politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two Mondays ago the Populus and the Ashcroft had an 11 poin
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I agree , whilst it may be logical to introduce a change and make the Ashcroft polls directly comparable to Ipsos Mori only taking into account those 10/10 certain to vote , the change should be openly declared in advance .Pulpstar said:
Why has Lord Ashcroft changed his methodology ?MarkSenior said:
No a direct comparator would give a 3% Labour leadBenM said:Is the direct comparator in this poll giving Labour a 1 point lead?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/
This is a bad thing to happen imo.0 -
/headbangers as we affectionately call them...Fenster said:
Keep up the good work. I find it difficult to get as worked-up about politics as some, I'm here because I enjoy the bloodsport. I did dislike Gordon Brown vehemently though; particularly didn't like the way he was coronated and imposed on us as a shite PM.audreyanne said:
Psephological rather than moral I think, but it's more about the way the thread was put together to show something about Labour lead convergence. I didn't understand it, and it was based on false data.Fenster said:
Couldn't help lolling at Audreyanne's moral outrage. One percent likePulpstar said:
1% doesn't make a howler.audreyanne said:Jeez this is a howler of a thread.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/01/lord-ashcroft-labour-and-the-conservatives-are-neck-and-neck-in-my-latest-poll.html
Sweet Jesus above.
Anyway, moving on, Mike's highlighted the really big issue which is the LibDem slump. They're in serious trouble at this rate.
p.s. Waiting for Isam to point out that I'm referring to polls already, some 5 days too soon. Tut tut my bad.
Interesting that BenM is sanguine about the polls. Ben is obviously a Labour supporter and his stance is intriguing. The polls on the whole are intriguing.
I really wanted the Tories to win the GE2010 but felt that - given the awful economic circumstances - they'd almost definitely be miles behind in the polls at this stage. I think the Tory hierarchy will likely be equally as sanguine as Ben, particularly given Ed Miliband's shortcomings (I see Ed Miliband as nice, clever and decent but woefully inadequate as leader - a very, very good backroom adviser, I suspect). To be level-pegging at this stage will not disturb the government.
At the next GE I'd like to see another Tory/Lib Dem coalition. I think the mixture of sound money and liberal values is a good one. I'm also very apprehensive about leaving the EU. I don't really trust the EU politicos; I don't like it's unaccountability and horse-trading and back-room deals, but I'm very unsure about leaving it. I like thought of a united, allied Europe. I want to be part of that without us losing our ability to make ALL our own laws.
I suspect Mr Cameron would quite fancy another coalition too, as his views on the EU are probably middle of the road too.
I'm gonna get slaughted now by the anti EU'ers...
You sound like a likely recruit to our new tory party - noweuorg.
Gordon did 'it' for me too. Motivated me more than any Tory ever did.0 -
JackW and ICM the gold standard.TheScreamingEagles said:Calm down.
We've all made mistakes.
I once headlined a piece saying ICM had a poll with the Tories 7% ahead when it was Lab 7% ahead.
Fortunately only JackW noticed.
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I've backed the SNP in Ross, Skye, Lochaber. I reckon Orkney and Shetland is the only safe seat for the Lib Dems in the whole of Scotland.DavidL said:I didn't take Lord Ashcroft's polls particularly seriously when he had a tory lead and I don't now. Having said that these are just catastrophic numbers for the Lib Dems. They really should be on their way back by now and it is getting even worse.
The London poll shows the consequences compared to the 2010 election as well. This could really be carnage.0 -
It's a media conspiracy...
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa0 -
Is price-rigging in commodities markets illegal?Anorak said:
Is that actually illegal, though?Socrates said:Here's another story [on Aluminium] *snipped to avoid thread cloggage*
You'd like to think so, although Goldman certainly does it's best to bribe Congress to keep the law off its back:
http://influenceexplorer.com/organization/goldman-sachs/597eccfe48784677a437569ff6293097?cycle=20140 -
Indeed but we don't like to talk about that here.RodCrosby said:Lab majority on BF 9.2, the longest odds yet...
Tories steaming in on most seats too, 1.92.0 -
Scotland.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Indeed but we don't like to talk about that here.RodCrosby said:Lab majority on BF 9.2, the longest odds yet...
Tories steaming in on most seats too, 1.92.0 -
Ashcroft FINALLY gives sample sizes and total AFTER adjustment for spiral of silence! (rather than me having to manually calculate them - will ICM follow suit?)0
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Why not - they are likely to have 30 or so MPs, Cons around 300 - 5 more years looks most likely govt from here.Yorkcity said:
Do you honestly believe the Lib Dems would join or be in a position to enter another coalition with the Conservatives ?Fenster said:
Keep up the good work. I find it difficult to get as worked-up about politics as some, I'm here because I enjoy the bloodsport. I did dislike Gordon Brown vehemently though; particularly didn't like the way he was coronated and imposed on us as a shite PM.audreyanne said:
Psephological rather than moral I think, but it's more about the way the thread was put together to show something about Labour lead convergence. I didn't understand it, and it was based on false data.Fenster said:
Couldn't help lolling at Audreyanne's moral outrage. One percent likePulpstar said:
1% doesn't make a howler.audreyanne said:Jeez this is a howler of a thread.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/01/lord-ashcroft-labour-and-the-conservatives-are-neck-and-neck-in-my-latest-poll.html
Sweet Jesus above.
Anyway, moving on, Mike's highlighted the really big issue which is the LibDem slump. They're in serious trouble at this rate.
p.s. Waiting for Isam to point out that I'm referring to polls already, some 5 days too soon. Tut tut my bad.
Interesting that BenM is sanguine about the polls. Ben is obviously a Labour supporter and his stance is intriguing. The polls on the whole are intriguing.
I really wanted the Tories to win the GE2010 but felt that - given the awful economic circumstances - they'd almost definitely be miles behind in the polls at this stage. I think the Tory hierarchy will likely be equally as sanguine as Ben, particularly given Ed Miliband's shortcomings (I see Ed Miliband as nice, clever and decent but woefully inadequate as leader - a very, very good backroom adviser, I suspect). To be level-pegging at this stage will not disturb the government.
