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Reform or rebrand: Who is really gaining power in local government? – politicalbetting.com

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  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 172

    viewcode said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Leaked texts show Labour MPs had to be ordered to attend the PM’s NATO statement.
    First message: 'You’re encouraged to attend.'
    Second: 'You must attend.'
    Benches still half-empty.
    'That doesn’t augur well for the Prime Minister.'
    — Kevin Schofield, HuffPost UK

    Authority ebbing away as Rentoul said

    Are we seriously witnessing Starmer's end days ?

    I find it most unlikely but it seems if it happens it is coming from those behind him, not those he is facing
    That's where political enemies do sit.
    As Diane Abbott once said (quoting somebody else). "Your opponents are in front of you, your enemies are behind you".
    Diane has grown on me recently and at least she is authentic, unlike Starmer and others
    I should get some cream from the chemist - that's the kind of rash you want rid of!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,292

    Leon said:

    I for one am absolutely stunned - literally shaken to the core with horrified surprise - to discover that my printer has stopped working

    Didn’t you spend days a few months ago telling us what a wonderful printer you had bought at a bargain price?
    No
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,377
    TimS said:

    Leaked texts show Labour MPs had to be ordered to attend the PM’s NATO statement.
    First message: 'You’re encouraged to attend.'
    Second: 'You must attend.'
    Benches still half-empty.
    'That doesn’t augur well for the Prime Minister.'
    — Kevin Schofield, HuffPost UK

    Authority ebbing away as Rentoul said

    Are we seriously witnessing Starmer's end days ?

    I find it most unlikely but it seems if it happens it is coming from those behind him, not those he is facing
    I think no in fairness but I think Reeves and maybe Kendall sackings are the price to keep him in post till May
    A ritual reshuffle is probably needed, then some well placed press articles noting that Keir seems to have a weight lifted off his shoulders and is back to his natural self (I remember such articles with both May and Major, his two closest personality matches in recent PMs, not that they helped in the end).

    The trouble is most of his front bench are decent.

    He has Wes, Yvette and Bridget. All confident media performers. And Ed, though hated by those who will still be insisting next Monday’s 36C in London off the back of a truly mediocre synoptic pattern is a mere bagatelle, has his own charisma and is on top of his brief. Johnny Reynolds is a good business secretary and could move to the treasury. Ange is solid. Lammy seems to divide opinion but I have a soft spot for him. Probably Starmer needs just one or two more.

    None is a leader in waiting either. I don’t think Streeting is quite ready. Otherwise not an obvious Jenrick or Boris type waiting in the wings.

    Just like Reform. No obvious succession.

    Contrast with the Lib Dems where Daisy Cooper is poised, trained up and ready to assume the mantle (just not yet, says Davey).
    Daisy Cooper asked two PMQs yesterday (can the DPM give a cast-iron guarantee (no, obviously, not about anything, but this was about carer's allowance) and can the DPM arrange a joint statement with President Trump that Ukraine... (again, obviously no).

    Good for headlines, perhaps, but perhaps a tad student politics?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,986

    AnneJGP said:

    viewcode said:

    Leaked texts show Labour MPs had to be ordered to attend the PM’s NATO statement.
    First message: 'You’re encouraged to attend.'
    Second: 'You must attend.'
    Benches still half-empty.
    'That doesn’t augur well for the Prime Minister.'
    — Kevin Schofield, HuffPost UK

    Authority ebbing away as Rentoul said

    Are we seriously witnessing Starmer's end days ?

    I find it most unlikely but it seems if it happens it is coming from those behind him, not those he is facing
    It would be difficult to imagine that a PM with 411 seats and four years left of his mandate would be in trouble. It speaks to our febrile times that you might be right :(
    And yet, who is there that will do better?
    Probably due somebody suggesting David Miliband could stand in a by election..........
    Doesn't he now have about 27 jobs in the US, not just being in charge of Thunderbirds?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,055
    Diane Abbott?!

    Seriously though, is this unusual? A lot of new MPs last year

    Labour MP on Starmer: “I’ve never had a conversation with him”

    https://x.com/mattchorley/status/1938241356415037748?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,810

    AnneJGP said:

    viewcode said:

    Leaked texts show Labour MPs had to be ordered to attend the PM’s NATO statement.
    First message: 'You’re encouraged to attend.'
    Second: 'You must attend.'
    Benches still half-empty.
    'That doesn’t augur well for the Prime Minister.'
    — Kevin Schofield, HuffPost UK

    Authority ebbing away as Rentoul said

    Are we seriously witnessing Starmer's end days ?

    I find it most unlikely but it seems if it happens it is coming from those behind him, not those he is facing
    It would be difficult to imagine that a PM with 411 seats and four years left of his mandate would be in trouble. It speaks to our febrile times that you might be right :(
    And yet, who is there that will do better?
    But I suspect it will be a lady. Ange, or perhaps Wes.
    Naughty
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,647
    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, Denmark is on the horizon, we’re off the Swedish coast in the Kattegat (why that Vikings TV show named its town after a piece of sea remains a mystery), and it’s actually now raining. Poor show.

    But this ex-DFDS ship has dozens of ways to eat and drink, with a cocktail bar, night club, wine bar, table service Scandinavian restaurant, Italian restaurant, English style pub, and a lavish Scandinavian eat-as-much-as-you-want while drinking €10 glasses of wine buffet restaurant, from which I have just returned; no wonder DFDS is so often awarded ‘ferry operator of the year’.

    DFDS Dover-Calais and Dunkerque is rubbish though, as are all the short haul ferries.

    But I absolutely love good ferry crossings. The longer the better. I love boarding, climbing the stairs and exploring the indoor areas then heading to deck to watch as we set sail. I love the little cabins and the onboard restaurants. Yet I hate the idea of a cruise. Somehow very different.

    Among my most enjoyable recent long crossings, the overnight from Dakar to Ziguinchor in Senegal beats them all. A comfortable, oh so French experience: pastis on deck from the outside bar on departure, a full dinner, tablecloths and Moroccan wine and starched cuffs and all, for about a tenner. A very comfortable cabin, then a morning travelling up the Casamance past mangroves and palm islands like some latter day Marlow while the cheerful mix of Casamancais returning from the big smoke, German old lady sex tourists and Spanish backpackers take selfies on deck.

    Corsica ferries are also great, with their multiple restaurants and deck plunge pool. It can get a bit hot inside and out though, and the waters are choppy. The Greek island hopping ferries are the smartest in the med, the views are lovely and the extra for business class is very cheap and worth it, and Brittany ferries manage somehow to encapsulate that kids summer holiday excitement perfectly.

    Jersey ferries are a bit shit.

    I’ve not done the hurtigruten up the Norwegian coast or indeed the short crossing from Tarifa to Tangier, but they’re on the list.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,253

    carnforth said:

    "Weight loss jabs study begins after reports of pancreas issues"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4ged0r1n3wo

    As a layman, it doesn't look too serious on the scale of these things. Can anyone offer an informed opinion?

    That the MHRA is looking into it actively is not a good sign for these drugs. I mean, they might conclude there's no issue, but it's not good they're looking
    Correction: it *is* good they are looking

    Inappropriate use of medication is a huge risk for the population
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,804
    edited June 26
    The question is if Starmer backs down, what other welfare cuts could he make instead to save the same amount?

    Options could include:

    Reduce Child Benefit threshold back to £50k over even lower. The Winter Fuel threshold of £35k could act as a benchmark which was widely accepted.

    Reduce the uprating of all benefits across the board - ie they don't go up by CPI, instead it's CPI minus 1% or CPI minus 2% or whatever.

    Finally, they could ditch scrapping the two child limit. Of course that hasn't been announced yet so isn't in the existing numbers but it was something they had planned to do.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,059
    The fix is in? And only cost a few billion quid
    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1938289709132009630?s=19
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,910

    AnneJGP said:

    viewcode said:

    Leaked texts show Labour MPs had to be ordered to attend the PM’s NATO statement.
    First message: 'You’re encouraged to attend.'
    Second: 'You must attend.'
    Benches still half-empty.
    'That doesn’t augur well for the Prime Minister.'
    — Kevin Schofield, HuffPost UK

    Authority ebbing away as Rentoul said

    Are we seriously witnessing Starmer's end days ?

    I find it most unlikely but it seems if it happens it is coming from those behind him, not those he is facing
    It would be difficult to imagine that a PM with 411 seats and four years left of his mandate would be in trouble. It speaks to our febrile times that you might be right :(
    And yet, who is there that will do better?
    Probably due somebody suggesting David Miliband could stand in a by election..........
    There are better New Labour figures they could bring back than him. How about a comeback for Alan Milburn?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,986
    edited June 26

    The fix is in? And only cost a few billion quid
    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1938289709132009630?s=19

    Its going to end up like WFA, it won't save anything.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,986

    AnneJGP said:

    viewcode said:

    Leaked texts show Labour MPs had to be ordered to attend the PM’s NATO statement.
    First message: 'You’re encouraged to attend.'
    Second: 'You must attend.'
    Benches still half-empty.
    'That doesn’t augur well for the Prime Minister.'
    — Kevin Schofield, HuffPost UK

    Authority ebbing away as Rentoul said

    Are we seriously witnessing Starmer's end days ?

    I find it most unlikely but it seems if it happens it is coming from those behind him, not those he is facing
    It would be difficult to imagine that a PM with 411 seats and four years left of his mandate would be in trouble. It speaks to our febrile times that you might be right :(
    And yet, who is there that will do better?
    Probably due somebody suggesting David Miliband could stand in a by election..........
    There are better New Labour figures they could bring back than him. How about a comeback for Alan Milburn?
    He is already back.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,377
    isam said:

    Diane Abbott?!

    Seriously though, is this unusual? A lot of new MPs last year

    Labour MP on Starmer: “I’ve never had a conversation with him”

    https://x.com/mattchorley/status/1938241356415037748?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Bog standard SOP, both in the leader not visiting the Commons tearooms and in this starting to matter when the chips are down.

    Related to this is what many PBers identified in July. A lot of Labour's new MPs had serious jobs outside Parliament and might be hoping for something better than lobby fodder.
  • DeclanFDeclanF Posts: 55
    Honestly the answer to Starmer's disability cuts problem is obvious.

    He should simply say that Esther Rantzen told him to do it at a dinner party, that it would make AD a much more attractive option than being unemployed, sitting in your faeces because you no longer have the money to pay for a carer, this will save the NHS money - and, above all, he made her a promise.

    That should do it.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,647

    TimS said:

    Leaked texts show Labour MPs had to be ordered to attend the PM’s NATO statement.
    First message: 'You’re encouraged to attend.'
    Second: 'You must attend.'
    Benches still half-empty.
    'That doesn’t augur well for the Prime Minister.'
    — Kevin Schofield, HuffPost UK

    Authority ebbing away as Rentoul said

    Are we seriously witnessing Starmer's end days ?

    I find it most unlikely but it seems if it happens it is coming from those behind him, not those he is facing
    I think no in fairness but I think Reeves and maybe Kendall sackings are the price to keep him in post till May
    A ritual reshuffle is probably needed, then some well placed press articles noting that Keir seems to have a weight lifted off his shoulders and is back to his natural self (I remember such articles with both May and Major, his two closest personality matches in recent PMs, not that they helped in the end).

    The trouble is most of his front bench are decent.

    He has Wes, Yvette and Bridget. All confident media performers. And Ed, though hated by those who will still be insisting next Monday’s 36C in London off the back of a truly mediocre synoptic pattern is a mere bagatelle, has his own charisma and is on top of his brief. Johnny Reynolds is a good business secretary and could move to the treasury. Ange is solid. Lammy seems to divide opinion but I have a soft spot for him. Probably Starmer needs just one or two more.

    None is a leader in waiting either. I don’t think Streeting is quite ready. Otherwise not an obvious Jenrick or Boris type waiting in the wings.

    Just like Reform. No obvious succession.

