I agree , whilst it may be logical to introduce a change and make the Ashcroft polls directly comparable to Ipsos Mori only taking into account those 10/10 certain to vote , the change should be openly declared in advance .
He's not changed his methodology - there's always been a "THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS" table followed by a different "Published Voting Intention" one.
Yes he has Table 4 " This table has been weighted on the basis of past voting to be politically representative of the UK population as a whole and INCLUDING ONLY THOSE MOST LIKELY TO VOTE "
Hmm, yes, that is a new table. Perhaps he will respond to an enquiry from OGH or TSE?
Just look at Table 7 guys, that's the table His Lordship uses for his write-up:
Yes but table 7 just gives raw figures not how they have been obtained .
I'm guessing it's the ICM style spiral of silence type jiggery-pokery.
Let me have a go:
From Table 6: Con 2010 voters Refused and DK = 19. 50% = 10 (rounded up for simplicity) Lab 2010 voters Refused and DK = 13. 50% = 7 (rounded up for simplicity) LD 2010 voters Refused and DK = 20. 50% = 10 (rounded up for simplicity).
Table 4: Con 167 Lab 174 LD 30 UKIP 83 Green 50 Total 535
Are we looking at the possibility of the lib dems losing Kingston/Surbiton and even Twickers...???
Very much doubt it. But Sutton & Cheam could be in trouble. However, if numbers like this is widespread then anything is possible. But I would have thought Twickenham is safe, even safer than Bermondsey.
Both Ashcroft polling and local election results showed the LDs easily winning Sutton & Cheam.
So you can stop your playing of the man and deal with the actual argument.
Pfff. That's no fun at all. As it happens I think there are WAAAAY to many ex-GS staff who are now in senior positions in governments and regulators around the world. They are too influential and they have piss-poor ethics. They're referred to as the "vampire squid" for good reason.
I still think you've gone off the deep end on this. Tin-foil hattery.
Yeah, linking clearly documented facts from USA Today and the New York Times! It's sheer quackery!
It's amazing how some people have this instinctive reaction to defend the powerful even when provided with clear evidence about wrong-doing. It's as if they don't want to admit that much of the establishment is corrupt, because that means the world's a worse place than they wish to accept.
In my experience, newspaper reports of regulatory matters are rarely accurate. Indeed, they are invariably wrong on some key point. Relying on them weakens your case, especially when there is plenty of actual evidence - look at regulators' websites, for instance - of what has gone wrong in the financial sector.
But a good case is weakened by hysterical hyperbole.
Are we looking at the possibility of the lib dems losing Kingston/Surbiton and even Twickers...???
Very much doubt it. But Sutton & Cheam could be in trouble. However, if numbers like this is widespread then anything is possible. But I would have thought Twickenham is safe, even safer than Bermondsey.
Kingston could certainly be lost to the LibDems, as could S&C. I think they will certainly lose Brent, and Hornsey and Wood Green. Southwark is probably 50/50, with conservative tactical voting likely to be the only think that could save Simon Hughes.
Only Twickenham looks "save", and if the LibDems poll less than 8% countrywide, I'd expect them to lose that too.
RCS can defend himself. But there is a world of difference between being fined for a breach of regulatory rules and committing a criminal offence. The examples you have provided evidence the former. A magazine article is not evidence of the latter.
And second, there are plenty of valid and tough criticisms of banks to be made, including GS (and I should know since I have been involved in an investigative capacity in many of the major scandals of the last three decades) but you spoil your case by overstating it and writing inaccuracies.
These things go down as "rule breaches" rather than "law breaking" because the SEC always settles before taking things to court:
In the US, price-fixing is illegal under the Sherman Antitrust Act. Clearly what Goldman did with commodity markets is price-fixing. It just didn't go to trial because of a lack of enforcement. Why a lack of enforcement? Because the SEC doesn't want to upset Goldman Sachs (as the leaked Goldman/New York Fed tapes document clearly), and because politicians install industry lackeys as the head of the regulatory body.
Labour now wants Irish parties in #tvdebates. 'We can see no good reason to treat NI differently to rest of UK', source tells @politicshome
Might need a bigger podium ..
I'm sure, when I asked, someone told me that Ed had agreed to debate whoever the TV companies decided to put up. Was that a fib? Will all the people who called Cameron frit when he was negotiating be coming out to do the same about Ed?
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
The political bettors among us might have been more interested in
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes
Is that Rochford and Southend East or Southend West ?
That polling seems credible to me given the East coast.
It will seem credible to anybody who has visited Southend.
I like the Pier Railway
Not as good as Brighton's though.
Talking of trains, while I was planning my trip to Bethnal Green earlier today, I noticed all the pictures of the station on Wikipedia were taken by someone with exactly the same name as Sunil.
How weird. Do you have a link? I tried looking it up but didn't see any refs to photographers.
What were you doing there - visiting the Michael Young place? I used to live on Victoria Park Square. Tried to buy a place there recently but out of my price range now.
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
The political bettors among us might have been more interested in
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes
Is that Rochford and Southend East or Southend West ?
That polling seems credible to me given the East coast.
It will seem credible to anybody who has visited Southend.
I like the Pier Railway
Not as good as Brighton's though.
Talking of trains, while I was planning my trip to Bethnal Green earlier today, I noticed all the pictures of the station on Wikipedia were taken by someone with exactly the same name as Sunil.
How weird. Do you have a link? I tried looking it up but didn't see any refs to photographers.
What were you doing there - visiting the Michael Young place? I used to live on Victoria Park Square. Tried to buy a place there recently but out of my price range now.
Not sure given the huge volatility that Ashcroft has shown over previous weeks that a 3% fall can be called a "shocker" - it's not good but it could be 9% again next week.
The Conservative and Labour numbers have pitched around in recent weeks - the Conservatives led 34-28 not so long ago - now they are level or narrowly behind.
Labour now wants Irish parties in #tvdebates. 'We can see no good reason to treat NI differently to rest of UK', source tells @politicshome
Might need a bigger podium ..
