A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
On those figures Starmer(?) would require Kemi, Davey and the SNP. Farage would only need Kemi OR Davey. Can't see Davey getting involved with either Tories or Reform.
Yes so most likely a Reform government propped up by the Kemi led Tories and the same applies if Jenrick became Tory leader.
If Cleverly or Stride became Tory leader not impossible they could back Starmer over Farage though, in return for some fiscal conservatism on tax and spend but again Starmer could then have problems with his backbenchers
Supporting a Reform 'government', or, even worse, being part of a Reform-led coalition would lead to the demise of the Conservative party as we know it.
Last thread was a hoot, cannot wait to hear more from "THE FALCON" when he awakens from his stupour.
And verily, See that His Sublime Grace LEONDAMUS, Lord Paramount of Camden, Warden of the Primrose Hill Borders, Commander of the Mighty Herd, He Who Rides The Unbridled Thunder, Surveyor of the PB Wastes and Whisperer to Kings, the Master known as Al-Saqr to the Desert Arabs, as Shahin to the Dusky Persians, and as THE FALCON to us all…
is awake. And maybe having a coffee
If you need a sidekick, I'm always happy to play The Tit
You do yourself down. Try calling yourself "The Merlin". Our smallest hawk. But damn it, good enough to power the Spitfire...
Also the Bolton Paul Defiant; armament pointing backwards, disastrous in the daytime once the enemy knew what was up and reduced to lurking in the night hoping to bag a prize. And a load of useless to mediocre Faireys.
Merlin engines also powered America's best fighter, the Mustang, which gave the allies aerial superiority then supremacy over Europe. The Mustang's original engines had been no good but the Merlin fixed that. One of the key features of the war was allied cooperation and cross-fertilisation in arms development and manufacture. The axis powers never had that.
The Allison V-1710 was actually more powerful than the Merlin. Up to 15,000 feet Mustangs equipped with it were actually a bit faster.
Above 15k, the issue was the supercharger. The design of the Mustang hadn’t included a turbocharger, mostly for cost/simplicity reasons. The USAF preferred turbochargers for high altitude work.
So the Alison was left with a single stage supercharger in the Mustang. Hence the change to the Merlin with a two stage supercharger.
IIRC the RAF used Alison engines Mustangs until the end of the war, for low level ground attack.
The engineering development of performance piston engines during WWII, with the available technology of the 40s, was actually pretty amazing.
Combined with the fuel. By the end of the war, fuel had become so specialised that it was very difficult for the Germans to run captured aircraft on their fuel. The Allies had less problems, but still couldn’t run German aircraft at full power for all but the briefest times.
The 150 octane (and higher) were witches brews that only vaguely resembled “petrol”.
I used to consider jet engines as incredibly complex. And they are. But in WW2, they were actually simpler in many ways than the contemporary piston engines. Take the Rolls Royce Crecy - and incredibly complex and promising two-strike engine that started development in 1941, and which was cancelled in 1946 without being flown.
In comparison, the Wellend jet engine, used in the Meteor, took about four years between development starting and first flight, despite Rover having been involved in its development for a couple of years and it being a new technology.
If you could make materials that could withstand the temperatures, the jet engines were in many ways simpler.
One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:
"I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
On those figures Starmer(?) would require Kemi, Davey and the SNP. Farage would only need Kemi OR Davey. Can't see Davey getting involved with either Tories or Reform.
Yes so most likely a Reform government propped up by the Kemi led Tories and the same applies if Jenrick became Tory leader.
If Cleverly or Stride became Tory leader not impossible they could back Starmer over Farage though, in return for some fiscal conservatism on tax and spend but again Starmer could then have problems with his backbenchers
Supporting a Reform 'government', or, even worse, being part of a Reform-led coalition would lead to the demise of the Conservative party as we know it.
Would it? Supporting a Labour minority government would be more likely to do that I would have thought.
Though yes any support for either wouldn't be via coalition but confidence and supply and voting on each bill on its own merits
Wow. Good start for the new Observer to have uncovered all this.
I read and enjoyed the salt path partly because I spend so much time in Devon and know the places she describes. Pretty sure we were there when they walked through. I have always been suspicious about elements of the story. The name, Moth, is never explained, nor related as a nickname. The illness being alleviated in a classic alternative medicine way too.
The book(s) have undoubtedly changed their lives and would not have done quite so well if the truth was told (assuming the Observer is correct).
The other element is that we all tell stories about our personal history and sometimes come to believe the myths. I had a friend at uni who told lies all the time, including about events I was with him. I have no doubt he believed what he said, even though it couldn’t be true. He used to tell of watching Leeds United with a mate with a motorbike, my friend riding pillion. The tales imploded somewhat when said motorbikes came to Swindon vs Leeds with my friend and I and asked him ‘ have you been to watch Leeds before?’
It’s possible that Wynn, or Taylor or whoever she is has come to believe her version of events. Or she could be a cold hearted fraudster on the male who has hit the jackpot…
Some amusing scenes on Twitter of Trumpists asking Grok if Trump's bill will only cut medical and and welfare for "the migrants and illegals", and then being nonplussed, abd confounded by the response. Quite a few seems to be in a quandary between tech worship and Trump cultistry now.
37 years ago today since the Piper Alpha disaster. My Dad was working off shore in the North Sea at the time but he was away on a short holiday with my Mum and my sister and I were both at home house/cat and dog sitting for them. We had neither the radio or the TV on that day, but I always remember the phone started ringing as old friends of my Dad who didn't realise which rig he worked on or that he was on shore started phoning to check in with him and their relief when they discovered he was away on holiday. I think it was about the third random phonecall from an old friend of his when I said right what is going on and why is everyone suddenly phoning to check in on my Dad today.
I had moved from Aberdeen the year before to take up a nursing job in Edinburgh, but one of my best friends was on duty at Aberdeen Royal Infirmary when the news came in and the hospital went into emergency mode in preparation for a large amount of incoming casualties and she still talks about the utter shock and sadness that overwhelmed the staff on duty there that day when those casualties didn't materialise as the enormity of the tragedy unfolded.
I had my interview for my first job offshore on the day after Piper Alpha.
60 were due to be interviewed. 12 of us turned up.
We all got jobs
I had been with Chevron about a week. An horrific introduction to the North Sea oil and gas industry.
I have spent my whole career in the shadow of that night. It was utterly transformative for the oil industry around the world.... except the USA.
It may be little consolation to the relatives of those who died but it is undoubtedly the case that many times that number have worked in safety because of the changes wrought by Piper Alpha.
And, dare I say it, the changes driven by the lawyers and the insurers as a result of the unbelievable fiscal cost of the disaster. The fees for the lawyers were frankly obscene. My firm gave some of our fees to the families, it simply seemed unconscionable to us.
The Cullen report to my mind harked back to some of those great Royal Commissions of the 19th centry that did so much to improve health and safety in our factories and cities. It was a masterful piece of work and, more importantly, the Government took it on wholesale. It was so well done that the Norwegian's, on whom Cullen had based a lot of his recommendations, adopted it themselves, as did almost every other country in the world with an offshore industry.
Sadly the one obvious exception was the USA. Hence Mercondo.
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
On those figures Starmer(?) would require Kemi, Davey and the SNP. Farage would only need Kemi OR Davey. Can't see Davey getting involved with either Tories or Reform.
Yes so most likely a Reform government propped up by the Kemi led Tories and the same applies if Jenrick became Tory leader.
If Cleverly or Stride became Tory leader not impossible they could back Starmer over Farage though, in return for some fiscal conservatism on tax and spend but again Starmer could then have problems with his backbenchers
Supporting a Reform 'government', or, even worse, being part of a Reform-led coalition would lead to the demise of the Conservative party as we know it.
Are you suggesting it would cease to be a divided, unpopular, backstabbing party without principles, policies or talent? Sounds like a good thing to me.
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
To be honest, the More In Common MRP before the GE last year was Labour 430, Conservatives 126, LDs 52 so make of this (and that) what you will.
Like most other pollsters, MiC missed out local swings and changes so this MRP needs to have some salt (and popcorn) added for digestion.
I struggle with Labour on 126 simply because Labour haven't been below 200 in any election since 1945 and the concentrated nature of their vote makes me think they'll always have a solid number of seats in London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle and elsewhere.
The Conservatives might draw some comfort from being slightly ahead of the LDs but again I'd question that on what might be both an actual 2.5% swing from Con to LD but also Reform tearing further chunks out of the Conservative vote but we'll see.
Badenoch is going to be facing some awkward questions as the election approaches if the numbers are as they are - would she support a minority Reform administration and what would be the nature of that support? As the LDs discovered, once you nump, you're likely to lose more supporters than you gain.
One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:
"I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."
37 years ago today since the Piper Alpha disaster. My Dad was working off shore in the North Sea at the time but he was away on a short holiday with my Mum and my sister and I were both at home house/cat and dog sitting for them. We had neither the radio or the TV on that day, but I always remember the phone started ringing as old friends of my Dad who didn't realise which rig he worked on or that he was on shore started phoning to check in with him and their relief when they discovered he was away on holiday. I think it was about the third random phonecall from an old friend of his when I said right what is going on and why is everyone suddenly phoning to check in on my Dad today.
