour can fall. Labour were supposed to be assured of a much higher score than last time as a result of the red liberals who have given them a lead for most of this Parliament. Now some of them seemed to have moved on to the Greens (not back to the Lib Dems unfortunately) as they join the many other groups disillusioned by Ed.

I would expect the Tory vote to fall from the last time by 1 or 2 percent. If they are to be comfortably the largest party they need Labour to go sub 30. This is starting to look possible although there is a very long way to go. If I was betting the house on it I would still say Labour largest party with NOM. But it is getting closer.
By the time we get to the GE I'd expect the Tory vote to go up by 3-5% based on soft kippers holding their noses. Labour is drifting down and may yet go sub 30 %. However we're still on for a HP and I'd say Cons largest vote share and probably most seats.

I think that's a pretty sanguine post, but if the Tories do edge up 3-5% from, say, 34% they have an outright majority, especially if Labour drift as low as 30%.

If the LibDems poll in single figures the Conservatives should also pick up 20+ yellow seats.

audreyanne · January 2015

Socrates said:

audreyanne said:
"After all in general elections the actual choice is for an individual to be our MP not a party."

I think that's only true on a superficial, paper, level. In one sense, it's true. We place our cross next to a specific name. But most of the big media work in the build up, including on here, is pitched about the national share, the national parties and particularly who do you want as next Prime Minister. So I think it's simplistic, and slightly misleading, to make people focus specifically on their local candidate.
This is something that I can think you can argue either way. And I have full respect for people like Richard Tyndall who supports FPTP and a candidate-only view, but also consistently argues for breaking the power of the whips. What I don't think is consistent is those people who argue for a party-centred political system, and yet still support FPTP. If you think people are voting for the party, why have an electoral system that acts as if they are voting only for the candidate?

Personally, I prefer a hybrid approach: accept people are voting for both the candidate and the party. Hence STV with small constituencies (perhaps 3-member). In that way, the parties broad support is represented in parliament but it's also easy to get rid of crappy candidates.

Yes I must say I'm pretty much with you on this Socrates. It's an imperfect current system and I'm not convinced it's a case of the 'least bad option.'

DavidL · January 2015

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:
A couple of the polls yesterday had the Tories edging up to 34. Whilst I agree with antifrank that the overall driving force is the continuing Labour decline that is worth keeping an eye on.

The real question is how far Labour can fall. Labour were supposed to be assured of a much higher score than last time as a result of the red liberals who have given them a lead for most of this Parliament. Now some of them seemed to have moved on to the Greens (not back to the Lib Dems unfortunately) as they join the many other groups disillusioned by Ed.

I would expect the Tory vote to fall from the last time by 1 or 2 percent. If they are to be comfortably the largest party they need Labour to go sub 30. This is starting to look possible although there is a very long way to go. If I was betting the house on it I would still say Labour largest party with NOM. But it is getting closer.
By the time we get to the GE I'd expect the Tory vote to go up by 3-5% based on soft kippers holding their noses. Labour is drifting down and may yet go sub 30 %. However we're still on for a HP and I'd say Cons largest vote share and probably most seats.

I agree the tories are favourite to get the most votes. Not so sure about the most seats though. So much depends on Scotland for that.

I seem to recall that Mike has a bet Tories most votes, Labour most seats. I have a concern that we might be hearing about that for as long as we have been about Obama.

Alanbrooke · January 2015

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:
A couple of the polls yesterday had the Tories edging up to 34. Whilst I agree with antifrank that the overall driving force is the continuing Labour decline that is worth keeping an eye on.

The real question is how far Labour can fall. Labour were supposed to be assured of a much higher score than last time as a result of the red liberals who have given them a lead for most of this Parliament. Now some of them seemed to have moved on to the Greens (not back to the Lib Dems unfortunately) as they join the many other groups disillusioned by Ed.

I would expect the Tory vote to fall from the last time by 1 or 2 percent. If they are to be comfortably the largest party they need Labour to go sub 30. This is starting to look possible although there is a very long way to go. If I was betting the house on it I would still say Labour largest party with NOM. But it is getting closer.
By the time we get to the GE I'd expect the Tory vote to go up by 3-5% based on soft kippers holding their noses. Labour is drifting down and may yet go sub 30 %. However we're still on for a HP and I'd say Cons largest vote share and probably most seats.
I agree the tories are favourite to get the most votes. Not so sure about the most seats though. So much depends on Scotland for that.

I seem to recall that Mike has a bet Tories most votes, Labour most seats. I have a concern that we might be hearing about that for as long as we have been about Obama.

It depends on Scotland and as ever the see-saw of English marginals. Really the Tories should be walking this election, but the Cameroony piss on your supporters has left them badly placed in seats they should have sewn up.

Scrapheap_as_was · January 2015

Betfair most seats has moved - again - towards the blues...

Blue tied - 1.91/1.92 (y'day 1.93/1.94)
Reds ahead - 2.12/2.14 (y'day 2.10/2.12)

audreyanne · January 2015

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:
A couple of the polls yesterday had the Tories edging up to 34. Whilst I agree with antifrank that the overall driving force is the continuing Labour decline that is worth keeping an eye on.

The real question is how far Labour can fall. Labour were supposed to be assured of a much higher score than last time as a result of the red liberals who have given them a lead for most of this Parliament. Now some of them seemed to have moved on to the Greens (not back to the Lib Dems unfortunately) as they join the many other groups disillusioned by Ed.

I would expect the Tory vote to fall from the last time by 1 or 2 percent. If they are to be comfortably the largest party they need Labour to go sub 30. This is starting to look possible although there is a very long way to go. If I was betting the house on it I would still say Labour largest party with NOM. But it is getting closer.
By the time we get to the GE I'd expect the Tory vote to go up by 3-5% based on soft kippers holding their noses. Labour is drifting down and may yet go sub 30 %. However we're still on for a HP and I'd say Cons largest vote share and probably most seats.
I agree the tories are favourite to get the most votes. Not so sure about the most seats though. So much depends on Scotland for that.

I seem to recall that Mike has a bet Tories most votes, Labour most seats. I have a concern that we might be hearing about that for as long as we have been about Obama.
Really the Tories should be walking this election,

Not really. Several years of austerity and a coalition government are not an obvious springboard for outright victory. That the Conservatives on latest polling are within a shout of clear blue water says more about Labour and the LibDems than what is going on to their right.

Socrates · January 2015

Why don't the broadcasters just implement Northern Ireland specific debates? Presumably the Northern Irish parties would prefer that, as it would mean they get a lot more speaking time to get their message out.

Alanbrooke · January 2015

audreyanne said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:
A couple of the polls yesterday had the Tories edging up to 34. Whilst I agree with antifrank that the overall driving force is the continuing Labour decline that is worth keeping an eye on.

The real question is how far Labour can fall. Labour were supposed to be assured of a much higher score than last time as a result of the red liberals who have given them a lead for most of this Parliament. Now some of them seemed to have moved on to the Greens (not back to the Lib Dems unfortunately) as they join the many other groups disillusioned by Ed.

