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London 2028 and beyond – politicalbetting.com

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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,412
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Amongst voters as a whole Johnson is seen as the best bet for the Tories, though amongst current Tory voters Cameron is most respected.


    'When asked who they thought would do a good job as leader of the Conservatives in the future, Mr Johnson polled best but with a score of just 28%. This was better than Reform’s Mr Farage (25%), former foreign secretary James Cleverly (20%), Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick (18%), Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel (14%) and former home secretary Suella Braverman (12%).

    Among current Conservative supporters, there is high regard for former PM Mr Cameron. More than three in four (76%) think he did a good job – a higher rating than that enjoyed by Rishi Sunak (71%), Mr Johnson (69%), Mrs May (56%) and Ms Truss (8%).'
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2064463/boris-johnson-reform-uk-poll

    Cameron - a good job? He fucked up the Referendum timing, then with his disastrous "renegotiation" followed by his toddler tantrum when people doubted its value. Then pissed off the moment his Referendum went against him - despite saying he would not.

    The bar for doing a good job must have sunk towards the ground through May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak and Starmer if people think that was a "good job".
    If you are still voting Tory even now and haven't gone Reform then you are likely to be a Cameroon
    :innocent:


  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,631
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    The London local elections next year will be informative as to the state of opinion in the capital and may not be positive for either Labour or the Conservatives but that's for a different thread.

    The Find Out Now London polling from a month ago had, for a Mayoral election with unnamed candidates, Labour on 33%, Reform and the Conservatives tied on 20%, the Greens on 13% and the LDs on 10%. In 2024, despite all the post-election Twitter-driven nonsense, Khan easily beat Hall by eleven points.

    That said, I'd put Hall's result up there with Jeremy Hunt holding his seat at the GE as the best Conservative electoral performances of 2024. She got 33%, a weeks later the Party got 21% while, for all the talk about how disliked he was, Labour at the GE polled about the same as Khan.

    What will Khan do? I've long stated in 2020, when he decided to run for another term, he made an enormous personal miscalculation. He believed at that point Labour were doomed to be in opposition for at least another term. There was no point him going into the Commons as an opposition backbench MP at an election in 2023 or 2024 while he could remain London Mayor with all the publicity that engenders.

    As with most of us, Khan did not foresee the implosion of the Conservatives and the rise of Starmer - Khan COULD now be a prominent Labour MP (perhaps even in the Cabinet) but instead he's just the Mayor of London.

    Will he decide to jump to the Commons next time? Time isn't on his side - he'll be 58 by the time of the next election but if he had any thought he would lose a London Mayoral election, I could see him seeking out one of the "safe" London seats (East Ham perhaps?).

    A different Labour candidate would probably win but who? I think a "celebrity" is unlikely - I sometimes wonder if Newham's Mayor, Roksana Fiaz, has ambitions beyond her Borough but we'll see. It's not a market anyone should play until we know much more about Khan's intentions.

    The Reform and Conservative choices will also be interesting - Reform will do well in some parts of London next year but not in others but probably not in enough parts to win the Mayoralty. The Conservatives are shattered and if they lose further ground next year, who would want the candidacy? Cleverly might see himself as a Party leader but a leader of what? The Greens, LDs and Corbyn will nibble round the edges but in the end Labour's support is deep enough and broad enough to win a fragmented race - against a single non-Labour candidate it would be different.

    I think most who are Mayors prefer it to a cabinet position. You are a public figure, and you get to make your community better.

    Listen to Andy Burnham's introduction before Rachel Reeves spoke at the launch of her Mayoral settlements in the bus factory this week. He's glowing like a Ready Brek Central Heating for Kids advert.

    All the money for the East Midlands (Notts/Derbys) is going to the extreme South - the two cities. Boo !)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufLONX4i42M
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,744

    DavidL said:

    First?

    Rants against the modern world. My MIL died in January. SSE are now threatening to cut her off.
    They have sent a letter saying "please get in touch if you need help"
    No phone number.
    Go on their website and they say that the customer number on their letter is too short.
    Chat has an option of speak to an advisor. When you click on it you can go back or close. No other options.
    Advising re bereavement is an option but nothing happens.

    We are changing our account.

    Sympathies. I think everyone who's dealt with an estate has at least one similar experience. My favourite was when HMRC wrote to my Dad accusing him of fraudulently claiming child benefit. A few salient facts - he was dead, his only children were in their 40s and he'd never claimed child benefit anyway.
    I dealt with my late Fathers estate. He died with a small amount of savings and little else.

    The only problem I had was with his former pension at Land Rover moved over to BMW. They were so unhelpful and awkward. Took several calls and they still didnt get it right. They even confused my sister as my dad’s wife.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,387

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT
    Morning all.
    Britain Elects model has forecast the by election as follows (and they caveat by saying much less polling data than theyd have liked). They rate Reform beating Labour as possible but unlikely. Same for SNP not winning.

    SNP 34
    Lab 28
    Ref 23
    Con 7
    Green 3
    LD 3
    Others 2

    My prediction that I posted on the VoteUK forum competition page is this.

    SNP 38.4%
    RefUK 29.6%
    Lab 19.7%
    Con 4.5%
    Green 3.8%
    LD 2.1%
    Others 1.9%
    I think I'd agree almost entirely with that give or take. I'd have Reform a tad lower perhaps but yeah
    Thanks for the vote of confidence. 😊
  • My gut feeling is that this will be a very popular policy but will do very little on its own to change Labour’s polling position.

    Only delivery will do that.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,744

    My gut feeling is that this will be a very popular policy but will do very little on its own to change Labour’s polling position.

    Only delivery will do that.

    What policy ?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,035

    https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1930519946741600433

    I know what it’s like to be part of a family trying to make ends meet.

    My Plan for Change will make life easier for hard working people across our country.

    We are providing free school meals to more than half a million more children, and putting £500 back in parents' pockets.

    As convincing as they come is chimney sweep Keir
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,482
    edited June 5

    https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1930519946741600433

    I know what it’s like to be part of a family trying to make ends meet.

    My Plan for Change will make life easier for hard working people across our country.

    We are providing free school meals to more than half a million more children, and putting £500 back in parents' pockets.

    As convincing as they come is chimney sweep Keir
    The British hate success. We must all know our place.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,601
    edited June 5
    MattW said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    The London local elections next year will be informative as to the state of opinion in the capital and may not be positive for either Labour or the Conservatives but that's for a different thread.

    The Find Out Now London polling from a month ago had, for a Mayoral election with unnamed candidates, Labour on 33%, Reform and the Conservatives tied on 20%, the Greens on 13% and the LDs on 10%. In 2024, despite all the post-election Twitter-driven nonsense, Khan easily beat Hall by eleven points.

    That said, I'd put Hall's result up there with Jeremy Hunt holding his seat at the GE as the best Conservative electoral performances of 2024. She got 33%, a weeks later the Party got 21% while, for all the talk about how disliked he was, Labour at the GE polled about the same as Khan.

    What will Khan do? I've long stated in 2020, when he decided to run for another term, he made an enormous personal miscalculation. He believed at that point Labour were doomed to be in opposition for at least another term. There was no point him going into the Commons as an opposition backbench MP at an election in 2023 or 2024 while he could remain London Mayor with all the publicity that engenders.

    As with most of us, Khan did not foresee the implosion of the Conservatives and the rise of Starmer - Khan COULD now be a prominent Labour MP (perhaps even in the Cabinet) but instead he's just the Mayor of London.

    Will he decide to jump to the Commons next time? Time isn't on his side - he'll be 58 by the time of the next election but if he had any thought he would lose a London Mayoral election, I could see him seeking out one of the "safe" London seats (East Ham perhaps?).

    A different Labour candidate would probably win but who? I think a "celebrity" is unlikely - I sometimes wonder if Newham's Mayor, Roksana Fiaz, has ambitions beyond her Borough but we'll see. It's not a market anyone should play until we know much more about Khan's intentions.

    The Reform and Conservative choices will also be interesting - Reform will do well in some parts of London next year but not in others but probably not in enough parts to win the Mayoralty. The Conservatives are shattered and if they lose further ground next year, who would want the candidacy? Cleverly might see himself as a Party leader but a leader of what? The Greens, LDs and Corbyn will nibble round the edges but in the end Labour's support is deep enough and broad enough to win a fragmented race - against a single non-Labour candidate it would be different.

    I think most who are Mayors prefer it to a cabinet position. You are a public figure, and you get to make your community better.

    Listen to Andy Burnham's introduction before Rachel Reeves spoke at the launch of her Mayoral settlements in the bus factory this week. He's glowing like a Ready Brek Central Heating for Kids advert.

    All the money for the East Midlands (Notts/Derbys) is going to the extreme South - the two cities. Boo !)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufLONX4i42M
    Andy Burnham is a very impressive mayor
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,601

    My gut feeling is that this will be a very popular policy but will do very little on its own to change Labour’s polling position.

    Only delivery will do that.

    You make these strange statements expecting us to understand what you are referring to

    Maybe be more specific
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,035

    https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1930519946741600433

    I know what it’s like to be part of a family trying to make ends meet.

    My Plan for Change will make life easier for hard working people across our country.

    We are providing free school meals to more than half a million more children, and putting £500 back in parents' pockets.

    As convincing as they come is chimney sweep Keir
    The British hate success. We must all know our place.
    Its the insincerity that most people hate
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,387

    https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1930519946741600433

    I know what it’s like to be part of a family trying to make ends meet.

    My Plan for Change will make life easier for hard working people across our country.

    We are providing free school meals to more than half a million more children, and putting £500 back in parents' pockets.

    As convincing as they come is chimney sweep Keir
    The British hate success. We must all know our place.
    I like to think that isn't true. Richard Branson has always been quite popular despite being immensely successful.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,631

    Tice announced yesterday employees in the ten Reform councils will no longer be allowed to join the Local Govt defined benefit pension scheme and those already in it will get lower pay rises to compensate (penalise).
    Can't see that surviving tribunals

    Similar has happened in other places - but I think normally by closing existing schemes to new members, and is it not one joint scheme?

    What are the ins and outs here - to me this feels like a shot from the hip.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,631

    Tice announced yesterday employees in the ten Reform councils will no longer be allowed to join the Local Govt defined benefit pension scheme and those already in it will get lower pay rises to compensate (penalise).
    Can't see that surviving tribunals

    Similar has happened in other places - but I think normally by closing existing schemes to new members, and is it not one joint scheme?

    What are the ins and outs here - to me this feels like a shot from the hip.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,561

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    Very good article, and a very useful word.
    The PB Centrist Dads have just discovered the word "edgelord", along with their living deity, Adrian Chiles
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,631
    Selebian said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    Very good article, and a very useful word.
    Have people on here really not heard 'edgelord' before? I'm pretty sure it was in circulation when I was at university a couple of decades ago. I'm sure I've seen people use the term on here, too (we have plenty of our own!).
    2020: @edmundintokyo

    The edgelord demographic is much less prevalent in the general population than they are on Twitter.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2990951/#Comment_2990951
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,561
    edited June 5

    Leon said:

    The relentless decline of Bluesky continues

    https://x.com/paulg/status/1930194301129994394?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    How sad

    What’s sad is your obsession with Bluesky
    lol. Yes of course. I mention it hourly
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,920

    HYUFD said:

    Amongst voters as a whole Johnson is seen as the best bet for the Tories, though amongst current Tory voters Cameron is most respected.