I'm sure, when I asked, someone told me that Ed had agreed to debate whoever the TV companies decided to put up. Was that a fib? Will all the people who called Cameron frit when he was negotiating be coming out to do the same about Ed?
So would that be 11 in the debates ? How about the speaker - does he want in ?
Mr. Saddened, quite, although the point about Northern Irish parties is sound.
NI is different because the main NI parties only campaign in NI, whereas Scotland and Wales only have one additional party, the rest are the same (although the relative strengths are different). By having a debate with Con, Lab, LDs, UKIP, Greens, SNP and PC you have a debate that can be shown anywhere in GB because the voters will see the main parties they will be able to vote for. There is no need to show the debate in NI. They will just have to have another one - or get round to having proper non-sectarian political parties.
For Labour that is a really small swing Con > Lab in London. I expected much bigger after such a strong performance in the locals in London.
This is a very poor poll for Labour in London, no other way to spin it, they should be looking for 7-8 point swings from Con > Lab at this stage, not a 4 point one.
But it is a bigger lead than YouGov were giving them last month - or indeed in April 2014 ie 9 months ago and before the local elections!
In the US, price-fixing is illegal under the Sherman Antitrust Act. Clearly what Goldman did with commodity markets is price-fixing. It just didn't go to trial because of a lack of enforcement. Why a lack of enforcement? Because the SEC doesn't want to upset Goldman Sachs (as the leaked Goldman/New York Fed tapes document clearly), and because politicians install industry lackeys as the head of the regulatory body.
Regulators assess the evidence and determine whether the evidence supports the matter being taken forward as a regulatory matter or as a criminal matter. If the latter, the standard of proof is higher and the case will take longer. Double jeopardy rules may apply. There is also the question of whether the regulator is taking action against a company or an individual or both. The regulator also has to balance the need to send a message out to the rest of the market i.e. it may make more sense to get an early settlement rather than a conviction of an individual many years later when the matter is often forgotten and the chance of changing others' behaviour is lost.
There are also issues relating to jurisdiction, whether other regulators are involved and what they might want to do etc. In the US you ignore the DoJ and the NYT A-G, for instance. There are a number of different factors involved and, funnily enough, regulators have to take action within their own powers and the applicable laws.
You throw around statements such as "clearly what X did is price fixing" when anyone who works in this field - and I am talking about lawyers and regulators here, rather than bankers - will tell you that the last thing you can say is that it is clear that X did what you allege. If it were clear, regulators and courts would jump at the chance of convicting people / companies.
I don't mean to be rude but you really do not know what you are talking about when it comes to these matters. There is a good case to be made against the financial sector but you are not making it by picking up bits here and there culled from press stories.
All this started with GS's role advising the Greek government. The role of the banks is one thing. But never forget that it was governments who made the decision to massage the figures in order to qualify for euro membership. Best to aim fire at the organ grinder rather than the monkey.
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
The political bettors among us might have been more interested in
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes
Is that Rochford and Southend East or Southend West ?
That polling seems credible to me given the East coast.
It will seem credible to anybody who has visited Southend.
I like the Pier Railway
Not as good as Brighton's though.
Talking of trains, while I was planning my trip to Bethnal Green earlier today, I noticed all the pictures of the station on Wikipedia were taken by someone with exactly the same name as Sunil.
How weird. Do you have a link? I tried looking it up but didn't see any refs to photographers.
What were you doing there - visiting the Michael Young place? I used to live on Victoria Park Square. Tried to buy a place there recently but out of my price range now.
I think he meant the pics OF the station ON Wikipedia:
Was during my epic station-hopping campaign of 2008-2009, where I visited every station either marked on the London Oystercard map, or geographically inside the M25.
Mr. Lilburne, it's not defensible to include Plaid but not the DUP, or Sinn Fein, I think.
Nonsense.
Plaid are a Major Party in Wales competing against Major Parties which will be in the debate. No NI Major Party is represented in the debate so no Major Party in NI would be disadvantaged.
The only problem is Ofcom's ridiculous refusal to confirm the Green part as a major party in England but as the Ofcom paper was a consultation, hopefully the right arms will be twisted to fix this.
Labour now wants Irish parties in #tvdebates. 'We can see no good reason to treat NI differently to rest of UK', source tells @politicshome
Might need a bigger podium ..
I'm sure, when I asked, someone told me that Ed had agreed to debate whoever the TV companies decided to put up. Was that a fib? Will all the people who called Cameron frit when he was negotiating be coming out to do the same about Ed?
So would that be 11 in the debates ? How about the speaker - does he want in ?
Perhaps we could just have every MP involved. And we could call it something. I dunno. How does "Parliament" sound?
Mr. Saddened, quite, although the point about Northern Irish parties is sound.
NI is different because the main NI parties only campaign in NI, whereas Scotland and Wales only have one additional party, the rest are the same (although the relative strengths are different). By having a debate with Con, Lab, LDs, UKIP, Greens, SNP and PC you have a debate that can be shown anywhere in GB because the voters will see the main parties they will be able to vote for. There is no need to show the debate in NI. They will just have to have another one - or get round to having proper non-sectarian political parties.
For Westminster elections ONLY, the main NI parties should declare whether they are pro-Con (UUP?, DUP?), pro-Lab (SDLP? PUP?), Pro-LD (Alliance?) or Nationalist (SF and SDLP?).
'Not sure given the huge volatility that Ashcroft has shown over previous weeks that a 3% fall can be called a "shocker" - it's not good but it could be 9% again next week.'
'Not sure given the huge volatility that Ashcroft has shown over previous weeks that a 3% fall can be called a "shocker" - it's not good but it could be 9% again next week.'
In the US, price-fixing is illegal under the Sherman Antitrust Act. Clearly what Goldman did with commodity markets is price-fixing. It just didn't go to trial because of a lack of enforcement. Why a lack of enforcement? Because the SEC doesn't want to upset Goldman Sachs (as the leaked Goldman/New York Fed tapes document clearly), and because politicians install industry lackeys as the head of the regulatory body.
