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Meet Reform’s new chairman – politicalbetting.com

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  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,374
    I've not posted anything on the admittedly minor scale trouble that has went on in Ballymena and a couple of other places here in NI. I've now chewed it over and with my working class Belfast hat on think there are lessons that other communities may take out of it.

    Anyone over in England who is complaining about undesirable immigrants might want to take note of the following.

    1. Complaining gets you nowhere.

    2. On the other hand, the cops, the politicians, the housing authorities or prevailing political convention that will flay people as racist if you do complain also count for nothing when faced with a community who know all about doing things in their own way and go ahead and do it.

    3. Buried amongst all the hand wringing is a blunt fact. The locals ran some of the genuine undesirables out of town and then when they turned up somewhere else went after them there. They won't be back in the area.

    4. Direct and violent action could, therefore, be said to have got a result. I appreciate this will be tough for many to swallow but there it is. There is a valid case to say thay it has.

    Will other communities who feel aggreived and ignored regarding some immigrants get that message? They might, which means you got a heap of problems.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,514
    Israel bombing Tehran right now…
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,439
    edited June 13

    Israel bombing Tehran right now…

    this may have been a targeted killing in #Iran with surgical precision, similar to #Israel's operations against #Hezbollah and #Hamas.
    https://x.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1933319941383483420

    They are also bombing the nuclear sites as well.

    I am just going to pop out and check the my nuclear bomb shelter generator is still working ok....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,597
    Yokes said:

    I've not posted anything on the admittedly minor scale trouble that has went on in Ballymena and a couple of other places here in NI. I've now chewed it over and with my working class Belfast hat on think there are lessons that other communities may take out of it.

    Anyone over in England who is complaining about undesirable immigrants might want to take note of the following.

    1. Complaining gets you nowhere.

    2. On the other hand, the cops, the politicians, the housing authorities or prevailing political convention that will flay people as racist if you do complain also count for nothing when faced with a community who know all about doing things in their own way and go ahead and do it.

    3. Buried amongst all the hand wringing is a blunt fact. The locals ran some of the genuine undesirables out of town and then when they turned up somewhere else went after them there. They won't be back in the area.

    4. Direct and violent action could, therefore, be said to have got a result. I appreciate this will be tough for many to swallow but there it is. There is a valid case to say thay it has.

    Will other communities who feel aggreived and ignored regarding some immigrants get that message? They might, which means you got a heap of problems.

    The Danish Social Democrats have the right approach to immigration in my opinion.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,151
    edited June 13
    Bombing "dozens" of sites and preparing for "days of battle"...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,151
    "My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier"

    Donald J Trump January 2025.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,151
    This is why I pray for world peace for an hour a day.
    Imagine what a state we'd all be in if I didn't.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,514
    dixiedean said:

    This is why I pray for world peace for an hour a day.
    Imagine what a state we'd all be in if I didn't.

    Thank you for your service
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,514
    Iranian President and Khamenei targeted apparently
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,368
    Israel Defense Forces@IDF8m
    𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐈𝐃𝐅 𝐥𝐚𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐝 𝐚 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐦𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞, 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐞, 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐛𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐤𝐞 𝐈𝐫𝐚𝐧'𝐬 𝐧𝐮𝐜𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐦.

    Dozens of IAF jets completed the first stage that included strikes on dozens of military targets, including nuclear targets in different areas of Iran.

    Today, Iran is closer than ever to obtaining a nuclear weapon. Weapons of mass destruction in the hands of the Iranian regime are an existential threat to the State of Israel and to the wider world.

    The State of Israel has no choice but to fulfill the obligation to act in defense of its citizens and will continue to do so everywhere it is required to do so, as we have done in the past.
    https://x.com/IDF/status/1933324595471454495
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,514
    Oh and a Federal Judge has found that Trump’s federalisation of the California National Guard was unlawful
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,514
    Iranian air defence seems to be absolutely non-existent
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,439

    Iranian air defence seems to be absolutely non-existent

    Didn't the Israelis destroy in a previous attack a few months ago?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,514

    Iranian air defence seems to be absolutely non-existent

    Didn't the Israelis destroy in a previous attack a few months ago?
    No idea but I hope we have some
  • The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 496
    Yokes said:

    I've not posted anything on the admittedly minor scale trouble that has went on in Ballymena and a couple of other places here in NI. I've now chewed it over and with my working class Belfast hat on think there are lessons that other communities may take out of it.

    Anyone over in England who is complaining about undesirable immigrants might want to take note of the following.

    1. Complaining gets you nowhere.

    2. On the other hand, the cops, the politicians, the housing authorities or prevailing political convention that will flay people as racist if you do complain also count for nothing when faced with a community who know all about doing things in their own way and go ahead and do it.

    3. Buried amongst all the hand wringing is a blunt fact. The locals ran some of the genuine undesirables out of town and then when they turned up somewhere else went after them there. They won't be back in the area.

    4. Direct and violent action could, therefore, be said to have got a result. I appreciate this will be tough for many to swallow but there it is. There is a valid case to say thay it has.

    Will other communities who feel aggreived and ignored regarding some immigrants get that message? They might, which means you got a heap of problems.

    Who decides they were "genuine undesirables"? What about the completely innocent people attacked in their homes by these arseholes?
  • vikvik Posts: 488

    Oh and a Federal Judge has found that Trump’s federalisation of the California National Guard was unlawful

    It's very encouraging, but I don't have any confidence that the Supreme Court won't overrule it.