I had moved from Aberdeen the year before to take up a nursing job in Edinburgh, but one of my best friends was on duty at Aberdeen Royal Infirmary when the news came in and the hospital went into emergency mode in preparation for a large amount of incoming casualties and she still talks about the utter shock and sadness that overwhelmed the staff on duty there that day when those casualties didn't materialise as the enormity of the tragedy unfolded.
I had my interview for my first job offshore on the day after Piper Alpha.
60 were due to be interviewed. 12 of us turned up.
We all got jobs
I had been with Chevron about a week. An horrific introduction to the North Sea oil and gas industry.
I have spent my whole career in the shadow of that night. It was utterly transformative for the oil industry around the world.... except the USA.
It may be little consolation to the relatives of those who died but it is undoubtedly the case that many times that number have worked in safety because of the changes wrought by Piper Alpha.
We can only hope that the same level of lessons are learned from Covid.
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
To be honest, the More In Common MRP before the GE last year was Labour 430, Conservatives 126, LDs 52 so make of this (and that) what you will.
Like most other pollsters, MiC missed out local swings and changes so this MRP needs to have some salt (and popcorn) added for digestion.
I struggle with Labour on 126 simply because Labour haven't been below 200 in any election since 1945 and the concentrated nature of their vote makes me think they'll always have a solid number of seats in London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle and elsewhere.
The Conservatives might draw some comfort from being slightly ahead of the LDs but again I'd question that on what might be both an actual 2.5% swing from Con to LD but also Reform tearing further chunks out of the Conservative vote but we'll see.
Badenoch is going to be facing some awkward questions as the election approaches if the numbers are as they are - would she support a minority Reform administration and what would be the nature of that support? As the LDs discovered, once you nump, you're likely to lose more supporters than you gain.
Most 2010 LD voters preferred a Labour led government to a Conservative led government, most current Conservative voters prefer a Refom led government to a Labour led government so a different context.
Badenoch would also likely only give confidence and supply to Reform rather than form a full coalition with them as Clegg did with the Tories
37 years ago today since the Piper Alpha disaster. My Dad was working off shore in the North Sea at the time but he was away on a short holiday with my Mum and my sister and I were both at home house/cat and dog sitting for them. We had neither the radio or the TV on that day, but I always remember the phone started ringing as old friends of my Dad who didn't realise which rig he worked on or that he was on shore started phoning to check in with him and their relief when they discovered he was away on holiday. I think it was about the third random phonecall from an old friend of his when I said right what is going on and why is everyone suddenly phoning to check in on my Dad today.
I had moved from Aberdeen the year before to take up a nursing job in Edinburgh, but one of my best friends was on duty at Aberdeen Royal Infirmary when the news came in and the hospital went into emergency mode in preparation for a large amount of incoming casualties and she still talks about the utter shock and sadness that overwhelmed the staff on duty there that day when those casualties didn't materialise as the enormity of the tragedy unfolded.
I had my interview for my first job offshore on the day after Piper Alpha.
60 were due to be interviewed. 12 of us turned up.
We all got jobs
I had been with Chevron about a week. An horrific introduction to the North Sea oil and gas industry.
That was the company my Dad was working for in the North Sea back then.
One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:
"I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."
Last thread was a hoot, cannot wait to hear more from "THE FALCON" when he awakens from his stupour.
And verily, See that His Sublime Grace LEONDAMUS, Lord Paramount of Camden, Warden of the Primrose Hill Borders, Commander of the Mighty Herd, He Who Rides The Unbridled Thunder, Surveyor of the PB Wastes and Whisperer to Kings, the Master known as Al-Saqr to the Desert Arabs, as Shahin to the Dusky Persians, and as THE FALCON to us all…
is awake. And maybe having a coffee
If you need a sidekick, I'm always happy to play The Tit
You do yourself down. Try calling yourself "The Merlin". Our smallest hawk. But damn it, good enough to power the Spitfire...
Also the Bolton Paul Defiant; armament pointing backwards, disastrous in the daytime once the enemy knew what was up and reduced to lurking in the night hoping to bag a prize. And a load of useless to mediocre Faireys.
Merlin engines also powered America's best fighter, the Mustang, which gave the allies aerial superiority then supremacy over Europe. The Mustang's original engines had been no good but the Merlin fixed that. One of the key features of the war was allied cooperation and cross-fertilisation in arms development and manufacture. The axis powers never had that.
The Allison V-1710 was actually more powerful than the Merlin. Up to 15,000 feet Mustangs equipped with it were actually a bit faster.
Above 15k, the issue was the supercharger. The design of the Mustang hadn’t included a turbocharger, mostly for cost/simplicity reasons. The USAF preferred turbochargers for high altitude work.
So the Alison was left with a single stage supercharger in the Mustang. Hence the change to the Merlin with a two stage supercharger.
IIRC the RAF used Alison engines Mustangs until the end of the war, for low level ground attack.
The engineering development of performance piston engines during WWII, with the available technology of the 40s, was actually pretty amazing.
Combined with the fuel. By the end of the war, fuel had become so specialised that it was very difficult for the Germans to run captured aircraft on their fuel. The Allies had less problems, but still couldn’t run German aircraft at full power for all but the briefest times.
The 150 octane (and higher) were witches brews that only vaguely resembled “petrol”.
I used to consider jet engines as incredibly complex. And they are. But in WW2, they were actually simpler in many ways than the contemporary piston engines. Take the Rolls Royce Crecy - and incredibly complex and promising two-strike engine that started development in 1941, and which was cancelled in 1946 without being flown.
In comparison, the Wellend jet engine, used in the Meteor, took about four years between development starting and first flight, despite Rover having been involved in its development for a couple of years and it being a new technology.
If you could make materials that could withstand the temperatures, the jet engines were in many ways simpler.
A big thing that gets missed is vibration and noise. A two thousand horsepower engine rattled the fighter it was in. Literally into bits. It also had a massive effect on pilot alertness and perception. After the war, some studies on vibration and motion revealed that the effects on judgement and action could be profound.
By contrast, the jets, right from the start, were smooth and relatively quiet.
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
To be honest, the More In Common MRP before the GE last year was Labour 430, Conservatives 126, LDs 52 so make of this (and that) what you will.
Like most other pollsters, MiC missed out local swings and changes so this MRP needs to have some salt (and popcorn) added for digestion.
I struggle with Labour on 126 simply because Labour haven't been below 200 in any election since 1945 and the concentrated nature of their vote makes me think they'll always have a solid number of seats in London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle and elsewhere.
The Conservatives might draw some comfort from being slightly ahead of the LDs but again I'd question that on what might be both an actual 2.5% swing from Con to LD but also Reform tearing further chunks out of the Conservative vote but we'll see.
Badenoch is going to be facing some awkward questions as the election approaches if the numbers are as they are - would she support a minority Reform administration and what would be the nature of that support? As the LDs discovered, once you nump, you're likely to lose more supporters than you gain.
To large extent, it doesn't really matter what she says because, if by some miracle she isn't unhorsed by the next GE, she will be out on her arse straight after if she loses another 40 seats.
The obvious move for the tories is no formal coalition but support a Fukker King's Speech, let them flail around trying to govern as an impotent minority administration and then bring down the government when the polls look favourable.
37 years ago today since the Piper Alpha disaster. My Dad was working off shore in the North Sea at the time but he was away on a short holiday with my Mum and my sister and I were both at home house/cat and dog sitting for them. We had neither the radio or the TV on that day, but I always remember the phone started ringing as old friends of my Dad who didn't realise which rig he worked on or that he was on shore started phoning to check in with him and their relief when they discovered he was away on holiday. I think it was about the third random phonecall from an old friend of his when I said right what is going on and why is everyone suddenly phoning to check in on my Dad today.
I had moved from Aberdeen the year before to take up a nursing job in Edinburgh, but one of my best friends was on duty at Aberdeen Royal Infirmary when the news came in and the hospital went into emergency mode in preparation for a large amount of incoming casualties and she still talks about the utter shock and sadness that overwhelmed the staff on duty there that day when those casualties didn't materialise as the enormity of the tragedy unfolded.
I had my interview for my first job offshore on the day after Piper Alpha.
60 were due to be interviewed. 12 of us turned up.
We all got jobs
I had been with Chevron about a week. An horrific introduction to the North Sea oil and gas industry.
I have spent my whole career in the shadow of that night. It was utterly transformative for the oil industry around the world.... except the USA.
It may be little consolation to the relatives of those who died but it is undoubtedly the case that many times that number have worked in safety because of the changes wrought by Piper Alpha.
And, dare I say it, the changes driven by the lawyers and the insurers as a result of the unbelievable fiscal cost of the disaster. The fees for the lawyers were frankly obscene. My firm gave some of our fees to the families, it simply seemed unconscionable to us.
The Cullen report to my mind harked back to some of those great Royal Commissions of the 19th centry that did so much to improve health and safety in our factories and cities. It was a masterful piece of work and, more importantly, the Government took it on wholesale. It was so well done that the Norwegian's, on whom Cullen had based a lot of his recommendations, adopted it themselves, as did almost every other country in the world with an offshore industry.
Sadly the one obvious exception was the USA. Hence Mercondo.
Where is his like today? And the likes of Warnock?
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
To be honest, the More In Common MRP before the GE last year was Labour 430, Conservatives 126, LDs 52 so make of this (and that) what you will.
Like most other pollsters, MiC missed out local swings and changes so this MRP needs to have some salt (and popcorn) added for digestion.
