Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
On what? You butted in to an argument you hadn't followed from its origin.
Kjh was saying the government should have deprived him of his WFA, if he didn't use so many tax minimisation schemes and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold for losing his WFA
I'm back and I assumed with a new thread this would have died, but no and @hyufd accused me of whitting on about it.
For the final time @hyufd what are all these so many tax minimising things I did again? Can you provide a list. I have given you all the details so prey tell.
And what the hell does 'and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold ' mean? It is gobbledygook nonsense. What the hell does 'cash in hand' in this context mean?
There is no income tax on withdrawal of capital. I have already paid income tax before creating it. Some of it may attract CGT which I pay. There is no cash in hand stuff, whatever that means in this context. You are getting confused with people not declaring income which I have never done.
You are barking. You haven't a clue what you are talking about.
I didn't restart it, I was responding to those who did.
You were the one who was whinging your cash withdrawals from your capital and your ISAs didn't mean you lost all your WFA not me.
If your income was otherwise over the taxable income threshold where WFA was lost you otherwise would have
Answer the questions above then:
a) What are all these 'so many tax minimising schemes' I did again? Can you provide a list. I have given you all the details of what I have so it should be easy.
b) What does 'take cash in hand from his capital' even mean? There is no such concept with Capital. There is no income tax on spending your savings. Unless you are now implying I avoid CGT which I don't.
c) What do you think I could have done to put me over the £35k limit? I would love to know. If I cashed in my ISAs I still wouldn't be over it. Go on tell me how I have avoided going over the limit because if there is some way I can magic such an income I definitely want to know.
@hyufd you have lost it big time. This is idiotic stuff.
The mind boggling thing about this, is I am the one who wants to pay more tax, who doesn't want the WFA and I am the one being accused of being a tax avoider. You need to give your head a wobble.
Yes so the cash you get from your capital which is not taxed means you do not have the taxable income to meet the WFA cut off threshold for starters.
You weren't forced to build up that capital or take cash from it and it would cost too much for HMRC to trace all the cash you withdraw from it to take you over the £35k threshold so you receive no WFA. So stop whinging about it
You are stark raving mad? 70% of my capital in my house and my DC pension. So are you saying nobody should buy a house or take out a pension. The rest is what I have saved for my retirement. Are you saying people shouldn't save for their retirement?
The reason I don't have a taxable income at £35k is because I don't have a DB pension. Nobody gave me one. What was I supposed to do? Lots of people don't have one or only small ones. Are you saying they shouldn't save for retirement?
You do come up with the most idiotic stuff sometimes.
Come on tell me what I should have done then?
Stop whinging about still getting your WFA then, those with DB pensions as you say don't now get it even if they have the benefit of a DB pension income
I'm whinging because lots of people are getting it who shouldn't. That money should be used for those less well off, not for people who are wealthy. So that is why I am whinging.
It is an utter waste of money. It needs to be means tested and set at a lower threshold so people like me don't get it. And even if I return it most won't.
It is a reasonable whinge.
It is means tested...
You're struggling with basic comprehension now, let alone the correct use of tax terminology. What do you think the words "and set at a lower threshold" mean in the post you think you are correcting ?
Everybody with taxable income over £35k already loses WFA if you really want to butt in again to a discussion hours old and not even give the full quote
There is no Capital test. There was effectively one before because you couldn't get it if you were not on benefits and benefits have an asset test. So people like me now who are wealthy get it. There are an awful lot of pensioners who will not have DB pensions so who fail the earnings test but nevertheless are multi millionaires who will be getting it. I am one. It is wrong.
So as I said, let the state take your house and your ISA and then you won't need to feel guilty will you!
So what about all those others getting it who shouldn't. Wouldn't it be better to give to poor pensioners rather than rich ones. Where is your moral compass?
I don't feel guilty. I just deplore injustice. How you can justify it is beyond me.
As I said, if you had kept your taxable income over £35k you wouldn't be getting WFA.
Because you partly live cash in hand off your capital you have ensured by the backdoor you don't lose it, you can of course give your capital to the state to ensure you get it on more morally acceptable grounds if you wish as I said.
The cost for the state of investigating the capital of pensioners still getting WFA would be more than any savings made from cutting it however
God this is like a broken record. There is nothing I could/can do about my taxable income. I can't magic up an income I don't have. How was I supposed to increase it? I don't have a DB pension. My only income is the state pension and interest and dividends. I can't create an income out of thin air. What is wrong with you that you can't understand this?
So I needed to build up capital to live off in retirement. Fortunately I accumulated quite a bit.
What the hell was I supposed to do?
And again this phrase 'Cash in hand'. What are you talking about? There is no cash in hand with capital.This refers to people taking income in cash and not declaring it for income tax. It is insulting you suggest this. Capital is taxed income. It is not subject to income tax. If I do take capital that is subject to CGT I declare it and pay it.
So stop whinging about receiving your WFA then.
Either give your capital to the state or sell it and go off and live in a tent with 1 heater and then you can claim your WFA without self flagellating yourself about still receiving it because you have a bit of capital
Where are your morals? As I said earlier it isn't just me. Why should wealthy people get this benefit. It is for the less well off not for the rich. Do you not care? I'm glad I am not a Christian if this is what it means being a Christian. Shame on you for this selfish attitude of not caring. This is embarrassing.
They mostly don't, anyone with taxable income over £35k loses it.
It is only a few horders of vast capital like you who at the same time keep yourself below the £35k taxable income threshold who keep your WFA.
As I said, you could of course give up your capital and live in a tent and light a campfire for heat and use your WFA to buy wood and kindling and matches and finally shut up about it.
For HMRC there is no point chasing the capital horders like you as it would cost more to identify all your capital than any WFA savings made
I give up. You are an idiot. Any pensioner who does not have a significant DB pension and was a high earner will have done exactly the same as me so they can retire comfortably. That is a huge number of pensioners. Without my capital I have nothing to live off. Do you not understand this? How are you so stupid?
What am I supposed to live off if I didn't accumulate the capital.
How, I mean how are you so stupid that you don't understand how this works?
Why can you not understand that a benefit should have both capital and income thresholds that prevent well off people getting it.
Why do you approve of millionaires getting a benefit to help with their heating ? What is wrong with you?
So stop whinging about keeping your WFA or as I said sell your capital and go off and live in a tent.
It is easy to remove WFA from those whose income is above a certain level when their tax return is submitted.
It is not easy to track and trace all the capital accumulated by the likes of you as it has large admin costs more than any savings made by removing the allowance
As usual showing your ignorance.
Practically nobody submits a tax return at £35k income. Even up to £100k it is pretty rare if you are paid through PAYE. I assume it will be reclaimed via PAYE.
Nearly every benefit has a capital test. Infact this one did until they increased the threshold.
Honestly you come up with stuff you know nothing about.
PAYE is a tax return, done by employers.
It is fairly easy to identify those on pension credit who will have significant capital as virtually none do.
It is far more costly to identify pensioners with income up to £35k with significant capital as lots like you will do
I don't know how you have the nerve to type stuff you know nothing about.
PAYE is not a tax return. It has nothing whatsoever to do with a tax return. Tax returns are filled in by individuals after the end of the tax year. Most don't have to. PAYE is not just used by employers during the tax year, but also pension providers (with the exception of the state pension).
By the sounds of it you have never filled one in, nor know how PAYE works. Your P6 will determine your allowance then based upon this PAYE will work out your pro rata tax at each tax point on the assumption that your income to that point is pro rata for the year. It may not be, but that gets resolved each week/month as the calculation is done afresh and the difference between the tax ytd at the previous month is subtracted from that at this month and the difference is deducted in tax (or even refunded).
The calculation is usually done by computer. In the old days you had tax tables, although it is quite easy, if you know what you are doing to do it manually. I have on many occasions.
It is not a tax return in anyway.
Most benefits have a capital test except this one, particularly those aimed at low income individuals for obvious reasons, as WFA should be. Why this is different is simply because the Govt cocked up and had to U turn and got themselves in a mess. If it can be done for the others, it can be done for WFA, so you are wrong to say it is too difficult.
Is PAYE submitted direct to government to pay employees tax bills? It is. Is it therefore easy to remove allowances after submission of said bills? It is.
Is it going to cost a fortune to trace the capital of whinging whining tax minimising, capital hoarders like you? It is. As far more will have said capital up to £35k income like whinging/semi boasters like you.
Do most low income benefit/pension credit claimants have any capital of significance at all? No. Hence it is far easier to trace and costs next to nothing to do so.
So you want to impose massive admin costs on HMRC to trace all the capital the likes of you hoard, just because you won't shut up about still getting your WFA!!
Two super examples of dogs have 4 legs therefore anything with 4 legs is a dog logic there by @huyfd
a) People on benefits don't have significant capital because they are tested for it in the first place you idiot. That is the whole point of the capital test to stop people with capital claiming it. That is why there aren't any. If there wasn't a capital test there would be. It is 99% self declaration so not a huge cost.
b) PAYE is a collection method. not a tax return (as numerous people here have told you). It only deducts the correct amount by reference to the P6. The P6 is created automatically if your affairs are simple or via your tax return if not. If wrong you can get it changed. PAYE is not a tax return in any form whatsoever.
No people on benefits don't have significant capital as they poor, hence why they are on benefits as well as being well below average income
This whole conversation started with WFA payments to the rich.
WFA is *checks notes* a benefit.
Therefore, there are rich people on benefits.
Did they have a break for sleep or have HYUFD and khj been battling all night?
We might need cricket rules on here. Stop for bad light - or more when there's more heat than light
HYUFD is surely the Chris Tavare of argument ?
I'm pretty sure he's played on several times though. It's just that no one's paying attention to raise the finger.
No, I don't think he's let a single ball past. But he does keep treading on his stumps.
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
SEND is Starmer's next bear trap. Individual provision is unaffordable, but as Nick Ferrari demonstrated yesterday taking away special needs provision from needy little children is the Welfare Bill on steroids all over again.
The last Government were splendid at spending money they didn't have to scupper the next Government. Genius.
And people said Rishi was rubbish at politics.
Cheap political points scoring aside, every Council, irrespective of the party leading the administration, where it has a statutory provide to provide SEN services, is struggling.
The rise in SEN referrals since Covid has been astronomical and exponential - there simply aren't the qualified SEN teachers to carry out the assessments, the accommodation deemed to be required isn't available and building it costs a lot of money and third, the home to school transport costs for special needs children is equally ruinous.
The psychological impact of the lockdowns and the disruptions to normal social, educational and cultural life wrought by the pandemic have affected significant numbers of both children and adults as the numbers seeking SEN referrals and the numbers economically active down to mental health issues demonstrate.
Unfortunately, attitudes to those with mental health issues, whether children or adult, among some in the wider community remain in the dim and distant past.
My daughter should be in an interesting cohort. Children born September 2021 to August 2022; the first entirely after Covid. Will the quantity of SEN drop when she gets to school (She has no issues so far as we're aware), or is there a ratchet effect in place now ?
That's an interesting and valid point and the short answer, again, is I don't Know.
What will be interesting in education over the next 5-10 years will be the impact of the big declines in birth rates. Will we see councils closing or amalgamating primary schools and later secondary schools as pupil numbers fall off and the secondary impacts of that throughout the education sector will be considerable.
Councils don't run schools any more; academic trusts do.
Not so. Many smaller schools (primaries) are still under LEA management.
