@BartholomewRoberts the US wont strike Iran they will get Israel to do their dirty work so Trump can pretend he isn’t starting a new war in the middle east
And because TACO Trump is too chickenshit to do it himself.
Hopefully Israel are not.
Will noone rid us of these turbulent Mullahs?
And more Israelis and Iranians will die
People are dying either way.
Iran are the root of most of the evil in the Middle East. There will never be a peaceful Middle East as long as they're there.
The choice when faced by evil is to confront it, or do nothing.
All it takes for evil to triumph is good to do nothing.
TACO Trump is no longer on the side of good though.
What proportion of 'the evil' are Saudi Arabia responsible for?
And what percentage the USA, and what percentage the UK?
I hope we stay out of this one. Is there a Mid East intervention that's worked out to our credit in the last 100 years?
Saddam is gone. Gaddafi is gone.
Just a shame we didn't get rid of the Mullahs at the same time as Saddam.
Pretty different challenge to achieve that I would have thought.
Reform now definitely off their post LE highs and some sign of a minor Lab recovery in the works. Tories at 16 with FoN for 5 weeks
6 pts down from the top dog party at this point in a parliament is OK for the gov't tbh. It's looking terminal for the Tories though. Annihilation awaits at the next GE if this carries on with Farage either PM or LOTO.
The value bet would be Ed Davey as LOTO
Id want to see them actually adding substantially to their 2024 polling before that would be remotely attractive. They are almost non existent in the Midlands, North and Wales, so I can't see the path to opposition as it stands
If I squint, I can see how the Lib Dems get to 90 seats: hold what they have, get some inner city strongholds back (Cambridge, Bermondsey, Haringey, Cardiff Central) take the seats where they are close behind the Tories even if third ( Romsey, North Dorset, Hamble Valley, N Cotswolds, Hinckley etc)
But I then look at how they get to 100, or 110, or 120, and I can't even imagine what the seats they'd need to win would be. Maybe look for a by-election to win and hold somewhere unexpected? If the Lib Dems can't break into areas they've had little strength in since ever, they aren't ever going to get to 100 seats. And I don't see anything in polling or local results that suggests that sort of breakthrough.
So you'd need a complete landslide for Labour or Reform, to get the Lib Dems coming second. And that just doesn't ring true for the moment, with polarised and split voting all around.
And they've got to hold on to the extremely efficient voting that got them 72 seats last time. I can see them losing a dozen seats even at 15% nationally. Unless Labour completely collapse they just won't have the 'numbers', and if it becomes a Reform Labour scrap or a tight Lab Con fight they will get squeezed
This is the argument I've had with several Lib Demmers who proudly boast 'but, 72 MPs', and compare it with Reform's 5 off more votes. Leaving aside the principle of PR, I agree that if you're looking to maximise representation for a party in the mid-teens then the 2024 strategy worked fine (though still relies on tactical voting, which came a bit unstuck in the past in 2010, never mind 2015).
But it also puts the sweet spot at about 72 MPs. The vote spread becomes increasingly inefficient thereafter as you go up, whereas although Reform hit breakthrough at a higher level, once they're there, the seats come flooding in. So the question is: what's the limit of your ambition. Do you see your ceiling as a largish third party or do you aspire to lead a government?
On the other hand, the Lib Dems are being quite distinct from all the other three parties at the moment. unfortunately, they're not getting as much media coverage as they should be - particularly with something to say that the others aren't, whether on social care or Trump, Europe and foreign affairs. The comms team needs to be knocking harder on media doors.
The LDs won pretty much all their target seats, that will be very hard to replicate. I'm sure they are trying as ever to get attention, but political commentators and the news just doesn't find them interesting enough I think.
Get the Tories out is a much more effective recruiting sergeant for tacticals than keep the (maybe third) placed tories out
@BartholomewRoberts the US wont strike Iran they will get Israel to do their dirty work so Trump can pretend he isn’t starting a new war in the middle east
And because TACO Trump is too chickenshit to do it himself.
Hopefully Israel are not.
Will noone rid us of these turbulent Mullahs?
And more Israelis and Iranians will die
People are dying either way.
Iran are the root of most of the evil in the Middle East. There will never be a peaceful Middle East as long as they're there.
The choice when faced by evil is to confront it, or do nothing.
All it takes for evil to triumph is good to do nothing.
TACO Trump is no longer on the side of good though.
What proportion of 'the evil' are Saudi Arabia responsible for?
And what percentage the USA, and what percentage the UK?
I hope we stay out of this one. Is there a Mid East intervention that's worked out to our credit in the last 100 years?
Jerusalem has a great sewage system thanks to British engineers and policy
Iran want nuclear weapons so they don’t get Ukrained. Can’t say I blame them.
Russia looking to invade Iran too?
Apparently 90% of Iran's oil goes to the PRC. So the US or Russia getting involved could be seen as an act of war. Thankfully there are competent people in both the Russian and US administrations.
My view, with a couple of cans of Guinness, at 5.30pm today, atop Malham Cove. Absolutely perfect evening.
Now moved on to the Buck, in Malham, presumably to the relief of the young couple up there hoping, I assume, for the opportunity for al fresco copulation. Ah, to be 20 again.
IMHO the best spot in Yorkshire, and therefore in England.
Doocy: “What made you change your mind about targeting in California, farmers and people in the hotels and leisure business?”
Trump: “Our farmers are being hurt badly. They have very good workers…They’re not citizens, but they’ve turned out to be great. And we’re going to have to do something about that.” https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/1933205206755340390
Reform now definitely off their post LE highs and some sign of a minor Lab recovery in the works. Tories at 16 with FoN for 5 weeks
6 pts down from the top dog party at this point in a parliament is OK for the gov't tbh. It's looking terminal for the Tories though. Annihilation awaits at the next GE if this carries on with Farage either PM or LOTO.
The value bet would be Ed Davey as LOTO
Id want to see them actually adding substantially to their 2024 polling before that would be remotely attractive. They are almost non existent in the Midlands, North and Wales, so I can't see the path to opposition as it stands
If I squint, I can see how the Lib Dems get to 90 seats: hold what they have, get some inner city strongholds back (Cambridge, Bermondsey, Haringey, Cardiff Central) take the seats where they are close behind the Tories even if third ( Romsey, North Dorset, Hamble Valley, N Cotswolds, Hinckley etc)
But I then look at how they get to 100, or 110, or 120, and I can't even imagine what the seats they'd need to win would be. Maybe look for a by-election to win and hold somewhere unexpected? If the Lib Dems can't break into areas they've had little strength in since ever, they aren't ever going to get to 100 seats. And I don't see anything in polling or local results that suggests that sort of breakthrough.
So you'd need a complete landslide for Labour or Reform, to get the Lib Dems coming second. And that just doesn't ring true for the moment, with polarised and split voting all around.
And they've got to hold on to the extremely efficient voting that got them 72 seats last time. I can see them losing a dozen seats even at 15% nationally. Unless Labour completely collapse they just won't have the 'numbers', and if it becomes a Reform Labour scrap or a tight Lab Con fight they will get squeezed
This is the argument I've had with several Lib Demmers who proudly boast 'but, 72 MPs', and compare it with Reform's 5 off more votes. Leaving aside the principle of PR, I agree that if you're looking to maximise representation for a party in the mid-teens then the 2024 strategy worked fine (though still relies on tactical voting, which came a bit unstuck in the past in 2010, never mind 2015).
But it also puts the sweet spot at about 72 MPs. The vote spread becomes increasingly inefficient thereafter as you go up, whereas although Reform hit breakthrough at a higher level, once they're there, the seats come flooding in. So the question is: what's the limit of your ambition. Do you see your ceiling as a largish third party or do you aspire to lead a government?
On the other hand, the Lib Dems are being quite distinct from all the other three parties at the moment. unfortunately, they're not getting as much media coverage as they should be - particularly with something to say that the others aren't, whether on social care or Trump, Europe and foreign affairs. The comms team needs to be knocking harder on media doors.
The LDs won pretty much all their target seats, that will be very hard to replicate. I'm sure they are trying as ever to get attention, but political commentators and the news just doesn't find them interesting enough I think.
In a world where the Conservatives are in the teens, with a vote share that is almost identical to the LibDems, well there are going to be a lot seats where the LDs are in the lead - not least because the Conservative vote share is relatively evenly spread out across the country.
Now, sure, in most of those seats the major beneficiary will be Reform. But we shouldn't underestimate the extent to which a Conservative vote share that drops to roughly the same level as the LibDems creates a lot of opportunities for them.
Reform now definitely off their post LE highs and some sign of a minor Lab recovery in the works. Tories at 16 with FoN for 5 weeks
6 pts down from the top dog party at this point in a parliament is OK for the gov't tbh. It's looking terminal for the Tories though. Annihilation awaits at the next GE if this carries on with Farage either PM or LOTO.
The value bet would be Ed Davey as LOTO
Only to a Farage premiership, if the Tories effectively were near annihilated at the next general election with about 2/3 of the rump Tories going Reform and the remaining 1/3 LD which could be enough for the LDs to overtake Labour unless Labour squeezed the Greens too
If the Tories vaporise and without a Plaid Cymru candidate in Epping Forest where do you go?
I would probably swing between Reform (which might have taken over most of the rump Tories in that scenario) and the LDs where the more One Nation type Tories would go
My view, with a couple of cans of Guinness, at 5.30pm today, atop Malham Cove. Absolutely perfect evening.
Now moved on to the Buck, in Malham, presumably to the relief of the young couple up there hoping, I assume, for the opportunity for al fresco copulation. Ah, to be 20 again.
IMHO the best spot in Yorkshire, and therefore in England.
I dunno; it's very touristy.
When I did the Pennine Way I found the unveiling of High Cup Nick to be much more dramatic.
He's everything id expect from a haunted house presenting Reform Chairman
He elicits the same vibes as the many former Fox News presenters now filling Trump's cabinet.
Right wing politics desperately needs some serious and competent people.
Right now the Country needs serious and competent people unlike Starmer snd Reeves
Indeed I cannot see any politician that could deal with the hard decisions needed
Starmer and Reeves are serious politicians who are at least trying to do the best job they can. You just don’t like them.
They are light years more serious than Kemi and Farage
Because you don't like Kemi and Farage. It's a circular argument.
Not really. Farage is objectively promising a platform that isn’t deliverable. It’s Brexit all over again
Kemi is just talking to herself
This is opinion, not fact. They are all pretty useless in my opinion, but that's not objective, its opinion There is nothing objectively more 'serious' about Starmer than the LOTO
There is. Objectively. Starmer is Prime Minister is delivering a programme that is at least stable. Kemi is talking to herself and nobody is listening
'Starmer is Prime Minister is delivering a programme that is at least stable'
Borrowing through the roof, high taxes, anti business budget, increasing unemployment and today 0-3% growth
You forgot the best part of their "stability", spending billions we don't have reversing the one sensible change they'd made.
And doing so by claiming they'd "fixed the foundations" of the economy so could now afford to reverse last years decision.
In the week its revealed employment numbers have fallen by quarter of a million thanks to Reeves tax changes, and we have gone into negative growth.
With stability like this, who needs chaos?
