You will be aware of my stance that Starmer's problem is that he does not have an internal model of how the world works. Bastani repeats this point.
"...But that is entirely the problem for Starmer. In a world of shifting geopolitical realities, energy transition and demographic ageing you need an analytical lens – dare I say an ideology – to understand things. Until the Labour leadership grasp that insight, the government will remain rudderless. Don’t bet on that happening before the next general election though. It would require a capacity for self-criticism – and a renunciation of everything Starmer’s political career has been built upon..."
I think we’re starting to see polling numbers that will utterly break seat modelling. I’m going to be very nervous of any bets on seat numbers if they stick until polling day, especially noting the non-voters in the Reform samples.
I also think the right Tory leader change and the inevitable Reform scandal, could change a lot.
Whilst sub samples are obviously not weighted, its worth keeping your eye on them to assist with rough seat ideas. For example, if Reform are surging in NE, NW, Midlands, Yorkshire etc and Tories are holding up in South, East, London but tanking up north it makes a massive difference to both seats and Labour's prospects
At the moment, it’s entirely plausible that all of the parties end up fighting a war on several fronts in the GE (Labour vs Tories in midlands and south and vs Reform in the red wall, Tories vs pretty much everyone).
It’s not entirely implausible to imagine a result of say 160 LAB/160 CON/160 REF/100 LD or there abouts, give or take 20-30 seats.
A UK Grand Coalition is not impossible. An “odd couple Coalition” all about preserving the status quo but called a “National Government” by the parties using war like language.
I think we’re starting to see polling numbers that will utterly break seat modelling. I’m going to be very nervous of any bets on seat numbers if they stick until polling day, especially noting the non-voters in the Reform samples.
I also think the right Tory leader change and the inevitable Reform scandal, could change a lot.
Whilst sub samples are obviously not weighted, its worth keeping your eye on them to assist with rough seat ideas. For example, if Reform are surging in NE, NW, Midlands, Yorkshire etc and Tories are holding up in South, East, London but tanking up north it makes a massive difference to both seats and Labour's prospects
I agree. I think the total extinction of the Tories would rely on them losing the blue rinse brigade and the old money. I don’t think they will, so they are well placed to retain some sort of heartland.
Sub 50 seats is pretty unlikely, sub 100 relatively likely - id say maybe 50/50. Probably third place and if they are close enough to second place in seats no real crisis but a long road back. The closer to 50 seats/fourth the bigger the existential crisis looms
Regarding the other conversations on this thread about SEND, dyslexic lawyers and noncompetent pharmacists, I can only repeat my oft-repeated (ouch!) stance that these days we are too quick to pathologise normal human variation, and that thresholds are important in diagnoses.
And? We’ve discussed this numerous times before - if you want a wealth tax you can only attach it to residential property where tax is a mess and it needs to be fixed
And here's (checks notes) the Director of the FBI.
Benny Johnson (Feb 2025): "You say that the FBI has Epstein's list, they're sitting on it... Why is the FBI protecting the largest-scale pedorist [sic] in human history?"
And? We’ve discussed this numerous times before - if you want a wealth tax you can only attach it to residential property where tax is a mess and it needs to be fixed
Soak the rich, that’s what I say.
Provided we define “rich” as n + 1p, where n is my current wealth.
It’s nice to know destinations - like this, the famous Rila monastery in the foothills of the Pirin mountains - can still make my jaw drop when I step inside. Coz that just happened here 10 minutes ago
Photos don’t really capture it. Ravishingly beautiful. 1200 years old. Cradle of Bulgarian orthodox Christianity. Nestled in these gorgeous forested slopes. You can hear swifts and eagles overhead
Fun fact about the BMA's claim doctor's pay has fallen by 20% since 2008. Via the internet, so unverified.
Apparently they are taking into account the increased tax burden we have all had since 2008 and acting as if it's only on doctors. I.e it's take-home pay they're using.
I think we’re starting to see polling numbers that will utterly break seat modelling. I’m going to be very nervous of any bets on seat numbers if they stick until polling day, especially noting the non-voters in the Reform samples.
I also think the right Tory leader change and the inevitable Reform scandal, could change a lot.
I think that’s right.
I do think, despite the fact they’re languishing in a terrible position in the polls, there are factors at play that could start to spur a modest Tory recovery. I don’t know if it’s quite enough to win an election (probably, at this stage, not) but potentially enough to avoid being relegated to minor party status.
There are I think enough voters who understand that there are tough decisions to be made who also realise that the Labour Party are increasingly unlikely to make them, and Reform’s promises are cakeist. The Tories are, despite their cataclysmic last spell in government, a party that can probably try and sell that angle. As I say, do I think it’s a GE-winning message? Probably not. But it might be enough to entice back some of the middle England vote.
Reform doing well but not too well and the Tories recovering ground from non-cakeist voters, but not too much, is exactly the formula required for Labour to get most seats on 28% of the vote. Whereas if one or other excels, Labour get massacred. Remember the 1980s and the SDP/LDs.
The numerical case for a Tory/Reform pact is massive.
I think we’re starting to see polling numbers that will utterly break seat modelling. I’m going to be very nervous of any bets on seat numbers if they stick until polling day, especially noting the non-voters in the Reform samples.
I also think the right Tory leader change and the inevitable Reform scandal, could change a lot.
I think that’s right.
I do think, despite the fact they’re languishing in a terrible position in the polls, there are factors at play that could start to spur a modest Tory recovery. I don’t know if it’s quite enough to win an election (probably, at this stage, not) but potentially enough to avoid being relegated to minor party status.
There are I think enough voters who understand that there are tough decisions to be made who also realise that the Labour Party are increasingly unlikely to make them, and Reform’s promises are cakeist. The Tories are, despite their cataclysmic last spell in government, a party that can probably try and sell that angle. As I say, do I think it’s a GE-winning message? Probably not. But it might be enough to entice back some of the middle England vote.
Reform doing well but not too well and the Tories recovering ground from non-cakeist voters, but not too much, is exactly the formula required for Labour to get most seats on 28% of the vote. Whereas if one or other excels, Labour get massacred. Remember the 1980s and the SDP/LDs.
The numerical case for a Tory/Reform pact is massive.
The political case for a Tory/Reform pact is disastrous.
