I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
I genuinely can’t see how that survives a court challenge.
Doesn't matter who wins or loses, the lawyers always win in the end.
If lawyers make a living by being in the front line of a nation under the rule of law, then fair play to them.
Lawyers who make a living ensuring that governments abide by the rule of law, and that those who have the power to change the law abide by the laws they have created are doing us all a favour. It is one of the distinguishing marks of difference between us and North Korea.
Those who are doing this in the USA at the moment are quiet heroes. Ours are not heroic because we respect the rule of law. Good.
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
It's a little depressing that one of the biggest majorities for Labour of all time (I think Blair still beats him) has produced.... what?
They could be busy transforming the UK from top to bottom if they had confidence in themselves - and instead they're bickering about the details of PIP.
I don't know. It just makes me quite sad that after a year in government the only things I remember them for is mucking about with national insurance in a way that pleased no-one, this current PIP mess and messing with winter fuel allowance then backtracking.
Its not confidence that is lacking, it is doing the forward planning and having the talent to implement it. Blair did lots of planning, same with Cameron / Coalition (the Orange Book Lib Dems had thought hard about some sensible things).
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
I genuinely can’t see how that survives a court challenge.
Surely it is quite normal to change things for new claimants/recipients but leave existing recipients wuth grandfather rights
I think the extra dimension here (which distinguishes it from say, pension availability like WASPI (albeit that didn’t stop them trying either)) is the fact it’s intended to support a particular condition. So person who had condition X a month before a person with the same condition is getting less purely because of the month that they were assessed. But I am not an expert.
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
This is yet another example of how Starmer twists and turns, and we are at a point now where how can anyone trust a word he says
Indeed I believe this will just cement the view that he is weak and is unlikely to change any votes, indeed this may cause more unpopularity for him
They are really giving off Single Term vibes now.
The optics of hitting more people with tax rises in the autumn for the price of retaining the existing welfare system for most claimants (after saying how terrible it was) is going to be absolutely bleak for Labour.
Starmer is a bad PM.
Nevertheless a bad Labour PM is change from a bad Tory one.
I’m starting to think we’d have been better with Sunak. And I dont say that lightly - I thought the Tories 2019-2024 were easily the worst government of my lifetime.
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
It's a little depressing that one of the biggest majorities for Labour of all time (I think Blair still beats him) has produced.... what?
They could be busy transforming the UK from top to bottom if they had confidence in themselves - and instead they're bickering about the details of PIP.
I don't know. It just makes me quite sad that after a year in government the only things I remember them for is mucking about with national insurance in a way that pleased no-one, this current PIP mess and messing with winter fuel allowance then backtracking.
Its not confidence that is lacking, it is doing the forward planning and having the talent to implement it. Blair did lots of planning, same with Cameron / Coalition (the Orange Book Lib Dems had thought hard about some sensible things).
I wonder if they were caught on the hop, assuming that years of Boris with his Red Wall awaited and hadn't left themselves any time for deep and detailed planning when Boris imploded.
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
I genuinely can’t see how that survives a court challenge.
Surely it is quite normal to change things for new claimants/recipients but leave existing recipients wuth grandfather rights
How would paying everyone who retires from next April £4000 a year less in state pension get on? They are telling some 2026 disabled they are not entitled to the support of identical 2025 disabled under the same benefit
WASPI Women wave...
That was when they could access it, not being paid less than others of the same age with the same contribution record
And figures out today show new foreign direct investment projects are down YoY to lowest levels since records began (even down in London) and 40% down from 9-10 years ago. Going be smashing that growth....
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
I genuinely can’t see how that survives a court challenge.
Surely it is quite normal to change things for new claimants/recipients but leave existing recipients wuth grandfather rights
How would paying everyone who retires from next April £4000 a year less in state pension get on? They are telling some 2026 disabled they are not entitled to the support of identical 2025 disabled under the same benefit
WASPI Women wave...
That was when they could access it, not being paid less than others of the same age with the same contribution record
Could the government end up being forced to admit that NI isn't an insurance scheme and stumbling into major tax reforms by accident?
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
This is yet another example of how Starmer twists and turns, and we are at a point now where how can anyone trust a word he says
Indeed I believe this will just cement the view that he is weak and is unlikely to change any votes, indeed this may cause more unpopularity for him
They are really giving off Single Term vibes now.
The optics of hitting more people with tax rises in the autumn for the price of retaining the existing welfare system for most claimants (after saying how terrible it was) is going to be absolutely bleak for Labour.
Starmer is a bad PM.
Nevertheless a bad Labour PM is change from a bad Tory one.
I’m starting to think we’d have been better with Sunak. And I dont say that lightly - I thought the Tories 2019-2024 were easily the worst government of my lifetime.
Polling suggests the public majority share thst view now by 2 to 1 last one i saw i believe
@GuidoFawkes Starmer bins his welfare reform package in a humiliating climbdown after a massive backbench rebellion - according to the BBC: 'PIP claimants will continue to receive what they currently get, as will recipients of the health element of Universal Credit'
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
It's a little depressing that one of the biggest majorities for Labour of all time (I think Blair still beats him) has produced.... what?
They could be busy transforming the UK from top to bottom if they had confidence in themselves - and instead they're bickering about the details of PIP.
I don't know. It just makes me quite sad that after a year in government the only things I remember them for is mucking about with national insurance in a way that pleased no-one, this current PIP mess and messing with winter fuel allowance then backtracking.
Its not confidence that is lacking, it is doing the forward planning and having the talent to implement it. Blair did lots of planning, same with Cameron / Coalition (the Orange Book Lib Dems had thought hard about some sensible things).
I think there's a lot of that; but I also think leading a country is becoming increasingly difficult in the Internet age. In a way, I wonder if Starmer would have been a better PM in 1997, and Blair in 2024. You really need the ability not just to develop policy, but to develop the messaging of that policy.
Personally, I think trolls and bot farms are a significant factor in this problem.
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
It's a little depressing that one of the biggest majorities for Labour of all time (I think Blair still beats him) has produced.... what?
They could be busy transforming the UK from top to bottom if they had confidence in themselves - and instead they're bickering about the details of PIP.
I don't know. It just makes me quite sad that after a year in government the only things I remember them for is mucking about with national insurance in a way that pleased no-one, this current PIP mess and messing with winter fuel allowance then backtracking.
Its not confidence that is lacking, it is doing the forward planning and having the talent to implement it. Blair did lots of planning, same with Cameron / Coalition (the Orange Book Lib Dems had thought hard about some sensible things).
Now I'm even sadder. Around 15yrs for they themselves - or associated think tanks, wonks, whatever - to come up with concrete worked-through plans. And instead, this dismal, dreary sock-water.
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
I genuinely can’t see how that survives a court challenge.
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
This is yet another example of how Starmer twists and turns, and we are at a point now where how can anyone trust a word he says
Indeed I believe this will just cement the view that he is weak and is unlikely to change any votes, indeed this may cause more unpopularity for him
They are really giving off Single Term vibes now.
The optics of hitting more people with tax rises in the autumn for the price of retaining the existing welfare system for most claimants (after saying how terrible it was) is going to be absolutely bleak for Labour.
Starmer is a bad PM.
I think Labour remain clear favourites to form the next government, either alone or with support from LDs. There is a very long way to go. In the polling they are about 6 points behind Reform. We are one year into this government. A year or so into the 2019 government, Tories and Labour were neck and neck to win the next election according to the polling. Labour won by miles four years later. Stuff happens.
On current form the next election is Labour v Reform. Only one of those two is serious. Another advantage for Labour is that the Tories could well recover ground, and split the non Labour vote in a way which can only help Labour.
@GuidoFawkes Starmer bins his welfare reform package in a humiliating climbdown after a massive backbench rebellion - according to the BBC: 'PIP claimants will continue to receive what they currently get, as will recipients of the health element of Universal Credit'
'I wont defend a system that traps people out of work, its immoral' *retains that system at a cost of several billion*
Can Liz Kendall seriously carry on at DWP after this? The whole argument for the green paper has been scrapped
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
It's a little depressing that one of the biggest majorities for Labour of all time (I think Blair still beats him) has produced.... what?
They could be busy transforming the UK from top to bottom if they had confidence in themselves - and instead they're bickering about the details of PIP.