    Contrast with the Lib Dems where Daisy Cooper is poised, trained up and ready to assume the mantle (just not yet, says Davey).
    Daisy Cooper asked two PMQs yesterday (can the DPM give a cast-iron guarantee (no, obviously, not about anything, but this was about carer's allowance) and can the DPM arrange a joint statement with President Trump that Ukraine... (again, obviously no).

    Good for headlines, perhaps, but perhaps a tad student politics?
    The Lib Dems really need headlines. Because otherwise Reform just get them by default thanks to the BBC’s infatuation with them.

    Those are indeed very political questions designed for soundbites, but a little better than moaning about the PM ducking PMQs when he’s been at major international meetings. In any case the questions will have been agreed with leadership so if there’s a failing it’s a Lib Dem failing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,986
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Leaked texts show Labour MPs had to be ordered to attend the PM’s NATO statement.
    First message: 'You’re encouraged to attend.'
    Second: 'You must attend.'
    Benches still half-empty.
    'That doesn’t augur well for the Prime Minister.'
    — Kevin Schofield, HuffPost UK

    Authority ebbing away as Rentoul said

    Are we seriously witnessing Starmer's end days ?

    I find it most unlikely but it seems if it happens it is coming from those behind him, not those he is facing
    I think no in fairness but I think Reeves and maybe Kendall sackings are the price to keep him in post till May
    A ritual reshuffle is probably needed, then some well placed press articles noting that Keir seems to have a weight lifted off his shoulders and is back to his natural self (I remember such articles with both May and Major, his two closest personality matches in recent PMs, not that they helped in the end).

    The trouble is most of his front bench are decent.

    He has Wes, Yvette and Bridget. All confident media performers. And Ed, though hated by those who will still be insisting next Monday’s 36C in London off the back of a truly mediocre synoptic pattern is a mere bagatelle, has his own charisma and is on top of his brief. Johnny Reynolds is a good business secretary and could move to the treasury. Ange is solid. Lammy seems to divide opinion but I have a soft spot for him. Probably Starmer needs just one or two more.

    None is a leader in waiting either. I don’t think Streeting is quite ready. Otherwise not an obvious Jenrick or Boris type waiting in the wings.

    Just like Reform. No obvious succession.

    Contrast with the Lib Dems where Daisy Cooper is poised, trained up and ready to assume the mantle (just not yet, says Davey).
    Daisy Cooper asked two PMQs yesterday (can the DPM give a cast-iron guarantee (no, obviously, not about anything, but this was about carer's allowance) and can the DPM arrange a joint statement with President Trump that Ukraine... (again, obviously no).

    Good for headlines, perhaps, but perhaps a tad student politics?
    The Lib Dems really need headlines. Because otherwise Reform just get them by default thanks to the BBC’s infatuation with them.

    Those are indeed very political questions designed for soundbites, but a little better than moaning about the PM ducking PMQs when he’s been at major international meetings. In any case the questions will have been agreed with leadership so if there’s a failing it’s a Lib Dem failing.
    The Unknown Stuntman needs to get his wetsuit on again.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,810
    edited June 26
    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, Denmark is on the horizon, we’re off the Swedish coast in the Kattegat (why that Vikings TV show named its town after a piece of sea remains a mystery), and it’s actually now raining. Poor show.

    But this ex-DFDS ship has dozens of ways to eat and drink, with a cocktail bar, night club, wine bar, table service Scandinavian restaurant, Italian restaurant, English style pub, and a lavish Scandinavian eat-as-much-as-you-want while drinking €10 glasses of wine buffet restaurant, from which I have just returned; no wonder DFDS is so often awarded ‘ferry operator of the year’.

    DFDS Dover-Calais and Dunkerque is rubbish though, as are all the short haul ferries.

    But I absolutely love good ferry crossings. The longer the better. I love boarding, climbing the stairs and exploring the indoor areas then heading to deck to watch as we set sail. I love the little cabins and the onboard restaurants. Yet I hate the idea of a cruise. Somehow very different.

    Among my most enjoyable recent long crossings, the overnight from Dakar to Ziguinchor in Senegal beats them all. A comfortable, oh so French experience: pastis on deck from the outside bar on departure, a full dinner, tablecloths and Moroccan wine and starched cuffs and all, for about a tenner. A very comfortable cabin, then a morning travelling up the Casamance past mangroves and palm islands like some latter day Marlow while the cheerful mix of Casamancais returning from the big smoke, German old lady sex tourists and Spanish backpackers take selfies on deck.

    Corsica ferries are also great, with their multiple restaurants and deck plunge pool. It can get a bit hot inside and out though, and the waters are choppy. The Greek island hopping ferries are the smartest in the med, the views are lovely and the extra for business class is very cheap and worth it, and Brittany ferries manage somehow to encapsulate that kids summer holiday excitement perfectly.

    Jersey ferries are a bit shit.

    I’ve not done the hurtigruten up the Norwegian coast or indeed the short crossing from Tarifa to Tangier, but they’re on the list.
    Stena does a decent job across to Holland, in a no-nonsense Dutch sort of way, and provides decent food and drink given the many lorry drivers on board.

    Jersey ferries are very recently under new ownership (indeed, DFDS again, I believe?), Condor being no more; one can hope for an improvement.

    I did Finnlines Finland to Germany a couple of years back, which was a decent long crossing, although they charge through the nose for everything on board hence all the Germans bring their own sausages. It was windy on deck so that was when me and the dog got into women’s football via the cabin TV.

    Corsica I have in mind for a trip next year. Down through France, ferry to Corsica, ferry to Sardinia, ferry to Italy, back nice and slow through Italy.

    I’ve been in Norwegian ports when the Hurtigruten comes in; always a big event bringing news, people, goods and post to small coastal places, and spoken to people who have been on it. It sounds great, in a down to earth no frills Norwegian way, but sadly although it will take dogs, doesn’t really want them on board.

    Meanwhile the captain on this ship is announcing yet another fun activity for the kids, the earlier pirate treasure hunt having finished. At nearly 8pm local time, maybe they’d be better sending the kids to bed so the adults can get down the on board pub?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,613
    edited June 26

    The fix is in? And only cost a few billion quid
    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1938289709132009630?s=19

    Its going to end up like WFA, it won't save anything.
    So Rachel now needs to find £5bn down the back of the sofa.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,598

    viewcode said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Leaked texts show Labour MPs had to be ordered to attend the PM’s NATO statement.
    First message: 'You’re encouraged to attend.'
    Second: 'You must attend.'
    Benches still half-empty.
    'That doesn’t augur well for the Prime Minister.'
    — Kevin Schofield, HuffPost UK

    Authority ebbing away as Rentoul said

    Are we seriously witnessing Starmer's end days ?

    I find it most unlikely but it seems if it happens it is coming from those behind him, not those he is facing
    That's where political enemies do sit.
    As Diane Abbott once said (quoting somebody else). "Your opponents are in front of you, your enemies are behind you".
    Diane has grown on me recently and at least she is authentic, unlike Starmer and others
    I still can't bear her By authentic do you mean without a filter?
    I do not agree with her politics, but she is consistent and speaks with genuine emotion about her causes
    You probably agree about Jeff Bezos
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,659

    The fix is in? And only cost a few billion quid
    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1938289709132009630?s=19

    Its going to end up like WFA, it won't save anything.
    So Rachel now needs to find £5bn down the back of the sofa.
    Looks like the freeze on income tax thresholds will be extended to 2030. Worth about £10bn and not a 'tax rise'
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,617

    The fix is in? And only cost a few billion quid
    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1938289709132009630?s=19

    Its going to end up like WFA, it won't save anything.
    So Rachel now needs to find £5bn behind the sofa.
    A referendum to confirm a penny on income tax to fund defence against the Red Peril. A referendum to add a penny on income tax to save the NHS.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,334
    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, Denmark is on the horizon, we’re off the Swedish coast in the Kattegat (why that Vikings TV show named its town after a piece of sea remains a mystery), and it’s actually now raining. Poor show.

    But this ex-DFDS ship has dozens of ways to eat and drink, with a cocktail bar, night club, wine bar, table service Scandinavian restaurant, Italian restaurant, English style pub, and a lavish Scandinavian eat-as-much-as-you-want while drinking €10 glasses of wine buffet restaurant, from which I have just returned; no wonder DFDS is so often awarded ‘ferry operator of the year’.

    DFDS Dover-Calais and Dunkerque is rubbish though, as are all the short haul ferries.

    But I absolutely love good ferry crossings. The longer the better. I love boarding, climbing the stairs and exploring the indoor areas then heading to deck to watch as we set sail. I love the little cabins and the onboard restaurants. Yet I hate the idea of a cruise. Somehow very different.

    Among my most enjoyable recent long crossings, the overnight from Dakar to Ziguinchor in Senegal beats them all. A comfortable, oh so French experience: pastis on deck from the outside bar on departure, a full dinner, tablecloths and Moroccan wine and starched cuffs and all, for about a tenner. A very comfortable cabin, then a morning travelling up the Casamance past mangroves and palm islands like some latter day Marlow while the cheerful mix of Casamancais returning from the big smoke, German old lady sex tourists and Spanish backpackers take selfies on deck.

    Corsica ferries are also great, with their multiple restaurants and deck plunge pool. It can get a bit hot inside and out though, and the waters are choppy. The Greek island hopping ferries are the smartest in the med, the views are lovely and the extra for business class is very cheap and worth it, and Brittany ferries manage somehow to encapsulate that kids summer holiday excitement perfectly.



    I’ve not done the hurtigruten up the Norwegian coast or indeed the short crossing from Tarifa to Tangier, but they’re on the list.
    They are indeed. DFDS have just taken over from the subsidiary of Brittany Ferries this year so after a bad start hopefully they will sort themselves out.

    Agree with the rest of your post entirely too. I don’t know whether it’s just a nostalgic thing as I probably went on ferries more when younger to France or the UK then travelling as a teen.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,986
    edited June 26

    The fix is in? And only cost a few billion quid
    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1938289709132009630?s=19

    Its going to end up like WFA, it won't save anything.
    So Rachel now needs to find £5bn down the back of the sofa.
    Looks like the freeze on income tax thresholds will be extended to 2030. Worth about £10bn and not a 'tax rise'
    Make it 2035, at which point everybody will be a higher rate tax payer...
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,253

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories could bail Starmer out, but I wonder what they'd want in return.

    They've already given him their demands - reduce welfare bill, more disabled into work, no tax rises in next budget. And they want it confirmed at the despatch box
    How very inspiring.

    Reform are a complete nonsense and rather obscure the picture, but surely there's some sort of thought going on somewhere on the right.
    I suspect the Tories want it to pass, with their help, so Starmer takes the Tory shill hit and if they can recover they don't have to do the cuts themselves (but they ain't recovering to governing level so its moot)
    It's such a nothing of a bill though.

    Imagine 5% cuts all round to welfare - the Tories would love to vote for that on Labour's watch

    What we need is much sharper of course - 50%. And see how the land lies then.
    Benefits should not be cut for those in genuine need but should not be paid to those who have no need

    I know it is my hobby horse but why are millionaires getting free NHS and the state pension ?

    And the triple lock and WFP

    Partly because it creates a community. If the wealthy pay for everything and receive nothing they begin to question why. It’s why the removal of the tax free allowance caused more anger than a 1% rise in the tax rate (which would have raised more money).
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,613

    The fix is in? And only cost a few billion quid
    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1938289709132009630?s=19

    Its going to end up like WFA, it won't save anything.
    So Rachel now needs to find £5bn down the back of the sofa.
    Looks like the freeze on income tax thresholds will be extended to 2030. Worth about £10bn and not a 'tax rise'
    I thought that was pretty much accepted as coming anyway, regardless of these savings being wiped out.

    She needs extra.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,000

    AnneJGP said:

    viewcode said:

    Leaked texts show Labour MPs had to be ordered to attend the PM’s NATO statement.
    First message: 'You’re encouraged to attend.'
    Second: 'You must attend.'
    Benches still half-empty.
    'That doesn’t augur well for the Prime Minister.'
    — Kevin Schofield, HuffPost UK

    Authority ebbing away as Rentoul said

    Are we seriously witnessing Starmer's end days ?