    It depends on how much the Supremes fear a future Democratic President deploying the military to Red States.

    Once the precedent has been set, then a left-wing President could also deploy the military to deal with people threatening abortion clinics, or to disarm right-wing militias etc. I hope the Supremes understand this.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 770
    Surgical strikes = destroying apartment buildings....

    This is not going to end well
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,088
    edited June 13

    Yokes said:

    I've not posted anything on the admittedly minor scale trouble that has went on in Ballymena and a couple of other places here in NI. I've now chewed it over and with my working class Belfast hat on think there are lessons that other communities may take out of it.

    Anyone over in England who is complaining about undesirable immigrants might want to take note of the following.

    1. Complaining gets you nowhere.

    2. On the other hand, the cops, the politicians, the housing authorities or prevailing political convention that will flay people as racist if you do complain also count for nothing when faced with a community who know all about doing things in their own way and go ahead and do it.

    3. Buried amongst all the hand wringing is a blunt fact. The locals ran some of the genuine undesirables out of town and then when they turned up somewhere else went after them there. They won't be back in the area.

    4. Direct and violent action could, therefore, be said to have got a result. I appreciate this will be tough for many to swallow but there it is. There is a valid case to say thay it has.

    Will other communities who feel aggreived and ignored regarding some immigrants get that message? They might, which means you got a heap of problems.

    Who decides they were "genuine undesirables"? What about the completely innocent people attacked in their homes by these arseholes?
    The trouble is that events in Ballymena will have confirmed the view across government and the police that if it becomes known that attackers were immigrants of any stripe, there will be rioting. That they were right to hide the Southport attacker's ethnicity; they were right to lock up Lucy Connolly and the others because, well, look at Ballymena.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,567
    Penddu2 said:

    Surgical strikes = destroying apartment buildings....

    This is not going to end well

    I targeted terrorists
    You bombed civilians
    He is responsible for the deaths of women and children
    We took out military kit (Next to flats)
    They are bad people
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,834
    Andy_JS said:

    It feels like we've had more serious plane incidents over the last few years after a period between about 1990 and 2015 where there weren't that many (excluding terrorism, etc). But I haven't checked the statistics.

    As someone who follows such thing, I think you're wrong. Here are some incomplete figures for EU-registered aircraft and EU citizens (see figures 2 and 3):

    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Air_safety_statistics_in_the_EU

    And this has other figures, which also seem to show a reduction in recent years:
    https://asn.flightsafety.org/statistics/period/stats.php

    Though by its very nature, the information is spotty in nature: one crash can cause a big bar to appear when hundreds die, and the next year might have much fewer.

    I think your feeling comes from a couple of things. Accidents around the world get breathlessly reported on in the modern media as if they happened in your next town, whereas in the olden days, before the Internet, an accident in (say) China might have appeared in newspapers two days later. Also, because they are dramatic, people shout about accidents for clicks - and people treat general aviation accidents as though they were civil aviation accidents with hundreds of souls on board.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,316
    Yokes said:

    I've not posted anything on the admittedly minor scale trouble that has went on in Ballymena and a couple of other places here in NI. I've now chewed it over and with my working class Belfast hat on think there are lessons that other communities may take out of it.

    Anyone over in England who is complaining about undesirable immigrants might want to take note of the following.

    1. Complaining gets you nowhere.

    2. On the other hand, the cops, the politicians, the housing authorities or prevailing political convention that will flay people as racist if you do complain also count for nothing when faced with a community who know all about doing things in their own way and go ahead and do it.

    3. Buried amongst all the hand wringing is a blunt fact. The locals ran some of the genuine undesirables out of town and then when they turned up somewhere else went after them there. They won't be back in the area.

    4. Direct and violent action could, therefore, be said to have got a result. I appreciate this will be tough for many to swallow but there it is. There is a valid case to say thay it has.

    Will other communities who feel aggreived and ignored regarding some immigrants get that message? They might, which means you got a heap of problems.

    Didn't a loyalist MLA allegedly tip off the protesters (vigilantes) as to where to find displaced Romanian families? Larne and Ballymena are not exactly neighbouring towns. So setting fire to Larne Leisure Centre is an act of criminality, under no circumstances should it be celebrated.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,752

    AnneJGP said:

    IanB2 said:

    Looks like the BBC has spoken to a cousin of the survivor, who has verified his identity.

    Seat 11A; amazing.
    What was so special about seat 11A, one wonders?
    Possibly its location vs the wing box - structure that attaches the wings to fuselage. Strongest structure in the plane.
    There's a whole field of study there.

    By the exit over the wing root *, or towards the back of the plane **.

    The airline probably makes a difference - eg not banana Republic or Russia.

    If in the USA, take your small bag out with you, or ICE or Immigtration may lock you up.

    * May not help if the failure is a door failure of that door.
    ** Not much good if that's where a fire starts.
    *** Don't be on one where the maintenance crew confuse kg and lb. See Gimli Glider (new to me).
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,913
    edited June 13

    Yokes said:

    I've not posted anything on the admittedly minor scale trouble that has went on in Ballymena and a couple of other places here in NI. I've now chewed it over and with my working class Belfast hat on think there are lessons that other communities may take out of it.