It’s still stable. It’s just managed decline the same way all British governments have acted my entire adult life. @Big_G_NorthWales cheered on Cameron and Boris and May and Truss (until he didn’t) who continued to pile the debt on via triple lock and other spending. Suddenly Labour are in Government and it’s suddenly the worst thing in the world.
I am pretty disappointed by the Labour government but the amount of hysteria and hyperbole on here is something to behold.
IMHO Labour may not be wonderful but they're far & away the best option at the moment.
And once the question boils down to a head-to-head, Starmer still wins and Farage still loses every time.
"Vote Starmer- the alternatives are even worse" isn't a great message, but it delivered a landslide less than a year ago.
He's everything id expect from a haunted house presenting Reform Chairman
He elicits the same vibes as the many former Fox News presenters now filling Trump's cabinet.
Right wing politics desperately needs some serious and competent people.
Right now the Country needs serious and competent people unlike Starmer snd Reeves
Indeed I cannot see any politician that could deal with the hard decisions needed
Starmer and Reeves are serious politicians who are at least trying to do the best job they can. You just don’t like them.
They are light years more serious than Kemi and Farage
Because you don't like Kemi and Farage. It's a circular argument.
Not really. Farage is objectively promising a platform that isn’t deliverable. It’s Brexit all over again
Kemi is just talking to herself
This is opinion, not fact. They are all pretty useless in my opinion, but that's not objective, its opinion There is nothing objectively more 'serious' about Starmer than the LOTO
There is. Objectively. Starmer is Prime Minister is delivering a programme that is at least stable. Kemi is talking to herself and nobody is listening
'Starmer is Prime Minister is delivering a programme that is at least stable'
Borrowing through the roof, high taxes, anti business budget, increasing unemployment and today 0-3% growth
You forgot the best part of their "stability", spending billions we don't have reversing the one sensible change they'd made.
And doing so by claiming they'd "fixed the foundations" of the economy so could now afford to reverse last years decision.
In the week its revealed employment numbers have fallen by quarter of a million thanks to Reeves tax changes, and we have gone into negative growth.
With stability like this, who needs chaos?
It’s still stable. It’s just managed decline the same way all British governments have acted my entire adult life. @Big_G_NorthWales cheered on Cameron and Boris and May and Truss (until he didn’t) who continued to pile the debt on via triple lock and other spending. Suddenly Labour are in Government and it’s suddenly the worst thing in the world.
I am pretty disappointed by the Labour government but the amount of hysteria and hyperbole on here is something to behold.
IMHO Labour may not be wonderful but they're far & away the best option at the moment.
And once the question boils down to a head-to-head, Starmer still wins and Farage still loses every time.
"Vote Starmer- the alternatives are even worse" isn't a great message, but it delivered a landslide less than a year ago.
When labour caves to the upcoming doctors strike I suspect they will be plummeting like a stone amongst private sector workers who got nothing like that rise this year
He's everything id expect from a haunted house presenting Reform Chairman
He elicits the same vibes as the many former Fox News presenters now filling Trump's cabinet.
Right wing politics desperately needs some serious and competent people.
Right now the Country needs serious and competent people unlike Starmer snd Reeves
Indeed I cannot see any politician that could deal with the hard decisions needed
Starmer and Reeves are serious politicians who are at least trying to do the best job they can. You just don’t like them.
They are light years more serious than Kemi and Farage
Because you don't like Kemi and Farage. It's a circular argument.
Not really. Farage is objectively promising a platform that isn’t deliverable. It’s Brexit all over again
Kemi is just talking to herself
This is opinion, not fact. They are all pretty useless in my opinion, but that's not objective, its opinion There is nothing objectively more 'serious' about Starmer than the LOTO
There is. Objectively. Starmer is Prime Minister is delivering a programme that is at least stable. Kemi is talking to herself and nobody is listening
'Starmer is Prime Minister is delivering a programme that is at least stable'
Borrowing through the roof, high taxes, anti business budget, increasing unemployment and today 0-3% growth
You forgot the best part of their "stability", spending billions we don't have reversing the one sensible change they'd made.
And doing so by claiming they'd "fixed the foundations" of the economy so could now afford to reverse last years decision.
In the week its revealed employment numbers have fallen by quarter of a million thanks to Reeves tax changes, and we have gone into negative growth.
With stability like this, who needs chaos?
It’s still stable. It’s just managed decline the same way all British governments have acted my entire adult life. @Big_G_NorthWales cheered on Cameron and Boris and May and Truss (until he didn’t) who continued to pile the debt on via triple lock and other spending. Suddenly Labour are in Government and it’s suddenly the worst thing in the world.
I am pretty disappointed by the Labour government but the amount of hysteria and hyperbole on here is something to behold.
That's because in a spectacular feat, Starmer’s lot are actually worse than Rishi's. The Sunak Government was, as you suggest, timid and useless in the face of decline, farting on about chess and maths till 18. Starmer is worse, because he is actively heaping fuel on to the decline. £30bn to Chagos. £18bn to Milliband's green wankery. 12 years of fishing to the EU for a non-agreement on E-gates. Employers NI rise. None of those came from Sunak.
Not going to take lectures on “value for money” from someone who doesn’t believe in climate change and still thinks Brexit was a good idea
Pathetic response even by your standards.
True though
It's a Keir Starmer response. Clearly you're the one person in the country who enjoys watching the silly sack of lard 'answer' tricky questions at PMQs.
Impossible to say as I don’t watch PMQs
I've always assumed most political nerds don't watch PMQs, as they absorb enough political detail and minutiae to get no informational value from it, and any entertainment value can will be found when political blogs and accounts tweet about it.
Barely anyone watches it. If anyone did both Hague and Howard would have been 20 points clear of Blair
Barely anyone watches it and even fewer actually use it to inform their voting intentions.
@BartholomewRoberts the US wont strike Iran they will get Israel to do their dirty work so Trump can pretend he isn’t starting a new war in the middle east
And because TACO Trump is too chickenshit to do it himself.
Hopefully Israel are not.
Will noone rid us of these turbulent Mullahs?
And more Israelis and Iranians will die
People are dying either way.
Iran are the root of most of the evil in the Middle East. There will never be a peaceful Middle East as long as they're there.
The choice when faced by evil is to confront it, or do nothing.
All it takes for evil to triumph is good to do nothing.
TACO Trump is no longer on the side of good though.
What proportion of 'the evil' are Saudi Arabia responsible for?
And what percentage the USA, and what percentage the UK?
I hope we stay out of this one. Is there a Mid East intervention that's worked out to our credit in the last 100 years?
Jerusalem has a great sewage system thanks to British engineers and policy
Fun fact: one reason the Faroes has a remarkable road and tunnel system is because the British army and navy took over the place, 1940-1945, and they blasted all the roads and tunnels so they could move about. And lots of Faroese girls fell for the relatively rich, urbane Tommies, which caused friction…
He's everything id expect from a haunted house presenting Reform Chairman
He elicits the same vibes as the many former Fox News presenters now filling Trump's cabinet.
Right wing politics desperately needs some serious and competent people.
There is nothing specially right wing about Reform's current trajectory; populist centrist high spending nationalist is the clear message now. Ask yourself what the voters of Clacton want in the way of free stuff and the rest follows inescapably.
Having said that they will get serious and competent people - by the standards now prevailing - as and if they get closer to the possibility of real power. Tim Montgomerie is not an outlier but an advance guard.
The longer Kemi stays on as LOTO, the closer it will get. If Hunt became leader the Tories have a chance of being serious. If a Jenrick type gets it, all bets are off.
The chances as of now is that top of the bill in the next election is Lab v Reform.
As we've discussed before, I don't accept your thesis that Reform UK's trajectory is not right wing. You achieve that conclusion in a number of ways. Firstly, you say their anti-immigrant stance does not count as being right wing these days, but I think that's contentious. Nativism remains mostly connected to the right, even if there are a few examples of left-wing parties also going anti-immigrant. (You've mentioned the Danish Social Democrats, but I think there are significant differences between their approach and the usual populist right position seen with Reform UK.)
Reform UK have come out with a number of high-spending pledges and some nods to state intervention that would please a Labour Party member from 1981. However, that's a selective reading of the party. They also push "DOGE-style" cuts, rail against "woke" social liberalism, and want to move the NHS to an insurance model (which would be a huge reduction in the size of the state). This is all small state stuff. They oppose net zero and dabble in climate change denial, and in anti-vax nonsense. They don't want to open coal mines because they're left-wing; they want to open coal mines to own the libs and out of some sort of 1950s fantasy idea of the country. They are a fairly typical populist right party. They are MAGA wrapped in a Union Jack; Farage's love for Trump is explicit. The other obvious comparison after Trump is Pierre Poujade.
It is also telling where Reform UK members are coming from. They are coming from the Conservative Party mostly, with a smattering coming from a lot further right.
So, yes, Reform UK are on the right. They may accept some of the post-war consensus that you label as centrism. They may make unachievable spending promises to the voters of Clacton. But they are not centrists. They are right-wingers, some conservative, some small state, some Poujadist, some reactionary, some nationalist.
As for whether they will attract serious and competent people... well, one Tim Montgomerie doesn't make a summer. Again, let us look at Trump. Trump attracted some serious and competent people, who either soon fell out with him or (e.g. Rubio, arguably Vance) abandoned all their seriousness and competence in favour of bending the knee.
I think the next election may well be Lab v Reform, but I don't expect Reform to be serious or competent. They will be offering fantasy spending plans and grievance politics, like Trump did.
Thanks. You make some excellent points. We are entirely agreed aas to your last paragraph. Ultimately I think we are labelling centrism differently - fair enough. I am relying, maybe overmuch, on the actual demands of the voters of Clacton (and 649 other seats) about big state free stuff. I agree their extremes dabble in outlandish nonsense - but this mirrors the Labour hard left who also do while I also label Labour as centrist.
I also accept that they are social conservatives - hence I identify them as Old Labour 1945-1970.
The DOGE style cuts stuff is just their silly version of the routine all party 'efficiency savings'. Wait and see.
As to climate change, lots of people who accept climate change don't accept 'Net Zero'. I think we must await their manifesto.
I am trying to read behind the rubbish as to how they would try to govern, and what will be in their 2029 manifesto. I predict high spend, therefore high tax, centrist welfarism with some bells and whistles and closed borders.
Due to increased regional tensions, the Department of State advises U.S. citizens in the Middle East and North Africa region to exercise increased caution. Historically, similar tensions have resulted in travel disruptions and increased security concerns for U.S. citizens in the region. U.S. citizens should enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) at step.state.gov to receive information and alerts and make it easier to locate you in an emergency overseas.
He's everything id expect from a haunted house presenting Reform Chairman
He elicits the same vibes as the many former Fox News presenters now filling Trump's cabinet.
Right wing politics desperately needs some serious and competent people.
There is nothing specially right wing about Reform's current trajectory; populist centrist high spending nationalist is the clear message now. Ask yourself what the voters of Clacton want in the way of free stuff and the rest follows inescapably.
Having said that they will get serious and competent people - by the standards now prevailing - as and if they get closer to the possibility of real power. Tim Montgomerie is not an outlier but an advance guard.