    I find it most unlikely but it seems if it happens it is coming from those behind him, not those he is facing
    It would be difficult to imagine that a PM with 411 seats and four years left of his mandate would be in trouble. It speaks to our febrile times that you might be right :(
    And yet, who is there that will do better?
    Probably due somebody suggesting David Miliband could stand in a by election..........
    A man who wasn't good enough twenty years ago and hasn't gotten better since.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,059

    The fix is in? And only cost a few billion quid
    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1938289709132009630?s=19

    Its going to end up like WFA, it won't save anything.
    So Rachel now needs to find £5bn down the back of the sofa.
    Well this is just Pippa Crerar/Guardian reporting and it seems perhaos early to call it - any concessions will need to convince at least 50 rebels to back down as tge extra costs loses any chance of Tory support.....
    Feels a llittle like number 10 trying to bounce a climbdown..... will be interesting to see what they've actually offered and to which 'senior rebels'
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,422
    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, Denmark is on the horizon, we’re off the Swedish coast in the Kattegat (why that Vikings TV show named its town after a piece of sea remains a mystery), and it’s actually now raining. Poor show.

    But this ex-DFDS ship has dozens of ways to eat and drink, with a cocktail bar, night club, wine bar, table service Scandinavian restaurant, Italian restaurant, English style pub, and a lavish Scandinavian eat-as-much-as-you-want while drinking €10 glasses of wine buffet restaurant, from which I have just returned; no wonder DFDS is so often awarded ‘ferry operator of the year’.

    DFDS Dover-Calais and Dunkerque is rubbish though, as are all the short haul ferries.

    But I absolutely love good ferry crossings. The longer the better. I love boarding, climbing the stairs and exploring the indoor areas then heading to deck to watch as we set sail. I love the little cabins and the onboard restaurants. Yet I hate the idea of a cruise. Somehow very different.

    Among my most enjoyable recent long crossings, the overnight from Dakar to Ziguinchor in Senegal beats them all. A comfortable, oh so French experience: pastis on deck from the outside bar on departure, a full dinner, tablecloths and Moroccan wine and starched cuffs and all, for about a tenner. A very comfortable cabin, then a morning travelling up the Casamance past mangroves and palm islands like some latter day Marlow while the cheerful mix of Casamancais returning from the big smoke, German old lady sex tourists and Spanish backpackers take selfies on deck.

    Corsica ferries are also great, with their multiple restaurants and deck plunge pool. It can get a bit hot inside and out though, and the waters are choppy. The Greek island hopping ferries are the smartest in the med, the views are lovely and the extra for business class is very cheap and worth it, and Brittany ferries manage somehow to encapsulate that kids summer holiday excitement perfectly.

    Jersey ferries are a bit shit.

    I’ve not done the hurtigruten up the Norwegian coast or indeed the short crossing from Tarifa to Tangier, but they’re on the list.
    Top post.

    I love a holiday where you have to take a ferry after the plane. Feels things have really started once you get on.

    Scilly on my list, but silly prices (accomodation, not ferry).
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,422

    The fix is in? And only cost a few billion quid
    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1938289709132009630?s=19

    Its going to end up like WFA, it won't save anything.
    So Rachel now needs to find £5bn down the back of the sofa.
    Looks like the freeze on income tax thresholds will be extended to 2030. Worth about £10bn and not a 'tax rise'
    Make it 2035, at which point everybody will be a higher rate tax payer...
    When mid career nurses and mid career teachers and police officers start paying 40% it's going to create quite a stir. Late in their careers I'm sure some already do.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,253
    TimS said:

    If you want to witness the vulgarity and sheer ignorance of the billionaire class, just watch Bezos wedding in Venice

    It insults the senses and Venetian's have every right to be furious

    Hopefully the will vent their fury appropriately

    It's startling how they've spent so much money on something that actually sounds shit.
    It’s also annoying because I thought Bezos was the best of a bad bunch out of that lot. A bit nerdy, a bit megalomaniacal, but not sheer unadulterated evil. Perhaps he just has bad taste and a blind spot for annoying locals.

    (honourable exception for Bill Gates in all these tech titan comparisons, of course)
    His new wife is a significant influence on him. Mackenzie is great.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,986
    edited June 26

    The fix is in? And only cost a few billion quid
    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1938289709132009630?s=19

    Its going to end up like WFA, it won't save anything.
    So Rachel now needs to find £5bn down the back of the sofa.
    I believe the IFS have said even if they did go through with the £5bn of cuts, the rate of expansion of benefits would still result in a lot more spending on benefits than the government have accounted for.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,659

    The fix is in? And only cost a few billion quid
    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1938289709132009630?s=19

    Its going to end up like WFA, it won't save anything.
    So Rachel now needs to find £5bn down the back of the sofa.
    Looks like the freeze on income tax thresholds will be extended to 2030. Worth about £10bn and not a 'tax rise'
    I thought that was pretty much accepted as coming anyway, regardless of these savings being wiped out.

    She needs extra.
    Maybe 'upgrade' the additional rate start point to be at £100,000 rather than £125,140? After all she can say that Conservatives did that when reducing it from £150,000 to £125,140. Although that would create an effective 67.5% rate from £100,000 to £125,140. Or alternatively remove the personal allowance disallowance taper and just have 50% from £100,000.

    Not sure how much that would raise though.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,986
    Steve Bray has got some competition,

    They complained that police failed to challenge a protest “clearly designed to cause distress”, but warned men “waving Israeli flags” at a Palestine Action march that they could be guilty of breaching the peace.

    Ms Gallastegui, 66, a full-time protester who gave up her job as a coach driver nearly 20 years ago for a life of activism...She previously lived in a tent in Parliament Square for six years after joining the campaign against proposals to change the law to restrict protests in front of the Commons and Lords.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/26/pro-palestinian-protester-dressed-as-holocaust-victim/
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,647
    edited June 26
    viewcode said:

    AnneJGP said:

    viewcode said:

    Leaked texts show Labour MPs had to be ordered to attend the PM’s NATO statement.
    First message: 'You’re encouraged to attend.'
    Second: 'You must attend.'
    Benches still half-empty.
    'That doesn’t augur well for the Prime Minister.'
    — Kevin Schofield, HuffPost UK

    Authority ebbing away as Rentoul said

    Are we seriously witnessing Starmer's end days ?

    I find it most unlikely but it seems if it happens it is coming from those behind him, not those he is facing
    It would be difficult to imagine that a PM with 411 seats and four years left of his mandate would be in trouble. It speaks to our febrile times that you might be right :(
    And yet, who is there that will do better?
    Probably due somebody suggesting David Miliband could stand in a by election..........
    A man who wasn't good enough twenty years ago and hasn't gotten better since.
    (

    “Got”

    )
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,292
    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, Denmark is on the horizon, we’re off the Swedish coast in the Kattegat (why that Vikings TV show named its town after a piece of sea remains a mystery), and it’s actually now raining. Poor show.

    But this ex-DFDS ship has dozens of ways to eat and drink, with a cocktail bar, night club, wine bar, table service Scandinavian restaurant, Italian restaurant, English style pub, and a lavish Scandinavian eat-as-much-as-you-want while drinking €10 glasses of wine buffet restaurant, from which I have just returned; no wonder DFDS is so often awarded ‘ferry operator of the year’.

    DFDS Dover-Calais and Dunkerque is rubbish though, as are all the short haul ferries.

    But I absolutely love good ferry crossings. The longer the better. I love boarding, climbing the stairs and exploring the indoor areas then heading to deck to watch as we set sail. I love the little cabins and the onboard restaurants. Yet I hate the idea of a cruise. Somehow very different.

    Among my most enjoyable recent long crossings, the overnight from Dakar to Ziguinchor in Senegal beats them all. A comfortable, oh so French experience: pastis on deck from the outside bar on departure, a full dinner, tablecloths and Moroccan wine and starched cuffs and all, for about a tenner. A very comfortable cabin, then a morning travelling up the Casamance past mangroves and palm islands like some latter day Marlow while the cheerful mix of Casamancais returning from the big smoke, German old lady sex tourists and Spanish backpackers take selfies on deck.

    Corsica ferries are also great, with their multiple restaurants and deck plunge pool. It can get a bit hot inside and out though, and the waters are choppy. The Greek island hopping ferries are the smartest in the med, the views are lovely and the extra for business class is very cheap and worth it, and Brittany ferries manage somehow to encapsulate that kids summer holiday excitement perfectly.

    Jersey ferries are a bit shit.

    I’ve not done the hurtigruten up the Norwegian coast or indeed the short crossing from Tarifa to Tangier, but they’re on the list.
    I'm afraid I am going to completely trump you

    The best ferry in the world is from Vladivostok to Yokohama. Ideally you go on the very first civilian ferry to take this route, in about 1990, as communism collapsed (as I did). The culture shock of leaving deeply decaying late Soviet Far East Russia, sailing across the Sea of Okhotsk (the Sea of Okhotsk!!! even now the name enchants) and arriving in super hi tech Japan with all its neon and glamour (as was)..... unbeatable

    I imagine even now it is a brilliant journey. Highly recommended

    Amazon River ferries are also something else...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,699

    The fix is in? And only cost a few billion quid
    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1938289709132009630?s=19

    Its going to end up like WFA, it won't save anything.
    So Rachel now needs to find £5bn down the back of the sofa.
    Looks like the freeze on income tax thresholds will be extended to 2030. Worth about £10bn and not a 'tax rise'
    I thought that was pretty much accepted as coming anyway, regardless of these savings being wiped out.

    She needs extra.
    Maybe 'upgrade' the additional rate start point to be at £100,000 rather than £125,140? After all she can say that Conservatives did that when reducing it from £150,000 to £125,140. Although that would create an effective 67.5% rate from £100,000 to £125,140. Or alternatively remove the personal allowance disallowance taper and just have 50% from £100,000.

    Not sure how much that would raise though.
    Rinse pensioners; it's about the only possible target without net negative economic effects ?

    Tough on the reasonably well off elderly (FWIW the march of time means I'm pretty close to that category myself), but needs must, and they tend not to vote Labour anyway.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,699
    TimS said:

    viewcode said:

    AnneJGP said:

    viewcode said:

    Leaked texts show Labour MPs had to be ordered to attend the PM’s NATO statement.
    First message: 'You’re encouraged to attend.'
    Second: 'You must attend.'
    Benches still half-empty.
    'That doesn’t augur well for the Prime Minister.'
    — Kevin Schofield, HuffPost UK

    Authority ebbing away as Rentoul said

    Are we seriously witnessing Starmer's end days ?

    I find it most unlikely but it seems if it happens it is coming from those behind him, not those he is facing
    It would be difficult to imagine that a PM with 411 seats and four years left of his mandate would be in trouble. It speaks to our febrile times that you might be right :(
    And yet, who is there that will do better?
    Probably due somebody suggesting David Miliband could stand in a by election..........
    A man who wasn't good enough twenty years ago and hasn't gotten better since.
    (

    “Got”

    )
    Those are misbegotten parentheses.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,647
    carnforth said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, Denmark is on the horizon, we’re off the Swedish coast in the Kattegat (why that Vikings TV show named its town after a piece of sea remains a mystery), and it’s actually now raining. Poor show.

    But this ex-DFDS ship has dozens of ways to eat and drink, with a cocktail bar, night club, wine bar, table service Scandinavian restaurant, Italian restaurant, English style pub, and a lavish Scandinavian eat-as-much-as-you-want while drinking €10 glasses of wine buffet restaurant, from which I have just returned; no wonder DFDS is so often awarded ‘ferry operator of the year’.

    DFDS Dover-Calais and Dunkerque is rubbish though, as are all the short haul ferries.

    But I absolutely love good ferry crossings. The longer the better. I love boarding, climbing the stairs and exploring the indoor areas then heading to deck to watch as we set sail. I love the little cabins and the onboard restaurants. Yet I hate the idea of a cruise. Somehow very different.

