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Labour’s Liz Truss problem x 100 – politicalbetting.com

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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,182
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
    On those figures Starmer(?) would require Kemi, Davey and the SNP. Farage would only need Kemi OR Davey.
    Can't see Davey getting involved with either Tories or Reform.
    Yes so most likely a Reform government propped up by the Kemi led Tories and the same applies if Jenrick became Tory leader.

    If Cleverly or Stride became Tory leader not impossible they could back Starmer over Farage though, in return for some fiscal conservatism on tax and spend but again Starmer could then have problems with his backbenchers
    Supporting a Reform 'government', or, even worse, being part of a Reform-led coalition would lead to the demise of the Conservative party as we know it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,133

    Nigelb said:

    a

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Last thread was a hoot, cannot wait to hear more from "THE FALCON" when he awakens from his stupour.

    And verily, See that His Sublime Grace LEONDAMUS, Lord Paramount of Camden, Warden of the Primrose Hill Borders, Commander of the Mighty Herd, He Who Rides The Unbridled Thunder, Surveyor of the PB Wastes and Whisperer to Kings, the Master known as Al-Saqr to the Desert Arabs, as Shahin to the Dusky Persians, and as THE FALCON to us all…

    is awake. And maybe having a coffee
    If you need a sidekick, I'm always happy to play The Tit
    You do yourself down. Try calling yourself "The Merlin". Our smallest hawk. But damn it, good enough to power the Spitfire...
    Also the Bolton Paul Defiant; armament pointing backwards, disastrous in the daytime once the enemy knew what was up and reduced to lurking in the night hoping to bag a prize.
    And a load of useless to mediocre Faireys.
    Merlin engines also powered America's best fighter, the Mustang, which gave the allies aerial superiority then supremacy over Europe. The Mustang's original engines had been no good but the Merlin fixed that. One of the key features of the war was allied cooperation and cross-fertilisation in arms development and manufacture. The axis powers never had that.
    The Allison V-1710 was actually more powerful than the Merlin. Up to 15,000 feet Mustangs equipped with it were actually a bit faster.

    Above 15k, the issue was the supercharger. The design of the Mustang hadn’t included a turbocharger, mostly for cost/simplicity reasons. The USAF preferred turbochargers for high altitude work.

    So the Alison was left with a single stage supercharger in the Mustang. Hence the change to the Merlin with a two stage supercharger.

    IIRC the RAF used Alison engines Mustangs until the end of the war, for low level ground attack.
    The engineering development of performance piston engines during WWII, with the available technology of the 40s, was actually pretty amazing.
    Combined with the fuel. By the end of the war, fuel had become so specialised that it was very difficult for the Germans to run captured aircraft on their fuel. The Allies had less problems, but still couldn’t run German aircraft at full power for all but the briefest times.

    The 150 octane (and higher) were witches brews that only vaguely resembled “petrol”.
    I used to consider jet engines as incredibly complex. And they are. But in WW2, they were actually simpler in many ways than the contemporary piston engines. Take the Rolls Royce Crecy - and incredibly complex and promising two-strike engine that started development in 1941, and which was cancelled in 1946 without being flown.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Royce_Crecy

    In comparison, the Wellend jet engine, used in the Meteor, took about four years between development starting and first flight, despite Rover having been involved in its development for a couple of years and it being a new technology.

    If you could make materials that could withstand the temperatures, the jet engines were in many ways simpler.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,182
    Play to restart at 12.40.

    ATM!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,025

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:

    "I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."

    Goodbye to All That
    https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/goodbye-to-all-that

    Good Lord, that was a depressing read :(
    I know. 'Organization'. 'Fervor'. 🤮
    Your allergy to American English spellings, used by an American, is a bizarre phobia.
    It's getting to stage where America should be partitioned between Canada and Mexico.
    That would give LG two sets of spellings to angst about.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,668

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
    On those figures Starmer(?) would require Kemi, Davey and the SNP. Farage would only need Kemi OR Davey.
    Can't see Davey getting involved with either Tories or Reform.
    Yes so most likely a Reform government propped up by the Kemi led Tories and the same applies if Jenrick became Tory leader.

    If Cleverly or Stride became Tory leader not impossible they could back Starmer over Farage though, in return for some fiscal conservatism on tax and spend but again Starmer could then have problems with his backbenchers
    Supporting a Reform 'government', or, even worse, being part of a Reform-led coalition would lead to the demise of the Conservative party as we know it.
    Would it? Supporting a Labour minority government would be more likely to do that I would have thought.

    Though yes any support for either wouldn't be via coalition but confidence and supply and voting on each bill on its own merits
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,415

    Wow. Good start for the new Observer to have uncovered all this.
    I read and enjoyed the salt path partly because I spend so much time in Devon and know the places she describes. Pretty sure we were there when they walked through.
    I have always been suspicious about elements of the story. The name, Moth, is never explained, nor related as a nickname. The illness being alleviated in a classic alternative medicine way too.

    The book(s) have undoubtedly changed their lives and would not have done quite so well if the truth was told (assuming the Observer is correct).

    The other element is that we all tell stories about our personal history and sometimes come to believe the myths. I had a friend at uni who told lies all the time, including about events I was with him. I have no doubt he believed what he said, even though it couldn’t be true. He used to tell of watching Leeds United with a mate with a motorbike, my friend riding pillion. The tales imploded somewhat when said motorbikes came to Swindon vs Leeds with my friend and I and asked him ‘ have you been to watch Leeds before?’

    It’s possible that Wynn, or Taylor or whoever she is has come to believe her version of events. Or she could be a cold hearted fraudster on the male who has hit the jackpot…
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,412
    Some amusing scenes on Twitter of Trumpists asking Grok if Trump's bill will only cut medical and and welfare for "the migrants and illegals", and then being nonplussed, abd confounded by the response. Quite a few seems to be in a quandary between tech worship and Trump cultistry now.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,442
    DavidL said:

    fitalass said:

    37 years ago today since the Piper Alpha disaster. My Dad was working off shore in the North Sea at the time but he was away on a short holiday with my Mum and my sister and I were both at home house/cat and dog sitting for them. We had neither the radio or the TV on that day, but I always remember the phone started ringing as old friends of my Dad who didn't realise which rig he worked on or that he was on shore started phoning to check in with him and their relief when they discovered he was away on holiday. I think it was about the third random phonecall from an old friend of his when I said right what is going on and why is everyone suddenly phoning to check in on my Dad today.

    I had moved from Aberdeen the year before to take up a nursing job in Edinburgh, but one of my best friends was on duty at Aberdeen Royal Infirmary when the news came in and the hospital went into emergency mode in preparation for a large amount of incoming casualties and she still talks about the utter shock and sadness that overwhelmed the staff on duty there that day when those casualties didn't materialise as the enormity of the tragedy unfolded.

    I had my interview for my first job offshore on the day after Piper Alpha.

    60 were due to be interviewed. 12 of us turned up.

    We all got jobs

    I had been with Chevron about a week. An horrific introduction to the North Sea oil and gas industry.
    I have spent my whole career in the shadow of that night. It was utterly transformative for the oil industry around the world.... except the USA.

    It may be little consolation to the relatives of those who died but it is undoubtedly the case that many times that number have worked in safety because of the changes wrought by Piper Alpha.
    And, dare I say it, the changes driven by the lawyers and the insurers as a result of the unbelievable fiscal cost of the disaster. The fees for the lawyers were frankly obscene. My firm gave some of our fees to the families, it simply seemed unconscionable to us.
    The Cullen report to my mind harked back to some of those great Royal Commissions of the 19th centry that did so much to improve health and safety in our factories and cities. It was a masterful piece of work and, more importantly, the Government took it on wholesale. It was so well done that the Norwegian's, on whom Cullen had based a lot of his recommendations, adopted it themselves, as did almost every other country in the world with an offshore industry.

    Sadly the one obvious exception was the USA. Hence Mercondo.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,794

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
    On those figures Starmer(?) would require Kemi, Davey and the SNP. Farage would only need Kemi OR Davey.
    Can't see Davey getting involved with either Tories or Reform.
    Yes so most likely a Reform government propped up by the Kemi led Tories and the same applies if Jenrick became Tory leader.

    If Cleverly or Stride became Tory leader not impossible they could back Starmer over Farage though, in return for some fiscal conservatism on tax and spend but again Starmer could then have problems with his backbenchers
    Supporting a Reform 'government', or, even worse, being part of a Reform-led coalition would lead to the demise of the Conservative party as we know it.
    Are you suggesting it would cease to be a divided, unpopular, backstabbing party without principles, policies or talent? Sounds like a good thing to me.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,412
    A typo festival there, *and*, *seem* to be, that should ofcourse say there.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,839

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    To be honest, the More In Common MRP before the GE last year was Labour 430, Conservatives 126, LDs 52 so make of this (and that) what you will.

    Like most other pollsters, MiC missed out local swings and changes so this MRP needs to have some salt (and popcorn) added for digestion.

    I struggle with Labour on 126 simply because Labour haven't been below 200 in any election since 1945 and the concentrated nature of their vote makes me think they'll always have a solid number of seats in London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle and elsewhere.

    The Conservatives might draw some comfort from being slightly ahead of the LDs but again I'd question that on what might be both an actual 2.5% swing from Con to LD but also Reform tearing further chunks out of the Conservative vote but we'll see.

    Badenoch is going to be facing some awkward questions as the election approaches if the numbers are as they are - would she support a minority Reform administration and what would be the nature of that support? As the LDs discovered, once you nump, you're likely to lose more supporters than you gain.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,880
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:

    "I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."

    Goodbye to All That
    https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/goodbye-to-all-that

    Good Lord, that was a depressing read :(
    I know. 'Organization'. 'Fervor'. 🤮
    Your allergy to American English spellings, used by an American, is a bizarre phobia.
    It's getting to stage where America should be partitioned between Canada and Mexico.
    That would give LG two sets of spellings to angst about.
    The bit given to Canada will be part of the Commonwealth ;)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,350

    fitalass said:

    37 years ago today since the Piper Alpha disaster. My Dad was working off shore in the North Sea at the time but he was away on a short holiday with my Mum and my sister and I were both at home house/cat and dog sitting for them. We had neither the radio or the TV on that day, but I always remember the phone started ringing as old friends of my Dad who didn't realise which rig he worked on or that he was on shore started phoning to check in with him and their relief when they discovered he was away on holiday. I think it was about the third random phonecall from an old friend of his when I said right what is going on and why is everyone suddenly phoning to check in on my Dad today.

