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A proper Scottish poll brings good news for Reform and independence – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,503
edited May 31 in General
A proper Scottish poll brings good news for Reform and independence – politicalbetting.com

?? New Norstat poll for @timesscotland – carried out week before Hamilton by-election – shows Reform's Scottish surge continues.Holyrood constituency: ?SNP 33% (-2)?Labour 19% (+1)?Reform 18% (+4)?Conservative 13% (-2)?Lib Dem 8% (-3)?Green 7% (+1)

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,104
    First. Like PSG
  • Nobody apart from like three people will understand the effort @rcs1000 went through but I do so many thanks
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,223

    First. Like PSG

    Thoughts and prayers for Kylian Mbappé.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,728
    I AM STILL MIFFED ABOUT THAT EPISODE
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,461
    Britain is a doomed multikulti toilet. I think I’d probably vote YES, now
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,223
    viewcode said:

    I AM STILL MIFFED ABOUT THAT EPISODE

    Why?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,804
    Given that the next Scottish Parliament is going to be a minority government, it will be interesting to see who is nice to each other and who is nasty in the meantime. With the SNP on one side, the Greens in the huff, Labour psychologically incapable of agreeing with the SNP, and the Tories not knowing what to do about Reform, the Lib Dems could be the kingmakers. Which way will they jump, or will they be strictly neutral?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,223

    Given that the next Scottish Parliament is going to be a minority government, it will be interesting to see who is nice to each other and who is nasty in the meantime. With the SNP on one side, the Greens in the huff, Labour psychologically incapable of agreeing with the SNP, and the Tories not knowing what to do about Reform, the Lib Dems could be the kingmakers. Which way will they jump, or will they be strictly neutral?

    After 2010 I suspect the Lib Dems will avoid anything involving coalitions etc.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,104

    Nobody apart from like three people will understand the effort @rcs1000 went through but I do so many thanks

    It's like the Schleswig-Holstein question then?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,804

    Given that the next Scottish Parliament is going to be a minority government, it will be interesting to see who is nice to each other and who is nasty in the meantime. With the SNP on one side, the Greens in the huff, Labour psychologically incapable of agreeing with the SNP, and the Tories not knowing what to do about Reform, the Lib Dems could be the kingmakers. Which way will they jump, or will they be strictly neutral?

    After 2010 I suspect the Lib Dems will avoid anything involving coalitions etc.
    I suspect the SNP will also avoid any Bute House agreements.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,461
    I see there’s been a large car-hitting-pedestrians incident in Leicester tonight. Presumably we will have the age, nationality, race, gender, faith and freckle-ratio of the alleged perp in a minute or two
  • Scotland goes for independence.

    They want change. Labour need to deliver it or it’s PM Farage
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,804

    Nobody apart from like three people will understand the effort @rcs1000 went through but I do so many thanks

    It's like the Schleswig-Holstein question then?
    In this case, one has retired, one has moved abroad and the other is too busy buying new trainers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,941
    Draper and Norrie into the last 16.

    First time since 1963 that two Brits have done so in Paris.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,500
    That's quite good polling for Reform. Is there a Scottish Nigel Farage? Or is it Nigel Farage?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,539

    Nobody apart from like three people will understand the effort @rcs1000 went through but I do so many thanks

    Thanks RCS!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,588
    edited May 31
    kinabalu said:

    That's quite good polling for Reform. Is there a Scottish Nigel Farage? Or is it Nigel Farage?

    Same as elsewhere

    NOA

    And as for labour in Wales they will be lucky to be 3rd behind Plaid and Reform next year
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,539

    Nobody apart from like three people will understand the effort @rcs1000 went through but I do so many thanks

    It's like the Schleswig-Holstein question then?
    In this case, one has retired, one has moved abroad and the other is too busy buying new trainers.
    Wait, he takes time choosing those?


    J/k, they were very nice.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,461

    Scotland goes for independence.

    They want change. Labour need to deliver it or it’s PM Farage

    Are you serious about now supporting Reform? If so, what’s tipped you over?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,206
    Nigelb said:

    Draper and Norrie into the last 16.

    First time since 1963 that two Brits have done so in Paris.

    But Norrie faces Djokovic. Draper-Bublik should be fun though. Bublik's a riot.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,206
    An odd artefact of our fractured media landscape: Jack Draper is 4th in the world and no one gives a toss. Maybe it's just because he hasn't done well at Wimbledon yet.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,461

    First. Like PSG

    Thoughts and prayers for Kylian Mbappé.
    Mbappe has already won the French league, the Spanish league, and - not least - the World Cup. I’ve got a weird feeling he’ll cope
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,223
    Leon said:

    First. Like PSG

    Thoughts and prayers for Kylian Mbappé.
    Mbappe has already won the French league, the Spanish league, and - not least - the World Cup. I’ve got a weird feeling he’ll cope
    He's not won the Spanish league.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,223
    carnforth said:

    An odd artefact of our fractured media landscape: Jack Draper is 4th in the world and no one gives a toss. Maybe it's just because he hasn't done well at Wimbledon yet.

    Three out of four of the grand slams are behind a paywall.

    It's hard to get attention, he needs to perform at Wimbledon to get all due deference.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,461

    Leon said:

    First. Like PSG

    Thoughts and prayers for Kylian Mbappé.
    Mbappe has already won the French league, the Spanish league, and - not least - the World Cup. I’ve got a weird feeling he’ll cope
    He's not won the Spanish league.
    Has he not?!

