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Despite all the fury fewer than a third oppose the Chagos Islands deal – politicalbetting.com

24

Comments

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,684
    TimS said:

    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    FPT:

    Brown believed his own genius - hence 'ending (Tory) boom and bust'. The reality is that he inherited a booming economy and then decided to open the taps for reasons. Of course the sale of the gold is more complicated than it is sometimes portrayed, but his financial negligence around his OWN fiscal rules was shocking. And then you have the vast expansion of PFI (yes the Tories started it, but Brown went BIG). PFI took spending off the annual returns and inter the perpetual future. All those lightbulbs changed for 300 quid...

    On PFI I’m not fully behind the consensus that it was a disaster. A lot of the money spent was capex. If not for PFI, it would either have never been spent at all (and our public realm would be even more crumbling) or it would have been spent by necessity years later, at several times the price.

    There are plenty of examples of poor PFI deals, but there are always plenty of examples of poor infrastructure projects. We know from the story of HS2, nuclear power and multiple other infrastructure fails in recent decades that a problem postponed is a problem doubled. PFI was a rare example of JFDI.
    It got things done, this is true, but at an inflated cost.

    To me it illustrates well one of the golden rules of trading. If you can deal with a counterparty who is doing the trade for reasons other than pure £££ you're likely to be the winner.

    In this case the counterparty driven by non £££ considerations (being to keep debt off the books) was the government. So the other side - the private sector providers - were able to make hay.
    The replies from across the spectrum on this show how far PFI-as-failure has become embedded in the political mind. As with all things it contains some truth, but loses nuance.

    1. A number of PFI contractors went bust. They didn’t negotiate a very good deal with government
    2. The super-profits attributable to some of them came from a wheeze - a bad wheeze in hindsight - that had nothing to do with government contracting, but was a benefit of falling interest rates and refinancing
    3. Sure, we didn’t PFI some of our most pressing infrastructure projects, but nor did we build them, which brings me on to
    4. Those decrying PFI need to describe the realistic alternative history. And that alternative history is that the investment wasn’t made. Precisely because of the Treasury accounting that PFI circumvented.

    To have a credible alternative path for PFI you have to argue that government would have thrown out the usual bean counting orthodoxy and thought “to hell with it, let’s build those things”.
    Reeves is starting to throw out the orthodoxy but we should go much further and ahould bever have been in this position. We should count the value of houses and infrastructure we build not just the cost. Doing something inefficiently just so that it looks better on a treasury spreadsheet is daft.

    New Labour were too timid/infected with Thatcher mind virus that state could not and should not build, should contract everything out. As a result we underinvest.

    Report on housing along these lines here:
    https://bsky.app/profile/marleygmiller.bsky.social/post/3lptls4uvmk2m
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,417
    edited May 23

    A handsome guy on here yesterday said something like this.....
    Some won't care but those that hate this deal REALLY hate it.
    Exactly what this poll shows. Support is more likely lukewarm, opposition much fiercer with overall opposition more likely.
    Polling on issues does not of course give the full picture. In the aftermath of Truss budget the measures were almost all more supported than opposed and within a week and a half the Tories were 35 points adrift in the polls.
    After a day of coverage 1 in 5 strongly oppose the deal. Another scab to be picked at. One of many.
    Harman briefing openly against Starmer/WFA U turn, the Lab MP supporting Rupert over Lucy C, the obvious briefing war between Starmer and his own Chief of Staff. His desperate bonfire of deals, u turns, press releases, begging for support.......
    It's coming to a head. He's out soon. He'll make a year as PM (just)

    Labour's majority is 150-odd, maybe more, Labour has always had more backbench independence, and Labour does not have the mechanism Conservatives do to oust leaders, so that is three reasons Starmer is going nowhere. But I do think Starmer will choose to retire early à la Wilson.
    Oh indeed, the ousting is very tricky but he's clearly already desperate. Its not backbenchers/usual suspects, it's big beast ex front benchers like Harman, well loved characters within Labour like Diane, his own Chief of Staff. It smacks of a Brown 2009 mood and the McBride, Balls, Draper farrago and the later Purnell abortive coup. If they want him gone they will find the way. I fancy a surfeit of skeletons are available.

