MRP tidbit, safest Tory seat in the country..... Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
This is one of my political theories - the most Conservative parts of the UK can be found in rural parts of Scotland. Spend a day in Selkirk during the Riding to find out.
The government is in serious trouble with this. I don’t think it can be overstated. There is no good outcome for them now. They could
1. Pull the bill, but then the markets get jitters and Reeves has to find £5bn from somewhere.
2. Plough ahead - but risk losing the vote, prompting cabinet resignations, putting Starmer’s leadership in jeopardy, and having all the negative outcomes of 1.
3. Try to offer some fudge (which seems the most likely) which might just reduce enough of the heat to squeeze it through. Then they find themselves in hock to backbenchers, who will demand concessions from every policy. If it’s watered down enough, once again we get to at least some of the negative outcomes of 1.
It is absolutely, stunningly incompetent to have lost a parliamentary majority of this size after one year of government. These were supposed to be the grown ups. They are starting to look less effective than the Tories (and that is saying something).
MRP tidbit, safest Tory seat in the country..... Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
This is one of my political theories - the most Conservative parts of the UK can be found in rural parts of Scotland. Spend a day in Selkirk during the Riding to find out.
English Tories are either too wet or too MAGA.
Folliwed by Harrow East and Stockton West, the NE redout. Funniky enough i half jokingly predicted Berwickshire would be the safest seat last July. Its very McTory up there and Dumfriesshire next door was of course the sole holdout 2005 to 2017
It's a beautifully boring evening, the midsummer sun folds its cards, over the Primrose Hill frontier lands
I eat tuna steak with anchonvy, caper, lemon, sourdough breadcrumb; and I sip Albarino de Fefinanes; and the moments pass
VIBE
Yeah, I can see why they binned the first draft of Summertime by Jazzy Jeff and the Fresh Prince.
It's incredible. Found the recipe online
"Crusted Tuna Steak with Anchovy, Capers, Tomatoes & Herby Crumbs
(Serves 1 or 2 if you simply double amounts)
Ingredients:
1 thick tuna steak (180–200g, about 2–3cm thick)
1 anchovy fillet (oil-packed)
1 tbsp capers, rinsed and roughly chopped
75g cherry tomatoes, halved
1 small garlic clove, finely chopped
Zest of ½ lemon
3 tbsp fresh breadcrumbs
1 tbsp chopped parsley (or a mix of parsley & basil)
1½ tbsp olive oil (plus a little more for drizzling)
Salt & black pepper
Optional: pinch of chilli flakes or crushed fennel seeds
Method:
Preheat the oven to 200°C (390°F). Line a small baking dish or tray with foil or parchment.
Make the herby crumb crust:
In a small bowl, mash the anchovy into a paste.
Add garlic, lemon zest, chopped capers, breadcrumbs (or biscuit crumbs), herbs, a drizzle of olive oil, salt, pepper, and optional chilli/fennel.
Mix until it’s clumpy and damp but crumbly
Make the tomato bed:
Toss the halved cherry tomatoes in a little olive oil and salt.
Spread them on the tray in a rough little pillow where your tuna will sit.
Prepare the tuna:
Pat it dry, season lightly with salt and pepper, and place it on top of the tomatoes.
Press the breadcrumb mixture firmly onto the top of the tuna in a thick, luscious layer.
Roast in the oven for 8–10 minutes, depending on thickness and how pink you like it. Aim for just-blushed in the centre - not cooked to death. The crumb should be golden and just toasty at the edges
Rest for 1 minute, then spoon a few tomatoes and their juices over the top, scatter with a little more herb
Serve with cold Albarino de Fefinanes"
Sounds like one of those posh £10 meal deals at any supermarket.
lol. No. It does not taste like that
You could not buy this chilled as a ready meal. But it only takes 20 minutes to do. It tastes like a dish created by a properly talented gastropub chef, for a lush, light summer evening
The simple but primary flavours make it. Dill, tuna, capers, lemon, garlic, anchovy, hit of chili flakes....
One of my all time favourite meals is a regular made by my wife. Linguini or spaghetti with a 'sauce' made of albacore tuna, capers, basil and vast amounts of lemon juice. Incredibly simple and stunningly good.
Tuna spaghetti was a staple when our kids were young. Many variations; all delicious.
Yours sounds pretty good.
or as my wife called it Tuna slop.
Which she did even when she went to visit her best friend from uni whose mum did a rather fancy dish with fresh tuna as the main ingredient.
She's never lived it down to the extent it was mentioned at her best friend's mum funeral (was just about the only laugh as the rest of it was the recent hubby justifying his successful attempt to grab the 3 family homes)....
Ouch.
One of our favourite variations started with sautéing bits of bacon in the pan. Yum.
The government is in serious trouble with this. I don’t think it can be overstated. There is no good outcome for them now. They could
1. Pull the bill, but then the markets get jitters and Reeves has to find £5bn from somewhere.
2. Plough ahead - but risk losing the vote, prompting cabinet resignations, putting Starmer’s leadership in jeopardy, and having all the negative outcomes of 1.
3. Try to offer some fudge (which seems the most likely) which might just reduce enough of the heat to squeeze it through. Then they find themselves in hock to backbenchers, who will demand concessions from every policy. If it’s watered down enough, once again we get to at least some of the negative outcomes of 1.
It is absolutely, stunningly incompetent to have lost a parliamentary majority of this size after one year of government.
Especially on a policy that obviously needs to happen in some form.
And of a piece with their climbdowns on the winter fuel allowance and their abandonment of their pledge not to raise taxes.
The moment they face any serious opposition, they will always take the short-term, politically convenient solution over economic competence or prudence. While gaslighting us about being committed to economic growth, hard choices and working people.
The government is in serious trouble with this. I don’t think it can be overstated. There is no good outcome for them now. They could
1. Pull the bill, but then the markets get jitters and Reeves has to find £5bn from somewhere.
2. Plough ahead - but risk losing the vote, prompting cabinet resignations, putting Starmer’s leadership in jeopardy, and having all the negative outcomes of 1.
3. Try to offer some fudge (which seems the most likely) which might just reduce enough of the heat to squeeze it through. Then they find themselves in hock to backbenchers, who will demand concessions from every policy. If it’s watered down enough, once again we get to at least some of the negative outcomes of 1.
It is absolutely, stunningly incompetent to have lost a parliamentary majority of this size after one year of government. These were supposed to be the grown ups. They are starting to look less effective than the Tories (and that is saying something).
I always thought they were in more danger from the left. I just didn't think so soon... thought it would be Starmer getting cold feet on their most effective minister (Miliband) and stirring up the Monbiots.
It is difficult to think of reasons to support Labour. They are very lucky the Greens don't have a Sanders type figure leading them.
The government is in serious trouble with this. I don’t think it can be overstated. There is no good outcome for them now. They could
1. Pull the bill, but then the markets get jitters and Reeves has to find £5bn from somewhere.
2. Plough ahead - but risk losing the vote, prompting cabinet resignations, putting Starmer’s leadership in jeopardy, and having all the negative outcomes of 1.
3. Try to offer some fudge (which seems the most likely) which might just reduce enough of the heat to squeeze it through. Then they find themselves in hock to backbenchers, who will demand concessions from every policy. If it’s watered down enough, once again we get to at least some of the negative outcomes of 1.
It is absolutely, stunningly incompetent to have lost a parliamentary majority of this size after one year of government. These were supposed to be the grown ups. They are starting to look less effective than the Tories (and that is saying something).
Government 'sources' appear to share your analysis.
Sources said there was a considerable difference of opinion within government. “There is a camp for pulling it, a camp for concession and a small but insane camp for ploughing on,” one said, suggesting Reeves was in the latter camp.
It's a beautifully boring evening, the midsummer sun folds its cards, over the Primrose Hill frontier lands
I eat tuna steak with anchonvy, caper, lemon, sourdough breadcrumb; and I sip Albarino de Fefinanes; and the moments pass
VIBE
Yeah, I can see why they binned the first draft of Summertime by Jazzy Jeff and the Fresh Prince.
It's incredible. Found the recipe online
"Crusted Tuna Steak with Anchovy, Capers, Tomatoes & Herby Crumbs
(Serves 1 or 2 if you simply double amounts)
Ingredients:
1 thick tuna steak (180–200g, about 2–3cm thick)
1 anchovy fillet (oil-packed)
1 tbsp capers, rinsed and roughly chopped
75g cherry tomatoes, halved
1 small garlic clove, finely chopped
Zest of ½ lemon
3 tbsp fresh breadcrumbs
1 tbsp chopped parsley (or a mix of parsley & basil)
1½ tbsp olive oil (plus a little more for drizzling)
Salt & black pepper
Optional: pinch of chilli flakes or crushed fennel seeds
Method:
Preheat the oven to 200°C (390°F). Line a small baking dish or tray with foil or parchment.
Make the herby crumb crust:
In a small bowl, mash the anchovy into a paste.
Add garlic, lemon zest, chopped capers, breadcrumbs (or biscuit crumbs), herbs, a drizzle of olive oil, salt, pepper, and optional chilli/fennel.
Mix until it’s clumpy and damp but crumbly
Make the tomato bed:
Toss the halved cherry tomatoes in a little olive oil and salt.
Spread them on the tray in a rough little pillow where your tuna will sit.
Prepare the tuna:
Pat it dry, season lightly with salt and pepper, and place it on top of the tomatoes.