The longer Kemi stays on as LOTO, the closer it will get. If Hunt became leader the Tories have a chance of being serious. If a Jenrick type gets it, all bets are off.
The chances as of now is that top of the bill in the next election is Lab v Reform.
As we've discussed before, I don't accept your thesis that Reform UK's trajectory is not right wing. You achieve that conclusion in a number of ways. Firstly, you say their anti-immigrant stance does not count as being right wing these days, but I think that's contentious. Nativism remains mostly connected to the right, even if there are a few examples of left-wing parties also going anti-immigrant. (You've mentioned the Danish Social Democrats, but I think there are significant differences between their approach and the usual populist right position seen with Reform UK.)
Reform UK have come out with a number of high-spending pledges and some nods to state intervention that would please a Labour Party member from 1981. However, that's a selective reading of the party. They also push "DOGE-style" cuts, rail against "woke" social liberalism, and want to move the NHS to an insurance model (which would be a huge reduction in the size of the state). This is all small state stuff. They oppose net zero and dabble in climate change denial, and in anti-vax nonsense. They don't want to open coal mines because they're left-wing; they want to open coal mines to own the libs and out of some sort of 1950s fantasy idea of the country. They are a fairly typical populist right party. They are MAGA wrapped in a Union Jack; Farage's love for Trump is explicit. The other obvious comparison after Trump is Pierre Poujade.
It is also telling where Reform UK members are coming from. They are coming from the Conservative Party mostly, with a smattering coming from a lot further right.
So, yes, Reform UK are on the right. They may accept some of the post-war consensus that you label as centrism. They may make unachievable spending promises to the voters of Clacton. But they are not centrists. They are right-wingers, some conservative, some small state, some Poujadist, some reactionary, some nationalist.
As for whether they will attract serious and competent people... well, one Tim Montgomerie doesn't make a summer. Again, let us look at Trump. Trump attracted some serious and competent people, who either soon fell out with him or (e.g. Rubio, arguably Vance) abandoned all their seriousness and competence in favour of bending the knee.
I think the next election may well be Lab v Reform, but I don't expect Reform to be serious or competent. They will be offering fantasy spending plans and grievance politics, like Trump did.
Thanks. You make some excellent points. We are entirely agreed aas to your last paragraph. Ultimately I think we are labelling centrism differently - fair enough. I am relying, maybe overmuch, on the actual demands of the voters of Clacton (and 649 other seats) about big state free stuff. I agree their extremes dabble in outlandish nonsense - but this mirrors the Labour hard left who also do while I also label Labour as centrist.
I also accept that they are social conservatives - hence I identify them as Old Labour 1945-1970.
The DOGE style cuts stuff is just their silly version of the routine all party 'efficiency savings'. Wait and see.
As to climate change, lots of people who accept climate change don't accept 'Net Zero'. I think we must await their manifesto.
I am trying to read behind the rubbish as to how they would try to govern, and what will be in their 2029 manifesto. I predict high spend, therefore high tax, centrist welfarism with some bells and whistles and closed borders.
Farage was a big fan of Truss' budget, they will be low tax and big spend (at least for their supporters) populists, even if not fiscal conservatives as you say
@TheScreamingEagles needs to take back everything he has said about the inadequacies in Morris Dancer's historical knowledge...
Trump: "Russia fought with us in WWII and everybody hates them. And Germany and Japan, they're fine — some day somebody will explain that...Everybody hates Russia and they love Germany and Japan...It's a strange world." https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/1933207285733756966
Reform now definitely off their post LE highs and some sign of a minor Lab recovery in the works. Tories at 16 with FoN for 5 weeks
6 pts down from the top dog party at this point in a parliament is OK for the gov't tbh. It's looking terminal for the Tories though. Annihilation awaits at the next GE if this carries on with Farage either PM or LOTO.
The value bet would be Ed Davey as LOTO
Id want to see them actually adding substantially to their 2024 polling before that would be remotely attractive. They are almost non existent in the Midlands, North and Wales, so I can't see the path to opposition as it stands
If I squint, I can see how the Lib Dems get to 90 seats: hold what they have, get some inner city strongholds back (Cambridge, Bermondsey, Haringey, Cardiff Central) take the seats where they are close behind the Tories even if third ( Romsey, North Dorset, Hamble Valley, N Cotswolds, Hinckley etc)
But I then look at how they get to 100, or 110, or 120, and I can't even imagine what the seats they'd need to win would be. Maybe look for a by-election to win and hold somewhere unexpected? If the Lib Dems can't break into areas they've had little strength in since ever, they aren't ever going to get to 100 seats. And I don't see anything in polling or local results that suggests that sort of breakthrough.
So you'd need a complete landslide for Labour or Reform, to get the Lib Dems coming second. And that just doesn't ring true for the moment, with polarised and split voting all around.
And they've got to hold on to the extremely efficient voting that got them 72 seats last time. I can see them losing a dozen seats even at 15% nationally. Unless Labour completely collapse they just won't have the 'numbers', and if it becomes a Reform Labour scrap or a tight Lab Con fight they will get squeezed
This is the argument I've had with several Lib Demmers who proudly boast 'but, 72 MPs', and compare it with Reform's 5 off more votes. Leaving aside the principle of PR, I agree that if you're looking to maximise representation for a party in the mid-teens then the 2024 strategy worked fine (though still relies on tactical voting, which came a bit unstuck in the past in 2010, never mind 2015).
But it also puts the sweet spot at about 72 MPs. The vote spread becomes increasingly inefficient thereafter as you go up, whereas although Reform hit breakthrough at a higher level, once they're there, the seats come flooding in. So the question is: what's the limit of your ambition. Do you see your ceiling as a largish third party or do you aspire to lead a government?
On the other hand, the Lib Dems are being quite distinct from all the other three parties at the moment. unfortunately, they're not getting as much media coverage as they should be - particularly with something to say that the others aren't, whether on social care or Trump, Europe and foreign affairs. The comms team needs to be knocking harder on media doors.
The LDs won pretty much all their target seats, that will be very hard to replicate. I'm sure they are trying as ever to get attention, but political commentators and the news just doesn't find them interesting enough I think.
Power is newsworthy; charisma is newsworthy; new kid on the block is newsworthy; potential to topple number 1 seed is newsworthy. So Labour and Reform are newsworthy. The others, not so much. LDs, Tories and Greens are, sad to say, extraordinarily dull.
@TheScreamingEagles needs to take back everything he has said about the inadequacies in Morris Dancer's historical knowledge...
Trump: "Russia fought with us in WWII and everybody hates them. And Germany and Japan, they're fine — some day somebody will explain that...Everybody hates Russia and they love Germany and Japan...It's a strange world." https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/1933207285733756966
Everybody Hates Russia was the less well-acclaimed Ray Romano spin-off to Everybody Loves Raymond.
He's everything id expect from a haunted house presenting Reform Chairman
He elicits the same vibes as the many former Fox News presenters now filling Trump's cabinet.
Right wing politics desperately needs some serious and competent people.
There is nothing specially right wing about Reform's current trajectory; populist centrist high spending nationalist is the clear message now. Ask yourself what the voters of Clacton want in the way of free stuff and the rest follows inescapably.
Having said that they will get serious and competent people - by the standards now prevailing - as and if they get closer to the possibility of real power. Tim Montgomerie is not an outlier but an advance guard.
The longer Kemi stays on as LOTO, the closer it will get. If Hunt became leader the Tories have a chance of being serious. If a Jenrick type gets it, all bets are off.
The chances as of now is that top of the bill in the next election is Lab v Reform.
As we've discussed before, I don't accept your thesis that Reform UK's trajectory is not right wing. You achieve that conclusion in a number of ways. Firstly, you say their anti-immigrant stance does not count as being right wing these days, but I think that's contentious. Nativism remains mostly connected to the right, even if there are a few examples of left-wing parties also going anti-immigrant. (You've mentioned the Danish Social Democrats, but I think there are significant differences between their approach and the usual populist right position seen with Reform UK.)
Reform UK have come out with a number of high-spending pledges and some nods to state intervention that would please a Labour Party member from 1981. However, that's a selective reading of the party. They also push "DOGE-style" cuts, rail against "woke" social liberalism, and want to move the NHS to an insurance model (which would be a huge reduction in the size of the state). This is all small state stuff. They oppose net zero and dabble in climate change denial, and in anti-vax nonsense. They don't want to open coal mines because they're left-wing; they want to open coal mines to own the libs and out of some sort of 1950s fantasy idea of the country. They are a fairly typical populist right party. They are MAGA wrapped in a Union Jack; Farage's love for Trump is explicit. The other obvious comparison after Trump is Pierre Poujade.
It is also telling where Reform UK members are coming from. They are coming from the Conservative Party mostly, with a smattering coming from a lot further right.
So, yes, Reform UK are on the right. They may accept some of the post-war consensus that you label as centrism. They may make unachievable spending promises to the voters of Clacton. But they are not centrists. They are right-wingers, some conservative, some small state, some Poujadist, some reactionary, some nationalist.
As for whether they will attract serious and competent people... well, one Tim Montgomerie doesn't make a summer. Again, let us look at Trump. Trump attracted some serious and competent people, who either soon fell out with him or (e.g. Rubio, arguably Vance) abandoned all their seriousness and competence in favour of bending the knee.
I think the next election may well be Lab v Reform, but I don't expect Reform to be serious or competent. They will be offering fantasy spending plans and grievance politics, like Trump did.
Thanks. You make some excellent points. We are entirely agreed aas to your last paragraph. Ultimately I think we are labelling centrism differently - fair enough. I am relying, maybe overmuch, on the actual demands of the voters of Clacton (and 649 other seats) about big state free stuff. I agree their extremes dabble in outlandish nonsense - but this mirrors the Labour hard left who also do while I also label Labour as centrist.
I also accept that they are social conservatives - hence I identify them as Old Labour 1945-1970.
The DOGE style cuts stuff is just their silly version of the routine all party 'efficiency savings'. Wait and see.
As to climate change, lots of people who accept climate change don't accept 'Net Zero'. I think we must await their manifesto.
I am trying to read behind the rubbish as to how they would try to govern, and what will be in their 2029 manifesto. I predict high spend, therefore high tax, centrist welfarism with some bells and whistles and closed borders.
Labour has a left-of-centre core and some extremes to the hard left. Reform UK is extreme all the way through. There’re no sensible, middle of the road Reform UK politicians.
Old Labour 1945-70 were not socially conservative, not at the end. 1967 saw the legalisation of both abortion and homosexuality under Labour.
The Reform UK manifesto is absolutely not going to propose higher taxes. You cannot extrapolate from what you think Clacton’s voters want to what Reform UK will promise. (It’s not like Farage is hanging around in Clacton listening to his constituents anyway! He spends more time swanning around MAGA events.)
Reform UK are populist right, and will govern as populist right, if elected.
He's everything id expect from a haunted house presenting Reform Chairman
He elicits the same vibes as the many former Fox News presenters now filling Trump's cabinet.
Right wing politics desperately needs some serious and competent people.
There is nothing specially right wing about Reform's current trajectory; populist centrist high spending nationalist is the clear message now. Ask yourself what the voters of Clacton want in the way of free stuff and the rest follows inescapably.