Regulators assess the evidence and determine whether the evidence supports the matter being taken forward as a regulatory matter or as a criminal matter. If the latter, the standard of proof is higher and the case will take longer. Double jeopardy rules may apply. There is also the question of whether the regulator is taking action against a company or an individual or both. The regulator also has to balance the need to send a message out to the rest of the market i.e. it may make more sense to get an early settlement rather than a conviction of an individual many years later when the matter is often forgotten and the chance of changing others' behaviour is lost.
There are also issues relating to jurisdiction, whether other regulators are involved and what they might want to do etc. In the US you ignore the DoJ and the NYT A-G, for instance. There are a number of different factors involved and, funnily enough, regulators have to take action within their own powers and the applicable laws.
You throw around statements such as "clearly what X did is price fixing" when anyone who works in this field - and I am talking about lawyers and regulators here, rather than bankers - will tell you that the last thing you can say is that it is clear that X did what you allege. If it were clear, regulators and courts would jump at the chance of convicting people / companies.
I don't mean to be rude but you really do not know what you are talking about when it comes to these matters. There is a good case to be made against the financial sector but you are not making it by picking up bits here and there culled from press stories.
All this started with GS's role advising the Greek government. The role of the banks is one thing. But never forget that it was governments who made the decision to massage the figures in order to qualify for euro membership. Best to aim fire at the organ grinder rather than the monkey.
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
The political bettors among us might have been more interested in
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes
Is that Rochford and Southend East or Southend West ?
That polling seems credible to me given the East coast.
It will seem credible to anybody who has visited Southend.
I like the Pier Railway
Not as good as Brighton's though.
Talking of trains, while I was planning my trip to Bethnal Green earlier today, I noticed all the pictures of the station on Wikipedia were taken by someone with exactly the same name as Sunil.
How weird. Do you have a link? I tried looking it up but didn't see any refs to photographers.
What were you doing there - visiting the Michael Young place? I used to live on Victoria Park Square. Tried to buy a place there recently but out of my price range now.
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
The political bettors among us might have been more interested in
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes
Possibly until the news of ''4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ''
Any one know why these councillors disowned their PPC?
Surely not some one imposed from above?
The PCC allegedly used a ukip database to canvass for support to defeat the UKIP group leader. Allegedly. Plus they allegedly do not like each other. Its all about the new politics. Allegedly.
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
The political bettors among us might have been more interested in
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes
Is that Rochford and Southend East or Southend West ?
That polling seems credible to me given the East coast.
It will seem credible to anybody who has visited Southend.
I like the Pier Railway
Not as good as Brighton's though.
Talking of trains, while I was planning my trip to Bethnal Green earlier today, I noticed all the pictures of the station on Wikipedia were taken by someone with exactly the same name as Sunil.
How weird. Do you have a link? I tried looking it up but didn't see any refs to photographers.
What were you doing there - visiting the Michael Young place? I used to live on Victoria Park Square. Tried to buy a place there recently but out of my price range now.
I think he meant the pics OF the station ON Wikipedia:
Was during my epic station-hopping campaign of 2008-2009, where I visited every station either marked on the London Oystercard map, or geographically inside the M25.
Stunning! They're great pics, Sunil.
One or two of the people in them look familiar. I was living just behind the Green at the time.
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
The political bettors among us might have been more interested in
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes
Is that Rochford and Southend East or Southend West ?
That polling seems credible to me given the East coast.
It will seem credible to anybody who has visited Southend.
I like the Pier Railway
Not as good as Brighton's though.
Talking of trains, while I was planning my trip to Bethnal Green earlier today, I noticed all the pictures of the station on Wikipedia were taken by someone with exactly the same name as Sunil.
How weird. Do you have a link? I tried looking it up but didn't see any refs to photographers.
What were you doing there - visiting the Michael Young place? I used to live on Victoria Park Square. Tried to buy a place there recently but out of my price range now.
Just click on the photos on Wikipedia.
Got it.
I think he owes an explanation.
Took me over a year but didn't want to rush things! Also visited newer London stations built/relocated since then, naturally!
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
The political bettors among us might have been more interested in
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes
Is that Rochford and Southend East or Southend West ?
That polling seems credible to me given the East coast.
It will seem credible to anybody who has visited Southend.
I like the Pier Railway
Not as good as Brighton's though.
Talking of trains, while I was planning my trip to Bethnal Green earlier today, I noticed all the pictures of the station on Wikipedia were taken by someone with exactly the same name as Sunil.
How weird. Do you have a link? I tried looking it up but didn't see any refs to photographers.
What were you doing there - visiting the Michael Young place? I used to live on Victoria Park Square. Tried to buy a place there recently but out of my price range now.
I think he meant the pics OF the station ON Wikipedia:
Was during my epic station-hopping campaign of 2008-2009, where I visited every station either marked on the London Oystercard map, or geographically inside the M25.
Stunning! They're great pics, Sunil.
One or two of the people in them look familiar. I was living just behind the Green at the time.
Labour now wants Irish parties in #tvdebates. 'We can see no good reason to treat NI differently to rest of UK', source tells @politicshome
Might need a bigger podium ..
I'm sure, when I asked, someone told me that Ed had agreed to debate whoever the TV companies decided to put up. Was that a fib? Will all the people who called Cameron frit when he was negotiating be coming out to do the same about Ed?
So would that be 11 in the debates ? How about the speaker - does he want in ?
Perhaps we could just have every MP involved. And we could call it something. I dunno. How does "Parliament" sound?
I see that the Lib Dems seem to have accepted that from their perspective an unfavourable format for the debates is better than no debates at all.
I prefer to think that as believers in plural democracy it's important that as many voices as possible should be heard and that debate shouldn't be drowned out by the two major parties.
Whether the format for the debate is "favourable" or not doesn't matter - what matters is the electorate being presented with and able to question and compare the divergent views on offer.
In the US, price-fixing is illegal under the Sherman Antitrust Act. Clearly what Goldman did with commodity markets is price-fixing. It just didn't go to trial because of a lack of enforcement. Why a lack of enforcement? Because the SEC doesn't want to upset Goldman Sachs (as the leaked Goldman/New York Fed tapes document clearly), and because politicians install industry lackeys as the head of the regulatory body.
