Does Farage know that 'working people' tend not to vote as often as non-proles.
You can leaflet them to death, and they still won't get out on polling day.
Trump has proved that irregular voting working class people will show up to vote when they are sufficiently motivated.
I think Farage will be equally successful in getting quite a lot of turnout from people who haven't voted before.
Precisely my point when all they realistically had was lab/con/ld all of whom were going to from experience make their lives worse why bother voting. Now they have a party that is at least seeming to listen to them and is likely to get a more than a paltry percentage I think they will turn out in droves, probably most won't even think he will make their lives better but there is a slight hope he will. Whereas a vote for lab/ld/con is a definite vote for shit in my mouth and tell me you are making sure I am not hungry
Does Farage know that 'working people' tend not to vote as often as non-proles.
You can leaflet them to death, and they still won't get out on polling day.
Trump has proved that irregular voting working class people will show up to vote when they are sufficiently motivated.
I think Farage will be equally successful in getting quite a lot of turnout from people who haven't voted before.
Precisely my point when all they realistically had was lab/con/ld all of whom were going to from experience make their lives worse why bother voting. Now they have a party that is at least seeming to listen to them and is likely to get a more than a paltry percentage I think they will turn out in droves, probably most won't even think he will make their lives better but there is a slight hope he will. Whereas a vote for lab/ld/con is a definite vote for shit in my mouth and tell me you are making sure I am not hungry
Means the usual 'overestimation of propensity to vote by the annoyed' mid term factors may not apply - i.e. Reform may be more immune to swingback
"Party of the working people" is not, I would suggest, talking about class - it's distinguishing those who work for a living vs those who do not.
Working class has changed enormously from the working class I grew up in. Used to mean effectively manual labour.
Always meant people employed but not in one of the professions and not at middle management or above to me
I thought any white collar employment was middle class.
No, office workers are not middle class at clerk or even junior management level. Not in my definition anyway!
They are certainly at least lower middle class
Fuck off and stop trying to put me in a box. I am me not some fucking statistic, so is everyone else. I have less in common with the work colleague sitting beside me that went from a nice middle class home to university to the same job as me than I do with someone who left home and school at 16 and worked as a brickie all their life
Manners wise you are certainly not middle class, I give you that
I can read between the lines, Thierry Henry is saying Tottenham Hotspur had the better season.
Arsenal great Thierry Henry has said that the club should have achieved more in the last three seasons under manager Mikel Arteta.
The Spaniard has managed Arsenal since December 2019 and won the FA Cup in his first season at the club. His side has been involved in the Premier League title race in each of the last three seasons, but have finished second on all three occasions.
Arsenal have also failed to reach a tournament final since the FA Cup victory.
"Party of the working people" is not, I would suggest, talking about class - it's distinguishing those who work for a living vs those who do not.
Working class has changed enormously from the working class I grew up in. Used to mean effectively manual labour.
Always meant people employed but not in one of the professions and not at middle management or above to me
I thought any white collar employment was middle class.
No, office workers are not middle class at clerk or even junior management level. Not in my definition anyway!
They are certainly at least lower middle class
Fuck off and stop trying to put me in a box. I am me not some fucking statistic, so is everyone else. I have less in common with the work colleague sitting beside me that went from a nice middle class home to university to the same job as me than I do with someone who left home and school at 16 and worked as a brickie all their life
Manners wise you are certainly not middle class, I give you that
Attitude wise you are definitely a patrician in your own mind even if most think you the tory stereotype....have you ever considered thinking for yourself rather than parroting the party line or is your ambition always to be the hollow man of politics
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Its not earning enough money its economising on your outgoings. Remember your neighbours are a cheap and renewable source of meat if you dont get found out
Anyway - late good morning and valid good afternoon, anyone.
On the header, this is another Labour communications problem, and the public not looking at Farage carefully enough.
The Govt are putting the Employment Rights Bill through Parliament, which is all about strengthening ... Workers' Rights. Farage voted afaics uniformly against it in about 10 votes.
Labour should be skewering him with that.
Also on the header, the thing that jumps out for me is the far more siloed nature of Reform support than the other parties.
Does Farage know that 'working people' tend not to vote as often as non-proles.
You can leaflet them to death, and they still won't get out on polling day.
Trump has proved that irregular voting working class people will show up to vote when they are sufficiently motivated.
I think Farage will be equally successful in getting quite a lot of turnout from people who haven't voted before.
Precisely my point when all they realistically had was lab/con/ld all of whom were going to from experience make their lives worse why bother voting. Now they have a party that is at least seeming to listen to them and is likely to get a more than a paltry percentage I think they will turn out in droves, probably most won't even think he will make their lives better but there is a slight hope he will. Whereas a vote for lab/ld/con is a definite vote for shit in my mouth and tell me you are making sure I am not hungry
Means the usual 'overestimation of propensity to vote by the annoyed' mid term factors may not apply - i.e. Reform may be more immune to swingback
Also, that Reform's actual support might be under-estimated by current polling.
Trump's actual vote has always been under-estimated by many pollsters. Yougov's last poll before the 2024 election showed Harris 49%, Trump 47%, that is a 3% under-estimation of Trump.
If the same pattern holds for the UK, then maybe 1 to 3 points needs to added to Reform's current polling numbers.
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Its not earning enough money its economising on your outgoings. Remember your neighbours are a cheap and renewable source of meat if you dont get found out
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Its not earning enough money its economising on your outgoings. Remember your neighbours are a cheap and renewable source of meat if you dont get found out
How often do you plan to eat?
I would estimate the average neighbour would fill you meat needs for at least 6 months if you eat say a single pound of meat a day
"Badenoch might as well hand in her resignation and let Johnson stand as the Conservative candidate in a by-election. His arrival in the Commons would almost immediately result in her fall."
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Its not earning enough money its economising on your outgoings. Remember your neighbours are a cheap and renewable source of meat if you dont get found out
How often do you plan to eat?
I would estimate the average neighbour would fill you meat needs for at least 6 months if you eat say a single pound of meat a day
This might mean something else on other internet comment forums..
Does Farage know that 'working people' tend not to vote as often as non-proles.
You can leaflet them to death, and they still won't get out on polling day.
Trump has proved that irregular voting working class people will show up to vote when they are sufficiently motivated.
I think Farage will be equally successful in getting quite a lot of turnout from people who haven't voted before.
Precisely my point when all they realistically had was lab/con/ld all of whom were going to from experience make their lives worse why bother voting. Now they have a party that is at least seeming to listen to them and is likely to get a more than a paltry percentage I think they will turn out in droves, probably most won't even think he will make their lives better but there is a slight hope he will. Whereas a vote for lab/ld/con is a definite vote for shit in my mouth and tell me you are making sure I am not hungry
Means the usual 'overestimation of propensity to vote by the annoyed' mid term factors may not apply - i.e. Reform may be more immune to swingback
Also, that Reform's actual support might be under-estimated by current polling.
Trump's actual vote has always been under-estimated by many pollsters. Yougov's last poll before the 2024 election showed Harris 49%, Trump 47%, that is a 3% under-estimation of Trump.
If the same pattern holds for the UK, then maybe 1 to 3 points needs to added to Reform's current polling numbers.
Yougov's last UK poll before the last GE by contrast had Reform on 17%, a 3% overestimation. Their final MRP poll had it a bit closer to the actual result but Reform still 1% overestimated at 15%.
Trump by contrast will have had some silent traditional Republicans who were slightly embarassed at saying to pollsters they would be voting for the GOP candidate their party nominated (most of whom would probably have been Haley primary voters and Tories here)
Does Farage know that 'working people' tend not to vote as often as non-proles.
You can leaflet them to death, and they still won't get out on polling day.
Trump has proved that irregular voting working class people will show up to vote when they are sufficiently motivated.
I think Farage will be equally successful in getting quite a lot of turnout from people who haven't voted before.
Precisely my point when all they realistically had was lab/con/ld all of whom were going to from experience make their lives worse why bother voting. Now they have a party that is at least seeming to listen to them and is likely to get a more than a paltry percentage I think they will turn out in droves, probably most won't even think he will make their lives better but there is a slight hope he will. Whereas a vote for lab/ld/con is a definite vote for shit in my mouth and tell me you are making sure I am not hungry
Means the usual 'overestimation of propensity to vote by the annoyed' mid term factors may not apply - i.e. Reform may be more immune to swingback
Also, that Reform's actual support might be under-estimated by current polling.
Trump's actual vote has always been under-estimated by many pollsters. Yougov's last poll before the 2024 election showed Harris 49%, Trump 47%, that is a 3% under-estimation of Trump.
If the same pattern holds for the UK, then maybe 1 to 3 points needs to added to Reform's current polling numbers.
Find out Nows Mayoral polling gives some guide here. It was pretty accurate, it underestimated Jenkyns by 1% had Reform 3% too high in Hull and West of England and spot on in Peterborough. The polling seems roughly accurate at the moment.
