On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
It's that, but also surging crime
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
What would be the correlation between non-dom taxes and AirB'n'B rates? A drastic fall in demand for high-priced escorts maybe?
Yes, I don't believe this is primarily non-doms, it is the image of London as dangerous, hostile and overpriced
It's toxic
It's also not true. Someone at my client's office yesterday was saying that Baker Street was rife with phone thieves and it really, really isn't. If you want to see thieves go to Barcelona or Rome.
For years I've strolled around London (inc the centre) with my phone tucked in my back pocket visible to all. I'm not even remotely careful with it. I sometimes even leave it unattended on a table for a short period. It's never been touched.
I had mine stolen last year about 30 yards from my flat. Plucked from my hands by a kid on a bike. There is a phone theft in London every six minutes
I guarantee that if you carry on doing what you do, your phone will be stolen
On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
It's that, but also surging crime
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
What would be the correlation between non-dom taxes and AirB'n'B rates? A drastic fall in demand for high-priced escorts maybe?
Yes, I don't believe this is primarily non-doms, it is the image of London as dangerous, hostile and overpriced
It's toxic
Is it just an 'image' or is there some reality behind it? I'm referring to the 'dangerous and hostile' bit.
The UK is the rape capital of the western world
"Rape offences have increased dramatically in England and Wales since 2012/13 when there were 16,038 offences. After this year, rape offences increased substantially, reaching a high of 69,973 offences in the 2021/22 reporting year, before falling slightly to 68,949 in 2022/23, and to 67,928 in 2023/24. When 2023/24 is compared with the 2002/03 reporting year, there was an almost sixfold increase in the number of rape offences recorded by the police in England and Wales. "
Fun fact I learned today from HMRC: from 2027 small LTD companies will have to file public profit and loss. So everyone can find out how much (or how little, in my case) I earn.
Going to be hard for small or new companies to bid for projects now - they'll be ruled out based on financial fragility.
Is this a pointless change by Starmer or a pointless change by HMRC?
Previous government and/or HMRC. Alledgedly to prevent money laundering.
It wasn't exactly difficult to work out what was going on by looking at changes in balance sheets.
I run a single person limited. I take all available money in dividends. My balance sheet tells you nothing, whether I earn £10000 or £500000.
It is quite notable that some of the same people who bemoaned the effects of lockdown on children's mental health now won't believe the number of young people who report poor mental health.
Simon Fletcher @fletchersimon · 25m So to be clear, this is a proposal for a two tier benefits system in which your entitlement is determined by when you apply rather than your actual situation, and so two people in the same position could have radically different outcomes purely depending on timing?
I expect they will have to use a similar methodology when it comes to changing Civil Service and Local Authority defined benefit pensions. Those who've got 'em keep 'em, and those who come later have to take the new terms.
Simon Fletcher @fletchersimon · 25m So to be clear, this is a proposal for a two tier benefits system in which your entitlement is determined by when you apply rather than your actual situation, and so two people in the same position could have radically different outcomes purely depending on timing?
Isn't it just going to cause a massive tsunami of applications?
If someone’s claim is grandfathered and subsequently gets reassessed multiple times, do they stay on the grandfathered scale or get moved to the new one?
Simon Fletcher @fletchersimon · 25m So to be clear, this is a proposal for a two tier benefits system in which your entitlement is determined by when you apply rather than your actual situation, and so two people in the same position could have radically different outcomes purely depending on timing?
Seems a poor change . Either the conditions are acceptable or they are not. Any MPs rebelling for principles should also vote down the amendment.
It seems terribly unfair to inflict this on the next generation of disabled people. At a certain point we might as well consider the welfare state on an age ratchet. To those born after the cut off little and to those before everything.
On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
It's that, but also surging crime
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
What would be the correlation between non-dom taxes and AirB'n'B rates? A drastic fall in demand for high-priced escorts maybe?
Yes, I don't believe this is primarily non-doms, it is the image of London as dangerous, hostile and overpriced
It's toxic
It's also not true. Someone at my client's office yesterday was saying that Baker Street was rife with phone thieves and it really, really isn't. If you want to see thieves go to Barcelona or Rome.
For years I've strolled around London (inc the centre) with my phone tucked in my back pocket visible to all. I'm not even remotely careful with it. I sometimes even leave it unattended on a table for a short period. It's never been touched.
I had mine stolen last year about 30 yards from my flat. Plucked from my hands by a kid on a bike. There is a phone theft in London every six minutes
I guarantee that if you carry on doing what you do, your phone will be stolen
In my part of London, there are any number of Police posters warning about "gadget grab" so it's not just phones though I suspect that's the bulk of it.
I've lived in London most of my life (so far) and you have to be a little "street savvy" especially with money and phones. It's less that you are actually targeted from a distance and more the opportunistic thief who takes advantage of a second of vulnerability. I find it hard to believe such theft doesn't happen in other cities so I'll assume it does.
It would be nice if it didn't but we all know petty crime of that nature is as old as the hills and if you want to romanticise it as the Artful Dodger stealing a fob watch from a gent or stealing money for drink as Hogarth demonstrated the net effect is the same.
I suspect like people complaining about the Government of the day it will always be a part of us.
Fun fact I learned today from HMRC: from 2027 small LTD companies will have to file public profit and loss. So everyone can find out how much (or how little, in my case) I earn.
Going to be hard for small or new companies to bid for projects now - they'll be ruled out based on financial fragility.
Is this a pointless change by Starmer or a pointless change by HMRC?
Previous government and/or HMRC. Alledgedly to prevent money laundering.
It wasn't exactly difficult to work out what was going on by looking at changes in balance sheets.
I run a single person limited. I take all available money in dividends. My balance sheet tells you nothing, whether I earn £10000 or £500000.
When do you pay your corporation tax? You can read a lot in to your current liabilities..
Simon Fletcher @fletchersimon · 25m So to be clear, this is a proposal for a two tier benefits system in which your entitlement is determined by when you apply rather than your actual situation, and so two people in the same position could have radically different outcomes purely depending on timing?
I expect they will have to use a similar methodology when it comes to changing Civil Service and Local Authority defined benefit pensions. Those who've got 'em keep 'em, and those who come later have to take the new terms.