I struggle with Labour on 126 simply because Labour haven't been below 200 in any election since 1945 and the concentrated nature of their vote makes me think they'll always have a solid number of seats in London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle and elsewhere.
The Conservatives might draw some comfort from being slightly ahead of the LDs but again I'd question that on what might be both an actual 2.5% swing from Con to LD but also Reform tearing further chunks out of the Conservative vote but we'll see.
Badenoch is going to be facing some awkward questions as the election approaches if the numbers are as they are - would she support a minority Reform administration and what would be the nature of that support? As the LDs discovered, once you nump, you're likely to lose more supporters than you gain.
Most 2010 LD voters preferred a Labour led government to a Conservative led government, most current Conservative voters prefer a Refom led government to a Labour led government so a different context.
Badenoch would also likely only give confidence and supply to Reform rather than form a full coalition with them as Clegg did with the Tories
The 2010 Government did a lot of things wrong.... NHS reform, scrapping Sure-Start, for example, but it lasted reasonably securely and without many unforced changes for the full term. Sadly the Conservatives decided to turn on their allies as opposed to the Opposition.
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
On those figures Starmer(?) would require Kemi, Davey and the SNP. Farage would only need Kemi OR Davey. Can't see Davey getting involved with either Tories or Reform.
Yes so most likely a Reform government propped up by the Kemi led Tories and the same applies if Jenrick became Tory leader.
If Cleverly or Stride became Tory leader not impossible they could back Starmer over Farage though, in return for some fiscal conservatism on tax and spend but again Starmer could then have problems with his backbenchers
Supporting a Reform 'government', or, even worse, being part of a Reform-led coalition would lead to the demise of the Conservative party as we know it.
Supporting either Reform, or Labour, would land them in trouble.
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
On those figures Starmer(?) would require Kemi, Davey and the SNP. Farage would only need Kemi OR Davey. Can't see Davey getting involved with either Tories or Reform.
Yes so most likely a Reform government propped up by the Kemi led Tories and the same applies if Jenrick became Tory leader.
If Cleverly or Stride became Tory leader not impossible they could back Starmer over Farage though, in return for some fiscal conservatism on tax and spend but again Starmer could then have problems with his backbenchers
Supporting a Reform 'government', or, even worse, being part of a Reform-led coalition would lead to the demise of the Conservative party as we know it.
Supporting either Reform, or Labour, would land them in trouble.
Yup, it's surely just sit quietly and let Reform implode as a minority government and then be ready to pick up the pieces as a "grown up" party.
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
To be honest, the More In Common MRP before the GE last year was Labour 430, Conservatives 126, LDs 52 so make of this (and that) what you will.
Like most other pollsters, MiC missed out local swings and changes so this MRP needs to have some salt (and popcorn) added for digestion.
I struggle with Labour on 126 simply because Labour haven't been below 200 in any election since 1945 and the concentrated nature of their vote makes me think they'll always have a solid number of seats in London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle and elsewhere.
The Conservatives might draw some comfort from being slightly ahead of the LDs but again I'd question that on what might be both an actual 2.5% swing from Con to LD but also Reform tearing further chunks out of the Conservative vote but we'll see.
Badenoch is going to be facing some awkward questions as the election approaches if the numbers are as they are - would she support a minority Reform administration and what would be the nature of that support? As the LDs discovered, once you nump, you're likely to lose more supporters than you gain.
Assuming the LDs retain all of the lent GTTO votes they picked up in 2024 then a universal swing of 2.5% picks up about 5 Tory seats. It will entirely depend where the votes are being picked up and lost. I suspect the Tories are losing more in the North and Midlands than the South. In any case at 28, 22, 21, 15, 8 a very small swing dramatically alters the outcome - 1 percent swing from reform to both Lab and Con and it all looks very different or another 1 percent Con to LD and its down to fourth for Con
Last thread was a hoot, cannot wait to hear more from "THE FALCON" when he awakens from his stupour.
And verily, See that His Sublime Grace LEONDAMUS, Lord Paramount of Camden, Warden of the Primrose Hill Borders, Commander of the Mighty Herd, He Who Rides The Unbridled Thunder, Surveyor of the PB Wastes and Whisperer to Kings, the Master known as Al-Saqr to the Desert Arabs, as Shahin to the Dusky Persians, and as THE FALCON to us all…
is awake. And maybe having a coffee
If you need a sidekick, I'm always happy to play The Tit
You do yourself down. Try calling yourself "The Merlin". Our smallest hawk. But damn it, good enough to power the Spitfire...
Also the Bolton Paul Defiant; armament pointing backwards, disastrous in the daytime once the enemy knew what was up and reduced to lurking in the night hoping to bag a prize. And a load of useless to mediocre Faireys.
Merlin engines also powered America's best fighter, the Mustang, which gave the allies aerial superiority then supremacy over Europe. The Mustang's original engines had been no good but the Merlin fixed that. One of the key features of the war was allied cooperation and cross-fertilisation in arms development and manufacture. The axis powers never had that.
The Allison V-1710 was actually more powerful than the Merlin. Up to 15,000 feet Mustangs equipped with it were actually a bit faster.
Above 15k, the issue was the supercharger. The design of the Mustang hadn’t included a turbocharger, mostly for cost/simplicity reasons. The USAF preferred turbochargers for high altitude work.
So the Alison was left with a single stage supercharger in the Mustang. Hence the change to the Merlin with a two stage supercharger.
IIRC the RAF used Alison engines Mustangs until the end of the war, for low level ground attack.
The engineering development of performance piston engines during WWII, with the available technology of the 40s, was actually pretty amazing.
Combined with the fuel. By the end of the war, fuel had become so specialised that it was very difficult for the Germans to run captured aircraft on their fuel. The Allies had less problems, but still couldn’t run German aircraft at full power for all but the briefest times.
The 150 octane (and higher) were witches brews that only vaguely resembled “petrol”.
I used to consider jet engines as incredibly complex. And they are. But in WW2, they were actually simpler in many ways than the contemporary piston engines. Take the Rolls Royce Crecy - and incredibly complex and promising two-strike engine that started development in 1941, and which was cancelled in 1946 without being flown.
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
On those figures Starmer(?) would require Kemi, Davey and the SNP. Farage would only need Kemi OR Davey. Can't see Davey getting involved with either Tories or Reform.
Yes so most likely a Reform government propped up by the Kemi led Tories and the same applies if Jenrick became Tory leader.
If Cleverly or Stride became Tory leader not impossible they could back Starmer over Farage though, in return for some fiscal conservatism on tax and spend but again Starmer could then have problems with his backbenchers
Supporting a Reform 'government', or, even worse, being part of a Reform-led coalition would lead to the demise of the Conservative party as we know it.
Supporting either Reform, or Labour, would land them in trouble.
Yup, it's surely just sit quietly and let Reform implode as a minority government and then be ready to pick up the pieces as a "grown up" party.
Yep. 'You've tried the rest now reelect the best' style Note - pithy nonsense phrases not an endorsement
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
To be honest, the More In Common MRP before the GE last year was Labour 430, Conservatives 126, LDs 52 so make of this (and that) what you will.
Like most other pollsters, MiC missed out local swings and changes so this MRP needs to have some salt (and popcorn) added for digestion.
I struggle with Labour on 126 simply because Labour haven't been below 200 in any election since 1945 and the concentrated nature of their vote makes me think they'll always have a solid number of seats in London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle and elsewhere.
The Conservatives might draw some comfort from being slightly ahead of the LDs but again I'd question that on what might be both an actual 2.5% swing from Con to LD but also Reform tearing further chunks out of the Conservative vote but we'll see.
Badenoch is going to be facing some awkward questions as the election approaches if the numbers are as they are - would she support a minority Reform administration and what would be the nature of that support? As the LDs discovered, once you nump, you're likely to lose more supporters than you gain.
Assuming the LDs retain all of the lent GTTO votes they picked up in 2024 then a universal swing of 2.5% picks up about 5 Tory seats. It will entirely depend where the votes are being picked up and lost. I suspect the Tories are losing more in the North and Midlands than the South. In any case at 28, 22, 21, 15, 8 a very small swing dramatically alters the outcome - 1 percent swing from reform to both Lab and Con and it all looks very different or another 1 percent Con to LD and its down to fourth for Con
But why would they retain the anti-tory vote in 2029 when it's much more likely that the nation will be split down the anti-reform and anti-labour lines. Those voters aren't anywhere close to being guaranteed to vote Lib Dem, especially in seats which look like either Labour or Reform aren't in contention so there's little to no tactical voting.
37 years ago today since the Piper Alpha disaster. My Dad was working off shore in the North Sea at the time but he was away on a short holiday with my Mum and my sister and I were both at home house/cat and dog sitting for them. We had neither the radio or the TV on that day, but I always remember the phone started ringing as old friends of my Dad who didn't realise which rig he worked on or that he was on shore started phoning to check in with him and their relief when they discovered he was away on holiday. I think it was about the third random phonecall from an old friend of his when I said right what is going on and why is everyone suddenly phoning to check in on my Dad today.
I had moved from Aberdeen the year before to take up a nursing job in Edinburgh, but one of my best friends was on duty at Aberdeen Royal Infirmary when the news came in and the hospital went into emergency mode in preparation for a large amount of incoming casualties and she still talks about the utter shock and sadness that overwhelmed the staff on duty there that day when those casualties didn't materialise as the enormity of the tragedy unfolded.
I had my interview for my first job offshore on the day after Piper Alpha.