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Its not earning enough money its economising on your outgoings. Remember your neighbours are a cheap and renewable source of meat if you dont get found out
How often do you plan to eat?
I would estimate the average neighbour would fill you meat needs for at least 6 months if you eat say a single pound of meat a day
This might mean something else on other internet comment forums..
Well I dont frequent "those" type of forums fortunately so will bow to your knowledge
"Badenoch might as well hand in her resignation and let Johnson stand as the Conservative candidate in a by-election. His arrival in the Commons would almost immediately result in her fall."
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Being fortunate enough to have been born in an era of affordable housing, or fortunate enough to have parents who helped you onto the ladder.
Though I wouldn't want to retire in my early 50s, I'd be bored shitless. As much as I enjoy my holidays from work and weekends etc I do enjoy the routine of having stuff to do.
"Badenoch might as well hand in her resignation and let Johnson stand as the Conservative candidate in a by-election. His arrival in the Commons would almost immediately result in her fall."
"Badenoch might as well hand in her resignation and let Johnson stand as the Conservative candidate in a by-election. His arrival in the Commons would almost immediately result in her fall."
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Being fortunate enough to have been born in an era of affordable housing, or fortunate enough to have parents who helped you onto the ladder.
Though I wouldn't want to retire in my early 50s, I'd be bored shitless. As much as I enjoy my holidays from work and weekends etc I do enjoy the routine of having stuff to do.
I reckon I'd find things that didn't bore me shitless but weren't the corporate grindstone.
"Badenoch might as well hand in her resignation and let Johnson stand as the Conservative candidate in a by-election. His arrival in the Commons would almost immediately result in her fall."
"Badenoch might as well hand in her resignation and let Johnson stand as the Conservative candidate in a by-election. His arrival in the Commons would almost immediately result in her fall."
Erm...isn't that why she isn't going to let him stand as a by-election candidate?
They need a by election in a winnable seat. There aren’t that many to choose from, assuming one came up.
Johnson won't do it anyway, he won't risk the shame of losing. He can win a seat at a GE no problems but with the media circus and tactical voting at a by election in can't see him risking it
"Badenoch might as well hand in her resignation and let Johnson stand as the Conservative candidate in a by-election. His arrival in the Commons would almost immediately result in her fall."
Does Farage know that 'working people' tend not to vote as often as non-proles.
You can leaflet them to death, and they still won't get out on polling day.
Trump has proved that irregular voting working class people will show up to vote when they are sufficiently motivated.
I think Farage will be equally successful in getting quite a lot of turnout from people who haven't voted before.
Precisely my point when all they realistically had was lab/con/ld all of whom were going to from experience make their lives worse why bother voting. Now they have a party that is at least seeming to listen to them and is likely to get a more than a paltry percentage I think they will turn out in droves, probably most won't even think he will make their lives better but there is a slight hope he will. Whereas a vote for lab/ld/con is a definite vote for shit in my mouth and tell me you are making sure I am not hungry
Means the usual 'overestimation of propensity to vote by the annoyed' mid term factors may not apply - i.e. Reform may be more immune to swingback
Also, that Reform's actual support might be under-estimated by current polling.
Trump's actual vote has always been under-estimated by many pollsters. Yougov's last poll before the 2024 election showed Harris 49%, Trump 47%, that is a 3% under-estimation of Trump.
If the same pattern holds for the UK, then maybe 1 to 3 points needs to added to Reform's current polling numbers.
Yougov's last UK poll before the last GE by contrast had Reform on 17%, a 3% overestimation. Their final MRP poll had it a bit closer to the actual result but Reform still 1% overestimated at 15%.
Trump by contrast will have had some silent traditional Republicans who were slightly embarassed at saying to pollsters they would be voting for the GOP candidate their party nominated (most of whom would probably have been Haley primary voters and Tories here)
They got 15% to the nearest whole percentage in Britain.
I just had lunch with a former colleague who is now head of a public sector quango. He is, or was for the 25 years I've known him anyway, a man of few discernible political opinions, and the few one can discern are centrist and non-controversial.
To my astonishment, more or less as soon as we sat down, he launched a scathing attack on the current government, in particular the big NI rise, which had forced him to cut staff and the endless pandering to the Net Zero mob, which complicated his job in other ways. He said he wished SKS's policies had been scrutinised before the election so people could have seen how they didn't add up. I haven't been this surprised by a friend's politics since my former university friend, who I remember selling the Socialist Worker, told me that the atmosphere on his campus was much too woke even for him.
Anyway, my point is, centrist public sector quangocrats should be a natural constituency for our centrist, public sector quangocrat PM. If Starmer is losing them (based on this sample of one), he really IS in trouble.
Although watching Ric Flair and Hulk Hogan pretending to punch each other is not to most people on PB’s cup of tea (I love it) this is possibly impactful on the Presidency given VKM’s wife is the Education Secretary and was high up in the Company and VKM’s Co defendant has turned on him in the sex trafficking case.
I did find it odd she was just flagged through given this was hanging in the air. Could this bite Trump ?
I just had lunch with a former colleague who is now head of a public sector quango. He is, or was for the 25 years I've known him anyway, a man of few discernible political opinions, and the few one can discern are centrist and non-controversial.
To my astonishment, more or less as soon as we sat down, he launched a scathing attack on the current government, in particular the big NI rise, which had forced him to cut staff and the endless pandering to the Net Zero mob, which complicated his job in other ways. He said he wished SKS's policies had been scrutinised before the election so people could have seen how they didn't add up. I haven't been this surprised by a friend's politics since my former university friend, who I remember selling the Socialist Worker, told me that the atmosphere on his campus was much too woke even for him.
Anyway, my point is, centrist public sector quangocrats should be a natural constituency for our centrist, public sector quangocrat PM. If Starmer is losing them (based on this sample of one), he really IS in trouble.
Conclusion In conclusion, our study suggests an increased hazard of lymphoma and skin cancers among tattooed individuals, demonstrated through two designs: a twin cohort and a case-cotwin study. We are concerned that tattoo ink interacting with surrounding cells may have severe consequences. Studies that pinpoint the etiological pathway of tattoo ink induced carcinogenesis are recommended to benefit public health.
You mean injecting random chemicals of dubious provenance into the skin, where they stay for decades, is bad for the skin?
Conclusion In conclusion, our study suggests an increased hazard of lymphoma and skin cancers among tattooed individuals, demonstrated through two designs: a twin cohort and a case-cotwin study. We are concerned that tattoo ink interacting with surrounding cells may have severe consequences. Studies that pinpoint the etiological pathway of tattoo ink induced carcinogenesis are recommended to benefit public health.
You mean injecting random chemicals of dubious provenance into the skin, where they stay for decades, is bad for the skin?
I just had lunch with a former colleague who is now head of a public sector quango. He is, or was for the 25 years I've known him anyway, a man of few discernible political opinions, and the few one can discern are centrist and non-controversial.
To my astonishment, more or less as soon as we sat down, he launched a scathing attack on the current government, in particular the big NI rise, which had forced him to cut staff and the endless pandering to the Net Zero mob, which complicated his job in other ways. He said he wished SKS's policies had been scrutinised before the election so people could have seen how they didn't add up. I haven't been this surprised by a friend's politics since my former university friend, who I remember selling the Socialist Worker, told me that the atmosphere on his campus was much too woke even for him.
Anyway, my point is, centrist public sector quangocrats should be a natural constituency for our centrist, public sector quangocrat PM. If Starmer is losing them (based on this sample of one), he really IS in trouble.
The lanyard class are lost? Yikes.
Quangocrats of the world unite. You have nothing to lose but your lanyards.
I just had lunch with a former colleague who is now head of a public sector quango. He is, or was for the 25 years I've known him anyway, a man of few discernible political opinions, and the few one can discern are centrist and non-controversial.
To my astonishment, more or less as soon as we sat down, he launched a scathing attack on the current government, in particular the big NI rise, which had forced him to cut staff and the endless pandering to the Net Zero mob, which complicated his job in other ways. He said he wished SKS's policies had been scrutinised before the election so people could have seen how they didn't add up. I haven't been this surprised by a friend's politics since my former university friend, who I remember selling the Socialist Worker, told me that the atmosphere on his campus was much too woke even for him.
Anyway, my point is, centrist public sector quangocrats should be a natural constituency for our centrist, public sector quangocrat PM. If Starmer is losing them (based on this sample of one), he really IS in trouble.
The lanyard class are lost? Yikes.
He has no constituency left. Its 2009 Euro elections in Cornwall territory for Keir - sixth behind Mebyon Kernow
Conclusion In conclusion, our study suggests an increased hazard of lymphoma and skin cancers among tattooed individuals, demonstrated through two designs: a twin cohort and a case-cotwin study. We are concerned that tattoo ink interacting with surrounding cells may have severe consequences. Studies that pinpoint the etiological pathway of tattoo ink induced carcinogenesis are recommended to benefit public health.