I would expect the Tory vote to fall from the last time by 1 or 2 percent. If they are to be comfortably the largest party they need Labour to go sub 30. This is starting to look possible although there is a very long way to go. If I was betting the house on it I would still say Labour largest party with NOM. But it is getting closer.
By the time we get to the GE I'd expect the Tory vote to go up by 3-5% based on soft kippers holding their noses. Labour is drifting down and may yet go sub 30 %. However we're still on for a HP and I'd say Cons largest vote share and probably most seats.
I agree the tories are favourite to get the most votes. Not so sure about the most seats though. So much depends on Scotland for that.

I seem to recall that Mike has a bet Tories most votes, Labour most seats. I have a concern that we might be hearing about that for as long as we have been about Obama.
Really the Tories should be walking this election,
Not really. Several years of austerity and a coalition government are not an obvious springboard for outright victory. That the Conservatives on latest polling are within a shout of clear blue water says more about Labour and the LibDems than what is going on to their right.

Any old excuse to cover up failure. There's little doubt that if Cameron had treated his natural consitituency with a bit more respect instead of playing to the gallery he'd be starting this campaign from a much higher vote share.

Alanbrooke · January 2015

Socrates said:
Why don't the broadcasters just implement Northern Ireland specific debates? Presumably the Northern Irish parties would prefer that, as it would mean they get a lot more speaking time to get their message out.

they happen anyhow

audreyanne · January 2015

Alanbrooke said:

audreyanne said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:
A couple of the polls yesterday had the Tories edging up to 34. Whilst I agree with antifrank that the overall driving force is the continuing Labour decline that is worth keeping an eye on.

The real question is how far Labour can fall. Labour were supposed to be assured of a much higher score than last time as a result of the red liberals who have given them a lead for most of this Parliament. Now some of them seemed to have moved on to the Greens (not back to the Lib Dems unfortunately) as they join the many other groups disillusioned by Ed.

I would expect the Tory vote to fall from the last time by 1 or 2 percent. If they are to be comfortably the largest party they need Labour to go sub 30. This is starting to look possible although there is a very long way to go. If I was betting the house on it I would still say Labour largest party with NOM. But it is getting closer.
By the time we get to the GE I'd expect the Tory vote to go up by 3-5% based on soft kippers holding their noses. Labour is drifting down and may yet go sub 30 %. However we're still on for a HP and I'd say Cons largest vote share and probably most seats.
I agree the tories are favourite to get the most votes. Not so sure about the most seats though. So much depends on Scotland for that.

I seem to recall that Mike has a bet Tories most votes, Labour most seats. I have a concern that we might be hearing about that for as long as we have been about Obama.
Really the Tories should be walking this election,
Not really. Several years of austerity and a coalition government are not an obvious springboard for outright victory. That the Conservatives on latest polling are within a shout of clear blue water says more about Labour and the LibDems than what is going on to their right.
Any old excuse to cover up failure. There's little doubt that if Cameron had treated his natural consitituency with a bit more respect instead of playing to the gallery he'd be starting this campaign from a much higher vote share.

Well I'm glad for you that you find little doubt about it. I, on the other hand, disagree. Elections are won in the centre ground and Cameron has secured his pitch very well.

I'm more than ever confident of a clear Conservative win.

Scrapheap_as_was · January 2015

Scrapheap_as_was said:
Betfair most seats has moved - again - towards the blues...

Blue tied - 1.91/1.92 (y'day 1.93/1.94)
Reds ahead - 2.12/2.14 (y'day 2.10/2.12)

Exactly a week ago, Labour were still just ahead....

I predict that if Ashcroft's Scottish polling isn't as apocolyptic as suggested for Labour, a switch back is likely and who thinks a thread will then ensue!

Socrates · January 2015

audreyanne said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:
A couple of the polls yesterday had the Tories edging up to 34. Whilst I agree with antifrank that the overall driving force is the continuing Labour decline that is worth keeping an eye on.

The real question is how far Labour can fall. Labour were supposed to be assured of a much higher score than last time as a result of the red liberals who have given them a lead for most of this Parliament. Now some of them seemed to have moved on to the Greens (not back to the Lib Dems unfortunately) as they join the many other groups disillusioned by Ed.

I would expect the Tory vote to fall from the last time by 1 or 2 percent. If they are to be comfortably the largest party they need Labour to go sub 30. This is starting to look possible although there is a very long way to go. If I was betting the house on it I would still say Labour largest party with NOM. But it is getting closer.
By the time we get to the GE I'd expect the Tory vote to go up by 3-5% based on soft kippers holding their noses. Labour is drifting down and may yet go sub 30 %. However we're still on for a HP and I'd say Cons largest vote share and probably most seats.
I agree the tories are favourite to get the most votes. Not so sure about the most seats though. So much depends on Scotland for that.

I seem to recall that Mike has a bet Tories most votes, Labour most seats. I have a concern that we might be hearing about that for as long as we have been about Obama.
Really the Tories should be walking this election,
Not really. Several years of austerity and a coalition government are not an obvious springboard for outright victory. That the Conservatives on latest polling are within a shout of clear blue water says more about Labour and the LibDems than what is going on to their right.

Yet 15% of the public are voting for UKIP, largely based on positions that the vast majority of the Conservative party is comfortable with, but the party isn't adopting as policy.

chestnut · January 2015

4 point leads in England for the Tories with both Survation and Comres.

Alanbrooke · January 2015

@Audreyanne

As ever the usual recycled Blairite crap.

Elections are only won in the centre ground if you keep your other wing on board. It's basic mathematics. No point gaining a vote while losing one at the same time.

The cameroons failed to realise the mantra " they've nowhere else to go" only works in the short term. Voters have always had the option to sit at home and over time new alternatives present themselves for the unrepresented.

Instead of the centre ground mantra, Cameron's Blair impersonation would have better adopting the big tent approach, he'd be home and dry by now.

foxinsoxuk · January 2015

Casino_Royale said:

antifrank said:
Odd that Lord Ashcroft finds rises in Lib Dem support (even in seats where the Lib Dems aren't in contention) when respondents are prompted to think of their constituency and Survation finds no change at all. The other figures are fairly consistent though.

NB despite all the excitement last night, the story seems to be one of Labour falling support rather than Conservative rising support. That does not seem to presage a Conservative overall majority to me. If the Tories start rising in the polls above 31%, I may revise my opinion, but not before.
A Conservative overall majority is a massive ask. To anyone interested in betting on that I'd recommend taking a look at the sorts of seats they'd need to take from Labour to do that.

You can (still) get much better odds than 5/1 on quite a few of these:

https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/could-the-conservatives-win-an-overall-majority-in-the-2015-general-election-next-year-part-2/

Some quite good constituency data, I have a dabble on a few of these myself.

