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The politics of envy – politicalbetting.com

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,596
    Pulpstar said:

    Starmer would not, imo, be facing quite such a rebellion had he held fast over WFA

    Everyone knows that if you push him hard enough, he folds.

    So they push.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,025
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Tories with the begging bowl out - spare me a ward, sir? Just one will do!
    I'm predicting 6 wins for Reform, 2 for the LDs, 1 each for Lab and Greens. The Labour one is in Greenwich / Shooters Hill, but the Greens could get close.
    Sounds fair. Ive not looked too deeply at this weeks wards so no guess from me, ill just look for the results
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,127
    Nigelb said:

    This is quite a smart take, though he can't resist the dig at the end.
    Let's hope Mamdani doesn't govern as incompetently,

    There's a Trumpian quality to this election. Everyone pointing out all the ways he's stomped on various sacred taboos and his voters not caring one wink about that, and actually finding it funny people are mad about that. A trolling quality to it all, but since it comes from left not right, it's wrapped in a veneer of smart condescending rather than mocking anger..
    https://x.com/Chris_arnade/status/1937120320776786213

    Mamdani also trades in similar promises without any explanation grounded in hard economics.
    Chicken over rice now costs $10 or more.

    It's time to make halal eight bucks again.

    https://x.com/ZohranKMamdani/status/1878853557111414795

    There’s a fight fire with fire quality to it all, and the US instinct to love a winner is kicking in. Even that useless centrist wibbler Schumer now loves Zohran.
    I believe Cuomo is threatening to run as an independent. Let it go, Andy.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,025

    MRP tidbit, safest Tory seat in the country..... Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

    Titbit.
    Bit un-called for - Wooliedyed is a very respected poster.
    Take that back! I most certainly am not :wink:
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,596

    Pulpstar said:

    Starmer would not, imo, be facing quite such a rebellion had he held fast over WFA

    Hes the sort of guy who stands with a a hi viz and clipboard at a fete whilst people park where they like. Feeble PM
    Brilliant.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,020

    On the topic of Netanyahu, I don't think the Israeli courts will heed Trump's threats, because the integrity of their system is at state.

    It's a choice between perpetual war and any sort of public accountability, and they don't want to become just another dictatorship in the region. However isolated Israel has become, It's still not the Israeli self-image.

    I'm sure they won't. The last thing they want is to look like some dodgy Western Hemisphere country where criminals get away with their crimes just because they are wealthy and powerful.

    Trump, of course...
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 1,040
    Battlebus said:

    Stereodog said:

    eek said:

    carnforth said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Oh, looks like Reformica are drawing a line in the sand:



    Zia Yusuf

    @ZiaYusufUK
    ·
    2h
    Welfare spending is out of control.

    £303 billion per year.

    £117 billion to people of working age.

    23% of the working age people are on benefits.

    Welfare spending per person rises a further 75% in 2 decades.

    If political leaders don’t take radical action, the IMF will.


    https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/1937968227864199569


    Edit: £170 billion of that is pensioners. Triple lock. Time to take the boomers wallets away finally?

    Nice to hear some realism from Zia Yusuf.
    Let's see some detail.

    Suspect that like all the other parties they wont touch the boomer pensioners.
    Two ways to reduce welfare: reduce size of payments, and reduce who is eligible. Long term I suspect the second is what has to happen.
    In theory you would reduce the payments but the payments we give people are already so low relative to the rest of Europe that isn't an option...

    Edit reality is if you are able to work you should have to work a virtually full week (25-30 hours minimum) to receive universal credit.

    if that means we need to provide more childcare to facilitate that for single parents means we provide more childcare but reality is we shouldn't be subsidising people who are capable of working which is why the disability cuts proposed are so cruel...
    I know I keep banging on about this but for many people their PIP grant allows them to continue working. If you cut the eligibility too much then a lot of people who could have worked with a bit of help will become more economically inactive not less. If I were trying to come up with some reforms I would probably try to transfer those people into an expanded version of the Access to Work Grant to make the dividing line clearer.
    That would be the fudge. You strangle one benefit but you transfer them to another or create a new one. Has been done with other 'legacy' payments in the past. They might even create another category in Universal Credit. What is missing from all this 'drama' are the lawyers sitting on the wings waiting for the opportunity to launch judicial reviews for their client base. Legislation get clarified and over time gets gutted.