This has already happened twice with local Government pensions - in both 2008 and 2014 "reforms" were brought in which essentially meant staff (and employers) contributed more and got less in final benefits. Senior staff in particular saw a sharp rise in their contributions but all LPGS members were affected.
On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
It's that, but also surging crime
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
What would be the correlation between non-dom taxes and AirB'n'B rates? A drastic fall in demand for high-priced escorts maybe?
Yes, I don't believe this is primarily non-doms, it is the image of London as dangerous, hostile and overpriced
It's toxic
It's also not true. Someone at my client's office yesterday was saying that Baker Street was rife with phone thieves and it really, really isn't. If you want to see thieves go to Barcelona or Rome.
For years I've strolled around London (inc the centre) with my phone tucked in my back pocket visible to all. I'm not even remotely careful with it. I sometimes even leave it unattended on a table for a short period. It's never been touched.
I had mine stolen last year about 30 yards from my flat. Plucked from my hands by a kid on a bike. There is a phone theft in London every six minutes
I guarantee that if you carry on doing what you do, your phone will be stolen
The extent to which people are transfixed to their phone is one of the biggest changes I hve noticed in Britain in the last five years. Get on a tube - the person not looking at their mobile is the weird exception. (He's probably the bomber.)
Mothers looking at their phone rather than their baby is causing profound changes in the development of children. We maybe won't know how profound for years, but young children are losing the cues from their mother on how to behave.
On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
It's that, but also surging crime
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
What would be the correlation between non-dom taxes and AirB'n'B rates? A drastic fall in demand for high-priced escorts maybe?
Yes, I don't believe this is primarily non-doms, it is the image of London as dangerous, hostile and overpriced
It's toxic
Is it just an 'image' or is there some reality behind it? I'm referring to the 'dangerous and hostile' bit.
The UK is the rape capital of the western world
"Rape offences have increased dramatically in England and Wales since 2012/13 when there were 16,038 offences. After this year, rape offences increased substantially, reaching a high of 69,973 offences in the 2021/22 reporting year, before falling slightly to 68,949 in 2022/23, and to 67,928 in 2023/24. When 2023/24 is compared with the 2002/03 reporting year, there was an almost sixfold increase in the number of rape offences recorded by the police in England and Wales. "
It is quite notable that some of the same people who bemoaned the effects of lockdown on children's mental health now won't believe the number of young people who report poor mental health.
I saw bits earlier on here and the link suggests the one in four includes anxiety. Now I’m sure some people hav3 crippling anxiety, but is there a danger of a survey question ‘do you sometimes feel anxious?’ becomes a mental health crisis?
Simon Fletcher @fletchersimon · 25m So to be clear, this is a proposal for a two tier benefits system in which your entitlement is determined by when you apply rather than your actual situation, and so two people in the same position could have radically different outcomes purely depending on timing?
Seems a poor change . Either the conditions are acceptable or they are not. Any MPs rebelling for principles should also vote down the amendment.
It seems terribly unfair to inflict this on the next generation of disabled people. At a certain point we might as well consider the welfare state on an age ratchet. To those born after the cut off little and to those before everything.
It’s going to be funny watching him justify it. I assume it will be that he always believed in retaining it for some people, and there’s been some mythical growth which allows it just like WFA
It is quite notable that some of the same people who bemoaned the effects of lockdown on children's mental health now won't believe the number of young people who report poor mental health.
I saw bits earlier on here and the link suggests the one in four includes anxiety. Now I’m sure some people hav3 crippling anxiety, but is there a danger of a survey question ‘do you sometimes feel anxious?’ becomes a mental health crisis?
And linking an income stream to someone's state of anxiety seems counterproductive. If nothing else it gives them something to be anxious about.
She must be in despair. Neither her boss nor her backbench colleagues have been remotely helpful at all. She must be thinking what the blazes is the point?
It's not so much the U turn, as the evidence that the details of the policy had barely been considered, and fell apart on scrutiny.
The specifics of the U turn won't be announced until tomorrow, so it's quite possible the same thing happens all over again.
And it still leaves the unresolved problem of a welfare budget rising at a far more rapid rate than revenue to pay for it - whether from tax rises or growth.
She must be in despair. Neither her boss nor her backbench colleagues have been remotely helpful at all. She must be thinking what the blazes is the point?
Resignation watch? I mean it can’t be fun to know you’ve got the next 3 months to stew over your tax raising (again) budget in the autumn, which will make you even more unpopular and probably a scapegoat for a sacking after the May elections next year.
She must be in despair. Neither her boss nor her backbench colleagues have been remotely helpful at all. She must be thinking what the blazes is the point?
She has only herself to blame. Captured by Treasury think within hours of entering office she has never recovered imho.
Brown is her political hero and yet she doesn't seem to have learnt diddly squat from him about how to mix the politics with the number crunching.
What I want to know is this: what did the Labour backbenchers think they would achieve? Surely they must know that humiliating their leader simply clears more of the pathway for Nige. Have they been won over by Nige's more recent Leftist soundings and convinced themselves that the welfare state is safe in his hands?
By largely caving to the rebels on welfare cuts, Reeves will likely have to have a wealth tax or higher taxes elsewhere in the autumn
She must be in despair. Neither her boss nor her backbench colleagues have been remotely helpful at all. She must be thinking what the blazes is the point?
She has only herself to blame. Captured by Treasury think within hours of entering office she has never recovered imho.
Brown is her political hero and yet she doesn't seem to have learnt diddly squat from him about how to mix the politics with the number crunching.
Yep - she played a poor hand incredibly (beyond) badly.
I joke about my policy of 3p on income tax and a treating the winter fuel allowance as a small extra for low paid pensioners but it still would have solved the immediate problems in a less painful way than the Employer NI change.
And there is still the insanity of council tax being based on 1989 prices to fix...
It's not so much the U turn, as the evidence that the details of the policy had barely been considered, and fell apart on scrutiny.
The specifics of the U turn won't be announced until tomorrow, so it's quite possible the same thing happens all over again.
And it still leaves the unresolved problem of a welfare budget rising at a far more rapid rate than revenue to pay for it - whether from tax rises or growth.
