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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two Mondays ago the Populus and the Ashcroft had an 11 poin
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two Mondays ago the Populus and the Ashcroft had an 11 point gap over the LAB lead
Mondays have become the biggest polling day of the week witch at least three new surveys being reported. In the morning we get Populus online, the afternoon Lord Ashcroft and the normal YouGov in the evening. Today we’ve got a new London YouGov survey for the Evening Standard (see below).
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Except its wrong - it's a tie.
Gold standard - Labour version... ie ignore (until next week). Clearly an outlier. Tories obv 6% ahead.
Lord Ashcroft doesn't have a Labour lead.
In software companies, this is shown by dodgy sales deals to secure commission revenue.
In consumer electronics, there have been numerous examples of "side letters" which allowed buyers to back out of contracts under certain circumstances.
In finance companies (including, but not limited to, Goldman Sachs), employees have entered into transactions that have turned out to be illegal.
That human beings are greedy and will twist rules for personal profit is not news. Investment banks, which give their employees unprecedented degrees of freedom to make money, will likely end up paying fines and firing employees with alarming regularity. But this is also why compliance departments have become increasingly important within banks; because, in the real world, it is costly to hand over billions of dollars to regulators, and most banks would rather not do so.
Today it is Lord Ashcroft's turn, a fortnight ago it was the turn of Populus.
Regarding your 4/6 on Clegg getting the least percentage of the leaders
The odds have drifted and my mate at Betfair said that they were going to cut the prices on political bets v quickly if anyone half shrewd came on
I assumed no one touched the 4/6 other than mug money
Have you gone in again at 4/5? Is it a good bet we should all be backing?
No they don't.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 16s 16 seconds ago
Ashcroft National Poll, 23-25 January: CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 9%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm.
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All MoE mind you.
Minibus for Mister Day.....Minibus for Mister Day..... Your party of one is ready.....
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/01/lord-ashcroft-labour-and-the-conservatives-are-neck-and-neck-in-my-latest-poll.html
An infinite number - many do it repeatedly as if speaking to the deaf.
But you are of course right in pointing out the remarkable way in which these pollsters have converged. Herding. One of the most interesting links I have read in 2015.
Its a 32/32 draw, with the SNP at 3% in the Scottish sub sample.
Next....
Sweet Jesus above.
Reallocation of don't knows makes it a tie. That would imply that the figures for England only are Con 34%, Lab 34%, UKIP 16%.
They're quite happy to pay fines if it allows them to engage in activity that makes more money than they pay out. These fines are considered as a cost of business: something to be kept to a minimum, but ready to be paid if they allow a greater revenue to be made. No organization who was serious about behaving in an ethical manner would have so many crimes be committed on such a regular basis.
Their corruption and lack of ethics is shown even further by the fact that they lean on American politicians to lean on the SEC not to press charges. The leaked Goldman tapes show that SEC officials were scared of angering Goldman in their investigations, because they know they would face retribution. Also see the amount of money they donated to Republican politicians to stop a consumer protection bureau being enacted.
Face it, Goldman Sachs is an immoral, corrupt organisation that only cares about their own greed for money, and doesn't give a damn about who is harmed by their actions.
Still a decent swing to labour....all still to play for
We've all made mistakes.
I once headlined a piece saying ICM had a poll with the Tories 7% ahead when it was Lab 7% ahead.
Fortunately only JackW noticed.
Troll over and out.
Of course that doesn't alter the wider concern for the party, that it doesn't seem to be pulling itself up from the dire lows we've now become used to.
On Nigel Farage the groups were divided: a Ford Capri (“tinted windows, pimped”), with a “shiny exterior but then you look under the bonnet”...
Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB·2 mins2 minutes ago
Revised @LordAshcroft poll Tweet. The first survey from him this year that doesn't have LAB behind.
Just Mr. Foxinsox left to confirm.
Been Russia in 2/3 games, so it'll be interesting to such which realm benefits from my wise diplomacy this time.
The dire Scottish situation for Labour isn't being repeated in England, Labour is still doing fine in England, particularly in London.
But nevertheless if they lose seats in Scotland it'll make Most Seats a tricky ask for them.
However if the Conservatives lose seats in England, and the Lib Dems take the inevitable cream crackering in both Scotland and England then well it leaves Mr Cameron short of allies to form a coalition.
The collorary is that Ed Miliband is more likely to become the next PM than Labour having most seats. It also makes Labour most seats, Labour most votes a very narrow margin, if at all - Scotland will go from being a massively efficient driver of seats/votes to quite possibly being a terrible drag on Labour's overall efficiency... (If you believe its not the case take the Evens on Labour in West Dunbartonshire where they start off 40 pts ahead...) that makes Lab Seats, Con votes a lay in my book and thats precisely what I did this morning to "green up" the votes/seats book.
I'm maintaining my position on Ed Miliband next PM (& Ed Balls next CoTE), but have the green in Con votes and Con seats now in the seats/votes matrix.
Essentially, you have decided they are criminal, and now seek to find evidence to back up your world view.
Cognitive dissonance.
Anyway, the Conservatives are up 3% against the last from which we can take very little except that with poll convergence Lab/Cons seems to be around 32% ish. So the bigger story is the way the Green vote looks strong: 9%, and UKIP a long way shy of their 2014 surge.
And the other, even bigger, story is the LibDem slump. That's brilliant news for the Conservatives.
Anyway, moving on, Mike's highlighted the really big issue which is the LibDem slump. They're in serious trouble at this rate.
p.s. Waiting for Isam to point out that I'm referring to polls already, some 5 days too soon. Tut tut my bad.
EDIT: My goodness, I parsed that entirely incorrectly. Ignore.