    I have been wrong before. This afternoon actually. Lolz
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,653
    David Cameron has lost a lot of weight. I hope that's because he's going for the Tory leadership again rather than something even worse.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,707
    Meanwhile, in "The moving finger writes" news, how many Cabinet ministers from 2010-2024 can you remember?

    https://www.sporcle.com/games/chemist_jack/cabinet-minister-2010-present

    I managed just over a third.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,625
    Lol, Forest have banned Gary Neville from the City Ground on Sunday.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,790
    OT is it my dodgy lug'oles or do the Microsoft Copilot adverts pronounce it "cop a lot"?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,341

    OT is it my dodgy lug'oles or do the Microsoft Copilot adverts pronounce it "cop a lot"?

    I've noticed a tendency for adverts to use AI-generated speech that becomes obvious when they mispronounce certain words phonetically.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,381
    edited May 23

    Jonathan Chait, Atlantic, tells Bulwark that Dems have real cultural problem in the party around old age and elected office holders hanging on into very old age and then frankly dying in office leaving vacancies. Seems the Trump bill might have been lost otherwise.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jj8iwJx9-AU

    Another old, cancer ridden Dem congressman died earlier this week.

    That's at least three so far this year.
    I always said I'd retire from full-time work at 65, and from part-time at 70. And I did, in spite of offers, pressure etc to go on.
    And I'm glad I did because, as well as having 5 years when I worked to my schedule, not anyone else's, I had about a dozen years where I was beholden to no-one, except of course, my wife.
    I always said I would retire at 65, which I did, and have had 16 years also beholden to no-one other than my wife of 61 years who has been amazingly patient

    In fact it was 16 years ago next week on the 31st May 2009
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,046

    geoffw said:

    Starmer's claque of Matrix Chambers lawyer pals - Hermer and Sands - cooked up the Chagos fiasco

    Yes but because of the way barristers' chambers are organised, being quite small and tending to specialise, that's not necessarily the gotcha it first appears. You'd quite often see both sides in a criminal trial or planning case from the same chambers, for instance.
    Why should you think it's meant to be a gotcha? The point is that Starmer has other m'learned friends trumping the national interest with faux legalism

  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,053

    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    FPT:

    Brown believed his own genius - hence 'ending (Tory) boom and bust'. The reality is that he inherited a booming economy and then decided to open the taps for reasons. Of course the sale of the gold is more complicated than it is sometimes portrayed, but his financial negligence around his OWN fiscal rules was shocking. And then you have the vast expansion of PFI (yes the Tories started it, but Brown went BIG). PFI took spending off the annual returns and inter the perpetual future. All those lightbulbs changed for 300 quid...

    On PFI I’m not fully behind the consensus that it was a disaster. A lot of the money spent was capex. If not for PFI, it would either have never been spent at all (and our public realm would be even more crumbling) or it would have been spent by necessity years later, at several times the price.

    There are plenty of examples of poor PFI deals, but there are always plenty of examples of poor infrastructure projects. We know from the story of HS2, nuclear power and multiple other infrastructure fails in recent decades that a problem postponed is a problem doubled. PFI was a rare example of JFDI.
    There was undoubtedly an overwhelming need for infrastructure investment.
    PFI was, in many instances, an unnecessary and expensive complication.
    That's not hindsight; it was clear at the time.