I don't know. It just makes me quite sad that after a year in government the only things I remember them for is mucking about with national insurance in a way that pleased no-one, this current PIP mess and messing with winter fuel allowance then backtracking.
Its not confidence that is lacking, it is doing the forward planning and having the talent to implement it. Blair did lots of planning, same with Cameron / Coalition (the Orange Book Lib Dems had thought hard about some sensible things).
I think there's a lot of that; but I also think leading a country is becoming increasingly difficult in the Internet age. In a way, I wonder if Starmer would have been a better PM in 1997, and Blair in 2024. You really need the ability not just to develop policy, but to develop the messaging of that policy.
Personally, I think trolls and bot farms are a significant factor in this problem.
I don't really agree, the internet age isn't the problem, it is the large deficit and lack of growth, means you are boxed into having to make a lot of tough decisions, which makes planning and thought even more important as you don't have loads of free money to throw around with little consequences.
If we had growth in the economy and people were feeling richer, nobody would give a shit what the trolls on tw@tter were saying today. Blair had that luxury, Cameron was fairly honest upfront that what you were getting if he got into power and come 2015 people were a bit more optimistic that things were perhaps turning around.
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
It's a little depressing that one of the biggest majorities for Labour of all time (I think Blair still beats him) has produced.... what?
They could be busy transforming the UK from top to bottom if they had confidence in themselves - and instead they're bickering about the details of PIP.
I don't know. It just makes me quite sad that after a year in government the only things I remember them for is mucking about with national insurance in a way that pleased no-one, this current PIP mess and messing with winter fuel allowance then backtracking.
Its not confidence that is lacking, it is doing the forward planning and having the talent to implement it. Blair did lots of planning, same with Cameron / Coalition (the Orange Book Lib Dems had thought hard about some sensible things).
I think there's a lot of that; but I also think leading a country is becoming increasingly difficult in the Internet age. In a way, I wonder if Starmer would have been a better PM in 1997, and Blair in 2024. You really need the ability not just to develop policy, but to develop the messaging of that policy.
Personally, I think trolls and bot farms are a significant factor in this problem.
I still firmly believe that a politician with the strength of their convictions, who can speak frankly and convincingly, and knows what they stand for, would do exceptionally well in the current climate.
But they also need to be a leader and to inspire: one of the problems with the current Labour leadership is they don’t really generate any great enthusiasm with their grassroots or their members - hence MPs being less loyal.
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
It's a little depressing that one of the biggest majorities for Labour of all time (I think Blair still beats him) has produced.... what?
They could be busy transforming the UK from top to bottom if they had confidence in themselves - and instead they're bickering about the details of PIP.
I don't know. It just makes me quite sad that after a year in government the only things I remember them for is mucking about with national insurance in a way that pleased no-one, this current PIP mess and messing with winter fuel allowance then backtracking.
They could have been busy transforming the UK if they'd decided how to do it whilst in opposition. Transformation needs planning.
Some young relatives are mine are both job-hunting at the moment and finding it really tough. Lots of interviews and jobs apparently on offer but no response when applications are made. They are finding it demoralising.
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
It's a little depressing that one of the biggest majorities for Labour of all time (I think Blair still beats him) has produced.... what?
They could be busy transforming the UK from top to bottom if they had confidence in themselves - and instead they're bickering about the details of PIP.
I don't know. It just makes me quite sad that after a year in government the only things I remember them for is mucking about with national insurance in a way that pleased no-one, this current PIP mess and messing with winter fuel allowance then backtracking.
Its not confidence that is lacking, it is doing the forward planning and having the talent to implement it. Blair did lots of planning, same with Cameron / Coalition (the Orange Book Lib Dems had thought hard about some sensible things).
I think there's a lot of that; but I also think leading a country is becoming increasingly difficult in the Internet age. In a way, I wonder if Starmer would have been a better PM in 1997, and Blair in 2024. You really need the ability not just to develop policy, but to develop the messaging of that policy.
Personally, I think trolls and bot farms are a significant factor in this problem.
I still firmly believe that a politician with the strength of their convictions, who can speak frankly and convincingly, and knows what they stand for, would do exceptionally well in the current climate.
But they also need to be a leader and to inspire: one of the problems with the current Labour leadership is they don’t really generate any great enthusiasm with their grassroots or their members - hence MPs being less loyal.
This.....see how Corbyn nearly won despite having batshit crazy policies.
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
It's a little depressing that one of the biggest majorities for Labour of all time (I think Blair still beats him) has produced.... what?
They could be busy transforming the UK from top to bottom if they had confidence in themselves - and instead they're bickering about the details of PIP.
I don't know. It just makes me quite sad that after a year in government the only things I remember them for is mucking about with national insurance in a way that pleased no-one, this current PIP mess and messing with winter fuel allowance then backtracking.
Its not confidence that is lacking, it is doing the forward planning and having the talent to implement it. Blair did lots of planning, same with Cameron / Coalition (the Orange Book Lib Dems had thought hard about some sensible things).
I think there's a lot of that; but I also think leading a country is becoming increasingly difficult in the Internet age. In a way, I wonder if Starmer would have been a better PM in 1997, and Blair in 2024. You really need the ability not just to develop policy, but to develop the messaging of that policy.
Personally, I think trolls and bot farms are a significant factor in this problem.
A brilliant communicator as PM can and would, even these days, command the national discourse. A PM has free rein to address the nation by interviews, short statements on national media, parliament, articles and of course on all the forms of social media people like me never see.
What the PM says gets covered, and attended to as long as it is interesting and important. Ask Blair or Thatcher. Or even Trump. Farage can do it and his party only empties the bins in Lincolnshire.
Some young relatives are mine are both job-hunting at the moment and finding it really tough. Lots of interviews and jobs apparently on offer but no response when applications are made. They are finding it demoralising.
All Labour governments ever have increased unemployment. Its the one thing this one seems determined to get a head start on.
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
This is yet another example of how Starmer twists and turns, and we are at a point now where how can anyone trust a word he says
Indeed I believe this will just cement the view that he is weak and is unlikely to change any votes, indeed this may cause more unpopularity for him
They are really giving off Single Term vibes now.
The optics of hitting more people with tax rises in the autumn for the price of retaining the existing welfare system for most claimants (after saying how terrible it was) is going to be absolutely bleak for Labour.
Starmer is a bad PM.
Nevertheless a bad Labour PM is change from a bad Tory one.
I’m starting to think we’d have been better with Sunak. And I dont say that lightly - I thought the Tories 2019-2024 were easily the worst government of my lifetime.
IMHO, Sunak and Hunt with a 5 year term ahead of them would have been significantly better at governing than Starmer's shower of shite. A couple of technocrats muddling through is about as good as it gets.
Meanwhile, Denmark is on the horizon, we’re off the Swedish coast in the Kattegat (why that Vikings TV show named its town after a piece of sea remains a mystery), and it’s actually now raining. Poor show.
But this ex-DFDS ship has dozens of ways to eat and drink, with a cocktail bar, night club, wine bar, table service Scandinavian restaurant, Italian restaurant, English style pub, and a lavish Scandinavian eat-as-much-as-you-want while drinking €10 glasses of wine buffet restaurant, from which I have just returned; no wonder DFDS is so often awarded ‘ferry operator of the year’.
DFDS Dover-Calais and Dunkerque is rubbish though, as are all the short haul ferries.
But I absolutely love good ferry crossings. The longer the better. I love boarding, climbing the stairs and exploring the indoor areas then heading to deck to watch as we set sail. I love the little cabins and the onboard restaurants. Yet I hate the idea of a cruise. Somehow very different.
Among my most enjoyable recent long crossings, the overnight from Dakar to Ziguinchor in Senegal beats them all. A comfortable, oh so French experience: pastis on deck from the outside bar on departure, a full dinner, tablecloths and Moroccan wine and starched cuffs and all, for about a tenner. A very comfortable cabin, then a morning travelling up the Casamance past mangroves and palm islands like some latter day Marlow while the cheerful mix of Casamancais returning from the big smoke, German old lady sex tourists and Spanish backpackers take selfies on deck.
Corsica ferries are also great, with their multiple restaurants and deck plunge pool. It can get a bit hot inside and out though, and the waters are choppy. The Greek island hopping ferries are the smartest in the med, the views are lovely and the extra for business class is very cheap and worth it, and Brittany ferries manage somehow to encapsulate that kids summer holiday excitement perfectly.
