politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Interesting new leaders’ betting market – but where’s the v
This clearly is a competition between Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage and my inclination would be the latter. Thanet South looks as though it will be a tighter contest than Sheffield Hallam.
Comments
-
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/public-confidence-welsh-nhs-plummeted-8514414
Something to keep an eye on.
Owen Smith blaming David Cameron is pure political comedy gold.
Three of the top stories on Wales online are about the NHS crisis under labour.0 -
Haven't the Greens been outpolling the SNP lately?
0 -
@TheScreamingEagles
I don't care what edge you think you have with your access to private polling, I wan to take you on and will offer you EVEN money that Clegg will poll less than Farage
However much you like... are you game?0 -
If you're aware of private polling that shows CLegg as a decent choice in this match bet then he can't possibly be > 75% chance to hold Hallam - either that or we should get the house on UKIP at 4-6 in Thanet South. Which one is it ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Because I'm aware of private polling in the seats and betting based on that wouldn't be fair on you.isam said:
Yes I know, but sayingTheScreamingEagles said:
I expect them all to win their seats.isam said:
So which of the five don't you expect to win their seat? If you expect them all to, then it doesn't matter if you think Farage will win Thanet SouthTheScreamingEagles said:
I expect Farage to win Thanet South.isam said:
Really?? Surely Farage is the bet?TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting market, my money is on Clegg and Salmond
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8ReXyiIEAAZE9a.png
I think Farage is biggest in the betting to win his seat isn't he?
Havent done the research but on first look I'd rather be on Farage at 11/10
The bet is about who will get the lowest share of the vote regardless of winning or losing.
"I expect Farage to win Thanet South."
as justification for backing Clegg & Salmond implies you think him winning it has something to do with the bet.. it doesn't
So why is Clegg a better bet to win this market than Farage, despite being much shorter in the betting to win the seat?
Can I offer a side bet on vote percentage? Clegg vs Farage EVEN money, I'll take Clegg
Are Labour + Lib Dem doing considerably better worse? in Thanet South than the Tories + UKIP are doing in Sheffield Hallam - thats the only way this one can possibly be value0 -
0
-
Sam - Don't you think Clegg will poll MORE than Farage ?isam said:@TheScreamingEagles
I don't care what edge you think you have with your access to private polling, I wan to take you on and will offer you EVEN money that Clegg will poll less than Farage
However much you like... are you game?
Wait yes I see that's exactly what you're saying. 0 -
Compare & Contrast:
Ed on Greece:
"Just like our elections are a matter for the people of this country, so who the Greek people elect is a decision for them.
"It is the responsibility of the British government to work with the elected government of Greece for the good of Britain and Europe and not to play politics.
"And it is up to each country to choose its own path on how to deal with the economic and social challenges they face.
"We have set out our path for Britain: to make sure our country is fairer and more prosperous and balance the books."
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/111723/ed_miliband_responds_to_greece_election_result.html
Ed on France:
"The points of agreement we have were around the fact that the tide is turning against an austerity approach, that there needs to be a different way forward found.
"What President Hollande is seeking to do in France and what he is seeking to do in leading the debate in Europe is find that different way forward.
"We are in agreement in seeking that new way that needs to be found and I think can be found."
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-18966541
Wonder why he's dropped the tide is turning against an austerity approach, that there needs to be a different way forward found. line?
Surely that was what Greece was all about?0 -
To clarify, I fail to see how
1-3 Clegg (Hallam)
4-6 Farage (Thanet South)
And Evens Clegg to poll below Farage can possibly all be decent bets, especially since the Conservatives are 20-1 (Hallam) and Labour are 7-1 Thanet South.
Something isn't adding up there.0 -
Has Hodges told us yet why the election result in Greece is a disaster for Ed Miliband?0
-
@TheScreamingEagles probably wont take the bet.. he just cant admit to being wrong by saying Clegg was the value at 4/6Pulpstar said:To clarify, I fail to see how
1-3 Clegg (Hallam)
4-6 Farage (Thanet South)
And Evens Clegg to poll below Farage can possibly all be decent bets, especially since the Conservatives are 20-1 (Hallam) and Labour are 7-1 Thanet South.
Something isn't adding up there.0 -
Farage also has every man and his dog lined up in his constituency to take votes, meaning the winning bar should be lower than in Hallam.0
-
Its not often I agree with the Hon Dr Hunt, but the Green education policy is madness.
Green education policies include delaying the start of formal schooling until the age of six; ending the use of standardised achievement tests in schools; restricting data that would allow the publication of school league tables; abolishing the schools inspectorate Ofsted; and ending the status of academies and free schools.
http://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/jan/26/green-party-education-policies-total-madness-labour-tristram-hunt
“I am gravely concerned about low exam results and high dropout rates from children from disadvantaged backgrounds. But I understand that even wonderful schools can’t fully compensate for severe poverty and stress at home - which is why making the minimum wage a living wage, affordable and warm homes, and ensuring decent benefits are available to all who needs them, are education issues as well as social justice issues.”
So in effect, "never mind if you come from a poor home and would likely struggle at school, its okay, no need to try, we will give you a little house and a few quid in your pocket and you don't need to worry about doing anything with your life again"0 -
No, I don't think thats it - something odd is going on with the Hallam and Thanet South polling that he's seen to warrant such a tip.isam said:
@TheScreamingEagles probably wont take the bet.. he just cant admit to being wrong by saying Clegg was the value at 4/6Pulpstar said:To clarify, I fail to see how
1-3 Clegg (Hallam)
4-6 Farage (Thanet South)
And Evens Clegg to poll below Farage can possibly all be decent bets, especially since the Conservatives are 20-1 (Hallam) and Labour are 7-1 Thanet South.