Hampstead will be interesting, I think the mansion tax and Greens could see the Conservatives home here.

foxinsoxuk · January 2015

@Alanbrooke‌

Numbers are part of it but geography also matters. It is probably worth losing two Tories to the kippers in Rutland if the Tories can pick up one LD in Loughborough. Repeat across the country and get a much more effective vote distribution.

logical_song · January 2015

audreyanne said:

Socrates said:

audreyanne said:
"After all in general elections the actual choice is for an individual to be our MP not a party."

I think that's only true on a superficial, paper, level. In one sense, it's true. We place our cross next to a specific name. But most of the big media work in the build up, including on here, is pitched about the national share, the national parties and particularly who do you want as next Prime Minister. So I think it's simplistic, and slightly misleading, to make people focus specifically on their local candidate.
This is something that I can think you can argue either way. And I have full respect for people like Richard Tyndall who supports FPTP and a candidate-only view, but also consistently argues for breaking the power of the whips. What I don't think is consistent is those people who argue for a party-centred political system, and yet still support FPTP. If you think people are voting for the party, why have an electoral system that acts as if they are voting only for the candidate?

Personally, I prefer a hybrid approach: accept people are voting for both the candidate and the party. Hence STV with small constituencies (perhaps 3-member). In that way, the parties broad support is represented in parliament but it's also easy to get rid of crappy candidates.
Yes I must say I'm pretty much with you on this Socrates. It's an imperfect current system and I'm not convinced it's a case of the 'least bad option.'

Agree with both AudreyAnne and Socrates on this one.

Peter_the_Punter · January 2015

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

antifrank said:
Odd that Lord Ashcroft finds rises in Lib Dem support (even in seats where the Lib Dems aren't in contention) when respondents are prompted to think of their constituency and Survation finds no change at all. The other figures are fairly consistent though.

NB despite all the excitement last night, the story seems to be one of Labour falling support rather than Conservative rising support. That does not seem to presage a Conservative overall majority to me. If the Tories start rising in the polls above 31%, I may revise my opinion, but not before.
A Conservative overall majority is a massive ask. To anyone interested in betting on that I'd recommend taking a look at the sorts of seats they'd need to take from Labour to do that.

You can (still) get much better odds than 5/1 on quite a few of these:

https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/could-the-conservatives-win-an-overall-majority-in-the-2015-general-election-next-year-part-2/
Some quite good constituency data, I have a dabble on a few of these myself.

Hampstead will be interesting, I think the mansion tax and Greens could see the Conservatives home here.

Taffy posted something similar a few days back, Fox.

Labour are 1/4 and I offered to better the Oddschecker prices if he - or anybody else - was interested in backing anybody but Labour in Hampstead.

I wasn't exactly knocked over in the rush, but the offer still stands if you are interested.

TGOHF · January 2015

Ed negotiating hard on R5 - will turn up whatever the format.

Vote Doormat.

audreyanne · January 2015

Casino_Royale said:

antifrank said:
Odd that Lord Ashcroft finds rises in Lib Dem support (even in seats where the Lib Dems aren't in contention) when respondents are prompted to think of their constituency and Survation finds no change at all. The other figures are fairly consistent though.

NB despite all the excitement last night, the story seems to be one of Labour falling support rather than Conservative rising support. That does not seem to presage a Conservative overall majority to me. If the Tories start rising in the polls above 31%, I may revise my opinion, but not before.
A Conservative overall majority is a massive ask. To anyone interested in betting on that I'd recommend taking a look at the sorts of seats they'd need to take from Labour to do that.

You can (still) get much better odds than 5/1 on quite a few of these:

You're still committing the cardinal error. The majority of the E&W Conservative gains are likely to come from the Liberal Democrats if the LD's continue to poll in single figures. You asked me yesterday to list them but it's a game I don't wish to play at the moment (because I want to continue to monitor individual constituency polling and feedback on the ground). I have a list of 32 yellow seats that I think are highly vulnerable to the blues. Even you should be capable of Baxterising to see a cruder version of the list. Input, say, 37/30/7 and see what it comes up with. Here, I've even done it for you: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=37&LAB=30&LIB=7&UKIP=12&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2010

I repeat: it's not Labour to Conservative we need to be watching in England and Wales so much as LibDem to Conservative.

JWisemann · January 2015

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:
A couple of the polls yesterday had the Tories edging up to 34. Whilst I agree with antifrank that the overall driving force is the continuing Labour decline that is worth keeping an eye on.

The real question is how far Labour can fall. Labour were supposed to be assured of a much higher score than last time as a result of the red liberals who have given them a lead for most of this Parliament. Now some of them seemed to have moved on to the Greens (not back to the Lib Dems unfortunately) as they join the many other groups disillusioned by Ed.

I would expect the Tory vote to fall from the last time by 1 or 2 percent. If they are to be comfortably the largest party they need Labour to go sub 30. This is starting to look possible although there is a very long way to go. If I was betting the house on it I would still say Labour largest party with NOM. But it is getting closer.
By the time we get to the GE I'd expect the Tory vote to go up by 3-5% based on soft kippers holding their noses. Labour is drifting down and may yet go sub 30 %. However we're still on for a HP and I'd say Cons largest vote share and probably most seats.

Why would the 'soft' SNP and Green voters that have led to labour's recent modest decline not also drift back under the same logic?

Scrapheap_as_was · January 2015

** Dan Hodges wrong shock **

Ed isn't offering a plan, but a 'sense' of a plan...

Dan Hodges‏@DPJHodges·1 min1 minute ago Bromley, London
Ed Miliband: "What people in the NHS – staff and patients – are crying out for is a sense of a plan". Vote Ed. He has a plan. Oh yes.

He also can't remember if he said he wanted to weaponise the NHS... that and the deficit, what is his short term memory like?

Casino_Royale · January 2015

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

antifrank said:
Odd that Lord Ashcroft finds rises in Lib Dem support (even in seats where the Lib Dems aren't in contention) when respondents are prompted to think of their constituency and Survation finds no change at all. The other figures are fairly consistent though.

NB despite all the excitement last night, the story seems to be one of Labour falling support rather than Conservative rising support. That does not seem to presage a Conservative overall majority to me. If the Tories start rising in the polls above 31%, I may revise my opinion, but not before.
A Conservative overall majority is a massive ask. To anyone interested in betting on that I'd recommend taking a look at the sorts of seats they'd need to take from Labour to do that.

You can (still) get much better odds than 5/1 on quite a few of these:

https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/could-the-conservatives-win-an-overall-majority-in-the-2015-general-election-next-year-part-2/
Some quite good constituency data, I have a dabble on a few of these myself.

Hampstead will be interesting, I think the mansion tax and Greens could see the Conservatives home here.

I can't see the Conservatives managing it myself. The collapse in the Lib Dem vote will massively favour Labour. They might uptick a bit but, as Ashcroft's marginal poll showed, the Conservatives are starting miles behind.

