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10 months to go and there is still no Betfair market on the Holyrood election, this is very disappoi

SystemSystem Posts: 12,553
edited July 3 in General
10 months to go and there is still no Betfair market on the Holyrood election, this is very disappointing – politicalbetting.com

NEW: Scottish Political Monitor from @IpsosScotland and @STVNews – SNP out in front on General Election voting intention, on 31%– Labour slide to 22% (-13 points since the GE)– Reform continue to rise, in 3rd place on 16% and well ahead of the Conservatives on 10%? pic.twitter.com/MgW0dO2Tvu

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,857
    edited July 3
    First like India.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,506
    Never mind Scotland, I still can't back Rob J to dethrone Sadiq.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,451
    edited July 3
    At the moment it looks like SNP most seats but a Unionist majority.

    Clearly given the SNP got 47% on the constituency vote in 2021 and 40% on the regional list the fact they are now polling just 34% and 26% suggests it is not only Labour UK 2024 GE voters going Reform but also some SNP 2021 Holyrood voters
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,716
    That last picture - are they wind chimes outside the building?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,048
    theProle said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The answer to Nigel Fucking Farage's ludicrous question, which the Brexiteers won't want to articulate is SOVEREIGNTY, so we can vote the bastards out...

    Not really. I didn't get to vote for (or against) the present Prime Minister, or the CoE, or Health Secretary, or even a junior defence minister. I got
    to vote for (or in my case against) some bovine backbencher who's only apparent function is to troop through the lobbies to do the bidding of his party.
    This is true of at least 75% of the country, and most of the rest only got an option on a junior minister or similar.
    None-the-less, the country looks minded to show them all the door at the next election, because that is how representative democracy works.

    The problem with the EU was different. Some unsackable functionary in the Commission could invent a regulation to require paperclips to be straight, our government would solemnly declare it was a stupid regulation and pass it into UK law anyway, and if we voted our government out the new one would tell us that the paperclip regulations were as unchangable as the laws of the Medes and Persians. What was particularly irksome was that one rather suspected that both shades of government actually wanted straight paperclips anyway, and were just using the EU to sidestep the unpopularity it caused.

    It's worth noting that politicians are still at a variation of this game, but it's now called "International law". We apparently can't deport convicted child molesters because of their right to a family life, or convicted rapists as rape is out of fashion where they came from, and the locals might dispense rough justice. And we can't do this because *international law* says so. Well, parliament is sovereign - time to unmake some laws then...
    Very, very, very well said.

    Absolutely no law, including "international" law, should be above Parliament.

    Parliament must be able to change, democratically, absolutely any law. Without exceptions.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,165
    Interesting that Scottish Labour voters are more Reform inclined than their English equivalents. I guess that's because the SNP soak up more of the woke vote up here?

    Also a cautionary tale for those getting so excited about the collapse of Labour - instead of Farage into Downing Street, you might instead get a Plaid - SNP - Green - Labour rainbow coalition.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,088
    "McSweeney is exercised by the fact that the civil service has 7,000 communications officers, 4,500 of whom work for arm’s-length bodies and quangos and frequently attack what the government is trying to do. Like Dominic Cummings, he is enthused by the possibilities of technology to speed change, such as AI in the NHS or gamers being hired by the Ministry of Defence to fly drones. He is now experimenting with ‘synthetic voters’ – essentially fake focus groups of AI voters who can tell ministers more quickly and cheaply what the public thinks of policies." (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/can-keir-starmer-fend-off-labours-big-beasts/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,587
    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    Bah a new thread.
    Just as we were on the verge of a definitive breakthrough on God and cosmology, too

    Or it’s a new thread because we were on the verge of a definitive breakthrough on God and cosmology
    I am so annoyed at God today.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,381
    edited July 3
    @AnneJGP
    The article from the previous thread was in the New Statesman, written by Sion Simon, published 25 Sept 2007
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,451
    edited July 3
    Eabhal said:

    Interesting that Scottish Labour voters are more Reform inclined than their English equivalents. I guess that's because the SNP soak up more of the woke vote up here?

    Also a cautionary tale for those getting so excited about the collapse of Labour - instead of Farage into Downing Street, you might instead get a Plaid - SNP - Green - Labour rainbow coalition.

    Plus the LDs which would still be better than this Labour majority government
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,093
    Andy_JS said:

    "McSweeney is exercised by the fact that the civil service has 7,000 communications officers, 4,500 of whom work for arm’.s-length bodies and quangos and frequently attack what the government is trying to do. Like Dominic Cummings, he is enthused by the possibilities of technology to speed change, such as AI in the NHS or gamers being hired by the Ministry of Defence to fly drones. He is now experimenting with ‘synthetic voters’ – essentially fake focus groups of AI voters who can tell ministers more quickly and cheaply what the public thinks of policies." (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/can-keir-starmer-fend-off-labours-big-beasts/

    Yes I was worried about that too. It's the technological equivalent of sticking a sock over your hand and asking it questions. Government by Mr Flibble and Lamb Chop. Not good.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,538
    wooliedyed said:

    @AnneJGP
    The article from the previous thread was in the New Statesman, written by Sion Simon, published 25 Sept 2007

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2007/09/labour-majority-increase if you fancy a giggle.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,453
    I can recommend a week of walking in the rhodopes for a huge dose of serenity

    It’s not dramatic like the Dolomites, it’s not flashy like the Alps, but my god it is quiet and tranquil and full of butterflies. One of the most unspoiled corners of Europe

    I’ve done three day-long group walks through lush, sunny and beautiful scenery this week. The number of other walkers encountered? Zero. A big fat zero

    Most of the time you cannot hear any cars. Or indeed any engines. No road noise. Nothing but birdsong and purling streams


  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,138
    HYUFD said:

    At the moment it looks like SNP most seats but a Unionist majority.

    Clearly given the SNP got 47% on the constituency vote in 2021 and 40% on the regional list the fact they are now polling just 34% and 26% suggests it is not only Labour UK 2024 GE voters going Reform but also some SNP 2021 Holyrood voters

    Are all the parties except the SNP unreservedly committed to the Union? Or could one or two of them ..... perhaps the Greens, for example ..... be prepared to consider separation?
    Could going straight back to the EU tempt the LibDems?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,899
    Extraordinarily low birthrates are being recorded in 2025.

    Demographers define "ultra-low fertility" as below 1.3 births/woman -- some 29 countries were that low.

    Countries at ~1.0 or less: Lithuania, Poland, Costa Rica, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Thailand and Singapore.
    https://x.com/MoreBirths/status/1940541818023956663

    Macau at 0.52...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    So we chose to bowl for what reason exactly? So that all the Indians in Birmingham could watch Gill score 250?


  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,381
    Sandpit said:

    So we chose to bowl for what reason exactly? So that all the Indians in Birmingham could watch Gill score 250?


