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London 2028 and beyond – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,506
edited June 5 in General
London 2028 and beyond – politicalbetting.com

The next London mayoral election is scheduled to take place in 2028 and under first past the vote anything could happen, it is entirely possible the winning candidate polls sub 20% as the centre-left vote fractures. I cannot see any value here other than say a cheeky tenner on Jeremy Corbyn at 20/1 or Ant Middleton at 12/1.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,058
    FPT
    Morning all.
    Britain Elects model has forecast the by election as follows (and they caveat by saying much less polling data than theyd have liked). They rate Reform beating Labour as possible but unlikely. Same for SNP not winning.

    SNP 34
    Lab 28
    Ref 23
    Con 7
    Green 3
    LD 3
    Others 2
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,846
    DavidL said:

    First?

    Like... who knows?

    Question one is whether Sadiq goes for a fourth term. I hope someone is saying "Maaaahte" to him if that is his plan. Boredom, if nothing else, points to Labour needing a fresh face next time.

    Assuming that Sadiq is sensible, who replaces him in the Labour process? Flip knows, but they ought to be favourite.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,114
    I was going to be first, but the WiFi on London Underground is sh1te.

    So I blame Sadiq Khan for the fact I came fourth
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,812
    wooliedyed said:

    FPT
    Morning all.
    Britain Elects model has forecast the by election as follows (and they caveat by saying much less polling data than theyd have liked). They rate Reform beating Labour as possible but unlikely. Same for SNP not winning.

    SNP 34
    Lab 28
    Ref 23
    Con 7
    Green 3
    LD 3
    Others 2

    Reply from fpt

    Weirdly four out of the ten candidates are from the right (Ref, UKIP, SCons & Family Party) assuming you don’t count SLab and their invisible Orange Order candidate as such.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,812
    What surprise are Trump & co going to spring on Merz during his visit to the Oval Office, faked video of AfD members being rounded up by commissars or a photoshop of Merz in Islamic garb?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,058
    Theuniondivvie said:

    wooliedyed said:

    FPT
    Morning all.
    Britain Elects model has forecast the by election as follows (and they caveat by saying much less polling data than theyd have liked). They rate Reform beating Labour as possible but unlikely. Same for SNP not winning.

    SNP 34
    Lab 28
    Ref 23
    Con 7
    Green 3
    LD 3
    Others 2

    Reply from fpt

    Weirdly four out of the ten candidates are from the right (Ref, UKIP, SCons & Family Party) assuming you don’t count SLab and their invisible Orange Order candidate as such.
    That is a lot of right for the fight.
    Be interesting to see if the Greens, LDs or even SCons end up behind one of the fringe lot
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,058
    Theuniondivvie said:

    What surprise are Trump & co going to spring on Merz during his visit to the Oval Office, faked video of AfD members being rounded up by commissars or a photoshop of Merz in Islamic garb?

    Play South Park on loop proving Merz is really Mr Mackey, m'kay?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,525
    DavidL said:

    First?

    Rants against the modern world. My MIL died in January. SSE are now threatening to cut her off.
    They have sent a letter saying "please get in touch if you need help"
    No phone number.
    Go on their website and they say that the customer number on their letter is too short.
    Chat has an option of speak to an advisor. When you click on it you can go back or close. No other options.
    Advising re bereavement is an option but nothing happens.

    We are changing our account.

    This is an egregious instance of a characteristic and strange phenomenon.

    We were all used in the olden days of the contemptuous indifference of monopolies like gas board, telephones etc; one of the reasons for the support there was for Thatcher's revolution, now 40 years old.

    One of its central points was that good service drives out bad, and in so many fields this works. Food retailers are keen to be open, accessible, and not poison you.

    Accessing big outfits can be so difficult - no email address, phones not answered, websites don't work or respond etc - while at the same time they swamp you with peremptoryy demands.

    I wonder why the invisible hand is not working better.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,525
    I follow politics more than average, but live 300 miles form London. Of the first 13 London candidates in the betting I don't know who five of them are, and the sixth is just a very vague name. Is it just me?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,249
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    Chiles comes across the word 'Edgelord'? Is he going to be explaining the word 'woke' to us next?

    I actually remember when I first encountered Edgelord. It was in 2016 in that famous twitter article on how the trains on the Island of Sodor had voted in the Brexit referendum. Henry, I believe, voted Leave purely to be an Edgelord.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,285
    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    First?

    Rants against the modern world. My MIL died in January. SSE are now threatening to cut her off.
    They have sent a letter saying "please get in touch if you need help"
    No phone number.
    Go on their website and they say that the customer number on their letter is too short.
    Chat has an option of speak to an advisor. When you click on it you can go back or close. No other options.
    Advising re bereavement is an option but nothing happens.

    We are changing our account.

    This is an egregious instance of a characteristic and strange phenomenon.

    We were all used in the olden days of the contemptuous indifference of monopolies like gas board, telephones etc; one of the reasons for the support there was for Thatcher's revolution, now 40 years old.

    One of its central points was that good service drives out bad, and in so many fields this works. Food retailers are keen to be open, accessible, and not poison you.

    Accessing big outfits can be so difficult - no email address, phones not answered, websites don't work or respond etc - while at the same time they swamp you with peremptoryy demands.

    I wonder why the invisible hand is not working better.
    The invisible hand has largely determined that people select suppliers for that sort of thing on headline price, not on what kind of reputation they have for customer service: so the businesses adapt by keeping the costs of their customer support division as low as possible. It's the same reason that low cost airlines are so popular even though the traditional airlines are likely to treat you better.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,602
    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    First?

    Rants against the modern world. My MIL died in January. SSE are now threatening to cut her off.
    They have sent a letter saying "please get in touch if you need help"
    No phone number.
    Go on their website and they say that the customer number on their letter is too short.
    Chat has an option of speak to an advisor. When you click on it you can go back or close. No other options.
    Advising re bereavement is an option but nothing happens.

    We are changing our account.

    This is an egregious instance of a characteristic and strange phenomenon.

    We were all used in the olden days of the contemptuous indifference of monopolies like gas board, telephones etc; one of the reasons for the support there was for Thatcher's revolution, now 40 years old.

    One of its central points was that good service drives out bad, and in so many fields this works. Food retailers are keen to be open, accessible, and not poison you.

    Accessing big outfits can be so difficult - no email address, phones not answered, websites don't work or respond etc - while at the same time they swamp you with peremptoryy demands.

    I wonder why the invisible hand is not working better.
    Consumers want good service, but they also want cheap energy or whatever. People rarely need to access customer helplines, but they pay for energy all the time, and when they are choosing suppliers are far more likely to make a decision on the basis of price, rather than customer experience, especially if they've had no experience of the provider's dire call centres.

    Of course all providers in the energy supply market face the same incentives, unless one differentiates itself by going for the higher quality service market at higher prices. But I'm not sure that's a viable strategy.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,161
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    It was @Leon who completed the critique. I like Chiles's writing too.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,114
    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    First?

    Rants against the modern world. My MIL died in January. SSE are now threatening to cut her off.
    They have sent a letter saying "please get in touch if you need help"
    No phone number.
    Go on their website and they say that the customer number on their letter is too short.
    Chat has an option of speak to an advisor. When you click on it you can go back or close. No other options.
    Advising re bereavement is an option but nothing happens.

    We are changing our account.

    This is an egregious instance of a characteristic and strange phenomenon.

    We were all used in the olden days of the contemptuous indifference of monopolies like gas board, telephones etc; one of the reasons for the support there was for Thatcher's revolution, now 40 years old.

    One of its central points was that good service drives out bad, and in so many fields this works. Food retailers are keen to be open, accessible, and not poison you.

    Accessing big outfits can be so difficult - no email address, phones not answered, websites don't work or respond etc - while at the same time they swamp you with peremptoryy demands.

    I wonder why the invisible hand is not working better.
    It is. It’s the with the complaint that airline leg room is getting less.

    Customers won’t pay a premium for better customer service or more leg room.

    They *say* that they will in surveys. And then they decide based on price. Companies are being rational.

  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 351
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    Very good article, and a very useful word.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,285
    StillWaters said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    First?

    Rants against the modern world. My MIL died in January. SSE are now threatening to cut her off.
    They have sent a letter saying "please get in touch if you need help"
    No phone number.
    Go on their website and they say that the customer number on their letter is too short.
    Chat has an option of speak to an advisor. When you click on it you can go back or close. No other options.
    Advising re bereavement is an option but nothing happens.

