SYRIZA claims that Greeks can keep their high incomes, pensions and savings through staying in the Euro, while ending the requirement to run a balanced budget.
I think the bottom line is they are hoping to trade a massive haircut on their debt against not blowing up the EU, and the EUs desire for it not to be seen that countries can leave (and even worse prosper from leaving). Since the IMF doesn't do haircuts they presumably hope the creditor nations will put their hand in their pocket on their behalf to keep the EU stable, betting on them preferring a modest (in international terms) handout now, to a much bigger spend later on settling down any contagion.
Two things:
1. It is not possible, due to the structure of the troika loans, for the ECB/EU to accept different terms to the IMF.
2. There will not be a haircut, because that would not be politically acceptable in Germany.
Therefore, what there is on offer is: maturity extensions, coupon cuts, and possibly infrastructure funds for Greece. What would not be acceptable is for those things to occur without continuing supervision from the troika.
The analyses I have read suggest this will be flat unacceptable to at least a third of the SYRIZA coalition, so if that is why Tspiras brings back he will have to get it through the Greek parliament on opposition votes, which even if it were possible would be a huge embarrassment, and would probably cause SYRIZA to splinter and a new election to be called. So is Tspiras likely to propose it to their parliament, or are we going to sleepwalk into a default because Tspiras has basically promised something he cant deliver.
His choices appear to come down to propose something in the terms you suggest and his government falls, and gets replaced probably by ND, and probably huge social unrest since they are seen as part of the problem by more than half the country, or tell the EU to p1ss off and call a default, and remain in government to sort out the mess, fun choice.
Ah yes, the curse of factions in a glued coalition. I agree @Indigo with your analysis. I now have bets that the Syriza led government wont last past autumn 2015.
However if Syriza does fall, I see a real rise for Golden Dawn as the populace lose faith in the left.
Kippers seem to have planted a story in the Times from Mr Banks their new donor, saying Hannan was looking at defecting to them.... try and turn the focus back on blues going to the purples perhaps - his reply was
Daniel Hannan@DanHannanMEP · 1h 1 hour ago Laura Pitel's story about me in the Times is utter, unadulterated bollocks.
Mark Wallace@wallaceme·19 mins19 minutes ago Arron Banks harms UKIP's defection operation by making public claims about @DanHannanMEP - their success so far founded on total secrecy
Enoch's biggest fan done his bit for ukip by broking the Bashir deal
Former Respect politician who is now the conservatives most prominent Yorkshire Muslim takes aim at Ukip Thurrock activist Amjad Bashir (@AmjadBashirMEP) 26/01/2015 00:49 @Michael_Heaver@GuidoFawkes only vermin, like you, abuse hospitality food & drink then piss and shit in same plate Account hacked??
I detest the anti-democratic EU as much as anyone. And I very much wish that Greece can find a way to leave the Euro and succeed with its own currency. But....I never underestimate the deep well of statist power that is the Brussels machine. The chances for Greece to have the will, and the means and to succeed in the face of the EUSSR elite are not that high. Somehow they'll overwhelm Greek freedom.
But by running away from the problem they walk into another one - devaluation and a depreciating drachma.
A debt free Greece with a cheap currency would be in a much better position than they are now. They'd struggle to borrow, but they're pretty much deficit neutral excluding debt service today.
They're not debt free.
They still owe the money. The loans from the IMF were written under US Law, and allow the IMF to seize the Greek state assets wherever they may find them.
This means that if a Greek airliner stops in Atlanta (or even Tokyo) it can be impounded.
You don't get to default on loans from the IMF.
Has IMF ever done that?
AFAIR, nobody has ever successfully defaulted on an IMF loan, so we don't know. I think - to retain their credibility - they would need to do something to recover losses. (Because otherwise other people would just walk away from their loans, and their ability to be a lender of last resort would be diminished.) Whatever happens, they would not allow Greece to raise new debt abroad until they had been repaid.
That said, the IMF has a lot of 'sweeties' at their disposals; such as coupon cuts and maturity extensions (see Belize, 2012).
It is clearly in the interests of the IMF and Greece to reach an accommodation. But it is possible that we see a disorderly Greek default and Euro exit,
I think perhaps Germany be grateful to the Greeks as by my calcs the Greek economy has trod water over it's time in the Euro, the benefit being to keep the Euro slightly weaker thus allowing Germany's efficient production economy to power ahead.
Former Respect politician who is now the conservatives most prominent Yorkshire Muslim takes aim at Ukip Thurrock activist Amjad Bashir (@AmjadBashirMEP) 26/01/2015 00:49 @Michael_Heaver@GuidoFawkes only vermin, like you, abuse hospitality food & drink then piss and shit in same plate Account hacked??
What a fine chap UKIP selected.
Yes a real bad mistake. but UKIP is up front in acknowledging it's mistakes, unlike the Tories or Labour that always try to cover any gaff or mistake by lies and misinformation, until found out.
Greece seems yet to understand properly that the facts of life are conservative.
