The Sunday open thread. How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb – politicalbetting.com
The Sunday open thread. How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb – politicalbetting.com
BREAKING: US warplanes strike three nuclear sites as Iran warns of 'everlasting' consequenceshttps://t.co/jgiL65MlYE
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https://bsky.app/profile/cjterry.bsky.social/post/3ls6jf36e6c2a
Well done to Bibi for having the gumption to do it too.
The bread and butter of the business is Falcon 9 - where launch and land is so routine that it's boring. Cost of launching satellites reduced vastly.
Then we have Starship. Launching and catching Superheavy is reality - and that booster is already hugely powerful and can get bigger. And Starship - which will launch satellites like sweeties never mind the interplanetary stuff - has a problematic v2 which is about to be replaced by v3.
SpaceX do things the established industry said is impossible. And make them routine. SS v2 keeps going bang. And will get scrapped completely. The concept works fine, and they are designing the thing on the fly.
In the immortal words of Nigel Tufnel, "none"
For all of the bluster, Trump is frit.
Have they destroyed the enriched material? Iran says they already moved it.
Have they destroyed the programme? Iran says "You can't bomb knowledge"
Sadly, inaction can also lead to very bad results.
I don't think yesterday's actions were particularly helpful. But I don't want Iran to have nuclear weapons, and inaction was leading us to sleepwalk into that position.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/04/04/the-british-trump-the-similarities-between-the-president-and-the-leader-of-the-opposition/
All tyrannical regimes will do what they can to push their boundaries when they can - literally in Russia's case - unless put back in ther box with a painful smackdown. Opportunities have been missed to do this to RUssia, North Korea and Iran.
The UN is clearly now pointless. It is certainly time for a new format - without veto rights - that the democratic world can sign up to. We must rob these deeply unpleasant regimes of the get out "well, the UN didn't stop us...".
If they get rebuilt, you can destroy them again.
Knowledge without facilities is a bit of a void.
The killers of knowledge, very on brand for the Trump-Netanyahu duopoly.
I believe he's also in favour of imposing regime change, which the administration has shied away from.
He certainly has little regard for collateral damage (see also Iraq and Gaza).
It will be a while before we know how this plays out, of course.
* Maybe there remains some wisdom in safety first, but maybe not.
Jonathan Reynolds on Sky confirmed the government were informed of the plans by the US
I would just add that trying to exempt the UK from any adverse consequences of last night's operation ignores that Iran, and its allies, perceive all western nations as enemies to their interests and as such we are very much less safe this morning
A point is all that you can score
Score no more! Score no more!
When two tribes go to war
A point is all that you can score
Working for the black gas
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pO1HC8pHZw0&t=10s
This looks and sounds like a very frightened man.
https://bsky.app/profile/ellenbraaten.bsky.social/post/3ls5ysjtibk2n
Iran did not get to 60% enrichment overnight, it would have been better to act sooner.
Its the same as we routinely see in politics - the best time to act was yesterday, the second best time is today.
Not terribly surprised by the morning's news. One can argue it's a good argument for non-proliferation but I don't recall American planes bombing Indian, Pakistani and North Korean let alone Israeli nuclear production facilities.
I suppose it comes down to the truth you have to be a particular class of lunatic to be afforded the privilege of being denied nuclear weapons by force.
I'm musing more on the domestic political impact. While the pro-Palestine groups continue to agitate in parts of the country (my part of London as an example), I've not yet seen a big upswing in activity directly resulting from the conflict between Israel and Iran - that might change with the overt US intervention.
It will continue to perpetuate the other current schism in UK politics - not the one on the so-called "Right" but the one on the so-called "Left" between Labour and a coalition of young Muslim voters and former pro-Corbyn supporters. The latter are more interesting at a local level as they have been campaigning strongly and effectively on the failings of London Labour Councils and may well capture a number of seats at the next London locals next year.
https://bsky.app/profile/gtconway.bsky.social/post/3ls6bibppok24
On nuclear matters, the Iranians have been lying scumbags. Anyone who thought they were going to honour it was a dupe. There is no good nature to appeal to when a theocracy states its intention on a daily basis to wipe a nation off the face of the earth.