    Anyone over in England who is complaining about undesirable immigrants might want to take note of the following.

    1. Complaining gets you nowhere.

    2. On the other hand, the cops, the politicians, the housing authorities or prevailing political convention that will flay people as racist if you do complain also count for nothing when faced with a community who know all about doing things in their own way and go ahead and do it.

    3. Buried amongst all the hand wringing is a blunt fact. The locals ran some of the genuine undesirables out of town and then when they turned up somewhere else went after them there. They won't be back in the area.

    4. Direct and violent action could, therefore, be said to have got a result. I appreciate this will be tough for many to swallow but there it is. There is a valid case to say thay it has.

    Will other communities who feel aggreived and ignored regarding some immigrants get that message? They might, which means you got a heap of problems.

    Who decides they were "genuine undesirables"? What about the completely innocent people attacked in their homes by these arseholes?
    What definitely-not-a-racist with legitimate concerns hasn’t wanted to set a Filipino neighbour’s car alight because two Romanian 14 year olds have been charged with sexual assault?
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 944
    isam said:

    Surely not?

    BREAKING - Labour Government buying up dozens of asylum seeker hotels and will rebrand bedrooms as ‘privately rented residential accommodation’ (via @GuidoFawkes)

    https://x.com/joerichlaw/status/1933200842280095844?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Hmmm...rather than paying someone else's commercial mortgage on property they need, they have acquired an asset that reduces ongoing costs. Off the revenue line onto the capital line.

    No much deep thinking here if you are triggered by Guido.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,241

    Yokes said:

    I've not posted anything on the admittedly minor scale trouble that has went on in Ballymena and a couple of other places here in NI. I've now chewed it over and with my working class Belfast hat on think there are lessons that other communities may take out of it.

    Anyone over in England who is complaining about undesirable immigrants might want to take note of the following.

    1. Complaining gets you nowhere.

    2. On the other hand, the cops, the politicians, the housing authorities or prevailing political convention that will flay people as racist if you do complain also count for nothing when faced with a community who know all about doing things in their own way and go ahead and do it.

    3. Buried amongst all the hand wringing is a blunt fact. The locals ran some of the genuine undesirables out of town and then when they turned up somewhere else went after them there. They won't be back in the area.

    4. Direct and violent action could, therefore, be said to have got a result. I appreciate this will be tough for many to swallow but there it is. There is a valid case to say thay it has.

    Will other communities who feel aggreived and ignored regarding some immigrants get that message? They might, which means you got a heap of problems.

    Who decides they were "genuine undesirables"? What about the completely innocent people attacked in their homes by these arseholes?
    Not a huge step from that back to the days of paramilitary kneecappings or worse.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,241

    Israel bombing Tehran right now…

    this may have been a targeted killing in #Iran with surgical precision, similar to #Israel's operations against #Hezbollah and #Hamas.
    https://x.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1933319941383483420

    They are also bombing the nuclear sites as well.

    I am just going to pop out and check the my nuclear bomb shelter generator is still working ok....
    Don't worry.
    Donald Trump and Tulsi Gabbard are coordinating the US response.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 944

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Just realised London property is about to crater

    Why do you think this is going to happen? Wouldn't be surprised if it does: nothing lasts forever, and London property prices have been going up since about 1981.
    Mass immigration plus technological change - we’re at a tipping point with both

    I reckon prices could plunge in a way we have never seen before. Total implosion
    Cheap housing for London. The Starmer Government couldn't be that lucky could they?

    All the Rachmanesque landlords will be f*****!
    They're already getting into a froth about RRB and Westminster promising "lifetime tenancies". For those that don't want to follow the Renter's Reform Bill.

    TLDR : RRB = Lifetime tenancies for all tenants not just those in Westminster.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,913
    I laughed.
    Who’d have thought someone addicted to defacing their own features would be similarly capable of deforming facts and truth?

    https://x.com/keithedwards/status/1933289889539186861?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,862
    Nigelb said:

    Yokes said:

    I've not posted anything on the admittedly minor scale trouble that has went on in Ballymena and a couple of other places here in NI. I've now chewed it over and with my working class Belfast hat on think there are lessons that other communities may take out of it.

    Anyone over in England who is complaining about undesirable immigrants might want to take note of the following.

    1. Complaining gets you nowhere.

    2. On the other hand, the cops, the politicians, the housing authorities or prevailing political convention that will flay people as racist if you do complain also count for nothing when faced with a community who know all about doing things in their own way and go ahead and do it.

    3. Buried amongst all the hand wringing is a blunt fact. The locals ran some of the genuine undesirables out of town and then when they turned up somewhere else went after them there. They won't be back in the area.

    4. Direct and violent action could, therefore, be said to have got a result. I appreciate this will be tough for many to swallow but there it is. There is a valid case to say thay it has.

    Will other communities who feel aggreived and ignored regarding some immigrants get that message? They might, which means you got a heap of problems.

    Who decides they were "genuine undesirables"? What about the completely innocent people attacked in their homes by these arseholes?
    Not a huge step from that back to the days of paramilitary kneecappings or worse.
    The punishment beatings never stopped but you english just turned a blind eye to them.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,752
    edited June 13

    Yokes said:

    I've not posted anything on the admittedly minor scale trouble that has went on in Ballymena and a couple of other places here in NI. I've now chewed it over and with my working class Belfast hat on think there are lessons that other communities may take out of it.

