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Cakeism is alive and well – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,506
edited June 3 in General
Cakeism is alive and well – politicalbetting.com

With the government releasing its strategic defence review, 49% of Britons say that defence spending should increaseHowever, only 29% of Britons say they would support raising taxes to pay for increased defence spending, with the same number saying so of public spending cuts

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,986
    edited June 3
    Just read it.
    Possibly it will improve things slightly.

    But taxes will have to go up.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,751
    As long as the cake is not on the menu at a Toby Carvery then it’s fine here.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,986
    They seem to have committed to FCAS, which is sensible.
    But costly.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,631
    edited June 3
    Fifth Column. Thank-you for the header.

    I have feeling this is going to be an off topic morning (if I have anything to do with it).
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Useless fact: I quite like thinking of unlikely sentences and seeing if anyone's ever put them on the internet before. The one I just thought of was "mixed race fascism". It turns out it is on there, but just once, in a reddit conversation. (Didn't spend too long on the thread itself in case it was a bit weird, lol).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Googlewhack
    Don't tell me it's not an original idea?!
    I like the Shrodinger's Cat style provisional nature of Googlewhacks. Shrodingers Cat no longer exists once you get to look at it, and prove it does exist. A Googlewhack no longer exists once anyone mentions it online.

    I'm interested in the concept of an Andywhack, which is the last person in the world to find out about something that everyone else already knows about already :smile: .

    I probably qualify as an Andywhack in many areas of popular music ... "Have you ever listened to (classic 1970s or 80s or 90s pop song)?". Probably not.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,571
    Reform UK voters very keen on more defence spending, but least willing to pay more in tax. They want public services cut. Have they all bought into a DOGE-y narrative?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,246
    Taz said:

    As long as the cake is not on the menu at a Toby Carvery then it’s fine here.

    I am more a Wetherspoons man.

    Well I once ate at a Wetherspoons near Durham railway station.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,986

    Thames Water preferred bidder KKR pulls out of rescue deal

    Future of troubled supplier in doubt as US private equity group says it cannot proceed with acquiring £4bn stake


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/03/thames-water-kkr-pulls-out-rescue-deal

    There better not be a bailout.

    Take the effing thing into public ownership, and drive the hardest possible bargain with debt holders by threatening receivership.

    It would provide a salutary lesson for the rest of the industry - and might even end up bring a profitable deal for government.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,899
    Taz said:

    As long as the cake is not on the menu at a Toby Carvery then it’s fine here.

    If the cake is at Toby Carvery, it will be bought in. Might be perfectly good.

    Sometime you find quality in surprising places. Such as coffee in McDonalds.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,601

    Thames Water preferred bidder KKR pulls out of rescue deal

    Future of troubled supplier in doubt as US private equity group says it cannot proceed with acquiring £4bn stake


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/03/thames-water-kkr-pulls-out-rescue-deal

    There better not be a bailout.

    There cannot be a bailout

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,246

    Reform UK voters very keen on more defence spending, but least willing to pay more in tax. They want public services cut. Have they all bought into a DOGE-y narrative?

    Yup, my friend constantly rolls his eyes at his parents and they currently believe their council spends £30 billion a year on DEI, climate change, and foreign aid.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,506
    FPT - a Toby carvery is fine, particularly if you have kids and a family.

    I like to cook a roast too but it's at least 2 hours of graft in the kitchen, lots of elements and timing involved, with all the consequential washing-up - so I can understand if people don't always fancy it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,986

    One reason our governments keep letting people down and disappointing them is because our electorate is deluded.

    Not the electorate's fault.
    Politicians of every party - including new kids in the block Reform - have been making unfundable promises since the dawn of time.

    They've got away with borrowing and selling assets for several decades, and are now facing crunch time.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,631

    Thames Water preferred bidder KKR pulls out of rescue deal

    Future of troubled supplier in doubt as US private equity group says it cannot proceed with acquiring £4bn stake


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/03/thames-water-kkr-pulls-out-rescue-deal

    There better not be a bailout.

    How does administation work?

    Can the Govt put administrators in just because money is owed, without too much process - or does it need some sort of legal shenanigans first?
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,751

    Taz said:

    As long as the cake is not on the menu at a Toby Carvery then it’s fine here.

    I am more a Wetherspoons man.

    Well I once ate at a Wetherspoons near Durham railway station.
    Can’t beat a Spoons.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,161

    Thames Water preferred bidder KKR pulls out of rescue deal

    Future of troubled supplier in doubt as US private equity group says it cannot proceed with acquiring £4bn stake


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/03/thames-water-kkr-pulls-out-rescue-deal

    There better not be a bailout.

    There cannot be a bailout

    So the entire South East of England goes without water?

    Starmer caused the problem he will have to resolve the problem.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,128

    Thames Water preferred bidder KKR pulls out of rescue deal

    Future of troubled supplier in doubt as US private equity group says it cannot proceed with acquiring £4bn stake


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/03/thames-water-kkr-pulls-out-rescue-deal

    There better not be a bailout.

    There cannot be a bailout

    It's inevitable that there'll be a bail out, it's just whether it's now or after another few PE companies have rinsed the customers and UK taxpayer.
    The lenders offering "rescue plans" are doing so because there'll eventually be a bail out
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,506
    Nigelb said:

    One reason our governments keep letting people down and disappointing them is because our electorate is deluded.

    Not the electorate's fault.
    Politicians of every party - including new kids in the block Reform - have been making unfundable promises since the dawn of time.

    They've got away with borrowing and selling assets for several decades, and are now facing crunch time.
    And, people keep voting for them - whereas those who tell hard truths (admittedly far fewer) don't get much support.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,631
    edited June 3
    Nigelb said:

    One reason our governments keep letting people down and disappointing them is because our electorate is deluded.

    Not the electorate's fault.
    Politicians of every party - including new kids in the block Reform - have been making unfundable promises since the dawn of time.

    They've got away with borrowing and selling assets for several decades, and are now facing crunch time.
    Partly the electorate's fault, imo. If the customer buys snake-oil, it is not purely the fault of the salesman. I am responsible for choosing for whom I vote.

    If A serves up BS, who is responsible for the stomach ache when B swallows it ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,506

    Reform UK voters very keen on more defence spending, but least willing to pay more in tax. They want public services cut. Have they all bought into a DOGE-y narrative?

    They want "other" public services cut.

    If you touched their pensions or cash benefits they'd scream blue murder.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,751

    One reason our governments keep letting people down and disappointing them is because our electorate is deluded.

    Because all,political parties tell people what they want to hear, not what they need to hear, to get votes.

    The Lib Dem’s are the worst for it but they all do it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,751
    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    One reason our governments keep letting people down and disappointing them is because our electorate is deluded.

    Not the electorate's fault.
    Politicians of every party - including new kids in the block Reform - have been making unfundable promises since the dawn of time.

    They've got away with borrowing and selling assets for several decades, and are now facing crunch time.
    Partly the electorate's fault, imo. If the customer buys snake-oil, it is not purely the fault of the salesman. I am responsible for choosing for whom I vote.
    Political party says to you if you vote for us we will do this, this, this and this, and you think that’s fine I cannot see how it is the voters fault.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,899

    Thames Water preferred bidder KKR pulls out of rescue deal

    Future of troubled supplier in doubt as US private equity group says it cannot proceed with acquiring £4bn stake


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/03/thames-water-kkr-pulls-out-rescue-deal

    There better not be a bailout.

    There cannot be a bailout

    Yes, there can.

