I have just been asked to write about A PARTICULAR SUBJECT
This has happened before. Difference this time is that it’s a well known foreign magazine. They’ve noticed my flinty opinions and are so keen on them they are happy for me to write in English and then they will translate into foreign
Hah. I’m becoming an international expert!
This has always confused me. Isn't the clever use of a language lost once translated?
On another matter, I noted you said, yesterday I think, you were looking for a life change in the next few years. What did you have in mind?
I think the true skill of translation is to take well written text, clever use of language and translate it into another language in such a way that the cleverness and quality of text is preserved.
They’ve asked him to write a piece about his upcoming flat makeover for their homes and gardens supplement, so it’ll be mainly pictures anyway.
I’m travelling on the Thalys and I have an inkling where he may have drawn his inspiration from.
"Leader of the Opposition Kemi Badenoch has this week said that she’ll consider Danish-style laws to ensure the “active integration” of immigrants to Britain."
"Leader of the Opposition Kemi Badenoch has this week said that she’ll consider Danish-style laws to ensure the “active integration” of immigrants to Britain."
The other paid for international streaming service the BBC owns, Britbox, has 5 million subscribers. Which is not nothing but is tiny compared to all the big players.
"Leader of the Opposition Kemi Badenoch has this week said that she’ll consider Danish-style laws to ensure the “active integration” of immigrants to Britain."
I was playimg about with figures after looking at the MRPs with a Tory 'Lib Dem 2015' collapse to almost extinction and was drawing up a list of seats i cannot see the Tories losing under any circumstances next time. I currently see no way they lose
Harrow East Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Croydon South Hertsmere Windsor Beaconsfield Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Dumfriesshire Mid Bucks Rutland and Stamford Kenilworth and Southam Chester South and Eddisbury
So in my mind the absolute worst case Tory result (this time) is just over 10 seats
In all likelihood I think 20 is probably their true floor and 200 their absolute ceiling on recovery to mid twenties % with Ref and Lab on similar
And we are within movement seen during the first half of 2025 of all of those happening
I haven't checked the others but why on earth could the Tories not lose Windsor. This area has been strong for the LDs and although boundary changes made it safer for the Tories the last result was:
Con 16.5K Lab 10K LD 9.5K
That looks very winnable to me for the LDs and certainly not in the Tory rock solid category.
On another matter I notice that the MRP today gave a few seats to Reform in Devon and Cornwall with 4 party splits and all quite close. I suspect tactical voting will give some of those to the LDs who will target and squeeze the Tory/Lab vote.
They could win it. The MRP has it Con 30%, LD 26%, Ref 19%, Lab 15%, Grn 9%.
Also the old favourites such as Fahrenheit 451 have gone.
Does it mention pussy? But they have also banned "The Complete Book of Dogs". Heaven knows what the nutters would make of a cat pencil sharpener - that would presumably be gay and foment bestiality.
I was playimg about with figures after looking at the MRPs with a Tory 'Lib Dem 2015' collapse to almost extinction and was drawing up a list of seats i cannot see the Tories losing under any circumstances next time. I currently see no way they lose
Harrow East Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Croydon South Hertsmere Windsor Beaconsfield Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Dumfriesshire Mid Bucks Rutland and Stamford Kenilworth and Southam Chester South and Eddisbury
So in my mind the absolute worst case Tory result (this time) is just over 10 seats
In all likelihood I think 20 is probably their true floor and 200 their absolute ceiling on recovery to mid twenties % with Ref and Lab on similar
And we are within movement seen during the first half of 2025 of all of those happening
I haven't checked the others but why on earth could the Tories not lose Windsor. This area has been strong for the LDs and although boundary changes made it safer for the Tories the last result was:
Con 16.5K Lab 10K LD 9.5K
That looks very winnable to me for the LDs and certainly not in the Tory rock solid category.
On another matter I notice that the MRP today gave a few seats to Reform in Devon and Cornwall with 4 party splits and all quite close. I suspect tactical voting will give some of those to the LDs who will target and squeeze the Tory/Lab vote.
They could win it. The MRP has it Con 30%, LD 26%, Ref 19%, Lab 15%, Grn 9%.
The MRPs make everything 'winnable' because they rely on universal movement and no 'firewall' type campaigning. In worst case world every tory is going to be campaigning in seats like this to stay 'on the board'
I was playimg about with figures after looking at the MRPs with a Tory 'Lib Dem 2015' collapse to almost extinction and was drawing up a list of seats i cannot see the Tories losing under any circumstances next time. I currently see no way they lose
Harrow East Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Croydon South Hertsmere Windsor Beaconsfield Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Dumfriesshire Mid Bucks Rutland and Stamford Kenilworth and Southam Chester South and Eddisbury
So in my mind the absolute worst case Tory result (this time) is just over 10 seats
In all likelihood I think 20 is probably their true floor and 200 their absolute ceiling on recovery to mid twenties % with Ref and Lab on similar
And we are within movement seen during the first half of 2025 of all of those happening
I haven't checked the others but why on earth could the Tories not lose Windsor. This area has been strong for the LDs and although boundary changes made it safer for the Tories the last result was:
Con 16.5K Lab 10K LD 9.5K
That looks very winnable to me for the LDs and certainly not in the Tory rock solid category.
On another matter I notice that the MRP today gave a few seats to Reform in Devon and Cornwall with 4 party splits and all quite close. I suspect tactical voting will give some of those to the LDs who will target and squeeze the Tory/Lab vote.
LDs even at their height never broke 30% in Windsor, its not particularly strong for them and its not particularly Reformy territory to see further Tory drift (who are already bottom feeding on 36%) 18th safest seat on swing required
On Devon etc why would LDs get tactical votes in 4 party splits seats? Tactical votes are when its one vs another
Re Devon: Because if the Tories and Labour are in the doldrums and Reform are on a high some of that Tory and Labour vote can be squeezed by the LDs with the message to keep Reform out. You know 'Only the LDs can beat Reform here' nonsense. And it is not like they are not well organised and with a substantial vote already here and much better organised than Reform. Not expecting that in Plymouth or Exeter obviously. I think you can expect them to do well if there was an actual election now. Just saying these are not nailed on Reform seats from Con/Lab with it so tight according to the MRP.