In the case of Academies, the land and buildings are held on a 999-year lease with a peppercorn payment and a condition of that lease is IF the school closes, the land and buildings revert back to the Council.
Glad to read that. One of my grandchildren works for a trust which has school scattered across South Essex, yet they have teachers with managerial or similar duties across several schools. I really don't understand how it works, economically.
It doesn't, really - academic trusts are charities. As an approach, it shouldn't work, but in my (highly partial - since my wife works for an academy chain) view, it does: there seems to be a greater level of success in focusing on what could be done to improve schools than under the council model (when, frankly, many councils did not appear particularly motivated)...
I am still in wild ecstatic warlike Dionysian Thrace. The archaeological museum here in Sofia is a gem - it has a vault of metal treasure which is basically Homer turned into iron and gold
The thracians were the brutal northern neighbours of the Greeks. Yet the Greeks needed their militant barbarity to become truly great - they absorbed the spirit of the north and harnessed it
Isn’t this true of almost every major European society? The Romans had the Germans. The franks the Norse. The Slavs the rus. The English the Scots
Even the Welsh have the north Welsh - in their mountain fastnesses, preserving the language
Every “civilised” nation needs a group of people they can use to break heads on their behalf. Contrary to popular belief, the Germans and Scandinavians who took service with the Romans were mostly very loyal to them, and only revolted when faced with betrayal by their employers.
Even in Camden and Primrose Hill we look at the barbarian northerners - Kentish Town, Gospel Oak - with a definite wariness. Tinged with respect for their aggression
It's probably linked to quality of agricultural land. The richer the agricultural land, the greater the attraction of the soft life: the poorer the land, the more earning a living by fighting for/with your rich neighbours becomes attractive. And in Europe at least, in general, the further south you go, the more people the land supports. (There are exceptions of course, like mountainous areas - but the Swiss were always used as mercenaries, so the same logic applies.) If this is true, there's probably a point at which it is flipped. Perhaps the Arabs - poor herders from their desert wastes - performed a similar role for the Ottomans?
The Mamluks largely did the job for the Ottomans - slave mercenaries originally from the Eurasian Steppe so hard people from a hard landscape.
Byzantium/Miklagard/Constantinople/Istanbul obviously has something in the water. The Varangian Guard of the Byzantine emperors was largely made up of Norsemen and Anglo Saxons while the Janissaries of the Ottomans were enslaved Christian boys from the Balkans. Modern Istanbul seems to manage to be quite warlike without foreign mercenaries.
Hope @Cyclefree is well enough to watch after all her work on it.
It's just a real shame that it's going to take so long to bring some of the actual criminals involved to justice, as that's a separate report.
Actually, justice will take even longer (first trials c.2028... if there are any).
The second report will talk about blame, but probably no more than that.
It's shocking that there have not been trials for attempting to pervert the course of justice already. Not remotely surprising, of course, but shocking.
The longer that's delayed, the less likely any successful prosecution. 2028, and counting...
I would be amazed if anyone was prosecuted.
At least Pauline Vennells won’t become Bishop of London.
The way this country is going she'll probably end up as Archbishop of Canterbury. No-one wants that role it seems.
She isn't even a bishop, there are plenty of good candidates like the Bishop of Chelmsford and Bishop of Salisbury for the role
Well David Tudor is going to rule the Bishoo of Chelmsford out,
I suspect it’s Salisbury or Newcastle simply because everyone else is tainted
SFAICS the current Bishop of Chelmsford has not acted wrongly WRT the Tudor case. The bishop with questions to answer is the former one, now Archbishop of York.
Newcastle is, IMHO, out of the runing sadly as she has said the right thing slightly too often. I hope I am wrong. She would be the best around.
Anyone looking for a proper AoC in the tradition of Richard Harries, Michael Ramsey, John Habgood or Rowan Williams is going to be disappointed. The species is going extinct.
(Harries was never AoC - he was Oxford.)
Yes. Nor was John Habgood, though he should have been. We would have been spared Mr Carey. What is going extinct is the central, liberal, theologically minded group who are also papabile for jobs like AoC.
There is not a single bishop on the bench who have written or could write an outstanding book on a New Testament or theological subject. (I am happy to be proved wrong).
Seriously - what about Martyn Percy? He was appallingly maltreated in the Christ Church safeguarding fiasco, to the extent that he is almost a martyr to the cause. He offended a lot of people who needed to be offended, and giving him the job might - just might - be the start of the "reformation" that the CofE needs.
I'm astonished to learn that the administration has been lying to the courts again.
Bombshell report alleges El Salvador disclaimed responsibility for those U.S. sent to CECOT https://www.lawdork.com/p/un-document-cecot-aea-birthright-law-firms?open=false#§the-alien-enemies-act-cases ..Documents the petitioners filed in the case allege that officials from El Salvador told the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, Working Group on Enforced or Involuntary Disappearances (WGEID) that the country’s “authorities have not arrested, detained, or transferred the persons referred to in the communications of the Working Group.” El Salvador, per the U.N. working group’s report attached to the filing, acknowledged that it had “facilitated the use of the Salvadoran prison infrastructure" by the U.S. — but also stated that, “[i]n this context, the jurisdiction and legal responsibility for these persons lie exclusively with the" U.S...
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
SEND is Starmer's next bear trap. Individual provision is unaffordable, but as Nick Ferrari demonstrated yesterday taking away special needs provision from needy little children is the Welfare Bill on steroids all over again.
The last Government were splendid at spending money they didn't have to scupper the next Government. Genius.
And people said Rishi was rubbish at politics.
Cheap political points scoring aside, every Council, irrespective of the party leading the administration, where it has a statutory provide to provide SEN services, is struggling.
The rise in SEN referrals since Covid has been astronomical and exponential - there simply aren't the qualified SEN teachers to carry out the assessments, the accommodation deemed to be required isn't available and building it costs a lot of money and third, the home to school transport costs for special needs children is equally ruinous.
The psychological impact of the lockdowns and the disruptions to normal social, educational and cultural life wrought by the pandemic have affected significant numbers of both children and adults as the numbers seeking SEN referrals and the numbers economically active down to mental health issues demonstrate.
Unfortunately, attitudes to those with mental health issues, whether children or adult, among some in the wider community remain in the dim and distant past.
My daughter should be in an interesting cohort. Children born September 2021 to August 2022; the first entirely after Covid. Will the quantity of SEN drop when she gets to school (She has no issues so far as we're aware), or is there a ratchet effect in place now ?
My education psychologist granddaughter considers that there are many children diagnosed as having mental health problems who actually don't have.
Not sure, of course, whether she's simply trying to reduce her workload.
I think both your points are true. I think lockdown caused a lot of SEN, but also - re OKC's granddaughter - it's certainly the case that we diagnose a lot of SEN which a generation ago would have just been part of the normal spectrum of childhood behaviour.
Other reasons for the increase in SEN include: Increased age of mothers - I have a hazy understanding that (though am happy to be corrected) that frequency of SEN is correlated to mothers' age at birth Improved ability to keep very premature babies alive - a generation ago, babies born at, say, 27 weeks would have almost certainly died - now we are able to keep them alive but in many cases they have quite severe SEN.
I've related before the experience I have with high flying pharmacy students - a huge proportion of them have some kind of DAP (disability action plan) and my suspicion that many are gaming the system to get extra time in exams. I suspect something similar here. Parents will be looking for advantages for their offspring. They will also probably prefer an official sounding diagnosis to the old approach of 'your child's just not that bright' or 'your child is a troublemaker'. We live in more enlightened times but while we are better at recognising issues we seem very open to abuse by cynical people.
As a retired pharmacist, and indeed a Fellow of the Pharmaceutical Society I'm concerned by this. Pharmacists often need to be 'nit pickers', getting everything right first time and picking up on the exceptional, which may or may not be an error, but they shouldn't need extra time to do it.
I have no expectation that Boots or the NHS will grant these students extra time in the real world. Primarily it is an educational advantage (and frequently not needed - most of our exams are NOT time limited, or have such generous time that the extra isn't used).
I hope that your first sentence is made clear to your students!
I'm also bemused by the concept of an exam which isn't time-limited.
I should clairfy - the exams have a time limit but there is ample time to complete the questions. For instance our first year chemistry paper was 3 hours - I think a good student would need no more than 1.5 - 2 hours. Many left before the end. I have no issue with this.
RIP. He was a good politician, even if I did not always agree with him. I wonder if he will best be remembered for the effect the Brighton Bombing had on him and, more significantly, his wife.
He'll be best remembered for the Cricket Test.
Which I fail, btw. Living in Yorkshire, supporting Durham.
"Come on, India!" Sunil said, gleefully, before he cried out in agony, clutching his head, as his Tebbit Chip activated.
"Aaaaaaarrrrrgh!"
Before a more servile expression crossed his face. "Must be loyal to England... Must be loyal..."
Hope @Cyclefree is well enough to watch after all her work on it.
It's just a real shame that it's going to take so long to bring some of the actual criminals involved to justice, as that's a separate report.
Actually, justice will take even longer (first trials c.2028... if there are any).
The second report will talk about blame, but probably no more than that.
I am spending the day in the garden sorting stuff for the shed which I have ordered. It is also a beautiful day.
The second report will not hold people criminally responsible because a public inquiry cannot legally do that. It is one of their failings but it will apportion blame.
In the meanwhile here is my Post Office Bingo Card for you to tick off:
- The human impact was awful. - It was made worse by the conduct of the Post Office and others, including its lawyers and governments over many years. - It is still continuing. - Compensation is due, is urgent, is too slow and the government needs to get a move on because the current situation is disgraceful. 350 of the ca. 900 SPMs affected have died without getting compensation or the return of the money fraudulently taken from them. - Tribute will be paid to the SPMs. - The government will welcome the report, say how terrible it all is and pretend that it has no power to do anything about compensation even though the Treasury's dead hands are all over it. - The Post Office will issue some PR guff about how sorry it is and how much it is doing. Someone will use the appalling phrase "at pace". - Most journalists will forget to ask why it is that Rodric Williams one of the shiftiest of the PO lawyers who gave evidence and who was heavily involved during the entire period when the problems were known about and covered up is now in charge of compensation at the Post Office. - The phrase "conflict of interest" will not be mentioned because no-one - other than me - seems to understand or recognise one, even when it is staring you in the face. - The government continues to think overturning convictions & giving out a few baubles is enough. - This is how all governments since at least Aberfan have operated. It is Potemkin justice.
Too cynical? Or just realistic? Let's see, shall we.
As long as the non-union members are happy with a pay freeze when the union members get the pay rise negotiated by their union, then no need for a closed shop.
Otherwise we have the Free Rider Problem.
Ah, so you don't believe in equal pay for equal work. Cool.
You think you get that in non-unionised workplaces, where nobody knows what their colleagues get paid?
Then somebody discovers that the newby is on £10k more than them and all hell breaks loose.
The evils of the closed shop are being forgotten; or excused. It is a club; if your face did not fit, or you did not pay the dues to the 'correct' hand, then you could not join. Unite is not the first union to show itself to be utterly corrupt.
Which is a shame, as unions can do a heck of a lot of good.
75% of the union at our place's efforts appear to be in discussing gender and/or sexuality.
Are they affiliated to the Scottish Green Party?
The FBU ( I'm a retired member) posted more about Gaza and the Trans court ruling ( they don’t agree with it and don't recognise it) on their FB page than they did about the crap payrise settlement they put to the working members.