    'When asked who they thought would do a good job as leader of the Conservatives in the future, Mr Johnson polled best but with a score of just 28%. This was better than Reform’s Mr Farage (25%), former foreign secretary James Cleverly (20%), Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick (18%), Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel (14%) and former home secretary Suella Braverman (12%).

    Among current Conservative supporters, there is high regard for former PM Mr Cameron. More than three in four (76%) think he did a good job – a higher rating than that enjoyed by Rishi Sunak (71%), Mr Johnson (69%), Mrs May (56%) and Ms Truss (8%).'
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2064463/boris-johnson-reform-uk-poll

    Cameron - a good job? He fucked up the Referendum timing, then with his disastrous "renegotiation" followed by his toddler tantrum when people doubted its value. Then pissed off the moment his Referendum went against him - despite saying he would not.

    The bar for doing a good job must have sunk towards the ground through May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak and Starmer if people think that was a "good job".
    I think Cameron did a goodish job 2010-2015 and was 'unlucky' that the Tory campaign decimated the Lib Dems. Had there had to be a second coalition there would have be no referendum in 2016 and we might all be a bit happier. (Or not - the EU would still be a festering sore on British politics - add in the vaccine scandal that would have arisen in 2020).

    As for leaving after the Brexit vote - he had to. He had tied himself to the mast of remain and lost. His authority was gone. If he had been neutral and said that he would do as 'instructed, whether leave or remain' then he could have carried on. But he didn't.
    Unlucky!!! Wasn't that the plan? Cameron's Tories 'won' their majority from their erstwhile partners; they had a net LOSS (admittedly of one) to Labour.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,035
    MattW said:

    Tice announced yesterday employees in the ten Reform councils will no longer be allowed to join the Local Govt defined benefit pension scheme and those already in it will get lower pay rises to compensate (penalise).
    Can't see that surviving tribunals

    Similar has happened in other places - but I think normally by closing existing schemes to new members, and is it not one joint scheme?

    What are the ins and outs here - to me this feels like a shot from the hip.
    Closing entry to the scheme seems probably doable as long as a suitable pension option is available but yo give existing scheme members lower pay rises than their non scheme member colleagues as us suggested cannot possibly meet equality law. Its coercion to leave a pension scheme to protect income in employment.
    Whole thing is just Reform trying to set people against each other whilst they torch local services
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,066

    HYUFD said:

    Amongst voters as a whole Johnson is seen as the best bet for the Tories, though amongst current Tory voters Cameron is most respected.


    'When asked who they thought would do a good job as leader of the Conservatives in the future, Mr Johnson polled best but with a score of just 28%. This was better than Reform’s Mr Farage (25%), former foreign secretary James Cleverly (20%), Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick (18%), Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel (14%) and former home secretary Suella Braverman (12%).

    Among current Conservative supporters, there is high regard for former PM Mr Cameron. More than three in four (76%) think he did a good job – a higher rating than that enjoyed by Rishi Sunak (71%), Mr Johnson (69%), Mrs May (56%) and Ms Truss (8%).'
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2064463/boris-johnson-reform-uk-poll

    Cameron - a good job? He fucked up the Referendum timing, then with his disastrous "renegotiation" followed by his toddler tantrum when people doubted its value. Then pissed off the moment his Referendum went against him - despite saying he would not.

    The bar for doing a good job must have sunk towards the ground through May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak and Starmer if people think that was a "good job".
    I think Cameron did a goodish job 2010-2015 and was 'unlucky' that the Tory campaign decimated the Lib Dems. Had there had to be a second coalition there would have be no referendum in 2016 and we might all be a bit happier. (Or not - the EU would still be a festering sore on British politics - add in the vaccine scandal that would have arisen in 2020).

    As for leaving after the Brexit vote - he had to. He had tied himself to the mast of remain and lost. His authority was gone. If he had been neutral and said that he would do as 'instructed, whether leave or remain' then he could have carried on. But he didn't.
    Unlucky!!! Wasn't that the plan? Cameron's Tories 'won' their majority from their erstwhile partners; they had a net LOSS (admittedly of one) to Labour.
    Yes - it was the plan but I think Cameron didn't expect it to work quite so well. I think a conservative/lib dem coalition works for a lot of the country. The lib dems to temper the worst of the right wing of the Tories and the Tories to counter the more unworkable bits of Lib Dem policy.

    However that was the old Tory party, which is gone now, and may not return.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,920
    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    Very good article, and a very useful word.
    Have people on here really not heard 'edgelord' before? I'm pretty sure it was in circulation when I was at university a couple of decades ago. I'm sure I've seen people use the term on here, too (we have plenty of our own!).
    2020: @edmundintokyo

    The edgelord demographic is much less prevalent in the general population than they are on Twitter.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2990951/#Comment_2990951
    Must admit I'd never come across the word 'edgelord' before today. At least I've no memory of doing so. Might have read and wondered what it meant but got the general gist from the rest of whatever article it was.
  • Taz said:

    My gut feeling is that this will be a very popular policy but will do very little on its own to change Labour’s polling position.

    Only delivery will do that.

    What policy ?
    Free school meals.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,899

    Selebian said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    Very good article, and a very useful word.
    Have people on here really not heard 'edgelord' before? I'm pretty sure it was in circulation when I was at university a couple of decades ago. I'm sure I've seen people use the term on here, too (we have plenty of our own!).
    Edgelord was a thing when USENET ruled and HTML was just a dream.
    Indeed it was.

    All those posters that pretended to like Emacs were definitely Edgelords.
    Yes, by Jove!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,631

    Tice announced yesterday employees in the ten Reform councils will no longer be allowed to join the Local Govt defined benefit pension scheme and those already in it will get lower pay rises to compensate (penalise).
    Can't see that surviving tribunals

    It won't, but it will flush out lawfare that will then add fuel to the fire for their election nationally.
    I'm waiting to see if the Union membership rates in these authorities grow.

    M'learned friends will tie them in knots, then pull their Y-fronts down.

    I had this salami slicing and bullying to sign poorer new contracts when I was with GEC in the 1990s, and attempts to slash pension entitlements. It did not go down at all well.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,920

    HYUFD said:

    Amongst voters as a whole Johnson is seen as the best bet for the Tories, though amongst current Tory voters Cameron is most respected.


    'When asked who they thought would do a good job as leader of the Conservatives in the future, Mr Johnson polled best but with a score of just 28%. This was better than Reform’s Mr Farage (25%), former foreign secretary James Cleverly (20%), Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick (18%), Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel (14%) and former home secretary Suella Braverman (12%).

    Among current Conservative supporters, there is high regard for former PM Mr Cameron. More than three in four (76%) think he did a good job – a higher rating than that enjoyed by Rishi Sunak (71%), Mr Johnson (69%), Mrs May (56%) and Ms Truss (8%).'
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2064463/boris-johnson-reform-uk-poll

    Cameron - a good job? He fucked up the Referendum timing, then with his disastrous "renegotiation" followed by his toddler tantrum when people doubted its value. Then pissed off the moment his Referendum went against him - despite saying he would not.

    The bar for doing a good job must have sunk towards the ground through May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak and Starmer if people think that was a "good job".
    I think Cameron did a goodish job 2010-2015 and was 'unlucky' that the Tory campaign decimated the Lib Dems. Had there had to be a second coalition there would have be no referendum in 2016 and we might all be a bit happier. (Or not - the EU would still be a festering sore on British politics - add in the vaccine scandal that would have arisen in 2020).

    As for leaving after the Brexit vote - he had to. He had tied himself to the mast of remain and lost. His authority was gone. If he had been neutral and said that he would do as 'instructed, whether leave or remain' then he could have carried on. But he didn't.
    Unlucky!!! Wasn't that the plan? Cameron's Tories 'won' their majority from their erstwhile partners; they had a net LOSS (admittedly of one) to Labour.
    Yes - it was the plan but I think Cameron didn't expect it to work quite so well. I think a conservative/lib dem coalition works for a lot of the country. The lib dems to temper the worst of the right wing of the Tories and the Tories to counter the more unworkable bits of Lib Dem policy.

    However that was the old Tory party, which is gone now, and may not return.
    Shades of the Liberal Unionists.
    Think you're right about the old Tory party, though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,561
    The fact the PB Centrist dads all admire the writing of..... Adrian Chiles.... is just DELICIOUSLY perfect
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,522
    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    Very good article, and a very useful word.
    Have people on here really not heard 'edgelord' before? I'm pretty sure it was in circulation when I was at university a couple of decades ago. I'm sure I've seen people use the term on here, too (we have plenty of our own!).
    2020: @edmundintokyo

    The edgelord demographic is much less prevalent in the general population than they are on Twitter.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2990951/#Comment_2990951
    Perhaps the concept is more familiar than the word. 'Annoying attention seeker whose opinions lack commitment and depth and collapse into incoherence when challenged on the detail of their weakest points' is familiar to lots of people for whom the form 'XXXXlord' is automatically filtered out.

    Moi? surely not....
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,551
    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    Very good article, and a very useful word.
    The PB Centrist Dads have just discovered the word "edgelord", along with their living deity, Adrian Chiles
    As the Platonic ideal of an edgelord it's surprising that you have derived no wisdom from this early knowledge.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,639
    stodge said:

    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    Tice announced yesterday employees in the ten Reform councils will no longer be allowed to join the Local Govt defined benefit pension scheme and those already in it will get lower pay rises to compensate (penalise).

    Can't see that surviving tribunals

    Membership of the LGPS has always been voluntary - most join and those looking for a career in local Government join and do well from it (and I can't help but feel instead of throwing rocks at schemes like the LGPS, people should be asking why schemes like that don't exist in the private sector).

    Those who don't join get more money (as they don't pay in their contributions or indeed the employer's contributions which would save the authority money as well) so it's not a question of being penalised.

    Kent would continue to have obligations to the LGPS (as indeed do all councils) for decades to come.

    I think you would be looking at changing contracts from a legal point of view (which the authority could do at a cost).

    I'm also not sure of the legality of a mandatory "opt out" - a mandatory "opt in" would be eqaully wrong but offering staff an informed choice would be best.
    Back when I was a London councillor, there were some years when a third of the revenue brought in by the capped inflation-increase we were allowed in Council Tax had to be dedicated to the rising costs of the LGPS for current, retired and deferred members - back when low interest rates were magnifying (arguably over-estimating) the cost of scheme liabilities. I'd expect schemes are in much better shape now that interest rates are back at more 'normal' levels - but if the Trump Slump pushes rates back down, maintaining the funding level of local LGPS schemes could once again be a significant burden on local authorities.
    Yes, the LPGS was under severe pressure as a result of the Global Financial Crisis and that's why the rules were changed to increase employer and employee contributions (particularly for senior officers) and the benefits (especially the post-redundancy lump sum) were reduced.

    There was one set of changes in 2008 and another in 2014 and it's nowhere near as "gold plated" as some would have you believe.

    The loss of one million local Government roles from 2012 also had an impact but there are a lot of retired former local Government workers out there (I'm one) and the different pension schemes (such as the ones for Teachers, the ones for Firefighters) all work differently so going on about "public sector pensions" betrays an ignorance of the subject.
    As one of the founder members of the national LGPS (then shadow) board, hopefully I know a little about it. Back then the Tory government was clearly eyeing the scheme and its considerable funds - and now of course Labour is doing the same. I doubt they will be able to directly nick them, as the Tories did with Royal Mail's fund, but they certainly want to push funds into investing in 'infrastructure', reducing the cost of government doing so. Whether there will be a return from doing so, and what the risks are, remains to be seen.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,552
    pm215 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Fishing said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    First?