The fact that conservative governance got them into this mess.
A bloated public sector, even more bloated public sector pensions and a widespread ethos of corruption, tax evasion and hiding from hard work are not exactly pillars of conservative governance.
Former Respect politician who is now the conservatives most prominent Yorkshire Muslim takes aim at Ukip Thurrock activist Amjad Bashir (@AmjadBashirMEP) 26/01/2015 00:49 @Michael_Heaver@GuidoFawkes only vermin, like you, abuse hospitality food & drink then piss and shit in same plate Account hacked??
What a fine chap UKIP selected.
Yes a real bad mistake. but UKIP is up front in acknowledging it's mistakes, unlike the Tories or Labour that always try to cover any gaff or mistake by lies and misinformation, until found out.
Really? Kerry Smith was selected as candidate for East Basildon & South Thurrock after his rant came to the attention of UKIP high command. And was only deselected when this cover-up was found out.
Former Respect politician who is now the conservatives most prominent Yorkshire Muslim takes aim at Ukip Thurrock activist Amjad Bashir (@AmjadBashirMEP) 26/01/2015 00:49 @Michael_Heaver@GuidoFawkes only vermin, like you, abuse hospitality food & drink then piss and shit in same plate Account hacked??
What a fine chap UKIP selected.
Yes a real bad mistake. but UKIP is up front in acknowledging it's mistakes, unlike the Tories or Labour that always try to cover any gaff or mistake by lies and misinformation, until found out.
To be fair they do have lots more experience of dealing with criminal and outright barking members than the other parties.
SYRIZA has promised something that is not in its power to deliver. It is therefore entirely likely that Tsipiras returns from New York in July waving a piece of paper - a paper promising a dramatic cut in interest payments on official loans, and an extension of maturity of all Greek debt.
Something which is, objectively, a triumph.
But something that is unacceptable to SYRIZA hardliners, who bought the whole "default on all obligations" line. SYRIZA spliters. New general election. And who knows who gets elected then...
Greece seems yet to understand properly that the facts of life are conservative.
The fact that conservative governance got them into this mess.
A bloated public sector, even more bloated public sector pensions and a widespread ethos of corruption, tax evasion and hiding from hard work are not exactly pillars of conservative governance.
An unwillingness to collect taxes due from the elite - very much the culture here too before the banks were exposed as the economic frauds they are.
Today's prize for making a statement of the bleeding obvious goes to Justin Webb who said on Radio 4 this morning: "The general election will hinge on unique battles in individual constituencies."
Murphy pledges to return Scotland's railways to public ownership DUTCH rail operator Abellio's forthcoming £2.5bn franchise to run Scotland's railways would be cancelled if Labour came to power after the 2016 Holyrood elections.
I haven't read the article due to needing to register but isn't what Murphy proposing impossible given that Holyrood doesn't have the power to do so currently?
Greece seems yet to understand properly that the facts of life are conservative.
The fact that conservative governance got them into this mess.
A bloated public sector, even more bloated public sector pensions and a widespread ethos of corruption, tax evasion and hiding from hard work are not exactly pillars of conservative governance.
Parts of Greece were governed by Turkey until 1914, Rhodes by The Italians until 1943, then Germans until 1945. Why hand over taxes to support a foreign power?
One poster last week, implied that post 1945, civil service & military dominated by Right, why hand taxes over to your political enemies. Though from 1918-23, there were deep divisions between Monarchist Right and Republican Nationalists, why pay taxes to the victors?
Going into the Euro was a mistake, but having PASOK in power with its elastic definitions of budgeting clearly didn't help.
Yet you were entirely happy with him as your elected representative until Saturday evening.
Do you know the rules of old maid, or the meaning of the expression "a fortiori"?
This is so funny that I'm really looking forward to Marf's cartoon about it. Bound to be an absolute corker.
As I understand it, there's only one Old Maid in the normal version of the game. If you play the game with UKIP, almost all the cards in their hand are highly undesirable.
If I were advising one of the other parties, I'd want a pair of tongs for holding any possible recruits from UKIP. But that's the Conservatives' problem now.
Am I correct in thinking that the subject of that link was until very recently a highly thought of and well respected senior member of UKIP?
He was a member of ukip
So definitely not well thought of or senior?
What a stupid question, of course he was. CCHQ would hardly have given him two hours at Downing Street if he'd just been rank and file, would they? CCHQ don't make mistakes like that. #letsalllaughatdave
SYRIZA has promised something that is not in its power to deliver. It is therefore entirely likely that Tsipiras returns from New York in July waving a piece of paper - a paper promising a dramatic cut in interest payments on official loans, and an extension of maturity of all Greek debt.
Something which is, objectively, a triumph.
But something that is unacceptable to SYRIZA hardliners, who bought the whole "default on all obligations" line. SYRIZA spliters. New general election. And who knows who gets elected then...