60 were due to be interviewed. 12 of us turned up.
We all got jobs
I had been with Chevron about a week. An horrific introduction to the North Sea oil and gas industry.
I have spent my whole career in the shadow of that night. It was utterly transformative for the oil industry around the world.... except the USA.
It may be little consolation to the relatives of those who died but it is undoubtedly the case that many times that number have worked in safety because of the changes wrought by Piper Alpha.
And, dare I say it, the changes driven by the lawyers and the insurers as a result of the unbelievable fiscal cost of the disaster. The fees for the lawyers were frankly obscene. My firm gave some of our fees to the families, it simply seemed unconscionable to us.
The Cullen report to my mind harked back to some of those great Royal Commissions of the 19th centry that did so much to improve health and safety in our factories and cities. It was a masterful piece of work and, more importantly, the Government took it on wholesale. It was so well done that the Norwegian's, on whom Cullen had based a lot of his recommendations, adopted it themselves, as did almost every other country in the world with an offshore industry.
Sadly the one obvious exception was the USA. Hence Mercondo.
Where is his like today? And the likes of Warnock?
Giants…
We've got Louise Casey, who is blooming good, but (sadly) awfully busy.
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
To be honest, the More In Common MRP before the GE last year was Labour 430, Conservatives 126, LDs 52 so make of this (and that) what you will.
Like most other pollsters, MiC missed out local swings and changes so this MRP needs to have some salt (and popcorn) added for digestion.
I struggle with Labour on 126 simply because Labour haven't been below 200 in any election since 1945 and the concentrated nature of their vote makes me think they'll always have a solid number of seats in London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle and elsewhere.
The Conservatives might draw some comfort from being slightly ahead of the LDs but again I'd question that on what might be both an actual 2.5% swing from Con to LD but also Reform tearing further chunks out of the Conservative vote but we'll see.
Badenoch is going to be facing some awkward questions as the election approaches if the numbers are as they are - would she support a minority Reform administration and what would be the nature of that support? As the LDs discovered, once you nump, you're likely to lose more supporters than you gain.
Assuming the LDs retain all of the lent GTTO votes they picked up in 2024 then a universal swing of 2.5% picks up about 5 Tory seats. It will entirely depend where the votes are being picked up and lost. I suspect the Tories are losing more in the North and Midlands than the South. In any case at 28, 22, 21, 15, 8 a very small swing dramatically alters the outcome - 1 percent swing from reform to both Lab and Con and it all looks very different or another 1 percent Con to LD and its down to fourth for Con
But why would they retain the anti-tory vote in 2029 when it's much more likely that the nation will be split down the anti-reform and anti-labour lines. Those voters aren't anywhere close to being guaranteed to vote Lib Dem, especially in seats which look like either Labour or Reform aren't in contention so there's little to no tactical voting.
That's kind of my point. Ive said many times I expect some tactical unwind in the blue wall but I was pointing out here that even absent that unwind its a tough ask for the LDs to pick up many more Tory seats on these voting figures
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
On those figures Starmer(?) would require Kemi, Davey and the SNP. Farage would only need Kemi OR Davey. Can't see Davey getting involved with either Tories or Reform.
Yes so most likely a Reform government propped up by the Kemi led Tories and the same applies if Jenrick became Tory leader.
If Cleverly or Stride became Tory leader not impossible they could back Starmer over Farage though, in return for some fiscal conservatism on tax and spend but again Starmer could then have problems with his backbenchers
Supporting a Reform 'government', or, even worse, being part of a Reform-led coalition would lead to the demise of the Conservative party as we know it.
A Reform government really would crash the market given how fantastical their tax and spending plans are. The Tories, after Truss, can't be associated with a second disaster.
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
On those figures Starmer(?) would require Kemi, Davey and the SNP. Farage would only need Kemi OR Davey. Can't see Davey getting involved with either Tories or Reform.
Yes so most likely a Reform government propped up by the Kemi led Tories and the same applies if Jenrick became Tory leader.
If Cleverly or Stride became Tory leader not impossible they could back Starmer over Farage though, in return for some fiscal conservatism on tax and spend but again Starmer could then have problems with his backbenchers
Supporting a Reform 'government', or, even worse, being part of a Reform-led coalition would lead to the demise of the Conservative party as we know it.
Supporting either Reform, or Labour, would land them in trouble.
Yup, it's surely just sit quietly and let Reform implode as a minority government and then be ready to pick up the pieces as a "grown up" party.
Yep. 'You've tried the rest now reelect the best' style Note - pithy nonsense phrases not an endorsement
Am reminded of a sign on a builders' van in Brum.
"The Singh Brothers: You've tried the cowboys, now try the Indians..."
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
On those figures Starmer(?) would require Kemi, Davey and the SNP. Farage would only need Kemi OR Davey. Can't see Davey getting involved with either Tories or Reform.
Yes so most likely a Reform government propped up by the Kemi led Tories and the same applies if Jenrick became Tory leader.
If Cleverly or Stride became Tory leader not impossible they could back Starmer over Farage though, in return for some fiscal conservatism on tax and spend but again Starmer could then have problems with his backbenchers
Supporting a Reform 'government', or, even worse, being part of a Reform-led coalition would lead to the demise of the Conservative party as we know it.
Supporting either Reform, or Labour, would land them in trouble.
Yup, it's surely just sit quietly and let Reform implode as a minority government and then be ready to pick up the pieces as a "grown up" party.
Yep. 'You've tried the rest now reelect the best' style Note - pithy nonsense phrases not an endorsement
Am reminded of a sign on a builders' van in Brum.
"The Singh Brothers: You've tried the cowboys, now try the Indians..."
"We're glad to say, we're in the UK Indian batsmen can bat all day"
37 years ago today since the Piper Alpha disaster. My Dad was working off shore in the North Sea at the time but he was away on a short holiday with my Mum and my sister and I were both at home house/cat and dog sitting for them. We had neither the radio or the TV on that day, but I always remember the phone started ringing as old friends of my Dad who didn't realise which rig he worked on or that he was on shore started phoning to check in with him and their relief when they discovered he was away on holiday. I think it was about the third random phonecall from an old friend of his when I said right what is going on and why is everyone suddenly phoning to check in on my Dad today.
I had moved from Aberdeen the year before to take up a nursing job in Edinburgh, but one of my best friends was on duty at Aberdeen Royal Infirmary when the news came in and the hospital went into emergency mode in preparation for a large amount of incoming casualties and she still talks about the utter shock and sadness that overwhelmed the staff on duty there that day when those casualties didn't materialise as the enormity of the tragedy unfolded.
I had my interview for my first job offshore on the day after Piper Alpha.
60 were due to be interviewed. 12 of us turned up.
We all got jobs
I had been with Chevron about a week. An horrific introduction to the North Sea oil and gas industry.
I have spent my whole career in the shadow of that night. It was utterly transformative for the oil industry around the world.... except the USA.
It may be little consolation to the relatives of those who died but it is undoubtedly the case that many times that number have worked in safety because of the changes wrought by Piper Alpha.
And, dare I say it, the changes driven by the lawyers and the insurers as a result of the unbelievable fiscal cost of the disaster. The fees for the lawyers were frankly obscene. My firm gave some of our fees to the families, it simply seemed unconscionable to us.
The Cullen report to my mind harked back to some of those great Royal Commissions of the 19th centry that did so much to improve health and safety in our factories and cities. It was a masterful piece of work and, more importantly, the Government took it on wholesale. It was so well done that the Norwegian's, on whom Cullen had based a lot of his recommendations, adopted it themselves, as did almost every other country in the world with an offshore industry.
Sadly the one obvious exception was the USA. Hence Mercondo.
Notably, the public enquiry took two years to report. That would likely be at least half a decade now ?
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
Not really. Reform on 290 seats makes it very hard to form an alternative government. Lab + Con + LDM + GRN + SNP = 329 which is a very small majority for a five-party coalition, and you'd never get those five parties all working together to support a government.
Even Lab + Con + LDM would only be 280.
Farage becomes PM, but do the Tories do a deal for confidence and supply, or precipitate another GE soon afterwards?
The interesting party there is the Lib Dems. Only +1 seat. I sometimes think they will see GE2024 as a missed opportunity, where they should have leapfrogged the Tories to become the official opposition.
One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:
"I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
To be honest, the More In Common MRP before the GE last year was Labour 430, Conservatives 126, LDs 52 so make of this (and that) what you will.
Like most other pollsters, MiC missed out local swings and changes so this MRP needs to have some salt (and popcorn) added for digestion.
I struggle with Labour on 126 simply because Labour haven't been below 200 in any election since 1945 and the concentrated nature of their vote makes me think they'll always have a solid number of seats in London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle and elsewhere.
The Conservatives might draw some comfort from being slightly ahead of the LDs but again I'd question that on what might be both an actual 2.5% swing from Con to LD but also Reform tearing further chunks out of the Conservative vote but we'll see.
Badenoch is going to be facing some awkward questions as the election approaches if the numbers are as they are - would she support a minority Reform administration and what would be the nature of that support? As the LDs discovered, once you nump, you're likely to lose more supporters than you gain.