    Among my most enjoyable recent long crossings, the overnight from Dakar to Ziguinchor in Senegal beats them all. A comfortable, oh so French experience: pastis on deck from the outside bar on departure, a full dinner, tablecloths and Moroccan wine and starched cuffs and all, for about a tenner. A very comfortable cabin, then a morning travelling up the Casamance past mangroves and palm islands like some latter day Marlow while the cheerful mix of Casamancais returning from the big smoke, German old lady sex tourists and Spanish backpackers take selfies on deck.

    Corsica ferries are also great, with their multiple restaurants and deck plunge pool. It can get a bit hot inside and out though, and the waters are choppy. The Greek island hopping ferries are the smartest in the med, the views are lovely and the extra for business class is very cheap and worth it, and Brittany ferries manage somehow to encapsulate that kids summer holiday excitement perfectly.

    Jersey ferries are a bit shit.

    I’ve not done the hurtigruten up the Norwegian coast or indeed the short crossing from Tarifa to Tangier, but they’re on the list.
    Top post.

    I love a holiday where you have to take a ferry after the plane. Feels things have really started once you get on.

    Scilly on my list, but silly prices (accomodation, not ferry).
    Scilly also on my list: plane one way, ferry the other. Very small planes are also great fun.

    I think the key with Scilly is to accept the high cost per night and just stay very few nights. 2 or 3 max.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,762
    edited June 26

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories could bail Starmer out, but I wonder what they'd want in return.

    They've already given him their demands - reduce welfare bill, more disabled into work, no tax rises in next budget. And they want it confirmed at the despatch box
    How very inspiring.

    Reform are a complete nonsense and rather obscure the picture, but surely there's some sort of thought going on somewhere on the right.
    I suspect the Tories want it to pass, with their help, so Starmer takes the Tory shill hit and if they can recover they don't have to do the cuts themselves (but they ain't recovering to governing level so its moot)
    It's such a nothing of a bill though.

    Imagine 5% cuts all round to welfare - the Tories would love to vote for that on Labour's watch

    What we need is much sharper of course - 50%. And see how the land lies then.
    Benefits should not be cut for those in genuine need but should not be paid to those who have no need

    I know it is my hobby horse but why are millionaires getting free NHS and the state pension ?

    And the triple lock and WFP

    Partly because it creates a community. If the wealthy pay for everything and receive nothing they begin to question why. It’s why the removal of the tax free allowance caused more anger than a 1% rise in the tax rate (which would have raised more money).
    How many bar the rulers and perhaps the most violent would be rich in a world without policing, courts, defence, transport or even education and healthcare?

    Anyone who has got rich by being clever or hard working should be able to see that they benefit from the state without needing a few hundred quid freebies bunged at them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,292
    Other good ferries

    From mainland Iceland to Vestmannaeyjar, the Westman Islands, and the new volcanic island of Surtsey, which was only born in 1963

    The Cremyll Ferry, possibly the oldest ferry service in the world (still going) from Plymouth to Mount Edgcumbe (at least 1000 years old)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cremyll_Ferry

    The ferry from Rabocheostrovsk, across the White Sea, to the Solovetsky Archipelago, Russia - one of the noomiest places on earth
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,292
    TimS said:

    carnforth said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, Denmark is on the horizon, we’re off the Swedish coast in the Kattegat (why that Vikings TV show named its town after a piece of sea remains a mystery), and it’s actually now raining. Poor show.

    But this ex-DFDS ship has dozens of ways to eat and drink, with a cocktail bar, night club, wine bar, table service Scandinavian restaurant, Italian restaurant, English style pub, and a lavish Scandinavian eat-as-much-as-you-want while drinking €10 glasses of wine buffet restaurant, from which I have just returned; no wonder DFDS is so often awarded ‘ferry operator of the year’.

    DFDS Dover-Calais and Dunkerque is rubbish though, as are all the short haul ferries.

    But I absolutely love good ferry crossings. The longer the better. I love boarding, climbing the stairs and exploring the indoor areas then heading to deck to watch as we set sail. I love the little cabins and the onboard restaurants. Yet I hate the idea of a cruise. Somehow very different.

    Among my most enjoyable recent long crossings, the overnight from Dakar to Ziguinchor in Senegal beats them all. A comfortable, oh so French experience: pastis on deck from the outside bar on departure, a full dinner, tablecloths and Moroccan wine and starched cuffs and all, for about a tenner. A very comfortable cabin, then a morning travelling up the Casamance past mangroves and palm islands like some latter day Marlow while the cheerful mix of Casamancais returning from the big smoke, German old lady sex tourists and Spanish backpackers take selfies on deck.

    Corsica ferries are also great, with their multiple restaurants and deck plunge pool. It can get a bit hot inside and out though, and the waters are choppy. The Greek island hopping ferries are the smartest in the med, the views are lovely and the extra for business class is very cheap and worth it, and Brittany ferries manage somehow to encapsulate that kids summer holiday excitement perfectly.

    Jersey ferries are a bit shit.

    I’ve not done the hurtigruten up the Norwegian coast or indeed the short crossing from Tarifa to Tangier, but they’re on the list.
    Top post.

    I love a holiday where you have to take a ferry after the plane. Feels things have really started once you get on.

    Scilly on my list, but silly prices (accomodation, not ferry).
    Scilly also on my list: plane one way, ferry the other. Very small planes are also great fun.

    I think the key with Scilly is to accept the high cost per night and just stay very few nights. 2 or 3 max.
    I've done the Scillies by ferry and by helicopter. The helicopter is vastly superior and more dramatic

    The Scillies, in the right weather, are magical
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,647
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, Denmark is on the horizon, we’re off the Swedish coast in the Kattegat (why that Vikings TV show named its town after a piece of sea remains a mystery), and it’s actually now raining. Poor show.

    But this ex-DFDS ship has dozens of ways to eat and drink, with a cocktail bar, night club, wine bar, table service Scandinavian restaurant, Italian restaurant, English style pub, and a lavish Scandinavian eat-as-much-as-you-want while drinking €10 glasses of wine buffet restaurant, from which I have just returned; no wonder DFDS is so often awarded ‘ferry operator of the year’.

    DFDS Dover-Calais and Dunkerque is rubbish though, as are all the short haul ferries.

    But I absolutely love good ferry crossings. The longer the better. I love boarding, climbing the stairs and exploring the indoor areas then heading to deck to watch as we set sail. I love the little cabins and the onboard restaurants. Yet I hate the idea of a cruise. Somehow very different.

    Among my most enjoyable recent long crossings, the overnight from Dakar to Ziguinchor in Senegal beats them all. A comfortable, oh so French experience: pastis on deck from the outside bar on departure, a full dinner, tablecloths and Moroccan wine and starched cuffs and all, for about a tenner. A very comfortable cabin, then a morning travelling up the Casamance past mangroves and palm islands like some latter day Marlow while the cheerful mix of Casamancais returning from the big smoke, German old lady sex tourists and Spanish backpackers take selfies on deck.

    Corsica ferries are also great, with their multiple restaurants and deck plunge pool. It can get a bit hot inside and out though, and the waters are choppy. The Greek island hopping ferries are the smartest in the med, the views are lovely and the extra for business class is very cheap and worth it, and Brittany ferries manage somehow to encapsulate that kids summer holiday excitement perfectly.

    Jersey ferries are a bit shit.

    I’ve not done the hurtigruten up the Norwegian coast or indeed the short crossing from Tarifa to Tangier, but they’re on the list.
    I'm afraid I am going to completely trump you

    The best ferry in the world is from Vladivostok to Yokohama. Ideally you go on the very first civilian ferry to take this route, in about 1990, as communism collapsed (as I did). The culture shock of leaving deeply decaying late Soviet Far East Russia, sailing across the Sea of Okhotsk (the Sea of Okhotsk!!! even now the name enchants) and arriving in super hi tech Japan with all its neon and glamour (as was)..... unbeatable

    I imagine even now it is a brilliant journey. Highly recommended

    Amazon River ferries are also something else...
    I’m very happy to be trumped on this, particularly by a professional traveller. I’ll never take the first ferry crossing after the collapse of communism, and I’ll probably never take the ferry from Yokohama to Vladivostok.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,910
    Zohran Mamdani's tax plan is to shift the tax burden towards "whiter neighborhoods".

    https://x.com/DougMackeyCase/status/1938248393362423981
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,067
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, Denmark is on the horizon, we’re off the Swedish coast in the Kattegat (why that Vikings TV show named its town after a piece of sea remains a mystery), and it’s actually now raining. Poor show.

    But this ex-DFDS ship has dozens of ways to eat and drink, with a cocktail bar, night club, wine bar, table service Scandinavian restaurant, Italian restaurant, English style pub, and a lavish Scandinavian eat-as-much-as-you-want while drinking €10 glasses of wine buffet restaurant, from which I have just returned; no wonder DFDS is so often awarded ‘ferry operator of the year’.

    DFDS Dover-Calais and Dunkerque is rubbish though, as are all the short haul ferries.

    But I absolutely love good ferry crossings. The longer the better. I love boarding, climbing the stairs and exploring the indoor areas then heading to deck to watch as we set sail. I love the little cabins and the onboard restaurants. Yet I hate the idea of a cruise. Somehow very different.

    Among my most enjoyable recent long crossings, the overnight from Dakar to Ziguinchor in Senegal beats them all. A comfortable, oh so French experience: pastis on deck from the outside bar on departure, a full dinner, tablecloths and Moroccan wine and starched cuffs and all, for about a tenner. A very comfortable cabin, then a morning travelling up the Casamance past mangroves and palm islands like some latter day Marlow while the cheerful mix of Casamancais returning from the big smoke, German old lady sex tourists and Spanish backpackers take selfies on deck.

    Corsica ferries are also great, with their multiple restaurants and deck plunge pool. It can get a bit hot inside and out though, and the waters are choppy. The Greek island hopping ferries are the smartest in the med, the views are lovely and the extra for business class is very cheap and worth it, and Brittany ferries manage somehow to encapsulate that kids summer holiday excitement perfectly.

    Jersey ferries are a bit shit.

    I’ve not done the hurtigruten up the Norwegian coast or indeed the short crossing from Tarifa to Tangier, but they’re on the list.
    I'm afraid I am going to completely trump you

    The best ferry in the world is from Vladivostok to Yokohama. Ideally you go on the very first civilian ferry to take this route, in about 1990, as communism collapsed (as I did). The culture shock of leaving deeply decaying late Soviet Far East Russia, sailing across the Sea of Okhotsk (the Sea of Okhotsk!!! even now the name enchants) and arriving in super hi tech Japan with all its neon and glamour (as was)..... unbeatable

    I imagine even now it is a brilliant journey. Highly recommended

    Amazon River ferries are also something else...
    Got to admit that beats the Tilbury to Gravesend ferry but when I was on that with my grandparents as a seven year old it was special. After all, we were going to Kent, south of the River.
    There might be dragons!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,292
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, Denmark is on the horizon, we’re off the Swedish coast in the Kattegat (why that Vikings TV show named its town after a piece of sea remains a mystery), and it’s actually now raining. Poor show.

    But this ex-DFDS ship has dozens of ways to eat and drink, with a cocktail bar, night club, wine bar, table service Scandinavian restaurant, Italian restaurant, English style pub, and a lavish Scandinavian eat-as-much-as-you-want while drinking €10 glasses of wine buffet restaurant, from which I have just returned; no wonder DFDS is so often awarded ‘ferry operator of the year’.

    DFDS Dover-Calais and Dunkerque is rubbish though, as are all the short haul ferries.

    But I absolutely love good ferry crossings. The longer the better. I love boarding, climbing the stairs and exploring the indoor areas then heading to deck to watch as we set sail. I love the little cabins and the onboard restaurants. Yet I hate the idea of a cruise. Somehow very different.