Hope @Cyclefree is well enough to watch after all her work on it.
It's just a real shame that it's going to take so long to bring some of the actual criminals involved to justice, as that's a separate report.
Actually, justice will take even longer (first trials c.2028... if there are any).
The second report will talk about blame, but probably no more than that.
It's shocking that there have not been trials for attempting to pervert the course of justice already. Not remotely surprising, of course, but shocking.
Being in the game, I'm sure you will agree, however, that the prospect of a trial in three years' time is significant punishment for those involved and likely to be defendants. Everyone always wants things tied up - one way or the other - as quickly as possible and, innocent or guilty, these peoples' lives will be ruined for the years leading up to the trial. And no bad thing, either.
They need to be charged first and the trails are going to be complex.
When I suggested the 2 week /month court of appeal summer session to clear the cases I had a secondary thought. They could have had the post office lawyers there and as the post office worker was declared innocent the lawyer who used the horizon evidence (post the date issues had been known) could have been given a few extra months for contempt due to providing knowingly false evidence to the courts).
Almost better that they haven't been charged. Those involved will be cr*pping themselves. If there are ten people who are involved and nine charges are announced that tenth person will get off scot free (why do we say that btw). This way, all ten are worried until the charges are announced.
Isn’t “Scot free” just the reference to a lack of an extradition treaty between Scotland and England prior to unification?
Er, no. A scot is a mark or blemish. o get away scot free is to escape unharmed.
Little did you know that scot-free goes back to Old English, where scot was your share of the tavern bill, and later, a municipal tax. Someone who got off scot-free avoided paying their taxes. Today it refers to anyone getting away without punishment. And that's where the phrase to go scot-free came from.
Had a quick snoot at the MiC senedd polling tables now they are out and they have Labour holding up in the Valleys which seems counter narrative. And *subsample klaxon for a good chuckle* the tories are on 4% with 35 to 54 year olds, half their kiddy vote
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
SEND is Starmer's next bear trap. Individual provision is unaffordable, but as Nick Ferrari demonstrated yesterday taking away special needs provision from needy little children is the Welfare Bill on steroids all over again.
The last Government were splendid at spending money they didn't have to scupper the next Government. Genius.
And people said Rishi was rubbish at politics.
Cheap political points scoring aside, every Council, irrespective of the party leading the administration, where it has a statutory provide to provide SEN services, is struggling.
The rise in SEN referrals since Covid has been astronomical and exponential - there simply aren't the qualified SEN teachers to carry out the assessments, the accommodation deemed to be required isn't available and building it costs a lot of money and third, the home to school transport costs for special needs children is equally ruinous.
The psychological impact of the lockdowns and the disruptions to normal social, educational and cultural life wrought by the pandemic have affected significant numbers of both children and adults as the numbers seeking SEN referrals and the numbers economically active down to mental health issues demonstrate.
Unfortunately, attitudes to those with mental health issues, whether children or adult, among some in the wider community remain in the dim and distant past.
My daughter should be in an interesting cohort. Children born September 2021 to August 2022; the first entirely after Covid. Will the quantity of SEN drop when she gets to school (She has no issues so far as we're aware), or is there a ratchet effect in place now ?
That's an interesting and valid point and the short answer, again, is I don't Know.
What will be interesting in education over the next 5-10 years will be the impact of the big declines in birth rates. Will we see councils closing or amalgamating primary schools and later secondary schools as pupil numbers fall off and the secondary impacts of that throughout the education sector will be considerable.
It is a load of old bollocks. Wishy washy bad parenting and letting children do as they like , how come nobody used to have it. Good clip round the ear and discipline is what is needed, no wonder we are skint , every tom dick & harry has to have something wrong that needs mooney for them or spent on them.
Hope @Cyclefree is well enough to watch after all her work on it.
It's just a real shame that it's going to take so long to bring some of the actual criminals involved to justice, as that's a separate report.
Actually, justice will take even longer (first trials c.2028... if there are any).
The second report will talk about blame, but probably no more than that.
It's shocking that there have not been trials for attempting to pervert the course of justice already. Not remotely surprising, of course, but shocking.
Being in the game, I'm sure you will agree, however, that the prospect of a trial in three years' time is significant punishment for those involved and likely to be defendants. Everyone always wants things tied up - one way or the other - as quickly as possible and, innocent or guilty, these peoples' lives will be ruined for the years leading up to the trial. And no bad thing, either.
They need to be charged first and the trails are going to be complex.
When I suggested the 2 week /month court of appeal summer session to clear the cases I had a secondary thought. They could have had the post office lawyers there and as the post office worker was declared innocent the lawyer who used the horizon evidence (post the date issues had been known) could have been given a few extra months for contempt due to providing knowingly false evidence to the courts).
Almost better that they haven't been charged. Those involved will be cr*pping themselves. If there are ten people who are involved and nine charges are announced that tenth person will get off scot free (why do we say that btw). This way, all ten are worried until the charges are announced.
Isn’t “Scot free” just the reference to a lack of an extradition treaty between Scotland and England prior to unification?
Er, no. A scot is a mark or blemish. o get away scot free is to escape unharmed.
Little did you know that scot-free goes back to Old English, where scot was your share of the tavern bill, and later, a municipal tax. Someone who got off scot-free avoided paying their taxes. Today it refers to anyone getting away without punishment. And that's where the phrase to go scot-free came from.
Because when it came to paying tavern bill, there were suddenly no Scots there?
Hope @Cyclefree is well enough to watch after all her work on it.
It's just a real shame that it's going to take so long to bring some of the actual criminals involved to justice, as that's a separate report.
Actually, justice will take even longer (first trials c.2028... if there are any).
The second report will talk about blame, but probably no more than that.
It's shocking that there have not been trials for attempting to pervert the course of justice already. Not remotely surprising, of course, but shocking.
Being in the game, I'm sure you will agree, however, that the prospect of a trial in three years' time is significant punishment for those involved and likely to be defendants. Everyone always wants things tied up - one way or the other - as quickly as possible and, innocent or guilty, these peoples' lives will be ruined for the years leading up to the trial. And no bad thing, either.
They need to be charged first and the trails are going to be complex.
When I suggested the 2 week /month court of appeal summer session to clear the cases I had a secondary thought. They could have had the post office lawyers there and as the post office worker was declared innocent the lawyer who used the horizon evidence (post the date issues had been known) could have been given a few extra months for contempt due to providing knowingly false evidence to the courts).
Almost better that they haven't been charged. Those involved will be cr*pping themselves. If there are ten people who are involved and nine charges are announced that tenth person will get off scot free (why do we say that btw). This way, all ten are worried until the charges are announced.
Isn’t “Scot free” just the reference to a lack of an extradition treaty between Scotland and England prior to unification?
Er, no. A scot is a mark or blemish. o get away scot free is to escape unharmed.
Little did you know that scot-free goes back to Old English, where scot was your share of the tavern bill, and later, a municipal tax. Someone who got off scot-free avoided paying their taxes. Today it refers to anyone getting away without punishment. And that's where the phrase to go scot-free came from.
Because when it came to paying tavern bill, there were suddenly no Scots there?
I am still in wild ecstatic warlike Dionysian Thrace. The archaeological museum here in Sofia is a gem - it has a vault of metal treasure which is basically Homer turned into iron and gold
The thracians were the brutal northern neighbours of the Greeks. Yet the Greeks needed their militant barbarity to become truly great - they absorbed the spirit of the north and harnessed it
Isn’t this true of almost every major European society? The Romans had the Germans. The franks the Norse. The Slavs the rus. The English the Scots
Even the Welsh have the north Welsh - in their mountain fastnesses, preserving the language
Every “civilised” nation needs a group of people they can use to break heads on their behalf. Contrary to popular belief, the Germans and Scandinavians who took service with the Romans were mostly very loyal to them, and only revolted when faced with betrayal by their employers.
Even in Camden and Primrose Hill we look at the barbarian northerners - Kentish Town, Gospel Oak - with a definite wariness. Tinged with respect for their aggression
It's probably linked to quality of agricultural land. The richer the agricultural land, the greater the attraction of the soft life: the poorer the land, the more earning a living by fighting for/with your rich neighbours becomes attractive. And in Europe at least, in general, the further south you go, the more people the land supports. (There are exceptions of course, like mountainous areas - but the Swiss were always used as mercenaries, so the same logic applies.) If this is true, there's probably a point at which it is flipped. Perhaps the Arabs - poor herders from their desert wastes - performed a similar role for the Ottomans?
The Moroccans performed that role for both the French and the Spanish nationalists - superb fighters, and horrendously brutal towards civilian populations.
YouGovs government approval tracker has hit its lowest ever level for Labour at 13% approve. Suanks worst was 11% a couple of times. The fact the Tories are stuck in the mid to high teens with most polling despite this is very damning on their immediate prospects. Also, how long can Labour's floor hold at 21% or so on the back of catastrophic approval?
Morning all Polling start to the morning with YouGov this week Ref 28 (=) Lab 26 (=) Con 16 (-1) LD 15 (-1) Green 11 (+1)
And Sky/MiC have a Senedd poll out which will cheer Labour up a bit as they are back in the game, another absolute shocker for the Tories though 🔷Reform: 28% 🌼 Plaid Cymru: 26% 🌹 Labour: 23% 🌳 Conservatives: 10% 🟠 Lib Dems: 7% 🟩 Green:4% ⬜️Other: 2%
The misunderestimated fact at the moment in this polling is this: after a totally disastrous year in which not a single good thing can be said about them, Labour are only two points behind Reform.
In normal times (remember those?) they would be 20 points behind the Tories. People are beginning to forget they existed.
Bet accordingly. DYOR.
Focus on the Labour share, just 26%. The only reason they're not 20% behind is because we have a new party trying to take over from the Tories as the main opposition on the right.
Point of etiquette. Just learned that an old friend (44 years!) has died suddenly. In additon it turns out that the mother of his wife who we know quite well died 5 days previously. One condolence card or two? The former has a touch of the bogof about it.
Point of etiquette. Just learned that an old friend (44 years!) has died suddenly. In additon it turns out that the mother of his wife who we know quite well died 5 days previously. One condolence card or two? The former has a touch of the bogof about it.
YouGovs government approval tracker has hit its lowest ever level for Labour at 13% approve. Suanks worst was 11% a couple of times. The fact the Tories are stuck in the mid to high teens with most polling despite this is very damning on their immediate prospects. Also, how long can Labour's floor hold at 21% or so on the back of catastrophic approval?
Because a lot of votes are against people and not for them.
A lot of Labour voters might not approve of the government, but still be willing to vote for them to try to stop Reform or the Tories.
Edit: This is also why the Tories are in so much danger. A lot of their vote was an anti-Labour vote, and if Farage's lot look like a better bet for voting against Labour, then it's so much harder for them to make a comeback.
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
Yep. Adult Social Care responsibility was dumped by the Tories onto local councils but central government declined to fund most of it. But it permitted councils to add 5% onto the council tax to pay for it - a glorious wheeze they thought to get Labour councils adding 5% so that they could call them wasteful.
A few years down the line and councils have had years of government funding cuts whilst costs of service provision skyrockets. Its no surprise that councils can no longer absorb this - the maths just don't work.
Farage proposed scrapping adult social care I assume? Its just "common sense" that mental health is all just scroungers and faked?
Which I guess confirms how desperate Trump is to get it that he is even getting the least suitable leaders in the world to nominate him for it. I would have thought this nomination by itself is enough for the committee to reject Trump for ever..