You mean injecting random chemicals of dubious provenance into the skin, where they stay for decades, is bad for the skin?
Crazy talk
Look at it this way, the way I do and used to cause regular rows with my doctor
A) you are going to die someday B ) you can do all these things to prolong your life, eat healthy, exercise, moderate your alcohol and drug intake, dont put chemicals under your skin your chances of living to 90 increase radically
or you can ignore all of B and probably only live till 75 - 80
However take route B yes on average you will live longer but the chances of having dementia/having to have someone wipe your bum for that decade also increase significantly
I prefer not to take option B and hopefully die compis mentis without someone wiping my arse for a decade personally
Each person should make their own choice I do think the medical people however only ever present the you can live till 90 side as if its all upside without pointing out your chances of either mental or physical infirmity for the last few years increases significantly
I just had lunch with a former colleague who is now head of a public sector quango. He is, or was for the 25 years I've known him anyway, a man of few discernible political opinions, and the few one can discern are centrist and non-controversial.
To my astonishment, more or less as soon as we sat down, he launched a scathing attack on the current government, in particular the big NI rise, which had forced him to cut staff and the endless pandering to the Net Zero mob, which complicated his job in other ways. He said he wished SKS's policies had been scrutinised before the election so people could have seen how they didn't add up. I haven't been this surprised by a friend's politics since my former university friend, who I remember selling the Socialist Worker, told me that the atmosphere on his campus was much too woke even for him.
Anyway, my point is, centrist public sector quangocrats should be a natural constituency for our centrist, public sector quangocrat PM. If Starmer is losing them (based on this sample of one), he really IS in trouble.
Interesting anecdote but we need to see polling to find out whether it's a significant opinion with this type of voter.
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Being fortunate enough to have been born in an era of affordable housing, or fortunate enough to have parents who helped you onto the ladder.
Though I wouldn't want to retire in my early 50s, I'd be bored shitless. As much as I enjoy my holidays from work and weekends etc I do enjoy the routine of having stuff to do.
I reckon I'd find things that didn't bore me shitless but weren't the corporate grindstone.
I just had lunch with a former colleague who is now head of a public sector quango. He is, or was for the 25 years I've known him anyway, a man of few discernible political opinions, and the few one can discern are centrist and non-controversial.
To my astonishment, more or less as soon as we sat down, he launched a scathing attack on the current government, in particular the big NI rise, which had forced him to cut staff and the endless pandering to the Net Zero mob, which complicated his job in other ways. He said he wished SKS's policies had been scrutinised before the election so people could have seen how they didn't add up. I haven't been this surprised by a friend's politics since my former university friend, who I remember selling the Socialist Worker, told me that the atmosphere on his campus was much too woke even for him.
Anyway, my point is, centrist public sector quangocrats should be a natural constituency for our centrist, public sector quangocrat PM. If Starmer is losing them (based on this sample of one), he really IS in trouble.
Many people don't understand how damaging to smaller (and especially family-run) businesses the increase in NI was.
"Badenoch might as well hand in her resignation and let Johnson stand as the Conservative candidate in a by-election. His arrival in the Commons would almost immediately result in her fall."
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Being fortunate enough to have been born in an era of affordable housing, or fortunate enough to have parents who helped you onto the ladder.
Though I wouldn't want to retire in my early 50s, I'd be bored shitless. As much as I enjoy my holidays from work and weekends etc I do enjoy the routine of having stuff to do.
I reckon I'd find things that didn't bore me shitless but weren't the corporate grindstone.
You'd be on PB a whole lot more.
I spent far more time on here when I was working full time. Helping kill time during the day.
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Being fortunate enough to have been born in an era of affordable housing, or fortunate enough to have parents who helped you onto the ladder.
Though I wouldn't want to retire in my early 50s, I'd be bored shitless. As much as I enjoy my holidays from work and weekends etc I do enjoy the routine of having stuff to do.
I reckon I'd find things that didn't bore me shitless but weren't the corporate grindstone.
You'd be on PB a whole lot more.
I spent far more time on here when I was working full time. Helping kill time during the day.
Yup you need something to keep you awake in the pointless meetings so beloved of managers
I just had lunch with a former colleague who is now head of a public sector quango. He is, or was for the 25 years I've known him anyway, a man of few discernible political opinions, and the few one can discern are centrist and non-controversial.
To my astonishment, more or less as soon as we sat down, he launched a scathing attack on the current government, in particular the big NI rise, which had forced him to cut staff and the endless pandering to the Net Zero mob, which complicated his job in other ways. He said he wished SKS's policies had been scrutinised before the election so people could have seen how they didn't add up. I haven't been this surprised by a friend's politics since my former university friend, who I remember selling the Socialist Worker, told me that the atmosphere on his campus was much too woke even for him.
Anyway, my point is, centrist public sector quangocrats should be a natural constituency for our centrist, public sector quangocrat PM. If Starmer is losing them (based on this sample of one), he really IS in trouble.
Many people don't understand how damaging to smaller (and especially family-run) businesses the increase in NI was.
Was it 'marginally'?
It seems hard to think otherwise.
(Black Death - now that's damaging, NI crap. less so)
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Fundamentally it depends on how able you are to save and economise, what you want from life, and what you expect your working standard of living to entail.
Everyone’s different. A couple with professional jobs who have no children, maybe go on holidays in the UK or Europe once or twice a year and don’t spend a lot on clothes, cars or home improvements are going to be able to put a fair amount of money away if they want to. Other people find their spending grows to match their income, because they’ve worked hard for it and why not?
It’s what you want from life at the end of the day. Similarly some people have no great desire to give up work - they enjoy the purpose and the idea of being gainfully employed and being able to continue to provide. Others can’t wait to get out of the rat race at the first opportunity it is financially viable to do so.
I just had lunch with a former colleague who is now head of a public sector quango. He is, or was for the 25 years I've known him anyway, a man of few discernible political opinions, and the few one can discern are centrist and non-controversial.
To my astonishment, more or less as soon as we sat down, he launched a scathing attack on the current government, in particular the big NI rise, which had forced him to cut staff and the endless pandering to the Net Zero mob, which complicated his job in other ways. He said he wished SKS's policies had been scrutinised before the election so people could have seen how they didn't add up. I haven't been this surprised by a friend's politics since my former university friend, who I remember selling the Socialist Worker, told me that the atmosphere on his campus was much too woke even for him.
Anyway, my point is, centrist public sector quangocrats should be a natural constituency for our centrist, public sector quangocrat PM. If Starmer is losing them (based on this sample of one), he really IS in trouble.
Interesting anecdote but we need to see polling to find out whether it's a significant opinion with this type of voter.
The problem is this Government is clueless. Take for example their plan to shift responsibility for temporary workers to agencies.
There are about 100 good umbrella firms all of which you could easily regulate and tell agencies they need to pay workers through. Instead there will be 20,000 agencies many of which will be happy to pocket the PAYE tax due and run.
Now HMRC and the treasury know the issue and the money involved (it will be £bns) but management isn’t listening
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Fundamentally it depends on how able you are to save and economise, what you want from life, and what you expect your working standard of living to entail.
Everyone’s different. A couple with professional jobs who have no children, maybe go on holidays in the UK or Europe once or twice a year and don’t spend a lot on clothes, cars or home improvements are going to be able to put a fair amount of money away if they want to. Other people find their spending grows to match their income, because they’ve worked hard for it and why not?
It’s what you want from life at the end of the day. Similarly some people have no great desire to give up work - they enjoy the purpose and the idea of being gainfully employed and being able to continue to provide. Others can’t wait to get out of the rat race at the first opportunity it is financially viable to do so.
I stopped spending when I couldn't get any more Stihl dear into the garden shed. For others it's Gucci shoes.
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Being fortunate enough to have been born in an era of affordable housing, or fortunate enough to have parents who helped you onto the ladder.
Though I wouldn't want to retire in my early 50s, I'd be bored shitless. As much as I enjoy my holidays from work and weekends etc I do enjoy the routine of having stuff to do.
I reckon I'd find things that didn't bore me shitless but weren't the corporate grindstone.
You'd be on PB a whole lot more.
I spent far more time on here when I was working full time. Helping kill time during the day.
Yup you need something to keep you awake in the pointless meetings so beloved of managers
My old Manager would spend meetings trying to sort out tickets for Newcastle away games.
Conclusion In conclusion, our study suggests an increased hazard of lymphoma and skin cancers among tattooed individuals, demonstrated through two designs: a twin cohort and a case-cotwin study. We are concerned that tattoo ink interacting with surrounding cells may have severe consequences. Studies that pinpoint the etiological pathway of tattoo ink induced carcinogenesis are recommended to benefit public health.
You mean injecting random chemicals of dubious provenance into the skin, where they stay for decades, is bad for the skin?
Crazy talk
That or people with tattoos like to expose them to solar rays.