Given that whatever they can plausibly concede to Tsipras the likely outcome seems to be that his government falls apart and they have new elections, what's the point in them conceding anything? I know the EU has strong traditions of fudge and compromise etc etc, but why not just say "no deal" and wait until either: a) Syriza falls apart and they have new elections (which is what was going to happen anyway) b) Tsipras does something unilateral, pull the plug on the banks, short-term chaos pour encourager les autres.
Greece seems yet to understand properly that the facts of life are conservative.
The fact that conservative governance got them into this mess.
A bloated public sector, even more bloated public sector pensions and a widespread ethos of corruption, tax evasion and hiding from hard work are not exactly pillars of conservative governance.
An unwillingness to collect taxes due from the elite - very much the culture here too before the banks were exposed as the economic frauds they are.
I think you will find that top tax rates under 100% of the term of this Govt. have been 5% or 10% higher under this Govt. than for 97% of the term of your beloved Labour Govt. 1997 - 2010. Would you like to explain why?
"Australian PM Tony Abbott has used the country's national day to announce a knighthood for Prince Philip, the Duke of Edinburgh. Opposition politicians described the decision as out-of-step with the times."
09:50: Greek election Reuters is reporting that Greece's leftwing Syriza party may form a coalition government with the right-wing, anti-bailout Independent Greeks party. The leader of the smaller party, Panos Kammenos, is quoted as saying: "I want to announce that from this moment there is a government in the country. The Independent Greeks give a vote of confidence in Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. There is an agreement in principle."
Murphy pledges to return Scotland's railways to public ownership DUTCH rail operator Abellio's forthcoming £2.5bn franchise to run Scotland's railways would be cancelled if Labour came to power after the 2016 Holyrood elections.
I haven't read the article due to needing to register but isn't what Murphy proposing impossible given that Holyrood doesn't have the power to do so currently?
Just delete the Herald cookies & you get your 'free articles' again.
AFAIK the Smith Commission & UK Govt Command Paper would enable the Scottish government to do this.....don't believe everything the SNP says about it......
"Australian PM Tony Abbott has used the country's national day to announce a knighthood for Prince Philip, the Duke of Edinburgh. Opposition politicians described the decision as out-of-step with the times."
Isam and MikeK etc Must you go on and on and on pointing out the deficiencies in UKIPs selection of MEP candidates? UKIP usually manages to lose half the MEPs elected under the UKIP banner during each parliament. A remarkable record. Lost to either the jail or expenses fraud or defections. Often they just resign in disgust at the folk they find themselves in bed with in the euro groupings. But if you do insist on writing on this issue as you have such a great interest, have you any advice for your party on how it can improve its woeful selection methods? Should UKIP ever join a Govt, the skill of being able to understand what good administration looks like is a benefit in dealing with our lamentable civil service....
Yet you were entirely happy with him as your elected representative until Saturday evening.
Do you know the rules of old maid, or the meaning of the expression "a fortiori"?
This is so funny that I'm really looking forward to Marf's cartoon about it. Bound to be an absolute corker.
As I understand it, there's only one Old Maid in the normal version of the game. If you play the game with UKIP, almost all the cards in their hand are highly undesirable.
If I were advising one of the other parties, I'd want a pair of tongs for holding any possible recruits from UKIP. But that's the Conservatives' problem now.
Isam and MikeK etc Must you go on and on and on pointing out the deficiencies in UKIPs selection of MEP candidates?
Must you go on and on and on pointing out the deficiencies in CCHQ's selection of candidates for two hours of the Prime Minister's presumably valuable time?
Tory posters like Keynesians in a recession this morning.
Isam and MikeK etc Must you go on and on and on pointing out the deficiencies in UKIPs selection of MEP candidates?
Must you go on and on and on pointing out the deficiencies in CCHQ's selection of candidates for two hours of the Prime Minister's presumably valuable time?
Your point is that UKIP MEP vetting is as lax as Conservative Membership vetting?
The other part to look at is if Greece does default on debt owed to the ECB/EU it will cause support for AfD to rise substantially as it puts German taxpayers on the hook (though if Greece had gone bankrupt in 2011 a few German banks would have folded requiring state bailouts).
Off topic. If Miliband loses this GE, we should be looking at the various factions developing. First up the hard left socialists of Labour. http://labourlist.org/2015/01/16-labour-mps-release-statement-calling-for-change-in-party-policy-direction/ "calls for an alternative to Labour’s current deficit reduction plans, public ownership of the railways and a return to collective bargaining and employment rights in the workplace."
Beyond a joke. Were they just polling in a few Labour strongholds?
I would like to point out on in defence of Populus, that they were the in house pollsters for Better Together, and it is said their final poll was spot on the Indyref.
Isam and MikeK etc Must you go on and on and on pointing out the deficiencies in UKIPs selection of MEP candidates?
Must you go on and on and on pointing out the deficiencies in CCHQ's selection of candidates for two hours of the Prime Minister's presumably valuable time?
Your point is that UKIP MEP vetting is as lax as Conservative Membership vetting?
Oooh, you get two hours face to face with the Prime Minister as part of the standard membership package these days? Who knew?