Press the breadcrumb mixture firmly onto the top of the tuna in a thick, luscious layer.
Roast in the oven for 8–10 minutes, depending on thickness and how pink you like it. Aim for just-blushed in the centre - not cooked to death. The crumb should be golden and just toasty at the edges
Rest for 1 minute, then spoon a few tomatoes and their juices over the top, scatter with a little more herb
Serve with cold Albarino de Fefinanes"
Sounds like one of those posh £10 meal deals at any supermarket.
lol. No. It does not taste like that
You could not buy this chilled as a ready meal. But it only takes 20 minutes to do. It tastes like a dish created by a properly talented gastropub chef, for a lush, light summer evening
The simple but primary flavours make it. Dill, tuna, capers, lemon, garlic, anchovy, hit of chili flakes....
One of my all time favourite meals is a regular made by my wife. Linguini or spaghetti with a 'sauce' made of albacore tuna, capers, basil and vast amounts of lemon juice. Incredibly simple and stunningly good.
Tuna spaghetti was a staple when our kids were young. Many variations; all delicious.
Yours sounds pretty good.
or as my wife called it Tuna slop.
Which she did even when she went to visit her best friend from uni whose mum did a rather fancy dish with fresh tuna as the main ingredient.
She's never lived it down to the extent it was mentioned at her best friend's mum funeral (was just about the only laugh as the rest of it was the recent hubby justifying his successful attempt to grab the 3 family homes)....
God how awful. The recent hubby, I mean.
Oh it was the most tackless thing I've ever seen and I'm hardly renowned as a tackful person - I joke that in previously lives I was Dutch and Danish..
The government is in serious trouble with this. I don’t think it can be overstated. There is no good outcome for them now. They could
1. Pull the bill, but then the markets get jitters and Reeves has to find £5bn from somewhere.
2. Plough ahead - but risk losing the vote, prompting cabinet resignations, putting Starmer’s leadership in jeopardy, and having all the negative outcomes of 1.
3. Try to offer some fudge (which seems the most likely) which might just reduce enough of the heat to squeeze it through. Then they find themselves in hock to backbenchers, who will demand concessions from every policy. If it’s watered down enough, once again we get to at least some of the negative outcomes of 1.
It is absolutely, stunningly incompetent to have lost a parliamentary majority of this size after one year of government. These were supposed to be the grown ups. They are starting to look less effective than the Tories (and that is saying something).
Government 'sources' appear to share your analysis.
Sources said there was a considerable difference of opinion within government. “There is a camp for pulling it, a camp for concession and a small but insane camp for ploughing on,” one said, suggesting Reeves was in the latter camp.
Not entirely surprising Reeves is in the “plough on” camp. She’s the one who is going to feel the most heat if it doesn’t get through.
It feels more and more like she’s going to be the sacrificial lamb who has to deliver the really bad news in the Autumn, probably in time for a demotion early in the new year or after the May elections.
The government is in serious trouble with this. I don’t think it can be overstated. There is no good outcome for them now. They could
1. Pull the bill, but then the markets get jitters and Reeves has to find £5bn from somewhere.
2. Plough ahead - but risk losing the vote, prompting cabinet resignations, putting Starmer’s leadership in jeopardy, and having all the negative outcomes of 1.
3. Try to offer some fudge (which seems the most likely) which might just reduce enough of the heat to squeeze it through. Then they find themselves in hock to backbenchers, who will demand concessions from every policy. If it’s watered down enough, once again we get to at least some of the negative outcomes of 1.
It is absolutely, stunningly incompetent to have lost a parliamentary majority of this size after one year of government. These were supposed to be the grown ups. They are starting to look less effective than the Tories (and that is saying something).
Government 'sources' appear to share your analysis.
Sources said there was a considerable difference of opinion within government. “There is a camp for pulling it, a camp for concession and a small but insane camp for ploughing on,” one said, suggesting Reeves was in the latter camp.
The government is in serious trouble with this. I don’t think it can be overstated. There is no good outcome for them now. They could
1. Pull the bill, but then the markets get jitters and Reeves has to find £5bn from somewhere.
2. Plough ahead - but risk losing the vote, prompting cabinet resignations, putting Starmer’s leadership in jeopardy, and having all the negative outcomes of 1.
3. Try to offer some fudge (which seems the most likely) which might just reduce enough of the heat to squeeze it through. Then they find themselves in hock to backbenchers, who will demand concessions from every policy. If it’s watered down enough, once again we get to at least some of the negative outcomes of 1.
It is absolutely, stunningly incompetent to have lost a parliamentary majority of this size after one year of government. These were supposed to be the grown ups. They are starting to look less effective than the Tories (and that is saying something).
2 - there is zero chance the rebels are going to lose, what's the downside of people voting against when they weren't going to get a ministerial job anyway.
But this is why I'm starting to regard Starmer and co as utterly incompetent - none of the stuff they needed to do was difficult and it's not like I've not pointed out my solutions to the problems earlier. Use WFA to reverse the employee NI cuts, that gives you cash.
Employment the employer NI changes next year to improve the NHs while really solving the extra defence spending...
Looking back the last vaguely competent government was Labour in 2008/9.
The government is in serious trouble with this. I don’t think it can be overstated. There is no good outcome for them now. They could
1. Pull the bill, but then the markets get jitters and Reeves has to find £5bn from somewhere.
2. Plough ahead - but risk losing the vote, prompting cabinet resignations, putting Starmer’s leadership in jeopardy, and having all the negative outcomes of 1.
3. Try to offer some fudge (which seems the most likely) which might just reduce enough of the heat to squeeze it through. Then they find themselves in hock to backbenchers, who will demand concessions from every policy. If it’s watered down enough, once again we get to at least some of the negative outcomes of 1.
It is absolutely, stunningly incompetent to have lost a parliamentary majority of this size after one year of government. These were supposed to be the grown ups. They are starting to look less effective than the Tories (and that is saying something).
I always thought they were in more danger from the left. I just didn't think so soon... thought it would be Starmer getting cold feet on their most effective minister (Miliband) and stirring up the Monbiots.
It is difficult to think of reasons to support Labour. They are very lucky the Greens don't have a Sanders type figure leading them.
If Corbyn was younger, slightly more competent and slightly less fixated on the politics of the Middle East, he’d be polling 10-15% or so leading a populist left party, IMHO.
If someone emerges in that sphere in the next couple of years, Labour are really f****d.
The government is in serious trouble with this. I don’t think it can be overstated. There is no good outcome for them now. They could
1. Pull the bill, but then the markets get jitters and Reeves has to find £5bn from somewhere.
2. Plough ahead - but risk losing the vote, prompting cabinet resignations, putting Starmer’s leadership in jeopardy, and having all the negative outcomes of 1.
3. Try to offer some fudge (which seems the most likely) which might just reduce enough of the heat to squeeze it through. Then they find themselves in hock to backbenchers, who will demand concessions from every policy. If it’s watered down enough, once again we get to at least some of the negative outcomes of 1.
It is absolutely, stunningly incompetent to have lost a parliamentary majority of this size after one year of government. These were supposed to be the grown ups. They are starting to look less effective than the Tories (and that is saying something).
I always thought they were in more danger from the left. I just didn't think so soon... thought it would be Starmer getting cold feet on their most effective minister (Miliband) and stirring up the Monbiots.
It is difficult to think of reasons to support Labour. They are very lucky the Greens don't have a Sanders type figure leading them.
If Corbyn was younger, slightly more competent and slightly less fixated on the politics of the Middle East, he’d be polling 10-15% or so leading a populist left party, IMHO.
If someone emerges in that sphere in the next couple of years, Labour are really f****d.
Its a good job John McDonald is also too old, he is Corbyn with brains and the ability to not always say out loud what he really thinks.
The government is in serious trouble with this. I don’t think it can be overstated. There is no good outcome for them now. They could
1. Pull the bill, but then the markets get jitters and Reeves has to find £5bn from somewhere.
2. Plough ahead - but risk losing the vote, prompting cabinet resignations, putting Starmer’s leadership in jeopardy, and having all the negative outcomes of 1.
3. Try to offer some fudge (which seems the most likely) which might just reduce enough of the heat to squeeze it through. Then they find themselves in hock to backbenchers, who will demand concessions from every policy. If it’s watered down enough, once again we get to at least some of the negative outcomes of 1.
It is absolutely, stunningly incompetent to have lost a parliamentary majority of this size after one year of government. These were supposed to be the grown ups. They are starting to look less effective than the Tories (and that is saying something).
2 - there is zero chance the rebels are going to lose, what's the downside of people voting against when they weren't going to get a ministerial job anyway.
But this is why I'm starting to regard Starmer and co as utterly incompetent - none of the stuff they needed to do was difficult and it's not like I've not pointed out my solutions to the problems earlier. Use WFA to reverse the employee NI cuts, that gives you cash.
Employment the employer NI changes next year to improve the NHs while really solving the extra defence spending...
Looking back the last vaguely competent government was Labour in 2008/9.
I think the 2010-2015 government was competent. You can disagree with some of their actions, but I think they had a purpose, knew what they were doing, and for a 2-party government were incredibly well-disciplined over a full 5 year term. Arguably what came afterwards was the error by consolidating some of the economic policies that, if the coalition had continued, probably would have been slowly abandoned.
The England and Wales Cricket Board has joined forces with the Board of Control for Cricket in India to try to thwart a new global Twenty20 league backed by Saudi Arabia.