    Voters rarely understand how legislation works and what games can be played in the courts. Everyone wants a simple solution but it is never the case. Needs something like the Law Commission to sit down over a long period of time with interest groups to try to untangle/simplify the legislative framework.
    I don't think my proposal would be just a fudge. This whole debate has made it abundantly clear that politicians, public and even the DWP (based on my experience of helping a relative apply for it) are hopelessly confused about what PIP is for.

    I think Access to Work is a great scheme because it's extremely focused on what people with disabilities need when in work. You get a specific grant which details what the money is going to be spent on (screen reading software, special headphones etc). If you extended that a bit to cover the things that people need to get to work (a carer to get you dressed and out of the house in the morning for example) then you'd stop a lot of people being lumped in to a generalised benefit.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,694

    Morning PB.

    On the topic of the political class, the anti-immugration lobby should be careful what they wish for.

    If 327 Reform MP's were to enter parliament, as the current polls suggest, and based on their performance in local administration, Britain would see levels of incompetent authoritarianism not experienced since before the constitutional monarchy.

    That would be helped along to a great extent by the Despair At All The Others people.

    It seems likely that the incompetent government you envisage would be entirely run by the professional civil servants, so maybe not that incompetent but not that democratic either.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,025
    edited 6:30AM
    Implied VI from YG MRP and seat
    Ref 26% 271
    Lab 23% 178
    Con 18% 46
    LD 15% 81
    Green 11% 7
    SNP 3% 38
    PC 1% 7

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,659

    Nigelb said:

    This is quite a smart take, though he can't resist the dig at the end.
    Let's hope Mamdani doesn't govern as incompetently,

    There's a Trumpian quality to this election. Everyone pointing out all the ways he's stomped on various sacred taboos and his voters not caring one wink about that, and actually finding it funny people are mad about that. A trolling quality to it all, but since it comes from left not right, it's wrapped in a veneer of smart condescending rather than mocking anger..
    https://x.com/Chris_arnade/status/1937120320776786213

    Mamdani also trades in similar promises without any explanation grounded in hard economics.
    Chicken over rice now costs $10 or more.

    It's time to make halal eight bucks again.

    https://x.com/ZohranKMamdani/status/1878853557111414795

    There’s a fight fire with fire quality to it all, and the US instinct to love a winner is kicking in. Even that useless centrist wibbler Schumer now loves Zohran.
    I believe Cuomo is threatening to run as an independent. Let it go, Andy.
    The most significant thing about it isn't so much his politics - in fact I suspect he won despite his politics - it's the unmistakeable rejection of the old guard. Cuomo was endorsed by a large herd of the Democratic establishment.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,300
    AnneJGP said:

    Morning PB.

    On the topic of the political class, the anti-immugration lobby should be careful what they wish for.

    If 327 Reform MP's were to enter parliament, as the current polls suggest, and based on their performance in local administration, Britain would see levels of incompetent authoritarianism not experienced since before the constitutional monarchy.

    That would be helped along to a great extent by the Despair At All The Others people.

    It seems likely that the incompetent government you envisage would be entirely run by the professional civil servants, so maybe not that incompetent but not that democratic either.
    Yes, although MP's can also change laws, as we all know. That many incompetence authoritarians would represent risks to the whole system.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,010
    Looking at the constituencies near me on the South Coast, it all looks rather questionable. We've had UKIP/Reform at local level and they don't have the level of support the MRP poll suggests. They don't have the ground game or the income generation for a local party either. It appears more of a reaction to people's current lives than a groundswell movement. But place your bets.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,300
    *Incompetent* authoritarians, that should be.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,646
    Battlebus said:

    Looking at the constituencies near me on the South Coast, it all looks rather questionable. We've had UKIP/Reform at local level and they don't have the level of support the MRP poll suggests. They don't have the ground game or the income generation for a local party either. It appears more of a reaction to people's current lives than a groundswell movement. But place your bets.
    I’d be interested whether the stunning SNP comeback in Scotland feels on to those living there. Presumably mainly a beneficiary of a Labour collapse.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,566
    Fishing said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    We now know that Labour are constitutionally incapable of addressing our problems. We now have proof, multiple times over. They cannot solve ANYTHING - their basic stupid instincts are always “no cuts” and “immigrants are great let’s have more” and “fuck Britain it’s evil”. And that’s it

    They won’t achieve anything. So what is the point of them? There is none. This is the fag end of the fag end of the fag end of a progressive liberal ethos which was born post WW2 and has now driven itself into the dust

    What replaces it?