And here's (checks notes) the Director of the FBI.
Benny Johnson (Feb 2025): "You say that the FBI has Epstein's list, they're sitting on it... Why is the FBI protecting the largest-scale pedorist [sic] in human history?"
I know this is just madness but just imagine, if there had ever been a list of very wealthy people who had been very naughty with Epstein and friends and someone compiled a Venn diagram of the people on that list and people who had bought Trump Coin and people who made campaign contributions and pledged to the Trump Library. I’m guessing the whole lot will be in the overlapping region.
Anyway, luckily there was no list and none of the above could possibly have happened.
On other matters do we reckon Ghislaine is going to be pardoned or suicided soon?
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
SEND is Starmer's next bear trap. Individual provision is unaffordable, but as Nick Ferrari demonstrated yesterday taking away special needs provision from needy little children is the Welfare Bill on steroids all over again.
The last Government were splendid at spending money they didn't have to scupper the next Government. Genius.
And people said Rishi was rubbish at politics.
Cheap political points scoring aside, every Council, irrespective of the party leading the administration, where it has a statutory provide to provide SEN services, is struggling.
The rise in SEN referrals since Covid has been astronomical and exponential - there simply aren't the qualified SEN teachers to carry out the assessments, the accommodation deemed to be required isn't available and building it costs a lot of money and third, the home to school transport costs for special needs children is equally ruinous.
The psychological impact of the lockdowns and the disruptions to normal social, educational and cultural life wrought by the pandemic have affected significant numbers of both children and adults as the numbers seeking SEN referrals and the numbers economically active down to mental health issues demonstrate.
Unfortunately, attitudes to those with mental health issues, whether children or adult, among some in the wider community remain in the dim and distant past.
My daughter should be in an interesting cohort. Children born September 2021 to August 2022; the first entirely after Covid. Will the quantity of SEN drop when she gets to school (She has no issues so far as we're aware), or is there a ratchet effect in place now ?
That's an interesting and valid point and the short answer, again, is I don't Know.
What will be interesting in education over the next 5-10 years will be the impact of the big declines in birth rates. Will we see councils closing or amalgamating primary schools and later secondary schools as pupil numbers fall off and the secondary impacts of that throughout the education sector will be considerable.
It is a load of old bollocks. Wishy washy bad parenting and letting children do as they like , how come nobody used to have it. Good clip round the ear and discipline is what is needed, no wonder we are skint , every tom dick & harry has to have something wrong that needs mooney for them or spent on them.
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
Yep. Adult Social Care responsibility was dumped by the Tories onto local councils but central government declined to fund most of it. But it permitted councils to add 5% onto the council tax to pay for it - a glorious wheeze they thought to get Labour councils adding 5% so that they could call them wasteful.
A few years down the line and councils have had years of government funding cuts whilst costs of service provision skyrockets. Its no surprise that councils can no longer absorb this - the maths just don't work.
Farage proposed scrapping adult social care I assume? Its just "common sense" that mental health is all just scroungers and faked?
‘ Farage said: "If you've got two kids living next door to each other getting separate taxis that is crazy.
"To have crept to a position where school transport is costing taxpayers almost £100m per year is unacceptable."
He did say there would be exceptions for children with special educational needs.’
That is crazy. And if it is happening it's utter incompetence. My kids both had rural school transport. They got on a bus with a couple of dozen others from farms and hamlets.
Well I know from what my local councillor tells me this sort of thing does go on.
He was on the cabinet during the coalition in Durham.
One example being two children in the same home having to separate taxis to the same school. Can’t remember the reason.
Fighting between the children wouldn’t surprise me if SEN
Then they ought not to be living together. Sometimes the taxi drivers can see an easy mark.
Siblings who are both SEN can often have a… tumultuous relationship.
And? We’ve discussed this numerous times before - if you want a wealth tax you can only attach it to residential property where tax is a mess and it needs to be fixed
Soak the rich, that’s what I say.
Provided we define “rich” as n + 1p, where n is my current wealth.
I really should ask my billionaire friends (now in Monaco) if the landlord tabs are still open in the London restaurants they rent out. It did make evenings out rather cheap
And here's (checks notes) the Director of the FBI.
Benny Johnson (Feb 2025): "You say that the FBI has Epstein's list, they're sitting on it... Why is the FBI protecting the largest-scale pedorist [sic] in human history?"
So they must be MAGA people, or they would release it for the shitz n gigglez.
Or one MAGA person in particular.
Assuming JD Vance isn't on the list, the timing of the release will be of maximum advantage to him. Trump languishing in the MAGA glory of having got the Big Beautiful Bill into law, that time is not now.
When the bodies of the drowned little girls in Texas start getting found, maybe.
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
SEND is Starmer's next bear trap. Individual provision is unaffordable, but as Nick Ferrari demonstrated yesterday taking away special needs provision from needy little children is the Welfare Bill on steroids all over again.
The last Government were splendid at spending money they didn't have to scupper the next Government. Genius.
And people said Rishi was rubbish at politics.
Cheap political points scoring aside, every Council, irrespective of the party leading the administration, where it has a statutory provide to provide SEN services, is struggling.
The rise in SEN referrals since Covid has been astronomical and exponential - there simply aren't the qualified SEN teachers to carry out the assessments, the accommodation deemed to be required isn't available and building it costs a lot of money and third, the home to school transport costs for special needs children is equally ruinous.
The psychological impact of the lockdowns and the disruptions to normal social, educational and cultural life wrought by the pandemic have affected significant numbers of both children and adults as the numbers seeking SEN referrals and the numbers economically active down to mental health issues demonstrate.
Unfortunately, attitudes to those with mental health issues, whether children or adult, among some in the wider community remain in the dim and distant past.
My daughter should be in an interesting cohort. Children born September 2021 to August 2022; the first entirely after Covid. Will the quantity of SEN drop when she gets to school (She has no issues so far as we're aware), or is there a ratchet effect in place now ?
That's an interesting and valid point and the short answer, again, is I don't Know.
What will be interesting in education over the next 5-10 years will be the impact of the big declines in birth rates. Will we see councils closing or amalgamating primary schools and later secondary schools as pupil numbers fall off and the secondary impacts of that throughout the education sector will be considerable.