Re Windsor:2023 Council election results: Con 7 (-16), LD 22 (+13) Ind 12 and only 7K behind with a 10k Labour vote to squeeze. And a very well organised LD party locally. Yet you put it in the Tories top 12 safest seats. Top 12 safest?????
"Leader of the Opposition Kemi Badenoch has this week said that she’ll consider Danish-style laws to ensure the “active integration” of immigrants to Britain."
Also the old favourites such as Fahrenheit 451 have gone.
Does it mention pussy? But they have also banned "The Complete Book of Dogs". Heaven knows what the nutters would make of a cat pencil sharpener - that would presumably be gay and foment bestiality.
Farenheit 451 you say is a banned book. Life imitating art?
I was playimg about with figures after looking at the MRPs with a Tory 'Lib Dem 2015' collapse to almost extinction and was drawing up a list of seats i cannot see the Tories losing under any circumstances next time. I currently see no way they lose
Harrow East Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Croydon South Hertsmere Windsor Beaconsfield Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Dumfriesshire Mid Bucks Rutland and Stamford Kenilworth and Southam Chester South and Eddisbury
So in my mind the absolute worst case Tory result (this time) is just over 10 seats
In all likelihood I think 20 is probably their true floor and 200 their absolute ceiling on recovery to mid twenties % with Ref and Lab on similar
And we are within movement seen during the first half of 2025 of all of those happening
I haven't checked the others but why on earth could the Tories not lose Windsor. This area has been strong for the LDs and although boundary changes made it safer for the Tories the last result was:
Con 16.5K Lab 10K LD 9.5K
That looks very winnable to me for the LDs and certainly not in the Tory rock solid category.
On another matter I notice that the MRP today gave a few seats to Reform in Devon and Cornwall with 4 party splits and all quite close. I suspect tactical voting will give some of those to the LDs who will target and squeeze the Tory/Lab vote.
They could win it. The MRP has it Con 30%, LD 26%, Ref 19%, Lab 15%, Grn 9%.
Thanks Andy. Didn't look at the MRP. I am normally very cynical of the MRPs, but I am happy to be a hypocrite if it serves my cause
"Leader of the Opposition Kemi Badenoch has this week said that she’ll consider Danish-style laws to ensure the “active integration” of immigrants to Britain."
Labour are on the ropes over the cruel Welfare Reform Bill, so Kemi changes the subject...
Or delivers the old 1-2...
Not really.
And whereas the Welfare Reform Bill is a fiasco entirely of the Labour Government's own authorship, Farage can merely question Badenoch on why such a "Denmark" policy was not enacted during the era of the Conservative Boriswave.
I am not sure immigration is the Tory winner, Kemi thinks it is.
I was playimg about with figures after looking at the MRPs with a Tory 'Lib Dem 2015' collapse to almost extinction and was drawing up a list of seats i cannot see the Tories losing under any circumstances next time. I currently see no way they lose
Harrow East Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Croydon South Hertsmere Windsor Beaconsfield Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Dumfriesshire Mid Bucks Rutland and Stamford Kenilworth and Southam Chester South and Eddisbury
So in my mind the absolute worst case Tory result (this time) is just over 10 seats
In all likelihood I think 20 is probably their true floor and 200 their absolute ceiling on recovery to mid twenties % with Ref and Lab on similar
And we are within movement seen during the first half of 2025 of all of those happening
I haven't checked the others but why on earth could the Tories not lose Windsor. This area has been strong for the LDs and although boundary changes made it safer for the Tories the last result was:
Con 16.5K Lab 10K LD 9.5K
That looks very winnable to me for the LDs and certainly not in the Tory rock solid category.
On another matter I notice that the MRP today gave a few seats to Reform in Devon and Cornwall with 4 party splits and all quite close. I suspect tactical voting will give some of those to the LDs who will target and squeeze the Tory/Lab vote.
LDs even at their height never broke 30% in Windsor, its not particularly strong for them and its not particularly Reformy territory to see further Tory drift (who are already bottom feeding on 36%) 18th safest seat on swing required
On Devon etc why would LDs get tactical votes in 4 party splits seats? Tactical votes are when its one vs another
Re Devon: Because if the Tories and Labour are in the doldrums and Reform are on a high some of that Tory and Labour vote can be squeezed by the LDs with the message to keep Reform out. You know 'Only the LDs can beat Reform here' nonsense. And it is not like they are not well organised and with a substantial vote already here and much better organised than Reform. Not expecting that in Plymouth or Exeter obviously. I think you can expect them to do well if there was an actual election now. Just saying these are not nailed on Reform seats from Con/Lab with it so tight according to the MRP.
Re Windsor:2023 Council election results: Con 7 (-16), LD 22 (+13) Ind 12 and only 7K behind with a 10k Labour vote to squeeze. And a very well organised LD party locally. Yet you put it in the Tories top 12 safest seats. Top 12 safest?????
The seats the LDs are second or third in in Devon that you mention are Tory held. The idea Tories will tactically vote LD in seats they hold to keep out Reform is for the birds though. They might squeeze some Labour of course
Windsor - 18th safest Tory seat on swing required from their dreadful 2024 result. The 2023 locals are old news. This '10,000 votes to squeeze' thing - not any more as Labour are down by a third from 2024 and i dont buy into this idea that voters are queueing up to vote tactically for the Lib Dems when there is zero GTTO imperative. They simply arent that relevant now Reform are in town. (Neither the LDs nor the Tories as a target) Much more likely the LDs get squeezed into an election as the fourth party. Especially if Davey repeats his fool on a hobby horse campaign tactic
I was playimg about with figures after looking at the MRPs with a Tory 'Lib Dem 2015' collapse to almost extinction and was drawing up a list of seats i cannot see the Tories losing under any circumstances next time. I currently see no way they lose
Harrow East Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Croydon South Hertsmere Windsor Beaconsfield Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Dumfriesshire Mid Bucks Rutland and Stamford Kenilworth and Southam Chester South and Eddisbury
So in my mind the absolute worst case Tory result (this time) is just over 10 seats
In all likelihood I think 20 is probably their true floor and 200 their absolute ceiling on recovery to mid twenties % with Ref and Lab on similar
And we are within movement seen during the first half of 2025 of all of those happening
I haven't checked the others but why on earth could the Tories not lose Windsor. This area has been strong for the LDs and although boundary changes made it safer for the Tories the last result was:
Con 16.5K Lab 10K LD 9.5K
That looks very winnable to me for the LDs and certainly not in the Tory rock solid category.