Having said that they will get serious and competent people - by the standards now prevailing - as and if they get closer to the possibility of real power. Tim Montgomerie is not an outlier but an advance guard.
The longer Kemi stays on as LOTO, the closer it will get. If Hunt became leader the Tories have a chance of being serious. If a Jenrick type gets it, all bets are off.
The chances as of now is that top of the bill in the next election is Lab v Reform.
As we've discussed before, I don't accept your thesis that Reform UK's trajectory is not right wing. You achieve that conclusion in a number of ways. Firstly, you say their anti-immigrant stance does not count as being right wing these days, but I think that's contentious. Nativism remains mostly connected to the right, even if there are a few examples of left-wing parties also going anti-immigrant. (You've mentioned the Danish Social Democrats, but I think there are significant differences between their approach and the usual populist right position seen with Reform UK.)
Reform UK have come out with a number of high-spending pledges and some nods to state intervention that would please a Labour Party member from 1981. However, that's a selective reading of the party. They also push "DOGE-style" cuts, rail against "woke" social liberalism, and want to move the NHS to an insurance model (which would be a huge reduction in the size of the state). This is all small state stuff. They oppose net zero and dabble in climate change denial, and in anti-vax nonsense. They don't want to open coal mines because they're left-wing; they want to open coal mines to own the libs and out of some sort of 1950s fantasy idea of the country. They are a fairly typical populist right party. They are MAGA wrapped in a Union Jack; Farage's love for Trump is explicit. The other obvious comparison after Trump is Pierre Poujade.
It is also telling where Reform UK members are coming from. They are coming from the Conservative Party mostly, with a smattering coming from a lot further right.
So, yes, Reform UK are on the right. They may accept some of the post-war consensus that you label as centrism. They may make unachievable spending promises to the voters of Clacton. But they are not centrists. They are right-wingers, some conservative, some small state, some Poujadist, some reactionary, some nationalist.
As for whether they will attract serious and competent people... well, one Tim Montgomerie doesn't make a summer. Again, let us look at Trump. Trump attracted some serious and competent people, who either soon fell out with him or (e.g. Rubio, arguably Vance) abandoned all their seriousness and competence in favour of bending the knee.
I think the next election may well be Lab v Reform, but I don't expect Reform to be serious or competent. They will be offering fantasy spending plans and grievance politics, like Trump did.
Thanks. You make some excellent points. We are entirely agreed aas to your last paragraph. Ultimately I think we are labelling centrism differently - fair enough. I am relying, maybe overmuch, on the actual demands of the voters of Clacton (and 649 other seats) about big state free stuff. I agree their extremes dabble in outlandish nonsense - but this mirrors the Labour hard left who also do while I also label Labour as centrist.
I also accept that they are social conservatives - hence I identify them as Old Labour 1945-1970.
The DOGE style cuts stuff is just their silly version of the routine all party 'efficiency savings'. Wait and see.
As to climate change, lots of people who accept climate change don't accept 'Net Zero'. I think we must await their manifesto.
I am trying to read behind the rubbish as to how they would try to govern, and what will be in their 2029 manifesto. I predict high spend, therefore high tax, centrist welfarism with some bells and whistles and closed borders.
Farage was a big fan of Truss' budget, they will be low tax and big spend (at least for their supporters) populists, even if not fiscal conservatives as you say
If Reform govern they will not significantly reduce the tax take, unless they do so by accident as they crash the economy by losing the market's trust. They will contine to be, like all other parties, high tax and high spend.
He's everything id expect from a haunted house presenting Reform Chairman
He elicits the same vibes as the many former Fox News presenters now filling Trump's cabinet.
Right wing politics desperately needs some serious and competent people.
There is nothing specially right wing about Reform's current trajectory; populist centrist high spending nationalist is the clear message now. Ask yourself what the voters of Clacton want in the way of free stuff and the rest follows inescapably.
Having said that they will get serious and competent people - by the standards now prevailing - as and if they get closer to the possibility of real power. Tim Montgomerie is not an outlier but an advance guard.
The longer Kemi stays on as LOTO, the closer it will get. If Hunt became leader the Tories have a chance of being serious. If a Jenrick type gets it, all bets are off.
The chances as of now is that top of the bill in the next election is Lab v Reform.
As we've discussed before, I don't accept your thesis that Reform UK's trajectory is not right wing. You achieve that conclusion in a number of ways. Firstly, you say their anti-immigrant stance does not count as being right wing these days, but I think that's contentious. Nativism remains mostly connected to the right, even if there are a few examples of left-wing parties also going anti-immigrant. (You've mentioned the Danish Social Democrats, but I think there are significant differences between their approach and the usual populist right position seen with Reform UK.)
Reform UK have come out with a number of high-spending pledges and some nods to state intervention that would please a Labour Party member from 1981. However, that's a selective reading of the party. They also push "DOGE-style" cuts, rail against "woke" social liberalism, and want to move the NHS to an insurance model (which would be a huge reduction in the size of the state). This is all small state stuff. They oppose net zero and dabble in climate change denial, and in anti-vax nonsense. They don't want to open coal mines because they're left-wing; they want to open coal mines to own the libs and out of some sort of 1950s fantasy idea of the country. They are a fairly typical populist right party. They are MAGA wrapped in a Union Jack; Farage's love for Trump is explicit. The other obvious comparison after Trump is Pierre Poujade.
It is also telling where Reform UK members are coming from. They are coming from the Conservative Party mostly, with a smattering coming from a lot further right.
So, yes, Reform UK are on the right. They may accept some of the post-war consensus that you label as centrism. They may make unachievable spending promises to the voters of Clacton. But they are not centrists. They are right-wingers, some conservative, some small state, some Poujadist, some reactionary, some nationalist.
As for whether they will attract serious and competent people... well, one Tim Montgomerie doesn't make a summer. Again, let us look at Trump. Trump attracted some serious and competent people, who either soon fell out with him or (e.g. Rubio, arguably Vance) abandoned all their seriousness and competence in favour of bending the knee.
I think the next election may well be Lab v Reform, but I don't expect Reform to be serious or competent. They will be offering fantasy spending plans and grievance politics, like Trump did.
Thanks. You make some excellent points. We are entirely agreed aas to your last paragraph. Ultimately I think we are labelling centrism differently - fair enough. I am relying, maybe overmuch, on the actual demands of the voters of Clacton (and 649 other seats) about big state free stuff. I agree their extremes dabble in outlandish nonsense - but this mirrors the Labour hard left who also do while I also label Labour as centrist.
I also accept that they are social conservatives - hence I identify them as Old Labour 1945-1970.
The DOGE style cuts stuff is just their silly version of the routine all party 'efficiency savings'. Wait and see.
As to climate change, lots of people who accept climate change don't accept 'Net Zero'. I think we must await their manifesto.
I am trying to read behind the rubbish as to how they would try to govern, and what will be in their 2029 manifesto. I predict high spend, therefore high tax, centrist welfarism with some bells and whistles and closed borders.
Farage was a big fan of Truss' budget, they will be low tax and big spend (at least for their supporters) populists, even if not fiscal conservatives as you say
If Reform govern they will not significantly reduce the tax take, unless they do so by accident as they crash the economy by losing the market's trust. They will contine to be, like all other parties, high tax and high spend.
They’ll do the same as Trump: reduce tax for the richest.
He's everything id expect from a haunted house presenting Reform Chairman
He elicits the same vibes as the many former Fox News presenters now filling Trump's cabinet.
Right wing politics desperately needs some serious and competent people.
There is nothing specially right wing about Reform's current trajectory; populist centrist high spending nationalist is the clear message now. Ask yourself what the voters of Clacton want in the way of free stuff and the rest follows inescapably.
Having said that they will get serious and competent people - by the standards now prevailing - as and if they get closer to the possibility of real power. Tim Montgomerie is not an outlier but an advance guard.
The longer Kemi stays on as LOTO, the closer it will get. If Hunt became leader the Tories have a chance of being serious. If a Jenrick type gets it, all bets are off.
The chances as of now is that top of the bill in the next election is Lab v Reform.
As we've discussed before, I don't accept your thesis that Reform UK's trajectory is not right wing. You achieve that conclusion in a number of ways. Firstly, you say their anti-immigrant stance does not count as being right wing these days, but I think that's contentious. Nativism remains mostly connected to the right, even if there are a few examples of left-wing parties also going anti-immigrant. (You've mentioned the Danish Social Democrats, but I think there are significant differences between their approach and the usual populist right position seen with Reform UK.)
Reform UK have come out with a number of high-spending pledges and some nods to state intervention that would please a Labour Party member from 1981. However, that's a selective reading of the party. They also push "DOGE-style" cuts, rail against "woke" social liberalism, and want to move the NHS to an insurance model (which would be a huge reduction in the size of the state). This is all small state stuff. They oppose net zero and dabble in climate change denial, and in anti-vax nonsense. They don't want to open coal mines because they're left-wing; they want to open coal mines to own the libs and out of some sort of 1950s fantasy idea of the country. They are a fairly typical populist right party. They are MAGA wrapped in a Union Jack; Farage's love for Trump is explicit. The other obvious comparison after Trump is Pierre Poujade.
It is also telling where Reform UK members are coming from. They are coming from the Conservative Party mostly, with a smattering coming from a lot further right.
So, yes, Reform UK are on the right. They may accept some of the post-war consensus that you label as centrism. They may make unachievable spending promises to the voters of Clacton. But they are not centrists. They are right-wingers, some conservative, some small state, some Poujadist, some reactionary, some nationalist.
As for whether they will attract serious and competent people... well, one Tim Montgomerie doesn't make a summer. Again, let us look at Trump. Trump attracted some serious and competent people, who either soon fell out with him or (e.g. Rubio, arguably Vance) abandoned all their seriousness and competence in favour of bending the knee.
I think the next election may well be Lab v Reform, but I don't expect Reform to be serious or competent. They will be offering fantasy spending plans and grievance politics, like Trump did.
Thanks. You make some excellent points. We are entirely agreed aas to your last paragraph. Ultimately I think we are labelling centrism differently - fair enough. I am relying, maybe overmuch, on the actual demands of the voters of Clacton (and 649 other seats) about big state free stuff. I agree their extremes dabble in outlandish nonsense - but this mirrors the Labour hard left who also do while I also label Labour as centrist.
I also accept that they are social conservatives - hence I identify them as Old Labour 1945-1970.
The DOGE style cuts stuff is just their silly version of the routine all party 'efficiency savings'. Wait and see.
As to climate change, lots of people who accept climate change don't accept 'Net Zero'. I think we must await their manifesto.
I am trying to read behind the rubbish as to how they would try to govern, and what will be in their 2029 manifesto. I predict high spend, therefore high tax, centrist welfarism with some bells and whistles and closed borders.
Labour has a left-of-centre core and some extremes to the hard left. Reform UK is extreme all the way through. There’re no sensible, middle of the road Reform UK politicians.
Old Labour 1945-70 were not socially conservative, not at the end. 1967 saw the legalisation of both abortion and homosexuality under Labour.
The Reform UK manifesto is absolutely not going to propose higher taxes. You cannot extrapolate from what you think Clacton’s voters want to what Reform UK will promise. (It’s not like Farage is hanging around in Clacton listening to his constituents anyway! He spends more time swanning around MAGA events.)