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Being fortunate enough to have been born in an era of affordable housing, or fortunate enough to have parents who helped you onto the ladder.
Though I wouldn't want to retire in my early 50s, I'd be bored shitless. As much as I enjoy my holidays from work and weekends etc I do enjoy the routine of having stuff to do.
I reckon I'd find things that didn't bore me shitless but weren't the corporate grindstone.
You'd be on PB a whole lot more.
I spent far more time on here when I was working full time. Helping kill time during the day.
Yup you need something to keep you awake in the pointless meetings so beloved of managers
My old Manager would spend meetings trying to sort out tickets for Newcastle away games.
A couple of years ago in the company I work for we had about 5 hours of meetings a fortnight....now we have about 8 hours a week, in a retrospective we complained about useless meetings taking up our time. The non ironic response was to schedule a meeting to talk about how to make meetings more useful to us
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Being fortunate enough to have been born in an era of affordable housing, or fortunate enough to have parents who helped you onto the ladder.
Though I wouldn't want to retire in my early 50s, I'd be bored shitless. As much as I enjoy my holidays from work and weekends etc I do enjoy the routine of having stuff to do.
I reckon I'd find things that didn't bore me shitless but weren't the corporate grindstone.
Conclusion In conclusion, our study suggests an increased hazard of lymphoma and skin cancers among tattooed individuals, demonstrated through two designs: a twin cohort and a case-cotwin study. We are concerned that tattoo ink interacting with surrounding cells may have severe consequences. Studies that pinpoint the etiological pathway of tattoo ink induced carcinogenesis are recommended to benefit public health.
You mean injecting random chemicals of dubious provenance into the skin, where they stay for decades, is bad for the skin?
Crazy talk
That or people with tattoos like to expose them to solar rays.
While I have tattoos on both arms, people have rarely seen them as they are both sides on my upper arms and I normally wear long sleeved shirts and am not a beach goer
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Fundamentally it depends on how able you are to save and economise, what you want from life, and what you expect your working standard of living to entail.
Everyone’s different. A couple with professional jobs who have no children, maybe go on holidays in the UK or Europe once or twice a year and don’t spend a lot on clothes, cars or home improvements are going to be able to put a fair amount of money away if they want to. Other people find their spending grows to match their income, because they’ve worked hard for it and why not?
It’s what you want from life at the end of the day. Similarly some people have no great desire to give up work - they enjoy the purpose and the idea of being gainfully employed and being able to continue to provide. Others can’t wait to get out of the rat race at the first opportunity it is financially viable to do so.
The spending increases to match (or slightly exceed) income bit is so important- see Jesus's story about building bigger barns.
For what it's worth, my top tip for mentally breaking that loop is to find a joyful reason to place yourself somewhere where nobody is spending much. For us, that was vicar school, but alternative places are available.
Conclusion In conclusion, our study suggests an increased hazard of lymphoma and skin cancers among tattooed individuals, demonstrated through two designs: a twin cohort and a case-cotwin study. We are concerned that tattoo ink interacting with surrounding cells may have severe consequences. Studies that pinpoint the etiological pathway of tattoo ink induced carcinogenesis are recommended to benefit public health.
You mean injecting random chemicals of dubious provenance into the skin, where they stay for decades, is bad for the skin?
Crazy talk
That or people with tattoos like to expose them to solar rays.
While I have tattoos on both arms, people have rarely seen them as they are both sides on my upper arms and I normally wear long sleeved shirts and am not a beach goer
Fair enough, although they do mention this in the study as a possible confounding factor.
Perhaps they could control for different positions (upper arm vs lower arm etc).
I just had lunch with a former colleague who is now head of a public sector quango. He is, or was for the 25 years I've known him anyway, a man of few discernible political opinions, and the few one can discern are centrist and non-controversial.
To my astonishment, more or less as soon as we sat down, he launched a scathing attack on the current government, in particular the big NI rise, which had forced him to cut staff and the endless pandering to the Net Zero mob, which complicated his job in other ways. He said he wished SKS's policies had been scrutinised before the election so people could have seen how they didn't add up. I haven't been this surprised by a friend's politics since my former university friend, who I remember selling the Socialist Worker, told me that the atmosphere on his campus was much too woke even for him.
Anyway, my point is, centrist public sector quangocrats should be a natural constituency for our centrist, public sector quangocrat PM. If Starmer is losing them (based on this sample of one), he really IS in trouble.
Many people don't understand how damaging to smaller (and especially family-run) businesses the increase in NI was.
On the contrary, the change was good for small family-run businesses due to the change in the employment allowance. Any business with 7* or fewer employees was better off.
It was large employers of minimum-wage staff who were hammered the most.
There seems to be quite a measure of central coordination telling Council leaders what to do from Reform HQ. Havinbg discovered that the DEI stuff that will be cut to save 10s of millions does npt in general exist, or are basic legal duties, it will be ... interesting. Is such instruction from a political party legal? I think that question has a complex answer.
One target everywhere seems to be working from home. I've no idea why they think this will change anything, other than they will need to reconfigure a lot of buildings.
- Andrea the Regional Mayor of Greater Lincs seems to be reverse ferreting with some alacrity, and may even have noticed that 10k jobs depend on renewable energy. - County Durham has, I think, the largest majority - so they may try radical things. I wonder what will happen to Durham's restricted entry to traffic zone, if still in place? That's the sort of symbol the counter-revolutionaries might assault. When it went in I seem to recall lots of frothing. - Notts (mine) will have problems with making everyone work from offices if they try, because the brand new ones are smaller. There are some noises about wanting to spend money on keeping County Hall, West Bridgford open. The last cost estimate I saw was £50m to stay there, compared to eventual ~£20m cost of the new offices in the centre of the county, rather than the extreme south. - The Hull & surrounding area Mayor seems to have vanished. He is a former boxer with a good reputation (as a boxer) but no experience. It has been put out that he is some kind of mascot, but that's not what a Regional Mayor is for. - Kent CC also sounds quite juicy.
My forecast: increased Trade Union Membership in Reform run Councils.
Does Farage know that 'working people' tend not to vote as often as non-proles.
You can leaflet them to death, and they still won't get out on polling day.
Trump has proved that irregular voting working class people will show up to vote when they are sufficiently motivated.
I think Farage will be equally successful in getting quite a lot of turnout from people who haven't voted before.
Precisely my point when all they realistically had was lab/con/ld all of whom were going to from experience make their lives worse why bother voting. Now they have a party that is at least seeming to listen to them and is likely to get a more than a paltry percentage I think they will turn out in droves, probably most won't even think he will make their lives better but there is a slight hope he will. Whereas a vote for lab/ld/con is a definite vote for shit in my mouth and tell me you are making sure I am not hungry
Means the usual 'overestimation of propensity to vote by the annoyed' mid term factors may not apply - i.e. Reform may be more immune to swingback
Also, that Reform's actual support might be under-estimated by current polling.
Trump's actual vote has always been under-estimated by many pollsters. Yougov's last poll before the 2024 election showed Harris 49%, Trump 47%, that is a 3% under-estimation of Trump.
If the same pattern holds for the UK, then maybe 1 to 3 points needs to added to Reform's current polling numbers.
Yougov's last UK poll before the last GE by contrast had Reform on 17%, a 3% overestimation. Their final MRP poll had it a bit closer to the actual result but Reform still 1% overestimated at 15%.
Trump by contrast will have had some silent traditional Republicans who were slightly embarassed at saying to pollsters they would be voting for the GOP candidate their party nominated (most of whom would probably have been Haley primary voters and Tories here)
It's possible that some UK Tories might also be similarly embarrassed about admitting that they're planning to vote Reform next time.
In the US election, Trump got an actual vote share which was at the upper end of the range of polls. (Atlas Intel & ActiVote predicted 50% for Trump.)
I think one could perhaps similarly assume that Reform are more likely to get a vote share at the upper end of the current range of polls.
Currently, Reform's vote share ranges from 29% (Yougov) to 32% (Find Out Now).
Reform could perhaps be expected to get an actual vote share which is close to 32% & not 29%.
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Being fortunate enough to have been born in an era of affordable housing, or fortunate enough to have parents who helped you onto the ladder.
Though I wouldn't want to retire in my early 50s, I'd be bored shitless. As much as I enjoy my holidays from work and weekends etc I do enjoy the routine of having stuff to do.
I reckon I'd find things that didn't bore me shitless but weren't the corporate grindstone.
IMO people retiring that early need a serious long-term volunteer role, such as restoring a local windmill or something equally significant.
I just had lunch with a former colleague who is now head of a public sector quango. He is, or was for the 25 years I've known him anyway, a man of few discernible political opinions, and the few one can discern are centrist and non-controversial.