    And we failed on the big infrastructure stuff - nuclear and rail, for example - where putting off decisions cost an immense amount of money, and in the case of HS2, complete failure.
    Yes, there was a big row at the time with Ken Livingstone about how to pay for TfL investment. As Ken pointed out, governments can borrow more cheaply than the private sector.
    But private sector borrowing does not appear on the government's books.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,315

    A handsome guy on here yesterday said something like this.....
    Some won't care but those that hate this deal REALLY hate it.
    Exactly what this poll shows. Support is more likely lukewarm, opposition much fiercer with overall opposition more likely.
    Polling on issues does not of course give the full picture. In the aftermath of Truss budget the measures were almost all more supported than opposed and within a week and a half the Tories were 35 points adrift in the polls.
    After a day of coverage 1 in 5 strongly oppose the deal. Another scab to be picked at. One of many.
    Harman briefing openly against Starmer/WFA U turn, the Lab MP supporting Rupert over Lucy C, the obvious briefing war between Starmer and his own Chief of Staff. His desperate bonfire of deals, u turns, press releases, begging for support.......
    It's coming to a head. He's out soon. He'll make a year as PM (just)

    Labour's majority is 150-odd, maybe more, Labour has always had more backbench independence, and Labour does not have the mechanism Conservatives do to oust leaders, so that is three reasons Starmer is going nowhere. But I do think Starmer will choose to retire early à la Wilson.
    Oh indeed, the ousting is very tricky but he's clearly already desperate. Its not backbenchers/usual suspects, it's big beast ex front benchers like Harman, well loved characters within Labour like Diane, his own Chief of Staff. It smacks of a Brown 2009 mood and the McBride, Balls, Draper farrago and the later Purnell abortive coup. If they want him gone they will find the way. I fancy a surfeit of skeletons are available.

    I have been wrong before. This afternoon actually. Lolz
    I checked the betting on a 25 exit for SKS. It's shorter than I expected. 4/1.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,560
    Eabhal said:

    David Cameron has lost a lot of weight. I hope that's because he's going for the Tory leadership again rather than something even worse.

    What could be worse than the Tory leadership?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,315

    OT is it my dodgy lug'oles or do the Microsoft Copilot adverts pronounce it "cop a lot"?

    I've noticed a tendency for adverts to use AI-generated speech that becomes obvious when they mispronounce certain words phonetically.
    Same on my car sat nav. It's quite amusing at times.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,417
    kinabalu said:

    A handsome guy on here yesterday said something like this.....
    Some won't care but those that hate this deal REALLY hate it.
    Exactly what this poll shows. Support is more likely lukewarm, opposition much fiercer with overall opposition more likely.
    Polling on issues does not of course give the full picture. In the aftermath of Truss budget the measures were almost all more supported than opposed and within a week and a half the Tories were 35 points adrift in the polls.
    After a day of coverage 1 in 5 strongly oppose the deal. Another scab to be picked at. One of many.
    Harman briefing openly against Starmer/WFA U turn, the Lab MP supporting Rupert over Lucy C, the obvious briefing war between Starmer and his own Chief of Staff. His desperate bonfire of deals, u turns, press releases, begging for support.......
    It's coming to a head. He's out soon. He'll make a year as PM (just)

    Labour's majority is 150-odd, maybe more, Labour has always had more backbench independence, and Labour does not have the mechanism Conservatives do to oust leaders, so that is three reasons Starmer is going nowhere. But I do think Starmer will choose to retire early à la Wilson.
    Oh indeed, the ousting is very tricky but he's clearly already desperate. Its not backbenchers/usual suspects, it's big beast ex front benchers like Harman, well loved characters within Labour like Diane, his own Chief of Staff. It smacks of a Brown 2009 mood and the McBride, Balls, Draper farrago and the later Purnell abortive coup. If they want him gone they will find the way. I fancy a surfeit of skeletons are available.

    I have been wrong before. This afternoon actually. Lolz
    I checked the betting on a 25 exit for SKS. It's shorter than I expected. 4/1.
    Teetering on the rim like a teetery thing
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 926

    Meanwhile, in "The moving finger writes" news, how many Cabinet ministers from 2010-2024 can you remember?

    https://www.sporcle.com/games/chemist_jack/cabinet-minister-2010-present

    I managed just over a third.