At the next GE I'd like to see another Tory/Lib Dem coalition. I think the mixture of sound money and liberal values is a good one. I'm also very apprehensive about leaving the EU. I don't really trust the EU politicos; I don't like it's unaccountability and horse-trading and back-room deals, but I'm very unsure about leaving it. I like thought of a united, allied Europe. I want to be part of that without us losing our ability to make ALL our own laws.
I suspect Mr Cameron would quite fancy another coalition too, as his views on the EU are probably middle of the road too.
I'm gonna get slaughted now by the anti EU'ers...0 -
Internals of the Ashcroft poll are good for Labour I reckon.0
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Happy to use the tinfoil thing as a PB-ism, but can we stop dressing it up as an actual argument?Anorak said:
Pfff. That's no fun at all. As it happens I think there are WAAAAY to many ex-GS staff who are now in senior positions in governments and regulators around the world. They are too influential and they have piss-poor ethics. They're referred to as the "vampire squid" for good reason.Socrates said:
The quote is from the original tapes. You can also see it in the following sources:Anorak said:
Good source. They're backing Sryiza's anti-austerity aim to the hilt, so no danger of them having an axe to grind.Socrates said:A New York Fed employee, recorded on how to police Goldman Sachs:
"... we don't want to discourage Goldman from disclosing these types of things in the future, and therefore maybe you know some comment that says don't mistake our inquisitiveness, and our desire to understand more about the marketplace in general, as a criticism of you as a firm necessarily. Like I don't want to, I don't want to hit them on the bat with the head, and they say screw it we're not gonna disclose it again, we don't need to."
http://www.alternet.org/corporate-accountability-and-workplace/7-revelations-those-secret-goldman-sachs-tapes
http://www.alternet.org/krugman-ending-delusional-nightmare-austerity-economics
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2771216/Fired-New-York-Fed-worker-unveils-46-hours-secret-taped-meetings-regulators-banking-giant-Goldman-Sachs-showing-government-bankers-pockets.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-secret-tapes-of-fed-meetings-on-goldman-prompt-call-for-us-hearings-2014-9?IR=T
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/09/30/delamaide-goldman-sachs-federal-reserve/16483611/
So you can stop your playing of the man and deal with the actual argument.
I still think you've gone off the deep end on this. Tin-foil hattery.
Person 1 -I believe this, because of x, y, and z
Person 2 -Tinfoil hat!
It's not. Anyone using it on its own as far as I'm concerned loses the argument by default.
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you are saying we don't like to talk about Scotland here?Pulpstar said:
Scotland.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Indeed but we don't like to talk about that here.RodCrosby said:Lab majority on BF 9.2, the longest odds yet...
Tories steaming in on most seats too, 1.92.
It's a view...0 -
Trouble for Dave's star defector:
Amjad Bashir tells Guido this afternoon that the Tories have banned him from talking to the media: http://t.co/hZ0H3OHNE7
— Alex Wickham (@WikiGuido) January 26, 2015
I find it deeply troubling that Dave and Grant Shapps/Michael Green were so eager to take Amjad Bashir. Their hatred of UKIP is clouding their judgement.
They can't get rid of him as it will make them look bad so are now stuck with a ticking time bomb.
UKIP should have done their homework but the Conservatives with their £75m bank balance have no excuse.0 -
they were always wrong 'uns, all of them and UKIP is stronger still as a result.Scott_P said:It's a media conspiracy...
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa0 -
Agreed. But they do seem to be drifting to oblivion, with the exception of some of the seats they hold.Richard_Nabavi said:I don't think we should take the 3 point drop for the LibDems too seriously; Lord Ashcroft's polls have been volatile in the past, and somehow I doubt that the LibDems have really mislaid one third of their voters in the last week.
Of course that doesn't alter the wider concern for the party, that it doesn't seem to be pulling itself up from the dire lows we've now become used to.
We can all agree that the current position is pretty much tied, with Labour a nose ahead. The London poll is a 4% swing to Labour, which is exactly the same as a national 1-point lead. A 4% Tory swing in just over 3 months to get back to where they were looks a bit unlikely after months of deadlock, and the 7% or so needed for an overall majority really implausible. Labour would get lots of English seats on these figures. Ironically, it's starting to look as though the SNP is the best Tory shot at denying Labour a majority.
Apart from Scotland, there hasn't been much evidence of huge regional variations in the swing, has there? Constituency variation seems more likely to be demographic than regional, with seats having disproportionate numbers in the Kipper-leaning or Red Liberal category standing out.
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The political bettors among us might have been more interested inScott_P said:It's a media conspiracy...
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes0 -
No, I'm saying Scotland means Labour can't get a majority and even taking seats off Conservatives in England means that most Seats is more difficult for them. The SNP decimates Labour's votes/seats efficiency but affects his chances of becoming PM far less.Scrapheap_as_was said:
you are saying we don't like to talk about Scotland here?Pulpstar said:
Scotland.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Indeed but we don't like to talk about that here.RodCrosby said:Lab majority on BF 9.2, the longest odds yet...
Tories steaming in on most seats too, 1.92.
It's a view...0 -
Kippers throw them out - straight away - like just 7 months later when they are about to defect - its a new clean non establishment politics...Scrapheap_as_was said:
they were always wrong 'uns, all of them and UKIP is stronger still as a result.Scott_P said:It's a media conspiracy...
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa0 -
MP_SE said:
Trouble for Dave's star defector:
Amjad Bashir tells Guido this afternoon that the Tories have banned him from talking to the media: http://t.co/hZ0H3OHNE7
— Alex Wickham (@WikiGuido) January 26, 2015
I find it deeply troubling that Dave and Grant Shapps/Michael Green were so eager to take Amjad Bashir. Their hatred of UKIP is clouding their judgement.