    Got to give them a chance
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,587
    Sandpit said:

    So we chose to bowl for what reason exactly? So that all the Indians in Birmingham could watch Gill score 250?


    Have you not learned from last week?

    Bazball works.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,936
    Shubman Gill is the Rachel Reeves of the Indian team.
    However hard they try, they just can't get rid of him.
    Hope he makes 300.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,896
    dixiedean said:

    Bah a new thread.
    Just as we were on the verge of a definitive breakthrough on God and cosmology, too

    That’s why God decided he should post a new thread.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,587
    England to win this match by an innings, I feel it in my waters.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,936
    Northern_Al said:

    Shubman Gill is the Rachel Reeves of the Indian team.
    However hard they try, they just can't get rid of him.
    Hope he makes 300.

    Whoops. Kiss of death.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    Finally got the fecker. 269.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,532
    FPT @Gallowgate and his perfectly reasonable quibble:
    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    williamglenn said:

    I think Labour have bitten off more than they can chew with this:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/35671855/wes-streeting-more-access-fab-jabs-economy/

    BRITAIN will be “fat free” within a decade, paving the way for tax cuts worth billions of pounds, Wes Streeting declared yesterday.

    People will be fat free or dead if the jabs have some inherent vice only revealed by Streetings mass beta test.
    People have got overweight and under-fit by eating crap between meals - that only builds appetite not stops it - and zero exercise. And there’s some simple cheat that makes them fit and well?

    Nope. God has told us over and over there are no simple “cheats” to wellness and resilience - if you want happiness it must be earned.
    Living in LA, almost everyone is on ozempic. And one of the things I've noticed is that people taking it often cut their drinking back massively, and start exercising. When you are already overweight, exercise is tough and uncomfortable. Once you've lost a few kilograms (thanks to the magic of semiglutide), exercise becomes that much easier.
    I'm pretty thin and I still can't be arsed.
    I'm actually reasonably fit for a 50 year old - I cycled the width of England on Saturday - yet I'm still a massive fat bastard.
    Actually, I saw the number '14' in the 'st' column on the scales this morning for the first time in over a decade. But that's mainly because I've been ill for three days. It'll go back on as soon as I resume eating three meals a day.
    You cycled more than the width: you could have made your life a whole bunch easier by starting at Gretna Green.
    I think I did it as optimally as I could. I reckon it to be 56 miles from Rockcliffe on the Eden estuary (between Carlisle and Gretna) to Wylam on the Tyne estuary west of Newcastle, by the most direct route. Which is pretty much the route I took. Almost all traffic-minimal (tractors more common than cars) and quite a lot of traffic free. Which is a challenge, but a surprisingly short distance given it’s a trip you can practically see on the scale of a globe.
    Plus the four miles or so from Carlisle of Gretna to Rockcliffe at the start (there’s not much in it it terms of which is closer but I chose Carlisle because there is a direct train from Manchester – and indeed from Newcastle), and the ten miles or so from Wylam to Newcastle at the end (you could just get on a train at Wylam but the ten miles is flat and off road and easy). I made it 72 miles in total for the route I went. (Plus 6 miles at the start and end from my home suburb to the relevant Central Manchester stations).
    Enough to feel pleased with yourself but surprisingly doable. I recommend it. You can even choose which way around you do it depending on the wind direction on the day.
    Point of order.
    Wylam is a long way from an estuary.
    And it's 25 miles from the coast.
    Technically, the 'coast' starts where the tidal part of the river starts. On an OS map, this is depicted by the river being bounded by a black line rather than a blue line. Thus, on lists of 'which county has the longest coastline', you get unlikely entrants like 'Cambridgeshire'. The tidal bit of the Tyne - hence the 'estuary' - starts at Wylam, just by Wylam station:
    https://www.bing.com/maps/?cp=54.977184~-1.81471&lvl=13.6&style=s

    I fully accept this isn't what the common man understands by 'the Tyne estuary'.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,451
    OldKingCole said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment it looks like SNP most seats but a Unionist majority.

    Clearly given the SNP got 47% on the constituency vote in 2021 and 40% on the regional list the fact they are now polling just 34% and 26% suggests it is not only Labour UK 2024 GE voters going Reform but also some SNP 2021 Holyrood voters

    Are all the parties except the SNP unreservedly committed to the Union? Or could one or two of them ..... perhaps the Greens, for example ..... be prepared to consider separation?
    Could going straight back to the EU tempt the LibDems?
    Even the SNP plus Greens would not have a Holyrood majority on current polls and if Reform+Tories or Labour+LDs have a majority at Westminster they can ignore the SNP and Greens too.

    The LDs current policy is rejoin a CU, they are not yet even at rejoin EEA let alone full EU
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,012
    O/T, but averaging Yougov, FON, Techne, Opinium, MIC, and BMG, gives;

    Ref 28.8%
    Lab 23.3%
    Con 17.7%
    Lib Dem 13.8%
    Green 9%.

    According to Electoral Calculus, that gives 324 seats for Reform, 164 Labour, 67 Lib Dem, 39 Conservatives, and 5 Greens.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,821
    Sandpit said:

    Finally got the fecker. 269.

    A brilliant innings, 30 fours and 3 sixes and he's a "fecker".....
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,896
    There have been disappointingly few Scotland only polls in the last year. This is the first from Ipsos.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,896
    Independence will unsurprisingly well down the list of Scottish voters’ priorities. Nobody, not even the SNP, are paying it more than lip service. Since Dross’s demise, it hasn’t been raised as often at FMQs.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    Phew, England might get away with shipping fewer than 600 having elected to bowl.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,308
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    Bah a new thread.
    Just as we were on the verge of a definitive breakthrough on God and cosmology, too

    Or it’s a new thread because we were on the verge of a definitive breakthrough on God and cosmology
    I am so annoyed at God today.
    Ben Stokes isn't God
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,927
    Sean_F said:

    O/T, but averaging Yougov, FON, Techne, Opinium, MIC, and BMG, gives;

    Ref 28.8%
    Lab 23.3%
    Con 17.7%
    Lib Dem 13.8%
    Green 9%.

    According to Electoral Calculus, that gives 324 seats for Reform, 164 Labour, 67 Lib Dem, 39 Conservatives, and 5 Greens.

    If the Tories end up the most disadvantaged by our ridiculous voting system, that would be true karma indeed.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,179
    HYUFD said:

    At the moment it looks like SNP most seats but a Unionist majority.

    Clearly given the SNP got 47% on the constituency vote in 2021 and 40% on the regional list the fact they are now polling just 34% and 26% suggests it is not only Labour UK 2024 GE voters going Reform but also some SNP 2021 Holyrood voters

    I would be gobsmacked if the Scottish Green Party stood in more than a handful of constituencies. As their second preferences usually run about 3:1 SNP to SLab there is an inbuilt constituency boost to the SNP at election time.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,896
    HYUFD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment it looks like SNP most seats but a Unionist majority.