Assuming the LDs retain all of the lent GTTO votes they picked up in 2024 then a universal swing of 2.5% picks up about 5 Tory seats. It will entirely depend where the votes are being picked up and lost. I suspect the Tories are losing more in the North and Midlands than the South. In any case at 28, 22, 21, 15, 8 a very small swing dramatically alters the outcome - 1 percent swing from reform to both Lab and Con and it all looks very different or another 1 percent Con to LD and its down to fourth for Con
But why would they retain the anti-tory vote in 2029 when it's much more likely that the nation will be split down the anti-reform and anti-labour lines. Those voters aren't anywhere close to being guaranteed to vote Lib Dem, especially in seats which look like either Labour or Reform aren't in contention so there's little to no tactical voting.
Two counterpoints.
1 It's the Lib Dems. Once they get a toe (poking out of their sandals) hold in a constituency, they are bloody hard to shift. Last time, it took them being in government.
2 A lot of those GTTO voters are people who habitually voted Labour in constituencies where the traditional split was C60 LD25 L15 or thereabouts. Whilst there initial jump may have been motivated by GTTO, Starmer's Year One has probably driven them further into the arms of their new yellow friends.
(If I were looking for a Conservative fightback, it would be in seats where Labour were beneficiaries of GTTO clumping.)
Seems the weather service has been gutted by Trump/DOGE. So they can dismantle the people making Americans aware of the threat of global warming.
In a just world, Trump would never recover from these actions.
In a just world...
Accounts are not entirely clear, as it appears the NWS, while signify underestimating the forecast rainfall, did send out weather alerts.
But this sort of stuff is patent bullshit.
Reporter: Why was the national weather service not pinging their phones before 7.. Was it a fundamental failure of the federal government’s responsibility to keep us safe?
Noem: Trump is currently upgrading the technology in the national weather service.. we needed to renew this ancient system that has been left in place with the federal government https://x.com/Acyn/status/1941600458730315789
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
On those figures Starmer(?) would require Kemi, Davey and the SNP. Farage would only need Kemi OR Davey. Can't see Davey getting involved with either Tories or Reform.
Yes so most likely a Reform government propped up by the Kemi led Tories and the same applies if Jenrick became Tory leader.
If Cleverly or Stride became Tory leader not impossible they could back Starmer over Farage though, in return for some fiscal conservatism on tax and spend but again Starmer could then have problems with his backbenchers
Supporting a Reform 'government', or, even worse, being part of a Reform-led coalition would lead to the demise of the Conservative party as we know it.
Supporting either Reform, or Labour, would land them in trouble.
Yup, it's surely just sit quietly and let Reform implode as a minority government and then be ready to pick up the pieces as a "grown up" party.
Yep. 'You've tried the rest now reelect the best' style Note - pithy nonsense phrases not an endorsement
Am reminded of a sign on a builders' van in Brum.
"The Singh Brothers: You've tried the cowboys, now try the Indians..."
"We're glad to say, we're in the UK Indian batsmen can bat all day"
They won’t need to bat at all today. England won’t be batting all day either, at this rate.
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
Not really. Reform on 290 seats makes it very hard to form an alternative government. Lab + Con + LDM + GRN + SNP = 329 which is a very small majority for a five-party coalition, and you'd never get those five parties all working together to support a government.
Even Lab + Con + LDM would only be 280.
Farage becomes PM, but do the Tories do a deal for confidence and supply, or precipitate another GE soon afterwards?
The interesting party there is the Lib Dems. Only +1 seat. I sometimes think they will see GE2024 as a missed opportunity, where they should have leapfrogged the Tories to become the official opposition.
It could be that after the next election, whoever forms the Government will have to get their policies through on a case by case basis. It will be good practice for when PR is introduced.
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
There is no way on earth Starmer becomes PM again on those numbers. You are looking at Ref with Con CandS.
Last thread was a hoot, cannot wait to hear more from "THE FALCON" when he awakens from his stupour.
And verily, See that His Sublime Grace LEONDAMUS, Lord Paramount of Camden, Warden of the Primrose Hill Borders, Commander of the Mighty Herd, He Who Rides The Unbridled Thunder, Surveyor of the PB Wastes and Whisperer to Kings, the Master known as Al-Saqr to the Desert Arabs, as Shahin to the Dusky Persians, and as THE FALCON to us all…
is awake. And maybe having a coffee
If you need a sidekick, I'm always happy to play The Tit
You do yourself down. Try calling yourself "The Merlin". Our smallest hawk. But damn it, good enough to power the Spitfire...
Also the Bolton Paul Defiant; armament pointing backwards, disastrous in the daytime once the enemy knew what was up and reduced to lurking in the night hoping to bag a prize. And a load of useless to mediocre Faireys.
Merlin engines also powered America's best fighter, the Mustang, which gave the allies aerial superiority then supremacy over Europe. The Mustang's original engines had been no good but the Merlin fixed that. One of the key features of the war was allied cooperation and cross-fertilisation in arms development and manufacture. The axis powers never had that.
The Allison V-1710 was actually more powerful than the Merlin. Up to 15,000 feet Mustangs equipped with it were actually a bit faster.
Above 15k, the issue was the supercharger. The design of the Mustang hadn’t included a turbocharger, mostly for cost/simplicity reasons. The USAF preferred turbochargers for high altitude work.
So the Alison was left with a single stage supercharger in the Mustang. Hence the change to the Merlin with a two stage supercharger.
IIRC the RAF used Alison engines Mustangs until the end of the war, for low level ground attack.
The engineering development of performance piston engines during WWII, with the available technology of the 40s, was actually pretty amazing.
Combined with the fuel. By the end of the war, fuel had become so specialised that it was very difficult for the Germans to run captured aircraft on their fuel. The Allies had less problems, but still couldn’t run German aircraft at full power for all but the briefest times.
The 150 octane (and higher) were witches brews that only vaguely resembled “petrol”.
I used to consider jet engines as incredibly complex. And they are. But in WW2, they were actually simpler in many ways than the contemporary piston engines. Take the Rolls Royce Crecy - and incredibly complex and promising two-strike engine that started development in 1941, and which was cancelled in 1946 without being flown.
Note the turbocharged version featured a half scale version of Whittle's jet engine.
Building 3-4000hp piston engines at useful weights is an incredibly expensive development process. With a high rate of failure.
The moment the piston engine died was when Rolls engineers realised that the prototype Whittle engine was already putting out more hp/lb than the latest Merlin.
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
Not really. Reform on 290 seats makes it very hard to form an alternative government. Lab + Con + LDM + GRN + SNP = 329 which is a very small majority for a five-party coalition, and you'd never get those five parties all working together to support a government.
Even Lab + Con + LDM would only be 280.
Farage becomes PM, but do the Tories do a deal for confidence and supply, or precipitate another GE soon afterwards?
The interesting party there is the Lib Dems. Only +1 seat. I sometimes think they will see GE2024 as a missed opportunity, where they should have leapfrogged the Tories to become the official opposition.
Even then Farage could not get any legislation through without Tory support.
With most seats he would likely lead a minority Reform government but he would have to bargain for every Bill
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
Not really. Reform on 290 seats makes it very hard to form an alternative government. Lab + Con + LDM + GRN + SNP = 329 which is a very small majority for a five-party coalition, and you'd never get those five parties all working together to support a government.
Even Lab + Con + LDM would only be 280.
Farage becomes PM, but do the Tories do a deal for confidence and supply, or precipitate another GE soon afterwards?
The interesting party there is the Lib Dems. Only +1 seat. I sometimes think they will see GE2024 as a missed opportunity, where they should have leapfrogged the Tories to become the official opposition.
Even then Farage could not get any legislation through without Tory support.
With most seats he would likely lead a minority Reform government but he would have to bargain for every Bill
Though there's quite a lot a determined government can do without passing any laws, it's not easy to see a Farage government coping well with the give-and-take of minority.
(But yes, stepping aside is the best plan for the Conservatives in that scenario. To actively back anyone will be to die at the next election. "Kingmaker" may sound good, but "Muggins" is more accurate.)
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
To be honest, the More In Common MRP before the GE last year was Labour 430, Conservatives 126, LDs 52 so make of this (and that) what you will.
Like most other pollsters, MiC missed out local swings and changes so this MRP needs to have some salt (and popcorn) added for digestion.
I struggle with Labour on 126 simply because Labour haven't been below 200 in any election since 1945 and the concentrated nature of their vote makes me think they'll always have a solid number of seats in London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle and elsewhere.
The Conservatives might draw some comfort from being slightly ahead of the LDs but again I'd question that on what might be both an actual 2.5% swing from Con to LD but also Reform tearing further chunks out of the Conservative vote but we'll see.
Badenoch is going to be facing some awkward questions as the election approaches if the numbers are as they are - would she support a minority Reform administration and what would be the nature of that support? As the LDs discovered, once you nump, you're likely to lose more supporters than you gain.
Assuming the LDs retain all of the lent GTTO votes they picked up in 2024 then a universal swing of 2.5% picks up about 5 Tory seats. It will entirely depend where the votes are being picked up and lost. I suspect the Tories are losing more in the North and Midlands than the South. In any case at 28, 22, 21, 15, 8 a very small swing dramatically alters the outcome - 1 percent swing from reform to both Lab and Con and it all looks very different or another 1 percent Con to LD and its down to fourth for Con
But why would they retain the anti-tory vote in 2029 when it's much more likely that the nation will be split down the anti-reform and anti-labour lines. Those voters aren't anywhere close to being guaranteed to vote Lib Dem, especially in seats which look like either Labour or Reform aren't in contention so there's little to no tactical voting.