They can't get rid of him as it will make them look bad so are now stuck with a ticking time bomb.
UKIP should have done their homework but the Conservatives with their £75m bank balance have no excuse.
The Tories can lease him back to UKIP for further photo ops.0 -
I was teasing.Pulpstar said:
No, I'm saying Scotland means Labour can't get a majority and even taking seats off Conservatives in England means that most Seats is more difficult for them. The SNP decimates Labour's votes/seats efficiency but affects his chances of becoming PM far less.Scrapheap_as_was said:
you are saying we don't like to talk about Scotland here?Pulpstar said:
Scotland.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Indeed but we don't like to talk about that here.RodCrosby said:Lab majority on BF 9.2, the longest odds yet...
Tories steaming in on most seats too, 1.92.
It's a view...0 -
0
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Ashcroft has been making adjustments for DK/refusers before - see e.g. the 8 Dec tables at: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/12/ashcroft-national-poll-con-30-lab-31-lib-dem-8-ukip-19-green-5/#more-69010
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The Tories can lease him back to UKIP for further photo ops.TheWatcher said:MP_SE said:Trouble for Dave's star defector:
Amjad Bashir tells Guido this afternoon that the Tories have banned him from talking to the media: http://t.co/hZ0H3OHNE7
— Alex Wickham (@WikiGuido) January 26, 2015
I find it deeply troubling that Dave and Grant Shapps/Michael Green were so eager to take Amjad Bashir. Their hatred of UKIP is clouding their judgement.
They can't get rid of him as it will make them look bad so are now stuck with a ticking time bomb.
UKIP should have done their homework but the Conservatives with their £75m bank balance have no excuse.
100% a Westminster-only story.
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saw it, discounted it. Although it did occur to me that of course Kipper private polling is totally different to Hodges seen private polling and is therefore unimpeachable and so all can put their house on it as kippers don't ramp.isam said:
The political bettors among us might have been more interested inScott_P said:It's a media conspiracy...
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes0 -
I think Charlie will hold on. He is well liked by people of every party. Thurso has some more work to do. Danny, oh boy, Danny. He will be a loss. South of Inverness I really see nothing at all although Lib Dems do have their sticking qualities. The tories will surely be gutted if they don't pick up at least one of Berwickshire and Kincardine.Pulpstar said:
I've backed the SNP in Ross, Skye, Lochaber. I reckon Orkney and Shetland is the only safe seat for the Lib Dems in the whole of Scotland.DavidL said:I didn't take Lord Ashcroft's polls particularly seriously when he had a tory lead and I don't now. Having said that these are just catastrophic numbers for the Lib Dems. They really should be on their way back by now and it is getting even worse.
The London poll shows the consequences compared to the 2010 election as well. This could really be carnage.0 -
Is that Rochford and Southend East or Southend West ?isam said:
The political bettors among us might have been more interested inScott_P said:It's a media conspiracy...
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes
That polling seems credible to me given the East coast.0 -
He's not changed his methodology - there's always been a "THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS" table followed by a different "Published Voting Intention" one.MarkSenior said:
I agree , whilst it may be logical to introduce a change and make the Ashcroft polls directly comparable to Ipsos Mori only taking into account those 10/10 certain to vote , the change should be openly declared in advance .Pulpstar said:
Why has Lord Ashcroft changed his methodology ?MarkSenior said:
No a direct comparator would give a 3% Labour leadBenM said:Is the direct comparator in this poll giving Labour a 1 point lead?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/
This is a bad thing to happen imo.0 -
Dave must feel like he's just stamped on a paper bag that was on fire expecting to be applauded then realised it was full of dog shitAndyJS said:"Tories Gag Bashir: “I’m Not Allowed to Give a Statement”":
http://order-order.com/0 -
An interesting bet would be whether the LD's will gain any seat, anywhere.NickPalmer said:
Agreed. But they do seem to be drifting to oblivion, with the exception of some of the seats they hold.Richard_Nabavi said:I don't think we should take the 3 point drop for the LibDems too seriously; Lord Ashcroft's polls have been volatile in the past, and somehow I doubt that the LibDems have really mislaid one third of their voters in the last week.
Of course that doesn't alter the wider concern for the party, that it doesn't seem to be pulling itself up from the dire lows we've now become used to.
Seems unlikely, but there has to be a chance, right?0 -
Yeah, linking clearly documented facts from USA Today and the New York Times! It's sheer quackery!Anorak said:
Pfff. That's no fun at all. As it happens I think there are WAAAAY to many ex-GS staff who are now in senior positions in governments and regulators around the world. They are too influential and they have piss-poor ethics. They're referred to as the "vampire squid" for good reason.Socrates said:
The quote is from the original tapes. You can also see it in the following sources:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2771216/Fired-New-York-Fed-worker-unveils-46-hours-secret-taped-meetings-regulators-banking-giant-Goldman-Sachs-showing-government-bankers-pockets.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-secret-tapes-of-fed-meetings-on-goldman-prompt-call-for-us-hearings-2014-9?IR=T
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/09/30/delamaide-goldman-sachs-federal-reserve/16483611/
So you can stop your playing of the man and deal with the actual argument.
I still think you've gone off the deep end on this. Tin-foil hattery.
It's amazing how some people have this instinctive reaction to defend the powerful even when provided with clear evidence about wrong-doing. It's as if they don't want to admit that much of the establishment is corrupt, because that means the world's a worse place than they wish to accept.0 -
Watford is often suggested on herePong said:
An interesting bet would be whether the LD's will gain any seat, anywhere.NickPalmer said:
Agreed. But they do seem to be drifting to oblivion, with the exception of some of the seats they hold.Richard_Nabavi said:I don't think we should take the 3 point drop for the LibDems too seriously; Lord Ashcroft's polls have been volatile in the past, and somehow I doubt that the LibDems have really mislaid one third of their voters in the last week.
Of course that doesn't alter the wider concern for the party, that it doesn't seem to be pulling itself up from the dire lows we've now become used to.