    Among my most enjoyable recent long crossings, the overnight from Dakar to Ziguinchor in Senegal beats them all. A comfortable, oh so French experience: pastis on deck from the outside bar on departure, a full dinner, tablecloths and Moroccan wine and starched cuffs and all, for about a tenner. A very comfortable cabin, then a morning travelling up the Casamance past mangroves and palm islands like some latter day Marlow while the cheerful mix of Casamancais returning from the big smoke, German old lady sex tourists and Spanish backpackers take selfies on deck.

    Corsica ferries are also great, with their multiple restaurants and deck plunge pool. It can get a bit hot inside and out though, and the waters are choppy. The Greek island hopping ferries are the smartest in the med, the views are lovely and the extra for business class is very cheap and worth it, and Brittany ferries manage somehow to encapsulate that kids summer holiday excitement perfectly.

    Jersey ferries are a bit shit.

    I’ve not done the hurtigruten up the Norwegian coast or indeed the short crossing from Tarifa to Tangier, but they’re on the list.
    I'm afraid I am going to completely trump you

    The best ferry in the world is from Vladivostok to Yokohama. Ideally you go on the very first civilian ferry to take this route, in about 1990, as communism collapsed (as I did). The culture shock of leaving deeply decaying late Soviet Far East Russia, sailing across the Sea of Okhotsk (the Sea of Okhotsk!!! even now the name enchants) and arriving in super hi tech Japan with all its neon and glamour (as was)..... unbeatable

    I imagine even now it is a brilliant journey. Highly recommended

    Amazon River ferries are also something else...
    I’m very happy to be trumped on this, particularly by a professional traveller. I’ll never take the first ferry crossing after the collapse of communism, and I’ll probably never take the ferry from Yokohama to Vladivostok.
    I just checked and it's not running! - stopped for Covid and has not restarted. Terrible shame

    I guess now everyone can afford to fly, but that loses the magic - I agree with you entirely on ferries, they have a special charm of their own. I did one just last week in the Faroes, from the capital, Thorshavn, to Suderoy, the southernmost island. Brilliant

    The best ones are overnight, then they have the charm of night trains as well, and you wake up in a new world
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,762
    MikeL said:

    The question is if Starmer backs down, what other welfare cuts could he make instead to save the same amount?

    Options could include:

    Reduce Child Benefit threshold back to £50k over even lower. The Winter Fuel threshold of £35k could act as a benchmark which was widely accepted.

    Reduce the uprating of all benefits across the board - ie they don't go up by CPI, instead it's CPI minus 1% or CPI minus 2% or whatever.

    Finally, they could ditch scrapping the two child limit. Of course that hasn't been announced yet so isn't in the existing numbers but it was something they had planned to do.

    On the two child limit, why not have a sliding scale rather than a cut off at two? Don't know if they already do it but would also suggest exemptions for the last birth being twins/triplets etc which should count as 1 imo.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,620
    Leon said:

    Other good ferries

    From mainland Iceland to Vestmannaeyjar, the Westman Islands, and the new volcanic island of Surtsey, which was only born in 1963

    The Cremyll Ferry, possibly the oldest ferry service in the world (still going) from Plymouth to Mount Edgcumbe (at least 1000 years old)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cremyll_Ferry

    The ferry from Rabocheostrovsk, across the White Sea, to the Solovetsky Archipelago, Russia - one of the noomiest places on earth

    Love the Cremyll ferry. Also the Torpoint ferry, marking the true start of the holiday as you cross into Cornwall.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,647
    edited June 26
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, Denmark is on the horizon, we’re off the Swedish coast in the Kattegat (why that Vikings TV show named its town after a piece of sea remains a mystery), and it’s actually now raining. Poor show.

    But this ex-DFDS ship has dozens of ways to eat and drink, with a cocktail bar, night club, wine bar, table service Scandinavian restaurant, Italian restaurant, English style pub, and a lavish Scandinavian eat-as-much-as-you-want while drinking €10 glasses of wine buffet restaurant, from which I have just returned; no wonder DFDS is so often awarded ‘ferry operator of the year’.

    DFDS Dover-Calais and Dunkerque is rubbish though, as are all the short haul ferries.

    But I absolutely love good ferry crossings. The longer the better. I love boarding, climbing the stairs and exploring the indoor areas then heading to deck to watch as we set sail. I love the little cabins and the onboard restaurants. Yet I hate the idea of a cruise. Somehow very different.

    Among my most enjoyable recent long crossings, the overnight from Dakar to Ziguinchor in Senegal beats them all. A comfortable, oh so French experience: pastis on deck from the outside bar on departure, a full dinner, tablecloths and Moroccan wine and starched cuffs and all, for about a tenner. A very comfortable cabin, then a morning travelling up the Casamance past mangroves and palm islands like some latter day Marlow while the cheerful mix of Casamancais returning from the big smoke, German old lady sex tourists and Spanish backpackers take selfies on deck.

    Corsica ferries are also great, with their multiple restaurants and deck plunge pool. It can get a bit hot inside and out though, and the waters are choppy. The Greek island hopping ferries are the smartest in the med, the views are lovely and the extra for business class is very cheap and worth it, and Brittany ferries manage somehow to encapsulate that kids summer holiday excitement perfectly.

    Jersey ferries are a bit shit.

    I’ve not done the hurtigruten up the Norwegian coast or indeed the short crossing from Tarifa to Tangier, but they’re on the list.
    I'm afraid I am going to completely trump you

    The best ferry in the world is from Vladivostok to Yokohama. Ideally you go on the very first civilian ferry to take this route, in about 1990, as communism collapsed (as I did). The culture shock of leaving deeply decaying late Soviet Far East Russia, sailing across the Sea of Okhotsk (the Sea of Okhotsk!!! even now the name enchants) and arriving in super hi tech Japan with all its neon and glamour (as was)..... unbeatable

    I imagine even now it is a brilliant journey. Highly recommended

    Amazon River ferries are also something else...
    I’m very happy to be trumped on this, particularly by a professional traveller. I’ll never take the first ferry crossing after the collapse of communism, and I’ll probably never take the ferry from Yokohama to Vladivostok.
    I just checked and it's not running! - stopped for Covid and has not restarted. Terrible shame

    I guess now everyone can afford to fly, but that loses the magic - I agree with you entirely on ferries, they have a special charm of their own. I did one just last week in the Faroes, from the capital, Thorshavn, to Suderoy, the southernmost island. Brilliant

    The best ones are overnight, then they have the charm of night trains as well, and you wake up in a new world
    I have a plan for next year which mixes trains and ferries, but there’s a choice of 2: either ferry to Santander then trains across Spain, ferry to Tangier and night train to Marrakech, or ferry and trains across Europe to Istanbul then the sleeper train to the Eastern border with a ferry across Lake Van. You can in theory go on from there by train to Tehran but that leg depends on whether they’ve managed regime change by 2026.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,292
    edited June 26
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, Denmark is on the horizon, we’re off the Swedish coast in the Kattegat (why that Vikings TV show named its town after a piece of sea remains a mystery), and it’s actually now raining. Poor show.

    But this ex-DFDS ship has dozens of ways to eat and drink, with a cocktail bar, night club, wine bar, table service Scandinavian restaurant, Italian restaurant, English style pub, and a lavish Scandinavian eat-as-much-as-you-want while drinking €10 glasses of wine buffet restaurant, from which I have just returned; no wonder DFDS is so often awarded ‘ferry operator of the year’.

    DFDS Dover-Calais and Dunkerque is rubbish though, as are all the short haul ferries.

    But I absolutely love good ferry crossings. The longer the better. I love boarding, climbing the stairs and exploring the indoor areas then heading to deck to watch as we set sail. I love the little cabins and the onboard restaurants. Yet I hate the idea of a cruise. Somehow very different.

    Among my most enjoyable recent long crossings, the overnight from Dakar to Ziguinchor in Senegal beats them all. A comfortable, oh so French experience: pastis on deck from the outside bar on departure, a full dinner, tablecloths and Moroccan wine and starched cuffs and all, for about a tenner. A very comfortable cabin, then a morning travelling up the Casamance past mangroves and palm islands like some latter day Marlow while the cheerful mix of Casamancais returning from the big smoke, German old lady sex tourists and Spanish backpackers take selfies on deck.

    Corsica ferries are also great, with their multiple restaurants and deck plunge pool. It can get a bit hot inside and out though, and the waters are choppy. The Greek island hopping ferries are the smartest in the med, the views are lovely and the extra for business class is very cheap and worth it, and Brittany ferries manage somehow to encapsulate that kids summer holiday excitement perfectly.

    Jersey ferries are a bit shit.

    I’ve not done the hurtigruten up the Norwegian coast or indeed the short crossing from Tarifa to Tangier, but they’re on the list.
    I'm afraid I am going to completely trump you

    The best ferry in the world is from Vladivostok to Yokohama. Ideally you go on the very first civilian ferry to take this route, in about 1990, as communism collapsed (as I did). The culture shock of leaving deeply decaying late Soviet Far East Russia, sailing across the Sea of Okhotsk (the Sea of Okhotsk!!! even now the name enchants) and arriving in super hi tech Japan with all its neon and glamour (as was)..... unbeatable

    I imagine even now it is a brilliant journey. Highly recommended

    Amazon River ferries are also something else...
    I’m very happy to be trumped on this, particularly by a professional traveller. I’ll never take the first ferry crossing after the collapse of communism, and I’ll probably never take the ferry from Yokohama to Vladivostok.
    I just checked and it's not running! - stopped for Covid and has not restarted. Terrible shame

    I guess now everyone can afford to fly, but that loses the magic - I agree with you entirely on ferries, they have a special charm of their own. I did one just last week in the Faroes, from the capital, Thorshavn, to Suderoy, the southernmost island. Brilliant

    The best ones are overnight, then they have the charm of night trains as well, and you wake up in a new world
    I have a plan for next year which mixes trains and ferries, but there’s a choice of 2: either ferry to Santander then trains across Spain, ferry to Tangier and night train to Marrakech, or ferry and trains across Europe to Istanbul then the sleeper train to the Eastern border with a ferry across Lake Van. You can in theory go on from there by train to Tehran but that leg depends on whether they’ve managed regime change by 2026.
    I found the ferry from Spain to Tangier a bit disappointing, but then it was

    1. Winter - and cold

    and

    2. I was with my brother who decided this voyage would be the ideal moment to drink 3/4 of a bottle of whisky
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,647
    edited June 26
    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    viewcode said:

    AnneJGP said:

    viewcode said:

    Leaked texts show Labour MPs had to be ordered to attend the PM’s NATO statement.
    First message: 'You’re encouraged to attend.'
    Second: 'You must attend.'
    Benches still half-empty.
    'That doesn’t augur well for the Prime Minister.'
    — Kevin Schofield, HuffPost UK

    Authority ebbing away as Rentoul said

    Are we seriously witnessing Starmer's end days ?

    I find it most unlikely but it seems if it happens it is coming from those behind him, not those he is facing
    It would be difficult to imagine that a PM with 411 seats and four years left of his mandate would be in trouble. It speaks to our febrile times that you might be right :(
    And yet, who is there that will do better?
    Probably due somebody suggesting David Miliband could stand in a by election..........
    A man who wasn't good enough twenty years ago and hasn't gotten better since.
    (

    “Got”

    )
    Those are misbegotten parentheses.
    I typed in (luckyguy filter on) and (luckyguy filter off) but by using the < symbol I seem to have made our resident grammar stickler invisible.

    It’s the one thing on which he and I agree though.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,253

    The fix is in? And only cost a few billion quid
    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1938289709132009630?s=19

    Savings of £5bn offset by “a few billion” in additional spending
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,422
    One of the Hampshire bus students:

    "Student Freddie Sampson was one of 19 passengers on board.

    The 18-year-old was sitting at the front of the bus on the top deck and described the moment it went over the kerb.

    "We ran into a lamp-post and the whole windscreen shattered," he said.

    "It was like we couldn't stop and had to weave through traffic trying not to hit any cars and then the bus driver lost control - we went flying into the river.