    Anyone over in England who is complaining about undesirable immigrants might want to take note of the following.

    1. Complaining gets you nowhere.

    2. On the other hand, the cops, the politicians, the housing authorities or prevailing political convention that will flay people as racist if you do complain also count for nothing when faced with a community who know all about doing things in their own way and go ahead and do it.

    3. Buried amongst all the hand wringing is a blunt fact. The locals ran some of the genuine undesirables out of town and then when they turned up somewhere else went after them there. They won't be back in the area.

    4. Direct and violent action could, therefore, be said to have got a result. I appreciate this will be tough for many to swallow but there it is. There is a valid case to say thay it has.

    Will other communities who feel aggreived and ignored regarding some immigrants get that message? They might, which means you got a heap of problems.

    Who decides they were "genuine undesirables"? What about the completely innocent people attacked in their homes by these arseholes?
    What definitely-not-a-racist with legitimate concerns hasn’t wanted to set a Filipino neighbour’s car alight because two Romanian 14 year olds have been charged with sexual assault?
    Yaxley-Lennon's fellow travellers. It's turbo Daily Mail - who can we blame today ?

    IMO the events are partially a reminder how far NI (and I) still have to go.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,862
    edited June 13
    MattW said:

    Yokes said:

    I've not posted anything on the admittedly minor scale trouble that has went on in Ballymena and a couple of other places here in NI. I've now chewed it over and with my working class Belfast hat on think there are lessons that other communities may take out of it.

    Anyone over in England who is complaining about undesirable immigrants might want to take note of the following.

    1. Complaining gets you nowhere.

    2. On the other hand, the cops, the politicians, the housing authorities or prevailing political convention that will flay people as racist if you do complain also count for nothing when faced with a community who know all about doing things in their own way and go ahead and do it.

    3. Buried amongst all the hand wringing is a blunt fact. The locals ran some of the genuine undesirables out of town and then when they turned up somewhere else went after them there. They won't be back in the area.

    4. Direct and violent action could, therefore, be said to have got a result. I appreciate this will be tough for many to swallow but there it is. There is a valid case to say thay it has.

    Will other communities who feel aggreived and ignored regarding some immigrants get that message? They might, which means you got a heap of problems.

    Who decides they were "genuine undesirables"? What about the completely innocent people attacked in their homes by these arseholes?
    What definitely-not-a-racist with legitimate concerns hasn’t wanted to set a Filipino neighbour’s car alight because two Romanian 14 year olds have been charged with sexual assault?
    Yaxley-Lennon's fellow travellers. It's turbo Daily Mail - who can we blame today ?

    IMO the events are partially a reminder how far NI (and I) still have to go.
    hmm I wonder if a 14 year old girl would feel safer in Ballymena or outside a kebab shop in Telford ? Strikes me England has a bit of travelling to do itself.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,626
    Good morning, everyone.

    The Iranian retaliation can't be long in coming, one would've thought.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,699

    Good morning, everyone.

    The Iranian retaliation can't be long in coming, one would've thought.

    Already underway, according to CNN
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 994
    Yokes said:

    I've not posted anything on the admittedly minor scale trouble that has went on in Ballymena and a couple of other places here in NI. I've now chewed it over and with my working class Belfast hat on think there are lessons that other communities may take out of it.

    Anyone over in England who is complaining about undesirable immigrants might want to take note of the following.

    1. Complaining gets you nowhere.

    2. On the other hand, the cops, the politicians, the housing authorities or prevailing political convention that will flay people as racist if you do complain also count for nothing when faced with a community who know all about doing things in their own way and go ahead and do it.

    3. Buried amongst all the hand wringing is a blunt fact. The locals ran some of the genuine undesirables out of town and then when they turned up somewhere else went after them there. They won't be back in the area.

    4. Direct and violent action could, therefore, be said to have got a result. I appreciate this will be tough for many to swallow but there it is. There is a valid case to say thay it has.

    Will other communities who feel aggreived and ignored regarding some immigrants get that message? They might, which means you got a heap of problems.

    I think trying to put some kind of political gloss on riots misses the obvious point that most people who take part do so because violence and disorder is fun. It's like the people in LA who are looting Apple Stores and spraying the odd anti ICE slogan on the walls by way of justification. Or how organised football violence has nothing to do with football and everything to do with the fact that getting pissed and having a punch up is a fun way to spend A weekend for a lot of people. A particular cause or incident may spark a riot but once it does it just becomes a riot.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,543
    I thought that this was all turning quite serious for a while but whew

    UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has urged Iran and Israel to "step back and reduce tensions urgently", calling the strikes "concerning".

    "Escalation serves no-one in the region," he says.

    "Stability in the Middle East must be the priority and we are engaging partners to de-escalate. Now is the time for restraint, calm and a return to diplomacy."

    So that's that sorted then.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,932
    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    The Iranian retaliation can't be long in coming, one would've thought.

    Already underway, according to CNN
    Film of drones flying across Iraq on their way to Israel being posted on Twitter.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 24,613
    Battlebus said:

    isam said:

    Surely not?

    BREAKING - Labour Government buying up dozens of asylum seeker hotels and will rebrand bedrooms as ‘privately rented residential accommodation’ (via @GuidoFawkes)

    https://x.com/joerichlaw/status/1933200842280095844?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Hmmm...rather than paying someone else's commercial mortgage on property they need, they have acquired an asset that reduces ongoing costs. Off the revenue line onto the capital line.