Regulators assess the evidence and determine whether the evidence supports the matter being taken forward as a regulatory matter or as a criminal matter. If the latter, the standard of proof is higher and the case will take longer. Double jeopardy rules may apply. There is also the question of whether the regulator is taking action against a company or an individual or both. The regulator also has to balance the need to send a message out to the rest of the market i.e. it may make more sense to get an early settlement rather than a conviction of an individual many years later when the matter is often forgotten and the chance of changing others' behaviour is lost.
There are also issues relating to jurisdiction, whether other regulators are involved and what they might want to do etc. In the US you ignore the DoJ and the NYT A-G, for instance. There are a number of different factors involved and, funnily enough, regulators have to take action within their own powers and the applicable laws.
You throw around statements such as "clearly what X did is price fixing" when anyone who works in this field - and I am talking about lawyers and regulators here, rather than bankers - will tell you that the last thing you can say is that it is clear that X did what you allege. If it were clear, regulators and courts would jump at the chance of convicting people / companies.
I don't mean to be rude but you really do not know what you are talking about when it comes to these matters. There is a good case to be made against the financial sector but you are not making it by picking up bits here and there culled from press stories.
All this started with GS's role advising the Greek government. The role of the banks is one thing. But never forget that it was governments who made the decision to massage the figures in order to qualify for euro membership. Best to aim fire at the organ grinder rather than the monkey.
Goldmans is the organ grinder.
I'm sure you know best and my 30 years experience and actual knowledge of the cases can't possibly compete.
I see that the Lib Dems seem to have accepted that from their perspective an unfavourable format for the debates is better than no debates at all.
I prefer to think that as believers in plural democracy it's important that as many voices as possible should be heard and that debate shouldn't be drowned out by the two major parties.
Whether the format for the debate is "favourable" or not doesn't matter - what matters is the electorate being presented with and able to question and compare the divergent views on offer.
Are we looking at the possibility of the lib dems losing Kingston/Surbiton and even Twickers...???
Very much doubt it. But Sutton & Cheam could be in trouble. However, if numbers like this is widespread then anything is possible. But I would have thought Twickenham is safe, even safer than Bermondsey.
Kingston could certainly be lost to the LibDems, as could S&C. I think they will certainly lose Brent, and Hornsey and Wood Green. Southwark is probably 50/50, with conservative tactical voting likely to be the only think that could save Simon Hughes.
Only Twickenham looks "save", and if the LibDems poll less than 8% countrywide, I'd expect them to lose that too.
Its hard to see the LDs holding many seats if they only poll 8%. But in a fractured contest there may be some loopholes. But the LDs are retreating from a relatively recent high position based on them being all things to all people. I would have thought that this makes them vulnerable to desertion by voters who do not have a strong attachment.
I'm sure you know best and my 30 years experience and actual knowledge of the cases can't possibly compete.
And I'm sure that the big bosses included any and all of their nefarious dealings on a weekly memo that they sent around so the staff could read them over their Gold Blend.
Its hard to see the LDs holding many seats if they only poll 8%. But in a fractured contest there may be some loopholes. But the LDs are retreating from a relatively recent high position based on them being all things to all people. I would have thought that this makes them vulnerable to desertion by voters who do not have a strong attachment.
On the other hand, as has been stated here many times, the LDs have a strong ground game in their own seats and their MPs have strong personal followings.
I realise from a Conservative perspective you need every LD gain you can get to offset your losses to Labour but in terms of London my view has long been that while Brent Central and Hornsey & Wood Green are going to be very difficult, I suspect Simon H will hold on in Southwark (he did survive the 1997 and 2001 avalanches to be fair).
As for the south-west London seats, C&W and S&C look good hold prospects to me based on the local results last year and the Ashcroft constituency polling. Twickenham will be tough and it's one I'm worried about while K&S is perhaps more hopeful than might be feared. A couple of reasonable by-election performances of late suggest we're a long way from an LD collapse though Ed Davey is in for a desperate fight.
Could be five LD losses (three to Labour and two to Con) as a worst case scenario - I'm incling to a net two to three losses (one to Conservative and two to Labour).
Tonight we're getting a ComRes, and a Survation poll tonight for the Mirror, the Mirror have commissioned a series of polls by Survation between now and the election.
I'm sure you know best and my 30 years experience and actual knowledge of the cases can't possibly compete.
And I'm sure that the big bosses included any and all of their nefarious dealings on a weekly memo that they sent around so the staff could read them over their Gold Blend.
Oh dear. You really do risk making a fool of yourself.
Tonight we're getting a ComRes, and a Survation poll tonight for the Mirror, the Mirror have commissioned a series of polls by Survation between now and the election.
Will be interested to see the UKIP share of the vote as they are typically very UKIP friendly. That is assuming its a national poll and not a constituency one.
Labour now wants Irish parties in #tvdebates. 'We can see no good reason to treat NI differently to rest of UK', source tells @politicshome
Might need a bigger podium ..
I'm sure, when I asked, someone told me that Ed had agreed to debate whoever the TV companies decided to put up. Was that a fib? Will all the people who called Cameron frit when he was negotiating be coming out to do the same about Ed?
So would that be 11 in the debates ? How about the speaker - does he want in ?
Perhaps we could just have every MP involved. And we could call it something. I dunno. How does "Parliament" sound?
Investment banks, which give their employees unprecedented degrees of freedom to make money, will likely end up paying fines and firing employees with alarming regularity. But this is also why compliance departments have become increasingly important within banks; because, in the real world, it is costly to hand over billions of dollars to regulators, and most banks would rather not do so.
The "unprecedented degrees of freedom" is all about turning the other way while you allow your employees to make money through dishonest and illegal means. The compliance departments are just there as a fig leaf so that the banks can claim "It was a bad apple! Nothing to do with me gov!" Compliance departments are regularly staffed with the least able people at a bank, because the banks aren't serious about actually stopping the illegal activity.