On another matter I notice that the MRP today gave a few seats to Reform in Devon and Cornwall with 4 party splits and all quite close. I suspect tactical voting will give some of those to the LDs who will target and squeeze the Tory/Lab vote.
LDs even at their height never broke 30% in Windsor, its not particularly strong for them and its not particularly Reformy territory to see further Tory drift (who are already bottom feeding on 36%) 18th safest seat on swing required
On Devon etc why would LDs get tactical votes in 4 party splits seats? Tactical votes are when its one vs another
Re Devon: Because if the Tories and Labour are in the doldrums and Reform are on a high some of that Tory and Labour vote can be squeezed by the LDs with the message to keep Reform out. You know 'Only the LDs can beat Reform here' nonsense. And it is not like they are not well organised and with a substantial vote already here and much better organised than Reform. Not expecting that in Plymouth or Exeter obviously. I think you can expect them to do well if there was an actual election now. Just saying these are not nailed on Reform seats from Con/Lab with it so tight according to the MRP.
Re Windsor:2023 Council election results: Con 7 (-16), LD 22 (+13) Ind 12 and only 7K behind with a 10k Labour vote to squeeze. And a very well organised LD party locally. Yet you put it in the Tories top 12 safest seats. Top 12 safest?????
The seats the LDs are second or third in in Devon that you mention are Tory held. The idea Tories will tactically vote LD in seats they hold to keep out Reform is for the birds though. They might squeeze some Labour of course
Windsor - 18th safest Tory seat on swing required from their dreadful 2024 result. The 2023 locals are old news. This '10,000 votes to squeeze' thing - not any more as Labour are down by a third from 2024 and i dont buy into this idea that voters are queueing up to vote tactically for the Lib Dems when there is zero GTTO imperative. They simply arent that relevant now Reform are in town. (Neither the LDs nor the Tories as a target) Much more likely the LDs get squeezed into an election as the fourth party. Especially if Davey repeats his fool on a hobby horse campaign tactic
If there are Tory tactical voters for the Lib Dems, there will certainly be such voters for Reform, in any event. Especially in areas that voted Leave.
Also the old favourites such as Fahrenheit 451 have gone.
Does it mention pussy? But they have also banned "The Complete Book of Dogs". Heaven knows what the nutters would make of a cat pencil sharpener - that would presumably be gay and foment bestiality.
Farenheit 451 you say is a banned book. Life imitating art?
I was playimg about with figures after looking at the MRPs with a Tory 'Lib Dem 2015' collapse to almost extinction and was drawing up a list of seats i cannot see the Tories losing under any circumstances next time. I currently see no way they lose
Harrow East Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Croydon South Hertsmere Windsor Beaconsfield Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Dumfriesshire Mid Bucks Rutland and Stamford Kenilworth and Southam Chester South and Eddisbury
So in my mind the absolute worst case Tory result (this time) is just over 10 seats
In all likelihood I think 20 is probably their true floor and 200 their absolute ceiling on recovery to mid twenties % with Ref and Lab on similar
And we are within movement seen during the first half of 2025 of all of those happening
I haven't checked the others but why on earth could the Tories not lose Windsor. This area has been strong for the LDs and although boundary changes made it safer for the Tories the last result was:
Con 16.5K Lab 10K LD 9.5K
That looks very winnable to me for the LDs and certainly not in the Tory rock solid category.
On another matter I notice that the MRP today gave a few seats to Reform in Devon and Cornwall with 4 party splits and all quite close. I suspect tactical voting will give some of those to the LDs who will target and squeeze the Tory/Lab vote.
LDs even at their height never broke 30% in Windsor, its not particularly strong for them and its not particularly Reformy territory to see further Tory drift (who are already bottom feeding on 36%) 18th safest seat on swing required
On Devon etc why would LDs get tactical votes in 4 party splits seats? Tactical votes are when its one vs another
Re Devon: Because if the Tories and Labour are in the doldrums and Reform are on a high some of that Tory and Labour vote can be squeezed by the LDs with the message to keep Reform out. You know 'Only the LDs can beat Reform here' nonsense. And it is not like they are not well organised and with a substantial vote already here and much better organised than Reform. Not expecting that in Plymouth or Exeter obviously. I think you can expect them to do well if there was an actual election now. Just saying these are not nailed on Reform seats from Con/Lab with it so tight according to the MRP.
Re Windsor:2023 Council election results: Con 7 (-16), LD 22 (+13) Ind 12 and only 7K behind with a 10k Labour vote to squeeze. And a very well organised LD party locally. Yet you put it in the Tories top 12 safest seats. Top 12 safest?????
The seats the LDs are second or third in in Devon that you mention are Tory held. The idea Tories will tactically vote LD in seats they hold to keep out Reform is for the birds though. They might squeeze some Labour of course
Windsor - 18th safest Tory seat on swing required from their dreadful 2024 result. The 2023 locals are old news. This '10,000 votes to squeeze' thing - not any more as Labour are down by a third from 2024 and i dont buy into this idea that voters are queueing up to vote tactically for the Lib Dems when there is zero GTTO imperative. They simply arent that relevant now Reform are in town. (Neither the LDs nor the Tories as a target) Much more likely the LDs get squeezed into an election as the fourth party. Especially if Davey repeats his fool on a hobby horse campaign tactic
If there are Tory tactical voters for the Lib Dems, there will certainly be such voters for Reform, in any event. Especially in areas that voted Leave.