Under plans that emerged in Australia this year, Saudi’s SRJ Sports Investments has pledged to inject £400m to set up the new league, which would have eight teams playing four tournaments in different locations each year in a set-up likened to tennis’s grand slams.
The Rest is Entertainment yesterday included a section on DAZN buying broadcast rights to Saudi sportsfests and selling them on cheaply to terrestrial broadcasters. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVCt5SRXFC4&t=2539s
Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot EXC - No10 is set to offer concessions to Labour rebels on welfare. Talks are ongoing but changes could be made to the Pip reforms.
A number of cabinet ministers are now said to believe the bill has no chance of passing in its current form.
Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot EXC - No10 is set to offer concessions to Labour rebels on welfare. Talks are ongoing but changes could be made to the Pip reforms.
A number of cabinet ministers are now said to believe the bill has no chance of passing in its current form.
They are going to end up like WFA, eating up loads of political capital and saving nothing. And then the sums won't add up, followed by more tax rises and more borrowing.
Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot EXC - No10 is set to offer concessions to Labour rebels on welfare. Talks are ongoing but changes could be made to the Pip reforms.
A number of cabinet ministers are now said to believe the bill has no chance of passing in its current form.
May not be enough. A lot of them want to see the impact asssesments and a proper consultation with disabled people, and any concessions lose 121 potential Tory votes
The government is in serious trouble with this. I don’t think it can be overstated. There is no good outcome for them now. They could
1. Pull the bill, but then the markets get jitters and Reeves has to find £5bn from somewhere.
2. Plough ahead - but risk losing the vote, prompting cabinet resignations, putting Starmer’s leadership in jeopardy, and having all the negative outcomes of 1.
3. Try to offer some fudge (which seems the most likely) which might just reduce enough of the heat to squeeze it through. Then they find themselves in hock to backbenchers, who will demand concessions from every policy. If it’s watered down enough, once again we get to at least some of the negative outcomes of 1.
It is absolutely, stunningly incompetent to have lost a parliamentary majority of this size after one year of government. These were supposed to be the grown ups. They are starting to look less effective than the Tories (and that is saying something).
2 - there is zero chance the rebels are going to lose, what's the downside of people voting against when they weren't going to get a ministerial job anyway.
But this is why I'm starting to regard Starmer and co as utterly incompetent - none of the stuff they needed to do was difficult and it's not like I've not pointed out my solutions to the problems earlier. Use WFA to reverse the employee NI cuts, that gives you cash.
Employment the employer NI changes next year to improve the NHs while really solving the extra defence spending...
Looking back the last vaguely competent government was Labour in 2008/9.
I think the 2010-2015 government was competent. You can disagree with some of their actions, but I think they had a purpose, knew what they were doing, and for a 2-party government were incredibly well-disciplined over a full 5 year term. Arguably what came afterwards was the error by consolidating some of the economic policies that, if the coalition had continued, probably would have been slowly abandoned.
They could have borrowed for peanuts. If Osborne had pushed through HS2, Northern PowerRail and sorted out Crossrail so Crossrail 2 was now in progress I would have a very different opinion. I would also add their focus of austerity rather than efficiency improvements means we now have far worse problems than would otherwise be the case in many areas.
You then have Osbourne accidentally winning the 2015 election to the point the Tories had a majority to blame for Brexit so I really wouldn't rate them as competent, Lib Dems maybe but Cameron and Osborne definitely not.
The England and Wales Cricket Board has joined forces with the Board of Control for Cricket in India to try to thwart a new global Twenty20 league backed by Saudi Arabia.
Under plans that emerged in Australia this year, Saudi’s SRJ Sports Investments has pledged to inject £400m to set up the new league, which would have eight teams playing four tournaments in different locations each year in a set-up likened to tennis’s grand slams.
The Rest is Entertainment yesterday included a section on DAZN buying broadcast rights to Saudi sportsfests and selling them on cheaply to terrestrial broadcasters. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVCt5SRXFC4&t=2539s
DAZN is a very strange operation.
It's very important to understand this:
Saudi Arabia invested $1bn in DAZN DAZN spent $1bn on the rights to the FIFA Club World Cup Saudi Arabia secured the 2034 World Cup
Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot EXC - No10 is set to offer concessions to Labour rebels on welfare. Talks are ongoing but changes could be made to the Pip reforms.
A number of cabinet ministers are now said to believe the bill has no chance of passing in its current form.
May not be enough. A lot of them want to see the impact asssesments and a proper consultation with disabled people, and any concessions lose 121 potential Tory votes
It's a neither nor option. There are 122+ labour MPs who object to the bill -many of those aren't going to accept any watered down version that doesn't leave things for disabled people where they currently are.
And the Tory votes don't exist unless the bill remains as it is.
The England and Wales Cricket Board has joined forces with the Board of Control for Cricket in India to try to thwart a new global Twenty20 league backed by Saudi Arabia.
Under plans that emerged in Australia this year, Saudi’s SRJ Sports Investments has pledged to inject £400m to set up the new league, which would have eight teams playing four tournaments in different locations each year in a set-up likened to tennis’s grand slams.
The Rest is Entertainment yesterday included a section on DAZN buying broadcast rights to Saudi sportsfests and selling them on cheaply to terrestrial broadcasters. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVCt5SRXFC4&t=2539s
DAZN is a very strange operation.
It's very important to understand this:
Saudi Arabia invested $1bn in DAZN DAZN spent $1bn on the rights to the FIFA Club World Cup Saudi Arabia secured the 2034 World Cup
Now, about all the boxing going to Saudi...who has all the boxing fights these days....
Wow. Cost of living and NHS nearly twice as important to Labour --> Reform switchers as immigration.
Has anyone told them about Nigel's plans for a contributory insurance based NHS? Moving on...
We will have no real idea what Reform's manifesto will say about the NHS until about 2029. My guess is that on the major planks of the social welfare state (ie every one of the expensive bits of discretionary state expenditure) it will play it straight down the centre and promise no significant front line cuts, and no change to how things are funded.
Why not a contributory insurance based NHS? We might not have millions on an operating waiting list..and be just like every other modern European nation..🧐
If we were starting from scratch we might not invent the NHS exactly as it is, but it doesn't follow from this that it ought to be radically changed. Re-engineering something as complex and central to our society as healthcare is a massive undertaking fraught with risk and unintended consequences. It would take time (longer than electoral time), serious money, and great skill, integrity, diligence. Not the way to go imo. Better to keep the core model and seek continual incremental improvement in outcomes and value-for-money.
No Big Bang project has ever worked.
The founding of the NHS was, in many ways, incremental on what went before.
When the Great NHS IT Contract comedy was at its height, I was an attending a project management methodology course.
The chap giving the course, a well respected Canadian expert, asked me at lunch if I knew why the projects were being done like this. Since nothing this scale had ever worked using waterfall methods.
The biggest problem is the refusal, on many areas, to contemplate incremental change. And try experimental change in limited areas.
See the repeated rejection of trials of decreasing class sizes in state schools.
What about Los Alamos ?
Ha!
Los Alamos was actual incremental on 50 years of radio-chemistry.
It was a pretty damn big increment.
Pre war, some French guys were working on playing with cubes of uranium metal with heavy water as a moderator. They got some measurements that pointed to how much you’d need to get to a chain reaction.
Isotopic separation was proven long before the war. Cyclotrons and diffusion
The Manhattan project was mostly about scaling up - metric tons of uranium and graphite for a reactor, instead of playing with a pound or two.
For isotope separation, they melted down all the silver in the US Treasury (15 thousand tons) to build cyclotrons. But the basic design was there before the war. Similarly, the various gas separation methods were scaling up lab equipment to square miles.
The chemistry to separate plutonium from reactor fuel was simple chemistry, but done on a vast scale - and completely by remote methods.
They were dealt a shit hand. We all know that. We all accept that. But it’s like, instead of playing their bad hand they’ve come to the poker party with no idea what poker is, or how it works, and when the poker match starts and they realise they are losing badly, instead of folding their cards and taking the loss they run around hurling urine at everyone while singing a Christmas carol in Russian
The England and Wales Cricket Board has joined forces with the Board of Control for Cricket in India to try to thwart a new global Twenty20 league backed by Saudi Arabia.
Under plans that emerged in Australia this year, Saudi’s SRJ Sports Investments has pledged to inject £400m to set up the new league, which would have eight teams playing four tournaments in different locations each year in a set-up likened to tennis’s grand slams.
The Rest is Entertainment yesterday included a section on DAZN buying broadcast rights to Saudi sportsfests and selling them on cheaply to terrestrial broadcasters. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVCt5SRXFC4&t=2539s
DAZN is a very strange operation.
It's very important to understand this:
Saudi Arabia invested $1bn in DAZN DAZN spent $1bn on the rights to the FIFA Club World Cup Saudi Arabia secured the 2034 World Cup
Steps goes DAZN gives $1bn for world cup Saudi invest $1bn for 5% stake in DAZN
Now who isn't going to give 5% of a potentially worthless company away in an attempt to become the go to Global sports company especially whwn Saudi also controls some of the sports you may need.
As the podcast referenced above points out - it's hard to see a loser as literally everyone gains from the original plan even before Saudi secured the World Cup...
Starmer would not, imo, be facing quite such a rebellion had he held fast over WFA
Hes the sort of guy who stands with a a hi viz and clipboard at a fete whilst people park where they like. Feeble PM
I said years ago, he is Gordon Brittas. Jimmy Carr's assessment is similar, Asda manager in the West Midlands.