    Clearly given the SNP got 47% on the constituency vote in 2021 and 40% on the regional list the fact they are now polling just 34% and 26% suggests it is not only Labour UK 2024 GE voters going Reform but also some SNP 2021 Holyrood voters

    Are all the parties except the SNP unreservedly committed to the Union? Or could one or two of them ..... perhaps the Greens, for example ..... be prepared to consider separation?
    Could going straight back to the EU tempt the LibDems?
    Even the SNP plus Greens would not have a Holyrood majority on current polls and if Reform+Tories or Labour+LDs have a majority at Westminster they can ignore the SNP and Greens too.

    The LDs current policy is rejoin a CU, they are not yet even at rejoin EEA let alone full EU
    Scotland doesn’t need a majority government. It needs all parties to vote for policies they agree with and against policies they disagree with. Party partisanship doesn’t benefit any parliament, or voters.
  • chrisbchrisb Posts: 121
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    England to win this match by an innings, I feel it in my waters.

    Wasn't it less than a year ago that the bazzballers conceded 556 runs to Pakistan and still won the match by an innings?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,587
    edited July 3
    CatMan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    Bah a new thread.
    Just as we were on the verge of a definitive breakthrough on God and cosmology, too

    Or it’s a new thread because we were on the verge of a definitive breakthrough on God and cosmology
    I am so annoyed at God today.
    Ben Stokes isn't God
    I never doubt Ben.

    This is why I am annoyed at God, just eleven days ago.



  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,381
    chrisb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    England to win this match by an innings, I feel it in my waters.

    Wasn't it less than a year ago that the bazzballers conceded 556 runs to Pakistan and still won the match by an innings?
    And India have their charity bowling attack
    750 declared by tea Saturday
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,308
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    CatMan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    Bah a new thread.
    Just as we were on the verge of a definitive breakthrough on God and cosmology, too

    Or it’s a new thread because we were on the verge of a definitive breakthrough on God and cosmology
    I am so annoyed at God today.
    Ben Stokes isn't God
    I never doubt Ben.

    This is why I am annoyed at God, just eleven days ago.



    Oh, yeah, sorry :(
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,828
    Cookie said:

    FPT @Gallowgate and his perfectly reasonable quibble:

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    williamglenn said:

    I think Labour have bitten off more than they can chew with this:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/35671855/wes-streeting-more-access-fab-jabs-economy/

    BRITAIN will be “fat free” within a decade, paving the way for tax cuts worth billions of pounds, Wes Streeting declared yesterday.

    People will be fat free or dead if the jabs have some inherent vice only revealed by Streetings mass beta test.
    People have got overweight and under-fit by eating crap between meals - that only builds appetite not stops it - and zero exercise. And there’s some simple cheat that makes them fit and well?

    Nope. God has told us over and over there are no simple “cheats” to wellness and resilience - if you want happiness it must be earned.
    Living in LA, almost everyone is on ozempic. And one of the things I've noticed is that people taking it often cut their drinking back massively, and start exercising. When you are already overweight, exercise is tough and uncomfortable. Once you've lost a few kilograms (thanks to the magic of semiglutide), exercise becomes that much easier.
    I'm pretty thin and I still can't be arsed.
    I'm actually reasonably fit for a 50 year old - I cycled the width of England on Saturday - yet I'm still a massive fat bastard.
    Actually, I saw the number '14' in the 'st' column on the scales this morning for the first time in over a decade. But that's mainly because I've been ill for three days. It'll go back on as soon as I resume eating three meals a day.
    You cycled more than the width: you could have made your life a whole bunch easier by starting at Gretna Green.
    I think I did it as optimally as I could. I reckon it to be 56 miles from Rockcliffe on the Eden estuary (between Carlisle and Gretna) to Wylam on the Tyne estuary west of Newcastle, by the most direct route. Which is pretty much the route I took. Almost all traffic-minimal (tractors more common than cars) and quite a lot of traffic free. Which is a challenge, but a surprisingly short distance given it’s a trip you can practically see on the scale of a globe.
    Plus the four miles or so from Carlisle of Gretna to Rockcliffe at the start (there’s not much in it it terms of which is closer but I chose Carlisle because there is a direct train from Manchester – and indeed from Newcastle), and the ten miles or so from Wylam to Newcastle at the end (you could just get on a train at Wylam but the ten miles is flat and off road and easy). I made it 72 miles in total for the route I went. (Plus 6 miles at the start and end from my home suburb to the relevant Central Manchester stations).
    Enough to feel pleased with yourself but surprisingly doable. I recommend it. You can even choose which way around you do it depending on the wind direction on the day.
    Point of order.
    Wylam is a long way from an estuary.
    And it's 25 miles from the coast.
    Technically, the 'coast' starts where the tidal part of the river starts. On an OS map, this is depicted by the river being bounded by a black line rather than a blue line. Thus, on lists of 'which county has the longest coastline', you get unlikely entrants like 'Cambridgeshire'. The tidal bit of the Tyne - hence the 'estuary' - starts at Wylam, just by Wylam station:
    https://www.bing.com/maps/?cp=54.977184~-1.81471&lvl=13.6&style=s

    I fully accept this isn't what the common man understands by 'the Tyne estuary'.


    The tidal bit of the Thames starts at Teddington....
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,995
    Analysis of socio-demgraphic correlates of voting behaviour in the local elections: https://www.datawrapper.de/_/avuui/?v=4
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,715
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    Bah a new thread.
    Just as we were on the verge of a definitive breakthrough on God and cosmology, too

    Or it’s a new thread because we were on the verge of a definitive breakthrough on God and cosmology
    I am so annoyed at God today.
    Come on, he hasn't even batted yet.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,532
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Cookie said:

    FPT @Gallowgate and his perfectly reasonable quibble:

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    williamglenn said:

    I think Labour have bitten off more than they can chew with this:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/35671855/wes-streeting-more-access-fab-jabs-economy/

    BRITAIN will be “fat free” within a decade, paving the way for tax cuts worth billions of pounds, Wes Streeting declared yesterday.

    People will be fat free or dead if the jabs have some inherent vice only revealed by Streetings mass beta test.
    People have got overweight and under-fit by eating crap between meals - that only builds appetite not stops it - and zero exercise. And there’s some simple cheat that makes them fit and well?