    Really fun game. I got about 40% in the time limit. Wasted a lot of time trying to spell Thérèse Coffey
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,643
    FF43 said:

    The public should be allowed not to care about certain things.

    I don't care if they do or don't.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,006
    edited May 23
    TimS said:

    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    FPT:

    Brown believed his own genius - hence 'ending (Tory) boom and bust'. The reality is that he inherited a booming economy and then decided to open the taps for reasons. Of course the sale of the gold is more complicated than it is sometimes portrayed, but his financial negligence around his OWN fiscal rules was shocking. And then you have the vast expansion of PFI (yes the Tories started it, but Brown went BIG). PFI took spending off the annual returns and inter the perpetual future. All those lightbulbs changed for 300 quid...

    On PFI I’m not fully behind the consensus that it was a disaster. A lot of the money spent was capex. If not for PFI, it would either have never been spent at all (and our public realm would be even more crumbling) or it would have been spent by necessity years later, at several times the price.

    There are plenty of examples of poor PFI deals, but there are always plenty of examples of poor infrastructure projects. We know from the story of HS2, nuclear power and multiple other infrastructure fails in recent decades that a problem postponed is a problem doubled. PFI was a rare example of JFDI.
    It got things done, this is true, but at an inflated cost.

    To me it illustrates well one of the golden rules of trading. If you can deal with a counterparty who is doing the trade for reasons other than pure £££ you're likely to be the winner.

    In this case the counterparty driven by non £££ considerations (being to keep debt off the books) was the government. So the other side - the private sector providers - were able to make hay.
    The replies from across the spectrum on this show how far PFI-as-failure has become embedded in the political mind. As with all things it contains some truth, but loses nuance.

    1. A number of PFI contractors went bust. They didn’t negotiate a very good deal with government
    2. The super-profits attributable to some of them came from a wheeze - a bad wheeze in hindsight - that had nothing to do with government contracting, but was a benefit of falling interest rates and refinancing
    3. Sure, we didn’t PFI some of our most pressing infrastructure projects, but nor did we build them, which brings me on to
    4. Those decrying PFI need to describe the realistic alternative history. And that alternative history is that the investment wasn’t made. Precisely because of the Treasury accounting that PFI circumvented.

    To have a credible alternative path for PFI you have to argue that government would have thrown out the usual bean counting orthodoxy and thought “to hell with it, let’s build those things”.
    To have a credible alternative path for PFI you have to argue that government would have thrown out the usual bean counting orthodoxy and thought “to hell with it, let’s build those things”.

    This. But the the would needs to be should. If you decide something requires to be built you have to find the money for it from somewhere and there needs to be honesty about where it comes from. Don't disguise the cost in wasteful funding schemes but be transparent that improvements need to be paid for and this will come out of taxes.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,148

    Apparently David Cameron is going to work for DLA Piper I mean come on. It’s almost as bad as the Hill Dickinson Stadium.

    You should see Lord Cameron's fee on the lecture circuit.

    It'll be worth every penny that DLA Piper pay him.
    Lord Cameron opposed and tried to stop this terrible deal.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,417
    edited May 23
    Stereodog said:

    Meanwhile, in "The moving finger writes" news, how many Cabinet ministers from 2010-2024 can you remember?

    https://www.sporcle.com/games/chemist_jack/cabinet-minister-2010-present

    I managed just over a third.