If Trump wins the Nobel Peace prize it'll put dynamite under the whole tradition!!!
I saw what you did there. You paint an interesting picture.
Point of etiquette. Just learned that an old friend (44 years!) has died suddenly. In additon it turns out that the mother of his wife who we know quite well died 5 days previously. One condolence card or two? The former has a touch of the bogof about it.
Going to the wife? That has to be a single card because as you say it’s otherwise bogof and it would look bad.
The only exception would be if you had sent one regarding mum before the husband died.
Either way I think we all have sympathy for his wife her entire world has disappeared in a week
YouGovs government approval tracker has hit its lowest ever level for Labour at 13% approve. Suanks worst was 11% a couple of times. The fact the Tories are stuck in the mid to high teens with most polling despite this is very damning on their immediate prospects. Also, how long can Labour's floor hold at 21% or so on the back of catastrophic approval?
Because a lot of votes are against people and not for them.
A lot of Labour voters might not approve of the government, but still be willing to vote for them to try to stop Reform or the Tories.
Edit: This is also why the Tories are in so much danger. A lot of their vote was an anti-Labour vote, and if Farage's lot look like a better bet for voting against Labour, then it's so much harder for them to make a comeback.
Sure, but as approval declines, preparedness to do so eventually must crack
YouGovs government approval tracker has hit its lowest ever level for Labour at 13% approve. Suanks worst was 11% a couple of times. The fact the Tories are stuck in the mid to high teens with most polling despite this is very damning on their immediate prospects. Also, how long can Labour's floor hold at 21% or so on the back of catastrophic approval?
Because a lot of votes are against people and not for them.
A lot of Labour voters might not approve of the government, but still be willing to vote for them to try to stop Reform or the Tories.
Edit: This is also why the Tories are in so much danger. A lot of their vote was an anti-Labour vote, and if Farage's lot look like a better bet for voting against Labour, then it's so much harder for them to make a comeback.
Sure, but as approval declines, preparedness to do so eventually must crack
It already is cracking, but until they're leapfrogged by the Lib Dems or some other left party, there will always be a delta between the two.
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
Yep. Adult Social Care responsibility was dumped by the Tories onto local councils but central government declined to fund most of it. But it permitted councils to add 5% onto the council tax to pay for it - a glorious wheeze they thought to get Labour councils adding 5% so that they could call them wasteful.
A few years down the line and councils have had years of government funding cuts whilst costs of service provision skyrockets. Its no surprise that councils can no longer absorb this - the maths just don't work.
Farage proposed scrapping adult social care I assume? Its just "common sense" that mental health is all just scroungers and faked?
‘ Farage said: "If you've got two kids living next door to each other getting separate taxis that is crazy.
"To have crept to a position where school transport is costing taxpayers almost £100m per year is unacceptable."
He did say there would be exceptions for children with special educational needs.’
That's not the most detailed presentation of his ideas for reform. Sure, some system so that neighbouring kids can share a taxi seems like a good idea, but that's not going to save much money or represent the sort of radical change needed.
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
Yep. Adult Social Care responsibility was dumped by the Tories onto local councils but central government declined to fund most of it. But it permitted councils to add 5% onto the council tax to pay for it - a glorious wheeze they thought to get Labour councils adding 5% so that they could call them wasteful.
A few years down the line and councils have had years of government funding cuts whilst costs of service provision skyrockets. Its no surprise that councils can no longer absorb this - the maths just don't work.
Farage proposed scrapping adult social care I assume? Its just "common sense" that mental health is all just scroungers and faked?
YouGovs government approval tracker has hit its lowest ever level for Labour at 13% approve. Suanks worst was 11% a couple of times. The fact the Tories are stuck in the mid to high teens with most polling despite this is very damning on their immediate prospects. Also, how long can Labour's floor hold at 21% or so on the back of catastrophic approval?
Because a lot of votes are against people and not for them.
A lot of Labour voters might not approve of the government, but still be willing to vote for them to try to stop Reform or the Tories.
Edit: This is also why the Tories are in so much danger. A lot of their vote was an anti-Labour vote, and if Farage's lot look like a better bet for voting against Labour, then it's so much harder for them to make a comeback.
Sure, but as approval declines, preparedness to do so eventually must crack
It already is cracking, but until they're leapfrogged by the Lib Dems or some other left party, there will always be a delta between the two.
A council is facing an "imminent financial threat" because of rising demand for special educational needs and disability (SEND) services, its leader has warned.
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole (BCP) Council leader Millie Earl said the increasing cost was not fully funded by the government.
Will the Sultanas take votes from Labour or from Reform/Green? Have a suspicion that Reform could get squeezed here if the tack left into the ground held by Labour/Greens/Sultanas (a.k.a. Momentum). Reform may see their prize of power edge away from them - with Labour through the middle.
I think we’re starting to see polling numbers that will utterly break seat modelling. I’m going to be very nervous of any bets on seat numbers if they stick until polling day, especially noting the non-voters in the Reform samples.
I also think the right Tory leader change and the inevitable Reform scandal, could change a lot.
A council is facing an "imminent financial threat" because of rising demand for special educational needs and disability (SEND) services, its leader has warned.
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole (BCP) Council leader Millie Earl said the increasing cost was not fully funded by the government.
And?
that’s been known about for the past 5 years minimum. Councils simply don’t have the money to pay for the increasing amount of social care (both adult and child) costs that has been lumbered on them
If Nigel was bright he would be keeping quiet on the other local council issues and continually asking why social care has been dumped on councils to pay for
YouGovs government approval tracker has hit its lowest ever level for Labour at 13% approve. Suanks worst was 11% a couple of times. The fact the Tories are stuck in the mid to high teens with most polling despite this is very damning on their immediate prospects. Also, how long can Labour's floor hold at 21% or so on the back of catastrophic approval?
Because a lot of votes are against people and not for them.
A lot of Labour voters might not approve of the government, but still be willing to vote for them to try to stop Reform or the Tories.
Edit: This is also why the Tories are in so much danger. A lot of their vote was an anti-Labour vote, and if Farage's lot look like a better bet for voting against Labour, then it's so much harder for them to make a comeback.
Labour and the Conservatives need each other, for that reason. If one goes, so, in all likelihood, does the other.
YouGovs government approval tracker has hit its lowest ever level for Labour at 13% approve. Suanks worst was 11% a couple of times. The fact the Tories are stuck in the mid to high teens with most polling despite this is very damning on their immediate prospects. Also, how long can Labour's floor hold at 21% or so on the back of catastrophic approval?
Because a lot of votes are against people and not for them.
A lot of Labour voters might not approve of the government, but still be willing to vote for them to try to stop Reform or the Tories.
Edit: This is also why the Tories are in so much danger. A lot of their vote was an anti-Labour vote, and if Farage's lot look like a better bet for voting against Labour, then it's so much harder for them to make a comeback.
Labour and the Conservatives need each other, for that reason. If one goes, so, in all likelihood, does the other.
I'm shocked that giving into their demands hasn't made the strikes go away.
Rishi & co not giving in to their demands didn't make the strikes go away either. What to do..🤔
Not much you can do - they will strike for more money meanwhile operations will be cancelled.
Labour will have to emphasis that there is no more money sorry.
But we go back to the fact Labour didn’t tell voters the truth at the election or even last autumn so it’s hard now to say we really don’t have any money.
I think Starmer needs to get rid of Reeves so someone can have a fireside chat with the general public as to the actual issues and the fact money can’t be printed
It looks like the same grievance as they had last time.
Doctors pay was undoubtedly substantially eroded over the last 15-20 years, as was university academics. You can try to go back to the situation in 2007, say, or you can say that the world has changed, suck it up. However if you do the latter an awful lot of skilled medics discover that Aus and NZ are very welcoming...
I was just reading Tebbitt's wiki page, and came across the case of the "Ferrybridge Six": six electricians who were sacked from their jobs for not joining a closed shop in 1975. They were in a union; just the 'wrong' union, and the 'right' union refused to allow them to join. They lost unemployment benefits.
We've come a long way.
Thankfully.
(Michael Foot showed his nasty side in that case.)
A couple of weeks ago I tried to explain the Closed Shop concept, and its practical consequences, to my daughter and son-in-law. I don't think they believed me.
Genuine question - I can't think of any good things from a Closed Shop, but please explain why it is so bad?
Not sure doctors will receive the same level of public support they did last time given the huge increase they were awarded last year .
That’s the thing - sympathy is going to quickly disappear if Streeting keeps repeating you got 22% last year.
As for wanting pay to be back to 2008 levels I would love to be being paid what I was then, ideally I would love to return to my 1999 rates adjusted for inflation but it isn’t going to happen
Is it just me of does Dmitry Peskov look like he was the bass player in Kajagoogoo in a past career and now has the less embarrassing role of Kremlin Spokesman?
I think we’re starting to see polling numbers that will utterly break seat modelling. I’m going to be very nervous of any bets on seat numbers if they stick until polling day, especially noting the non-voters in the Reform samples.
I also think the right Tory leader change and the inevitable Reform scandal, could change a lot.
I think that’s right.
I do think, despite the fact they’re languishing in a terrible position in the polls, there are factors at play that could start to spur a modest Tory recovery. I don’t know if it’s quite enough to win an election (probably, at this stage, not) but potentially enough to avoid being relegated to minor party status.
There are I think enough voters who understand that there are tough decisions to be made who also realise that the Labour Party are increasingly unlikely to make them, and Reform’s promises are cakeist. The Tories are, despite their cataclysmic last spell in government, a party that can probably try and sell that angle. As I say, do I think it’s a GE-winning message? Probably not. But it might be enough to entice back some of the middle England vote.
It looks like the same grievance as they had last time.
Doctors pay was undoubtedly substantially eroded over the last 15-20 years, as was university academics. You can try to go back to the situation in 2007, say, or you can say that the world has changed, suck it up. However if you do the latter an awful lot of skilled medics discover that Aus and NZ are very welcoming...
The issue is that if you put medics back to where they would have been with real terms pay increases, the rest of us might want a piece of the action as well. And a plurality of the public won’t understand why we shouldn’t.
Over 90% in support. Labour will cave quickly and the ten year plan will be dead in the water Or they dig in and waiting lists will go stratospheric again
Not sure doctors will receive the same level of public support they did last time given the huge increase they were awarded last year .
That’s the thing - sympathy is going to quickly disappear if Streeting keeps repeating you got 22% last year.
As for wanting pay to be back to 2008 levels I would love to be being paid what I was then, ideally I would love to return to my 1999 rates adjusted for inflation but it isn’t going to happen
There's an element of you only know what you know. I've "only" been working since 2009, so can't make such comparisons.
I think we’re starting to see polling numbers that will utterly break seat modelling. I’m going to be very nervous of any bets on seat numbers if they stick until polling day, especially noting the non-voters in the Reform samples.
I also think the right Tory leader change and the inevitable Reform scandal, could change a lot.
I think that’s right.
I do think, despite the fact they’re languishing in a terrible position in the polls, there are factors at play that could start to spur a modest Tory recovery. I don’t know if it’s quite enough to win an election (probably, at this stage, not) but potentially enough to avoid being relegated to minor party status.
There are I think enough voters who understand that there are tough decisions to be made who also realise that the Labour Party are increasingly unlikely to make them, and Reform’s promises are cakeist. The Tories are, despite their cataclysmic last spell in government, a party that can probably try and sell that angle. As I say, do I think it’s a GE-winning message? Probably not. But it might be enough to entice back some of the middle England vote.