She must be in despair. Neither her boss nor her backbench colleagues have been remotely helpful at all. She must be thinking what the blazes is the point?
She has only herself to blame. Captured by Treasury think within hours of entering office she has never recovered imho.
Brown is her political hero and yet she doesn't seem to have learnt diddly squat from him about how to mix the politics with the number crunching.
Yep - she played a poor hand incredibly beyond badly.
She’s not politically deft enough. A new government is the chance for a Chancellor to do some radical things. Brown had his BoE independence, Osborne had his OBR and austerity budget.
Reeves took some money off grannies and raised taxes, after spending the summer telling everyone how awful it would be. Radical it wasn’t, just glum and dull.
On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
It's that, but also surging crime
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
What would be the correlation between non-dom taxes and AirB'n'B rates? A drastic fall in demand for high-priced escorts maybe?
Yes, I don't believe this is primarily non-doms, it is the image of London as dangerous, hostile and overpriced
It's toxic
It's also not true. Someone at my client's office yesterday was saying that Baker Street was rife with phone thieves and it really, really isn't. If you want to see thieves go to Barcelona or Rome.
For years I've strolled around London (inc the centre) with my phone tucked in my back pocket visible to all. I'm not even remotely careful with it. I sometimes even leave it unattended on a table for a short period. It's never been touched.
I had mine stolen last year about 30 yards from my flat. Plucked from my hands by a kid on a bike. There is a phone theft in London every six minutes
I guarantee that if you carry on doing what you do, your phone will be stolen
The extent to which people are transfixed to their phone is one of the biggest changes I hve noticed in Britain in the last five years. Get on a tube - the person not looking at their mobile is the weird exception. (He's probably the bomber.)
Mothers looking at their phone rather than their baby is causing profound changes in the development of children. We maybe won't know how profound for years, but young children are losing the cues from their mother on how to behave.
Not just babies - toddlers and kids as well. I find it utterly depressing how many parents are fixated on their phones or other gadgets rather than engaging with their young kids.
Here's the letter NYT lead newsroom attorney David McCraw sent to Trump. The paper said: "No retraction is needed. No apology will be forthcoming. We told the truth to the best of our ability. We will continue to do so."
Starmer should immediately push for the end of the Triple Lock, massive changes to IHT so that boomers pay for their social care out of their property wins, reform pension tax contributions.
It's not so much the U turn, as the evidence that the details of the policy had barely been considered, and fell apart on scrutiny.
The specifics of the U turn won't be announced until tomorrow, so it's quite possible the same thing happens all over again.
And it still leaves the unresolved problem of a welfare budget rising at a far more rapid rate than revenue to pay for it - whether from tax rises or growth.
Starmer should immediately push for the end of the Triple Lock, massive changes to IHT so that boomers pay for their social care out of their property wins, reform pension tax contributions.
Seize the day.
Come out punching.
Won’t work. Now any tax rises will be presented as hitting pensioners/workers to protect benefits claimants. The only thing he can probably get away with is lowering the threshold for the top rate of income tax, maybe, with some tweaks to the personal allowance cliff edge.
On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
It's that, but also surging crime
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
What would be the correlation between non-dom taxes and AirB'n'B rates? A drastic fall in demand for high-priced escorts maybe?
Yes, I don't believe this is primarily non-doms, it is the image of London as dangerous, hostile and overpriced
It's toxic
It's also not true. Someone at my client's office yesterday was saying that Baker Street was rife with phone thieves and it really, really isn't. If you want to see thieves go to Barcelona or Rome.
For years I've strolled around London (inc the centre) with my phone tucked in my back pocket visible to all. I'm not even remotely careful with it. I sometimes even leave it unattended on a table for a short period. It's never been touched.
On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
It's that, but also surging crime
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
What would be the correlation between non-dom taxes and AirB'n'B rates? A drastic fall in demand for high-priced escorts maybe?
Yes, I don't believe this is primarily non-doms, it is the image of London as dangerous, hostile and overpriced
It's toxic
It's also not true. Someone at my client's office yesterday was saying that Baker Street was rife with phone thieves and it really, really isn't. If you want to see thieves go to Barcelona or Rome.
For years I've strolled around London (inc the centre) with my phone tucked in my back pocket visible to all. I'm not even remotely careful with it. I sometimes even leave it unattended on a table for a short period. It's never been touched.
On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
It's that, but also surging crime
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
What would be the correlation between non-dom taxes and AirB'n'B rates? A drastic fall in demand for high-priced escorts maybe?
Yes, I don't believe this is primarily non-doms, it is the image of London as dangerous, hostile and overpriced
It's toxic
Is it just an 'image' or is there some reality behind it? I'm referring to the 'dangerous and hostile' bit.
The UK is the rape capital of the western world
"Rape offences have increased dramatically in England and Wales since 2012/13 when there were 16,038 offences. After this year, rape offences increased substantially, reaching a high of 69,973 offences in the 2021/22 reporting year, before falling slightly to 68,949 in 2022/23, and to 67,928 in 2023/24. When 2023/24 is compared with the 2002/03 reporting year, there was an almost sixfold increase in the number of rape offences recorded by the police in England and Wales. "
I'm trying to think of a reason why. Perhaps you can
Have they switched to telephone assessment?
So... a six fold increase in reported rapes, in 20 years, is...... funny?
Nah. It's symptomatic of a society whose structure is breaking down. In your rush to blame the dusky and worship the "Alpha male" you can't detect that. Your side is winning. The only option for me is to laugh at everything. Because the ocean of suffering and cloud of ignorance is widening and deepening every day. When your beloved Reform gain power and fail miserably, as they surely will, what's left? Corbynism didn't win 40% for no reason, nor have those votes gone away. They'll overturn everything you hold dear. Perhaps you won't last that long. Until then continue to find Nigel attractive as you found Boris amusing. As you reap so shall you sew.
Bill Madden @maddenifico · 9h This is why Zohran Mamdani won. He's a modern, educated American with a sense of humor who not only knows how to communicate, but understands and empathizes with the plight of working class Americans. I sincerely hope the Democratic Party is taking notes.