To my astonishment, more or less as soon as we sat down, he launched a scathing attack on the current government, in particular the big NI rise, which had forced him to cut staff and the endless pandering to the Net Zero mob, which complicated his job in other ways. He said he wished SKS's policies had been scrutinised before the election so people could have seen how they didn't add up. I haven't been this surprised by a friend's politics since my former university friend, who I remember selling the Socialist Worker, told me that the atmosphere on his campus was much too woke even for him.
Anyway, my point is, centrist public sector quangocrats should be a natural constituency for our centrist, public sector quangocrat PM. If Starmer is losing them (based on this sample of one), he really IS in trouble.
Many people don't understand how damaging to smaller (and especially family-run) businesses the increase in NI was.
On the contrary, the change was good for small family-run businesses due to the change in the employment allowance. Any business with 7* or fewer employees was better off.
It was large employers of minimum-wage staff who were hammered the most.
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Being fortunate enough to have been born in an era of affordable housing, or fortunate enough to have parents who helped you onto the ladder.
Though I wouldn't want to retire in my early 50s, I'd be bored shitless. As much as I enjoy my holidays from work and weekends etc I do enjoy the routine of having stuff to do.
I reckon I'd find things that didn't bore me shitless but weren't the corporate grindstone.
You'd be on PB a whole lot more.
I spent far more time on here when I was working full time. Helping kill time during the day.
Yup you need something to keep you awake in the pointless meetings so beloved of managers
My old Manager would spend meetings trying to sort out tickets for Newcastle away games.
A couple of years ago in the company I work for we had about 5 hours of meetings a fortnight....now we have about 8 hours a week, in a retrospective we complained about useless meetings taking up our time. The non ironic response was to schedule a meeting to talk about how to make meetings more useful to us
When I gave up the corporate life we were having "stand up meetings" online at 9 every morning.
They took 60 minutes in many cases rather than the 5 minutes that would have been enough to be useful.
I'd lost the will to live by the end so it took a long time to get into the mood to do some actual work afterwards.
This must be one of the reasons why productivity is so low, surely. All the fun of employment is being managed out.
I could have kept going as I quite enjoyed the useful stuff when I could just get on with it but I just couldn't be arsed with all the management and corporate bull and didn't need the money.
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Be born in 1939, eight years in the Grenadier Guards, switch to the police for thirty and bingo. Currently approaching more time retired from the force than served…
(That’s my dad, sadly, not me!)
Or don’t have kids. Colleague at work retired in Jan mid fifties. No kids, both had good jobs.
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
There's a whole FIRE movement out there for you to discover! The secret is probably more controlling expenditure (alongside a high salary).
These days though your best bet is go get a job in Singapore, Dubai etc where taxes are very low... save a packet and then come back. Not a great model for the country but good for the individual.
Does Farage know that 'working people' tend not to vote as often as non-proles.
You can leaflet them to death, and they still won't get out on polling day.
Trump has proved that irregular voting working class people will show up to vote when they are sufficiently motivated.
I think Farage will be equally successful in getting quite a lot of turnout from people who haven't voted before.
Precisely my point when all they realistically had was lab/con/ld all of whom were going to from experience make their lives worse why bother voting. Now they have a party that is at least seeming to listen to them and is likely to get a more than a paltry percentage I think they will turn out in droves, probably most won't even think he will make their lives better but there is a slight hope he will. Whereas a vote for lab/ld/con is a definite vote for shit in my mouth and tell me you are making sure I am not hungry
Means the usual 'overestimation of propensity to vote by the annoyed' mid term factors may not apply - i.e. Reform may be more immune to swingback
Also, that Reform's actual support might be under-estimated by current polling.
Trump's actual vote has always been under-estimated by many pollsters. Yougov's last poll before the 2024 election showed Harris 49%, Trump 47%, that is a 3% under-estimation of Trump.
If the same pattern holds for the UK, then maybe 1 to 3 points needs to added to Reform's current polling numbers.
Yougov's last UK poll before the last GE by contrast had Reform on 17%, a 3% overestimation. Their final MRP poll had it a bit closer to the actual result but Reform still 1% overestimated at 15%.
Trump by contrast will have had some silent traditional Republicans who were slightly embarassed at saying to pollsters they would be voting for the GOP candidate their party nominated (most of whom would probably have been Haley primary voters and Tories here)
It's possible that some UK Tories might also be similarly embarrassed about admitting that they're planning to vote Reform next time.
In the US election, Trump got an actual vote share which was at the upper end of the range of polls. (Atlas Intel & ActiVote predicted 50% for Trump.)
I think one could perhaps similarly assume that Reform are more likely to get a vote share at the upper end of the current range of polls.
Currently, Reform's vote share ranges from 29% (Yougov) to 32% (Find Out Now).
Reform could perhaps be expected to get an actual vote share which is close to 32% & not 29%.
32% and Nigel Farage is PM of a minority govt in most outcomes (35 and its likely majority) 29% and it depends on the Con/Lab split but Reform likely largest Party.
Farages chance of being PM drops precipitously the more below 30% you go and disappears by the time they go under 25% is my rough analysis
Conclusion In conclusion, our study suggests an increased hazard of lymphoma and skin cancers among tattooed individuals, demonstrated through two designs: a twin cohort and a case-cotwin study. We are concerned that tattoo ink interacting with surrounding cells may have severe consequences. Studies that pinpoint the etiological pathway of tattoo ink induced carcinogenesis are recommended to benefit public health.
You mean injecting random chemicals of dubious provenance into the skin, where they stay for decades, is bad for the skin?
Crazy talk
Look at it this way, the way I do and used to cause regular rows with my doctor
A) you are going to die someday B ) you can do all these things to prolong your life, eat healthy, exercise, moderate your alcohol and drug intake, dont put chemicals under your skin your chances of living to 90 increase radically
or you can ignore all of B and probably only live till 75 - 80
However take route B yes on average you will live longer but the chances of having dementia/having to have someone wipe your bum for that decade also increase significantly
I prefer not to take option B and hopefully die compis mentis without someone wiping my arse for a decade personally
Each person should make their own choice I do think the medical people however only ever present the you can live till 90 side as if its all upside without pointing out your chances of either mental or physical infirmity for the last few years increases significantly
Pick your risks - skin cancer and lymphoma are fucked up ways to die. Involving long, painful decline.
Exactly the shit you don’t want.
The trick is to die, but be healthy up to the point that you just stop. My grandmother for example - 89, living in her own place (sheltered accommodation), they came in one morning… found her dressed for the day, sitting in her arm chair. Morning cup of tea going cold.
Or my father-in-law - 98, going up and down 4 flights of stairs in the house daily. One day, didn’t feel right. Hospital that evening, didn’t make it through the next day.
There seems to be quite a measure of central coordination telling Council leaders what to do from Reform HQ. Havinbg discovered that the DEI stuff that will be cut to save 10s of millions does npt in general exist, or are basic legal duties, it will be ... interesting. Is such instruction from a political party legal? I think that question has a complex answer.
One target everywhere seems to be working from home. I've no idea why they think this will change anything, other than they will need to reconfigure a lot of buildings.
- Andrea the Regional Mayor of Greater Lincs seems to be reverse ferreting with some alacrity, and may even have noticed that 10k jobs depend on renewable energy. - County Durham has, I think, the largest majority - so they may try radical things. I wonder what will happen to Durham's restricted entry to traffic zone, if still in place? That's the sort of symbol the counter-revolutionaries might assault. When it went in I seem to recall lots of frothing. - Notts (mine) will have problems with making everyone work from offices if they try, because the brand new ones are smaller. There are some noises about wanting to spend money on keeping County Hall, West Bridgford open. The last cost estimate I saw was £50m to stay there, compared to eventual ~£20m cost of the new offices in the centre of the county, rather than the extreme south. - The Hull & surrounding area Mayor seems to have vanished. He is a former boxer with a good reputation (as a boxer) but no experience. It has been put out that he is some kind of mascot, but that's not what a Regional Mayor is for. - Kent CC also sounds quite juicy.
My forecast: increased Trade Union Membership in Reform run Councils.
WFH will be an interesting one to watch. Whatever its demerits, it is cheaper than providing a load of desk space in County Hall. Do councils really want to spend money on that, especially in a context where lack of money is pouring in?
More generally, leaders of these councils have got significant mandates in their own names. If they are being expected to run as Farage franchises, how long until they say "thanks but no thanks"?
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Sell house down south, move somewhere nice up north. Profit.
Better still live and buy a house up north, find attractive young damsel who owns a house down south, marry her and get her to move north. Sell her house, pay off both mortgages and then some. Thus wife and I are mortgage free in our mid 30s.
We're contemplating another mortgage, but only need to borrow about £100k to trade up from a 3 bed ex-council house to a rural 4-5 bed detached cottage sort of thing - I'd hope to pay it off in under 10 years.
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Being fortunate enough to have been born in an era of affordable housing, or fortunate enough to have parents who helped you onto the ladder.
Though I wouldn't want to retire in my early 50s, I'd be bored shitless. As much as I enjoy my holidays from work and weekends etc I do enjoy the routine of having stuff to do.