A nice mathematically pleasing result could still happen
Ref 24 Con 24 Lab 24 LD 12 Green 6 Dried Fruit 6 SNP 3
It looks like the same grievance as they had last time.
Doctors pay was undoubtedly substantially eroded over the last 15-20 years, as was university academics. You can try to go back to the situation in 2007, say, or you can say that the world has changed, suck it up. However if you do the latter an awful lot of skilled medics discover that Aus and NZ are very welcoming...
The issue is that if you put medics back to where they would have been with real terms pay increases, the rest of us might want a piece of the action as well. And a plurality of the public won’t understand why we shouldn’t.
Well quite, thats why I included the comparison with Uni academics.
I was just reading Tebbitt's wiki page, and came across the case of the "Ferrybridge Six": six electricians who were sacked from their jobs for not joining a closed shop in 1975. They were in a union; just the 'wrong' union, and the 'right' union refused to allow them to join. They lost unemployment benefits.
We've come a long way.
Thankfully.
(Michael Foot showed his nasty side in that case.)
A couple of weeks ago I tried to explain the Closed Shop concept, and its practical consequences, to my daughter and son-in-law. I don't think they believed me.
Genuine question - I can't think of any good things from a Closed Shop, but please explain why it is so bad?
It's "so bad" (in my opinion) because it compels membership of an organisation to which an individual might not want to join. It might be different now, but in the 1960s and 1970s membership of most industrial unions meant that some of your subs were going to the Labour Party, even if you were a member of another political party. (The "political levy" was a smokescreen - the unions funded the Labour Party, lent it staff and premises during elections, and had a significant influence on its internal elections.) The Ferrybridge Six example was a classic of the genre - six electricians were members of a union, but their employer negotiated an agreement with another union that only the latter would be recognised. As a closed shop was in operation, the six men had to either resign from their union and join the new one, or become unemployed. They chose the latter course of action, and were deemed to have made themselves voluntarily unemployed.
I cannot be forcd to belong to a church or a club or a residents association - why should I be compelled to join something that gets in the way (for good or ill) between me and my employer?
Is it just me of does Dmitry Peskov look like he was the bass player in Kajagoogoo in a past career and now has the less embarrassing role of Kremlin Spokesman?
More like a centre half for the Hamilton Accies, c1985. Which may not be that different a vibe from the Kajs.
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
SEND is Starmer's next bear trap. Individual provision is unaffordable, but as Nick Ferrari demonstrated yesterday taking away special needs provision from needy little children is the Welfare Bill on steroids all over again.
The last Government were splendid at spending money they didn't have to scupper the next Government. Genius.
And people said Rishi was rubbish at politics.
Cheap political points scoring aside, every Council, irrespective of the party leading the administration, where it has a statutory provide to provide SEN services, is struggling.
The rise in SEN referrals since Covid has been astronomical and exponential - there simply aren't the qualified SEN teachers to carry out the assessments, the accommodation deemed to be required isn't available and building it costs a lot of money and third, the home to school transport costs for special needs children is equally ruinous.
The psychological impact of the lockdowns and the disruptions to normal social, educational and cultural life wrought by the pandemic have affected significant numbers of both children and adults as the numbers seeking SEN referrals and the numbers economically active down to mental health issues demonstrate.
Unfortunately, attitudes to those with mental health issues, whether children or adult, among some in the wider community remain in the dim and distant past.
My daughter should be in an interesting cohort. Children born September 2021 to August 2022; the first entirely after Covid. Will the quantity of SEN drop when she gets to school (She has no issues so far as we're aware), or is there a ratchet effect in place now ?
That's an interesting and valid point and the short answer, again, is I don't Know.
What will be interesting in education over the next 5-10 years will be the impact of the big declines in birth rates. Will we see councils closing or amalgamating primary schools and later secondary schools as pupil numbers fall off and the secondary impacts of that throughout the education sector will be considerable.
It is a load of old bollocks. Wishy washy bad parenting and letting children do as they like , how come nobody used to have it. Good clip round the ear and discipline is what is needed, no wonder we are skint , every tom dick & harry has to have something wrong that needs mooney for them or spent on them.
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
Yep. Adult Social Care responsibility was dumped by the Tories onto local councils but central government declined to fund most of it. But it permitted councils to add 5% onto the council tax to pay for it - a glorious wheeze they thought to get Labour councils adding 5% so that they could call them wasteful.
A few years down the line and councils have had years of government funding cuts whilst costs of service provision skyrockets. Its no surprise that councils can no longer absorb this - the maths just don't work.
Farage proposed scrapping adult social care I assume? Its just "common sense" that mental health is all just scroungers and faked?
‘ Farage said: "If you've got two kids living next door to each other getting separate taxis that is crazy.
"To have crept to a position where school transport is costing taxpayers almost £100m per year is unacceptable."
He did say there would be exceptions for children with special educational needs.’
That is crazy. And if it is happening it's utter incompetence. My kids both had rural school transport. They got on a bus with a couple of dozen others from farms and hamlets.
Is it just me of does Dmitry Peskov look like he was the bass player in Kajagoogoo in a past career and now has the less embarrassing role of Kremlin Spokesman?
He’s a philologist and expert in Turkic languages.
I was just reading Tebbitt's wiki page, and came across the case of the "Ferrybridge Six": six electricians who were sacked from their jobs for not joining a closed shop in 1975. They were in a union; just the 'wrong' union, and the 'right' union refused to allow them to join. They lost unemployment benefits.
We've come a long way.
Thankfully.
(Michael Foot showed his nasty side in that case.)
A couple of weeks ago I tried to explain the Closed Shop concept, and its practical consequences, to my daughter and son-in-law. I don't think they believed me.
Genuine question - I can't think of any good things from a Closed Shop, but please explain why it is so bad?
It's "so bad" (in my opinion) because it compels membership of an organisation to which an individual might not want to join. It might be different now, but in the 1960s and 1970s membership of most industrial unions meant that some of your subs were going to the Labour Party, even if you were a member of another political party. (The "political levy" was a smokescreen - the unions funded the Labour Party, lent it staff and premises during elections, and had a significant influence on its internal elections.) The Ferrybridge Six example was a classic of the genre - six electricians were members of a union, but their employer negotiated an agreement with another union that only the latter would be recognised. As a closed shop was in operation, the six men had to either resign from their union and join the new one, or become unemployed. They chose the latter course of action, and were deemed to have made themselves voluntarily unemployed.
I cannot be forcd to belong to a church or a club or a residents association - why should I be compelled to join something that gets in the way (for good or ill) between me and my employer?
It's a huge restrictive practice. You can't work for a particular employer, if the union doesn't want you. And, you can lose your job if the union expels you (for example, for refusing to strike).
It's one of those things that seems so weird, you wonder how it could ever have been legal.
Is it just me of does Dmitry Peskov look like he was the bass player in Kajagoogoo in a past career and now has the less embarrassing role of Kremlin Spokesman?
He’s a philologist and expert in Turkic languages.
I think we’re starting to see polling numbers that will utterly break seat modelling. I’m going to be very nervous of any bets on seat numbers if they stick until polling day, especially noting the non-voters in the Reform samples.
I also think the right Tory leader change and the inevitable Reform scandal, could change a lot.
Whilst sub samples are obviously not weighted, its worth keeping your eye on them to assist with rough seat ideas. For example, if Reform are surging in NE, NW, Midlands, Yorkshire etc and Tories are holding up in South, East, London but tanking up north it makes a massive difference to both seats and Labour's prospects
There’s a way we can afford to give doctors and other frontline workers better and more internationally competitive pay, but it’s once again linked to realising the state can’t do everything and significant institutional reform and legislative rollback is required.
I was just reading Tebbitt's wiki page, and came across the case of the "Ferrybridge Six": six electricians who were sacked from their jobs for not joining a closed shop in 1975. They were in a union; just the 'wrong' union, and the 'right' union refused to allow them to join. They lost unemployment benefits.
We've come a long way.
Thankfully.
(Michael Foot showed his nasty side in that case.)
A couple of weeks ago I tried to explain the Closed Shop concept, and its practical consequences, to my daughter and son-in-law. I don't think they believed me.
Genuine question - I can't think of any good things from a Closed Shop, but please explain why it is so bad?
It's "so bad" (in my opinion) because it compels membership of an organisation to which an individual might not want to join. It might be different now, but in the 1960s and 1970s membership of most industrial unions meant that some of your subs were going to the Labour Party, even if you were a member of another political party. (The "political levy" was a smokescreen - the unions funded the Labour Party, lent it staff and premises during elections, and had a significant influence on its internal elections.) The Ferrybridge Six example was a classic of the genre - six electricians were members of a union, but their employer negotiated an agreement with another union that only the latter would be recognised. As a closed shop was in operation, the six men had to either resign from their union and join the new one, or become unemployed. They chose the latter course of action, and were deemed to have made themselves voluntarily unemployed.
I cannot be forcd to belong to a church or a club or a residents association - why should I be compelled to join something that gets in the way (for good or ill) between me and my employer?
It's a huge restrictive practice. You can't work for a particular employer, if the union doesn't want you. And, you can lose your job if the union expels you (for example, for refusing to strike).
It's one of those things that seems so weird, you wonder how it could ever have been legal.
Absolutely right! And, looking back at the 1960s and 1970s, it's extraordinary to see how some of the finest minds in the land (politicians, lawyers, academics) were somehow able to justify it.
"And while getting a measure of public debt falling as a share of GDP has featured in eight out of nine UK fiscal frameworks since 2010, underlying debt has risen by 24 per cent of GDP over the past 15 years and by 60 per cent of GDP over the past 20."
Errors in the system: The Post Office and Fujitsu "knew, or at the very least should have known", the Horizon IT system used in PO branches had faults. The sub-postmasters are also described as “victims of wholly unacceptable behaviour” by the two companies
Impact on sub-postmasters and their families: It is “impossible to ascertain” how many people suffered, the report says. Many endured abuse in their local communities, considered or subjected themselves to self-harm, suffered psychological harm, lost their homes, suffered financial, physical and mental distress, and turned to alcoholism
Lives lost: Thirteen people were found to have taken their own lives, six former sub-postmasters and seven others, who were not sub-postmasters. The inquiry's chair Wyn Williams says he also "received evidence from at least 59 persons who contemplated suicide at various points in time and who attributed this to their experiences with Horizon and/or the Post Office"
The key numbers: Approximately 1,000 people were prosecuted, and only 50-60 were not convicted. Thousands were suspended – the considerably more than those who faced criminal proceedings – and many later had their contracts terminated
Delays to compensation: The delivery of redress to claimants under the three schemes has been “bedevilled with unjustifiable delays”, and while some are satisfied, there are many who are not
Redress: The government will devise a programme of redress to close family members of those most adversely affected. Additionally, the government, Post Office and Fujitsu will agree a programme of restorative justice
Point of etiquette. Just learned that an old friend (44 years!) has died suddenly. In additon it turns out that the mother of his wife who we know quite well died 5 days previously. One condolence card or two? The former has a touch of the bogof about it.
Two cards plus a letter. Cards are cheap. Friendship is priceless.
Is it just me of does Dmitry Peskov look like he was the bass player in Kajagoogoo in a past career and now has the less embarrassing role of Kremlin Spokesman?
