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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Interesting new leaders’ betting market – but where’s the value?
This clearly is a competition between Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage and my inclination would be the latter. Thanet South looks as though it will be a tighter contest than Sheffield Hallam.
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Something to keep an eye on.
Owen Smith blaming David Cameron is pure political comedy gold.
Three of the top stories on Wales online are about the NHS crisis under labour.
I don't care what edge you think you have with your access to private polling, I wan to take you on and will offer you EVEN money that Clegg will poll less than Farage
However much you like... are you game?
Are Labour + Lib Dem doing considerably better worse? in Thanet South than the Tories + UKIP are doing in Sheffield Hallam - thats the only way this one can possibly be value
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/559688551236124672
Wait yes I see that's exactly what you're saying.
Ed on Greece:
"Just like our elections are a matter for the people of this country, so who the Greek people elect is a decision for them.
"It is the responsibility of the British government to work with the elected government of Greece for the good of Britain and Europe and not to play politics.
"And it is up to each country to choose its own path on how to deal with the economic and social challenges they face.
"We have set out our path for Britain: to make sure our country is fairer and more prosperous and balance the books."
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/111723/ed_miliband_responds_to_greece_election_result.html
Ed on France:
"The points of agreement we have were around the fact that the tide is turning against an austerity approach, that there needs to be a different way forward found.
"What President Hollande is seeking to do in France and what he is seeking to do in leading the debate in Europe is find that different way forward.
"We are in agreement in seeking that new way that needs to be found and I think can be found."
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-18966541
Wonder why he's dropped the tide is turning against an austerity approach, that there needs to be a different way forward found. line?
Surely that was what Greece was all about?
1-3 Clegg (Hallam)
4-6 Farage (Thanet South)
And Evens Clegg to poll below Farage can possibly all be decent bets, especially since the Conservatives are 20-1 (Hallam) and Labour are 7-1 Thanet South.
Something isn't adding up there.
So in effect, "never mind if you come from a poor home and would likely struggle at school, its okay, no need to try, we will give you a little house and a few quid in your pocket and you don't need to worry about doing anything with your life again"
And I'd like to know since I'm on in both these markets, specially Hallam with a big fat red on Labour there.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/film/11369224/UKIPFilmTitles-the-funniest-tweets.html
20 hours 20 minutes 20 seconds
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/bbc/11369104/We-must-not-call-Charlie-Hebdo-killers-terrorists-says-BBC-boss.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/11368634/Greece-must-bow-to-austerity-or-go-bust-says-EU.html Not even playing around, we wont talk to you unless you agree to everything... Trying to humiliate a newly elected radical Prime Minister... no chance of that one going wrong then.
Remember, as we remind Lord Ashcroft every week, ELBOW is a snapshot, not a prediction!
So in effect, "never mind if you come from a poor home and would likely struggle at school, its okay, no need to try, we will give you a little house and a few quid in your pocket and you don't need to worry about doing anything with your life again"
Not much there from Hunt that could not have been written by Gove. Though are't the Finns ahead of us in the sainted PISA rankings despite not starting school till seven?
The EU doesn't give a damn about what the people think in such silly things as elections.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/559685444661960704
Almost seems like they want to force them out
Presumably the EU does care that people who incur debts pay them back.
If they don;t then everybody is in trouble.
What price @Quincel?
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/27/world/europe/gchq-britain-prank-caller.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0
They can't even keep their own agency head's phone number secret. If they can be outwitted by a random high on drugs, God knows what information a rogue agent could hack into and abuse for personal gain or amusement.
Who will blink first?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30985531
David Cameron has said "good progress" has been made on coming up with a format for TV election debates that he would be willing to take part in. But he questioned why Northern Ireland parties had been left out... Asked whether he would "turn up" for the debates, scheduled to take place in April, Mr Cameron gave no commitment but indicated he was happy with the changes made.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-30983027
Incidentally, I don't see why you couldn't make this a strict liability offence. So regular inspections by school nurses/GPs. If an under-age girl is found to have suffered FGM, the parents are criminally responsible. (I find it hard to envisage circumstances where a girl could suffer this without the knowledge / consent / co-operation of the parents.) The girl and any other sisters are made wards of court and, if necessary, taken into care.
FGM is a horrendous crime which causes great and life-long pain and harm, beyond even the removal of any sexual function. It is, to my mind, child abuse of a horrific kind. And I have never heard of any medical justification for it.
Haven't heard that.. sure we would have on here
http://labourlist.org/2015/01/tristram-hunt-slams-green-party-policies-as-total-madness/
Mirror running Vote Green and Get ISIS stuff this morning as well.
If the troika blinks then every punter that ever borrowed a buck will want a renegotiation.
The notion of paying your debts seems to be going out of fashion.
Except the Uk has a better hand than the Greeks - will be a good test as to whether fudge can be reached if the Greeks can get their way.
Quincel was looking for a job in that game, and isn't on here anymore...
The Greeks have no hand. As they are about to find out, if the lenders have any sense.
http://order-order.com/2015/01/26/bashir-lied-about-times-illegal-immigrants-expose/
Additionally anyone who thinks the government is just going to give the snooping powers to the intelligence services is naive, even after the Conservatives tightening up of RIPA it still lets organisations like the BBC use spying powers to see if you have paid your TV license (there was a case of this in the papers just last week). If that information is available to those organisations they will use it in court cases (like the license fee) and then it is part of the public record for all to see.
A currency should exist for the benefit of the people. Whereas it seems that the people are being told that they should exist only for the benefit of the currency.