Jersey ferries are a bit shit.
I’ve not done the hurtigruten up the Norwegian coast or indeed the short crossing from Tarifa to Tangier, but they’re on the list.
Top post.
I love a holiday where you have to take a ferry after the plane. Feels things have really started once you get on.
Scilly on my list, but silly prices (accomodation, not ferry).
Scilly also on my list: plane one way, ferry the other. Very small planes are also great fun.
I think the key with Scilly is to accept the high cost per night and just stay very few nights. 2 or 3 max.
I've done the Scillies by ferry and by helicopter. The helicopter is vastly superior and more dramatic
The Scillies, in the right weather, are magical
I'm afraid I am going to completely trump you. To coin a phrase.
..having flown to the Scillies myself, all the way from Essex. Only to land - on the seemingly perilous runway, with its hump two thirds of the way along, after which a short downhill stretch ends at the top of a cliff - and be told that if we didnt take off within the hour, an incoming storm would trap us there for a few days. So after a cup of tea, take off, a rapid refuel at a by then very windy Perranporth, and back to Essex.
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
This is yet another example of how Starmer twists and turns, and we are at a point now where how can anyone trust a word he says
Indeed I believe this will just cement the view that he is weak and is unlikely to change any votes, indeed this may cause more unpopularity for him
They are really giving off Single Term vibes now.
The optics of hitting more people with tax rises in the autumn for the price of retaining the existing welfare system for most claimants (after saying how terrible it was) is going to be absolutely bleak for Labour.
Starmer is a bad PM.
I think Labour remain clear favourites to form the next government, either alone or with support from LDs. There is a very long way to go. In the polling they are about 6 points behind Reform. We are one year into this government. A year or so into the 2019 government, Tories and Labour were neck and neck to win the next election according to the polling. Labour won by miles four years later. Stuff happens.
On current form the next election is Labour v Reform. Only one of those two is serious. Another advantage for Labour is that the Tories could well recover ground, and split the non Labour vote in a way which can only help Labour.
What I want to know is this: what did the Labour backbenchers think they would achieve? Surely they must know that humiliating their leader simply clears more of the pathway for Nige. Have they been won over by Nige's more recent Leftist soundings and convinced themselves that the welfare state is safe in his hands?
Breaking: After a classified briefing with Cabinet officials, Sen. Chris Murphy says: "I walk away from that briefing still under the belief that we have not obliterated the programs."
"The president was deliberately misleading the public when he said the program was obliterated."
What I want to know is this: what did the Labour backbenchers think they would achieve? Surely they must know that humiliating their leader simply clears more of the pathway for Nige. Have they been won over by Nige's more recent Leftist soundings and convinced themselves that the welfare state is safe in his hands?
Because for most Labour MPs welfare state is core to their being. Cutting away at that is non-negotiable for many. What that does to the leader is irrelevant; it goes against their reason for being involved in Labour politics.
Twitter already finding the obvious problems like children cannot apply until age 16 for PIP so the govt is setting up a system that will discriminate against some disabled children as they reach adulthood. Things like this are why they should have pulled it and consulted properly
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
I genuinely can’t see how that survives a court challenge.
Surely it is quite normal to change things for new claimants/recipients but leave existing recipients wuth grandfather rights
How would paying everyone who retires from next April £4000 a year less in state pension get on? They are telling some 2026 disabled they are not entitled to the support of identical 2025 disabled under the same benefit
Pension is a contributory benefit, PIP isn't. Surely it is open to Parliament to decide that it will no longer pay money to some disabled people. Otherwise you can always increase payments but never decrease them
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
This is yet another example of how Starmer twists and turns, and we are at a point now where how can anyone trust a word he says
Indeed I believe this will just cement the view that he is weak and is unlikely to change any votes, indeed this may cause more unpopularity for him
They are really giving off Single Term vibes now.
The optics of hitting more people with tax rises in the autumn for the price of retaining the existing welfare system for most claimants (after saying how terrible it was) is going to be absolutely bleak for Labour.
Starmer is a bad PM.
I think Labour remain clear favourites to form the next government, either alone or with support from LDs. There is a very long way to go. In the polling they are about 6 points behind Reform. We are one year into this government. A year or so into the 2019 government, Tories and Labour were neck and neck to win the next election according to the polling. Labour won by miles four years later. Stuff happens.
On current form the next election is Labour v Reform. Only one of those two is serious. Another advantage for Labour is that the Tories could well recover ground, and split the non Labour vote in a way which can only help Labour.
Keep whistling, if it maintains your spirits
Maintaining spirits would require a clear win for a One Nation Tory party, the one that has gone missing in recent years, but thanks for the suggestion.
On another recent topic; ferries. Can I put a word in for the short Fishnish to Lochaline run, running regularly throughout the year connecting two places for no tremendously good reason. One of the idlest things I know of a summer afternoon is to be on it as a foot passenger just because it is there.
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
This is yet another example of how Starmer twists and turns, and we are at a point now where how can anyone trust a word he says
Indeed I believe this will just cement the view that he is weak and is unlikely to change any votes, indeed this may cause more unpopularity for him
They are really giving off Single Term vibes now.
The optics of hitting more people with tax rises in the autumn for the price of retaining the existing welfare system for most claimants (after saying how terrible it was) is going to be absolutely bleak for Labour.
Starmer is a bad PM.
I think Labour remain clear favourites to form the next government, either alone or with support from LDs. There is a very long way to go. In the polling they are about 6 points behind Reform. We are one year into this government. A year or so into the 2019 government, Tories and Labour were neck and neck to win the next election according to the polling. Labour won by miles four years later. Stuff happens.
On current form the next election is Labour v Reform. Only one of those two is serious. Another advantage for Labour is that the Tories could well recover ground, and split the non Labour vote in a way which can only help Labour.
Keep whistling, if it maintains your spirits
Maintaining spirits would require a clear win for a One Nation Tory party, the one that has gone missing in recent years, but thanks for the suggestion.
On another recent topic; ferries. Can I put a word in for the short Fishnish to Lochaline run, running regularly throughout the year connecting two places for no tremendously good reason. One of the idlest things I know of a summer afternoon is to be on it as a foot passenger just because it is there.
You are clearly terrified of a Reform victory, and ardently hopecasting that it won't happen
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
I genuinely can’t see how that survives a court challenge.
Surely it is quite normal to change things for new claimants/recipients but leave existing recipients wuth grandfather rights
How would paying everyone who retires from next April £4000 a year less in state pension get on? They are telling some 2026 disabled they are not entitled to the support of identical 2025 disabled under the same benefit
Pension is a contributory benefit, PIP isn't. Surely it is open to Parliament to decide that it will no longer pay money to some disabled people. Otherwise you can always increase payments but never decrease them
I've said it before and will say it again. They need to start at the other end, work out realistic draft budgets for a wide range of circumstances and then see how much money is really needed in the various cases.
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
This is yet another example of how Starmer twists and turns, and we are at a point now where how can anyone trust a word he says
Indeed I believe this will just cement the view that he is weak and is unlikely to change any votes, indeed this may cause more unpopularity for him
They are really giving off Single Term vibes now.
The optics of hitting more people with tax rises in the autumn for the price of retaining the existing welfare system for most claimants (after saying how terrible it was) is going to be absolutely bleak for Labour.
Starmer is a bad PM.
I think Labour remain clear favourites to form the next government, either alone or with support from LDs. There is a very long way to go. In the polling they are about 6 points behind Reform. We are one year into this government. A year or so into the 2019 government, Tories and Labour were neck and neck to win the next election according to the polling. Labour won by miles four years later. Stuff happens.
On current form the next election is Labour v Reform. Only one of those two is serious. Another advantage for Labour is that the Tories could well recover ground, and split the non Labour vote in a way which can only help Labour.
Keep whistling, if it maintains your spirits
Maintaining spirits would require a clear win for a One Nation Tory party, the one that has gone missing in recent years, but thanks for the suggestion.
On another recent topic; ferries. Can I put a word in for the short Fishnish to Lochaline run, running regularly throughout the year connecting two places for no tremendously good reason. One of the idlest things I know of a summer afternoon is to be on it as a foot passenger just because it is there.