Tempted to paint you yellow and stick a backhoe on you.
Murphy pledges to return Scotland's railways to public ownership DUTCH rail operator Abellio's forthcoming £2.5bn franchise to run Scotland's railways would be cancelled if Labour came to power after the 2016 Holyrood elections.
I haven't read the article due to needing to register but isn't what Murphy proposing impossible given that Holyrood doesn't have the power to do so currently?
Just delete the Herald cookies & you get your 'free articles' again.
AFAIK the Smith Commission & UK Govt Command Paper would enable the Scottish government to do this.....don't believe everything the SNP says about it......
There does seem to be a muddle over what Mr Murphy proposes (quite apart from the small fact that a UK Gmt Command Paper is not a done deal - especially with a new government and new (Westminster) Parliament to get through after the election). Here's a non-paywalled report which explains why:
'Last night a spokesman for his successor as transport minister, Derek Mackay, said: “Jim Murphy has hit the buffers with this embarrassing gaffe, which shows Labour doesn’t understand either our railways or the Smith Commission.
“Non-profit organisations can already bid to run Scotland’s railways. Indeed, the Scottish Government invited such bids for the new franchise but none came forward.
“The powers in the Smith Commission actually relate to allowing public sector bids – a principle the Scottish Government supports and Labour, hypocritically, failed to include in their submission to the Smith Commission. This is yet another Murphy mess-up.”'
Isam and MikeK etc Must you go on and on and on pointing out the deficiencies in UKIPs selection of MEP candidates?
Must you go on and on and on pointing out the deficiencies in CCHQ's selection of candidates for two hours of the Prime Minister's presumably valuable time?
Tory posters like Keynesians in a recession this morning.
I don't doubt that his former senior-player colleagues in UKIP are crapping themselves at what Mr. Bashir has told CCHQ. No wonder they have to trash his credibility....
Intel on the state of the party they have left is about the only use for defectors. Very few make any impact after they change sides. Nobody trusts them.
Any sign of an up-tick in Green % from your canvassing Nick?
Yes, in a small way - we're encountering individuals here and there who say they're tossing up between the LibDems, Greens and us. An explanation of the tactical situation and my record in environment and animal welfare issues usually though not always works. Obviously we won't get to talk to everyone like that so it's important to have targeted mailings for people interested in this (almost nobody positively objects to environmental and animal welfare concern so we can afford a fairly broad brush), for which the quite extensive canvass records are very useful.
This seems to fit the proposal that the New Greens involved in surge are likely to be 2010 LD voters, especially younger, urban ones, who switched to saying Labour after GE result and are now flirting with Greens. Its going to be fascinating to see how Labour work a squeeze on this. Peter Haine obviously thinks the answer lies in outlining new, radical policies.
Isam and MikeK etc Must you go on and on and on pointing out the deficiencies in UKIPs selection of MEP candidates?
Must you go on and on and on pointing out the deficiencies in CCHQ's selection of candidates for two hours of the Prime Minister's presumably valuable time?
Your point is that UKIP MEP vetting is as lax as Conservative Membership vetting?
Oooh, you get two hours face to face with the Prime Minister as part of the standard membership package these days? Who knew?
So the Conservatives were foolish to trust the vetting of a senior MEP of UKIP? Fair point. Given how UKIP have lost so many MEPs, perhaps they should have been more cautious?
Minimum wage earners paying more tax to finance millionaires getting £72 a week?
But that's not how Citizen's Income works.
Citizen's Income is a rationalisation of the safety net which is part of the Social Contract (which has been consistently undermined over the last few decades).
Neil was quite disingenious in his interview with Bennett (although she did poorly with easy to address points). He was implying that the zero tax threshold costs people £10,500 per annum when it actually costs (on current tax rates) £3800.
Citizen's Income on provides guaranteed benefits to the very poorest in society, once you work, the £3700 is withdrawn back in tax. Of the £180bn cost of the policy (not the £280bn which Neil lied about) £90bn is recoverable in tax from working people and another £40bn is recoverable from pensioners, another £7.5bn recoverable from basic Benefits and there's a substantial saving in not spending money on jobcenters and a much more streamlined benefits system. Just on those headlines around £150bn of the cost is covered.
You then need to consider the benefits in terms of forcing up wages at the low end to entice people into work and the tax benefits of higher low end earnings. In fact if there is a criticism of the Green's proposals it is not that Citizen's Income is unaffordable - it can be clearly shown it is affordable. The problem is that it is set too low. If you set it at the Basic State Pension rate, you remove another layer of bureaucracy, make a much bigger impact on the wage diminution which is the fundamental and so far unfixable problem at the heart of capitalism.
Citizen's Income actually finds a solution to Marx which many thought impossible.
So Greek GDP has moved nowhere if you take average inflation to be ~ 2.1%. That right ?
You're double counting: you're inflating something that's already been inflated. The point of measuring things in "current dollars" is that you don't have to do that.