I reckon I'd find things that didn't bore me shitless but weren't the corporate grindstone.
You'd be on PB a whole lot more.
I spent far more time on here when I was working full time. Helping kill time during the day.
Yup you need something to keep you awake in the pointless meetings so beloved of managers
My old Manager would spend meetings trying to sort out tickets for Newcastle away games.
A couple of years ago in the company I work for we had about 5 hours of meetings a fortnight....now we have about 8 hours a week, in a retrospective we complained about useless meetings taking up our time. The non ironic response was to schedule a meeting to talk about how to make meetings more useful to us
When I gave up the corporate life we were having "stand up meetings" online at 9 every morning.
They took 60 minutes in many cases rather than the 5 minutes that would have been enough to be useful.
I'd lost the will to live by the end so it took a long time to get into the mood to do some actual work afterwards.
This must be one of the reasons why productivity is so low, surely. All the fun of employment is being managed out.
I could have kept going as I quite enjoyed the useful stuff when I could just get on with it but I just couldn't be arsed with all the management and corporate bull and didn't need the money.
Definitely haven't got bored yet...
Yes, I moved a few years ago to an organization that has way way less bureaucracy and it is uplifting and liberating. I spend almost all of my day doing things I think help our organization and mission, not the enormous levels of daft stuff I had to wade through.
I just had lunch with a former colleague who is now head of a public sector quango. He is, or was for the 25 years I've known him anyway, a man of few discernible political opinions, and the few one can discern are centrist and non-controversial.
To my astonishment, more or less as soon as we sat down, he launched a scathing attack on the current government, in particular the big NI rise, which had forced him to cut staff and the endless pandering to the Net Zero mob, which complicated his job in other ways. He said he wished SKS's policies had been scrutinised before the election so people could have seen how they didn't add up. I haven't been this surprised by a friend's politics since my former university friend, who I remember selling the Socialist Worker, told me that the atmosphere on his campus was much too woke even for him.
Anyway, my point is, centrist public sector quangocrats should be a natural constituency for our centrist, public sector quangocrat PM. If Starmer is losing them (based on this sample of one), he really IS in trouble.
Many people don't understand how damaging to smaller (and especially family-run) businesses the increase in NI was.
On the contrary, the change was good for small family-run businesses due to the change in the employment allowance. Any business with 7* or fewer employees was better off.
It was large employers of minimum-wage staff who were hammered the most.
*from memory.
Not anecdotally amongst my circle it wasn't.
It's quite complicated and there are eligibility criteria for it, but for most small businesses it will have either meant a tax cut or a significant mitigation. They've doubled it from £5000 to £10,500, so you'd have to have a reasonable NICs bill before the overall changes to NICs becomes a net negative.
My back-of-envelope was that about 2/3rds of businesses (with employees) will be better off, representing about 4 million workers in the smallest companies.
I just had lunch with a former colleague who is now head of a public sector quango. He is, or was for the 25 years I've known him anyway, a man of few discernible political opinions, and the few one can discern are centrist and non-controversial.
To my astonishment, more or less as soon as we sat down, he launched a scathing attack on the current government, in particular the big NI rise, which had forced him to cut staff and the endless pandering to the Net Zero mob, which complicated his job in other ways. He said he wished SKS's policies had been scrutinised before the election so people could have seen how they didn't add up. I haven't been this surprised by a friend's politics since my former university friend, who I remember selling the Socialist Worker, told me that the atmosphere on his campus was much too woke even for him.
Anyway, my point is, centrist public sector quangocrats should be a natural constituency for our centrist, public sector quangocrat PM. If Starmer is losing them (based on this sample of one), he really IS in trouble.
In the 2024 General Election the voter who wanted to help elect a government had good reason to avoid voting Tory. In most seats (eg mine) the LDs were not a winning option. There were and are reasons for not voting Reform. This left Labour as the remaining option.
So it makes no difference that Labour's policies didn't add up. Of course they didn't add up. They had an election to win in the teeth of the great British public. (The same was true of the Tory party, and of course Reform.)
Those who lent their vote to Labour (and I would do the same tomorrow, through gritted teeth) knew perfectly well that our hope was that they had a cunning plan, and that they would find an excuse - plenty were lying around - to tax sensibly, and that they were fairly moral and fairly competent.
Interesting that Reform are now polling at about where the three parties were all polling after the Cleggasm debate but the others trail as the 60% has to be split three ways not 2. Very difficult to see any party breaking 35 in the near future!
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Sell house down south, move somewhere nice up north. Profit.
Better still live and buy a house up north, find attractive young damsel who owns a house down south, marry her and get her to move north. Sell her house, pay off both mortgages and then some. Thus wife and I are mortgage free in our mid 30s.
We're contemplating another mortgage, but only need to borrow about £100k to trade up from a 3 bed ex-council house to a rural 4-5 bed detached cottage sort of thing - I'd hope to pay it off in under 10 years.
Can I apply for your scheme if I am already married?
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Being fortunate enough to have been born in an era of affordable housing, or fortunate enough to have parents who helped you onto the ladder.
Though I wouldn't want to retire in my early 50s, I'd be bored shitless. As much as I enjoy my holidays from work and weekends etc I do enjoy the routine of having stuff to do.
I reckon I'd find things that didn't bore me shitless but weren't the corporate grindstone.
IMO people retiring that early need a serious long-term volunteer role, such as restoring a local windmill or something equally significant.
Why? If I retired tomorrow I still have more than 24 hours of stuff I want to do in a day without volunteering for some shitty local windmill project
I just had lunch with a former colleague who is now head of a public sector quango. He is, or was for the 25 years I've known him anyway, a man of few discernible political opinions, and the few one can discern are centrist and non-controversial.
To my astonishment, more or less as soon as we sat down, he launched a scathing attack on the current government, in particular the big NI rise, which had forced him to cut staff and the endless pandering to the Net Zero mob, which complicated his job in other ways. He said he wished SKS's policies had been scrutinised before the election so people could have seen how they didn't add up. I haven't been this surprised by a friend's politics since my former university friend, who I remember selling the Socialist Worker, told me that the atmosphere on his campus was much too woke even for him.
Anyway, my point is, centrist public sector quangocrats should be a natural constituency for our centrist, public sector quangocrat PM. If Starmer is losing them (based on this sample of one), he really IS in trouble.
Many people don't understand how damaging to smaller (and especially family-run) businesses the increase in NI was.
On the contrary, the change was good for small family-run businesses due to the change in the employment allowance. Any business with 7* or fewer employees was better off.
It was large employers of minimum-wage staff who were hammered the most.
*from memory.
Not anecdotally amongst my circle it wasn't.
It's quite complicated and there are eligibility criteria for it, but for most small businesses it will have either meant a tax cut or a significant mitigation. They've doubled it from £5000 to £10,500, so you'd have to have a reasonable NICs bill before the overall changes to NICs becomes a net negative.
My back-of-envelope was that about 2/3rds of businesses (with employees) will be better off, representing about 4 million workers in the smallest companies.
Are you however taking into account that a lot of employees they never had to pay ni for before they now do as the amount they can earn before employer ni has dropped from 9100 to 5000
- The Hull & surrounding area Mayor seems to have vanished. He is a former boxer with a good reputation (as a boxer) but no experience. It has been put out that he is some kind of mascot, but that's not what a Regional Mayor is for.
He seemed quite flabbergasted in one interview he was going to have to be part of setting up how the whole thing operates going forward as a new position I'm not sure if he thought it just involved cutting ribbons but I'm sure they'll impose some sort of minder on him to keep him on track
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Being fortunate enough to have been born in an era of affordable housing, or fortunate enough to have parents who helped you onto the ladder.
Though I wouldn't want to retire in my early 50s, I'd be bored shitless. As much as I enjoy my holidays from work and weekends etc I do enjoy the routine of having stuff to do.
I reckon I'd find things that didn't bore me shitless but weren't the corporate grindstone.
IMO people retiring that early need a serious long-term volunteer role, such as restoring a local windmill or something equally significant.
Certainly my plan if I ever do finish early and I’m in good health is to do just that. Well, not windmills (I can’t say I would want it too significant) but things in the community, work with local animal rescues, wildlife projects etc. it would still be important for me to have a purpose, I’d just like it if my purpose was a bit different, and also give me some time to achieve some other ambitions.
I just had lunch with a former colleague who is now head of a public sector quango. He is, or was for the 25 years I've known him anyway, a man of few discernible political opinions, and the few one can discern are centrist and non-controversial.
To my astonishment, more or less as soon as we sat down, he launched a scathing attack on the current government, in particular the big NI rise, which had forced him to cut staff and the endless pandering to the Net Zero mob, which complicated his job in other ways. He said he wished SKS's policies had been scrutinised before the election so people could have seen how they didn't add up. I haven't been this surprised by a friend's politics since my former university friend, who I remember selling the Socialist Worker, told me that the atmosphere on his campus was much too woke even for him.