You are clearly terrified of a Reform victory, and ardently hopecasting that it won't happen
I am not a Reform supporter but each day Starmer is in office must add many more to their vote
@GuidoFawkes Starmer bins his welfare reform package in a humiliating climbdown after a massive backbench rebellion - according to the BBC: 'PIP claimants will continue to receive what they currently get, as will recipients of the health element of Universal Credit'
'I wont defend a system that traps people out of work, its immoral' *retains that system at a cost of several billion*
Can Liz Kendall seriously carry on at DWP after this? The whole argument for the green paper has been scrapped
PIP doesn't trapped people out of work as it is non-work related benefit. Hoping Liz knows at least this.
@GuidoFawkes Starmer bins his welfare reform package in a humiliating climbdown after a massive backbench rebellion - according to the BBC: 'PIP claimants will continue to receive what they currently get, as will recipients of the health element of Universal Credit'
'I wont defend a system that traps people out of work, its immoral' *retains that system at a cost of several billion*
Can Liz Kendall seriously carry on at DWP after this? The whole argument for the green paper has been scrapped
PIP doesn't trapped people out of work as it is non-work related benefit. Hoping Liz knows at least this.
Thats what they were saying. And have been repeatedly told its not
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
It's a little depressing that one of the biggest majorities for Labour of all time (I think Blair still beats him) has produced.... what?
They could be busy transforming the UK from top to bottom if they had confidence in themselves - and instead they're bickering about the details of PIP.
I don't know. It just makes me quite sad that after a year in government the only things I remember them for is mucking about with national insurance in a way that pleased no-one, this current PIP mess and messing with winter fuel allowance then backtracking.
Its not confidence that is lacking, it is doing the forward planning and having the talent to implement it. Blair did lots of planning, same with Cameron / Coalition (the Orange Book Lib Dems had thought hard about some sensible things).
I think there's a lot of that; but I also think leading a country is becoming increasingly difficult in the Internet age. In a way, I wonder if Starmer would have been a better PM in 1997, and Blair in 2024. You really need the ability not just to develop policy, but to develop the messaging of that policy.
Personally, I think trolls and bot farms are a significant factor in this problem.
I wonder if it's also the triumph of the professional political class since the 1990s, who, as professional operators, are great at dominating the next news cycle, enforcing message discipline and ruling through a grid, but, with no experience outside politics, are useless at trivialities like finance, economics, diplomacy, social policy, etc.
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
I genuinely can’t see how that survives a court challenge.
Surely it is quite normal to change things for new claimants/recipients but leave existing recipients wuth grandfather rights
How would paying everyone who retires from next April £4000 a year less in state pension get on? They are telling some 2026 disabled they are not entitled to the support of identical 2025 disabled under the same benefit
Pension is a contributory benefit, PIP isn't. Surely it is open to Parliament to decide that it will no longer pay money to some disabled people. Otherwise you can always increase payments but never decrease them
You have to not discriminate though - all disabled people with the same conditions and outcomes to be treated the same. Otherwise you could just legislate to pay labour party member wheelchair users only
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
I genuinely can’t see how that survives a court challenge.
Surely it is quite normal to change things for new claimants/recipients but leave existing recipients wuth grandfather rights
How would paying everyone who retires from next April £4000 a year less in state pension get on? They are telling some 2026 disabled they are not entitled to the support of identical 2025 disabled under the same benefit
Pension is a contributory benefit, PIP isn't. Surely it is open to Parliament to decide that it will no longer pay money to some disabled people. Otherwise you can always increase payments but never decrease them
You have to not discriminate though - all disabled people with the same conditions and outcomes to be treated the same. Otherwise you could just legislate to pay labour party member wheelchair users only
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
This is yet another example of how Starmer twists and turns, and we are at a point now where how can anyone trust a word he says
Indeed I believe this will just cement the view that he is weak and is unlikely to change any votes, indeed this may cause more unpopularity for him
They are really giving off Single Term vibes now.
The optics of hitting more people with tax rises in the autumn for the price of retaining the existing welfare system for most claimants (after saying how terrible it was) is going to be absolutely bleak for Labour.
Starmer is a bad PM.
I think Labour remain clear favourites to form the next government, either alone or with support from LDs. There is a very long way to go. In the polling they are about 6 points behind Reform. We are one year into this government. A year or so into the 2019 government, Tories and Labour were neck and neck to win the next election according to the polling. Labour won by miles four years later. Stuff happens.
On current form the next election is Labour v Reform. Only one of those two is serious. Another advantage for Labour is that the Tories could well recover ground, and split the non Labour vote in a way which can only help Labour.
Keep whistling, if it maintains your spirits
Maintaining spirits would require a clear win for a One Nation Tory party, the one that has gone missing in recent years, but thanks for the suggestion.
On another recent topic; ferries. Can I put a word in for the short Fishnish to Lochaline run, running regularly throughout the year connecting two places for no tremendously good reason. One of the idlest things I know of a summer afternoon is to be on it as a foot passenger just because it is there.
You are clearly terrified of a Reform victory, and ardently hopecasting that it won't happen
William Hill have Labour as favourites for most seats in the next GE, squeaking ahead of Reform at 11/8.
6/5 is value for those who want to bet on things four years away IMHO. 11/8 is not.
I shall defer terror until 2029 when we can all read Reform's manifesto - which will be a fascinating read. I expect it to be a nationalist, closed borders, social democrat welfarist charter + a few bells and whistles.
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
This is yet another example of how Starmer twists and turns, and we are at a point now where how can anyone trust a word he says
Indeed I believe this will just cement the view that he is weak and is unlikely to change any votes, indeed this may cause more unpopularity for him
They are really giving off Single Term vibes now.
The optics of hitting more people with tax rises in the autumn for the price of retaining the existing welfare system for most claimants (after saying how terrible it was) is going to be absolutely bleak for Labour.
Starmer is a bad PM.
I think Labour remain clear favourites to form the next government, either alone or with support from LDs. There is a very long way to go. In the polling they are about 6 points behind Reform. We are one year into this government. A year or so into the 2019 government, Tories and Labour were neck and neck to win the next election according to the polling. Labour won by miles four years later. Stuff happens.
On current form the next election is Labour v Reform. Only one of those two is serious. Another advantage for Labour is that the Tories could well recover ground, and split the non Labour vote in a way which can only help Labour.
Keep whistling, if it maintains your spirits
Maintaining spirits would require a clear win for a One Nation Tory party, the one that has gone missing in recent years, but thanks for the suggestion.
On another recent topic; ferries. Can I put a word in for the short Fishnish to Lochaline run, running regularly throughout the year connecting two places for no tremendously good reason. One of the idlest things I know of a summer afternoon is to be on it as a foot passenger just because it is there.
You are clearly terrified of a Reform victory, and ardently hopecasting that it won't happen
I am not a Reform supporter but each day Starmer is in office must add many more to their vote
My extended fam used to be fairly solidly Tory, with some lefty outliers - and it includes all types, from boho layabouts like me to hardworking accountants, solicitors, electricians. And all ages
Now it is solidly Reform, as I reported, because "we've tried everything else"
I see no sign of Labour dealing with that "we've tried everything else" feeling. I strongly suspect that by the end of their term immigration will be down but all the damage it is doing will be ongoing (and likely a lot worse, so much is baked in). And the boat people will still be an issue in some form
At the same time it is obvious growth is not going to roar into life, the govt has no ideas for reforming the NHS or social care, investment will be weak, the tax base will still be shrinking, and foreign policy will still consist of things like Chagos and reparations, because that's what Labour DO
By 2028 people will be utterly desperate and disgusted by all this. So Reform will win, as things stand
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
It's a little depressing that one of the biggest majorities for Labour of all time (I think Blair still beats him) has produced.... what?
They could be busy transforming the UK from top to bottom if they had confidence in themselves - and instead they're bickering about the details of PIP.
I don't know. It just makes me quite sad that after a year in government the only things I remember them for is mucking about with national insurance in a way that pleased no-one, this current PIP mess and messing with winter fuel allowance then backtracking.
Its not confidence that is lacking, it is doing the forward planning and having the talent to implement it. Blair did lots of planning, same with Cameron / Coalition (the Orange Book Lib Dems had thought hard about some sensible things).
I think there's a lot of that; but I also think leading a country is becoming increasingly difficult in the Internet age. In a way, I wonder if Starmer would have been a better PM in 1997, and Blair in 2024. You really need the ability not just to develop policy, but to develop the messaging of that policy.