    Nope. God has told us over and over there are no simple “cheats” to wellness and resilience - if you want happiness it must be earned.
    Living in LA, almost everyone is on ozempic. And one of the things I've noticed is that people taking it often cut their drinking back massively, and start exercising. When you are already overweight, exercise is tough and uncomfortable. Once you've lost a few kilograms (thanks to the magic of semiglutide), exercise becomes that much easier.
    I'm pretty thin and I still can't be arsed.
    I'm actually reasonably fit for a 50 year old - I cycled the width of England on Saturday - yet I'm still a massive fat bastard.
    Actually, I saw the number '14' in the 'st' column on the scales this morning for the first time in over a decade. But that's mainly because I've been ill for three days. It'll go back on as soon as I resume eating three meals a day.
    You cycled more than the width: you could have made your life a whole bunch easier by starting at Gretna Green.
    I think I did it as optimally as I could. I reckon it to be 56 miles from Rockcliffe on the Eden estuary (between Carlisle and Gretna) to Wylam on the Tyne estuary west of Newcastle, by the most direct route. Which is pretty much the route I took. Almost all traffic-minimal (tractors more common than cars) and quite a lot of traffic free. Which is a challenge, but a surprisingly short distance given it’s a trip you can practically see on the scale of a globe.
    Plus the four miles or so from Carlisle of Gretna to Rockcliffe at the start (there’s not much in it it terms of which is closer but I chose Carlisle because there is a direct train from Manchester – and indeed from Newcastle), and the ten miles or so from Wylam to Newcastle at the end (you could just get on a train at Wylam but the ten miles is flat and off road and easy). I made it 72 miles in total for the route I went. (Plus 6 miles at the start and end from my home suburb to the relevant Central Manchester stations).
    Enough to feel pleased with yourself but surprisingly doable. I recommend it. You can even choose which way around you do it depending on the wind direction on the day.
    Point of order.
    Wylam is a long way from an estuary.
    And it's 25 miles from the coast.
    Technically, the 'coast' starts where the tidal part of the river starts. On an OS map, this is depicted by the river being bounded by a black line rather than a blue line. Thus, on lists of 'which county has the longest coastline', you get unlikely entrants like 'Cambridgeshire'. The tidal bit of the Tyne - hence the 'estuary' - starts at Wylam, just by Wylam station:
    https://www.bing.com/maps/?cp=54.977184~-1.81471&lvl=13.6&style=s

    I fully accept this isn't what the common man understands by 'the Tyne estuary'.


    The tidal bit of the Thames starts at Teddington....
    Yes.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,149
    @afneil

    This is worth watching. Jones the Boy reduced to a gibbering wreck.

    https://x.com/afneil/status/1940797309668991443
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,828
    Cookie said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Cookie said:

    FPT @Gallowgate and his perfectly reasonable quibble:

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    williamglenn said:

    I think Labour have bitten off more than they can chew with this:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/35671855/wes-streeting-more-access-fab-jabs-economy/

    BRITAIN will be “fat free” within a decade, paving the way for tax cuts worth billions of pounds, Wes Streeting declared yesterday.

    People will be fat free or dead if the jabs have some inherent vice only revealed by Streetings mass beta test.
    People have got overweight and under-fit by eating crap between meals - that only builds appetite not stops it - and zero exercise. And there’s some simple cheat that makes them fit and well?

    Nope. God has told us over and over there are no simple “cheats” to wellness and resilience - if you want happiness it must be earned.
    Living in LA, almost everyone is on ozempic. And one of the things I've noticed is that people taking it often cut their drinking back massively, and start exercising. When you are already overweight, exercise is tough and uncomfortable. Once you've lost a few kilograms (thanks to the magic of semiglutide), exercise becomes that much easier.
    I'm pretty thin and I still can't be arsed.
    I'm actually reasonably fit for a 50 year old - I cycled the width of England on Saturday - yet I'm still a massive fat bastard.
    Actually, I saw the number '14' in the 'st' column on the scales this morning for the first time in over a decade. But that's mainly because I've been ill for three days. It'll go back on as soon as I resume eating three meals a day.
    You cycled more than the width: you could have made your life a whole bunch easier by starting at Gretna Green.
    I think I did it as optimally as I could. I reckon it to be 56 miles from Rockcliffe on the Eden estuary (between Carlisle and Gretna) to Wylam on the Tyne estuary west of Newcastle, by the most direct route. Which is pretty much the route I took. Almost all traffic-minimal (tractors more common than cars) and quite a lot of traffic free. Which is a challenge, but a surprisingly short distance given it’s a trip you can practically see on the scale of a globe.
    Plus the four miles or so from Carlisle of Gretna to Rockcliffe at the start (there’s not much in it it terms of which is closer but I chose Carlisle because there is a direct train from Manchester – and indeed from Newcastle), and the ten miles or so from Wylam to Newcastle at the end (you could just get on a train at Wylam but the ten miles is flat and off road and easy). I made it 72 miles in total for the route I went. (Plus 6 miles at the start and end from my home suburb to the relevant Central Manchester stations).
    Enough to feel pleased with yourself but surprisingly doable. I recommend it. You can even choose which way around you do it depending on the wind direction on the day.
    Point of order.
    Wylam is a long way from an estuary.
    And it's 25 miles from the coast.
    Technically, the 'coast' starts where the tidal part of the river starts. On an OS map, this is depicted by the river being bounded by a black line rather than a blue line. Thus, on lists of 'which county has the longest coastline', you get unlikely entrants like 'Cambridgeshire'. The tidal bit of the Tyne - hence the 'estuary' - starts at Wylam, just by Wylam station:
    https://www.bing.com/maps/?cp=54.977184~-1.81471&lvl=13.6&style=s

    I fully accept this isn't what the common man understands by 'the Tyne estuary'.


    The tidal bit of the Thames starts at Teddington....
    Yes.
    So the estuary starts at Teddington? Seriously?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,557
    Nigelb said:

    Extraordinarily low birthrates are being recorded in 2025.

    Demographers define "ultra-low fertility" as below 1.3 births/woman -- some 29 countries were that low.

    Countries at ~1.0 or less: Lithuania, Poland, Costa Rica, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Thailand and Singapore.
    https://x.com/MoreBirths/status/1940541818023956663

    Macau at 0.52...

    Despite the very high prevalance of Catholicism in Italy, the birthrate there has dropped to 1.11.

    The continued collapse of birthrates around the world is literally the biggest story in our lifetimes, and yet people seem bizarrely unaware of it.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,532
    All out for 587.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,532
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Cookie said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Cookie said:

    FPT @Gallowgate and his perfectly reasonable quibble:

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    williamglenn said:

    I think Labour have bitten off more than they can chew with this:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/35671855/wes-streeting-more-access-fab-jabs-economy/

    BRITAIN will be “fat free” within a decade, paving the way for tax cuts worth billions of pounds, Wes Streeting declared yesterday.

    People will be fat free or dead if the jabs have some inherent vice only revealed by Streetings mass beta test.
    People have got overweight and under-fit by eating crap between meals - that only builds appetite not stops it - and zero exercise. And there’s some simple cheat that makes them fit and well?