    I had moved from Aberdeen the year before to take up a nursing job in Edinburgh, but one of my best friends was on duty at Aberdeen Royal Infirmary when the news came in and the hospital went into emergency mode in preparation for a large amount of incoming casualties and she still talks about the utter shock and sadness that overwhelmed the staff on duty there that day when those casualties didn't materialise as the enormity of the tragedy unfolded.

    I had my interview for my first job offshore on the day after Piper Alpha.

    60 were due to be interviewed. 12 of us turned up.

    We all got jobs

    I had been with Chevron about a week. An horrific introduction to the North Sea oil and gas industry.
    I have spent my whole career in the shadow of that night. It was utterly transformative for the oil industry around the world.... except the USA.

    It may be little consolation to the relatives of those who died but it is undoubtedly the case that many times that number have worked in safety because of the changes wrought by Piper Alpha.
    We can only hope that the same level of lessons are learned from Covid.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,182
    Play's started at Edgbaston.

    Tipping down here, though!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,668
    edited July 6
    stodge said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    To be honest, the More In Common MRP before the GE last year was Labour 430, Conservatives 126, LDs 52 so make of this (and that) what you will.

    Like most other pollsters, MiC missed out local swings and changes so this MRP needs to have some salt (and popcorn) added for digestion.

    I struggle with Labour on 126 simply because Labour haven't been below 200 in any election since 1945 and the concentrated nature of their vote makes me think they'll always have a solid number of seats in London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle and elsewhere.

    The Conservatives might draw some comfort from being slightly ahead of the LDs but again I'd question that on what might be both an actual 2.5% swing from Con to LD but also Reform tearing further chunks out of the Conservative vote but we'll see.

    Badenoch is going to be facing some awkward questions as the election approaches if the numbers are as they are - would she support a minority Reform administration and what would be the nature of that support? As the LDs discovered, once you nump, you're likely to lose more supporters than you gain.
    Most 2010 LD voters preferred a Labour led government to a Conservative led government, most current Conservative voters prefer a Refom led government to a Labour led government so a different context.

    Badenoch would also likely only give confidence and supply to Reform rather than form a full coalition with them as Clegg did with the Tories
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,545
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The atmosphere of live sport is why we go.

    The atmosphere at a Formula 1 track is naff
    It wasn't in the 80s.
    Today's Google Doodle is Silverstone btw.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,431

    fitalass said:

    37 years ago today since the Piper Alpha disaster. My Dad was working off shore in the North Sea at the time but he was away on a short holiday with my Mum and my sister and I were both at home house/cat and dog sitting for them. We had neither the radio or the TV on that day, but I always remember the phone started ringing as old friends of my Dad who didn't realise which rig he worked on or that he was on shore started phoning to check in with him and their relief when they discovered he was away on holiday. I think it was about the third random phonecall from an old friend of his when I said right what is going on and why is everyone suddenly phoning to check in on my Dad today.

    I had moved from Aberdeen the year before to take up a nursing job in Edinburgh, but one of my best friends was on duty at Aberdeen Royal Infirmary when the news came in and the hospital went into emergency mode in preparation for a large amount of incoming casualties and she still talks about the utter shock and sadness that overwhelmed the staff on duty there that day when those casualties didn't materialise as the enormity of the tragedy unfolded.

    I had my interview for my first job offshore on the day after Piper Alpha.

    60 were due to be interviewed. 12 of us turned up.

    We all got jobs

    I had been with Chevron about a week. An horrific introduction to the North Sea oil and gas industry.
    That was the company my Dad was working for in the North Sea back then.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,415
    Scott_xP said:

    The atmosphere of live sport is why we go.

    The atmosphere at a Formula 1 track is naff
    Well it’s not a sport, is it?😃
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,880
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:

    "I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."

    Goodbye to All That
    https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/goodbye-to-all-that

    Good Lord, that was a depressing read :(
    I know. 'Organization'. 'Fervor'. 🤮
    Your allergy to American English spellings, used by an American, is a bizarre phobia.
    It's getting to stage where America should be partitioned between Canada and Mexico.
    More like Canada, Mexico and Russia
    Ah, yes, you are right. Forgot about Alaska :blush:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,880

    Play's started at Edgbaston.

    Tipping down here, though!

    Dry so far here!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,880
    Scott_xP said:

    The atmosphere of live sport is why we go.

    The atmosphere at a Formula 1 track is naff
    Yeah, all that air pollution!

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,504

    Nigelb said:

    a

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Last thread was a hoot, cannot wait to hear more from "THE FALCON" when he awakens from his stupour.

    And verily, See that His Sublime Grace LEONDAMUS, Lord Paramount of Camden, Warden of the Primrose Hill Borders, Commander of the Mighty Herd, He Who Rides The Unbridled Thunder, Surveyor of the PB Wastes and Whisperer to Kings, the Master known as Al-Saqr to the Desert Arabs, as Shahin to the Dusky Persians, and as THE FALCON to us all…

    is awake. And maybe having a coffee
    If you need a sidekick, I'm always happy to play The Tit
    You do yourself down. Try calling yourself "The Merlin". Our smallest hawk. But damn it, good enough to power the Spitfire...
    Also the Bolton Paul Defiant; armament pointing backwards, disastrous in the daytime once the enemy knew what was up and reduced to lurking in the night hoping to bag a prize.
    And a load of useless to mediocre Faireys.
    Merlin engines also powered America's best fighter, the Mustang, which gave the allies aerial superiority then supremacy over Europe. The Mustang's original engines had been no good but the Merlin fixed that. One of the key features of the war was allied cooperation and cross-fertilisation in arms development and manufacture. The axis powers never had that.
    The Allison V-1710 was actually more powerful than the Merlin. Up to 15,000 feet Mustangs equipped with it were actually a bit faster.

    Above 15k, the issue was the supercharger. The design of the Mustang hadn’t included a turbocharger, mostly for cost/simplicity reasons. The USAF preferred turbochargers for high altitude work.

    So the Alison was left with a single stage supercharger in the Mustang. Hence the change to the Merlin with a two stage supercharger.

    IIRC the RAF used Alison engines Mustangs until the end of the war, for low level ground attack.
    The engineering development of performance piston engines during WWII, with the available technology of the 40s, was actually pretty amazing.
    Combined with the fuel. By the end of the war, fuel had become so specialised that it was very difficult for the Germans to run captured aircraft on their fuel. The Allies had less problems, but still couldn’t run German aircraft at full power for all but the briefest times.

    The 150 octane (and higher) were witches brews that only vaguely resembled “petrol”.
    I used to consider jet engines as incredibly complex. And they are. But in WW2, they were actually simpler in many ways than the contemporary piston engines. Take the Rolls Royce Crecy - and incredibly complex and promising two-strike engine that started development in 1941, and which was cancelled in 1946 without being flown.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Royce_Crecy

    In comparison, the Wellend jet engine, used in the Meteor, took about four years between development starting and first flight, despite Rover having been involved in its development for a couple of years and it being a new technology.

    If you could make materials that could withstand the temperatures, the jet engines were in many ways simpler.
    A big thing that gets missed is vibration and noise. A two thousand horsepower engine rattled the fighter it was in. Literally into bits. It also had a massive effect on pilot alertness and perception. After the war, some studies on vibration and motion revealed that the effects on judgement and action could be profound.

    By contrast, the jets, right from the start, were smooth and relatively quiet.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,350
    Pope gone...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,611
    stodge said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    To be honest, the More In Common MRP before the GE last year was Labour 430, Conservatives 126, LDs 52 so make of this (and that) what you will.

    Like most other pollsters, MiC missed out local swings and changes so this MRP needs to have some salt (and popcorn) added for digestion.

    I struggle with Labour on 126 simply because Labour haven't been below 200 in any election since 1945 and the concentrated nature of their vote makes me think they'll always have a solid number of seats in London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle and elsewhere.

    The Conservatives might draw some comfort from being slightly ahead of the LDs but again I'd question that on what might be both an actual 2.5% swing from Con to LD but also Reform tearing further chunks out of the Conservative vote but we'll see.

    Badenoch is going to be facing some awkward questions as the election approaches if the numbers are as they are - would she support a minority Reform administration and what would be the nature of that support? As the LDs discovered, once you nump, you're likely to lose more supporters than you gain.
    To large extent, it doesn't really matter what she says because, if by some miracle she isn't unhorsed by the next GE, she will be out on her arse straight after if she loses another 40 seats.

    The obvious move for the tories is no formal coalition but support a Fukker King's Speech, let them flail around trying to govern as an impotent minority administration and then bring down the government when the polls look favourable.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,504

    DavidL said:

    fitalass said:

    37 years ago today since the Piper Alpha disaster. My Dad was working off shore in the North Sea at the time but he was away on a short holiday with my Mum and my sister and I were both at home house/cat and dog sitting for them. We had neither the radio or the TV on that day, but I always remember the phone started ringing as old friends of my Dad who didn't realise which rig he worked on or that he was on shore started phoning to check in with him and their relief when they discovered he was away on holiday. I think it was about the third random phonecall from an old friend of his when I said right what is going on and why is everyone suddenly phoning to check in on my Dad today.

    I had moved from Aberdeen the year before to take up a nursing job in Edinburgh, but one of my best friends was on duty at Aberdeen Royal Infirmary when the news came in and the hospital went into emergency mode in preparation for a large amount of incoming casualties and she still talks about the utter shock and sadness that overwhelmed the staff on duty there that day when those casualties didn't materialise as the enormity of the tragedy unfolded.

    I had my interview for my first job offshore on the day after Piper Alpha.

    60 were due to be interviewed. 12 of us turned up.

    We all got jobs

    I had been with Chevron about a week. An horrific introduction to the North Sea oil and gas industry.
    I have spent my whole career in the shadow of that night. It was utterly transformative for the oil industry around the world.... except the USA.

