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Ipsos brings bad news for Starmer – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,536

    Scott_xP said:

    @stevenmazie.bsky.social‬

    BREAKING: the Supreme Court *grants* the Trump administration's emergency plea in DHS v. D.V.D. to resume deporting non-citizens to third countries. Justices Sotomayor, Kagan and Jackson dissent at length. The majority cites no reasons for granting the government's request.

    That is really quite concerning for the future.
    The injunction is lifted, but the case is still to be decided at a the appeals court.

    But you're right, the majority seem to have adopted a shrug and ignore stance towards any damage illegal actions by the executive might cause.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,921
    If I have my cynical head on, this Iranian War launched NOW is another tactic by Trump to distract from his collapsing domestic politics - even fox had bad polls for him on eg the economy.

    I'll predict that his next distraction will be sending the military into large Democrat run cities like NY, Philadelphia and Chicago.

    The Courts (9th Circuit, Appeals Panel of 3 Judges) have essentially given him the leeway.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,434
    Starmer: 5% on defence by 2035 says Nick Watt on Newsnight
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,361
    AIUI, there is a peaceful use for that 60 percent enriched uranium the Mullahs have: The Natrium reactor that Bill Gates is backing will use uranium enriched to a higher level than that used in current US nuclear plants. Designers were planning to buy former weapons grade uranium from the Russians, but would, it seems likely, be willing to buy it from the Mullahs instead, or as well. (Or from the Israelis, if they capture it.)
    https://www.terrapower.com/
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,030
    ...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,434
    Labour select committee depth charge amendment on DWP now has 90 signatures says Guardian.

    Kendall is in shit here.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,843
    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1937270682381173050

    CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, "THE 12 DAY WAR." This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn't, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!

    DONALD J. TRUMP,
    PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,956
    MattW said:

    If I have my cynical head on, this Iranian War launched NOW is another tactic by Trump to distract from his collapsing domestic politics - even fox had bad polls for him on eg the economy.

    I'll predict that his next distraction will be sending the military into large Democrat run cities like NY, Philadelphia and Chicago.

    The Courts (9th Circuit, Appeals Panel of 3 Judges) have essentially given him the leeway.

    There's always Greenland.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,525

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1937270682381173050

    CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, "THE 12 DAY WAR." This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn't, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!

    DONALD J. TRUMP,
    PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

    That is unreadable gobbledygook.

    Perhaps you might like to translate.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,219

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1937270682381173050

    CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, "THE 12 DAY WAR." This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn't, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!

    DONALD J. TRUMP,
    PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

    Orcas are wearing salmon as hats again.

    https://www.livescience.com/animals/orcas/orcas-start-wearing-dead-salmon-hats-again-after-ditching-the-trend-for-37-years?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR6vZMq0OgDSZOJVH2MBSuYnvWLlm8n6ah0ghpoDq324R05DLCrF0WmHxrCn-g_aem_Z2s6S3mTpJhyp8Fwh03-5A
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,434
    Paging @Leon

    Andrew Neil
    @afneil
    ·
    2h
    I write from Paris. On a glorious June night. It is still the most beautiful city in the world.

    https://x.com/afneil/status/1937236219756191934
  • Scott_xP said:

    glw said:


    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    ·
    20m
    According to
    @BarakRavid
    of Axios, “A White House official told me that Trump's goal now is to end the war and he is going to make it clear to Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “We want a deal and don't want any more war,” the official said”

    Peace.
    Attack.
    Regime change?
    End the war.

    All in about 4-5 days. Does anyone think this guy is well? Or that this nonsense makes any sense at all?
    He started a war to distract from bad headlines. Now he needs to end the same war to distract from bad headlines...
    "Wag the Dog" explains a lot..😏
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,843

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1937270682381173050

    CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, "THE 12 DAY WAR." This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn't, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!

    DONALD J. TRUMP,
    PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

    That is unreadable gobbledygook.