    My bad. I presumed real win it every year since Barca retreated

    Still, it’s not gonna be long for that and the UCL. And he was a World Cup winner as a teen (and scored in the final). And he’s won the golden boot

    When it comes to deserving pity, he’s no Harry Kane
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,582
    edited May 31
    carnforth said:

    An odd artefact of our fractured media landscape: Jack Draper is 4th in the world and no one gives a toss. Maybe it's just because he hasn't done well at Wimbledon yet.

    He’s got everything going for him . I’d be shocked if he doesn’t win a Slam , his best chance should be Wimbledon and he’s also very good looking . Advertisers will be queuing up to sign him .
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,206

    carnforth said:

    An odd artefact of our fractured media landscape: Jack Draper is 4th in the world and no one gives a toss. Maybe it's just because he hasn't done well at Wimbledon yet.

    Three out of four of the grand slams are behind a paywall.

    It's hard to get attention, he needs to perform at Wimbledon to get all due deference.
    Indeed. But was there a time when more than one Grand Slam was on free-to-air TV?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,223
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    An odd artefact of our fractured media landscape: Jack Draper is 4th in the world and no one gives a toss. Maybe it's just because he hasn't done well at Wimbledon yet.

    Three out of four of the grand slams are behind a paywall.

    It's hard to get attention, he needs to perform at Wimbledon to get all due deference.
    Indeed. But was there a time when more than one Grand Slam was on free-to-air TV?
    Yes, the French Open and Australian Open were FTA until last year.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,582
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    An odd artefact of our fractured media landscape: Jack Draper is 4th in the world and no one gives a toss. Maybe it's just because he hasn't done well at Wimbledon yet.

    Three out of four of the grand slams are behind a paywall.

    It's hard to get attention, he needs to perform at Wimbledon to get all due deference.
    Indeed. But was there a time when more than one Grand Slam was on free-to-air TV?
    ITV used to have the French Open .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,924
    edited May 31
    I suspect these figures will not be too disappointing for Labour or Unionists. Labour will be relieved to still be second to the SNP, just ahead of Reform on votes and seats at Holyrood and on seats at Westminster. The fact that Holyrood will shift from a nationalist majority between the SNP and Greens to a Unionist majority of MSPs for Labour, Reform, the Conservatives and LDs makes indyref2 polls irrelevant anyway as Unionist MSPs would block a minority SNP government even asking Westminster for one
  • vikvik Posts: 464
    Rachel Reeves is now as unpopular as Kwasi Kwarteng during the height of the mini-Budget blow-up.

    Some 51 per cent of voters think Ms Reeves is doing a “bad job” at the Treasury, according to Ipsos. Just 16 per cent think she is doing a “good job”.

    In the aftermath of the mini-Budget in late September 2022, Ipsos found that 53 per cent of the public thought Mr Kwarteng was doing a “bad job”.

    He was sacked a fortnight later as Ms Truss scrambled to save her premiership.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/05/31/rachel-reeves-unpopular-kwarteng-labour-reform-tories/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,461
    The wealth of football talent in the Ile de France is interesting. France seems to have colonised the best places for producing great footballers

    How come South Asia isn’t doing quite the same for English cricket? Or Polynesia for English rugby?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,728
    edited May 31

    viewcode said:

    I AM STILL MIFFED ABOUT THAT EPISODE

    Why?
    Multiple reasons
    • Ncuti's reign was hyper, everything was Sunny Delight and insufficient quiet drama.
    • He never met the Daleks, the Cybermen, nor the Weeping Angels
    • The ending was rushed and obviously forced.
    • The discourse and leaks indicated that they were planning to start filming the next series in Q1 2025 but Disney got cold feet, Ncuti decided to jump ship, and reshoots in February filled in the regeneration. It shows.
    • Given the urgency, I doubt they auditioned widely and Billie may simply have been the first to hand who was available and willing to work with RTD. I assume if more time was available they'd've cast Russell Tovey (RTD's original chice for Eleven before Moffat cast Matt Smith)
    • The Ruby/Belinda problem (Millie couldn't take the workload and her role was scaled back despite guarantees to her that it wouldn't happen, requiring Belinda as an emergency companion and frantic rewrites) was obvious in this episode. Millie should have been John Smith's "wife" and Poppy bonding with her instead of Belinda would have made more sense.
    • Shenanigans again. RTD does not run a tight ship. In his first run in the Noughties Eccleston pissed off and hates RTD, Martha (Freema Agyeman) was fired for no good reason, John Barrowman was rubbing his penis against everybody (yes, that really happened), and now it's happened again in the 2020s. The shenanigans, not the penis. Probably.
    • I don't like the idea of a surprise regeneration.
    • The regeneration itself was forced. In normal circs he would have done something sciencey/timey wimey and made Poppy reappear, not a forced suicide.
    • RTD has gone full fanboy. Susan? Omega? The Rani? Seriously??? No wonder the viewers switched off.
    • Archie Panjabi must be resurrected somehow. I insist.
    • Hanging plotlines. Rogue was badly resolved. Susan was unresolved (the original ending had her in the background, leaning into series 16/3)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,500
    Nigelb said:

    Draper and Norrie into the last 16.

    First time since 1963 that two Brits have done so in Paris.