Something isn't adding up there.
And I'd like to know since I'm on in both these markets, specially Hallam with a big fat red on Labour there.0 -
Seems to be busy tweeting about Paul Mason.SandyRentool said:Has Hodges told us yet why the election result in Greece is a disaster for Ed Miliband?
0 -
FPT
It's one thing to float and quite another to find that the question on which you have voted has changed radically (much as the Irish Question did in '1066 and All That'). Given the importance which the Unionists evidently attached to the Vow then (and in backpedalling now on what it was purported to mean) it was a pretty poor show. As indeed the current Tory view on such things shows.TGOHF said:
Again - where is the evidence that early response postal voters are in any way inclined to float ?Carnyx said:
How very odd. Mr Cameron et al were quite happy to change the goalposts of indyref after most of the postal votes had been returned.MarqueeMark said:On the debates, The Times is reporting that whilst the attendees might have been settled, the timings have not. Tories not happy about debates happening after postal votes have happened. Which rather suggests they are expecting a bounce when voters actually see Ed Miliband....
0 -
I can only assume rcs is having a temporary brain freeze. I struggle to believe someone can work making models in the financial sector for years and not know all this.geoffw said:
That source says "Also known as nominal GDP."rcs1000 said:@Socrates
Re current prices. It means at the prices of the current reporting period, i.e. with inflation taken out.
See: http://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=1165
What is the current reporting period for GDP in ,say, Q1 2001?
Answer: Q1 2001, of course.
So not "inflation adjusted". For that you need "constant prices". Could be constant 2001 prices or constant 2014 prices. The latter seems to be what you think "current prices" means.0 -
Some are better than others - but Despicable MEP seems oddly topical:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/film/11369224/UKIPFilmTitles-the-funniest-tweets.html0 -
Latest ARSE 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :
20 hours 20 minutes 20 seconds0 -
WTF
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/bbc/11369104/We-must-not-call-Charlie-Hebdo-killers-terrorists-says-BBC-boss.htmlTarik Kafala, the head of BBC Arabic, the largest of the BBC’s non-English language news services, said the term “terrorist” was seen as “value-laden” and should not be used to describe the actions of the men who killed 12 people in the attack on the French satirical magazine.
0 -
Did you remember to split the Greens into their [edit] three parties? (Seriously: could be a point to check in any betting on the Green vote.)Sunil_Prasannan said:Haven't the Greens been outpolling the SNP lately?
0 -
Carswell very weak performance on the Daily Politics today. Bad at explaining UKIP policies and almost ludicrous on the Bashir episode. Slightly better fending off direct attack on UKIP by chairman of discussion, Jo Coburn.0
-
Looks like the Eurozone is determined to force an early confrontation with Greece
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/11368634/Greece-must-bow-to-austerity-or-go-bust-says-EU.htmlGreece’s new far-Left leader will be told that the eurozone will only begin talks if he accepts all previous agreements on the unpopular cuts and economic restructuring, despite the fact that opposition to them has swept him and Syriza into power.
Not even playing around, we wont talk to you unless you agree to everything... Trying to humiliate a newly elected radical Prime Minister... no chance of that one going wrong then.0 -
Agree - No would have won comfortably without the Vow - which was pretty bland in any case. However has been embellished into whatever the SNP want it to be..Carnyx said:FPT
It's one thing to float and quite another to find that the question on which you have voted has changed radically (much as the Irish Question did in '1066 and All That'). Given the importance which the Unionists evidently attached to the Vow then (and in backpedalling now on what it was purported to mean) it was a pretty poor show. As indeed the current Tory view on such things shows.TGOHF said:
Again - where is the evidence that early response postal voters are in any way inclined to float ?Carnyx said:
How very odd. Mr Cameron et al were quite happy to change the goalposts of indyref after most of the postal votes had been returned.MarqueeMark said:On the debates, The Times is reporting that whilst the attendees might have been settled, the timings have not. Tories not happy about debates happening after postal votes have happened. Which rather suggests they are expecting a bounce when voters actually see Ed Miliband....
0 -
Well, ELBOW thus far has always been on a Great Britain basis. I presume all the pollsters (from which we derive our scores) include the Scots Greens with E+W Greens in their tables?Carnyx said:
Did you remember to split the Greens into their [edit] three parties? (Seriously: could be a point to check in any betting on the Green vote.)Sunil_Prasannan said:Haven't the Greens been outpolling the SNP lately?
0 -
Luckily, most PBers have now learnt to discern their ARSE from their ELBOW!JackW said:Latest ARSE 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :
20 hours 20 minutes 20 seconds
Remember, as we remind Lord Ashcroft every week, ELBOW is a snapshot, not a prediction!0 -
http://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/jan/26/green-party-education-policies-total-madness-labour-tristram-huntIndigo said:Its not often I agree with the Hon Dr Hunt, but the Green education policy is madness.
Green education policies include delaying the start of formal schooling until the age of six; ending the use of standardised achievement tests in schools; restricting data that would allow the publication of school league tables; abolishing the schools inspectorate Ofsted; and ending the status of academies and free schools.