More like a centre half for the Hamilton Accies, c1985. Which may not be that different a vibe from the Kajs.
Nick Beggs is a damn fine bass player. Looks far groovier now than he did back in the day, though.
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
SEND is Starmer's next bear trap. Individual provision is unaffordable, but as Nick Ferrari demonstrated yesterday taking away special needs provision from needy little children is the Welfare Bill on steroids all over again.
The last Government were splendid at spending money they didn't have to scupper the next Government. Genius.
And people said Rishi was rubbish at politics.
Cheap political points scoring aside, every Council, irrespective of the party leading the administration, where it has a statutory provide to provide SEN services, is struggling.
The rise in SEN referrals since Covid has been astronomical and exponential - there simply aren't the qualified SEN teachers to carry out the assessments, the accommodation deemed to be required isn't available and building it costs a lot of money and third, the home to school transport costs for special needs children is equally ruinous.
The psychological impact of the lockdowns and the disruptions to normal social, educational and cultural life wrought by the pandemic have affected significant numbers of both children and adults as the numbers seeking SEN referrals and the numbers economically active down to mental health issues demonstrate.
Unfortunately, attitudes to those with mental health issues, whether children or adult, among some in the wider community remain in the dim and distant past.
My daughter should be in an interesting cohort. Children born September 2021 to August 2022; the first entirely after Covid. Will the quantity of SEN drop when she gets to school (She has no issues so far as we're aware), or is there a ratchet effect in place now ?
That's an interesting and valid point and the short answer, again, is I don't Know.
What will be interesting in education over the next 5-10 years will be the impact of the big declines in birth rates. Will we see councils closing or amalgamating primary schools and later secondary schools as pupil numbers fall off and the secondary impacts of that throughout the education sector will be considerable.
It is a load of old bollocks. Wishy washy bad parenting and letting children do as they like , how come nobody used to have it. Good clip round the ear and discipline is what is needed, no wonder we are skint , every tom dick & harry has to have something wrong that needs mooney for them or spent on them.
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
Yep. Adult Social Care responsibility was dumped by the Tories onto local councils but central government declined to fund most of it. But it permitted councils to add 5% onto the council tax to pay for it - a glorious wheeze they thought to get Labour councils adding 5% so that they could call them wasteful.
A few years down the line and councils have had years of government funding cuts whilst costs of service provision skyrockets. Its no surprise that councils can no longer absorb this - the maths just don't work.
Farage proposed scrapping adult social care I assume? Its just "common sense" that mental health is all just scroungers and faked?
‘ Farage said: "If you've got two kids living next door to each other getting separate taxis that is crazy.
"To have crept to a position where school transport is costing taxpayers almost £100m per year is unacceptable."
He did say there would be exceptions for children with special educational needs.’
That is crazy. And if it is happening it's utter incompetence. My kids both had rural school transport. They got on a bus with a couple of dozen others from farms and hamlets.
Well I know from what my local councillor tells me this sort of thing does go on.
He was on the cabinet during the coalition in Durham.
One example being two children in the same home having to separate taxis to the same school. Can’t remember the reason.
I think we’re starting to see polling numbers that will utterly break seat modelling. I’m going to be very nervous of any bets on seat numbers if they stick until polling day, especially noting the non-voters in the Reform samples.
I also think the right Tory leader change and the inevitable Reform scandal, could change a lot.
I think that’s right.
I do think, despite the fact they’re languishing in a terrible position in the polls, there are factors at play that could start to spur a modest Tory recovery. I don’t know if it’s quite enough to win an election (probably, at this stage, not) but potentially enough to avoid being relegated to minor party status.
There are I think enough voters who understand that there are tough decisions to be made who also realise that the Labour Party are increasingly unlikely to make them, and Reform’s promises are cakeist. The Tories are, despite their cataclysmic last spell in government, a party that can probably try and sell that angle. As I say, do I think it’s a GE-winning message? Probably not. But it might be enough to entice back some of the middle England vote.
A nice mathematically pleasing result could still happen
Ref 24 Con 24 Lab 24 LD 12 Green 6 Dried Fruit 6 SNP 3
ISTR a lovely opinion poll during Lab's nadir a few years back of Con 48, Lab 24, LD 12, UKIP or current equivalent 6, Green 3. I may be wrong.
There’s a way we can afford to give doctors and other frontline workers better and more internationally competitive pay, but it’s once again linked to realising the state can’t do everything and significant institutional reform and legislative rollback is required.
Last year Labour rolled over and gave them what they wanted and got nothing in return.
This year they should, at least, try to get some reform as the Tories were doing.
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
SEND is Starmer's next bear trap. Individual provision is unaffordable, but as Nick Ferrari demonstrated yesterday taking away special needs provision from needy little children is the Welfare Bill on steroids all over again.
The last Government were splendid at spending money they didn't have to scupper the next Government. Genius.
And people said Rishi was rubbish at politics.
Cheap political points scoring aside, every Council, irrespective of the party leading the administration, where it has a statutory provide to provide SEN services, is struggling.
The rise in SEN referrals since Covid has been astronomical and exponential - there simply aren't the qualified SEN teachers to carry out the assessments, the accommodation deemed to be required isn't available and building it costs a lot of money and third, the home to school transport costs for special needs children is equally ruinous.
The psychological impact of the lockdowns and the disruptions to normal social, educational and cultural life wrought by the pandemic have affected significant numbers of both children and adults as the numbers seeking SEN referrals and the numbers economically active down to mental health issues demonstrate.
Unfortunately, attitudes to those with mental health issues, whether children or adult, among some in the wider community remain in the dim and distant past.
My daughter should be in an interesting cohort. Children born September 2021 to August 2022; the first entirely after Covid. Will the quantity of SEN drop when she gets to school (She has no issues so far as we're aware), or is there a ratchet effect in place now ?
That's an interesting and valid point and the short answer, again, is I don't Know.
What will be interesting in education over the next 5-10 years will be the impact of the big declines in birth rates. Will we see councils closing or amalgamating primary schools and later secondary schools as pupil numbers fall off and the secondary impacts of that throughout the education sector will be considerable.
It is a load of old bollocks. Wishy washy bad parenting and letting children do as they like , how come nobody used to have it. Good clip round the ear and discipline is what is needed, no wonder we are skint , every tom dick & harry has to have something wrong that needs mooney for them or spent on them.
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
Yep. Adult Social Care responsibility was dumped by the Tories onto local councils but central government declined to fund most of it. But it permitted councils to add 5% onto the council tax to pay for it - a glorious wheeze they thought to get Labour councils adding 5% so that they could call them wasteful.
A few years down the line and councils have had years of government funding cuts whilst costs of service provision skyrockets. Its no surprise that councils can no longer absorb this - the maths just don't work.
Farage proposed scrapping adult social care I assume? Its just "common sense" that mental health is all just scroungers and faked?
‘ Farage said: "If you've got two kids living next door to each other getting separate taxis that is crazy.
"To have crept to a position where school transport is costing taxpayers almost £100m per year is unacceptable."
He did say there would be exceptions for children with special educational needs.’
That is crazy. And if it is happening it's utter incompetence. My kids both had rural school transport. They got on a bus with a couple of dozen others from farms and hamlets.
Well I know from what my local councillor tells me this sort of thing does go on.
He was on the cabinet during the coalition in Durham.
One example being two children in the same home having to separate taxis to the same school. Can’t remember the reason.
Fighting between the children wouldn’t surprise me if SEN
I think we’re starting to see polling numbers that will utterly break seat modelling. I’m going to be very nervous of any bets on seat numbers if they stick until polling day, especially noting the non-voters in the Reform samples.
I also think the right Tory leader change and the inevitable Reform scandal, could change a lot.
Whilst sub samples are obviously not weighted, its worth keeping your eye on them to assist with rough seat ideas. For example, if Reform are surging in NE, NW, Midlands, Yorkshire etc and Tories are holding up in South, East, London but tanking up north it makes a massive difference to both seats and Labour's prospects
Polling suggests that support for Reform has surged most strongly among social renters, and working class voters, whereas Labour's support has held up most strongly, further up the social scale. That would suggest that Labour would lose a string of historic constituencies, in the North, urban Midlands, and South Wales, as well as seats like Dartford or Thurrock which they gained off the Tories, whilst Labour would hold Greater London, university seats, and city centres.
Is it just me of does Dmitry Peskov look like he was the bass player in Kajagoogoo in a past career and now has the less embarrassing role of Kremlin Spokesman?
He’s a philologist and expert in Turkic languages.
The Tories could finish fifth, behind the SNP, although they may still finish ahead of the Greens and Plaid.
I have really been surprised at how quickly the Conservatives have been written off by some following there defeat after 14 years in power which involved both one of the most economically challenging global financial periods and also the most difficult global health crisis in a century. They also steered us through 2 divisive Referendums on issues that were not going to be answered any other way at the time politically via a GE. Lets not forget Labour and the Libdems also suffered difficult GE defeats severely depleating their numbers in recent years. We are still four years away from the next GE unless this Labour Government completely implodes and collapses unable to govern despite its current massive majority and the turkeys sitting on their backbenches collapse in a puddle and decide to vote to have an early Christmas GE.
Reform's success has been by and large personality driven by one individual who has been around in UK politics for over 30 years on now what is his 3rd reincarnation as leader of an anti-establishment one issue party. Admittedly Farage has a bit more going for him this time around, his own week night political PR platform on a pro Reform 24/7 news channel that allows him to get a bit more publicity and make a bit more noise than normal. But are we really saying that one man who doesn't like the boring day to day grind of politics at Westminster when there is not a live feed camera about while leading yet again another incredible divisive and factional party of mavericks from across the political divide is going to finally manage to do what UKIP or the Brexit party under him both failed to do and keep the whole show on the road unscathed for another four years until the next GE?
The biggest irony is the fact that the Libdems achieved more MPs at Westminster making far less of an impression on the country before or after the GE while being led by a man that most voters would struggle to name. UK politics is in flux right now, and even more so because of how quickly this current Labour Government's unpopular leaderhsip and policy decisions have not only failed to engage the electorate but made them really angry. But I am not going to bet the farm on the outcome of the next GE on the basis of current weekly internet polling today.
Lets face it, the SNP's record in power in Scotland has been one long list of failures and scandals, most go largely under the radar due to the shocking lack of interest from the UK media. At the end of the day, its still the UK economy that will be the single biggest issue come the next GE, and especially after this Labour Government's term in office and I have not seen anything yet from Farage or Reform and their ragbag maverick group of 4/5 MPs that suggests they will be in a position to win the confidence of the UK electorate on this issue by the end of Trump's term in Office..
I think we’re starting to see polling numbers that will utterly break seat modelling. I’m going to be very nervous of any bets on seat numbers if they stick until polling day, especially noting the non-voters in the Reform samples.
I also think the right Tory leader change and the inevitable Reform scandal, could change a lot.
I think that’s right.
I do think, despite the fact they’re languishing in a terrible position in the polls, there are factors at play that could start to spur a modest Tory recovery. I don’t know if it’s quite enough to win an election (probably, at this stage, not) but potentially enough to avoid being relegated to minor party status.
There are I think enough voters who understand that there are tough decisions to be made who also realise that the Labour Party are increasingly unlikely to make them, and Reform’s promises are cakeist. The Tories are, despite their cataclysmic last spell in government, a party that can probably try and sell that angle. As I say, do I think it’s a GE-winning message? Probably not. But it might be enough to entice back some of the middle England vote.