On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
It's that, but also surging crime
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
What would be the correlation between non-dom taxes and AirB'n'B rates? A drastic fall in demand for high-priced escorts maybe?
Yes, I don't believe this is primarily non-doms, it is the image of London as dangerous, hostile and overpriced
It's toxic
Is it just an 'image' or is there some reality behind it? I'm referring to the 'dangerous and hostile' bit.
The UK is the rape capital of the western world
"Rape offences have increased dramatically in England and Wales since 2012/13 when there were 16,038 offences. After this year, rape offences increased substantially, reaching a high of 69,973 offences in the 2021/22 reporting year, before falling slightly to 68,949 in 2022/23, and to 67,928 in 2023/24. When 2023/24 is compared with the 2002/03 reporting year, there was an almost sixfold increase in the number of rape offences recorded by the police in England and Wales. "
I'm trying to think of a reason why. Perhaps you can
Have they switched to telephone assessment?
So... a six fold increase in reported rapes, in 20 years, is...... funny?
Nah. It's symptomatic of a society whose structure is breaking down. In your rush to blame the dusky and worship the "Alpha male" you can't detect that. Your side is winning. The only option for me is to laugh at everything. Because the ocean of suffering and cloud of ignorance is widening and deepening every day. When your beloved Reform gain power and fail miserably, as they surely will, what's left? Corbynism didn't win 40% for no reason, nor have those votes gone away. They'll overturn everything you hold dear. Perhaps you won't last that long. Until then continue to find Nigel attractive as you found Boris amusing. As you reap so shall you sew.
She must be in despair. Neither her boss nor her backbench colleagues have been remotely helpful at all. She must be thinking what the blazes is the point?
She has only herself to blame. Captured by Treasury think within hours of entering office she has never recovered imho.
Brown is her political hero and yet she doesn't seem to have learnt diddly squat from him about how to mix the politics with the number crunching.
Yep - she played a poor hand incredibly beyond badly.
She’s not politically deft enough. A new government is the chance for a Chancellor to do some radical things. Brown had his BoE independence, Osborne had his OBR and austerity budget.
Reeves took some money off grannies and raised taxes, after spending the summer telling everyone how awful it would be. Radical it wasn’t, just glum and dull.
She had 6 months
Reverse the NI cuts but use Income tax Sort out council tax
That would have fixed the immediate issues. Then implement the Employer NI changes this year alongside another 1p on income tax, (2p minimum on 40% + levels) to cover the defence costs.
Now none of that would be popular but it would be a lot more arguable than the current mess.
She must be in despair. Neither her boss nor her backbench colleagues have been remotely helpful at all. She must be thinking what the blazes is the point?
She has only herself to blame. Captured by Treasury think within hours of entering office she has never recovered imho.
Brown is her political hero and yet she doesn't seem to have learnt diddly squat from him about how to mix the politics with the number crunching.
Yep - she played a poor hand incredibly beyond badly.
She’s not politically deft enough. A new government is the chance for a Chancellor to do some radical things. Brown had his BoE independence, Osborne had his OBR and austerity budget.
Reeves took some money off grannies and raised taxes, after spending the summer telling everyone how awful it would be. Radical it wasn’t, just glum and dull.
She had 6 months
Reverse the NI cuts but use Income tax Sort out council tax
That would have fixed the immediate issues. Then implement the Employer NI changes this year alongside another 1p on income tax, (2p minimum on 40% + levels) to cover the defence costs.
Now none of that would be popular but it would be a lot more arguable than the current mess.
I think Labour backbenchers would have no problem with cutting the child benefit income threshold.
Was £50k until Hunt increased it to £60k just before the GE.
Could easily move back to £50k or even lower. If £35k is rich enough not to need Winter Fuel Allowance, why not apply same threshold to other benefits? There's a logic there.
If they chicken out of touching other benefits it will have to be big tax rises. And that will surely have to be employers NI again.
We saw last time that the public don't understand employers NI so there's no direct backlash.
But if you hit a particular group (eg farmers IHT) all hell breaks loose. So they won't risk that.
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
This is yet another example of how Starmer twists and turns, and we are at a point now where how can anyone trust a word he says
Indeed I believe this will just cement the view that he is weak and is unlikely to change any votes, indeed this may cause more unpopularity for him
They are really giving off Single Term vibes now.
The optics of hitting more people with tax rises in the autumn for the price of retaining the existing welfare system for most claimants (after saying how terrible it was) is going to be absolutely bleak for Labour.
Starmer is a bad PM.
I think Labour remain clear favourites to form the next government, either alone or with support from LDs. There is a very long way to go. In the polling they are about 6 points behind Reform. We are one year into this government. A year or so into the 2019 government, Tories and Labour were neck and neck to win the next election according to the polling. Labour won by miles four years later. Stuff happens.
On current form the next election is Labour v Reform. Only one of those two is serious. Another advantage for Labour is that the Tories could well recover ground, and split the non Labour vote in a way which can only help Labour.
Keep whistling, if it maintains your spirits
Maintaining spirits would require a clear win for a One Nation Tory party, the one that has gone missing in recent years, but thanks for the suggestion.
On another recent topic; ferries. Can I put a word in for the short Fishnish to Lochaline run, running regularly throughout the year connecting two places for no tremendously good reason. One of the idlest things I know of a summer afternoon is to be on it as a foot passenger just because it is there.
You are clearly terrified of a Reform victory, and ardently hopecasting that it won't happen
I am not a Reform supporter but each day Starmer is in office must add many more to their vote
My extended fam used to be fairly solidly Tory, with some lefty outliers - and it includes all types, from boho layabouts like me to hardworking accountants, solicitors, electricians. And all ages
Now it is solidly Reform, as I reported, because "we've tried everything else"
I see no sign of Labour dealing with that "we've tried everything else" feeling. I strongly suspect that by the end of their term immigration will be down but all the damage it is doing will be ongoing (and likely a lot worse, so much is baked in). And the boat people will still be an issue in some form
At the same time it is obvious growth is not going to roar into life, the govt has no ideas for reforming the NHS or social care, investment will be weak, the tax base will still be shrinking, and foreign policy will still consist of things like Chagos and reparations, because that's what Labour DO
By 2028 people will be utterly desperate and disgusted by all this. So Reform will win, as things stand
Unfortunately Reform are now dedicated proponents of cakeism like all the other parties apart from possibly the right-wing of the Conservatives who might have a couple of MPs after the next election.