    Nope. God has told us over and over there are no simple “cheats” to wellness and resilience - if you want happiness it must be earned.
    Living in LA, almost everyone is on ozempic. And one of the things I've noticed is that people taking it often cut their drinking back massively, and start exercising. When you are already overweight, exercise is tough and uncomfortable. Once you've lost a few kilograms (thanks to the magic of semiglutide), exercise becomes that much easier.
    I'm pretty thin and I still can't be arsed.
    I'm actually reasonably fit for a 50 year old - I cycled the width of England on Saturday - yet I'm still a massive fat bastard.
    Actually, I saw the number '14' in the 'st' column on the scales this morning for the first time in over a decade. But that's mainly because I've been ill for three days. It'll go back on as soon as I resume eating three meals a day.
    You cycled more than the width: you could have made your life a whole bunch easier by starting at Gretna Green.
    I think I did it as optimally as I could. I reckon it to be 56 miles from Rockcliffe on the Eden estuary (between Carlisle and Gretna) to Wylam on the Tyne estuary west of Newcastle, by the most direct route. Which is pretty much the route I took. Almost all traffic-minimal (tractors more common than cars) and quite a lot of traffic free. Which is a challenge, but a surprisingly short distance given it’s a trip you can practically see on the scale of a globe.
    Plus the four miles or so from Carlisle of Gretna to Rockcliffe at the start (there’s not much in it it terms of which is closer but I chose Carlisle because there is a direct train from Manchester – and indeed from Newcastle), and the ten miles or so from Wylam to Newcastle at the end (you could just get on a train at Wylam but the ten miles is flat and off road and easy). I made it 72 miles in total for the route I went. (Plus 6 miles at the start and end from my home suburb to the relevant Central Manchester stations).
    Enough to feel pleased with yourself but surprisingly doable. I recommend it. You can even choose which way around you do it depending on the wind direction on the day.
    Point of order.
    Wylam is a long way from an estuary.
    And it's 25 miles from the coast.
    Technically, the 'coast' starts where the tidal part of the river starts. On an OS map, this is depicted by the river being bounded by a black line rather than a blue line. Thus, on lists of 'which county has the longest coastline', you get unlikely entrants like 'Cambridgeshire'. The tidal bit of the Tyne - hence the 'estuary' - starts at Wylam, just by Wylam station:
    https://www.bing.com/maps/?cp=54.977184~-1.81471&lvl=13.6&style=s

    I fully accept this isn't what the common man understands by 'the Tyne estuary'.


    The tidal bit of the Thames starts at Teddington....
    Yes.
    So the estuary starts at Teddington? Seriously?
    Yes.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,381
    Tories throwing the kitchen sink at gaining Newark West from Reform today - Kemi campaigning alongside Jenrick to GoTV
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,557
    Sandpit said:

    Phew, England might get away with shipping fewer than 600 having elected to bowl.

    England just didn't fancy enforcing the follow on: they wanted to have time for the bowlers to rest between Indian innings, so bowling first made sense. They'll now put on about 800 by the end of Saturday, and bowl India out for 150 on Sunday.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,828
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Extraordinarily low birthrates are being recorded in 2025.

    Demographers define "ultra-low fertility" as below 1.3 births/woman -- some 29 countries were that low.

    Countries at ~1.0 or less: Lithuania, Poland, Costa Rica, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Thailand and Singapore.
    https://x.com/MoreBirths/status/1940541818023956663

    Macau at 0.52...

    Despite the very high prevalance of Catholicism in Italy, the birthrate there has dropped to 1.11.

    The continued collapse of birthrates around the world is literally the biggest story in our lifetimes, and yet people seem bizarrely unaware of it.
    Fewer babies born now will mean fewer old people to support in decades to come.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,828
    Cookie said:

    All out for 587.

    Is that good?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,557
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Extraordinarily low birthrates are being recorded in 2025.

    Demographers define "ultra-low fertility" as below 1.3 births/woman -- some 29 countries were that low.

    Countries at ~1.0 or less: Lithuania, Poland, Costa Rica, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Thailand and Singapore.
    https://x.com/MoreBirths/status/1940541818023956663

    Macau at 0.52...

    Despite the very high prevalance of Catholicism in Italy, the birthrate there has dropped to 1.11.

    The continued collapse of birthrates around the world is literally the biggest story in our lifetimes, and yet people seem bizarrely unaware of it.
    Fewer babies born now will mean fewer old people to support in decades to come.
    Yes. But it means even fewer people of working age to support those old people. Fortunately, with the AIs in charge, will we even need humans?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,587
    sarissa said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment it looks like SNP most seats but a Unionist majority.

    Clearly given the SNP got 47% on the constituency vote in 2021 and 40% on the regional list the fact they are now polling just 34% and 26% suggests it is not only Labour UK 2024 GE voters going Reform but also some SNP 2021 Holyrood voters

    I would be gobsmacked if the Scottish Green Party stood in more than a handful of constituencies. As their second preferences usually run about 3:1 SNP to SLab there is an inbuilt constituency boost to the SNP at election time.
    Are the Greens still pissed at the SNP for abrogating the coalition that wasn’t the coalition?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,821
    Sean_F said:

    O/T, but averaging Yougov, FON, Techne, Opinium, MIC, and BMG, gives;

    Ref 28.8%
    Lab 23.3%
    Con 17.7%
    Lib Dem 13.8%
    Green 9%.

    According to Electoral Calculus, that gives 324 seats for Reform, 164 Labour, 67 Lib Dem, 39 Conservatives, and 5 Greens.

    If Labour were 5.5 points behind the leader at the moment this would not usually call for much in the way of comment, except that they were doing OK given the circumstances.

    People are generally not noticing that Labour are, relatively, doing OK,being just a few points behind. That's because it isn't the Tories they are behind.

    The chances are that both Labour and Tories will improve over the next 3+ years, that Reform can only win in an electoral pact with the Tories, and that without it Labour will form the next government.

    Labour form the next government (with LDs) if it is Lab 28, Reform 22, Tory 22. such figures don't look unlikely.

    I wonder what the back room party strategists who can do sums and stats are advising?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,532
    Cookie said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Cookie said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Cookie said:

    FPT @Gallowgate and his perfectly reasonable quibble:

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    williamglenn said:

    I think Labour have bitten off more than they can chew with this:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/35671855/wes-streeting-more-access-fab-jabs-economy/

    BRITAIN will be “fat free” within a decade, paving the way for tax cuts worth billions of pounds, Wes Streeting declared yesterday.

    People will be fat free or dead if the jabs have some inherent vice only revealed by Streetings mass beta test.
    People have got overweight and under-fit by eating crap between meals - that only builds appetite not stops it - and zero exercise. And there’s some simple cheat that makes them fit and well?