    This is pure projection. We do sometimes read your hysterical ramblings and the "Britain is evil" meme mostly comes from you and your side.

    The short answer is electoral reform. Changing the party alone will not change enough, and anyway RefUK is an extraordinarily weak vessel, even compared to Labour. Changing the system is what comes next
    How would electoral reform change anything for the better?

    Far more likely it would entrench a centrist consensus where the state grows ever larger as public money is used to bribe tiny constituencies, with an unaccountable, ever-revolving, never evolving political class as it does in so many European countries (Italy, Israel, Ireland and Belgium being obvious examples), ultimately giving extremists yet more ammunition to discredit democracy.

    Whatever the problems of our system, at least voters can generally vote to cleanse the stables every four or five years if the last lot have done too bad a job.

    It's always comforting to believe in quick fixes, but there's no shortcut to, or substitute for arguing for, then implementing, policies that work.
    Electoral Reform is now extremely popular, and the Lib Dems, Greens and Reform all support it, as does a plurality of Labour members. I do indeed think PR is better than FPTP, but I say that electoral reform is coming, because that is the logic of the current situation.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,594
    My constituency Reform by 1% according to that MRP. I’d be voting for Labour in a heartbeat in that scenario
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,094

    Implied VI from YG MRP and seat
    Ref 26% 271
    Lab 23% 178
    Con 18% 46
    LD 15% 81
    Green 11% 7
    SNP 3% 38
    PC 1% 7

    Funny how I now see 50 seats for the Tories as not too bad a result!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,594
    Eabhal said:

    Implied VI from YG MRP and seat
    Ref 26% 271
    Lab 23% 178
    Con 18% 46
    LD 15% 81
    Green 11% 7
    SNP 3% 38
    PC 1% 7

    Funny how I now see 50 seats for the Tories as not too bad a result!
    4th place, 1 question at best at PMQs?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,461

    NEW THREAD

  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,776
    Leon said:

    We now know that Labour are constitutionally incapable of addressing our problems. We now have proof, multiple times over. They cannot solve ANYTHING - their basic stupid instincts are always “no cuts” and “immigrants are great let’s have more” and “fuck Britain it’s evil”. And that’s it

    They won’t achieve anything. So what is the point of them? There is none. This is the fag end of the fag end of the fag end of a progressive liberal ethos which was born post WW2 and has now driven itself into the dust

    What replaces it?

    A constant reminder that you get so much wrong - You voted for this Government.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,984
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is quite a smart take, though he can't resist the dig at the end.
    Let's hope Mamdani doesn't govern as incompetently,

    There's a Trumpian quality to this election. Everyone pointing out all the ways he's stomped on various sacred taboos and his voters not caring one wink about that, and actually finding it funny people are mad about that. A trolling quality to it all, but since it comes from left not right, it's wrapped in a veneer of smart condescending rather than mocking anger..
    https://x.com/Chris_arnade/status/1937120320776786213

    Mamdani also trades in similar promises without any explanation grounded in hard economics.
    Chicken over rice now costs $10 or more.

    It's time to make halal eight bucks again.

    https://x.com/ZohranKMamdani/status/1878853557111414795

    There’s a fight fire with fire quality to it all, and the US instinct to love a winner is kicking in. Even that useless centrist wibbler Schumer now loves Zohran.
    I believe Cuomo is threatening to run as an independent. Let it go, Andy.
    The most significant thing about it isn't so much his politics - in fact I suspect he won despite his politics - it's the unmistakeable rejection of the old guard. Cuomo was endorsed by a large herd of the Democratic establishment.
    +This. The existing Democratic aristocracy are old and frightened, running from the arguments and valuing nothing but their own safety.
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