Fun fact I learned today from HMRC: from 2027 small LTD companies will have to file public profit and loss. So everyone can find out how much (or how little, in my case) I earn.
Going to be hard for small or new companies to bid for projects now - they'll be ruled out based on financial fragility.
Is this a pointless change by Starmer or a pointless change by HMRC?
Previous government and/or HMRC. Alledgedly to prevent money laundering.
It wasn't exactly difficult to work out what was going on by looking at changes in balance sheets.
I run a single person limited. I take all available money in dividends. My balance sheet tells you nothing, whether I earn £10000 or £500000.
When do you pay your corporation tax? You can read a lot in to your current liabilities..
Fair point, if you know the profit margin. But how do you if it's 5% or 95%? And how do you know if I take a salary?
I've long been of the view the current low-grade conflict suits a lot of the players - obviously not those doing the fighting and the dying but those supplying the weapons have been the big winners and between the conflict and the coming of Trump, arms manufacturers seem set for another bonanza as European countries ramp up defence spending.
Part of the argument is that Ukraine must, and can, run faster with innovation in the new defence technologies and military strategies ETA necessity is the mother of invention, as someone said
In effect, the conflict becomes a proving ground for new technologies and ways of conducting warfare much as the Balkan Ward foreshadowed what would happen on the Western Front pre 1914.
You might find this picture morbid or eerie- odd in its own way, with unsettling details. Why is there a body on a door? Why is there no casket? And why is this happening in a lawn? It's a short story - one that makes the distant, abstract feeling of war suddenly tangible: https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1938211511542935577
Bit of a dig at Elon Musk’s height? It seems that a man’s height is one of the few things that people can still take the Mickey out of without fear of woke style criticism.
We are still led by donkeys, just different ones, but those dickheads don't seem so bothered about that these days. Much more important to do stunts about the total irrelevance that is Liz Truss.
Jonathan Pie is disappointing in that respect, he has basically given up doing YouTube videos, when there is infinite source material. The odd one about the Orange One, but that is it.
Simon Fletcher @fletchersimon · 25m So to be clear, this is a proposal for a two tier benefits system in which your entitlement is determined by when you apply rather than your actual situation, and so two people in the same position could have radically different outcomes purely depending on timing?
Keir Starmer and his Government really have rebranded themselves the Two Tier Labour PM and Labour Government. Does no one in the No10 Comms unit know what they are doing when it comes to the PM and Government's messaging or the negative optics of these last minute U turns?
Bit of a dig at Elon Musk’s height? It seems that a man’s height is one of the few things that people can still take the Mickey out of without fear of woke style criticism.
You didn't get the memo, if they have the wrong opinions you can be as nasty as you like and it is still fine...and of course all that punching up / punching down rubbish as well.
We are still led by donkeys, just different ones, but those dickheads don't seem so bothered about that these days. Much more important to do stunts about the total irrelevance that is Liz Truss.
Jonathan Pie is disappointing in that respect, he has basically given up doing YouTube videos, when there is infinite source material. The odd one about the Orange One, but that is it.
Why has Jonathan Pie stopped doing YouTube videos?
We are still led by donkeys, just different ones, but those dickheads don't seem so bothered about that these days. Much more important to do stunts about the total irrelevance that is Liz Truss.
Jonathan Pie is disappointing in that respect, he has basically given up doing YouTube videos, when there is infinite source material. The odd one about the Orange One, but that is it.
Why has Jonathan Pie stopped doing YouTube videos?
Clearly there isn't enough material for his character to rant about...
We are still led by donkeys, just different ones, but those dickheads don't seem so bothered about that these days. Much more important to do stunts about the total irrelevance that is Liz Truss.
Jonathan Pie is disappointing in that respect, he has basically given up doing YouTube videos, when there is infinite source material. The odd one about the Orange One, but that is it.
Why has Jonathan Pie stopped doing YouTube videos?
He talks about things on this recent interview with Andrew Gold. I haven't watched the whole 75 mins because I find him slightly annoying — Pie, not Gold.
We are still led by donkeys, just different ones, but those dickheads don't seem so bothered about that these days. Much more important to do stunts about the total irrelevance that is Liz Truss.
Jonathan Pie is disappointing in that respect, he has basically given up doing YouTube videos, when there is infinite source material. The odd one about the Orange One, but that is it.
Why has Jonathan Pie stopped doing YouTube videos?
He talks about things on this recent interview with Andrew Gold. I haven't watched the whole 75 mins because I find him slightly annoying — Pie, not Gold.
I have seen him interviewed before, he doesn't come off great. But the character is very good, and taps into what I think a large amount of the public feel...the FFS...even if over the years more of his personal politics has bled into Pie being openly more left than just dicks to the left of me, dickheads to the right.
We are still led by donkeys, just different ones, but those dickheads don't seem so bothered about that these days. Much more important to do stunts about the total irrelevance that is Liz Truss.
Jonathan Pie is disappointing in that respect, he has basically given up doing YouTube videos, when there is infinite source material. The odd one about the Orange One, but that is it.
Why has Jonathan Pie stopped doing YouTube videos?
He talks about things on this recent interview with Andrew Gold. I haven't watched the whole 75 mins because I find him slightly annoying — Pie, not Gold.
I have seen him interviewed before, he doesn't come off great. But the character is very good, and taps into what I think a large amount of the public feel...the FFS...even if over the years more of his personal politics has bled into Pie being openly more left than just dicks to the left of me, dickheads to the right.
I switched off before he got to the details because as I said I find him bit irritating.
She must be in despair. Neither her boss nor her backbench colleagues have been remotely helpful at all. She must be thinking what the blazes is the point?
She has only herself to blame. Captured by Treasury think within hours of entering office she has never recovered imho.
Brown is her political hero and yet she doesn't seem to have learnt diddly squat from him about how to mix the politics with the number crunching.
Yep - she played a poor hand incredibly (beyond) badly.