AndyJS · January 2015

Sky News have a projection this morning that the SNP are on course to win 53 of the 59 seats in Scotland.

audreyanne · January 2015

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

antifrank said:
Odd that Lord Ashcroft finds rises in Lib Dem support (even in seats where the Lib Dems aren't in contention) when respondents are prompted to think of their constituency and Survation finds no change at all. The other figures are fairly consistent though.

NB despite all the excitement last night, the story seems to be one of Labour falling support rather than Conservative rising support. That does not seem to presage a Conservative overall majority to me. If the Tories start rising in the polls above 31%, I may revise my opinion, but not before.
A Conservative overall majority is a massive ask. To anyone interested in betting on that I'd recommend taking a look at the sorts of seats they'd need to take from Labour to do that.

You can (still) get much better odds than 5/1 on quite a few of these:

https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/could-the-conservatives-win-an-overall-majority-in-the-2015-general-election-next-year-part-2/

Hampstead will be interesting, I think the mansion tax and Greens could see the Conservatives home here.

Me too. Glenda is worried. Notwithstanding my previous posts there are some Labour London seats that are vulnerable.

Pulpstar · January 2015

AndyJS said:
Sky News have a projection this morning that the SNP are on course to win 53 of the 59 seats in Scotland.

Good !

AndyJS · January 2015

Casino_Royale said:
FPT: @AndyJS - I like your vote 2012 amateur predictions table from the "anoraks". Is that 33 direct Labour gains from Con?

The Conservatives needs to hold at least another dozen of those to stay in office.

Yes I think it was 33.

Seats at the moment are something like Lab 280, Con 275, LD 35, SNP 35, UKIP 5. The numbers are changing slightly all the time as new people cast votes.

AndyJS · January 2015

audreyanne said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

antifrank said:
Odd that Lord Ashcroft finds rises in Lib Dem support (even in seats where the Lib Dems aren't in contention) when respondents are prompted to think of their constituency and Survation finds no change at all. The other figures are fairly consistent though.

NB despite all the excitement last night, the story seems to be one of Labour falling support rather than Conservative rising support. That does not seem to presage a Conservative overall majority to me. If the Tories start rising in the polls above 31%, I may revise my opinion, but not before.
A Conservative overall majority is a massive ask. To anyone interested in betting on that I'd recommend taking a look at the sorts of seats they'd need to take from Labour to do that.

You can (still) get much better odds than 5/1 on quite a few of these:

https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/could-the-conservatives-win-an-overall-majority-in-the-2015-general-election-next-year-part-2/

Hampstead will be interesting, I think the mansion tax and Greens could see the Conservatives home here.
Me too. Glenda is worried. Notwithstanding my previous posts there are some Labour London seats that are vulnerable.

Glenda is standing down. The new candidate is Tulip Siddiq, who I think is granddaughter to the former prime minister of Bangladesh.

Pulpstar · January 2015

"More than 80% of responders in national polls do not vote in marginals. "

Not in Scotland.

Morris_Dancer · January 2015

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Pulpstar, the SNP can't win that many. Yesterday's projection showed UKIP getting 10 Scottish seats

isam · January 2015

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:
Betfair most seats has moved - again - towards the blues...

Blue tied - 1.91/1.92 (y'day 1.93/1.94)
Reds ahead - 2.12/2.14 (y'day 2.10/2.12)
Exactly a week ago, Labour were still just ahead....

I predict that if Ashcroft's Scottish polling isn't as apocolyptic as suggested for Labour, a switch back is likely and who thinks a thread will then ensue!

You didn't answer re laying me 12/1 Ukip in Southend East and Rochford...

Peter_the_Punter · January 2015

AndyJS said:

audreyanne said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

antifrank said:
Odd that Lord Ashcroft finds rises in Lib Dem support (even in seats where the Lib Dems aren't in contention) when respondents are prompted to think of their constituency and Survation finds no change at all. The other figures are fairly consistent though.

NB despite all the excitement last night, the story seems to be one of Labour falling support rather than Conservative rising support. That does not seem to presage a Conservative overall majority to me. If the Tories start rising in the polls above 31%, I may revise my opinion, but not before.
A Conservative overall majority is a massive ask. To anyone interested in betting on that I'd recommend taking a look at the sorts of seats they'd need to take from Labour to do that.

You can (still) get much better odds than 5/1 on quite a few of these:

https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/could-the-conservatives-win-an-overall-majority-in-the-2015-general-election-next-year-part-2/

Hampstead will be interesting, I think the mansion tax and Greens could see the Conservatives home here.
Me too. Glenda is worried. Notwithstanding my previous posts there are some Labour London seats that are vulnerable.
Glenda is standing down. The new candidate is Tulip Siddiq, who I think is granddaughter to the former prime minister of Bangladesh.

You are very annoying, Andy.

I depend on the misapprehensions of ill-informed punters to make a living. If you keep correcting them, how am I to survive?

Stop it.

Alanbrooke · January 2015

foxinsoxuk said:
@Alanbrooke‌

Numbers are part of it but geography also matters. It is probably worth losing two Tories to the kippers in Rutland if the Tories can pick up one LD in Loughborough. Repeat across the country and get a much more effective vote distribution.

Yes that's certainly true, but is there any evidence the Tories are picking up support disproportinoately in the Marginals ?

bigjohnowls · January 2015

26.1.15 LAB 310 (316) CON 269(264) LD 31(32) UKIP 2(2) Others 38(36) (Ed is crap is PM)
Last BJESUS in brackets Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 100 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

peter_from_putney · January 2015

Peter_the_Punter said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

antifrank said:
Odd that Lord Ashcroft finds rises in Lib Dem support (even in seats where the Lib Dems aren't in contention) when respondents are prompted to think of their constituency and Survation finds no change at all. The other figures are fairly consistent though.

NB despite all the excitement last night, the story seems to be one of Labour falling support rather than Conservative rising support. That does not seem to presage a Conservative overall majority to me. If the Tories start rising in the polls above 31%, I may revise my opinion, but not before.
A Conservative overall majority is a massive ask. To anyone interested in betting on that I'd recommend taking a look at the sorts of seats they'd need to take from Labour to do that.

You can (still) get much better odds than 5/1 on quite a few of these:

https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/could-the-conservatives-win-an-overall-majority-in-the-2015-general-election-next-year-part-2/
Some quite good constituency data, I have a dabble on a few of these myself.

Hampstead will be interesting, I think the mansion tax and Greens could see the Conservatives home here.
Taffy posted something similar a few days back, Fox.

Labour are 1/4 and I offered to better the Oddschecker prices if he - or anybody else - was interested in backing anybody but Labour in Hampstead.

I wasn't exactly knocked over in the rush, but the offer still stands if you are interested.

That's telling you foxinsoxuk ..... in PtP's unfailingly polite but nevertheless unequivocal manner which party is set to win Hampstead & Kilburn. Exhibiting such strong conviction and with one of the smartest betting brains on this website, I'd keep your money in your pocket if I were you.