“I am gravely concerned about low exam results and high dropout rates from children from disadvantaged backgrounds. But I understand that even wonderful schools can’t fully compensate for severe poverty and stress at home - which is why making the minimum wage a living wage, affordable and warm homes, and ensuring decent benefits are available to all who needs them, are education issues as well as social justice issues.”
So in effect, "never mind if you come from a poor home and would likely struggle at school, its okay, no need to try, we will give you a little house and a few quid in your pocket and you don't need to worry about doing anything with your life again"
Not much there from Hunt that could not have been written by Gove. Though are't the Finns ahead of us in the sainted PISA rankings despite not starting school till seven?
0 -
They just ask for "Green party".Sunil_Prasannan said:
Well, ELBOW thus far has always been on a Great Britain basis. I presume all the pollsters (from which we derive our scores) include the Scots Greens with E+W Greens in their tables?Carnyx said:
Did you remember to split the Greens into their [edit] three parties? (Seriously: could be a point to check in any betting on the Green vote.)Sunil_Prasannan said:Haven't the Greens been outpolling the SNP lately?
0 -
Not even playing around, we wont talk to you unless you agree to everything... Trying to humiliate a newly elected radical Prime Minister... no chance of that one going wrong then.Indigo said:Looks like the Eurozone is determined to force an early confrontation with Greece
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/11368634/Greece-must-bow-to-austerity-or-go-bust-says-EU.htmlGreece’s new far-Left leader will be told that the eurozone will only begin talks if he accepts all previous agreements on the unpopular cuts and economic restructuring, despite the fact that opposition to them has swept him and Syriza into power.
The EU doesn't give a damn about what the people think in such silly things as elections.0 -
Will Populus' Green rating of 6% herald the beginning of the end of the Green Surge?
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/559685444661960704
0 -
We shall see.. but I am here ready and waiting to take him on.. private polling or no, doesnt matter a thing to mePulpstar said:
No, I don't think thats it - something odd is going on with the Hallam and Thanet South polling that he's seen to warrant such a tip.isam said:
@TheScreamingEagles probably wont take the bet.. he just cant admit to being wrong by saying Clegg was the value at 4/6Pulpstar said:To clarify, I fail to see how
1-3 Clegg (Hallam)
4-6 Farage (Thanet South)
And Evens Clegg to poll below Farage can possibly all be decent bets, especially since the Conservatives are 20-1 (Hallam) and Labour are 7-1 Thanet South.
Something isn't adding up there.
And I'd like to know since I'm on in both these markets, specially Hallam with a big fat red on Labour there.0 -
Not even playing around, we wont talk to you unless you agree to everything... Trying to humiliate a newly elected radical Prime Minister... no chance of that one going wrong then.Indigo said:Looks like the Eurozone is determined to force an early confrontation with Greece
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/11368634/Greece-must-bow-to-austerity-or-go-bust-says-EU.htmlGreece’s new far-Left leader will be told that the eurozone will only begin talks if he accepts all previous agreements on the unpopular cuts and economic restructuring, despite the fact that opposition to them has swept him and Syriza into power.
Almost seems like they want to force them out0 -
The EU doesn't give a damn about what the people think in such silly things as elections.
Presumably the EU does care that people who incur debts pay them back.
If they don;t then everybody is in trouble.
0 -
These are the people we're supposed to trust to keep all our personal emails and social messaging confidential:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/27/world/europe/gchq-britain-prank-caller.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0
They can't even keep their own agency head's phone number secret. If they can be outwitted by a random high on drugs, God knows what information a rogue agent could hack into and abuse for personal gain or amusement.0 -
I think you'll find that everything Green is mostly hot air.Sunil_Prasannan said:Will Populus' Green rating of 6% herald the beginning of the end of the Green Surge?
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5596854446619607040 -
The EU doesn't give a damn about what the people think in such silly things as elections.Socrates said:
Not even playing around, we wont talk to you unless you agree to everything... Trying to humiliate a newly elected radical Prime Minister... no chance of that one going wrong then.Indigo said:Looks like the Eurozone is determined to force an early confrontation with Greece
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/11368634/Greece-must-bow-to-austerity-or-go-bust-says-EU.htmlGreece’s new far-Left leader will be told that the eurozone will only begin talks if he accepts all previous agreements on the unpopular cuts and economic restructuring, despite the fact that opposition to them has swept him and Syriza into power.
Who will blink first?0 -
Cluck, cluck, cluck:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30985531
David Cameron has said "good progress" has been made on coming up with a format for TV election debates that he would be willing to take part in. But he questioned why Northern Ireland parties had been left out... Asked whether he would "turn up" for the debates, scheduled to take place in April, Mr Cameron gave no commitment but indicated he was happy with the changes made.0 -
They have an extended pre-primary education, so while they're not at school, they're generally in some form of 'education'. Plus there's a free/reduced child care system, which I think is part of the same scheme. Certainly the standards for the pre-primary bit are all joined up to primary level education.DecrepitJohnL said:
Not much there from Hunt that could not have been written by Gove. Though are't the Finns ahead of us in the sainted PISA rankings despite not starting school till seven?