    It may be little consolation to the relatives of those who died but it is undoubtedly the case that many times that number have worked in safety because of the changes wrought by Piper Alpha.
    And, dare I say it, the changes driven by the lawyers and the insurers as a result of the unbelievable fiscal cost of the disaster. The fees for the lawyers were frankly obscene. My firm gave some of our fees to the families, it simply seemed unconscionable to us.
    The Cullen report to my mind harked back to some of those great Royal Commissions of the 19th centry that did so much to improve health and safety in our factories and cities. It was a masterful piece of work and, more importantly, the Government took it on wholesale. It was so well done that the Norwegian's, on whom Cullen had based a lot of his recommendations, adopted it themselves, as did almost every other country in the world with an offshore industry.

    Sadly the one obvious exception was the USA. Hence Mercondo.
    Where is his like today? And the likes of Warnock?

    Giants…
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,019
    Pope out
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,182
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    To be honest, the More In Common MRP before the GE last year was Labour 430, Conservatives 126, LDs 52 so make of this (and that) what you will.

    Like most other pollsters, MiC missed out local swings and changes so this MRP needs to have some salt (and popcorn) added for digestion.

    I struggle with Labour on 126 simply because Labour haven't been below 200 in any election since 1945 and the concentrated nature of their vote makes me think they'll always have a solid number of seats in London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle and elsewhere.

    The Conservatives might draw some comfort from being slightly ahead of the LDs but again I'd question that on what might be both an actual 2.5% swing from Con to LD but also Reform tearing further chunks out of the Conservative vote but we'll see.

    Badenoch is going to be facing some awkward questions as the election approaches if the numbers are as they are - would she support a minority Reform administration and what would be the nature of that support? As the LDs discovered, once you nump, you're likely to lose more supporters than you gain.
    Most 2010 LD voters preferred a Labour led government to a Conservative led government, most current Conservative voters prefer a Refom led government to a Labour led government so a different context.

    Badenoch would also likely only give confidence and supply to Reform rather than form a full coalition with them as Clegg did with the Tories
    The 2010 Government did a lot of things wrong.... NHS reform, scrapping Sure-Start, for example, but it lasted reasonably securely and without many unforced changes for the full term.
    Sadly the Conservatives decided to turn on their allies as opposed to the Opposition.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,668
    edited July 6

    Pope out

    That was quick, he has only been in post less than 2 months
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,350
    Deaath toll in Texas floods now up to 43.

    Seems the weather service has been gutted by Trump/DOGE. So they can dismantle the people making Americans aware of the threat of global warming.

    In a just world, Trump would never recover from these actions.

    In a just world...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,153
    edited July 6
    Staffordshire Reform ... er ... "answering" questions, two months in. Do they have the skills to "mark your homework"?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qq2qTe4qybU

    (Slight trigger warning, this is a RefUK scrutiny feed called Political Custard, which spends its time pointing out problems.)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,292
    Oh dear.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,041

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
    On those figures Starmer(?) would require Kemi, Davey and the SNP. Farage would only need Kemi OR Davey.
    Can't see Davey getting involved with either Tories or Reform.
    Yes so most likely a Reform government propped up by the Kemi led Tories and the same applies if Jenrick became Tory leader.

    If Cleverly or Stride became Tory leader not impossible they could back Starmer over Farage though, in return for some fiscal conservatism on tax and spend but again Starmer could then have problems with his backbenchers
    Supporting a Reform 'government', or, even worse, being part of a Reform-led coalition would lead to the demise of the Conservative party as we know it.
    Supporting either Reform, or Labour, would land them in trouble.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,292
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
    On those figures Starmer(?) would require Kemi, Davey and the SNP. Farage would only need Kemi OR Davey.
    Can't see Davey getting involved with either Tories or Reform.
    Yes so most likely a Reform government propped up by the Kemi led Tories and the same applies if Jenrick became Tory leader.

    If Cleverly or Stride became Tory leader not impossible they could back Starmer over Farage though, in return for some fiscal conservatism on tax and spend but again Starmer could then have problems with his backbenchers
    Supporting a Reform 'government', or, even worse, being part of a Reform-led coalition would lead to the demise of the Conservative party as we know it.
    Supporting either Reform, or Labour, would land them in trouble.
    Yup, it's surely just sit quietly and let Reform implode as a minority government and then be ready to pick up the pieces as a "grown up" party.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,467
    edited July 6
    stodge said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    To be honest, the More In Common MRP before the GE last year was Labour 430, Conservatives 126, LDs 52 so make of this (and that) what you will.

    Like most other pollsters, MiC missed out local swings and changes so this MRP needs to have some salt (and popcorn) added for digestion.

    I struggle with Labour on 126 simply because Labour haven't been below 200 in any election since 1945 and the concentrated nature of their vote makes me think they'll always have a solid number of seats in London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle and elsewhere.

    The Conservatives might draw some comfort from being slightly ahead of the LDs but again I'd question that on what might be both an actual 2.5% swing from Con to LD but also Reform tearing further chunks out of the Conservative vote but we'll see.

    Badenoch is going to be facing some awkward questions as the election approaches if the numbers are as they are - would she support a minority Reform administration and what would be the nature of that support? As the LDs discovered, once you nump, you're likely to lose more supporters than you gain.
    Assuming the LDs retain all of the lent GTTO votes they picked up in 2024 then a universal swing of 2.5% picks up about 5 Tory seats. It will entirely depend where the votes are being picked up and lost. I suspect the Tories are losing more in the North and Midlands than the South.
    In any case at 28, 22, 21, 15, 8 a very small swing dramatically alters the outcome - 1 percent swing from reform to both Lab and Con and it all looks very different or another 1 percent Con to LD and its down to fourth for Con
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,065
    HYUFD said:

    Pope out

    That was quick, he has only been in post less than 2 months
    Even John Paul I managed 33 days, before the British press could run with a "Pope does again" headline.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,025
    edited July 6
    .

    Nigelb said:

    a

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Last thread was a hoot, cannot wait to hear more from "THE FALCON" when he awakens from his stupour.

    And verily, See that His Sublime Grace LEONDAMUS, Lord Paramount of Camden, Warden of the Primrose Hill Borders, Commander of the Mighty Herd, He Who Rides The Unbridled Thunder, Surveyor of the PB Wastes and Whisperer to Kings, the Master known as Al-Saqr to the Desert Arabs, as Shahin to the Dusky Persians, and as THE FALCON to us all…

    is awake. And maybe having a coffee
    If you need a sidekick, I'm always happy to play The Tit
    You do yourself down. Try calling yourself "The Merlin". Our smallest hawk. But damn it, good enough to power the Spitfire...
    Also the Bolton Paul Defiant; armament pointing backwards, disastrous in the daytime once the enemy knew what was up and reduced to lurking in the night hoping to bag a prize.
    And a load of useless to mediocre Faireys.
    Merlin engines also powered America's best fighter, the Mustang, which gave the allies aerial superiority then supremacy over Europe. The Mustang's original engines had been no good but the Merlin fixed that. One of the key features of the war was allied cooperation and cross-fertilisation in arms development and manufacture. The axis powers never had that.
    The Allison V-1710 was actually more powerful than the Merlin. Up to 15,000 feet Mustangs equipped with it were actually a bit faster.

    Above 15k, the issue was the supercharger. The design of the Mustang hadn’t included a turbocharger, mostly for cost/simplicity reasons. The USAF preferred turbochargers for high altitude work.

    So the Alison was left with a single stage supercharger in the Mustang. Hence the change to the Merlin with a two stage supercharger.

    IIRC the RAF used Alison engines Mustangs until the end of the war, for low level ground attack.
    The engineering development of performance piston engines during WWII, with the available technology of the 40s, was actually pretty amazing.
    Combined with the fuel. By the end of the war, fuel had become so specialised that it was very difficult for the Germans to run captured aircraft on their fuel. The Allies had less problems, but still couldn’t run German aircraft at full power for all but the briefest times.

    The 150 octane (and higher) were witches brews that only vaguely resembled “petrol”.
    I used to consider jet engines as incredibly complex. And they are. But in WW2, they were actually simpler in many ways than the contemporary piston engines. Take the Rolls Royce Crecy - and incredibly complex and promising two-strike engine that started development in 1941, and which was cancelled in 1946 without being flown.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Royce_Crecy

    I wonder if that could be revived, using modern materials, for this sort of thing ?

    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/air-space-magazine/worlds-fastest-piston-airplane-180969509/

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_racing

    Note the turbocharged version featured a half scale version of Whittle's jet engine.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,467
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
    On those figures Starmer(?) would require Kemi, Davey and the SNP. Farage would only need Kemi OR Davey.
    Can't see Davey getting involved with either Tories or Reform.
    Yes so most likely a Reform government propped up by the Kemi led Tories and the same applies if Jenrick became Tory leader.

    If Cleverly or Stride became Tory leader not impossible they could back Starmer over Farage though, in return for some fiscal conservatism on tax and spend but again Starmer could then have problems with his backbenchers
    Supporting a Reform 'government', or, even worse, being part of a Reform-led coalition would lead to the demise of the Conservative party as we know it.
    Supporting either Reform, or Labour, would land them in trouble.
    Yup, it's surely just sit quietly and let Reform implode as a minority government and then be ready to pick up the pieces as a "grown up" party.
    Yep. 'You've tried the rest now reelect the best' style
    Note - pithy nonsense phrases not an endorsement
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,292

    stodge said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    To be honest, the More In Common MRP before the GE last year was Labour 430, Conservatives 126, LDs 52 so make of this (and that) what you will.

    Like most other pollsters, MiC missed out local swings and changes so this MRP needs to have some salt (and popcorn) added for digestion.

    I struggle with Labour on 126 simply because Labour haven't been below 200 in any election since 1945 and the concentrated nature of their vote makes me think they'll always have a solid number of seats in London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle and elsewhere.

    The Conservatives might draw some comfort from being slightly ahead of the LDs but again I'd question that on what might be both an actual 2.5% swing from Con to LD but also Reform tearing further chunks out of the Conservative vote but we'll see.