It is a load of old bollocks. Wishy washy bad parenting and letting children do as they like , how come nobody used to have it. Good clip round the ear and discipline is what is needed, no wonder we are skint , every tom dick & harry has to have something wrong that needs mooney for them or spent on them.
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
Yep. Adult Social Care responsibility was dumped by the Tories onto local councils but central government declined to fund most of it. But it permitted councils to add 5% onto the council tax to pay for it - a glorious wheeze they thought to get Labour councils adding 5% so that they could call them wasteful.
A few years down the line and councils have had years of government funding cuts whilst costs of service provision skyrockets. Its no surprise that councils can no longer absorb this - the maths just don't work.
Farage proposed scrapping adult social care I assume? Its just "common sense" that mental health is all just scroungers and faked?
‘ Farage said: "If you've got two kids living next door to each other getting separate taxis that is crazy.
"To have crept to a position where school transport is costing taxpayers almost £100m per year is unacceptable."
He did say there would be exceptions for children with special educational needs.’
That is crazy. And if it is happening it's utter incompetence. My kids both had rural school transport. They got on a bus with a couple of dozen others from farms and hamlets.
Well I know from what my local councillor tells me this sort of thing does go on.
He was on the cabinet during the coalition in Durham.
One example being two children in the same home having to separate taxis to the same school. Can’t remember the reason.
Fighting between the children wouldn’t surprise me if SEN
Then they ought not to be living together. Sometimes the taxi drivers can see an easy mark.
Siblings who are both SEN can often have a… tumultuous relationship.
Which schools can manage, parents can manage but is well above the pay grade of a taxi driver
Fun fact about the BMA's claim doctor's pay has fallen by 20% since 2008. Via the internet, so unverified.
Apparently they are taking into account the increased tax burden we have all had since 2008 and acting as if it's only on doctors. I.e it's take-home pay they're using.
There's no doubt gross pay was significantly cut in real terms from 2010 onwards, though it's tricky to work out by precisely how much. Consultants in particular.
And here's (checks notes) the Director of the FBI.
Benny Johnson (Feb 2025): "You say that the FBI has Epstein's list, they're sitting on it... Why is the FBI protecting the largest-scale pedorist [sic] in human history?"
I know this is just madness but just imagine, if there had ever been a list of very wealthy people who had been very naughty with Epstein and friends and someone compiled a Venn diagram of the people on that list and people who had bought Trump Coin and people who made campaign contributions and pledged to the Trump Library. I’m guessing the whole lot will be in the overlapping region.
Anyway, luckily there was no list and none of the above could possibly have happened.
On other matters do we reckon Ghislaine is going to be pardoned or suicided soon?
And here's (checks notes) the Director of the FBI.
Benny Johnson (Feb 2025): "You say that the FBI has Epstein's list, they're sitting on it... Why is the FBI protecting the largest-scale pedorist [sic] in human history?"
And here's (checks notes) the Director of the FBI.
Benny Johnson (Feb 2025): "You say that the FBI has Epstein's list, they're sitting on it... Why is the FBI protecting the largest-scale pedorist [sic] in human history?"
So they must be MAGA people, or they would release it for the shitz n gigglez.
Or one MAGA person in particular.
Assuming JD Vance isn't on the list, the timing of the release will be of maximum advantage to him. Trump languishing in the MAGA glory of having got the Big Beautiful Bill into law, that time is not now.
When the bodies of the drowned little girls in Texas start getting found, maybe.
According to TwiX the issue is not the list. Biden already released the list and Trump is on it
The problem is the footage. Thousands of hours recorded at Epstein's place. That's what they can't scrub.
I think we’re starting to see polling numbers that will utterly break seat modelling. I’m going to be very nervous of any bets on seat numbers if they stick until polling day, especially noting the non-voters in the Reform samples.
I also think the right Tory leader change and the inevitable Reform scandal, could change a lot.
I think that’s right.
I do think, despite the fact they’re languishing in a terrible position in the polls, there are factors at play that could start to spur a modest Tory recovery. I don’t know if it’s quite enough to win an election (probably, at this stage, not) but potentially enough to avoid being relegated to minor party status.
There are I think enough voters who understand that there are tough decisions to be made who also realise that the Labour Party are increasingly unlikely to make them, and Reform’s promises are cakeist. The Tories are, despite their cataclysmic last spell in government, a party that can probably try and sell that angle. As I say, do I think it’s a GE-winning message? Probably not. But it might be enough to entice back some of the middle England vote.
Reform doing well but not too well and the Tories recovering ground from non-cakeist voters, but not too much, is exactly the formula required for Labour to get most seats on 28% of the vote. Whereas if one or other excels, Labour get massacred. Remember the 1980s and the SDP/LDs.
The numerical case for a Tory/Reform pact is massive.
Only if you assume that the remaining Tories prefer a Reform Government to a (Starmer style) minority Labour one.
Is it me or is every quick fix solution from 2008 onwards coming home to roost at the same time
Yes. Time for a grown up PM, quite prepared to risk being a one term wonder, to go on all media every week for 10 minutes to tell the truth and explain the problems and the plan. When it has a plan. At the moment not even Labour MPs appear to comprehend anything at all, let alone the general public.
And here's (checks notes) the Director of the FBI.
Benny Johnson (Feb 2025): "You say that the FBI has Epstein's list, they're sitting on it... Why is the FBI protecting the largest-scale pedorist [sic] in human history?"
So they must be MAGA people, or they would release it for the shitz n gigglez.
Or one MAGA person in particular.
Assuming JD Vance isn't on the list, the timing of the release will be of maximum advantage to him. Trump languishing in the MAGA glory of having got the Big Beautiful Bill into law, that time is not now.
When the bodies of the drowned little girls in Texas start getting found, maybe.
According to TwiX the issue is not the list. Biden already released the list and Trump is on it
The problem is the footage. Thousands of hours recorded at Epstein's place. That's what they can't scrub.
I’m surprised Elon’s little helpers didn’t ensure they got copies for him when they were embedded everywhere, just in case.
And here's (checks notes) the Director of the FBI.
Benny Johnson (Feb 2025): "You say that the FBI has Epstein's list, they're sitting on it... Why is the FBI protecting the largest-scale pedorist [sic] in human history?"
So they must be MAGA people, or they would release it for the shitz n gigglez.
