Odd that Lord Ashcroft finds rises in Lib Dem support (even in seats where the Lib Dems aren't in contention) when respondents are prompted to think of their constituency and Survation finds no change at all. The other figures are fairly consistent though.
NB despite all the excitement last night, the story seems to be one of Labour falling support rather than Conservative rising support. That does not seem to presage a Conservative overall majority to me. If the Tories start rising in the polls above 31%, I may revise my opinion, but not before.
The Ashcroft polls are for individual constituencies, rather than a general question. Conservatives with most seats, but no majority, is how I see it.
John Swinney’s decision to introduce a 10 per cent tax on Scotland’s middle classes moving home appears to have backfired after he admitted it will not raise as much as he originally predicted.
The Deputy First Minister warned the Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) – his replacement for Stamp Duty – may not generate what he thought in its first year thanks to the “behavioural response” from buyers wanting to keep their tax bill down.
Amusingly all those purchases brought forward will flow into Westminster coffers - Swinney has transferred money from Holyrood to London by his actions. What a buffoon.
Jesus, that BBC Breakfast interview of Ed was so soft ball they might as well let him just do a 5 min PPB...
Bill Turnball...if if if if if I may but LLLLLLLLaaabbourrrr run NHS Wales..
Ed....When Tories ran Wales, NHS a disaster.
Bill...Ok
And that is about as probing as it got.
They tried it on R4 as well.
The response was "You're falling into the Government's trap. Wales is totally different to England. All the population is clustered on the South Coast"
Response: er. Ok.
(As an aside, I would have thought a clustered population would make it easier to manage the bulk of service, although obviously there would be specific challenges related to the scattered people)
One of the headlines from the sun readers manifesto is that they want less political game playing and more honesty/straight answers
Meanwhile David Cameron is trying to filibuster the debates that the public want by playing self satisfied political games
Amusing that the dastardly cad who is too spineless to negotiate with Europe is being castigated for playing hardball over the piffling matter of tv debates.
Remarkable.
You see it as "playing hardball". Most people see it as pathetic cowardice.
One of the headlines from the sun readers manifesto is that they want less political game playing and more honesty/straight answers
Who can argue with that? Of course, it's double-speak. What sun readers really want is the perception of honesty from their politicians. The easiest way to achieve that is to stop buying the sun.
It's cognitive dissonance.
Like wanting all the paedos locked up while simultaneously sexualising young girls. It's a kind of psychological masochism thing that the sun (and daily mail) exploits very effectively.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 13th January Projection) :
Con 300 (NC) .. Lab 266 (-3) .. LibDem 34 (-2) .. SNP 22 (+3) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 5 (+2) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 26 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
It's interesting to note that although Jack has one of the lowest forecasts for Labour seats, i.e. 266, with him expecting the SNP to win only 22 seats in Scotland, compared with a total of between 32 - 41 seats as forecast by Elections etc, Election Forecast and indeed Sporting Index. Were they to be proved correct North of the Border, this would mean Labour losing between a further 8-16 seats approximately, leaving them even further adrift of the Tories.
Bury North: Lab gain Watford: Con hold Torbay: LD hold Reading West: Con hold Cornwall North: LD hold S'ton Itchen: Lab hold
17/06/2014 Single (Win) 1 £ 100.00 Next General Election Constituency Betting Seat Winner - Basingstoke Conservatives 1/6 Pending
Is this one looking safe ?
UKIP were getting excited about Basingstoke when Maria Miller was experiencing problems. I think it's still safe for the Tories.
@Antifrank tipped it up at the time - "This should be more like 1-15" were his words... the lesson from Basingstoke is that if a minister is having a wobble it can produce good odds in their seat.
One of the headlines from the sun readers manifesto is that they want less political game playing and more honesty/straight answers
Meanwhile David Cameron is trying to filibuster the debates that the public want by playing self satisfied political games
Amusing that the dastardly cad who is too spineless to negotiate with Europe is being castigated for playing hardball over the piffling matter of tv debates.
Remarkable.
You see it as "playing hardball". Most people see it as pathetic cowardice.
Are the greens invited to the debates ? Yes or No ?
The Lorelei of the Left - will they lure the two Eds to their doom?
What Greek politics teaches the Labour party: there is an alternative Insisting on Tina, ‘there is no alternative’, brought down the once mighty Pasok. It could do the same in the UK
A couple of the polls yesterday had the Tories edging up to 34. Whilst I agree with antifrank that the overall driving force is the continuing Labour decline that is worth keeping an eye on.
The real question is how far Labour can fall. Labour were supposed to be assured of a much higher score than last time as a result of the red liberals who have given them a lead for most of this Parliament. Now some of them seemed to have moved on to the Greens (not back to the Lib Dems unfortunately) as they join the many other groups disillusioned by Ed.
I would expect the Tory vote to fall from the last time by 1 or 2 percent. If they are to be comfortably the largest party they need Labour to go sub 30. This is starting to look possible although there is a very long way to go. If I was betting the house on it I would still say Labour largest party with NOM. But it is getting closer.
By the time we get to the GE I'd expect the Tory vote to go up by 3-5% based on soft kippers holding their noses. Labour is drifting down and may yet go sub 30 %. However we're still on for a HP and I'd say Cons largest vote share and probably most seats.
I agree the tories are favourite to get the most votes. Not so sure about the most seats though. So much depends on Scotland for that.
I seem to recall that Mike has a bet Tories most votes, Labour most seats. I have a concern that we might be hearing about that for as long as we have been about Obama.
Really the Tories should be walking this election,
Not really. Several years of austerity and a coalition government are not an obvious springboard for outright victory. That the Conservatives on latest polling are within a shout of clear blue water says more about Labour and the LibDems than what is going on to their right.