    "It was all a bit manic. No-one really knew what was going on. I looked out the front to see people moving out of the way, like cars out the front… I looked round... they were all confused and scared.""
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,613
    Nigelb said:

    The fix is in? And only cost a few billion quid
    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1938289709132009630?s=19

    Its going to end up like WFA, it won't save anything.
    So Rachel now needs to find £5bn down the back of the sofa.
    Looks like the freeze on income tax thresholds will be extended to 2030. Worth about £10bn and not a 'tax rise'
    I thought that was pretty much accepted as coming anyway, regardless of these savings being wiped out.

    She needs extra.
    Maybe 'upgrade' the additional rate start point to be at £100,000 rather than £125,140? After all she can say that Conservatives did that when reducing it from £150,000 to £125,140. Although that would create an effective 67.5% rate from £100,000 to £125,140. Or alternatively remove the personal allowance disallowance taper and just have 50% from £100,000.

    Not sure how much that would raise though.
    Rinse pensioners; it's about the only possible target without net negative economic effects ?

    Tough on the reasonably well off elderly (FWIW the march of time means I'm pretty close to that category myself), but needs must, and they tend not to vote Labour anyway.
    Last time they went after pensioners they ran into the WFA imbroglio.

    To be frank, it’s looking quite unlikely that they’ve got any political strength to do much of anything.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,059
    edited June 26

    The fix is in? And only cost a few billion quid
    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1938289709132009630?s=19

    Savings of £5bn offset by “a few billion” in additional spending
    And fundamentally not sorting the issues.
    Labour backbenchers (if this goes through) now know just sign a reasoned amendment and the government will concede irrespective of the cost.
    Landslides lead to weak government
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,059
    edited June 26

    Nigelb said:

    The fix is in? And only cost a few billion quid
    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1938289709132009630?s=19

    Its going to end up like WFA, it won't save anything.
    So Rachel now needs to find £5bn down the back of the sofa.
    Looks like the freeze on income tax thresholds will be extended to 2030. Worth about £10bn and not a 'tax rise'
    I thought that was pretty much accepted as coming anyway, regardless of these savings being wiped out.

    She needs extra.
    Maybe 'upgrade' the additional rate start point to be at £100,000 rather than £125,140? After all she can say that Conservatives did that when reducing it from £150,000 to £125,140. Although that would create an effective 67.5% rate from £100,000 to £125,140. Or alternatively remove the personal allowance disallowance taper and just have 50% from £100,000.

    Not sure how much that would raise though.
    Rinse pensioners; it's about the only possible target without net negative economic effects ?

    Tough on the reasonably well off elderly (FWIW the march of time means I'm pretty close to that category myself), but needs must, and they tend not to vote Labour anyway.
    Last time they went after pensioners they ran into the WFA imbroglio.

    To be frank, it’s looking quite unlikely that they’ve got any political strength to do much of anything.
    eventually the markets will notice and pounce
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,804

    MikeL said:

    The question is if Starmer backs down, what other welfare cuts could he make instead to save the same amount?

    Options could include:

    Reduce Child Benefit threshold back to £50k over even lower. The Winter Fuel threshold of £35k could act as a benchmark which was widely accepted.

    Reduce the uprating of all benefits across the board - ie they don't go up by CPI, instead it's CPI minus 1% or CPI minus 2% or whatever.

    Finally, they could ditch scrapping the two child limit. Of course that hasn't been announced yet so isn't in the existing numbers but it was something they had planned to do.

    On the two child limit, why not have a sliding scale rather than a cut off at two? Don't know if they already do it but would also suggest exemptions for the last birth being twins/triplets etc which should count as 1 imo.
    There is already an exemption for twins, triplets etc.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,068

    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1938277337566531950

    Starmer claimed he had no choice but to represent a woman arrested over 500 times for breaking into RAF bases.

    That’s not true. She said he VOLUNTEERED to do it FOR FREE.

    Maybe we should have a defamation trial and Bobby J can represent her
    Why would anyone trust anything Starmer said?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,067

    Nigelb said:

    The fix is in? And only cost a few billion quid
    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1938289709132009630?s=19

    Its going to end up like WFA, it won't save anything.
    So Rachel now needs to find £5bn down the back of the sofa.
    Looks like the freeze on income tax thresholds will be extended to 2030. Worth about £10bn and not a 'tax rise'
    I thought that was pretty much accepted as coming anyway, regardless of these savings being wiped out.

    She needs extra.
    Maybe 'upgrade' the additional rate start point to be at £100,000 rather than £125,140? After all she can say that Conservatives did that when reducing it from £150,000 to £125,140. Although that would create an effective 67.5% rate from £100,000 to £125,140. Or alternatively remove the personal allowance disallowance taper and just have 50% from £100,000.

    Not sure how much that would raise though.
    Rinse pensioners; it's about the only possible target without net negative economic effects ?

    Tough on the reasonably well off elderly (FWIW the march of time means I'm pretty close to that category myself), but needs must, and they tend not to vote Labour anyway.
    Last time they went after pensioners they ran into the WFA imbroglio.

    To be frank, it’s looking quite unlikely that they’ve got any political strength to do much of anything.
    To go back to the fifties “Time we had the Liberals back!”
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,804
    The reality is nobody will ever have the guts to take money away from people who are getting it (unless they are wealthy).

    The only change they will be able to make is for new claimants.

    The numbers are beyond breathtaking. The number of people receiving PIP has gone from 2.1m in 2019 to 3.7m today.

    So the number of people with a long-term physical or mental health condition has, supposedly, nearly doubled in the last six years.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj924xvzrr2o
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,000
    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    viewcode said:

    AnneJGP said:

    viewcode said:

    Leaked texts show Labour MPs had to be ordered to attend the PM’s NATO statement.
    First message: 'You’re encouraged to attend.'
    Second: 'You must attend.'
    Benches still half-empty.
    'That doesn’t augur well for the Prime Minister.'
    — Kevin Schofield, HuffPost UK

    Authority ebbing away as Rentoul said

    Are we seriously witnessing Starmer's end days ?

    I find it most unlikely but it seems if it happens it is coming from those behind him, not those he is facing
    It would be difficult to imagine that a PM with 411 seats and four years left of his mandate would be in trouble. It speaks to our febrile times that you might be right :(
    And yet, who is there that will do better?
    Probably due somebody suggesting David Miliband could stand in a by election..........
    A man who wasn't good enough twenty years ago and hasn't gotten better since.
    (

    “Got”

    )
    Those are misbegotten parentheses.
    That point will be forgotten.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,059
    edited June 26
    Sounds like the concession is existing PIP claimants will not be affected by the changes. Not sure that is compatible with the equality act? Can you treat people assessed with the same disability differently?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,253

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories could bail Starmer out, but I wonder what they'd want in return.

    They've already given him their demands - reduce welfare bill, more disabled into work, no tax rises in next budget. And they want it confirmed at the despatch box
    How very inspiring.

    Reform are a complete nonsense and rather obscure the picture, but surely there's some sort of thought going on somewhere on the right.
    I suspect the Tories want it to pass, with their help, so Starmer takes the Tory shill hit and if they can recover they don't have to do the cuts themselves (but they ain't recovering to governing level so its moot)
    It's such a nothing of a bill though.

    Imagine 5% cuts all round to welfare - the Tories would love to vote for that on Labour's watch

    What we need is much sharper of course - 50%. And see how the land lies then.
    Benefits should not be cut for those in genuine need but should not be paid to those who have no need

    I know it is my hobby horse but why are millionaires getting free NHS and the state pension ?

    And the triple lock and WFP

    Partly because it creates a community. If the wealthy pay for everything and receive nothing they begin to question why. It’s why the removal of the tax free allowance caused more anger than a 1% rise in the tax rate (which would have raised more money).
    How many bar the rulers and perhaps the most violent would be rich in a world without policing, courts, defence, transport or even education and healthcare?

    Anyone who has got rich by being clever or hard working should be able to see that they benefit from the state without needing
    a few hundred quid freebies bunged at them.
    It touches on the question of “fairness”.

    Clearly something like WFA - people don’t need the money. Education is understood (although VAT has raised such angst because the perspective is they are choosing not to consume state resources and are being taxed for doing so).

    The NHS is so core to how the state presents itself that it would seem a fundamental change in the relationship. Moreover, how are you going to do it? NHS hospitals asking people for proof of income? Or just denying emergency treatment to people on wealthy post codes?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,377
    Nigelb said:

    The fix is in? And only cost a few billion quid
    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1938289709132009630?s=19

    Its going to end up like WFA, it won't save anything.
    So Rachel now needs to find £5bn down the back of the sofa.
    Looks like the freeze on income tax thresholds will be extended to 2030. Worth about £10bn and not a 'tax rise'
    I thought that was pretty much accepted as coming anyway, regardless of these savings being wiped out.

    She needs extra.
    Maybe 'upgrade' the additional rate start point to be at £100,000 rather than £125,140? After all she can say that Conservatives did that when reducing it from £150,000 to £125,140. Although that would create an effective 67.5% rate from £100,000 to £125,140. Or alternatively remove the personal allowance disallowance taper and just have 50% from £100,000.

    Not sure how much that would raise though.
    Rinse pensioners; it's about the only possible target without net negative economic effects ?

    Tough on the reasonably well off elderly (FWIW the march of time means I'm pretty close to that category myself), but needs must, and they tend not to vote Labour anyway.
    End higher rate tax relief on pension contributions. It only affects the higher-paid (such as political journalists) and will boost HM Treasury every payday.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,864

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories could bail Starmer out, but I wonder what they'd want in return.

    They've already given him their demands - reduce welfare bill, more disabled into work, no tax rises in next budget. And they want it confirmed at the despatch box
    How very inspiring.

    Reform are a complete nonsense and rather obscure the picture, but surely there's some sort of thought going on somewhere on the right.
    I suspect the Tories want it to pass, with their help, so Starmer takes the Tory shill hit and if they can recover they don't have to do the cuts themselves (but they ain't recovering to governing level so its moot)
    It's such a nothing of a bill though.

    Imagine 5% cuts all round to welfare - the Tories would love to vote for that on Labour's watch

    What we need is much sharper of course - 50%. And see how the land lies then.
    Benefits should not be cut for those in genuine need but should not be paid to those who have no need

    I know it is my hobby horse but why are millionaires getting free NHS and the state pension ?

    And the triple lock and WFP

    Partly because it creates a community. If the wealthy pay for everything and receive nothing they begin to question why. It’s why the removal of the tax free allowance caused more anger than a 1% rise in the tax rate (which would have raised more money).
    How many bar the rulers and perhaps the most violent would be rich in a world without policing, courts, defence, transport or even education and healthcare?

    Anyone who has got rich by being clever or hard working should be able to see that they benefit from the state without needing
    a few hundred quid freebies bunged at them.
    It touches on the question of “fairness”.

    Clearly something like WFA - people don’t need the money. Education is understood (although VAT has raised such angst because the perspective is they are choosing not to consume state resources and are being taxed for doing so).

    The NHS is so core to how the state presents itself that it would seem a fundamental change in the relationship. Moreover, how are you going to do it? NHS hospitals asking people for proof of income? Or just denying emergency treatment to people on wealthy post codes?
    Unfortunately we are at the point where the accepted view of the NHS ( and pensions ) has to fundamentally change because the country cannot afford to give freebies to those who can pay

    Nobody would be denied emergency treatment but where appropriate the patient should reimburse the NHS for its care or at least part of it

    I know it is an extreme example, but should someone like Bezos receive free NHS and a pension when he is 67

    This needs a grown up debate and not just this is too difficult to do

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,696
    Is it me or is mobile reception actually worse now than the 4G era ?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,253
    MikeL said:

    The reality is nobody will ever have the guts to take money away from people who are getting it (unless they are wealthy).

    The only change they will be able to make is for new claimants.

    The numbers are beyond breathtaking. The number of people receiving PIP has gone from 2.1m in 2019 to 3.7m today.