    Draper is a genuine slam contender now but I'll be surprised if anybody other than Sinner or Alcaraz wins this one.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,461
    HYUFD said:

    I suspect these figures will not be too disappointing for Labour or Unionists. Labour will be relieved to still be second to the SNP, just ahead of Reform on votes at seats at Holyrood and on seats at Westminster. The fact that Holyrood will shift from a nationalist majority between the SNP and Greens to a Unionist majority of MSPs for Labour, Reform, the Conservatives and LDs makes indyref2 polls irrelevant anyway as Unionist MSPs would block a minority SNP government even asking Westminster for one

    Reform are going to overtake Labour in Scotland

    If you’re a right wing unionist in Scotland you now have an obvious alternative to the hated and tarnished Tories. I expect reform to devour the Scottish right wing vote and supersede Labour, which shares the left and centre left with the LDs, Greens and Nats
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,588
    HYUFD said:

    I suspect these figures will not be too disappointing for Labour or Unionists. Labour will be relieved to still be second to the SNP, just ahead of Reform on votes and seats at Holyrood and on seats at Westminster. The fact that Holyrood will shift from a nationalist majority between the SNP and Greens to a Unionist majority of MSPs for Labour, Reform, the Conservatives and LDs makes indyref2 polls irrelevant anyway as Unionist MSPs would block a minority SNP government even asking Westminster for one

    You are taking an awful lot for granted there
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,924

    HYUFD said:

    I suspect these figures will not be too disappointing for Labour or Unionists. Labour will be relieved to still be second to the SNP, just ahead of Reform on votes and seats at Holyrood and on seats at Westminster. The fact that Holyrood will shift from a nationalist majority between the SNP and Greens to a Unionist majority of MSPs for Labour, Reform, the Conservatives and LDs makes indyref2 polls irrelevant anyway as Unionist MSPs would block a minority SNP government even asking Westminster for one

    You are taking an awful lot for granted there
    Just going on the Maths of what the poll would mean on seats
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,924
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    I suspect these figures will not be too disappointing for Labour or Unionists. Labour will be relieved to still be second to the SNP, just ahead of Reform on votes at seats at Holyrood and on seats at Westminster. The fact that Holyrood will shift from a nationalist majority between the SNP and Greens to a Unionist majority of MSPs for Labour, Reform, the Conservatives and LDs makes indyref2 polls irrelevant anyway as Unionist MSPs would block a minority SNP government even asking Westminster for one

    Reform are going to overtake Labour in Scotland

    If you’re a right wing unionist in Scotland you now have an obvious alternative to the hated and tarnished Tories. I expect reform to devour the Scottish right wing vote and supersede Labour, which shares the left and centre left with the LDs, Greens and Nats
    We will see but a the moment the only GB region Reform poll worse in than Scotland is London, ie the only 2 regions which voted to stay in the EU in 2016
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,588
    edited May 31
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I suspect these figures will not be too disappointing for Labour or Unionists. Labour will be relieved to still be second to the SNP, just ahead of Reform on votes and seats at Holyrood and on seats at Westminster. The fact that Holyrood will shift from a nationalist majority between the SNP and Greens to a Unionist majority of MSPs for Labour, Reform, the Conservatives and LDs makes indyref2 polls irrelevant anyway as Unionist MSPs would block a minority SNP government even asking Westminster for one

    You are taking an awful lot for granted there
    Just going on the Maths of what the poll would mean on seats
    Exactly but you have no real knowledge of Scotland or the Scots and assume nothing changes from one poll to another

    I can understand the Scots increasingly wanting Independence
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,083
    Why would Scots want English nationalism?

  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,461

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I suspect these figures will not be too disappointing for Labour or Unionists. Labour will be relieved to still be second to the SNP, just ahead of Reform on votes and seats at Holyrood and on seats at Westminster. The fact that Holyrood will shift from a nationalist majority between the SNP and Greens to a Unionist majority of MSPs for Labour, Reform, the Conservatives and LDs makes indyref2 polls irrelevant anyway as Unionist MSPs would block a minority SNP government even asking Westminster for one

    You are taking an awful lot for granted there
    Just going on the Maths of what the poll would mean on seats
    Exactly but you have no real knowledge of Scotland or the Scots and assume nothing changes from one poll to another

    I can understand the Scots increasingly wanting Independence
    YES is a statement of angry despair. And like you I understand it. I’d probably say it. Look at the state of Britain

    However it’s utterly gestural. I now believe Sindyref2 will never happen. The world is about to change in ways which will render it ludicrously trivial and pointless
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,461
    FF43 said:

    Why would Scots want English nationalism?

    Because it isn’t English nationalism, not any more. Reform is British politics polarising on racial lines
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,804
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    I suspect these figures will not be too disappointing for Labour or Unionists. Labour will be relieved to still be second to the SNP, just ahead of Reform on votes at seats at Holyrood and on seats at Westminster. The fact that Holyrood will shift from a nationalist majority between the SNP and Greens to a Unionist majority of MSPs for Labour, Reform, the Conservatives and LDs makes indyref2 polls irrelevant anyway as Unionist MSPs would block a minority SNP government even asking Westminster for one

    Reform are going to overtake Labour in Scotland

    If you’re a right wing unionist in Scotland you now have an obvious alternative to the hated and tarnished Tories. I expect reform to devour the Scottish right wing vote and supersede Labour, which shares the left and centre left with the LDs, Greens and Nats
    In Scotland, Labour are also a right wing party.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,022

    Given that the next Scottish Parliament is going to be a minority government, it will be interesting to see who is nice to each other and who is nasty in the meantime. With the SNP on one side, the Greens in the huff, Labour psychologically incapable of agreeing with the SNP, and the Tories not knowing what to do about Reform, the Lib Dems could be the kingmakers. Which way will they jump, or will they be strictly neutral?