They're quite happy to pay fines if it allows them to engage in activity that makes more money than they pay out. These fines are considered as a cost of business: something to be kept to a minimum, but ready to be paid if they allow a greater revenue to be made. No organization who was serious about behaving in an ethical manner would have so many crimes be committed on such a regular basis.
Their corruption and lack of ethics is shown even further by the fact that they lean on American politicians to lean on the SEC not to press charges. The leaked Goldman tapes show that SEC officials were scared of angering Goldman in their investigations, because they know they would face retribution. Also see the amount of money they donated to Republican politicians to stop a consumer protection bureau being enacted.
Face it, Goldman Sachs is an immoral, corrupt organisation that only cares about their own greed for money, and doesn't give a damn about who is harmed by their actions.
You have provided no evidence, not even a shred, that Goldman Sachs is any different from any other firm in financial services. Nor that it is any more immoral than any other company. Your allegations regarding compliance are also completely off-base.
Essentially, you have decided they are criminal, and now seek to find evidence to back up your world view.
Cognitive dissonance.
I am not sure how many other firms have helped whole countries circumvent EU rules to allow them to enter a currency union. As immoral activities go that is quite a whopper.
Well, thank you. I certainly think the threat of non-attendance by certain Party leaders has concentrated minds though I'm not sure most people would have noticed.
We could easily have replaced David Cameron with an empty chair and no one would have noticed.
We could have replaced Ed Miliband with a small fridge freezer (light off) and no one would have noticed.
We could have replaced Nigel Farage with a small hatstand with a fedora or a trilby perched at a jaunty angle and no one would have noticed.
As for Nick Clegg, well, I couldn't possibly say, could I ?
Are we looking at the possibility of the lib dems losing Kingston/Surbiton and even Twickers...???
Very much doubt it. But Sutton & Cheam could be in trouble. However, if numbers like this is widespread then anything is possible. But I would have thought Twickenham is safe, even safer than Bermondsey.
Kingston could certainly be lost to the LibDems, as could S&C. I think they will certainly lose Brent, and Hornsey and Wood Green. Southwark is probably 50/50, with conservative tactical voting likely to be the only think that could save Simon Hughes.
Only Twickenham looks "save", and if the LibDems poll less than 8% countrywide, I'd expect them to lose that too.
I think Sutton & Cheam and Carshalton & Wallington are safe, and probably Southwark & Bermondsey, so long as Simon Hughes is candidate.
As I pointed out to you yesterday the MORI Scotland sample is not 775 but 1001. The lower figure refers to the "certain to vote" category. The base of the sample is 1001. This is the normal MORI methodology and has been for many years.
You may wish to believe or not believe the MORI results. That is your perogative, although the state of the Scottish polls seems clear enough across the polling organisations. However, you should not suggest that there is a difficulty with the size of the MORI sample becasue there is not.
I'm sure you know best and my 30 years experience and actual knowledge of the cases can't possibly compete.
And I'm sure that the big bosses included any and all of their nefarious dealings on a weekly memo that they sent around so the staff could read them over their Gold Blend.
Oh dear. You really do risk making a fool of yourself.
Why? Your points seem to be that the regulatory system is toothless, which excuses nothing, and that GS can rely on some kind of "we only did what we were paid to do" defence over Greece, which it can't.
How very very depressing that this should be happening to British girls.
On BBC1 at 2030 tonight I see. Sounds worth watching.
Indeed - but in the way that I feel I ought to watch the Hitchcock film made about the camps at the end of the war. It will sadden and enrage me.
This particular issue has been around for ages and ages - and heroic as the attempts to deal with are, it all seems too little too late. These girls simply aren't seen as important enough for people to make the sort of sustained, patient and consistent effort that's needed, year in, year out.
We're so busy passing Equality Acts and worrying about body image issues for women and size zeros in fashion that we forget the real plight of real girls and women who suffer in ways that the rest of us can only imagine. It's shameful.
Investment banks, which give their employees unprecedented degrees of freedom to make money, will likely end up paying fines and firing employees with alarming regularity. But this is also why compliance departments have become increasingly important within banks; because, in the real world, it is costly to hand over billions of dollars to regulators, and most banks would rather not do so.
The "unprecedented degrees of freedom" is all about turning the other way while you allow your employees to make money through dishonest and illegal means. The compliance departments are just there as a fig leaf so that the banks can claim "It was a bad apple! Nothing to do with me gov!" Compliance departments are regularly staffed with the least able people at a bank, because the banks aren't serious about actually stopping the illegal activity.
They're quite happy to pay fines if it allows them to engage in activity that makes more money than they pay out. These fines are considered as a cost of business: something to be kept to a minimum, but ready to be paid if they allow a greater revenue to be made. No organization who was serious about behaving in an ethical manner would have so many crimes be committed on such a regular basis.
Their corruption and lack of ethics is shown even further by the fact that they lean on American politicians to lean on the SEC not to press charges. The leaked Goldman tapes show that SEC officials were scared of angering Goldman in their investigations, because they know they would face retribution. Also see the amount of money they donated to Republican politicians to stop a consumer protection bureau being enacted.
Face it, Goldman Sachs is an immoral, corrupt organisation that only cares about their own greed for money, and doesn't give a damn about who is harmed by their actions.
You have provided no evidence, not even a shred, that Goldman Sachs is any different from any other firm in financial services. Nor that it is any more immoral than any other company. Your allegations regarding compliance are also completely off-base.
Essentially, you have decided they are criminal, and now seek to find evidence to back up your world view.
Cognitive dissonance.
I am not sure how many other firms have helped whole countries circumvent EU rules to allow them to enter a currency union. As immoral activities go that is quite a whopper.
I thought helping Greece hide the size of its deficit was after they were in the eurozone.
Are we looking at the possibility of the lib dems losing Kingston/Surbiton and even Twickers...???
Very much doubt it. But Sutton & Cheam could be in trouble. However, if numbers like this is widespread then anything is possible. But I would have thought Twickenham is safe, even safer than Bermondsey.