    {Must finish article of Blobism}

    Right now, ministers are receiving a tidal wave of paper on how bad an idea letting Thames Water go bankrupt is. Domestic and international repercussions. Etc etc.

    “The sensible, but tough decision, minister, is to bale them out.”
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,128

    Thames Water preferred bidder KKR pulls out of rescue deal

    Future of troubled supplier in doubt as US private equity group says it cannot proceed with acquiring £4bn stake


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/03/thames-water-kkr-pulls-out-rescue-deal

    There better not be a bailout.

    There cannot be a bailout

    So the entire South East of England goes without water?

    Starmer caused the problem he will have to resolve the problem.
    How is Thames Water down to Starmer? It's been run on a "sweat the assets, bare minimum compliance to standards" basis since privatisation.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,246
    Nigelb said:

    Thames Water preferred bidder KKR pulls out of rescue deal

    Future of troubled supplier in doubt as US private equity group says it cannot proceed with acquiring £4bn stake


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/03/thames-water-kkr-pulls-out-rescue-deal

    There better not be a bailout.

    Take the effing thing into public ownership, and drive the hardest possible bargain with debt holders by threatening receivership.

    It would provide a salutary lesson for the rest of the industry - and might even end up bring a profitable deal for government.
    I am an unabashed free marketeer but Thames Water turns me into a raging agitprop Marxist.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,506
    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    One reason our governments keep letting people down and disappointing them is because our electorate is deluded.

    Not the electorate's fault.
    Politicians of every party - including new kids in the block Reform - have been making unfundable promises since the dawn of time.

    They've got away with borrowing and selling assets for several decades, and are now facing crunch time.
    Partly the electorate's fault, imo. If the customer buys snake-oil, it is not purely the fault of the salesman. I am responsible for choosing for whom I vote.
    Political party says to you if you vote for us we will do this, this, this and this, and you think that’s fine I cannot see how it is the voters fault.
    We have to take responsibility for the questions we ask of politicians, the answers we get and the decisions we make - same as making any other choice.

    They are there to represent us.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,350

    Reform UK voters very keen on more defence spending, but least willing to pay more in tax. They want public services cut. Have they all bought into a DOGE-y narrative?

    They want "other" public services cut.

    If you touched their pensions or cash benefits they'd scream blue murder.
    The basic problem with local government is that very few people know what it is. "It's the council" - sure, but what does it do and how is it funded?

    We elect councillors who increasingly proffer themselves for election under sense of obligation / guilt to their party of choice and end up stuck with little experience or understanding facing a completely impossible budget making horrendous cuts because the alternatives are even worse.

    Of course there are many voters who think voting Reform and sending in DOGE will save a packet because all councils are wasting our money on the other people and their woke nonsense, aren't they?

    Hence Reform pledging to scrap LTNs at their new councils only to find there are none, and to scrap DEI officers only to find there aren't any. What they will find is nightmare budget choices which will get worse every year regardless of what gets cut this year.

    There is a shitton of waste, but its in the structure not the budget.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,601

    Thames Water preferred bidder KKR pulls out of rescue deal

    Future of troubled supplier in doubt as US private equity group says it cannot proceed with acquiring £4bn stake


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/03/thames-water-kkr-pulls-out-rescue-deal

    There better not be a bailout.

    There cannot be a bailout

    So the entire South East of England goes without water?

    Starmer caused the problem he will have to resolve the problem.
    Let it go bust. Buy it for a pound. Rinse the shareholders. Fire the directors for gross misconduct, without compensation.

    This is how capitalism is supposed to work. Profit is the reward for risk.
    Absolutely
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,751

    Thames Water preferred bidder KKR pulls out of rescue deal

    Future of troubled supplier in doubt as US private equity group says it cannot proceed with acquiring £4bn stake


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/03/thames-water-kkr-pulls-out-rescue-deal

    There better not be a bailout.

    There cannot be a bailout

    So the entire South East of England goes without water?

    Starmer caused the problem he will have to resolve the problem.
    Let it go bust. Buy it for a pound. Rinse the shareholders. Fire the directors for gross misconduct, without compensation.

    This is how capitalism is supposed to work. Profit is the reward for risk.
    Hear hear.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,883
    Interesting polling.

    Conservative voters appear to be the most pragmatic about it, with high scores for both cuts to spending and increases in tax. They might appreciate that a very large chunk of public spending goes on them given their age profile.

    Labour and Lib Dem voters are a bit deluded - they need to accept that they tend to occupy the highest incomes, so at least some of any tax rises need to come from them (though a fair chunk might come from wealth via increased council tax, for example, or from benefits).

    Reform voters are the biggest proponents of cake-ism, though there is a glimmer of justification in that given working-age benefits and spending have been relatively hammered and tax thresholds etc have been frozen. They are much younger than Conservatives, on average.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,694
    "I want this, but I want someone else to pay."

    I agree that politicians are partly to blame: but the media need to shoulder more of the blame. They are always looking for gotchas or simple soundbites. Perhaps that's because that is what the public's attention span can handle; or perhaps it is simply because it is easier for the media.

    It's particularly galling as many politicians and parties agree on the problems; and their proposed solutions are not miles apart, but they need to appear different so they can attack their opponents' ideas. Also, because many of the simple lies told by populists fall apart under even moderate scrutiny. But the media does not give them that scrutiny, preferring the soundbites.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,135
    Taz said:

    Thames Water preferred bidder KKR pulls out of rescue deal

    Future of troubled supplier in doubt as US private equity group says it cannot proceed with acquiring £4bn stake


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/03/thames-water-kkr-pulls-out-rescue-deal

    There better not be a bailout.

    There cannot be a bailout

    So the entire South East of England goes without water?

    Starmer caused the problem he will have to resolve the problem.
    Let it go bust. Buy it for a pound. Rinse the shareholders. Fire the directors for gross misconduct, without compensation.

    This is how capitalism is supposed to work. Profit is the reward for risk.
    Hear hear.
    Yep.

    Enough already. Get this done.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,601

    Thames Water preferred bidder KKR pulls out of rescue deal

    Future of troubled supplier in doubt as US private equity group says it cannot proceed with acquiring £4bn stake


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/03/thames-water-kkr-pulls-out-rescue-deal

    There better not be a bailout.

    There cannot be a bailout

    So the entire South East of England goes without water?

    Starmer caused the problem he will have to resolve the problem.
    Starmer did not cause the problem but it is his problem

    He is PM
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,041

    Reform UK voters very keen on more defence spending, but least willing to pay more in tax. They want public services cut. Have they all bought into a DOGE-y narrative?

    They want "other" public services cut.

    If you touched their pensions or cash benefits they'd scream blue murder.
    The basic problem with local government is that very few people know what it is. "It's the council" - sure, but what does it do and how is it funded?

    We elect councillors who increasingly proffer themselves for election under sense of obligation / guilt to their party of choice and end up stuck with little experience or understanding facing a completely impossible budget making horrendous cuts because the alternatives are even worse.

    Of course there are many voters who think voting Reform and sending in DOGE will save a packet because all councils are wasting our money on the other people and their woke nonsense, aren't they?

    Hence Reform pledging to scrap LTNs at their new councils only to find there are none, and to scrap DEI officers only to find there aren't any. What they will find is nightmare budget choices which will get worse every year regardless of what gets cut this year.

    There is a shitton of waste, but its in the structure not the budget.
    Interesting comparison for right wing curious voters is how the new Reform majority councils perform versus Reform minority led and then compare versus Northumberland and Bucks which remain Tory minority led.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,567
    Has a dream that Lord Falconer fell in love with a much younger woman. Not sure if he resigned
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,506

    Reform UK voters very keen on more defence spending, but least willing to pay more in tax. They want public services cut. Have they all bought into a DOGE-y narrative?