    Perhaps you might like to translate.
    The Nobel peace prize for bombing Iran is nailed on.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,434

    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    37m
    As
    @tamcohen
    reports tonight the reasoned amendment is backed by 100 MPs - enough to defeat govt - and 13 select committee chairs (heavyweight backbenchers). This a major rebellion that could kill the bill unless serious concessions - which govt’s said it’s not prepared to make…
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,934
    I just asked CoPilot this question

    "Can you rewrite the essay in https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/04/27/hyperliberalism/ in the manner of Adam Curtis?"

    I won't detain you with the output, but it was quite good :(
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,826
    viewcode said:

    I just asked CoPilot this question

    "Can you rewrite the essay in https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/04/27/hyperliberalism/ in the manner of Adam Curtis?"

    I won't detain you with the output, but it was quite good :(

    Have you watched Shifty? I haven't but I'm looking forward to it.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,287

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1937270682381173050

    CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, "THE 12 DAY WAR." This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn't, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!

    DONALD J. TRUMP,
    PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

    What a hilarious nutter Trump is, at times.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,589


    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    37m
    As
    @tamcohen
    reports tonight the reasoned amendment is backed by 100 MPs - enough to defeat govt - and 13 select committee chairs (heavyweight backbenchers). This a major rebellion that could kill the bill unless serious concessions - which govt’s said it’s not prepared to make…

    The problems for Blair started when his large parliamentary majority began to regularly rebel. It took about 6 years for Blair to get to that point. For Starmer, it’s happened in 1.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,842
    I can't keep up....its regime change when I go for dinner, I come back from dinner and its ceasefire all round.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,354


    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    37m
    As
    @tamcohen
    reports tonight the reasoned amendment is backed by 100 MPs - enough to defeat govt - and 13 select committee chairs (heavyweight backbenchers). This a major rebellion that could kill the bill unless serious concessions - which govt’s said it’s not prepared to make…

    The problems for Blair started when his large parliamentary majority began to regularly rebel. It took about 6 years for Blair to get to that point. For Starmer, it’s happened in 1.
    It’s hardly surprising - as a number of MPs have already pointed out they weren’t elected to take money from their disabled constituents
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,842
    edited June 23
    Iran has not been presented with any ceasefire proposal and sees no justification for initiating one, a senior Iranian official tells CNN.

    I am dizzy just trying to keep up.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,934
    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    I just asked CoPilot this question

    "Can you rewrite the essay in https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/04/27/hyperliberalism/ in the manner of Adam Curtis?"

    I won't detain you with the output, but it was quite good :(

    Have you watched Shifty? I haven't but I'm looking forward to it.
    I can't. Most of the time when I "watch" things, I'm actually listening to them. I haven't got a television and so have YouTubes on one tab when I'm working in another - for example I'm listening to this right now. But "Shifty" doesn't have a voiceover, so I'm kind of buggered. I can substitute things like this or this but it's not the same.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,589

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1937270682381173050

    CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, "THE 12 DAY WAR." This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn't, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!

    DONALD J. TRUMP,
    PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

    Im sad that I wasn’t thanked for my attention to this matter.

    In all seriousness, IF it holds, on the face of it it appears to be a bit of a coup for Trump. Whether it’ll be seen as the right or wrong decision, that one will be for history to judge in the fullness of time.
  • vikvik Posts: 543
    Hmmmm .... neither the Iranians nor the Israelis are willing to confirm Trump's comment about a ceasefire.

    A spokesperson for the Israeli military declined to comment on Trump’s statement about a cease-fire.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/23/world/iran-trump-israel-news/a698c6f2-df2b-5c6e-96e0-71598097fe9c?smid=url-share
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,589
    vik said:

    Hmmmm .... neither the Iranians nor the Israelis are willing to confirm Trump's comment about a ceasefire.

    A spokesperson for the Israeli military declined to comment on Trump’s statement about a cease-fire.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/23/world/iran-trump-israel-news/a698c6f2-df2b-5c6e-96e0-71598097fe9c?smid=url-share

    I was saying? Lol
  • vikvik Posts: 543

    I can't keep up....its regime change when I go for dinner, I come back from dinner and its ceasefire all round.