Or one MAGA person in particular.
Assuming JD Vance isn't on the list, the timing of the release will be of maximum advantage to him. Trump languishing in the MAGA glory of having got the Big Beautiful Bill into law, that time is not now.
When the bodies of the drowned little girls in Texas start getting found, maybe.
I watch all the very partisan Dem YouTubers like Beasley and Pakman. Bias warning but they say MAGA are bewildered as MAGA believe that Kamala still has her finger on the trigger and won't allow Trump to release the list because it is full of Democrats.
Is it me or is every quick fix solution from 2008 onwards coming home to roost at the same time
Yes. Time for a grown up PM, quite prepared to risk being a one term wonder, to go on all media every week for 10 minutes to tell the truth and explain the problems and the plan. When it has a plan. At the moment not even Labour MPs appear to comprehend anything at all, let alone the general public.
It’s simpler than that. Many Labour MPs have one (or a small number of issues) they are especially attached to. What they want is more money for them. Cutting (or even reducing the rate of increase of) spending is simply beyond their contemplation.
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
SEND is Starmer's next bear trap. Individual provision is unaffordable, but as Nick Ferrari demonstrated yesterday taking away special needs provision from needy little children is the Welfare Bill on steroids all over again.
The last Government were splendid at spending money they didn't have to scupper the next Government. Genius.
And people said Rishi was rubbish at politics.
Cheap political points scoring aside, every Council, irrespective of the party leading the administration, where it has a statutory provide to provide SEN services, is struggling.
The rise in SEN referrals since Covid has been astronomical and exponential - there simply aren't the qualified SEN teachers to carry out the assessments, the accommodation deemed to be required isn't available and building it costs a lot of money and third, the home to school transport costs for special needs children is equally ruinous.
The psychological impact of the lockdowns and the disruptions to normal social, educational and cultural life wrought by the pandemic have affected significant numbers of both children and adults as the numbers seeking SEN referrals and the numbers economically active down to mental health issues demonstrate.
Unfortunately, attitudes to those with mental health issues, whether children or adult, among some in the wider community remain in the dim and distant past.
My daughter should be in an interesting cohort. Children born September 2021 to August 2022; the first entirely after Covid. Will the quantity of SEN drop when she gets to school (She has no issues so far as we're aware), or is there a ratchet effect in place now ?
That's an interesting and valid point and the short answer, again, is I don't Know.
What will be interesting in education over the next 5-10 years will be the impact of the big declines in birth rates. Will we see councils closing or amalgamating primary schools and later secondary schools as pupil numbers fall off and the secondary impacts of that throughout the education sector will be considerable.
It is a load of old bollocks. Wishy washy bad parenting and letting children do as they like , how come nobody used to have it. Good clip round the ear and discipline is what is needed, no wonder we are skint , every tom dick & harry has to have something wrong that needs mooney for them or spent on them.
Farage is absolutely right to call for this to be reformed. The govts plan is woefully inadequate and this is yet another shit sandwich bequeathed by the useless prior Tory regime.
Yep. Adult Social Care responsibility was dumped by the Tories onto local councils but central government declined to fund most of it. But it permitted councils to add 5% onto the council tax to pay for it - a glorious wheeze they thought to get Labour councils adding 5% so that they could call them wasteful.
A few years down the line and councils have had years of government funding cuts whilst costs of service provision skyrockets. Its no surprise that councils can no longer absorb this - the maths just don't work.
Farage proposed scrapping adult social care I assume? Its just "common sense" that mental health is all just scroungers and faked?
‘ Farage said: "If you've got two kids living next door to each other getting separate taxis that is crazy.
"To have crept to a position where school transport is costing taxpayers almost £100m per year is unacceptable."
He did say there would be exceptions for children with special educational needs.’
That is crazy. And if it is happening it's utter incompetence. My kids both had rural school transport. They got on a bus with a couple of dozen others from farms and hamlets.
Well I know from what my local councillor tells me this sort of thing does go on.
He was on the cabinet during the coalition in Durham.
One example being two children in the same home having to separate taxis to the same school. Can’t remember the reason.
Fighting between the children wouldn’t surprise me if SEN
Then they ought not to be living together. Sometimes the taxi drivers can see an easy mark.
Siblings who are both SEN can often have a… tumultuous relationship.
Which schools can manage, parents can manage but is well above the pay grade of a taxi driver
You're almost correct. The truth is no one can manage it. Otherwise it would be solved. But taxi companies and drivers have alternatives. They are the one of the four (including Councils), who aren't obliged to by law
As long as the non-union members are happy with a pay freeze when the union members get the pay rise negotiated by their union, then no need for a closed shop.
Otherwise we have the Free Rider Problem.
Ah, so you don't believe in equal pay for equal work. Cool.
You think you get that in non-unionised workplaces, where nobody knows what their colleagues get paid?
Then somebody discovers that the newby is on £10k more than them and all hell breaks loose.
The evils of the closed shop are being forgotten; or excused. It is a club; if your face did not fit, or you did not pay the dues to the 'correct' hand, then you could not join. Unite is not the first union to show itself to be utterly corrupt.
Which is a shame, as unions can do a heck of a lot of good.
75% of the union at our place's efforts appear to be in discussing gender and/or sexuality.
Are they affiliated to the Scottish Green Party?
The FBU ( I'm a retired member) posted more about Gaza and the Trans court ruling ( they don’t agree with it and don't recognise it) on their FB page than they did about the crap payrise settlement they put to the working members.
"Don't recognise it" = we will ignore the law.
A curious position for a union to take. Imagine if employers took the same approach to their various legal obligations on health and safety, the minimum wage etc.,.
It is precisely this attitude which led the Post Office to ignore its legal obligations on investigations and criminal prosecutions and harm people it did not value. Given the reports there have been on sexist behaviour within fire brigades, you'd have thought the union would have some regard for its women members.
Point of etiquette. Just learned that an old friend (44 years!) has died suddenly. In additon it turns out that the mother of his wife who we know quite well died 5 days previously. One condolence card or two? The former has a touch of the bogof about it.
So wifey has lost mum and husband in a week? Sod the cards, get on the phone and offer condolences, practical help or just someone to talk to. Same the next day and day after.