    They want "other" public services cut.

    If you touched their pensions or cash benefits they'd scream blue murder.
    The basic problem with local government is that very few people know what it is. "It's the council" - sure, but what does it do and how is it funded?

    We elect councillors who increasingly proffer themselves for election under sense of obligation / guilt to their party of choice and end up stuck with little experience or understanding facing a completely impossible budget making horrendous cuts because the alternatives are even worse.

    Of course there are many voters who think voting Reform and sending in DOGE will save a packet because all councils are wasting our money on the other people and their woke nonsense, aren't they?

    Hence Reform pledging to scrap LTNs at their new councils only to find there are none, and to scrap DEI officers only to find there aren't any. What they will find is nightmare budget choices which will get worse every year regardless of what gets cut this year.

    There is a shitton of waste, but its in the structure not the budget.
    Yes, there's a lot of truth in that.

    Fundamentally, we can't afford to give the level of cash benefits out we are doing at the moment to the non-working, though.

    Those planning to retire in future will need to work for longer, and make more provision for their retirement, and those not working will need to work.

    Incapacity and disability benefit at £100 billion a year is totally unsustainable.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,602
    Nigelb said:

    One reason our governments keep letting people down and disappointing them is because our electorate is deluded.

    Not the electorate's fault.
    Politicians of every party - including new kids in the block Reform - have been making unfundable promises since the dawn of time.

    They've got away with borrowing and selling assets for several decades, and are now facing crunch time.
    That's true, but I think you infantilise the electorate by minimising their agency and denying their responsibility.

    At some point, adults are responsible for making intelligent decisions, which is the theory behind democracy after all. It is unrealistic to expect the Great Unwashed to make correct decisions on technical economic issues. But knowing that you can't forever spend more than you earn should is not difficult or technical - the electorate just doesn't want to hear it.

    If they don't understand these matters, they should at least defer to those who do, while holding them accountable for the results. And if the electorate keep electing those who continually avoid making choices that are hard in the short term but pay off in the long term, they have only themselves to blame.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,694

    Thames Water preferred bidder KKR pulls out of rescue deal

    Future of troubled supplier in doubt as US private equity group says it cannot proceed with acquiring £4bn stake


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/03/thames-water-kkr-pulls-out-rescue-deal

    There better not be a bailout.

    There cannot be a bailout

    So the entire South East of England goes without water?

    Starmer caused the problem he will have to resolve the problem.
    When RBS et al went down, operations didn’t miss a beat. The ATMs kept running, even mortgages were being put through.

    The people running the company keep on working.

    What happens is a high finance drama. Shareholders wiped out. Bond holder get nuked as well.

    Relieved of debt, the ship rights it self. Like a sailing ship on it beam ends, when they cut the masts away.

    The important thing is that, when the government steps in, they guarantee the suppliers bills. Otherwise companies in the supply chain go bust.

    Lend money to Thames Water for this purpose, as the most senior form of debt. So when the previous debt is annihilated, the loan is protected.

    Without nearly all of its previous debt Thames Water will be very profitable. It will pay back the handful of millions to protect the suppliers, easily. If managed sensibly, the government will make a profit on the loan.
    I'd also add that if TQ does go bust, ban the owning company(/ies) / pension funds from having any significant ownership of UK companies, and the senior management from any management positions in the UK. Macquarie Group as well for their time in charge.

    (Yes, I know this might well be illegal. But it shouldn't be.)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,506
    GBR has started as well as expected.

    Peak 7.14am train cancelled this morning (no reason given) and follow-up 7.44am train has 8 coaches, rather than 12, so is absurdly overcrowded and people can't get on.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,002
    A bit of a misleading oversimplification by YouGov. It's tax increases for "people like you" that people don't support.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,506
    On topic, Reform voters look pretty cakey to me.

    Angry that things aren't the way they used to be and that they're not better off than they are.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,224

    Thames Water preferred bidder KKR pulls out of rescue deal

    Future of troubled supplier in doubt as US private equity group says it cannot proceed with acquiring £4bn stake


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/03/thames-water-kkr-pulls-out-rescue-deal

    There better not be a bailout.

    There cannot be a bailout

    So the entire South East of England goes without water?

    Starmer caused the problem he will have to resolve the problem.
    When RBS et al went down, operations didn’t miss a beat. The ATMs kept running, even mortgages were being put through.

    The people running the company keep on working.

    What happens is a high finance drama. Shareholders wiped out. Bond holder get nuked as well.

    Relieved of debt, the ship rights it self. Like a sailing ship on it beam ends, when they cut the masts away.

    The important thing is that, when the government steps in, they guarantee the suppliers bills. Otherwise companies in the supply chain go bust.

    Lend money to Thames Water for this purpose, as the most senior form of debt. So when the previous debt is annihilated, the loan is protected.

    Without nearly all of its previous debt Thames Water will be very profitable. It will pay back the handful of millions to protect the suppliers, easily. If managed sensibly, the government will make a profit on the loan.
    I'd also add that if TQ does go bust, ban the owning company(/ies) / pension funds from having any significant ownership of UK companies, and the senior management from any management positions in the UK. Macquarie Group as well for their time in charge.

    (Yes, I know this might well be illegal. But it shouldn't be.)
    You don't need to ban them - just a quiet word saying remember how much you (or your mates) lost on Thames Water. Do you really think its a good idea letting them get involved..
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,631
    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    One reason our governments keep letting people down and disappointing them is because our electorate is deluded.

    Not the electorate's fault.
    Politicians of every party - including new kids in the block Reform - have been making unfundable promises since the dawn of time.

    They've got away with borrowing and selling assets for several decades, and are now facing crunch time.
    Partly the electorate's fault, imo. If the customer buys snake-oil, it is not purely the fault of the salesman. I am responsible for choosing for whom I vote.
    Political party says to you if you vote for us we will do this, this, this and this, and you think that’s fine I cannot see how it is the voters fault.
    IMO it's the voters' job to look the gift horse in the mouth.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,224

    On topic, Reform voters look pretty cakey to me.

    Angry that things aren't the way they used to be and that they're not better off than they are.

    A lot of Reform voters are only vote on some occasions voters (Brexit, Bozo in 2019). So I think it's going to be hard to say whether it's cakeism or reality until a lot closer to the election.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,667

    GBR has started as well as expected.

    Peak 7.14am train cancelled this morning (no reason given) and follow-up 7.44am train has 8 coaches, rather than 12, so is absurdly overcrowded and people can't get on.

    Why did you think it would suddenly be better? You travel on what used to be South West Trains and then became Southwestern Railway.

    You must remember the motto - "Expect the Unexpected".
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,506
    SWR (now need GBR) need to read the room..

    Heavily overcrowded train and everyone pissed off. Playing two automatic announcements:

    (1) "Abuse against our staff will not be tolerated"
    (2) "You must have a ticket to travel on one of our trains or you will pay a penalty fare"

    Revolutions have started for less. The passenger experience is entirely shit.

    No explanation for the cancellation and an entirely insincere or pre-recorded "apology" if you're lucky. Which we are not.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,694
    Fishing said:

    Nigelb said:

    One reason our governments keep letting people down and disappointing them is because our electorate is deluded.

    Not the electorate's fault.
    Politicians of every party - including new kids in the block Reform - have been making unfundable promises since the dawn of time.

    They've got away with borrowing and selling assets for several decades, and are now facing crunch time.
    That's true, but I think you infantilise the electorate by minimising their agency and denying their responsibility.