I joke about my policy of 3p on income tax and a treating the winter fuel allowance as a small extra for low paid pensioners but it still would have solved the immediate problems in a less painful way than the Employer NI change.
And there is still the insanity of council tax being based on 1989 prices to fix...
Raising Income Tax by 3p (or anything at all) would have required Starmer to throw the MIng vase at the wall - and be showered in shards of his political credibility.
Breaking: After a classified briefing with Cabinet officials, Sen. Chris Murphy says: "I walk away from that briefing still under the belief that we have not obliterated the programs."
"The president was deliberately misleading the public when he said the program was obliterated."
Essentially every arms controls or non-proliferation expert has been saying "where's the bloody uranium?" Because people who actually know what they are talking about realise that even if the centrifuges are "obliterated" it barely matters when Iran has so little enrichment left to do.
Donald Trump and his administration are dangerously stupid. At best the job is half done, and not even the most important half.
X Tom Harris 🇬🇧@MrTCHarris There's a pattern developing here. Announce a radical but unpopular policy, get tons of grief from voters, then once you've been irreparably damaged, perform a U-turn so you get neither the policy nor popularity. Bloody genius. https://x.com/MrTCHarris/status/1938327501962678304
As I've said before whatever merits Starmer has, and he does have some, he is rubbish at politics. Sunak and May were better at it than he is.
X Tom Harris 🇬🇧@MrTCHarris There's a pattern developing here. Announce a radical but unpopular policy, get tons of grief from voters, then once you've been irreparably damaged, perform a U-turn so you get neither the policy nor popularity. Bloody genius. https://x.com/MrTCHarris/status/1938327501962678304
As I've said before whatever merits Starmer has, and he does have some, he is rubbish at politics. Sunak and May were better at it than he is.
Maybe it's time to hand the reins to Angela Rayner.
X Tom Harris 🇬🇧@MrTCHarris There's a pattern developing here. Announce a radical but unpopular policy, get tons of grief from voters, then once you've been irreparably damaged, perform a U-turn so you get neither the policy nor popularity. Bloody genius. https://x.com/MrTCHarris/status/1938327501962678304
As I've said before whatever merits Starmer has, and he does have some, he is rubbish at politics. Sunak and May were better at it than he is.
Steady on there...Sunak was also absolutely useless at politics.
X Tom Harris 🇬🇧@MrTCHarris There's a pattern developing here. Announce a radical but unpopular policy, get tons of grief from voters, then once you've been irreparably damaged, perform a U-turn so you get neither the policy nor popularity. Bloody genius. https://x.com/MrTCHarris/status/1938327501962678304
As I've said before whatever merits Starmer has, and he does have some, he is rubbish at politics. Sunak and May were better at it than he is.
Maybe it's time to hand the reins to Angela Rayner.
What evidence is there she would be better? She is fiesty and much better at hand to hand combat of HoC politicing, but her workers bill is dangerously stupid and all the house building targets aren't exactly been smashed. And she has never run much more than a bath. Starmer did run a significant public sector operation (although he is rarely challenged properly on just how many failures it had under his watch) and he looks way out of his depth.
X Tom Harris 🇬🇧@MrTCHarris There's a pattern developing here. Announce a radical but unpopular policy, get tons of grief from voters, then once you've been irreparably damaged, perform a U-turn so you get neither the policy nor popularity. Bloody genius. https://x.com/MrTCHarris/status/1938327501962678304
As I've said before whatever merits Starmer has, and he does have some, he is rubbish at politics. Sunak and May were better at it than he is.
Steady on there...Sunak was also absolutely useless at politics.
I never said Sunak was good at it, merely better than Starmer. Sunak and May didn't go through all the palarver first building up expectations, they did unpopular things straight off the bat. Somehow Starmer seems to have a habit now for dragging things out far beyond any normal political limit.
On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
It's that, but also surging crime
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
What would be the correlation between non-dom taxes and AirB'n'B rates? A drastic fall in demand for high-priced escorts maybe?
Yes, I don't believe this is primarily non-doms, it is the image of London as dangerous, hostile and overpriced
It's toxic
Is it just an 'image' or is there some reality behind it? I'm referring to the 'dangerous and hostile' bit.
The UK is the rape capital of the western world
"Rape offences have increased dramatically in England and Wales since 2012/13 when there were 16,038 offences. After this year, rape offences increased substantially, reaching a high of 69,973 offences in the 2021/22 reporting year, before falling slightly to 68,949 in 2022/23, and to 67,928 in 2023/24. When 2023/24 is compared with the 2002/03 reporting year, there was an almost sixfold increase in the number of rape offences recorded by the police in England and Wales. "
I'm trying to think of a reason why. Perhaps you can
Because of a feedback loop of societal consciousness of a problem, women are believed more, more cases go forward. Which encourages more reporting. Which puts it more in the news. So a woman thinks “that bastard got his deserts. Maybe I should report…”
Note that @DavidL of this parish reports a huge amount of historical cases in his docket. That are now being investigated and taken to court.
She must be in despair. Neither her boss nor her backbench colleagues have been remotely helpful at all. She must be thinking what the blazes is the point?
She has only herself to blame. Captured by Treasury think within hours of entering office she has never recovered imho.
Brown is her political hero and yet she doesn't seem to have learnt diddly squat from him about how to mix the politics with the number crunching.
Yep - she played a poor hand incredibly (beyond) badly.
I joke about my policy of 3p on income tax and a treating the winter fuel allowance as a small extra for low paid pensioners but it still would have solved the immediate problems in a less painful way than the Employer NI change.
And there is still the insanity of council tax being based on 1989 prices to fix...
Raising Income Tax by 3p (or anything at all) would have required Starmer to throw the MIng vase at the wall - and be showered in shards of his political credibility.
It required not answering a question during the election and pointing out that the 4p cut on employee NI wasn't affordable (as we all knew) and was being reversed by 3p on Income Tax. The WFA concession would then mean that only richer pensioners were hit at which point the question becomes who except for rich pensioners is going to complain about rich pensioners paying more tax.