Dan Wooton also notimg McMurdock has been nobbled by Nigel (as well as his own actions possibly)
Given Nigel's track record with UKIP, and current performance with RefUK, the idea that he can gather together 326+ MPs to run a government is for the birds, isn't it?
And being PM at the head of a coalition government is even more absurd.
Got to be some chance that Anderson and Pochin will jump before Nigel pushes them at some point this parliament. They really should not have begged Zia Yusuf to stay. Nige and Poodle Tice to be last men standing
No, this is McMurdock telling Reform to go F themselves. He had already suspended himself.
Is it ?
What does this actually mean other than "I've talked to a lawyer and am saying nothing" ? .. I have now had a chance to take specialist legal advice from an expert in the relevant field. In light of that advice, which is privileged and which I choose to keep private at this time..
Dan Wooton also notimg McMurdock has been nobbled by Nigel (as well as his own actions possibly)
Given Nigel's track record with UKIP, and current performance with RefUK, the idea that he can gather together 326+ MPs to run a government is for the birds, isn't it?
And being PM at the head of a coalition government is even more absurd.
Emporers New Party vibes - the King is naked, and deeply unpleasant to work for and that's becoming increasingly exposed and obvious
No, this is McMurdock telling Reform to go F themselves. He had already suspended himself.
Is it ?
What does this actually mean other than "I've talked to a lawyer and am saying nothing" ? .. I have now had a chance to take specialist legal advice from an expert in the relevant field. In light of that advice, which is privileged and which I choose to keep private at this time..
He has left the Reform Party. That's what this statement is, him leaving Reform to sit as an independent. He was already suspended (by himself) so the statements only new information is 'I quit Reform'
Dan Wooton also notimg McMurdock has been nobbled by Nigel (as well as his own actions possibly)
Given Nigel's track record with UKIP, and current performance with RefUK, the idea that he can gather together 326+ MPs to run a government is for the birds, isn't it?
And being PM at the head of a coalition government is even more absurd.
Emporers New Party vibes - the King is naked, and deeply unpleasant to work for and that's becoming increasingly exposed and obvious
In a way, it's what we saw with Boris. Nigel's superficial appeal is understandable (bows down to nobody, says what he thinks). You have to get pretty close up to be let down by him.
But, as with Boris, that process only happens one person at a time and plenty never get close enough to be properly betrayed.
And the bad news for old party optimists is that people let down by one charlatan are likely to move on to another one.
Dan Wooton also notimg McMurdock has been nobbled by Nigel (as well as his own actions possibly)
Given Nigel's track record with UKIP, and current performance with RefUK, the idea that he can gather together 326+ MPs to run a government is for the birds, isn't it?
And being PM at the head of a coalition government is even more absurd.
Emporers New Party vibes - the King is naked, and deeply unpleasant to work for and that's becoming increasingly exposed and obvious
In a way, it's what we saw with Boris. Nigel's superficial appeal is understandable (bows down to nobody, says what he thinks). You have to get pretty close up to be let down by him.
But, as with Boris, that process only happens one person at a time and plenty never get close enough to be properly betrayed.
And the bad news for old party optimists is that people let down by one charlatan are likely to move on to another one.
For all the talk of the possibility of Suella defecting i cannot see them coexisting for more than a nanosecond Anderson will blow up at some point, far too opinionated and happy to jump ship
Point of etiquette. Just learned that an old friend (44 years!) has died suddenly. In additon it turns out that the mother of his wife who we know quite well died 5 days previously. One condolence card or two? The former has a touch of the bogof about it.
So wifey has lost mum and husband in a week? Sod the cards, get yoon the phone and offer condolences, practical help or just someone to talk to. Same the next day and day after.
Already offered help by message & email. What complicates matters is a froideur for reasons lost in time between my partner and the wife which meant I haven’t actually seen my pal Donald for several years, it was a mutual friend that broke the news. Thought that’d I’d bump in to him sooner or later, we’d go for a pint and everything would be fine, but not to be.
No, this is McMurdock telling Reform to go F themselves. He had already suspended himself.
Is it ?
What does this actually mean other than "I've talked to a lawyer and am saying nothing" ? .. I have now had a chance to take specialist legal advice from an expert in the relevant field. In light of that advice, which is privileged and which I choose to keep private at this time..
He has left the Reform Party. That's what this statement is, him leaving Reform to sit as an independent. He was already suspended (by himself) so the statements only new information is 'I quit Reform'
No, this is McMurdock telling Reform to go F themselves. He had already suspended himself.
Is it ?
What does this actually mean other than "I've talked to a lawyer and am saying nothing" ? .. I have now had a chance to take specialist legal advice from an expert in the relevant field. In light of that advice, which is privileged and which I choose to keep private at this time..
He has left the Reform Party. That's what this statement is, him leaving Reform to sit as an independent. He was already suspended (by himself) so the statements only new information is 'I quit Reform'
So what's the cloud of bull about, then ?
Who knows? Hes taken legal advice and has quit the Reform party to sit an an independent. There's no purpose to him quitting Reform if there isnt significant bad blood there. As for the allegations, he was already defending himself with the whip suspended, quitting the party in advance of any investigation would be totally superfluous
Dan Wooton also notimg McMurdock has been nobbled by Nigel (as well as his own actions possibly)
Given Nigel's track record with UKIP, and current performance with RefUK, the idea that he can gather together 326+ MPs to run a government is for the birds, isn't it?
And being PM at the head of a coalition government is even more absurd.
Once those MPs are elected he only needs to convince them to vote for a budget and a King's Speech and he can keep going. Lots of leaders in other countries have kept fractious coalitions with independent support going by offering sufficient inducements in budgets and legislation.
It will be chaotic, ugly and do immense damage, but I reckon Nigel could keep the bandwagon rolling for a full term.
"Having consulted a lawyer I am leaving the party permanently"
His membership of a political party will make zero difference to any defence he is offering up to the allegations. I don't believe there is a police investigation into the matter nor indeed any referral to the Standards Commissioner unless I missed it.
Point of etiquette. Just learned that an old friend (44 years!) has died suddenly. In additon it turns out that the mother of his wife who we know quite well died 5 days previously. One condolence card or two? The former has a touch of the bogof about it.
So wifey has lost mum and husband in a week? Sod the cards, get yoon the phone and offer condolences, practical help or just someone to talk to. Same the next day and day after.