    Really fun game. I got about 40% in the time limit. Wasted a lot of time trying to spell Thérèse Coffey
    You only need to put surnames in!
    131 for me, forgot some very obvious ones but got Shapps and Hancock in the last 10 secs lol
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,315

    kinabalu said:

    A handsome guy on here yesterday said something like this.....
    Some won't care but those that hate this deal REALLY hate it.
    Exactly what this poll shows. Support is more likely lukewarm, opposition much fiercer with overall opposition more likely.
    Polling on issues does not of course give the full picture. In the aftermath of Truss budget the measures were almost all more supported than opposed and within a week and a half the Tories were 35 points adrift in the polls.
    After a day of coverage 1 in 5 strongly oppose the deal. Another scab to be picked at. One of many.
    Harman briefing openly against Starmer/WFA U turn, the Lab MP supporting Rupert over Lucy C, the obvious briefing war between Starmer and his own Chief of Staff. His desperate bonfire of deals, u turns, press releases, begging for support.......
    It's coming to a head. He's out soon. He'll make a year as PM (just)

    Labour's majority is 150-odd, maybe more, Labour has always had more backbench independence, and Labour does not have the mechanism Conservatives do to oust leaders, so that is three reasons Starmer is going nowhere. But I do think Starmer will choose to retire early à la Wilson.
    Oh indeed, the ousting is very tricky but he's clearly already desperate. Its not backbenchers/usual suspects, it's big beast ex front benchers like Harman, well loved characters within Labour like Diane, his own Chief of Staff. It smacks of a Brown 2009 mood and the McBride, Balls, Draper farrago and the later Purnell abortive coup. If they want him gone they will find the way. I fancy a surfeit of skeletons are available.

    I have been wrong before. This afternoon actually. Lolz
    I checked the betting on a 25 exit for SKS. It's shorter than I expected. 4/1.
    Teetering on the rim like a teetery thing
    I don't get that impression. I'd more lay than back at that price. But let's see. If it happens I'll remember you predicted it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,148
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    It's up to the Tories to get it widely known that this going to cost taxpayers £30-50bn and our taxes will rise, 29% opposing will get a lot higher if they can do that.

    You're supposed to be good with numbers, Max.
    Don't exaggerate.
    All the Tories need to do is put it at a cost per household and extra tax for the next 99 years.

    In fact, it's astonishing they haven't already done it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,093

    Apparently David Cameron is going to work for DLA Piper I mean come on. It’s almost as bad as the Hill Dickinson Stadium.

    You should see Lord Cameron's fee on the lecture circuit.

    It'll be worth every penny that DLA Piper pay him.
    Lord Cameron opposed and tried to stop this terrible deal.
    Do you want to know what else David Cameron tried to oppose?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,417
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    A handsome guy on here yesterday said something like this.....
    Some won't care but those that hate this deal REALLY hate it.
    Exactly what this poll shows. Support is more likely lukewarm, opposition much fiercer with overall opposition more likely.
    Polling on issues does not of course give the full picture. In the aftermath of Truss budget the measures were almost all more supported than opposed and within a week and a half the Tories were 35 points adrift in the polls.
    After a day of coverage 1 in 5 strongly oppose the deal. Another scab to be picked at. One of many.
    Harman briefing openly against Starmer/WFA U turn, the Lab MP supporting Rupert over Lucy C, the obvious briefing war between Starmer and his own Chief of Staff. His desperate bonfire of deals, u turns, press releases, begging for support.......
    It's coming to a head. He's out soon. He'll make a year as PM (just)

    Labour's majority is 150-odd, maybe more, Labour has always had more backbench independence, and Labour does not have the mechanism Conservatives do to oust leaders, so that is three reasons Starmer is going nowhere. But I do think Starmer will choose to retire early à la Wilson.
    Oh indeed, the ousting is very tricky but he's clearly already desperate. Its not backbenchers/usual suspects, it's big beast ex front benchers like Harman, well loved characters within Labour like Diane, his own Chief of Staff. It smacks of a Brown 2009 mood and the McBride, Balls, Draper farrago and the later Purnell abortive coup. If they want him gone they will find the way. I fancy a surfeit of skeletons are available.

    I have been wrong before. This afternoon actually. Lolz
    I checked the betting on a 25 exit for SKS. It's shorter than I expected. 4/1.
    Teetering on the rim like a teetery thing
    I don't get that impression. I'd more lay than back at that price. But let's see. If it happens I'll remember you predicted it.
    If it doesn't please feel free to forget I predicted it. I won't be offended 😉
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,093
    tlg86 said:

    Lol, Forest have banned Gary Neville from the City Ground on Sunday.