    Badenoch is going to be facing some awkward questions as the election approaches if the numbers are as they are - would she support a minority Reform administration and what would be the nature of that support? As the LDs discovered, once you nump, you're likely to lose more supporters than you gain.
    Assuming the LDs retain all of the lent GTTO votes they picked up in 2024 then a universal swing of 2.5% picks up about 5 Tory seats. It will entirely depend where the votes are being picked up and lost. I suspect the Tories are losing more in the North and Midlands than the South.
    In any case at 28, 22, 21, 15, 8 a very small swing dramatically alters the outcome - 1 percent swing from reform to both Lab and Con and it all looks very different or another 1 percent Con to LD and its down to fourth for Con
    But why would they retain the anti-tory vote in 2029 when it's much more likely that the nation will be split down the anti-reform and anti-labour lines. Those voters aren't anywhere close to being guaranteed to vote Lib Dem, especially in seats which look like either Labour or Reform aren't in contention so there's little to no tactical voting.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,065

    DavidL said:

    fitalass said:

    37 years ago today since the Piper Alpha disaster. My Dad was working off shore in the North Sea at the time but he was away on a short holiday with my Mum and my sister and I were both at home house/cat and dog sitting for them. We had neither the radio or the TV on that day, but I always remember the phone started ringing as old friends of my Dad who didn't realise which rig he worked on or that he was on shore started phoning to check in with him and their relief when they discovered he was away on holiday. I think it was about the third random phonecall from an old friend of his when I said right what is going on and why is everyone suddenly phoning to check in on my Dad today.

    I had moved from Aberdeen the year before to take up a nursing job in Edinburgh, but one of my best friends was on duty at Aberdeen Royal Infirmary when the news came in and the hospital went into emergency mode in preparation for a large amount of incoming casualties and she still talks about the utter shock and sadness that overwhelmed the staff on duty there that day when those casualties didn't materialise as the enormity of the tragedy unfolded.

    I had my interview for my first job offshore on the day after Piper Alpha.

    60 were due to be interviewed. 12 of us turned up.

    We all got jobs

    I had been with Chevron about a week. An horrific introduction to the North Sea oil and gas industry.
    I have spent my whole career in the shadow of that night. It was utterly transformative for the oil industry around the world.... except the USA.

    It may be little consolation to the relatives of those who died but it is undoubtedly the case that many times that number have worked in safety because of the changes wrought by Piper Alpha.
    And, dare I say it, the changes driven by the lawyers and the insurers as a result of the unbelievable fiscal cost of the disaster. The fees for the lawyers were frankly obscene. My firm gave some of our fees to the families, it simply seemed unconscionable to us.
    The Cullen report to my mind harked back to some of those great Royal Commissions of the 19th centry that did so much to improve health and safety in our factories and cities. It was a masterful piece of work and, more importantly, the Government took it on wholesale. It was so well done that the Norwegian's, on whom Cullen had based a lot of his recommendations, adopted it themselves, as did almost every other country in the world with an offshore industry.

    Sadly the one obvious exception was the USA. Hence Mercondo.
    Where is his like today? And the likes of Warnock?

    Giants…
    We've got Louise Casey, who is blooming good, but (sadly) awfully busy.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,467
    edited July 6
    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    To be honest, the More In Common MRP before the GE last year was Labour 430, Conservatives 126, LDs 52 so make of this (and that) what you will.

    Like most other pollsters, MiC missed out local swings and changes so this MRP needs to have some salt (and popcorn) added for digestion.

    I struggle with Labour on 126 simply because Labour haven't been below 200 in any election since 1945 and the concentrated nature of their vote makes me think they'll always have a solid number of seats in London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle and elsewhere.

    The Conservatives might draw some comfort from being slightly ahead of the LDs but again I'd question that on what might be both an actual 2.5% swing from Con to LD but also Reform tearing further chunks out of the Conservative vote but we'll see.

    Badenoch is going to be facing some awkward questions as the election approaches if the numbers are as they are - would she support a minority Reform administration and what would be the nature of that support? As the LDs discovered, once you nump, you're likely to lose more supporters than you gain.
    Assuming the LDs retain all of the lent GTTO votes they picked up in 2024 then a universal swing of 2.5% picks up about 5 Tory seats. It will entirely depend where the votes are being picked up and lost. I suspect the Tories are losing more in the North and Midlands than the South.
    In any case at 28, 22, 21, 15, 8 a very small swing dramatically alters the outcome - 1 percent swing from reform to both Lab and Con and it all looks very different or another 1 percent Con to LD and its down to fourth for Con
    But why would they retain the anti-tory vote in 2029 when it's much more likely that the nation will be split down the anti-reform and anti-labour lines. Those voters aren't anywhere close to being guaranteed to vote Lib Dem, especially in seats which look like either Labour or Reform aren't in contention so there's little to no tactical voting.
    That's kind of my point. Ive said many times I expect some tactical unwind in the blue wall but I was pointing out here that even absent that unwind its a tough ask for the LDs to pick up many more Tory seats on these voting figures
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,023

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
    On those figures Starmer(?) would require Kemi, Davey and the SNP. Farage would only need Kemi OR Davey.
    Can't see Davey getting involved with either Tories or Reform.
    Yes so most likely a Reform government propped up by the Kemi led Tories and the same applies if Jenrick became Tory leader.

    If Cleverly or Stride became Tory leader not impossible they could back Starmer over Farage though, in return for some fiscal conservatism on tax and spend but again Starmer could then have problems with his backbenchers
    Supporting a Reform 'government', or, even worse, being part of a Reform-led coalition would lead to the demise of the Conservative party as we know it.
    A Reform government really would crash the market given how fantastical their tax and spending plans are. The Tories, after Truss, can't be associated with a second disaster.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,880

    Deaath toll in Texas floods now up to 43.

    Seems the weather service has been gutted by Trump/DOGE. So they can dismantle the people making Americans aware of the threat of global warming.

    In a just world, Trump would never recover from these actions.

    In a just world...

    51 dead according to SKY.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,880

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
    On those figures Starmer(?) would require Kemi, Davey and the SNP. Farage would only need Kemi OR Davey.
    Can't see Davey getting involved with either Tories or Reform.
    Yes so most likely a Reform government propped up by the Kemi led Tories and the same applies if Jenrick became Tory leader.

    If Cleverly or Stride became Tory leader not impossible they could back Starmer over Farage though, in return for some fiscal conservatism on tax and spend but again Starmer could then have problems with his backbenchers
    Supporting a Reform 'government', or, even worse, being part of a Reform-led coalition would lead to the demise of the Conservative party as we know it.
    Supporting either Reform, or Labour, would land them in trouble.
    Yup, it's surely just sit quietly and let Reform implode as a minority government and then be ready to pick up the pieces as a "grown up" party.
    Yep. 'You've tried the rest now reelect the best' style
    Note - pithy nonsense phrases not an endorsement
    Am reminded of a sign on a builders' van in Brum.

    "The Singh Brothers: You've tried the cowboys, now try the Indians..."
    "We're glad to say, we're in the UK
    Indian batsmen can bat all day"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,025

    DavidL said:

    fitalass said:

    37 years ago today since the Piper Alpha disaster. My Dad was working off shore in the North Sea at the time but he was away on a short holiday with my Mum and my sister and I were both at home house/cat and dog sitting for them. We had neither the radio or the TV on that day, but I always remember the phone started ringing as old friends of my Dad who didn't realise which rig he worked on or that he was on shore started phoning to check in with him and their relief when they discovered he was away on holiday. I think it was about the third random phonecall from an old friend of his when I said right what is going on and why is everyone suddenly phoning to check in on my Dad today.

    I had moved from Aberdeen the year before to take up a nursing job in Edinburgh, but one of my best friends was on duty at Aberdeen Royal Infirmary when the news came in and the hospital went into emergency mode in preparation for a large amount of incoming casualties and she still talks about the utter shock and sadness that overwhelmed the staff on duty there that day when those casualties didn't materialise as the enormity of the tragedy unfolded.

    I had my interview for my first job offshore on the day after Piper Alpha.

    60 were due to be interviewed. 12 of us turned up.

    We all got jobs

    I had been with Chevron about a week. An horrific introduction to the North Sea oil and gas industry.
    I have spent my whole career in the shadow of that night. It was utterly transformative for the oil industry around the world.... except the USA.

    It may be little consolation to the relatives of those who died but it is undoubtedly the case that many times that number have worked in safety because of the changes wrought by Piper Alpha.
    And, dare I say it, the changes driven by the lawyers and the insurers as a result of the unbelievable fiscal cost of the disaster. The fees for the lawyers were frankly obscene. My firm gave some of our fees to the families, it simply seemed unconscionable to us.
    The Cullen report to my mind harked back to some of those great Royal Commissions of the 19th centry that did so much to improve health and safety in our factories and cities. It was a masterful piece of work and, more importantly, the Government took it on wholesale. It was so well done that the Norwegian's, on whom Cullen had based a lot of his recommendations, adopted it themselves, as did almost every other country in the world with an offshore industry.

    Sadly the one obvious exception was the USA. Hence Mercondo.
    Notably, the public enquiry took two years to report.
    That would likely be at least half a decade now ?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,587
    HYUFD said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
    Not really. Reform on 290 seats makes it very hard to form an alternative government. Lab + Con + LDM + GRN + SNP = 329 which is a very small majority for a five-party coalition, and you'd never get those five parties all working together to support a government.

    Even Lab + Con + LDM would only be 280.

    Farage becomes PM, but do the Tories do a deal for confidence and supply, or precipitate another GE soon afterwards?

    The interesting party there is the Lib Dems. Only +1 seat. I sometimes think they will see GE2024 as a missed opportunity, where they should have leapfrogged the Tories to become the official opposition.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,025

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:

    "I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."

    Goodbye to All That
    https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/goodbye-to-all-that

    Good Lord, that was a depressing read :(
    I know. 'Organization'. 'Fervor'. 🤮
    Your allergy to American English spellings, used by an American, is a bizarre phobia.
    It's getting to stage where America should be partitioned between Canada and Mexico.
    That would give LG two sets of spellings to angst about.
    The bit given to Canada will be part of the Commonwealth ;)
    Canadian spelling is already something of a mix of English and American usage. It would become even more so.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,065
    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    To be honest, the More In Common MRP before the GE last year was Labour 430, Conservatives 126, LDs 52 so make of this (and that) what you will.