    He started off by demanding "Unconditional Surrender"
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,934

    Starmer: 5% on defence by 2035 says Nick Watt on Newsnight

    Judging from the rate of building ships and various politician speeches, the invasion of Taiwan is scheduled for 2027/8. So he'll be late.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,921
    vik said:

    I can't keep up....its regime change when I go for dinner, I come back from dinner and its ceasefire all round.

    He started off by demanding "Unconditional Surrender"
    Um no. In the current cycle eh started by allowing / launching a war whilst he was saying that there were 2 weeks for negotiations.

    Just your mad uncle who has escaped from the mental hospital and is wandering the streets arguing with lamp posts.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,842
    edited June 23
    Given that neither its methods nor its targets are unprecedented, a ban is likely to make every group which has an aim of “progressing its political cause and influencing the government” through protest think twice.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/23/ban-on-palestine-action-would-have-chilling-effect-on-other-protest-groups

    How about just protesting without breaking into businesses and military bases and causing £10m's of damage.

    I can't stand JSO twattish behaviour (and they lost the public pretty quickly) and should be punished when they break the law, but nobody is calling for them to be proscribed as a terrorist organisation for throwing orange powder in the air at a sporting event. Instead they rightly get booed and they worked out that this form of protest wasn't aiding their cause.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,843
    MattW said:

    vik said:

    I can't keep up....its regime change when I go for dinner, I come back from dinner and its ceasefire all round.

    He started off by demanding "Unconditional Surrender"
    Um no. In the current cycle eh started by allowing / launching a war whilst he was saying that there were 2 weeks for negotiations.

    Just your mad uncle who has escaped from the mental hospital and is wandering the streets arguing with lamp posts.
    Apparently the Al Udeid Air Base had already been evacuated by the 17th, so this whole thing was quite well planned.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,380
    eek said:


    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    37m
    As
    @tamcohen
    reports tonight the reasoned amendment is backed by 100 MPs - enough to defeat govt - and 13 select committee chairs (heavyweight backbenchers). This a major rebellion that could kill the bill unless serious concessions - which govt’s said it’s not prepared to make…

    The problems for Blair started when his large parliamentary majority began to regularly rebel. It took about 6 years for Blair to get to that point. For Starmer, it’s happened in 1.
    It’s hardly surprising - as a number of MPs have already pointed out they weren’t elected to take money from their disabled constituents
    Refraining from giving is not taking. I mean, politically it is. But not really.
  • vikvik Posts: 543
    carnforth said:

    eek said:


    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    37m
    As
    @tamcohen
    reports tonight the reasoned amendment is backed by 100 MPs - enough to defeat govt - and 13 select committee chairs (heavyweight backbenchers). This a major rebellion that could kill the bill unless serious concessions - which govt’s said it’s not prepared to make…

    The problems for Blair started when his large parliamentary majority began to regularly rebel. It took about 6 years for Blair to get to that point. For Starmer, it’s happened in 1.
    It’s hardly surprising - as a number of MPs have already pointed out they weren’t elected to take money from their disabled constituents
    Refraining from giving is not taking. I mean, politically it is. But not really.
    Imagine if Reform win the next election, and then a few months later PM Nigel Farage suddenly announces that he now thinks Britain urgently needs migration & he's going to bring in a bill to allow 1 million Indians to migrate to the UK.

    How do you imagine Reform MP's would react ?

    Cutting disability benefits is against Labour values, in the same way that expanding migration would be against Reform values.

    If a Labour PM brings in legislation that is against Labour values, then a major rebellion would be expected.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,408
    The Iranians have been passed a note on a ceasefire plan.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,287
    It's time for bed.

    All partiea have agreed to go to bed soon. It's time for sleep ! Thank-you for your attention in this matter.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 749

    It's time for bed.

    All partiea have agreed to go to bed soon. It's time for sleep ! Thank-you for your attention in this matter.

    TOTAL and COMPLETE sleep.