Anyway, my point is, centrist public sector quangocrats should be a natural constituency for our centrist, public sector quangocrat PM. If Starmer is losing them (based on this sample of one), he really IS in trouble.
Many people don't understand how damaging to smaller (and especially family-run) businesses the increase in NI was.
On the contrary, the change was good for small family-run businesses due to the change in the employment allowance. Any business with 7* or fewer employees was better off.
It was large employers of minimum-wage staff who were hammered the most.
*from memory.
Not anecdotally amongst my circle it wasn't.
It's quite complicated and there are eligibility criteria for it, but for most small businesses it will have either meant a tax cut or a significant mitigation. They've doubled it from £5000 to £10,500, so you'd have to have a reasonable NICs bill before the overall changes to NICs becomes a net negative.
My back-of-envelope was that about 2/3rds of businesses (with employees) will be better off, representing about 4 million workers in the smallest companies.
Are you however taking into account that a lot of employees they never had to pay ni for before they now do as the amount they can earn before employer ni has dropped from 9100 to 5000
Yes, it takes that into account. That additional cost is offset by the change in the allowance.
My dodgy assumption is that most small employers (fewer than 10 people) have lower average salaries that bigger ones. That's true to an extent, but I think my figure is an overestimate on that basis. Still, even if it's not true for all of the smallest businesses on an absolute basis, the budget was relatively better the smaller your business was.
(If Labour was any good at comms, they would have been shouting that from the rooftops).
I'd love to know the secret of earning enough money so you can afford to retire by your early to mid 50s.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Being fortunate enough to have been born in an era of affordable housing, or fortunate enough to have parents who helped you onto the ladder.
Though I wouldn't want to retire in my early 50s, I'd be bored shitless. As much as I enjoy my holidays from work and weekends etc I do enjoy the routine of having stuff to do.
I reckon I'd find things that didn't bore me shitless but weren't the corporate grindstone.
IMO people retiring that early need a serious long-term volunteer role, such as restoring a local windmill or something equally significant.
People can make their own decisions about things like this, they don't need to be lectured about it.
I just had lunch with a former colleague who is now head of a public sector quango. He is, or was for the 25 years I've known him anyway, a man of few discernible political opinions, and the few one can discern are centrist and non-controversial.
To my astonishment, more or less as soon as we sat down, he launched a scathing attack on the current government, in particular the big NI rise, which had forced him to cut staff and the endless pandering to the Net Zero mob, which complicated his job in other ways. He said he wished SKS's policies had been scrutinised before the election so people could have seen how they didn't add up. I haven't been this surprised by a friend's politics since my former university friend, who I remember selling the Socialist Worker, told me that the atmosphere on his campus was much too woke even for him.
Anyway, my point is, centrist public sector quangocrats should be a natural constituency for our centrist, public sector quangocrat PM. If Starmer is losing them (based on this sample of one), he really IS in trouble.
Many people don't understand how damaging to smaller (and especially family-run) businesses the increase in NI was.
On the contrary, the change was good for small family-run businesses due to the change in the employment allowance. Any business with 7* or fewer employees was better off.
It was large employers of minimum-wage staff who were hammered the most.
*from memory.
Not anecdotally amongst my circle it wasn't.
It's quite complicated and there are eligibility criteria for it, but for most small businesses it will have either meant a tax cut or a significant mitigation. They've doubled it from £5000 to £10,500, so you'd have to have a reasonable NICs bill before the overall changes to NICs becomes a net negative.
My back-of-envelope was that about 2/3rds of businesses (with employees) will be better off, representing about 4 million workers in the smallest companies.
Are you however taking into account that a lot of employees they never had to pay ni for before they now do as the amount they can earn before employer ni has dropped from 9100 to 5000
before this anyone on min wage could work 15 hours a week and not cost their employer ni
after this comes in and the increase in minimum wage any worker on min wage starts costing their employer ni at just under 8 hours
prediction is a lot will reduce part time worker hours from 16 to 8 and take on more part time workers.
I can see it now tesco's and the co op do a deal.... we have all these 16 hour a week workers, we will reduce their hours to 8 and they can come work for you 8 hours a week if you do the same with yours and hey both avoid that employer ni tax increase
- County Durham has, I think, the largest majority - so they may try radical things. I wonder what will happen to Durham's restricted entry to traffic zone, if still in place? That's the sort of symbol the counter-revolutionaries might assault. When it went in I seem to recall lots of frothing.
The thing with that restricted entry zone is that it's made the busiest part of Durham a pedestrian friendly area but still allows local residents to get to and from their houses / the school.
They may hate it but I suspect anyone in the area would hate the impact of it's removal far more. Especially when it grinds to a halt because you can't exactly have many cars on Cathedral Green and even now it's usually full
There seems to be quite a measure of central coordination telling Council leaders what to do from Reform HQ. Havinbg discovered that the DEI stuff that will be cut to save 10s of millions does npt in general exist, or are basic legal duties, it will be ... interesting. Is such instruction from a political party legal? I think that question has a complex answer.
One target everywhere seems to be working from home. I've no idea why they think this will change anything, other than they will need to reconfigure a lot of buildings.
- Andrea the Regional Mayor of Greater Lincs seems to be reverse ferreting with some alacrity, and may even have noticed that 10k jobs depend on renewable energy. - County Durham has, I think, the largest majority - so they may try radical things. I wonder what will happen to Durham's restricted entry to traffic zone, if still in place? That's the sort of symbol the counter-revolutionaries might assault. When it went in I seem to recall lots of frothing. - Notts (mine) will have problems with making everyone work from offices if they try, because the brand new ones are smaller. There are some noises about wanting to spend money on keeping County Hall, West Bridgford open. The last cost estimate I saw was £50m to stay there, compared to eventual ~£20m cost of the new offices in the centre of the county, rather than the extreme south. - The Hull & surrounding area Mayor seems to have vanished. He is a former boxer with a good reputation (as a boxer) but no experience. It has been put out that he is some kind of mascot, but that's not what a Regional Mayor is for. - Kent CC also sounds quite juicy.
My forecast: increased Trade Union Membership in Reform run Councils.
WFH will be an interesting one to watch. Whatever its demerits, it is cheaper than providing a load of desk space in County Hall. Do councils really want to spend money on that, especially in a context where lack of money is pouring in?
More generally, leaders of these councils have got significant mandates in their own names. If they are being expected to run as Farage franchises, how long until they say "thanks but no thanks"?
Can councils afford to buy back (and refurbish) the offices they've closed down. One look at your typical council budget will reveal that the very obvious answer is no chance...
Comments
I think Farage will be equally successful in getting quite a lot of turnout from people who haven't voted before.
My mortgage alone stretches to 62.
Arsenal great Thierry Henry has said that the club should have achieved more in the last three seasons under manager Mikel Arteta.
The Spaniard has managed Arsenal since December 2019 and won the FA Cup in his first season at the club. His side has been involved in the Premier League title race in each of the last three seasons, but have finished second on all three occasions.
Arsenal have also failed to reach a tournament final since the FA Cup victory.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6387603/2025/05/28/thierry-henry-mikel-arteta-arsenal/
Remember your neighbours are a cheap and renewable source of meat if you dont get found out
They got me on the property ladder before I was 22 and started my first job.
Over the last decade and more they've also saved me a fortune in childcare costs and other indirect costs.
Outgoings are very high because I pay for private school for two kids and lots of childcare/domestic help on top.
I could probably retire before 50 without kids.
On the header, this is another Labour communications problem, and the public not looking at Farage carefully enough.
The Govt are putting the Employment Rights Bill through Parliament, which is all about strengthening ... Workers' Rights. Farage voted afaics uniformly against it in about 10 votes.
Labour should be skewering him with that.
Also on the header, the thing that jumps out for me is the far more siloed nature of Reform support than the other parties.
Trump's actual vote has always been under-estimated by many pollsters. Yougov's last poll before the 2024 election showed Harris 49%, Trump 47%, that is a 3% under-estimation of Trump.
If the same pattern holds for the UK, then maybe 1 to 3 points needs to added to Reform's current polling numbers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=giZtjgXXfUA
"Badenoch might as well hand in her resignation and let Johnson stand as the Conservative candidate in a by-election. His arrival in the Commons would almost immediately result in her fall."
https://x.com/NewStatesman/status/1927696637654114765
Trump by contrast will have had some silent traditional Republicans who were slightly embarassed at saying to pollsters they would be voting for the GOP candidate their party nominated (most of whom would probably have been Haley primary voters and Tories here)
The polling seems roughly accurate at the moment.
Though I wouldn't want to retire in my early 50s, I'd be bored shitless. As much as I enjoy my holidays from work and weekends etc I do enjoy the routine of having stuff to do.