I cant see any Tories for LD outside Scotland, they are direct opponents almost everywhere relevant because of that LD over performance (to the hustoric) in 24
I was playimg about with figures after looking at the MRPs with a Tory 'Lib Dem 2015' collapse to almost extinction and was drawing up a list of seats i cannot see the Tories losing under any circumstances next time. I currently see no way they lose
Harrow East Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Croydon South Hertsmere Windsor Beaconsfield Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Dumfriesshire Mid Bucks Rutland and Stamford Kenilworth and Southam Chester South and Eddisbury
So in my mind the absolute worst case Tory result (this time) is just over 10 seats
In all likelihood I think 20 is probably their true floor and 200 their absolute ceiling on recovery to mid twenties % with Ref and Lab on similar
And we are within movement seen during the first half of 2025 of all of those happening
I haven't checked the others but why on earth could the Tories not lose Windsor. This area has been strong for the LDs and although boundary changes made it safer for the Tories the last result was:
Con 16.5K Lab 10K LD 9.5K
That looks very winnable to me for the LDs and certainly not in the Tory rock solid category.
On another matter I notice that the MRP today gave a few seats to Reform in Devon and Cornwall with 4 party splits and all quite close. I suspect tactical voting will give some of those to the LDs who will target and squeeze the Tory/Lab vote.
They could win it. The MRP has it Con 30%, LD 26%, Ref 19%, Lab 15%, Grn 9%.
The MRPs make everything 'winnable' because they rely on universal movement and no 'firewall' type campaigning. In worst case world every tory is going to be campaigning in seats like this to stay 'on the board'
In which case, LD +4.
But seriously...
I suspect that there wasn't much tactical voting in Windsor last time, because there wasn't seen to be much point. If the yellow peril can persuade other lefties that they, and only they, can win, they're home and vigorously drying themselves off.
The hardest part will be that persuasion, but that YouGov generates the bar chart they need. And whilst Windsor doesn't have a cathedral, it has a royal peculiar, which probably has the same electoral effect.
I was playimg about with figures after looking at the MRPs with a Tory 'Lib Dem 2015' collapse to almost extinction and was drawing up a list of seats i cannot see the Tories losing under any circumstances next time. I currently see no way they lose
Harrow East Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Croydon South Hertsmere Windsor Beaconsfield Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Dumfriesshire Mid Bucks Rutland and Stamford Kenilworth and Southam Chester South and Eddisbury
So in my mind the absolute worst case Tory result (this time) is just over 10 seats
In all likelihood I think 20 is probably their true floor and 200 their absolute ceiling on recovery to mid twenties % with Ref and Lab on similar
And we are within movement seen during the first half of 2025 of all of those happening
I haven't checked the others but why on earth could the Tories not lose Windsor. This area has been strong for the LDs and although boundary changes made it safer for the Tories the last result was:
Con 16.5K Lab 10K LD 9.5K
That looks very winnable to me for the LDs and certainly not in the Tory rock solid category.
On another matter I notice that the MRP today gave a few seats to Reform in Devon and Cornwall with 4 party splits and all quite close. I suspect tactical voting will give some of those to the LDs who will target and squeeze the Tory/Lab vote.
They could win it. The MRP has it Con 30%, LD 26%, Ref 19%, Lab 15%, Grn 9%.
The MRPs make everything 'winnable' because they rely on universal movement and no 'firewall' type campaigning. In worst case world every tory is going to be campaigning in seats like this to stay 'on the board'
The reason you give is one of the reasons I don't like MRPs and when you know some seats you know the MRP is nonsense. I mean one gave Guildford to Labour at the last GE!!!
However your firewall argument, which I agree with, actually potentially backfires here. Take the seats that the LDs won in Surrey off the Tories. The Tory fight was pitiful, not a firewall. You have to have the resources to put up a firewall. And importantly the LDs weren't targeting Windsor last time. On the contrary, they were busy taking 2 neighbouring seats all of which had a dozen seats neighbouring them that the LDs were taking. Windsors LDs were in those seats. If there were an election now with current polling where do you think Windsors LDs will be?
This is all hypothetical, but on current figures Windsor could be in play. I'm not saying they will win it, but challenging your view that Windsor is one of the Tories 12 safest seats.
The Elon Musk effect continues as Europe’s Tesla sales drop for fifth month in a row
Tesla's sales in Europe have plummeted for the fifth consecutive month, with new figures revealing a significant 28 per cent drop in May.
So? What will be the story in June when they top the sales chart again?
That Elon Musk has shut up about politics? That's the problem, not the cars.
No, the problem is maths. They are lapping 2025 figures vs 2024 figures. 2024 includes sales of the best selling car globally in 2024. Vs no sales in 2025. Deliveries only started properly in June.
The narrative is "nobody wants to buy a Tesla". Which is about to get demolished by like for like sales numbers in June.
What does "They are lapping 2025 figures vs 2024 figures" mean?
"Tesla’s UK car sales drop and took a major hit in May 2025, with a drop of over 45 percent compared to the same month last year. According to early data from various sources online suggest, Tesla registered only 1,758 cars, down sharply from 3,244 in May 2024. This decline happened even as the UK’s overall new car market grew by 4.3 percent year-on-year, with battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales jumping by 28 percent. In short, more people are buying EVs — just not from Tesla."
A drop of 45%. Vs the same month in 2024.
In 2025 they were not selling the Model Y In 2024 they were selling the Model Y In 2024 the Model Y was the best selling car in the world
My point is simple - this news agenda is deliberately misleading.
You are also being a bit misleading; there was (and is) plenty of "legacy" Tesla Model Y stock available for sale, often at very good prices.
So it is not the case that Model Y sales dropped to zero in May due to the existence of the new Model Y.