    After 2010 I suspect the Lib Dems will avoid anything involving coalitions etc.
    They happily coalitioned with Labour for several years in Scotland before the SNP ascendancy. Did them no harm. They would certainly do so again.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,804
    FF43 said:

    Why would Scots want English nationalism?

    We don’t, but we’ve had it since 2016.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,461
    Do people seriously still not understand what Reform is? And why it is? And why it’s succeeding?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,804
    Leon said:

    Do people seriously still not understand what Reform is? And why it is? And why it’s succeeding?

    Yes. It’s because Britain is full of racists like you.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,552
    54% support independence. 40% support parties that support independence. So the other 14%, which anti-independence parties are they supporting??
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,299
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Why would Scots want English nationalism?

    Because it isn’t English nationalism, not any more. Reform is British politics polarising on racial lines
    Farage the traitor. With handlers in Moscow giving him orders, the same place murky funding has come from, and he has benefited electorally and politically from malign foreign states electoral interference in our democracy. As Britain stands with NATO and EU to condemn and repulse the Butcher Putin’s invasion of Ukraine - Farage is actually blaming NATO and EU for causing the war in Ukraine - so on the Kremlins orders, Reform are tearing down Ukraine flag from every UK office where it was flying in solidarity.
    Yet all the time trying to make out he’s just a good old fashioned Conservative? Farage is the front to a party infiltrated by Britain First, Patriotic Alternative and so on and so on - giving each other Roman Salutes behind closed doors just as Meloni’s fascist party have been proved to be doing. That is who Reform votes goes to, that is what Reform votes are empowering.

    The rise of Reform is not British politics polarising on racial lines, their rise in the polls neatly matches money draining out of pockets and household housekeeping jugs, it’s a short lived cost of living gasm, nothing more than that.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,728

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Why would Scots want English nationalism?

    Because it isn’t English nationalism, not any more. Reform is British politics polarising on racial lines
    Farage the traitor. With handlers in Moscow giving him orders, the same place murky funding has come from, and he has benefited electorally and politically from malign foreign states electoral interference in our democracy. As Britain stands with NATO and EU to condemn and repulse the Butcher Putin’s invasion of Ukraine - Farage is actually blaming NATO and EU for causing the war in Ukraine - so on the Kremlins orders, Reform are tearing down Ukraine flag from every UK office where it was flying in solidarity.
    Yet all the time trying to make out he’s just a good old fashioned Conservative? Farage is the front to a party infiltrated by Britain First, Patriotic Alternative and so on and so on - giving each other Roman Salutes behind closed doors just as Meloni’s fascist party have been proved to be doing. That is who Reform votes goes to, that is what Reform votes are empowering.

    The rise of Reform is not British politics polarising on racial lines, their rise in the polls neatly matches money draining out of pockets and household housekeeping jugs, it’s a short lived cost of living gasm, nothing more than that.
    The two explanations are not exclusionary
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,461

    Leon said:

    Do people seriously still not understand what Reform is? And why it is? And why it’s succeeding?

    Yes. It’s because Britain is full of racists like you.
    Well, that’s not very nice

    However your underlying analysis is correct. Decades of endless race-obsessed, race-driven often frankly racist politics from the Woke left have - belatedly, inevitably - induced a racial reaction

    And this is happening across the West

  • vikvik Posts: 464
    kinabalu said:

    That's quite good polling for Reform. Is there a Scottish Nigel Farage? Or is it Nigel Farage?

    It's not very good polling, when compared to the Scottish subsamples for three of the national polls (Yougov, More In Common & Find Out Now), which showed Reform ahead of, or only slightly behind the SNP.

    The Scottish subsample for Opinium also contradicts the above three polls and is closer to Norstat and shows SNP 33%, Reform 20%.

    If Yougov/More In Common/Find Out Now are correct, then Reform is extremely likely to win the Hamilton by-election.

    If NorStat & Opinium are correct, then most likely the SNP will retain Hamilton.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,206
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq69vqpp2l4o

    First leak from Defence Review

    "UK government to spend £1.5bn on six new weapons factories"
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,083
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Why would Scots want English nationalism?

    Because it isn’t English nationalism, not any more. Reform is British politics polarising on racial lines
    With some people in Scotland - I think you are right. He does at least have a distinctive voice. But I suspect Farage is pretty much at his ceiling here and he is driving a boost in the independence vote precisely because most people aren't interested in English nationalism.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,461

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Why would Scots want English nationalism?

    Because it isn’t English nationalism, not any more. Reform is British politics polarising on racial lines
    Farage the traitor. With handlers in Moscow giving him orders, the same place murky funding has come from, and he has benefited electorally and politically from malign foreign states electoral interference in our democracy. As Britain stands with NATO and EU to condemn and repulse the Butcher Putin’s invasion of Ukraine - Farage is actually blaming NATO and EU for causing the war in Ukraine - so on the Kremlins orders, Reform are tearing down Ukraine flag from every UK office where it was flying in solidarity.
    Yet all the time trying to make out he’s just a good old fashioned Conservative? Farage is the front to a party infiltrated by Britain First, Patriotic Alternative and so on and so on - giving each other Roman Salutes behind closed doors just as Meloni’s fascist party have been proved to be doing. That is who Reform votes goes to, that is what Reform votes are empowering.

    The rise of Reform is not British politics polarising on racial lines, their rise in the polls neatly matches money draining out of pockets and household housekeeping jugs, it’s a short lived cost of living gasm, nothing more than that.
    I see your name and stop reading at line 2. Sorry
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,349
    edited May 31
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,854
    viewcode said:

    I AM STILL MIFFED ABOUT THAT EPISODE

    What you should do, and I speak as a Who fan, is just write this all off. Go watch Colony in Space and cheer yourself up.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,461
    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Why would Scots want English nationalism?

