The Challenge for… Reform UK – politicalbetting.com
The Challenge for… Reform UK – politicalbetting.com
This is the third in a series looking at the challenges and opportunities for the 7 main Great Britain parties. Today we will look at the emergence of Reform UK.
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Appropriate for a party that openly declares it's out to Re-Fuk.
The hands remind me more of the Private Eye cover of Enoch Powell saying "some of them have got them this long"
https://www.private-eye.co.uk/covers?showme=182
What we’ve not seen much of yet but will surely grow towards the next election is journalistic speculation about coalitions. They occasionally ask Farage if he’d do a deal with the conservatives (and he says no) but that sort of questioning will become a clamour. A more difficult question for the Tories than Reform as they seek to win back seats in that Bournemouth-Worcester-Cambridge-Brighton zone.
Veritas GAIN Erewash, R Kilroy-Silk elected
Corbyn (I have to say I think he was also a Johnson-style insider posing as an outsider, but that's not really relevant) may have come closer than expected albeit not close, but it's quite unusual and certainly for somebody who will be 65 at the next election.
There's definitely an opportunity for Reform. Several things have to go their way over the next few years, but the possibility is there for them to run the next government.
But it isn't going to happen as long as Reform are just Nigel and some groupies. Top tier electioneering, let alone government, can't depend on just one man, no matter how good he is at broadcast politics.
So is Nigel prepared to share power in order to get real national power? Or is he going to shaft his supporters by remaining a highly-rewarded gadfly?
Most obviously, until the coalition, the LibDems (and Liberals before them) had essentially the same vote share profile across seats as Reform has now. Hence in the elections of 1974 and 1983, despite polling very well, they walked away with just a handful of seats.
This is because, prior to 2010, the LibDems were - directly contrary to what is stated in the lead - seen by many voters as an outsider party; one outside the cycle of two-party power that wanted to change the system. Hence the Liberals and LibDems picked up a significant NOTA vote (remember the old stickers from the '70s: "Don't blame me, I voted Liberal"), and continued to do so after UKIP came along, since the latter focused on the specific issue of the EU. And the NOTA vote is evenly spread.
The LibDems lost its NOTA role upon entering coalition in 2010, and it has never returned - hence the huge number of seats where now only a tiny % of folks vote LibDem. That this endures after more than a decade is notable, and I suggest four possible explanations:
- the LibDems having participated in power and done a deal with a major party lost them their NOTA voters and this perception (that they proved no better than the big two) endures despite a decade back in opposition;
- the realisation that if they do well, the LibDems could team up with one of the big parties makes it easier for their vote to be squeezed between Tory and Labour in seats where they're not in contention;
- Reform has emerged as the new champions of NOTA.
- the core LibDem voter has shifted towards a more educated/middle class/remainery demographic, likely a consequence of Brexit and the Trump/Farage challenge to globalisation etc.
The LibDems have recovered in prominence not by recovering a high nationwide vote share, but by building a solid vote in former Tory seats mostly in the Home Counties, from combining the support of disaffected Tory voters (which was always a significant source of Liberal votes, away from the celtic fringe) and tactical Labour support. That Labour voters are now so willing to back the LibDems suggests that the 'coalition overhang' has faded (the interesting question being why the coalition is apparently forgiven by Labour voters but not by NOTA voters?).
In which case the explanation as to why the seat totals now are so much better for the LDs than back in the 70s and 80s is simply that there are a lot more disaffected Tory voters around nowadays, with the 2024 tally simply being a higher tide mark than Ashdown's achievement around the turn of the century. Which makes the LD seats heavily reliant on the Tories staying down and out for the foreseeable.
Is Paul Verhoeven up to doing a dystopian satire on this? Though since it's now actuality, what would be the point?
https://x.com/mindyisser/status/1935715733725405249
Imagine you have a state owned insurance company providing this (no one else could take the risk).
Then you can use the premium as a signalling device.
“Uh oh! My life insurance premium doubled this year. I had better be careful”
Good morning, everyone.
As for Reform, the main difference is there are people who dislike them intensely. With the Liberals and LDs, yes, there were a few who didn't take to the party but most had no opinion at all so the notion of a tactical vote against the Liberals and Liberal Democrats just wasn't there while for Reform it exists.
The Conservatives can't be the vehicle for that anti-Reform tactical vote if they are seen to be cosying up to Farage - they have to, as the LDs did especially in the 80s and 90s, play the equidistance game and adopt a stance towards Reform which, while not wholly shutting the door on futute co-operation, makes it clear they were competitiors and rivals so no talk of electoral pacts for example.
The other interesting area is policy - successful parties need a distinctive and popular policy to set them apart from their opponents. What will be Reform's USP and how will it stand up to scrutiny? Their economic plans, such as they are, are already widely considered to be incoherent and for all their bluster on immigration, I've yet to hear a detailed and srensible policy - are they in favour of remigration? How would that work?
I imagine Gareth will pick up on the LD-CON battle in his next piece.