    No much deep thinking here if you are triggered by Guido.
    Sensible decision if they're going to be needing the property permanently, not temporarily.

    Too bad they've been saying they won't need the properties soon though. Indeed at the Spending Review the Home Office budget was cut significantly, despite claims Police numbers were increasing, because of the savings of not using the properties any more.

    So how do you square that circle.

    What they're doing doesn't square with what they're saying, or the spending review that happened only two days ago.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 24,613
    Good to see Israel finally taking on Iran. No surprise Taco Trump chickened out of doing the right thing, thank goodness Israel is there to do if for us.

    Already confirmation some of Iran's top brass have been hit. Israel is getting good at this kind of Salami-slicing.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,752
    An interesting one I had missed from a few days ago. Ros Atkins doing a simple factcheck an attack on the BBC by Trump's White House Press Secretary

    TLDR: Karoline Leavitt had borrowed some claims from a student activist, and repeated them unchecked. And not understood how new reporting works. It was made up.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/c9wgq9vv51do
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,355
    DavidL said:

    I thought that this was all turning quite serious for a while but whew

    UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has urged Iran and Israel to "step back and reduce tensions urgently", calling the strikes "concerning".

    "Escalation serves no-one in the region," he says.

    "Stability in the Middle East must be the priority and we are engaging partners to de-escalate. Now is the time for restraint, calm and a return to diplomacy."

    So that's that sorted then.

    Let's be honest - Starmer and the UK government generally has about as much influence on the current middle east conflict as PB does. Not sure it matters what he says or does other than for his domestic audience.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,543
    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    The Iranian retaliation can't be long in coming, one would've thought.

    Already underway, according to CNN
    Film of drones flying across Iraq on their way to Israel being posted on Twitter.
    But Israel has Iron Dome whilst Iranian air defence is not much short of non existent. Israel also has quite incredible intelligence. The list of those they have targeted who are now dead is astonishing and will frighten Iran and their surrogates.

    We have already seen twice that large scale retaliation by Iran simply has no or minimal effect. I don't see it being different this time.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,684
    ...
    DavidL said:

    I thought that this was all turning quite serious for a while but whew

    UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has urged Iran and Israel to "step back and reduce tensions urgently", calling the strikes "concerning".

    "Escalation serves no-one in the region," he says.

    "Stability in the Middle East must be the priority and we are engaging partners to de-escalate. Now is the time for restraint, calm and a return to diplomacy."

    So that's that sorted then.

    Perhaps we can send him as a sort of peace envoy. I've been thinking we're too rich recently following Keir and Rachel's remarkable steadying of the ship, so would a lovely £30bn cheque to each party help pull them back from the brink?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 24,613
    DavidL said:

    I thought that this was all turning quite serious for a while but whew

    UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has urged Iran and Israel to "step back and reduce tensions urgently", calling the strikes "concerning".

    "Escalation serves no-one in the region," he says.

    "Stability in the Middle East must be the priority and we are engaging partners to de-escalate. Now is the time for restraint, calm and a return to diplomacy."

    So that's that sorted then.

    What an idiot.

    No, now is the time to take out Iran's nuclear capabilities.

    Not piss about and do nothing until they have nuclear weapons.

    Starmer is the living embodiment of Sir Humphrey.

    Stage 1: We say nothing is going to happen.
    Stage 2: We say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.
    Stage 3: We say maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we can do.
    Stage 4: We say maybe there was something, but it's too late now.


    Israel know there's something they can do and aren't waiting until its too late. Good for them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,543
    Ratters said:

    DavidL said:

    I thought that this was all turning quite serious for a while but whew

    UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has urged Iran and Israel to "step back and reduce tensions urgently", calling the strikes "concerning".

    "Escalation serves no-one in the region," he says.

    "Stability in the Middle East must be the priority and we are engaging partners to de-escalate. Now is the time for restraint, calm and a return to diplomacy."

    So that's that sorted then.

    Let's be honest - Starmer and the UK government generally has about as much influence on the current middle east conflict as PB does. Not sure it matters what he says or does other than for his domestic audience.
    I think you are being very unfair to PB. But lordy, he is a pompous irrelevant arse.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,699
    edited June 13
    Some chunky storm activity expected today, with Kent and Sussex being the most likely spots, also East Anglia
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,834
    It's now looking plausible that yesterday's tragedy was caused by a double engine failure on or at take-off.

    Some people are saying it cannot be, because engine failures are rare, and the odds of two happening at once are fantastically low. But this ignores the fact that they might not be independent engine failures; i.e. the thing that caused one engine to fail might also have affected the other. So if a bird strike hits one engine, it's more likely than usual that the other engine will also get hit (see the Miracle on the Hudson). Or if it is tainted fuel; both engines might get the same supply. Or they might even be semi-independent, but one causal on the other: e.g. if one engine failed on the runway, leading to a runway excursion which FOD'ed the other engine.

    So whilst a two-engine failure is far less likely than a one-engine failure, it is not *massively* less likely.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,834
    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    The Iranian retaliation can't be long in coming, one would've thought.