    Because it isn’t English nationalism, not any more. Reform is British politics polarising on racial lines
    With some people in Scotland - I think you are right. He does at least have a distinctive voice. But I suspect Farage is pretty much at his ceiling here and he is driving a boost in the independence vote precisely because most people aren't interested in English nationalism.
    We shall see

    I reckon Farage is just one or two charismatic Scottish candidates away from a real surge in Scotland which would not only overtake Labour and the Tories but threaten the SNP

    Why should Scotland be immune to the populist right wave sweeping the West? I see no reason. Reform is the natural vehicle
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,349

    Leon said:

    Do people seriously still not understand what Reform is? And why it is? And why it’s succeeding?

    Yes. It’s because Britain is full of racists like you.
    There has probably never been a time and place less racist than the UK in 2025.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,461
    Andy_JS said:
    15m now
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,461
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Do people seriously still not understand what Reform is? And why it is? And why it’s succeeding?

    Yes. It’s because Britain is full of racists like you.
    There has probably never been a time and place less racist than the UK in 2025.
    This is both very true and very wrong
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,854
    kinabalu said:

    That's quite good polling for Reform. Is there a Scottish Nigel Farage? Or is it Nigel Farage?

    I keep thinking there is a Reform-shaped path 'to glory' for Tommy Sheridan. 'Wronged' by the woke media (or whatever), man of the people, against the status-quo.

    But there is also the problem that he had a big ego/personality - and we know how that ends up in Farage-land.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,057
    carnforth said:

    An odd artefact of our fractured media landscape: Jack Draper is 4th in the world and no one gives a toss. Maybe it's just because he hasn't done well at Wimbledon yet.

    Weirdly I think it’s because Murray burst the bubble by winning Wimbledon. Add in Raducanu winning NY and the old no Brit winning thing is no more. So Draper, who has been the coming force for a while now, isn’t getting the attention Murray did. And yes, a good Wimbledon, or whisper it, a French Open final/win would do it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,530
    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Why would Scots want English nationalism?

    Because it isn’t English nationalism, not any more. Reform is British politics polarising on racial lines
    With some people in Scotland - I think you are right. He does at least have a distinctive voice. But I suspect Farage is pretty much at his ceiling here and he is driving a boost in the independence vote precisely because most people aren't interested in English nationalism.
    It's quite lazy analysis to call it English nationalism when Reform are doing notably well in both Wales and Scotland versus the traditional unionist parties.

    If anything it looks like the Lib Dems are starting to become the English equivalent of the SNP with Reform as the party with the broadest support across Great Britain.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,500
    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Why would Scots want English nationalism?

    Because it isn’t English nationalism, not any more. Reform is British politics polarising on racial lines
    With some people in Scotland - I think you are right. He does at least have a distinctive voice. But I suspect Farage is pretty much at his ceiling here and he is driving a boost in the independence vote precisely because most people aren't interested in English nationalism.
    It's no surprise that the prospect of the hard right running amok at Westminster would boost support for Indy in Scotland.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,461
    edited May 31
    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Why would Scots want English nationalism?

    Because it isn’t English nationalism, not any more. Reform is British politics polarising on racial lines
    With some people in Scotland - I think you are right. He does at least have a distinctive voice. But I suspect Farage is pretty much at his ceiling here and he is driving a boost in the independence vote precisely because most people aren't interested in English nationalism.
    It's no surprise that the prospect of the hard right running amok at Westminster would boost support for Indy in Scotland.
    You do realise there is quite a hard right tradition in Scottish Indy? They didn’t used to be entirely green woke lefties

    Their roots are often highly fascistic. Ditto Ireland
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,057
    Nothing on the BBC webpage about the Leicester car attack. Nothing. What the fuck? And yes, the new policy of giving ethnicity by the police has come to an end. As predicted.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,461

    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Why would Scots want English nationalism?

    Because it isn’t English nationalism, not any more. Reform is British politics polarising on racial lines
    With some people in Scotland - I think you are right. He does at least have a distinctive voice. But I suspect Farage is pretty much at his ceiling here and he is driving a boost in the independence vote precisely because most people aren't interested in English nationalism.
    It's quite lazy analysis to call it English nationalism when Reform are doing notably well in both Wales and Scotland versus the traditional unionist parties.

    If anything it looks like the Lib Dems are starting to become the English equivalent of the SNP with Reform as the party with the broadest support across Great Britain.
    Reform would probably do quite well in Norn as a post-religious pro-nativist party
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,461

    Nothing on the BBC webpage about the Leicester car attack. Nothing. What the fuck? And yes, the new policy of giving ethnicity by the police has come to an end. As predicted.

    Yes. As you correctly predicted. How long did it last? 5 days?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,057
    Leon said:

    Nothing on the BBC webpage about the Leicester car attack. Nothing. What the fuck? And yes, the new policy of giving ethnicity by the police has come to an end. As predicted.

    Yes. As you correctly predicted. How long did it last? 5 days?
    The duration was always going to be until the next incident by a non white…
    They must think we are idiots.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,349
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Do people seriously still not understand what Reform is? And why it is? And why it’s succeeding?

    Yes. It’s because Britain is full of racists like you.
    There has probably never been a time and place less racist than the UK in 2025.
    This is both very true and very wrong
    Why wrong?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,924
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Why would Scots want English nationalism?