Personally, I think trolls and bot farms are a significant factor in this problem.
I wonder if it's also the triumph of the professional political class since the 1990s, who, as professional operators, are great at dominating the next news cycle, enforcing message discipline and ruling through a grid, but, with no experience outside politics, are useless at trivialities like finance, economics, diplomacy, social policy, etc.
You may be right but SKS doesn't seem to be an example of that.
@GuidoFawkes Starmer bins his welfare reform package in a humiliating climbdown after a massive backbench rebellion - according to the BBC: 'PIP claimants will continue to receive what they currently get, as will recipients of the health element of Universal Credit'
'I wont defend a system that traps people out of work, its immoral' *retains that system at a cost of several billion*
Can Liz Kendall seriously carry on at DWP after this? The whole argument for the green paper has been scrapped
PIP doesn't trapped people out of work as it is non-work related benefit. Hoping Liz knows at least this.
In a way it does. I have met plenty of people getting ESA or UC with LCWRA, PIP, rent paid, maybe a new car on Motability, who have enough money to live on and don't see the point working. Yes if they worked they could get the PIP on top, but they don't see it that way. It makes too many people on benefits too comfortable.
On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
It's that, but also surging crime
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
@GuidoFawkes Starmer bins his welfare reform package in a humiliating climbdown after a massive backbench rebellion - according to the BBC: 'PIP claimants will continue to receive what they currently get, as will recipients of the health element of Universal Credit'
'I wont defend a system that traps people out of work, its immoral' *retains that system at a cost of several billion*
Can Liz Kendall seriously carry on at DWP after this? The whole argument for the green paper has been scrapped
PIP doesn't trapped people out of work as it is non-work related benefit. Hoping Liz knows at least this.
In a way it does. I have met plenty of people getting ESA or UC with LCWRA, PIP, rent paid, maybe a new car on Motability, who have enough money to live on and don't see the point working. Yes if they worked they could get the PIP on top, but they don't see it that way. It makes too many people on benefits too comfortable.
So ESA traps then out of work not PIP.
UC with LCWRA needs reform far more than PIP and yet this whole debate seems to be about PIP.
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
I genuinely can’t see how that survives a court challenge.
Surely it is quite normal to change things for new claimants/recipients but leave existing recipients wuth grandfather rights
How would paying everyone who retires from next April £4000 a year less in state pension get on? They are telling some 2026 disabled they are not entitled to the support of identical 2025 disabled under the same benefit
Pension is a contributory benefit, PIP isn't. Surely it is open to Parliament to decide that it will no longer pay money to some disabled people. Otherwise you can always increase payments but never decrease them
You have to not discriminate though - all disabled people with the same conditions and outcomes to be treated the same. Otherwise you could just legislate to pay labour party member wheelchair users only
Well, we'll see. Starmer presumably thinks he can get round a discrimination argument.
Thanks to Bart for digging in to the background of Reform councillors.
I'm going to take it as confirmation bias of something that I've been worried about for a while - too many people see politics as a spectator sport, rather than something they need to get involved in. Because more people aren't getting involved in the daily grind of politics, the quality of people available is lower than it would be, if there were more people to choose from.
And so a lot of Reform councillors are councillors from other parties, because there aren't suddenly a thousand new people who are willing to put the time in to get involved. I spent some time doing some campaigning for the Green party, back in the day, but I never wanted to commit the time to try to become a councillor.
A lot of people are unhappy about politics and politicians, and are very quick to damn them all as being all the same - but the obvious remedy for that feeling in a democracy is to get involved yourself to create a better alternative that you can present to the electorate. I think that this is the source of a fundamental weakness in modern democratic politics. Parties have professionalised and talk about "retail politics", as though they seek to provide a service that the voter buys with their vote. But this disassociates voters from playing an active part in the political process. No-one thinks that the way to fix a problem with Tesco providing a shit service is to volunteer and help them to improve, but that's precisely what is required of us as citizens in a democracy, if we think that our politics is shit.
Meet many of the people who are heading for top level political careers - which until recently divided them into either Tory or Labour - when they are of student age, and very many of them are the weirdest of teenagers. By the time they get into Parliament, many of them have worked out how to come across as at least halfway normal, for the punters, but it remains the case that the weird and dysfunctional among us are dramatically over-represented in the House.
It would be interesting to learn the background of the recently resigned Warwickshire council leader, apparently he was absent for the meeting at which he was elected leader.
@GuidoFawkes Starmer bins his welfare reform package in a humiliating climbdown after a massive backbench rebellion - according to the BBC: 'PIP claimants will continue to receive what they currently get, as will recipients of the health element of Universal Credit'
'I wont defend a system that traps people out of work, its immoral' *retains that system at a cost of several billion*
Can Liz Kendall seriously carry on at DWP after this? The whole argument for the green paper has been scrapped
PIP doesn't trapped people out of work as it is non-work related benefit. Hoping Liz knows at least this.
In a way it does. I have met plenty of people getting ESA or UC with LCWRA, PIP, rent paid, maybe a new car on Motability, who have enough money to live on and don't see the point working. Yes if they worked they could get the PIP on top, but they don't see it that way. It makes too many people on benefits too comfortable.
So ESA traps then out of work not PIP.
UC with LCWRA needs reform far more than PIP and yet this whole debate seems to be about PIP.
No, because if they didn't get the PIP they wouldn't be so well off. It's not so much traps you out of work just psychologically seems to tell people they have enough money to live on, so why bother.
Anyone on LCW or LCWRA can earn £400 a month without triggering the taper, yet very few people bother.
On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
It's that, but also surging crime
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
What would be the correlation between non-dom taxes and AirB'n'B rates? A drastic fall in demand for high-priced escorts maybe?
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
I genuinely can’t see how that survives a court challenge.
Surely it is quite normal to change things for new claimants/recipients but leave existing recipients wuth grandfather rights
IIRC when the Coalition raised pension ages and altered some other benefits, the Fox Killer and chums tried to get the Supreme Court to override Parliament, using arguments of equality to all recipients.
It was pointed out at the time that this was, essentially, trying to pass control of welfare spending to the courts.
The Supreme Court ruled that Parliament was supreme.
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
I genuinely can’t see how that survives a court challenge.
Surely it is quite normal to change things for new claimants/recipients but leave existing recipients wuth grandfather rights
How would paying everyone who retires from next April £4000 a year less in state pension get on? They are telling some 2026 disabled they are not entitled to the support of identical 2025 disabled under the same benefit
Pension is a contributory benefit, PIP isn't. Surely it is open to Parliament to decide that it will no longer pay money to some disabled people. Otherwise you can always increase payments but never decrease them
You have to not discriminate though - all disabled people with the same conditions and outcomes to be treated the same. Otherwise you could just legislate to pay labour party member wheelchair users only
Well, we'll see. Starmer presumably thinks he can get round a discrimination argument.
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
I genuinely can’t see how that survives a court challenge.
Surely it is quite normal to change things for new claimants/recipients but leave existing recipients wuth grandfather rights
How would paying everyone who retires from next April £4000 a year less in state pension get on? They are telling some 2026 disabled they are not entitled to the support of identical 2025 disabled under the same benefit
Plenty of things are different for different age/claim dates.
Closing benefits to claims after a date is something like traditional. For example, the year after I did my A levels, they ended the the thing where you could claim benefits between A levels and starting university, as “unemployed”.
The two child benefit limit only applies to children born after April 2017.
So anyone with three children born before April 2017 gets more benefits than someone whose 3rd child was born after April 2017.
This has not been challenged in the Courts.
Also, the new state pension was introduced in April 2016. Anyone retiring after that date gets a different state pension than anyone retiring earlier. Again, that has not been challenged in the Courts (NB. This is a completely different issue to WASPI).
36% of women 16-24 have a mental health condition? Is it unkind to wonder if this involves some sort of frolicking about with the meaning of words? It's a bit like the recent: 'One fifth of children have a special educational need or disability'. Can any of this be really true in the normal meaning of the concepts? I doubt it.
On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
It's that, but also surging crime
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
What would be the correlation between non-dom taxes and AirB'n'B rates? A drastic fall in demand for high-priced escorts maybe?
Yes, I don't believe this is primarily non-doms, it is the image of London as dangerous, hostile and overpriced
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
I genuinely can’t see how that survives a court challenge.