    So will Sky make him go to Anfield and commentate on Liverpool lifting the title instead?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,417

    Apparently David Cameron is going to work for DLA Piper I mean come on. It’s almost as bad as the Hill Dickinson Stadium.

    You should see Lord Cameron's fee on the lecture circuit.

    It'll be worth every penny that DLA Piper pay him.
    Lord Cameron opposed and tried to stop this terrible deal.
    Do you want to know what else David Cameron tried to oppose?
    Having a personality?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,148

    I strongly doubt more than 10% of the UK population know a damn thing about the Chagos Islands.

    They know Starmer sold them up the river.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,315

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    A handsome guy on here yesterday said something like this.....
    Some won't care but those that hate this deal REALLY hate it.
    Exactly what this poll shows. Support is more likely lukewarm, opposition much fiercer with overall opposition more likely.
    Polling on issues does not of course give the full picture. In the aftermath of Truss budget the measures were almost all more supported than opposed and within a week and a half the Tories were 35 points adrift in the polls.
    After a day of coverage 1 in 5 strongly oppose the deal. Another scab to be picked at. One of many.
    Harman briefing openly against Starmer/WFA U turn, the Lab MP supporting Rupert over Lucy C, the obvious briefing war between Starmer and his own Chief of Staff. His desperate bonfire of deals, u turns, press releases, begging for support.......
    It's coming to a head. He's out soon. He'll make a year as PM (just)

    Labour's majority is 150-odd, maybe more, Labour has always had more backbench independence, and Labour does not have the mechanism Conservatives do to oust leaders, so that is three reasons Starmer is going nowhere. But I do think Starmer will choose to retire early à la Wilson.
    Oh indeed, the ousting is very tricky but he's clearly already desperate. Its not backbenchers/usual suspects, it's big beast ex front benchers like Harman, well loved characters within Labour like Diane, his own Chief of Staff. It smacks of a Brown 2009 mood and the McBride, Balls, Draper farrago and the later Purnell abortive coup. If they want him gone they will find the way. I fancy a surfeit of skeletons are available.

    I have been wrong before. This afternoon actually. Lolz
    I checked the betting on a 25 exit for SKS. It's shorter than I expected. 4/1.
    Teetering on the rim like a teetery thing
    I don't get that impression. I'd more lay than back at that price. But let's see. If it happens I'll remember you predicted it.
    If it doesn't please feel free to forget I predicted it. I won't be offended 😉
    I'll try. But I forget almost nothing on here. My gift, my curse.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,148

    Apparently David Cameron is going to work for DLA Piper I mean come on. It’s almost as bad as the Hill Dickinson Stadium.

    You should see Lord Cameron's fee on the lecture circuit.

    It'll be worth every penny that DLA Piper pay him.
    Lord Cameron opposed and tried to stop this terrible deal.
    Do you want to know what else David Cameron tried to oppose?
    Do you support this deal and disagree with Dave then?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,212

    Apparently David Cameron is going to work for DLA Piper I mean come on. It’s almost as bad as the Hill Dickinson Stadium.

    You should see Lord Cameron's fee on the lecture circuit.

    It'll be worth every penny that DLA Piper pay him.
    Lord Cameron opposed and tried to stop this terrible deal.
    Do you want to know what else David Cameron tried to oppose?
    Greensill?

    :innocent:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,315

    Just took part in an Opinium poll and one of the questions they asked me if Greggs was somewhere where I consider taking somebody on a first date or romantic meal.

    I mean WTAF?