I think Jimmy Carr is being generous - Replenishment Night manager at an Asda in the West Midlands would be a better target, something where a bit of process is enough to succeed - and it's obvious to everyone that he isn't going any higher.
The government is in serious trouble with this. I don’t think it can be overstated. There is no good outcome for them now. They could
1. Pull the bill, but then the markets get jitters and Reeves has to find £5bn from somewhere.
2. Plough ahead - but risk losing the vote, prompting cabinet resignations, putting Starmer’s leadership in jeopardy, and having all the negative outcomes of 1.
3. Try to offer some fudge (which seems the most likely) which might just reduce enough of the heat to squeeze it through. Then they find themselves in hock to backbenchers, who will demand concessions from every policy. If it’s watered down enough, once again we get to at least some of the negative outcomes of 1.
It is absolutely, stunningly incompetent to have lost a parliamentary majority of this size after one year of government. These were supposed to be the grown ups. They are starting to look less effective than the Tories (and that is saying something).
2 - there is zero chance the rebels are going to lose, what's the downside of people voting against when they weren't going to get a ministerial job anyway.
But this is why I'm starting to regard Starmer and co as utterly incompetent - none of the stuff they needed to do was difficult and it's not like I've not pointed out my solutions to the problems earlier. Use WFA to reverse the employee NI cuts, that gives you cash.
Employment the employer NI changes next year to improve the NHs while really solving the extra defence spending...
Looking back the last vaguely competent government was Labour in 2008/9.
I think the 2010-2015 government was competent. You can disagree with some of their actions, but I think they had a purpose, knew what they were doing, and for a 2-party government were incredibly well-disciplined over a full 5 year term. Arguably what came afterwards was the error by consolidating some of the economic policies that, if the coalition had continued, probably would have been slowly abandoned.
They could have borrowed for peanuts. If Osborne had pushed through HS2, Northern PowerRail and sorted out Crossrail so Crossrail 2 was now in progress I would have a very different opinion. I would also add their focus of austerity rather than efficiency improvements means we now have far worse problems than would otherwise be the case in many areas.
You then have Osbourne accidentally winning the 2015 election to the point the Tories had a majority to blame for Brexit so I really wouldn't rate them as competent, Lib Dems maybe but Cameron and Osborne definitely not.
The key thing about 2010-15 (and I liked them at the time, and we could do a lot worse now) was that it sowed the seeds for a lot of the problems since. It was stable, smooth and competent from the off, sure. But does it profit a nation if the government does mistaken things smoothly and competently?
Meanwhile, there is a lot to be depressed about with respect to the current government. But the key bits of their agenda (planning, energy, relative realism about the costs of things) are the right things to target.
They were dealt a shit hand. We all know that. We all accept that. But it’s like, instead of playing their bad hand they’ve come to the poker party with no idea what poker is, or how it works, and when the poker match starts and they realise they are losing badly, instead of folding their cards and taking the loss they run around hurling urine at everyone while singing a Christmas carol in Russian
And then they try to sodomise a pot plant
Camden parties are obviously a bit different to the little get togethers we have in the swamps of midlands.
We now know that Labour are constitutionally incapable of addressing our problems. We now have proof, multiple times over. They cannot solve ANYTHING - their basic stupid instincts are always “no cuts” and “immigrants are great let’s have more” and “fuck Britain it’s evil”. And that’s it
They won’t achieve anything. So what is the point of them? There is none. This is the fag end of the fag end of the fag end of a progressive liberal ethos which was born post WW2 and has now driven itself into the dust
Edit: £170 billion of that is pensioners. Triple lock. Time to take the boomers wallets away finally?
Nice to hear some realism from Zia Yusuf.
Let's see some detail.
Suspect that like all the other parties they wont touch the boomer pensioners.
Time for Rachel to be brave in the 2025 Budget!
From April 2026 the Triple Lock should be abolished and the state pension should be uplifted by CPI only.
DC pension funds have no built in inflation protection. Neither do annuities unless you accept a much lower initial amount. Private DB schemes are generally limited to CPI increase often with a low cap.
BREAKING NEWS...I was shocked to hear that the State of Israel, which has just had one of its Greatest Moments in History, and is strongly led by Bibi Netanyahu, is continuing its ridiculous Witch Hunt against their Great War Time Prime Minister! Bibi and I just went through HELL together, fighting a very tough and brilliant longtime enemy of Israel, Iran, and Bibi could not have been better, sharper, or stronger in his LOVE for the incredible Holy Land. Anybody else would have suffered losses, embarrassment, and chaos! Bibi Netanyahu was a WARRIOR, like perhaps no other Warrior in the History of Israel, and the result was something that nobody thought was possible, a complete elimination of potentially one of the biggest and most powerful Nuclear Weapons anywhere in the World, and it was going to happen, SOON! We were fighting, literally, for the Survival of Israel, and there is nobody in Israel's History that fought harder or more competently than Bibi Netanyahu. Despite all of this, I just learned that Bibi has been summoned to Court on Monday for the continuation of this long running, (He has been going through this "Horror Show" since May of 2020 – Unheard of! This is the first time a sitting Israeli Prime Minister has ever been on trial.), politically motivated case, "concerning cigars, a Bugs Bunny doll, and numerous other unfair charges" in order to do him great harm. Such a WITCH HUNT, for a man who has given so much, is unthinkable to me. He deserves much better than this, and so does the State of Israel. Bibi Netanyahu's trial should be CANCELLED, IMMEDIATELY, or a Pardon given to a Great Hero, who has done so much for the State. Perhaps there is no one that I know who could have worked in better harmony with the President of the United States, ME, than Bibi Netanyahu. It was the United States of America that saved Israel, and now it is going to be the United States of America that saves Bibi Netanyahu. THIS TRAVESTY OF "JUSTICE" CAN NOT BE ALLOWED!
ICE arrest dozens of construction workers building a school in Alabama.
We wouldn't send anyone to El Salvador without a trial, but we'd arrest and deport most of the people America is. Remember we'll send back Jamaican drug dealers who came to the UK age three and who are entitled to citizenship but forgot to apply.
I suppose America has been so used to immigration laws not being enforced that they are now surprised when they are. Which probably makes it wrong, because governments should be consistent.
The government is in serious trouble with this. I don’t think it can be overstated. There is no good outcome for them now. They could
1. Pull the bill, but then the markets get jitters and Reeves has to find £5bn from somewhere.
2. Plough ahead - but risk losing the vote, prompting cabinet resignations, putting Starmer’s leadership in jeopardy, and having all the negative outcomes of 1.
3. Try to offer some fudge (which seems the most likely) which might just reduce enough of the heat to squeeze it through. Then they find themselves in hock to backbenchers, who will demand concessions from every policy. If it’s watered down enough, once again we get to at least some of the negative outcomes of 1.
It is absolutely, stunningly incompetent to have lost a parliamentary majority of this size after one year of government. These were supposed to be the grown ups. They are starting to look less effective than the Tories (and that is saying something).
2 - there is zero chance the rebels are going to lose, what's the downside of people voting against when they weren't going to get a ministerial job anyway.
But this is why I'm starting to regard Starmer and co as utterly incompetent - none of the stuff they needed to do was difficult and it's not like I've not pointed out my solutions to the problems earlier. Use WFA to reverse the employee NI cuts, that gives you cash.
Employment the employer NI changes next year to improve the NHs while really solving the extra defence spending...
Looking back the last vaguely competent government was Labour in 2008/9.
I think the 2010-2015 government was competent. You can disagree with some of their actions, but I think they had a purpose, knew what they were doing, and for a 2-party government were incredibly well-disciplined over a full 5 year term. Arguably what came afterwards was the error by consolidating some of the economic policies that, if the coalition had continued, probably would have been slowly abandoned.
They could have borrowed for peanuts. If Osborne had pushed through HS2, Northern PowerRail and sorted out Crossrail so Crossrail 2 was now in progress I would have a very different opinion. I would also add their focus of austerity rather than efficiency improvements means we now have far worse problems than would otherwise be the case in many areas.
You then have Osbourne accidentally winning the 2015 election to the point the Tories had a majority to blame for Brexit so I really wouldn't rate them as competent, Lib Dems maybe but Cameron and Osborne definitely not.
The key thing about 2010-15 (and I liked them at the time, and we could do a lot worse now) was that it sowed the seeds for a lot of the problems since. It was stable, smooth and competent from the off, sure. But does it profit a nation if the government does mistaken things smoothly and competently?
Meanwhile, there is a lot to be depressed about with respect to the current government. But the key bits of their agenda (planning, energy, relative realism about the costs of things) are the right things to target.
But they also need to fix the weeds sown in 2010-17 as the issues planted but hidden then are coming home to roost.
For instance I discovered yesterday there are Employment tribunals currently being scheduled for October 2028, that's going to be 2029 before September.
And that's before the new Employment Right act significantly increases the number of potential cases. And the Government has been clear that there isn't any more money....
Edit to add - the Government also accidentally announced yesterday another employment right change that was only supposed to hit consultation in October. We had great fun teasing the DWP policy officer involved...