I made a video where there were literally 11 cars left in UK inventory. So I do speak with facts in mind.
I found these in 30 seconds on Tesla's UK website. All legacy model Ys. All available new for delivery now.
And these are hardly the only legacy Model Y's on there. They're just first ones on the first few pages.
And as it's currently the end of June, so I think we can reasonably conclude they sold some last month.
Why are you posting links - I have eyes. The handful of launch edition cars shipped early May with delivery of the cars people actually bought not coming until the last week of the month. Mass delivery this month.
Again, sales of a car in vast quantities last year (best selling car in the world) vs "I've found 6 cars in inventory, thats comparable isn't it"
Proof will be in the pudding, watch the June numbers...
"It's said that Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum are saving Test cricket. I disagree. These two heroes are saving civilisation. They're saving it from short-form cricket, short-form sport, short attention spans, instant gratification, TikTok, YouTube shorts, dopamine-optimised trivia, fast food that fills you up for ten seconds but leaves you unsatisfed, overly salinated and feeling slightly ill."
I was playimg about with figures after looking at the MRPs with a Tory 'Lib Dem 2015' collapse to almost extinction and was drawing up a list of seats i cannot see the Tories losing under any circumstances next time. I currently see no way they lose
Harrow East Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Croydon South Hertsmere Windsor Beaconsfield Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Dumfriesshire Mid Bucks Rutland and Stamford Kenilworth and Southam Chester South and Eddisbury
So in my mind the absolute worst case Tory result (this time) is just over 10 seats
In all likelihood I think 20 is probably their true floor and 200 their absolute ceiling on recovery to mid twenties % with Ref and Lab on similar
And we are within movement seen during the first half of 2025 of all of those happening
I haven't checked the others but why on earth could the Tories not lose Windsor. This area has been strong for the LDs and although boundary changes made it safer for the Tories the last result was:
Con 16.5K Lab 10K LD 9.5K
That looks very winnable to me for the LDs and certainly not in the Tory rock solid category.
On another matter I notice that the MRP today gave a few seats to Reform in Devon and Cornwall with 4 party splits and all quite close. I suspect tactical voting will give some of those to the LDs who will target and squeeze the Tory/Lab vote.
They could win it. The MRP has it Con 30%, LD 26%, Ref 19%, Lab 15%, Grn 9%.
The MRPs make everything 'winnable' because they rely on universal movement and no 'firewall' type campaigning. In worst case world every tory is going to be campaigning in seats like this to stay 'on the board'
The reason you give is one of the reasons I don't like MRPs and when you know some seats you know the MRP is nonsense. I mean one gave Guildford to Labour at the last GE!!!
However your firewall argument, which I agree with, actually potentially backfires here. Take the seats that the LDs won in Surrey off the Tories. The Tory fight was pitiful, not a firewall. You have to have the resources to put up a firewall. And importantly the LDs weren't targeting Windsor last time. On the contrary, they were busy taking 2 neighbouring seats all of which had a dozen seats neighbouring them that the LDs were taking. Windsors LDs were in those seats. If there were an election now with current polling where do you think Windsors LDs will be?
This is all hypothetical, but on current figures Windsor could be in play. I'm not saying they will win it, but challenging your view that Windsor is one of the Tories 12 safest seats.
It ain't that.
Time will tell. The LDs have to defend 72 seats before they start targetting. And the fact im including Windsor amongst the safer seats (call it top 20 as there are a few others i could swap in at similar leveks of safety - Rishis seat for example or Tatton) shows how precarious it is for them! My view for next time, oft expressed, is that the LDs would be wise mot to assume they are holding on to all those lent GTTO votes from 2024 or that the Tory voter strike in the blue wall will continue. I think the LDs need at least 15% nationally to possibly stand still in seats (assuming the Tories manage ca 20-21%)
Is it worth politicians tweeting these inane points if they can be so brutally taken down by replies? It's surely counter-productive, the publicity from the first tweet is not worth the angry and merciless responses
"It's said that Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum are saving Test cricket. I disagree. These two heroes are saving civilisation. They're saving it from short-form cricket, short-form sport, short attention spans, instant gratification, TikTok, YouTube shorts, dopamine-optimised trivia, fast food that fills you up for ten seconds but leaves you unsatisfed, overly salinated and feeling slightly ill."
Can we have Matthew as prime minister please? 😊
Unfortunately, I bet if you look a lot of viewership for this heroics it is watching the highlights on YouTube and clips on TikTok. Apparently that is what is happening with the football, watching the full match is down, instead they watch the goals on socials.
Is it worth politicians tweeting these inane points if they can be so brutally taken down by replies? It's surely counter-productive, the publicity from the first tweet is not worth the angry and merciless responses
Rentoul has opined that Starmer has reached the 'authority ebbing away' stage (whillst noting his hero Blair hung on for 3 years after his authority galloped) in under a year
Also the old favourites such as Fahrenheit 451 have gone.
Does it mention pussy? But they have also banned "The Complete Book of Dogs". Heaven knows what the nutters would make of a cat pencil sharpener - that would presumably be gay and foment bestiality.
Farenheit 451 you say is a banned book. Life imitating art?
Everyone missed my Hobbesian reference.
(I have just seen it, and admire it.)
Whereas I might ban it for not being "nasty, brutish and short" !
Is it worth politicians tweeting these inane points if they can be so brutally taken down by replies? It's surely counter-productive, the publicity from the first tweet is not worth the angry and merciless responses
Is it a takedown? The guy's X handle would suggest he just might be a ****!
The Elon Musk effect continues as Europe’s Tesla sales drop for fifth month in a row
Tesla's sales in Europe have plummeted for the fifth consecutive month, with new figures revealing a significant 28 per cent drop in May.
So? What will be the story in June when they top the sales chart again?
That Elon Musk has shut up about politics? That's the problem, not the cars.
No, the problem is maths. They are lapping 2025 figures vs 2024 figures. 2024 includes sales of the best selling car globally in 2024. Vs no sales in 2025. Deliveries only started properly in June.