    Rants against the modern world. My MIL died in January. SSE are now threatening to cut her off.
    They have sent a letter saying "please get in touch if you need help"
    No phone number.
    Go on their website and they say that the customer number on their letter is too short.
    Chat has an option of speak to an advisor. When you click on it you can go back or close. No other options.
    Advising re bereavement is an option but nothing happens.

    We are changing our account.

    This is an egregious instance of a characteristic and strange phenomenon.

    We were all used in the olden days of the contemptuous indifference of monopolies like gas board, telephones etc; one of the reasons for the support there was for Thatcher's revolution, now 40 years old.

    One of its central points was that good service drives out bad, and in so many fields this works. Food retailers are keen to be open, accessible, and not poison you.

    Accessing big outfits can be so difficult - no email address, phones not answered, websites don't work or respond etc - while at the same time they swamp you with peremptoryy demands.

    I wonder why the invisible hand is not working better.
    Consumers want good service, but they also want cheap energy or whatever. People rarely need to access customer helplines, but they pay for energy all the time, and when they are choosing suppliers are far more likely to make a decision on the basis of price, rather than customer experience, especially if they've had no experience of the provider's dire call centres.

    Of course all providers in the energy supply market face the same incentives, unless one differentiates itself by going for the higher quality service market at higher prices. But I'm not sure that's a viable strategy.
    A further puzzle then. No-one contacts a utility etc unless they have to. Is it not more cost effective for the companies to provide rapid, skilled effective service for those who do rather than have every transaction lengthened by uselessness? Ditto banks. We don't spend all day making nuisance calls to gas providers and banks for fun.
    I have a suspicion that in fact most customer service calls are the trivial kind that could have been dealt with by the customer on the website and where a level 1 call centre employee following a script *is* the rapid effective service. If customer service call centres were only getting calls for the oddball corner cases they wouldn't need to be as big as they are.
    I've just accessed my gas/elec account, where there's a helpful CS notice saying that Variable prices are going down from July. Find out how it impacts you. Prices going down? Great. But click through to the find out page and, lo & behold, it's the limiting price cap that's going down, so the customer will be paying more!
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,095
    Leon said:

    The fact the PB Centrist dads all admire the writing of..... Adrian Chiles.... is just DELICIOUSLY perfect

    I don't! There were two bits of sloppiness in the first few paragraphs:

    Then I asked one of my handlers at the Guardian, who not only knew the word but also failed to hide their surprise that I hadn’t.

    I’m not sure what the OED thinks it is doing spelling customises with a z, by the way, but I’ll let that pass.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,035
    edited June 5
    From YouGov https://x.com/YouGov/status/1930551306197909522?s=19
    Britons tend to believe the government are handling most key issues badly

    Terrorism: +3 net handling well
    Defence: -7
    Transport: -23
    Education: -27
    Environment: -29
    Brexit: -33
    Unemployment: -36
    Inflation: -39
    Crime: -45
    NHS: -48
    Housing: -50
    Economy: -52
    Welfare: -53
    Taxation: -58
    Immigration: -60

    These figures are terminal - less than 20% say 'doing fairly well' on almost everything
    Doing 'very well' is at 1 or 2% on almost every issue.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,387
    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    Very good article, and a very useful word.
    The PB Centrist Dads have just discovered the word "edgelord", along with their living deity, Adrian Chiles
    I thought it was a character in Doctor Who.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,387

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov finds Rayner only ties Farage on a best PM poll at 28% each while Starmer leads Farage 44% to 29%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1930211910881820719

    These results do not pass the sniff test. How have they got Starmer so far ahead?
    Starmer gets support from LDs, Greens, SNP and PC supporters in a head-to-head with Farage.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,601

    From YouGov https://x.com/YouGov/status/1930551306197909522?s=19
    Britons tend to believe the government are handling most key issues badly

    Terrorism: +3 net handling well
    Defence: -7
    Transport: -23
    Education: -27
    Environment: -29
    Brexit: -33
    Unemployment: -36
    Inflation: -39
    Crime: -45
    NHS: -48
    Housing: -50
    Economy: -52
    Welfare: -53
    Taxation: -58
    Immigration: -60

    These figures are terminal - less than 20% say 'doing fairly well' on almost everything

    They are certainly terrible when you see where people's priorities are
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,601

    I will be starting at VodafoneThree tomorrow so I’m afraid I will be restricted from posting because of social media policies.

    I realise I’m semi-anonymous here but in any event because of the area I’m working in I’ve had to explain my social media posting in its entirety so they’re aware I’ve posted here.

    But I will continue to lurk.

    Good luck to the kind folks here - this is an exciting chapter for me and I think for the entire telecoms industry.

    Good luck in your new job
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,014
    edited June 5

    HYUFD said:

    Amongst voters as a whole Johnson is seen as the best bet for the Tories, though amongst current Tory voters Cameron is most respected.


    'When asked who they thought would do a good job as leader of the Conservatives in the future, Mr Johnson polled best but with a score of just 28%. This was better than Reform’s Mr Farage (25%), former foreign secretary James Cleverly (20%), Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick (18%), Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel (14%) and former home secretary Suella Braverman (12%).

    Among current Conservative supporters, there is high regard for former PM Mr Cameron. More than three in four (76%) think he did a good job – a higher rating than that enjoyed by Rishi Sunak (71%), Mr Johnson (69%), Mrs May (56%) and Ms Truss (8%).'
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2064463/boris-johnson-reform-uk-poll

    Cameron - a good job? He fucked up the Referendum timing, then with his disastrous "renegotiation" followed by his toddler tantrum when people doubted its value. Then pissed off the moment his Referendum went against him - despite saying he would not.

    The bar for doing a good job must have sunk towards the ground through May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak and Starmer if people think that was a "good job".
    I think Cameron did a goodish job 2010-2015 and was 'unlucky' that the Tory campaign decimated the Lib Dems. Had there had to be a second coalition there would have be no referendum in 2016 and we might all be a bit happier. (Or not - the EU would still be a festering sore on British politics - add in the vaccine scandal that would have arisen in 2020).

    As for leaving after the Brexit vote - he had to. He had tied himself to the mast of remain and lost. His authority was gone. If he had been neutral and said that he would do as 'instructed, whether leave or remain' then he could have carried on. But he didn't.
    No Referendum in 2016 would likely have meant a UKIP force that was large enough to be at least part of Government. It was seriously estering sore b 2016.

    Cameron wasn't "unlucky" on the LibDems - the LibDems committed seppuku with their voters. Their policy blades pointed in so many directions, one was going to disembowel them.

    Cameron giving himself no wriggle room after the Referendum vote was arguably another reason why he was a shite PM.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,631

    MattW said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    The London local elections next year will be informative as to the state of opinion in the capital and may not be positive for either Labour or the Conservatives but that's for a different thread.

    The Find Out Now London polling from a month ago had, for a Mayoral election with unnamed candidates, Labour on 33%, Reform and the Conservatives tied on 20%, the Greens on 13% and the LDs on 10%. In 2024, despite all the post-election Twitter-driven nonsense, Khan easily beat Hall by eleven points.

    That said, I'd put Hall's result up there with Jeremy Hunt holding his seat at the GE as the best Conservative electoral performances of 2024. She got 33%, a weeks later the Party got 21% while, for all the talk about how disliked he was, Labour at the GE polled about the same as Khan.

    What will Khan do? I've long stated in 2020, when he decided to run for another term, he made an enormous personal miscalculation. He believed at that point Labour were doomed to be in opposition for at least another term. There was no point him going into the Commons as an opposition backbench MP at an election in 2023 or 2024 while he could remain London Mayor with all the publicity that engenders.

    As with most of us, Khan did not foresee the implosion of the Conservatives and the rise of Starmer - Khan COULD now be a prominent Labour MP (perhaps even in the Cabinet) but instead he's just the Mayor of London.

    Will he decide to jump to the Commons next time? Time isn't on his side - he'll be 58 by the time of the next election but if he had any thought he would lose a London Mayoral election, I could see him seeking out one of the "safe" London seats (East Ham perhaps?).

    A different Labour candidate would probably win but who? I think a "celebrity" is unlikely - I sometimes wonder if Newham's Mayor, Roksana Fiaz, has ambitions beyond her Borough but we'll see. It's not a market anyone should play until we know much more about Khan's intentions.

    The Reform and Conservative choices will also be interesting - Reform will do well in some parts of London next year but not in others but probably not in enough parts to win the Mayoralty. The Conservatives are shattered and if they lose further ground next year, who would want the candidacy? Cleverly might see himself as a Party leader but a leader of what? The Greens, LDs and Corbyn will nibble round the edges but in the end Labour's support is deep enough and broad enough to win a fragmented race - against a single non-Labour candidate it would be different.

    I think most who are Mayors prefer it to a cabinet position. You are a public figure, and you get to make your community better.

    Listen to Andy Burnham's introduction before Rachel Reeves spoke at the launch of her Mayoral settlements in the bus factory this week. He's glowing like a Ready Brek Central Heating for Kids advert.

    All the money for the East Midlands (Notts/Derbys) is going to the extreme South - the two cities. Boo !)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufLONX4i42M
    Andy Burnham is a very impressive mayor
    One number he quoted in his speech was economic 3.1% growth p/a from 2015 to 2025 in GM. I'm not sure of the provenance of the figure.

    I just want a Bee Network.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,552

    From YouGov https://x.com/YouGov/status/1930551306197909522?s=19
    Britons tend to believe the government are handling most key issues badly

    Terrorism: +3 net handling well
    Defence: -7
    Transport: -23
    Education: -27
    Environment: -29
    Brexit: -33
    Unemployment: -36
    Inflation: -39
    Crime: -45
    NHS: -48
    Housing: -50
    Economy: -52
    Welfare: -53
    Taxation: -58
    Immigration: -60

    These figures are terminal - less than 20% say 'doing fairly well' on almost everything
    Doing 'very well' is at 1 or 2% on almost every issue.

    They may look terminal but how do they compare with what people expect of party X?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,601
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    The London local elections next year will be informative as to the state of opinion in the capital and may not be positive for either Labour or the Conservatives but that's for a different thread.

    The Find Out Now London polling from a month ago had, for a Mayoral election with unnamed candidates, Labour on 33%, Reform and the Conservatives tied on 20%, the Greens on 13% and the LDs on 10%. In 2024, despite all the post-election Twitter-driven nonsense, Khan easily beat Hall by eleven points.

    That said, I'd put Hall's result up there with Jeremy Hunt holding his seat at the GE as the best Conservative electoral performances of 2024. She got 33%, a weeks later the Party got 21% while, for all the talk about how disliked he was, Labour at the GE polled about the same as Khan.

    What will Khan do? I've long stated in 2020, when he decided to run for another term, he made an enormous personal miscalculation. He believed at that point Labour were doomed to be in opposition for at least another term. There was no point him going into the Commons as an opposition backbench MP at an election in 2023 or 2024 while he could remain London Mayor with all the publicity that engenders.

    As with most of us, Khan did not foresee the implosion of the Conservatives and the rise of Starmer - Khan COULD now be a prominent Labour MP (perhaps even in the Cabinet) but instead he's just the Mayor of London.

    Will he decide to jump to the Commons next time? Time isn't on his side - he'll be 58 by the time of the next election but if he had any thought he would lose a London Mayoral election, I could see him seeking out one of the "safe" London seats (East Ham perhaps?).