Any old excuse to cover up failure. There's little doubt that if Cameron had treated his natural consitituency with a bit more respect instead of playing to the gallery he'd be starting this campaign from a much higher vote share.
Change in gross domestic product (GDP) is the main indicator of economic growth. GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.5% in Q4 2014 compared with growth of 0.7% in Q3 2014.
Output increased in two of the four main industrial groupings within the economy in Q4 2014. In order of their contribution, output increased by 0.8% in services and 1.3% in agriculture. In contrast, output decreased by 1.8% in construction and 0.1% in production.
GDP was 2.7% higher in Q4 2014 compared with the same quarter a year ago. GDP in 2014 as a whole was up 2.6% on 2013.
In Q4 2014 GDP was estimated to have been 3.4% higher than the pre-economic downturn peak of Q1 2008. From the peak in Q1 2008 to the trough in Q2 2009, the economy shrank by 6.0%.
Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep) 27/01/2015 09:12 Cracking idea for TV debate Cam may go for: Just him with Amjad to represent all other parties, because he has belonged to so many of them!
Q. In what respect is OGH like Sporting Index this morning?
A. Both have chosen to ignore the fact that three pollsters have all shown the Tories taking the lead in terms of GE2015 VI. In Sporting's case, this means maintaining both Labour and the Conservatives on the same seat spreads as applied yesterday, i.e. 279 - 285.
Ed_Miliband: We’ve been catching up with the management at George Eliot Hospital about their concerns over the future of the NHS.
Jeremy Hunt: @Ed_Miliband, George Eliot great eg of @LabourHealth danger; high death rates ignored under Lab, special measures &turnaround under this Gov
One of the headlines from the sun readers manifesto is that they want less political game playing and more honesty/straight answers
Who can argue with that? Of course, it's double-speak. What sun readers really want is the perception of honesty from their politicians. The easiest way to achieve that is to stop buying the sun.
It's cognitive dissonance.
Like wanting all the paedos locked up while simultaneously sexualising young girls. It's a kind of psychological masochism thing that the sun (and daily mail) exploits very effectively.
I've had some success on the doorstep with people who say we're all lobby fodder and just vote on party lines, I say that I'm prepared to defy the whips if I disagree with them but add "But I'll defy you too if you don't persuade me - I'll listen to you, think about it, discuss it with you, and then either vote as you want or explain why I won't". People are initially taken aback but on the whole they quite like it because it breaks through the miasma of standard replies. I did get one person who said it was my duty to vote as constituents want, regardless of whether I agreed with it - but only one.
The Lorelei of the Left - will they lure the two Eds to their doom?
What Greek politics teaches the Labour party: there is an alternative Insisting on Tina, ‘there is no alternative’, brought down the once mighty Pasok. It could do the same in the UK
There's a lot of good, meaty stuff in there. But the ending
"Just like Pasok, Labour has spent decades under the influence of Tina: the idea that “there is no alternative”, either in how to run an economy or how to run a social democratic party. The rise of Syriza shows how that rule can be broken. "
Syriza have not shown that they can run an economy. They have a great opportunity to show that there really IS no alternative.
Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep) 27/01/2015 09:12 Cracking idea for TV debate Cam may go for: Just him with Amjad to represent all other parties, because he has belonged to so many of them!
Well, it beats explaining where Nigel's £3billion for the NHS is coming from......(that's his job, isn't it?
Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep) 27/01/2015 09:12 Cracking idea for TV debate Cam may go for: Just him with Amjad to represent all other parties, because he has belonged to so many of them!
Cam really is the only show in town - Kippers just can't stop talking about him.
Anyone else listen to the Burnham interview on R4 Today this morning with Sarah Montague? Burnham came close to a car crash interview, but on balance IMHO he got away with it. Montague is not a renowned rotweiller but had clearly invested some time in preparing for it and was well read on the Burnham proposals and the NHS Wales comparisons. It went along these lines. (Paraphrased) Burnham = the problem with A&E is caused by bed blocking older people and the tory cuts to social care which needs a single joined up service to fix. Montague = In NHS Wales under Labour they have this single service that you are recommending yet they have a worse A&E service than NHS England. Burnham = Wales is different and I am here to talk about NHS England not Wales. The cancer service is better in Wales.
Labour polling 30%, just 1% higher than in GE2010, after nearly five years of austerity under an unpopular Tory-led government. And here's the kicker - their other big rival (the Lib Dems) are in government too, so to fail to get cut-through must be extremely disappointing.
For context, if Cameron had been polling this four months out from a GE in 2010, the Tories would've got shot of him.
Absolutely. There are rich pickings to be had over the current Labour / LibDem shares, although sadly OGH seems to be avoiding them.
A Conservative overall majority is a massive ask. To anyone interested in betting on that I'd recommend taking a look at the sorts of seats they'd need to take from Labour to do that.
You can (still) get much better odds than 5/1 on quite a few of these:
A Conservative overall majority is a massive ask. To anyone interested in betting on that I'd recommend taking a look at the sorts of seats they'd need to take from Labour to do that.
You can (still) get much better odds than 5/1 on quite a few of these:
Weird Ed told a definitely true story in his interview this morning about two hospital workers he'd spoken to. He asked them to say what emotion they experienced when they thought about the NHS and they both said "fear, fearful" in unison. Thank god he's here to save it.
Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep) 27/01/2015 09:12 Cracking idea for TV debate Cam may go for: Just him with Amjad to represent all other parties, because he has belonged to so many of them!
Cam really is the only show in town - Kippers just can't stop talking about him.
So Swinney "kept quiet" a change that he announced in a parliamentary statement!
It is an evens bet as to whether you know so little about Scottish politics because you just don't like the SNP or alternatively because you believe the total tripe which appears in the Daily Telegraph.