    So the number of people with a long-term physical or mental health condition has, supposedly, nearly doubled in the last six years.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj924xvzrr2o

    That’s why they need to bring back in person assessments rather than Zoom which can easily be faked
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,472
    Thanks to Bart for digging in to the background of Reform councillors.

    I'm going to take it as confirmation bias of something that I've been worried about for a while - too many people see politics as a spectator sport, rather than something they need to get involved in. Because more people aren't getting involved in the daily grind of politics, the quality of people available is lower than it would be, if there were more people to choose from.

    And so a lot of Reform councillors are councillors from other parties, because there aren't suddenly a thousand new people who are willing to put the time in to get involved. I spent some time doing some campaigning for the Green party, back in the day, but I never wanted to commit the time to try to become a councillor.

    A lot of people are unhappy about politics and politicians, and are very quick to damn them all as being all the same - but the obvious remedy for that feeling in a democracy is to get involved yourself to create a better alternative that you can present to the electorate. I think that this is the source of a fundamental weakness in modern democratic politics. Parties have professionalised and talk about "retail politics", as though they seek to provide a service that the voter buys with their vote. But this disassociates voters from playing an active part in the political process. No-one thinks that the way to fix a problem with Tesco providing a shit service is to volunteer and help them to improve, but that's precisely what is required of us as citizens in a democracy, if we think that our politics is shit.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,253

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories could bail Starmer out, but I wonder what they'd want in return.

    They've already given him their demands - reduce welfare bill, more disabled into work, no tax rises in next budget. And they want it confirmed at the despatch box
    How very inspiring.

    Reform are a complete nonsense and rather obscure the picture, but surely there's some sort of thought going on somewhere on the right.
    I suspect the Tories want it to pass, with their help, so Starmer takes the Tory shill hit and if they can recover they don't have to do the cuts themselves (but they ain't recovering to governing level so its moot)
    It's such a nothing of a bill though.

    Imagine 5% cuts all round to welfare - the Tories would love to vote for that on Labour's watch

    What we need is much sharper of course - 50%. And see how the land lies then.
    Benefits should not be cut for those in genuine need but should not be paid to those who have no need

    I know it is my hobby horse but why are millionaires getting free NHS and the state pension ?

    And the triple lock and WFP

    Partly because it creates a community. If the wealthy pay for everything and receive nothing they begin to question why. It’s why the removal of the tax free allowance caused more anger than a 1% rise in the tax rate (which would have raised more money).
    How many bar the rulers and perhaps the most violent would be rich in a world without policing, courts, defence, transport or even education and healthcare?

    Anyone who has got rich by being clever or hard working should be able to see that they benefit from the state without needing
    a few hundred quid freebies bunged at them.
    It touches on the question of “fairness”.

    Clearly something like WFA - people don’t need the money. Education is understood (although VAT has raised such angst because the perspective is they are choosing not to consume state resources and are being taxed for doing so).

    The NHS is so core to how the state presents itself that it would seem a fundamental change in the relationship. Moreover, how are you going to do it? NHS hospitals asking people for proof of income? Or just denying emergency treatment to people on wealthy post codes?
    Unfortunately we are at the point where the accepted view of the NHS ( and pensions ) has to fundamentally change because the country cannot afford to give freebies to those who can pay

    Nobody would be denied emergency treatment but where appropriate the patient should reimburse the NHS for its care or at least part of it

    I know it is an extreme example, but should someone like Bezos receive free
    NHS and a pension when he is 67

    This needs a grown up debate and not just this is too difficult to do

    Don’t forget that pensions are already taxed. I’d prefer an approach of a Lowis flat rate state pension and then significant targeted top ups rather than not paying anyone.

    But any of these measures are sticking plasters. The state needs to do less and do it better.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,804

    MikeL said:

    The reality is nobody will ever have the guts to take money away from people who are getting it (unless they are wealthy).

    The only change they will be able to make is for new claimants.

    The numbers are beyond breathtaking. The number of people receiving PIP has gone from 2.1m in 2019 to 3.7m today.

    So the number of people with a long-term physical or mental health condition has, supposedly, nearly doubled in the last six years.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj924xvzrr2o

    That’s why they need to bring back in person assessments rather than Zoom which can easily be faked
    If you have a long-term physical or mental health condition shouldn't you be receiving treatment for it?

    And treatment isn't just a chat with a GP.

    I would say to receive PIP you should have to be under the treatment of a specialist, to whom you have been referred by your GP.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,059

    Sounds like the concession is existing PIP claimants will not be affected by the changes. Not sure that is compatible with the equality act? Can you treat people assessed with the same disability differently?

    The.cost of this aspect according to The Telegraph is 1.5 billion a year that will need to be found and there are other costs with tweaking agreed. Tax rises to cover in the Autumn not denied by number 10.

    The MP for Crawley (Peter Lamb, not in the Socialist campaign group) is first out of the blocks to say not enough, still voting against but for others to decide their approach
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,059
    edited June 26
    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    The reality is nobody will ever have the guts to take money away from people who are getting it (unless they are wealthy).

    The only change they will be able to make is for new claimants.

    The numbers are beyond breathtaking. The number of people receiving PIP has gone from 2.1m in 2019 to 3.7m today.

    So the number of people with a long-term physical or mental health condition has, supposedly, nearly doubled in the last six years.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj924xvzrr2o

    That’s why they need to bring back in person assessments rather than Zoom which can easily be faked
    If you have a long-term physical or mental health condition shouldn't you be receiving treatment for it?

    And treatment isn't just a chat with a GP.

    I would say to receive PIP you should have to be under the treatment of a specialist, to whom you have been referred by your GP.
    Do blind people have ongoing treatment? People with chronic arthritis? Someone whos had both legs amputated? How about psychosis? Long term conditions might not be 'curable' and there is little budget for continual treatment. Mental health, in particular, is chronically underfunded and badly administered by the NHS. Not the fault of the sufferers.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,237
    Pulpstar said:

    Is it me or is mobile reception actually worse now than the 4G era ?

    Cuz 5G is all about the mind control, innit?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,659
    Looks like the tax rises in the 2025 Budget will be HUUUUUGE. And Rachel can simply say 'we have to pay for a one in a generation need to increase defence funding'.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,804

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    The reality is nobody will ever have the guts to take money away from people who are getting it (unless they are wealthy).

    The only change they will be able to make is for new claimants.

    The numbers are beyond breathtaking. The number of people receiving PIP has gone from 2.1m in 2019 to 3.7m today.

    So the number of people with a long-term physical or mental health condition has, supposedly, nearly doubled in the last six years.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj924xvzrr2o

    That’s why they need to bring back in person assessments rather than Zoom which can easily be faked
    If you have a long-term physical or mental health condition shouldn't you be receiving treatment for it?

    And treatment isn't just a chat with a GP.

    I would say to receive PIP you should have to be under the treatment of a specialist, to whom you have been referred by your GP.
    Do blind people have ongoing treatment? People with chronic arthritis? Someone whos had both legs amputated? How about psychosis? Long term conditions might not be 'curable' and there is little budget for continual treatment. Mental health, in particular, is chronically underfunded and badly administered by the NHS. Not the fault of the sufferers.
    OK, sure - you should need to have had some formal treatment at some point.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 778

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    The reality is nobody will ever have the guts to take money away from people who are getting it (unless they are wealthy).

    The only change they will be able to make is for new claimants.

    The numbers are beyond breathtaking. The number of people receiving PIP has gone from 2.1m in 2019 to 3.7m today.

    So the number of people with a long-term physical or mental health condition has, supposedly, nearly doubled in the last six years.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj924xvzrr2o

    That’s why they need to bring back in person assessments rather than Zoom which can easily be faked
    If you have a long-term physical or mental health condition shouldn't you be receiving treatment for it?

    And treatment isn't just a chat with a GP.

    I would say to receive PIP you should have to be under the treatment of a specialist, to whom you have been referred by your GP.
    Do blind people have ongoing treatment? People with chronic arthritis? Someone whos had both legs amputated? How about psychosis? Long term conditions might not be 'curable' and there is little budget for continual treatment. Mental health, in particular, is chronically underfunded and badly administered by the NHS. Not the fault of the sufferers.
    Even clearly psychotic people can't get assessments through MHAS and are palmed off onto the Police who have to sit with them in A and E until everyone gives up and goes home. Meanwhile a fifteen year old can break into three cars unencumbered by the local constabulary.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 778
    Pulpstar said:

    Is it me or is mobile reception actually worse now than the 4G era ?

    My 5g signal recently, and silently, downgraded to 4g and it's much the same. Presumably they're shaking the Chinese out of the tower.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,910
    https://x.com/peston/status/1938312795399016812

    I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.

    There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.

    Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.

    My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,234
    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    The reality is nobody will ever have the guts to take money away from people who are getting it (unless they are wealthy).

    The only change they will be able to make is for new claimants.

    The numbers are beyond breathtaking. The number of people receiving PIP has gone from 2.1m in 2019 to 3.7m today.

    So the number of people with a long-term physical or mental health condition has, supposedly, nearly doubled in the last six years.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj924xvzrr2o

    That’s why they need to bring back in person assessments rather than Zoom which can easily be faked
    If you have a long-term physical or mental health condition shouldn't you be receiving treatment for it?

    And treatment isn't just a chat with a GP.

    I would say to receive PIP you should have to be under the treatment of a specialist, to whom you have been referred by your GP.
    And what if the waiting list to see one is years and years?
    What then?
    And, of course, legs don't grow back. Would you need the regular consultation of a specialist to keep confirming that?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,377
    USA vs Iran – 90 seconds of Jimmy Carr in America:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/fSNU-gY8o3E
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,059
    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    The reality is nobody will ever have the guts to take money away from people who are getting it (unless they are wealthy).

    The only change they will be able to make is for new claimants.

    The numbers are beyond breathtaking. The number of people receiving PIP has gone from 2.1m in 2019 to 3.7m today.

    So the number of people with a long-term physical or mental health condition has, supposedly, nearly doubled in the last six years.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj924xvzrr2o

    That’s why they need to bring back in person assessments rather than Zoom which can easily be faked
    If you have a long-term physical or mental health condition shouldn't you be receiving treatment for it?

    And treatment isn't just a chat with a GP.

    I would say to receive PIP you should have to be under the treatment of a specialist, to whom you have been referred by your GP.
    Do blind people have ongoing treatment? People with chronic arthritis? Someone whos had both legs amputated? How about psychosis? Long term conditions might not be 'curable' and there is little budget for continual treatment. Mental health, in particular, is chronically underfunded and badly administered by the NHS. Not the fault of the sufferers.
    OK, sure - you should need to have had some formal treatment at some point.
    And most PIP recipients have. The assessment and reassessment process is humiliating, its not a case of 'sign on and receive'
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,735

    Nigelb said:

    The fix is in? And only cost a few billion quid
    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1938289709132009630?s=19

    Its going to end up like WFA, it won't save anything.
    So Rachel now needs to find £5bn down the back of the sofa.
    Looks like the freeze on income tax thresholds will be extended to 2030. Worth about £10bn and not a 'tax rise'
    I thought that was pretty much accepted as coming anyway, regardless of these savings being wiped out.

    She needs extra.
    Maybe 'upgrade' the additional rate start point to be at £100,000 rather than £125,140? After all she can say that Conservatives did that when reducing it from £150,000 to £125,140. Although that would create an effective 67.5% rate from £100,000 to £125,140. Or alternatively remove the personal allowance disallowance taper and just have 50% from £100,000.

    Not sure how much that would raise though.
    Rinse pensioners; it's about the only possible target without net negative economic effects ?

    Tough on the reasonably well off elderly (FWIW the march of time means I'm pretty close to that category myself), but needs must, and they tend not to vote Labour anyway.
    Last time they went after pensioners they ran into the WFA imbroglio.