They were dealt a shit hand. We all know that. We all accept that. But it’s like, instead of playing their bad hand they’ve come to the poker party with no idea what poker is, or how it works, and when the poker match starts and they realise they are losing badly, instead of folding their cards and taking the loss they run around hurling urine at everyone while singing a Christmas carol in Russian
And then they try to sodomise a pot plant
Rachel Reeves raises her eyes from the cards, coldly looks the opposition in the eye, and says "Knight to E4."
Edit: £170 billion of that is pensioners. Triple lock. Time to take the boomers wallets away finally?
Nice to hear some realism from Zia Yusuf.
Let's see some detail.
Suspect that like all the other parties they wont touch the boomer pensioners.
Two ways to reduce welfare: reduce size of payments, and reduce who is eligible. Long term I suspect the second is what has to happen.
In theory you would reduce the payments but the payments we give people are already so low relative to the rest of Europe that isn't an option...
Edit reality is if you are able to work you should have to work a virtually full week (25-30 hours minimum) to receive universal credit.
if that means we need to provide more childcare to facilitate that for single parents means we provide more childcare but reality is we shouldn't be subsidising people who are capable of working which is why the disability cuts proposed are so cruel...
We now know that Labour are constitutionally incapable of addressing our problems. We now have proof, multiple times over. They cannot solve ANYTHING - their basic stupid instincts are always “no cuts” and “immigrants are great let’s have more” and “fuck Britain it’s evil”. And that’s it
They won’t achieve anything. So what is the point of them? There is none. This is the fag end of the fag end of the fag end of a progressive liberal ethos which was born post WW2 and has now driven itself into the dust
What replaces it?
"what rough beast, its hour come round at last, Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?"
We now know that Labour are constitutionally incapable of addressing our problems. We now have proof, multiple times over. They cannot solve ANYTHING - their basic stupid instincts are always “no cuts” and “immigrants are great let’s have more” and “fuck Britain it’s evil”. And that’s it
They won’t achieve anything. So what is the point of them? There is none. This is the fag end of the fag end of the fag end of a progressive liberal ethos which was born post WW2 and has now driven itself into the dust
What replaces it?
"what rough beast, its hour come round at last, Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?"
Edit: £170 billion of that is pensioners. Triple lock. Time to take the boomers wallets away finally?
Nice to hear some realism from Zia Yusuf.
Let's see some detail.
Suspect that like all the other parties they wont touch the boomer pensioners.
Two ways to reduce welfare: reduce size of payments, and reduce who is eligible. Long term I suspect the second is what has to happen.
In theory you would reduce the payments but the payments we give people are already so low relative to the rest of Europe that isn't an option...
Edit reality is if you are able to work you should have to work a virtually full week (25-30 hours minimum) to receive universal credit.
if that means we need to provide more childcare to facilitate that for single parents means we provide more childcare but reality is we shouldn't be subsidising people who are capable of working which is why the disability cuts proposed are so cruel...
I know I keep banging on about this but for many people their PIP grant allows them to continue working. If you cut the eligibility too much then a lot of people who could have worked with a bit of help will become more economically inactive not less. If I were trying to come up with some reforms I would probably try to transfer those people into an expanded version of the Access to Work Grant to make the dividing line clearer.
Edit: £170 billion of that is pensioners. Triple lock. Time to take the boomers wallets away finally?
Nice to hear some realism from Zia Yusuf.
Let's see some detail.
Suspect that like all the other parties they wont touch the boomer pensioners.
Two ways to reduce welfare: reduce size of payments, and reduce who is eligible. Long term I suspect the second is what has to happen.
In theory you would reduce the payments but the payments we give people are already so low relative to the rest of Europe that isn't an option...
Edit reality is if you are able to work you should have to work a virtually full week (25-30 hours minimum) to receive universal credit.
if that means we need to provide more childcare to facilitate that for single parents means we provide more childcare but reality is we shouldn't be subsidising people who are capable of working which is why the disability cuts proposed are so cruel...
I know I keep banging on about this but for many people their PIP grant allows them to continue working. If you cut the eligibility too much then a lot of people who could have worked with a bit of help will become more economically inactive not less. If I were trying to come up with some reforms I would probably try to transfer those people into an expanded version of the Access to Work Grant to make the dividing line clearer.
Oh I know.
We have 2 big issues with disability, one it costs money to allow those with brains but physical issues to work. As you say the current PIP arrangements allow many people on the cusp to work in a way that wouldn't make sense if their benefits were cut even a little bit.
And the minimum wage has meant those who can't do many things will never get a job because their employers can't pay then £12.21 (or whatever is the minimum wage) regardless because the amount of work they achieve cannot justify paying them that. And I'm saying this as someone who always emphasised to senior company management how nice it was to see Dave (with serious Downs Syndrome) very slowing moving baskets round Morrisons at a branch 2 miles from the head office.
It should be clear from the above that literally the one area where I think benefit cuts shouldn't be coming from is the area that allows disabled people to actually work..
Edit: £170 billion of that is pensioners. Triple lock. Time to take the boomers wallets away finally?
Nice to hear some realism from Zia Yusuf.
Let's see some detail.
Suspect that like all the other parties they wont touch the boomer pensioners.
Two ways to reduce welfare: reduce size of payments, and reduce who is eligible. Long term I suspect the second is what has to happen.
In theory you would reduce the payments but the payments we give people are already so low relative to the rest of Europe that isn't an option...
Edit reality is if you are able to work you should have to work a virtually full week (25-30 hours minimum) to receive universal credit.
if that means we need to provide more childcare to facilitate that for single parents means we provide more childcare but reality is we shouldn't be subsidising people who are capable of working which is why the disability cuts proposed are so cruel...
I know I keep banging on about this but for many people their PIP grant allows them to continue working. If you cut the eligibility too much then a lot of people who could have worked with a bit of help will become more economically inactive not less. If I were trying to come up with some reforms I would probably try to transfer those people into an expanded version of the Access to Work Grant to make the dividing line clearer.
Oh I know.
We have 2 big issues with disability, one it costs money to allow those with brains but physical issues to work. As you say the current PIP arrangements allow many people on the cusp to work in a way that wouldn't make sense if their benefits were cut even a little bit.
And the minimum wage has meant those who can't do many things will never get a job because their employers can't pay then £12.21 (or whatever is the minimum wage) regardless because the amount of work they achieve cannot justify paying them that. And I'm saying this as someone who always emphasised to senior company management how nice it was to see Dave (with serious Downs Syndrome) very slowing moving baskets round Morrisons at a branch 2 miles from the head office.
It should be clear from the above that literally the one area where I think benefit cuts shouldn't be coming from is the area that allows disabled people to actually work..
That's a really good point about the minimum wage. My Uncle was severely mentally impaired after a motorbike accident when he was 15. Until his old age he always worked collecting trollies at Tesco or sanitising medical instruments at the hospital. I suspect he wouldn't have been given those jobs these days
ICE arrest dozens of construction workers building a school in Alabama.
We wouldn't send anyone to El Salvador without a trial, but we'd arrest and deport most of the people America is. Remember we'll send back Jamaican drug dealers who came to the UK age three and who are entitled to citizenship but forgot to apply.
I suppose America has been so used to immigration laws not being enforced that they are now surprised when they are. Which probably makes it wrong, because governments should be consistent.
The illegal immigrants, sorry undocumented workers, suited both political parties for a long time. A steady stream of people who have little to no rights because they are in the US illegally did many low paid jobs that Americans just won't do, so everybody turned a blind eye to it. So your high skilled workers come through the front door on visas, and the low skilled gaps were filled with illegals.
The shift has been a) the shear scale of those crossing both the Northern and Southern border and b) many of the people crossing the border, rather than disappearing into the fields to pick fruit or into the cities to work as cleaners, they have claim asylum.
The Northern border for a while it was quite ridiculous, people were flying into Canada on tourist visa, taking a bus out of town and walking across the border, where they then phoned the border patrol to tell them where they were as they are claiming asylum and would like a ride.
Tories with the begging bowl out - spare me a ward, sir? Just one will do!
I'm predicting 6 wins for Reform, 2 for the LDs, 1 each for Lab and Greens. The Labour one is in Greenwich / Shooters Hill, but the Greens could get close.
Edit: £170 billion of that is pensioners. Triple lock. Time to take the boomers wallets away finally?
Nice to hear some realism from Zia Yusuf.
Let's see some detail.
Suspect that like all the other parties they wont touch the boomer pensioners.
Two ways to reduce welfare: reduce size of payments, and reduce who is eligible. Long term I suspect the second is what has to happen.
In theory you would reduce the payments but the payments we give people are already so low relative to the rest of Europe that isn't an option...
Edit reality is if you are able to work you should have to work a virtually full week (25-30 hours minimum) to receive universal credit.
if that means we need to provide more childcare to facilitate that for single parents means we provide more childcare but reality is we shouldn't be subsidising people who are capable of working which is why the disability cuts proposed are so cruel...
I know I keep banging on about this but for many people their PIP grant allows them to continue working. If you cut the eligibility too much then a lot of people who could have worked with a bit of help will become more economically inactive not less. If I were trying to come up with some reforms I would probably try to transfer those people into an expanded version of the Access to Work Grant to make the dividing line clearer.
Oh I know.
We have 2 big issues with disability, one it costs money to allow those with brains but physical issues to work. As you say the current PIP arrangements allow many people on the cusp to work in a way that wouldn't make sense if their benefits were cut even a little bit.