BBC News - 'Noses out of joint': Colleagues reveal what Reform's Zia Yusuf is like to work for
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c991epp257lo
If you like your shaggy dog stories scatological, this is your tale.
Updates from https://iran.liveuamap.com/:
5 hours ago: White House has scheduled a National Security Meeting for Sat at 6pm ET at the Oval Office
4 hours ago: B-2 stealth bombers have reportedly taken off from Whiteman Air Force Base, with support from 8 aerial refueling tankers
2 hours ago: 12 U.S. Air Force F-22 stealth fighter jets, supported by KC-135 and KC-46 aerial refueling tankers, have arrived at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan after departing from RAF Lakenheath in the United Kingdom
The government very much lost the 2024 election, the government may well lose in 2029.
https://x.com/ST0NEHENGE/status/1936152961098408257
Over years of involvement with the party I've come to understand that with the current Lib Dems the SDP gene is way more dominant than the old Liberal Party gene. Most of the late middle aged Lib Dem activists who are the backbone of local parties came to it via the SDP. The SDP drew most of it's support from the concerned middle classes who were great at organising things locally from children's play groups to public gardens. They translate this into politics with brilliant results if there is a well funded local party in a target seat. You only have to look at a Focus leaflet for more than 20 seconds and as if by magic someone from the local party will ring you up trying to get you to deliver some leaflets.
Reform by contrast are terrible at local organisation. I have several relatives who are heavily pro Reform. They're party members who donate money and buy the car stickers. Not once has any of them been contacted to do anything locally or received much in the way of information about their local candidate. Reform instead rely on momentum from their national leadership and how people feel on big national issues like Brexit or immigration. At the moment this is working very well for them but it remains to be seen whether it gets them over the line in enough seats come the national general election.
https://polymarket.com/event/us-military-action-against-iran-before-july?
Re Labour's Ming Vase though - I'm not sure it's true to say it has backfired. Its purpose was to de-risk the election and secure the win. It was thus a resounding success. I'd see that strategy as more instruction manual than warning for Reform.
To illustrate with a fictional anecdote. Just yesterday on the Heath I bumped into Nigel Farage - didn't see him coming! - and once I'd recovered my composure I asked him this:
"You will romp home at GE29 but find it hard to be effective and popular in government, due in part to being so anodyne with your manifesto and campaign. How does that sound? Like that prospect?"
You should have seen the look on his face. Smug doesn't cover it.
We had a major change in rural speed limits in Ireland a couple of months ago and there are a few places where the signs haven't been changed yet. One end of the main road through our village now has a 50kph speed limit sign and the other end still says 60kph, as do the signs at the side junctions.
What's the extent of the 50kph zone? No-one knows.
Make it easy for drivers. Consistent speed limits. Clear signs.
I suspect actual voting, especially in the modern day of low trust in all politicians, has a broadly even split of supporters of parties vs anti Labour/Tory then the smaller rump of NOTA.
Anti Tory would have peaked at the last election and was probably bigger than any of pro groups including Labour.
It will all be much easier when 20mph is default, with most of the rest being 30mph !
More seriously, there's room for simplification, including 40mph urban clearways, and higher speed limits for urban motorways in places. Watch what happens in Reform controlled County Councils - they get quite theological on some of this.
We need some changes rurally as well, partly to counter the folk-assumption that it's a speed target not a speed limit. For pedestrians etc, rural roads are more dangerous.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0k78715enxo
You don't need the massive team of people the BBC to tell me that the first photo the jet looks about 10x the size it should be and the second one the clue is in the "parody account" handle.
https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/murderers-troops-jail-anthony-loyd-0lzs7v87g
Two interesting points for those that are not adept at editing the page source to bypass the paywall...
Combat units are very keen on murderers who can be released to serve as long as they've only committed one murder not multiples. Fucking LOL.
The traditional prison hierarchy also conditions recruitment practices. The Suchki (untouchables, lit. 'bitches') can't be recruited as nobody will have anything to do them. The Vory v Zakone ('thieves in law', organised crime members) also can't be recruited as they won't take orders and can't be disciplined. So, it's the middle tier Muzhiki (lit. peasants) who get scooped up and sent for a short walk in Donbas.
The problem is any upwards revisions meets a very strong lobby of people who bring out stories of dead kids as reason why in fact we need to be 20mph everywhere....and we must think of the kids in addition to the eco-lobby of all those extra emissions, save the planet.
(IMO: he's a bit of a Chairman type rather than a Chief Exec, and at the very least needs an Admirable Crichton.)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c991epp257lo
One case had a chap park up under the old rules. Then they changed to plate, a few yards from his car, while he was parked. And fined him.
They have binned the contracted out parking permit service - which actually worked. Now, people request a new permit and it can take months. And they try and collect fines for residents parking within that time….
Where have we heard that before ?
The lad will go far.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/leeds/content/articles/2008/10/23/your_stories_crazy_parking_feature.shtml
So much so that Elon is going to "fix it". Again.