Posters from south of the borde should understand the the Telgraph branch office in Scotland is not just right wing and bigoted like their English colleagues but right wing , bigoted and makes things up. That is to say it is not a real newspaper like the English edition but a propaganda sheet; a plaything of its three or so employees.
The Lorelei of the Left - will they lure the two Eds to their doom?
What Greek politics teaches the Labour party: there is an alternative Insisting on Tina, ‘there is no alternative’, brought down the once mighty Pasok. It could do the same in the UK
There's a lot of good, meaty stuff in there. But the ending
"Just like Pasok, Labour has spent decades under the influence of Tina: the idea that “there is no alternative”, either in how to run an economy or how to run a social democratic party. The rise of Syriza shows how that rule can be broken. "
Syriza have not shown that they can run an economy. They have a great opportunity to show that there really IS no alternative.
Agree its persuasively written.
To me the question is of 'the dog that did not bark' - when Hollande was elected in France promising to 'end austerity' old ladies were trampled underfoot in Ed's rush to get the Eurostar to Paris and stand shoulder to shoulder with Comrade Hollande.
Under a similar platform the Syriza election has been met with a deathly silence, other than a whine about Cameron 'playing politics' about, er 'politics'.......
Know any bookies that may offer 2016 Un De Sceaux Queen Mother Champion Chase odds ?
If there's nothing on Oddschecker, try ringing Star Sports.
If you don't have an account with Star, I can recommend them. Their odds are not great, but they will take a bet, and are unfailingly helpful and courteous.
Given that it is construction output that has dragged down the overall figure I think these will be revised upwards over time.
Sorry, I don't follow, please explain.
ONS measurement of constructions is notoriously poor, taking the first estimate only in 2013 would have resulted in a 5% contraction in the industry, over time that was revised up to around 3% growth YoY. They haven't figured out how to reliably collect data on construction output in such a short period of time, I know a lot of people would just prefer it to be excluded from the preliminary figures and just added to the final figure which will be released three months down the line. Our "triple dip" was almost entirely down to this ONS bungling of construction figures. The nation almost talked itself into a very real recession because of it.
Posters from south of the borde should understand the the Telgraph branch office in Scotland is not just right wing and bigoted like their English colleagues but right wing , bigoted and makes things up.
Independent Greece and Syriza have little in common other than their view on the bailout, Independent Greece sits in the same group as the Tories in the European Parliament. That Alexis Tsipras has chosen to do a deal with them rather than the leftist Potami who favour a less confrontational approach to the troika is telling. It shows that he has no intention of blinking first in his negations with the IMF, the rest of the European Union, the European Central Bank and the European Commission
Time to be in dollars or pounds ?
Ed Conway in the Times points out why Greece is in a mess. The country’s legal code is riddled with anti-competitive regulations. Unwilling to scrap supply-side reforms and burn the red tape. It remains deeply uncompetitive. It has spent much of the past decade substituting debt for productive economic growth. THe new government actually supports these uncompetitive regulations. And because it wants to stay in the Euro means there is no way out - given that other countries are not going to make themselves as uncompetitive as Greece if they can help it.
Given that it is construction output that has dragged down the overall figure I think these will be revised upwards over time.
Sorry, I don't follow, please explain.
ONS measurement of constructions is notoriously poor, taking the first estimate only in 2013 would have resulted in a 5% contraction in the industry, over time that was revised up to around 3% growth YoY. They haven't figured out how to reliably collect data on construction output in such a short period of time, I know a lot of people would just prefer it to be excluded from the preliminary figures and just added to the final figure which will be released three months down the line. Our "triple dip" was almost entirely down to this ONS bungling of construction figures. The nation almost talked itself into a very real recession because of it.
Q. In what respect is OGH like Sporting Index this morning?
A. Both have chosen to ignore the fact that three pollsters have all shown the Tories taking the lead in terms of GE2015 VI. In Sporting's case, this means maintaining both Labour and the Conservatives on the same seat spreads as applied yesterday, i.e. 279 - 285.
Except that all the polls were covered in full and the SPIN prices broadly represent what punters are doing. If there's a big move to back the Tories and sell LAB then you'll see it. Spread markets move in response to money.
Remember that anything less than an 11.4% CON lead in England means that LAB is gaining blue seats.
Know any bookies that may offer 2016 Un De Sceaux Queen Mother Champion Chase odds ?
If there's nothing on Oddschecker, try ringing Star Sports.
If you don't have an account with Star, I can recommend them. Their odds are not great, but they will take a bet, and are unfailingly helpful and courteous.
Kicking myself with Un De Sceaux - been following him for yonks, must have missed when he was announced for the Arkle (Mullins horse so could have kept hurdling etc), and now he's far too short to back there. Missed the 8-11 in that three horse Irish race too which I'd have got on.
Back at the start of October the Tories had three consecutive YouGov leads - something they haven't achieved since. If we get such a pattern now then you could start to see movement in the markets.
Back at the start of October the Tories had three consecutive YouGov leads - something they haven't achieved since. If we get such a pattern now then you could start to see movement in the markets.
I still think Conservative-minded punters get the blue tinted specs on far too readily to good news in the polls - Conservative majority was far too short for yonks, and a big lay back in 2012.
So Swinney "kept quiet" a change that he announced in a parliamentary statement!
It is an evens bet as to whether you know so little about Scottish politics because you just don't like the SNP or alternatively because you believe the total tripe which appears in the Daily Telegraph.
Posters from south of the borde should understand the the Telgraph branch office in Scotland is not just right wing and bigoted like their English colleagues but right wing , bigoted and makes things up. That is to say it is not a real newspaper like the English edition but a propaganda sheet; a plaything of its three or so employees.
Scotslass - as soon as the Autumn statement was announced it was plain that the SNP would have to row back on their tax hammer on the Scottish middle class - the Nats said it was a "non issue" - but now their position has collapsed and Swinney's tail is between his legs.