The narrative is "nobody wants to buy a Tesla". Which is about to get demolished by like for like sales numbers in June.
What does "They are lapping 2025 figures vs 2024 figures" mean?
"Tesla’s UK car sales drop and took a major hit in May 2025, with a drop of over 45 percent compared to the same month last year. According to early data from various sources online suggest, Tesla registered only 1,758 cars, down sharply from 3,244 in May 2024. This decline happened even as the UK’s overall new car market grew by 4.3 percent year-on-year, with battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales jumping by 28 percent. In short, more people are buying EVs — just not from Tesla."
A drop of 45%. Vs the same month in 2024.
In 2025 they were not selling the Model Y In 2024 they were selling the Model Y In 2024 the Model Y was the best selling car in the world
My point is simple - this news agenda is deliberately misleading.
You are also being a bit misleading; there was (and is) plenty of "legacy" Tesla Model Y stock available for sale, often at very good prices.
So it is not the case that Model Y sales dropped to zero in May due to the existence of the new Model Y.
I made a video where there were literally 11 cars left in UK inventory. So I do speak with facts in mind.
I found these in 30 seconds on Tesla's UK website. All legacy model Ys. All available new for delivery now.
And these are hardly the only legacy Model Y's on there. They're just first ones on the first few pages.
And as it's currently the end of June, so I think we can reasonably conclude they sold some last month.
Why are you posting links - I have eyes. The handful of launch edition cars shipped early May with delivery of the cars people actually bought not coming until the last week of the month. Mass delivery this month.
Again, sales of a car in vast quantities last year (best selling car in the world) vs "I've found 6 cars in inventory, thats comparable isn't it"
Proof will be in the pudding, watch the June numbers...
Proof will be the July / August sales if 6 months of pent up demand is being delivered in June
Is it worth politicians tweeting these inane points if they can be so brutally taken down by replies? It's surely counter-productive, the publicity from the first tweet is not worth the angry and merciless responses
Is it a takedown? The guy's X handle would suggest he just might be a ****!
I've no idea who he is, I haven't even looked. Who cares? It just looks really really bad for Starmer
You get his cones hotline-esque tweet (actually about wifi for trains, which is not a terrible idea) but as you have clicked on it you see the first reply. And it is that. And it now has 100,000s of views
This is my point. More political damage is incurred than benefit gained. They should probably stop Starmer tweeting entirely
The Elon Musk effect continues as Europe’s Tesla sales drop for fifth month in a row
Tesla's sales in Europe have plummeted for the fifth consecutive month, with new figures revealing a significant 28 per cent drop in May.
So? What will be the story in June when they top the sales chart again?
That Elon Musk has shut up about politics? That's the problem, not the cars.
No, the problem is maths. They are lapping 2025 figures vs 2024 figures. 2024 includes sales of the best selling car globally in 2024. Vs no sales in 2025. Deliveries only started properly in June.
The narrative is "nobody wants to buy a Tesla". Which is about to get demolished by like for like sales numbers in June.
What does "They are lapping 2025 figures vs 2024 figures" mean?
"Tesla’s UK car sales drop and took a major hit in May 2025, with a drop of over 45 percent compared to the same month last year. According to early data from various sources online suggest, Tesla registered only 1,758 cars, down sharply from 3,244 in May 2024. This decline happened even as the UK’s overall new car market grew by 4.3 percent year-on-year, with battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales jumping by 28 percent. In short, more people are buying EVs — just not from Tesla."
A drop of 45%. Vs the same month in 2024.
In 2025 they were not selling the Model Y In 2024 they were selling the Model Y In 2024 the Model Y was the best selling car in the world
My point is simple - this news agenda is deliberately misleading.
You are also being a bit misleading; there was (and is) plenty of "legacy" Tesla Model Y stock available for sale, often at very good prices.
So it is not the case that Model Y sales dropped to zero in May due to the existence of the new Model Y.
I made a video where there were literally 11 cars left in UK inventory. So I do speak with facts in mind.
I found these in 30 seconds on Tesla's UK website. All legacy model Ys. All available new for delivery now.
And these are hardly the only legacy Model Y's on there. They're just first ones on the first few pages.
And as it's currently the end of June, so I think we can reasonably conclude they sold some last month.
Why are you posting links - I have eyes. The handful of launch edition cars shipped early May with delivery of the cars people actually bought not coming until the last week of the month. Mass delivery this month.
Again, sales of a car in vast quantities last year (best selling car in the world) vs "I've found 6 cars in inventory, thats comparable isn't it"
Proof will be in the pudding, watch the June numbers...
Proof will be the July / August sales if 6 months of pent up demand is being delivered in June
Sure! It will be interesting to see if the previous March / June / September / December spikes are smoothed out.
Point is that when you are lapping full sales vs a trickle, is disingenuous to claim that it is proof of anything. Which is why we need to use a like for like comparison.
Is it worth politicians tweeting these inane points if they can be so brutally taken down by replies? It's surely counter-productive, the publicity from the first tweet is not worth the angry and merciless responses
Is it a takedown? The guy's X handle would suggest he just might be a ****!
I've no idea who he is, I haven't even looked. Who cares? It just looks really really bad for Starmer
You get his cones hotline-esque tweet (actually about wifi for trains, which is not a terrible idea) but as you have clicked on it you see the first reply. And it is that. And it now has 100,000s of views
This is my point. More political damage is incurred than benefit gained. They should probably stop Starmer tweeting entirely
I think it a good idea.
Just because you PB Tories don't use public transport on account of you all being carried around by WiFi equipped sedan chair.
Sudden thought. Sex and food are the two primal pleasures - urgent, profound, overwhelming - they must be done. Yet in retrospect they dim quickly: I can only recall a few meals, or sexual encounters
Yet a much more peripheral pleasure - travel - easily and regularly makes memories for life. Why?
Is it worth politicians tweeting these inane points if they can be so brutally taken down by replies? It's surely counter-productive, the publicity from the first tweet is not worth the angry and merciless responses
Is it a takedown? The guy's X handle would suggest he just might be a ****!