    Like most other pollsters, MiC missed out local swings and changes so this MRP needs to have some salt (and popcorn) added for digestion.

    I struggle with Labour on 126 simply because Labour haven't been below 200 in any election since 1945 and the concentrated nature of their vote makes me think they'll always have a solid number of seats in London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle and elsewhere.

    The Conservatives might draw some comfort from being slightly ahead of the LDs but again I'd question that on what might be both an actual 2.5% swing from Con to LD but also Reform tearing further chunks out of the Conservative vote but we'll see.

    Badenoch is going to be facing some awkward questions as the election approaches if the numbers are as they are - would she support a minority Reform administration and what would be the nature of that support? As the LDs discovered, once you nump, you're likely to lose more supporters than you gain.
    Assuming the LDs retain all of the lent GTTO votes they picked up in 2024 then a universal swing of 2.5% picks up about 5 Tory seats. It will entirely depend where the votes are being picked up and lost. I suspect the Tories are losing more in the North and Midlands than the South.
    In any case at 28, 22, 21, 15, 8 a very small swing dramatically alters the outcome - 1 percent swing from reform to both Lab and Con and it all looks very different or another 1 percent Con to LD and its down to fourth for Con
    But why would they retain the anti-tory vote in 2029 when it's much more likely that the nation will be split down the anti-reform and anti-labour lines. Those voters aren't anywhere close to being guaranteed to vote Lib Dem, especially in seats which look like either Labour or Reform aren't in contention so there's little to no tactical voting.
    Two counterpoints.

    1 It's the Lib Dems. Once they get a toe (poking out of their sandals) hold in a constituency, they are bloody hard to shift. Last time, it took them being in government.

    2 A lot of those GTTO voters are people who habitually voted Labour in constituencies where the traditional split was C60 LD25 L15 or thereabouts. Whilst there initial jump may have been motivated by GTTO, Starmer's Year One has probably driven them further into the arms of their new yellow friends.

    (If I were looking for a Conservative fightback, it would be in seats where Labour were beneficiaries of GTTO clumping.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,025

    Deaath toll in Texas floods now up to 43.

    Seems the weather service has been gutted by Trump/DOGE. So they can dismantle the people making Americans aware of the threat of global warming.

    In a just world, Trump would never recover from these actions.

    In a just world...

    Accounts are not entirely clear, as it appears the NWS, while signify underestimating the forecast rainfall, did send out weather alerts.

    But this sort of stuff is patent bullshit.

    Reporter: Why was the national weather service not pinging their phones before 7.. Was it a fundamental failure of the federal government’s responsibility to keep us safe?

    Noem: Trump is currently upgrading the technology in the national weather service.. we needed to renew this ancient system that has been left in place with the federal government

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1941600458730315789



  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,122

    So are we going to see any rain delays at Edgbaston today or will it all have passed before play is due to start?

    Looks like there might be the odd shower of no consequence...
    ...and yet they have seventy-two seats

  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,922

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
    On those figures Starmer(?) would require Kemi, Davey and the SNP. Farage would only need Kemi OR Davey.
    Can't see Davey getting involved with either Tories or Reform.
    Yes so most likely a Reform government propped up by the Kemi led Tories and the same applies if Jenrick became Tory leader.

    If Cleverly or Stride became Tory leader not impossible they could back Starmer over Farage though, in return for some fiscal conservatism on tax and spend but again Starmer could then have problems with his backbenchers
    Supporting a Reform 'government', or, even worse, being part of a Reform-led coalition would lead to the demise of the Conservative party as we know it.
    Supporting either Reform, or Labour, would land them in trouble.
    Yup, it's surely just sit quietly and let Reform implode as a minority government and then be ready to pick up the pieces as a "grown up" party.
    Yep. 'You've tried the rest now reelect the best' style
    Note - pithy nonsense phrases not an endorsement
    Am reminded of a sign on a builders' van in Brum.

    "The Singh Brothers: You've tried the cowboys, now try the Indians..."
    "We're glad to say, we're in the UK
    Indian batsmen can bat all day"
    They won’t need to bat at all today. England won’t be batting all day either, at this rate.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,922

    HYUFD said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
    Not really. Reform on 290 seats makes it very hard to form an alternative government. Lab + Con + LDM + GRN + SNP = 329 which is a very small majority for a five-party coalition, and you'd never get those five parties all working together to support a government.

    Even Lab + Con + LDM would only be 280.

    Farage becomes PM, but do the Tories do a deal for confidence and supply, or precipitate another GE soon afterwards?

    The interesting party there is the Lib Dems. Only +1 seat. I sometimes think they will see GE2024 as a missed opportunity, where they should have leapfrogged the Tories to become the official opposition.
    It could be that after the next election, whoever forms the Government will have to get their policies through on a case by case basis. It will be good practice for when PR is introduced.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,726
    HYUFD said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
    There is no way on earth Starmer becomes PM again on those numbers. You are looking at Ref with Con CandS.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,504
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    a

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Last thread was a hoot, cannot wait to hear more from "THE FALCON" when he awakens from his stupour.

    And verily, See that His Sublime Grace LEONDAMUS, Lord Paramount of Camden, Warden of the Primrose Hill Borders, Commander of the Mighty Herd, He Who Rides The Unbridled Thunder, Surveyor of the PB Wastes and Whisperer to Kings, the Master known as Al-Saqr to the Desert Arabs, as Shahin to the Dusky Persians, and as THE FALCON to us all…

    is awake. And maybe having a coffee
    If you need a sidekick, I'm always happy to play The Tit
    You do yourself down. Try calling yourself "The Merlin". Our smallest hawk. But damn it, good enough to power the Spitfire...
    Also the Bolton Paul Defiant; armament pointing backwards, disastrous in the daytime once the enemy knew what was up and reduced to lurking in the night hoping to bag a prize.
    And a load of useless to mediocre Faireys.
    Merlin engines also powered America's best fighter, the Mustang, which gave the allies aerial superiority then supremacy over Europe. The Mustang's original engines had been no good but the Merlin fixed that. One of the key features of the war was allied cooperation and cross-fertilisation in arms development and manufacture. The axis powers never had that.
    The Allison V-1710 was actually more powerful than the Merlin. Up to 15,000 feet Mustangs equipped with it were actually a bit faster.

    Above 15k, the issue was the supercharger. The design of the Mustang hadn’t included a turbocharger, mostly for cost/simplicity reasons. The USAF preferred turbochargers for high altitude work.

    So the Alison was left with a single stage supercharger in the Mustang. Hence the change to the Merlin with a two stage supercharger.

    IIRC the RAF used Alison engines Mustangs until the end of the war, for low level ground attack.
    The engineering development of performance piston engines during WWII, with the available technology of the 40s, was actually pretty amazing.
    Combined with the fuel. By the end of the war, fuel had become so specialised that it was very difficult for the Germans to run captured aircraft on their fuel. The Allies had less problems, but still couldn’t run German aircraft at full power for all but the briefest times.

    The 150 octane (and higher) were witches brews that only vaguely resembled “petrol”.
    I used to consider jet engines as incredibly complex. And they are. But in WW2, they were actually simpler in many ways than the contemporary piston engines. Take the Rolls Royce Crecy - and incredibly complex and promising two-strike engine that started development in 1941, and which was cancelled in 1946 without being flown.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Royce_Crecy

    I wonder if that could be revived, using modern materials, for this sort of thing ?

    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/air-space-magazine/worlds-fastest-piston-airplane-180969509/

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_racing

    Note the turbocharged version featured a half scale version of Whittle's jet engine.
    Building 3-4000hp piston engines at useful weights is an incredibly expensive development process. With a high rate of failure.

    The moment the piston engine died was when Rolls engineers realised that the prototype Whittle engine was already putting out more hp/lb than the latest Merlin.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,668

    HYUFD said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
    Not really. Reform on 290 seats makes it very hard to form an alternative government. Lab + Con + LDM + GRN + SNP = 329 which is a very small majority for a five-party coalition, and you'd never get those five parties all working together to support a government.

    Even Lab + Con + LDM would only be 280.

    Farage becomes PM, but do the Tories do a deal for confidence and supply, or precipitate another GE soon afterwards?

    The interesting party there is the Lib Dems. Only +1 seat. I sometimes think they will see GE2024 as a missed opportunity, where they should have leapfrogged the Tories to become the official opposition.
    Even then Farage could not get any legislation through without Tory support.

    With most seats he would likely lead a minority Reform government but he would have to bargain for every Bill
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,065
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM
    Not really. Reform on 290 seats makes it very hard to form an alternative government. Lab + Con + LDM + GRN + SNP = 329 which is a very small majority for a five-party coalition, and you'd never get those five parties all working together to support a government.

    Even Lab + Con + LDM would only be 280.

    Farage becomes PM, but do the Tories do a deal for confidence and supply, or precipitate another GE soon afterwards?

    The interesting party there is the Lib Dems. Only +1 seat. I sometimes think they will see GE2024 as a missed opportunity, where they should have leapfrogged the Tories to become the official opposition.
    Even then Farage could not get any legislation through without Tory support.

    With most seats he would likely lead a minority Reform government but he would have to bargain for every Bill
    Though there's quite a lot a determined government can do without passing any laws, it's not easy to see a Farage government coping well with the give-and-take of minority.

    (But yes, stepping aside is the best plan for the Conservatives in that scenario. To actively back anyone will be to die at the next election. "Kingmaker" may sound good, but "Muggins" is more accurate.)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,042

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    To be honest, the More In Common MRP before the GE last year was Labour 430, Conservatives 126, LDs 52 so make of this (and that) what you will.

    Like most other pollsters, MiC missed out local swings and changes so this MRP needs to have some salt (and popcorn) added for digestion.

    I struggle with Labour on 126 simply because Labour haven't been below 200 in any election since 1945 and the concentrated nature of their vote makes me think they'll always have a solid number of seats in London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle and elsewhere.

    The Conservatives might draw some comfort from being slightly ahead of the LDs but again I'd question that on what might be both an actual 2.5% swing from Con to LD but also Reform tearing further chunks out of the Conservative vote but we'll see.