    We are changing our account.

    This is an egregious instance of a characteristic and strange phenomenon.

    We were all used in the olden days of the contemptuous indifference of monopolies like gas board, telephones etc; one of the reasons for the support there was for Thatcher's revolution, now 40 years old.

    One of its central points was that good service drives out bad, and in so many fields this works. Food retailers are keen to be open, accessible, and not poison you.

    Accessing big outfits can be so difficult - no email address, phones not answered, websites don't work or respond etc - while at the same time they swamp you with peremptoryy demands.

    I wonder why the invisible hand is not working better.
    It is. It’s the with the complaint that airline leg room is getting less.

    Customers won’t pay a premium for better customer service or more leg room.

    They *say* that they will in surveys. And then they decide based on price. Companies are being rational.

    Some airline customers will pay the premium, of course (especially if it's not their own money :)): you can find them in the "premium economy" and up classes. Those sections are generally small compared to the economy area at the back.

    I pay more for my internet provider because I value their customer service (they're a small business with a technical focus); but for most things I'm in the "pick on cost" brigade with everybody else. And unless you've specifically searched out the small customer focused niche business that matches your needs, you'll end up with one where customer service is a cost centre to be shrunk as much as feasible.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,557
    https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1930538896200183910

    Ukraine says it destroyed one and damaged two Iskander launchers that were preparing to fire ballistic missiles at Kyiv from Klintsy, Russia.

    Unless I am mistaken, this is the first successful Ukrainian hit on an Iskander TEL since the war began.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,341
    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    First?

    Rants against the modern world. My MIL died in January. SSE are now threatening to cut her off.
    They have sent a letter saying "please get in touch if you need help"
    No phone number.
    Go on their website and they say that the customer number on their letter is too short.
    Chat has an option of speak to an advisor. When you click on it you can go back or close. No other options.
    Advising re bereavement is an option but nothing happens.

    We are changing our account.

    This is an egregious instance of a characteristic and strange phenomenon.

    We were all used in the olden days of the contemptuous indifference of monopolies like gas board, telephones etc; one of the reasons for the support there was for Thatcher's revolution, now 40 years old.

    One of its central points was that good service drives out bad, and in so many fields this works. Food retailers are keen to be open, accessible, and not poison you.

    Accessing big outfits can be so difficult - no email address, phones not answered, websites don't work or respond etc - while at the same time they swamp you with peremptoryy demands.

    I wonder why the invisible hand is not working better.
    Inertia, largely - there's a class (mostly older?) who were never used to switching suppliers for things like energy and never did, but here David is indeed, it seems, switching away to someone (hopefully) more competent. The invisible hand needs a little help from the visible hands of consumers to do its work :wink:

    The egregious example here is, of course, water companies, where there is no choice. I've never been really clear (someone will probably enlighten me) as to why we can't have for water a similar setup to what we have for energy, where the customer facing companies are essentially, billing, admin and energy-futures companies. Perhaps because we don't have a national grid for water so there's less fungibility? Same, in some areas, with trains (East Coast is a happy exception here, so are some other places). If we can't have real competition then it becomes increasingly hard to see the argument for private ownership.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,414
    AV = rubbish!

    2011 AV referendum:

    No2AV = 68%
    Yes2AV = 32%

    :innocent:
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,341
    AugustusCarp2 said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    Very good article, and a very useful word.
    Have people on here really not heard 'edgelord' before? I'm pretty sure it was in circulation when I was at university a couple of decades ago. I'm sure I've seen people use the term on here, too (we have plenty of our own!).
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,552
    Good morning, everybody.

    The idea of a First Past the Vote voting system is intriguing.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,900
    Selebian said:

    AugustusCarp2 said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    Very good article, and a very useful word.
    Have people on here really not heard 'edgelord' before? I'm pretty sure it was in circulation when I was at university a couple of decades ago. I'm sure I've seen people use the term on here, too (we have plenty of our own!).
    Edgelord was a thing when USENET ruled and HTML was just a dream.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,525
    Fishing said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    First?

    Rants against the modern world. My MIL died in January. SSE are now threatening to cut her off.
    They have sent a letter saying "please get in touch if you need help"
    No phone number.
    Go on their website and they say that the customer number on their letter is too short.
    Chat has an option of speak to an advisor. When you click on it you can go back or close. No other options.
    Advising re bereavement is an option but nothing happens.

    We are changing our account.

    This is an egregious instance of a characteristic and strange phenomenon.

    We were all used in the olden days of the contemptuous indifference of monopolies like gas board, telephones etc; one of the reasons for the support there was for Thatcher's revolution, now 40 years old.

    One of its central points was that good service drives out bad, and in so many fields this works. Food retailers are keen to be open, accessible, and not poison you.

    Accessing big outfits can be so difficult - no email address, phones not answered, websites don't work or respond etc - while at the same time they swamp you with peremptoryy demands.

    I wonder why the invisible hand is not working better.
    Consumers want good service, but they also want cheap energy or whatever. People rarely need to access customer helplines, but they pay for energy all the time, and when they are choosing suppliers are far more likely to make a decision on the basis of price, rather than customer experience, especially if they've had no experience of the provider's dire call centres.

    Of course all providers in the energy supply market face the same incentives, unless one differentiates itself by going for the higher quality service market at higher prices. But I'm not sure that's a viable strategy.
    A further puzzle then. No-one contacts a utility etc unless they have to. Is it not more cost effective for the companies to provide rapid, skilled effective service for those who do rather than have every transaction lengthened by uselessness? Ditto banks. We don't spend all day making nuisance calls to gas providers and banks for fun.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,913
    edited June 5
    DavidL said:

    First?

    Rants against the modern world. My MIL died in January. SSE are now threatening to cut her off.
    They have sent a letter saying "please get in touch if you need help"
    No phone number.
    Go on their website and they say that the customer number on their letter is too short.
    Chat has an option of speak to an advisor. When you click on it you can go back or close. No other options.
    Advising re bereavement is an option but nothing happens.

    We are changing our account.

    I feel your pain.

    Really, as with Thames Water and OFWAT, this is an OFGEM problem. They know perfectly well that all the major companies are swindling their customers and refusing to provide proper customer contact arrangements but they never actually do anything about it.

    Heck, it took two years, a press campaign and threats from the parliamentary select committee to get them to pause the force-fitting of prepayment meters based on forged court documents.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,913
    AnneJGP said:

    Good morning, everybody.

    The idea of a First Past the Vote voting system is intriguing.

    I think it would lead to a corrupt political system where one man got Morpork.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,341
    pm215 said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    First?

    Rants against the modern world. My MIL died in January. SSE are now threatening to cut her off.
    They have sent a letter saying "please get in touch if you need help"
    No phone number.
    Go on their website and they say that the customer number on their letter is too short.
    Chat has an option of speak to an advisor. When you click on it you can go back or close. No other options.
    Advising re bereavement is an option but nothing happens.

    We are changing our account.

    This is an egregious instance of a characteristic and strange phenomenon.

    We were all used in the olden days of the contemptuous indifference of monopolies like gas board, telephones etc; one of the reasons for the support there was for Thatcher's revolution, now 40 years old.

    One of its central points was that good service drives out bad, and in so many fields this works. Food retailers are keen to be open, accessible, and not poison you.

    Accessing big outfits can be so difficult - no email address, phones not answered, websites don't work or respond etc - while at the same time they swamp you with peremptoryy demands.

    I wonder why the invisible hand is not working better.
    The invisible hand has largely determined that people select suppliers for that sort of thing on headline price, not on what kind of reputation they have for customer service: so the businesses adapt by keeping the costs of their customer support division as low as possible. It's the same reason that low cost airlines are so popular even though the traditional airlines are likely to treat you better.
    There's an interesting dynamic there - I don't always choose the cheapest for personal use, if there's not a big difference (particularly true of trains - TPE v Northern for any trip of reasonable distance) but price is certainly a big factor. But there's also a big market for business travel - this may vary by company, but for academia there's a ring-fenced budget for travel in each research grant and what you don't spend gets returned to the funder*, so there we definitely choose based on quality and reputation (there are limits, we don't run to business class on flights, but I'll choose a nicer airport and choose preferred airlines etc)

    *possibly slightly counter-productive - if we could reallocate travel budget then we'd be more likely to be more price-conscious and move things to pay for extra staff time to look at the interesting sub-questions that emerge during research, being more flexible/not requiring return of underspends could mean the money being used in more productive ways.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,936
    Reform's worst polling region in the UK is London so the Tories are still Labour's main opponents there. Cleverly if he is not Tory leader by then therefore has a shot at the Mayoralty if he runs.