    At some point, adults are responsible for making intelligent decisions, which is the theory behind democracy after all. It is unrealistic to expect the Great Unwashed to make correct decisions on technical economic issues. But knowing that you can't forever spend more than you earn should is not difficult or technical - the electorate just doesn't want to hear it.

    If they don't understand these matters, they should at least defer to those who do, while holding them accountable for the results. And if the electorate keep electing those who continually avoid making choices that are hard in the short term but pay off in the long term, they have only themselves to blame.
    "At some point, adults are responsible for making intelligent decisions"

    Yes, but...

    People can only make decisions based on information they have. And the media are terrible at presenting the in-depth information needed to make intelligent/rational decisions. Campaign groups (for an against) also muddy the waters.

    And I include myself in that. I would like to think I am fairly knowledgeable in some areas; in others, I have only the vaguest of knowledge. *Everyone* is in that state. Some know more than others, particularly in narrow areas of expertise. No-one can have deep knowledge and understanding of everything to a depth where they can make intelligent decisions.

    Decisions are also not made in isolation, and an 'intelligent' decision in one area might have deeply negative impacts in another area.

    In addition, people may be making intelligent decisions for themselves, knowing that those decisions may be bad for the country if everyone made the same decisions. Is it intelligent to make yourself poorer, even if it may help the country? After all, you may well feel the money you have lost, when the advantage to the country from your loss is tiny, on an individual basis. And you may well feel that loss immediately, whilst the advantages will only be felt in a decade or more.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,883
    There is more polling on "It's war!" here: https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1929794051722600631

    Interesting that people with degrees are up for a fight.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,350

    GBR has started as well as expected.

    Peak 7.14am train cancelled this morning (no reason given) and follow-up 7.44am train has 8 coaches, rather than 12, so is absurdly overcrowded and people can't get on.

    Its not GBR. Its the same SWR as it was last week. Same managers, same resources, same maths, same decision makers (the DfT)
  • eekeek Posts: 30,224
    stodge said:

    GBR has started as well as expected.

    Peak 7.14am train cancelled this morning (no reason given) and follow-up 7.44am train has 8 coaches, rather than 12, so is absurdly overcrowded and people can't get on.

    Why did you think it would suddenly be better? You travel on what used to be South West Trains and then became Southwestern Railway.

    You must remember the motto - "Expect the Unexpected".
    Surely peak trains being cancelled and the next one running short should be completely expected based on past form...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,986

    Thames Water preferred bidder KKR pulls out of rescue deal

    Future of troubled supplier in doubt as US private equity group says it cannot proceed with acquiring £4bn stake


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/03/thames-water-kkr-pulls-out-rescue-deal

    There better not be a bailout.

    There cannot be a bailout

    Yes, there can.

    {Must finish article of Blobism}

    Right now, ministers are receiving a tidal wave of paper on how bad an idea letting Thames Water go bankrupt is. Domestic and international repercussions. Etc etc.

    “The sensible, but tough decision, minister, is to bale them out.”
    The government review of the water industry specifically ruled out looking at public ownership as part of its remit.

    Sir Jon Cunliffe was on R4 this morning wibbling about "stronger regulation" and the need for "new legislation". Just long-grassery.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz70g4vgdnxo

    Cut the Gordian knot and make an example of Thames.

    It's going to cost the public a fortune to bail it out whatever happens; if we don't own it in return for that, then it's a message to the private sector that they can carry on treating us as fools.
  • GBR has started as well as expected.

    Peak 7.14am train cancelled this morning (no reason given) and follow-up 7.44am train has 8 coaches, rather than 12, so is absurdly overcrowded and people can't get on.

    Northern Rail, back in the hands of the state for some months now is as bad as ever. Until a Government and management decide to take on the unions, things won't improve.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,667
    Morning all :)

    Very much the end of times it would seem. For the second time in as many days, I find myself agreeing with a @BartholomewRoberts post.

    There's nothing wrong with Toby Carvery - yes, the snobs don't get it. It's not The Ivy and doesn't pretend to be but I've never had a duff meal in my local (Snaresbrook).

    Some may feel a Yorkshire Pudding for breakfast is an idea ahead of its time and I have some sympathy with that view and when you go "large" you never fill your plate with extraneous Yorkies. Indeed, I have a friend who took up learning physics to see how much they could pile on their plate and the best way of usuing gravity to their advantage.

    You can also quickly tell those who've played Tetris in their youth.

    Saturdays are the best day becasue they have roast lamb - a little bit of reconnaissance required to see when a new joint appears and then up you go.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,522

    "I want this, but I want someone else to pay."

    I agree that politicians are partly to blame: but the media need to shoulder more of the blame. They are always looking for gotchas or simple soundbites. Perhaps that's because that is what the public's attention span can handle; or perhaps it is simply because it is easier for the media.

    It's particularly galling as many politicians and parties agree on the problems; and their proposed solutions are not miles apart, but they need to appear different so they can attack their opponents' ideas. Also, because many of the simple lies told by populists fall apart under even moderate scrutiny. But the media does not give them that scrutiny, preferring the soundbites.

    Yes. Part of the problem is that all governments, and parliaments, since WWII have had an identical foundation, namely the post 1945 social democratic consensus. All variations have been ideological tinkering, even the Thatcher ones. The greatest differences have been in competence (think Truss) and the luck or bad luck at any particular moment (2007/8 banks; 2020 Covid etc).

    The interesting moment we are at is because the post WWII social democrat consensus is no longer affordable, and in certain ways has become a monster, but no ideological alternative is around. Farage and Reform discovered this in the last month. They too are social democrats. Ignore what they say, watch what they do, and what they put in the 2029 manifesto.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,539

    SWR (now need GBR) need to read the room..

    Heavily overcrowded train and everyone pissed off. Playing two automatic announcements:

    (1) "Abuse against our staff will not be tolerated"
    (2) "You must have a ticket to travel on one of our trains or you will pay a penalty fare"

    Revolutions have started for less. The passenger experience is entirely shit.

    No explanation for the cancellation and an entirely insincere or pre-recorded "apology" if you're lucky. Which we are not.

    Surely Rob Jenrick would approve wholeheartedly of that second announcement though. Perhaps GBR were inspired by his video.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,506

    GBR has started as well as expected.

    Peak 7.14am train cancelled this morning (no reason given) and follow-up 7.44am train has 8 coaches, rather than 12, so is absurdly overcrowded and people can't get on.

    Its not GBR. Its the same SWR as it was last week. Same managers, same resources, same maths, same decision makers (the DfT)
    I'm afraid it is now GBR.

    The fact everyone might have been TUPEd across doesn't change that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,986
    Fishing said:

    Nigelb said:

    One reason our governments keep letting people down and disappointing them is because our electorate is deluded.

    Not the electorate's fault.
    Politicians of every party - including new kids in the block Reform - have been making unfundable promises since the dawn of time.

    They've got away with borrowing and selling assets for several decades, and are now facing crunch time.
    That's true, but I think you infantilise the electorate by minimising their agency and denying their responsibility.

    At some point, adults are responsible for making intelligent decisions, which is the theory behind democracy after all. It is unrealistic to expect the Great Unwashed to make correct decisions on technical economic issues. But knowing that you can't forever spend more than you earn should is not difficult or technical - the electorate just doesn't want to hear it.