Kingston could certainly be lost to the LibDems, as could S&C. I think they will certainly lose Brent, and Hornsey and Wood Green. Southwark is probably 50/50, with conservative tactical voting likely to be the only think that could save Simon Hughes.
Only Twickenham looks "save", and if the LibDems poll less than 8% countrywide, I'd expect them to lose that too.
I think Sutton & Cheam and Carshalton & Wallington are safe, and probably Southwark & Bermondsey, so long as Simon Hughes is candidate.
Is the Sutton & Cheam MP very popular himself, or is it more that the Lib Dem council is very popular? If it's just the latter, I'm not sure I'd necessarily expect that to translate over to the general election (irrespective of what the Ashcroft polls say)
I'm sure you know best and my 30 years experience and actual knowledge of the cases can't possibly compete.
And I'm sure that the big bosses included any and all of their nefarious dealings on a weekly memo that they sent around so the staff could read them over their Gold Blend.
Oh dear. You really do risk making a fool of yourself.
Why? Your points seem to be that the regulatory system is toothless, which excuses nothing, and that GS can rely on some kind of "we only did what we were paid to do" defence over Greece, which it can't.
No - I didn't say either of those things. Rather that the regulatory system has a number of tools at its disposal and it is foolish - without knowing the facts - to assume as some posters today have done that the reason why a particular course of action was adopted was because of corruption or some other criminal or immoral behaviour.
Second, I didn't excuse GS or any other bank. What I did say was that the governments which took the actions they did are responsible for what they did. Blaming others for your own actions because you don't like the consequences of what you chose to do is the mark of the immature.
And finally investigators do not rely on reading or analysing what people - even bigwigs - choose to give them. Believe it or not. We find out what people don't want to tell us or think they have hidden. And it is very difficult indeed to hide things these days, certainly in banks and governments. It is amazing what otherwise apparently intelligent people will commit to a record.
In response to RCS who said this: "I thought helping Greece hide the size of its deficit was after they were in the eurozone."
A political decision was made to allow Greece to join the euro. Those who knew were perfectly well aware that its figures had been massaged and that it was not ready to join. They were warned. They ignored the warnings.
But politicians and others believed what they wanted to believe and hoped that it would all work out all right. They were wrong.
A bit late now to start getting all sanctimoniously priggish about what those governments and their advisors were up to.
A good job we are not in an election year and 100 days to go.....
They may be lucky and not have any photos of a gurning Nigel sharing a pint with him.
He probably fell out with somebody or lots of somebodies fell out with him. He seems a bit of a ranter. But don't worry, St Nige has been worried about him for quite a few months and UKIP are well shut of him now that he has come to the end of the road.
In response to RCS who said this: "I thought helping Greece hide the size of its deficit was after they were in the eurozone."
A political decision was made to allow Greece to join the euro. Those who knew were perfectly well aware that its figures had been massaged and that it was not ready to join. They were warned. They ignored the warnings.
But politicians and others believed what they wanted to believe and hoped that it would all work out all right. They were wrong.
A bit late now to start getting all sanctimoniously priggish about what those governments and their advisors were up to.
Whilst I tend to agree with most of what you're saying, you may want to be careful calling others priggish whilst playing the 'trust me, I'd a doctor' card in quite such a condescending manner.
In response to RCS who said this: "I thought helping Greece hide the size of its deficit was after they were in the eurozone."
A political decision was made to allow Greece to join the euro. Those who knew were perfectly well aware that its figures had been massaged and that it was not ready to join. They were warned. They ignored the warnings.
But politicians and others believed what they wanted to believe and hoped that it would all work out all right. They were wrong.
A bit late now to start getting all sanctimoniously priggish about what those governments and their advisors were up to.
It is hardly "sanctimoniously priggish" to object to lying and false accounting. I assume that's what you mean by "massaging the figures".
In response to RCS who said this: "I thought helping Greece hide the size of its deficit was after they were in the eurozone."
A political decision was made to allow Greece to join the euro. Those who knew were perfectly well aware that its figures had been massaged and that it was not ready to join. They were warned. They ignored the warnings.
But politicians and others believed what they wanted to believe and hoped that it would all work out all right. They were wrong.
A bit late now to start getting all sanctimoniously priggish about what those governments and their advisors were up to.
Whilst I tend to agree with most of what you're saying, you may want to be careful calling others priggish whilst playing the 'trust me, I'd a doctor' card in quite such a condescending manner.
Well if that's how it came across it was not my intention. I certainly was not accusing rcs or anyone else of it. I try and avoid making personal comments about other posters.
There is a very strong critique to be made of banks and governments, which has not been IMO been made strongly or devastatingly enough, largely because those who know are usually unable to talk and those who write about it - and I am referring to commentators/the press rather than anyone here - don't bother doing any effective research when there is quite a lot of material available.
Don't you mean highest Tory and lowest Labour? Please now can we have lots of posts about tables and methodologies and circles of silence and false memory and apportioning don't knows and Sun readers? I cannot wait, I miss them so.
Because someone needs to come up with an explanation of what's happening with the polls. I used to think all you had to say was 'Lord Ashcroft', but even that does not seem to make any sense any more.
This shows the plan with Goldman Sachs started prior to entry in order to allow Greece to show 'directionality' in reducing debt.
I am probably completely wrong ☺
To be fair it is an argument between the two sides. Greece and Goldman Sachs claim the swaps happened after entry whilst the various investigators say it was before... which makes more sense. Indeed the GS email to Eurostat which apparently shows that they agreed to the swaps dates from before entry.
In response to RCS who said this: "I thought helping Greece hide the size of its deficit was after they were in the eurozone."
A political decision was made to allow Greece to join the euro. Those who knew were perfectly well aware that its figures had been massaged and that it was not ready to join. They were warned. They ignored the warnings.
But politicians and others believed what they wanted to believe and hoped that it would all work out all right. They were wrong.
A bit late now to start getting all sanctimoniously priggish about what those governments and their advisors were up to.