    Though yes AV would help Labour in London where the Greens are likely to poll especially well and they would hope to gain most LD preferences too that would be less so UK wide given Reform are their main opponents and would pick up some Tory preferences
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,667
    wooliedyed said:

    Tice announced yesterday employees in the ten Reform councils will no longer be allowed to join the Local Govt defined benefit pension scheme and those already in it will get lower pay rises to compensate (penalise).

    Can't see that surviving tribunals

    Membership of the LGPS has always been voluntary - most join and those looking for a career in local Government join and do well from it (and I can't help but feel instead of throwing rocks at schemes like the LGPS, people should be asking why schemes like that don't exist in the private sector).

    Those who don't join get more money (as they don't pay in their contributions or indeed the employer's contributions which would save the authority money as well) so it's not a question of being penalised.

    Kent would continue to have obligations to the LGPS (as indeed do all councils) for decades to come.

    I think you would be looking at changing contracts from a legal point of view (which the authority could do at a cost).

    I'm also not sure of the legality of a mandatory "opt out" - a mandatory "opt in" would be eqaully wrong but offering staff an informed choice would be best.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,341
    wooliedyed said:

    Tice announced yesterday employees in the ten Reform councils will no longer be allowed to join the Local Govt defined benefit pension scheme and those already in it will get lower pay rises to compensate (penalise).
    Can't see that surviving tribunals

    If it did survive it would be an interesting natural experiment - are local government public sector workers useless lazy idiots or will they say f this shit and get another job (possibly in the next-door non-Reform council).
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,066
    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    First?

    Rants against the modern world. My MIL died in January. SSE are now threatening to cut her off.
    They have sent a letter saying "please get in touch if you need help"
    No phone number.
    Go on their website and they say that the customer number on their letter is too short.
    Chat has an option of speak to an advisor. When you click on it you can go back or close. No other options.
    Advising re bereavement is an option but nothing happens.

    We are changing our account.

    This is an egregious instance of a characteristic and strange phenomenon.

    We were all used in the olden days of the contemptuous indifference of monopolies like gas board, telephones etc; one of the reasons for the support there was for Thatcher's revolution, now 40 years old.

    One of its central points was that good service drives out bad, and in so many fields this works. Food retailers are keen to be open, accessible, and not poison you.

    Accessing big outfits can be so difficult - no email address, phones not answered, websites don't work or respond etc - while at the same time they swamp you with peremptoryy demands.

    I wonder why the invisible hand is not working better.
    Its not a very good market. I want to buy cornflakes - I go to three shops, find the cheapest price and then buy them. So the shops know they need to keep prices down if they want your custom. Energy suppliers work on yearly or longer timescales. If you are on it you will seek out the best deal and switch. Many are not, and inertia means they pay more for the electricity than if they switched. There is NO loyalty bonus - if anything its a penalty to stick with the same supplier. So there is no incentive to treat existing customers well.

    A better market would be if the customer could switch every day to the cheapest supply. Lets say company A has a lot of solar electricity (as its the sunniest month for 100 years) they can flog their electricity cheap and you can buy it cheap. Then the weather turns dull but windy and company B, who have a lot of turbines, can sell you it cheaper so you switch.

    That would be a proper market where the invisible hand might have a chance.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,525
    wooliedyed said:

    Tice announced yesterday employees in the ten Reform councils will no longer be allowed to join the Local Govt defined benefit pension scheme and those already in it will get lower pay rises to compensate (penalise).
    Can't see that surviving tribunals

    A comment attributed by Yahoo to the Daily Telegraph, which is a fair one:

    If Mr Tice really does believe in cutting taxpayer costs, then shouldn’t all five Reform UK MPs withdraw from the MPs’ generous, and expensive, defined benefit (DB) pension scheme?


    This is the stuff of social workers and bin emptiers strikes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,936
    wooliedyed said:

    FPT
    Morning all.
    Britain Elects model has forecast the by election as follows (and they caveat by saying much less polling data than theyd have liked). They rate Reform beating Labour as possible but unlikely. Same for SNP not winning.

    SNP 34
    Lab 28
    Ref 23
    Con 7
    Green 3
    LD 3
    Others 2

    I suspect Labour would be pleased with that, a 3.5% swing from SNP to Labour since the 2021 Holyrood election for the seat. The SNP will be relieved to hold on and Reform would be happy to have got nearly a quarter of the vote in a Scottish seat
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,066
    pm215 said:

    StillWaters said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    First?

    Rants against the modern world. My MIL died in January. SSE are now threatening to cut her off.
    They have sent a letter saying "please get in touch if you need help"
    No phone number.
    Go on their website and they say that the customer number on their letter is too short.
    Chat has an option of speak to an advisor. When you click on it you can go back or close. No other options.
    Advising re bereavement is an option but nothing happens.

    We are changing our account.

    This is an egregious instance of a characteristic and strange phenomenon.

    We were all used in the olden days of the contemptuous indifference of monopolies like gas board, telephones etc; one of the reasons for the support there was for Thatcher's revolution, now 40 years old.

    One of its central points was that good service drives out bad, and in so many fields this works. Food retailers are keen to be open, accessible, and not poison you.

    Accessing big outfits can be so difficult - no email address, phones not answered, websites don't work or respond etc - while at the same time they swamp you with peremptoryy demands.

    I wonder why the invisible hand is not working better.
    It is. It’s the with the complaint that airline leg room is getting less.

    Customers won’t pay a premium for better customer service or more leg room.

    They *say* that they will in surveys. And then they decide based on price. Companies are being rational.

    Some airline customers will pay the premium, of course (especially if it's not their own money :)): you can find them in the "premium economy" and up classes. Those sections are generally small compared to the economy area at the back.

    I pay more for my internet provider because I value their customer service (they're a small business with a technical focus); but for most things I'm in the "pick on cost" brigade with everybody else. And unless you've specifically searched out the small customer focused niche business that matches your needs, you'll end up with one where customer service is a cost centre to be shrunk as much as feasible.

    I used to love seeing people pay for speedy boarding on Easyjet at Bristol. They would be first in line to get on the bus to the plane and I would be last. But then because I got on the bus last, I was first off at the plane and first onto the plane...

    I'm not sure that was how the system was meant to work...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,812
    HYUFD said:

    wooliedyed said:

    FPT
    Morning all.
    Britain Elects model has forecast the by election as follows (and they caveat by saying much less polling data than theyd have liked). They rate Reform beating Labour as possible but unlikely. Same for SNP not winning.

    SNP 34
    Lab 28
    Ref 23
    Con 7
    Green 3
    LD 3
    Others 2

    I suspect Labour would be pleased with that, a 3.5% swing from SNP to Labour since the 2021 Holyrood election for the seat. The SNP will be relieved to hold on and Reform would be happy to have got nearly a quarter of the vote in a Scottish seat
    But how would YOUR party feel?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,414
    Theuniondivvie said:

    What surprise are Trump & co going to spring on Merz during his visit to the Oval Office, faked video of AfD members being rounded up by commissars or a photoshop of Merz in Islamic garb?


    Merz then replies: "Please! I like America! Fancy schmancy! What a cinch! Go fly a kite! Cat got your tongue! Hill of beans! Karoline Leavitt, what a dish! Marjorie Taylor-Greene, nice gams!"
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,521
    wooliedyed said:

    Tice announced yesterday employees in the ten Reform councils will no longer be allowed to join the Local Govt defined benefit pension scheme and those already in it will get lower pay rises to compensate (penalise).
    Can't see that surviving tribunals

    It won't, but it will flush out lawfare that will then add fuel to the fire for their election nationally.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,058
    stodge said:



    The Reform and Conservative choices will also be interesting - Reform will do well in some parts of London next year but not in others but probably not in enough parts to win the Mayoralty. The Conservatives are shattered and if they lose further ground next year, who would want the candidacy? Cleverly might see himself as a Party leader but a leader of what? The Greens, LDs and Corbyn will nibble round the edges but in the end Labour's support is deep enough and broad enough to win a fragmented race - against a single non-Labour candidate it would be different.