    Badenoch is going to be facing some awkward questions as the election approaches if the numbers are as they are - would she support a minority Reform administration and what would be the nature of that support? As the LDs discovered, once you nump, you're likely to lose more supporters than you gain.
    Assuming the LDs retain all of the lent GTTO votes they picked up in 2024 then a universal swing of 2.5% picks up about 5 Tory seats. It will entirely depend where the votes are being picked up and lost. I suspect the Tories are losing more in the North and Midlands than the South.
    In any case at 28, 22, 21, 15, 8 a very small swing dramatically alters the outcome - 1 percent swing from reform to both Lab and Con and it all looks very different or another 1 percent Con to LD and its down to fourth for Con
    But why would they retain the anti-tory vote in 2029 when it's much more likely that the nation will be split down the anti-reform and anti-labour lines. Those voters aren't anywhere close to being guaranteed to vote Lib Dem, especially in seats which look like either Labour or Reform aren't in contention so there's little to no tactical voting.
    That's kind of my point. Ive said many times I expect some tactical unwind in the blue wall but I was pointing out here that even absent that unwind its a tough ask for the LDs to pick up many more Tory seats on these voting figures
    With incumbency (i.e. proven they can win) and with an unpopular government, it will be easier for LD MPs to win over Labour supporters in their seats, than it was last time.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,042
    edited July 6
    Meanwhile, I am now into Nordland, and it’s a bright mostly sunny afternoon after a wet overnight and morning.

    Sunset time today is 0032 (tomorrow) and sunrise will be at 0145.


  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,467
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    To be honest, the More In Common MRP before the GE last year was Labour 430, Conservatives 126, LDs 52 so make of this (and that) what you will.

    Like most other pollsters, MiC missed out local swings and changes so this MRP needs to have some salt (and popcorn) added for digestion.

    I struggle with Labour on 126 simply because Labour haven't been below 200 in any election since 1945 and the concentrated nature of their vote makes me think they'll always have a solid number of seats in London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle and elsewhere.

    The Conservatives might draw some comfort from being slightly ahead of the LDs but again I'd question that on what might be both an actual 2.5% swing from Con to LD but also Reform tearing further chunks out of the Conservative vote but we'll see.

    Badenoch is going to be facing some awkward questions as the election approaches if the numbers are as they are - would she support a minority Reform administration and what would be the nature of that support? As the LDs discovered, once you nump, you're likely to lose more supporters than you gain.
    Assuming the LDs retain all of the lent GTTO votes they picked up in 2024 then a universal swing of 2.5% picks up about 5 Tory seats. It will entirely depend where the votes are being picked up and lost. I suspect the Tories are losing more in the North and Midlands than the South.
    In any case at 28, 22, 21, 15, 8 a very small swing dramatically alters the outcome - 1 percent swing from reform to both Lab and Con and it all looks very different or another 1 percent Con to LD and its down to fourth for Con
    But why would they retain the anti-tory vote in 2029 when it's much more likely that the nation will be split down the anti-reform and anti-labour lines. Those voters aren't anywhere close to being guaranteed to vote Lib Dem, especially in seats which look like either Labour or Reform aren't in contention so there's little to no tactical voting.
    That's kind of my point. Ive said many times I expect some tactical unwind in the blue wall but I was pointing out here that even absent that unwind its a tough ask for the LDs to pick up many more Tory seats on these voting figures
    With incumbency (i.e. proven they can win) and with an unpopular government, it will be easier for LD MPs to win over Labour supporters in their seats, than it was last time.
    That will add weight on the other side of the scales for sure. Time will tell which side weighs more (as will the national picture at the time of course)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,568
    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:

    "I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."

    Goodbye to All That
    https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/goodbye-to-all-that

    Good Lord, that was a depressing read :(
    The political capture of both law enforcement and the justice system is happening very rapidly, and far more blatantly than even I expected.
    But at least it’s being captured by the right side. By American patriots

    In the UK that capture is being done by people, agencies, cultures - that actively hate the UK
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,412
    Tomorrow, Uranus enters Gemini for the first time since the mid-1940's. .
    If one was set any stock by the views of astrologers, which I suspect the majority on PB wouldn't, it would be a new era of change in technology and communications, and a general speeding-up.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,153
    edited July 6
    Nigelb said:

    Deaath toll in Texas floods now up to 43.

    Seems the weather service has been gutted by Trump/DOGE. So they can dismantle the people making Americans aware of the threat of global warming.

    In a just world, Trump would never recover from these actions.

    In a just world...

    Accounts are not entirely clear, as it appears the NWS, while signify underestimating the forecast rainfall, did send out weather alerts.

    But this sort of stuff is patent bullshit.

    Reporter: Why was the national weather service not pinging their phones before 7.. Was it a fundamental failure of the federal government’s responsibility to keep us safe?

    Noem: Trump is currently upgrading the technology in the national weather service.. we needed to renew this ancient system that has been left in place with the federal government

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1941600458730315789
    Accounts *are* entirely clear :smile: , Noem is trying "but look at the squirrel" dishonest self-serving arse-covering bollocks.

    She is complicit in a desire to destroy federal emergency organisations, and Trump's other cuts such as gutting of the weather service.

    The NWS was able to deliver warnings last year; it can't this year because they cut it to ribbons 3-4 months ago.

    Here is an AP report from February 25:


    WASHINGTON (AP) — Hundreds of weather forecasters and other federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration employees on probationary status were fired Thursday, lawmakers and weather experts said.

    Federal workers who were not let go said the afternoon layoffs included meteorologists who do crucial local forecasts in National Weather Service offices across the country
    ....
    Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said on social media that the job cuts “are spectacularly short-sighted, and ultimately will deal a major self-inflicted wound to the public safety of Americans and the resiliency of the American economy to weather and climate-related disasters.”


    https://apnews.com/article/national-weather-service-layoffs-trump-doge-a65360a1eb2500b7d47c9c966e383f4a

    I posted a couple of video links earlier, which set it in the context of Noem's previous enthusiastic statements about destroying FEMA et al.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,128
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:

    "I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."

    Goodbye to All That
    https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/goodbye-to-all-that

    Good Lord, that was a depressing read :(
    The political capture of both law enforcement and the justice system is happening very rapidly, and far more blatantly than even I expected.
    But at least it’s being captured by the right side. By American patriots

    In the UK that capture is being done by people, agencies, cultures - that actively hate the UK
    A true American patriot would be someone who respected the US Constitution, and was glad the US won the Civil War and World War II.

    Not someone who hates the US Constitution (besides the 2nd Amendment), and flies the flag of America's enemy in either the Civil War or WWII.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,412
    If one was *to* set any stock, that should ofcourse be, there.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,568

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:

    "I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."

    Goodbye to All That
    https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/goodbye-to-all-that

    Good Lord, that was a depressing read :(
    The political capture of both law enforcement and the justice system is happening very rapidly, and far more blatantly than even I expected.
    But at least it’s being captured by the right side. By American patriots

    In the UK that capture is being done by people, agencies, cultures - that actively hate the UK
    A true American patriot would be someone who respected the US Constitution, and was glad the US won the Civil War and World War II.

    Not someone who hates the US Constitution (besides the 2nd Amendment), and flies the flag of America's enemy in either the Civil War or WWII.
    Meh
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,350
    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    Deaath toll in Texas floods now up to 43.

    Seems the weather service has been gutted by Trump/DOGE. So they can dismantle the people making Americans aware of the threat of global warming.

    In a just world, Trump would never recover from these actions.

    In a just world...

    Accounts are not entirely clear, as it appears the NWS, while signify underestimating the forecast rainfall, did send out weather alerts.

    But this sort of stuff is patent bullshit.

    Reporter: Why was the national weather service not pinging their phones before 7.. Was it a fundamental failure of the federal government’s responsibility to keep us safe?

    Noem: Trump is currently upgrading the technology in the national weather service.. we needed to renew this ancient system that has been left in place with the federal government

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1941600458730315789
    Accounts *are* entirely clear :smile: , Noem is trying "but look at the squirrel" dishonest self-serving arse-covering bollocks.

    She is complicit in a desire to destroy federal emergency organisations, and Trump's other cuts such as gutting of the weather service.

    The NWS was able to deliver warnings last year; it can't this year because they cut it to ribbons 3-4 months ago.

    Here is an AP report from February 25:


    WASHINGTON (AP) — Hundreds of weather forecasters and other federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration employees on probationary status were fired Thursday, lawmakers and weather experts said.

    Federal workers who were not let go said the afternoon layoffs included meteorologists who do crucial local forecasts in National Weather Service offices across the country
    ....
    Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said on social media that the job cuts “are spectacularly short-sighted, and ultimately will deal a major self-inflicted wound to the public safety of Americans and the resiliency of the American economy to weather and climate-related disasters.”


    https://apnews.com/article/national-weather-service-layoffs-trump-doge-a65360a1eb2500b7d47c9c966e383f4a

    I posted a couple of video links earlier, which set it in the context of Noem's previous enthusiastic statements about destroying FEMA et al.
    Of course, these deaths will be the rounding error on the rounding error of the deaths caused by 17m losing their Medicaidentitlement .

    Ah, but fuck 'em, they're poor.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,880
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:

    "I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."

    Goodbye to All That
    https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/goodbye-to-all-that

    Good Lord, that was a depressing read :(
    The political capture of both law enforcement and the justice system is happening very rapidly, and far more blatantly than even I expected.
    But at least it’s being captured by the right side. By American patriots

    In the UK that capture is being done by people, agencies, cultures - that actively hate the UK
    Er, Reform don't actively hate the UK, do they?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,041
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:

    "I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."

    Goodbye to All That
    https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/goodbye-to-all-that

    Good Lord, that was a depressing read :(
    The political capture of both law enforcement and the justice system is happening very rapidly, and far more blatantly than even I expected.
    But at least it’s being captured by the right side. By American patriots

    In the UK that capture is being done by people, agencies, cultures - that actively hate the UK
    I shouldn't bother with the UK side of culture wars. The efficient troll should concentrate on winding people up by pretending to admire Trump.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,726
    edited July 6
    ...

    kjh said:

    Taz said:

    Phillipson is a bit crabby and tetchy on LauraK this morning.