Reform UK are populist right, and will govern as populist right, if elected.
We shall have to wait and see. My view remains that they will be high spend, and therefore high (as now, not necessarily higher than now) tax. Their manifesto will be one of studied moderation as to the now and medium term, with plenty of 'Rome was not built in a day' about the wilder nonsense.
He's everything id expect from a haunted house presenting Reform Chairman
He elicits the same vibes as the many former Fox News presenters now filling Trump's cabinet.
Right wing politics desperately needs some serious and competent people.
There is nothing specially right wing about Reform's current trajectory; populist centrist high spending nationalist is the clear message now. Ask yourself what the voters of Clacton want in the way of free stuff and the rest follows inescapably.
Having said that they will get serious and competent people - by the standards now prevailing - as and if they get closer to the possibility of real power. Tim Montgomerie is not an outlier but an advance guard.
The longer Kemi stays on as LOTO, the closer it will get. If Hunt became leader the Tories have a chance of being serious. If a Jenrick type gets it, all bets are off.
The chances as of now is that top of the bill in the next election is Lab v Reform.
As we've discussed before, I don't accept your thesis that Reform UK's trajectory is not right wing. You achieve that conclusion in a number of ways. Firstly, you say their anti-immigrant stance does not count as being right wing these days, but I think that's contentious. Nativism remains mostly connected to the right, even if there are a few examples of left-wing parties also going anti-immigrant. (You've mentioned the Danish Social Democrats, but I think there are significant differences between their approach and the usual populist right position seen with Reform UK.)
Reform UK have come out with a number of high-spending pledges and some nods to state intervention that would please a Labour Party member from 1981. However, that's a selective reading of the party. They also push "DOGE-style" cuts, rail against "woke" social liberalism, and want to move the NHS to an insurance model (which would be a huge reduction in the size of the state). This is all small state stuff. They oppose net zero and dabble in climate change denial, and in anti-vax nonsense. They don't want to open coal mines because they're left-wing; they want to open coal mines to own the libs and out of some sort of 1950s fantasy idea of the country. They are a fairly typical populist right party. They are MAGA wrapped in a Union Jack; Farage's love for Trump is explicit. The other obvious comparison after Trump is Pierre Poujade.
It is also telling where Reform UK members are coming from. They are coming from the Conservative Party mostly, with a smattering coming from a lot further right.
So, yes, Reform UK are on the right. They may accept some of the post-war consensus that you label as centrism. They may make unachievable spending promises to the voters of Clacton. But they are not centrists. They are right-wingers, some conservative, some small state, some Poujadist, some reactionary, some nationalist.
As for whether they will attract serious and competent people... well, one Tim Montgomerie doesn't make a summer. Again, let us look at Trump. Trump attracted some serious and competent people, who either soon fell out with him or (e.g. Rubio, arguably Vance) abandoned all their seriousness and competence in favour of bending the knee.
I think the next election may well be Lab v Reform, but I don't expect Reform to be serious or competent. They will be offering fantasy spending plans and grievance politics, like Trump did.
Thanks. You make some excellent points. We are entirely agreed aas to your last paragraph. Ultimately I think we are labelling centrism differently - fair enough. I am relying, maybe overmuch, on the actual demands of the voters of Clacton (and 649 other seats) about big state free stuff. I agree their extremes dabble in outlandish nonsense - but this mirrors the Labour hard left who also do while I also label Labour as centrist.
I also accept that they are social conservatives - hence I identify them as Old Labour 1945-1970.
The DOGE style cuts stuff is just their silly version of the routine all party 'efficiency savings'. Wait and see.
As to climate change, lots of people who accept climate change don't accept 'Net Zero'. I think we must await their manifesto.
I am trying to read behind the rubbish as to how they would try to govern, and what will be in their 2029 manifesto. I predict high spend, therefore high tax, centrist welfarism with some bells and whistles and closed borders.
Farage was a big fan of Truss' budget, they will be low tax and big spend (at least for their supporters) populists, even if not fiscal conservatives as you say
If Reform govern they will not significantly reduce the tax take, unless they do so by accident as they crash the economy by losing the market's trust. They will contine to be, like all other parties, high tax and high spend.
They’ll do the same as Trump: reduce tax for the richest.
Possible but I don't think so. What I am sure of is that they will not plan to reduce the total tax take. TME will remain at well above 40% of GDP - currently about 44%. This is the level required for a social democrat welfarist state. Reform will continue it. In a sense that is my central prediction. I hope they don't get the chance, and if they do they will screw up.
He's everything id expect from a haunted house presenting Reform Chairman
He elicits the same vibes as the many former Fox News presenters now filling Trump's cabinet.
Right wing politics desperately needs some serious and competent people.
There is nothing specially right wing about Reform's current trajectory; populist centrist high spending nationalist is the clear message now. Ask yourself what the voters of Clacton want in the way of free stuff and the rest follows inescapably.
Having said that they will get serious and competent people - by the standards now prevailing - as and if they get closer to the possibility of real power. Tim Montgomerie is not an outlier but an advance guard.
The longer Kemi stays on as LOTO, the closer it will get. If Hunt became leader the Tories have a chance of being serious. If a Jenrick type gets it, all bets are off.
The chances as of now is that top of the bill in the next election is Lab v Reform.
As we've discussed before, I don't accept your thesis that Reform UK's trajectory is not right wing. You achieve that conclusion in a number of ways. Firstly, you say their anti-immigrant stance does not count as being right wing these days, but I think that's contentious. Nativism remains mostly connected to the right, even if there are a few examples of left-wing parties also going anti-immigrant. (You've mentioned the Danish Social Democrats, but I think there are significant differences between their approach and the usual populist right position seen with Reform UK.)
Reform UK have come out with a number of high-spending pledges and some nods to state intervention that would please a Labour Party member from 1981. However, that's a selective reading of the party. They also push "DOGE-style" cuts, rail against "woke" social liberalism, and want to move the NHS to an insurance model (which would be a huge reduction in the size of the state). This is all small state stuff. They oppose net zero and dabble in climate change denial, and in anti-vax nonsense. They don't want to open coal mines because they're left-wing; they want to open coal mines to own the libs and out of some sort of 1950s fantasy idea of the country. They are a fairly typical populist right party. They are MAGA wrapped in a Union Jack; Farage's love for Trump is explicit. The other obvious comparison after Trump is Pierre Poujade.
It is also telling where Reform UK members are coming from. They are coming from the Conservative Party mostly, with a smattering coming from a lot further right.
So, yes, Reform UK are on the right. They may accept some of the post-war consensus that you label as centrism. They may make unachievable spending promises to the voters of Clacton. But they are not centrists. They are right-wingers, some conservative, some small state, some Poujadist, some reactionary, some nationalist.
As for whether they will attract serious and competent people... well, one Tim Montgomerie doesn't make a summer. Again, let us look at Trump. Trump attracted some serious and competent people, who either soon fell out with him or (e.g. Rubio, arguably Vance) abandoned all their seriousness and competence in favour of bending the knee.
I think the next election may well be Lab v Reform, but I don't expect Reform to be serious or competent. They will be offering fantasy spending plans and grievance politics, like Trump did.
Thanks. You make some excellent points. We are entirely agreed aas to your last paragraph. Ultimately I think we are labelling centrism differently - fair enough. I am relying, maybe overmuch, on the actual demands of the voters of Clacton (and 649 other seats) about big state free stuff. I agree their extremes dabble in outlandish nonsense - but this mirrors the Labour hard left who also do while I also label Labour as centrist.
I also accept that they are social conservatives - hence I identify them as Old Labour 1945-1970.
The DOGE style cuts stuff is just their silly version of the routine all party 'efficiency savings'. Wait and see.
As to climate change, lots of people who accept climate change don't accept 'Net Zero'. I think we must await their manifesto.
I am trying to read behind the rubbish as to how they would try to govern, and what will be in their 2029 manifesto. I predict high spend, therefore high tax, centrist welfarism with some bells and whistles and closed borders.
Labour has a left-of-centre core and some extremes to the hard left. Reform UK is extreme all the way through. There’re no sensible, middle of the road Reform UK politicians.
Old Labour 1945-70 were not socially conservative, not at the end. 1967 saw the legalisation of both abortion and homosexuality under Labour.
The Reform UK manifesto is absolutely not going to propose higher taxes. You cannot extrapolate from what you think Clacton’s voters want to what Reform UK will promise. (It’s not like Farage is hanging around in Clacton listening to his constituents anyway! He spends more time swanning around MAGA events.)
Reform UK are populist right, and will govern as populist right, if elected.
We shall have to wait and see. My view remains that they will be high spend, and therefore high (as now, not necessarily higher than now) tax. Their manifesto will be one of studied moderation as to the now and medium term, with plenty of 'Rome was not built in a day' about the wilder nonsense.
Before the election, they will convince themselves that there is so much waste to cut that lower taxes and higher (good) spending is an option.
In office, they would struggle to defeat arithmetic and the bond markets, but that's another day's problem.
@BartholomewRoberts the US wont strike Iran they will get Israel to do their dirty work so Trump can pretend he isn’t starting a new war in the middle east
And because TACO Trump is too chickenshit to do it himself.
Hopefully Israel are not.
Will noone rid us of these turbulent Mullahs?
And more Israelis and Iranians will die
People are dying either way.
Iran are the root of most of the evil in the Middle East. There will never be a peaceful Middle East as long as they're there.
The choice when faced by evil is to confront it, or do nothing.
All it takes for evil to triumph is good to do nothing.
TACO Trump is no longer on the side of good though.
What proportion of 'the evil' are Saudi Arabia responsible for?
And what percentage the USA, and what percentage the UK?
I hope we stay out of this one. Is there a Mid East intervention that's worked out to our credit in the last 100 years?
Jerusalem has a great sewage system thanks to British engineers and policy
Fun fact: one reason the Faroes has a remarkable road and tunnel system is because the British army and navy took over the place, 1940-1945, and they blasted all the roads and tunnels so they could move about. And lots of Faroese girls fell for the relatively rich, urbane Tommies, which caused friction…
So, we can build infrastructure in Israel and the Faroes, but not at home where it’s desperately needed.
He's everything id expect from a haunted house presenting Reform Chairman
He elicits the same vibes as the many former Fox News presenters now filling Trump's cabinet.
Right wing politics desperately needs some serious and competent people.
Right now the Country needs serious and competent people unlike Starmer snd Reeves
Indeed I cannot see any politician that could deal with the hard decisions needed
Starmer and Reeves are serious politicians who are at least trying to do the best job they can. You just don’t like them.
They are light years more serious than Kemi and Farage
Because you don't like Kemi and Farage. It's a circular argument.
Not really. Farage is objectively promising a platform that isn’t deliverable. It’s Brexit all over again
Kemi is just talking to herself
This is opinion, not fact. They are all pretty useless in my opinion, but that's not objective, its opinion There is nothing objectively more 'serious' about Starmer than the LOTO
There is. Objectively. Starmer is Prime Minister is delivering a programme that is at least stable. Kemi is talking to herself and nobody is listening
'Starmer is Prime Minister is delivering a programme that is at least stable'
Borrowing through the roof, high taxes, anti business budget, increasing unemployment and today 0-3% growth
You forgot the best part of their "stability", spending billions we don't have reversing the one sensible change they'd made.