    A different Labour candidate would probably win but who? I think a "celebrity" is unlikely - I sometimes wonder if Newham's Mayor, Roksana Fiaz, has ambitions beyond her Borough but we'll see. It's not a market anyone should play until we know much more about Khan's intentions.

    The Reform and Conservative choices will also be interesting - Reform will do well in some parts of London next year but not in others but probably not in enough parts to win the Mayoralty. The Conservatives are shattered and if they lose further ground next year, who would want the candidacy? Cleverly might see himself as a Party leader but a leader of what? The Greens, LDs and Corbyn will nibble round the edges but in the end Labour's support is deep enough and broad enough to win a fragmented race - against a single non-Labour candidate it would be different.

    I think most who are Mayors prefer it to a cabinet position. You are a public figure, and you get to make your community better.

    Listen to Andy Burnham's introduction before Rachel Reeves spoke at the launch of her Mayoral settlements in the bus factory this week. He's glowing like a Ready Brek Central Heating for Kids advert.

    All the money for the East Midlands (Notts/Derbys) is going to the extreme South - the two cities. Boo !)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufLONX4i42M
    Andy Burnham is a very impressive mayor
    One number he quoted in his speech was economic 3.1% growth p/a from 2015 to 2025 in GM. I'm not sure of the provenance of the figure.

    I just want a Bee Network.
    He completely outshone Reeves, though that is not a high bar
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,249
    edited June 5
    I'm amazed by all these people who have never come across the word 'Edgelord'. Surely it's been used here dozens of times, for years? I've just done a quick search on Vanilla, and I can find 51 posts before today - going back as far as Vanilla goes, which I think is to 2021 - which include the word. Now that's not as many as the word "Wick", for example, or "Radiohead", but hardly obscure.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/search?Page=&Search=edgelord
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,035
    AnneJGP said:

    From YouGov https://x.com/YouGov/status/1930551306197909522?s=19
    Britons tend to believe the government are handling most key issues badly

    Terrorism: +3 net handling well
    Defence: -7
    Transport: -23
    Education: -27
    Environment: -29
    Brexit: -33
    Unemployment: -36
    Inflation: -39
    Crime: -45
    NHS: -48
    Housing: -50
    Economy: -52
    Welfare: -53
    Taxation: -58
    Immigration: -60

    These figures are terminal - less than 20% say 'doing fairly well' on almost everything
    Doing 'very well' is at 1 or 2% on almost every issue.

    They may look terminal but how do they compare with what people expect of party X?
    Good question!
    I think they are terminal enough that the electorate will be shopping elsewhere as in anywhere else
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,387
    Cookie said:

    I'm amazed by all these people who have never come across the word 'Edgelord'. Surely it's been used here dozens of times, for years? I've just done a quick search on Vanilla, and I can find 51 posts before today - going back as far as Vanilla goes, which I think is to 2021 - which include the word. Now that's not as many as the word "Wick", for example, or "Radiohead", but hardly obscure.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/search?Page=&Search=edgelord

    I've heard of it but was always too lazy to find out exactly what it meant.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,601
    Cookie said:

    I'm amazed by all these people who have never come across the word 'Edgelord'. Surely it's been used here dozens of times, for years? I've just done a quick search on Vanilla, and I can find 51 posts before today - going back as far as Vanilla goes, which I think is to 2021 - which include the word. Now that's not as many as the word "Wick", for example, or "Radiohead", but hardly obscure.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/search?Page=&Search=edgelord

    I have never heard of the word Edgelord but as far as Wick is concerned it is where my wife lived during WW2
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,630

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov finds Rayner only ties Farage on a best PM poll at 28% each while Starmer leads Farage 44% to 29%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1930211910881820719

    These results do not pass the sniff test. How have they got Starmer so far ahead?
    It's relative and Farage is poison to a large majority of voters. A group to which everyone I know belongs.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,631
    Cookie said:

    I'm amazed by all these people who have never come across the word 'Edgelord'. Surely it's been used here dozens of times, for years? I've just done a quick search on Vanilla, and I can find 51 posts before today - going back as far as Vanilla goes, which I think is to 2021 - which include the word. Now that's not as many as the word "Wick", for example, or "Radiohead", but hardly obscure.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/search?Page=&Search=edgelord

    I did that earlier, and Vanilla goes back further - @Gardenwalker was using "edgelands" (for I think, debased urban fringe) in 2016.

    2020: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2990951/#Comment_2990951
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,601
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov finds Rayner only ties Farage on a best PM poll at 28% each while Starmer leads Farage 44% to 29%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1930211910881820719

    These results do not pass the sniff test. How have they got Starmer so far ahead?
    It's relative and Farage is poison to a large majority of voters. A group to which everyone I know belongs.
    You need to get out more then

    I utterly reject Farage but I am aware of people who are very much on board with him
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,135
    Reeves is on very borrowed time me thinks...


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    11m
    These are catastrophic numbers on economic competence for the Government.

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1930564552069915107
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,920
    AnneJGP said:

    pm215 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Fishing said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    First?

    Rants against the modern world. My MIL died in January. SSE are now threatening to cut her off.
    They have sent a letter saying "please get in touch if you need help"
    No phone number.
    Go on their website and they say that the customer number on their letter is too short.
    Chat has an option of speak to an advisor. When you click on it you can go back or close. No other options.
    Advising re bereavement is an option but nothing happens.

    We are changing our account.

    This is an egregious instance of a characteristic and strange phenomenon.

    We were all used in the olden days of the contemptuous indifference of monopolies like gas board, telephones etc; one of the reasons for the support there was for Thatcher's revolution, now 40 years old.

    One of its central points was that good service drives out bad, and in so many fields this works. Food retailers are keen to be open, accessible, and not poison you.

    Accessing big outfits can be so difficult - no email address, phones not answered, websites don't work or respond etc - while at the same time they swamp you with peremptoryy demands.

    I wonder why the invisible hand is not working better.
    Consumers want good service, but they also want cheap energy or whatever. People rarely need to access customer helplines, but they pay for energy all the time, and when they are choosing suppliers are far more likely to make a decision on the basis of price, rather than customer experience, especially if they've had no experience of the provider's dire call centres.

    Of course all providers in the energy supply market face the same incentives, unless one differentiates itself by going for the higher quality service market at higher prices. But I'm not sure that's a viable strategy.
    A further puzzle then. No-one contacts a utility etc unless they have to. Is it not more cost effective for the companies to provide rapid, skilled effective service for those who do rather than have every transaction lengthened by uselessness? Ditto banks. We don't spend all day making nuisance calls to gas providers and banks for fun.
    I have a suspicion that in fact most customer service calls are the trivial kind that could have been dealt with by the customer on the website and where a level 1 call centre employee following a script *is* the rapid effective service. If customer service call centres were only getting calls for the oddball corner cases they wouldn't need to be as big as they are.
    I've just accessed my gas/elec account, where there's a helpful CS notice saying that Variable prices are going down from July. Find out how it impacts you. Prices going down? Great. But click through to the find out page and, lo & behold, it's the limiting price cap that's going down, so the customer will be paying more!
    I'm due to renew shortly and find the same. I've been recommended to Octopus but the don't seem to have my home on their postcode list.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,135

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    The London local elections next year will be informative as to the state of opinion in the capital and may not be positive for either Labour or the Conservatives but that's for a different thread.

    The Find Out Now London polling from a month ago had, for a Mayoral election with unnamed candidates, Labour on 33%, Reform and the Conservatives tied on 20%, the Greens on 13% and the LDs on 10%. In 2024, despite all the post-election Twitter-driven nonsense, Khan easily beat Hall by eleven points.

    That said, I'd put Hall's result up there with Jeremy Hunt holding his seat at the GE as the best Conservative electoral performances of 2024. She got 33%, a weeks later the Party got 21% while, for all the talk about how disliked he was, Labour at the GE polled about the same as Khan.

    What will Khan do? I've long stated in 2020, when he decided to run for another term, he made an enormous personal miscalculation. He believed at that point Labour were doomed to be in opposition for at least another term. There was no point him going into the Commons as an opposition backbench MP at an election in 2023 or 2024 while he could remain London Mayor with all the publicity that engenders.

    As with most of us, Khan did not foresee the implosion of the Conservatives and the rise of Starmer - Khan COULD now be a prominent Labour MP (perhaps even in the Cabinet) but instead he's just the Mayor of London.

    Will he decide to jump to the Commons next time? Time isn't on his side - he'll be 58 by the time of the next election but if he had any thought he would lose a London Mayoral election, I could see him seeking out one of the "safe" London seats (East Ham perhaps?).

    A different Labour candidate would probably win but who? I think a "celebrity" is unlikely - I sometimes wonder if Newham's Mayor, Roksana Fiaz, has ambitions beyond her Borough but we'll see. It's not a market anyone should play until we know much more about Khan's intentions.

    The Reform and Conservative choices will also be interesting - Reform will do well in some parts of London next year but not in others but probably not in enough parts to win the Mayoralty. The Conservatives are shattered and if they lose further ground next year, who would want the candidacy? Cleverly might see himself as a Party leader but a leader of what? The Greens, LDs and Corbyn will nibble round the edges but in the end Labour's support is deep enough and broad enough to win a fragmented race - against a single non-Labour candidate it would be different.

    I think most who are Mayors prefer it to a cabinet position. You are a public figure, and you get to make your community better.

    Listen to Andy Burnham's introduction before Rachel Reeves spoke at the launch of her Mayoral settlements in the bus factory this week. He's glowing like a Ready Brek Central Heating for Kids advert.

    All the money for the East Midlands (Notts/Derbys) is going to the extreme South - the two cities. Boo !)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufLONX4i42M
    Andy Burnham is a very impressive mayor
    One number he quoted in his speech was economic 3.1% growth p/a from 2015 to 2025 in GM. I'm not sure of the provenance of the figure.

    I just want a Bee Network.
    He completely outshone Reeves, though that is not a high bar
    Rayner vs The King of the North for next leader?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,630
    Leon said:

    The fact the PB Centrist dads all admire the writing of..... Adrian Chiles.... is just DELICIOUSLY perfect

    Perhaps they are comparing his writing to yours? I've read both and though not a fan of either his are more original.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,704
    @nicholascecil

    Tesla sales slump sees China's BYD overtake Elon Musk's electric car firm in UK

    https://x.com/nicholascecil/status/1930566713822556584
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,561
    Have just discovered Luxembourg has worse weather than London. 200 FEWER hours of sun, more fog and low cloud, colder, slushier winters

    Ouch
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,113
    Cookie said:

    I'm amazed by all these people who have never come across the word 'Edgelord'. Surely it's been used here dozens of times, for years? I've just done a quick search on Vanilla, and I can find 51 posts before today - going back as far as Vanilla goes, which I think is to 2021 - which include the word. Now that's not as many as the word "Wick", for example, or "Radiohead", but hardly obscure.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/search?Page=&Search=edgelord

    I'm entirely in agreement here.
    I read Chiles' column having been clickbaited by the prospect of a "new word".
    Do I need to define clickbait to this forum of fogeys?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,135
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    The London local elections next year will be informative as to the state of opinion in the capital and may not be positive for either Labour or the Conservatives but that's for a different thread.

    The Find Out Now London polling from a month ago had, for a Mayoral election with unnamed candidates, Labour on 33%, Reform and the Conservatives tied on 20%, the Greens on 13% and the LDs on 10%. In 2024, despite all the post-election Twitter-driven nonsense, Khan easily beat Hall by eleven points.