    To be frank, it’s looking quite unlikely that they’ve got any political strength to do much of anything.
    To go back to the fifties “Time we had the Liberals back!”
    Last Liberal PM was Lloyd George, 1922.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,810
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    carnforth said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, Denmark is on the horizon, we’re off the Swedish coast in the Kattegat (why that Vikings TV show named its town after a piece of sea remains a mystery), and it’s actually now raining. Poor show.

    But this ex-DFDS ship has dozens of ways to eat and drink, with a cocktail bar, night club, wine bar, table service Scandinavian restaurant, Italian restaurant, English style pub, and a lavish Scandinavian eat-as-much-as-you-want while drinking €10 glasses of wine buffet restaurant, from which I have just returned; no wonder DFDS is so often awarded ‘ferry operator of the year’.

    DFDS Dover-Calais and Dunkerque is rubbish though, as are all the short haul ferries.

    But I absolutely love good ferry crossings. The longer the better. I love boarding, climbing the stairs and exploring the indoor areas then heading to deck to watch as we set sail. I love the little cabins and the onboard restaurants. Yet I hate the idea of a cruise. Somehow very different.

    Among my most enjoyable recent long crossings, the overnight from Dakar to Ziguinchor in Senegal beats them all. A comfortable, oh so French experience: pastis on deck from the outside bar on departure, a full dinner, tablecloths and Moroccan wine and starched cuffs and all, for about a tenner. A very comfortable cabin, then a morning travelling up the Casamance past mangroves and palm islands like some latter day Marlow while the cheerful mix of Casamancais returning from the big smoke, German old lady sex tourists and Spanish backpackers take selfies on deck.

    Corsica ferries are also great, with their multiple restaurants and deck plunge pool. It can get a bit hot inside and out though, and the waters are choppy. The Greek island hopping ferries are the smartest in the med, the views are lovely and the extra for business class is very cheap and worth it, and Brittany ferries manage somehow to encapsulate that kids summer holiday excitement perfectly.

    Jersey ferries are a bit shit.

    I’ve not done the hurtigruten up the Norwegian coast or indeed the short crossing from Tarifa to Tangier, but they’re on the list.
    Top post.

    I love a holiday where you have to take a ferry after the plane. Feels things have really started once you get on.

    Scilly on my list, but silly prices (accomodation, not ferry).
    Scilly also on my list: plane one way, ferry the other. Very small planes are also great fun.

    I think the key with Scilly is to accept the high cost per night and just stay very few nights. 2 or 3 max.
    I've done the Scillies by ferry and by helicopter. The helicopter is vastly superior and more dramatic

    The Scillies, in the right weather, are magical
    I'm afraid I am going to completely trump you. To coin a phrase.

    ..having flown to the Scillies myself, all the way from Essex. Only to land - on the seemingly perilous runway, with its hump two thirds of the way along, after which a short downhill stretch ends at the top of a cliff - and be told that if we didnt take off within the hour, an incoming storm would trap us there for a few days. So after a cup of tea, take off, a rapid refuel at a by then very windy Perranporth, and back to Essex.

    The most expensive cup of tea of my life.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,059

    https://x.com/peston/status/1938312795399016812

    I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.

    There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.

    Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.

    My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn

    Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc.
    Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system.
    Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?!
    Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,986

    Looks like the tax rises in the 2025 Budget will be HUUUUUGE. And Rachel can simply say 'we have to pay for a one in a generation need to increase defence funding'.

    Last one out please remember to turn off the lights.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,059
    Monkeys said:

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    The reality is nobody will ever have the guts to take money away from people who are getting it (unless they are wealthy).

    The only change they will be able to make is for new claimants.

    The numbers are beyond breathtaking. The number of people receiving PIP has gone from 2.1m in 2019 to 3.7m today.

    So the number of people with a long-term physical or mental health condition has, supposedly, nearly doubled in the last six years.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj924xvzrr2o

    That’s why they need to bring back in person assessments rather than Zoom which can easily be faked
    If you have a long-term physical or mental health condition shouldn't you be receiving treatment for it?

    And treatment isn't just a chat with a GP.

    I would say to receive PIP you should have to be under the treatment of a specialist, to whom you have been referred by your GP.
    Do blind people have ongoing treatment? People with chronic arthritis? Someone whos had both legs amputated? How about psychosis? Long term conditions might not be 'curable' and there is little budget for continual treatment. Mental health, in particular, is chronically underfunded and badly administered by the NHS. Not the fault of the sufferers.
    Even clearly psychotic people can't get assessments through MHAS and are palmed off onto the Police who have to sit with them in A and E until everyone gives up and goes home. Meanwhile a fifteen year old can break into three cars unencumbered by the local constabulary.
    Psychosis is a nasty mistress in whatever form it takes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,810

    Thanks to Bart for digging in to the background of Reform councillors.

    I'm going to take it as confirmation bias of something that I've been worried about for a while - too many people see politics as a spectator sport, rather than something they need to get involved in. Because more people aren't getting involved in the daily grind of politics, the quality of people available is lower than it would be, if there were more people to choose from.

    And so a lot of Reform councillors are councillors from other parties, because there aren't suddenly a thousand new people who are willing to put the time in to get involved. I spent some time doing some campaigning for the Green party, back in the day, but I never wanted to commit the time to try to become a councillor.

    A lot of people are unhappy about politics and politicians, and are very quick to damn them all as being all the same - but the obvious remedy for that feeling in a democracy is to get involved yourself to create a better alternative that you can present to the electorate. I think that this is the source of a fundamental weakness in modern democratic politics. Parties have professionalised and talk about "retail politics", as though they seek to provide a service that the voter buys with their vote. But this disassociates voters from playing an active part in the political process. No-one thinks that the way to fix a problem with Tesco providing a shit service is to volunteer and help them to improve, but that's precisely what is required of us as citizens in a democracy, if we think that our politics is shit.

    Meet many of the people who are heading for top level political careers - which until recently divided them into either Tory or Labour - when they are of student age, and very many of them are the weirdest of teenagers. By the time they get into Parliament, many of them have worked out how to come across as at least halfway normal, for the punters, but it remains the case that the weird and dysfunctional among us are dramatically over-represented in the House.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,613

    https://x.com/peston/status/1938312795399016812

    I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.

    There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.

    Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.

    My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn

    Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc.
    Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system.
    Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?!
    Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
    I genuinely can’t see how that survives a court challenge.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,075
    @paleofuture.bsky.social‬

    Rep. Andy Ogles, a Republican from Tennessee, has sent a letter to Pam Bondi calling for Zohran Mamdani to be stripped of his citizenship and deported.

    https://bsky.app/profile/paleofuture.bsky.social/post/3lsjtdvh2422k
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,864

    https://x.com/peston/status/1938312795399016812

    I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.

    There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.

    Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.

    My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn

    Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc.
    Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system.
    Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?!
    Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
    This is yet another example of how Starmer twists and turns, and we are at a point now where how can anyone trust a word he says

    Indeed I believe this will just cement the view that he is weak and is unlikely to change any votes, indeed this may cause more unpopularity for him

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,986

    https://x.com/peston/status/1938312795399016812

    I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.

    There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.

    Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.

    My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn

    Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc.
    Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system.
    Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?!
    Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
    I genuinely can’t see how that survives a court challenge.
    Doesn't matter who wins or loses, the lawyers always win in the end.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,810
    MikeL said:

    The reality is nobody will ever have the guts to take money away from people who are getting it (unless they are wealthy).

    The only change they will be able to make is for new claimants.

    The numbers are beyond breathtaking. The number of people receiving PIP has gone from 2.1m in 2019 to 3.7m today.

    So the number of people with a long-term physical or mental health condition has, supposedly, nearly doubled in the last six years.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj924xvzrr2o

    And the growth in the UK is disproportionately among the young, and heavily weighted toward mental health conditions. Which would appear to be a Covid overhang, except that nothing remotely as dramatic has happened in comparable developed nations. So what have we done that’s different (aka how did the Tories manage to f*** this up as well as everything else?).
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,796

    https://x.com/peston/status/1938312795399016812

    I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.

    There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.

    Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.

    My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn

    Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc.
    Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system.
    Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?!
    Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
    I genuinely can’t see how that survives a court challenge.
    Surely it is quite normal to change things for new claimants/recipients but leave existing recipients wuth grandfather rights
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,059

    https://x.com/peston/status/1938312795399016812

    I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.

    There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.

    Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.

    My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn

    Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc.
    Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system.
    Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?!
    Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
    I genuinely can’t see how that survives a court challenge.
    Me either. I imagine the case is being prepared already.
    'You should have lost your legs last week, mate'
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,613
    edited June 26

    https://x.com/peston/status/1938312795399016812

    I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.

    There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.

    Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.

    My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn

    Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc.
    Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system.
    Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?!
    Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
    This is yet another example of how Starmer twists and turns, and we are at a point now where how can anyone trust a word he says

    Indeed I believe this will just cement the view that he is weak and is unlikely to change any votes, indeed this may cause more unpopularity for him

    They are really giving off Single Term vibes now.

    The optics of hitting more people with tax rises in the autumn for the price of retaining the existing welfare system for most claimants (after saying how terrible it was) is going to be absolutely bleak for Labour.

    Starmer is a bad PM.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,059

    https://x.com/peston/status/1938312795399016812

    I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.

    There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.

    Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.

    My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn

    Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc.
    Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system.
    Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?!
    Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
    I genuinely can’t see how that survives a court challenge.
    Surely it is quite normal to change things for new claimants/recipients but leave existing recipients wuth grandfather rights
    How would paying everyone who retires from next April £4000 a year less in state pension get on?
    They are telling some 2026 disabled they are not entitled to the support of identical 2025 disabled under the same benefit
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,986

    https://x.com/peston/status/1938312795399016812

    I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.

    There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.

    Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.

    My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn

    Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc.
    Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system.
    Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?!
    Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
    I genuinely can’t see how that survives a court challenge.
    Surely it is quite normal to change things for new claimants/recipients but leave existing recipients wuth grandfather rights
    How would paying everyone who retires from next April £4000 a year less in state pension get on?
    They are telling some 2026 disabled they are not entitled to the support of identical 2025 disabled under the same benefit
    WASPI Women wave...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,810

    https://x.com/peston/status/1938312795399016812

    I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.

    There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.

    Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.

    My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn

    Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc.
    Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system.
    Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?!
    Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
    This is yet another example of how Starmer twists and turns, and we are at a point now where how can anyone trust a word he says

    Indeed I believe this will just cement the view that he is weak and is unlikely to change any votes, indeed this may cause more unpopularity for him

    They are really giving off Single Term vibes now.

    The optics of hitting more people with tax rises in the autumn for the price of retaining the existing welfare system for most claimants (after saying how terrible it was) is going to be absolutely bleak for Labour.

    Starmer is a bad PM.
    Nevertheless a bad Labour PM is change from a bad Tory one.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,967

    https://x.com/peston/status/1938312795399016812

    I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.

    There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.

    Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.

    My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn

    It's a little depressing that one of the biggest majorities for Labour of all time (I think Blair still beats him) has produced.... what?

    They could be busy transforming the UK from top to bottom if they had confidence in themselves - and instead they're bickering about the details of PIP.

    I don't know. It just makes me quite sad that after a year in government the only things I remember them for is mucking about with national insurance in a way that pleased no-one, this current PIP mess and messing with winter fuel allowance then backtracking.

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,422
    IanB2 said:

    MikeL said:

    The reality is nobody will ever have the guts to take money away from people who are getting it (unless they are wealthy).

    The only change they will be able to make is for new claimants.

    The numbers are beyond breathtaking. The number of people receiving PIP has gone from 2.1m in 2019 to 3.7m today.

    So the number of people with a long-term physical or mental health condition has, supposedly, nearly doubled in the last six years.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj924xvzrr2o

    And the growth in the UK is disproportionately among the young, and heavily weighted toward mental health conditions. Which would appear to be a Covid overhang, except that nothing remotely as dramatic has happened in comparable developed nations. So what have we done that’s different (aka how did the Tories manage to f*** this up as well as everything else?).
    Did other countries switch to telephone assessments in the pandemic like we did? Telephone diagnosis from doctor, telephone appointment with welfare...
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