Already offered help by message & email. What complicates matters is a froideur for reasons lost in time between my partner and the wife which meant I haven’t actually seen my pal Donald for several years, it was a mutual friend that broke the news. Thought that’d I’d bump in to him sooner or later, we’d go for a pint and everything would be fine, but not to be.
That's sad. But entirely understandable. An object lesson for us all to mend bridges before it's too late.
Widespread support for the triple lock on the BBC news article. Lots of entitlement, lots of talk about it being too low.
This country is nearly ungovernable.
Last year I was in the bar of the Queen’s Hotel in Leeds I saw older people bemoaning about how the cutting the WFA meant they couldn’t go on holiday to Spain this year.
Dan Wooton also notimg McMurdock has been nobbled by Nigel (as well as his own actions possibly)
Given Nigel's track record with UKIP, and current performance with RefUK, the idea that he can gather together 326+ MPs to run a government is for the birds, isn't it?
And being PM at the head of a coalition government is even more absurd.
Once those MPs are elected he only needs to convince them to vote for a budget and a King's Speech and he can keep going. Lots of leaders in other countries have kept fractious coalitions with independent support going by offering sufficient inducements in budgets and legislation.
It will be chaotic, ugly and do immense damage, but I reckon Nigel could keep the bandwagon rolling for a full term.
Lots of Reform's new MPs will be former Tories. It'll be interesting to see how Nigel keeps them on board for what will have to be quite a socialist programme. I'm not convinced that Nigel has the cult-like status Donald has, so maybe the legacy of Thatcher won't be as easy to destroy over here as that of Reagan was in the US. But we shall see.
Fun fact about the BMA's claim doctor's pay has fallen by 20% since 2008. Via the internet, so unverified.
Apparently they are taking into account the increased tax burden we have all had since 2008 and acting as if it's only on doctors. I.e it's take-home pay they're using.
Going back to my roots, are they reading their own handwriting?
Dan Wooton also notimg McMurdock has been nobbled by Nigel (as well as his own actions possibly)
Given Nigel's track record with UKIP, and current performance with RefUK, the idea that he can gather together 326+ MPs to run a government is for the birds, isn't it?
And being PM at the head of a coalition government is even more absurd.
Once those MPs are elected he only needs to convince them to vote for a budget and a King's Speech and he can keep going. Lots of leaders in other countries have kept fractious coalitions with independent support going by offering sufficient inducements in budgets and legislation.
It will be chaotic, ugly and do immense damage, but I reckon Nigel could keep the bandwagon rolling for a full term.
Lots of Reforms new MPs will be former Tories. It'll be interesting to see how Nigel keeps them on board for what will have to be quite a socialist programme. I'm not convinced that Nigel has the cult-like status Donald has, so maybe the legacy of Thatcher won't be as easy to destroy over here as that of Reagan was in the US. But we shall see.
The bottom line is that we don't currently have anyone on the British scene with the combination of conviction and charisma that Trump brings to politics. Farage is liable to be captured by the blob the moment things get difficult.
Widespread support for the triple lock on the BBC news article. Lots of entitlement, lots of talk about it being too low.
This country is nearly ungovernable.
Last year I was in the bar of the Queen’s Hotel in Leeds I saw older people bemoaning about how the cutting the WFA meant they couldn’t go on holiday to Spain this year.
£300 doesn’t buy much of a holiday in Spain even in the middle of winter
Dan Wooton also notimg McMurdock has been nobbled by Nigel (as well as his own actions possibly)
Given Nigel's track record with UKIP, and current performance with RefUK, the idea that he can gather together 326+ MPs to run a government is for the birds, isn't it?
And being PM at the head of a coalition government is even more absurd.
Once those MPs are elected he only needs to convince them to vote for a budget and a King's Speech and he can keep going. Lots of leaders in other countries have kept fractious coalitions with independent support going by offering sufficient inducements in budgets and legislation.
It will be chaotic, ugly and do immense damage, but I reckon Nigel could keep the bandwagon rolling for a full term.
Lots of Reforms new MPs will be former Tories. It'll be interesting to see how Nigel keeps them on board for what will have to be quite a socialist programme. I'm not convinced that Nigel has the cult-like status Donald has, so maybe the legacy of Thatcher won't be as easy to destroy over here as that of Reagan was in the US. But we shall see.
The bottom line is that we don't currently have anyone on the British scene with the combination of conviction and charisma that Trump brings to politics. Farage is liable to be captured by the blob the moment things get difficult.
The convictions Trump has aren't the ones you normally look for in a politician.
Been out for my lunch in Manchester City centre and I’ve SWP type complaining about the rich whilst wearing Balmain trainers.
I wear Skechers. Are they better than them ?
The cheapest Balmain trainers are around £350 quid and the most expensive ones north of £1,000.
You talk like Marlene Dietrich And you dance like Zizi Jeanmaire Your clothes are all made by Balmain And there's diamonds and pearls in your hair, yes there are
Widespread support for the triple lock on the BBC news article. Lots of entitlement, lots of talk about it being too low.
This country is nearly ungovernable.
Last year I was in the bar of the Queen’s Hotel in Leeds I saw older people bemoaning about how the cutting the WFA meant they couldn’t go on holiday to Spain this year.
£300 doesn’t buy much of a holiday in Spain even in the middle of winter
Or a pair of naff designer trainers by the sounds of it
"Underlying public debt is now at its highest level since the early 1960s and is projected to rise further over the medium term. Arresting this increase has become considerably more challenging as economic growth has slowed and interest rates risen. Despite the tax-to-GDP ratio rising to the highest level in the period since 1950, borrowing is still 3 per cent of GDP above the level that would be needed to durably stabilise debt. And the Government has left itself very small margins against its objectives of restoring the current budget to balance and getting net financial liabilities to fall by the end of the decade. Despite this, public expectations of what government can and should do in response to emerging threats and future emergencies seem to be rising."
GDP is roughly £2.7trn so 1% is roughly £27bn and 3% £81bn.
So, our Chancellor claimed we had a £22bn black hole. That was a lie. It was much, much worse than that. She told us that her last budget reset the economy on a sustainable path for the Parliament. Another lie. She told us she would not need to increase taxes again. Another lie. She blew the £22bn raised by NI on wage increases for the public sector meaning that there was no improvement in the underlying situation (since those wage increases will continue to use the additional tax going forward).