(That assumes a capacity in him which probably doesn't exist, but still.)
It's reasonably likely that the regime, while wanting nuclear capacity, didn't actually want nuclear weapons - Khamenei seems ideologically opposed to them for religious reasons.
A bargain which normalised relations might have been possible; and containing their nuclear program much more so.
A substantial proportion consider Israel an ally but would strongly oppose us even defending them, let alone attacking Iran. I appreciate there are bigger concerns but Starmer is in a tricky spot.
Remarkable that this has happened with barely a whimper of resistance. I can only conclude that if this stays as a one night US campaign, it will be quite a popular act.
That enriched serves no other purpose.
Lots of intelligence sources say Iran had no imminent weapon capability. Bibi has been lying about that for decades
He finally found a patsy dumb enough to do his dirty work
I have no love for the Iranian regime, but only Trump/Bibi could make then seem like sympathetic figures in this
Today makes me very sad; I wouldn't defend the regime in Iran for a second, but it presides over one of the globe's oldest and richest cultures and I fear today will only entrench the divide between that culture and the West. We can only hope that the US action causes the Mullahs to back down and they then experience regime change from within, rather than imposed from without, which is likely to make things worse, not better. More likely, though, the USA holds back from regime change and we just leave the Mullahs with more of a stranglehold over power.
That's not even to mention the unintended consequences of upsetting the balance of power in the middle east.
I would feel a lot better if the regime that had just violated the sovereignty of another state by an unprovoked bombing raid had been a respecter of the rule of law and democractic norms that we are supposedly trying to spread aroundt the world.
The lesson here is that signing up to the non proliferation treaty opens you up to being bombed.
Nations are much more likely now to do deals with (eg) Pakistan on the QT.
Any "intelligence sources" that say they had no capacity, like Tulsi Gabbard, were even bigger fools.
Just why do you think that Iran got to 60% enrichment if not for weapons?
Or more likely, do you not think?
Time will tell if it was the right decision.
I think we have to be braced for another economic shock. The chances of the regime not responding have to be small, and the easiest levers open to them are economic - I.e stopping the shipping.
Trump, inauguration speech, January 20, 2025:
“We will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end - and, perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.”
*standing ovation*
https://bsky.app/profile/newseye.bsky.social/post/3ls6dfckzec27
Even before last night we had the left on manoeuvres to coalesce around Corbyn over the proposal to prescribe the PLA, a real rebellion over the benefit reductions, and now this
Where this goes for Starmer is highly unpredictable
I was briefed on the intelligence last week.
Iran posed no imminent threat of attack to the United States. Iran was not close to building a deliverable nuclear weapon. The negotiations Israel scuttled with their strikes held the potential for success.
https://bsky.app/profile/chrismurphyct.bsky.social/post/3ls6bsrr3422u
Bearing in mind the trouble Blair got us into over Iraq, I am shocked that Patel and Shapps on behalf of Team Kemi are marching in front of Trump and Bibi.
I don't have any reason to doubt the reporting that Iran are close to a nuclear weapon, but I am extremely wary of an ulterior motive here from Netanyahu and the energetic parroting of this explanation for his attacks. In the run up to the Iraq war there were endless briefings, UN summits, articles and so on. Where has all the concern been over the last two years?
The data backs me up: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 5-y&geo=GB&q=enrichment&hl=en-GB
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 5-y&geo=GB&q=fordow&hl=en-GB
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/08/priti-patel-forced-to-resign-over-unofficial-meetings-with-israelis
Hormuz will be shut or at very least throttled now and things will intensify until Iran collapses or surrenders. US bases will get attacked certainly and Hezbollah might get dragged out of their holes to fire stuff
Which would be worth it if this action was the right one at the right time. I'm not sure it is.