    Because it isn’t English nationalism, not any more. Reform is British politics polarising on racial lines
    With some people in Scotland - I think you are right. He does at least have a distinctive voice. But I suspect Farage is pretty much at his ceiling here and he is driving a boost in the independence vote precisely because most people aren't interested in English nationalism.
    It's quite lazy analysis to call it English nationalism when Reform are doing notably well in both Wales and Scotland versus the traditional unionist parties.

    If anything it looks like the Lib Dems are starting to become the English equivalent of the SNP with Reform as the party with the broadest support across Great Britain.
    Reform would probably do quite well in Norn as a post-religious pro-nativist party
    Reform don't contest Northern Ireland, at the last general election they had a pact with Traditional Unionist Voice whose candidates were endorsed by Farage
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,083
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Why would Scots want English nationalism?

    Because it isn’t English nationalism, not any more. Reform is British politics polarising on racial lines
    With some people in Scotland - I think you are right. He does at least have a distinctive voice. But I suspect Farage is pretty much at his ceiling here and he is driving a boost in the independence vote precisely because most people aren't interested in English nationalism.
    We shall see

    I reckon Farage is just one or two charismatic Scottish candidates away from a real surge in Scotland which would not only overtake Labour and the Tories but threaten the SNP

    Why should Scotland be immune to the populist right wave sweeping the West? I see no reason. Reform is the natural vehicle
    I wonder who is actually a Reform supporter in Scotland. I know one, and that's because he was the Reform candidate for Edinburgh South at the last Westminster election, previously a hard working Conservative councillor and general good egg, despite being a bit bonkers about climate change conspiracy. I realise company you keep etc and they do exist - 18% of them. But I know loads of SNP, Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem and Green supporters. I even know some Reform supporters in England despite not living there. But not Scottish ones.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,924

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I suspect these figures will not be too disappointing for Labour or Unionists. Labour will be relieved to still be second to the SNP, just ahead of Reform on votes and seats at Holyrood and on seats at Westminster. The fact that Holyrood will shift from a nationalist majority between the SNP and Greens to a Unionist majority of MSPs for Labour, Reform, the Conservatives and LDs makes indyref2 polls irrelevant anyway as Unionist MSPs would block a minority SNP government even asking Westminster for one

    You are taking an awful lot for granted there
    Just going on the Maths of what the poll would mean on seats
    Exactly but you have no real knowledge of Scotland or the Scots and assume nothing changes from one poll to another

    I can understand the Scots increasingly wanting Independence
    If as the poll projects Unionists win a majority of MSPs such hypothetical independence support would be irrelevant as Holyrood would not even ask the UK government for indyref2
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,634
    Leon said:

    Nothing on the BBC webpage about the Leicester car attack. Nothing. What the fuck? And yes, the new policy of giving ethnicity by the police has come to an end. As predicted.

    Yes. As you correctly predicted. How long did it last? 5 days?
    This?

    BBC News - Man arrested after car hits number of pedestrians in Leicester - BBC News
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgqppwwje8o

    It's in the local section, it was last night and the suspect and victims all attended the same private event.

    It's not on the mass scale that the Liverpool one was. Tbh, this type of attack is newsworthy at the moment, but I don't know if lower level vehicle attacks have gone under the radar for years.

    That said, if conspiratorial minds are on to it, it's time for Leicestershire police to crack open the national guidance and communicate what details they can very openly.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,045
    Pro_Rata said:

    Leon said:

    Nothing on the BBC webpage about the Leicester car attack. Nothing. What the fuck? And yes, the new policy of giving ethnicity by the police has come to an end. As predicted.

    Yes. As you correctly predicted. How long did it last? 5 days?
    This?

    BBC News - Man arrested after car hits number of pedestrians in Leicester - BBC News
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgqppwwje8o

    It's in the local section, it was last night and the suspect and victims all attended the same private event.

    It's not on the mass scale that the Liverpool one was. Tbh, this type of attack is newsworthy at the moment, but I don't know if lower level vehicle attacks have gone under the radar for years.

    That said, if conspiratorial minds are on to it, it's time for Leicestershire police to crack open the national guidance and communicate what details they can very openly.
    It happened at 00:31 - i.e. very earliest hours of the morning, and followed reports of a fight.

    So it seems unlikely to be a terrorist incident.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,530
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Why would Scots want English nationalism?

    Because it isn’t English nationalism, not any more. Reform is British politics polarising on racial lines
    With some people in Scotland - I think you are right. He does at least have a distinctive voice. But I suspect Farage is pretty much at his ceiling here and he is driving a boost in the independence vote precisely because most people aren't interested in English nationalism.
    It's quite lazy analysis to call it English nationalism when Reform are doing notably well in both Wales and Scotland versus the traditional unionist parties.

    If anything it looks like the Lib Dems are starting to become the English equivalent of the SNP with Reform as the party with the broadest support across Great Britain.
    Reform would probably do quite well in Norn as a post-religious pro-nativist party
    If the traditional unionist vote in Northern Ireland were captured by such a party I think it would do interesting things to politics south of the border too.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,390
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:
    15m now
    Eric Arthur Blair @ErArBla
    May 29

    Did you seriously blur out the brown people and leave the couple of White offenders unblurred? https://x.com/ErArBla/status/1928026419763814865
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,634
    edited May 31
    rcs1000 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Leon said:

    Nothing on the BBC webpage about the Leicester car attack. Nothing. What the fuck? And yes, the new policy of giving ethnicity by the police has come to an end. As predicted.