Imagine you want to compare the price of a car across the years. The car cost $1000 in 1999 and $2000 now. So the car was $1000 in 1999 dollars and $2000 in 2015 dollars. If you change the 1999 dollars to 2015 dollars, then the prices become $2000 in 1999 (measured in 2015 dollars, i.e. 1999 inflated dollars) and $2000 in 2015 (measured in 2015 dollars). So you can compare[1] the price across the years.
But if you then turn around and say "Ah! We must compensate for inflation", then the prices become $3000 in 1999 (measured in 1999 dollars inflated twice) and $2000 in 2015 (measured in 2015 dollars) and the comparison becomes meaningless.
NOTES ===== [1] Honour compels me to point out that I think this process is inherently flawed, but that's not germane to this explanation. Personally I think we should all give up and measure stuff in gold. but there y'go: I'm old-fashioned that way.
Isam and MikeK etc Must you go on and on and on pointing out the deficiencies in UKIPs selection of MEP candidates?
Must you go on and on and on pointing out the deficiencies in CCHQ's selection of candidates for two hours of the Prime Minister's presumably valuable time?
Your point is that UKIP MEP vetting is as lax as Conservative Membership vetting?
Oooh, you get two hours face to face with the Prime Minister as part of the standard membership package these days? Who knew?
So the Conservatives were foolish to trust the vetting of a senior MEP of UKIP? Fair point. Given how UKIP have lost so many MEPs, perhaps they should have been more cautious?
You still have four minutes to delete that. Carpe diem.
Am I correct in thinking that the subject of that link was until very recently a highly thought of and well respected senior member of UKIP?
He was a member of ukip
So definitely not well thought of or senior?
He wasn't well thought of by me, I cant speak for anyone else
I have been honest about this, but I will say it again as you obviously weren't listening, I think he was over promoted due to tokenism.. he was an embarrassment when on tv/radio, I cringed
So Greek GDP has moved nowhere if you take average inflation to be ~ 2.1%. That right ?
You're double counting: you're inflating something that's already been inflated. The point of measuring things in "current dollars" is that you don't have to do that.
Imagine you want to compare the price of a car across the years. The car cost $1000 in 1999 and $2000 now. So the car was $1000 in 1999 dollars and $2000 in 2015 dollars. If you change the 1999 dollars to 2015 dollars, then the prices become $2000 in 1999 (measured in 2015 dollars, i.e. 1999 inflated dollars) and $2000 in 2015 (measured in 2015 dollars). So you can compare[1] the price across the years.
But if you then turn around and say "Ah! We must compensate for inflation", then the prices become $3000 in 1999 (measured in 1999 dollars inflated twice) and $2000 in 2015 (measured in 2015 dollars) and the comparison becomes meaningless.
NOTES ===== [1] Honour compels me to point out that I think this process is inherently flawed, but that's not germane to this explanation. Personally I think we should all give up and measure stuff in gold. but there y'go: I'm old-fashioned that way.
Is that inflation adjusted ?
No
Was basing sums off that. But it seems it is, so whoever told me it wasn't inflation adjusted, was wrong.
Isam and MikeK etc Must you go on and on and on pointing out the deficiencies in UKIPs selection of MEP candidates?
Must you go on and on and on pointing out the deficiencies in CCHQ's selection of candidates for two hours of the Prime Minister's presumably valuable time?
Your point is that UKIP MEP vetting is as lax as Conservative Membership vetting?
Isam and MikeK etc Must you go on and on and on pointing out the deficiencies in UKIPs selection of MEP candidates? UKIP usually manages to lose half the MEPs elected under the UKIP banner during each parliament. A remarkable record. Lost to either the jail or expenses fraud or defections. Often they just resign in disgust at the folk they find themselves in bed with in the euro groupings. But if you do insist on writing on this issue as you have such a great interest, have you any advice for your party on how it can improve its woeful selection methods? Should UKIP ever join a Govt, the skill of being able to understand what good administration looks like is a benefit in dealing with our lamentable civil service....
You're trying too hard
Don't worry, Amjad will be pushed down the Conservative memory hole soon, if he hasn't already
What price he is ever pictured with Cameron again on Conservative media/literature?
Thanks to all those who helped last night, mostly in the night shift. I think I have the Coral and Ladbrokes liblabconnom odds for the day/day before the 2010 UK General Election. It's not perfect, but it's a step forward, so thank you for your time.
Yet you were entirely happy with him as your elected representative until Saturday evening.
I didn't fall into that trap. As I said at the time I don't like turncoats and especially ones that then put the boot in.
However, the damage to UKIP is done. The rest of this is now tittle tattle, however silly the Conservatives have been (and they have).
p.s. George Galloway is a nasty, nasty, piece of work. Short man syndrome. Reminiscent of Putin.
Positively Nick-Nackian. 5' 4". Although I've seen it stated as 5'6" somewhere. He doesn't seem to like it being reported on, but according to some people I know in the media, he's a midget. It's more the syndrome that goes with it. Really nasty piece of work.