    Good night and God bless!
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,408
    It apopears Israeli sources are less responsive on this ceasefire plan than Iranian ones but they do know about it
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,185
    TimS said:

    One of the most remarkable headlines of this weird new world order we live in:

    “Oil prices crash after Iran strikes US bases”.

    Imagine reading that one out to a journalist in the early 1980s.

    But they are going for a few face-saving missiles thatget shot down, rather than going for closing the Straits of Hormuz.

    The Mullahs have wimped out.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,185
    Yokes said:

    The Iranians have been passed a note on a ceasefire plan.

    Was that it? WW3?

    Is that all there is? Is that all there is? Is that all there is my friend? Then let's keep dancing....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,185


    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    37m
    As
    @tamcohen
    reports tonight the reasoned amendment is backed by 100 MPs - enough to defeat govt - and 13 select committee chairs (heavyweight backbenchers). This a major rebellion that could kill the bill unless serious concessions - which govt’s said it’s not prepared to make…

    The problems for Blair started when his large parliamentary majority began to regularly rebel. It took about 6 years for Blair to get to that point. For Starmer, it’s happened in 1.
    The problems for Blair started when he got carried off to war in Dubya's lower colon...
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 24,930

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1937270682381173050

    CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, "THE 12 DAY WAR." This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn't, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!

    DONALD J. TRUMP,
    PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

    Boring.

    Not going to keep the ratings up with that yawn-fest.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,842

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1937270682381173050

    CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, "THE 12 DAY WAR." This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn't, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!

    DONALD J. TRUMP,
    PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

    Boring.

    Not going to keep the ratings up with that yawn-fest.
    Even hit tv shows can have the odd "holding" episode.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,811

    I can't keep up....its regime change when I go for dinner, I come back from dinner and its ceasefire all round.

    The Labour Party?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,388
    Yokes said:

    It apopears Israeli sources are less responsive on this ceasefire plan than Iranian ones but they do know about it

    So did Trump unilaterally announce a ceasefire without bothering to get the official agreement of either Israel or Iran?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,388
    edited 12:25AM
    X
    OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical
    A series of massive explosions are ongoing in Tehran, Iran, as the Israeli Air Force hits targets in the city.
    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1937269722539557062

    OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical
    Iranian media outlet Fars confirms numerous explosions in Tehran.
    https://t.me/farsna/379085
    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1937270568899801114

    Edit
    OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical
    Israel issues two new evacuation orders in Iran’s capital, Tehran, as more airstrikes are expected.
    Evac orders are in the Mehran district and District 6.
    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1937280034118443362
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,408
    fitalass said:

    Yokes said:

    It apopears Israeli sources are less responsive on this ceasefire plan than Iranian ones but they do know about it

    So did Trump unilaterally announce a ceasefire without bothering to get the official agreement of either Israel or Iran?
    Yes and no, there was back and forth, Qatar to Iran, US to Israel so a proposal was in the works ok.

    The Israelis have been told to say nothing right now, the Iranians are reporting its feasible, at least some are but the debate is as per my comment way down thread, why would the Iranians want to be seen to dancing to Israel's tune? Israel attacked first, Iran sees itself as the aggrieved party. The Iranians need a break and have been searching for one since about 3 days in but don't want to be seen as being dictated to, so the sequencing needs to be right to keep a lid on those who dont want a ceasefire yet..

    Also, accidentally or by design, Trump is suggesting a formal war end between two states. Hows that work when one of them literally doesnt recognise the other?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,388
    Yokes said:

    fitalass said:

    Yokes said:

    It apopears Israeli sources are less responsive on this ceasefire plan than Iranian ones but they do know about it

    So did Trump unilaterally announce a ceasefire without bothering to get the official agreement of either Israel or Iran?
    Yes and no, there was back and forth, Qatar to Iran, US to Israel so a proposal was in the works ok.

    The Israelis have been told to say nothing right now, the Iranians are reporting its feasible, at least some are but the debate is as per my comment way down thread, why would the Iranians want to be seen to dancing to Israel's tune? Israel attacked first, Iran sees itself as the aggrieved party. The Iranians need a break and have been searching for one since about 3 days in but don't want to be seen as being dictated to, so the sequencing needs to be right to keep a lid on those who dont want a ceasefire yet..