And doing so by claiming they'd "fixed the foundations" of the economy so could now afford to reverse last years decision.
In the week its revealed employment numbers have fallen by quarter of a million thanks to Reeves tax changes, and we have gone into negative growth.
With stability like this, who needs chaos?
It’s still stable. It’s just managed decline the same way all British governments have acted my entire adult life. @Big_G_NorthWales cheered on Cameron and Boris and May and Truss (until he didn’t) who continued to pile the debt on via triple lock and other spending. Suddenly Labour are in Government and it’s suddenly the worst thing in the world.
I am pretty disappointed by the Labour government but the amount of hysteria and hyperbole on here is something to behold.
IMHO Labour may not be wonderful but they're far & away the best option at the moment.
And once the question boils down to a head-to-head, Starmer still wins and Farage still loses every time.
"Vote Starmer- the alternatives are even worse" isn't a great message, but it delivered a landslide less than a year ago.
When labour caves to the upcoming doctors strike I suspect they will be plummeting like a stone amongst private sector workers who got nothing like that rise this year
I'm in the public sector and been 'final' offered 1.4%. It's not a private sector vs. public sector war.
@BartholomewRoberts the US wont strike Iran they will get Israel to do their dirty work so Trump can pretend he isn’t starting a new war in the middle east
And because TACO Trump is too chickenshit to do it himself.
Hopefully Israel are not.
Will noone rid us of these turbulent Mullahs?
And more Israelis and Iranians will die
People are dying either way.
Iran are the root of most of the evil in the Middle East. There will never be a peaceful Middle East as long as they're there.
The choice when faced by evil is to confront it, or do nothing.
All it takes for evil to triumph is good to do nothing.
TACO Trump is no longer on the side of good though.
What proportion of 'the evil' are Saudi Arabia responsible for?
And what percentage the USA, and what percentage the UK?
I hope we stay out of this one. Is there a Mid East intervention that's worked out to our credit in the last 100 years?
Saddam is gone. Gaddafi is gone.
Just a shame we didn't get rid of the Mullahs at the same time as Saddam.
Bush was right to recognise N Korea, Iran and Iraq as an axis of evil, and N Korea have nukes so they're untouchable as per @rcs1000 distasteful analogy. Russia is firmly in the axis now, but also has nukes.
Taking out Iraq but not Iran was rather pointless. Like removing one malignant tumour but leaving another right next to it.
As well as being evil, Iran unquestioningly is seeking WMDs too.
your ignorance of all things Middle East is excruciating
He's everything id expect from a haunted house presenting Reform Chairman
He elicits the same vibes as the many former Fox News presenters now filling Trump's cabinet.
Right wing politics desperately needs some serious and competent people.
Right now the Country needs serious and competent people unlike Starmer snd Reeves
Indeed I cannot see any politician that could deal with the hard decisions needed
Starmer and Reeves are serious politicians who are at least trying to do the best job they can. You just don’t like them.
They are light years more serious than Kemi and Farage
Because you don't like Kemi and Farage. It's a circular argument.
Not really. Farage is objectively promising a platform that isn’t deliverable. It’s Brexit all over again
Kemi is just talking to herself
This is opinion, not fact. They are all pretty useless in my opinion, but that's not objective, its opinion There is nothing objectively more 'serious' about Starmer than the LOTO
There is. Objectively. Starmer is Prime Minister is delivering a programme that is at least stable. Kemi is talking to herself and nobody is listening
'Starmer is Prime Minister is delivering a programme that is at least stable'
Borrowing through the roof, high taxes, anti business budget, increasing unemployment and today 0-3% growth
You forgot the best part of their "stability", spending billions we don't have reversing the one sensible change they'd made.
And doing so by claiming they'd "fixed the foundations" of the economy so could now afford to reverse last years decision.
In the week its revealed employment numbers have fallen by quarter of a million thanks to Reeves tax changes, and we have gone into negative growth.
With stability like this, who needs chaos?
It’s still stable. It’s just managed decline the same way all British governments have acted my entire adult life. @Big_G_NorthWales cheered on Cameron and Boris and May and Truss (until he didn’t) who continued to pile the debt on via triple lock and other spending. Suddenly Labour are in Government and it’s suddenly the worst thing in the world.
I am pretty disappointed by the Labour government but the amount of hysteria and hyperbole on here is something to behold.
IMHO Labour may not be wonderful but they're far & away the best option at the moment.
And once the question boils down to a head-to-head, Starmer still wins and Farage still loses every time.
"Vote Starmer- the alternatives are even worse" isn't a great message, but it delivered a landslide less than a year ago.
When labour caves to the upcoming doctors strike I suspect they will be plummeting like a stone amongst private sector workers who got nothing like that rise this year
I'm in the public sector and been 'final' offered 1.4%. It's not a private sector vs. public sector war.
Two sides that often know bugger all about the other.
@TheScreamingEagles needs to take back everything he has said about the inadequacies in Morris Dancer's historical knowledge...
Trump: "Russia fought with us in WWII and everybody hates them. And Germany and Japan, they're fine — some day somebody will explain that...Everybody hates Russia and they love Germany and Japan...It's a strange world." https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/1933207285733756966
It's almost as though other things happened after WW2, but he's a busy genius, we cannot expect him to know that.
He's everything id expect from a haunted house presenting Reform Chairman
He elicits the same vibes as the many former Fox News presenters now filling Trump's cabinet.
Right wing politics desperately needs some serious and competent people.
There is nothing specially right wing about Reform's current trajectory; populist centrist high spending nationalist is the clear message now. Ask yourself what the voters of Clacton want in the way of free stuff and the rest follows inescapably.
Having said that they will get serious and competent people - by the standards now prevailing - as and if they get closer to the possibility of real power. Tim Montgomerie is not an outlier but an advance guard.
The longer Kemi stays on as LOTO, the closer it will get. If Hunt became leader the Tories have a chance of being serious. If a Jenrick type gets it, all bets are off.
The chances as of now is that top of the bill in the next election is Lab v Reform.
As we've discussed before, I don't accept your thesis that Reform UK's trajectory is not right wing. You achieve that conclusion in a number of ways. Firstly, you say their anti-immigrant stance does not count as being right wing these days, but I think that's contentious. Nativism remains mostly connected to the right, even if there are a few examples of left-wing parties also going anti-immigrant. (You've mentioned the Danish Social Democrats, but I think there are significant differences between their approach and the usual populist right position seen with Reform UK.)
Reform UK have come out with a number of high-spending pledges and some nods to state intervention that would please a Labour Party member from 1981. However, that's a selective reading of the party. They also push "DOGE-style" cuts, rail against "woke" social liberalism, and want to move the NHS to an insurance model (which would be a huge reduction in the size of the state). This is all small state stuff. They oppose net zero and dabble in climate change denial, and in anti-vax nonsense. They don't want to open coal mines because they're left-wing; they want to open coal mines to own the libs and out of some sort of 1950s fantasy idea of the country. They are a fairly typical populist right party. They are MAGA wrapped in a Union Jack; Farage's love for Trump is explicit. The other obvious comparison after Trump is Pierre Poujade.
It is also telling where Reform UK members are coming from. They are coming from the Conservative Party mostly, with a smattering coming from a lot further right.
So, yes, Reform UK are on the right. They may accept some of the post-war consensus that you label as centrism. They may make unachievable spending promises to the voters of Clacton. But they are not centrists. They are right-wingers, some conservative, some small state, some Poujadist, some reactionary, some nationalist.
As for whether they will attract serious and competent people... well, one Tim Montgomerie doesn't make a summer. Again, let us look at Trump. Trump attracted some serious and competent people, who either soon fell out with him or (e.g. Rubio, arguably Vance) abandoned all their seriousness and competence in favour of bending the knee.
I think the next election may well be Lab v Reform, but I don't expect Reform to be serious or competent. They will be offering fantasy spending plans and grievance politics, like Trump did.
Thanks. You make some excellent points. We are entirely agreed aas to your last paragraph. Ultimately I think we are labelling centrism differently - fair enough. I am relying, maybe overmuch, on the actual demands of the voters of Clacton (and 649 other seats) about big state free stuff. I agree their extremes dabble in outlandish nonsense - but this mirrors the Labour hard left who also do while I also label Labour as centrist.
I also accept that they are social conservatives - hence I identify them as Old Labour 1945-1970.
The DOGE style cuts stuff is just their silly version of the routine all party 'efficiency savings'. Wait and see.
As to climate change, lots of people who accept climate change don't accept 'Net Zero'. I think we must await their manifesto.
I am trying to read behind the rubbish as to how they would try to govern, and what will be in their 2029 manifesto. I predict high spend, therefore high tax, centrist welfarism with some bells and whistles and closed borders.
Farage was a big fan of Truss' budget, they will be low tax and big spend (at least for their supporters) populists, even if not fiscal conservatives as you say
If Reform govern they will not significantly reduce the tax take, unless they do so by accident as they crash the economy by losing the market's trust. They will contine to be, like all other parties, high tax and high spend.
Reform have already committed to scrap inheritance tax and take all those earning under £20k out of income tax and those earning under £70k out of the higher rate.
As a percentage of gdp the Tory and LD coalition government reduced spending and Osborne cut tax for the lowest earners and raised the IHT threshold
This is a very interesting article. No doubt some PBers knew this history; I didn't (though was vaguely aware of bits of it).
How one Kiwi tamed inflation Inflation targeting is now standard in central banking. But it began with an offhand comment and a political gamble in New Zealand – long before economists took it seriously. https://worksinprogress.co/issue/how-one-kiwi-tamed-inflation/
@TheScreamingEagles needs to take back everything he has said about the inadequacies in Morris Dancer's historical knowledge...
Trump: "Russia fought with us in WWII and everybody hates them. And Germany and Japan, they're fine — some day somebody will explain that...Everybody hates Russia and they love Germany and Japan...It's a strange world." https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/1933207285733756966
It's almost as though other things happened after WW2, but he's a busy genius, we cannot expect him to know that.
It’s almost like he has a disease that means he’s living in the past and he’s forgotten what happened over the past 35 years
An interesting phenomenon of a Trumpite idea of who is British then going on to encourage the British than him.
Twitter is full of thousands of Anericans of Anglo descent saying that the survivor is not British, and they are more British than him. Subsequently then, the Mail has more thousands of openly racist posts, saying that Indian people cannot be British, thsn I've ever seen.
@TheScreamingEagles needs to take back everything he has said about the inadequacies in Morris Dancer's historical knowledge...
Trump: "Russia fought with us in WWII and everybody hates them. And Germany and Japan, they're fine — some day somebody will explain that...Everybody hates Russia and they love Germany and Japan...It's a strange world." https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/1933207285733756966
It's almost as though other things happened after WW2, but he's a busy genius, we cannot expect him to know that.
Wait until someone tells him about Molotov/Ribbentrop..
An interesting phenomenon of a Trumpite idea of who is British then going on to encourage the British than him.