0 -
O/T (but relevant to last night's thread):-
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-30983027
Incidentally, I don't see why you couldn't make this a strict liability offence. So regular inspections by school nurses/GPs. If an under-age girl is found to have suffered FGM, the parents are criminally responsible. (I find it hard to envisage circumstances where a girl could suffer this without the knowledge / consent / co-operation of the parents.) The girl and any other sisters are made wards of court and, if necessary, taken into care.
FGM is a horrendous crime which causes great and life-long pain and harm, beyond even the removal of any sexual function. It is, to my mind, child abuse of a horrific kind. And I have never heard of any medical justification for it.0 -
Jo Coburn said that Bashir had accused UKIP of being racist to him.. really?
Haven't heard that.. sure we would have on here0 -
Is the Green surge worrying Labour?
http://labourlist.org/2015/01/tristram-hunt-slams-green-party-policies-as-total-madness/
Mirror running Vote Green and Get ISIS stuff this morning as well.0 -
Indeed they also spend 6.8% of GDP of education, compared to our 5.5%, so about a quarter as much again.BannedInParis said:
They have an extended pre-primary education, so while they're not at school, they're generally in some form of 'education'. Plus there's a free/reduced child care system, which I think is part of the same scheme. Certainly the standards for the pre-primary bit are all joined up to primary level education.DecrepitJohnL said:
Not much there from Hunt that could not have been written by Gove. Though are't the Finns ahead of us in the sainted PISA rankings despite not starting school till seven?0 -
Who will blink first?
If the troika blinks then every punter that ever borrowed a buck will want a renegotiation.
The notion of paying your debts seems to be going out of fashion.0 -
Lots of similarity between the rhetoric from EU bigwigs to Greece regarding "no flexibility" on debt and austerity as to the language they use regarding the Uk and re negotiation.
Except the Uk has a better hand than the Greeks - will be a good test as to whether fudge can be reached if the Greeks can get their way.
0 -
One of my good friends is in charge of a division of Betfair odds compiling (I think that's his job not 100% sure), but they have a new guy coming up with these markets, under his supervisionPulpstar said:
Quincel was looking for a job in that game, and isn't on here anymore...0 -
Btw Anyone get on Un De Sceuax at 8-11 yesterday. Couldn't believe it when I heard that was his price after he won, should have been 1-6 or so for that 3 horse race.0
-
Betfair have revised prices in the which leader/ex-leader will do best market - see above
0 -
Except the UK has a better hand than the Greeks
The Greeks have no hand. As they are about to find out, if the lenders have any sense.0 -
More Bashir Lies exposed. UKIP well rid of him.
http://order-order.com/2015/01/26/bashir-lied-about-times-illegal-immigrants-expose/0 -
Of course he struggles to defend UKIP - he is a tory. 'that tory'MikeK said:Carswell very weak performance on the Daily Politics today. Bad at explaining UKIP policies and almost ludicrous on the Bashir episode. Slightly better fending off direct attack on UKIP by chairman of discussion, Jo Coburn.
0 -
The line from Tory cheerleaders that he's not afraid of Miliband, that this is all clever politicking and he successfully achieved his goals and oh what a smart politician he is is looking less and less plausible with each passing day.Socrates said:Cluck, cluck, cluck:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30985531
David Cameron has said "good progress" has been made on coming up with a format for TV election debates that he would be willing to take part in. But he questioned why Northern Ireland parties had been left out... Asked whether he would "turn up" for the debates, scheduled to take place in April, Mr Cameron gave no commitment but indicated he was happy with the changes made.0 -
I had it in a trixie, unfortunately one lost. Even more surprising was Hurricane Fly's price given his record at the course etcPulpstar said:Btw Anyone get on Un De Sceuax at 8-11 yesterday. Couldn't believe it when I heard that was his price after he won, should have been 1-6 or so for that 3 horse race.
0 -
If Cameron was really so happy with this debate format he'd be jumping on it and pressuring the other parties to do the same. As it is he's acting exactly like somebody who's run out of good excuses and is hoping the problem will go away on its own.0
-
We know we cant trust the Intelligence Services to keep our information private, otherwise an external contractor like Snowden wouldn't have been able to walk off with thousands of classified documents he wasn't entitled to handle or cleared to read.Socrates said:These are the people we're supposed to trust to keep all our personal emails and social messaging confidential:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/27/world/europe/gchq-britain-prank-caller.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0
They can't even keep their own agency head's phone number secret. If they can be outwitted by a random high on drugs, God knows what information a rogue agent could hack into and abuse for personal gain or amusement.
Additionally anyone who thinks the government is just going to give the snooping powers to the intelligence services is naive, even after the Conservatives tightening up of RIPA it still lets organisations like the BBC use spying powers to see if you have paid your TV license (there was a case of this in the papers just last week). If that information is available to those organisations they will use it in court cases (like the license fee) and then it is part of the public record for all to see.0 -
On Greece, other than the tragic news of the death of Demis Roussos, and ignoring all the ins and outs of the loans, the IMF, what is in Greece's best interests etc etc, it seems to me that the mess Greece (and other countries are in) arises when you elevate a currency into some Golden Calf to be worshipped, to which all other considerations must be subsumed rather than see it for what it is (or should be): a store of value and a means of exchange.
A currency should exist for the benefit of the people. Whereas it seems that the people are being told that they should exist only for the benefit of the currency.
The euro has been fetishised beyond all reason, much like the Gold Standard in pre-war days, and with the same dismal result for ordinary people.
Quite why left-wing parties go along with this is a mystery to me.