Surely it is quite normal to change things for new claimants/recipients but leave existing recipients wuth grandfather rights
How would paying everyone who retires from next April £4000 a year less in state pension get on? They are telling some 2026 disabled they are not entitled to the support of identical 2025 disabled under the same benefit
Pension is a contributory benefit, PIP isn't. Surely it is open to Parliament to decide that it will no longer pay money to some disabled people. Otherwise you can always increase payments but never decrease them
That was exactly the aim of the court case under the Coalition - to take control of welfare spending from Parliament and move it to the courts. On an ever upward rachet.
I see that the 50 days of competent government challenge has been postponed yet again.
Postponed indefinitely.
Utter shambles
I am utterly amazed how unsuited to be PM Starmer is, and Reeves as COE
Shambles doesn't begin to describe.
We will now it seems have two separate PIP scoring schemes depending on whether you are pre-existing and being e-assessed or you are new to PIP.
What a clownshow.
Leaves Reeves with billions to find down the sofa.
Time to deal finally with the Triple Lock???
I can't remember who is the employment lawyer around here but at a conference on Tuesday it was pointed out that companies will need different processes going forward to handle probation and none probationary staff..
On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
It's that, but also surging crime
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
What would be the correlation between non-dom taxes and AirB'n'B rates? A drastic fall in demand for high-priced escorts maybe?
Yes, I don't believe this is primarily non-doms, it is the image of London as dangerous, hostile and overpriced
It's toxic
It's also not true. Someone at my client's office yesterday was saying that Baker Street was rife with phone thieves and it really, really isn't. If you want to see thieves go to Barcelona or Rome.
On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
It's that, but also surging crime
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
What would be the correlation between non-dom taxes and AirB'n'B rates? A drastic fall in demand for high-priced escorts maybe?
Yes, I don't believe this is primarily non-doms, it is the image of London as dangerous, hostile and overpriced
It's toxic
Is it just an 'image' or is there some reality behind it? I'm referring to the 'dangerous and hostile' bit.
Reform need incumbent councillors who have defected from other parties given the limited political experience of most of their local candidates so they have some who know how local government works helping run councils they now control
On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
It's that, but also surging crime
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
What would be the correlation between non-dom taxes and AirB'n'B rates? A drastic fall in demand for high-priced escorts maybe?
Yes, I don't believe this is primarily non-doms, it is the image of London as dangerous, hostile and overpriced
It's toxic
It's also not true. Someone at my client's office yesterday was saying that Baker Street was rife with phone thieves and it really, really isn't. If you want to see thieves go to Barcelona or Rome.
Are you joking?!
London is appalling for phone theft. Other western European cities are bad, but London is REALLY bad
"Sadly, my experience is now depressingly common. Nearly one in three people in the UK have had their mobile phone stolen, according to a new study by the fintech start-up Nuke From Orbit. The data reveals that 29 per cent of British adults have been victims, up from 17 per cent in 2023, and less than a quarter of those surveyed said their first instinct was to contact the police, instead choosing to contact their banks and mobile carriers."
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
I genuinely can’t see how that survives a court challenge.
Surely it is quite normal to change things for new claimants/recipients but leave existing recipients wuth grandfather rights
IIRC when the Coalition raised pension ages and altered some other benefits, the Fox Killer and chums tried to get the Supreme Court to override Parliament, using arguments of equality to all recipients.
It was pointed out at the time that this was, essentially, trying to pass control of welfare spending to the courts.
The Supreme Court ruled that Parliament was supreme.
On the whole the SC treats parliament as supreme, but this means that the courts in considering any case about government action have to look at the totality of laws parliament has been pleased to pass since about 1200. Sometimes they have to unravel contradictions and make sense of things that are senseless.
It is right that the courts do not allow government to ignore laws when the rest of us have to obey them. It is also right that courts interpret news laws in the light that is cast by pre-existing ones. The parliament that passes laws also has the unique power to repeal them.
Fun fact I learned today from HMRC: from 2027 small LTD companies will have to file public profit and loss. So everyone can find out how much (or how little, in my case) I earn.
Going to be hard for small or new companies to bid for projects now - they'll be ruled out based on financial fragility.
Reform need incumbent councillors who have defected from other parties given the limited political experience of most of their local candidates so they have some who know how local government works helping run councils they now control
The key is or will be the relationships with senior officers in the authority.
On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
It's that, but also surging crime
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
What would be the correlation between non-dom taxes and AirB'n'B rates? A drastic fall in demand for high-priced escorts maybe?
Yes, I don't believe this is primarily non-doms, it is the image of London as dangerous, hostile and overpriced
It's toxic
Is it just an 'image' or is there some reality behind it? I'm referring to the 'dangerous and hostile' bit.
The UK is the rape capital of the western world
"Rape offences have increased dramatically in England and Wales since 2012/13 when there were 16,038 offences. After this year, rape offences increased substantially, reaching a high of 69,973 offences in the 2021/22 reporting year, before falling slightly to 68,949 in 2022/23, and to 67,928 in 2023/24. When 2023/24 is compared with the 2002/03 reporting year, there was an almost sixfold increase in the number of rape offences recorded by the police in England and Wales. "
X Tom Harris 🇬🇧@MrTCHarris There's a pattern developing here. Announce a radical but unpopular policy, get tons of grief from voters, then once you've been irreparably damaged, perform a U-turn so you get neither the policy nor popularity. Bloody genius. https://x.com/MrTCHarris/status/1938327501962678304
I've long been of the view the current low-grade conflict suits a lot of the players - obviously not those doing the fighting and the dying but those supplying the weapons have been the big winners and between the conflict and the coming of Trump, arms manufacturers seem set for another bonanza as European countries ramp up defence spending.
I see that the 50 days of competent government challenge has been postponed yet again.
Postponed indefinitely.
Utter shambles
I am utterly amazed how unsuited to be PM Starmer is, and Reeves as COE
Shambles doesn't begin to describe.
We will now it seems have two separate PIP scoring schemes depending on whether you are pre-existing and being e-assessed or you are new to PIP.
What a clownshow.
Leaves Reeves with billions to find down the sofa.
Time to deal finally with the Triple Lock???
Obviously it should; but this single move would probably shift the odds on Reform forming the next government; our small state low tax friends would be: restoring the triple lock, nationalising steel, restoring WFA in full and abolishing the two child cap.
Fun fact I learned today from HMRC: from 2027 small LTD companies will have to file public profit and loss. So everyone can find out how much (or how little, in my case) I earn.
Going to be hard for small or new companies to bid for projects now - they'll be ruled out based on financial fragility.
Is this a pointless change by Starmer or a pointless change by HMRC?
I understand Starmer’s offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever. There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants. This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029. I an pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe below this will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday’s vote.
There will also be “grandfathering” of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants. My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels - led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier - have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups. This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday. But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn
Court cases incoming from new claimants. Equality act, discrimination etc etc. Multi billion pound u turn that might not survive contact with the court system. Why didn't he just pull it and start on proper reform?! Oh well, damage done now if it even gets through
I genuinely can’t see how that survives a court challenge.
Surely it is quite normal to change things for new claimants/recipients but leave existing recipients wuth grandfather rights
IIRC when the Coalition raised pension ages and altered some other benefits, the Fox Killer and chums tried to get the Supreme Court to override Parliament, using arguments of equality to all recipients.
It was pointed out at the time that this was, essentially, trying to pass control of welfare spending to the courts.
The Supreme Court ruled that Parliament was supreme.
On the whole the SC treats parliament as supreme, but this means that the courts in considering any case about government action have to look at the totality of laws parliament has been pleased to pass since about 1200. Sometimes they have to unravel contradictions and make sense of things that are senseless.
It is right that the courts do not allow government to ignore laws when the rest of us have to obey them. It is also right that courts interpret news laws in the light that is cast by pre-existing ones. The parliament that passes laws also has the unique power to repeal them.
For some reason, trans activists get very angry when you tell them that the Supreme Court actually said “This is what the current laws sum up to. If you want different, change the law”.
36% of women 16-24 have a mental health condition? Is it unkind to wonder if this involves some sort of frolicking about with the meaning of words? It's a bit like the recent: 'One fifth of children have a special educational need or disability'. Can any of this be really true in the normal meaning of the concepts? I doubt it.