Twitter is full of thousands of Anericans of Anglo descent saying that the survivor is not British, and they are more British than him. Subsequently then, the Mail has more thousands of openly racist posts, saying that Indian people cannot be British, thsn I've ever seen.
He's everything id expect from a haunted house presenting Reform Chairman
He elicits the same vibes as the many former Fox News presenters now filling Trump's cabinet.
Right wing politics desperately needs some serious and competent people.
There is nothing specially right wing about Reform's current trajectory; populist centrist high spending nationalist is the clear message now. Ask yourself what the voters of Clacton want in the way of free stuff and the rest follows inescapably.
Having said that they will get serious and competent people - by the standards now prevailing - as and if they get closer to the possibility of real power. Tim Montgomerie is not an outlier but an advance guard.
The longer Kemi stays on as LOTO, the closer it will get. If Hunt became leader the Tories have a chance of being serious. If a Jenrick type gets it, all bets are off.
The chances as of now is that top of the bill in the next election is Lab v Reform.
As we've discussed before, I don't accept your thesis that Reform UK's trajectory is not right wing. You achieve that conclusion in a number of ways. Firstly, you say their anti-immigrant stance does not count as being right wing these days, but I think that's contentious. Nativism remains mostly connected to the right, even if there are a few examples of left-wing parties also going anti-immigrant. (You've mentioned the Danish Social Democrats, but I think there are significant differences between their approach and the usual populist right position seen with Reform UK.)
Reform UK have come out with a number of high-spending pledges and some nods to state intervention that would please a Labour Party member from 1981. However, that's a selective reading of the party. They also push "DOGE-style" cuts, rail against "woke" social liberalism, and want to move the NHS to an insurance model (which would be a huge reduction in the size of the state). This is all small state stuff. They oppose net zero and dabble in climate change denial, and in anti-vax nonsense. They don't want to open coal mines because they're left-wing; they want to open coal mines to own the libs and out of some sort of 1950s fantasy idea of the country. They are a fairly typical populist right party. They are MAGA wrapped in a Union Jack; Farage's love for Trump is explicit. The other obvious comparison after Trump is Pierre Poujade.
It is also telling where Reform UK members are coming from. They are coming from the Conservative Party mostly, with a smattering coming from a lot further right.
So, yes, Reform UK are on the right. They may accept some of the post-war consensus that you label as centrism. They may make unachievable spending promises to the voters of Clacton. But they are not centrists. They are right-wingers, some conservative, some small state, some Poujadist, some reactionary, some nationalist.
As for whether they will attract serious and competent people... well, one Tim Montgomerie doesn't make a summer. Again, let us look at Trump. Trump attracted some serious and competent people, who either soon fell out with him or (e.g. Rubio, arguably Vance) abandoned all their seriousness and competence in favour of bending the knee.
I think the next election may well be Lab v Reform, but I don't expect Reform to be serious or competent. They will be offering fantasy spending plans and grievance politics, like Trump did.
Thanks. You make some excellent points. We are entirely agreed aas to your last paragraph. Ultimately I think we are labelling centrism differently - fair enough. I am relying, maybe overmuch, on the actual demands of the voters of Clacton (and 649 other seats) about big state free stuff. I agree their extremes dabble in outlandish nonsense - but this mirrors the Labour hard left who also do while I also label Labour as centrist.
I also accept that they are social conservatives - hence I identify them as Old Labour 1945-1970.
The DOGE style cuts stuff is just their silly version of the routine all party 'efficiency savings'. Wait and see.
As to climate change, lots of people who accept climate change don't accept 'Net Zero'. I think we must await their manifesto.
I am trying to read behind the rubbish as to how they would try to govern, and what will be in their 2029 manifesto. I predict high spend, therefore high tax, centrist welfarism with some bells and whistles and closed borders.
Farage was a big fan of Truss' budget, they will be low tax and big spend (at least for their supporters) populists, even if not fiscal conservatives as you say
If Reform govern they will not significantly reduce the tax take, unless they do so by accident as they crash the economy by losing the market's trust. They will contine to be, like all other parties, high tax and high spend.
Reform have already committed to scrap inheritance tax and take all those earning under £20k out of income tax and those earning under £70k out of the higher rate.
As a percentage of gdp the Tory and LD coalition government reduced spending and Osborne cut tax for the lowest earners and raised the IHT threshold
I don't think there can be any clarity about Reform's governing intentions until the 2029 manifesto is published and scrutinised by the IFS and others - which it will be.
My central prediction is this however: If Reform form a government, the TME as a % of GDP will not change significantly downwards (about 44% now), and the amount they aim to raise from tax (however they tinker) will remain at similar levels to the ones they inherit.
Jerusalem has a great sewage system thanks to British engineers and policy
Fun fact: one reason the Faroes has a remarkable road and tunnel system is because the British army and navy took over the place, 1940-1945, and they blasted all the roads and tunnels so they could move about. And lots of Faroese girls fell for the relatively rich, urbane Tommies, which caused friction…
So, we can build infrastructure in Israel and the Faroes, but not at home where it’s desperately needed.
Perhaps we should get somebody else's military to come here and build stuff for us? Would cut out a lot of the planning delays to just have their general staff make the decisions.
Fake news! Trump is the Shakespeare of social media and generates memorable quotes at an astonishing rate.
Two gin-scented tears trickled down the sides of his nose. But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved Donald Trump.
Iran want nuclear weapons so they don’t get Ukrained. Can’t say I blame them.
Have you any idea that amount of trouble Iran causes in the Middle East? I know Israel are seen by many as the bad guys; but Iran is, if anything, far worse. They are utterly destabilising the region.
As is Israel at the moment. Look at Syria and Lebanon.
Many of the problems in Syria and Lebanon are caused by Iran's interference in those countries over the past few decades. Iran's involvement in Lebanon is well known, and Iran was the main entity propping Assad up in Syria for a decade - including loads of Iranian troops.
Yes, I don't like what Israel is doing in those countries at the moment (or Turkey in Syria, for that matter). But if you criticise Israel for that, then you should be howling with rage at what Iran has done to those countries in very recent history. Supporting Hezbollah and Hamas alone (even if they are from differing sects of Islam) has been a massive embuggering factor in the Middle East. And then you have their support for the Houthis in Yemen.
I don't see why people (like @Roger last night) seem so keen to give Iran a free pass, whilst savaging Israel.
Because I've worked in the area many times and it's multi faceted. There aren't goodies and baddies as that clown Bartholomew Roberts keeps telling us. He's clearly never been to the region.
If you can only go to one place go to Beirut. There's a very educated and well informed population with a roughly equal number of Christians and Muslims. If you go for a drink with any of them they will love to talk politics with you all night though if you start by saying 'Hezbollah are evil' they might well ask you why do you think that?
“If Russia invades NATO allies, are you going to recommend to the President that we fulfil our Article 5 obligations?” — Democrats press SecDef Hegseth https://x.com/ralakbar/status/1933226330159800816
How can workers err work undocumented in the USA. Are there not P45, tax code, P60 etc equivalents ?!?
I mean yes of course there are people working illegally here, but no British PM could get up and start spouting off about how a crackdown would hurt restaurants, hand car washes and barber shops; Starmer would be utterly crucified for it !
How can workers err work undocumented in the USA. Are there not P45, tax code, P60 etc equivalents ?!?
Large chunks of the American economy are utterly dependent on cheap migrant labour. Makes the U.K. look like Switzerland.
Plus you have the usual contrast of utter opposites. So illegal migration is illegal. But is a number of states, that’s no barrier to driving licenses, renting. Oh, and especially having a job.
Indeed, laws are often put in place to make it *easier* for the undocumented to do these things.
It’s a bit like gambling - banned. Apart from Las Vegas and all the casinos on Indian Land and ….
Spot the almost subliminal flash of Rachel Reeves towards the end of Clarkson's Farm S4 E8!
I like Clarkson's Farm but that stuff really winds me up. Whatever you think of the IHT change, the motivation for it was to prevent people like Clarkson inflating land prices by using it as a tax dodge. Part of the reason someone like Kaleb struggles to buy a farm is because the agricultural returns are so small, so the breakeven point is sometimes centuries in the future.
I'd forgive him if at the end of the next season he sells the land to Kaleb for a fair price for use as a farm (e.g. something like £0).
Labour should have just exempted family farms and small businesses held for 2 generations or more from the IHT tax changes, that way tax dodgers would still have been hit and not been competing with the likes of Kaleb to buy farmland but traditional farming families wouldn't
Simpler - the IHT would be due when the land is sold. If the land is inherited again, then the IHT is replaced with the latest value, not doubled up.
So if you keep the family farm in the family - no tax. If you make money from selling it, you pay the IHT out of that.
I think tax could have been raised in a fairer way by leaving IHT alone and by getting rid of "rebasing" for CGT on death.
I inherited a business from my Dad. He'd built it from scratch so was sitting on a large unrealised gain. I inherited it with zero CGT and zero IHT. Happy as that made me, it seems unfair.
CGT is only payable on disposal, so getting rid of rebasing doesn't trigger sob stories about family farms having to be sold to meet a tax bill on death, but it does disincentivise the use of farmland to shelter "passive" wealth and pass it to the next generation.
(With inflation likely to be more of an issue in the next 20 years than it was in the last 20, we also need to look at reintroducing indexation for CGT, especially if the headline rate is going up any further, but that is a separate point).
But this assumes, does it not, that the issue the government is addressing is untaxed gains, rather than high net worth individuals looking to avoid tax on the transfer of assets at death?
I think there are edge cases, which the government interestingly is making no effort to close, but the base case is extremely wealthy individuals using land as a vehicle to avoid IHT.
I'm assuming the issue the government should be addressing is how to raise more tax without making itself even more unpopular. Right or wrong, IHT is an unpopular tax, even among people unlikely to pay it.
The interesting thing to me is that the government is making no effort to accommodate complaints about IHT on agricultural land. Which suggests to me they don't see it as particularly unpopular, or damaging to them.
How can workers err work undocumented in the USA. Are there not P45, tax code, P60 etc equivalents ?!?
Large chunks of the American economy are utterly dependent on cheap migrant labour. Makes the U.K. look like Switzerland.
Plus you have the usual contrast of utter opposites. So illegal migration is illegal. But is a number of states, that’s no barrier to driving licenses, renting. Oh, and especially having a job.
Indeed, laws are often put in place to make it *easier* for the undocumented to do these things.
It’s a bit like gambling - banned. Apart from Las Vegas and all the casinos on Indian Land and ….
If that's the case why not just make getting a visa from Mexico to work relatively simple, just a very odd system rbh
How can workers err work undocumented in the USA. Are there not P45, tax code, P60 etc equivalents ?!?
Large chunks of the American economy are utterly dependent on cheap migrant labour. Makes the U.K. look like Switzerland.
Plus you have the usual contrast of utter opposites. So illegal migration is illegal. But is a number of states, that’s no barrier to driving licenses, renting. Oh, and especially having a job.
Indeed, laws are often put in place to make it *easier* for the undocumented to do these things.
It’s a bit like gambling - banned. Apart from Las Vegas and all the casinos on Indian Land and ….
Yep: employing Americans is incredibly regulation heavy. By contrast, employing the undocumented is cheap and regulation free.