A nice mathematically pleasing result could still happen
Ref 24 Con 24 Lab 24 LD 12 Green 6 Dried Fruit 6 SNP 3
ISTR a lovely opinion poll during Lab's nadir a few years back of Con 48, Lab 24, LD 12, UKIP or current equivalent 6, Green 3. I may be wrong.
I think we’re starting to see polling numbers that will utterly break seat modelling. I’m going to be very nervous of any bets on seat numbers if they stick until polling day, especially noting the non-voters in the Reform samples.
I also think the right Tory leader change and the inevitable Reform scandal, could change a lot.
Whilst sub samples are obviously not weighted, its worth keeping your eye on them to assist with rough seat ideas. For example, if Reform are surging in NE, NW, Midlands, Yorkshire etc and Tories are holding up in South, East, London but tanking up north it makes a massive difference to both seats and Labour's prospects
At the moment, it’s entirely plausible that all of the parties end up fighting a war on several fronts in the GE (Labour vs Tories in midlands and south and vs Reform in the red wall, Tories vs pretty much everyone).
It’s not entirely implausible to imagine a result of say 160 LAB/160 CON/160 REF/100 LD or there abouts, give or take 20-30 seats.
Is it just me of does Dmitry Peskov look like he was the bass player in Kajagoogoo in a past career and now has the less embarrassing role of Kremlin Spokesman?
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
SEND is Starmer's next bear trap. Individual provision is unaffordable, but as Nick Ferrari demonstrated yesterday taking away special needs provision from needy little children is the Welfare Bill on steroids all over again.
The last Government were splendid at spending money they didn't have to scupper the next Government. Genius.
And people said Rishi was rubbish at politics.
Cheap political points scoring aside, every Council, irrespective of the party leading the administration, where it has a statutory provide to provide SEN services, is struggling.
The rise in SEN referrals since Covid has been astronomical and exponential - there simply aren't the qualified SEN teachers to carry out the assessments, the accommodation deemed to be required isn't available and building it costs a lot of money and third, the home to school transport costs for special needs children is equally ruinous.
The psychological impact of the lockdowns and the disruptions to normal social, educational and cultural life wrought by the pandemic have affected significant numbers of both children and adults as the numbers seeking SEN referrals and the numbers economically active down to mental health issues demonstrate.
Unfortunately, attitudes to those with mental health issues, whether children or adult, among some in the wider community remain in the dim and distant past.
My daughter should be in an interesting cohort. Children born September 2021 to August 2022; the first entirely after Covid. Will the quantity of SEN drop when she gets to school (She has no issues so far as we're aware), or is there a ratchet effect in place now ?
That's an interesting and valid point and the short answer, again, is I don't Know.
What will be interesting in education over the next 5-10 years will be the impact of the big declines in birth rates. Will we see councils closing or amalgamating primary schools and later secondary schools as pupil numbers fall off and the secondary impacts of that throughout the education sector will be considerable.
It is a load of old bollocks. Wishy washy bad parenting and letting children do as they like , how come nobody used to have it. Good clip round the ear and discipline is what is needed, no wonder we are skint , every tom dick & harry has to have something wrong that needs mooney for them or spent on them.
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
Yep. Adult Social Care responsibility was dumped by the Tories onto local councils but central government declined to fund most of it. But it permitted councils to add 5% onto the council tax to pay for it - a glorious wheeze they thought to get Labour councils adding 5% so that they could call them wasteful.
A few years down the line and councils have had years of government funding cuts whilst costs of service provision skyrockets. Its no surprise that councils can no longer absorb this - the maths just don't work.
Farage proposed scrapping adult social care I assume? Its just "common sense" that mental health is all just scroungers and faked?
‘ Farage said: "If you've got two kids living next door to each other getting separate taxis that is crazy.
"To have crept to a position where school transport is costing taxpayers almost £100m per year is unacceptable."
He did say there would be exceptions for children with special educational needs.’
That is crazy. And if it is happening it's utter incompetence. My kids both had rural school transport. They got on a bus with a couple of dozen others from farms and hamlets.
Well I know from what my local councillor tells me this sort of thing does go on.
He was on the cabinet during the coalition in Durham.
One example being two children in the same home having to separate taxis to the same school. Can’t remember the reason.
My SEN school takes kids from all over rural SE and mid Northumberland. The overwhelming majority come on buses. A tiny minority from the most outlying areas come in taxis. But they are shared between at least three kids. Only one I can think of comes individually in a taxi. But that is for everyone's safety, and is a quite exceptional case. Can't see any reason, other than utter incompetence, why two kids would be allowed to live at the same address, but not take the same transport.
Hope @Cyclefree is well enough to watch after all her work on it.
It's just a real shame that it's going to take so long to bring some of the actual criminals involved to justice, as that's a separate report.
Actually, justice will take even longer (first trials c.2028... if there are any).
The second report will talk about blame, but probably no more than that.
I am spending the day in the garden sorting stuff for the shed which I have ordered. It is also a beautiful day.
The second report will not hold people criminally responsible because a public inquiry cannot legally do that. It is one of their failings but it will apportion blame.
In the meanwhile here is my Post Office Bingo Card for you to tick off:
- The human impact was awful. - It was made worse by the conduct of the Post Office and others, including its lawyers and governments over many years. - It is still continuing. - Compensation is due, is urgent, is too slow and the government needs to get a move on because the current situation is disgraceful. 350 of the ca. 900 SPMs affected have died without getting compensation or the return of the money fraudulently taken from them. - Tribute will be paid to the SPMs. - The government will welcome the report, say how terrible it all is and pretend that it has no power to do anything about compensation even though the Treasury's dead hands are all over it. - The Post Office will issue some PR guff about how sorry it is and how much it is doing. Someone will use the appalling phrase "at pace". - Most journalists will forget to ask why it is that Rodric Williams one of the shiftiest of the PO lawyers who gave evidence and who was heavily involved during the entire period when the problems were known about and covered up is now in charge of compensation at the Post Office. - The phrase "conflict of interest" will not be mentioned because no-one - other than me - seems to understand or recognise one, even when it is staring you in the face. - The government continues to think overturning convictions & giving out a few baubles is enough. - This is how all governments since at least Aberfan have operated. It is Potemkin justice.
Too cynical? Or just realistic? Let's see, shall we.
No, not cynical. After the same thing happens for the 37th time
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
SEND is Starmer's next bear trap. Individual provision is unaffordable, but as Nick Ferrari demonstrated yesterday taking away special needs provision from needy little children is the Welfare Bill on steroids all over again.
The last Government were splendid at spending money they didn't have to scupper the next Government. Genius.
And people said Rishi was rubbish at politics.
Cheap political points scoring aside, every Council, irrespective of the party leading the administration, where it has a statutory provide to provide SEN services, is struggling.
The rise in SEN referrals since Covid has been astronomical and exponential - there simply aren't the qualified SEN teachers to carry out the assessments, the accommodation deemed to be required isn't available and building it costs a lot of money and third, the home to school transport costs for special needs children is equally ruinous.
The psychological impact of the lockdowns and the disruptions to normal social, educational and cultural life wrought by the pandemic have affected significant numbers of both children and adults as the numbers seeking SEN referrals and the numbers economically active down to mental health issues demonstrate.
Unfortunately, attitudes to those with mental health issues, whether children or adult, among some in the wider community remain in the dim and distant past.
My daughter should be in an interesting cohort. Children born September 2021 to August 2022; the first entirely after Covid. Will the quantity of SEN drop when she gets to school (She has no issues so far as we're aware), or is there a ratchet effect in place now ?
That's an interesting and valid point and the short answer, again, is I don't Know.
What will be interesting in education over the next 5-10 years will be the impact of the big declines in birth rates. Will we see councils closing or amalgamating primary schools and later secondary schools as pupil numbers fall off and the secondary impacts of that throughout the education sector will be considerable.
It is a load of old bollocks. Wishy washy bad parenting and letting children do as they like , how come nobody used to have it. Good clip round the ear and discipline is what is needed, no wonder we are skint , every tom dick & harry has to have something wrong that needs mooney for them or spent on them.
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
Yep. Adult Social Care responsibility was dumped by the Tories onto local councils but central government declined to fund most of it. But it permitted councils to add 5% onto the council tax to pay for it - a glorious wheeze they thought to get Labour councils adding 5% so that they could call them wasteful.
A few years down the line and councils have had years of government funding cuts whilst costs of service provision skyrockets. Its no surprise that councils can no longer absorb this - the maths just don't work.
Farage proposed scrapping adult social care I assume? Its just "common sense" that mental health is all just scroungers and faked?
‘ Farage said: "If you've got two kids living next door to each other getting separate taxis that is crazy.
"To have crept to a position where school transport is costing taxpayers almost £100m per year is unacceptable."
He did say there would be exceptions for children with special educational needs.’
That is crazy. And if it is happening it's utter incompetence. My kids both had rural school transport. They got on a bus with a couple of dozen others from farms and hamlets.
Well I know from what my local councillor tells me this sort of thing does go on.
He was on the cabinet during the coalition in Durham.
One example being two children in the same home having to separate taxis to the same school. Can’t remember the reason.
A number of other countries use special school buses for this.
To the point, that in the US, “The Short Bus” is a derogatory term derived from such usage.
I think we’re starting to see polling numbers that will utterly break seat modelling. I’m going to be very nervous of any bets on seat numbers if they stick until polling day, especially noting the non-voters in the Reform samples.
I also think the right Tory leader change and the inevitable Reform scandal, could change a lot.
I think that’s right.
I do think, despite the fact they’re languishing in a terrible position in the polls, there are factors at play that could start to spur a modest Tory recovery. I don’t know if it’s quite enough to win an election (probably, at this stage, not) but potentially enough to avoid being relegated to minor party status.
There are I think enough voters who understand that there are tough decisions to be made who also realise that the Labour Party are increasingly unlikely to make them, and Reform’s promises are cakeist. The Tories are, despite their cataclysmic last spell in government, a party that can probably try and sell that angle. As I say, do I think it’s a GE-winning message? Probably not. But it might be enough to entice back some of the middle England vote.
A nice mathematically pleasing result could still happen
Ref 24 Con 24 Lab 24 LD 12 Green 6 Dried Fruit 6 SNP 3
ISTR a lovely opinion poll during Lab's nadir a few years back of Con 48, Lab 24, LD 12, UKIP or current equivalent 6, Green 3. I may be wrong.
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
SEND is Starmer's next bear trap. Individual provision is unaffordable, but as Nick Ferrari demonstrated yesterday taking away special needs provision from needy little children is the Welfare Bill on steroids all over again.
The last Government were splendid at spending money they didn't have to scupper the next Government. Genius.
And people said Rishi was rubbish at politics.
Cheap political points scoring aside, every Council, irrespective of the party leading the administration, where it has a statutory provide to provide SEN services, is struggling.
The rise in SEN referrals since Covid has been astronomical and exponential - there simply aren't the qualified SEN teachers to carry out the assessments, the accommodation deemed to be required isn't available and building it costs a lot of money and third, the home to school transport costs for special needs children is equally ruinous.
The psychological impact of the lockdowns and the disruptions to normal social, educational and cultural life wrought by the pandemic have affected significant numbers of both children and adults as the numbers seeking SEN referrals and the numbers economically active down to mental health issues demonstrate.
Unfortunately, attitudes to those with mental health issues, whether children or adult, among some in the wider community remain in the dim and distant past.