And the minimum wage has meant those who can't do many things will never get a job because their employers can't pay then £12.21 (or whatever is the minimum wage) regardless because the amount of work they achieve cannot justify paying them that. And I'm saying this as someone who always emphasised to senior company management how nice it was to see Dave (with serious Downs Syndrome) very slowing moving baskets round Morrisons at a branch 2 miles from the head office.
It should be clear from the above that literally the one area where I think benefit cuts shouldn't be coming from is the area that allows disabled people to actually work..
That's a really good point about the minimum wage. My Uncle was severely mentally impaired after a motorbike accident when he was 15. Until his old age he always worked collecting trollies at Tesco or sanitising medical instruments at the hospital. I suspect he wouldn't have been given those jobs these days
Its a really tricky one, because as you say will companies employ them on full minimum wage, plus things like NI liabilities. But as the same time, should people less fortunate be exploited like this by being paid under the minimum wage (when the whole point of it is, that people aren't).
Obviously there is always the issue with benefits, cliff edges, lose of support etc. I wonder if in these kinda of situations, the individual gets paid minimum wage like everybody else, but the government provides a small hourly subsidy for employing them and really careful to ensure that if they it goes well and both parties want them work more hours, that they don't get smashed by the system.
We now know that Labour are constitutionally incapable of addressing our problems. We now have proof, multiple times over. They cannot solve ANYTHING - their basic stupid instincts are always “no cuts” and “immigrants are great let’s have more” and “fuck Britain it’s evil”. And that’s it
They won’t achieve anything. So what is the point of them? There is none. This is the fag end of the fag end of the fag end of a progressive liberal ethos which was born post WW2 and has now driven itself into the dust
What replaces it?
Hang on, they've only had 11 months so far. Give them time.
This is one of my favourite subjects as well, thanks for reminding me of the article. Snobbery really is the British disease, isn't it. Also, the fact such an interesting article only has 3 comments is telling.
We now know that Labour are constitutionally incapable of addressing our problems. We now have proof, multiple times over. They cannot solve ANYTHING - their basic stupid instincts are always “no cuts” and “immigrants are great let’s have more” and “fuck Britain it’s evil”. And that’s it
They won’t achieve anything. So what is the point of them? There is none. This is the fag end of the fag end of the fag end of a progressive liberal ethos which was born post WW2 and has now driven itself into the dust
What replaces it?
Hang on, they've only had 11 months so far. Give them time.
Its not great signs when after 11 months you are U-turning / ditching the few moves you have made, when you didn't have many grand ideas to start with and having to back down to backbenchers even though you have a healthy majority. And every other decision is very much what what have happened on auto-pilot regardless of who was in charge e.g. having to increase defense spending.
It is very much what you normally see at the fag end of a government.
They really didn't do any real homework in opposition. Its chalk and cheese compared to Blair in 1997 and Cameron in 2010.
Edit: £170 billion of that is pensioners. Triple lock. Time to take the boomers wallets away finally?
Nice to hear some realism from Zia Yusuf.
Let's see some detail.
Suspect that like all the other parties they wont touch the boomer pensioners.
Two ways to reduce welfare: reduce size of payments, and reduce who is eligible. Long term I suspect the second is what has to happen.
In theory you would reduce the payments but the payments we give people are already so low relative to the rest of Europe that isn't an option...
Edit reality is if you are able to work you should have to work a virtually full week (25-30 hours minimum) to receive universal credit.
if that means we need to provide more childcare to facilitate that for single parents means we provide more childcare but reality is we shouldn't be subsidising people who are capable of working which is why the disability cuts proposed are so cruel...
I know I keep banging on about this but for many people their PIP grant allows them to continue working. If you cut the eligibility too much then a lot of people who could have worked with a bit of help will become more economically inactive not less. If I were trying to come up with some reforms I would probably try to transfer those people into an expanded version of the Access to Work Grant to make the dividing line clearer.
Oh I know.
We have 2 big issues with disability, one it costs money to allow those with brains but physical issues to work. As you say the current PIP arrangements allow many people on the cusp to work in a way that wouldn't make sense if their benefits were cut even a little bit.
And the minimum wage has meant those who can't do many things will never get a job because their employers can't pay then £12.21 (or whatever is the minimum wage) regardless because the amount of work they achieve cannot justify paying them that. And I'm saying this as someone who always emphasised to senior company management how nice it was to see Dave (with serious Downs Syndrome) very slowing moving baskets round Morrisons at a branch 2 miles from the head office.
It should be clear from the above that literally the one area where I think benefit cuts shouldn't be coming from is the area that allows disabled people to actually work..
That's a really good point about the minimum wage. My Uncle was severely mentally impaired after a motorbike accident when he was 15. Until his old age he always worked collecting trollies at Tesco or sanitising medical instruments at the hospital. I suspect he wouldn't have been given those jobs these days
Its a really tricky one, because as you say will companies employ them on full minimum wage, plus things like NI liabilities. But as the same time, should people less fortunate be exploited like this by being paid under the minimum wage (when the whole point of it is, that people aren't).
Obviously there is always the issue with benefits, cliff edges, lose of support etc. I wonder if in these kinda of situations, the individual gets paid minimum wage like everybody else, but the government provides a small hourly subsidy for employing them and really careful to ensure that if they it goes well and both parties want them work more hours, that they don't get smashed by the system.
An actual, sensible fix for this. Instead of paying the person disability benefits, pay the employer.
As part of their fitness to work assessment (or whatever it is called this week), assign a "percentage functionality*" - ie this person is equivalent to 75% of a unskilled healthy adult, that person 60%. Any employer who takes them on pays them the full "going rate" (at least MNW), however they get to claim back the "productivity gap". So take on someone who's 75% as effective as an normal person, claim back 25% of their cost of employment (true cost, inc employers NI, paid holiday etc) from the government.
Lots of advantages to this. People all get paid a reasonable rate, but without making it unaffordable for employers. There's little incentive for individuals to swing the lead, as they only get increased employability, rather than wads of cash.
The main drawback is the need for the assessment process, but we do this for cash benefits now.
We'd also need the support to fade out as people go up the income scale - no need to subsidise paraplegic hedge fund managers. I'd suggest full support at NMW fading out to zero once in the higher rate tax bracket wouldn't be too outrageous.
* the naming of this should probably be a bit more diplomatic.
On the minimum wage: Some months ago, Megan McArdle described a paper that found that increases in minimum wages in parts of the US, led to more homeless in those places. (Those at the bottom lost jobs, which meant that it didn't pay to construct housing for them was the argument. I haven't bothered to try to find the paper, but she is both smart and careful.)
We now know that Labour are constitutionally incapable of addressing our problems. We now have proof, multiple times over. They cannot solve ANYTHING - their basic stupid instincts are always “no cuts” and “immigrants are great let’s have more” and “fuck Britain it’s evil”. And that’s it
They won’t achieve anything. So what is the point of them? There is none. This is the fag end of the fag end of the fag end of a progressive liberal ethos which was born post WW2 and has now driven itself into the dust
What replaces it?
This is pure projection. We do sometimes read your hysterical ramblings and the "Britain is evil" meme mostly comes from you and your side.
The short answer is electoral reform. Changing the party alone will not change enough, and anyway RefUK is an extraordinarily weak vessel, even compared to Labour. Changing the system is what comes next
We now know that Labour are constitutionally incapable of addressing our problems. We now have proof, multiple times over. They cannot solve ANYTHING - their basic stupid instincts are always “no cuts” and “immigrants are great let’s have more” and “fuck Britain it’s evil”. And that’s it
They won’t achieve anything. So what is the point of them? There is none. This is the fag end of the fag end of the fag end of a progressive liberal ethos which was born post WW2 and has now driven itself into the dust
What replaces it?
This is pure projection. We do sometimes read your hysterical ramblings and the "Britain is evil" meme mostly comes from you and your side.
The short answer is electoral reform. Changing the party alone will not change enough, and anyway RefUK is an extraordinarily weak vessel, even compared to Labour. Changing the system is what comes next
How would electoral reform change anything for the better?
Far more likely it would entrench a centrist consensus where the state grows ever larger as public money is used to bribe tiny constituencies, with an unaccountable, ever-revolving, never evolving political class as it does in so many European countries (Italy, Israel, Ireland and Belgium being obvious examples), ultimately giving extremists yet more ammunition to discredit democracy.
Whatever the problems of our system, at least voters can generally vote to cleanse the stables every four or five years if the last lot have done too bad a job.
It's always comforting to believe in quick fixes, but there's no shortcut to, or substitute for arguing for, then implementing, policies that work.
We now know that Labour are constitutionally incapable of addressing our problems. We now have proof, multiple times over. They cannot solve ANYTHING - their basic stupid instincts are always “no cuts” and “immigrants are great let’s have more” and “fuck Britain it’s evil”. And that’s it
They won’t achieve anything. So what is the point of them? There is none. This is the fag end of the fag end of the fag end of a progressive liberal ethos which was born post WW2 and has now driven itself into the dust
What replaces it?
This is pure projection. We do sometimes read your hysterical ramblings and the "Britain is evil" meme mostly comes from you and your side.
The short answer is electoral reform. Changing the party alone will not change enough, and anyway RefUK is an extraordinarily weak vessel, even compared to Labour. Changing the system is what comes next
Changing the system won't resolve the problem, because the new system will be filled by the same people. Same sort of people, rather, and sadly we already know what they are like because they're us.
Edit: £170 billion of that is pensioners. Triple lock. Time to take the boomers wallets away finally?