    I think Ant Middleton is frontrunner for Reform at the moment.
    Wrt Cleverly, I guess it depends on how he sees his chances in Braintree next time. Not good i'd imagine, its ripe Reform territory (I lived up the road in Pritis Witham once upon a moon). London stands a chance of being the only place in the UK the rump tories go forwards (in seats) next time (actually winning anything in Wales notwithstanding!) - Cleverly might fancy leading that from a position as leader of the Tory group in city hall and 'runner up' in the mayoralty - then he could stand in a London seat the following year perhaps. All a bit time tight though. I've got the Tories currently on 6 to max 15 London seats next time probably settling on about 10 and a moderate progression from 2024 compared to a likely retreat or at least fracturing elsewhere in England
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,641
    stodge said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Tice announced yesterday employees in the ten Reform councils will no longer be allowed to join the Local Govt defined benefit pension scheme and those already in it will get lower pay rises to compensate (penalise).

    Can't see that surviving tribunals

    Membership of the LGPS has always been voluntary - most join and those looking for a career in local Government join and do well from it (and I can't help but feel instead of throwing rocks at schemes like the LGPS, people should be asking why schemes like that don't exist in the private sector).

    Those who don't join get more money (as they don't pay in their contributions or indeed the employer's contributions which would save the authority money as well) so it's not a question of being penalised.

    Kent would continue to have obligations to the LGPS (as indeed do all councils) for decades to come.

    I think you would be looking at changing contracts from a legal point of view (which the authority could do at a cost).

    I'm also not sure of the legality of a mandatory "opt out" - a mandatory "opt in" would be eqaully wrong but offering staff an informed choice would be best.
    Back when I was a London councillor, there were some years when a third of the revenue brought in by the capped inflation-increase we were allowed in Council Tax had to be dedicated to the rising costs of the LGPS for current, retired and deferred members - back when low interest rates were magnifying (arguably over-estimating) the cost of scheme liabilities. I'd expect schemes are in much better shape now that interest rates are back at more 'normal' levels - but if the Trump Slump pushes rates back down, maintaining the funding level of local LGPS schemes could once again be a significant burden on local authorities.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,641
    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    wooliedyed said:

    FPT
    Morning all.
    Britain Elects model has forecast the by election as follows (and they caveat by saying much less polling data than theyd have liked). They rate Reform beating Labour as possible but unlikely. Same for SNP not winning.

    SNP 34
    Lab 28
    Ref 23
    Con 7
    Green 3
    LD 3
    Others 2

    I suspect Labour would be pleased with that, a 3.5% swing from SNP to Labour since the 2021 Holyrood election for the seat. The SNP will be relieved to hold on and Reform would be happy to have got nearly a quarter of the vote in a Scottish seat
    But how would YOUR party feel?
    Nowadays HY seems to have adopted Reform as his second friend, not seeing that it's his own party's mortal enemy.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,482
    Casino_Royale said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Tice announced yesterday employees in the ten Reform councils will no longer be allowed to join the Local Govt defined benefit pension scheme and those already in it will get lower pay rises to compensate (penalise).
    Can't see that surviving tribunals

    It won't, but it will flush out lawfare that will then add fuel to the fire for their election nationally.
    It might be good politics but once again the only winners are (employment) lawyers and the council wastes even more money.

    I think it’s a bit rich to call employment tribunal claims as “lawfare”. It’s just ordinary people asserting the rights given to them by Parliament
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,583
    The relentless decline of Bluesky continues

    https://x.com/paulg/status/1930194301129994394?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    How sad
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,393
    The Tories just need to pick someone who can win in London, whoever it is.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,641
    Boris Johnson cannot win back traditional Tory voters who turned to Reform UK, a new poll has found. Just 15 per cent of Reform supporters believe that the former Prime Minister would be a better pick for Downing Street than Nigel Farage, according to a YouGov survey.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,936
    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    wooliedyed said:

    FPT
    Morning all.
    Britain Elects model has forecast the by election as follows (and they caveat by saying much less polling data than theyd have liked). They rate Reform beating Labour as possible but unlikely. Same for SNP not winning.

    SNP 34
    Lab 28
    Ref 23
    Con 7
    Green 3
    LD 3
    Others 2

    I suspect Labour would be pleased with that, a 3.5% swing from SNP to Labour since the 2021 Holyrood election for the seat. The SNP will be relieved to hold on and Reform would be happy to have got nearly a quarter of the vote in a Scottish seat
    But how would YOUR party feel?
    Hamilton has never been a Tory seat, so while 7% would be disappointing it would only be 3% down on the 10% the Tories got in the Hamilton Westminster constituency in 2024
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,393
    wooliedyed said:

    FPT
    Morning all.
    Britain Elects model has forecast the by election as follows (and they caveat by saying much less polling data than theyd have liked). They rate Reform beating Labour as possible but unlikely. Same for SNP not winning.

    SNP 34
    Lab 28
    Ref 23
    Con 7
    Green 3
    LD 3
    Others 2

    My prediction that I posted on the VoteUK forum competition page is this.

    SNP 38.4%
    RefUK 29.6%
    Lab 19.7%
    Con 4.5%
    Green 3.8%
    LD 2.1%
    Others 1.9%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,936
    wooliedyed said:

    stodge said:



    The Reform and Conservative choices will also be interesting - Reform will do well in some parts of London next year but not in others but probably not in enough parts to win the Mayoralty. The Conservatives are shattered and if they lose further ground next year, who would want the candidacy? Cleverly might see himself as a Party leader but a leader of what? The Greens, LDs and Corbyn will nibble round the edges but in the end Labour's support is deep enough and broad enough to win a fragmented race - against a single non-Labour candidate it would be different.

    I think Ant Middleton is frontrunner for Reform at the moment.
    Wrt Cleverly, I guess it depends on how he sees his chances in Braintree next time. Not good i'd imagine, its ripe Reform territory (I lived up the road in Pritis Witham once upon a moon). London stands a chance of being the only place in the UK the rump tories go forwards (in seats) next time (actually winning anything in Wales notwithstanding!) - Cleverly might fancy leading that from a position as leader of the Tory group in city hall and 'runner up' in the mayoralty - then he could stand in a London seat the following year perhaps. All a bit time tight though. I've got the Tories currently on 6 to max 15 London seats next time probably settling on about 10 and a moderate progression from 2024 compared to a likely retreat or at least fracturing elsewhere in England
    Provided Cleverly isn't Tory national leader by the end of next year, which is not impossible, if Tory MPs removed Kemi he would probably be the likeliest candidate for a coronation by Tory MPs
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,482
    edited June 5
    HYUFD said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    wooliedyed said:

    FPT
    Morning all.
    Britain Elects model has forecast the by election as follows (and they caveat by saying much less polling data than theyd have liked). They rate Reform beating Labour as possible but unlikely. Same for SNP not winning.

    SNP 34
    Lab 28
    Ref 23
    Con 7
    Green 3
    LD 3
    Others 2

    I suspect Labour would be pleased with that, a 3.5% swing from SNP to Labour since the 2021 Holyrood election for the seat. The SNP will be relieved to hold on and Reform would be happy to have got nearly a quarter of the vote in a Scottish seat
    But how would YOUR party feel?
    Hamilton has never been a Tory seat, so while 7% would be disappointing it would only be 3% down on the 10% the Tories got in the Hamilton Westminster constituency in 2024
    Just a 30% decrease in vote share nothing to see here
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,812
    wooliedyed said:

    stodge said:



    The Reform and Conservative choices will also be interesting - Reform will do well in some parts of London next year but not in others but probably not in enough parts to win the Mayoralty. The Conservatives are shattered and if they lose further ground next year, who would want the candidacy? Cleverly might see himself as a Party leader but a leader of what? The Greens, LDs and Corbyn will nibble round the edges but in the end Labour's support is deep enough and broad enough to win a fragmented race - against a single non-Labour candidate it would be different.

    I think Ant Middleton is frontrunner for Reform at the moment.
    Wrt Cleverly, I guess it depends on how he sees his chances in Braintree next time. Not good i'd imagine, its ripe Reform territory (I lived up the road in Pritis Witham once upon a moon). London stands a chance of being the only place in the UK the rump tories go forwards (in seats) next time (actually winning anything in Wales notwithstanding!) - Cleverly might fancy leading that from a position as leader of the Tory group in city hall and 'runner up' in the mayoralty - then he could stand in a London seat the following year perhaps. All a bit time tight though. I've got the Tories currently on 6 to max 15 London seats next time probably settling on about 10 and a moderate progression from 2024 compared to a likely retreat or at least fracturing elsewhere in England
    Ha, just watched something entirely unrelated to politics on Youtube, and the default next video was from Reform & was Ant M's speech to the 2024 Reform conference. I assume that a) that costs a bit of money to have that shite peppering Youtube and therefore b) Middleton is a shoe in.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,641
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories just need to pick someone who can win in London, whoever it is.

    lol @ "just"
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,058
    edited June 5
    Andy_JS said:

    wooliedyed said:

    FPT
    Morning all.
    Britain Elects model has forecast the by election as follows (and they caveat by saying much less polling data than theyd have liked). They rate Reform beating Labour as possible but unlikely. Same for SNP not winning.