Seems unlikely, but there has to be a chance, right?0 -
Rochford and Southend EastPulpstar said:
Is that Rochford and Southend East or Southend West ?isam said:
The political bettors among us might have been more interested inScott_P said:It's a media conspiracy...
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes
That polling seems credible to me given the East coast.
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I can sympathise with that, and not just because Socrates told us about that extraordinary aluminium warehouse complex: after thinking about all the foil you could get out of that, any other mention would be an anti-climax.Luckyguy1983 said:
Happy to use the tinfoil thing as a PB-ism, but can we stop dressing it up as an actual argument?Anorak said:
Pfff. That's no fun at all. As it happens I think there are WAAAAY to many ex-GS staff who are now in senior positions in governments and regulators around the world. They are too influential and they have piss-poor ethics. They're referred to as the "vampire squid" for good reason.Socrates said:
The quote is from the original tapes. You can also see it in the following sources:Anorak said:
Good source. They're backing Sryiza's anti-austerity aim to the hilt, so no danger of them having an axe to grind.Socrates said:A New York Fed employee, recorded on how to police Goldman Sachs:
"... we don't want to discourage Goldman from disclosing these types of things in the future, and therefore maybe you know some comment that says don't mistake our inquisitiveness, and our desire to understand more about the marketplace in general, as a criticism of you as a firm necessarily. Like I don't want to, I don't want to hit them on the bat with the head, and they say screw it we're not gonna disclose it again, we don't need to."
http://www.alternet.org/corporate-accountability-and-workplace/7-revelations-those-secret-goldman-sachs-tapes
http://www.alternet.org/krugman-ending-delusional-nightmare-austerity-economics
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2771216/Fired-New-York-Fed-worker-unveils-46-hours-secret-taped-meetings-regulators-banking-giant-Goldman-Sachs-showing-government-bankers-pockets.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-secret-tapes-of-fed-meetings-on-goldman-prompt-call-for-us-hearings-2014-9?IR=T
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/09/30/delamaide-goldman-sachs-federal-reserve/16483611/
So you can stop your playing of the man and deal with the actual argument.
I still think you've gone off the deep end on this. Tin-foil hattery.
Person 1 -I believe this, because of x, y, and z
Person 2 -Tinfoil hat!
It's not. Anyone using it on its own as far as I'm concerned loses the argument by default.
We had something like it during indyref - the one who started talking about Bannockburn lost any discussion (Gibson's Law, it was called).
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Will you take £100 @ 12s?Scrapheap_as_was said:
saw it, discounted it. Although it did occur to me that of course Kipper private polling is totally different to Hodges seen private polling and is therefore unimpeachable and so all can put their house on it as kippers don't ramp.isam said:
The political bettors among us might have been more interested inScott_P said:It's a media conspiracy...
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes0 -
Right. It's perfectly fine for him to say "I think you've got a tinfoil hat on. This is documented by arguments A and B, and sources C and D." But some people just throw it out without any logic for anyone claiming that there is wrongdoing among powerful people. It's a very curious subservience mechanism.Luckyguy1983 said:
Happy to use the tinfoil thing as a PB-ism, but can we stop dressing it up as an actual argument?
Person 1 -I believe this, because of x, y, and z
Person 2 -Tinfoil hat!
It's not. Anyone using it on its own as far as I'm concerned loses the argument by default.0 -
Socrates, I really think you should cool this. Squids are litigious, allegedly.Socrates said:
Is price-rigging in commodities markets illegal?Anorak said:
Is that actually illegal, though?Socrates said:Here's another story [on Aluminium] *snipped to avoid thread cloggage*
You'd like to think so, although Goldman certainly does it's best to bribe Congress to keep the law off its back:
http://influenceexplorer.com/organization/goldman-sachs/597eccfe48784677a437569ff6293097?cycle=20140 -
£15 on at 12s. Lets hope they romp home like that horse did todayisam said:
Rochford and Southend EastPulpstar said:
Is that Rochford and Southend East or Southend West ?isam said:
The political bettors among us might have been more interested inScott_P said:It's a media conspiracy...
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes
That polling seems credible to me given the East coast. 0 -
Isn't Ashcroft
Lab 32
Con 32
UKIP 15
Green 9
LD 6
from Table 7?
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/ashcroft-national-poll-con-32-lab-32-lib-dem-6-ukip-15-green-9/0 -
"Why not - they are likely to have 30 or so MPs, Cons around 300 - 5 more years looks most likely govt from here."
TGOHF
Just can not see it.
Thought the wider party would not go for another formal coalition with the conservatives.
Maybe confidence and supply so they could re-group.
Obviously if Clegg is still there he will want to stay as deputy PM.0 -
If there is a private poll, it's probably by Survation.Pulpstar said:
Is that Rochford and Southend East or Southend West ?isam said:
The political bettors among us might have been more interested inScott_P said:It's a media conspiracy...
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes
That polling seems credible to me given the East coast.0 -
Possibly until the news of ''4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ''isam said:
The political bettors among us might have been more interested inScott_P said:It's a media conspiracy...
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes0 -
Yes he has Table 4 " This table has been weighted on the basis of past voting to be politically representative of the UK population as a whole and INCLUDING ONLY THOSE MOST LIKELY TO VOTE "Tissue_Price said:
He's not changed his methodology - there's always been a "THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS" table followed by a different "Published Voting Intention" one.MarkSenior said:
I agree , whilst it may be logical to introduce a change and make the Ashcroft polls directly comparable to Ipsos Mori only taking into account those 10/10 certain to vote , the change should be openly declared in advance .Pulpstar said:
Why has Lord Ashcroft changed his methodology ?MarkSenior said:
No a direct comparator would give a 3% Labour leadBenM said:Is the direct comparator in this poll giving Labour a 1 point lead?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/
This is a bad thing to happen imo.0 -
Were people on here not claiming the Mayor of somewhere was a really strong candidate with a good chance for them? Edit. Yes Watford, thanks Socrates.Pong said:
An interesting bet would be whether the LD's will gain any seat, anywhere.NickPalmer said:
Agreed. But they do seem to be drifting to oblivion, with the exception of some of the seats they hold.Richard_Nabavi said:I don't think we should take the 3 point drop for the LibDems too seriously; Lord Ashcroft's polls have been volatile in the past, and somehow I doubt that the LibDems have really mislaid one third of their voters in the last week.