Not only that but he has unpatriotically deprived Holyrood of revenue by being undercut by GO - as loyal citizens of Scotland rush to move house whilst under the benign Conservative tax regime and before the pernicious SNP tax hammer comes into force.
These are the facts - pointing them out is not "bigotted"
Back at the start of October the Tories had three consecutive YouGov leads - something they haven't achieved since. If we get such a pattern now then you could start to see movement in the markets.
Bookies pension funds are mugs overreacting to the last thing that happened
Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep) 27/01/2015 09:12 Cracking idea for TV debate Cam may go for: Just him with Amjad to represent all other parties, because he has belonged to so many of them!
Cam really is the only show in town - Kippers just can't stop talking about him.
Until UKIP actually produce a manifesto, that's what Kippers are happiest whining about.
Though with Farage's U turning and procrastination, they might be waiting a while.
Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep) 27/01/2015 09:12 Cracking idea for TV debate Cam may go for: Just him with Amjad to represent all other parties, because he has belonged to so many of them!
Cam really is the only show in town - Kippers just can't stop talking about him.
Until UKIP actually produce a manifesto, that's what Kippers are happiest whining about.
Though with Farage's U turning and procrastination, they might be waiting a while.
Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep) 27/01/2015 09:12 Cracking idea for TV debate Cam may go for: Just him with Amjad to represent all other parties, because he has belonged to so many of them!
Cam really is the only show in town - Kippers just can't stop talking about him.
Though with Farage's U turning and procrastination, they might be waiting a while.
Has O'Flynn explained yet where Nigel's NHS £3billion is coming from? Or does he limit himself to talking about their former MEP who they reckoned was a baddun 7 months ago?
Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep) 27/01/2015 09:12 Cracking idea for TV debate Cam may go for: Just him with Amjad to represent all other parties, because he has belonged to so many of them!
Cam really is the only show in town - Kippers just can't stop talking about him.
Until UKIP actually produce a manifesto, that's what Kippers are happiest whining about.
Though with Farage's U turning and procrastination, they might be waiting a while.
UKIP was always likely to implode once it produced actual policies rather than being NOTA. David Cameron could have made sport of that in the debates, had he not taken aim at his own foot.
Has O'Flynn explained yet where Nigel's NHS £3billion is coming from? Or does he limit himself to talking about their former MEP who they reckoned was a baddun 7 months ago?
@iainmartin1: UKIP to fund £3bn for NHS "partly by clawing back money from health tourists." That old standby, from list headed "magic sources of money"
Back at the start of October the Tories had three consecutive YouGov leads - something they haven't achieved since. If we get such a pattern now then you could start to see movement in the markets.
I still think Conservative-minded punters get the blue tinted specs on far too readily to good news in the polls - Conservative majority was far too short for yonks, and a big lay back in 2012.
Yep.
Ed may be crap, but he's less awful than Gordon. That's Gordon who substantially outperformed the betting markets.
I'll happily bet that the tories will win less seats, and Labour will win more than the mid-point of the Sporting Index price at 10pm the night before the election - if any reputable punter is up for it?
The Sunday Times had an article this week on the news that the proportion of female MPs may reach 25% in May. Trouble is, the percentage is already 23%, so it's not much of a story.
Has O'Flynn explained yet where Nigel's NHS £3billion is coming from? Or does he limit himself to talking about their former MEP who they reckoned was a baddun 7 months ago?
@iainmartin1: UKIP to fund £3bn for NHS "partly by clawing back money from health tourists." That old standby, from list headed "magic sources of money"
Well, here's one thing they're clear on!
Good for Douglas Carswell:
@DouglasCarswellUKIP voted for fracking. All establishment parties have rolled over to the wind / renewable lobby. Rent seekers wanting corporate subsidy
Bury North: Lab gain Watford: Con hold Torbay: LD hold Reading West: Con hold Cornwall North: LD hold S'ton Itchen: Lab hold Great Yarmouth: UKIP gain
I will be footslogging in Torbay during the campaign so will post updates. But if the movement from LD to UKIP happens there like it is happening elsewhere in the SW, Tories should be in with a good shout....
Jesus, that BBC Breakfast interview of Ed was so soft ball they might as well let him just do a 5 min PPB...
Bill Turnball...if if if if if I may but LLLLLLLLaaabbourrrr run NHS Wales..
Ed....When Tories ran Wales, NHS a disaster.
Bill...Ok
And that is about as probing as it got.
Pretty standard for BBC Breakfast. Not exactly Paxo territory. I don't watch it as most of the programme seems to be dedicated to interviewing personalities and actors who will, funnily enough, be shortly appearing in BBC dramas or documentaries, or did so last night.
Sorry but you are confusing that with the One Show.
Has O'Flynn explained yet where Nigel's NHS £3billion is coming from? Or does he limit himself to talking about their former MEP who they reckoned was a baddun 7 months ago?
@iainmartin1: UKIP to fund £3bn for NHS "partly by clawing back money from health tourists." That old standby, from list headed "magic sources of money"
If even biased research shows immigrants cost us 120bn every decade, cracking down on immigration would enable financing of both tax cuts and debt reduction, all whilst improving public service provision for natives.
Has O'Flynn explained yet where Nigel's NHS £3billion is coming from? Or does he limit himself to talking about their former MEP who they reckoned was a baddun 7 months ago?
@iainmartin1: UKIP to fund £3bn for NHS "partly by clawing back money from health tourists." That old standby, from list headed "magic sources of money"
Well, here's one thing they're clear on!
Good for Douglas Carswell:
@DouglasCarswellUKIP voted for fracking. All establishment parties have rolled over to the wind / renewable lobby. Rent seekers wanting corporate subsidy
Support for Fracking is an obvious vote loser for UKIP, certainly in parts of southern England. Perhaps Tapestry was right for once?