    That said, I'd put Hall's result up there with Jeremy Hunt holding his seat at the GE as the best Conservative electoral performances of 2024. She got 33%, a weeks later the Party got 21% while, for all the talk about how disliked he was, Labour at the GE polled about the same as Khan.

    What will Khan do? I've long stated in 2020, when he decided to run for another term, he made an enormous personal miscalculation. He believed at that point Labour were doomed to be in opposition for at least another term. There was no point him going into the Commons as an opposition backbench MP at an election in 2023 or 2024 while he could remain London Mayor with all the publicity that engenders.

    As with most of us, Khan did not foresee the implosion of the Conservatives and the rise of Starmer - Khan COULD now be a prominent Labour MP (perhaps even in the Cabinet) but instead he's just the Mayor of London.

    Will he decide to jump to the Commons next time? Time isn't on his side - he'll be 58 by the time of the next election but if he had any thought he would lose a London Mayoral election, I could see him seeking out one of the "safe" London seats (East Ham perhaps?).

    A different Labour candidate would probably win but who? I think a "celebrity" is unlikely - I sometimes wonder if Newham's Mayor, Roksana Fiaz, has ambitions beyond her Borough but we'll see. It's not a market anyone should play until we know much more about Khan's intentions.

    The Reform and Conservative choices will also be interesting - Reform will do well in some parts of London next year but not in others but probably not in enough parts to win the Mayoralty. The Conservatives are shattered and if they lose further ground next year, who would want the candidacy? Cleverly might see himself as a Party leader but a leader of what? The Greens, LDs and Corbyn will nibble round the edges but in the end Labour's support is deep enough and broad enough to win a fragmented race - against a single non-Labour candidate it would be different.

    I think most who are Mayors prefer it to a cabinet position. You are a public figure, and you get to make your community better.

    Listen to Andy Burnham's introduction before Rachel Reeves spoke at the launch of her Mayoral settlements in the bus factory this week. He's glowing like a Ready Brek Central Heating for Kids advert.

    All the money for the East Midlands (Notts/Derbys) is going to the extreme South - the two cities. Boo !)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufLONX4i42M
    Andy Burnham is a very impressive mayor
    One number he quoted in his speech was economic 3.1% growth p/a from 2015 to 2025 in GM. I'm not sure of the provenance of the figure.

    I just want a Bee Network.
    "All the money for the East Midlands (Notts/Derbys) is going to the extreme South - the two cities."

    Well it wouldn't be the extreme south if East Midlands included at least Leicester. But I guess they are happy with their own Mayor. Is it still Peter Solsbury? He must be on his 5th term by now. LOL.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,883
    edited June 5

    AnneJGP said:

    pm215 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Fishing said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    First?

    Rants against the modern world. My MIL died in January. SSE are now threatening to cut her off.
    They have sent a letter saying "please get in touch if you need help"
    No phone number.
    Go on their website and they say that the customer number on their letter is too short.
    Chat has an option of speak to an advisor. When you click on it you can go back or close. No other options.
    Advising re bereavement is an option but nothing happens.

    We are changing our account.

    This is an egregious instance of a characteristic and strange phenomenon.

    We were all used in the olden days of the contemptuous indifference of monopolies like gas board, telephones etc; one of the reasons for the support there was for Thatcher's revolution, now 40 years old.

    One of its central points was that good service drives out bad, and in so many fields this works. Food retailers are keen to be open, accessible, and not poison you.

    Accessing big outfits can be so difficult - no email address, phones not answered, websites don't work or respond etc - while at the same time they swamp you with peremptoryy demands.

    I wonder why the invisible hand is not working better.
    Consumers want good service, but they also want cheap energy or whatever. People rarely need to access customer helplines, but they pay for energy all the time, and when they are choosing suppliers are far more likely to make a decision on the basis of price, rather than customer experience, especially if they've had no experience of the provider's dire call centres.

    Of course all providers in the energy supply market face the same incentives, unless one differentiates itself by going for the higher quality service market at higher prices. But I'm not sure that's a viable strategy.
    A further puzzle then. No-one contacts a utility etc unless they have to. Is it not more cost effective for the companies to provide rapid, skilled effective service for those who do rather than have every transaction lengthened by uselessness? Ditto banks. We don't spend all day making nuisance calls to gas providers and banks for fun.
    I have a suspicion that in fact most customer service calls are the trivial kind that could have been dealt with by the customer on the website and where a level 1 call centre employee following a script *is* the rapid effective service. If customer service call centres were only getting calls for the oddball corner cases they wouldn't need to be as big as they are.
    I've just accessed my gas/elec account, where there's a helpful CS notice saying that Variable prices are going down from July. Find out how it impacts you. Prices going down? Great. But click through to the find out page and, lo & behold, it's the limiting price cap that's going down, so the customer will be paying more!
    I'm due to renew shortly and find the same. I've been recommended to Octopus but the don't seem to have my home on their postcode list.
    Take great care if there is an issue with the address. Even a big fine from the Ombudsman won't stop them repeatedly sending the bailiffs round.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,522

    From YouGov https://x.com/YouGov/status/1930551306197909522?s=19
    Britons tend to believe the government are handling most key issues badly

    Terrorism: +3 net handling well
    Defence: -7
    Transport: -23
    Education: -27
    Environment: -29
    Brexit: -33
    Unemployment: -36
    Inflation: -39
    Crime: -45
    NHS: -48
    Housing: -50
    Economy: -52
    Welfare: -53
    Taxation: -58
    Immigration: -60

    These figures are terminal - less than 20% say 'doing fairly well' on almost everything
    Doing 'very well' is at 1 or 2% on almost every issue.

    As usual this lacks any insight into what people mean by the answers. It gives quantitative analysis of one word replies to questions which are only meaningful if understood both holistically and qualitatively. This allows people to be negative about a government simply, for example, because the responder wants a low tax and high spend government.

    We all know that to govern is to choose The extent to which we have overlooked that to have an opinion and to vote is to choose as well has gone too far. Hence the abundance of meaningless low cost surveys.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,920

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov finds Rayner only ties Farage on a best PM poll at 28% each while Starmer leads Farage 44% to 29%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1930211910881820719

    These results do not pass the sniff test. How have they got Starmer so far ahead?
    It's relative and Farage is poison to a large majority of voters. A group to which everyone I know belongs.
    You need to get out more then

    I utterly reject Farage but I am aware of people who are very much on board with him
    There's a chap with whom I occasionally drink who seems to think he's the bees knees but otherwise others whom I discuss politics prod him metaphorically with a sharp stick.
    And we're not that far from Clacton!
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,883

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov finds Rayner only ties Farage on a best PM poll at 28% each while Starmer leads Farage 44% to 29%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1930211910881820719

    These results do not pass the sniff test. How have they got Starmer so far ahead?
    It's relative and Farage is poison to a large majority of voters. A group to which everyone I know belongs.
    You need to get out more then

    I utterly reject Farage but I am aware of people who are very much on board with him
    Would you vote for Reform over Labour?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,601

    Reeves is on very borrowed time me thinks...


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    11m
    These are catastrophic numbers on economic competence for the Government.

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1930564552069915107

    If talking, press conferences, announcements, promises won round voters then Labour would be miles ahead

    Unfortunately for them Starmer's US deal is not confirmed yet, Reeves announcements of 15 billion yesterday is from 2027, and the free school meals is not before 2026

    Until people feel change, Labour will not get any credit
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,936

    HYUFD said:

    Amongst voters as a whole Johnson is seen as the best bet for the Tories, though amongst current Tory voters Cameron is most respected.


    'When asked who they thought would do a good job as leader of the Conservatives in the future, Mr Johnson polled best but with a score of just 28%. This was better than Reform’s Mr Farage (25%), former foreign secretary James Cleverly (20%), Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick (18%), Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel (14%) and former home secretary Suella Braverman (12%).

    Among current Conservative supporters, there is high regard for former PM Mr Cameron. More than three in four (76%) think he did a good job – a higher rating than that enjoyed by Rishi Sunak (71%), Mr Johnson (69%), Mrs May (56%) and Ms Truss (8%).'
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2064463/boris-johnson-reform-uk-poll

    Cameron - a good job? He fucked up the Referendum timing, then with his disastrous "renegotiation" followed by his toddler tantrum when people doubted its value. Then pissed off the moment his Referendum went against him - despite saying he would not.

    The bar for doing a good job must have sunk towards the ground through May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak and Starmer if people think that was a "good job".
    I think Cameron did a goodish job 2010-2015 and was 'unlucky' that the Tory campaign decimated the Lib Dems. Had there had to be a second coalition there would have be no referendum in 2016 and we might all be a bit happier. (Or not - the EU would still be a festering sore on British politics - add in the vaccine scandal that would have arisen in 2020).

    As for leaving after the Brexit vote - he had to. He had tied himself to the mast of remain and lost. His authority was gone. If he had been neutral and said that he would do as 'instructed, whether leave or remain' then he could have carried on. But he didn't.
    Unlucky!!! Wasn't that the plan? Cameron's Tories 'won' their majority from their erstwhile partners; they had a net LOSS (admittedly of one) to Labour.
    Yes - it was the plan but I think Cameron didn't expect it to work quite so well. I think a conservative/lib dem coalition works for a lot of the country. The lib dems to temper the worst of the right wing of the Tories and the Tories to counter the more unworkable bits of Lib Dem policy.

    However that was the old Tory party, which is gone now, and may not return.
    The current Tory party has plenty of fans of the Cameron-Clegg coalition, most of those who hated it are now in Reform
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,522
    MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    I'm amazed by all these people who have never come across the word 'Edgelord'. Surely it's been used here dozens of times, for years? I've just done a quick search on Vanilla, and I can find 51 posts before today - going back as far as Vanilla goes, which I think is to 2021 - which include the word. Now that's not as many as the word "Wick", for example, or "Radiohead", but hardly obscure.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/search?Page=&Search=edgelord

    I did that earlier, and Vanilla goes back further - @Gardenwalker was using "edgelands" (for I think, debased urban fringe) in 2016.

    2020: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2990951/#Comment_2990951
    'Edgelands' is a book on that subject first published in 2012.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,035

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov finds Rayner only ties Farage on a best PM poll at 28% each while Starmer leads Farage 44% to 29%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1930211910881820719

    These results do not pass the sniff test. How have they got Starmer so far ahead?
    It's relative and Farage is poison to a large majority of voters. A group to which everyone I know belongs.
    You need to get out more then

    I utterly reject Farage but I am aware of people who are very much on board with him
    There's a chap with whom I occasionally drink who seems to think he's the bees knees but otherwise others whom I discuss politics prod him metaphorically with a sharp stick.
    And we're not that far from Clacton!
    Frinton are voting in a by election today, we can see what some of the good burghers of Clacton constituency think of him!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,936

    https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1930519946741600433

    I know what it’s like to be part of a family trying to make ends meet.

    My Plan for Change will make life easier for hard working people across our country.

    We are providing free school meals to more than half a million more children, and putting £500 back in parents' pockets.

    Bone for the Labour left from Starmer there
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,920
    Eabhal said:

    AnneJGP said:

    pm215 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Fishing said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    First?

    Rants against the modern world. My MIL died in January. SSE are now threatening to cut her off.
    They have sent a letter saying "please get in touch if you need help"
    No phone number.
    Go on their website and they say that the customer number on their letter is too short.
    Chat has an option of speak to an advisor. When you click on it you can go back or close. No other options.
    Advising re bereavement is an option but nothing happens.

    We are changing our account.