    Also, accidentally or by design, Trump is suggesting a formal war end between two states. Hows that work when one of them literally doesnt recognise the other?
    Many thanks Yokes. Seeing reports of current ongoing Israel airstrikes of key IRGC targets in Iran right now just as two Iranian registered planes are arriving in Tehran from China?
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,408
    right, so we either have a ceasefire or we dont, its due to kick in now

    An Iranian news agency is reporting no such proposal has been accepted.

    This may be all talk but Iran will want to be seen as firing the last shots, if there is one coming or it really intends to reject it
  • vikvik Posts: 543
    edited 12:36AM
    Yokes said:

    fitalass said:

    Yokes said:

    It apopears Israeli sources are less responsive on this ceasefire plan than Iranian ones but they do know about it

    So did Trump unilaterally announce a ceasefire without bothering to get the official agreement of either Israel or Iran?
    Yes and no, there was back and forth, Qatar to Iran, US to Israel so a proposal was in the works ok.

    The Israelis have been told to say nothing right now, the Iranians are reporting its feasible, at least some are but the debate is as per my comment way down thread, why would the Iranians want to be seen to dancing to Israel's tune? Israel attacked first, Iran sees itself as the aggrieved party. The Iranians need a break and have been searching for one since about 3 days in but don't want to be seen as being dictated to, so the sequencing needs to be right to keep a lid on those who dont want a ceasefire yet..

    Also, accidentally or by design, Trump is suggesting a formal war end between two states. Hows that work when one of them literally doesnt recognise the other?
    It's entirely possible that by blabbing about it, Trump might have gravely imperiled his own ceasefire agreement. The fool really has no clue how delicately these things need to be managed.

    You are absolutely correct that Iran simply cannot accept a situation where it appears that they have agreed to a humiliating ceasefire that has been forced on them by a US President.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,934
    ScarJo has an English accent. It's not bad

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3o17SMmG7Js
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,408
    edited 12:51AM
    vik said:

    Yokes said:

    fitalass said:

    Yokes said:

    It apopears Israeli sources are less responsive on this ceasefire plan than Iranian ones but they do know about it

    So did Trump unilaterally announce a ceasefire without bothering to get the official agreement of either Israel or Iran?
    Yes and no, there was back and forth, Qatar to Iran, US to Israel so a proposal was in the works ok.

    The Israelis have been told to say nothing right now, the Iranians are reporting its feasible, at least some are but the debate is as per my comment way down thread, why would the Iranians want to be seen to dancing to Israel's tune? Israel attacked first, Iran sees itself as the aggrieved party. The Iranians need a break and have been searching for one since about 3 days in but don't want to be seen as being dictated to, so the sequencing needs to be right to keep a lid on those who dont want a ceasefire yet..

    Also, accidentally or by design, Trump is suggesting a formal war end between two states. Hows that work when one of them literally doesnt recognise the other?
    It's entirely possible that by blabbing about it, Trump might have gravely imperiled his own ceasefire agreement. The fool really has no clue how delicately these things need to be managed.

    You are absolutely correct that Iran simply cannot accept a situation where it appears that they have agreed to a humiliating ceasefire that has been forced on them by a US President.
    You may not have to formally accept anything if the shooting just kinda stops. The iranians have been indicating for days in the backchannel that if Israel stops first, so will they shortly after. Again, sequencing matters if they have decided to accept, without officially accepting
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,408
    Irans FM offcial statement is they havent accepted any ceasefire or cessation but if Israel knocks it off, Iran doesnt intend to keep at it for now.

    Seems the below idea was bang on.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,388
    Yokes said:

    Irans FM offcial statement is they havent accepted any ceasefire or cessation but if Israel knocks it off, Iran doesnt intend to keep at it for now.

    Seems the below idea was bang on.

    X
    OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical
    Israel’s airstrikes have massively disrupted Iranian government operations.