    If they don't understand these matters, they should at least defer to those who do, while holding them accountable for the results. And if the electorate keep electing those who continually avoid making choices that are hard in the short term but pay off in the long term, they have only themselves to blame.
    Successive governments, on both right and left - and including the "realist" Margaret Thatcher - have protected them from reality by borrowing and selling assets.
    You can't really blame the electorate for falling for it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,666

    GBR has started as well as expected.

    Peak 7.14am train cancelled this morning (no reason given) and follow-up 7.44am train has 8 coaches, rather than 12, so is absurdly overcrowded and people can't get on.

    Its not GBR. Its the same SWR as it was last week. Same managers, same resources, same maths, same decision makers (the DfT)
    And they won't get to call themselves GBR if they don't deliver!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,506
    Fishing said:

    Nigelb said:

    One reason our governments keep letting people down and disappointing them is because our electorate is deluded.

    Not the electorate's fault.
    Politicians of every party - including new kids in the block Reform - have been making unfundable promises since the dawn of time.

    They've got away with borrowing and selling assets for several decades, and are now facing crunch time.
    That's true, but I think you infantilise the electorate by minimising their agency and denying their responsibility.

    At some point, adults are responsible for making intelligent decisions, which is the theory behind democracy after all. It is unrealistic to expect the Great Unwashed to make correct decisions on technical economic issues. But knowing that you can't forever spend more than you earn should is not difficult or technical - the electorate just doesn't want to hear it.

    If they don't understand these matters, they should at least defer to those who do, while holding them accountable for the results. And if the electorate keep electing those who continually avoid making choices that are hard in the short term but pay off in the long term, they have only themselves to blame.
    We are due to borrow almost £150bn this year.

    That's almost as bad as it was in the 2010-2015 parliament, when interest rates were far far lower and there was a plan to eliminate the deficit.

    Our current behaviour is of a country on the path to bankruptcy.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,846
    Fishing said:

    Nigelb said:

    One reason our governments keep letting people down and disappointing them is because our electorate is deluded.

    Not the electorate's fault.
    Politicians of every party - including new kids in the block Reform - have been making unfundable promises since the dawn of time.

    They've got away with borrowing and selling assets for several decades, and are now facing crunch time.
    That's true, but I think you infantilise the electorate by minimising their agency and denying their responsibility.

    At some point, adults are responsible for making intelligent decisions, which is the theory behind democracy after all. It is unrealistic to expect the Great Unwashed to make correct decisions on technical economic issues. But knowing that you can't forever spend more than you earn should is not difficult or technical - the electorate just doesn't want to hear it.

    If they don't understand these matters, they should at least defer to those who do, while holding them accountable for the results. And if the electorate keep electing those who continually avoid making choices that are hard in the short term but pay off in the long term, they have only themselves to blame.
    Yes and no.

    The thing about long-term choices is that, by the time the foolishness of bad choices becomes clear, the people who made those choices have largely moved on. Choir Invisible and all that.

    Example one. The pay-as-you-goness of many pensions is now clearly not a good idea. It only took a century or so for that to become clear.

    Example two. The fiscal model of the last four decades has left us in a bit of a pickle. But they key bits of it (austerity by taking a maintenance holiday, Brownian game-playing, selling off the family silver) were all very popular at the time. I reckon that a fair bit of Farage's appeal is his promise to somehow keep that party going.

    That gap between cause and effect is a real bugger, and I don't know what we do about it.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,482

    SWR (now need GBR) need to read the room..

    Heavily overcrowded train and everyone pissed off. Playing two automatic announcements:

    (1) "Abuse against our staff will not be tolerated"
    (2) "You must have a ticket to travel on one of our trains or you will pay a penalty fare"

    Revolutions have started for less. The passenger experience is entirely shit.

    No explanation for the cancellation and an entirely insincere or pre-recorded "apology" if you're lucky. Which we are not.

    The drivers are usually pretty chatty on the intercom on LNER when there’s a problem
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,522

    On topic, Reform voters look pretty cakey to me.

    Angry that things aren't the way they used to be and that they're not better off than they are.

    The quickest glance at the polling figures in the cakeism survey show with great precision how problematic Reform would find governing given the wishes of those who will vote for them. Their voters are high spend, low tax nationalist social democrats.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,986

    Thames Water preferred bidder KKR pulls out of rescue deal

    Future of troubled supplier in doubt as US private equity group says it cannot proceed with acquiring £4bn stake


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/03/thames-water-kkr-pulls-out-rescue-deal

    There better not be a bailout.

    There cannot be a bailout

    So the entire South East of England goes without water?

    Starmer caused the problem he will have to resolve the problem.
    It won't.
    They've had contingency plans in place for some time to deal with the financial collapse of the company.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,539
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Very much the end of times it would seem. For the second time in as many days, I find myself agreeing with a @BartholomewRoberts post.

    There's nothing wrong with Toby Carvery - yes, the snobs don't get it. It's not The Ivy and doesn't pretend to be but I've never had a duff meal in my local (Snaresbrook).

    Some may feel a Yorkshire Pudding for breakfast is an idea ahead of its time and I have some sympathy with that view and when you go "large" you never fill your plate with extraneous Yorkies. Indeed, I have a friend who took up learning physics to see how much they could pile on their plate and the best way of usuing gravity to their advantage.

    You can also quickly tell those who've played Tetris in their youth.

    Saturdays are the best day becasue they have roast lamb - a little bit of reconnaissance required to see when a new joint appears and then up you go.

    Yorkshire pudding for breakfast is ok. It’s basically oven baked pancake.

    The principal critic of Toby on the previous thread was in fact Northern man of the people @Cookie, with sympathetic noises from hard right Toby-refusenik @Leon, but PB folklore will retell this as a snobbish assailing of classic British fare by the centrist dads and Lib Dems.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,224

    GBR has started as well as expected.

    Peak 7.14am train cancelled this morning (no reason given) and follow-up 7.44am train has 8 coaches, rather than 12, so is absurdly overcrowded and people can't get on.

    Northern Rail, back in the hands of the state for some months now is as bad as ever. Until a Government and management decide to take on the unions, things won't improve.
    You see you blame the unions - where I suspect management and a lack of recruitment between 2018 and 2023 are the problem. And there is a lot of evidence to back up my side of the argument.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,482
    Have I missed that PB doesn’t like Toby? Say it aint so
  • eekeek Posts: 30,224
    edited June 3

    SWR (now need GBR) need to read the room..

    Heavily overcrowded train and everyone pissed off. Playing two automatic announcements:

    (1) "Abuse against our staff will not be tolerated"
    (2) "You must have a ticket to travel on one of our trains or you will pay a penalty fare"

    Revolutions have started for less. The passenger experience is entirely shit.

    No explanation for the cancellation and an entirely insincere or pre-recorded "apology" if you're lucky. Which we are not.

    The drivers are usually pretty chatty on the intercom on LNER when there’s a problem
    often in too much detail remembering the time my train went over a deer outside Grantham..
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 897
    Eabhal said:

    Interesting polling.

    Conservative voters appear to be the most pragmatic about it, with high scores for both cuts to spending and increases in tax. They might appreciate that a very large chunk of public spending goes on them given their age profile.

    Labour and Lib Dem voters are a bit deluded - they need to accept that they tend to occupy the highest incomes, so at least some of any tax rises need to come from them (though a fair chunk might come from wealth via increased council tax, for example, or from benefits).

    Reform voters are the biggest proponents of cake-ism, though there is a glimmer of justification in that given working-age benefits and spending have been relatively hammered and tax thresholds etc have been frozen. They are much younger than Conservatives, on average.

    So the Government is redistributive and gives the money to their supporters. It's a simple enough concept for anyone to grasp.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,506
    TimS said:

    SWR (now need GBR) need to read the room..