    This is an egregious instance of a characteristic and strange phenomenon.

    We were all used in the olden days of the contemptuous indifference of monopolies like gas board, telephones etc; one of the reasons for the support there was for Thatcher's revolution, now 40 years old.

    One of its central points was that good service drives out bad, and in so many fields this works. Food retailers are keen to be open, accessible, and not poison you.

    Accessing big outfits can be so difficult - no email address, phones not answered, websites don't work or respond etc - while at the same time they swamp you with peremptoryy demands.

    I wonder why the invisible hand is not working better.
    Consumers want good service, but they also want cheap energy or whatever. People rarely need to access customer helplines, but they pay for energy all the time, and when they are choosing suppliers are far more likely to make a decision on the basis of price, rather than customer experience, especially if they've had no experience of the provider's dire call centres.

    Of course all providers in the energy supply market face the same incentives, unless one differentiates itself by going for the higher quality service market at higher prices. But I'm not sure that's a viable strategy.
    A further puzzle then. No-one contacts a utility etc unless they have to. Is it not more cost effective for the companies to provide rapid, skilled effective service for those who do rather than have every transaction lengthened by uselessness? Ditto banks. We don't spend all day making nuisance calls to gas providers and banks for fun.
    I have a suspicion that in fact most customer service calls are the trivial kind that could have been dealt with by the customer on the website and where a level 1 call centre employee following a script *is* the rapid effective service. If customer service call centres were only getting calls for the oddball corner cases they wouldn't need to be as big as they are.
    I've just accessed my gas/elec account, where there's a helpful CS notice saying that Variable prices are going down from July. Find out how it impacts you. Prices going down? Great. But click through to the find out page and, lo & behold, it's the limiting price cap that's going down, so the customer will be paying more!
    I'm due to renew shortly and find the same. I've been recommended to Octopus but the don't seem to have my home on their postcode list.
    Take great care if there is an issue with the address. Even a big fine from the Ombudsman won't stop them repeatedly sending the bailiffs round.
    That's my concern. There's one in their list that it might be, but I'm not taking any chances. I've asked them ...... I'm not guessing ...... to try and identify me, but if they can't that's it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,631
    edited June 5

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    The London local elections next year will be informative as to the state of opinion in the capital and may not be positive for either Labour or the Conservatives but that's for a different thread.

    The Find Out Now London polling from a month ago had, for a Mayoral election with unnamed candidates, Labour on 33%, Reform and the Conservatives tied on 20%, the Greens on 13% and the LDs on 10%. In 2024, despite all the post-election Twitter-driven nonsense, Khan easily beat Hall by eleven points.

    That said, I'd put Hall's result up there with Jeremy Hunt holding his seat at the GE as the best Conservative electoral performances of 2024. She got 33%, a weeks later the Party got 21% while, for all the talk about how disliked he was, Labour at the GE polled about the same as Khan.

    What will Khan do? I've long stated in 2020, when he decided to run for another term, he made an enormous personal miscalculation. He believed at that point Labour were doomed to be in opposition for at least another term. There was no point him going into the Commons as an opposition backbench MP at an election in 2023 or 2024 while he could remain London Mayor with all the publicity that engenders.

    As with most of us, Khan did not foresee the implosion of the Conservatives and the rise of Starmer - Khan COULD now be a prominent Labour MP (perhaps even in the Cabinet) but instead he's just the Mayor of London.

    Will he decide to jump to the Commons next time? Time isn't on his side - he'll be 58 by the time of the next election but if he had any thought he would lose a London Mayoral election, I could see him seeking out one of the "safe" London seats (East Ham perhaps?).

    A different Labour candidate would probably win but who? I think a "celebrity" is unlikely - I sometimes wonder if Newham's Mayor, Roksana Fiaz, has ambitions beyond her Borough but we'll see. It's not a market anyone should play until we know much more about Khan's intentions.

    The Reform and Conservative choices will also be interesting - Reform will do well in some parts of London next year but not in others but probably not in enough parts to win the Mayoralty. The Conservatives are shattered and if they lose further ground next year, who would want the candidacy? Cleverly might see himself as a Party leader but a leader of what? The Greens, LDs and Corbyn will nibble round the edges but in the end Labour's support is deep enough and broad enough to win a fragmented race - against a single non-Labour candidate it would be different.

    I think most who are Mayors prefer it to a cabinet position. You are a public figure, and you get to make your community better.

    Listen to Andy Burnham's introduction before Rachel Reeves spoke at the launch of her Mayoral settlements in the bus factory this week. He's glowing like a Ready Brek Central Heating for Kids advert.

    All the money for the East Midlands (Notts/Derbys) is going to the extreme South - the two cities. Boo !)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufLONX4i42M
    Andy Burnham is a very impressive mayor
    One number he quoted in his speech was economic 3.1% growth p/a from 2015 to 2025 in GM. I'm not sure of the provenance of the figure.

    I just want a Bee Network.
    He completely outshone Reeves, though that is not a high bar
    I think her speech was too technocratic for an audience of bus manufacturing workers; the audience standing behind her looked tranquilised. But why can't at least one of these people do the Rabbit Ears behind the politician's head?

    I'm still of the view that we can't call the outcome yet for the Starmer Govt, because it will be at least another 15-18 months before we can possibly see results of policy changes so far.

    They need clearly to deliver on Health, Wealth, Growth, Housing, Financial Stability and a couple of others.

    I think they are doing long-term policy with a care we have not seen for decades, and eg the Defence Review seems to have been of a quality we have again not seen for a long, long time. But everyone is correctly asking "Where's the CASH ?"

    The Cons are still nowhere, and Farage is a man walking around wearing a barrel, carrying a sign saying "I'm a fish; shoot me !".

    Apart from the Govt's very weak comms, I'm concerned that they may not make sufficient use of the 18-24 months they have to implement significant reforms.

    On the London Mayor, I expect that Sadiq will stand again.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,035
    algarkirk said:

    From YouGov https://x.com/YouGov/status/1930551306197909522?s=19
    Britons tend to believe the government are handling most key issues badly

    Terrorism: +3 net handling well
    Defence: -7
    Transport: -23
    Education: -27
    Environment: -29
    Brexit: -33
    Unemployment: -36
    Inflation: -39
    Crime: -45
    NHS: -48
    Housing: -50
    Economy: -52
    Welfare: -53
    Taxation: -58
    Immigration: -60

    These figures are terminal - less than 20% say 'doing fairly well' on almost everything
    Doing 'very well' is at 1 or 2% on almost every issue.

    As usual this lacks any insight into what people mean by the answers. It gives quantitative analysis of one word replies to questions which are only meaningful if understood both holistically and qualitatively. This allows people to be negative about a government simply, for example, because the responder wants a low tax and high spend government.

    We all know that to govern is to choose The extent to which we have overlooked that to have an opinion and to vote is to choose as well has gone too far. Hence the abundance of meaningless low cost surveys.
    It's only meaningless if you're looking for detail on what the public want. If you just want a snapshot of how the government is regarded and what their reelection prospects are, its perfect. They get heavy negative responses on every big electoral issue
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,920

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov finds Rayner only ties Farage on a best PM poll at 28% each while Starmer leads Farage 44% to 29%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1930211910881820719

    These results do not pass the sniff test. How have they got Starmer so far ahead?
    It's relative and Farage is poison to a large majority of voters. A group to which everyone I know belongs.
    You need to get out more then

    I utterly reject Farage but I am aware of people who are very much on board with him
    There's a chap with whom I occasionally drink who seems to think he's the bees knees but otherwise others whom I discuss politics prod him metaphorically with a sharp stick.
    And we're not that far from Clacton!
    Frinton are voting in a by election today, we can see what some of the good burghers of Clacton constituency think of him!
    Once upon a time at least the 'good burghers' of Frinton would have regarded Farage with horror as a jumped up oik who certainly wasn't a 'gentleman'. Even though he went to a public school.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,601
    Eabhal said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov finds Rayner only ties Farage on a best PM poll at 28% each while Starmer leads Farage 44% to 29%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1930211910881820719

    These results do not pass the sniff test. How have they got Starmer so far ahead?
    It's relative and Farage is poison to a large majority of voters. A group to which everyone I know belongs.
    You need to get out more then

    I utterly reject Farage but I am aware of people who are very much on board with him
    Would you vote for Reform over Labour?
    I have said this before

    I will only vote conservative, but at the next GE it is more likely to be Plaid as the best choice to defeat the Labour mp
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,412
    Eabhal said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov finds Rayner only ties Farage on a best PM poll at 28% each while Starmer leads Farage 44% to 29%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1930211910881820719

    These results do not pass the sniff test. How have they got Starmer so far ahead?
    It's relative and Farage is poison to a large majority of voters. A group to which everyone I know belongs.
    You need to get out more then

    I utterly reject Farage but I am aware of people who are very much on board with him
    Would you vote for Reform over Labour?
    Tempting. Tempting.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,114

    Tice announced yesterday employees in the ten Reform councils will no longer be allowed to join the Local Govt defined benefit pension scheme and those already in it will get lower pay rises to compensate (penalise).
    Can't see that surviving tribunals

    Why not? I’m assuming councils can set their own employment terms but that’s just a change in the benefit package. Employees can strike or resign if they don’t like it.

    Unless they have specific guarantees in individual contracts on the pension rights
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,601
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Amongst voters as a whole Johnson is seen as the best bet for the Tories, though amongst current Tory voters Cameron is most respected.


    'When asked who they thought would do a good job as leader of the Conservatives in the future, Mr Johnson polled best but with a score of just 28%. This was better than Reform’s Mr Farage (25%), former foreign secretary James Cleverly (20%), Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick (18%), Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel (14%) and former home secretary Suella Braverman (12%).

    Among current Conservative supporters, there is high regard for former PM Mr Cameron. More than three in four (76%) think he did a good job – a higher rating than that enjoyed by Rishi Sunak (71%), Mr Johnson (69%), Mrs May (56%) and Ms Truss (8%).'
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2064463/boris-johnson-reform-uk-poll

    Cameron - a good job? He fucked up the Referendum timing, then with his disastrous "renegotiation" followed by his toddler tantrum when people doubted its value. Then pissed off the moment his Referendum went against him - despite saying he would not.

    The bar for doing a good job must have sunk towards the ground through May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak and Starmer if people think that was a "good job".
    I think Cameron did a goodish job 2010-2015 and was 'unlucky' that the Tory campaign decimated the Lib Dems. Had there had to be a second coalition there would have be no referendum in 2016 and we might all be a bit happier. (Or not - the EU would still be a festering sore on British politics - add in the vaccine scandal that would have arisen in 2020).

    As for leaving after the Brexit vote - he had to. He had tied himself to the mast of remain and lost. His authority was gone. If he had been neutral and said that he would do as 'instructed, whether leave or remain' then he could have carried on. But he didn't.
    Unlucky!!! Wasn't that the plan? Cameron's Tories 'won' their majority from their erstwhile partners; they had a net LOSS (admittedly of one) to Labour.
    Yes - it was the plan but I think Cameron didn't expect it to work quite so well. I think a conservative/lib dem coalition works for a lot of the country. The lib dems to temper the worst of the right wing of the Tories and the Tories to counter the more unworkable bits of Lib Dem policy.

    However that was the old Tory party, which is gone now, and may not return.
    The current Tory party has plenty of fans of the Cameron-Clegg coalition, most of those who hated it are now in Reform
    It was a far better government than any Farage-Reform will ever be, and by a mountain mile
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,986
    .
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/ive-learned-a-new-word-and-now-im-seeing-the-people-it-describes-everywhere

    People were slagging Adrian Chiles's columns a while back. I've always enjoyed his writing TBH and this week's column is especially good. I even learned something useful from it.