If you want people to agree to austerity you need to persuade them not bark at them that this is what the euro requires - as if the euro were God. Euro politicians have been appalling at being honest about the euro and this fundamental dishonesty has tainted everything to do with it. It's hardly surprising if Greek politicians are being equally dishonest in their turn.0 -
@JoeMurphyLondon: Exclusive London poll: @YouGov finds Lib Dems fall to FIFTH place for the first time in the capital
http://t.co/8OkFQJltkK0 -
Its almost as if his "well I might not turn up" approach hasn't worked extremely well..Stereotomy said:
The line from Tory cheerleaders that he's not afraid of Miliband, that this is all clever politicking and he successfully achieved his goals and oh what a smart politician he is is looking less and less plausible with each passing day.Socrates said:Cluck, cluck, cluck:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30985531
David Cameron has said "good progress" has been made on coming up with a format for TV election debates that he would be willing to take part in. But he questioned why Northern Ireland parties had been left out... Asked whether he would "turn up" for the debates, scheduled to take place in April, Mr Cameron gave no commitment but indicated he was happy with the changes made.
0 -
Indigo said:
Tarik Kafala, the head of BBC Arabic, the largest of the BBC’s non-English language news services, said the term “terrorist” was seen as “value-laden” and should not be used to describe the actions of the men who killed 12 people in the attack on the French satirical magazine.
Let's call them murderers then. Or is that another "value-laden" word?
0 -
Cameron in to 5/2!!MikeSmithson said:Betfair have revised prices in the which leader/ex-leader will do best market - see above
Notice Clegg drifting/Farage shortening in the other market.. TSE will have to go in a gain at the new bigger price0 -
" An internal investigation by UKIP’s lawyers carried out last July found “Mr Bashir had put in the resignation 3 days after the raid but back-dated it to a month earlier”."MikeK said:More Bashir Lies exposed. UKIP well rid of him.
http://order-order.com/2015/01/26/bashir-lied-about-times-illegal-immigrants-expose/
LAST JULY ?
0 -
Cameron doesn't want to do them. Too much to lose. Neither would Gordon if he had not had nothing left to lose.Stereotomy said:
The line from Tory cheerleaders that he's not afraid of Miliband, that this is all clever politicking and he successfully achieved his goals and oh what a smart politician he is is looking less and less plausible with each passing day.Socrates said:Cluck, cluck, cluck:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30985531
David Cameron has said "good progress" has been made on coming up with a format for TV election debates that he would be willing to take part in. But he questioned why Northern Ireland parties had been left out... Asked whether he would "turn up" for the debates, scheduled to take place in April, Mr Cameron gave no commitment but indicated he was happy with the changes made.0 -
I feel sorry for the Greens sometimes. They are true idealists and there's nothing wrong with that. But paying people to be happy with not working and thus consuming less is a road to ruin.
Even St Paul had to explain this to a nascent Christian community... "If anyone is not willing to work, let him not eat." Mind you, this was Thessalonika and you know what those Greeks are like.
I felt the same idealism at fifteen and I sometimes look back and remember the quote from 'Lord of the Flies'. -" And he cried for the loss of innocence."0 -
Today's Populus has an "others" total of 3% - the lowest by any pollster so far this year.0
-
OT The Fourth Lectern by pb's Andy Cooke (99p for kindle).
Downloaded after it was plugged on here the other day, and finished it this morning. Good to see Nick Palmer held on.
I think AC can make corrections to ebooks, so a mindless pedant writes: the Croydon result got a bit confused; and there's an extra word near Charles Clarke.0 -
They have a hand alright - the pride of the EU if it lost a member country - and the possible domino effect.
The best way to avoid the domino effect is to kick Greece out of the euro and let the rest of Europe see the result. It sure won;t be pretty.
Its if the troika gives in that we will see the domino effect, I'd have thought0 -
Did Dave keep the receipt?TGOHF said:
" An internal investigation by UKIP’s lawyers carried out last July found “Mr Bashir had put in the resignation 3 days after the raid but back-dated it to a month earlier”."MikeK said:More Bashir Lies exposed. UKIP well rid of him.
http://order-order.com/2015/01/26/bashir-lied-about-times-illegal-immigrants-expose/
LAST JULY ?0 -
Labour leads in ELBOW since August. Latest ELBOW lead 0.9% (week-ending 25th Jan):
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5596924291260129280 -
Interesting take on the story thereScott_P said:@JoeMurphyLondon: Exclusive London poll: @YouGov finds Lib Dems fall to FIFTH place for the first time in the capital
http://t.co/8OkFQJltkK
"An exclusive poll today suggests Labour could seize up to eight of its London target seats at the general election, putting Ed Miliband a step closer to 10 Downing Street."0 -
i just dont get how Greece thinks that it does not have to pay its debts.
It will have to leave the Euro and will then have a horribly weak currency.
Greece is a country with no fossil fuels, very limited manufacturing and industry. Its main industry in tourism. It has to import oil, gas etc. It will have to buy this up front with a very weak currency. How is that going to work.
The greek people clearly want to return to the good old days when hairdressers could retire at 50 on a full state pension because their trade was dangerous.