    Nope. God has told us over and over there are no simple “cheats” to wellness and resilience - if you want happiness it must be earned.
    Living in LA, almost everyone is on ozempic. And one of the things I've noticed is that people taking it often cut their drinking back massively, and start exercising. When you are already overweight, exercise is tough and uncomfortable. Once you've lost a few kilograms (thanks to the magic of semiglutide), exercise becomes that much easier.
    I'm pretty thin and I still can't be arsed.
    I'm actually reasonably fit for a 50 year old - I cycled the width of England on Saturday - yet I'm still a massive fat bastard.
    Actually, I saw the number '14' in the 'st' column on the scales this morning for the first time in over a decade. But that's mainly because I've been ill for three days. It'll go back on as soon as I resume eating three meals a day.
    You cycled more than the width: you could have made your life a whole bunch easier by starting at Gretna Green.
    I think I did it as optimally as I could. I reckon it to be 56 miles from Rockcliffe on the Eden estuary (between Carlisle and Gretna) to Wylam on the Tyne estuary west of Newcastle, by the most direct route. Which is pretty much the route I took. Almost all traffic-minimal (tractors more common than cars) and quite a lot of traffic free. Which is a challenge, but a surprisingly short distance given it’s a trip you can practically see on the scale of a globe.
    Plus the four miles or so from Carlisle of Gretna to Rockcliffe at the start (there’s not much in it it terms of which is closer but I chose Carlisle because there is a direct train from Manchester – and indeed from Newcastle), and the ten miles or so from Wylam to Newcastle at the end (you could just get on a train at Wylam but the ten miles is flat and off road and easy). I made it 72 miles in total for the route I went. (Plus 6 miles at the start and end from my home suburb to the relevant Central Manchester stations).
    Enough to feel pleased with yourself but surprisingly doable. I recommend it. You can even choose which way around you do it depending on the wind direction on the day.
    Point of order.
    Wylam is a long way from an estuary.
    And it's 25 miles from the coast.
    Technically, the 'coast' starts where the tidal part of the river starts. On an OS map, this is depicted by the river being bounded by a black line rather than a blue line. Thus, on lists of 'which county has the longest coastline', you get unlikely entrants like 'Cambridgeshire'. The tidal bit of the Tyne - hence the 'estuary' - starts at Wylam, just by Wylam station:
    https://www.bing.com/maps/?cp=54.977184~-1.81471&lvl=13.6&style=s

    I fully accept this isn't what the common man understands by 'the Tyne estuary'.


    The tidal bit of the Thames starts at Teddington....
    Yes.
    So the estuary starts at Teddington? Seriously?
    Yes.
    If it helps, the river at Teddington is at 'sea level'.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,051
    Syrian asylum seeker attacks train passengers with an axe before being overpowered:

    https://m.bild.de/news/inland/ein-mann-hat-in-einem-ice-in-bayern-vier-passagiere-leicht-verletzt-686689db4a482933f5247b42
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    edited July 3
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Extraordinarily low birthrates are being recorded in 2025.

    Demographers define "ultra-low fertility" as below 1.3 births/woman -- some 29 countries were that low.

    Countries at ~1.0 or less: Lithuania, Poland, Costa Rica, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Thailand and Singapore.
    https://x.com/MoreBirths/status/1940541818023956663

    Macau at 0.52...

    Despite the very high prevalance of Catholicism in Italy, the birthrate there has dropped to 1.11.

    The continued collapse of birthrates around the world is literally the biggest story in our lifetimes, and yet people seem bizarrely unaware of it.
    It’s house prices. Cities haven’t built enough houses as ever more jobs move into them. A decade and a half of zero interest rates only made things considerably worse.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,828
    Cookie said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Cookie said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Cookie said:

    FPT @Gallowgate and his perfectly reasonable quibble:

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    williamglenn said:

    I think Labour have bitten off more than they can chew with this:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/35671855/wes-streeting-more-access-fab-jabs-economy/

    BRITAIN will be “fat free” within a decade, paving the way for tax cuts worth billions of pounds, Wes Streeting declared yesterday.

    People will be fat free or dead if the jabs have some inherent vice only revealed by Streetings mass beta test.
    People have got overweight and under-fit by eating crap between meals - that only builds appetite not stops it - and zero exercise. And there’s some simple cheat that makes them fit and well?

    Nope. God has told us over and over there are no simple “cheats” to wellness and resilience - if you want happiness it must be earned.
    Living in LA, almost everyone is on ozempic. And one of the things I've noticed is that people taking it often cut their drinking back massively, and start exercising. When you are already overweight, exercise is tough and uncomfortable. Once you've lost a few kilograms (thanks to the magic of semiglutide), exercise becomes that much easier.
    I'm pretty thin and I still can't be arsed.
    I'm actually reasonably fit for a 50 year old - I cycled the width of England on Saturday - yet I'm still a massive fat bastard.
    Actually, I saw the number '14' in the 'st' column on the scales this morning for the first time in over a decade. But that's mainly because I've been ill for three days. It'll go back on as soon as I resume eating three meals a day.
    You cycled more than the width: you could have made your life a whole bunch easier by starting at Gretna Green.
    I think I did it as optimally as I could. I reckon it to be 56 miles from Rockcliffe on the Eden estuary (between Carlisle and Gretna) to Wylam on the Tyne estuary west of Newcastle, by the most direct route. Which is pretty much the route I took. Almost all traffic-minimal (tractors more common than cars) and quite a lot of traffic free. Which is a challenge, but a surprisingly short distance given it’s a trip you can practically see on the scale of a globe.
    Plus the four miles or so from Carlisle of Gretna to Rockcliffe at the start (there’s not much in it it terms of which is closer but I chose Carlisle because there is a direct train from Manchester – and indeed from Newcastle), and the ten miles or so from Wylam to Newcastle at the end (you could just get on a train at Wylam but the ten miles is flat and off road and easy). I made it 72 miles in total for the route I went. (Plus 6 miles at the start and end from my home suburb to the relevant Central Manchester stations).
    Enough to feel pleased with yourself but surprisingly doable. I recommend it. You can even choose which way around you do it depending on the wind direction on the day.
    Point of order.
    Wylam is a long way from an estuary.
    And it's 25 miles from the coast.
    Technically, the 'coast' starts where the tidal part of the river starts. On an OS map, this is depicted by the river being bounded by a black line rather than a blue line. Thus, on lists of 'which county has the longest coastline', you get unlikely entrants like 'Cambridgeshire'. The tidal bit of the Tyne - hence the 'estuary' - starts at Wylam, just by Wylam station:
    https://www.bing.com/maps/?cp=54.977184~-1.81471&lvl=13.6&style=s

    I fully accept this isn't what the common man understands by 'the Tyne estuary'.