    Very good article, and a very useful word.
    The PB Centrist Dads have just discovered the word "edgelord", along with their living deity, Adrian Chiles
    I thought it was a character in Doctor Who.
    Chiles as a low key villain is a curious idea.
    Perhaps hired by the weeping angels to get people to doze off, so that they close their eyes ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,412
    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    The fact the PB Centrist dads all admire the writing of..... Adrian Chiles.... is just DELICIOUSLY perfect

    Perhaps they are comparing his writing to yours? I've read both and though not a fan of either his are more original.
    The Phil Collins Secret was an amazing read, IMHO.
  • Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    First?

    Rants against the modern world. My MIL died in January. SSE are now threatening to cut her off.
    They have sent a letter saying "please get in touch if you need help"
    No phone number.
    Go on their website and they say that the customer number on their letter is too short.
    Chat has an option of speak to an advisor. When you click on it you can go back or close. No other options.
    Advising re bereavement is an option but nothing happens.

    We are changing our account.

    Sympathies. I think everyone who's dealt with an estate has at least one similar experience. My favourite was when HMRC wrote to my Dad accusing him of fraudulently claiming child benefit. A few salient facts - he was dead, his only children were in their 40s and he'd never claimed child benefit anyway.
    I dealt with my late Fathers estate. He died with a small amount of savings and little else.

    The only problem I had was with his former pension at Land Rover moved over to BMW. They were so unhelpful and awkward. Took several calls and they still didnt get it right. They even confused my sister as my dad’s wife.
    Yeah, pensions go one way or the other: super-slick and sympathetic, or bumbling incompetence. One insurer couldn't even tell me if death benefits under the scheme were written into trust so as to escape IHT. A fundamental point for administrators of such schemes (and also my old area of law...)

    For the price of a stamp, you could probably have had a pop at the trustees of the BMW scheme via the Pensions Ombudsman and got some psychological satisfaction plus a bit of "compo" for distress and inconvenience, but it would have occupied a lot of your time and mental space.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,986
    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    I'm amazed by all these people who have never come across the word 'Edgelord'. Surely it's been used here dozens of times, for years? I've just done a quick search on Vanilla, and I can find 51 posts before today - going back as far as Vanilla goes, which I think is to 2021 - which include the word. Now that's not as many as the word "Wick", for example, or "Radiohead", but hardly obscure.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/search?Page=&Search=edgelord

    I'm entirely in agreement here.
    I read Chiles' column having been clickbaited by the prospect of a "new word".
    Do I need to define clickbait to this forum of fogeys?
    I felt I'd been rickrolled.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,035

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov finds Rayner only ties Farage on a best PM poll at 28% each while Starmer leads Farage 44% to 29%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1930211910881820719

    These results do not pass the sniff test. How have they got Starmer so far ahead?
    It's relative and Farage is poison to a large majority of voters. A group to which everyone I know belongs.
    You need to get out more then

    I utterly reject Farage but I am aware of people who are very much on board with him
    There's a chap with whom I occasionally drink who seems to think he's the bees knees but otherwise others whom I discuss politics prod him metaphorically with a sharp stick.
    And we're not that far from Clacton!
    Frinton are voting in a by election today, we can see what some of the good burghers of Clacton constituency think of him!
    Once upon a time at least the 'good burghers' of Frinton would have regarded Farage with horror as a jumped up oik who certainly wasn't a 'gentleman'. Even though he went to a public school.
    Frinton I think will be more Conservative than Clacton proper but I think the Reform tidal wave takes it. Tories took it in 2023 with 42% from an indy on 31%. Their only hope is if the indy voters (not standing this time) were all Tories who prefer to come home than go reform.
    Of course if they did hold on they'll be shoving it down Farages throat all summer
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,387
    Interesting comment on UnHerd.

    "Graham Cunningham
    1 hour ago
    ‘Real political power in Britain is massively and disproportionately in the hands of its huge high-caste of lefty lawyers. In the mental universe they inhabit, being all ‘social justicey’ and cleverly subverting the seemingly atavistic concerns of rightist politicians and van-driving, non-graduate types is viewed as a rather fun (and highly lucrative) intellectual chess game. When you – from the vantage point of your multi-million pound dwelling place – are personally insulated from the adverse consequences of those social justicey ‘causes’ you champion, it may indeed seem all very professionally satisfying. And this lawfare game now goes on not just within government and our laughably ‘independent’ judiciary but pretty much everywhere else too.’ https://grahamcunningham.substack.com/p/news-from-nowhere-revisited"

    https://unherd.com/newsroom/why-are-judges-upholding-so-many-exceptional-asylum-claims/
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,805
    Speaking of edgelords, of note that this fairly moonbatty piece is based on a Wings Over Scotland poll. Interesting that WoS is now a go-to source for rightwing Yoons, the rest of the populace (including Indy supporters) not so much.

    https://x.com/ScotExpress/status/1930224644033753520
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,601
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    The London local elections next year will be informative as to the state of opinion in the capital and may not be positive for either Labour or the Conservatives but that's for a different thread.

    The Find Out Now London polling from a month ago had, for a Mayoral election with unnamed candidates, Labour on 33%, Reform and the Conservatives tied on 20%, the Greens on 13% and the LDs on 10%. In 2024, despite all the post-election Twitter-driven nonsense, Khan easily beat Hall by eleven points.

    That said, I'd put Hall's result up there with Jeremy Hunt holding his seat at the GE as the best Conservative electoral performances of 2024. She got 33%, a weeks later the Party got 21% while, for all the talk about how disliked he was, Labour at the GE polled about the same as Khan.

    What will Khan do? I've long stated in 2020, when he decided to run for another term, he made an enormous personal miscalculation. He believed at that point Labour were doomed to be in opposition for at least another term. There was no point him going into the Commons as an opposition backbench MP at an election in 2023 or 2024 while he could remain London Mayor with all the publicity that engenders.

    As with most of us, Khan did not foresee the implosion of the Conservatives and the rise of Starmer - Khan COULD now be a prominent Labour MP (perhaps even in the Cabinet) but instead he's just the Mayor of London.

    Will he decide to jump to the Commons next time? Time isn't on his side - he'll be 58 by the time of the next election but if he had any thought he would lose a London Mayoral election, I could see him seeking out one of the "safe" London seats (East Ham perhaps?).

    A different Labour candidate would probably win but who? I think a "celebrity" is unlikely - I sometimes wonder if Newham's Mayor, Roksana Fiaz, has ambitions beyond her Borough but we'll see. It's not a market anyone should play until we know much more about Khan's intentions.

    The Reform and Conservative choices will also be interesting - Reform will do well in some parts of London next year but not in others but probably not in enough parts to win the Mayoralty. The Conservatives are shattered and if they lose further ground next year, who would want the candidacy? Cleverly might see himself as a Party leader but a leader of what? The Greens, LDs and Corbyn will nibble round the edges but in the end Labour's support is deep enough and broad enough to win a fragmented race - against a single non-Labour candidate it would be different.

    I think most who are Mayors prefer it to a cabinet position. You are a public figure, and you get to make your community better.

    Listen to Andy Burnham's introduction before Rachel Reeves spoke at the launch of her Mayoral settlements in the bus factory this week. He's glowing like a Ready Brek Central Heating for Kids advert.

    All the money for the East Midlands (Notts/Derbys) is going to the extreme South - the two cities. Boo !)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufLONX4i42M
    Andy Burnham is a very impressive mayor
    One number he quoted in his speech was economic 3.1% growth p/a from 2015 to 2025 in GM. I'm not sure of the provenance of the figure.

    I just want a Bee Network.
    He completely outshone Reeves, though that is not a high bar
    I think her speech was too technocratic for an audience of bus manufacturing workers; the audience standing behind her looked tranquilised. But why can't at least one of these people do the Rabbit Ears behind the politician's head?

    I'm still of the view that we can't call the outcome yet for the Starmer Govt, because it will be at least another 15-18 months before we can possibly see results of policy changes so far.

    They need clearly to deliver on Health, Wealth, Growth, Housing, Financial Stability and a couple of others.

    I think they are doing long-term policy with a care we have not seen for decades, and eg the Defence Review seems to have been of a quality we have again not seen for a long, long time. But everyone is correctly asking "Where's the CASH ?"

    The Cons are still nowhere, and Farage is a man walking around wearing a barrel, carrying a sign saying "I'm a fish; shoot me !".

    Apart from the Govt's very weak comms, I'm concerned that they may not make sufficient use of the 18-24 months they have to implement significant reforms.

    On the London Mayor, I expect that Sadiq will stand again.
    I agree entirely

    Reeves speech yesterday shows just how out of touch she is with ordinary voters, and that was demonstrated by the worker's behind her reaction which seems to be all over the media

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,035

    Tice announced yesterday employees in the ten Reform councils will no longer be allowed to join the Local Govt defined benefit pension scheme and those already in it will get lower pay rises to compensate (penalise).
    Can't see that surviving tribunals

    Why not? I’m assuming councils can set their own employment terms but that’s just a change in the benefit package. Employees can strike or resign if they don’t like it.

    Unless they have specific guarantees in individual contracts on the pension rights
    Its the bit about lower pay rises for people staying in the scheme that will fail the 'can't do that' test
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,412
    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    I'm amazed by all these people who have never come across the word 'Edgelord'. Surely it's been used here dozens of times, for years? I've just done a quick search on Vanilla, and I can find 51 posts before today - going back as far as Vanilla goes, which I think is to 2021 - which include the word. Now that's not as many as the word "Wick", for example, or "Radiohead", but hardly obscure.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/search?Page=&Search=edgelord

    I'm entirely in agreement here.
    I read Chiles' column having been clickbaited by the prospect of a "new word".
    Do I need to define clickbait to this forum of fogeys?
    I felt I'd been rickrolled.
    "Never gonna tell a lie and hurt you."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,014
    Leon said:

    Have just discovered Luxembourg has worse weather than London. 200 FEWER hours of sun, more fog and low cloud, colder, slushier winters

    Ouch

    Made tolerable by the mountains of money sloshing about the place?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,986

    Leon said:

    Have just discovered Luxembourg has worse weather than London. 200 FEWER hours of sun, more fog and low cloud, colder, slushier winters

    Ouch

    Made tolerable by the mountains of money sloshing about the place?
    Can't they afford to roof over the whole country ?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,920

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov finds Rayner only ties Farage on a best PM poll at 28% each while Starmer leads Farage 44% to 29%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1930211910881820719

    These results do not pass the sniff test. How have they got Starmer so far ahead?
    It's relative and Farage is poison to a large majority of voters. A group to which everyone I know belongs.
    You need to get out more then

    I utterly reject Farage but I am aware of people who are very much on board with him
    There's a chap with whom I occasionally drink who seems to think he's the bees knees but otherwise others whom I discuss politics prod him metaphorically with a sharp stick.
    And we're not that far from Clacton!
    Frinton are voting in a by election today, we can see what some of the good burghers of Clacton constituency think of him!
    Once upon a time at least the 'good burghers' of Frinton would have regarded Farage with horror as a jumped up oik who certainly wasn't a 'gentleman'. Even though he went to a public school.
    Frinton I think will be more Conservative than Clacton proper but I think the Reform tidal wave takes it. Tories took it in 2023 with 42% from an indy on 31%. Their only hope is if the indy voters (not standing this time) were all Tories who prefer to come home than go reform.
    Of course if they did hold on they'll be shoving it down Farages throat all summer
    I must admit that, while I haven't been to Frinton for some years, it wasn't then, and by report isn't now, what it was.
    They've actually got a pub there now and I believe there was a report of a fight in it!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,986
    “Advisers say Mr. Trump is exasperated with both Putin and Zelensky.