It will be a few years of nightmares for all those people celebrating last night.0 -
Well if they don't take Brent Central I'm stuffed. Ealing Central and Acton has been tipped up by Antifrank of this parish and is a decent bet, I thought my 15-8 on them in Bermondsey is probably a loser but maybe not.isam said:
Interesting take on the story thereScott_P said:@JoeMurphyLondon: Exclusive London poll: @YouGov finds Lib Dems fall to FIFTH place for the first time in the capital
http://t.co/8OkFQJltkK
"An exclusive poll today suggests Labour could seize up to eight of its London target seats at the general election, putting Ed Miliband a step closer to 10 Downing Street."0 -
My mobile phone company wants my passport number in order to let me view an often obscene, but more frequently funny, online comic by the name of Oglaf (NSFW, but worth looking at).
Is this piece of ridiculousness a piece of governmental interference, or has my phone company taken upon itself to restrict my internet access?0 -
What happened to the Dan Hodges Mansion Tax theory that Lab were doomed in London?isam said:
Interesting take on the story thereScott_P said:@JoeMurphyLondon: Exclusive London poll: @YouGov finds Lib Dems fall to FIFTH place for the first time in the capital
http://t.co/8OkFQJltkK
"An exclusive poll today suggests Labour could seize up to eight of its London target seats at the general election, putting Ed Miliband a step closer to 10 Downing Street."
0 -
This seems embarrassing for both parties, and I'm not sure this "well it's worse for YOU" stuff between the supporters of each is doing either any good.isam said:
Did Dave keep the receipt?TGOHF said:
" An internal investigation by UKIP’s lawyers carried out last July found “Mr Bashir had put in the resignation 3 days after the raid but back-dated it to a month earlier”."MikeK said:More Bashir Lies exposed. UKIP well rid of him.
http://order-order.com/2015/01/26/bashir-lied-about-times-illegal-immigrants-expose/
LAST JULY ?0 -
Not even playing around, we wont talk to you unless you agree to everything... Trying to humiliate a newly elected radical Prime Minister... no chance of that one going wrong then.Indigo said:Looks like the Eurozone is determined to force an early confrontation with Greece
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/11368634/Greece-must-bow-to-austerity-or-go-bust-says-EU.htmlGreece’s new far-Left leader will be told that the eurozone will only begin talks if he accepts all previous agreements on the unpopular cuts and economic restructuring, despite the fact that opposition to them has swept him and Syriza into power.
The EU - as currently constituted - does its level best to make people think that there has to be a choice between being pro-EU or being pro-democracy.
If people who have voted are not listened to, the risk is they will turn to something else - something much less palatable.
Is there no-one in Brussels or Frankfurt who has even a cursory knowledge of Greek or recent European history?0 -
5-2 sounds much more sensible, glad to be on at 7-1.isam said:
Cameron in to 5/2!!MikeSmithson said:Betfair have revised prices in the which leader/ex-leader will do best market - see above
Notice Clegg drifting/Farage shortening in the other market.. TSE will have to go in a gain at the new bigger price0 -
Sunil, if you calculate it as the Green lead over the Lib Dems, then your line will go up from left to right, rather than down, which would be more consistent with your use of the word "surge".Sunil_Prasannan said:LibDem leads over the Greens since August:
The chart0 -
http://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/jan/26/green-party-education-policies-total-madness-labour-tristram-huntIndigo said:Its not often I agree with the Hon Dr Hunt, but the Green education policy is madness.
Green education policies include delaying the start of formal schooling until the age of six; ending the use of standardised achievement tests in schools; restricting data that would allow the publication of school league tables; abolishing the schools inspectorate Ofsted; and ending the status of academies and free schools.
“I am gravely concerned about low exam results and high dropout rates from children from disadvantaged backgrounds. But I understand that even wonderful schools can’t fully compensate for severe poverty and stress at home - which is why making the minimum wage a living wage, affordable and warm homes, and ensuring decent benefits are available to all who needs them, are education issues as well as social justice issues.”
So in effect, "never mind if you come from a poor home and would likely struggle at school, its okay, no need to try, we will give you a little house and a few quid in your pocket and you don't need to worry about doing anything with your life again"
You do realise that the Green policy appears to be very similar to the Finnish model (although I believe education starts at 7 in Finland). Finland has some of the best education outcomes on the planet.0 -
This guy won't make the Con lists at the next Euro election - he'll just carry on troughing until then.isam said:
Did Dave keep the receipt?TGOHF said:
" An internal investigation by UKIP’s lawyers carried out last July found “Mr Bashir had put in the resignation 3 days after the raid but back-dated it to a month earlier”."MikeK said:More Bashir Lies exposed. UKIP well rid of him.
http://order-order.com/2015/01/26/bashir-lied-about-times-illegal-immigrants-expose/
LAST JULY ?
Kills stone dead the Kipper spin that they just found out he was a wrong un - they did know last july - they just did nothing for 8 months until he defected.0 -
6% is an all-time high for the Greens with Populus, so the answer to that would be "no".Sunil_Prasannan said:Will Populus' Green rating of 6% herald the beginning of the end of the Green Surge?
Another chart0 -
I think we have been rather protected from how bloody things are in Greece to date, most Greeks I know think its already a nightmare, and they are despairing of anyone getting them out of it. This article in the Guardian a couple of days or so ago give a good flavour of their national mood.currystar said:It will be a few years of nightmares for all those people celebrating last night.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/21/-sp-greek-elections-five-years-like-patient-slowly-bleeding“I will drive you to the wound of Greece. It won’t take long.” Tall, muscular and dark, Antonis is not a man given to hyperbole but he is, by his own admission, very angry. Now, staring into his rear-view mirror – only days before elections that could make or break Athens’ tumultuous ties with Europe – there is no hiding how incensed he is. “What has happened to this country is a catastrophe,” he fumes. “Our politicians, Europe, the IMF, they have stopped us having dreams.”