Alanbrooke · January 2015

JWisemann said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:
A couple of the polls yesterday had the Tories edging up to 34. Whilst I agree with antifrank that the overall driving force is the continuing Labour decline that is worth keeping an eye on.

The real question is how far Labour can fall. Labour were supposed to be assured of a much higher score than last time as a result of the red liberals who have given them a lead for most of this Parliament. Now some of them seemed to have moved on to the Greens (not back to the Lib Dems unfortunately) as they join the many other groups disillusioned by Ed.

I would expect the Tory vote to fall from the last time by 1 or 2 percent. If they are to be comfortably the largest party they need Labour to go sub 30. This is starting to look possible although there is a very long way to go. If I was betting the house on it I would still say Labour largest party with NOM. But it is getting closer.
By the time we get to the GE I'd expect the Tory vote to go up by 3-5% based on soft kippers holding their noses. Labour is drifting down and may yet go sub 30 %. However we're still on for a HP and I'd say Cons largest vote share and probably most seats.
Why would the 'soft' SNP and Green voters that have led to labour's recent modest decline not also drift back under the same logic?

They might well do, however Scotland I'd say is at present a case apart where the normal rules might not apply, and the greens may drift back but probably have more younger voters who are less likely to vote in the first place. Add in Ed's Mr Demotivator effect and imo and the forced vote works more in the Tories favour.

Pulpstar · January 2015

Morris_Dancer said:
Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Pulpstar, the SNP can't win that many. Yesterday's projection showed UKIP getting 10 Scottish seats

I hope Big John Owls isn't basing his BJESUS off a model that shows that.

Scott_P · January 2015

@DanHannanMEP: This is beyond parody.
BBC Interviewer: "How can you make yourself more popular?"
Ed Miliband: "We have a plan!" http://t.co/8q1H4uR61i

Pulpstar · January 2015

Crossover in the Pulpstar index:

CON 283
LAB 278
LIB 26
SNP 35
PC 2
UKIP 7
(NI 18)
Green 1

Seats to watch:

Dumfries & Galloway: Lab Hold (Close though)
Hallam: LD Hold
Inverness, Bairn & Strathspey - SNP Gain
Ciathness - SNP Gain
Pudsey: Con Hold
Reading West: TCTC
Sherwood: Lab Gain
Southampton Itchen: Con Hold
Thurrock: UKIP Gain
Thanet South: UKIP Gain
Torbay - Con Gain
Glasgow East - SNP Gain

UKIP Gains: Boston, Great Grimsby, Clacton, Great Yarmouth, Basildon & SE Thurrock, Thanet S, Thurrock.

Con Hold Rochester

Lab Minority
Confidence & Supply from the SNP and Lib Dems.

PM Ed still though.

foxinsoxuk · January 2015

peter_from_putney said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

antifrank said:
Odd that Lord Ashcroft finds rises in Lib Dem support (even in seats where the Lib Dems aren't in contention) when respondents are prompted to think of their constituency and Survation finds no change at all. The other figures are fairly consistent though.

NB despite all the excitement last night, the story seems to be one of Labour falling support rather than Conservative rising support. That does not seem to presage a Conservative overall majority to me. If the Tories start rising in the polls above 31%, I may revise my opinion, but not before.
A Conservative overall majority is a massive ask. To anyone interested in betting on that I'd recommend taking a look at the sorts of seats they'd need to take from Labour to do that.

You can (still) get much better odds than 5/1 on quite a few of these:

https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/could-the-conservatives-win-an-overall-majority-in-the-2015-general-election-next-year-part-2/
Some quite good constituency data, I have a dabble on a few of these myself.

Hampstead will be interesting, I think the mansion tax and Greens could see the Conservatives home here.
Taffy posted something similar a few days back, Fox.

Labour are 1/4 and I offered to better the Oddschecker prices if he - or anybody else - was interested in backing anybody but Labour in Hampstead.

I wasn't exactly knocked over in the rush, but the offer still stands if you are interested.
That's telling you foxinsoxuk ..... in PtP's unfailingly polite but nevertheless unequivocal manner which party is set to win Hampstead & Kilburn. Exhibiting such strong conviction and with one of the smartest betting brains on this website, I'd keep your money in your pocket if I were you.

I missed that post. I shall do my own research, On constituencies I am mostly making bets at low stakes, and shall stick to Shadsy and colleagues.

Is Tulip Sidique that popular? Glenda is a hard act to follow.

Pong · January 2015

Casino_Royale said:

antifrank said:
Odd that Lord Ashcroft finds rises in Lib Dem support (even in seats where the Lib Dems aren't in contention) when respondents are prompted to think of their constituency and Survation finds no change at all. The other figures are fairly consistent though.

NB despite all the excitement last night, the story seems to be one of Labour falling support rather than Conservative rising support. That does not seem to presage a Conservative overall majority to me. If the Tories start rising in the polls above 31%, I may revise my opinion, but not before.
A Conservative overall majority is a massive ask. To anyone interested in betting on that I'd recommend taking a look at the sorts of seats they'd need to take from Labour to do that.

You can (still) get much better odds than 5/1 on quite a few of these:

https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/could-the-conservatives-win-an-overall-majority-in-the-2015-general-election-next-year-part-2/

That's an interesting blogpost and quite well reasoned.

Is that your blog Casino?

JackW · January 2015

Latest ARSE 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Prediction Countdown :

30 minutes

foxinsoxuk · January 2015

Alanbrooke said:

foxinsoxuk said:
@Alanbrooke‌

Numbers are part of it but geography also matters. It is probably worth losing two Tories to the kippers in Rutland if the Tories can pick up one LD in Loughborough. Repeat across the country and get a much more effective vote distribution.
Yes that's certainly true, but is there any evidence the Tories are picking up support disproportinoately in the Marginals ?

It looks like it is working in Loughborough.

peter_from_putney · January 2015

AndyJS said:
Sky News have a projection this morning that the SNP are on course to win 53 of the 59 seats in Scotland.

If correct this would result in the LibDems losing all but one of their 11 seats and Labour losing 36 of the 41 seats they won in 2010, leaving them with a rump of 5 seats. Are Scottish cabs the same size as their London counterparts? ...... Just asking.

AndyJS · January 2015

peter_from_putney said:

AndyJS said:
Sky News have a projection this morning that the SNP are on course to win 53 of the 59 seats in Scotland.
If correct this would result in the LibDems losing all but one of their 11 seats and Labour losing 36 of the 41 seats they won in 2010, leaving them with a rump of 5 seats. Are Scottish cabs the same size as their London counterparts? ...... Just asking.

They're also predicting Labour to take 286 seats nationally which doesn't compute IMHO. They'd have to take 64 seats in England and Wales.

FrancisUrquhart · January 2015

Jesus, that BBC Breakfast interview of Ed was so soft ball they might as well let him just do a 5 min PPB...

Bill Turnball...if if if if if I may but LLLLLLLLaaabbourrrr run NHS Wales..