Has O'Flynn explained yet where Nigel's NHS £3billion is coming from? Or does he limit himself to talking about their former MEP who they reckoned was a baddun 7 months ago?
@iainmartin1: UKIP to fund £3bn for NHS "partly by clawing back money from health tourists." That old standby, from list headed "magic sources of money"
Mark Reckless @MarkReckless · 11m11 minutes ago @iainmartin1 It is £5bn more for NHS, £3bn from EU budget plus £2bn by requiring new migrants to take out NHS-approved insurance for 5 years
Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep) 27/01/2015 09:12 Cracking idea for TV debate Cam may go for: Just him with Amjad to represent all other parties, because he has belonged to so many of them!
Cam really is the only show in town - Kippers just can't stop talking about him.
Until UKIP actually produce a manifesto, that's what Kippers are happiest whining about.
Though with Farage's U turning and procrastination, they might be waiting a while.
Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep) 27/01/2015 09:12 Cracking idea for TV debate Cam may go for: Just him with Amjad to represent all other parties, because he has belonged to so many of them!
Cam really is the only show in town - Kippers just can't stop talking about him.
Though with Farage's U turning and procrastination, they might be waiting a while.
Has O'Flynn explained yet where Nigel's NHS £3billion is coming from? Or does he limit himself to talking about their former MEP who they reckoned was a baddun 7 months ago?
Farage himself has already said it was from the EU membership fee, didn't he?
The annual figure is the best since 2007, before the recession, and indicates that the UK is likely to have been the world's fastest growing major economy last year.
Has O'Flynn explained yet where Nigel's NHS £3billion is coming from? Or does he limit himself to talking about their former MEP who they reckoned was a baddun 7 months ago?
@iainmartin1: UKIP to fund £3bn for NHS "partly by clawing back money from health tourists." That old standby, from list headed "magic sources of money"
Well, here's one thing they're clear on!
Good for Douglas Carswell:
@DouglasCarswellUKIP voted for fracking. All establishment parties have rolled over to the wind / renewable lobby. Rent seekers wanting corporate subsidy
Support for Fracking is an obvious vote loser for UKIP, certainly in parts of southern England. Perhaps Tapestry was right for once?
Not as big a vote loser as sitting in the dark, remembering the good old days when you could post on PB.
One of the headlines from the sun readers manifesto is that they want less political game playing and more honesty/straight answers
Meanwhile David Cameron is trying to filibuster the debates that the public want by playing self satisfied political games
Amusing that the dastardly cad who is too spineless to negotiate with Europe is being castigated for playing hardball over the piffling matter of tv debates.
Remarkable.
You really don't get how voters can think politicians should be tough in international negotiations but honest with voters?
Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep) 27/01/2015 09:12 Cracking idea for TV debate Cam may go for: Just him with Amjad to represent all other parties, because he has belonged to so many of them!
Cam really is the only show in town - Kippers just can't stop talking about him.
Though with Farage's U turning and procrastination, they might be waiting a while.
Has O'Flynn explained yet where Nigel's NHS £3billion is coming from? Or does he limit himself to talking about their former MEP who they reckoned was a baddun 7 months ago?
Farage himself has already said it was from the EU membership fee, didn't he?
But O'Flynn had spent that on tax cuts already......
The party's economic spokesman Patrick O'Flynn has suggested gains from leaving the EU and cutting the aid budget would help.
But he 'spent' that money when he unveiled UKIP's plan to increase the personal allowance and cut income tax at the party conference.
Bury North: Lab gain Watford: Con hold Torbay: LD hold Reading West: Con hold Cornwall North: LD hold S'ton Itchen: Lab hold Great Yarmouth: UKIP gain
I will be footslogging in Torbay during the campaign so will post updates. But if the movement from LD to UKIP happens there like it is happening elsewhere in the SW, Tories should be in with a good shout....
Good to hear, Kevin Foster is an excellent PPC and I think the people of Torbay will have an excellent MP whether they chose to remain with Adrian Sanders or go for Kevin.
Sky News have a projection this morning that the SNP are on course to win 53 of the 59 seats in Scotland.
If correct this would result in the LibDems losing all but one of their 11 seats and Labour losing 36 of the 41 seats they won in 2010, leaving them with a rump of 5 seats. Are Scottish cabs the same size as their London counterparts? ...... Just asking.
It would also mean that people who have been Labour voters for years have instantly lost interest in the idea of the Labour party forming a government in the UK. Where is the coherent explanation for that?
I see Ed is banging on about the "scandal" of 15 min slots for Home Care visits. Is anybody going to ask him under which government that became the standard? I will give you a hint....not the current one.
And if he thinks 5000 new home care workers will solve it...which he can't afford, it won't, and remember that a lot of home care is now run privately (again under the last government this became much more common, but of course Labour are totally against private sector in healthcare)...so is he going to pay the private companies to take on more staff? Or is this just for those that get council run services, meaning a 2 tier system? And what happens if councils can't afford it?
Has O'Flynn explained yet where Nigel's NHS £3billion is coming from? Or does he limit himself to talking about their former MEP who they reckoned was a baddun 7 months ago?
@iainmartin1: UKIP to fund £3bn for NHS "partly by clawing back money from health tourists." That old standby, from list headed "magic sources of money"
Mark Reckless @MarkReckless · 11m11 minutes ago @iainmartin1 It is £5bn more for NHS, £3bn from EU budget plus £2bn by requiring new migrants to take out NHS-approved insurance for 5 years
So no tax cuts or increased personal allowances as promised by O'Flynn at the conference then?