Of course that doesn't alter the wider concern for the party, that it doesn't seem to be pulling itself up from the dire lows we've now become used to.
Seems unlikely, but there has to be a chance, right?
Personally I don't see it. For the Lib Dems this is looking like a wave election to me, all the more so as time goes on. They really deserve better but that's the way its looking.0 -
Rochford pronounced "Rochefort"? (only kidding!)isam said:
Rochford and Southend EastPulpstar said:
Is that Rochford and Southend East or Southend West ?isam said:
The political bettors among us might have been more interested inScott_P said:It's a media conspiracy...
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes
That polling seems credible to me given the East coast.0 -
Do you think the average man in the Essex street is going to consider that when they vote ?Flightpath said:
Possibly until the news of ''4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ''isam said:
The political bettors among us might have been more interested inScott_P said:It's a media conspiracy...
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes
Honestly ?
0 -
lolisam said:
Dave must feel like he's just stamped on a paper bag that was on fire expecting to be applauded then realised it was full of dog shitAndyJS said:"Tories Gag Bashir: “I’m Not Allowed to Give a Statement”":
http://order-order.com/
#letsalllaughatdave
0 -
Ashcroft has produced two Watford polls, which show a very tight three-way contest, albeit with the Conservatives in first place.DavidL said:
Were people on here not claiming the Mayor of somewhere was a really strong candidate with a good chance for them?Pong said:
An interesting bet would be whether the LD's will gain any seat, anywhere.NickPalmer said:
Agreed. But they do seem to be drifting to oblivion, with the exception of some of the seats they hold.Richard_Nabavi said:I don't think we should take the 3 point drop for the LibDems too seriously; Lord Ashcroft's polls have been volatile in the past, and somehow I doubt that the LibDems have really mislaid one third of their voters in the last week.
Of course that doesn't alter the wider concern for the party, that it doesn't seem to be pulling itself up from the dire lows we've now become used to.
Seems unlikely, but there has to be a chance, right?
Personally I don't see it. For the Lib Dems this is looking like a wave election to me, all the more so as time goes on. They really deserve better but that's the way its looking.
The Lib Dems had hopes of regaining Oxford West & Abingdon, but I don't think there's a realistic prospect of that.0 -
@YorkCity
Re the possibility of another Lib/Con coalition.
I don't see why not. I think the Lib Dems win 30 seats or more and will be a crucial part of any negotiations.
I think Cameron and Osborne would love to finish the job (as they'd see it) and most of the powerful figures at the head of the Tory party wouldn't be against a continuation of the current government. I also think Cameron and Osborne would be far more inclined to offer a good deal to the Lib Dem leadership on cabinet places than Labour would. Labour find it difficult to bury their feelings (you've only got to read about Balls's behaviour during the negotiations in May 2010 to see how difficult it would be).
There would be problems. Cable will likely be difficult (I doubt the parliamentary Tory party would love to have him back) and - given the cuts to come - it is unlikely the government would last the full term. But Cameron would probably step down after three years, the Tories would pick a working class bloke (or lady, or Muslim) as leader, the Lib Dems would breakaway saying what they did was necessary for Britain and the show would move on. Hopefully without a deficit.0 -
This week he actually adds sample numbers (and the total) making it much more easier to plug the data into my ELBOW! Up to and including last week, I had to use the ICM style add 50% of DK/refused to their 2010 voting party.Tissue_Price said:
He's not changed his methodology - there's always been a "THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS" table followed by a different "Published Voting Intention" one.MarkSenior said:
I agree , whilst it may be logical to introduce a change and make the Ashcroft polls directly comparable to Ipsos Mori only taking into account those 10/10 certain to vote , the change should be openly declared in advance .Pulpstar said:
Why has Lord Ashcroft changed his methodology ?MarkSenior said:
No a direct comparator would give a 3% Labour leadBenM said:Is the direct comparator in this poll giving Labour a 1 point lead?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/
This is a bad thing to happen imo.0 -
You would think the average man in a Southend East or Rochford street would consider it a bit rum that the UKIP councillor they voted for last May has been expelled .Pulpstar said:
Do you think the average man in the Essex street is going to consider that when they vote ?Flightpath said:
Possibly until the news of ''4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ''isam said:
The political bettors among us might have been more interested inScott_P said:It's a media conspiracy...
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes
Honestly ?
0 -
Con+Lib coalition certainly more likely than Lab+Lib coalition from an arithmetic point of view too - Lab struggling to breach 280 on a good day.
0 -
Local government
Currently the 31 Council seats held in Rochford and Southend East are 7 Conservative (from Rochford), 10 Independent, 7 Labour, 5 Conservative and 2 UKIP (from Southend).
Big chunk of votes pump primed to go from Independent to UKIP at the GE imo.0 -
Cameron spiking the debates again !
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 1m1 minute ago
Labour now wants Irish parties in #tvdebates. 'We can see no good reason to treat NI differently to rest of UK', source tells @politicshome
Might need a bigger podium ..0 -
Are they not polling even lower now than they were then (and the tories marginally higher too? Given a really strong personal vote anything is possible but its a real long shot with a backdrop like this.Sean_F said:
Ashcroft has produced two Watford polls, which show a very tight three-way contest, albeit with the Conservatives in first place.DavidL said:
Were people on here not claiming the Mayor of somewhere was a really strong candidate with a good chance for them?Pong said:
An interesting bet would be whether the LD's will gain any seat, anywhere.NickPalmer said:
Agreed. But they do seem to be drifting to oblivion, with the exception of some of the seats they hold.Richard_Nabavi said:I don't think we should take the 3 point drop for the LibDems too seriously; Lord Ashcroft's polls have been volatile in the past, and somehow I doubt that the LibDems have really mislaid one third of their voters in the last week.