That's kind of my point. Ive said many times I expect some tactical unwind in the blue wall but I was pointing out here that even absent that unwind its a tough ask for the LDs to pick up many more Tory seats on these voting figures
With incumbency (i.e. proven they can win) and with an unpopular government, it will be easier for LD MPs to win over Labour supporters in their seats, than it was last time.
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
To be honest, the More In Common MRP before the GE last year was Labour 430, Conservatives 126, LDs 52 so make of this (and that) what you will.
Like most other pollsters, MiC missed out local swings and changes so this MRP needs to have some salt (and popcorn) added for digestion.
I struggle with Labour on 126 simply because Labour haven't been below 200 in any election since 1945 and the concentrated nature of their vote makes me think they'll always have a solid number of seats in London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle and elsewhere.
The Conservatives might draw some comfort from being slightly ahead of the LDs but again I'd question that on what might be both an actual 2.5% swing from Con to LD but also Reform tearing further chunks out of the Conservative vote but we'll see.
Badenoch is going to be facing some awkward questions as the election approaches if the numbers are as they are - would she support a minority Reform administration and what would be the nature of that support? As the LDs discovered, once you nump, you're likely to lose more supporters than you gain.
Assuming the LDs retain all of the lent GTTO votes they picked up in 2024 then a universal swing of 2.5% picks up about 5 Tory seats. It will entirely depend where the votes are being picked up and lost. I suspect the Tories are losing more in the North and Midlands than the South. In any case at 28, 22, 21, 15, 8 a very small swing dramatically alters the outcome - 1 percent swing from reform to both Lab and Con and it all looks very different or another 1 percent Con to LD and its down to fourth for Con
But why would they retain the anti-tory vote in 2029 when it's much more likely that the nation will be split down the anti-reform and anti-labour lines. Those voters aren't anywhere close to being guaranteed to vote Lib Dem, especially in seats which look like either Labour or Reform aren't in contention so there's little to no tactical voting.
That's kind of my point. Ive said many times I expect some tactical unwind in the blue wall but I was pointing out here that even absent that unwind its a tough ask for the LDs to pick up many more Tory seats on these voting figures
With incumbency (i.e. proven they can win) and with an unpopular government, it will be easier for LD MPs to win over Labour supporters in their seats, than it was last time.
That will add weight on the other side of the scales for sure. Time will tell which side weighs more (as will the national picture at the time of course)
One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:
"I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."
One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:
"I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."
The political capture of both law enforcement and the justice system is happening very rapidly, and far more blatantly than even I expected.
But at least it’s being captured by the right side. By American patriots
In the UK that capture is being done by people, agencies, cultures - that actively hate the UK
Your usual half-baked nonsense. It’s quite obvious that in the US these so-called patriots hate a lot about their own country, and are trashing many of its people, businesses, institutions and alliances. These are, after all, the same people that trashed, or supported the trashing of, their own Capitol not all that long ago.
Tomorrow, Uranus enters Gemini for the first time since the mid-1940's. . If one was set any stock by the views of astrologers, which I suspect the majority on PB wouldn't, it would be a new era of change in technology and communications, and a general speeding-up.
Seems the weather service has been gutted by Trump/DOGE. So they can dismantle the people making Americans aware of the threat of global warming.
In a just world, Trump would never recover from these actions.
In a just world...
Accounts are not entirely clear, as it appears the NWS, while signify underestimating the forecast rainfall, did send out weather alerts.
But this sort of stuff is patent bullshit.
Reporter: Why was the national weather service not pinging their phones before 7.. Was it a fundamental failure of the federal government’s responsibility to keep us safe?
Noem: Trump is currently upgrading the technology in the national weather service.. we needed to renew this ancient system that has been left in place with the federal government https://x.com/Acyn/status/1941600458730315789
Accounts *are* entirely clear , Noem is trying "but look at the squirrel" dishonest self-serving arse-covering bollocks.
She is complicit in a desire to destroy federal emergency organisations, and Trump's other cuts such as gutting of the weather service.
The NWS was able to deliver warnings last year; it can't this year because they cut it to ribbons 3-4 months ago.
Here is an AP report from February 25:
WASHINGTON (AP) — Hundreds of weather forecasters and other federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration employees on probationary status were fired Thursday, lawmakers and weather experts said.
Federal workers who were not let go said the afternoon layoffs included meteorologists who do crucial local forecasts in National Weather Service offices across the country .... Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said on social media that the job cuts “are spectacularly short-sighted, and ultimately will deal a major self-inflicted wound to the public safety of Americans and the resiliency of the American economy to weather and climate-related disasters.”
One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:
"I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."
One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:
"I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."
Seems the weather service has been gutted by Trump/DOGE. So they can dismantle the people making Americans aware of the threat of global warming.
In a just world, Trump would never recover from these actions.
In a just world...
Accounts are not entirely clear, as it appears the NWS, while signify underestimating the forecast rainfall, did send out weather alerts.
But this sort of stuff is patent bullshit.
Reporter: Why was the national weather service not pinging their phones before 7.. Was it a fundamental failure of the federal government’s responsibility to keep us safe?
Noem: Trump is currently upgrading the technology in the national weather service.. we needed to renew this ancient system that has been left in place with the federal government https://x.com/Acyn/status/1941600458730315789
Accounts *are* entirely clear , Noem is trying "but look at the squirrel" dishonest self-serving arse-covering bollocks.
She is complicit in a desire to destroy federal emergency organisations, and Trump's other cuts such as gutting of the weather service.
The NWS was able to deliver warnings last year; it can't this year because they cut it to ribbons 3-4 months ago.
Here is an AP report from February 25:
WASHINGTON (AP) — Hundreds of weather forecasters and other federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration employees on probationary status were fired Thursday, lawmakers and weather experts said.
Federal workers who were not let go said the afternoon layoffs included meteorologists who do crucial local forecasts in National Weather Service offices across the country .... Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said on social media that the job cuts “are spectacularly short-sighted, and ultimately will deal a major self-inflicted wound to the public safety of Americans and the resiliency of the American economy to weather and climate-related disasters.”
Tomorrow, Uranus enters Gemini for the first time since the mid-1940's. . If one was set any stock by the views of astrologers, which I suspect the majority on PB wouldn't, it would be a new era of change in technology and communications, and a general speeding-up.
I don't believe in atrology. I'm a Taurus and we're sceptical.
One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:
"I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."
One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:
"I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."
Phillipson is a bit crabby and tetchy on LauraK this morning.
Pressure. Pushing down on me.
I'm not a fan, but she seems to be doing very well to me. Not sure she is saying anything but very calm, quick speaking, not a single 'um', corrected a mis-speak very quickly. Really good at thinking on her feet.
She is a good speaker other than it is far too fast.
The BBC national treasure Laura Kuennsberg hates all Labour scumbags, she'll get the better of her by hook or by crook.
And why has Kuennsberg added the half-witted Paddy O'Connell to her already unlistenable and moronic podcast?
The hate for Kuennsberg among left wing men is remarkable. I don't really pay her much attention but I've never seen a coherent explanation of what is so bad about her.
Stephen Flynn called Johnson "a liar", Kuennsberg despite evidence in the public domain to the contrary defended Johnson with a retort of "that is some charge".
On the other hand this week she has written a withering criticism of Starmer's incompetence on the BBC News webpages. Now in the latter case she is not wrong, but where is the BBC's famed non partisanship where Kuennsberg is concerned?
I note you received two "likes" so far for that post. Well done!
One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:
"I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."
Tomorrow, Uranus enters Gemini for the first time since the mid-1940's. . If one was set any stock by the views of astrologers, which I suspect the majority on PB wouldn't, it would be a new era of change in technology and communications, and a general speeding-up.
Bollocks! The planet Uranus is in Taurus at the moment.
One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:
"I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."
Kinnick warns or wealth taxes 4 months ahead of a budget so the wealthy can depart these shores even faster.
There won't be a wealth tax. The Budget will 'just' be an extension on the income tax thresholds freeze for two years (worth around £14bn in total?) plus some tinkering maybe increased levy on banks, stamp duty loading on second properties up to 8% like Scotland, maybe a few more % CGT that's it.
I don't think Rachel or Keir are going to try anything more radical now notwithstanding their HUGE majority.
Econométrica projects that the Argentine economy grew by 7.6% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025
But cutting state spending, welfare and regulation doesn't work in the real world, it's all nonsense and any country who tries it will fail. I hope that other Latin American countries look hard at Argentina and follow suit, cut tariffs, cut regulations, cut welfare and chop government spending. Inflation down, growth up, poverty down and the currency is almost at a free float after decades of black market rates and all that nonsense.
Kinnick warns or wealth taxes 4 months ahead of a budget so the wealthy can depart these shores even faster.
There won't be a wealth tax. The Budget will 'just' be an extension on the income tax thresholds freeze for two years (worth around £14bn in total?) plus some tinkering maybe increased levy on banks, stamp duty loading on second properties up to 8% like Scotland, maybe a few more % CGT that's it.
I don't think Rachel or Keir are going to try anything more radical now notwithstanding their HUGE majority.
The outriders floating policies will still make the wealthy think theyre in for a kicking. Its as stupid as Reeves talking up taxes rises this time last year and creating her own crisis. These people have learned nothing.
Tomorrow, Uranus enters Gemini for the first time since the mid-1940's. . If one was set any stock by the views of astrologers, which I suspect the majority on PB wouldn't, it would be a new era of change in technology and communications, and a general speeding-up.