Brave - 'We're scrapping tax cuts in favour of NHS spending'
One of the headlines from the sun readers manifesto is that they want less political game playing and more honesty/straight answers
Meanwhile David Cameron is trying to filibuster the debates that the public want by playing self satisfied political games
Amusing that the dastardly cad who is too spineless to negotiate with Europe is being castigated for playing hardball over the piffling matter of tv debates.
Remarkable.
You really don't get how voters can think politicians should be tough in international negotiations but honest with voters?
But the negotiations arent with the voters - they are with Farage and Ed. Dur...
So Swinney "kept quiet" a change that he announced in a parliamentary statement!
It is an evens bet as to whether you know so little about Scottish politics because you just don't like the SNP or alternatively because you believe the total tripe which appears in the Daily Telegraph.
Posters from south of the borde should understand the the Telgraph branch office in Scotland is not just right wing and bigoted like their English colleagues but right wing , bigoted and makes things up. That is to say it is not a real newspaper like the English edition but a propaganda sheet; a plaything of its three or so employees.
Scotslass - as soon as the Autumn statement was announced it was plain that the SNP would have to row back on their tax hammer on the Scottish middle class - the Nats said it was a "non issue" - but now their position has collapsed and Swinney's tail is between his legs.
Not only that but he has unpatriotically deprived Holyrood of revenue by being undercut by GO - as loyal citizens of Scotland rush to move house whilst under the benign Conservative tax regime and before the pernicious SNP tax hammer comes into force.
These are the facts - pointing them out is not "bigotted"
On the DT, I don't remember anyone on PB pointing out Stephen Daisley's (no great Nat he) hatchet job on its main Scottish star ...
'The issue isn't bias -- that perennial obsession of certain Nationalists who, in symbiotic inversion of the author, see Unionist stooges behind every byline -- for Cochrane is editor and columnist on a paper known for its ardent pro-Union stance. What is objectionable about Cochrane's account of his conduct during the referendum is his open and unabashed disregard for the basic tenets of journalism. He repeatedly refers to the No campaign using the first person plural and it soon becomes clear why.'
'It’s a pity we can’t fiddle an opinion poll nowadays; the buggers put all their results online.'
'Jenny said I should do what Darling asks. He’s in charge after all. It’s not really good journalism but what the hell does journalism matter? This is much more important.'
Has O'Flynn explained yet where Nigel's NHS £3billion is coming from? Or does he limit himself to talking about their former MEP who they reckoned was a baddun 7 months ago?
@iainmartin1: UKIP to fund £3bn for NHS "partly by clawing back money from health tourists." That old standby, from list headed "magic sources of money"
Mark Reckless @MarkReckless · 11m11 minutes ago @iainmartin1 It is £5bn more for NHS, £3bn from EU budget plus £2bn by requiring new migrants to take out NHS-approved insurance for 5 years
So no tax cuts or increased personal allowances as promised by O'Flynn at the conference then?
Brave - 'We're scrapping tax cuts in favour of NHS spending'
Welcome to the world of hard choices.
Plus they will bring back the spare room subsidy (for non-private sector tenants only).
Back at the start of October the Tories had three consecutive YouGov leads - something they haven't achieved since. If we get such a pattern now then you could start to see movement in the markets.
Bookies pension funds are mugs overreacting to the last thing that happened
So Swinney "kept quiet" a change that he announced in a parliamentary statement!
It is an evens bet as to whether you know so little about Scottish politics because you just don't like the SNP or alternatively because you believe the total tripe which appears in the Daily Telegraph.
Posters from south of the borde should understand the the Telgraph branch office in Scotland is not just right wing and bigoted like their English colleagues but right wing , bigoted and makes things up. That is to say it is not a real newspaper like the English edition but a propaganda sheet; a plaything of its three or so employees.
Scotslass - as soon as the Autumn statement was announced it was plain that the SNP would have to row back on their tax hammer on the Scottish middle class - the Nats said it was a "non issue" - but now their position has collapsed and Swinney's tail is between his legs.
Not only that but he has unpatriotically deprived Holyrood of revenue by being undercut by GO - as loyal citizens of Scotland rush to move house whilst under the benign Conservative tax regime and before the pernicious SNP tax hammer comes into force.
These are the facts - pointing them out is not "bigotted"
On the DT, I don't remember anyone on PB pointing out Stephen Daisley's (no great Nat he) hatchet job on its main Scottish star ...
'The issue isn't bias -- that perennial obsession of certain Nationalists who, in symbiotic inversion of the author, see Unionist stooges behind every byline -- for Cochrane is editor and columnist on a paper known for its ardent pro-Union stance. What is objectionable about Cochrane's account of his conduct during the referendum is his open and unabashed disregard for the basic tenets of journalism. He repeatedly refers to the No campaign using the first person plural and it soon becomes clear why.'
'It’s a pity we can’t fiddle an opinion poll nowadays; the buggers put all their results online.'
'Jenny said I should do what Darling asks. He’s in charge after all. It’s not really good journalism but what the hell does journalism matter? This is much more important.'
That's a poor GDP growth number. Osborne misses all annual GDP growth forecasts from June 2010. Every single one. Some achievement.
Those were also poor polls for Labour last night.
At least it is growth. Perhaps you would like to compare it to the growth under Labour 2005-2010? If you can call 0.0% growth ( yes, I know, Gordon did...).
I seem to recall you work with numbers. Creative accounting wasn't it?
Sky News have a projection this morning that the SNP are on course to win 53 of the 59 seats in Scotland.
If correct this would result in the LibDems losing all but one of their 11 seats and Labour losing 36 of the 41 seats they won in 2010, leaving them with a rump of 5 seats. Are Scottish cabs the same size as their London counterparts? ...... Just asking.
It would also mean that people who have been Labour voters for years have instantly lost interest in the idea of the Labour party forming a government in the UK. Where is the coherent explanation for that?