It is hardly "sanctimoniously priggish" to object to lying and false accounting. I assume that's what you mean by "massaging the figures".
You assume wrong. False accounting is a specific criminal offence. Government accounts and statistics are - well, pretty much, what they want to tell you. I didn't use that phrase because to me it means something specific. That's all.
If the euro had worked out well for Greece, no-one would have given a tinker's cuss for what the Greek government and/or GS or anyone else did at the time.
@DCBMEP: Extraordinary Southend events as 4 UKIP councillors expel UKIP Westminster candidate & are then suspended by UKIP HQ: http://t.co/Amvy2MP2Sa
The political bettors among us might have been more interested in
""However, our campaigning in the constituency is going well. Private polls show we are ahead of the Tories now.""
given UKIP are 12/1 w Ladbrokes
Is that Rochford and Southend East or Southend West ?
That polling seems credible to me given the East coast.
It will seem credible to anybody who has visited Southend.
I like the Pier Railway
Not as good as Brighton's though.
Talking of trains, while I was planning my trip to Bethnal Green earlier today, I noticed all the pictures of the station on Wikipedia were taken by someone with exactly the same name as Sunil.
How weird. Do you have a link? I tried looking it up but didn't see any refs to photographers.
What were you doing there - visiting the Michael Young place? I used to live on Victoria Park Square. Tried to buy a place there recently but out of my price range now.
Just click on the photos on Wikipedia.
Got it.
I think he owes an explanation.
Took me over a year but didn't want to rush things! Also visited newer London stations built/relocated since then, naturally!
Are we looking at the possibility of the lib dems losing Kingston/Surbiton and even Twickers...???
Very much doubt it. But Sutton & Cheam could be in trouble. However, if numbers like this is widespread then anything is possible. But I would have thought Twickenham is safe, even safer than Bermondsey.
Kingston could certainly be lost to the LibDems, as could S&C. I think they will certainly lose Brent, and Hornsey and Wood Green. Southwark is probably 50/50, with conservative tactical voting likely to be the only think that could save Simon Hughes.
Only Twickenham looks "save", and if the LibDems poll less than 8% countrywide, I'd expect them to lose that too.
I think Sutton & Cheam and Carshalton & Wallington are safe, and probably Southwark & Bermondsey, so long as Simon Hughes is candidate.
I find it extraordinary that the Lib Dems are losing two-thirds of their 2010 votes and yet can manage to hold on to a seat which needs only 1.6% swing.
For , at least, two years or more we have found that more GE2010 Lib Dems will actually vote Labour than LD !! Recently there has been seepage towards both UKIP and the Greens [ both protest votes ]
I am wondering if there was an unpublished poll with the data gathered on Christmas Eve. If the changes refer to the last published poll the fieldwork was 18-19 Dec, not 24th.
How very very depressing that this should be happening to British girls.
On BBC1 at 2030 tonight I see. Sounds worth watching.
Indeed - but in the way that I feel I ought to watch the Hitchcock film made about the camps at the end of the war. It will sadden and enrage me.
This particular issue has been around for ages and ages - and heroic as the attempts to deal with are, it all seems too little too late. These girls simply aren't seen as important enough for people to make the sort of sustained, patient and consistent effort that's needed, year in, year out.
We're so busy passing Equality Acts and worrying about body image issues for women and size zeros in fashion that we forget the real plight of real girls and women who suffer in ways that the rest of us can only imagine. It's shameful.
The brutality of the Hitchcock film was numbing. In many ways I found the quiet matter of fact interviews in Shoah parts 1 and 2 even more disturbing.
Travelling across Eastern Europe last year, I could see the ghosts of the European Jewish civilisation everywhere.
Comments
If I end up with Turkey I shall instead declare myself Emperor of Byzantium.
Still, it puts the LDs on 7%, not 6%.
Possibly a typo or two in Table 7? Not the first time it's happened TBH.
But a good case is weakened by hysterical hyperbole.
Only Twickenham looks "save", and if the LibDems poll less than 8% countrywide, I'd expect them to lose that too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mavB1lbtIow
In the US, price-fixing is illegal under the Sherman Antitrust Act. Clearly what Goldman did with commodity markets is price-fixing. It just didn't go to trial because of a lack of enforcement. Why a lack of enforcement? Because the SEC doesn't want to upset Goldman Sachs (as the leaked Goldman/New York Fed tapes document clearly), and because politicians install industry lackeys as the head of the regulatory body.
What were you doing there - visiting the Michael Young place? I used to live on Victoria Park Square. Tried to buy a place there recently but out of my price range now.
Not sure given the huge volatility that Ashcroft has shown over previous weeks that a 3% fall can be called a "shocker" - it's not good but it could be 9% again next week.
The Conservative and Labour numbers have pitched around in recent weeks - the Conservatives led 34-28 not so long ago - now they are level or narrowly behind.
There are also issues relating to jurisdiction, whether other regulators are involved and what they might want to do etc. In the US you ignore the DoJ and the NYT A-G, for instance. There are a number of different factors involved and, funnily enough, regulators have to take action within their own powers and the applicable laws.
You throw around statements such as "clearly what X did is price fixing" when anyone who works in this field - and I am talking about lawyers and regulators here, rather than bankers - will tell you that the last thing you can say is that it is clear that X did what you allege. If it were clear, regulators and courts would jump at the chance of convicting people / companies.
I don't mean to be rude but you really do not know what you are talking about when it comes to these matters. There is a good case to be made against the financial sector but you are not making it by picking up bits here and there culled from press stories.
All this started with GS's role advising the Greek government. The role of the banks is one thing. But never forget that it was governments who made the decision to massage the figures in order to qualify for euro membership. Best to aim fire at the organ grinder rather than the monkey.
I do think turnout will be low though, and have bet at 5/6 on under 68.5%.
Taken by yours truly
Was during my epic station-hopping campaign of 2008-2009, where I visited every station either marked on the London Oystercard map, or geographically inside the M25.
Plaid are a Major Party in Wales competing against Major Parties which will be in the debate. No NI Major Party is represented in the debate so no Major Party in NI would be disadvantaged.