    SNP 34
    Lab 28
    Ref 23
    Con 7
    Green 3
    LD 3
    Others 2

    My prediction that I posted on the VoteUK forum competition page is this.

    SNP 38.4%
    RefUK 29.6%
    Lab 19.7%
    Con 4.5%
    Green 3.8%
    LD 2.1%
    Others 1.9%
    I think I'd agree almost entirely with that give or take. I'd have Reform a tad lower perhaps but yeah
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,637
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    wooliedyed said:

    FPT
    Morning all.
    Britain Elects model has forecast the by election as follows (and they caveat by saying much less polling data than theyd have liked). They rate Reform beating Labour as possible but unlikely. Same for SNP not winning.

    SNP 34
    Lab 28
    Ref 23
    Con 7
    Green 3
    LD 3
    Others 2

    I suspect Labour would be pleased with that, a 3.5% swing from SNP to Labour since the 2021 Holyrood election for the seat. The SNP will be relieved to hold on and Reform would be happy to have got nearly a quarter of the vote in a Scottish seat
    But how would YOUR party feel?
    Hamilton has never been a Tory seat, so while 7% would be disappointing it would only be 3% down on the 10% the Tories got in the Hamilton Westminster constituency in 2024
    Just a 30% decrease in vote share nothing to see here
    That's almost LD bar chart levels of wilful innumeracy and it's not even 10 am. Deliberately conflating two different meanings of "%" and on PB too. HYUFD should be had up for public indecency, the exposure is blatant. Who does he think we are?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,936
    IanB2 said:

    Boris Johnson cannot win back traditional Tory voters who turned to Reform UK, a new poll has found. Just 15 per cent of Reform supporters believe that the former Prime Minister would be a better pick for Downing Street than Nigel Farage, according to a YouGov survey.

    15% of Reform voters switcing to the Tories would likely see the Tories at least overtake Labour and soon be level pegging with Reform
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,551
    Selebian said:

    AugustusCarp2 said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    Very good article, and a very useful word.
    Have people on here really not heard 'edgelord' before? I'm pretty sure it was in circulation when I was at university a couple of decades ago. I'm sure I've seen people use the term on here, too (we have plenty of our own!).
    I've never heard it before. Maybe it's more of a thing among the extremely online/ gamers etc. It's a useful concept - as you note, PB is very well served by the edgelord community. I can't wait to accuse my son of being one, too. He loves the rage bait - a related concept with which I am well acquainted.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,285
    edited June 5
    algarkirk said:

    Fishing said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    First?

    Rants against the modern world. My MIL died in January. SSE are now threatening to cut her off.
    They have sent a letter saying "please get in touch if you need help"
    No phone number.
    Go on their website and they say that the customer number on their letter is too short.
    Chat has an option of speak to an advisor. When you click on it you can go back or close. No other options.
    Advising re bereavement is an option but nothing happens.

    We are changing our account.

    This is an egregious instance of a characteristic and strange phenomenon.

    We were all used in the olden days of the contemptuous indifference of monopolies like gas board, telephones etc; one of the reasons for the support there was for Thatcher's revolution, now 40 years old.

    One of its central points was that good service drives out bad, and in so many fields this works. Food retailers are keen to be open, accessible, and not poison you.

    Accessing big outfits can be so difficult - no email address, phones not answered, websites don't work or respond etc - while at the same time they swamp you with peremptoryy demands.

    I wonder why the invisible hand is not working better.
    Consumers want good service, but they also want cheap energy or whatever. People rarely need to access customer helplines, but they pay for energy all the time, and when they are choosing suppliers are far more likely to make a decision on the basis of price, rather than customer experience, especially if they've had no experience of the provider's dire call centres.

    Of course all providers in the energy supply market face the same incentives, unless one differentiates itself by going for the higher quality service market at higher prices. But I'm not sure that's a viable strategy.
    A further puzzle then. No-one contacts a utility etc unless they have to. Is it not more cost effective for the companies to provide rapid, skilled effective service for those who do rather than have every transaction lengthened by uselessness? Ditto banks. We don't spend all day making nuisance calls to gas providers and banks for fun.
    I have a suspicion that in fact most customer service calls are the trivial kind that could have been dealt with by the customer on the website and where a level 1 call centre employee following a script *is* the rapid effective service. If customer service call centres were only getting calls for the oddball corner cases they wouldn't need to be as big as they are.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,936
    Amongst voters as a whole Johnson is seen as the best bet for the Tories, though amongst current Tory voters Cameron is most respected.


    'When asked who they thought would do a good job as leader of the Conservatives in the future, Mr Johnson polled best but with a score of just 28%. This was better than Reform’s Mr Farage (25%), former foreign secretary James Cleverly (20%), Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick (18%), Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel (14%) and former home secretary Suella Braverman (12%).

    Among current Conservative supporters, there is high regard for former PM Mr Cameron. More than three in four (76%) think he did a good job – a higher rating than that enjoyed by Rishi Sunak (71%), Mr Johnson (69%), Mrs May (56%) and Ms Truss (8%).'
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2064463/boris-johnson-reform-uk-poll
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,637
    occasionalranter said:

    DavidL said:

    First?

    Rants against the modern world. My MIL died in January. SSE are now threatening to cut her off.
    They have sent a letter saying "please get in touch if you need help"
    No phone number.
    Go on their website and they say that the customer number on their letter is too short.
    Chat has an option of speak to an advisor. When you click on it you can go back or close. No other options.
    Advising re bereavement is an option but nothing happens.

    We are changing our account.

    Sympathies. I think everyone who's dealt with an estate has at least one similar experience. My favourite was when HMRC wrote to my Dad accusing him of fraudulently claiming child benefit. A few salient facts - he was dead, his only children were in their 40s and he'd never claimed child benefit anyway.
    HMRC demanded £5 unpaid tax off my father, sending standard threatening letters, unlimited penalties. etc. even after it was demonstrably paid by bank transfer and photocopies of the stamped receipts etc. sent. He was so distressed by it I ended up paying the bloody thing a further two times till it finally took.

    That was in the period when they didn't issue a numbered paying in slip any more - trying to force people to go online, which of course was (a) completely useless with folk like my elderly father and (b) meant that trillions of bank payments now had no positive HMRC issued transaction identifying number so must have got lost.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,058
    HYUFD said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    wooliedyed said:

    FPT
    Morning all.
    Britain Elects model has forecast the by election as follows (and they caveat by saying much less polling data than theyd have liked). They rate Reform beating Labour as possible but unlikely. Same for SNP not winning.

    SNP 34
    Lab 28
    Ref 23
    Con 7
    Green 3
    LD 3
    Others 2

    I suspect Labour would be pleased with that, a 3.5% swing from SNP to Labour since the 2021 Holyrood election for the seat. The SNP will be relieved to hold on and Reform would be happy to have got nearly a quarter of the vote in a Scottish seat
    But how would YOUR party feel?
    Hamilton has never been a Tory seat, so while 7% would be disappointing it would only be 3% down on the 10% the Tories got in the Hamilton Westminster constituency in 2024
    The drop in opinion poll rating for the SCons since last Holyrood would suggest a par score in Holyrood Hamilton of maybe 11.5% compared to Meghan Gallacher in 2021. They are of course also getting squeezed here. 7% and fourth clearly is probably the low end of 'ok' results. Any less or falling behind Greens or LD and it starts to become grim would be my opinion on it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,936
    Yougov finds Rayner only ties Farage on a best PM poll at 28% each while Starmer leads Farage 44% to 29%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1930211910881820719
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,099
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories just need to pick someone who can win in London, whoever it is.