How much longer are our political classes going to keep pretending?
Dan Wooton also notimg McMurdock has been nobbled by Nigel (as well as his own actions possibly)
Given Nigel's track record with UKIP, and current performance with RefUK, the idea that he can gather together 326+ MPs to run a government is for the birds, isn't it?
And being PM at the head of a coalition government is even more absurd.
Once those MPs are elected he only needs to convince them to vote for a budget and a King's Speech and he can keep going. Lots of leaders in other countries have kept fractious coalitions with independent support going by offering sufficient inducements in budgets and legislation.
It will be chaotic, ugly and do immense damage, but I reckon Nigel could keep the bandwagon rolling for a full term.
Lots of Reforms new MPs will be former Tories. It'll be interesting to see how Nigel keeps them on board for what will have to be quite a socialist programme. I'm not convinced that Nigel has the cult-like status Donald has, so maybe the legacy of Thatcher won't be as easy to destroy over here as that of Reagan was in the US. But we shall see.
The bottom line is that we don't currently have anyone on the British scene with the combination of conviction and charisma that Trump brings to politics. Farage is liable to be captured by the blob the moment things get difficult.
Trump's masterstroke was to convince people like Elon that they shared convictions when in fact their convictions were diametrically opposed. Nigel is in a slightly different situation in that the British Right made him and can also destroy him. I think he has that to fear more than the Blob.
"Underlying public debt is now at its highest level since the early 1960s and is projected to rise further over the medium term. Arresting this increase has become considerably more challenging as economic growth has slowed and interest rates risen. Despite the tax-to-GDP ratio rising to the highest level in the period since 1950, borrowing is still 3 per cent of GDP above the level that would be needed to durably stabilise debt. And the Government has left itself very small margins against its objectives of restoring the current budget to balance and getting net financial liabilities to fall by the end of the decade. Despite this, public expectations of what government can and should do in response to emerging threats and future emergencies seem to be rising."
GDP is roughly £2.7trn so 1% is roughly £27bn and 3% £81bn.
So, our Chancellor claimed we had a £22bn black hole. That was a lie. It was much, much worse than that. She told us that her last budget reset the economy on a sustainable path for the Parliament. Another lie. She told us she would not need to increase taxes again. Another lie. She blew the £22bn raised by NI on wage increases for the public sector meaning that there was no improvement in the underlying situation (since those wage increases will continue to use the additional tax going forward).
How much longer are our political classes going to keep pretending?
They'll keep pretending as long as the financial markets let them.
Been out for my lunch in Manchester City centre and I’ve SWP type complaining about the rich whilst wearing Balmain trainers.
I wear Skechers. Are they better than them ?
The cheapest Balmain trainers are around £350 quid and the most expensive ones north of £1,000.
You talk like Marlene Dietrich And you dance like Zizi Jeanmaire Your clothes are all made by Balmain And there's diamonds and pearls in your hair, yes there are
Dunno when the song was written but it was number one in the hit parade in the late sixties so Balmain have been around a while.
"Underlying public debt is now at its highest level since the early 1960s and is projected to rise further over the medium term. Arresting this increase has become considerably more challenging as economic growth has slowed and interest rates risen. Despite the tax-to-GDP ratio rising to the highest level in the period since 1950, borrowing is still 3 per cent of GDP above the level that would be needed to durably stabilise debt. And the Government has left itself very small margins against its objectives of restoring the current budget to balance and getting net financial liabilities to fall by the end of the decade. Despite this, public expectations of what government can and should do in response to emerging threats and future emergencies seem to be rising."
GDP is roughly £2.7trn so 1% is roughly £27bn and 3% £81bn.
So, our Chancellor claimed we had a £22bn black hole. That was a lie. It was much, much worse than that. She told us that her last budget reset the economy on a sustainable path for the Parliament. Another lie. She told us she would not need to increase taxes again. Another lie. She blew the £22bn raised by NI on wage increases for the public sector meaning that there was no improvement in the underlying situation (since those wage increases will continue to use the additional tax going forward).
How much longer are our political classes going to keep pretending?
They'll keep pretending as long as the financial markets let them.
The voters reward this dishonesty.
True but a source of utter despair. And as for those back bench muppets voting against ridiculously modest benefits cuts.... No wonder our Chancellor was weeping.
"Underlying public debt is now at its highest level since the early 1960s and is projected to rise further over the medium term. Arresting this increase has become considerably more challenging as economic growth has slowed and interest rates risen. Despite the tax-to-GDP ratio rising to the highest level in the period since 1950, borrowing is still 3 per cent of GDP above the level that would be needed to durably stabilise debt. And the Government has left itself very small margins against its objectives of restoring the current budget to balance and getting net financial liabilities to fall by the end of the decade. Despite this, public expectations of what government can and should do in response to emerging threats and future emergencies seem to be rising."
GDP is roughly £2.7trn so 1% is roughly £27bn and 3% £81bn.
So, our Chancellor claimed we had a £22bn black hole. That was a lie. It was much, much worse than that. She told us that her last budget reset the economy on a sustainable path for the Parliament. Another lie. She told us she would not need to increase taxes again. Another lie. She blew the £22bn raised by NI on wage increases for the public sector meaning that there was no improvement in the underlying situation (since those wage increases will continue to use the additional tax going forward).
How much longer are our political classes going to keep pretending?
They'll keep pretending as long as the financial markets let them.
The voters reward this dishonesty.
True but a source of utter despair. And as for those back bench muppets voting against ridiculously modest benefits cuts.... No wonder our Chancellor was weeping.
There'll be plenty of tears to go round when it all comes crashing down.
Been out for my lunch in Manchester City centre and I’ve SWP type complaining about the rich whilst wearing Balmain trainers.
I wear Skechers. Are they better than them ?
The cheapest Balmain trainers are around £350 quid and the most expensive ones north of £1,000.
You talk like Marlene Dietrich And you dance like Zizi Jeanmaire Your clothes are all made by Balmain And there's diamonds and pearls in your hair, yes there are
Dunno when the song was written but it was number one in the hit parade in the late sixties so Balmain have been around a while.