    I would not be surprised if most of the disjointed statements seen in the media by Iranian officials (ceasefire/no ceasefire, strikes/no strikes), are because those officials don’t know what’s going on.
    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1937284654073315516

    OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical
    A reminder: Iran’s Supreme Leader is literally sitting in a bunker under Tehran and won’t talk to anyone on a phone right now.

    He appears to be using a single digit number (possibly just one) of couriers to physically transmit information because he fears an Israeli airstrike.
    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1937285629123133474
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,842
    edited 1:18AM
    fitalass said:

    Yokes said:

    Irans FM offcial statement is they havent accepted any ceasefire or cessation but if Israel knocks it off, Iran doesnt intend to keep at it for now.

    Seems the below idea was bang on.

    X
    OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical
    Israel’s airstrikes have massively disrupted Iranian government operations.

    I would not be surprised if most of the disjointed statements seen in the media by Iranian officials (ceasefire/no ceasefire, strikes/no strikes), are because those officials don’t know what’s going on.
    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1937284654073315516

    OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical
    A reminder: Iran’s Supreme Leader is literally sitting in a bunker under Tehran and won’t talk to anyone on a phone right now.

    He appears to be using a single digit number (possibly just one) of couriers to physically transmit information because he fears an Israeli airstrike.
    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1937285629123133474
    I imagine they are also very worried about how far up the chain Mossad have infiltrated.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,536
    MattW said:

    If I have my cynical head on, this Iranian War launched NOW is another tactic by Trump to distract from his collapsing domestic politics - even fox had bad polls for him on eg the economy.

    I'll predict that his next distraction will be sending the military into large Democrat run cities like NY, Philadelphia and Chicago.

    The Courts (9th Circuit, Appeals Panel of 3 Judges) have essentially given him the leeway.

    That isn't a distraction; that's part if a plan

    The next part - which may well get passed by the GOP Congress, is the $150bn in funding for ICE, which is becoming indistinguishable from a paramilitary.

    It's not vanishingly unlikely that the polls won't matter by Nov 2026.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,536
    Glad we cleared this up.

    Q: "Do you know for sure where all the highly enriched uranium is?"

    Vance: "Well, I think that's actually not the question before us...Uranium is something that exists in a very large supply. I think our main goal was to bury the uranium and I do think the uranium was buried."

    https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/1937273479318909153
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,536
    Yokes said:

    Irans FM offcial statement is they havent accepted any ceasefire or cessation but if Israel knocks it off, Iran doesnt intend to keep at it for now.

    Seems the below idea was bang on.

    "From conversations I have had with official Israeli officials in the last hour: We are indeed approaching a ceasefire with Iran, but we need to get through the night peacefully as the fairly powerful Israeli attacks on Iran are currently taking place and there is a possibility of heavy barrages towards Israel tonight."

    Read that a couple times.

    https://x.com/vcdgf555/status/1937305779402604579
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,536
    edited 2:28AM
    It was the best ceasefire.

    Israel-Iran ceasefire lasted about an hour.

    Iranian ballistic missiles reportedly launched towards Israel in the last few minutes.

    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1937332266495279406


    Or perhaps Israel will allow them to have the last futile barrage ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,536
    Coming to the UK within a very few years.

    "I drive an electric vehicle because I am poor," says Lu Yunfeng, a private driver, at a charging station on the outskirts of Guangzhou in the south of China

    Standing nearby, Sun Jingguo agrees.
    "The cost of driving a petrol car is too expensive.
    I save money driving electric"

    https://x.com/electricfelix/status/1937110077837820406
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,031
    *wakes up*

    No WWIII, woo!!!

    *goes back to lurking*
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,388
    X
    OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical
    Israel-Iran ceasefire lasted about an hour.

    Iranian ballistic missiles reportedly launched towards Israel in the last few minutes.
    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1937332266495279406

    OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical
    IDF confirmation
    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1937332414327718186

    Israel Defense Forces@IDF
    🚨Sirens sounding in Israel due to a missile launch from Iran🚨
    https://x.com/IDF/status/1937333438068989993
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,388
    Nigelb said:

    It was the best ceasefire.