    Pressure. Pushing down on me.

    I'm not a fan, but she seems to be doing very well to me. Not sure she is saying anything but very calm, quick speaking, not a single 'um', corrected a mis-speak very quickly. Really good at thinking on her feet.

    She is a good speaker other than it is far too fast.
    The BBC national treasure Laura Kuennsberg hates all Labour scumbags, she'll get the better of her by hook or by crook.

    And why has Kuennsberg added the half-witted Paddy O'Connell to her already unlistenable and moronic podcast?
    The hate for Kuennsberg among left wing men is remarkable. I don't really pay her much attention but I've never seen a coherent explanation of what is so bad about her.
    Stephen Flynn called Johnson "a liar", Kuennsberg despite evidence in the public domain to the contrary defended Johnson with a retort of "that is some charge".

    On the other hand this week she has written a withering criticism of Starmer's incompetence on the BBC News webpages. Now in the latter case she is not wrong, but where is the BBC's famed non partisanship where Kuennsberg is concerned?

    I note you received two "likes" so far for that post. Well done!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,924
    This government is just so stupid.

    Kinnick warns or wealth taxes 4 months ahead of a budget so the wealthy can depart these shores even faster.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,041

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:

    "I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."

    Goodbye to All That
    https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/goodbye-to-all-that

    Good Lord, that was a depressing read :(
    The political capture of both law enforcement and the justice system is happening very rapidly, and far more blatantly than even I expected.
    But at least it’s being captured by the right side. By American patriots

    In the UK that capture is being done by people, agencies, cultures - that actively hate the UK
    A true American patriot would be someone who respected the US Constitution, and was glad the US won the Civil War and World War II.

    Not someone who hates the US Constitution (besides the 2nd Amendment), and flies the flag of America's enemy in either the Civil War or WWII.
    The problem with MAGA is that they adore (some of), America’s enemies, whilst hating 45% of America’s population.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,880

    Tomorrow, Uranus enters Gemini for the first time since the mid-1940's. .
    If one was set any stock by the views of astrologers, which I suspect the majority on PB wouldn't, it would be a new era of change in technology and communications, and a general speeding-up.

    Bollocks! The planet Uranus is in Taurus at the moment.

    https://theskylive.com/uranus-info#:~:text=Uranus is in the constellation of Taurus, at,(apparent coordinates). The magnitude of Uranus is 5.83.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,924
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:

    "I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."

    Goodbye to All That
    https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/goodbye-to-all-that

    Good Lord, that was a depressing read :(
    The political capture of both law enforcement and the justice system is happening very rapidly, and far more blatantly than even I expected.
    But at least it’s being captured by the right side. By American patriots

    In the UK that capture is being done by people, agencies, cultures - that actively hate the UK
    A true American patriot would be someone who respected the US Constitution, and was glad the US won the Civil War and World War II.

    Not someone who hates the US Constitution (besides the 2nd Amendment), and flies the flag of America's enemy in either the Civil War or WWII.
    The problem with MAGA is that they adore (some of), America’s enemies, whilst hating 45% of America’s population.
    Same applies to Labour
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,096
    Just rejoice at that news!

    https://derechadiario.com.ar/us/argentina/econometrica-announced-76-year-on-year-growth-in-the-second-quarter

    Econométrica projects that the Argentine economy grew by 7.6% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,662

    This government is just so stupid.

    Kinnick warns or wealth taxes 4 months ahead of a budget so the wealthy can depart these shores even faster.

    There won't be a wealth tax. The Budget will 'just' be an extension on the income tax thresholds freeze for two years (worth around £14bn in total?) plus some tinkering maybe increased levy on banks, stamp duty loading on second properties up to 8% like Scotland, maybe a few more % CGT that's it.

    I don't think Rachel or Keir are going to try anything more radical now notwithstanding their HUGE majority.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,568

    This government is just so stupid.

    Kinnick warns or wealth taxes 4 months ahead of a budget so the wealthy can depart these shores even faster.

    Kinnock is just trying to play left wing politics - it needs to be shut down because they simply don't work...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,292

    Just rejoice at that news!

    https://derechadiario.com.ar/us/argentina/econometrica-announced-76-year-on-year-growth-in-the-second-quarter

    Econométrica projects that the Argentine economy grew by 7.6% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025

    But cutting state spending, welfare and regulation doesn't work in the real world, it's all nonsense and any country who tries it will fail. I hope that other Latin American countries look hard at Argentina and follow suit, cut tariffs, cut regulations, cut welfare and chop government spending. Inflation down, growth up, poverty down and the currency is almost at a free float after decades of black market rates and all that nonsense.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,924

    This government is just so stupid.

    Kinnick warns or wealth taxes 4 months ahead of a budget so the wealthy can depart these shores even faster.

    There won't be a wealth tax. The Budget will 'just' be an extension on the income tax thresholds freeze for two years (worth around £14bn in total?) plus some tinkering maybe increased levy on banks, stamp duty loading on second properties up to 8% like Scotland, maybe a few more % CGT that's it.

    I don't think Rachel or Keir are going to try anything more radical now notwithstanding their HUGE majority.
    The outriders floating policies will still make the wealthy think theyre in for a kicking. Its as stupid as Reeves talking up taxes rises this time last year and creating her own crisis. These people have learned nothing.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,412

    Tomorrow, Uranus enters Gemini for the first time since the mid-1940's. .
    If one was set any stock by the views of astrologers, which I suspect the majority on PB wouldn't, it would be a new era of change in technology and communications, and a general speeding-up.

    Bollocks! The planet Uranus is in Taurus at the moment.

    https://theskylive.com/uranus-info#:~:text=Uranus is in the constellation of Taurus, at,(apparent coordinates). The magnitude of Uranus is 5.83.
    Changes tomorrow.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,391
    Some years ago, I was struck by the similarity of polls in the US and UK: A large majority of Republicans thought the US was a good nation -- with some flaws, but about half of Democrats thought it was a bad nation -- with some redeeming features. The results in the UK were very similar, most Conservatives thinking the UK was a good nation, and a large number of Labour supporters disagreeing.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,153

    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    Deaath toll in Texas floods now up to 43.

    Seems the weather service has been gutted by Trump/DOGE. So they can dismantle the people making Americans aware of the threat of global warming.

    In a just world, Trump would never recover from these actions.

    In a just world...

    Accounts are not entirely clear, as it appears the NWS, while signify underestimating the forecast rainfall, did send out weather alerts.

    But this sort of stuff is patent bullshit.

    Reporter: Why was the national weather service not pinging their phones before 7.. Was it a fundamental failure of the federal government’s responsibility to keep us safe?

    Noem: Trump is currently upgrading the technology in the national weather service.. we needed to renew this ancient system that has been left in place with the federal government

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1941600458730315789
    Accounts *are* entirely clear :smile: , Noem is trying "but look at the squirrel" dishonest self-serving arse-covering bollocks.

    She is complicit in a desire to destroy federal emergency organisations, and Trump's other cuts such as gutting of the weather service.

    The NWS was able to deliver warnings last year; it can't this year because they cut it to ribbons 3-4 months ago.

    Here is an AP report from February 25:


    WASHINGTON (AP) — Hundreds of weather forecasters and other federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration employees on probationary status were fired Thursday, lawmakers and weather experts said.

    Federal workers who were not let go said the afternoon layoffs included meteorologists who do crucial local forecasts in National Weather Service offices across the country
    ....
    Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said on social media that the job cuts “are spectacularly short-sighted, and ultimately will deal a major self-inflicted wound to the public safety of Americans and the resiliency of the American economy to weather and climate-related disasters.”


    https://apnews.com/article/national-weather-service-layoffs-trump-doge-a65360a1eb2500b7d47c9c966e383f4a

    I posted a couple of video links earlier, which set it in the context of Noem's previous enthusiastic statements about destroying FEMA et al.
    Of course, these deaths will be the rounding error on the rounding error of the deaths caused by 17m losing their Medicaidentitlement .

    Ah, but fuck 'em, they're poor.
    The Medicaid deaths are themselves likely to be a rounding error on the numbers who will die because Trump has terminated multiple wordwide vaccination programmes via closing down USAID.

    GAVI has been seriously damaged, for example. TBF, the UK 40% cuts are part of this.
    https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/latest/us-makes-deadly-decision-withdraw-funding-gavi
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/jun/25/scientists-criticise-cut-in-uk-funding-for-global-vaccination-group

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,847

    This government is just so stupid.

    Kinnick warns or wealth taxes 4 months ahead of a budget so the wealthy can depart these shores even faster.

    There won't be a wealth tax. The Budget will 'just' be an extension on the income tax thresholds freeze for two years (worth around £14bn in total?) plus some tinkering maybe increased levy on banks, stamp duty loading on second properties up to 8% like Scotland, maybe a few more % CGT that's it.

    I don't think Rachel or Keir are going to try anything more radical now notwithstanding their HUGE majority.
    The outriders floating policies will still make the wealthy think theyre in for a kicking. Its as stupid as Reeves talking up taxes rises this time last year and creating her own crisis. These people have learned nothing.
    Not the 'wealthy' but people public sector leftists think are wealthy - anyone with a DC pension pot of over $400k for example - or they think are tax dodging - anyone using salary sacrifice for their pension.
  • MustaphaMondeoMustaphaMondeo Posts: 329
    It’s weird reading this site on government finance.

    Tax destroys money.
    Government spending creates money.
    A pound only exists while it is circulating.

    We need tax or we get inflation.
    We need spending or we all live and die badly.

    All we need to do is tax the wealthy to prevent them driving inflation and to spend on infrastructure and need. The churn between the two functions will keep the economy rolling along.

    And never listen to economists telling you that banks create wealth.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,847
    eek said:

    This government is just so stupid.

    Kinnick warns or wealth taxes 4 months ahead of a budget so the wealthy can depart these shores even faster.

    Kinnock is just trying to play left wing politics - it needs to be shut down because they simply don't work...
    Reform council tax.

    Bands A to Z.

    Continuing the £160k band increments would give a band Z of £3.2 million and over.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,977
    ...

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:

    "I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."