Comments
"...But that is entirely the problem for Starmer. In a world of shifting geopolitical realities, energy transition and demographic ageing you need an analytical lens – dare I say an ideology – to understand things. Until the Labour leadership grasp that insight, the government will remain rudderless. Don’t bet on that happening before the next general election though. It would require a capacity for self-criticism – and a renunciation of everything Starmer’s political career has been built upon..."
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/labour/2025/07/starmerism-is-disintegrating
Matt Goodwin"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sI_rXpGNfIE
The closer to 50 seats/fourth the bigger the existential crisis looms
Benny Johnson (Feb 2025): "You say that the FBI has Epstein's list, they're sitting on it... Why is the FBI protecting the largest-scale pedorist [sic] in human history?"
Kash Patel: "Simple, because of who's on that list."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kash_Patel
You must learn to beware the Falcon's wiles.
Provided we define “rich” as n + 1p, where n is my current wealth.
It’s nice to know destinations - like this, the famous Rila monastery in the foothills of the Pirin mountains - can still make my jaw drop when I step inside. Coz that just happened here 10 minutes ago
Photos don’t really capture it. Ravishingly beautiful. 1200 years old. Cradle of Bulgarian orthodox Christianity. Nestled in these gorgeous forested slopes. You can hear swifts and eagles overhead
Apparently they are taking into account the increased tax burden we have all had since 2008 and acting as if it's only on doctors. I.e it's take-home pay they're using.
The numerical case for a Tory/Reform pact is massive.
Anyway, luckily there was no list and none of the above could possibly have happened.
On other matters do we reckon Ghislaine is going to be pardoned or suicided soon?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy7nv3pdgr4o
Is it me or is every quick fix solution from 2008 onwards coming home to roost at the same time
That’s what economic hard times does.
Or one MAGA person in particular.
Assuming JD Vance isn't on the list, the timing of the release will be of maximum advantage to him. Trump languishing in the MAGA glory of having got the Big Beautiful Bill into law, that time is not now.
When the bodies of the drowned little girls in Texas start getting found, maybe.
https://bsky.app/profile/coachfinstock.bsky.social/post/3ltfnftfvvk2j
And yes, I voted for some of them. Sorry about that.
The problem is the footage. Thousands of hours recorded at Epstein's place. That's what they can't scrub.
https://obr.uk/frs/fiscal-risks-and-sustainability-july-2025/
Or, in PDF form:
https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Fiscal-risks-and-sustainability-report-July-2025.pdf
https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1942321892565594441
Until he TACOs.
Abolish the triple lock.
https://x.com/JamesReform/status/1942553763362816258?t=W8icOF62QKrUncOQpdSH-g&s=19
The truth is no one can manage it. Otherwise it would be solved.
But taxi companies and drivers have alternatives.
They are the one of the four (including Councils), who aren't obliged to by law
A curious position for a union to take. Imagine if employers took the same approach to their various legal obligations on health and safety, the minimum wage etc.,.
It is precisely this attitude which led the Post Office to ignore its legal obligations on investigations and criminal prosecutions and harm people it did not value. Given the reports there have been on sexist behaviour within fire brigades, you'd have thought the union would have some regard for its women members.
https://x.com/RupertLowe10/status/1942555867129512336?t=vR1D1DWl8-nfjCxVqEpEUg&s=19
And being PM at the head of a coalition government is even more absurd.
Nige and Poodle Tice to be last men standing
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/live/cd62e8vxpj1t
What does this actually mean other than "I've talked to a lawyer and am saying nothing" ?
.. I have now had a chance to take specialist legal advice from an expert in the relevant field. In light of that advice, which is privileged and which I choose to keep private at this time..
But, as with Boris, that process only happens one person at a time and plenty never get close enough to be properly betrayed.
And the bad news for old party optimists is that people let down by one charlatan are likely to move on to another one.
Anderson will blow up at some point, far too opinionated and happy to jump ship
Won’t Happen though
This govt and, especially, its useless backbenchers will fold under the lightest pressure.
https://x.com/theifs/status/1941059637026918463?s=61
Hes taken legal advice and has quit the Reform party to sit an an independent. There's no purpose to him quitting Reform if there isnt significant bad blood there.
As for the allegations, he was already defending himself with the whip suspended, quitting the party in advance of any investigation would be totally superfluous
"I am leaving the party permanently"
and
"Having consulted a lawyer I am leaving the party permanently"
It will be chaotic, ugly and do immense damage, but I reckon Nigel could keep the bandwagon rolling for a full term.
"The UK cannot afford the range of policies it has made to the public"
Pretty bald statement from OBR chief Richard Hughes, launching its review of risks to the public finances which shows debt spiralling upwards
This country is nearly ungovernable.
I don't believe there is a police investigation into the matter nor indeed any referral to the Standards Commissioner unless I missed it.
The opposition will surely use this to bash the government, but all while proposing plans that don't remotely address the reality.
Cometh the hour. Cometh the Lib Dem’s.
And you dance like Zizi Jeanmaire
Your clothes are all made by Balmain
And there's diamonds and pearls in your hair, yes there are
The fact you can’t tell the difference from 20 yards is worrying however
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cp829kxdpz2o
"Underlying public debt is now at its highest level since the early 1960s and is projected to rise further over the medium term. Arresting this increase has become considerably more challenging as economic growth has slowed and interest rates risen. Despite the tax-to-GDP ratio rising to the highest level in the period since 1950, borrowing is still 3 per cent of GDP above the level that would be needed to durably stabilise debt. And the Government has left itself very small margins against its objectives of restoring the current budget to balance and getting net financial liabilities to fall by the end of the decade. Despite this, public expectations of what government can and should do in response to emerging threats and future emergencies seem to be rising."
GDP is roughly £2.7trn so 1% is roughly £27bn and 3% £81bn.
So, our Chancellor claimed we had a £22bn black hole. That was a lie. It was much, much worse than that. She told us that her last budget reset the economy on a sustainable path for the Parliament. Another lie. She told us she would not need to increase taxes again. Another lie. She blew the £22bn raised by NI on wage increases for the public sector meaning that there was no improvement in the underlying situation (since those wage increases will continue to use the additional tax going forward).
How much longer are our political classes going to keep pretending?
The voters reward this dishonesty.
Where do you go to my lovely.
Copyright youtube