    Yes. As you correctly predicted. How long did it last? 5 days?
    This?

    BBC News - Man arrested after car hits number of pedestrians in Leicester - BBC News
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgqppwwje8o

    It's in the local section, it was last night and the suspect and victims all attended the same private event.

    It's not on the mass scale that the Liverpool one was. Tbh, this type of attack is newsworthy at the moment, but I don't know if lower level vehicle attacks have gone under the radar for years.

    That said, if conspiratorial minds are on to it, it's time for Leicestershire police to crack open the national guidance and communicate what details they can very openly.
    It happened at 00:31 - i.e. very earliest hours of the morning, and followed reports of a fight.

    So it seems unlikely to be a terrorist incident.
    Indeed, I don't think Leicestershire police have ever treated it as such and it has probably sat on CIDs desk, not thought of as majorly newsworthy, and with the communications and media on-call not involved.

    But, this is about a response to any building two-tier narrative on Twitter (comprising at the moment about 10 posts - I mean my mind boggles at how early some on PB get notified of this stuff, they must be mainlining conspiracy by mind chip). The media team's job is to get and stay ahead of that narrative, which they can probably still manage at the moment by getting something out there.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,461

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Why would Scots want English nationalism?

    Because it isn’t English nationalism, not any more. Reform is British politics polarising on racial lines
    With some people in Scotland - I think you are right. He does at least have a distinctive voice. But I suspect Farage is pretty much at his ceiling here and he is driving a boost in the independence vote precisely because most people aren't interested in English nationalism.
    It's quite lazy analysis to call it English nationalism when Reform are doing notably well in both Wales and Scotland versus the traditional unionist parties.

    If anything it looks like the Lib Dems are starting to become the English equivalent of the SNP with Reform as the party with the broadest support across Great Britain.
    Reform would probably do quite well in Norn as a post-religious pro-nativist party
    If the traditional unionist vote in Northern Ireland were captured by such a party I think it would do interesting things to politics south of the border too.
    There doesn’t seem to be a mainstream, anti-immigration Irish “nationalist” party a la Reform (or like the RN, or Meloni). Sinn Fein are very pro immigration and pro Palestinian. The other Irish parties are the uniparty as in Britain

    Meanwhile anyone skeptical of mass immigration into Ireland (which is happening at breathtaking speed) has a choice of pretty unsavoury fringe fash parties

    So yes there does seem to be a large open space for a sane populist right party which has moved on from the Troubles, Gerry Adams and “kneecapping”
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,390
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Why would Scots want English nationalism?

    Because it isn’t English nationalism, not any more. Reform is British politics polarising on racial lines
    With some people in Scotland - I think you are right. He does at least have a distinctive voice. But I suspect Farage is pretty much at his ceiling here and he is driving a boost in the independence vote precisely because most people aren't interested in English nationalism.
    It's quite lazy analysis to call it English nationalism when Reform are doing notably well in both Wales and Scotland versus the traditional unionist parties.

    If anything it looks like the Lib Dems are starting to become the English equivalent of the SNP with Reform as the party with the broadest support across Great Britain.
    Reform would probably do quite well in Norn as a post-religious pro-nativist party
    If the traditional unionist vote in Northern Ireland were captured by such a party I think it would do interesting things to politics south of the border too.
    There doesn’t seem to be a mainstream, anti-immigration Irish “nationalist” party a la Reform (or like the RN, or Meloni). Sinn Fein are very pro immigration and pro Palestinian. The other Irish parties are the uniparty as in Britain

    Meanwhile anyone skeptical of mass immigration into Ireland (which is happening at breathtaking speed) has a choice of pretty unsavoury fringe fash parties

    So yes there does seem to be a large open space for a sane populist right party which has moved on from the Troubles, Gerry Adams and “kneecapping”
    TUV had an alliance with Reform at the 2024 GE.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,390
    carnforth said:

    An odd artefact of our fractured media landscape: Jack Draper is 4th in the world and no one gives a toss. Maybe it's just because he hasn't done well at Wimbledon yet.

    COME ON, JACK!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,390
    PINCH, PUNCH, FIRST OF THE MONTH!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,390
    Hello? Hello?

    Echo, echo!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,728

    Hello? Hello?

    Echo, echo!

    Echo, echo...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,594
    edited June 1
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: will start browsing the market shortly, hopefully the terrible run of results betting-wise will end today. But we shall see.

    Edited extra bit: Stroll's not racing.

    https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/breaking-aston-martin-announce-stroll-to-miss-spanish-grand-prix.4FI8kbD2YhaiuMDhXgW8KO
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 884
    kinabalu said:

    That's quite good polling for Reform. Is there a Scottish Nigel Farage? Or is it Nigel Farage?

    It's another foreigner-basing cult. A bit like the SNP I suppose.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,451
    carnforth said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq69vqpp2l4o

    First leak from Defence Review

    "UK government to spend £1.5bn on six new weapons factories"

    Very sensible, if true.

    The defence industry needs reindustrialising.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,625
    Up early this morning, is today’s Sunday Rawnsley:

    How to be a successful Labour government when the public realm is dilapidated but there is no extra money to spend? That question has haunted Rachel Reeves since she arrived at the Treasury and is the central reason why her approval ratings are so terrible. It is the spectre hanging over the multi-year spending review settlement that she will unveil on 11 June.

    Fair play to the government, it is pursuing reforms, such as speeding up the planning system, which should ultimately improve Britain’s long-term prospects. But ultimately and long-term don’t pay today’s bills.