Though I am concerned what comes after it.
Do you support Trump's actions which has been endorsed by Farage this am ?
Which Motörhead album was that track on?
It's reasonably likely they could have built some kind of functional bomb for a few years now.
That they hadn't suggests a degree of hesitance.
(See also, for example, @Malmesbury 's remarks on Japan's nuclear capacity.
Very different context, obviously, but a similar principle.)
In any event, it's all conjecture now.
"Would you support or oppose the United Kingdom helping to defend Israel by assisting in the shooting down of missiles and drones from Iran?" (so even softer than attacking Iran).
Conservative 39 support, 36 oppose
Labour 21, 56
LD 19, 54
Reform 37, 44
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/survey-results/daily/2025/06/17/e69cd/1
Is there greater personal jeopardy here for Starmer than a beer and a curry in Durham during COVID?
The Iranian regime has never acted as an honest party to nuclear non-proliferation. We just have to accept that. Then you either have to accept them having nukes some day soonish. Or stop their ambitions.
Neither choice is without risks. But one may lead to the annihilation of the state of Israel. We pat ourselves on the back for the twentieth century's response to the Nazi plans for the eradication of the Jews. But does that extended to the twenty-first century?
I would have preferred it not to happen but now it has all we can hope is it brings Iran to the negotiationing table
I'm not sure he's right - in my view this should be USA and Israel's war, and we should distance ourselves. Though I can see Trump can probably force our hands to get involved if he wants to.
I sure hope for their sake that the USN learned the lessons of Millennium Challenge 2002.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002
"The biggest problem of all is that Keir Starmer increasingly seems to view his role as not being British Prime Minister at all, so much as some form of glorified global marriage guidance counsellor.
"Which begs a question. Given the recent implosion of his economic policy, his pensions policy, his welfare policy, his immigration policy, his law and order policy, his policy on defence spending, his policy on the **** and half a dozen other major areas, if our Prime Minister is now losing his grip on vital international affairs, what exactly is the point of him?"
And fat chance of negotiations. They were at the table, Trump binned the deal, and now they've been humiliated by Israel. If I were them I'd be pushing as hard as possible for nuke now, and so will all other countries who might have previously negotiated with the US.
‘Well actually..’
‘The Right is split in a different, mysterious way that will not manifest itself.’
Reform and the Conservatives might be congratulating Trump today on his Churchillian genius, as IDS was four square behind Bush in 2003. Although in opposition when that stance becomes inconvenient they can deny they said what they said and no one will remember.
More generally, deeply unpleasant regimes are going to do what they want to do regardless. Any PR figleaves they may pick up along the way are just a bonus for them. When the League of Nations denounced Japan's behaviour in Manchuria, Japan's response was not to admit fault or change its course, but to leave the League. Unless there's a consensus among a group of countries and willingness to act on it then the pieces of paper don't mean very much.
If this leads to prolonged conflict, American casualties, spiking oil prices, then as noted upthread the question is what crisis the Mad King can construct next to distract them
Better late than never though.
The whole world should be glad that Trump did the right thing last night, against his bases wishes.
It is at the very least a much better heuristic than "he's playing 4D chess"
He's a bad guy, doing bad things, covers 98% of his administration to date
https://bsky.app/profile/jeremycliffe.bsky.social/post/3lrulqjaloc2n
That being said, regime change isn't a policy option for me - the Iranians themselves are the only ones who should decide what kind of Government under which they wish to live whether it ber theocracy, democracy or monarchy or some combination of all three.
Iran also has the right to defend itself and we should respect its territorial integrity and independence just as it must respect everyone else's.
How this plays out longer term I don't know - it will harden the resolve of those on the "left" who are opposed to the current incarnation of Labour and will see it as mark 2 Blairism but that politics electorally was pretty successful domestically.