    Goodbye to All That
    https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/goodbye-to-all-that

    Good Lord, that was a depressing read :(
    The political capture of both law enforcement and the justice system is happening very rapidly, and far more blatantly than even I expected.
    But at least it’s being captured by the right side. By American patriots

    In the UK that capture is being done by people, agencies, cultures - that actively hate the UK
    A true American patriot would be someone who respected the US Constitution, and was glad the US won the Civil War and World War II.

    Not someone who hates the US Constitution (besides the 2nd Amendment), and flies the flag of America's enemy in either the Civil War or WWII.
    I don't know if you can really call flying the Confederate flag flying the flag of America's enemy. It was part of America.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,391
    Chuckle: Vanilla, knowing where I am, thinks I should have spelled the party name, "Labor".
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,977
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    Deaath toll in Texas floods now up to 43.

    Seems the weather service has been gutted by Trump/DOGE. So they can dismantle the people making Americans aware of the threat of global warming.

    In a just world, Trump would never recover from these actions.

    In a just world...

    Accounts are not entirely clear, as it appears the NWS, while signify underestimating the forecast rainfall, did send out weather alerts.

    But this sort of stuff is patent bullshit.

    Reporter: Why was the national weather service not pinging their phones before 7.. Was it a fundamental failure of the federal government’s responsibility to keep us safe?

    Noem: Trump is currently upgrading the technology in the national weather service.. we needed to renew this ancient system that has been left in place with the federal government

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1941600458730315789
    Accounts *are* entirely clear :smile: , Noem is trying "but look at the squirrel" dishonest self-serving arse-covering bollocks.

    She is complicit in a desire to destroy federal emergency organisations, and Trump's other cuts such as gutting of the weather service.

    The NWS was able to deliver warnings last year; it can't this year because they cut it to ribbons 3-4 months ago.

    Here is an AP report from February 25:


    WASHINGTON (AP) — Hundreds of weather forecasters and other federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration employees on probationary status were fired Thursday, lawmakers and weather experts said.

    Federal workers who were not let go said the afternoon layoffs included meteorologists who do crucial local forecasts in National Weather Service offices across the country
    ....
    Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said on social media that the job cuts “are spectacularly short-sighted, and ultimately will deal a major self-inflicted wound to the public safety of Americans and the resiliency of the American economy to weather and climate-related disasters.”


    https://apnews.com/article/national-weather-service-layoffs-trump-doge-a65360a1eb2500b7d47c9c966e383f4a

    I posted a couple of video links earlier, which set it in the context of Noem's previous enthusiastic statements about destroying FEMA et al.
    Of course, these deaths will be the rounding error on the rounding error of the deaths caused by 17m losing their Medicaidentitlement .

    Ah, but fuck 'em, they're poor.
    The Medicaid deaths are themselves likely to be a rounding error on the numbers who will die because Trump has terminated multiple wordwide vaccination programmes via closing down USAID.

    GAVI has been seriously damaged, for example. TBF, the UK 40% cuts are part of this.
    https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/latest/us-makes-deadly-decision-withdraw-funding-gavi
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/jun/25/scientists-criticise-cut-in-uk-funding-for-global-vaccination-group

    I hear a lot of outrage here about the shutdown of US aid programmes, but in the UK, we are now spending roughly a quarter of our ODA budget on asylum acommodation within the UK. That represents a vast number of overseas programmes shut down and people suffering. If on the other hand it hasn't affected people that much, then what was the aid budget for anyway?

    I would expect taking money away from the world's most vulnerable and giving it to hotel owners to put up fighting age men would be a cause for concern to anyone with genuine compassion, but it would seem not.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,884
    edited July 6
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MRP goodness from More in Common

    A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
    ➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
    🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
    🌳 CON 81 (-40)
    🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
    🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
    🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
    ⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

    To be honest, the More In Common MRP before the GE last year was Labour 430, Conservatives 126, LDs 52 so make of this (and that) what you will.

    Like most other pollsters, MiC missed out local swings and changes so this MRP needs to have some salt (and popcorn) added for digestion.

    I struggle with Labour on 126 simply because Labour haven't been below 200 in any election since 1945 and the concentrated nature of their vote makes me think they'll always have a solid number of seats in London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle and elsewhere.

    The Conservatives might draw some comfort from being slightly ahead of the LDs but again I'd question that on what might be both an actual 2.5% swing from Con to LD but also Reform tearing further chunks out of the Conservative vote but we'll see.

    Badenoch is going to be facing some awkward questions as the election approaches if the numbers are as they are - would she support a minority Reform administration and what would be the nature of that support? As the LDs discovered, once you nump, you're likely to lose more supporters than you gain.
    Assuming the LDs retain all of the lent GTTO votes they picked up in 2024 then a universal swing of 2.5% picks up about 5 Tory seats. It will entirely depend where the votes are being picked up and lost. I suspect the Tories are losing more in the North and Midlands than the South.
    In any case at 28, 22, 21, 15, 8 a very small swing dramatically alters the outcome - 1 percent swing from reform to both Lab and Con and it all looks very different or another 1 percent Con to LD and its down to fourth for Con
    But why would they retain the anti-tory vote in 2029 when it's much more likely that the nation will be split down the anti-reform and anti-labour lines. Those voters aren't anywhere close to being guaranteed to vote Lib Dem, especially in seats which look like either Labour or Reform aren't in contention so there's little to no tactical voting.
    That's kind of my point. Ive said many times I expect some tactical unwind in the blue wall but I was pointing out here that even absent that unwind its a tough ask for the LDs to pick up many more Tory seats on these voting figures
    With incumbency (i.e. proven they can win) and with an unpopular government, it will be easier for LD MPs to win over Labour supporters in their seats, than it was last time.
    Labour share of vote in Lib Dem seats with the Tories second:

    1997: 15.2%
    2001: 13.3%
    2005: 12.4%

    2024: 9.6%

    Not sure there is much scope for squeezing Labour further.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,754

    Chuckle: Vanilla, knowing where I am, thinks I should have spelled the party name, "Labor".

    Vanilla still doesn't like Starmer, querying it every time. As it did with Miliband, IIRC although it is ok now. Political bias?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,632

    ...

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:

    "I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."

    Goodbye to All That
    https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/goodbye-to-all-that

    Good Lord, that was a depressing read :(
    The political capture of both law enforcement and the justice system is happening very rapidly, and far more blatantly than even I expected.
    But at least it’s being captured by the right side. By American patriots

    In the UK that capture is being done by people, agencies, cultures - that actively hate the UK
    A true American patriot would be someone who respected the US Constitution, and was glad the US won the Civil War and World War II.

    Not someone who hates the US Constitution (besides the 2nd Amendment), and flies the flag of America's enemy in either the Civil War or WWII.
    I don't know if you can really call flying the Confederate flag flying the flag of America's enemy. It was part of America.
    Well: aren't you signalling support for the reasons why the Confederacy ceceeded from the Union?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,754
    Whose turn was it to take Max out this week? They seem to have missed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,568
    The Camp of the Saints is not very good
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,170
    Confederates were enemies of the United States. As are MAGA

    https://www.lincolnsquare.media/p/one-big-beautiful-bill-the-picketts
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,726
    Leon said:

    The Camp of the Saints is not very good

    So which saints are the camp saints?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,041

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    Deaath toll in Texas floods now up to 43.

    Seems the weather service has been gutted by Trump/DOGE. So they can dismantle the people making Americans aware of the threat of global warming.

    In a just world, Trump would never recover from these actions.

    In a just world...

    Accounts are not entirely clear, as it appears the NWS, while signify underestimating the forecast rainfall, did send out weather alerts.

    But this sort of stuff is patent bullshit.

    Reporter: Why was the national weather service not pinging their phones before 7.. Was it a fundamental failure of the federal government’s responsibility to keep us safe?

    Noem: Trump is currently upgrading the technology in the national weather service.. we needed to renew this ancient system that has been left in place with the federal government

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1941600458730315789
    Accounts *are* entirely clear :smile: , Noem is trying "but look at the squirrel" dishonest self-serving arse-covering bollocks.

    She is complicit in a desire to destroy federal emergency organisations, and Trump's other cuts such as gutting of the weather service.

    The NWS was able to deliver warnings last year; it can't this year because they cut it to ribbons 3-4 months ago.

    Here is an AP report from February 25:


    WASHINGTON (AP) — Hundreds of weather forecasters and other federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration employees on probationary status were fired Thursday, lawmakers and weather experts said.

    Federal workers who were not let go said the afternoon layoffs included meteorologists who do crucial local forecasts in National Weather Service offices across the country
    ....
    Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said on social media that the job cuts “are spectacularly short-sighted, and ultimately will deal a major self-inflicted wound to the public safety of Americans and the resiliency of the American economy to weather and climate-related disasters.”


    https://apnews.com/article/national-weather-service-layoffs-trump-doge-a65360a1eb2500b7d47c9c966e383f4a

    I posted a couple of video links earlier, which set it in the context of Noem's previous enthusiastic statements about destroying FEMA et al.
    Of course, these deaths will be the rounding error on the rounding error of the deaths caused by 17m losing their Medicaidentitlement .

    Ah, but fuck 'em, they're poor.
    The Medicaid deaths are themselves likely to be a rounding error on the numbers who will die because Trump has terminated multiple wordwide vaccination programmes via closing down USAID.

    GAVI has been seriously damaged, for example. TBF, the UK 40% cuts are part of this.
    https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/latest/us-makes-deadly-decision-withdraw-funding-gavi
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/jun/25/scientists-criticise-cut-in-uk-funding-for-global-vaccination-group

    I hear a lot of outrage here about the shutdown of US aid programmes, but in the UK, we are now spending roughly a quarter of our ODA budget on asylum acommodation within the UK. That represents a vast number of overseas programmes shut down and people suffering. If on the other hand it hasn't affected people that much, then what was the aid budget for anyway?

    I would expect taking money away from the world's most vulnerable and giving it to hotel owners to put up fighting age men would be a cause for concern to anyone with genuine compassion, but it would seem not.

    Surely you aren't suggesting that if it wasn't spent on asylum seekers you think it should be spent on other foreigners?

    How woke.
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