    Heavily overcrowded train and everyone pissed off. Playing two automatic announcements:

    (1) "Abuse against our staff will not be tolerated"
    (2) "You must have a ticket to travel on one of our trains or you will pay a penalty fare"

    Revolutions have started for less. The passenger experience is entirely shit.

    No explanation for the cancellation and an entirely insincere or pre-recorded "apology" if you're lucky. Which we are not.

    Surely Rob Jenrick would approve wholeheartedly of that second announcement though. Perhaps GBR were inspired by his video.
    TimS said:

    SWR (now need GBR) need to read the room..

    Heavily overcrowded train and everyone pissed off. Playing two automatic announcements:

    (1) "Abuse against our staff will not be tolerated"
    (2) "You must have a ticket to travel on one of our trains or you will pay a penalty fare"

    Revolutions have started for less. The passenger experience is entirely shit.

    No explanation for the cancellation and an entirely insincere or pre-recorded "apology" if you're lucky. Which we are not.

    Surely Rob Jenrick would approve wholeheartedly of that second announcement though. Perhaps GBR were inspired by his video.
    Lol. Good one.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,667
    Back to the meat and four veg of politics :)

    No surprises in the polling in the thread header. We've known this for ages - it's much easier for politicians, especially those who want to get elected, to say what the public wants to hear and to promise them the earth rather than be honest with them about what's possible and what isn't.

    As a portion of overall expenditure, defence spending isn't large but if you are going to raise it, which is fine in and of itself, you need to explain how to cover the increase.

    We aren't dealing with 100 Warsaw Pact armoured divisions at peak operational stength two hours drive from the Rhine but the nature and reality of warfare has also changed so our thinking must change with it.

    As for the basic premise, until and unless politicians of all stripes start offering some honesty, we will get nowhere slowly absent a technological game changer which generates the kind of economic growth (4-5% per annum) which would cover all this largesse.

    The division (not armoured) remains, as it always has, between the tax and spending cutters on one side and the tax risers on the other though it's not really an either/or as much as a both/and.

    That's before we even get to the substantive of reducing the deficit and borrowing by somewhere in the region of £100 billion to get the public finances under some kind of control. When the debate starts with every spending cut and every tax rise being considered the end of civilisation, that illustrates the paucity of the thinking and the cowardice of the politicians.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,745

    Have I missed that PB doesn’t like Toby? Say it aint so

    I had a voucher and called in at Toby for breakfast after parkrun the other week. It wasn't very good, Wetherspoons are better (and cheaper). The novelty was being able to have Yorkshire pudding and gravy with breakfast
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,246
    eek said:

    SWR (now need GBR) need to read the room..

    Heavily overcrowded train and everyone pissed off. Playing two automatic announcements:

    (1) "Abuse against our staff will not be tolerated"
    (2) "You must have a ticket to travel on one of our trains or you will pay a penalty fare"

    Revolutions have started for less. The passenger experience is entirely shit.

    No explanation for the cancellation and an entirely insincere or pre-recorded "apology" if you're lucky. Which we are not.

    The drivers are usually pretty chatty on the intercom on LNER when there’s a problem
    often in too much detail remembering the time my train went over a deer outside Grantham..
    Did they add venison to the menu?

    I used LNER yesterday.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,246

    Have I missed that PB doesn’t like Toby? Say it aint so

    I've never been in one so am unqualified to comment.

    Last time I looked at one of their menus there was nothing for a good Muslim to eat.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,224
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,551

    Have I missed that PB doesn’t like Toby? Say it aint so

    I have never set foot inside one of these establishments so I cannot comment on their quality.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,224
    eek said:

    SWR (now need GBR) need to read the room..

    Heavily overcrowded train and everyone pissed off. Playing two automatic announcements:

    (1) "Abuse against our staff will not be tolerated"
    (2) "You must have a ticket to travel on one of our trains or you will pay a penalty fare"

    Revolutions have started for less. The passenger experience is entirely shit.

    No explanation for the cancellation and an entirely insincere or pre-recorded "apology" if you're lucky. Which we are not.

    The drivers are usually pretty chatty on the intercom on LNER when there’s a problem
    often in too much detail remembering the time my train went over a deer outside Grantham..
    For those of a certain age the announcement that Dave was the Buffet steward was also a source of dread. Whenever there was no-one at the counter he would talk until someone went to purchase something and distracted him for 2 minutes.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 897

    Have I missed that PB doesn’t like Toby? Say it aint so

    I had a voucher and called in at Toby for breakfast after parkrun the other week. It wasn't very good, Wetherspoons are better (and cheaper). The novelty was being able to have Yorkshire pudding and gravy with breakfast
    Have to agree about 'Spoons despite their reputation. Their staff get share options which tends to focus the mind somewhat.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,506
    Battlebus said:

    Eabhal said:

    Interesting polling.

    Conservative voters appear to be the most pragmatic about it, with high scores for both cuts to spending and increases in tax. They might appreciate that a very large chunk of public spending goes on them given their age profile.

    Labour and Lib Dem voters are a bit deluded - they need to accept that they tend to occupy the highest incomes, so at least some of any tax rises need to come from them (though a fair chunk might come from wealth via increased council tax, for example, or from benefits).

    Reform voters are the biggest proponents of cake-ism, though there is a glimmer of justification in that given working-age benefits and spending have been relatively hammered and tax thresholds etc have been frozen. They are much younger than Conservatives, on average.

    So the Government is redistributive and gives the money to their supporters. It's a simple enough concept for anyone to grasp.
    At the moment, I think every party is serving a cabal.

    For the Conservatives, it's pensioners. For Labour, it's public sector workers.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,745
    Nigelb said:

    Fishing said:

    Nigelb said:

    One reason our governments keep letting people down and disappointing them is because our electorate is deluded.

    Not the electorate's fault.
    Politicians of every party - including new kids in the block Reform - have been making unfundable promises since the dawn of time.

    They've got away with borrowing and selling assets for several decades, and are now facing crunch time.
    That's true, but I think you infantilise the electorate by minimising their agency and denying their responsibility.

    At some point, adults are responsible for making intelligent decisions, which is the theory behind democracy after all. It is unrealistic to expect the Great Unwashed to make correct decisions on technical economic issues. But knowing that you can't forever spend more than you earn should is not difficult or technical - the electorate just doesn't want to hear it.

    If they don't understand these matters, they should at least defer to those who do, while holding them accountable for the results. And if the electorate keep electing those who continually avoid making choices that are hard in the short term but pay off in the long term, they have only themselves to blame.
    Successive governments, on both right and left - and including the "realist" Margaret Thatcher - have protected them from reality by borrowing and selling assets.
    You can't really blame the electorate for falling for it.
    I think the big failure was the failure to create a sovereign wealth fund for the proceeds of North Sea oil, the proceeds from the sale of assets could have gone into that too. And while I agree with the sale of council houses, there should have been clawback on profits from resale and at least some of the proceeds should have gone on building new ones, or maybe on buying and refurbishing old housing stock for rent.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,506
    stodge said:

    Back to the meat and four veg of politics :)

    No surprises in the polling in the thread header. We've known this for ages - it's much easier for politicians, especially those who want to get elected, to say what the public wants to hear and to promise them the earth rather than be honest with them about what's possible and what isn't.

    As a portion of overall expenditure, defence spending isn't large but if you are going to raise it, which is fine in and of itself, you need to explain how to cover the increase.

    We aren't dealing with 100 Warsaw Pact armoured divisions at peak operational stength two hours drive from the Rhine but the nature and reality of warfare has also changed so our thinking must change with it.