    Would Liz Truss be a curve-ball option? She could run on a drain-the-swamp ticket bolstered by the dignity of previous high office. Crucially it would stress test the notion that her plans and her premiership were sabotaged by a shadowy Lefty elite but would bloom in the sunshine of democracy. Might be worth a go.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,093
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    What's their objection to Adrian Chiles? I agree, a regular commentator who writes well and, unusually, almost always has something interesting to say.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,014
    HYUFD said:

    Amongst voters as a whole Johnson is seen as the best bet for the Tories, though amongst current Tory voters Cameron is most respected.


    'When asked who they thought would do a good job as leader of the Conservatives in the future, Mr Johnson polled best but with a score of just 28%. This was better than Reform’s Mr Farage (25%), former foreign secretary James Cleverly (20%), Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick (18%), Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel (14%) and former home secretary Suella Braverman (12%).

    Among current Conservative supporters, there is high regard for former PM Mr Cameron. More than three in four (76%) think he did a good job – a higher rating than that enjoyed by Rishi Sunak (71%), Mr Johnson (69%), Mrs May (56%) and Ms Truss (8%).'
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2064463/boris-johnson-reform-uk-poll

    Cameron - a good job? He fucked up the Referendum timing, then with his disastrous "renegotiation" followed by his toddler tantrum when people doubted its value. Then pissed off the moment his Referendum went against him - despite saying he would not.

    The bar for doing a good job must have sunk towards the ground through May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak and Starmer if people think that was a "good job".
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov finds Rayner only ties Farage on a best PM poll at 28% each while Starmer leads Farage 44% to 29%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1930211910881820719

    These results do not pass the sniff test. How have they got Starmer so far ahead?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,936
    'Among the Tory MPs who would be eligible to run should there be a fresh leadership contest, James Cleverly was the most popular across all survey respondents.

    But it was Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, who was the most popular candidate for Tory leadership among Reform voters, with 35 per cent thinking he would do a good job.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/04/boris-cant-win-back-voters-who-turned-to-farage-poll-finds/
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,883
    The tension in palpable north of the border. The BBC have live coverage of the count from midnight.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,014
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    wooliedyed said:

    FPT
    Morning all.
    Britain Elects model has forecast the by election as follows (and they caveat by saying much less polling data than theyd have liked). They rate Reform beating Labour as possible but unlikely. Same for SNP not winning.

    SNP 34
    Lab 28
    Ref 23
    Con 7
    Green 3
    LD 3
    Others 2

    I suspect Labour would be pleased with that, a 3.5% swing from SNP to Labour since the 2021 Holyrood election for the seat. The SNP will be relieved to hold on and Reform would be happy to have got nearly a quarter of the vote in a Scottish seat
    But how would YOUR party feel?
    Hamilton has never been a Tory seat, so while 7% would be disappointing it would only be 3% down on the 10% the Tories got in the Hamilton Westminster constituency in 2024
    Just a 30% decrease in vote share nothing to see here
    Nothing compared to some of Labour's recent by-election vote loss...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,058
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Boris Johnson cannot win back traditional Tory voters who turned to Reform UK, a new poll has found. Just 15 per cent of Reform supporters believe that the former Prime Minister would be a better pick for Downing Street than Nigel Farage, according to a YouGov survey.

    15% of Reform voters switcing to the Tories would likely see the Tories at least overtake Labour and soon be level pegging with Reform
    Natural outliers ought to see at least some Tory>Labour polling over the summer unless the fundamentals shift
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,936
    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    Amongst voters as a whole Johnson is seen as the best bet for the Tories, though amongst current Tory voters Cameron is most respected.


    'When asked who they thought would do a good job as leader of the Conservatives in the future, Mr Johnson polled best but with a score of just 28%. This was better than Reform’s Mr Farage (25%), former foreign secretary James Cleverly (20%), Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick (18%), Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel (14%) and former home secretary Suella Braverman (12%).

    Among current Conservative supporters, there is high regard for former PM Mr Cameron. More than three in four (76%) think he did a good job – a higher rating than that enjoyed by Rishi Sunak (71%), Mr Johnson (69%), Mrs May (56%) and Ms Truss (8%).'
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2064463/boris-johnson-reform-uk-poll

    Cameron - a good job? He fucked up the Referendum timing, then with his disastrous "renegotiation" followed by his toddler tantrum when people doubted its value. Then pissed off the moment his Referendum went against him - despite saying he would not.

    The bar for doing a good job must have sunk towards the ground through May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak and Starmer if people think that was a "good job".
    If you are still voting Tory even now and haven't gone Reform then you are likely to be a Cameroon
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,058
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories just need to pick someone who can win in London, whoever it is.

    Would Liz Truss be a curve-ball option? She could run on a drain-the-swamp ticket bolstered by the dignity of previous high office. Crucially it would stress test the notion that her plans and her premiership were sabotaged by a shadowy Lefty elite but would bloom in the sunshine of democracy. Might be worth a go.
    Lol, nice
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,637
    Eabhal said:

    The tension in palpable north of the border. The BBC have live coverage of the count from midnight.

    At least the weather is a bit less windy and showery than it's been. Temperatures into the mid teens and a bit of sun even forecast at lowsing time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,936
    edited June 5
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    wooliedyed said:

    FPT
    Morning all.
    Britain Elects model has forecast the by election as follows (and they caveat by saying much less polling data than theyd have liked). They rate Reform beating Labour as possible but unlikely. Same for SNP not winning.

    SNP 34
    Lab 28
    Ref 23
    Con 7
    Green 3
    LD 3
    Others 2

    I suspect Labour would be pleased with that, a 3.5% swing from SNP to Labour since the 2021 Holyrood election for the seat. The SNP will be relieved to hold on and Reform would be happy to have got nearly a quarter of the vote in a Scottish seat
    But how would YOUR party feel?
    Hamilton has never been a Tory seat, so while 7% would be disappointing it would only be 3% down on the 10% the Tories got in the Hamilton Westminster constituency in 2024
    Just a 30% decrease in vote share nothing to see here
    On the Britain Elects forecast the SNP voteshare would be down a third on 2021 in Hamilton and the SNP currently hold the Hamilton Holyrood seat, it has never been Tory
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,641
    HYUFD said:

    'Among the Tory MPs who would be eligible to run should there be a fresh leadership contest, James Cleverly was the most popular across all survey respondents.

    But it was Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, who was the most popular candidate for Tory leadership among Reform voters, with 35 per cent thinking he would do a good job.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/04/boris-cant-win-back-voters-who-turned-to-farage-poll-finds/

    People have all sorts of preferences for who they would like leading other parties - indeed I have my own - without any intention of actually voting for them.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,641
    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    Amongst voters as a whole Johnson is seen as the best bet for the Tories, though amongst current Tory voters Cameron is most respected.


    'When asked who they thought would do a good job as leader of the Conservatives in the future, Mr Johnson polled best but with a score of just 28%. This was better than Reform’s Mr Farage (25%), former foreign secretary James Cleverly (20%), Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick (18%), Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel (14%) and former home secretary Suella Braverman (12%).

    Among current Conservative supporters, there is high regard for former PM Mr Cameron. More than three in four (76%) think he did a good job – a higher rating than that enjoyed by Rishi Sunak (71%), Mr Johnson (69%), Mrs May (56%) and Ms Truss (8%).'
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2064463/boris-johnson-reform-uk-poll

    Cameron - a good job? He fucked up the Referendum timing, then with his disastrous "renegotiation" followed by his toddler tantrum when people doubted its value. Then pissed off the moment his Referendum went against him - despite saying he would not.

    The bar for doing a good job must have sunk towards the ground through May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak and Starmer if people think that was a "good job".
    Clearly it has.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,014
    Leon said:

    The relentless decline of Bluesky continues

    https://x.com/paulg/status/1930194301129994394?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    How sad

    It will be interesting to see if Musk going blue-on-blue with Trump helps his brand/products arrest their dismal decline.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,936
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Among the Tory MPs who would be eligible to run should there be a fresh leadership contest, James Cleverly was the most popular across all survey respondents.

    But it was Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, who was the most popular candidate for Tory leadership among Reform voters, with 35 per cent thinking he would do a good job.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/04/boris-cant-win-back-voters-who-turned-to-farage-poll-finds/

    People have all sorts of preferences for who they would like leading other parties - indeed I have my own - without any intention of actually voting for them.
    Yes obviously your opinion is irrelevant on Tory leadership hopefuls but opinion of 2019 Conservative voters now voting Reform and 2024 Conservative voters is relevant
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,900
    pm215 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Fishing said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    First?