It is everywhere: in the mamas and papas scavenging through the rubbish bins, the broken pavements and shuttered shops, the abandoned cars and derelict houses, the new poor who mutter to themselves on graffiti-stained streets. “It is the loss of hope,” he says with a thump of his steering wheel. “I see it every day, a wound that will not heal. Please write that I, Antonis, hate this country, I hate everything about it.”0 -
This for real ? If so when was the sex - change ?
Breaking News @NewsOnTheMin 10m10 minutes ago
BREAKING UPDATE: Fire in far right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen's home. She has apparently been shot in the face. (@ArmedResearch)0 -
You do realise that the Green policy appears to be very similar to the Finnish model (although I believe education starts at 7 in Finland). Finland has some of the best education outcomes on the planet.You don't want to be confusing them with evidence, they're busy paraphrasing things to fit their own prejudices.Dair said:
http://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/jan/26/green-party-education-policies-total-madness-labour-tristram-huntIndigo said:Its not often I agree with the Hon Dr Hunt, but the Green education policy is madness.
Green education policies include delaying the start of formal schooling until the age of six; ending the use of standardised achievement tests in schools; restricting data that would allow the publication of school league tables; abolishing the schools inspectorate Ofsted; and ending the status of academies and free schools.
“I am gravely concerned about low exam results and high dropout rates from children from disadvantaged backgrounds. But I understand that even wonderful schools can’t fully compensate for severe poverty and stress at home - which is why making the minimum wage a living wage, affordable and warm homes, and ensuring decent benefits are available to all who needs them, are education issues as well as social justice issues.”
So in effect, "never mind if you come from a poor home and would likely struggle at school, its okay, no need to try, we will give you a little house and a few quid in your pocket and you don't need to worry about doing anything with your life again"0 -
Overstated, as per most of his stuff.rottenborough said:
What happened to the Dan Hodges Mansion Tax theory that Lab were doomed in London?isam said:
Interesting take on the story thereScott_P said:@JoeMurphyLondon: Exclusive London poll: @YouGov finds Lib Dems fall to FIFTH place for the first time in the capital
http://t.co/8OkFQJltkK
"An exclusive poll today suggests Labour could seize up to eight of its London target seats at the general election, putting Ed Miliband a step closer to 10 Downing Street."
How many target seats do Labour have in London?
0 -
I guess they were desperate to have his face in all the publicity photos. Can't for the life of me think why.TGOHF said:
This guy won't make the Con lists at the next Euro election - he'll just carry on troughing until then.isam said:
Did Dave keep the receipt?TGOHF said:
" An internal investigation by UKIP’s lawyers carried out last July found “Mr Bashir had put in the resignation 3 days after the raid but back-dated it to a month earlier”."MikeK said:More Bashir Lies exposed. UKIP well rid of him.
http://order-order.com/2015/01/26/bashir-lied-about-times-illegal-immigrants-expose/
LAST JULY ?
Kills stone dead the Kipper spin that they just found out he was a wrong un - they did know last july - they just did nothing for 8 months until he defected.0 -
Cluck cluck cluck? The concept of negotiating seems to have wholly passed you by.Socrates said:Cluck, cluck, cluck:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30985531
David Cameron has said "good progress" has been made on coming up with a format for TV election debates that he would be willing to take part in. But he questioned why Northern Ireland parties had been left out... Asked whether he would "turn up" for the debates, scheduled to take place in April, Mr Cameron gave no commitment but indicated he was happy with the changes made.
Or perhaps you are just narked because Round 1 of this "negotiating" mullarkey went so badly against the kppers?0 -
If it comes out of the Euro it screws everyone over 35, if it stays in it screws everyone under 35 - pick your poison.currystar said:i just dont get how Greece thinks that it does not have to pay its debts.
It will have to leave the Euro and will then have a horribly weak currency.
Greece is a country with no fossil fuels, very limited manufacturing and industry. Its main industry in tourism. It has to import oil, gas etc. It will have to buy this up front with a very weak currency. How is that going to work.
The greek people clearly want to return to the good old days when hairdressers could retire at 50 on a full state pension because their trade was dangerous.
It will be a few years of nightmares for all those people celebrating last night.0 -
You do realise that the Green policy appears to be very similar to the Finnish model (although I believe education starts at 7 in Finland). Finland has some of the best education outcomes on the planet.Dair said:
http://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/jan/26/green-party-education-policies-total-madness-labour-tristram-huntIndigo said:Its not often I agree with the Hon Dr Hunt, but the Green education policy is madness.
Green education policies include delaying the start of formal schooling until the age of six; ending the use of standardised achievement tests in schools; restricting data that would allow the publication of school league tables; abolishing the schools inspectorate Ofsted; and ending the status of academies and free schools.
“I am gravely concerned about low exam results and high dropout rates from children from disadvantaged backgrounds. But I understand that even wonderful schools can’t fully compensate for severe poverty and stress at home - which is why making the minimum wage a living wage, affordable and warm homes, and ensuring decent benefits are available to all who needs them, are education issues as well as social justice issues.”