    Israel-Iran ceasefire lasted about an hour.

    Iranian ballistic missiles reportedly launched towards Israel in the last few minutes.

    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1937332266495279406


    Or perhaps Israel will allow them to have the last futile barrage ?

    Either that or the Israelis have really done something to upset Iranian Regime in the last few hours leading up to the short lived ceasefire or maybe its a distraction? Another plane heading to Tehran, this time from Delhi.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,656

    fitalass said:

    Yokes said:

    Irans FM offcial statement is they havent accepted any ceasefire or cessation but if Israel knocks it off, Iran doesnt intend to keep at it for now.

    Seems the below idea was bang on.

    X
    OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical
    Israel’s airstrikes have massively disrupted Iranian government operations.

    I would not be surprised if most of the disjointed statements seen in the media by Iranian officials (ceasefire/no ceasefire, strikes/no strikes), are because those officials don’t know what’s going on.
    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1937284654073315516

    OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical
    A reminder: Iran’s Supreme Leader is literally sitting in a bunker under Tehran and won’t talk to anyone on a phone right now.

    He appears to be using a single digit number (possibly just one) of couriers to physically transmit information because he fears an Israeli airstrike.
    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1937285629123133474
    I imagine they are also very worried about how far up the chain Mossad have infiltrated.
    I'd say it's a legitimate worry !
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,758
    vik said:

    Yokes said:

    fitalass said:

    Yokes said:

    It apopears Israeli sources are less responsive on this ceasefire plan than Iranian ones but they do know about it

    So did Trump unilaterally announce a ceasefire without bothering to get the official agreement of either Israel or Iran?
    Yes and no, there was back and forth, Qatar to Iran, US to Israel so a proposal was in the works ok.

    The Israelis have been told to say nothing right now, the Iranians are reporting its feasible, at least some are but the debate is as per my comment way down thread, why would the Iranians want to be seen to dancing to Israel's tune? Israel attacked first, Iran sees itself as the aggrieved party. The Iranians need a break and have been searching for one since about 3 days in but don't want to be seen as being dictated to, so the sequencing needs to be right to keep a lid on those who dont want a ceasefire yet..

    Also, accidentally or by design, Trump is suggesting a formal war end between two states. Hows that work when one of them literally doesnt recognise the other?
    It's entirely possible that by blabbing about it, Trump might have gravely imperiled his own ceasefire agreement. The fool really has no clue how delicately these things need to be managed.

    You are absolutely correct that Iran simply cannot accept a situation where it appears that they have agreed to a humiliating ceasefire that has been forced on them by a US President.
    A long time since our government was away negotiating with the IRA while denying any contact or intention to do so. A different era.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 994


    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    ·
    20m
    According to
    @BarakRavid
    of Axios, “A White House official told me that Trump's goal now is to end the war and he is going to make it clear to Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “We want a deal and don't want any more war,” the official said”

    "Senior Israeli defense officials told an Israeli Army Radio correspondent on June 23 that Israel will increase strikes on Iran in the coming days in order to rapidly achieve its war aims"

    Source: IOW
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 994

    glw said:


    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    ·
    20m
    According to
    @BarakRavid
    of Axios, “A White House official told me that Trump's goal now is to end the war and he is going to make it clear to Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “We want a deal and don't want any more war,” the official said”

    Peace.
    Attack.
    Regime change?
    End the war.

    All in about 4-5 days. Does anyone think this guy is well? Or that this nonsense makes any sense at all?
    Ending the war makes no sense whatsoever!

    The very minimum "deal" should be that Iran agrees to abolish all nuclear pretensions, everything that remains is demolished under IAEA supervision, the enriched uranium is accounted for and transferred to someone else.

    The maximum should be the above plus regime change.
    You should write and make it clear you are not happy.

    Address: 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Washington, D.C. 20500 U.S.

    Mark it for the attention of: Donald Trump, President of the United States.

    Make sure they know your return address so he can thank you personally.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,087
    Nigelb said:

    Yokes said:

    Irans FM offcial statement is they havent accepted any ceasefire or cessation but if Israel knocks it off, Iran doesnt intend to keep at it for now.