X Tom Harris 🇬🇧@MrTCHarris There's a pattern developing here. Announce a radical but unpopular policy, get tons of grief from voters, then once you've been irreparably damaged, perform a U-turn so you get neither the policy nor popularity. Bloody genius. https://x.com/MrTCHarris/status/1938327501962678304
As I've said before whatever merits Starmer has, and he does have some, he is rubbish at politics. Sunak and May were better at it than he is.
Steady on there...Sunak was also absolutely useless at politics.
I never said Sunak was good at it, merely better than Starmer. Sunak and May didn't go through all the palarver first building up expectations, they did unpopular things straight off the bat. Somehow Starmer seems to have a habit now for dragging things out far beyond any normal political limit.
I think you have short memory, Sunak got himself into some right pickles e.g. when he was CoE, NI++ "reforms".
X Tom Harris 🇬🇧@MrTCHarris There's a pattern developing here. Announce a radical but unpopular policy, get tons of grief from voters, then once you've been irreparably damaged, perform a U-turn so you get neither the policy nor popularity. Bloody genius. https://x.com/MrTCHarris/status/1938327501962678304
As I've said before whatever merits Starmer has, and he does have some, he is rubbish at politics. Sunak and May were better at it than he is.
Steady on there...Sunak was also absolutely useless at politics.
The problem is Starmer and co (Reeves, Kendall) are worse and I voted for Kendall as better than the other options at the time (2015).
Rep. Andy Ogles, a Republican from Tennessee, has sent a letter to Pam Bondi calling for Zohran Mamdani to be stripped of his citizenship and deported.
On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
It's that, but also surging crime
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
What would be the correlation between non-dom taxes and AirB'n'B rates? A drastic fall in demand for high-priced escorts maybe?
Yes, I don't believe this is primarily non-doms, it is the image of London as dangerous, hostile and overpriced
It's toxic
It's also not true. Someone at my client's office yesterday was saying that Baker Street was rife with phone thieves and it really, really isn't. If you want to see thieves go to Barcelona or Rome.
For years I've strolled around London (inc the centre) with my phone tucked in my back pocket visible to all. I'm not even remotely careful with it. I sometimes even leave it unattended on a table for a short period. It's never been touched.
I had mine stolen last year about 30 yards from my flat. Plucked from my hands by a kid on a bike. There is a phone theft in London every six minutes
I guarantee that if you carry on doing what you do, your phone will be stolen
The extent to which people are transfixed to their phone is one of the biggest changes I hve noticed in Britain in the last five years. Get on a tube - the person not looking at their mobile is the weird exception. (He's probably the bomber.)
Mothers looking at their phone rather than their baby is causing profound changes in the development of children. We maybe won't know how profound for years, but young children are losing the cues from their mother on how to behave.
Not just babies - toddlers and kids as well. I find it utterly depressing how many parents are fixated on their phones or other gadgets rather than engaging with their young kids.
Imo what has hurt children since Covid is not long Covid or lockdown or the toxicity of social media but the use of messaging apps to replace in-person communication.
On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
It's that, but also surging crime
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
What would be the correlation between non-dom taxes and AirB'n'B rates? A drastic fall in demand for high-priced escorts maybe?
Yes, I don't believe this is primarily non-doms, it is the image of London as dangerous, hostile and overpriced
It's toxic
It's also not true. Someone at my client's office yesterday was saying that Baker Street was rife with phone thieves and it really, really isn't. If you want to see thieves go to Barcelona or Rome.
For years I've strolled around London (inc the centre) with my phone tucked in my back pocket visible to all. I'm not even remotely careful with it. I sometimes even leave it unattended on a table for a short period. It's never been touched.
I had mine stolen last year about 30 yards from my flat. Plucked from my hands by a kid on a bike. There is a phone theft in London every six minutes
I guarantee that if you carry on doing what you do, your phone will be stolen
Actually phones in pockets are reasonably safe in the streets, where the MO of phone thieves is to snatch them from the hands of people using them. It is in bars and on the tube where pickpockets operate.
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
This is yet another example of how Starmer twists and turns, and we are at a point now where how can anyone trust a word he says
Indeed I believe this will just cement the view that he is weak and is unlikely to change any votes, indeed this may cause more unpopularity for him
They are really giving off Single Term vibes now.
The optics of hitting more people with tax rises in the autumn for the price of retaining the existing welfare system for most claimants (after saying how terrible it was) is going to be absolutely bleak for Labour.
Starmer is a bad PM.
Nevertheless a bad Labour PM is change from a bad Tory one.
I’m starting to think we’d have been better with Sunak. And I dont say that lightly - I thought the Tories 2019-2024 were easily the worst government of my lifetime.
IMHO, Sunak and Hunt with a 5 year term ahead of them would have been significantly better at governing than Starmer's shower of shite. A couple of technocrats muddling through is about as good as it gets.
Ah yes, Sunak and Hunt, under whose hegemony PIP was, well, you get the drift. You are falling into the same trap as Kemi and Jenrick. If badly-reformed PIP is wrong now, it was worse under the Tories.
Simon Fletcher @fletchersimon · 25m So to be clear, this is a proposal for a two tier benefits system in which your entitlement is determined by when you apply rather than your actual situation, and so two people in the same position could have radically different outcomes purely depending on timing?
I've long been of the view the current low-grade conflict suits a lot of the players - obviously not those doing the fighting and the dying but those supplying the weapons have been the big winners and between the conflict and the coming of Trump, arms manufacturers seem set for another bonanza as European countries ramp up defence spending.
To condense and mangle a joke from the Jimmy Carr clip posted earlier:- Heckler: Who will win the war between the US and Iran? Carr: Lockheed Martin.
Comments
I guarantee that if you carry on doing what you do, your phone will be stolen
Maybe??
It seems terribly unfair to inflict this on the next generation of disabled people. At a certain point we might as well consider the welfare state on an age ratchet. To those born after the cut off little and to those before everything.
I've lived in London most of my life (so far) and you have to be a little "street savvy" especially with money and phones. It's less that you are actually targeted from a distance and more the opportunistic thief who takes advantage of a second of vulnerability. I find it hard to believe such theft doesn't happen in other cities so I'll assume it does.
It would be nice if it didn't but we all know petty crime of that nature is as old as the hills and if you want to romanticise it as the Artful Dodger stealing a fob watch from a gent or stealing money for drink as Hogarth demonstrated the net effect is the same.