The euro has been fetishised beyond all reason, much like the Gold Standard in pre-war days, and with the same dismal result for ordinary people.
Quite why left-wing parties go along with this is a mystery to me.
If you want people to agree to austerity you need to persuade them not bark at them that this is what the euro requires - as if the euro were God. Euro politicians have been appalling at being honest about the euro and this fundamental dishonesty has tainted everything to do with it. It's hardly surprising if Greek politicians are being equally dishonest in their turn.
http://t.co/8OkFQJltkK
Let's call them murderers then. Or is that another "value-laden" word?
Notice Clegg drifting/Farage shortening in the other market.. TSE will have to go in a gain at the new bigger price
LAST JULY ?
Even St Paul had to explain this to a nascent Christian community... "If anyone is not willing to work, let him not eat." Mind you, this was Thessalonika and you know what those Greeks are like.
I felt the same idealism at fifteen and I sometimes look back and remember the quote from 'Lord of the Flies'. -" And he cried for the loss of innocence."
Downloaded after it was plugged on here the other day, and finished it this morning. Good to see Nick Palmer held on.
I think AC can make corrections to ebooks, so a mindless pedant writes: the Croydon result got a bit confused; and there's an extra word near Charles Clarke.
The best way to avoid the domino effect is to kick Greece out of the euro and let the rest of Europe see the result. It sure won;t be pretty.
Its if the troika gives in that we will see the domino effect, I'd have thought
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/559692429126012928
"An exclusive poll today suggests Labour could seize up to eight of its London target seats at the general election, putting Ed Miliband a step closer to 10 Downing Street."
It will have to leave the Euro and will then have a horribly weak currency.
Greece is a country with no fossil fuels, very limited manufacturing and industry. Its main industry in tourism. It has to import oil, gas etc. It will have to buy this up front with a very weak currency. How is that going to work.
The greek people clearly want to return to the good old days when hairdressers could retire at 50 on a full state pension because their trade was dangerous.
It will be a few years of nightmares for all those people celebrating last night.
Is this piece of ridiculousness a piece of governmental interference, or has my phone company taken upon itself to restrict my internet access?
The EU - as currently constituted - does its level best to make people think that there has to be a choice between being pro-EU or being pro-democracy.
If people who have voted are not listened to, the risk is they will turn to something else - something much less palatable.
Is there no-one in Brussels or Frankfurt who has even a cursory knowledge of Greek or recent European history?
So in effect, "never mind if you come from a poor home and would likely struggle at school, its okay, no need to try, we will give you a little house and a few quid in your pocket and you don't need to worry about doing anything with your life again"
You do realise that the Green policy appears to be very similar to the Finnish model (although I believe education starts at 7 in Finland). Finland has some of the best education outcomes on the planet.
Kills stone dead the Kipper spin that they just found out he was a wrong un - they did know last july - they just did nothing for 8 months until he defected.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/21/-sp-greek-elections-five-years-like-patient-slowly-bleeding
Breaking News @NewsOnTheMin 10m10 minutes ago
BREAKING UPDATE: Fire in far right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen's home. She has apparently been shot in the face. (@ArmedResearch)
How many target seats do Labour have in London?
Or perhaps you are just narked because Round 1 of this "negotiating" mullarkey went so badly against the kppers?
They have fully integrated preschool before that, and they spend 25% more on Education than we do. They require all their teachers to be qualified to at least Masters level. They have a homogeneous culture and a population total of less than Birmingham, and effectively no poverty at home, but apart from that completely transferable
China
53,610 - Number of emigrant inventors 2001-2010
4,251 - Number of immigrant inventors 2001-2010
India
40,097 - Number of emigrant inventors 2001-2010
532 - Number of immigrant inventors 2001-2010
South Korea
9,127 - Number of emigrant inventors 2001-2010
1,472 - Number of immigrant inventors 2001-2010
Canada
21,315 - Number of emigrant inventors 2001-2010
7,257 - Number of immigrant inventors 2001-2010
United Kingdom
27,746 - Number of emigrant inventors 2001-2010
15,758 - Number of immigrant inventors 2001-2010
France
19,123 - Number of emigrant inventors 2001-2010
9,540 - Number of immigrant inventors 2001-2010
Germany
32,158 - Number of emigrant inventors 2001-2010
25,341 - Number of immigrant inventors 2001-2010
Australia
5,631 - Number of emigrant inventors 2001-2010
4,427 - Number of immigrant inventors 2001-2010
New Zealand
1,839 - Number of emigrant inventors 2001-2010
1,249 - Number of immigrant inventors 2001-2010
Japan
6,986 - Number of emigrant inventors 2001-2010
6,715 - Number of immigrant inventors 2001-2010
United States
11,131 - Number of emigrant inventors 2001-2010
194,609 - Number of immigrant inventors 2001-2010
RIP Demis Roussos. Abigail's Party would have been the lesser without you.
Ed might get lucky and the wheels may not come off in Greece until after May although the EU response today hints that we might well get a real time demonstration of what happens when people vote in a stupid way.
An early car crash in Greece would do the tories no harm at all.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2015/01/26/97001-20150126FILWWW00209-un-incendie-aurait-eclate-au-domicile-de-jean-marie-le-pen.php
Text in French.
Are people beginning to understand how serious and far reaching this all is?
There is something fatally wrong with a system which imposes real poverty on those least able to bear it and encourages the rich, the mobile and the skilled to flee.
How about checking before making factual assertions?
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/559692236469043200
The fault is not with the euro but the rubbish way the Greeks have run their country for centuries. Now, the fact they don't deserve to share a currency with Germany is coming home to roost.