Ed....When Tories ran Wales, NHS a disaster.

Bill...Ok

And that is about as probing as it got.

Alanbrooke · January 2015

foxinsoxuk said:

Alanbrooke said:

foxinsoxuk said:
@Alanbrooke‌

Numbers are part of it but geography also matters. It is probably worth losing two Tories to the kippers in Rutland if the Tories can pick up one LD in Loughborough. Repeat across the country and get a much more effective vote distribution.
Yes that's certainly true, but is there any evidence the Tories are picking up support disproportinoately in the Marginals ?
It looks like it is working in Loughborough.

Is that a marginal, the Tories have a sitting MP with a 7% buffer ?

Scott_P · January 2015

@ScottyNational: Tech news : catastrophe for #45ers as Facebook goes down - 'I was unable to insult Jim Murphy for 40 minutes! I had to shout out the window'

Fenster · January 2015

Labour polling 30%, just 1% higher than in GE2010, after nearly five years of austerity under an unpopular Tory-led government. And here's the kicker - their other big rival (the Lib Dems) are in government too, so to fail to get cut-through must be extremely disappointing.

For context, if Cameron had been polling this four months out from a GE in 2010, the Tories would've got shot of him.

JackW · January 2015

@foxinsoxuk

I note Sir you scurrilously suggest the purple peril making inroads into the Grand Duchy of Rutland.

Ukip in Rutland ??

Never Never .. NEVER !!

JohnO · January 2015

Pulpstar said:
Crossover in the Pulpstar index:

CON 283
LAB 278
LIB 26
SNP 35
PC 2
UKIP 7
(NI 18)
Green 1

Seats to watch:

Dumfries & Galloway: Lab Hold (Close though)
Hallam: LD Hold
Inverness, Bairn & Strathspey - SNP Gain
Ciathness - SNP Gain
Pudsey: Con Hold
Reading West: TCTC
Sherwood: Lab Gain
Southampton Itchen: Con Hold
Thurrock: UKIP Gain
Thanet South: UKIP Gain
Torbay - Con Gain
Glasgow East - SNP Gain

UKIP Gains: Boston, Great Grimsby, Clacton, Great Yarmouth, Basildon & SE Thurrock, Thanet S, Thurrock.

Con Hold Rochester

Lab Minority
Confidence & Supply from the SNP and Lib Dems.

PM Ed still though.

Soton Itchen is currently Labour.

isam · January 2015

Isabel Hardman (@IsabelHardman)
27/01/2015 08:28
Difficult to say anything other than that Cameron is being disingenuous over the TV debates

rottenborough · January 2015

isam said:
Isabel Hardman (@IsabelHardman)
27/01/2015 08:28
Difficult to say anything other than that Cameron is being disingenuous over the TV debates

He was slipping an sliding all over the place on R4 Today a few minutes ago.

Socrates · January 2015

Cameroon entitlement:

Iain Martin ‏@iainmartin1 9m9 minutes ago
For some time No.10 infuriated/astonished by broadcasters trying to dictate terms of TV debates. But...

Luckyguy1983 · January 2015

rottenborough said:

isam said:
Isabel Hardman (@IsabelHardman)
27/01/2015 08:28
Difficult to say anything other than that Cameron is being disingenuous over the TV debates
He was slipping an sliding all over the place on R4 Today a few minutes ago.

'Played a blinder' etc.

isam · January 2015

Here is The Sunifesto

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6299665/The-Sunifesto-in-full.html

Financier · January 2015

OT

Primary Schools Standards decline in Wales.About two in three primary schools required some level of follow-up due to shortcomings.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-30951804

The NHS is being put under too much pressure dealing with self-inflicted conditions, the (Welsh) health minister has warned.

Mark Drakeford says it is having to "rescue" people from "harm that need never have happened" through too much smoking, drinking and a poor diet.

Mr Drakeford was speaking in an interview for BBC Wales, as part of a week looking at the NHS in Wales, and which also publishes a poll from ICM Research.

More than half questioned say the NHS should limit or refuse treatment for those who refuse to make lifestyle changes.

The minister said: "The NHS has a responsibility and it's my responsibility as minister to ensure the service is as good as we can make it, but there are responsibilities citizens and patients have too.

"If we want the NHS as a future to continue providing for us when something awful happens we have to do more to avoid the harms that are avoidable."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-30951809

rottenborough · January 2015

FrancisUrquhart said:
Jesus, that BBC Breakfast interview of Ed was so soft ball they might as well let him just do a 5 min PPB...

Bill Turnball...if if if if if I may but LLLLLLLLaaabbourrrr run NHS Wales..

Ed....When Tories ran Wales, NHS a disaster.

Bill...Ok

And that is about as probing as it got.

Pretty standard for BBC Breakfast. Not exactly Paxo territory. I don't watch it as most of the programme seems to be dedicated to interviewing personalities and actors who will, funnily enough, be shortly appearing in BBC dramas or documentaries, or did so last night.

peter_from_putney · January 2015

Crossover in the Pulpstar index:

CON 283
LAB 278
LIB 26
SNP 35
PC 2
UKIP 7
(NI 18)
Green 1

Your seat numbers for both Lab and Con are identical to Stephen Fisher's latest projection but elsewhere your estimates (compared with his) go LD 26 (23), SNP 35 (41), PC 2 (3), UKIP 7 (3), Greens 1 (1), N.I. 18 (18)

Socrates · January 2015

Luckyguy1983 said:

rottenborough said:

isam said:
Isabel Hardman (@IsabelHardman)
27/01/2015 08:28
Difficult to say anything other than that Cameron is being disingenuous over the TV debates
He was slipping an sliding all over the place on R4 Today a few minutes ago.
'Played a blinder' etc.

Some Tories are honest enough:

chris g @chrisg0000 · 18m 18 minutes ago
The strategy is obvious, but if Brown had tried this my fellow #tories would have screamed blue murder!

Moses_ · January 2015

Scott_P said:
@DanHannanMEP: This is beyond parody.
BBC Interviewer: "How can you make yourself more popular?"
Ed Miliband: "We have a plan!" http://t.co/8q1H4uR61i

Super!!
When is this dud going to let the rest of us know what this "plan" or even "sense of a plan" actually is? After all people are "crying out" for it so he says.

Pong · January 2015

Does anybody have any thoughts on turnout?

I'm trying to figure out whether or not there is any value in Ladbrokes or B365's odds.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/turnout-banded

Fenster · January 2015

Socrates said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rottenborough said:

isam said:
Isabel Hardman (@IsabelHardman)
27/01/2015 08:28
Difficult to say anything other than that Cameron is being disingenuous over the TV debates
He was slipping an sliding all over the place on R4 Today a few minutes ago.
'Played a blinder' etc.
Some Tories are honest enough:

chris g @chrisg0000 · 18m 18 minutes ago
The strategy is obvious, but if Brown had tried this my fellow #tories would have screamed blue murder!

Cameron must be getting advice to avoid the TV debates. I don't really understand why.