    Further raids into the welfare budget have been privately mooted by the Treasury, but look increasingly unfeasible. For a sizeable chunk of opinion in Labour’s ranks, there’s a glaringly easy answer: increase borrowing by easing the fiscal rules. [But] Sir John Kingman, the chair of Legal & General, who used to be a senior official at the Treasury, puts it well when he says the UK is “already treading a very delicate path, along a cliff-edge in deep fog”. One false step and over you go, into the abyss.

    As it is, some further tax rises in the autumn budget are beginning to look unavoidable. To gather game-changing sums of extra revenue, the chancellor would have to hike the rate of one or more of the big three: income tax, employee national insurance and VAT. Both the Treasury and No 10 regard that as impossible because it would mean breaking Labour’s solemn manifesto pledge.

    So the strain of keeping to the rules will be met by spending restraint. Nigel Farage can promise the moon on a stick. Sir Ed Davey can oppose every tax rise while bemoaning every spending curb. They enjoy the luxurious privilege of being opposition leaders many years ahead of a general election. For the residents of Downing Street, there is no magic money tree.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,451
    June, already.

    Wow.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,844
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Why would Scots want English nationalism?

    Because it isn’t English nationalism, not any more. Reform is British politics polarising on racial lines
    With some people in Scotland - I think you are right. He does at least have a distinctive voice. But I suspect Farage is pretty much at his ceiling here and he is driving a boost in the independence vote precisely because most people aren't interested in English nationalism.
    We shall see

    I reckon Farage is just one or two charismatic Scottish candidates away from a real surge in Scotland which would not only overtake Labour and the Tories but threaten the SNP

    Why should Scotland be immune to the populist right wave sweeping the West? I see no reason. Reform is the natural vehicle
    I think the issue is that most Scots dislike the Conservatives, but quite a lot of Scots are right wing. Now they have a party to vote for.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,451
    viewcode said:

    I AM STILL MIFFED ABOUT THAT EPISODE

    I don't watch Doctor Who, but I thought Ncuti had only just started.

    I can't keep up.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,594
    betting Post

    F1: in a super-exciting bet, I've backed the McLarens and Verstappen to form the podium, at 2.2. Potential for Russell to spoil that but it's going to be bright and sunny and the Mercedes tends to prefer the cold.

    https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/06/spanish-grand-prix-2025-pre-race.html
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,451
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Why would Scots want English nationalism?

    Because it isn’t English nationalism, not any more. Reform is British politics polarising on racial lines
    I don't think it is, and I don't think it's helpful to say it is.

    Democracies that do this don't tend to have happy endings.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,451
    Looks like our nuclear deterrent could go sub-strategic again - fighter jets that can drop tactical nukes:

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/article/review-fighter-jets-nuclear-weapons-x9vldt0sv
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,901
    edited June 1
    IanB2 said:

    Up early this morning, is today’s Sunday Rawnsley:

    How to be a successful Labour government when the public realm is dilapidated but there is no extra money to spend? That question has haunted Rachel Reeves since she arrived at the Treasury and is the central reason why her approval ratings are so terrible. It is the spectre hanging over the multi-year spending review settlement that she will unveil on 11 June.

    Fair play to the government, it is pursuing reforms, such as speeding up the planning system, which should ultimately improve Britain’s long-term prospects. But ultimately and long-term don’t pay today’s bills.

    Further raids into the welfare budget have been privately mooted by the Treasury, but look increasingly unfeasible. For a sizeable chunk of opinion in Labour’s ranks, there’s a glaringly easy answer: increase borrowing by easing the fiscal rules. [But] Sir John Kingman, the chair of Legal & General, who used to be a senior official at the Treasury, puts it well when he says the UK is “already treading a very delicate path, along a cliff-edge in deep fog”. One false step and over you go, into the abyss.

    As it is, some further tax rises in the autumn budget are beginning to look unavoidable. To gather game-changing sums of extra revenue, the chancellor would have to hike the rate of one or more of the big three: income tax, employee national insurance and VAT. Both the Treasury and No 10 regard that as impossible because it would mean breaking Labour’s solemn manifesto pledge.

    So the strain of keeping to the rules will be met by spending restraint. Nigel Farage can promise the moon on a stick. Sir Ed Davey can oppose every tax rise while bemoaning every spending curb. They enjoy the luxurious privilege of being opposition leaders many years ahead of a general election. For the residents of Downing Street, there is no magic money tree.

    VAT and NI are both ridiculous taxes. They are also both very bad for business.

    The better solution, although it would mean an awful lot of short term squealing from pensioners in particular, would be to finally merge NI and income tax and charge everyone the same rate of it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,451
    "It backs a resurgence in shipbuilding, with the Royal Navy wanting to increase the number of destroyers and frigates to 25, up from 14 now."

    I'll wait for the small print, but about fucking time.

    That's been obvious for nearly 20 years.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,539

    carnforth said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq69vqpp2l4o

    First leak from Defence Review

    "UK government to spend £1.5bn on six new weapons factories"

    Very sensible, if true.

    The defence industry needs reindustrialising.
    Sadly they're in Mauritius.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,901

    betting Post

    F1: in a super-exciting bet, I've backed the McLarens and Verstappen to form the podium, at 2.2. Potential for Russell to spoil that but it's going to be bright and sunny and the Mercedes tends to prefer the cold.

    https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/06/spanish-grand-prix-2025-pre-race.html

    I wonder if Liam Lawson has permitted himself a wry smile at Tsunoda's performance, or whether he just feels very sorry for him.
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