So in effect, "never mind if you come from a poor home and would likely struggle at school, its okay, no need to try, we will give you a little house and a few quid in your pocket and you don't need to worry about doing anything with your life again"
They have fully integrated preschool before that, and they spend 25% more on Education than we do. They require all their teachers to be qualified to at least Masters level. They have a homogeneous culture and a population total of less than Birmingham, and effectively no poverty at home, but apart from that completely transferable
See aboveOblitusSumMe said:You don't want to be confusing them with evidence, they're busy paraphrasing things to fit their own prejudices.
0 -
Greetings from Silicon Valley, where it's dark and my eyes are red raw with lag. Below some interesting stats that explain why the US is likely to remain the world's global innovation leader for many a long year to come. Look at the inventor deficits of the Asian and European countries. Then look at the American figure. I often think that every other engineer I see or meet when I come here is from China or India, and it looks like they probably are.
China
53,610 - Number of emigrant inventors 2001-2010
4,251 - Number of immigrant inventors 2001-2010
India
40,097 - Number of emigrant inventors 2001-2010
532 - Number of immigrant inventors 2001-2010
South Korea
9,127 - Number of emigrant inventors 2001-2010
1,472 - Number of immigrant inventors 2001-2010
Canada
21,315 - Number of emigrant inventors 2001-2010
7,257 - Number of immigrant inventors 2001-2010
United Kingdom
27,746 - Number of emigrant inventors 2001-2010
15,758 - Number of immigrant inventors 2001-2010
France
19,123 - Number of emigrant inventors 2001-2010
9,540 - Number of immigrant inventors 2001-2010
Germany
32,158 - Number of emigrant inventors 2001-2010
25,341 - Number of immigrant inventors 2001-2010
Australia
5,631 - Number of emigrant inventors 2001-2010
4,427 - Number of immigrant inventors 2001-2010
New Zealand
1,839 - Number of emigrant inventors 2001-2010
1,249 - Number of immigrant inventors 2001-2010
Japan
6,986 - Number of emigrant inventors 2001-2010
6,715 - Number of immigrant inventors 2001-2010
United States
11,131 - Number of emigrant inventors 2001-2010
194,609 - Number of immigrant inventors 2001-2010
0 -
For ever and ever and ever and ever and ever....or until 26th January, 2015, whichever is the earlier.
RIP Demis Roussos. Abigail's Party would have been the lesser without you.0 -
If he hasn't he is slipping. Greece is an interesting experiment as to what has the most power, the markets or democracy. Labour's policies here are nothing like as daft as Syriza but they are still largely based on the fact that if the majority want to vote for higher public spending without any significant tax increases that is what should happen.SandyRentool said:Has Hodges told us yet why the election result in Greece is a disaster for Ed Miliband?
Ed might get lucky and the wheels may not come off in Greece until after May although the EU response today hints that we might well get a real time demonstration of what happens when people vote in a stupid way.
An early car crash in Greece would do the tories no harm at all.0 -
Fire and attack on Jean Marie Le Pen.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2015/01/26/97001-20150126FILWWW00209-un-incendie-aurait-eclate-au-domicile-de-jean-marie-le-pen.php
Text in French.0 -
Have we spoken about Leon Brittan yet? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2925149/Labour-MP-sensationally-accuses-Leon-Brittan-multiple-child-rape-compares-tributes-former-Home-Secretary-heaped-Jimmy-Savile.html
Are people beginning to understand how serious and far reaching this all is?0 -
Greece should never have joined the euro. But that was a decision taken by all the eurozone countries, including Germany. They seem to want to have eurozone solidarity when it suits them and to leave countries on their own when it doesn't.TGOHF said:
If it comes out of the Euro it screws everyone over 35, if it stays in it screws everyone under 35 - pick your poison.currystar said:i just dont get how Greece thinks that it does not have to pay its debts.
It will have to leave the Euro and will then have a horribly weak currency.
Greece is a country with no fossil fuels, very limited manufacturing and industry. Its main industry in tourism. It has to import oil, gas etc. It will have to buy this up front with a very weak currency. How is that going to work.
The greek people clearly want to return to the good old days when hairdressers could retire at 50 on a full state pension because their trade was dangerous.
It will be a few years of nightmares for all those people celebrating last night.
There is something fatally wrong with a system which imposes real poverty on those least able to bear it and encourages the rich, the mobile and the skilled to flee.0 -
The late Paul Foot of Private Eye did some research into this. Why not look for it?Luckyguy1983 said:Have we spoken about Leon Brittan yet? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2925149/Labour-MP-sensationally-accuses-Leon-Brittan-multiple-child-rape-compares-tributes-former-Home-Secretary-heaped-Jimmy-Savile.html
Are people beginning to understand how serious and far reaching this all is?0 -
For those wot missed it yesterday: Cons v. UKIP in ELBOW:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5596922364690432000 -
Definitely still a HEdr_spyn said:Fire and attack on Jean Marie Le Pen.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2015/01/26/97001-20150126FILWWW00209-un-incendie-aurait-eclate-au-domicile-de-jean-marie-le-pen.php
Text in French.
0 -
''There is something fatally wrong with a system which imposes real poverty on those least able to bear it and encourages the rich, the mobile and the skilled to flee.''
The fault is not with the euro but the rubbish way the Greeks have run their country for centuries. Now, the fact they don't deserve to share a currency with Germany is coming home to roost.
0