Of course that doesn't alter the wider concern for the party, that it doesn't seem to be pulling itself up from the dire lows we've now become used to.
Seems unlikely, but there has to be a chance, right?
Personally I don't see it. For the Lib Dems this is looking like a wave election to me, all the more so as time goes on. They really deserve better but that's the way its looking.
.
0 -
It will seem credible to anybody who has visited Southend.Pulpstar said:
Is that Rochford and Southend East or Southend West ?isam said:
The political bettors among us might have been more interested inScott_P said:It's a media conspiracy...
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes
That polling seems credible to me given the East coast.
0 -
The Conservatives and Lib Dems can't afford to lose more than 36 seats between them to continue the coalition. The Conservatives would need to improve quite a lot in these last three months.0
-
Hmm, yes, that is a new table. Perhaps he will respond to an enquiry from OGH or TSE?MarkSenior said:
Yes he has Table 4 " This table has been weighted on the basis of past voting to be politically representative of the UK population as a whole and INCLUDING ONLY THOSE MOST LIKELY TO VOTE "Tissue_Price said:
He's not changed his methodology - there's always been a "THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS" table followed by a different "Published Voting Intention" one.MarkSenior said:
I agree , whilst it may be logical to introduce a change and make the Ashcroft polls directly comparable to Ipsos Mori only taking into account those 10/10 certain to vote , the change should be openly declared in advance .Pulpstar said:
Why has Lord Ashcroft changed his methodology ?MarkSenior said:
No a direct comparator would give a 3% Labour leadBenM said:Is the direct comparator in this poll giving Labour a 1 point lead?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/
This is a bad thing to happen imo.0 -
Any one know why these councillors disowned their PPC?Flightpath said:
Possibly until the news of ''4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ''isam said:
The political bettors among us might have been more interested inScott_P said:It's a media conspiracy...
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes
Surely not some one imposed from above?0 -
Well the Lib Dems are heading for losses of 30.Artist said:The Conservatives and Lib Dems can't afford to lose more than 36 seats between them to continue the coalition. The Conservatives would need to improve quite a lot in these last three months.
0 -
Tsiparis's first meeting with a foreign ambassador since being elected PM was with the Russian ambassador Andrey Maslov.0
-
The LibDems certainly hope to win Watford back, but I think they will be disappointed. Con hold in my book.0
-
Yeesh, LDs in London is terrible. Not that surprising I suppose, given how many strong Labour areas that includes, but their stronger areas there will be interesting to watch.
As for overall numbers, the Tories continue to show they are holding steady in the low 30s but cannot seem to sustain anything beyond that. Labour cannot consistently pull away but still lead more often than they do not, but call it a tie or not, it's enough for them to win unless the SNP hit them hard, and that doesn't help the Tories either. Repetitious stuff, but not much changed in terms of likely outcomes.
In fairness it is harder, though not impossible, to justify not doing it given the PC inclusion, but perhaps it might start making people think Labour are keener to avoid these debates than Cameron is.TGOHF said:Cameron spiking the debates again !
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 1m1 minute ago
Labour now wants Irish parties in #tvdebates. 'We can see no good reason to treat NI differently to rest of UK', source tells @politicshome
Might need a bigger podium ..
That seems the extent they'd want with anyone, even if they do better than expected and get 30-35MPs - rather than swing back to the left too quickly with Labour or cement forevermore the idea they are the natural allies of the Tories.Yorkcity said:
Thought the wider party would not go for another formal coalition with the conservatives.
Maybe confidence and supply so they could re-group.
.
0 -
It's being reported that the Kurds have won the four month battle for Kobane:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-309916120 -
Or 25 or 20 , we all have differing opinionsTCPoliticalBetting said:
Well the Lib Dems are heading for losses of 30.Artist said:The Conservatives and Lib Dems can't afford to lose more than 36 seats between them to continue the coalition. The Conservatives would need to improve quite a lot in these last three months.
0 -
Not as far as I know , the PPC is another local councillor , seems personal to me .foxinsoxuk said:
Any one know why these councillors disowned their PPC?Flightpath said:
Possibly until the news of ''4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ''isam said:
The political bettors among us might have been more interested inScott_P said:It's a media conspiracy...
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes
Surely not some one imposed from above?0 -
The Skibbereen Eagle @theskibeagle · 2m2 minutes agoFalseFlag said:Tsiparis's first meeting with a foreign ambassador since being elected PM was with the Russian ambassador Andrey Maslov.
Message to Berlin? #AlexisTsipras' 1st act as Greek PM, deposits red roses at memorial to Greeks killed by Nazis όχι!
pic.twitter.com/N2W0aQBoAx0 -
Are we looking at the possibility of the lib dems losing Kingston/Surbiton and even Twickers...???
0 -
Just look at Table 7 guys, that's the table His Lordship uses for his write-up:Tissue_Price said:
Hmm, yes, that is a new table. Perhaps he will respond to an enquiry from OGH or TSE?MarkSenior said:
Yes he has Table 4 " This table has been weighted on the basis of past voting to be politically representative of the UK population as a whole and INCLUDING ONLY THOSE MOST LIKELY TO VOTE "Tissue_Price said:
He's not changed his methodology - there's always been a "THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS" table followed by a different "Published Voting Intention" one.MarkSenior said:
I agree , whilst it may be logical to introduce a change and make the Ashcroft polls directly comparable to Ipsos Mori only taking into account those 10/10 certain to vote , the change should be openly declared in advance .Pulpstar said:
Why has Lord Ashcroft changed his methodology ?MarkSenior said:
No a direct comparator would give a 3% Labour leadBenM said:Is the direct comparator in this poll giving Labour a 1 point lead?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/
This is a bad thing to happen imo.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/ashcroft-national-poll-con-32-lab-32-lib-dem-6-ukip-15-green-9/0 -
Only in TC's wet dreamstaffys said:Are we looking at the possibility of the lib dems losing Kingston/Surbiton and even Twickers...???