Bollocks! The planet Uranus is in Taurus at the moment.
Some years ago, I was struck by the similarity of polls in the US and UK: A large majority of Republicans thought the US was a good nation -- with some flaws, but about half of Democrats thought it was a bad nation -- with some redeeming features. The results in the UK were very similar, most Conservatives thinking the UK was a good nation, and a large number of Labour supporters disagreeing.
Seems the weather service has been gutted by Trump/DOGE. So they can dismantle the people making Americans aware of the threat of global warming.
In a just world, Trump would never recover from these actions.
In a just world...
Accounts are not entirely clear, as it appears the NWS, while signify underestimating the forecast rainfall, did send out weather alerts.
But this sort of stuff is patent bullshit.
Reporter: Why was the national weather service not pinging their phones before 7.. Was it a fundamental failure of the federal government’s responsibility to keep us safe?
Noem: Trump is currently upgrading the technology in the national weather service.. we needed to renew this ancient system that has been left in place with the federal government https://x.com/Acyn/status/1941600458730315789
Accounts *are* entirely clear , Noem is trying "but look at the squirrel" dishonest self-serving arse-covering bollocks.
She is complicit in a desire to destroy federal emergency organisations, and Trump's other cuts such as gutting of the weather service.
The NWS was able to deliver warnings last year; it can't this year because they cut it to ribbons 3-4 months ago.
Here is an AP report from February 25:
WASHINGTON (AP) — Hundreds of weather forecasters and other federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration employees on probationary status were fired Thursday, lawmakers and weather experts said.
Federal workers who were not let go said the afternoon layoffs included meteorologists who do crucial local forecasts in National Weather Service offices across the country .... Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said on social media that the job cuts “are spectacularly short-sighted, and ultimately will deal a major self-inflicted wound to the public safety of Americans and the resiliency of the American economy to weather and climate-related disasters.”
I posted a couple of video links earlier, which set it in the context of Noem's previous enthusiastic statements about destroying FEMA et al.
Of course, these deaths will be the rounding error on the rounding error of the deaths caused by 17m losing their Medicaidentitlement .
Ah, but fuck 'em, they're poor.
The Medicaid deaths are themselves likely to be a rounding error on the numbers who will die because Trump has terminated multiple wordwide vaccination programmes via closing down USAID.
Kinnick warns or wealth taxes 4 months ahead of a budget so the wealthy can depart these shores even faster.
There won't be a wealth tax. The Budget will 'just' be an extension on the income tax thresholds freeze for two years (worth around £14bn in total?) plus some tinkering maybe increased levy on banks, stamp duty loading on second properties up to 8% like Scotland, maybe a few more % CGT that's it.
I don't think Rachel or Keir are going to try anything more radical now notwithstanding their HUGE majority.
The outriders floating policies will still make the wealthy think theyre in for a kicking. Its as stupid as Reeves talking up taxes rises this time last year and creating her own crisis. These people have learned nothing.
Not the 'wealthy' but people public sector leftists think are wealthy - anyone with a DC pension pot of over $400k for example - or they think are tax dodging - anyone using salary sacrifice for their pension.
It’s weird reading this site on government finance.
Tax destroys money. Government spending creates money. A pound only exists while it is circulating.
We need tax or we get inflation. We need spending or we all live and die badly.
All we need to do is tax the wealthy to prevent them driving inflation and to spend on infrastructure and need. The churn between the two functions will keep the economy rolling along.
And never listen to economists telling you that banks create wealth.
One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:
"I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."
Seems the weather service has been gutted by Trump/DOGE. So they can dismantle the people making Americans aware of the threat of global warming.
In a just world, Trump would never recover from these actions.
In a just world...
Accounts are not entirely clear, as it appears the NWS, while signify underestimating the forecast rainfall, did send out weather alerts.
But this sort of stuff is patent bullshit.
Reporter: Why was the national weather service not pinging their phones before 7.. Was it a fundamental failure of the federal government’s responsibility to keep us safe?
Noem: Trump is currently upgrading the technology in the national weather service.. we needed to renew this ancient system that has been left in place with the federal government https://x.com/Acyn/status/1941600458730315789
Accounts *are* entirely clear , Noem is trying "but look at the squirrel" dishonest self-serving arse-covering bollocks.
She is complicit in a desire to destroy federal emergency organisations, and Trump's other cuts such as gutting of the weather service.
The NWS was able to deliver warnings last year; it can't this year because they cut it to ribbons 3-4 months ago.
Here is an AP report from February 25:
WASHINGTON (AP) — Hundreds of weather forecasters and other federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration employees on probationary status were fired Thursday, lawmakers and weather experts said.
Federal workers who were not let go said the afternoon layoffs included meteorologists who do crucial local forecasts in National Weather Service offices across the country .... Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said on social media that the job cuts “are spectacularly short-sighted, and ultimately will deal a major self-inflicted wound to the public safety of Americans and the resiliency of the American economy to weather and climate-related disasters.”
I posted a couple of video links earlier, which set it in the context of Noem's previous enthusiastic statements about destroying FEMA et al.
Of course, these deaths will be the rounding error on the rounding error of the deaths caused by 17m losing their Medicaidentitlement .
Ah, but fuck 'em, they're poor.
The Medicaid deaths are themselves likely to be a rounding error on the numbers who will die because Trump has terminated multiple wordwide vaccination programmes via closing down USAID.
I hear a lot of outrage here about the shutdown of US aid programmes, but in the UK, we are now spending roughly a quarter of our ODA budget on asylum acommodation within the UK. That represents a vast number of overseas programmes shut down and people suffering. If on the other hand it hasn't affected people that much, then what was the aid budget for anyway?
I would expect taking money away from the world's most vulnerable and giving it to hotel owners to put up fighting age men would be a cause for concern to anyone with genuine compassion, but it would seem not.
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285) 🌹 LAB 126 (- 285) 🌳 CON 81 (-40) 🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7 (+3) 🟡 SNP 42 (+33) 🟩 Plaid 4 (-) ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
To be honest, the More In Common MRP before the GE last year was Labour 430, Conservatives 126, LDs 52 so make of this (and that) what you will.
Like most other pollsters, MiC missed out local swings and changes so this MRP needs to have some salt (and popcorn) added for digestion.
I struggle with Labour on 126 simply because Labour haven't been below 200 in any election since 1945 and the concentrated nature of their vote makes me think they'll always have a solid number of seats in London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle and elsewhere.
The Conservatives might draw some comfort from being slightly ahead of the LDs but again I'd question that on what might be both an actual 2.5% swing from Con to LD but also Reform tearing further chunks out of the Conservative vote but we'll see.
Badenoch is going to be facing some awkward questions as the election approaches if the numbers are as they are - would she support a minority Reform administration and what would be the nature of that support? As the LDs discovered, once you nump, you're likely to lose more supporters than you gain.
Assuming the LDs retain all of the lent GTTO votes they picked up in 2024 then a universal swing of 2.5% picks up about 5 Tory seats. It will entirely depend where the votes are being picked up and lost. I suspect the Tories are losing more in the North and Midlands than the South. In any case at 28, 22, 21, 15, 8 a very small swing dramatically alters the outcome - 1 percent swing from reform to both Lab and Con and it all looks very different or another 1 percent Con to LD and its down to fourth for Con
But why would they retain the anti-tory vote in 2029 when it's much more likely that the nation will be split down the anti-reform and anti-labour lines. Those voters aren't anywhere close to being guaranteed to vote Lib Dem, especially in seats which look like either Labour or Reform aren't in contention so there's little to no tactical voting.
That's kind of my point. Ive said many times I expect some tactical unwind in the blue wall but I was pointing out here that even absent that unwind its a tough ask for the LDs to pick up many more Tory seats on these voting figures
With incumbency (i.e. proven they can win) and with an unpopular government, it will be easier for LD MPs to win over Labour supporters in their seats, than it was last time.
Labour share of vote in Lib Dem seats with the Tories second:
1997: 15.2% 2001: 13.3% 2005: 12.4%
2024: 9.6%
Not sure there is much scope for squeezing Labour further.
One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:
"I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."
Seems the weather service has been gutted by Trump/DOGE. So they can dismantle the people making Americans aware of the threat of global warming.
In a just world, Trump would never recover from these actions.
In a just world...
Accounts are not entirely clear, as it appears the NWS, while signify underestimating the forecast rainfall, did send out weather alerts.
But this sort of stuff is patent bullshit.
Reporter: Why was the national weather service not pinging their phones before 7.. Was it a fundamental failure of the federal government’s responsibility to keep us safe?
Noem: Trump is currently upgrading the technology in the national weather service.. we needed to renew this ancient system that has been left in place with the federal government https://x.com/Acyn/status/1941600458730315789
Accounts *are* entirely clear , Noem is trying "but look at the squirrel" dishonest self-serving arse-covering bollocks.
She is complicit in a desire to destroy federal emergency organisations, and Trump's other cuts such as gutting of the weather service.
The NWS was able to deliver warnings last year; it can't this year because they cut it to ribbons 3-4 months ago.
Here is an AP report from February 25:
WASHINGTON (AP) — Hundreds of weather forecasters and other federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration employees on probationary status were fired Thursday, lawmakers and weather experts said.