I've no idea who he is, I haven't even looked. Who cares? It just looks really really bad for Starmer
You get his cones hotline-esque tweet (actually about wifi for trains, which is not a terrible idea) but as you have clicked on it you see the first reply. And it is that. And it now has 100,000s of views
This is my point. More political damage is incurred than benefit gained. They should probably stop Starmer tweeting entirely
I think it a good idea.
Just because you PB Tories don't use public transport on account of you all being carried around by WiFi equipped sedan chair.
Er, I say in my comment it is not a terrible idea. I was on a GWR train from Cornwall yesterday and the infrequent signal and wifi was quite annoying. It's an easy win to increase productivity. My point was more about how badly MOST politicians use social media
Jenrick and Farage feel like the the only UK pols that have mastered it
I thought at the time it was a mistake to drop the age at which people could stand for election from 21 to 18.
"Council boss quits, leaving 18-year-old in charge
Reform UK councillor Rob Howard released a short statement in which he said he had made the decision with "much regret". George Finch, 18, will lead Warwickshire County Council"
"On the New Reformer website, he said his politics could be summed up as "Brexit, sovereignty and a strong and united family unit"."
Excellent. The council has a £3m deficit, how do we fill it? "Brexit, sovereignty and a strong and united family unit" A crisis in education, with not enough teachers available to keep Southam primary open. ""Brexit, sovereignty and a strong and united family unit"
Sudden thought. Sex and food are the two primal pleasures - urgent, profound, overwhelming - they must be done. Yet in retrospect they dim quickly: I can only recall a few meals, or sexual encounters
Yet a much more peripheral pleasure - travel - easily and regularly makes memories for life. Why?
On the positive side, at least you remember some of your sexual encounters.
The Elon Musk effect continues as Europe’s Tesla sales drop for fifth month in a row
Tesla's sales in Europe have plummeted for the fifth consecutive month, with new figures revealing a significant 28 per cent drop in May.
So? What will be the story in June when they top the sales chart again?
That Elon Musk has shut up about politics? That's the problem, not the cars.
No, the problem is maths. They are lapping 2025 figures vs 2024 figures. 2024 includes sales of the best selling car globally in 2024. Vs no sales in 2025. Deliveries only started properly in June.
The narrative is "nobody wants to buy a Tesla". Which is about to get demolished by like for like sales numbers in June.
What does "They are lapping 2025 figures vs 2024 figures" mean?
"Tesla’s UK car sales drop and took a major hit in May 2025, with a drop of over 45 percent compared to the same month last year. According to early data from various sources online suggest, Tesla registered only 1,758 cars, down sharply from 3,244 in May 2024. This decline happened even as the UK’s overall new car market grew by 4.3 percent year-on-year, with battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales jumping by 28 percent. In short, more people are buying EVs — just not from Tesla."
A drop of 45%. Vs the same month in 2024.
In 2025 they were not selling the Model Y In 2024 they were selling the Model Y In 2024 the Model Y was the best selling car in the world
My point is simple - this news agenda is deliberately misleading.
You are also being a bit misleading; there was (and is) plenty of "legacy" Tesla Model Y stock available for sale, often at very good prices.
So it is not the case that Model Y sales dropped to zero in May due to the existence of the new Model Y.
I made a video where there were literally 11 cars left in UK inventory. So I do speak with facts in mind.
I found these in 30 seconds on Tesla's UK website. All legacy model Ys. All available new for delivery now.
And these are hardly the only legacy Model Y's on there. They're just first ones on the first few pages.
And as it's currently the end of June, so I think we can reasonably conclude they sold some last month.
Why are you posting links - I have eyes. The handful of launch edition cars shipped early May with delivery of the cars people actually bought not coming until the last week of the month. Mass delivery this month.
Again, sales of a car in vast quantities last year (best selling car in the world) vs "I've found 6 cars in inventory, thats comparable isn't it"
Proof will be in the pudding, watch the June numbers...
My links are links to 12 Legacy Tesla Model Ys that are currently for sale in the new in the UK. You posted saying you'd done a video about how there were only 11 Model Ys in stock in the UK.
And, by the way, I'm sure there are many more available for sale, even though it's now the end of June.
I'm just calling out your claim as Tesla wasn't selling legacy Model Ys in May as not entirely accurate.
I thought at the time it was a mistake to drop the age at which people could stand for election from 21 to 18.
"Council boss quits, leaving 18-year-old in charge
Reform UK councillor Rob Howard released a short statement in which he said he had made the decision with "much regret". George Finch, 18, will lead Warwickshire County Council"
"On the New Reformer website, he said his politics could be summed up as "Brexit, sovereignty and a strong and united family unit"."
Excellent. The council has a £3m deficit, how do we fill it? "Brexit, sovereignty and a strong and united family unit" A crisis in education, with not enough teachers available to keep Southam primary open. ""Brexit, sovereignty and a strong and united family unit"
Isn't that Goodwin's mob? Wasn't there a recent increase for Lab and a decline for Reform followed by a reversal last week. They seem all over the shop.
I've just been invited to Styria. Has anyone been to Styria?
Austrian or Slovene?
Both pretty pleasant. Slovene Ptuj especially so. Austrian Graz is also a very pleasant city. Good wine, local food can be excellent- a bit too pumpkin for my taste. More sinister castles than you can shake a stick at.
Almost half of the people currently in ICE custody have neither been convicted of nor charged with any crime. Only 6% of those detained undocumented immigrants have been convicted of homicide.
Is it worth politicians tweeting these inane points if they can be so brutally taken down by replies? It's surely counter-productive, the publicity from the first tweet is not worth the angry and merciless responses
Is it a takedown? The guy's X handle would suggest he just might be a ****!
Comments
I’m travelling on the Thalys and I have an inkling where he may have drawn his inspiration from.
https://unherd.com/newsroom/kemi-badenochs-danish-style-integration-plan-wont-work/
Also the old favourites such as Fahrenheit 451 have gone.