Nice to hear some realism from Zia Yusuf.
Let's see some detail.
Suspect that like all the other parties they wont touch the boomer pensioners.
Two ways to reduce welfare: reduce size of payments, and reduce who is eligible. Long term I suspect the second is what has to happen.
In theory you would reduce the payments but the payments we give people are already so low relative to the rest of Europe that isn't an option...
Edit reality is if you are able to work you should have to work a virtually full week (25-30 hours minimum) to receive universal credit.
if that means we need to provide more childcare to facilitate that for single parents means we provide more childcare but reality is we shouldn't be subsidising people who are capable of working which is why the disability cuts proposed are so cruel...
I know I keep banging on about this but for many people their PIP grant allows them to continue working. If you cut the eligibility too much then a lot of people who could have worked with a bit of help will become more economically inactive not less. If I were trying to come up with some reforms I would probably try to transfer those people into an expanded version of the Access to Work Grant to make the dividing line clearer.
That would be the fudge. You strangle one benefit but you transfer them to another or create a new one. Has been done with other 'legacy' payments in the past. They might even create another category in Universal Credit. What is missing from all this 'drama' are the lawyers sitting on the wings waiting for the opportunity to launch judicial reviews for their client base. Legislation get clarified and over time gets gutted.
Voters rarely understand how legislation works and what games can be played in the courts. Everyone wants a simple solution but it is never the case. Needs something like the Law Commission to sit down over a long period of time with interest groups to try to untangle/simplify the legislative framework.
We now know that Labour are constitutionally incapable of addressing our problems. We now have proof, multiple times over. They cannot solve ANYTHING - their basic stupid instincts are always “no cuts” and “immigrants are great let’s have more” and “fuck Britain it’s evil”. And that’s it
They won’t achieve anything. So what is the point of them? There is none. This is the fag end of the fag end of the fag end of a progressive liberal ethos which was born post WW2 and has now driven itself into the dust
What replaces it?
This is pure projection. We do sometimes read your hysterical ramblings and the "Britain is evil" meme mostly comes from you and your side.
BREAKING NEWS...I was shocked to hear that the State of Israel, which has just had one of its Greatest Moments in History, and is strongly led by Bibi Netanyahu, is continuing its ridiculous Witch Hunt against their Great War Time Prime Minister! Bibi and I just went through HELL together, fighting a very tough and brilliant longtime enemy of Israel, Iran, and Bibi could not have been better, sharper, or stronger in his LOVE for the incredible Holy Land. Anybody else would have suffered losses, embarrassment, and chaos! Bibi Netanyahu was a WARRIOR, like perhaps no other Warrior in the History of Israel, and the result was something that nobody thought was possible, a complete elimination of potentially one of the biggest and most powerful Nuclear Weapons anywhere in the World, and it was going to happen, SOON! We were fighting, literally, for the Survival of Israel, and there is nobody in Israel's History that fought harder or more competently than Bibi Netanyahu. Despite all of this, I just learned that Bibi has been summoned to Court on Monday for the continuation of this long running, (He has been going through this "Horror Show" since May of 2020 – Unheard of! This is the first time a sitting Israeli Prime Minister has ever been on trial.), politically motivated case, "concerning cigars, a Bugs Bunny doll, and numerous other unfair charges" in order to do him great harm. Such a WITCH HUNT, for a man who has given so much, is unthinkable to me. He deserves much better than this, and so does the State of Israel. Bibi Netanyahu's trial should be CANCELLED, IMMEDIATELY, or a Pardon given to a Great Hero, who has done so much for the State. Perhaps there is no one that I know who could have worked in better harmony with the President of the United States, ME, than Bibi Netanyahu. It was the United States of America that saved Israel, and now it is going to be the United States of America that saves Bibi Netanyahu. THIS TRAVESTY OF "JUSTICE" CAN NOT BE ALLOWED!
I had to scroll up a couple of times whilst reading that to check it really was by Trump as it reads like an absolute pisstake by SNL or someone.
I’m sure however that the Sicarii and the Maccabees would be glad that Trump recognises that Bibi is “ like perhaps no other Warrior in the History of Israel”, they wouldn’t want their legacies tarnished.
This is quite a smart take, though he can't resist the dig at the end. Let's hope Mamdani doesn't govern as incompetently,
There's a Trumpian quality to this election. Everyone pointing out all the ways he's stomped on various sacred taboos and his voters not caring one wink about that, and actually finding it funny people are mad about that. A trolling quality to it all, but since it comes from left not right, it's wrapped in a veneer of smart condescending rather than mocking anger.. https://x.com/Chris_arnade/status/1937120320776786213
Mamdani also trades in similar promises without any explanation grounded in hard economics. Chicken over rice now costs $10 or more.
Just catching up on the house building chat. It’s something I would like to do too. Plenty of land up here in Northumberland I would imagine. Nothing grand, just humble, small, good quality.
I’m a construction lawyer so you’d hope it would be something I could manage…
On the topic of the political class, the anti-immugration lobby should be careful what they wish for.
If 327 Reform MP's were to enter parliament, as the current polls suggest, and based on their performance in local administration, Britain would see levels of incompetent authoritarianism not experienced since before the constitutional monarchy.
On the topic of Netanyahu, I don't think the Israeli courts will heed Trump's threats, because the integrity of their system is at state.
It's a choice between perpetual war and any sort of public accountability, and they don't want to become just another dictatorship in the region. However isolated Israel has become, It's still not the Israeli self-image.
On the topic of the political class, the anti-immugration lobby should be careful what they wish for.
If 327 Reform MP's were to enter parliament, as the current polls suggest, and based on their performance in local administration, Britain would see levels of incompetent authoritarianism not experienced since before the constitutional monarchy.
The US economy is resilient and can survive a fair bit of Trump shithousery, that of the UK not so much.
Comments
English Tories are either too wet or too MAGA.
1. Pull the bill, but then the markets get jitters and Reeves has to find £5bn from somewhere.
2. Plough ahead - but risk losing the vote, prompting cabinet resignations, putting Starmer’s leadership in jeopardy, and having all the negative outcomes of 1.
3. Try to offer some fudge (which seems the most likely) which might just reduce enough of the heat to squeeze it through. Then they find themselves in hock to backbenchers, who will demand concessions from every policy. If it’s watered down enough, once again we get to at least some of the negative outcomes of 1.
It is absolutely, stunningly incompetent to have lost a parliamentary majority of this size after one year of government. These were supposed to be the grown ups. They are starting to look less effective than the Tories (and that is saying something).
Funniky enough i half jokingly predicted Berwickshire would be the safest seat last July. Its very McTory up there and Dumfriesshire next door was of course the sole holdout 2005 to 2017
One of our favourite variations started with sautéing bits of bacon in the pan. Yum.
And of a piece with their climbdowns on the winter fuel allowance and their abandonment of their pledge not to raise taxes.
The moment they face any serious opposition, they will always take the short-term, politically convenient solution over economic competence or prudence. While gaslighting us about being committed to economic growth, hard choices and working people.
Four more years of this.
It is difficult to think of reasons to support Labour. They are very lucky the Greens don't have a Sanders type figure leading them.
Sources said there was a considerable difference of opinion within government. “There is a camp for pulling it, a camp for concession and a small but insane camp for ploughing on,” one said, suggesting Reeves was in the latter camp.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/jun/25/keir-starmer-dismisses-labour-welfare-cuts-rebellion-as-noises-off
It feels more and more like she’s going to be the sacrificial lamb who has to deliver the really bad news in the Autumn, probably in time for a demotion early in the new year or after the May elections.
But this is why I'm starting to regard Starmer and co as utterly incompetent - none of the stuff they needed to do was difficult and it's not like I've not pointed out my solutions to the problems earlier. Use WFA to reverse the employee NI cuts, that gives you cash.
Employment the employer NI changes next year to improve the NHs while really solving the extra defence spending...
Looking back the last vaguely competent government was Labour in 2008/9.
If someone emerges in that sphere in the next couple of years, Labour are really f****d.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/jun/25/keir-starmer-dismisses-labour-welfare-cuts-rebellion-as-noises-off
@jessicaelgot
EXC - No10 is set to offer concessions to Labour rebels on welfare. Talks are ongoing but changes could be made to the Pip reforms.
A number of cabinet ministers are now said to believe the bill has no chance of passing in its current form.
Story with
@kiranstacey
@PippaCrerar
“Rude and inconsiderate parking at the fete.
I won’t stand for it.
I am working to deliver my plan for change for the village, removing the scourge of nuisance parking.”
I am still chuckling at their recent restaurant review for some place in Bristol and they gave the address as Birmingham.
You then have Osbourne accidentally winning the 2015 election to the point the Tories had a majority to blame for Brexit so I really wouldn't rate them as competent, Lib Dems maybe but Cameron and Osborne definitely not.
Saudi Arabia invested $1bn in DAZN
DAZN spent $1bn on the rights to the FIFA Club World Cup
Saudi Arabia secured the 2034 World Cup
And the Tory votes don't exist unless the bill remains as it is.
They were dealt a shit hand. We all know that. We all accept that. But it’s like, instead of playing their bad hand they’ve come to the poker party with no idea what poker is, or how it works, and when the poker match starts and they realise they are losing badly, instead of folding their cards and taking the loss they run around hurling urine at everyone while singing a Christmas carol in Russian
And then they try to sodomise a pot plant
Saudi invest $1bn for 5% stake in DAZN
Now who isn't going to give 5% of a potentially worthless company away in an attempt to become the go to Global sports company especially whwn Saudi also controls some of the sports you may need.