    Already underway, according to CNN
    Film of drones flying across Iraq on their way to Israel being posted on Twitter.
    But Israel has Iron Dome whilst Iranian air defence is not much short of non existent. Israel also has quite incredible intelligence. The list of those they have targeted who are now dead is astonishing and will frighten Iran and their surrogates.

    We have already seen twice that large scale retaliation by Iran simply has no or minimal effect. I don't see it being different this time.
    Iran mostly responds asymmetrically. More money and weapons to Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and others to cause Iran's enemies pain.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,543

    DavidL said:

    I thought that this was all turning quite serious for a while but whew

    UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has urged Iran and Israel to "step back and reduce tensions urgently", calling the strikes "concerning".

    "Escalation serves no-one in the region," he says.

    "Stability in the Middle East must be the priority and we are engaging partners to de-escalate. Now is the time for restraint, calm and a return to diplomacy."

    So that's that sorted then.

    What an idiot.

    No, now is the time to take out Iran's nuclear capabilities.

    Not piss about and do nothing until they have nuclear weapons.

    Starmer is the living embodiment of Sir Humphrey.

    Stage 1: We say nothing is going to happen.
    Stage 2: We say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.
    Stage 3: We say maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we can do.
    Stage 4: We say maybe there was something, but it's too late now.


    Israel know there's something they can do and aren't waiting until its too late. Good for them.
    Personally, I am more cynical about this. Netanyahu clearly felt that the genocide in Gaza wasn't quite cutting it anymore and that he needed a different emergency to justify his position.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,567
    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    The Iranian retaliation can't be long in coming, one would've thought.

    Already underway, according to CNN
    Film of drones flying across Iraq on their way to Israel being posted on Twitter.
    Apparently we're helping them get shot down.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,804
    Not for the first time, Trump looks like a chump
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,862
    MattW said:

    An interesting one I had missed from a few days ago. Ros Atkins doing a simple factcheck an attack on the BBC by Trump's White House Press Secretary

    TLDR: Karoline Leavitt had borrowed some claims from a student activist, and repeated them unchecked. And not understood how new reporting works. It was made up.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/c9wgq9vv51do

    So fking what ? The BBC along with Sky is just overloading on the US and Trump, it has next to bugger all to do with us. Maybe the BBC could spend more time reporting on the UK and events and issues here than Trump fetishing, it might at least justify the licence fee,
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,862

    MattW said:

    An interesting one I had missed from a few days ago. Ros Atkins doing a simple factcheck an attack on the BBC by Trump's White House Press Secretary

    TLDR: Karoline Leavitt had borrowed some claims from a student activist, and repeated them unchecked. And not understood how new reporting works. It was made up.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/c9wgq9vv51do

    So fking what ? The BBC along with Sky is just overloading on the US and Trump, it has next to bugger all to do with us. Maybe the BBC could spend more time reporting on the UK and events and issues here than Trump fetishing, it might at least justify the licence fee,
    Trump’s allies and followers seek to take the UK down the same path as the US. It’s thus important for us to see exactly how catastrophic Trump’s governance is.
    What absolute tosh. The UK is in a mess already mostly as a result f the Blairite policies of the last 25 years. Conditions in the States are totally different to here. And if youre worried about populism where's the focus on say Italy, France or Germany all of who have established parties and where conditions are closer to our own.

    Your response simply says this is politically biased reporting - which is not we are paying our licence fee for.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 944

    MattW said:

    An interesting one I had missed from a few days ago. Ros Atkins doing a simple factcheck an attack on the BBC by Trump's White House Press Secretary

    TLDR: Karoline Leavitt had borrowed some claims from a student activist, and repeated them unchecked. And not understood how new reporting works. It was made up.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/c9wgq9vv51do

    So fking what ? The BBC along with Sky is just overloading on the US and Trump, it has next to bugger all to do with us. Maybe the BBC could spend more time reporting on the UK and events and issues here than Trump fetishing, it might at least justify the licence fee,
    Do you pay a licence fee? Thought you were outside the UK.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,702
    Andy_JS said:

    Big Dom long form interview....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DTyGKZVNF8

    As often his claims the system of the government is broken, his solution was / is burn the whole system down.

    Two interesting claims, one is that the UK didn't take out various terrorists abroad because they got secret legal protection from the UK courts and that the Whitehall officials covered up the rape gangs, particularly the department of education and that is why they don't want an enquiry.

    Interesting claims, he must have taken legal advice that it's okay to say these things without getting sued.
    Neither statement is liable to being sued. There’s no libel as he’s not made claims about any individuals. Saying something untrue about a government department isn’t actionable.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,970
    edited June 13
    Yokes said:

    I've not posted anything on the admittedly minor scale trouble that has went on in Ballymena and a couple of other places here in NI. I've now chewed it over and with my working class Belfast hat on think there are lessons that other communities may take out of it.

    Anyone over in England who is complaining about undesirable immigrants might want to take note of the following.

    1. Complaining gets you nowhere.

    2. On the other hand, the cops, the politicians, the housing authorities or prevailing political convention that will flay people as racist if you do complain also count for nothing when faced with a community who know all about doing things in their own way and go ahead and do it.

    3. Buried amongst all the hand wringing is a blunt fact. The locals ran some of the genuine undesirables out of town and then when they turned up somewhere else went after them there. They won't be back in the area.

    4. Direct and violent action could, therefore, be said to have got a result. I appreciate this will be tough for many to swallow but there it is. There is a valid case to say thay it has.