Federal workers who were not let go said the afternoon layoffs included meteorologists who do crucial local forecasts in National Weather Service offices across the country .... Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said on social media that the job cuts “are spectacularly short-sighted, and ultimately will deal a major self-inflicted wound to the public safety of Americans and the resiliency of the American economy to weather and climate-related disasters.”
I posted a couple of video links earlier, which set it in the context of Noem's previous enthusiastic statements about destroying FEMA et al.
Of course, these deaths will be the rounding error on the rounding error of the deaths caused by 17m losing their Medicaidentitlement .
Ah, but fuck 'em, they're poor.
The Medicaid deaths are themselves likely to be a rounding error on the numbers who will die because Trump has terminated multiple wordwide vaccination programmes via closing down USAID.
I hear a lot of outrage here about the shutdown of US aid programmes, but in the UK, we are now spending roughly a quarter of our ODA budget on asylum acommodation within the UK. That represents a vast number of overseas programmes shut down and people suffering. If on the other hand it hasn't affected people that much, then what was the aid budget for anyway?
I would expect taking money away from the world's most vulnerable and giving it to hotel owners to put up fighting age men would be a cause for concern to anyone with genuine compassion, but it would seem not.
Surely you aren't suggesting that if it wasn't spent on asylum seekers you think it should be spent on other foreigners?
Comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Royce_Crecy
In comparison, the Wellend jet engine, used in the Meteor, took about four years between development starting and first flight, despite Rover having been involved in its development for a couple of years and it being a new technology.
If you could make materials that could withstand the temperatures, the jet engines were in many ways simpler.
ATM!
Though yes any support for either wouldn't be via coalition but confidence and supply and voting on each bill on its own merits
I have always been suspicious about elements of the story. The name, Moth, is never explained, nor related as a nickname. The illness being alleviated in a classic alternative medicine way too.
The book(s) have undoubtedly changed their lives and would not have done quite so well if the truth was told (assuming the Observer is correct).
The other element is that we all tell stories about our personal history and sometimes come to believe the myths. I had a friend at uni who told lies all the time, including about events I was with him. I have no doubt he believed what he said, even though it couldn’t be true. He used to tell of watching Leeds United with a mate with a motorbike, my friend riding pillion. The tales imploded somewhat when said motorbikes came to Swindon vs Leeds with my friend and I and asked him ‘ have you been to watch Leeds before?’
It’s possible that Wynn, or Taylor or whoever she is has come to believe her version of events. Or she could be a cold hearted fraudster on the male who has hit the jackpot…
Sadly the one obvious exception was the USA. Hence Mercondo.
Like most other pollsters, MiC missed out local swings and changes so this MRP needs to have some salt (and popcorn) added for digestion.
I struggle with Labour on 126 simply because Labour haven't been below 200 in any election since 1945 and the concentrated nature of their vote makes me think they'll always have a solid number of seats in London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle and elsewhere.
The Conservatives might draw some comfort from being slightly ahead of the LDs but again I'd question that on what might be both an actual 2.5% swing from Con to LD but also Reform tearing further chunks out of the Conservative vote but we'll see.
Badenoch is going to be facing some awkward questions as the election approaches if the numbers are as they are - would she support a minority Reform administration and what would be the nature of that support? As the LDs discovered, once you nump, you're likely to lose more supporters than you gain.
Tipping down here, though!
Badenoch would also likely only give confidence and supply to Reform rather than form a full coalition with them as Clegg did with the Tories
By contrast, the jets, right from the start, were smooth and relatively quiet.
The obvious move for the tories is no formal coalition but support a Fukker King's Speech, let them flail around trying to govern as an impotent minority administration and then bring down the government when the polls look favourable.
Giants…
Sadly the Conservatives decided to turn on their allies as opposed to the Opposition.
Seems the weather service has been gutted by Trump/DOGE. So they can dismantle the people making Americans aware of the threat of global warming.
In a just world, Trump would never recover from these actions.
In a just world...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qq2qTe4qybU
(Slight trigger warning, this is a RefUK scrutiny feed called Political Custard, which spends its time pointing out problems.)
In any case at 28, 22, 21, 15, 8 a very small swing dramatically alters the outcome - 1 percent swing from reform to both Lab and Con and it all looks very different or another 1 percent Con to LD and its down to fourth for Con
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/air-space-magazine/worlds-fastest-piston-airplane-180969509/
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_racing
Note the turbocharged version featured a half scale version of Whittle's jet engine.
Note - pithy nonsense phrases not an endorsement
"The Singh Brothers: You've tried the cowboys, now try the Indians..."
Indian batsmen can bat all day"
That would likely be at least half a decade now ?
Even Lab + Con + LDM would only be 280.
Farage becomes PM, but do the Tories do a deal for confidence and supply, or precipitate another GE soon afterwards?
The interesting party there is the Lib Dems. Only +1 seat. I sometimes think they will see GE2024 as a missed opportunity, where they should have leapfrogged the Tories to become the official opposition.
1 It's the Lib Dems. Once they get a toe (poking out of their sandals) hold in a constituency, they are bloody hard to shift. Last time, it took them being in government.
2 A lot of those GTTO voters are people who habitually voted Labour in constituencies where the traditional split was C60 LD25 L15 or thereabouts. Whilst there initial jump may have been motivated by GTTO, Starmer's Year One has probably driven them further into the arms of their new yellow friends.
(If I were looking for a Conservative fightback, it would be in seats where Labour were beneficiaries of GTTO clumping.)
But this sort of stuff is patent bullshit.
Reporter: Why was the national weather service not pinging their phones before 7.. Was it a fundamental failure of the federal government’s responsibility to keep us safe?
Noem: Trump is currently upgrading the technology in the national weather service.. we needed to renew this ancient system that has been left in place with the federal government
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1941600458730315789
The moment the piston engine died was when Rolls engineers realised that the prototype Whittle engine was already putting out more hp/lb than the latest Merlin.
With most seats he would likely lead a minority Reform government but he would have to bargain for every Bill
(But yes, stepping aside is the best plan for the Conservatives in that scenario. To actively back anyone will be to die at the next election. "Kingmaker" may sound good, but "Muggins" is more accurate.)
Sunset time today is 0032 (tomorrow) and sunrise will be at 0145.
In the UK that capture is being done by people, agencies, cultures - that actively hate the UK
They yearn for an America where rich white people kept black people as slaves.
If one was set any stock by the views of astrologers, which I suspect the majority on PB wouldn't, it would be a new era of change in technology and communications, and a general speeding-up.
She is complicit in a desire to destroy federal emergency organisations, and Trump's other cuts such as gutting of the weather service.
The NWS was able to deliver warnings last year; it can't this year because they cut it to ribbons 3-4 months ago.
Here is an AP report from February 25:
WASHINGTON (AP) — Hundreds of weather forecasters and other federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration employees on probationary status were fired Thursday, lawmakers and weather experts said.
Federal workers who were not let go said the afternoon layoffs included meteorologists who do crucial local forecasts in National Weather Service offices across the country
....
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said on social media that the job cuts “are spectacularly short-sighted, and ultimately will deal a major self-inflicted wound to the public safety of Americans and the resiliency of the American economy to weather and climate-related disasters.”
https://apnews.com/article/national-weather-service-layoffs-trump-doge-a65360a1eb2500b7d47c9c966e383f4a
I posted a couple of video links earlier, which set it in the context of Noem's previous enthusiastic statements about destroying FEMA et al.
Not someone who hates the US Constitution (besides the 2nd Amendment), and flies the flag of America's enemy in either the Civil War or WWII.
Ah, but fuck 'em, they're poor.
On the other hand this week she has written a withering criticism of Starmer's incompetence on the BBC News webpages. Now in the latter case she is not wrong, but where is the BBC's famed non partisanship where Kuennsberg is concerned?
I note you received two "likes" so far for that post. Well done!
Kinnick warns or wealth taxes 4 months ahead of a budget so the wealthy can depart these shores even faster.
https://theskylive.com/uranus-info#:~:text=Uranus is in the constellation of Taurus, at,(apparent coordinates). The magnitude of Uranus is 5.83.
https://derechadiario.com.ar/us/argentina/econometrica-announced-76-year-on-year-growth-in-the-second-quarter
Econométrica projects that the Argentine economy grew by 7.6% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025
I don't think Rachel or Keir are going to try anything more radical now notwithstanding their HUGE majority.
GAVI has been seriously damaged, for example. TBF, the UK 40% cuts are part of this.
https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/latest/us-makes-deadly-decision-withdraw-funding-gavi
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/jun/25/scientists-criticise-cut-in-uk-funding-for-global-vaccination-group
Tax destroys money.
Government spending creates money.
A pound only exists while it is circulating.
We need tax or we get inflation.
We need spending or we all live and die badly.
All we need to do is tax the wealthy to prevent them driving inflation and to spend on infrastructure and need. The churn between the two functions will keep the economy rolling along.
And never listen to economists telling you that banks create wealth.
Bands A to Z.
Continuing the £160k band increments would give a band Z of £3.2 million and over.
I would expect taking money away from the world's most vulnerable and giving it to hotel owners to put up fighting age men would be a cause for concern to anyone with genuine compassion, but it would seem not.
1997: 15.2%
2001: 13.3%
2005: 12.4%
2024: 9.6%
Not sure there is much scope for squeezing Labour further.
https://www.lincolnsquare.media/p/one-big-beautiful-bill-the-picketts
How woke.