I suspect like people complaining about the Government of the day it will always be a part of us.
Mothers looking at their phone rather than their baby is causing profound changes in the development of children. We maybe won't know how profound for years, but young children are losing the cues from their mother on how to behave.
It's not so much the U turn, as the evidence that the details of the policy had barely been considered, and fell apart on scrutiny.
The specifics of the U turn won't be announced until tomorrow, so it's quite possible the same thing happens all over again.
And it still leaves the unresolved problem of a welfare budget rising at a far more rapid rate than revenue to pay for it - whether from tax rises or growth.
Keir Starmer is not known for his loyalty.
Brown is her political hero and yet she doesn't seem to have learnt diddly squat from him about how to mix the politics with the number crunching.
I joke about my policy of 3p on income tax and a treating the winter fuel allowance as a small extra for low paid pensioners but it still would have solved the immediate problems in a less painful way than the Employer NI change.
And there is still the insanity of council tax being based on 1989 prices to fix...
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/jun/26/uk-businesses-tax-rises-keir-starmer-rachel-reeves-shell-bp-no-bid-business-live?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
Reeves took some money off grannies and raised taxes, after spending the summer telling everyone how awful it would be. Radical it wasn’t, just glum and dull.
I'm going to try and communicate with my Republican colleagues in a new way.
https://bsky.app/profile/murray.senate.gov/post/3lsk3uyolnc2x
Here's the letter NYT lead newsroom attorney David McCraw sent to Trump. The paper said: "No retraction is needed. No apology will be forthcoming. We told the truth to the best of our ability. We will continue to do so."
https://x.com/maxwelltani/status/1938352292807221619
Starmer should immediately push for the end of the Triple Lock, massive changes to IHT so that boomers pay for their social care out of their property wins, reform pension tax contributions.
Seize the day.
Come out punching.
What a surprise!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2646686
It's symptomatic of a society whose structure is breaking down.
In your rush to blame the dusky and worship the "Alpha male" you can't detect that.
Your side is winning.
The only option for me is to laugh at everything.
Because the ocean of suffering and cloud of ignorance is widening and deepening every day.
When your beloved Reform gain power and fail miserably, as they surely will, what's left?
Corbynism didn't win 40% for no reason, nor have those votes gone away.
They'll overturn everything you hold dear. Perhaps you won't last that long. Until then continue to find Nigel attractive as you found Boris amusing.
As you reap so shall you sew.
Bill Madden
@maddenifico
·
9h
This is why Zohran Mamdani won. He's a modern, educated American with a sense of humor who not only knows how to communicate, but understands and empathizes with the plight of working class Americans. I sincerely hope the Democratic Party is taking notes.
https://x.com/maddenifico/status/1938211234412974130
Not a fan myself.
Roll on September
https://x.com/lecanardnoir/status/1938271981084021122
Reverse the NI cuts but use Income tax
Sort out council tax
That would have fixed the immediate issues.
Then implement the Employer NI changes this year alongside another 1p on income tax, (2p minimum on 40% + levels) to cover the defence costs.
Now none of that would be popular but it would be a lot more arguable than the current mess.
Was £50k until Hunt increased it to £60k just before the GE.
Could easily move back to £50k or even lower. If £35k is rich enough not to need Winter Fuel Allowance, why not apply same threshold to other benefits? There's a logic there.
If they chicken out of touching other benefits it will have to be big tax rises. And that will surely have to be employers NI again.
We saw last time that the public don't understand employers NI so there's no direct backlash.
But if you hit a particular group (eg farmers IHT) all hell breaks loose. So they won't risk that.
https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1938211511542935577
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1938211511542935577.html?utm_campaign=topunroll
🌹 LAB: 43.2% (-2.5)
➡️ RFM: 34.5% (New)
🌳 CON: 9.0% (-9.9)
🌍 GRN: 6.7% (-7.8)
🔶 LDM: 6.7% (-8.6)
No TUSC (-5.6) as previous.
Labour HOLD.
Changes w/ 2024.
Anti Reform votimg?? Reform won Bedwell in the county council last month
Jonathan Pie is disappointing in that respect, he has basically given up doing YouTube videos, when there is infinite source material. The odd one about the Orange One, but that is it.
The Prime Minister’s authority is under attack and Rachel Reeves may pay the price.
By Andrew Marr"
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2025/06/state-of-emergency-2
Also highlights the limits of an airwar operation, like Reform's. That's probably better news for them in a General Election.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Yw9nnIKZF4
I have seen him interviewed before, he doesn't come off great. But the character is very good, and taps into what I think a large amount of the public feel...the FFS...even if over the years more of his personal politics has bled into Pie being openly more left than just dicks to the left of me, dickheads to the right.
Lord knows what price they'd exact. Selling the NHS to Donald Trump for a £1?
"South Staffordshire. Great Wyrley Landywood
Con 358 (48.71%)
RefUK 292 (39.73%)
Lab 55 (7.48%)
Green 30 (4.08%)
Con hold"
https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/19397/local-council-elections-26th-june?page=3
Donald Trump and his administration are dangerously stupid. At best the job is half done, and not even the most important half.
Buckshaw and Whittle (Chorley) council by-election result:
CON: 35.5% (+3.2)
REF: 32.7% (+32.7)
LAB: 25.4% (-34.3)
GRN: 6.4% (-1.6)
+/- 2023
Estimated turnout: ~23% (-6)
Another Reform miss tonight
Whitworth (Rossendale) council by-election result:
REF: 47.5% (+47.5)
CON: 29.1% (-0.7)
LAB: 16.3% (-4.8)
GRN: 7.1% (-4.0)
No IndGrp (-38.0) as prev.
+/- 2024
There they are!
Labour get their arses kicked by the Greens in Shooters Hill. Greenwich
Grn 34.64%
Lab 30.13%
RefUK 16.02%
Con 11.48%
LD 5.10%
Ind Tingay 2.27%
Ind Tarling 0.36%
Heckler: Who will win the war between the US and Iran?
Carr: Lockheed Martin.
Just Wickford and Catsfield/Crowhurst results to come (indy and LD defences)