    As for the basic premise, until and unless politicians of all stripes start offering some honesty, we will get nowhere slowly absent a technological game changer which generates the kind of economic growth (4-5% per annum) which would cover all this largesse.

    The division (not armoured) remains, as it always has, between the tax and spending cutters on one side and the tax risers on the other though it's not really an either/or as much as a both/and.

    That's before we even get to the substantive of reducing the deficit and borrowing by somewhere in the region of £100 billion to get the public finances under some kind of control. When the debate starts with every spending cut and every tax rise being considered the end of civilisation, that illustrates the paucity of the thinking and the cowardice of the politicians.

    It's a stretch, given how cakey the Liberal Democrats themselves can be, but they could get into the 20s if they espoused fiscal rectitude and outflanked Kemi on it, whilst she kept talking about culture.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,350

    GBR has started as well as expected.

    Peak 7.14am train cancelled this morning (no reason given) and follow-up 7.44am train has 8 coaches, rather than 12, so is absurdly overcrowded and people can't get on.

    Its not GBR. Its the same SWR as it was last week. Same managers, same resources, same maths, same decision makers (the DfT)
    I'm afraid it is now GBR.

    The fact everyone might have been TUPEd across doesn't change that.
    GBR doesn't yet exist. SWR - like SE and LNER etc - is now managed by DfT Operator Ltd (was DfT OLR - Operator of Last Resort - Holdings Ltd). When SWR was contracted to First group all of the decisions were made inside the DfT and a management fee paid to First. Its now the same operating managers with the same DfT overlords, just without First receiving a fee.

    Sticker applied to a single car of a single unit aside, there is no GBR. Yet. I believe the phrase is "Nothing Has Changed". Because in practice nothing has. Same DfT meddling. Same lack of train sets. Same lack of money. Same operational managers.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,745
    Battlebus said:

    Have I missed that PB doesn’t like Toby? Say it aint so

    I had a voucher and called in at Toby for breakfast after parkrun the other week. It wasn't very good, Wetherspoons are better (and cheaper). The novelty was being able to have Yorkshire pudding and gravy with breakfast
    Have to agree about 'Spoons despite their reputation. Their staff get share options which tends to focus the mind somewhat.
    Their breakfasts are good and cheap, and you can have unlimited coffee for a couple of pounds extra from very good barista machines which Wetherspoons must have spent a lot of money on.

    They have unfortunately taken all the grills off the menu, apparently they couldn't make a profit at the price they charge and didn't think there was any room to increase it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,631
    I'm interested in the "Gastropubs" conversation, and the term. Are self-dubbed gastropubs more corporate?

    I've long enjoyed eating good food at good pubs, whether living down there in London for 6 or 7 years, or up here in Notts/Derbys. I'm not sure what the difference is, apart from a bit of pomposity or a 'famous' chef who likes looking in the mirror.

    When I was in the Hardwick Inn on Saturday, having been walking on the Hardwick Estate Bastion Walk & landing on my butt because of a patch of mud that had no right to exist this far into a hot summer, a main course 'light bite' version (ie UK not US size) with a slice of one of their home made pies, a snack and a pint cost just around under £20. Their draught beers suitable for "half pint with a one hour meal" (i.e., ~4%) were Chatsworth Gold & Theakstons Best. They also had Taylors' Landlord and Old Peculiar on. For Ozzies, they also have kangaroo pee.

    That's a nice food pub to me, but Google call it a Gastropub. Which is it? For me it's a good place to park because it saves me the 5 mile journey out and back through the Estate one way system, and the big hill is at the start of the walk not the end.

    Also ideally situated for people wanting a break between M1J28 and M1J29, and has been in the same family foe 100 years or more. It's a beautifully placed site - just on the National Trust one way system exit, so 250k passing traffic a year are guaranteed, and for those in the know the food is better and less pricey pro-rate than the NT restaurant. You also get the free on foot entrance to the estate shops and so on, without breaching the inner pay perimeter.

    Derbyshire has dozens of similar places, with their different styles, nearly everywhere.

    https://hardwickinn.co.uk/index.html
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,694
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Very much the end of times it would seem. For the second time in as many days, I find myself agreeing with a @BartholomewRoberts post.

    There's nothing wrong with Toby Carvery - yes, the snobs don't get it. It's not The Ivy and doesn't pretend to be but I've never had a duff meal in my local (Snaresbrook).

    Some may feel a Yorkshire Pudding for breakfast is an idea ahead of its time and I have some sympathy with that view and when you go "large" you never fill your plate with extraneous Yorkies. Indeed, I have a friend who took up learning physics to see how much they could pile on their plate and the best way of usuing gravity to their advantage.

    You can also quickly tell those who've played Tetris in their youth.

    Saturdays are the best day becasue they have roast lamb - a little bit of reconnaissance required to see when a new joint appears and then up you go.

    One of the interesting things about long-distance walking is that you end up using whatever facilities are available. Sans car, you cannot be choosy. If there's a pub or restaurant open, and I need food, I try to get in for some grub. I've had terrible food in fairly expensive places, and great food in ones that look poor (transport cafes are often wrongly neglected for quality of food). On occasion I've had much better value and quality from a roadside mobile cafe than I have from a gastropub.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,482

    Battlebus said:

    Eabhal said:

    Interesting polling.

    Conservative voters appear to be the most pragmatic about it, with high scores for both cuts to spending and increases in tax. They might appreciate that a very large chunk of public spending goes on them given their age profile.

    Labour and Lib Dem voters are a bit deluded - they need to accept that they tend to occupy the highest incomes, so at least some of any tax rises need to come from them (though a fair chunk might come from wealth via increased council tax, for example, or from benefits).

    Reform voters are the biggest proponents of cake-ism, though there is a glimmer of justification in that given working-age benefits and spending have been relatively hammered and tax thresholds etc have been frozen. They are much younger than Conservatives, on average.

    So the Government is redistributive and gives the money to their supporters. It's a simple enough concept for anyone to grasp.
    At the moment, I think every party is serving a cabal.

    For the Conservatives, it's pensioners. For Labour, it's public sector workers.
    That’s overly simplistic. For what it’s worth almost all of my millennial/GenZ liberal metropolitan whatever friends who work in the public sector are unhappy with the current government. That doesn’t mean they will vote for Reform but they don’t feel “served” lets put it that way.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,899
    eek said:

    Thames Water preferred bidder KKR pulls out of rescue deal

    Future of troubled supplier in doubt as US private equity group says it cannot proceed with acquiring £4bn stake


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/03/thames-water-kkr-pulls-out-rescue-deal

    There better not be a bailout.

    There cannot be a bailout

    So the entire South East of England goes without water?

    Starmer caused the problem he will have to resolve the problem.
    When RBS et al went down, operations didn’t miss a beat. The ATMs kept running, even mortgages were being put through.

    The people running the company keep on working.

    What happens is a high finance drama. Shareholders wiped out. Bond holder get nuked as well.

    Relieved of debt, the ship rights it self. Like a sailing ship on it beam ends, when they cut the masts away.

    The important thing is that, when the government steps in, they guarantee the suppliers bills. Otherwise companies in the supply chain go bust.

    Lend money to Thames Water for this purpose, as the most senior form of debt. So when the previous debt is annihilated, the loan is protected.

    Without nearly all of its previous debt Thames Water will be very profitable. It will pay back the handful of millions to protect the suppliers, easily. If managed sensibly, the government will make a profit on the loan.
    I'd also add that if TQ does go bust, ban the owning company(/ies) / pension funds from having any significant ownership of UK companies, and the senior management from any management positions in the UK. Macquarie Group as well for their time in charge.