My daughter should be in an interesting cohort. Children born September 2021 to August 2022; the first entirely after Covid. Will the quantity of SEN drop when she gets to school (She has no issues so far as we're aware), or is there a ratchet effect in place now ?
That's an interesting and valid point and the short answer, again, is I don't Know.
What will be interesting in education over the next 5-10 years will be the impact of the big declines in birth rates. Will we see councils closing or amalgamating primary schools and later secondary schools as pupil numbers fall off and the secondary impacts of that throughout the education sector will be considerable.
It is a load of old bollocks. Wishy washy bad parenting and letting children do as they like , how come nobody used to have it. Good clip round the ear and discipline is what is needed, no wonder we are skint , every tom dick & harry has to have something wrong that needs mooney for them or spent on them.
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
Yep. Adult Social Care responsibility was dumped by the Tories onto local councils but central government declined to fund most of it. But it permitted councils to add 5% onto the council tax to pay for it - a glorious wheeze they thought to get Labour councils adding 5% so that they could call them wasteful.
A few years down the line and councils have had years of government funding cuts whilst costs of service provision skyrockets. Its no surprise that councils can no longer absorb this - the maths just don't work.
Farage proposed scrapping adult social care I assume? Its just "common sense" that mental health is all just scroungers and faked?
‘ Farage said: "If you've got two kids living next door to each other getting separate taxis that is crazy.
"To have crept to a position where school transport is costing taxpayers almost £100m per year is unacceptable."
He did say there would be exceptions for children with special educational needs.’
That is crazy. And if it is happening it's utter incompetence. My kids both had rural school transport. They got on a bus with a couple of dozen others from farms and hamlets.
Well I know from what my local councillor tells me this sort of thing does go on.
He was on the cabinet during the coalition in Durham.
One example being two children in the same home having to separate taxis to the same school. Can’t remember the reason.
Fighting between the children wouldn’t surprise me if SEN
Then they ought not to be living together. Sometimes the taxi drivers can see an easy mark.
I think we’re starting to see polling numbers that will utterly break seat modelling. I’m going to be very nervous of any bets on seat numbers if they stick until polling day, especially noting the non-voters in the Reform samples.
I also think the right Tory leader change and the inevitable Reform scandal, could change a lot.
Whilst sub samples are obviously not weighted, its worth keeping your eye on them to assist with rough seat ideas. For example, if Reform are surging in NE, NW, Midlands, Yorkshire etc and Tories are holding up in South, East, London but tanking up north it makes a massive difference to both seats and Labour's prospects
I agree. I think the total extinction of the Tories would rely on them losing the blue rinse brigade and the old money. I don’t think they will, so they are well placed to retain some sort of heartland.
Comments
But he does keep treading on his stumps.
Modern Istanbul seems to manage to be quite warlike without foreign mercenaries.
Bombshell report alleges El Salvador disclaimed responsibility for those U.S. sent to CECOT
https://www.lawdork.com/p/un-document-cecot-aea-birthright-law-firms?open=false#§the-alien-enemies-act-cases
..Documents the petitioners filed in the case allege that officials from El Salvador told the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, Working Group on Enforced or Involuntary Disappearances (WGEID) that the country’s “authorities have not arrested, detained, or transferred the persons referred to in the communications of the Working Group.” El Salvador, per the U.N. working group’s report attached to the filing, acknowledged that it had “facilitated the use of the Salvadoran prison infrastructure" by the U.S. — but also stated that, “[i]n this context, the jurisdiction and legal responsibility for these persons lie exclusively with the" U.S...
"Aaaaaaarrrrrgh!"
Before a more servile expression crossed his face. "Must be loyal to England... Must be loyal..."
Saving the steel industry latest
And *subsample klaxon for a good chuckle* the tories are on 4% with 35 to 54 year olds, half their kiddy vote
The fact the Tories are stuck in the mid to high teens with most polling despite this is very damning on their immediate prospects.
Also, how long can Labour's floor hold at 21% or so on the back of catastrophic approval?
Just learned that an old friend (44 years!) has died suddenly. In additon it turns out that the mother of his wife who we know quite well died 5 days previously. One condolence card or two? The former has a touch of the bogof about it.
A lot of Labour voters might not approve of the government, but still be willing to vote for them to try to stop Reform or the Tories.
Edit: This is also why the Tories are in so much danger. A lot of their vote was an anti-Labour vote, and if Farage's lot look like a better bet for voting against Labour, then it's so much harder for them to make a comeback.
He’s looking at reforming it
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6gx56je91o
‘ Farage said: "If you've got two kids living next door to each other getting separate taxis that is crazy.
"To have crept to a position where school transport is costing taxpayers almost £100m per year is unacceptable."
He did say there would be exceptions for children with special educational needs.’
The only exception would be if you had sent one regarding mum before the husband died.
Either way I think we all have sympathy for his wife her entire world has disappeared in a week
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgeqxgpdp7do
A council is facing an "imminent financial threat" because of rising demand for special educational needs and disability (SEND) services, its leader has warned.
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole (BCP) Council leader Millie Earl said the increasing cost was not fully funded by the government.
It all depends on which way the Sultanas swing.
I also think the right Tory leader change and the inevitable Reform scandal, could change a lot.
that’s been known about for the past 5 years minimum. Councils simply don’t have the money to pay for the increasing amount of social care (both adult and child) costs that has been lumbered on them
If Nigel was bright he would be keeping quiet on the other local council issues and continually asking why social care has been dumped on councils to pay for
What to do..🤔
Labour will have to emphasis that there is no more money sorry.
But we go back to the fact Labour didn’t tell voters the truth at the election or even last autumn so it’s hard now to say we really don’t have any money.
I think Starmer needs to get rid of Reeves so someone can have a fireside chat with the general public as to the actual issues and the fact money can’t be printed
https://freshwaterstrategy.com/insights-media/ and the leadership figures are reported on City AMs website
YouGov I've just seen reported by the usual sources, will be on their site today
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention on here shortly id expect
https://bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cren3l8nj8wo
However, I am supportive of paying what is needed. How you afford that is part of the questions and high earning doctors may need to pay more tax.
As for wanting pay to be back to 2008 levels I would love to be being paid what I was then, ideally I would love to return to my 1999 rates adjusted for inflation but it isn’t going to happen
Is it just me of does Dmitry Peskov look like he was the bass player in Kajagoogoo in a past career and now has the less embarrassing role of Kremlin Spokesman?
I do think, despite the fact they’re languishing in a terrible position in the polls, there are factors at play that could start to spur a modest Tory recovery. I don’t know if it’s quite enough to win an election (probably, at this stage, not) but potentially enough to avoid being relegated to minor party status.
There are I think enough voters who understand that there are tough decisions to be made who also realise that the Labour Party are increasingly unlikely to make them, and Reform’s promises are cakeist. The Tories are, despite their cataclysmic last spell in government, a party that can probably try and sell that angle. As I say, do I think it’s a GE-winning message? Probably not. But it might be enough to entice back some of the middle England vote.
Labour will cave quickly and the ten year plan will be dead in the water
Or they dig in and waiting lists will go stratospheric again
Ref 24
Con 24
Lab 24
LD 12
Green 6
Dried Fruit 6
SNP 3
I cannot be forcd to belong to a church or a club or a residents association - why should I be compelled to join something that gets in the way (for good or ill) between me and my employer?
And if it is happening it's utter incompetence.
My kids both had rural school transport.
They got on a bus with a couple of dozen others from farms and hamlets.
It's one of those things that seems so weird, you wonder how it could ever have been legal.
For example, if Reform are surging in NE, NW, Midlands, Yorkshire etc and Tories are holding up in South, East, London but tanking up north it makes a massive difference to both seats and Labour's prospects
Guido is a God and not at all unreliable.
OBR Report
Drily understated.
Impact on sub-postmasters and their families: It is “impossible to ascertain” how many people suffered, the report says. Many endured abuse in their local communities, considered or subjected themselves to self-harm, suffered psychological harm, lost their homes, suffered financial, physical and mental distress, and turned to alcoholism
Lives lost: Thirteen people were found to have taken their own lives, six former sub-postmasters and seven others, who were not sub-postmasters. The inquiry's chair Wyn Williams says he also "received evidence from at least 59 persons who contemplated suicide at various points in time and who attributed this to their experiences with Horizon and/or the Post Office"
The key numbers: Approximately 1,000 people were prosecuted, and only 50-60 were not convicted. Thousands were suspended – the considerably more than those who faced criminal proceedings – and many later had their contracts terminated
Delays to compensation: The delivery of redress to claimants under the three schemes has been “bedevilled with unjustifiable delays”, and while some are satisfied, there are many who are not
Redress: The government will devise a programme of redress to close family members of those most adversely affected. Additionally, the government, Post Office and Fujitsu will agree a programme of restorative justice
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cglzg8rnje7t
He was on the cabinet during the coalition in Durham.
One example being two children in the same home having to separate taxis to the same school. Can’t remember the reason.
This year they should, at least, try to get some reform as the Tories were doing.
@SpencerHakimian
I’ve spent the past few days in Paris.
I don’t think Americans realize the amount of irreparable cultural goodwill and soft power we have permanently lost.
I come to France multiple times per year.
This is the first time I have ever felt “disliked” simply for being American.
Tragic.
https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1942531138376937526
Reform's success has been by and large personality driven by one individual who has been around in UK politics for over 30 years on now what is his 3rd reincarnation as leader of an anti-establishment one issue party. Admittedly Farage has a bit more going for him this time around, his own week night political PR platform on a pro Reform 24/7 news channel that allows him to get a bit more publicity and make a bit more noise than normal. But are we really saying that one man who doesn't like the boring day to day grind of politics at Westminster when there is not a live feed camera about while leading yet again another incredible divisive and factional party of mavericks from across the political divide is going to finally manage to do what UKIP or the Brexit party under him both failed to do and keep the whole show on the road unscathed for another four years until the next GE?
The biggest irony is the fact that the Libdems achieved more MPs at Westminster making far less of an impression on the country before or after the GE while being led by a man that most voters would struggle to name. UK politics is in flux right now, and even more so because of how quickly this current Labour Government's unpopular leaderhsip and policy decisions have not only failed to engage the electorate but made them really angry. But I am not going to bet the farm on the outcome of the next GE on the basis of current weekly internet polling today.
Lets face it, the SNP's record in power in Scotland has been one long list of failures and scandals, most go largely under the radar due to the shocking lack of interest from the UK media. At the end of the day, its still the UK economy that will be the single biggest issue come the next GE, and especially after this Labour Government's term in office and I have not seen anything yet from Farage or Reform and their ragbag maverick group of 4/5 MPs that suggests they will be in a position to win the confidence of the UK electorate on this issue by the end of Trump's term in Office..
It’s not entirely implausible to imagine a result of say 160 LAB/160 CON/160 REF/100 LD or there abouts, give or take 20-30 seats.
A tiny minority from the most outlying areas come in taxis. But they are shared between at least three kids.
Only one I can think of comes individually in a taxi. But that is for everyone's safety, and is a quite exceptional case.
Can't see any reason, other than utter incompetence, why two kids would be allowed to live at the same address, but not take the same transport.
To the point, that in the US, “The Short Bus” is a derogatory term derived from such usage.
CON 48 52
LAB 24 24
LD. 16 12
OTH 12.12
Nice
Sometimes the taxi drivers can see an easy mark.