The only problem is Ofcom's ridiculous refusal to confirm the Green part as a major party in England but as the Ofcom paper was a consultation, hopefully the right arms will be twisted to fix this.
'Not sure given the huge volatility that Ashcroft has shown over previous weeks that a 3% fall can be called a "shocker" - it's not good but it could be 9% again next week.'
Surely 6% is rock bottom?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?search=volks+sunil060902&title=Special:Search&go=Go&uselang=en-gb
I think he owes an explanation.
Same thing, just going in a different direction.
Now, about these photos of Bethnal Green Station.....
'They've had a number of 6s so far this year:'
Thanks,I thought it was a one-off, that's being pounded like a dockside hooker territory.
One or two of the people in them look familiar. I was living just behind the Green at the time.
EDIT this was the most poignant:
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bethnal_Green_stn_memorial_plaque.JPG?uselang=en-gb
Whether the format for the debate is "favourable" or not doesn't matter - what matters is the electorate being presented with and able to question and compare the divergent views on offer.
No more allegations of criminality against Goldman Sachs from you going forward.
http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/11750440.UKIP_suspends_one_of_its_Hampshire_MP_candidates/
A good job we are not in an election year and 100 days to go.....
I realise from a Conservative perspective you need every LD gain you can get to offset your losses to Labour but in terms of London my view has long been that while Brent Central and Hornsey & Wood Green are going to be very difficult, I suspect Simon H will hold on in Southwark (he did survive the 1997 and 2001 avalanches to be fair).
As for the south-west London seats, C&W and S&C look good hold prospects to me based on the local results last year and the Ashcroft constituency polling. Twickenham will be tough and it's one I'm worried about while K&S is perhaps more hopeful than might be feared. A couple of reasonable by-election performances of late suggest we're a long way from an LD collapse though Ed Davey is in for a desperate fight.
Could be five LD losses (three to Labour and two to Con) as a worst case scenario - I'm incling to a net two to three losses (one to Conservative and two to Labour).
We could easily have replaced David Cameron with an empty chair and no one would have noticed.
We could have replaced Ed Miliband with a small fridge freezer (light off) and no one would have noticed.
We could have replaced Nigel Farage with a small hatstand with a fedora or a trilby perched at a jaunty angle and no one would have noticed.
As for Nick Clegg, well, I couldn't possibly say, could I ?
As I pointed out to you yesterday the MORI Scotland sample is not 775 but 1001. The lower figure refers to the "certain to vote" category. The base of the sample is 1001. This is the normal MORI methodology and has been for many years.
You may wish to believe or not believe the MORI results. That is your perogative, although the state of the Scottish polls seems clear enough across the polling organisations. However, you should not suggest that there is a difficulty with the size of the MORI sample becasue there is not.
This particular issue has been around for ages and ages - and heroic as the attempts to deal with are, it all seems too little too late. These girls simply aren't seen as important enough for people to make the sort of sustained, patient and consistent effort that's needed, year in, year out.
We're so busy passing Equality Acts and worrying about body image issues for women and size zeros in fashion that we forget the real plight of real girls and women who suffer in ways that the rest of us can only imagine. It's shameful.
Second, I didn't excuse GS or any other bank. What I did say was that the governments which took the actions they did are responsible for what they did. Blaming others for your own actions because you don't like the consequences of what you chose to do is the mark of the immature.
And finally investigators do not rely on reading or analysing what people - even bigwigs - choose to give them. Believe it or not. We find out what people don't want to tell us or think they have hidden. And it is very difficult indeed to hide things these days, certainly in banks and governments. It is amazing what otherwise apparently intelligent people will commit to a record.
"If so-and-so isn't going/is going, then I'm not going."
CON 31% (+2); LAB 30% (-2); UKIP 23% (+3); LD 7% (-4); SNP 5% (+2); GRE 3% (+1); OTHER 1% (0) - @Survation
Headline voting intention (with change in brackets since 24 December 2014):
CON 31% (+2); LAB 30% (-2); UKIP 23% (+3); LD 7% (-4); SNP 5% (+2); GRE 3% (+1); OTHER 1% (0)
A political decision was made to allow Greece to join the euro. Those who knew were perfectly well aware that its figures had been massaged and that it was not ready to join. They were warned. They ignored the warnings.
But politicians and others believed what they wanted to believe and hoped that it would all work out all right. They were wrong.
A bit late now to start getting all sanctimoniously priggish about what those governments and their advisors were up to.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/kirkcaldy-and-cowdenbeath/winning-party
Con 31 Lab 31 UKIP 21 LD 7 SNP 4 Gre 3
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Daily-Mirror-General-Election-Poll-I.pdf
So changes look wrong?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tnmkkLo1mE
This shows the plan with Goldman Sachs started prior to entry in order to allow Greece to show 'directionality' in reducing debt.
There is a very strong critique to be made of banks and governments, which has not been IMO been made strongly or devastatingly enough, largely because those who know are usually unable to talk and those who write about it - and I am referring to commentators/the press rather than anyone here - don't bother doing any effective research when there is quite a lot of material available.
Please now can we have lots of posts about tables and methodologies and circles of silence and false memory and apportioning don't knows and Sun readers?
I cannot wait, I miss them so.
Because someone needs to come up with an explanation of what's happening with the polls. I used to think all you had to say was 'Lord Ashcroft', but even that does not seem to make any sense any more.
If the euro had worked out well for Greece, no-one would have given a tinker's cuss for what the Greek government and/or GS or anyone else did at the time.
My parents and their families lived just down the road by London Fields. They might very easily have been killed too. You know it was a false alarm?
I heard that the locals had to fight a fair bit of opposition to have that plaque put up. It's quite recent, isn't it? Scandalous if true.
For , at least, two years or more we have found that more GE2010 Lib Dems will actually vote Labour than LD !! Recently there has been seepage towards both UKIP and the Greens [ both protest votes ]
Travelling across Eastern Europe last year, I could see the ghosts of the European Jewish civilisation everywhere.
:outlier-alert: