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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With Scotland looking so difficult Labour’s big hope is the English battleground
If the two main parties are level-pegging in England then that represents a swing of 5.7% on the last general election so, all the above should be potential LAB gains on current England only polling data.
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For the Conservatives to stay in office, they really need to keep direct Labour gains from them down to 20, or less.
So Ed has to fawn and creep to the SNP for the keys to Downing Street. That Tory "nightmare" poster is going to be a formidable weapon in the election...
On that basis I think that 20 is a little low but a lot turns on the extent of the damage in Scotland. Looking at the chart 30 gains from the tories requires a swing of 2.38% which, if my arithmetic is right at this time in the morning, would happen with a tory lead of 4.72%. This is a much higher lead than the Tories seem to be on course for at the moment.
The Scottish factor also has the effect of pushing that required lead up by about another 1% in England and Wales since the differential in Scotland in a 20 loss scenario is going to be massively smaller than it was in 2010.
A tory lead of 6% in England to remain the largest party. Not impossible but a very big ask. Labour biggest party still looks the most likely option.
Edit. I think I have forgotten to double the swing. If so then the tory lead would only need to be 2.34+ say 1% for Scotland. That is more doable.
Crossover with Shadsy?
Anyway, that aside, this will be one to return to as we get closer to the big day. This clearly looks at things from a Labour perspective. From a Conservative one many of our potential gains in E&W will be from the yellows.
Whilst Greece tries to renegotiate/reduce its liabilities over the next month, the markets are likely to be quite volatile. Not only will the result of these negotiations have implications for similar economies e.g Spain, but could have farther-reaching problems for some of the creditor banks from Ireland and Portugal etc.
A break-up of the EZ could overshadow GE20i5.
Wonder why. ;-)
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It is in neither side (the troika or the Greek government) to come to an agreement before the very last minute - simply because both parties need to convince their own supporters that they were fighting to the last minute for the best possible deal for [European taxpayers/the Greek people] (delete as appropriate).
Any break-up of the Eurozone, following a disorderly Greek default and Grexit would only therefore happen at end July at the earliest. And I think it is likely that the talks will remain almost completely secret up until a deal is (or is not) reached.
Some sources incorrectly state that he got 19,567 votes (which would mean a majority of 2,879) but this is incorrect.
I keep telling various people and various websites about the correction but it seems that some people are not very good at paying attention.
Are you sure you're not letting your personal views colour what is best for the Greek people?
And Good Morning to all.
It won't do much to help our exports to the EU but then Osborne's emphasis on exports has always been the wrong plan at the wrong time.
Also Ed M next PM should be shorter than Lab most seats.
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Most seats
Blue hearts of gold 1.93/1.94
Labour debts of old 2.10/2.12
I love it when a plan comes together.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-2926102/Cameron-warning-Syriza-win.html
I'm still waiting for the Two Eds to endorse Peter Hain's take:
Labour's former Europe minister Peter Hain compared the measures imposed on the Greeks to the restrictions placed upon Germany after the First World War.
On Twitter he said: "Fantastic Syriza win: austerity does not work for Greece, for Tory/Lib Dem UK, nor for EU; we all need investment in growth not savage cuts."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-2926102/Cameron-warning-Syriza-win.html#ixzz3PunGZmSq
Still no LIbDem candidate, though one is expected in a month's time. We're not expecting them to do more than put out an election address. There is however a new candidate causing some hilarity: https://j4mb.wordpress.com/ . I'd like to say that he'd split the UKIP vote, but to be honest I haven't yet a single supporter. Early days, perhaps.
Looks like an increasingly important issue will be how much of Lab's swing will be side tracked into Green anti-austerity protest votes? Can the party get the message out that this will only help the Tories and squeeze the protest? At the moment it looks unlikely but we have 101 days to go.
Completely reasonable demands and not at all mad.
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A group of 16 Labour MPs have issued a public statement this morning, expressing concern about elements of Labour’s policy agenda, and urging a change of course in three key areas. The letter – signed by MPs on the left of the Parliamentary Labour Party – calls for an alternative to Labour’s current deficit reduction plans, public ownership of the railways and a return to collective bargaining and employment rights in the workplace.
http://labourlist.org/2015/01/16-labour-mps-release-statement-calling-for-change-in-party-policy-direction/
...to take Cardiff out of England!!
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The USA: land of the free!
Amjad Bashir (@AmjadBashirMEP)
26/01/2015 00:49
@Michael_Heaver @GuidoFawkes only vermin, like you, abuse hospitality food & drink then piss and shit in same plate
Account hacked??
Life inside a US prison (if you don't belong to a powerful gang) sounds terrifying.