0 -
I read an article about some aggro in this seat last year.. will try and findMarkSenior said:
Not as far as I know , the PPC is another local councillor , seems personal to me .foxinsoxuk said:
Any one know why these councillors disowned their PPC?Flightpath said:
Possibly until the news of ''4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ''isam said:
The political bettors among us might have been more interested inScott_P said:It's a media conspiracy...
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes
Surely not some one imposed from above?0 -
I like the Pier RailwayPeter_the_Punter said:
It will seem credible to anybody who has visited Southend.Pulpstar said:
Is that Rochford and Southend East or Southend West ?isam said:
The political bettors among us might have been more interested inScott_P said:It's a media conspiracy...
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes
That polling seems credible to me given the East coast. 0 -
The overall figure is terrible for London, but the Lib Dems should still hold five out of seven.kle4 said:Yeesh, LDs in London is terrible. Not that surprising I suppose, given how many strong Labour areas that includes, but their stronger areas there will be interesting to watch.
As for overall numbers, the Tories continue to show they are holding steady in the low 30s but cannot seem to sustain anything beyond that. Labour cannot consistently pull away but still lead more often than they do not, but call it a tie or not, it's enough for them to win unless the SNP hit them hard, and that doesn't help the Tories either. Repetitious stuff, but not much changed in terms of likely outcomes.
In fairness it is harder, though not impossible, to justify not doing it given the PC inclusion, but perhaps it might start making people think Labour are keener to avoid these debates than Cameron is.TGOHF said:Cameron spiking the debates again !
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 1m1 minute ago
Labour now wants Irish parties in #tvdebates. 'We can see no good reason to treat NI differently to rest of UK', source tells @politicshome
Might need a bigger podium ..
That seems the extent they'd want with anyone, even if they do better than expected and get 30-35MPs - rather than swing back to the left too quickly with Labour or cement forevermore the idea they are the natural allies of the Tories.Yorkcity said:
Thought the wider party would not go for another formal coalition with the conservatives.
Maybe confidence and supply so they could re-group.
.
0 -
YouGov.... must have YouGov...0
-
Yes but table 7 just gives raw figures not how they have been obtained .Sunil_Prasannan said:
Just look at Table 7 guys, that's the table His Lordship uses for his write-up:Tissue_Price said:
Hmm, yes, that is a new table. Perhaps he will respond to an enquiry from OGH or TSE?MarkSenior said:
Yes he has Table 4 " This table has been weighted on the basis of past voting to be politically representative of the UK population as a whole and INCLUDING ONLY THOSE MOST LIKELY TO VOTE "Tissue_Price said:
He's not changed his methodology - there's always been a "THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS" table followed by a different "Published Voting Intention" one.MarkSenior said:
I agree , whilst it may be logical to introduce a change and make the Ashcroft polls directly comparable to Ipsos Mori only taking into account those 10/10 certain to vote , the change should be openly declared in advance .Pulpstar said:
Why has Lord Ashcroft changed his methodology ?MarkSenior said:
No a direct comparator would give a 3% Labour leadBenM said:Is the direct comparator in this poll giving Labour a 1 point lead?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/
This is a bad thing to happen imo.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/ashcroft-national-poll-con-32-lab-32-lib-dem-6-ukip-15-green-9/0 -
Sounds like Labour and the Tories are working together again.TGOHF said:Cameron spiking the debates again !
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 1m1 minute ago
Labour now wants Irish parties in #tvdebates. 'We can see no good reason to treat NI differently to rest of UK', source tells @politicshome
Might need a bigger podium ..0 -
Will we get ComRes tonight?0
-
'Conspiring'.Socrates said:
Sounds like Labour and the Tories are working together again.TGOHF said:Cameron spiking the debates again !
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 1m1 minute ago
Labour now wants Irish parties in #tvdebates. 'We can see no good reason to treat NI differently to rest of UK', source tells @politicshome
Might need a bigger podium ..0 -
Probably later in the week (last time was fieldwork-ending 15th Jan).Sean_F said:Will we get ComRes tonight?
0 -
Not as good as Brighton's though.Sunil_Prasannan said:
I like the Pier RailwayPeter_the_Punter said:
It will seem credible to anybody who has visited Southend.Pulpstar said:
Is that Rochford and Southend East or Southend West ?isam said:
The political bettors among us might have been more interested inScott_P said:It's a media conspiracy...
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes
That polling seems credible to me given the East coast.0 -
-
You'd have to offer me 100/1 plus before I would bet on a Lab+Con coalition happening.Socrates said:
0 -
0
-
RCS can defend himself. But there is a world of difference between being fined for a breach of regulatory rules and committing a criminal offence. The examples you have provided evidence the former. A magazine article is not evidence of the latter.Socrates said:
My God, look at yourself. I have provided ample evidence of the criminal wrong-doing within Goldman Sachs and on their harassing of regulators to prevent such crimes being investigated. Whatever other banks have or have not done does not change such criminality. It's a classic attempt at whataboutery by someone that is sensitive about their previous employer. Meanwhile, you have not provided any evidence whatsoever, and haven't engaged with any of my arguments about the behaviour Goldman has carried out. You just claim others are worse.rcs1000 said:
You have provided no evidence, not even a shred, that Goldman Sachs is any different from any other firm in financial services. Nor that it is any more immoral than any other company. Your allegations regarding compliance are also completely off-base.
Essentially, you have decided they are criminal, and now seek to find evidence to back up your world view.
Cognitive dissonance.
Face it. You can't defend their indefensible behaviour: forming cartels, price-rigging, lying to clients, leaning on regulators, hiding debt, buying opposition to regulations that help regular people but hurt their own bottom line. These are regular, common occurrences at Goldman and are so pervasive you can't pretend it's one or two that slipped through the net. You have an emotional defensiveness because you have worked for an utterly unethical organisation and have been unable to challenge any of this. That's cognitive dissonance.