    Will other communities who feel aggreived and ignored regarding some immigrants get that message? They might, which means you got a heap of problems.

    A lesson for climate activists and woke protestors there. Violence and disruption is effective.
    I'll forward your comments to JSO and the Tyre Extinguishers.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,570
    carnforth said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Just realised London property is about to crater

    Why do you think this is going to happen? Wouldn't be surprised if it does: nothing lasts forever, and London property prices have been going up since about 1981.
    1990 or so was the last property crash.

    I bought my first flat in 1998. For the 1988 price.
    Since the 1993 nadir, property prices in Cambridge have gone up 3.5x - in real terms. I assume some parts of London are the same.
    Nationally, prices have barely moved in twenty years in real terms. The big price appreciation was from the 90s crash to the mid-2000s. Of course some areas have seen big real terms price increases (including mine) but others have seen offsetting declines.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,315

    NEW THREAD

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,699

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    The Iranian retaliation can't be long in coming, one would've thought.

    Already underway, according to CNN
    Film of drones flying across Iraq on their way to Israel being posted on Twitter.
    But Israel has Iron Dome whilst Iranian air defence is not much short of non existent. Israel also has quite incredible intelligence. The list of those they have targeted who are now dead is astonishing and will frighten Iran and their surrogates.

    We have already seen twice that large scale retaliation by Iran simply has no or minimal effect. I don't see it being different this time.
    Iran mostly responds asymmetrically. More money and weapons to Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and others to cause Iran's enemies pain.
    Iran also knows it costs Israel millions to shoot down drones and missiles that cost a lot less
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,142
    Stereodog said:

    Yokes said:

    I've not posted anything on the admittedly minor scale trouble that has went on in Ballymena and a couple of other places here in NI. I've now chewed it over and with my working class Belfast hat on think there are lessons that other communities may take out of it.

    Anyone over in England who is complaining about undesirable immigrants might want to take note of the following.

    1. Complaining gets you nowhere.

    2. On the other hand, the cops, the politicians, the housing authorities or prevailing political convention that will flay people as racist if you do complain also count for nothing when faced with a community who know all about doing things in their own way and go ahead and do it.

    3. Buried amongst all the hand wringing is a blunt fact. The locals ran some of the genuine undesirables out of town and then when they turned up somewhere else went after them there. They won't be back in the area.

    4. Direct and violent action could, therefore, be said to have got a result. I appreciate this will be tough for many to swallow but there it is. There is a valid case to say thay it has.

    Will other communities who feel aggreived and ignored regarding some immigrants get that message? They might, which means you got a heap of problems.

    I think trying to put some kind of political gloss on riots misses the obvious point that most people who take part do so because violence and disorder is fun. It's like the people in LA who are looting Apple Stores and spraying the odd anti ICE slogan on the walls by way of justification. Or how organised football violence has nothing to do with football and everything to do with the fact that getting pissed and having a punch up is a fun way to spend A weekend for a lot of people. A particular cause or incident may spark a riot but once it does it just becomes a riot.
    There's no gloss to be put on it, that's the "working class Belfast hat" that has aided and abetted violent criminal sociopaths on both sides for decades. Abuse of the vulnerable including sexual abuse and child sex abuse was part and parcel of that.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,752
    Battlebus said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Just realised London property is about to crater

    Why do you think this is going to happen? Wouldn't be surprised if it does: nothing lasts forever, and London property prices have been going up since about 1981.
    Mass immigration plus technological change - we’re at a tipping point with both

    I reckon prices could plunge in a way we have never seen before. Total implosion
    Cheap housing for London. The Starmer Government couldn't be that lucky could they?

    All the Rachmanesque landlords will be f*****!
    They're already getting into a froth about RRB and Westminster promising "lifetime tenancies". For those that don't want to follow the Renter's Reform Bill.

    TLDR : RRB = Lifetime tenancies for all tenants not just those in Westminster.
    The RRB pretty much follows reforms which happened in Scotland back in 2015 or so.

    If an LL can't deal with it, they should leave the industry.

    On the "cheap housing in London" point, it may loosen up but not that much, and TBF there has already been a measure of rebalancing between regions as shown by regional price ratios over time.

    The claim that rental can go straight to owner occupied is rhetoric; it always has been.

    The more important background factor is tax breaks on OO property, which is the lion's share of the market. That can be addressed in part by making Council Tax proportional.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,752
    edited June 13

    MattW said:

    Yokes said:

    I've not posted anything on the admittedly minor scale trouble that has went on in Ballymena and a couple of other places here in NI. I've now chewed it over and with my working class Belfast hat on think there are lessons that other communities may take out of it.

    Anyone over in England who is complaining about undesirable immigrants might want to take note of the following.

    1. Complaining gets you nowhere.

    2. On the other hand, the cops, the politicians, the housing authorities or prevailing political convention that will flay people as racist if you do complain also count for nothing when faced with a community who know all about doing things in their own way and go ahead and do it.

    3. Buried amongst all the hand wringing is a blunt fact. The locals ran some of the genuine undesirables out of town and then when they turned up somewhere else went after them there. They won't be back in the area.

    4. Direct and violent action could, therefore, be said to have got a result. I appreciate this will be tough for many to swallow but there it is. There is a valid case to say thay it has.

    Will other communities who feel aggreived and ignored regarding some immigrants get that message? They might, which means you got a heap of problems.