I don't know either but it was repeatedly said at the time lockdowns would instigate and exacerbate mental health problems - is there any evidence the rise in mental health problems among adults and SEN referrals among children is linked to the social and cultural impacts of the 2020-21 lockdowns?
Fun fact I learned today from HMRC: from 2027 small LTD companies will have to file public profit and loss. So everyone can find out how much (or how little, in my case) I earn.
Going to be hard for small or new companies to bid for projects now - they'll be ruled out based on financial fragility.
Is this a pointless change by Starmer or a pointless change by HMRC?
Previous government and/or HMRC. Alledgedly to prevent money laundering.
I see that the 50 days of competent government challenge has been postponed yet again.
Postponed indefinitely.
Utter shambles
I am utterly amazed how unsuited to be PM Starmer is, and Reeves as COE
Shambles doesn't begin to describe.
We will now it seems have two separate PIP scoring schemes depending on whether you are pre-existing and being e-assessed or you are new to PIP.
What a clownshow.
Leaves Reeves with billions to find down the sofa.
Time to deal finally with the Triple Lock???
Time to return the State Pension increase to CPI only as per my post last night? That will save £ BIG
Yep. 100x yep.
This triple lock nonsense has to end.
And inheritance tax needs huge reform. Far more should pay something. The boomers should not be leaving effectively one million £ to their kids without paying a penny towards social care and NHS which they are draining of resources faster than the world land speed record.
I've long been of the view the current low-grade conflict suits a lot of the players - obviously not those doing the fighting and the dying but those supplying the weapons have been the big winners and between the conflict and the coming of Trump, arms manufacturers seem set for another bonanza as European countries ramp up defence spending.
Part of the argument is that Ukraine must, and can, run faster with innovation in the new defence technologies and military strategies ETA necessity is the mother of invention, as someone said
On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
It's that, but also surging crime
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
What would be the correlation between non-dom taxes and AirB'n'B rates? A drastic fall in demand for high-priced escorts maybe?
Yes, I don't believe this is primarily non-doms, it is the image of London as dangerous, hostile and overpriced
It's toxic
Is it just an 'image' or is there some reality behind it? I'm referring to the 'dangerous and hostile' bit.
The UK is the rape capital of the western world
"Rape offences have increased dramatically in England and Wales since 2012/13 when there were 16,038 offences. After this year, rape offences increased substantially, reaching a high of 69,973 offences in the 2021/22 reporting year, before falling slightly to 68,949 in 2022/23, and to 67,928 in 2023/24. When 2023/24 is compared with the 2002/03 reporting year, there was an almost sixfold increase in the number of rape offences recorded by the police in England and Wales. "
I'm trying to think of a reason why. Perhaps you can
Because of a feedback loop of societal consciousness of a problem, women are believed more, more cases go forward. Which encourages more reporting. Which puts it more in the news. So a woman thinks “that bastard got his deserts. Maybe I should report…”
Note that @DavidL of this parish reports a huge amount of historical cases in his docket. That are now being investigated and taken to court.
Fun fact I learned today from HMRC: from 2027 small LTD companies will have to file public profit and loss. So everyone can find out how much (or how little, in my case) I earn.
Going to be hard for small or new companies to bid for projects now - they'll be ruled out based on financial fragility.
Is this a pointless change by Starmer or a pointless change by HMRC?
Previous government and/or HMRC. Alledgedly to prevent money laundering.
It wasn't exactly difficult to work out what was going on by looking at changes in balance sheets.
I've long been of the view the current low-grade conflict suits a lot of the players - obviously not those doing the fighting and the dying but those supplying the weapons have been the big winners and between the conflict and the coming of Trump, arms manufacturers seem set for another bonanza as European countries ramp up defence spending.
Part of the argument is that Ukraine must, and can, run faster with innovation in the new defence technologies and military strategies ETA necessity is the mother of invention, as someone said
In effect, the conflict becomes a proving ground for new technologies and ways of conducting warfare much as the Balkan Ward foreshadowed what would happen on the Western Front pre 1914.
On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
It's that, but also surging crime
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
What would be the correlation between non-dom taxes and AirB'n'B rates? A drastic fall in demand for high-priced escorts maybe?
Yes, I don't believe this is primarily non-doms, it is the image of London as dangerous, hostile and overpriced
It's toxic
Is it just an 'image' or is there some reality behind it? I'm referring to the 'dangerous and hostile' bit.
The UK is the rape capital of the western world
"Rape offences have increased dramatically in England and Wales since 2012/13 when there were 16,038 offences. After this year, rape offences increased substantially, reaching a high of 69,973 offences in the 2021/22 reporting year, before falling slightly to 68,949 in 2022/23, and to 67,928 in 2023/24. When 2023/24 is compared with the 2002/03 reporting year, there was an almost sixfold increase in the number of rape offences recorded by the police in England and Wales. "
I'm trying to think of a reason why. Perhaps you can
Because of a feedback loop of societal consciousness of a problem, women are believed more, more cases go forward. Which encourages more reporting. Which puts it more in the news. So a woman thinks “that bastard got his deserts. Maybe I should report…”
Note that @DavidL of this parish reports a huge amount of historical cases in his docket. That are now being investigated and taken to court.
Yes, that's it. That's the entire explanation. There can be no other cause
Simon Fletcher @fletchersimon · 25m So to be clear, this is a proposal for a two tier benefits system in which your entitlement is determined by when you apply rather than your actual situation, and so two people in the same position could have radically different outcomes purely depending on timing?
X Tom Harris 🇬🇧@MrTCHarris There's a pattern developing here. Announce a radical but unpopular policy, get tons of grief from voters, then once you've been irreparably damaged, perform a U-turn so you get neither the policy nor popularity. Bloody genius. https://x.com/MrTCHarris/status/1938327501962678304
I'm not sure about the "irreparably damaged" bit - let's see where we are in 24-30 months time. It may well be this "little local difficulty" will be long forgotten.
I do agree political management needs to be improved but when you have a majority of 170 and the public finances are where they are, you simply can't back away from everything unpopular just because a lot of people shout about it.
The alternative is the inertia and the constant kicking of the can down the road which characterised the Sunak/Hunt period in office.
On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
It's that, but also surging crime
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
What would be the correlation between non-dom taxes and AirB'n'B rates? A drastic fall in demand for high-priced escorts maybe?
Yes, I don't believe this is primarily non-doms, it is the image of London as dangerous, hostile and overpriced
It's toxic
It's also not true. Someone at my client's office yesterday was saying that Baker Street was rife with phone thieves and it really, really isn't. If you want to see thieves go to Barcelona or Rome.
For years I've strolled around London (inc the centre) with my phone tucked in my back pocket visible to all. I'm not even remotely careful with it. I sometimes even leave it unattended on a table for a short period. It's never been touched.
MAGA calling for the NY Dem mayor candidate to be deported.
Which seems at best unthought through. If he really is going to be communist disaster they predict then why not let him run against the GOP/Trump candidate? And even if he wins then their logic should be that he will destroy NY and therefore show that AOC should never be POTUS?
@GuidoFawkes Starmer bins his welfare reform package in a humiliating climbdown after a massive backbench rebellion - according to the BBC: 'PIP claimants will continue to receive what they currently get, as will recipients of the health element of Universal Credit'
'I wont defend a system that traps people out of work, its immoral' *retains that system at a cost of several billion*
Can Liz Kendall seriously carry on at DWP after this? The whole argument for the green paper has been scrapped
PIP doesn't trapped people out of work as it is non-work related benefit. Hoping Liz knows at least this.
In a way it does. I have met plenty of people getting ESA or UC with LCWRA, PIP, rent paid, maybe a new car on Motability, who have enough money to live on and don't see the point working. Yes if they worked they could get the PIP on top, but they don't see it that way. It makes too many people on benefits too comfortable.
So ESA traps then out of work not PIP.
UC with LCWRA needs reform far more than PIP and yet this whole debate seems to be about PIP.
No, because if they didn't get the PIP they wouldn't be so well off. It's not so much traps you out of work just psychologically seems to tell people they have enough money to live on, so why bother.
Anyone on LCW or LCWRA can earn £400 a month without triggering the taper, yet very few people bother.
Comments
Lawyers who make a living ensuring that governments abide by the rule of law, and that those who have the power to change the law abide by the laws they have created are doing us all a favour. It is one of the distinguishing marks of difference between us and North Korea.