Does it mention pussy? But they have also banned "The Complete Book of Dogs". Heaven knows what the nutters would make of a cat pencil sharpener - that would presumably be gay and foment bestiality.
The Secretary of the Writers' Union
Had leaflets distributed on the Stalinallee
Which stated that the people
Had squandered the confidence of the government
And could only win it back
By redoubled work. Would it not in that case
Be simpler for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?
In worst case world every tory is going to be campaigning in seats like this to stay 'on the board'
Re Windsor:2023 Council election results: Con 7 (-16), LD 22 (+13) Ind 12 and only 7K behind with a 10k Labour vote to squeeze. And a very well organised LD party locally. Yet you put it in the Tories top 12 safest seats. Top 12 safest?????
Everyone missed my Hobbesian reference.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kristrún_Frostadóttir
And whereas the Welfare Reform Bill is a fiasco entirely of the Labour Government's own authorship, Farage can merely question Badenoch on why such a "Denmark" policy was not enacted during the era of the Conservative Boriswave.
I am not sure immigration is the Tory winner, Kemi thinks it is.
Windsor - 18th safest Tory seat on swing required from their dreadful 2024 result. The 2023 locals are old news.
This '10,000 votes to squeeze' thing - not any more as Labour are down by a third from 2024 and i dont buy into this idea that voters are queueing up to vote tactically for the Lib Dems when there is zero GTTO imperative. They simply arent that relevant now Reform are in town. (Neither the LDs nor the Tories as a target)
Much more likely the LDs get squeezed into an election as the fourth party. Especially if Davey repeats his fool on a hobby horse campaign tactic
Cones hotline
But seriously...
I suspect that there wasn't much tactical voting in Windsor last time, because there wasn't seen to be much point. If the yellow peril can persuade other lefties that they, and only they, can win, they're home and vigorously drying themselves off.
The hardest part will be that persuasion, but that YouGov generates the bar chart they need. And whilst Windsor doesn't have a cathedral, it has a royal peculiar, which probably has the same electoral effect.
However your firewall argument, which I agree with, actually potentially backfires here. Take the seats that the LDs won in Surrey off the Tories. The Tory fight was pitiful, not a firewall. You have to have the resources to put up a firewall. And importantly the LDs weren't targeting Windsor last time. On the contrary, they were busy taking 2 neighbouring seats all of which had a dozen seats neighbouring them that the LDs were taking. Windsors LDs were in those seats. If there were an election now with current polling where do you think Windsors LDs will be?
This is all hypothetical, but on current figures Windsor could be in play. I'm not saying they will win it, but challenging your view that Windsor is one of the Tories 12 safest seats.
It ain't that.
Again, sales of a car in vast quantities last year (best selling car in the world) vs "I've found 6 cars in inventory, thats comparable isn't it"
Proof will be in the pudding, watch the June numbers...
"It's said that Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum are saving Test cricket. I disagree. These two heroes are saving civilisation. They're saving it from short-form cricket, short-form sport, short attention spans, instant gratification, TikTok, YouTube shorts, dopamine-optimised trivia, fast food that fills you up for ten seconds but leaves you unsatisfed, overly salinated and feeling slightly ill."
Can we have Matthew as prime minister please? 😊
And the fact im including Windsor amongst the safer seats (call it top 20 as there are a few others i could swap in at similar leveks of safety - Rishis seat for example or Tatton) shows how precarious it is for them!
My view for next time, oft expressed, is that the LDs would be wise mot to assume they are holding on to all those lent GTTO votes from 2024 or that the Tory voter strike in the blue wall will continue.
I think the LDs need at least 15% nationally to possibly stand still in seats (assuming the Tories manage ca 20-21%)
"What about when you're on a train and get sexually assaulted by an immigrant?"
https://x.com/IfindRetards/status/1938199772151882206
104k likes
Is it worth politicians tweeting these inane points if they can be so brutally taken down by replies? It's surely counter-productive, the publicity from the first tweet is not worth the angry and merciless responses
You get his cones hotline-esque tweet (actually about wifi for trains, which is not a terrible idea) but as you have clicked on it you see the first reply. And it is that. And it now has 100,000s of views
This is my point. More political damage is incurred than benefit gained. They should probably stop Starmer tweeting entirely
Point is that when you are lapping full sales vs a trickle, is disingenuous to claim that it is proof of anything. Which is why we need to use a like for like comparison.
Just because you PB Tories don't use public transport on account of you all being carried around by WiFi equipped sedan chair.
Yet a much more peripheral pleasure - travel - easily and regularly makes memories for life. Why?
Jenrick and Farage feel like the the only UK pols that have mastered it
Westminster Voting Intention:
RFM: 30% (-1)
LAB: 22% (-1)
CON: 18% (+2)
LDM: 13% (+1)
GRN: 11% (=)
Via @FindoutnowUK, 25 Jun.
Changes w/ 18 Jun.
@FindoutnowUK
🟦 Reform UK: 30% (-1)
🔴 Labour: 22% (-1)
🔵 Conservatives: 18% (+2)
🟠 Lib Dems: 13% (+1)
🟢 Greens: 11% (-)
Changes from 18th June
[Find Out Now, 25th June, N=2,605]"
https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1938235494820655542
Someone disagrees.
Your partners, not so much.
NEW THREAD
And, by the way, I'm sure there are many more available for sale, even though it's now the end of June.
I'm just calling out your claim as Tesla wasn't selling legacy Model Ys in May as not entirely accurate.
Both pretty pleasant. Slovene Ptuj especially so. Austrian Graz is also a very pleasant city.
Good wine, local food can be excellent- a bit too pumpkin for my taste.
More sinister castles than you can shake a stick at.
https://x.com/yamiche/status/1937830555069944091
Almost half of the people currently in ICE custody have neither been convicted of nor charged with any crime. Only 6% of those detained undocumented immigrants have been convicted of homicide.