Harry
I don't recall celebrating - more lolling at Audrey
I suppose if they'd compared one of the leaders to a single decker bus powered by vegetable oil or a cranky looking hippy on a 1960s bicycle they would have been taken as insults despite being meant as compliments
Labour likely to go into Feb with a wafer thin average lead.
Which is better than certain anti EdM pundits were predicting.
Have you admitted you were wrong yesterday re Cameron and Ms Oakeshott?
Your picture is a piss take of UKIP for pointing out the Tories ethnic slurs in Thurrock isnt it?
Face it. You can't defend their indefensible behaviour: forming cartels, price-rigging, lying to clients, leaning on regulators, hiding debt, buying opposition to regulations that help regular people but hurt their own bottom line. These are regular, common occurrences at Goldman and are so pervasive you can't pretend it's one or two that slipped through the net. You have an emotional defensiveness because you have worked for an utterly unethical organisation and have been unable to challenge any of this. That's cognitive dissonance.
Why has someone put 31-32 on Wiki?
This is just getting silly - we need consistent numbers - if you are capable of taking the trouble to update Wiki is it really too difficult to type in the correct numbers?
The question is - did Lord Ashcroft introduce the extra step to avoid publishing a poll with Labour 3% ahead or was he always planning this methodology change to come in now .
Just 7 days left to hunt out the value people.
Also, anyone interested in playing a game of "Which Scottish Consituency NOT polled by Ashcroft will see the largest SNP implied odds change?".
I'll go for Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill, and as a fall back incase that one is polled Ayrshire Central
Based on your insider knowledge of private polling etc
Surprised its not a headline tip, that's what the site is all about isn't it? Using our knowledge to come out with corking bets
I thought you had seen polling that said it was.. and now its 4/5 from 4/6 it must be even better?
"... we don't want to discourage Goldman from disclosing these types of things in the future, and therefore maybe you know some comment that says don't mistake our inquisitiveness, and our desire to understand more about the marketplace in general, as a criticism of you as a firm necessarily. Like I don't want to, I don't want to hit them on the bat with the head, and they say screw it we're not gonna disclose it again, we don't need to."
http://www.alternet.org/corporate-accountability-and-workplace/7-revelations-those-secret-goldman-sachs-tapes
I never said big bet.
You can, right now, get 2.25 on EdM to be PM after the election from either PP or b365.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/prime-minister-after-general-election
I guess there are probably limited stakes on that bet, but even on betfair you can get the same odds for about £400, which also gives the option to trade out later.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.116758783
That's just silly. The odds on EM & DC are basically the wrong way around. I've been nibbling at the EDM price in recent days, up to 2.38.
http://www.alternet.org/krugman-ending-delusional-nightmare-austerity-economics
Tories steaming in on most seats too, 1.92.
Interesting that BenM is sanguine about the polls. Ben is obviously a Labour supporter and his stance is intriguing. The polls on the whole are intriguing.
I really wanted the Tories to win the GE2010 but felt that - given the awful economic circumstances - they'd almost definitely be miles behind in the polls at this stage. I think the Tory hierarchy will likely be equally as sanguine as Ben, particularly given Ed Miliband's shortcomings (I see Ed Miliband as nice, clever and decent but woefully inadequate as leader - a very, very good backroom adviser, I suspect). To be level-pegging at this stage will not disturb the government.
At the next GE I'd like to see another Tory/Lib Dem coalition. I think the mixture of sound money and liberal values is a good one. I'm also very apprehensive about leaving the EU. I don't really trust the EU politicos; I don't like it's unaccountability and horse-trading and back-room deals, but I'm very unsure about leaving it. I like thought of a united, allied Europe. I want to be part of that without us losing our ability to make ALL our own laws.
I suspect Mr Cameron would quite fancy another coalition too, as his views on the EU are probably middle of the road too.
I'm gonna get slaughted now by the anti EU'ers...
But you wont take EVENS
SNP 35 Lab 37 Con 18 LD 3 UKIP 5 Grn 2
_____
That would translate into the following seats..
LAB….39 down two
SNP……15 up 9
CON….3 up 2
LIB….2 down 9.
Great night for all unless you’re a Lib/Dem.
That should keep Audreyanne balanced and happy until February.
Also according to her analysis people who get paid monthly will be paid this week.
So the conservatives will get a boost as they look at their credit card bills from christmas
The London poll shows the consequences compared to the 2010 election as well. This could really be carnage.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2771216/Fired-New-York-Fed-worker-unveils-46-hours-secret-taped-meetings-regulators-banking-giant-Goldman-Sachs-showing-government-bankers-pockets.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-secret-tapes-of-fed-meetings-on-goldman-prompt-call-for-us-hearings-2014-9?IR=T
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/09/30/delamaide-goldman-sachs-federal-reserve/16483611/
So you can stop your playing of the man and deal with the actual argument.
I still think you've gone off the deep end on this. Tin-foil hattery.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/
This is a bad thing to happen imo.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/21/business/a-shuffle-of-aluminum-but-to-banks-pure-gold.html?pagewanted=all
The story of how this works begins in 27 industrial warehouses in the Detroit area where a Goldman subsidiary stores customers’ aluminum. Each day, a fleet of trucks shuffles 1,500-pound bars of the metal among the warehouses. Two or three times a day, sometimes more, the drivers make the same circuits. They load in one warehouse. They unload in another. And then they do it again.
This industrial dance has been choreographed by Goldman to exploit pricing regulations set up by an overseas commodities exchange, an investigation by The New York Times has found. The back-and-forth lengthens the storage time. And that adds many millions a year to the coffers of Goldman, which owns the warehouses and charges rent to store the metal. It also increases prices paid by manufacturers and consumers across the country.
As expected, UKIP underperform their national equivalent in London, and the Greens overperform.