    He reserves special animosity, though, for the leader of the country that was invaded in the first place. Trump has told aides repeatedly that Zelensky is a “bad guy.””

    https://x.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1930352418480353485
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,522
    edited June 5
    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting comment on UnHerd.

    "Graham Cunningham
    1 hour ago
    ‘Real political power in Britain is massively and disproportionately in the hands of its huge high-caste of lefty lawyers. In the mental universe they inhabit, being all ‘social justicey’ and cleverly subverting the seemingly atavistic concerns of rightist politicians and van-driving, non-graduate types is viewed as a rather fun (and highly lucrative) intellectual chess game. When you – from the vantage point of your multi-million pound dwelling place – are personally insulated from the adverse consequences of those social justicey ‘causes’ you champion, it may indeed seem all very professionally satisfying. And this lawfare game now goes on not just within government and our laughably ‘independent’ judiciary but pretty much everywhere else too.’ https://grahamcunningham.substack.com/p/news-from-nowhere-revisited"

    https://unherd.com/newsroom/why-are-judges-upholding-so-many-exceptional-asylum-claims/

    This is nonsense. The lawyers he attacks neither make the law nor do they decide on cases. If he wants to attack the independence of the judiciary he will have to make the case with care. The evidence seems to me to be lacking.

    What he is really attacking is the principle that government and its agencies obey its own laws.

    Anyone following the USA at the moment with any sense will realise how valuable and fragile this principle is.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,986
    Trump: Putin actually said to me, ‘If you don’t mind, friend, I hate to see you as my enemy.’ He said it very strongly. I had a very good relationship with Putin. I had a very good relationship with President Xi. A very good relationship with Kim Jong Un
    https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1930377901683122513
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,631
    The letter sent by Doge UK to Kent County Council:

    https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/1929248578951618591/photo/1
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,412
    Leon said:

    Have just discovered Luxembourg has worse weather than London. 200 FEWER hours of sun, more fog and low cloud, colder, slushier winters

    Ouch

    If it's any consolation, it's been pouring with rain all morning in London...
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,341
    Cookie said:

    I'm amazed by all these people who have never come across the word 'Edgelord'. Surely it's been used here dozens of times, for years? I've just done a quick search on Vanilla, and I can find 51 posts before today - going back as far as Vanilla goes, which I think is to 2021 - which include the word. Now that's not as many as the word "Wick", for example, or "Radiohead", but hardly obscure.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/search?Page=&Search=edgelord

    Edgelords get on my wick, FWIW :wink:

    I won't comment on Radiohead, due to fearing the banhammer (and also, actually, being fairly agnostic on them).
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,522
    edited June 5
    MattW said:

    The letter sent by Doge UK to Kent County Council:

    https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/1929248578951618591/photo/1

    The names of the DOGE team, appended to the letter, referred to on page 1, are not included in the tweet. I wonder who they are.

    Though its tone is a bit repellent, it is proper enough to be sent by the new council leader. Are the other signatories really just trying to show a bit of muscle? What on earth is it to do with them?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,255
    Cookie said:

    I'm amazed by all these people who have never come across the word 'Edgelord'. Surely it's been used here dozens of times, for years? I've just done a quick search on Vanilla, and I can find 51 posts before today - going back as far as Vanilla goes, which I think is to 2021 - which include the word. Now that's not as many as the word "Wick", for example, or "Radiohead", but hardly obscure.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/search?Page=&Search=edgelord

    I'm surprised that Chiles is less than a decade behind. I guess that the internet is good for spreading ideas quickly.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,557
    Nigelb said:

    Trump: Putin actually said to me, ‘If you don’t mind, friend, I hate to see you as my enemy.’ He said it very strongly. I had a very good relationship with Putin. I had a very good relationship with President Xi. A very good relationship with Kim Jong Un
    https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1930377901683122513

    He's sounding increasingly down about life. Makes you want to reach out and give him a little cuddle.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,071

    Eabhal said:

    AnneJGP said:

    pm215 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Fishing said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    First?

    Rants against the modern world. My MIL died in January. SSE are now threatening to cut her off.
    They have sent a letter saying "please get in touch if you need help"
    No phone number.
    Go on their website and they say that the customer number on their letter is too short.
    Chat has an option of speak to an advisor. When you click on it you can go back or close. No other options.
    Advising re bereavement is an option but nothing happens.

    We are changing our account.

    This is an egregious instance of a characteristic and strange phenomenon.

    We were all used in the olden days of the contemptuous indifference of monopolies like gas board, telephones etc; one of the reasons for the support there was for Thatcher's revolution, now 40 years old.

    One of its central points was that good service drives out bad, and in so many fields this works. Food retailers are keen to be open, accessible, and not poison you.

    Accessing big outfits can be so difficult - no email address, phones not answered, websites don't work or respond etc - while at the same time they swamp you with peremptoryy demands.

    I wonder why the invisible hand is not working better.
    Consumers want good service, but they also want cheap energy or whatever. People rarely need to access customer helplines, but they pay for energy all the time, and when they are choosing suppliers are far more likely to make a decision on the basis of price, rather than customer experience, especially if they've had no experience of the provider's dire call centres.

    Of course all providers in the energy supply market face the same incentives, unless one differentiates itself by going for the higher quality service market at higher prices. But I'm not sure that's a viable strategy.
    A further puzzle then. No-one contacts a utility etc unless they have to. Is it not more cost effective for the companies to provide rapid, skilled effective service for those who do rather than have every transaction lengthened by uselessness? Ditto banks. We don't spend all day making nuisance calls to gas providers and banks for fun.
    I have a suspicion that in fact most customer service calls are the trivial kind that could have been dealt with by the customer on the website and where a level 1 call centre employee following a script *is* the rapid effective service. If customer service call centres were only getting calls for the oddball corner cases they wouldn't need to be as big as they are.
    I've just accessed my gas/elec account, where there's a helpful CS notice saying that Variable prices are going down from July. Find out how it impacts you. Prices going down? Great. But click through to the find out page and, lo & behold, it's the limiting price cap that's going down, so the customer will be paying more!
    I'm due to renew shortly and find the same. I've been recommended to Octopus but the don't seem to have my home on their postcode list.
    Take great care if there is an issue with the address. Even a big fine from the Ombudsman won't stop them repeatedly sending the bailiffs round.
    That's my concern. There's one in their list that it might be, but I'm not taking any chances. I've asked them ...... I'm not guessing ...... to try and identify me, but if they can't that's it.
    I know someone who had trouble with utility companies.
    They lived in "flat F" or "flat 2/2" (i.e. 2nd flat on the 2nd floor), and companies never matched them correctly.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,570
    Why police released the ethnicity of Liverpool parade crash suspect

    https://theconversation.com/why-police-released-the-ethnicity-of-liverpool-parade-crash-suspect-255462
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,920
    edited June 5

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    The London local elections next year will be informative as to the state of opinion in the capital and may not be positive for either Labour or the Conservatives but that's for a different thread.

    The Find Out Now London polling from a month ago had, for a Mayoral election with unnamed candidates, Labour on 33%, Reform and the Conservatives tied on 20%, the Greens on 13% and the LDs on 10%. In 2024, despite all the post-election Twitter-driven nonsense, Khan easily beat Hall by eleven points.

    That said, I'd put Hall's result up there with Jeremy Hunt holding his seat at the GE as the best Conservative electoral performances of 2024. She got 33%, a weeks later the Party got 21% while, for all the talk about how disliked he was, Labour at the GE polled about the same as Khan.

    What will Khan do? I've long stated in 2020, when he decided to run for another term, he made an enormous personal miscalculation. He believed at that point Labour were doomed to be in opposition for at least another term. There was no point him going into the Commons as an opposition backbench MP at an election in 2023 or 2024 while he could remain London Mayor with all the publicity that engenders.

    As with most of us, Khan did not foresee the implosion of the Conservatives and the rise of Starmer - Khan COULD now be a prominent Labour MP (perhaps even in the Cabinet) but instead he's just the Mayor of London.

    Will he decide to jump to the Commons next time? Time isn't on his side - he'll be 58 by the time of the next election but if he had any thought he would lose a London Mayoral election, I could see him seeking out one of the "safe" London seats (East Ham perhaps?).

    A different Labour candidate would probably win but who? I think a "celebrity" is unlikely - I sometimes wonder if Newham's Mayor, Roksana Fiaz, has ambitions beyond her Borough but we'll see. It's not a market anyone should play until we know much more about Khan's intentions.

    The Reform and Conservative choices will also be interesting - Reform will do well in some parts of London next year but not in others but probably not in enough parts to win the Mayoralty. The Conservatives are shattered and if they lose further ground next year, who would want the candidacy? Cleverly might see himself as a Party leader but a leader of what? The Greens, LDs and Corbyn will nibble round the edges but in the end Labour's support is deep enough and broad enough to win a fragmented race - against a single non-Labour candidate it would be different.

    I think most who are Mayors prefer it to a cabinet position. You are a public figure, and you get to make your community better.

    Listen to Andy Burnham's introduction before Rachel Reeves spoke at the launch of her Mayoral settlements in the bus factory this week. He's glowing like a Ready Brek Central Heating for Kids advert.

    All the money for the East Midlands (Notts/Derbys) is going to the extreme South - the two cities. Boo !)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufLONX4i42M
    Andy Burnham is a very impressive mayor
    One number he quoted in his speech was economic 3.1% growth p/a from 2015 to 2025 in GM. I'm not sure of the provenance of the figure.

    I just want a Bee Network.
    He completely outshone Reeves, though that is not a high bar
    I think her speech was too technocratic for an audience of bus manufacturing workers; the audience standing behind her looked tranquilised. But why can't at least one of these people do the Rabbit Ears behind the politician's head?

    I'm still of the view that we can't call the outcome yet for the Starmer Govt, because it will be at least another 15-18 months before we can possibly see results of policy changes so far.

    They need clearly to deliver on Health, Wealth, Growth, Housing, Financial Stability and a couple of others.

    I think they are doing long-term policy with a care we have not seen for decades, and eg the Defence Review seems to have been of a quality we have again not seen for a long, long time. But everyone is correctly asking "Where's the CASH ?"

    The Cons are still nowhere, and Farage is a man walking around wearing a barrel, carrying a sign saying "I'm a fish; shoot me !".

    Apart from the Govt's very weak comms, I'm concerned that they may not make sufficient use of the 18-24 months they have to implement significant reforms.

    On the London Mayor, I expect that Sadiq will stand again.
    I agree entirely

    Reeves speech yesterday shows just how out of touch she is with ordinary voters, and that was demonstrated by the worker's behind her reaction which seems to be all over the media

    At least Davey and Johnson gave spectators at their speeches something to smile at.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,255
    Nigelb said:

    Trump: Putin actually said to me, ‘If you don’t mind, friend, I hate to see you as my enemy.’ He said it very strongly. I had a very good relationship with Putin. I had a very good relationship with President Xi. A very good relationship with Kim Jong Un
    https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1930377901683122513

    He'd like Zelenskyy more if he were a corrupt dictator. That's the type of person the President of America admires.
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