As the podcast referenced above points out - it's hard to see a loser as literally everyone gains from the original plan even before Saudi secured the World Cup...
Zia Yusuf
@ZiaYusufUK
·
2h
Welfare spending is out of control.
£303 billion per year.
£117 billion to people of working age.
23% of the working age people are on benefits.
Welfare spending per person rises a further 75% in 2 decades.
If political leaders don’t take radical action, the IMF will.
https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/1937968227864199569
Edit: £170 billion of that is pensioners. Triple lock. Time to take the boomers wallets away finally?
Meanwhile, there is a lot to be depressed about with respect to the current government. But the key bits of their agenda (planning, energy, relative realism about the costs of things) are the right things to target.
Aaron Rupar
@atrupar
Trump announces another 8am news conference for Hegseth
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1937983149545501050
Suspect that like all the other parties they wont touch the boomer pensioners.
At least it will be a quick trip for the B2s....
They won’t achieve anything. So what is the point of them? There is none. This is the fag end of the fag end of the fag end of a progressive liberal ethos which was born post WW2 and has now driven itself into the dust
What replaces it?
From April 2026 the Triple Lock should be abolished and the state pension should be uplifted by CPI only.
DC pension funds have no built in inflation protection. Neither do annuities unless you accept a much lower initial amount. Private DB schemes are generally limited to CPI increase often with a low cap.
BREAKING NEWS...I was shocked to hear that the State of Israel, which has just had one of its Greatest Moments in History, and is strongly led by Bibi Netanyahu, is continuing its ridiculous Witch Hunt against their Great War Time Prime Minister! Bibi and I just went through HELL together, fighting a very tough and brilliant longtime enemy of Israel, Iran, and Bibi could not have been better, sharper, or stronger in his LOVE for the incredible Holy Land. Anybody else would have suffered losses, embarrassment, and chaos! Bibi Netanyahu was a WARRIOR, like perhaps no other Warrior in the History of Israel, and the result was something that nobody thought was possible, a complete elimination of potentially one of the biggest and most powerful Nuclear Weapons anywhere in the World, and it was going to happen, SOON! We were fighting, literally, for the Survival of Israel, and there is nobody in Israel's History that fought harder or more competently than Bibi Netanyahu. Despite all of this, I just learned that Bibi has been summoned to Court on Monday for the continuation of this long running, (He has been going through this "Horror Show" since May of 2020 – Unheard of! This is the first time a sitting Israeli Prime Minister has ever been on trial.), politically motivated case, "concerning cigars, a Bugs Bunny doll, and numerous other unfair charges" in order to do him great harm. Such a WITCH HUNT, for a man who has given so much, is unthinkable to me. He deserves much better than this, and so does the State of Israel. Bibi Netanyahu's trial should be CANCELLED, IMMEDIATELY, or a Pardon given to a Great Hero, who has done so much for the State. Perhaps there is no one that I know who could have worked in better harmony with the President of the United States, ME, than Bibi Netanyahu. It was the United States of America that saved Israel, and now it is going to be the United States of America that saves Bibi Netanyahu. THIS TRAVESTY OF "JUSTICE" CAN NOT BE ALLOWED!
I suppose America has been so used to immigration laws not being enforced that they are now surprised when they are. Which probably makes it wrong, because governments should be consistent.
Just can't think why.
Aaron Rupar
@atrupar
·
2m
Trump demands that Israel drop all court proceedings against "Great War Time Prime Minister" Netanyahu
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1938003803782987898
For instance I discovered yesterday there are Employment tribunals currently being scheduled for October 2028, that's going to be 2029 before September.
And that's before the new Employment Right act significantly increases the number of potential cases. And the Government has been clear that there isn't any more money....
Edit to add - the Government also accidentally announced yesterday another employment right change that was only supposed to hit consultation in October. We had great fun teasing the DWP policy officer involved...
@ClarkeMicah
The 'peaceful drug' marijuana is once again an accomplice in a crazy, filthy murder. Marcus Arduini-Monzo found guilty of a marauding attack 'while in a state of *cannabis-induced psychosis*' Witnesses described him as 'screaming “in delight” and smiling' after his crime. https://theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jun/25/man-37-guilty-of-murdering-daniel-anjorin-14-with-sword-in-london
7:10 PM · Jun 25, 2025
https://x.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1937936502580801704
Edit reality is if you are able to work you should have to work a virtually full week (25-30 hours minimum) to receive universal credit.
if that means we need to provide more childcare to facilitate that for single parents means we provide more childcare but reality is we shouldn't be subsidising people who are capable of working which is why the disability cuts proposed are so cruel...
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?"
We have 2 big issues with disability, one it costs money to allow those with brains but physical issues to work. As you say the current PIP arrangements allow many people on the cusp to work in a way that wouldn't make sense if their benefits were cut even a little bit.
And the minimum wage has meant those who can't do many things will never get a job because their employers can't pay then £12.21 (or whatever is the minimum wage) regardless because the amount of work they achieve cannot justify paying them that. And I'm saying this as someone who always emphasised to senior company management how nice it was to see Dave (with serious Downs Syndrome) very slowing moving baskets round Morrisons at a branch 2 miles from the head office.
It should be clear from the above that literally the one area where I think benefit cuts shouldn't be coming from is the area that allows disabled people to actually work..
The shift has been a) the shear scale of those crossing both the Northern and Southern border and b) many of the people crossing the border, rather than disappearing into the fields to pick fruit or into the cities to work as cleaners, they have claim asylum.
The Northern border for a while it was quite ridiculous, people were flying into Canada on tourist visa, taking a bus out of town and walking across the border, where they then phoned the border patrol to tell them where they were as they are claiming asylum and would like a ride.
Obviously there is always the issue with benefits, cliff edges, lose of support etc. I wonder if in these kinda of situations, the individual gets paid minimum wage like everybody else, but the government provides a small hourly subsidy for employing them and really careful to ensure that if they it goes well and both parties want them work more hours, that they don't get smashed by the system.
https://unherd.com/2020/09/the-plot-against-mercia/
It is very much what you normally see at the fag end of a government.
They really didn't do any real homework in opposition. Its chalk and cheese compared to Blair in 1997 and Cameron in 2010.
As part of their fitness to work assessment (or whatever it is called this week), assign a "percentage functionality*" - ie this person is equivalent to 75% of a unskilled healthy adult, that person 60%.
Any employer who takes them on pays them the full "going rate" (at least MNW), however they get to claim back the "productivity gap". So take on someone who's 75% as effective as an normal person, claim back 25% of their cost of employment (true cost, inc employers NI, paid holiday etc) from the government.
Lots of advantages to this. People all get paid a reasonable rate, but without making it unaffordable for employers. There's little incentive for individuals to swing the lead, as they only get increased employability, rather than wads of cash.
The main drawback is the need for the assessment process, but we do this for cash benefits now.
We'd also need the support to fade out as people go up the income scale - no need to subsidise paraplegic hedge fund managers. I'd suggest full support at NMW fading out to zero once in the higher rate tax bracket wouldn't be too outrageous.
* the naming of this should probably be a bit more diplomatic.
The short answer is electoral reform. Changing the party alone will not change enough, and anyway RefUK is an extraordinarily weak vessel, even compared to Labour. Changing the system is what comes next
Far more likely it would entrench a centrist consensus where the state grows ever larger as public money is used to bribe tiny constituencies, with an unaccountable, ever-revolving, never evolving political class as it does in so many European countries (Italy, Israel, Ireland and Belgium being obvious examples), ultimately giving extremists yet more ammunition to discredit democracy.
Whatever the problems of our system, at least voters can generally vote to cleanse the stables every four or five years if the last lot have done too bad a job.
It's always comforting to believe in quick fixes, but there's no shortcut to, or substitute for arguing for, then implementing, policies that work.
Voters rarely understand how legislation works and what games can be played in the courts. Everyone wants a simple solution but it is never the case. Needs something like the Law Commission to sit down over a long period of time with interest groups to try to untangle/simplify the legislative framework.
I’m sure however that the Sicarii and the Maccabees would be glad that Trump recognises that Bibi is “ like perhaps no other Warrior in the History of Israel”, they wouldn’t want their legacies tarnished.
Let's hope Mamdani doesn't govern as incompetently,
There's a Trumpian quality to this election. Everyone pointing out all the ways he's stomped on various sacred taboos and his voters not caring one wink about that, and actually finding it funny people are mad about that. A trolling quality to it all, but since it comes from left not right, it's wrapped in a veneer of smart condescending rather than mocking anger..
https://x.com/Chris_arnade/status/1937120320776786213
Mamdani also trades in similar promises without any explanation grounded in hard economics.
Chicken over rice now costs $10 or more.
It's time to make halal eight bucks again.
https://x.com/ZohranKMamdani/status/1878853557111414795
I’m a construction lawyer so you’d hope it would be something I could manage…
On the topic of the political class, the anti-immugration lobby should be careful what they wish for.
If 327 Reform MP's were to enter parliament, as the current polls suggest, and based on their performance in local administration, Britain would see levels of incompetent authoritarianism not experienced since before the constitutional monarchy.
It's a choice between perpetual war and any sort of public accountability, and they don't want to become just another dictatorship in the region. However isolated Israel has become, It's still not the Israeli self-image.