Thanks to all those who helped last night, mostly in the night shift. I think I have the Coral and Ladbrokes liblabconnom odds for the day/day before the 2010 UK General Election. It's not perfect, but it's a step forward, so thank you for your time.
It shouldn't have been so difficult to find the information.
Minimum wage earners paying more tax to finance millionaires getting £72 a week?
But that's not how Citizen's Income works.
Citizen's Income is a rationalisation of the safety net which is part of the Social Contract (which has been consistently undermined over the last few decades).
Neil was quite disingenious in his interview with Bennett (although she did poorly with easy to address points). He was implying that the zero tax threshold costs people £10,500 per annum when it actually costs (on current tax rates) £3800.
Citizen's Income on provides guaranteed benefits to the very poorest in society, once you work, the £3700 is withdrawn back in tax. Of the £180bn cost of the policy (not the £280bn which Neil lied about) £90bn is recoverable in tax from working people and another £40bn is recoverable from pensioners, another £7.5bn recoverable from basic Benefits and there's a substantial saving in not spending money on jobcenters and a much more streamlined benefits system. Just on those headlines around £150bn of the cost is covered.
You then need to consider the benefits in terms of forcing up wages at the low end to entice people into work and the tax benefits of higher low end earnings. In fact if there is a criticism of the Green's proposals it is not that Citizen's Income is unaffordable - it can be clearly shown it is affordable. The problem is that it is set too low. If you set it at the Basic State Pension rate, you remove another layer of bureaucracy, make a much bigger impact on the wage diminution which is the fundamental and so far unfixable problem at the heart of capitalism.
Citizen's Income actually finds a solution to Marx which many thought impossible.
Yes very unfair of Andrew Neil to use his deathstare to prevent the leader of (your?) Green Party from correcting his £100bn error.
£100bn here...£100bn there...pretty soon you are talking about...
Isam and MikeK etc Must you go on and on and on pointing out the deficiencies in UKIPs selection of MEP candidates?
Must you go on and on and on pointing out the deficiencies in CCHQ's selection of candidates for two hours of the Prime Minister's presumably valuable time?
Your point is that UKIP MEP vetting is as lax as Conservative Membership vetting?
two hours face to face with the Prime Minister
Got a link for that?
Kippers probably allowing for the silver iodide photographic plates to be prepared - ah the good old days.
Minimum wage earners paying more tax to finance millionaires getting £72 a week?
But that's not how Citizen's Income works.
Citizen's Income is a rationalisation of the safety net which is part of the Social Contract (which has been consistently undermined over the last few decades).
Neil was quite disingenious in his interview with Bennett (although she did poorly with easy to address points). He was implying that the zero tax threshold costs people £10,500 per annum when it actually costs (on current tax rates) £3800.
Citizen's Income on provides guaranteed benefits to the very poorest in society, once you work, the £3700 is withdrawn back in tax. Of the £180bn cost of the policy (not the £280bn which Neil lied about) £90bn is recoverable in tax from working people and another £40bn is recoverable from pensioners, another £7.5bn recoverable from basic Benefits and there's a substantial saving in not spending money on jobcenters and a much more streamlined benefits system. Just on those headlines around £150bn of the cost is covered.
You then need to consider the benefits in terms of forcing up wages at the low end to entice people into work and the tax benefits of higher low end earnings. In fact if there is a criticism of the Green's proposals it is not that Citizen's Income is unaffordable - it can be clearly shown it is affordable. The problem is that it is set too low. If you set it at the Basic State Pension rate, you remove another layer of bureaucracy, make a much bigger impact on the wage diminution which is the fundamental and so far unfixable problem at the heart of capitalism.
Citizen's Income actually finds a solution to Marx which many thought impossible.
Who said it cost them the full whack? Obviously they wouldn't pay tax below the threshold
The reason the interview was considered a car crash was that people like me who watched it with interest came out not knowing what the hell she was on about
In a perfect world I don't have much problem with the Greens and their policies, they just need to replace human nature and human instinct and they might just work
On the debates, The Times is reporting that whilst the attendees might have been settled, the timings have not. Tories not happy about debates happening after postal votes have happened. Which rather suggests they are expecting a bounce when voters actually see Ed Miliband....
So Greek GDP has moved nowhere if you take average inflation to be ~ 2.1%. That right ?
You're double counting: you're inflating something that's already been inflated. The point of measuring things in "current dollars" is that you don't have to do that.
Imagine you want to compare the price of a car across the years. The car cost $1000 in 1999 and $2000 now. So the car was $1000 in 1999 dollars and $2000 in 2015 dollars. If you change the 1999 dollars to 2015 dollars, then the prices become $2000 in 1999 (measured in 2015 dollars, i.e. 1999 inflated dollars) and $2000 in 2015 (measured in 2015 dollars). So you can compare[1] the price across the years.
But if you then turn around and say "Ah! We must compensate for inflation", then the prices become $3000 in 1999 (measured in 1999 dollars inflated twice) and $2000 in 2015 (measured in 2015 dollars) and the comparison becomes meaningless.