    Rants against the modern world. My MIL died in January. SSE are now threatening to cut her off.
    They have sent a letter saying "please get in touch if you need help"
    No phone number.
    Go on their website and they say that the customer number on their letter is too short.
    Chat has an option of speak to an advisor. When you click on it you can go back or close. No other options.
    Advising re bereavement is an option but nothing happens.

    We are changing our account.

    This is an egregious instance of a characteristic and strange phenomenon.

    We were all used in the olden days of the contemptuous indifference of monopolies like gas board, telephones etc; one of the reasons for the support there was for Thatcher's revolution, now 40 years old.

    One of its central points was that good service drives out bad, and in so many fields this works. Food retailers are keen to be open, accessible, and not poison you.

    Accessing big outfits can be so difficult - no email address, phones not answered, websites don't work or respond etc - while at the same time they swamp you with peremptoryy demands.

    I wonder why the invisible hand is not working better.
    Consumers want good service, but they also want cheap energy or whatever. People rarely need to access customer helplines, but they pay for energy all the time, and when they are choosing suppliers are far more likely to make a decision on the basis of price, rather than customer experience, especially if they've had no experience of the provider's dire call centres.

    Of course all providers in the energy supply market face the same incentives, unless one differentiates itself by going for the higher quality service market at higher prices. But I'm not sure that's a viable strategy.
    A further puzzle then. No-one contacts a utility etc unless they have to. Is it not more cost effective for the companies to provide rapid, skilled effective service for those who do rather than have every transaction lengthened by uselessness? Ditto banks. We don't spend all day making nuisance calls to gas providers and banks for fun.
    I have a suspicion that in fact most customer service calls are the trivial kind that could have been dealt with by the customer on the website and where a level 1 call centre employee following a script *is* the rapid effective service. If customer service call centres were only getting calls for the oddball corner cases they wouldn't need to be as big as they are.
    A friend works for a customer facing company. They found that a chatbot, offering “is this {link} what you want?” answered 85% of queries then and there.

    They then started using the queries to the chatbot to specify new capabilities in the online system - and raised the number further.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,014
    HYUFD said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    Amongst voters as a whole Johnson is seen as the best bet for the Tories, though amongst current Tory voters Cameron is most respected.


    'When asked who they thought would do a good job as leader of the Conservatives in the future, Mr Johnson polled best but with a score of just 28%. This was better than Reform’s Mr Farage (25%), former foreign secretary James Cleverly (20%), Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick (18%), Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel (14%) and former home secretary Suella Braverman (12%).

    Among current Conservative supporters, there is high regard for former PM Mr Cameron. More than three in four (76%) think he did a good job – a higher rating than that enjoyed by Rishi Sunak (71%), Mr Johnson (69%), Mrs May (56%) and Ms Truss (8%).'
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2064463/boris-johnson-reform-uk-poll

    Cameron - a good job? He fucked up the Referendum timing, then with his disastrous "renegotiation" followed by his toddler tantrum when people doubted its value. Then pissed off the moment his Referendum went against him - despite saying he would not.

    The bar for doing a good job must have sunk towards the ground through May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak and Starmer if people think that was a "good job".
    If you are still voting Tory even now and haven't gone Reform then you are likely to be a Cameroon
    My personal preferences always seem to fall foul of your sweeping generalisations.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,936
    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    Amongst voters as a whole Johnson is seen as the best bet for the Tories, though amongst current Tory voters Cameron is most respected.


    'When asked who they thought would do a good job as leader of the Conservatives in the future, Mr Johnson polled best but with a score of just 28%. This was better than Reform’s Mr Farage (25%), former foreign secretary James Cleverly (20%), Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick (18%), Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel (14%) and former home secretary Suella Braverman (12%).

    Among current Conservative supporters, there is high regard for former PM Mr Cameron. More than three in four (76%) think he did a good job – a higher rating than that enjoyed by Rishi Sunak (71%), Mr Johnson (69%), Mrs May (56%) and Ms Truss (8%).'
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2064463/boris-johnson-reform-uk-poll

    Cameron - a good job? He fucked up the Referendum timing, then with his disastrous "renegotiation" followed by his toddler tantrum when people doubted its value. Then pissed off the moment his Referendum went against him - despite saying he would not.

    The bar for doing a good job must have sunk towards the ground through May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak and Starmer if people think that was a "good job".
    If you are still voting Tory even now and haven't gone Reform then you are likely to be a Cameroon
    My personal preferences always seem to fall foul of your sweeping generalisations.
    Or a Sunakite though there is a lot of overlap between them and Cameroons
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,922
    IanB2 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    wooliedyed said:

    FPT
    Morning all.
    Britain Elects model has forecast the by election as follows (and they caveat by saying much less polling data than theyd have liked). They rate Reform beating Labour as possible but unlikely. Same for SNP not winning.

    SNP 34
    Lab 28
    Ref 23
    Con 7
    Green 3
    LD 3
    Others 2

    I suspect Labour would be pleased with that, a 3.5% swing from SNP to Labour since the 2021 Holyrood election for the seat. The SNP will be relieved to hold on and Reform would be happy to have got nearly a quarter of the vote in a Scottish seat
    But how would YOUR party feel?
    Nowadays HY seems to have adopted Reform as his second friend, not seeing that it's his own party's mortal enemy.
    Thought his alternative was Plaid Cymru, although I suppose now he's no longer in Cymru .......
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,014
    FF43 said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    What's their objection to Adrian Chiles? I agree, a regular commentator who writes well and, unusually, almost always has something interesting to say.
    His added value as an ITV football commentator was near-zero.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,043
    Malmesbury said:

    Selebian said:

    AugustusCarp2 said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    Very good article, and a very useful word.
    Have people on here really not heard 'edgelord' before? I'm pretty sure it was in circulation when I was at university a couple of decades ago. I'm sure I've seen people use the term on here, too (we have plenty of our own!).
    Edgelord was a thing when USENET ruled and HTML was just a dream.
    Indeed it was.

    All those posters that pretended to like Emacs were definitely Edgelords.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,667
    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Tice announced yesterday employees in the ten Reform councils will no longer be allowed to join the Local Govt defined benefit pension scheme and those already in it will get lower pay rises to compensate (penalise).

    Can't see that surviving tribunals

    Membership of the LGPS has always been voluntary - most join and those looking for a career in local Government join and do well from it (and I can't help but feel instead of throwing rocks at schemes like the LGPS, people should be asking why schemes like that don't exist in the private sector).

    Those who don't join get more money (as they don't pay in their contributions or indeed the employer's contributions which would save the authority money as well) so it's not a question of being penalised.

    Kent would continue to have obligations to the LGPS (as indeed do all councils) for decades to come.

    I think you would be looking at changing contracts from a legal point of view (which the authority could do at a cost).

    I'm also not sure of the legality of a mandatory "opt out" - a mandatory "opt in" would be eqaully wrong but offering staff an informed choice would be best.
    Back when I was a London councillor, there were some years when a third of the revenue brought in by the capped inflation-increase we were allowed in Council Tax had to be dedicated to the rising costs of the LGPS for current, retired and deferred members - back when low interest rates were magnifying (arguably over-estimating) the cost of scheme liabilities. I'd expect schemes are in much better shape now that interest rates are back at more 'normal' levels - but if the Trump Slump pushes rates back down, maintaining the funding level of local LGPS schemes could once again be a significant burden on local authorities.
    Yes, the LPGS was under severe pressure as a result of the Global Financial Crisis and that's why the rules were changed to increase employer and employee contributions (particularly for senior officers) and the benefits (especially the post-redundancy lump sum) were reduced.

    There was one set of changes in 2008 and another in 2014 and it's nowhere near as "gold plated" as some would have you believe.

    The loss of one million local Government roles from 2012 also had an impact but there are a lot of retired former local Government workers out there (I'm one) and the different pension schemes (such as the ones for Teachers, the ones for Firefighters) all work differently so going on about "public sector pensions" betrays an ignorance of the subject.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,736
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    Yes, and his writing is at worst inoffensive. My beef is that i) it's a bit vacuous and ii) he only got the job because he's the partner of the editor.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,341
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Selebian said:

    AugustusCarp2 said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    Very good article, and a very useful word.
    Have people on here really not heard 'edgelord' before? I'm pretty sure it was in circulation when I was at university a couple of decades ago. I'm sure I've seen people use the term on here, too (we have plenty of our own!).
    I've never heard it before. Maybe it's more of a thing among the extremely online/ gamers etc. It's a useful concept - as you note, PB is very well served by the edgelord community. I can't wait to accuse my son of being one, too. He loves the rage bait - a related concept with which I am well acquainted.
    I don't think I fit into either of those categories. May first have heard it from computer science undergrads I shared with in halls, so could make sense from that, I guess.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,341
    edited June 5
    Flatlander said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Selebian said:

    AugustusCarp2 said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    Very good article, and a very useful word.
    Have people on here really not heard 'edgelord' before? I'm pretty sure it was in circulation when I was at university a couple of decades ago. I'm sure I've seen people use the term on here, too (we have plenty of our own!).
    Edgelord was a thing when USENET ruled and HTML was just a dream.
    Indeed it was.