    Seems the below idea was bang on.

    "From conversations I have had with official Israeli officials in the last hour: We are indeed approaching a ceasefire with Iran, but we need to get through the night peacefully as the fairly powerful Israeli attacks on Iran are currently taking place and there is a possibility of heavy barrages towards Israel tonight."

    Read that a couple times.

    https://x.com/vcdgf555/status/1937305779402604579
    I wish there was a ceasefire in the war of attrition on language and meaning.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,805
    It's rather nice having an American President who would like there to be peace.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,625

    Nigelb said:

    Yokes said:

    Irans FM offcial statement is they havent accepted any ceasefire or cessation but if Israel knocks it off, Iran doesnt intend to keep at it for now.

    Seems the below idea was bang on.

    "From conversations I have had with official Israeli officials in the last hour: We are indeed approaching a ceasefire with Iran, but we need to get through the night peacefully as the fairly powerful Israeli attacks on Iran are currently taking place and there is a possibility of heavy barrages towards Israel tonight."

    Read that a couple times.

    https://x.com/vcdgf555/status/1937305779402604579
    I wish there was a ceasefire in the war of attrition on language and meaning.
    "War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.”

    The use of dystopian novels as how to manuals is an affliction of our age.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,644

    It's rather nice having an American President who would like there to be peace.

    Everybody barring a few psychotics would always like there to be peace.

    But a peace on their terms.

    So we have a whole bunch of wars.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,268
    viewcode said:

    ScarJo has an English accent. It's not bad

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3o17SMmG7Js

    Looks like jolly good fun although a 2-year delay in release suggests otherwise.
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,211
    Battlebus said:

    glw said:


    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    ·
    20m
    According to
    @BarakRavid
    of Axios, “A White House official told me that Trump's goal now is to end the war and he is going to make it clear to Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “We want a deal and don't want any more war,” the official said”

    Peace.
    Attack.
    Regime change?
    End the war.

    All in about 4-5 days. Does anyone think this guy is well? Or that this nonsense makes any sense at all?
    Ending the war makes no sense whatsoever!

    The very minimum "deal" should be that Iran agrees to abolish all nuclear pretensions, everything that remains is demolished under IAEA supervision, the enriched uranium is accounted for and transferred to someone else.

    The maximum should be the above plus regime change.
    You should write and make it clear you are not happy.

    Address: 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Washington, D.C. 20500 U.S.

    Mark it for the attention of: Donald Trump, President of the United States.

    Make sure they know your return address so he can thank you personally.
    Or just include a self addressed envelope like they used to in the days of TV write in competitions.
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,211

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1937270682381173050

    CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, "THE 12 DAY WAR." This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn't, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!

    DONALD J. TRUMP,
    PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

    Boring.

    Not going to keep the ratings up with that yawn-fest.
    Even hit tv shows can have the odd "holding" episode.
    Or a ‘clips’ episode where they just cobble clips from previous episodes while ‘reminiscing’

    Gerry Anderson used to do it with most of his series.
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,211
    Israel has reopened its airspace to inbound flights.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,268
    Rare rabies-like virus found in island bat
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c15w31dwx9eo

    Cue Leon searching Google maps for a Chinese laboratory on the Isle of Wight (dog for scale).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,842

    Rare rabies-like virus found in island bat
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c15w31dwx9eo

    Cue Leon searching Google maps for a Chinese laboratory on the Isle of Wight (dog for scale).

    Don't panic Captain Mainwaring...Don't panic....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,432

    NEW THREAD

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,934
    Taz said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1937270682381173050

    CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, "THE 12 DAY WAR." This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn't, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!

    DONALD J. TRUMP,
    PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

    Boring.

    Not going to keep the ratings up with that yawn-fest.
    Even hit tv shows can have the odd "holding" episode.
    Or a ‘clips’ episode where they just cobble clips from previous episodes while ‘reminiscing’

    Gerry Anderson used to do it with most of his series.
    https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ClipShow
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