🔥 OMG - The #MUFC Open-Top Bus Parade is underway in #Malaysia 🇲🇾
Absolute scenes 🤣🤣🤣
https://x.com/AnfieldIndex/status/1927676866887880939
Meaning of life, the universe and everything.
· 4m
LONDON (AP) — British prosecutors say influencer brothers Andrew and Tristan Tate have been charged with rape.
Acyn
@Acyn
·
5m
Reporter: Do you still believe that Putin actually wants to end the war?
President Trump: I can't tell you that but I'll let you know in two weeks, within two weeks.
https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/13376050/asean-all-stars-1-0-man-utd-ruben-amorims-side-suffer-friendly-defeat-on-post-season-tour
I just had lunch with a former colleague who is now head of a public sector quango. He is, or was for the 25 years I've known him anyway, a man of few discernible political opinions, and the few one can discern are centrist and non-controversial.
To my astonishment, more or less as soon as we sat down, he launched a scathing attack on the current government, in particular the big NI rise, which had forced him to cut staff and the endless pandering to the Net Zero mob, which complicated his job in other ways. He said he wished SKS's policies had been scrutinised before the election so people could have seen how they didn't add up. I haven't been this surprised by a friend's politics since my former university friend, who I remember selling the Socialist Worker, told me that the atmosphere on his campus was much too woke even for him.
Anyway, my point is, centrist public sector quangocrats should be a natural constituency for our centrist, public sector quangocrat PM. If Starmer is losing them (based on this sample of one), he really IS in trouble.
I did find it odd she was just flagged through given this was hanging in the air. Could this bite Trump ?
https://www.postwrestling.com/2025/05/28/john-laurinaitis-dropped-as-defendant-in-janel-grant-lawsuit-against-wwe-and-vince-mcmahon/
Crazy talk
Its 2009 Euro elections in Cornwall territory for Keir - sixth behind Mebyon Kernow
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWTR9fdQ6ZY (15 mins)
A) you are going to die someday
B ) you can do all these things to prolong your life, eat healthy, exercise, moderate your alcohol and drug intake, dont put chemicals under your skin your chances of living to 90 increase radically
or you can ignore all of B and probably only live till 75 - 80
However take route B yes on average you will live longer but the chances of having dementia/having to have someone wipe your bum for that decade also increase significantly
I prefer not to take option B and hopefully die compis mentis without someone wiping my arse for a decade personally
Each person should make their own choice I do think the medical people however only ever present the you can live till 90 side as if its all upside without pointing out your chances of either mental or physical infirmity for the last few years increases significantly
It seems hard to think otherwise.
(Black Death - now that's damaging, NI crap. less so)
Everyone’s different. A couple with professional jobs who have no children, maybe go on holidays in the UK or Europe once or twice a year and don’t spend a lot on clothes, cars or home improvements are going to be able to put a fair amount of money away if they want to. Other people find their spending grows to match their income, because they’ve worked hard for it and why not?
It’s what you want from life at the end of the day. Similarly some people have no great desire to give up work - they enjoy the purpose and the idea of being gainfully employed and being able to continue to provide. Others can’t wait to get out of the rat race at the first opportunity it is financially viable to do so.
There are about 100 good umbrella firms all of which you could easily regulate and tell agencies they need to pay workers through. Instead there will be 20,000 agencies many of which will be happy to pocket the PAYE tax due and run.
Now HMRC and the treasury know the issue and the money involved (it will be £bns) but management isn’t listening
For what it's worth, my top tip for mentally breaking that loop is to find a joyful reason to place yourself somewhere where nobody is spending much. For us, that was vicar school, but alternative places are available.
Perhaps they could control for different positions (upper arm vs lower arm etc).
It was large employers of minimum-wage staff who were hammered the most.
*from memory.
There seems to be quite a measure of central coordination telling Council leaders what to do from Reform HQ. Havinbg discovered that the DEI stuff that will be cut to save 10s of millions does npt in general exist, or are basic legal duties, it will be ... interesting. Is such instruction from a political party legal? I think that question has a complex answer.
One target everywhere seems to be working from home. I've no idea why they think this will change anything, other than they will need to reconfigure a lot of buildings.
- Andrea the Regional Mayor of Greater Lincs seems to be reverse ferreting with some alacrity, and may even have noticed that 10k jobs depend on renewable energy.
- County Durham has, I think, the largest majority - so they may try radical things. I wonder what will happen to Durham's restricted entry to traffic zone, if still in place? That's the sort of symbol the counter-revolutionaries might assault. When it went in I seem to recall lots of frothing.
- Notts (mine) will have problems with making everyone work from offices if they try, because the brand new ones are smaller. There are some noises about wanting to spend money on keeping County Hall, West Bridgford open. The last cost estimate I saw was £50m to stay there, compared to eventual ~£20m cost of the new offices in the centre of the county, rather than the extreme south.
- The Hull & surrounding area Mayor seems to have vanished. He is a former boxer with a good reputation (as a boxer) but no experience. It has been put out that he is some kind of mascot, but that's not what a Regional Mayor is for.
- Kent CC also sounds quite juicy.
My forecast: increased Trade Union Membership in Reform run Councils.
In the US election, Trump got an actual vote share which was at the upper end of the range of polls. (Atlas Intel & ActiVote predicted 50% for Trump.)
I think one could perhaps similarly assume that Reform are more likely to get a vote share at the upper end of the current range of polls.
Currently, Reform's vote share ranges from 29% (Yougov) to 32% (Find Out Now).
Reform could perhaps be expected to get an actual vote share which is close to 32% & not 29%.
They took 60 minutes in many cases rather than the 5 minutes that would have been enough to be useful.
I'd lost the will to live by the end so it took a long time to get into the mood to do some actual work afterwards.
This must be one of the reasons why productivity is so low, surely. All the fun of employment is being managed out.
I could have kept going as I quite enjoyed the useful stuff when I could just get on with it but I just couldn't be arsed with all the management and corporate bull and didn't need the money.
Definitely haven't got bored yet...
(That’s my dad, sadly, not me!)
Or don’t have kids. Colleague at work retired in Jan mid fifties. No kids, both had good jobs.
The secret is probably more controlling expenditure (alongside a high salary).
These days though your best bet is go get a job in Singapore, Dubai etc where taxes are very low... save a packet and then come back. Not a great model for the country but good for the individual.
29% and it depends on the Con/Lab split but Reform likely largest Party.
Farages chance of being PM drops precipitously the more below 30% you go and disappears by the time they go under 25% is my rough analysis
Exactly the shit you don’t want.
The trick is to die, but be healthy up to the point that you just stop. My grandmother for example - 89, living in her own place (sheltered accommodation), they came in one morning… found her dressed for the day, sitting in her arm chair. Morning cup of tea going cold.
Or my father-in-law - 98, going up and down 4 flights of stairs in the house daily. One day, didn’t feel right. Hospital that evening, didn’t make it through the next day.
More generally, leaders of these councils have got significant mandates in their own names. If they are being expected to run as Farage franchises, how long until they say "thanks but no thanks"?
Better still live and buy a house up north, find attractive young damsel who owns a house down south, marry her and get her to move north. Sell her house, pay off both mortgages and then some. Thus wife and I are mortgage free in our mid 30s.
We're contemplating another mortgage, but only need to borrow about £100k to trade up from a 3 bed ex-council house to a rural 4-5 bed detached cottage sort of thing - I'd hope to pay it off in under 10 years.
My back-of-envelope was that about 2/3rds of businesses (with employees) will be better off, representing about 4 million workers in the smallest companies.
So it makes no difference that Labour's policies didn't add up. Of course they didn't add up. They had an election to win in the teeth of the great British public. (The same was true of the Tory party, and of course Reform.)
Those who lent their vote to Labour (and I would do the same tomorrow, through gritted teeth) knew perfectly well that our hope was that they had a cunning plan, and that they would find an excuse - plenty were lying around - to tax sensibly, and that they were fairly moral and fairly competent.
And yes, Starmer is in trouble.
I'm not sure if he thought it just involved cutting ribbons but I'm sure they'll impose some sort of minder on him to keep him on track
My dodgy assumption is that most small employers (fewer than 10 people) have lower average salaries that bigger ones. That's true to an extent, but I think my figure is an overestimate on that basis. Still, even if it's not true for all of the smallest businesses on an absolute basis, the budget was relatively better the smaller your business was.
(If Labour was any good at comms, they would have been shouting that from the rooftops).
after this comes in and the increase in minimum wage any worker on min wage starts costing their employer ni at just under 8 hours
prediction is a lot will reduce part time worker hours from 16 to 8 and take on more part time workers.
I can see it now tesco's and the co op do a deal.... we have all these 16 hour a week workers, we will reduce their hours to 8 and they can come work for you 8 hours a week if you do the same with yours and hey both avoid that employer ni tax increase
They may hate it but I suspect anyone in the area would hate the impact of it's removal far more. Especially when it grinds to a halt because you can't exactly have many cars on Cathedral Green and even now it's usually full