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If you’re betting on the 2028 White House race take note – politicalbetting.com
If you’re betting on the 2028 White House race take note – politicalbetting.com
Alastair Meeks has forwarded me his exchange with Betfair which is something several of us have been pondering for a while, should Betfair list Donald Trump on the 2028 market and what happens if he runs in 2028 (or is allowed to run by the conservative majority on SCOTUS.)
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A "look squirrel" thread header, to throw those with Starmer Derangement Syndrome off the scent.
Oh and first on this thread like (edit) @Leon who will be the first to go in studs up on Starmer.
Not sure even the SC would allow that
Besides, there are too many around him who will fancy a go
However he is better than his three predecessors, which tells you how bad those predecessors were.
Right now I have him below May in my list of post 1979 PMs.
1. Thatcher
2. Blair
3. Major
4. Cameron
5. Brown
6. May
7. Starmer (new entry)
8. Sunak
9. Johnson
10. Truss
It looks to me as if Betfair are taking a reasonable stance in this case.
What has Starmer done? Three U-turns in two months? The Conservatives had three prime ministers in two months.
They were the red lines Vote Leave campaigned on.
Natural born leaders don't follow the polls. They lead. They inspire their followers. They are persuasive.
I agree that Thatcher and Blair fit the bill. So does Trump.
So did Hitler.
Natural born leaders can do a lot of harm. Better without them.
Analogously, as has been discussed on here, rock n roll’s great era started with a kind of burp in 1956 and then flourished from 1963 through to some point in the 80s, and is now essentially a decadent and tired art form.
There are no more Beatles, and no more Thatchers.
Don't give up on Keir Starmer
He's still worth one more try
It's not the time to say our goodbyes
A technocratic schemer
But not a total fool
Don't give up on Keir Starmer
He can still come throoooooo
(On topic, betfair should add Donald J Trump to the WH28 market and let the punters decide the price. That's the point of exchange betting.)
The last decent POTUS was Obama and he didn’t really do much. Promised a lot, didn’t deliver. Like Blair
Germans leaders have been terrible of late
I sense it’s a mixture of problems. Ageing economies are genuinely harder to run well. Debt piles up even as voters demand more. Also everyone is getting stupider. Add in social media and it’s a recipe for failure
It’s why I think democracy is doomed medium term
If he doesn't run because he's ineligible, then whoever backed him loses their shirts. If he does get round the term limits and wins, then people who laid him or backed the rest of the field will lose out.
The only difficulty for Betfair is if he stands and wins on the basis that the constitution doesn't bar him from any of this, only from being made president, but then fails to get the SC to play along with whatever move he wants to pull to actually take up office. But if that happens, Betfair have a nightmare on their hands anyway, regardless of they offer odds on him or not.
Talking of Brexit U turns, there were none greater than @williamglenn 's Damascene conversion.
Once upon a time I had big plans
I was gonna get everything
I was gonna live in a big old house
I was gonna be, be a king
Paul Revere and the raiders (ballad of a useless man)
As was their decision last year to essentially exempt the President from criminal prosecution.
😩
Of course, Major may have had better material to work with. On the other hand, much of his premiership was compromised by a wafer-thin majority, which we cannot (yet?) say about Starmer.
The attention economy - or late-stage capitalism, if you like - is spiritually and intellectually corrupt.
The popular recollection of Thatcher in office is very different to mine.
As I say, any suggestions?
On that basis, I am taking it that you are one of Starmer's biggest fans.
I am fine if they say hey this mp is new but has some interesting idea's here is what they are and why we promoted them even if new
There will come a point where someone will be elected to fix things; because at some point the problems will become too disruptive economically to ignore. I hope that moment comes sooner than later, but we’ll see.
The nature of the UK constitution and parliament means that stuff can get done very quickly if it needs to. We don’t have any inflexible constitution or supreme judiciary. Parliament can exert itself without question. Change has been delivered that way for centuries, the fact that it is currently politically convenient for parliamentarians to hide behind other state organs to give them political cover to avoid doing difficult stuff doesn’t mean the power isn’t there.
Adam Brooks AKA EssexPR 🇬🇧
@EssexPR
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1h
Glastonbury is an utter disgrace
Good game actually. For each PM what was their defining episode? Not what they'd like it to be but what it was.
Blair - Iraq
Brown - GFC
Thatcher - Falklands
Johnson - Covid
May - Brexit
Cameron - ??
Truss - Budget
Sunak - ??
Although in terms of number of immigrants, inflation, cost of living, etc, it rather summed up that the government couldn't stop something, put a huge amount into claiming they were going to solve the problem with this scheme and couldn't even get it up and running. Just hapless, useless, clueless.
Thanks for the comments on my rat photo earlier - very interesting.
An update on my adventure: following Greenhead, I cycled the Stanegate in a dense cloud and drizzle - saw the Sycamore Gap, where there was much rejoicing about something; on a drier day I'd have investigated - then descended to the Tyne Valley which is beautiful but much longer than I remember. Sadly @taz I overshot Wylam by about 2 miles, but found my way to the tidal Tyne at about 1705, therefore coast to coast in 5h53, including a 45 min lunch stop. Onwards to Newcastle in the pissing rain and arrived at Wetherspoons on the quayside where I was met by complete strangers like a conquering hero, and they insisted on buying me drinks for 2 hours and giving me money for whatever charity I'm raising for (fortunately me daughter is on a fundraising campaign).
It really is a wonderful city. I'd forgotten how ridiculously celebratory Novocastrians are on a Saturday night.
Reckon I've ridden about 76 miles today, which other pbers possibly do without blinking but is the longest bike ride I've ever had. Now waiting for the train home.