NOTES ===== [1] Honour compels me to point out that I think this process is inherently flawed, but that's not germane to this explanation. Personally I think we should all give up and measure stuff in gold. but there y'go: I'm old-fashioned that way.
Is that inflation adjusted ?
No
Was basing sums off that. But it seems it is, so whoever told me it wasn't inflation adjusted, was wrong.
I think that's correct: "current dollars" are "dollars then" upinflated to "dollars now". If I am wrong (e.g they may just be adjusted for exchange rate changes) then I apologise. But prima facie I'd take the term "current dollars" to be inherently inflation-adjusted.
Now the question becomes: which inflation rate? Did they translate drachma to dollars at 1999 exchange rates, then inflate up using USA inflation, or did they inflate up using Greek inflation then convert Euros to dollars at 2015 exchange rates? I think you get a different answer depending on method. But that's a discussion for another day...
Comments
However if Syriza does fall, I see a real rise for Golden Dawn as the populace lose faith in the left.
#twohoursatdowningstreet
#letsalllaughatdave
That said, the IMF has a lot of 'sweeties' at their disposals; such as coupon cuts and maturity extensions (see Belize, 2012).
It is clearly in the interests of the IMF and Greece to reach an accommodation. But it is possible that we see a disorderly Greek default and Euro exit,
I think perhaps Germany be grateful to the Greeks as by my calcs the Greek economy has trod water over it's time in the Euro, the benefit being to keep the Euro slightly weaker thus allowing Germany's efficient production economy to power ahead.
Give a man a hundred pounds, and he won't say much. Take away fifty the next day and...
SYRIZA has promised something that is not in its power to deliver. It is therefore entirely likely that Tsipiras returns from New York in July waving a piece of paper - a paper promising a dramatic cut in interest payments on official loans, and an extension of maturity of all Greek debt.
Something which is, objectively, a triumph.
But something that is unacceptable to SYRIZA hardliners, who bought the whole "default on all obligations" line. SYRIZA spliters. New general election. And who knows who gets elected then...
Not a great advert for deterrence.
My forecasting skills are looking pretty poor today :-)
This is so funny that I'm really looking forward to Marf's cartoon about it. Bound to be an absolute corker.
One poster last week, implied that post 1945, civil service & military dominated by Right, why hand taxes over to your political enemies. Though from 1918-23, there were deep divisions between Monarchist Right and Republican Nationalists, why pay taxes to the victors?
Going into the Euro was a mistake, but having PASOK in power with its elastic definitions of budgeting clearly didn't help.
If I were advising one of the other parties, I'd want a pair of tongs for holding any possible recruits from UKIP. But that's the Conservatives' problem now.
#letsalllaughatdave
a) Syriza falls apart and they have new elections (which is what was going to happen anyway)
b) Tsipras does something unilateral, pull the plug on the banks, short-term chaos pour encourager les autres.
"Australian PM Tony Abbott has used the country's national day to announce a knighthood for Prince Philip, the Duke of Edinburgh.
Opposition politicians described the decision as out-of-step with the times."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-30977964
09:50: Greek election Reuters is reporting that Greece's leftwing Syriza party may form a coalition government with the right-wing, anti-bailout Independent Greeks party. The leader of the smaller party, Panos Kammenos, is quoted as saying: "I want to announce that from this moment there is a government in the country. The Independent Greeks give a vote of confidence in Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. There is an agreement in principle."
So upfront were they, only when they heard he was leaving did they suspend him.
That did make me laugh a lot.
AFAIK the Smith Commission & UK Govt Command Paper would enable the Scottish government to do this.....don't believe everything the SNP says about it......
Must you go on and on and on pointing out the deficiencies in UKIPs selection of MEP candidates? UKIP usually manages to lose half the MEPs elected under the UKIP banner during each parliament. A remarkable record. Lost to either the jail or expenses fraud or defections. Often they just resign in disgust at the folk they find themselves in bed with in the euro groupings. But if you do insist on writing on this issue as you have such a great interest, have you any advice for your party on how it can improve its woeful selection methods? Should UKIP ever join a Govt, the skill of being able to understand what good administration looks like is a benefit in dealing with our lamentable civil service....
Murphy's own union spent thousands in failed bid to stop him becoming Scottish Labour leader
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/murphys-own-union-spent-thousands-in-failed-bid-to-stop-him-becoming-scot.116871813
So there you have it. Anti-austerity coalition formed between hard left and right: Greece sticks up two fingers to the EU.
Huge implications.
Tory posters like Keynesians in a recession this morning.
Lab: 37
SNP: 35
:|Innocentface|:
However, the damage to UKIP is done. The rest of this is now tittle tattle, however silly the Conservatives have been (and they have).
p.s. George Galloway is a nasty, nasty, piece of work. Short man syndrome. Reminiscent of Putin.