    (Yes, I know this might well be illegal. But it shouldn't be.)
    You don't need to ban them - just a quiet word saying remember how much you (or your mates) lost on Thames Water. Do you really think its a good idea letting them get involved..
    Nah. Act of Attainder making them outlaws. Just in case.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,551

    Battlebus said:

    Have I missed that PB doesn’t like Toby? Say it aint so

    I had a voucher and called in at Toby for breakfast after parkrun the other week. It wasn't very good, Wetherspoons are better (and cheaper). The novelty was being able to have Yorkshire pudding and gravy with breakfast
    Have to agree about 'Spoons despite their reputation. Their staff get share options which tends to focus the mind somewhat.
    Their breakfasts are good and cheap, and you can have unlimited coffee for a couple of pounds extra from very good barista machines which Wetherspoons must have spent a lot of money on.

    They have unfortunately taken all the grills off the menu, apparently they couldn't make a profit at the price they charge and didn't think there was any room to increase it.
    I don't tend to frequent Spoons myself as we have so many other good pub options locally, including our local, Skehans, London's best pub (Timeout, 2023). However, my 18yo daughter, being a cash-strapped youngster, is a devotee. The young people love the Brockley Barge.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,350

    stodge said:

    Back to the meat and four veg of politics :)

    No surprises in the polling in the thread header. We've known this for ages - it's much easier for politicians, especially those who want to get elected, to say what the public wants to hear and to promise them the earth rather than be honest with them about what's possible and what isn't.

    As a portion of overall expenditure, defence spending isn't large but if you are going to raise it, which is fine in and of itself, you need to explain how to cover the increase.

    We aren't dealing with 100 Warsaw Pact armoured divisions at peak operational stength two hours drive from the Rhine but the nature and reality of warfare has also changed so our thinking must change with it.

    As for the basic premise, until and unless politicians of all stripes start offering some honesty, we will get nowhere slowly absent a technological game changer which generates the kind of economic growth (4-5% per annum) which would cover all this largesse.

    The division (not armoured) remains, as it always has, between the tax and spending cutters on one side and the tax risers on the other though it's not really an either/or as much as a both/and.

    That's before we even get to the substantive of reducing the deficit and borrowing by somewhere in the region of £100 billion to get the public finances under some kind of control. When the debate starts with every spending cut and every tax rise being considered the end of civilisation, that illustrates the paucity of the thinking and the cowardice of the politicians.

    It's a stretch, given how cakey the Liberal Democrats themselves can be, but they could get into the 20s if they espoused fiscal rectitude and outflanked Kemi on it, whilst she kept talking about culture.
    I want us going after structural reforms. You rightly flagged that we're borrowing £150bn this year and its a problem. It is - because we're burning it rather than investing in it.

    An example - education is a crumbling mess because of previous market reforms fragmenting the system to create an army of managers and contracts. We can restructure but that takes time and money. We need to bring trained teaching and support staff back into the profession but that means money on pay and conditions.

    The costs will rise in the immediate term. But the benefit long term is sizeable. We actually educate our kids in schools which aren't falling down, with viable class sizes, with teaching resource fit for purpose. Attainment goes up. Emergency spending - lack of teachers, school building crumbling, kids missing, SEND emergency provision etc etc - goes down.

    Borrow. Invest. Gain a return on the investment.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 24,275

    Thames Water preferred bidder KKR pulls out of rescue deal

    Future of troubled supplier in doubt as US private equity group says it cannot proceed with acquiring £4bn stake


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/03/thames-water-kkr-pulls-out-rescue-deal

    There better not be a bailout.

    We have an administration process for a reason.

    Let it go bankrupt and burn the shareholders and boldholders.

    Privatise the gains, privatise the losses.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,696
    Fishing said:

    Nigelb said:

    One reason our governments keep letting people down and disappointing them is because our electorate is deluded.

    Not the electorate's fault.
    Politicians of every party - including new kids in the block Reform - have been making unfundable promises since the dawn of time.

    They've got away with borrowing and selling assets for several decades, and are now facing crunch time.
    That's true, but I think you infantilise the electorate by minimising their agency and denying their responsibility.

    At some point, adults are responsible for making intelligent decisions, which is the theory behind democracy after all. It is unrealistic to expect the Great Unwashed to make correct decisions on technical economic issues. But knowing that you can't forever spend more than you earn should is not difficult or technical - the electorate just doesn't want to hear it.

    If they don't understand these matters, they should at least defer to those who do, while holding them accountable for the results. And if the electorate keep electing those who continually avoid making choices that are hard in the short term but pay off in the long term, they have only themselves to blame.
    There are many millions of people who do continually spend more than they earn with the difference being made up with state benefits. These people often know mostly others who are in the same situation.

    Similarly I've met public sector workers who are baffled to hear some people are net financial contributors to the state. As 'everyone they know' tends to receive money from the government they might assume that applies to everyone they don't know as well.

    There's likely a tipping point where there are so many people being a net recipient of pay, benefits and/or services from the state that it becomes the 'new normal' and its assumed that it can go on forever.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 24,275
    Nigelb said:

    Thames Water preferred bidder KKR pulls out of rescue deal

    Future of troubled supplier in doubt as US private equity group says it cannot proceed with acquiring £4bn stake


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/03/thames-water-kkr-pulls-out-rescue-deal

    There better not be a bailout.

    Take the effing thing into public ownership, and drive the hardest possible bargain with debt holders by threatening receivership.

    It would provide a salutary lesson for the rest of the industry - and might even end up bring a profitable deal for government.
    Don't take it into public ownership before it goes into receivership, if you do that then taxpayers will be liable to the bondholders since we'll have taken on the obligations of ownership.

    Let it go into administration and buy the assets at pennies on the pound if nobody else does after its gone into receivership.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 24,275

    Thames Water preferred bidder KKR pulls out of rescue deal

    Future of troubled supplier in doubt as US private equity group says it cannot proceed with acquiring £4bn stake


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/03/thames-water-kkr-pulls-out-rescue-deal

    There better not be a bailout.

    There cannot be a bailout

    So the entire South East of England goes without water?

    Starmer caused the problem he will have to resolve the problem.
    There is no interruption to supplies of water during a process of administration or bankruptcy. Continuity of operations is built in to the system.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,631
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Very much the end of times it would seem. For the second time in as many days, I find myself agreeing with a @BartholomewRoberts post.

    There's nothing wrong with Toby Carvery - yes, the snobs don't get it. It's not The Ivy and doesn't pretend to be but I've never had a duff meal in my local (Snaresbrook).

    Some may feel a Yorkshire Pudding for breakfast is an idea ahead of its time and I have some sympathy with that view and when you go "large" you never fill your plate with extraneous Yorkies. Indeed, I have a friend who took up learning physics to see how much they could pile on their plate and the best way of usuing gravity to their advantage.

    You can also quickly tell those who've played Tetris in their youth.

    Saturdays are the best day becasue they have roast lamb - a little bit of reconnaissance required to see when a new joint appears and then up you go.

    The Carvery Yorkshire Pudding is a Capitalist Cost Control Device, designed to occupy as much of the medium sized plate as possible with hot air, so that the practically deliverable amount of the more expensive ingredients is subtly limited. It bears some resemblance to a political speech.

    The mitigation strategy is an evolved version of the "row of cucumber slices to extend the size of the small salad bowl in Pizza Hut" technique. This is now redundant due to unlimited salads.
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