Plus, there are no negative consequences for hiring the undocumented.
“If Russia invades NATO allies, are you going to recommend to the President that we fulfil our Article 5 obligations?” — Democrats press SecDef Hegseth https://x.com/ralakbar/status/1933226330159800816
Iran want nuclear weapons so they don’t get Ukrained. Can’t say I blame them.
Have you any idea that amount of trouble Iran causes in the Middle East? I know Israel are seen by many as the bad guys; but Iran is, if anything, far worse. They are utterly destabilising the region.
As is Israel at the moment. Look at Syria and Lebanon.
Many of the problems in Syria and Lebanon are caused by Iran's interference in those countries over the past few decades. Iran's involvement in Lebanon is well known, and Iran was the main entity propping Assad up in Syria for a decade - including loads of Iranian troops.
Yes, I don't like what Israel is doing in those countries at the moment (or Turkey in Syria, for that matter). But if you criticise Israel for that, then you should be howling with rage at what Iran has done to those countries in very recent history. Supporting Hezbollah and Hamas alone (even if they are from differing sects of Islam) has been a massive embuggering factor in the Middle East. And then you have their support for the Houthis in Yemen.
I don't see why people (like @Roger last night) seem so keen to give Iran a free pass, whilst savaging Israel.
Because I've worked in the area many times and it's multi faceted. There aren't goodies and baddies as that clown Bartholomew Roberts keeps telling us. He's clearly never been to the region.
If you can only go to one place go to Beirut. There's a very educated and well informed population with a roughly equal number of Christians and Muslims. If you go for a drink with any of them they will love to talk politics with you all night though if you start by saying 'Hezbollah are evil' they might well ask you why do you think that?
As a start, if you are having a drink with them, they aren’t Hezbollah.
Bill Kristol @BillKristol · 29m I dunno, but maybe Democratic members of Congress shouldn't go the White House picnic tonight and pretend everything's fine and dandy, unless and until Sen. Padilla gets a phone call apologizing for what happened from Donald Trump?
“If Russia invades NATO allies, are you going to recommend to the President that we fulfil our Article 5 obligations?” — Democrats press SecDef Hegseth https://x.com/ralakbar/status/1933226330159800816
The elephant in the room is that article 5 obligations are much weaker than most people think. It doesn’t mean that the US is obliged to go to war on behalf of a NATO member.
“If Russia invades NATO allies, are you going to recommend to the President that we fulfil our Article 5 obligations?” — Democrats press SecDef Hegseth https://x.com/ralakbar/status/1933226330159800816
@TheScreamingEagles needs to take back everything he has said about the inadequacies in Morris Dancer's historical knowledge...
Trump: "Russia fought with us in WWII and everybody hates them. And Germany and Japan, they're fine — some day somebody will explain that...Everybody hates Russia and they love Germany and Japan...It's a strange world." https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/1933207285733756966
It's almost as though other things happened after WW2, but he's a busy genius, we cannot expect him to know that.
It’s almost like he has a disease that means he’s living in the past and he’s forgotten what happened over the past 35 years
“ Though they murdered six million, In the ovens they fried. The Germans now too have God on their side.”
After “not getting anything on e-gates after all” it looks like the UK will also be excluded from the EU defence fund entirely. This is what he got in exchange for handing TWELVE YEARS of fishing UK waters to France
@TheScreamingEagles needs to take back everything he has said about the inadequacies in Morris Dancer's historical knowledge...
Trump: "Russia fought with us in WWII and everybody hates them. And Germany and Japan, they're fine — some day somebody will explain that...Everybody hates Russia and they love Germany and Japan...It's a strange world." https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/1933207285733756966
It's almost as though other things happened after WW2, but he's a busy genius, we cannot expect him to know that.
It’s almost like he has a disease that means he’s living in the past and he’s forgotten what happened over the past 35 years
“ Though they murdered six million, In the ovens they fried. The Germans now too have God on their side.”
To our knowledge, Bob Dylan has only mentioned Donald Trump once – passing reference in his book Chronicles. As ever, the gnomic wisdom of Dylan is perceptive – he wrote:
“I mean, who’s the last individual performer that you can think of – Elton John, maybe? I’m talking about artists with the willpower not to conform to anybody’s reality but their own. Patsy Cline and Billy Lee Riley. Plato and Socrates, Whitman and Emerson. Slim Harpo and Donald Trump. It’s a lost art form. I don’t know who else does it beside myself, to tell you the truth.”
He is the most articulate American in the political system today. But I fear his optimism that some Republicans in the Senate will call this out as the bully boy fascism that it is will come to naught.
Comments
@GavinNewsom
·
35m
MAJOR WIN: Trump just reversed course on immigration.
https://x.com/samstein/status/1933224275831369733
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewKuhclROA0
Now, sure, in most of those seats the major beneficiary will be Reform. But we shouldn't underestimate the extent to which a Conservative vote share that drops to roughly the same level as the LibDems creates a lot of opportunities for them.
When I did the Pennine Way I found the unveiling of High Cup Nick to be much more dramatic.
"Vote Starmer- the alternatives are even worse" isn't a great message, but it delivered a landslide less than a year ago.
I also accept that they are social conservatives - hence I identify them as Old Labour 1945-1970.
The DOGE style cuts stuff is just their silly version of the routine all party 'efficiency savings'. Wait and see.
As to climate change, lots of people who accept climate change don't accept 'Net Zero'. I think we must await their manifesto.
I am trying to read behind the rubbish as to how they would try to govern, and what will be in their 2029 manifesto. I predict high spend, therefore high tax, centrist welfarism with some bells and whistles and closed borders.
Due to increased regional tensions, the Department of State advises U.S. citizens in the Middle East and North Africa region to exercise increased caution. Historically, similar tensions have resulted in travel disruptions and increased security concerns for U.S. citizens in the region. U.S. citizens should enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) at step.state.gov to receive information and alerts and make it easier to locate you in an emergency overseas.
^ people getting delusional from ChatGPT use
Trump: "Russia fought with us in WWII and everybody hates them. And Germany and Japan, they're fine — some day somebody will explain that...Everybody hates Russia and they love Germany and Japan...It's a strange world."
https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/1933207285733756966
Old Labour 1945-70 were not socially conservative, not at the end. 1967 saw the legalisation of both abortion and homosexuality under Labour.
The Reform UK manifesto is absolutely not going to propose higher taxes. You cannot extrapolate from what you think Clacton’s voters want to what Reform UK will promise. (It’s not like Farage is hanging around in Clacton listening to his constituents anyway! He spends more time swanning around MAGA events.)
Reform UK are populist right, and will govern as populist right, if elected.
They're doing it for a shitload of money!
In office, they would struggle to defeat arithmetic and the bond markets, but that's another day's problem.
I'm more surprised to learn Mel Brooks is still alive.
https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1933152796439707795
Last autumn, we fixed the foundations.
This week, we showed Britain we will rebuild
As a percentage of gdp the Tory and LD coalition government reduced spending and Osborne cut tax for the lowest earners and raised the IHT threshold
No doubt some PBers knew this history; I didn't (though was vaguely aware of bits of it).
How one Kiwi tamed inflation
Inflation targeting is now standard in central banking. But it began with an offhand comment and a political gamble in New Zealand – long before economists took it seriously.
https://worksinprogress.co/issue/how-one-kiwi-tamed-inflation/
There's the other guy you post daily.
Way out in front.
Twitter is full of thousands of Anericans of Anglo descent saying that the survivor is not British, and they are more British than him. Subsequently then, the Mail has more thousands of openly racist posts, saying that Indian people cannot be British, thsn I've ever seen.
This is going to be a fantastic year for Britain.
Churns out nonsense for pennies on the dollar. So much more efficient and taxpayer friendly than the real thing.
My central prediction is this however: If Reform form a government, the TME as a % of GDP will not change significantly downwards (about 44% now), and the amount they aim to raise from tax (however they tinker) will remain at similar levels to the ones they inherit.
If you can only go to one place go to Beirut. There's a very educated and well informed population with a roughly equal number of Christians and Muslims. If you go for a drink with any of them they will love to talk politics with you all night though if you start by saying 'Hezbollah are evil' they might well ask you why do you think that?
It would explain a lot.
“If Russia invades NATO allies, are you going to recommend to the President that we fulfil our Article 5 obligations?” — Democrats press SecDef Hegseth
https://x.com/ralakbar/status/1933226330159800816
Plus you have the usual contrast of utter opposites. So illegal migration is illegal. But is a number of states, that’s no barrier to driving licenses, renting. Oh, and especially having a job.
Indeed, laws are often put in place to make it *easier* for the undocumented to do these things.
It’s a bit like gambling - banned. Apart from Las Vegas and all the casinos on Indian Land and ….
Fie on the PB-ers that commended it. Tsk
https://x.com/gavinnewsom/status/1933235335166898346
If they can handcuff a U.S. Senator for asking a question, imagine what they will do to you.
Plus, there are no negative consequences for hiring the undocumented.
Why would you hire an American?
Bill Kristol
@BillKristol
·
29m
I dunno, but maybe Democratic members of Congress shouldn't go the White House picnic tonight and pretend everything's fine and dandy, unless and until Sen. Padilla gets a phone call apologizing for what happened from Donald Trump?
It looked like generic stuff, so didn't bother.
If you're into graphically violent revenge drama, then Mercy for None might appeal.
Daft, but good.
So Ji-sub is excellent.
Sadly I fear its success is a sign of how poor TV drama is getting. The Golden Age is well behind us
“A brilliant but arrogant and troubled detective is rehired to investigate classic cold cases”
I mean, REALLY?! Somebody greenlit that knackered old pitch? Tbf it’s done well in ratings but that’s because audiences are stupid
At this rate I may have to switch to… novels
*shudders, internally*
@PeteButtigieg
·
50m
Today they have crossed a deep red line.
We, the people, must hold the president and his appointees accountable for this outrageous abuse against American liberty.
https://x.com/PeteButtigieg/status/1933253486830813584
Laura Loomer
@LauraLoomer
·
6h
Deport all of them and hire Americans to do the jobs.
Invest money into trade schools and farming programs to recruit American youth to be farmers.
In the ovens they fried.
The Germans now too have
God on their side.”
It’s not an original thought ( of course).
After “not getting anything on e-gates after all” it looks like the UK will also be excluded from the EU defence fund entirely. This is what he got in exchange for handing TWELVE YEARS of fishing UK waters to France
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/06/12/france-blocking-britain-from-eu-massive-defence-fund/
He is impossibly bad at politics. A cretin
https://www.clashmusic.com/news/bob-dylans-only-comment-on-donald-trump/
To our knowledge, Bob Dylan has only mentioned Donald Trump once – passing reference in his book Chronicles. As ever, the gnomic wisdom of Dylan is perceptive – he wrote:
“I mean, who’s the last individual performer that you can think of – Elton John, maybe? I’m talking about artists with the willpower not to conform to anybody’s reality but their own. Patsy Cline and Billy Lee Riley. Plato and Socrates, Whitman and Emerson. Slim Harpo and Donald Trump. It’s a lost art form. I don’t know who else does it beside myself, to tell you the truth.”