Against UKIP, Lab and Lib Dems I would've agreed - Avoid, avoid.

But now? He would fare pretty well among the leadership contenders. I know Farage is blokey and popular but there's no denying Cameron is deft and quick on his feet. I can't see him getting mullered by anybody.

rottenborough · January 2015

Moses_ said:

Scott_P said:
@DanHannanMEP: This is beyond parody.
BBC Interviewer: "How can you make yourself more popular?"
Ed Miliband: "We have a plan!" http://t.co/8q1H4uR61i
Super!!
When is this dud going to let the rest of us know what this "plan" or even "sense of a plan" actually is? After all people are "crying out" for it so he says.

Err, the manifesto?

Morris_Dancer · January 2015

Mr. Moses, worth recalling 2010 when Labour repeatedly claimed it had a 'deficit reduction plan', to which no journalist bothered to ask what it actually was.

Morris_Dancer · January 2015

Mr. Fenster, it's an opportunity for Miliband to shed the weirdness image, probably the last one prior to the election.

isam · January 2015

isam said:
Here is The Sunifesto

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6299665/The-Sunifesto-in-full.html

One of the headlines from the sun readers manifesto is that they want less political game playing and more honesty/straight answers

Meanwhile David Cameron is trying to filibuster the debates that the public want by playing self satisfied political games

isam · January 2015

Daniel Hannan (@DanHannanMEP)
27/01/2015 08:47
Hard to argue with any of this. Via @tnewtondunn @TheSunNewspaper. pic.twitter.com/FCaV8NgMRU

malcolmg · January 2015

Morris_Dancer said:
Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Pulpstar, the SNP can't win that many. Yesterday's projection showed UKIP getting 10 Scottish seats

LOL

FrancisUrquhart · January 2015

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Moses, worth recalling 2010 when Labour repeatedly claimed it had a 'deficit reduction plan', to which no journalist bothered to ask what it actually was.

If you remember what 2009/2010 really showed up was that most journalist are totally financially illiterate (and why Brown got away with things for so long). How many times did you hear them rambling on about debt when they meant deficit and vice versa.

TGOHF · January 2015

isam said:

isam said:
Here is The Sunifesto

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6299665/The-Sunifesto-in-full.html
One of the headlines from the sun readers manifesto is that they want less political game playing and more honesty/straight answers

Meanwhile David Cameron is trying to filibuster the debates that the public want by playing self satisfied political games

Amusing that the dastardly cad who is too spineless to negotiate with Europe is being castigated for playing hardball over the piffling matter of tv debates.

Remarkable.

malcolmg · January 2015

peter_from_putney said:

AndyJS said:
Sky News have a projection this morning that the SNP are on course to win 53 of the 59 seats in Scotland.
If correct this would result in the LibDems losing all but one of their 11 seats and Labour losing 36 of the 41 seats they won in 2010, leaving them with a rump of 5 seats. Are Scottish cabs the same size as their London counterparts? ...... Just asking.

We have up to 7 seaters in case they have a late surge

Morris_Dancer · January 2015

Indeed, Mr. Urquhart.

The situation hasn't really improved since.

Financier · January 2015

OT

Apols if this was mentioned last night but David Starkey had an excellent program on the history of the Magna Carta and its importance for today. (BBC2 9pm).

He ended with quotes from Lord Judge and also at the apparent decline in freedoms today due to special circumstances. Thinking about it, this a probably the first major peacetime that we have serious enemies from within since the days of Elizabeth 1.

http://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2015/jan/27/david-starkeys-magna-carta-review-history-political

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b05139m4/david-starkeys-magna-carta

Fenster · January 2015

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Fenster, it's an opportunity for Miliband to shed the weirdness image, probably the last one prior to the election.

It's also an opportunity for Plaid to whack him over the Welsh NHS (which is now frighteningly bad in places - esp A&E), for the SNP to whack him over Labour-sclerosis in Scotland and for the Greens to steal the socialist vote.

What Cameron loses to UKIP, Ed Miliband will surely lose to his left.

At this stage I'd tell him to accept. No doubt the others will then have bones to pick.

What would you advise?

JackW · January 2015

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 13th January Projection) :

Con 300 (NC) .. Lab 266 (-3) .. LibDem 34 (-2) .. SNP 22 (+3) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 5 (+2) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 26 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

Bury North - Likely Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - Likely LibDem Gain
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - TCTC (From Likely LibDem Hold)
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochill and South Perthshire - Likely SNP Gain

Changes From 13 Jan - Cornwall North moves Likely LibDem Hold to TCTC

TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

Peter_the_Punter · January 2015

foxinsoxuk said:

peter_from_putney said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

antifrank said:
Odd that Lord Ashcroft finds rises in Lib Dem support (even in seats where the Lib Dems aren't in contention) when respondents are prompted to think of their constituency and Survation finds no change at all. The other figures are fairly consistent though.

ing support. That does not seem to presage a Conservative overall majority to me. If the Tories start rising in the polls above 31%, I may revise my opinion, but not before.

https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/could-the-conservatives-win-an-overall-majority-in-the-2015-general-election-next-year-part-2/
Some quite good constituency data, I have a dabble on a few of these myself.

Hampstead will be interesting, I think the mansion tax and Greens could see the Conservatives home here.
Taffy posted something similar a few days back, Fox.

Labour are 1/4 and I offered to better the Oddschecker prices if he - or anybody else - was interested in backing anybody but Labour in Hampstead.

I wasn't exactly knocked over in the rush, but the offer still stands if you are interested.
That's telling you foxinsoxuk ..... in PtP's unfailingly polite but nevertheless unequivocal manner which party is set to win Hampstead & Kilburn. Exhibiting such strong conviction and with one of the smartest betting brains on this website, I'd keep your money in your pocket if I were you.
I missed that post. I shall do my own research, On constituencies I am mostly making bets at low stakes, and shall stick to Shadsy and colleagues.

Is Tulip Sidique that popular? Glenda is a hard act to follow.

Time to stop teasing you, Fox.

There are few constituencies I know better than Hampstead. It's not quite wall-to-wall millionaires, as some imagine. The mansions are interspersed with working class estates, even in the posher bits around the High Street and Station. South End green is pretty mixed and of course darkest Kilburn is classic Labour territory.

Glenda is popular, but her successor has been well chosen and I do not foresee many votes lost to the personal factor. The mansion tax is of course complete tosh, but it costs few votes. Leakage to the Greens would be more of a factor, but then it's offset by the recovery of votes that went LD at the last GE.

I think you are right to look around for bets on Tories at around 5/1. There must be quite a bit of value around now. I'd pass on Hampstead though if I were you. If the Blues take it, you are looking at a Tory Overall Majority, and probably quite a big one at that, so other bets will pay more.

Morris_Dancer · January 2015

Mr. Fenster, hard to say, given I don't want the debates to occur.