    The tidal bit of the Thames starts at Teddington....
    Yes.
    So the estuary starts at Teddington? Seriously?
    Yes.
    Can I have some of what you're smoking? :lol:
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,012
    algarkirk said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T, but averaging Yougov, FON, Techne, Opinium, MIC, and BMG, gives;

    Ref 28.8%
    Lab 23.3%
    Con 17.7%
    Lib Dem 13.8%
    Green 9%.

    According to Electoral Calculus, that gives 324 seats for Reform, 164 Labour, 67 Lib Dem, 39 Conservatives, and 5 Greens.

    If Labour were 5.5 points behind the leader at the moment this would not usually call for much in the way of comment, except that they were doing OK given the circumstances.

    People are generally not noticing that Labour are, relatively, doing OK,being just a few points behind. That's because it isn't the Tories they are behind.

    The chances are that both Labour and Tories will improve over the next 3+ years, that Reform can only win in an electoral pact with the Tories, and that without it Labour will form the next government.

    Labour form the next government (with LDs) if it is Lab 28, Reform 22, Tory 22. such figures don't look unlikely.

    I wonder what the back room party strategists who can do sums and stats are advising?
    I would not expect a Conservative recovery, unless Reform implode.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,118
    stodge said:

    Sandpit said:

    Finally got the fecker. 269.

    A brilliant innings, 30 fours and 3 sixes and he's a "fecker".....
    Only 138 from 269 in boundaries sounds like quite warm work - especially these days.

    Freddie Flintoff scored 2/3 of his entire test career runs as boundaries.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,012
    williamglenn said:

    Syrian asylum seeker attacks train passengers with an axe before being overpowered:

    https://m.bild.de/news/inland/ein-mann-hat-in-einem-ice-in-bayern-vier-passagiere-leicht-verletzt-686689db4a482933f5247b42

    Will his right to a family life prevent deportation?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,131
    Now that Rachel Reeves is doing photoshoots laughing and joking today, can we agree the excuse that her tears were due to "a personal matter", something so serious that one would be embarrassed to have implied she was being a bit weak, must be dubious?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,381
    edited July 3
    algarkirk said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T, but averaging Yougov, FON, Techne, Opinium, MIC, and BMG, gives;

    Ref 28.8%
    Lab 23.3%
    Con 17.7%
    Lib Dem 13.8%
    Green 9%.

    According to Electoral Calculus, that gives 324 seats for Reform, 164 Labour, 67 Lib Dem, 39 Conservatives, and 5 Greens.

    If Labour were 5.5 points behind the leader at the moment this would not usually call for much in the way of comment, except that they were doing OK given the circumstances.

    People are generally not noticing that Labour are, relatively, doing OK,being just a few points behind. That's because it isn't the Tories they are behind.

    The chances are that both Labour and Tories will improve over the next 3+ years, that Reform can only win in an electoral pact with the Tories, and that without it Labour will form the next government.

    Labour form the next government (with LDs) if it is Lab 28, Reform 22, Tory 22. such figures don't look unlikely.

    I wonder what the back room party strategists who can do sums and stats are advising?
    At 28 22 22 13 7 a very basic pact would probably do the trick (red wall blue wall deal) - trouble is any deal needs bedding long before a campaign begins. If we are a month from latest possible dissolution at 28 22 22, both Con and Ref will fancy closing the gap over a campaign, especially Con as theyll think 'experience' will tell
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 88
    sarissa said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment it looks like SNP most seats but a Unionist majority.

    Clearly given the SNP got 47% on the constituency vote in 2021 and 40% on the regional list the fact they are now polling just 34% and 26% suggests it is not only Labour UK 2024 GE voters going Reform but also some SNP 2021 Holyrood voters

    I would be gobsmacked if the Scottish Green Party stood in more than a handful of constituencies. As their second preferences usually run about 3:1 SNP to SLab there is an inbuilt constituency boost to the SNP at election time.
    Wiki suggests the Scottish Greens stood in 12 constituencies in 2021, which oddly enough included some which aren't usually fertile territory for them. I expect them to stand in a lot more next time, but the real target will be list seats.

    With the splintering of the vote, the Lib Dems, Reform and Greens will be aiming to save as many deposits as possible this time. Reform have a chance of winning in a few constituencies, the Greens are probably limited to 2 or 3

    I don't think the Greens will look at constituency seats and give the SNP a free run since the Bute house agreement was torn up

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,381
    1
    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T, but averaging Yougov, FON, Techne, Opinium, MIC, and BMG, gives;

    Ref 28.8%
    Lab 23.3%
    Con 17.7%
    Lib Dem 13.8%
    Green 9%.

    According to Electoral Calculus, that gives 324 seats for Reform, 164 Labour, 67 Lib Dem, 39 Conservatives, and 5 Greens.

    If Labour were 5.5 points behind the leader at the moment this would not usually call for much in the way of comment, except that they were doing OK given the circumstances.

    People are generally not noticing that Labour are, relatively, doing OK,being just a few points behind. That's because it isn't the Tories they are behind.

    The chances are that both Labour and Tories will improve over the next 3+ years, that Reform can only win in an electoral pact with the Tories, and that without it Labour will form the next government.

    Labour form the next government (with LDs) if it is Lab 28, Reform 22, Tory 22. such figures don't look unlikely.

    I wonder what the back room party strategists who can do sums and stats are advising?
    I would not expect a Conservative recovery, unless Reform implode.
    22 isnt really a recovery anyway, a recovery would see them exceed 2024s vote on 25 plus
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,857
    isam said:

    Now that Rachel Reeves is doing photoshoots laughing and joking today, can we agree the excuse that her tears were due to "a personal matter", something so serious that one would be embarrassed to have implied she was being a bit weak, must be dubious?

    They're taking us for fools.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,936
    isam said:

    Now that Rachel Reeves is doing photoshoots laughing and joking today, can we agree the excuse that her tears were due to "a personal matter", something so serious that one would be embarrassed to have implied she was being a bit weak, must be dubious?

    Absolutely. How dare she cheer up. She should be miserable for the rest of her life.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,381
    tlg86 said:

    isam said:

    Now that Rachel Reeves is doing photoshoots laughing and joking today, can we agree the excuse that her tears were due to "a personal matter", something so serious that one would be embarrassed to have implied she was being a bit weak, must be dubious?

    They're taking us for fools.
    Nobody knows her personal issue, he goes to another school
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,821
    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T, but averaging Yougov, FON, Techne, Opinium, MIC, and BMG, gives;

    Ref 28.8%
    Lab 23.3%
    Con 17.7%
    Lib Dem 13.8%
    Green 9%.

    According to Electoral Calculus, that gives 324 seats for Reform, 164 Labour, 67 Lib Dem, 39 Conservatives, and 5 Greens.

    If Labour were 5.5 points behind the leader at the moment this would not usually call for much in the way of comment, except that they were doing OK given the circumstances.