Lots of reasons (PB passim). But consider -
1. Labour voters were split on indyref - but the party jumped down on the Unionist side of the fence instead of, say, recognising that and leaving it to individuals to decide.
2. Labour voters saw their pols in bed with the Tories (and others which I won't name here). Yes, the Tories which SLAB have decried for decades. GB (yes, that GB) had a point when he felt a separate pro-union campaign made more sense.
3. Labour voters see their future in the UK as rule either by the Tories or Mr Miliband (or Mr Murphy)?
The annual figure is the best since 2007, before the recession, and indicates that the UK is likely to have been the world's fastest growing major economy last year.
6 years from the crash and after scuppering the recovery that was in place in 2009-10 all Osborne can muster is a 2.6% level of growth driven yet again by services?
This is economic blitzkrieg by a clueless Tory Party, floundering after their precious plan A predictably failed, clinging desperately to a mini spike in GDP driven almost entirely by super low interest rates rather than any policy put forward by this keystone cops of a government, and it follows that the only Party promising chaos should they be allowed anywhere near the levers of power after 7th May is, yet again, the Conservative Party.
As for fastest growth in G7 claim - we await the US's Q4 number, we note how Osborne usually ends up getting downgraded a few months on (that Q3 0.7% looks ripe for a subsequent downgrade), and speeding up after all your rivals have lapped you is not a very great achievement.
Back at the start of October the Tories had three consecutive YouGov leads - something they haven't achieved since. If we get such a pattern now then you could start to see movement in the markets.
Bookies pension funds are mugs overreacting to the last thing that happened
Did you trade politics when you were with IG?
No, there wasn't really a defined role as politics trader there.. a few people kind of put their heads together and came up with prices near big elections, but I wasn't one of them
Comments
Amusingly all those purchases brought forward will flow into Westminster coffers - Swinney has transferred money from Holyrood to London by his actions. What a buffoon.
"Mr Swinney revised the rates last week, introducing a five per cent band between £250,001 and £325,000 "."
Bury North: Lab gain
Watford: Con hold
Torbay: LD hold
Reading West: Con hold
Cornwall North: LD hold
S'ton Itchen: Lab hold
Great Yarmouth: UKIP gain
Is this one looking safe
The response was "You're falling into the Government's trap. Wales is totally different to England. All the population is clustered on the South Coast"
Response: er. Ok.
(As an aside, I would have thought a clustered population would make it easier to manage the bulk of service, although obviously there would be specific challenges related to the scattered people)
It's cognitive dissonance.
Like wanting all the paedos locked up while simultaneously sexualising young girls. It's a kind of psychological masochism thing that the sun (and daily mail) exploits very effectively.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11370963/Somali-immigrants-cause-pub-closures-says-minister.html
I don't think it will be a winner.
What Greek politics teaches the Labour party: there is an alternative
Insisting on Tina, ‘there is no alternative’, brought down the once mighty Pasok. It could do the same in the UK
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/27/uk-austerity-greece-parallels-labour-toxic-eliteness?CMP=share_btn_tw
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11366259/General-Election-2015-with-100-days-to-go-this-chart-should-scare-Ed-Miliband.html
Change in gross domestic product (GDP) is the main indicator of economic growth. GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.5% in Q4 2014 compared with growth of 0.7% in Q3 2014.
Output increased in two of the four main industrial groupings within the economy in Q4 2014. In order of their contribution, output increased by 0.8% in services and 1.3% in agriculture. In contrast, output decreased by 1.8% in construction and 0.1% in production.
GDP was 2.7% higher in Q4 2014 compared with the same quarter a year ago. GDP in 2014 as a whole was up 2.6% on 2013.
In Q4 2014 GDP was estimated to have been 3.4% higher than the pre-economic downturn peak of Q1 2008. From the peak in Q1 2008 to the trough in Q2 2009, the economy shrank by 6.0%.
27/01/2015 09:12
Cracking idea for TV debate Cam may go for: Just him with Amjad to represent all other parties, because he has belonged to so many of them!
A. Both have chosen to ignore the fact that three pollsters have all shown the Tories taking the lead in terms of GE2015 VI. In Sporting's case, this means maintaining both Labour and the Conservatives on the same seat spreads as applied yesterday, i.e. 279 - 285.
Who knows, maybe one of your own selections will come in one day.
Ed_Miliband: We’ve been catching up with the management at George Eliot Hospital about their concerns over the future of the NHS.
Jeremy Hunt: @Ed_Miliband, George Eliot great eg of @LabourHealth danger; high death rates ignored under Lab, special measures &turnaround under this Gov
"Just like Pasok, Labour has spent decades under the influence of Tina: the idea that “there is no alternative”, either in how to run an economy or how to run a social democratic party. The rise of Syriza shows how that rule can be broken. "
Syriza have not shown that they can run an economy. They have a great opportunity to show that there really IS no alternative.
Burnham came close to a car crash interview, but on balance IMHO he got away with it.
Montague is not a renowned rotweiller but had clearly invested some time in preparing for it and was well read on the Burnham proposals and the NHS Wales comparisons.
It went along these lines. (Paraphrased)
Burnham = the problem with A&E is caused by bed blocking older people and the tory cuts to social care which needs a single joined up service to fix.
Montague = In NHS Wales under Labour they have this single service that you are recommending yet they have a worse A&E service than NHS England.
Burnham = Wales is different and I am here to talk about NHS England not Wales. The cancer service is better in Wales.
Watching Sky News they think Middlesbrough might be a Tory gain.
They say it is a tipping point - Sky News Calculates hat the Tories need this seat for an overall majority.
That said, last night, I felt for the first time that my bet on Labour polling less than their 2010 share might actually be a winner.
Major splits in Portsmouth (Denny left) and in Fareham.