Two more points: you can libel a company.
And second, there are plenty of valid and tough criticisms of banks to be made, including GS (and I should know since I have been involved in an investigative capacity in many of the major scandals of the last three decades) but you spoil your case by overstating it and writing inaccuracies.
0 -
I see that Shadsy has turnout bands up, and am tempted by 12/1 at 55-60%.
I can see that with apathy breaking out all over and the big 3 not enthusing their core vote that a low turnout is quite possible.
Or will the denominator be reduced too due to reduced registrations?0 -
Talking of trains, while I was planning my trip to Bethnal Green earlier today, I noticed all the pictures of the station on Wikipedia were taken by someone with exactly the same name as Sunil.Peter_the_Punter said:
Not as good as Brighton's though.Sunil_Prasannan said:
I like the Pier RailwayPeter_the_Punter said:
It will seem credible to anybody who has visited Southend.Pulpstar said:
Is that Rochford and Southend East or Southend West ?isam said:
The political bettors among us might have been more interested inScott_P said:It's a media conspiracy...
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes
That polling seems credible to me given the East coast.0 -
Kellner thinks they'll get 293 + 30 = 323. Seems a bit optimistic to me from the coalition's pov.Artist said:The Conservatives and Lib Dems can't afford to lose more than 36 seats between them to continue the coalition. The Conservatives would need to improve quite a lot in these last three months.
0 -
If you look at the story 'UKIP's Southend Branch has been in crisis' for months.Scrapheap_as_was said:
they were always wrong 'uns, all of them and UKIP is stronger still as a result.Scott_P said:It's a media conspiracy...
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
http://www.clactonandfrintongazette.co.uk/news/south_essex_news/11594512.Ukip_s_Southend_branch_in_crisis/
Still I suppose we must hope that the UKIP manifesto (when it finally comes out) is not based on the stuff we see in kipper tweets.
0 -
NB
Betfair sportsbook still have the LDs as evens for Cambridge.
DYOR..0 -
.0
-
F1: Lotus show new car (it seems), and aim for 'pinnacle' of F1:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/30986521
Well, they won't get the top prize but they should certainly improve on last season's monstrosity.
The spread betting will be interesting to see.0 -
I'm guessing it's the ICM style spiral of silence type jiggery-pokery.MarkSenior said:
Yes but table 7 just gives raw figures not how they have been obtained .Sunil_Prasannan said:
Just look at Table 7 guys, that's the table His Lordship uses for his write-up:Tissue_Price said:
Hmm, yes, that is a new table. Perhaps he will respond to an enquiry from OGH or TSE?MarkSenior said:
Yes he has Table 4 " This table has been weighted on the basis of past voting to be politically representative of the UK population as a whole and INCLUDING ONLY THOSE MOST LIKELY TO VOTE "Tissue_Price said:
He's not changed his methodology - there's always been a "THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS" table followed by a different "Published Voting Intention" one.MarkSenior said:
I agree , whilst it may be logical to introduce a change and make the Ashcroft polls directly comparable to Ipsos Mori only taking into account those 10/10 certain to vote , the change should be openly declared in advance .Pulpstar said:
Why has Lord Ashcroft changed his methodology ?MarkSenior said:
No a direct comparator would give a 3% Labour leadBenM said:Is the direct comparator in this poll giving Labour a 1 point lead?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/
This is a bad thing to happen imo.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/ashcroft-national-poll-con-32-lab-32-lib-dem-6-ukip-15-green-9/
Let me have a go:
From Table 6:
Con 2010 voters Refused and DK = 19. 50% = 10 (rounded up for simplicity)
Lab 2010 voters Refused and DK = 13. 50% = 7 (rounded up for simplicity)
LD 2010 voters Refused and DK = 20. 50% = 10 (rounded up for simplicity).
Table 4:
Con 167
Lab 174
LD 30
UKIP 83
Green 50
Total 535
Adding the figures above
Con = 167 + 10 = 177
Lab = 174 + 7 = 181
LD = 30 +10 = 44
UKIP 83
Green 50
Total 535 + 10 + 7 + 10 = 562
But then the LDs and the total don't match! Eight too few LDs in table 7 and three too few total respondents.
Puts the LDs on 8%.
Cons technically on 31% (31.49) but rounding to 31.5 you can be forgiven for rounding again to 32%!0 -
taffys said:
Are we looking at the possibility of the lib dems losing Kingston/Surbiton and even Twickers...???
Very much doubt it. But Sutton & Cheam could be in trouble. However, if numbers like this is widespread then anything is possible. But I would have thought Twickenham is safe, even safer than Bermondsey.taffys said:Are we looking at the possibility of the lib dems losing Kingston/Surbiton and even Twickers...???
0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-politics/11368822/How-do-we-keep-girls-safe.html
How very very depressing that this should be happening to British girls.0 -
For Labour that is a really small swing Con > Lab in London. I expected much bigger after such a strong performance in the locals in London.
This is a very poor poll for Labour in London, no other way to spin it, they should be looking for 7-8 point swings from Con > Lab at this stage, not a 4 point one.0 -
Will his next stop be at the one for those killed by communists? Or indeed the communists killed by British soldiers.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Skibbereen Eagle @theskibeagle · 2m2 minutes agoFalseFlag said:Tsiparis's first meeting with a foreign ambassador since being elected PM was with the Russian ambassador Andrey Maslov.
Message to Berlin? #AlexisTsipras' 1st act as Greek PM, deposits red roses at memorial to Greeks killed by Nazis όχι!
pic.twitter.com/N2W0aQBoAx0 -
I have retired from Diplomacy but will be interested to see regular updates posted!Morris_Dancer said:PB Diplomacy V:
Just Mr. Foxinsox left to confirm.
Been Russia in 2/3 games, so it'll be interesting to such which realm benefits from my wise diplomacy this time.
Just think, this game could finish with Mr Miliband in Number 10.0