First up the hard left socialists of Labour.
http://labourlist.org/2015/01/16-labour-mps-release-statement-calling-for-change-in-party-policy-direction/
"calls for an alternative to Labour’s current deficit reduction plans, public ownership of the railways and a return to collective bargaining and employment rights in the workplace."
Tempted to paint you yellow and stick a backhoe on you.
'Last night a spokesman for his successor as transport minister, Derek Mackay, said: “Jim Murphy has hit the buffers with this embarrassing gaffe, which shows Labour doesn’t understand either our railways or the Smith Commission.
“Non-profit organisations can already bid to run Scotland’s railways. Indeed, the Scottish Government invited such bids for the new franchise but none came forward.
“The powers in the Smith Commission actually relate to allowing public sector bids – a principle the Scottish Government supports and Labour, hypocritically, failed to include in their submission to the Smith Commission. This is yet another Murphy mess-up.”'
http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/jim-murphy-we-ll-nationalise-scots-rail-services-1-3670292
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7dTkbCIAAAslN_.jpg:large
Intel on the state of the party they have left is about the only use for defectors. Very few make any impact after they change sides. Nobody trusts them.
10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1/10 breakdowns.
Citizen's Income is a rationalisation of the safety net which is part of the Social Contract (which has been consistently undermined over the last few decades).
Neil was quite disingenious in his interview with Bennett (although she did poorly with easy to address points). He was implying that the zero tax threshold costs people £10,500 per annum when it actually costs (on current tax rates) £3800.
Citizen's Income on provides guaranteed benefits to the very poorest in society, once you work, the £3700 is withdrawn back in tax. Of the £180bn cost of the policy (not the £280bn which Neil lied about) £90bn is recoverable in tax from working people and another £40bn is recoverable from pensioners, another £7.5bn recoverable from basic Benefits and there's a substantial saving in not spending money on jobcenters and a much more streamlined benefits system. Just on those headlines around £150bn of the cost is covered.
You then need to consider the benefits in terms of forcing up wages at the low end to entice people into work and the tax benefits of higher low end earnings. In fact if there is a criticism of the Green's proposals it is not that Citizen's Income is unaffordable - it can be clearly shown it is affordable. The problem is that it is set too low. If you set it at the Basic State Pension rate, you remove another layer of bureaucracy, make a much bigger impact on the wage diminution which is the fundamental and so far unfixable problem at the heart of capitalism.
Citizen's Income actually finds a solution to Marx which many thought impossible.
Imagine you want to compare the price of a car across the years. The car cost $1000 in 1999 and $2000 now. So the car was $1000 in 1999 dollars and $2000 in 2015 dollars. If you change the 1999 dollars to 2015 dollars, then the prices become $2000 in 1999 (measured in 2015 dollars, i.e. 1999 inflated dollars) and $2000 in 2015 (measured in 2015 dollars). So you can compare[1] the price across the years.
But if you then turn around and say "Ah! We must compensate for inflation", then the prices become $3000 in 1999 (measured in 1999 dollars inflated twice) and $2000 in 2015 (measured in 2015 dollars) and the comparison becomes meaningless.
Have a play with this (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD ), see what you think.
NOTES
=====
[1] Honour compels me to point out that I think this process is inherently flawed, but that's not germane to this explanation. Personally I think we should all give up and measure stuff in gold. but there y'go: I'm old-fashioned that way.
I have been honest about this, but I will say it again as you obviously weren't listening, I think he was over promoted due to tokenism.. he was an embarrassment when on tv/radio, I cringed
Note, I like the use the blue text colour at the bottom, almost as if the Tories are urging tactical voting for the Lib Dems.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8C0Mi5CYAAX84U.jpg:large
No
Was basing sums off that. But it seems it is, so whoever told me it wasn't inflation adjusted, was wrong.
Don't worry, Amjad will be pushed down the Conservative memory hole soon, if he hasn't already
What price he is ever pictured with Cameron again on Conservative media/literature?
http://www.neilfindlaymsp.com/msp-joins-cross-party-colleagues-in-calling-for-scrapping-of-trident-2/
For what it is worth Murphy seems to be pro-Trident.
(3 inches shorter than Putin.)
£100bn here...£100bn there...pretty soon you are talking about...
I welcome the public servant cut back but do you?
The reason the interview was considered a car crash was that people like me who watched it with interest came out not knowing what the hell she was on about
In a perfect world I don't have much problem with the Greens and their policies, they just need to replace human nature and human instinct and they might just work
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/11368214/Nicola-Sturgeon-Scrapping-Trident-my-red-line-for-propping-up-Labour.html
I think that's correct: "current dollars" are "dollars then" upinflated to "dollars now". If I am wrong (e.g they may just be adjusted for exchange rate changes) then I apologise. But prima facie I'd take the term "current dollars" to be inherently inflation-adjusted.
Now the question becomes: which inflation rate? Did they translate drachma to dollars at 1999 exchange rates, then inflate up using USA inflation, or did they inflate up using Greek inflation then convert Euros to dollars at 2015 exchange rates? I think you get a different answer depending on method. But that's a discussion for another day...