Know any bookies that may offer 2016 Un De Sceaux Queen Mother Champion Chase odds ?
So Swinney "kept quiet" a change that he announced in a parliamentary statement!
It is an evens bet as to whether you know so little about Scottish politics because you just don't like the SNP or alternatively because you believe the total tripe which appears in the Daily Telegraph.
Posters from south of the borde should understand the the Telgraph branch office in Scotland is not just right wing and bigoted like their English colleagues but right wing , bigoted and makes things up. That is to say it is not a real newspaper like the English edition but a propaganda sheet; a plaything of its three or so employees.
To me the question is of 'the dog that did not bark' - when Hollande was elected in France promising to 'end austerity' old ladies were trampled underfoot in Ed's rush to get the Eurostar to Paris and stand shoulder to shoulder with Comrade Hollande.
Under a similar platform the Syriza election has been met with a deathly silence, other than a whine about Cameron 'playing politics' about, er 'politics'.......
If you don't have an account with Star, I can recommend them. Their odds are not great, but they will take a bet, and are unfailingly helpful and courteous.
Ed Conway in the Times points out why Greece is in a mess. The country’s legal code is riddled with anti-competitive regulations. Unwilling to scrap supply-side reforms and burn the red tape. It remains deeply uncompetitive. It has spent much of the past decade substituting debt for productive economic growth. THe new government actually supports these uncompetitive regulations.
And because it wants to stay in the Euro means there is no way out - given that other countries are not going to make themselves as uncompetitive as Greece if they can help it.
Remember that anything less than an 11.4% CON lead in England means that LAB is gaining blue seats.
Not only that but he has unpatriotically deprived Holyrood of revenue by being undercut by GO - as loyal citizens of Scotland rush to move house whilst under the benign Conservative tax regime and before the pernicious SNP tax hammer comes into force.
These are the facts - pointing them out is not "bigotted"
Though with Farage's U turning and procrastination, they might be waiting a while.
Labour 8 points ahead of Con, Con Majority 3-1 or so.
Just how much swingback were the Con Majority (@3-1) punters expecting
Ed may be crap, but he's less awful than Gordon. That's Gordon who substantially outperformed the betting markets.
I'll happily bet that the tories will win less seats, and Labour will win more than the mid-point of the Sporting Index price at 10pm the night before the election - if any reputable punter is up for it?
Good for Douglas Carswell:
@DouglasCarswell UKIP voted for fracking. All establishment parties have rolled over to the wind / renewable lobby. Rent seekers wanting corporate subsidy
Those were also poor polls for Labour last night.
@iainmartin1 It is £5bn more for NHS, £3bn from EU budget plus £2bn by requiring new migrants to take out NHS-approved insurance for 5 years
The Press Association's take:
The annual figure is the best since 2007, before the recession, and indicates that the UK is likely to have been the world's fastest growing major economy last year.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-2927595/UK-economy-2-6-growth.html#ixzz3Q13T8YDH
The party's economic spokesman Patrick O'Flynn has suggested gains from leaving the EU and cutting the aid budget would help.
But he 'spent' that money when he unveiled UKIP's plan to increase the personal allowance and cut income tax at the party conference.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30972569
And if he thinks 5000 new home care workers will solve it...which he can't afford, it won't, and remember that a lot of home care is now run privately (again under the last government this became much more common, but of course Labour are totally against private sector in healthcare)...so is he going to pay the private companies to take on more staff? Or is this just for those that get council run services, meaning a 2 tier system? And what happens if councils can't afford it?
Brave - 'We're scrapping tax cuts in favour of NHS spending'
Welcome to the world of hard choices.
'The issue isn't bias -- that perennial obsession of certain Nationalists who, in symbiotic inversion of the author, see Unionist stooges behind every byline -- for Cochrane is editor and columnist on a paper known for its ardent pro-Union stance. What is objectionable about Cochrane's account of his conduct during the referendum is his open and unabashed disregard for the basic tenets of journalism. He repeatedly refers to the No campaign using the first person plural and it soon becomes clear why.'
http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/analysis/303773-stephen-daisley-reviews-the-alan-cochrane-referendum-diaries/
And a particulary nice one for PBers
'It’s a pity we can’t fiddle an opinion poll nowadays; the buggers put all their results online.'
'Jenny said I should do what Darling asks. He’s in charge after all. It’s not really good journalism but what the hell does journalism matter? This is much more important.'
http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/analysis/303682-stephen-daisley-picks-out-the-best-quotes-from-the-alan-cochrane-diaries/
Left wingers.
Kudos for conceding the point on the SNP tax retreat though.
I seem to recall you work with numbers. Creative accounting wasn't it?
1. Labour voters were split on indyref - but the party jumped down on the Unionist side of the fence instead of, say, recognising that and leaving it to individuals to decide.
2. Labour voters saw their pols in bed with the Tories (and others which I won't name here). Yes, the Tories which SLAB have decried for decades. GB (yes, that GB) had a point when he felt a separate pro-union campaign made more sense.
3. Labour voters see their future in the UK as rule either by the Tories or Mr Miliband (or Mr Murphy)?
This is economic blitzkrieg by a clueless Tory Party, floundering after their precious plan A predictably failed, clinging desperately to a mini spike in GDP driven almost entirely by super low interest rates rather than any policy put forward by this keystone cops of a government, and it follows that the only Party promising chaos should they be allowed anywhere near the levers of power after 7th May is, yet again, the Conservative Party.
As for fastest growth in G7 claim - we await the US's Q4 number, we note how Osborne usually ends up getting downgraded a few months on (that Q3 0.7% looks ripe for a subsequent downgrade), and speeding up after all your rivals have lapped you is not a very great achievement.
"At the last debates they happened because I said 'whatever it takes, lets go for it, I'll sign up for anything' "
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IjLPrzLeWA