1. Fast and painful adjustment, as they leave the Euro and default on their debts. This will decimate the savings and pensions of the old, but will probably bring unemployment down quicker. (That being said, there will be no 'end to austerity', as outside the Euro, there would be no ability for the government to borrow - what with them still being in hock to the IMF - and therefore the requirement to balance the budget would remain.)
2. Slow and painful adjustment, as wages fall through being cut or jobs being lost.
At the end of the day, Greeks (like everybody else) needs to compete on the world stage. The only question is whether that is achieved through slow grinding down of incomes, or through the one-off hit of devaluation.
SYRIZA claims that Greeks can keep their high incomes, pensions and savings through staying in the Euro, while ending the requirement to run a balanced budget.
They want to have their cake and eat it, and a bit of that German cake too if nobody minds.
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/westminster/469893/alex-salmond-replace-ed-miliband-bacon-sandwich-tv-debates/
Can you shout that a bit louder so that EdM and EdB as well as their left-wingers get to hear it and perhaps understand it.
Might as well start promising to honour some sort of shadow Drachma currency if they really want to explode the idiotic and failing austerity agenda they've been subject to.
They can't climb out of the Grand Canyon with two broken legs and an EU concrete block around their neck.
The losses the banks had made (a combination of losses in the local property market. and holdings of - among other things - Greek debt) were such that they were no longer solvent.
The choices for the Cypriot banks were: go bust (which would have meant people's savings were 'stolen', or find some way of sharing the pain.)
They still owe the money. The loans from the IMF were written under US Law, and allow the IMF to seize the Greek state assets wherever they may find them.
This means that if a Greek airliner stops in Atlanta (or even Tokyo) it can be impounded.
You don't get to default on loans from the IMF.
I heard Caroline Lucas say, on Radio 4, that some of their mad policies were only for the long distance future - 30 years time, or so, when the world would be a much better place than now. Complete lunacy.
Very scary. Would have been funny if it wasn't so tragic - of course it's just such rhetoric that produced yesterday's Greece vote.
1. It is not possible, due to the structure of the troika loans, for the ECB/EU to accept different terms to the IMF.
2. There will not be a haircut, because that would not be politically acceptable in Germany.
Therefore, what there is on offer is: maturity extensions, coupon cuts, and possibly infrastructure funds for Greece. What would not be acceptable is for those things to occur without continuing supervision from the troika.
To be fair that's the only way unlimited immigration might work, but she'd need to get rid of religion too...
Morning! So this is the guy the Tories claim to have checked out: http://order-order.com/2015/01/25/amjad-bashir-accused-of-lying-over-respect-party-links-told-tories-he-has-never-had-anything-to-do-with-them-respect-application-form-and-5-witnesses-prove-he-is-lying-also-claimed-he-was/ …
Murphy pledges to return Scotland's railways to public ownership
DUTCH rail operator Abellio's forthcoming £2.5bn franchise to run Scotland's railways would be cancelled if Labour came to power after the 2016 Holyrood elections.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/wider-political-news/murphy-pledges-to-return-scotlands-railways-to-public-ownership.116919734
Oh and a tax on budgerigars' second cages to raise £112bn.
His choices appear to come down to propose something in the terms you suggest and his government falls, and gets replaced probably by ND, and probably huge social unrest since they are seen as part of the problem by more than half the country, or tell the EU to p1ss off and call a default, and remain in government to sort out the mess, fun choice.
So apparently there were a bunch of provisions the Tories wanted (successfully branded "The Snooper's Charter" by opponents) that got killed. Then apparently a committee in the Lords attached something similar to a different bill going through now, which the House of Commons has presumably already voted on. This article:
http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2015/01/26/comment-they-re-smuggling-the-snoopers-charter-into-law-but
...says that Is that right? Surely the Lords can't just amend things and automatically have them become law? Is the point here that the thing then goes back to the Commons for a final vote with the amendments, but that the Commons vote is a foregone conclusion? What's actually going on?
Still, it is slightly odd that Sturgeon is neither leader of the SNP in Westminster, nor has any chance of becoming so after the GE (like Farage in UKIP, for example).
It also has the effect of deflating the Green's 'we're the only girls here' pitch.......
He really is the best interviewer on TV: not sarcastic, not abusive, just relentless in getting to the facts of where a case falls apart.
And not biased to one side either.
Daniel Hannan@DanHannanMEP · 1h 1 hour ago
Laura Pitel's story about me in the Times is utter, unadulterated bollocks.
Mark Wallace@wallaceme·19 mins19 minutes ago
Arron Banks harms UKIP's defection operation by making public claims about @DanHannanMEP - their success so far founded on total secrecy
http://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/jan/26/green-party-education-policies-total-madness-labour-tristram-hunt
So Greek GDP has moved nowhere if you take average inflation to be ~ 2.1%. That right ?