    People are generally not noticing that Labour are, relatively, doing OK,being just a few points behind. That's because it isn't the Tories they are behind.

    The chances are that both Labour and Tories will improve over the next 3+ years, that Reform can only win in an electoral pact with the Tories, and that without it Labour will form the next government.

    Labour form the next government (with LDs) if it is Lab 28, Reform 22, Tory 22. such figures don't look unlikely.

    I wonder what the back room party strategists who can do sums and stats are advising?
    I would not expect a Conservative recovery, unless Reform implode.
    The Tories can perform at a level where they stop Reform forming a government but don't do well themselves. This should encourage both parties (I support neither) to an electoral pact to beat Labour. This will become a central question.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,088
    "Weight-loss jabs used by half of MPs, says Wes Streeting

    The health secretary joked that the drugs were the talk of the Commons as he set out his plan for speeding up and broadening the NHS rollout"

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/healthcare/article/weight-loss-jabs-mps-wes-streeting-337f78gxj
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,715
    rcs1000 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Extraordinarily low birthrates are being recorded in 2025.

    Demographers define "ultra-low fertility" as below 1.3 births/woman -- some 29 countries were that low.

    Countries at ~1.0 or less: Lithuania, Poland, Costa Rica, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Thailand and Singapore.
    https://x.com/MoreBirths/status/1940541818023956663

    Macau at 0.52...

    Despite the very high prevalance of Catholicism in Italy, the birthrate there has dropped to 1.11.

    The continued collapse of birthrates around the world is literally the biggest story in our lifetimes, and yet people seem bizarrely unaware of it.
    Fewer babies born now will mean fewer old people to support in decades to come.
    Yes. But it means even fewer people of working age to support those old people. Fortunately, with the AIs in charge, will we even need humans?
    That will surely be a matter for them to decide. Not sure about the "fortunately" part.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,088
    edited July 3
    Damn. 2 in 2. Another Pope disappointment.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,149
    Andy_JS said:

    Damn. 2 in 2.

    Is that good?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,381
    Andy_JS said:

    Damn. 2 in 2.

    At least the reliable Crawley is still there
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,088
    Scott_xP said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Damn. 2 in 2.

    Is that good?
    no it isn't.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,179
    Eabhal said:

    Interesting that Scottish Labour voters are more Reform inclined than their English equivalents. I guess that's because the SNP soak up more of the woke vote up here?

    Also a cautionary tale for those getting so excited about the collapse of Labour - instead of Farage into Downing Street, you might instead get a Plaid - SNP - Green - Labour rainbow coalition.

    Didn't pan out that way in my neck of the woods in the recent Fountainbridge and Craiglockhart by-election:

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,715
    Just as well England bat deep. The follow on target looks a hell of a long way away from here.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,149
    Wow. The man from Del Monte say bankruptcy

    https://bsky.app/profile/washingtonpost.com/post/3lt2on5kujs26
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,438
    KP here with @TheScreamingEagles levels of modesty

    https://x.com/kp24/status/1940782510444826779?s=61
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    edited July 3
    So, about that getting a Bazball 800 by Saturday…

    Only one way an innings defeat is happening in this match.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,381
    England doing it with all the grace and dignity of a Labour Welfare Bill Second Reading
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,138
    Sandpit said:

    So, about that getting a Bazball 800 by Saturday…

    Only one way an innings defeat is happening in this match.

    This is cricket. Strange things happen.
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,438
    Scott_xP said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Damn. 2 in 2.

    Is that good?
    Yes, if you’re Indian.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,039
    Scott_xP said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Damn. 2 in 2.

    Is that good?
    It's very good. For India.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,039
    Stuartinromford said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Damn. 2 in 2.

    Is that good?
    It's very good. For India.
    (ETA: I doff my cap to @Taz)
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,308
    It's ok. England will get loads of runs in their second innings and salvage a draw
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,899
    Sandpit said:

    So, about that getting a Bazball 800 by Saturday…

    Only one way an innings defeat is happening in this match.

    England could still follow on and win the match.

    In theory.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,927
    sarissa said:

    Eabhal said:

    Interesting that Scottish Labour voters are more Reform inclined than their English equivalents. I guess that's because the SNP soak up more of the woke vote up here?

    Also a cautionary tale for those getting so excited about the collapse of Labour - instead of Farage into Downing Street, you might instead get a Plaid - SNP - Green - Labour rainbow coalition.

    Didn't pan out that way in my neck of the woods in the recent Fountainbridge and Craiglockhart by-election:

    Suggests moving to STV in England would be a clever way to box in the extremists. Far too clever for this short sighted government, sadly.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,821
    More pointless speculation about the next GE but it makes the world (or rather this forum) go round...

    The Fulham Town by election is the one which interests me and is of significance to Labour, Reform, the Conservatives and the LDs.

    The Conservatives won the two seats in 2022 with Labour and the LDs not far behind - Reform were of course not involved then and are the unknown factor.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,899
    Can someone explain why French and UK forces are able to shoot down Iranian drones and missiles over Israel, but can't do the same in Ukraine?

    Why is the former not considered an escalation, while the latter would be?
    https://x.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1940760389064823062
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,088
    Crawley goes as well.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,381
    stodge said:

    More pointless speculation about the next GE but it makes the world (or rather this forum) go round...

    The Fulham Town by election is the one which interests me and is of significance to Labour, Reform, the Conservatives and the LDs.

    The Conservatives won the two seats in 2022 with Labour and the LDs not far behind - Reform were of course not involved then and are the unknown factor.

    Greens also standing which might impact on Lab and LD shares. Possibly significant if tight (as with Reform the other way)
    Im predicting Con Hold on 35%ish
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,857
    Andy_JS said:

    Crawley goes as well.

    Too arrogant to realise that they got lucky at Headingley.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,138
    England 25-3 now.

    Chances of rain are?????
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,381
    India dangerous now that rubbish donkey Bumrah has been dropped
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,381
    OldKingCole said:

    England 25-3 now.

    Chances of rain are?????

    Less than CON GAIN BOOTLE
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,308
    Nigelb said:

    Can someone explain why French and UK forces are able to shoot down Iranian drones and missiles over Israel, but can't do the same in Ukraine?

    Why is the former not considered an escalation, while the latter would be?
    https://x.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1940760389064823062

    Nukes I guess
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,138
    wooliedyed said:

    stodge said:

    More pointless speculation about the next GE but it makes the world (or rather this forum) go round...

    The Fulham Town by election is the one which interests me and is of significance to Labour, Reform, the Conservatives and the LDs.

    The Conservatives won the two seats in 2022 with Labour and the LDs not far behind - Reform were of course not involved then and are the unknown factor.

    Greens also standing which might impact on Lab and LD shares. Possibly significant if tight (as with Reform the other way)
    Im predicting Con Hold on 35%ish
    FPTP looking increasingly undemocratic.
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