GIN1138 · January 2015

JackW said:
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 13th January Projection) :

Con 300 (NC) .. Lab 266 (-3) .. LibDem 34 (-2) .. SNP 22 (+3) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 5 (+2) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 26 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

Bury North - Likely Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - Likely LibDem Gain
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - TCTC (From Likely LibDem Hold)
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochill and South Perthshire - Likely SNP Gain

Changes From 13 Jan - Cornwall North moves Likely LibDem Hold to TCTC

TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

That's a nice ARSE.

isam · January 2015

TGOHF said:

isam said:

isam said:
Here is The Sunifesto

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6299665/The-Sunifesto-in-full.html
One of the headlines from the sun readers manifesto is that they want less political game playing and more honesty/straight answers

Meanwhile David Cameron is trying to filibuster the debates that the public want by playing self satisfied political games
Amusing that the dastardly cad who is too spineless to negotiate with Europe is being castigated for playing hardball over the piffling matter of tv debates.

Remarkable.

If say it was unsurprising in the extreme

Casino_Royale · January 2015

Pong said:

Casino_Royale said:

antifrank said:
Odd that Lord Ashcroft finds rises in Lib Dem support (even in seats where the Lib Dems aren't in contention) when respondents are prompted to think of their constituency and Survation finds no change at all. The other figures are fairly consistent though.

NB despite all the excitement last night, the story seems to be one of Labour falling support rather than Conservative rising support. That does not seem to presage a Conservative overall majority to me. If the Tories start rising in the polls above 31%, I may revise my opinion, but not before.
A Conservative overall majority is a massive ask. To anyone interested in betting on that I'd recommend taking a look at the sorts of seats they'd need to take from Labour to do that.

You can (still) get much better odds than 5/1 on quite a few of these:

https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/could-the-conservatives-win-an-overall-majority-in-the-2015-general-election-next-year-part-2/
That's an interesting blogpost and quite well reasoned.

Is that your blog Casino?

Thank you. Yes it is.

Indigo · January 2015

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/01/27/survation-test-a-constituency-specific-question-in-its-new-mirror-poll-and-get-a-slightly-different-outcome/

Independent Greece and Syriza have little in common other than their view on the bailout, Independent Greece sits in the same group as the Tories in the European Parliament. That Alexis Tsipras has chosen to do a deal with them rather than the leftist Potami who favour a less confrontational approach to the troika is telling. It shows that he has no intention of blinking first in his negations with the IMF, the rest of the European Union, the European Central Bank and the European Commission

Time to be in dollars or pounds ?

JackW · January 2015

GIN1138 said:

JackW said:
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 13th January Projection) :

Con 300 (NC) .. Lab 266 (-3) .. LibDem 34 (-2) .. SNP 22 (+3) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 5 (+2) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 26 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

Bury North - Likely Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - Likely LibDem Gain
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - TCTC (From Likely LibDem Hold)
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochill and South Perthshire - Likely SNP Gain

Changes From 13 Jan - Cornwall North moves Likely LibDem Hold to TCTC

TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
That's a nice ARSE.

Many has so commented and remarkably astute they are too.

audreyanne · January 2015

Fenster said:
Labour polling 30%, just 1% higher than in GE2010, after nearly five years of austerity under an unpopular Tory-led government. And here's the kicker - their other big rival (the Lib Dems) are in government too, so to fail to get cut-through must be extremely disappointing.

For context, if Cameron had been polling this four months out from a GE in 2010, the Tories would've got shot of him.

Absolutely. There are rich pickings to be had over the current Labour / LibDem shares, although sadly OGH seems to be avoiding them.

Pong said:

Casino_Royale said:

antifrank said:
A Conservative overall majority is a massive ask. To anyone interested in betting on that I'd recommend taking a look at the sorts of seats they'd need to take from Labour to do that.

You can (still) get much better odds than 5/1 on quite a few of these:

https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/could-the-conservatives-win-an-overall-majority-in-the-2015-general-election-next-year-part-2/
That's an interesting blogpost and quite well reasoned.

Is that your blog Casino?

It's looking dated: nearly 3 months, and many polls, later ...

AndyJS said:

audreyanne said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

antifrank said:
A Conservative overall majority is a massive ask. To anyone interested in betting on that I'd recommend taking a look at the sorts of seats they'd need to take from Labour to do that.

You can (still) get much better odds than 5/1 on quite a few of these:

https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/could-the-conservatives-win-an-overall-majority-in-the-2015-general-election-next-year-part-2/

Hampstead will be interesting, I think the mansion tax and Greens could see the Conservatives home here.
Me too. Glenda is worried. Notwithstanding my previous posts there are some Labour London seats that are vulnerable.
Glenda is standing down. The new candidate is Tulip Siddiq, who I think is granddaughter to the former prime minister of Bangladesh.

Yes, sorry, she is indeed. She's worried about the seat being lost and I think it's a real possibility. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/02/glenda-jackson-london-labour-mps-opposed-mansion-tax

audreyanne · January 2015

Moses_ said:

Scott_P said:
@DanHannanMEP: This is beyond parody.
BBC Interviewer: "How can you make yourself more popular?"
Ed Miliband: "We have a plan!" http://t.co/8q1H4uR61i
Super!!
When is this dud going to let the rest of us know what this "plan" or even "sense of a plan" actually is? After all people are "crying out" for it so he says.

He really is a disaster. And, end of the day folks, I think we need to come back to that. Obvious duds don't get elected Prime Minister.

Peter_the_Punter · January 2015

Pong said:
Does anybody have any thoughts on turnout?

I'm trying to figure out whether or not there is any value in Ladbrokes or B365's odds.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/turnout-banded

I'm definitely a low-turnout man, Pong, but I generally avoid these 'banded' markets.

They are very helpful for Shadsy's bonus.

Scott_P · January 2015

John Swinney’s decision to introduce a 10 per cent tax on Scotland’s middle classes moving home appears to have backfired after he admitted it will not raise as much as he originally predicted.

The Deputy First Minister warned the Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) – his replacement for Stamp Duty – may not generate what he thought in its first year thanks to the “behavioural response” from buyers wanting to keep their tax bill down.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/11370758/John-Swinney-admits-new-Scottish-property-tax-shortfall.html

JackW · January 2015

Peter_the_Punter said:

Pong said:
Does anybody have any thoughts on turnout?

I'm trying to figure out whether or not there is any value in Ladbrokes or B365's odds.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/turnout-banded
I'm definitely a low-turnout man, Pong, but I generally avoid these 'banded' markets.

They are very helpful for Shadsy's bonus.

I understand one of your pins finally landed on a winning nag.

Congratulations.

Pulpstar · January 2015

Peter_the_Punter said:

Pong said:
Does anybody have any thoughts on turnout?

I'm trying to figure out whether or not there is any value in Ladbrokes or B365's odds.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/turnout-banded
I'm definitely a low-turnout man, Pong, but I generally avoid these 'banded' markets.

They are very helpful for Shadsy's bonus.

Under, Rochester & Strood ^_~

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