It may or may not be taken.
As an aside last week I finally met a Scottish Reform supporter. Who clearly does believe Farage will fix it. He was a skipper of a fishing boat back in the day.
I doubt the genius at BBC who just spend their life on twitter know any of this.
The other consideration is that pedestrian/cyclist casualties do correlate with daylight hours, so variable limits that take into account that rather than just time of day would be good.
I don't see why they couldn't replace most of the signs with LED panels.
In the areas I go to regularly, which do not include London, my dashboard display is very good indeed - a 2018 system which both camera and satellite information.
If it is a real problem for you there are phone apps, and £10 phone mounts from Amazon.
Nowadays, it probably doesn't mean very much whether an LD was ex-Lib or ex-SDP (and of course the majority are neither, having joined more lately). An analysis of the background of their older current MPs would be interesting, but only in an academic sense, since it's been a long time since I've heard anyone mention someone's Lib/SDP background as pertinent to any modern day issue or context.
There's at least one story of a serial type who cannibalised his comrade in arms.
Grok has become the final arbiter of truth for the vast majority of the denizens of X.
https://x.com/theliamnissan/status/1936189632644775961
Obama got a Nobel Peace Prize
IT'S SO UNFAIR !!!
Thankyou for your attention to this matter
But there's a further arm around education / enforcement, and room for flexibility where a high quality safe alternative is provided for walking / wheeling and cycling eg the other side of the hedge.
On the 20mph everywhere, I don't think the "near schools and hospitals" exceptionalism works, because children and old people are - and should be - everywhere. I have lots of playgrounds, Doctors surgeries, and newsagents all over my locality, where there are often children and old people.
But it's too sunny to do this to death, today,
BUT this is a pub and no one gets to disallow conversations, and we all have our cranky obsessions. So when this topic surfaces I generally drift over to Reddit
Earlier this week I listened to a "Voices from the Old Bailey" about smugglers vs customs officers cases, where one gang member claimed to have cut off a man's calves with his sword and cooked them up.
Here: Amanda Vickery, plus historians and contemporary ballads:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04d4sbs
Amanda hears the voices of smugglers and the gallant customs officers who fought them in bloody battles.
It’s amazing the peripheral ex-Soviet republics aren’t much MORE anti-Russian. Guess it helps that Stalin was Georgian
US and coalition forces have built up a massive presence at Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base as war with Iran looms.
At least 20 new aerial refueling tankers have arrived at the airbase since early this month, along with nearly 40 new F-15/F-16 fighters.
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1936261146899611877
Finally, we know of somebody more delusional than she is.
“When I win the toss on a good pitch, I bat. When I win the toss on a doubtful pitch, I think about it a bit and then I bat. When I win the toss on a very bad pitch, I think about it a bit longer and then I bat.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2352806/{{
For many of us this is just a dream to aspire to, or the end of human civilisation under the jackboot of the cycling lobby. It's toxic local politics and enormous fun.
As reported in April on PolHome:
Reform insists it has no formal ties with the new think tank and is formulating policy in-house.
However, PoliticsHome understands that those involved in setting it up have met with both Farage and Reform's deputy leader Richard Tice in recent weeks. The think tank, which has hired around half a dozen staff ahead of its spring launch, is also expected to be based in Westminster's Millbank Tower – the same building as Reform UK's headquarters.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/new-reform-linked-think-tank-plans-spring-launch
First Ipsos political monitor since GE:
Reform UK 34%
Labour 25%
Conservatives 15%
Liberal Democrats 11%
Green Party 9%
Others 6%
Labour’s vote share of 25% is the lowest Ipsos has recorded since October 2019
Tories’ 15% share the lowest Ipsos has ever recorded since 1976
Nonetheless HAHAHAHA
Ref: 431
Lab: 142
Lib: 31
Con: 6
Oh
“A RAPE charge against a man staying in an asylum hotel was kept quiet — as officials feared inflaming “community tension”.
There were also two other rape cases where it was not disclosed that the suspects were in taxpayer-funded asylum hotels.”
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/35503865/rape-charges-asylum-seeker-hotel/
Then retrain on that.
Far too much garbage in any foundation model trained on uncorrected data."
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1936333964693885089
Am I right in saying that he's proposing to retrain an AI from AI output?
“The Brazilian man in question repeatedly raped a 5 year old and has previously been convicted in Brazil for murder.
And yet the ECHR protects his “right” to be here despite, apparently, lying to the court.
Absolutely enraging and appalling.”
https://x.com/tomswarbrick1/status/1935977345803772205?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
In visual computing, this is actually becoming a very promising approach. You predict things about the world e.g. you show a load of images, you predict the camera parameters, depth of each pixel etc, you reconstruct a 3d representation, you reproject those back into the cameras and see how they compare to the input images. And rinse and repeat. And you do this on a mass scale. You end up with a 3d foundation model that is able to predict 3d aspects of the world from anywhere from a single 2d image, to a collection, even a video.