    All those posters that pretended to like Emacs were definitely Edgelords.
    This was a long time ago, some time/several letters before the iMacs, right? :wink:
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,341
    Selebian said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Selebian said:

    AugustusCarp2 said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    Very good article, and a very useful word.
    Have people on here really not heard 'edgelord' before? I'm pretty sure it was in circulation when I was at university a couple of decades ago. I'm sure I've seen people use the term on here, too (we have plenty of our own!).
    I've never heard it before. Maybe it's more of a thing among the extremely online/ gamers etc. It's a useful concept - as you note, PB is very well served by the edgelord community. I can't wait to accuse my son of being one, too. He loves the rage bait - a related concept with which I am well acquainted.
    I don't think I fit into either of those categories. May first have heard it from computer science undergrads I shared with in halls, so could make sense from that, I guess.
    Selebian said:

    Flatlander said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Selebian said:

    AugustusCarp2 said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    Very good article, and a very useful word.
    Have people on here really not heard 'edgelord' before? I'm pretty sure it was in circulation when I was at university a couple of decades ago. I'm sure I've seen people use the term on here, too (we have plenty of our own!).
    Edgelord was a thing when USENET ruled and HTML was just a dream.
    Indeed it was.

    All those posters that pretended to like Emacs were definitely Edgelords.
    This was a long time ago, some time/several letters before the iMac, right? :wink:
    Hmm, I claim not to be "among the extremely online/ gamers etc", but I get the emacs in-joke. Maybe some time for some self-evaluation!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,603
    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    Amongst voters as a whole Johnson is seen as the best bet for the Tories, though amongst current Tory voters Cameron is most respected.


    'When asked who they thought would do a good job as leader of the Conservatives in the future, Mr Johnson polled best but with a score of just 28%. This was better than Reform’s Mr Farage (25%), former foreign secretary James Cleverly (20%), Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick (18%), Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel (14%) and former home secretary Suella Braverman (12%).

    Among current Conservative supporters, there is high regard for former PM Mr Cameron. More than three in four (76%) think he did a good job – a higher rating than that enjoyed by Rishi Sunak (71%), Mr Johnson (69%), Mrs May (56%) and Ms Truss (8%).'
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2064463/boris-johnson-reform-uk-poll

    Cameron - a good job? He fucked up the Referendum timing, then with his disastrous "renegotiation" followed by his toddler tantrum when people doubted its value. Then pissed off the moment his Referendum went against him - despite saying he would not.

    The bar for doing a good job must have sunk towards the ground through May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak and Starmer if people think that was a "good job".
    If you are still voting Tory even now and haven't gone Reform then you are likely to be a Cameroon
    My personal preferences always seem to fall foul of your sweeping generalisations.
    @HYUFD does not speak for this conservative, not least because he is a quasi Reform supporter who is inconsolable that Johnson political career is over [thank goodness]


  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,341
    MarqueeMark said:

    Leon said:

    The relentless decline of Bluesky continues

    https://x.com/paulg/status/1930194301129994394?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    How sad

    It will be interesting to see if Musk going blue-on-blue with Trump helps his brand/products arrest their dismal decline.
    I'm not sure it will, to the extent that any decline is Musk-caused. The libs will still dislike him as he's clearly not 'one of us'; he now risks alienating the Trump-positive demographic, particularly in the US.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,482
    MarqueeMark said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    wooliedyed said:

    FPT
    Morning all.
    Britain Elects model has forecast the by election as follows (and they caveat by saying much less polling data than theyd have liked). They rate Reform beating Labour as possible but unlikely. Same for SNP not winning.

    SNP 34
    Lab 28
    Ref 23
    Con 7
    Green 3
    LD 3
    Others 2

    I suspect Labour would be pleased with that, a 3.5% swing from SNP to Labour since the 2021 Holyrood election for the seat. The SNP will be relieved to hold on and Reform would be happy to have got nearly a quarter of the vote in a Scottish seat
    But how would YOUR party feel?
    Hamilton has never been a Tory seat, so while 7% would be disappointing it would only be 3% down on the 10% the Tories got in the Hamilton Westminster constituency in 2024
    Just a 30% decrease in vote share nothing to see here
    Nothing compared to some of Labour's recent by-election vote loss...
    I know right
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,414
    IanB2 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    wooliedyed said:

    FPT
    Morning all.
    Britain Elects model has forecast the by election as follows (and they caveat by saying much less polling data than theyd have liked). They rate Reform beating Labour as possible but unlikely. Same for SNP not winning.

    SNP 34
    Lab 28
    Ref 23
    Con 7
    Green 3
    LD 3
    Others 2

    I suspect Labour would be pleased with that, a 3.5% swing from SNP to Labour since the 2021 Holyrood election for the seat. The SNP will be relieved to hold on and Reform would be happy to have got nearly a quarter of the vote in a Scottish seat
    But how would YOUR party feel?
    Nowadays HY seems to have adopted Reform as his second friend, not seeing that it's his own party's mortal enemy.
    Freudian slip?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,093
    MarqueeMark said:

    FF43 said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    What's their objection to Adrian Chiles? I agree, a regular commentator who writes well and, unusually, almost always has something interesting to say.
    His added value as an ITV football commentator was near-zero.
    He sort of admits it in a recent article on Gary Lineker.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/may/21/gary-lineker-was-once-my-rival-i-feel-no-shame-in-saying-i-was-beaten-by-the-best
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,557
    https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1930519946741600433

    I know what it’s like to be part of a family trying to make ends meet.

    My Plan for Change will make life easier for hard working people across our country.

    We are providing free school meals to more than half a million more children, and putting £500 back in parents' pockets.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,066
    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    Amongst voters as a whole Johnson is seen as the best bet for the Tories, though amongst current Tory voters Cameron is most respected.


    'When asked who they thought would do a good job as leader of the Conservatives in the future, Mr Johnson polled best but with a score of just 28%. This was better than Reform’s Mr Farage (25%), former foreign secretary James Cleverly (20%), Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick (18%), Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel (14%) and former home secretary Suella Braverman (12%).

    Among current Conservative supporters, there is high regard for former PM Mr Cameron. More than three in four (76%) think he did a good job – a higher rating than that enjoyed by Rishi Sunak (71%), Mr Johnson (69%), Mrs May (56%) and Ms Truss (8%).'
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2064463/boris-johnson-reform-uk-poll

    Cameron - a good job? He fucked up the Referendum timing, then with his disastrous "renegotiation" followed by his toddler tantrum when people doubted its value. Then pissed off the moment his Referendum went against him - despite saying he would not.

    The bar for doing a good job must have sunk towards the ground through May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak and Starmer if people think that was a "good job".
    I think Cameron did a goodish job 2010-2015 and was 'unlucky' that the Tory campaign decimated the Lib Dems. Had there had to be a second coalition there would have be no referendum in 2016 and we might all be a bit happier. (Or not - the EU would still be a festering sore on British politics - add in the vaccine scandal that would have arisen in 2020).

    As for leaving after the Brexit vote - he had to. He had tied himself to the mast of remain and lost. His authority was gone. If he had been neutral and said that he would do as 'instructed, whether leave or remain' then he could have carried on. But he didn't.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,482
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1930519946741600433

    I know what it’s like to be part of a family trying to make ends meet.

    My Plan for Change will make life easier for hard working people across our country.

    We are providing free school meals to more than half a million more children, and putting £500 back in parents' pockets.

    Feeding children? Must be first on the Reform chopping block I imagine
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,603
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1930519946741600433

    I know what it’s like to be part of a family trying to make ends meet.

    My Plan for Change will make life easier for hard working people across our country.

    We are providing free school meals to more than half a million more children, and putting £500 back in parents' pockets.

    But not before 2026
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