    Who decides they were "genuine undesirables"? What about the completely innocent people attacked in their homes by these arseholes?
    What definitely-not-a-racist with legitimate concerns hasn’t wanted to set a Filipino neighbour’s car alight because two Romanian 14 year olds have been charged with sexual assault?
    Yaxley-Lennon's fellow travellers. It's turbo Daily Mail - who can we blame today ?

    IMO the events are partially a reminder how far NI (and I) still have to go.
    hmm I wonder if a 14 year old girl would feel safer in Ballymena or outside a kebab shop in Telford ? Strikes me England has a bit of travelling to do itself.
    How well do you know Telford? A comparison with how the place was alleged to be 15 years ago, when it has been much improved since then:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c849100101eo

    (Since we have a PB ban, I'm not going any closer to that subject.)

    I think the loyalist links around football clubs, and around the far right, are reasonably well documented.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,011
    Andy_JS said:

    kle4 said:

    tpfkar said:

    Cicero said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 30% (-1)
    LAB: 24% (+2)
    CON: 16% (=)
    LDM: 13% (-2)
    GRN: 11% (=)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 11 Jun.
    Changes w/ 4 Jun.

    Reform now definitely off their post LE highs and some sign of a minor Lab recovery in the works.
    Tories at 16 with FoN for 5 weeks

    6 pts down from the top dog party at this point in a parliament is OK for the gov't tbh. It's looking terminal for the Tories though. Annihilation awaits at the next GE if this carries on with Farage either PM or LOTO.
    The value bet would be Ed Davey as LOTO
    Id want to see them actually adding substantially to their 2024 polling before that would be remotely attractive. They are almost non existent in the Midlands, North and Wales, so I can't see the path to opposition as it stands
    If I squint, I can see how the Lib Dems get to 90 seats: hold what they have, get some inner city strongholds back (Cambridge, Bermondsey, Haringey, Cardiff Central) take the seats where they are close behind the Tories even if third ( Romsey, North Dorset, Hamble Valley, N Cotswolds, Hinckley etc)

    But I then look at how they get to 100, or 110, or 120, and I can't even imagine what the seats they'd need to win would be. Maybe look for a by-election to win and hold somewhere unexpected? If the Lib Dems can't break into areas they've had little strength in since ever, they aren't ever going to get to 100 seats. And I don't see anything in polling or local results that suggests that sort of breakthrough.

    So you'd need a complete landslide for Labour or Reform, to get the Lib Dems coming second. And that just doesn't ring true for the moment, with polarised and split voting all around.
    And they've got to hold on to the extremely efficient voting that got them 72 seats last time. I can see them losing a dozen seats even at 15% nationally. Unless Labour completely collapse they just won't have the 'numbers', and if it becomes a Reform Labour scrap or a tight Lab Con fight they will get squeezed
    This is the argument I've had with several Lib Demmers who proudly boast 'but, 72 MPs', and compare it with Reform's 5 off more votes. Leaving aside the principle of PR, I agree that if you're looking to maximise representation for a party in the mid-teens then the 2024 strategy worked fine (though still relies on tactical voting, which came a bit unstuck in the past in 2010, never mind 2015).

    But it also puts the sweet spot at about 72 MPs. The vote spread becomes increasingly inefficient thereafter as you go up, whereas although Reform hit breakthrough at a higher level, once they're there, the seats come flooding in. So the question is: what's the limit of your ambition. Do you see your ceiling as a largish third party or do you aspire to lead a government?

    On the other hand, the Lib Dems are being quite distinct from all the other three parties at the moment. unfortunately, they're not getting as much media coverage as they should be - particularly with something to say that the others aren't, whether on social care or Trump, Europe and foreign affairs. The comms team needs to be knocking harder on media doors.
    The LDs won pretty much all their target seats, that will be very hard to replicate. I'm sure they are trying as ever to get attention, but political commentators and the news just doesn't find them interesting enough I think.
    One of the easiest predictions to make for the next GE is that the LDs will hold most of their current seats. There might be a small number that are vulnerable to RefUK but not many.
    I think if Lab and RefUK swapped percentages in that poll, we wouldn't be too far from the Lib Dems coming second in seats. Not because they'd necessarily gain a huge number, but because the Tories would lose a lot, and RefUK would fail to break through on 24%, given the scope for tactical voting against them with a Lab/LD/G versus Con/RefUK split of 54% to 40%.
  • DavidL said:

    I thought that this was all turning quite serious for a while but whew

    UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has urged Iran and Israel to "step back and reduce tensions urgently", calling the strikes "concerning".

    "Escalation serves no-one in the region," he says.

    "Stability in the Middle East must be the priority and we are engaging partners to de-escalate. Now is the time for restraint, calm and a return to diplomacy."

    So that's that sorted then.

    What an idiot.

    No, now is the time to take out Iran's nuclear capabilities.

    Not piss about and do nothing until they have nuclear weapons.

    Starmer is the living embodiment of Sir Humphrey.

    Stage 1: We say nothing is going to happen.
    Stage 2: We say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.
    Stage 3: We say maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we can do.
    Stage 4: We say maybe there was something, but it's too late now.


    Israel know there's something they can do and aren't waiting until its too late. Good for them.
    I'd say Israelis are war junkies..but based on this post maybe Bart is even more of one..🥴
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