Those who are doing this in the USA at the moment are quiet heroes. Ours are not heroic because we respect the rule of law. Good.
@GuidoFawkes
Starmer bins his welfare reform package in a humiliating climbdown after a massive backbench rebellion - according to the BBC: 'PIP claimants will continue to receive what they currently get, as will recipients of the health element of Universal Credit'
Personally, I think trolls and bot farms are a significant factor in this problem.
On current form the next election is Labour v Reform. Only one of those two is serious. Another advantage for Labour is that the Tories could well recover ground, and split the non Labour vote in a way which can only help Labour.
*retains that system at a cost of several billion*
Can Liz Kendall seriously carry on at DWP after this? The whole argument for the green paper has been scrapped
If we had growth in the economy and people were feeling richer, nobody would give a shit what the trolls on tw@tter were saying today. Blair had that luxury, Cameron was fairly honest upfront that what you were getting if he got into power and come 2015 people were a bit more optimistic that things were perhaps turning around.
But they also need to be a leader and to inspire: one of the problems with the current Labour leadership is they don’t really generate any great enthusiasm with their grassroots or their members - hence MPs being less loyal.
What the PM says gets covered, and attended to as long as it is interesting and important. Ask Blair or Thatcher. Or even Trump. Farage can do it and his party only empties the bins in Lincolnshire.
That beats me. Bravo
I am utterly amazed how unsuited to be PM Starmer is, and Reeves as COE
Lindsey Graham: "I don't know where the 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium exists, but it wasn't part of the target set."
@kylegriffin1.bsky.social
Breaking: After a classified briefing with Cabinet officials, Sen. Chris Murphy says: "I walk away from that briefing still under the belief that we have not obliterated the programs."
"The president was deliberately misleading the public when he said the program was obliterated."
Things like this are why they should have pulled it and consulted properly
On another recent topic; ferries. Can I put a word in for the short Fishnish to Lochaline run, running regularly throughout the year connecting two places for no tremendously good reason. One of the idlest things I know of a summer afternoon is to be on it as a foot passenger just because it is there.
6/5 is value for those who want to bet on things four years away IMHO. 11/8 is not.
I shall defer terror until 2029 when we can all read Reform's manifesto - which will be a fascinating read. I expect it to be a nationalist, closed borders, social democrat welfarist charter + a few bells and whistles.
On the decline of AirBNB prices in prime London and whether it's due to non dom tax changes.
Now it is solidly Reform, as I reported, because "we've tried everything else"
I see no sign of Labour dealing with that "we've tried everything else" feeling. I strongly suspect that by the end of their term immigration will be down but all the damage it is doing will be ongoing (and likely a lot worse, so much is baked in). And the boat people will still be an issue in some form
At the same time it is obvious growth is not going to roar into life, the govt has no ideas for reforming the NHS or social care, investment will be weak, the tax base will still be shrinking, and foreign policy will still consist of things like Chagos and reparations, because that's what Labour DO
By 2028 people will be utterly desperate and disgusted by all this. So Reform will win, as things stand
A friend of mine went to Shepherd's Bush Green this week, and there are signs saying "it is wrong to sexually assault or harrass women, please don't do it"
Maybe they've always been there? Maybe this is new. But Sweet Jesus F C
X is also full of stories of asylum seekers being busted for sex crimes. It is remarkable this isn't a bigger story
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/jun/26/young-people-england-common-mental-health-conditions-nhs-survey
Demand appears still to be increasing.
Good header, btw.
Support For The Big Beautiful Bill:
Oppose: 55%
Support: 29%
Quinnipiac / June 24, 2025
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1938304311521419674
UC with LCWRA needs reform far more than PIP and yet this whole debate seems to be about PIP.
Bunch of Medicaid/ACA cuts invalidated.
It’s the main power the minority party has in this process, and Democrats are using it.
https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1938308556995862766
Anyone on LCW or LCWRA can earn £400 a month without triggering the taper, yet very few people bother.
A drastic fall in demand for high-priced escorts maybe?
It was pointed out at the time that this was, essentially, trying to pass control of welfare spending to the courts.
The Supreme Court ruled that Parliament was supreme.
https://x.com/growing_daniel/status/1938259644948095269
We will now it seems have two separate PIP scoring schemes depending on whether you are pre-existing and being e-assessed or you are new to PIP.
What a clownshow.
Leaves Reeves with billions to find down the sofa.
Time to deal finally with the Triple Lock???
Closing benefits to claims after a date is something like traditional. For example, the year after I did my A levels, they ended the the thing where you could claim benefits between A levels and starting university, as “unemployed”.
Married Couple’s Allowance is another one
So anyone with three children born before April 2017 gets more benefits than someone whose 3rd child was born after April 2017.
This has not been challenged in the Courts.
Also, the new state pension was introduced in April 2016. Anyone retiring after that date gets a different state pension than anyone retiring earlier. Again, that has not been challenged in the Courts (NB. This is a completely different issue to WASPI).
So, MAYBE, these changes would stand up in Court.
@samstein
·
59m
A Canadian has died in ICE custody, cause under investigation
https://x.com/samstein/status/1938324312898826478
It's toxic
Andriy Zagorodnyuk, former Ukranian minister of defence, promotes the Orwellian solution of non-ending war between Ukraine and Russia:
By ensuring that Russia’s war is operationally pointless, Ukraine can survive, adapt, and achieve success, no matter how prolonged the war.
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2025/06/ukraines-new-theory-of-victory-should-be-strategic-neutralization?lang=en
Fascinating read, hat-tip Phillips O'Brien
Comprehensively defeated on the Supreme Court.
London is appalling for phone theft. Other western European cities are bad, but London is REALLY bad
"Sadly, my experience is now depressingly common. Nearly one in three people in the UK have had their mobile phone stolen, according to a new study by the fintech start-up Nuke From Orbit. The data reveals that 29 per cent of British adults have been victims, up from 17 per cent in 2023, and less than a quarter of those surveyed said their first instinct was to contact the police, instead choosing to contact their banks and mobile carriers."
London is the centre of this
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/phone-theft-is-out-of-control-in-london/
It is right that the courts do not allow government to ignore laws when the rest of us have to obey them. It is also right that courts interpret news laws in the light that is cast by pre-existing ones. The parliament that passes laws also has the unique power to repeal them.
Going to be hard for small or new companies to bid for projects now - they'll be ruled out based on financial fragility.
"Rape offences have increased dramatically in England and Wales since 2012/13 when there were 16,038 offences. After this year, rape offences increased substantially, reaching a high of 69,973 offences in the 2021/22 reporting year, before falling slightly to 68,949 in 2022/23, and to 67,928 in 2023/24. When 2023/24 is compared with the 2002/03 reporting year, there was an almost sixfold increase in the number of rape offences recorded by the police in England and Wales. "
https://www.statista.com/statistics/283100/recorded-rape-offences-in-england-and-wales/
I'm trying to think of a reason why. Perhaps you can
Tom Harris 🇬🇧@MrTCHarris
There's a pattern developing here. Announce a radical but unpopular policy, get tons of grief from voters, then once you've been irreparably damaged, perform a U-turn so you get neither the policy nor popularity. Bloody genius.
https://x.com/MrTCHarris/status/1938327501962678304
This triple lock nonsense has to end.
And inheritance tax needs huge reform. Far more should pay something. The boomers should not be leaving effectively one million £ to their kids without paying a penny towards social care and NHS which they are draining of resources faster than the world land speed record.
ETA necessity is the mother of invention, as someone said
Note that @DavidL of this parish reports a huge amount of historical cases in his docket. That are now being investigated and taken to court.
Simon Fletcher
@fletchersimon
·
25m
So to be clear, this is a proposal for a two tier benefits system in which your entitlement is determined by when you apply rather than your actual situation, and so two people in the same position could have radically different outcomes purely depending on timing?
I do agree political management needs to be improved but when you have a majority of 170 and the public finances are where they are, you simply can't back away from everything unpopular just because a lot of people shout about it.
The alternative is the inertia and the constant kicking of the can down the road which characterised the Sunak/Hunt period in office.
Which seems at best unthought through. If he really is going to be communist disaster they predict then why not let him run against the GOP/Trump candidate? And even if he wins then their logic should be that he will destroy NY and therefore show that AOC should never be POTUS?