    Yes, that would be taking 'down to earth' a bit far.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,594
    edited May 23
    FF43 said:

    TimS said:

    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    FPT:

    Brown believed his own genius - hence 'ending (Tory) boom and bust'. The reality is that he inherited a booming economy and then decided to open the taps for reasons. Of course the sale of the gold is more complicated than it is sometimes portrayed, but his financial negligence around his OWN fiscal rules was shocking. And then you have the vast expansion of PFI (yes the Tories started it, but Brown went BIG). PFI took spending off the annual returns and inter the perpetual future. All those lightbulbs changed for 300 quid...

    On PFI I’m not fully behind the consensus that it was a disaster. A lot of the money spent was capex. If not for PFI, it would either have never been spent at all (and our public realm would be even more crumbling) or it would have been spent by necessity years later, at several times the price.

    There are plenty of examples of poor PFI deals, but there are always plenty of examples of poor infrastructure projects. We know from the story of HS2, nuclear power and multiple other infrastructure fails in recent decades that a problem postponed is a problem doubled. PFI was a rare example of JFDI.
    It got things done, this is true, but at an inflated cost.

    To me it illustrates well one of the golden rules of trading. If you can deal with a counterparty who is doing the trade for reasons other than pure £££ you're likely to be the winner.

    In this case the counterparty driven by non £££ considerations (being to keep debt off the books) was the government. So the other side - the private sector providers - were able to make hay.
    The replies from across the spectrum on this show how far PFI-as-failure has become embedded in the political mind. As with all things it contains some truth, but loses nuance.

    1. A number of PFI contractors went bust. They didn’t negotiate a very good deal with government
    2. The super-profits attributable to some of them came from a wheeze - a bad wheeze in hindsight - that had nothing to do with government contracting, but was a benefit of falling interest rates and refinancing
    3. Sure, we didn’t PFI some of our most pressing infrastructure projects, but nor did we build them, which brings me on to
    4. Those decrying PFI need to describe the realistic alternative history. And that alternative history is that the investment wasn’t made. Precisely because of the Treasury accounting that PFI circumvented.

    To have a credible alternative path for PFI you have to argue that government would have thrown out the usual bean counting orthodoxy and thought “to hell with it, let’s build those things”.
    To have a credible alternative path for PFI you have to argue that government would have thrown out the usual bean counting orthodoxy and thought “to hell with it, let’s build those things”.

    This. But the the would needs to be should. If you decide something requires to be built you have to find the money for it from somewhere and there needs to be honesty about where it comes from. Don't disguise the cost in wasteful funding schemes but be transparent that improvements need to be paid for and this will come out of taxes.
    Which was the argument at the time.
    Brown's dishonesty really annoyed me back then; still does.

    Make the case for investment transparently.
    FFS.

    The same shit is still going on with the water companies. It costs us dear.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,315

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    It's up to the Tories to get it widely known that this going to cost taxpayers £30-50bn and our taxes will rise, 29% opposing will get a lot higher if they can do that.

    You're supposed to be good with numbers, Max.
    Don't exaggerate.
    All the Tories need to do is put it at a cost per household and extra tax for the next 99 years.

    In fact, it's astonishing they haven't already done it.
    I'd be astonished if they do because that's a way to illustrate how grand scheme tiny it is.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,448
    edited May 23

    Just took part in an Opinium poll and one of the questions they asked me if Greggs was somewhere where I consider taking somebody on a first date or romantic meal.

    I mean WTAF?

    “Would you shag someone in a Greggs? I mean would you? If you were pissed?”

    Should be on the UK citizenship test.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,716

    Just took part in an Opinium poll and one of the questions they asked me if Greggs was somewhere where I consider taking somebody on a first date or romantic meal.

    I mean WTAF?

    That's crazy. The don't even do pineapple pizza!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,417

    Just took part in an Opinium poll and one of the questions they asked me if Greggs was somewhere where I consider taking somebody on a first date or romantic meal.

    I mean WTAF?

    That's the sort of classy place the West has become. 'So I pulled out and finished all over her steak bake'
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,351
    FF43 said:

    The public should be allowed not to care about certain things.

    But this isn’t one of them. The financial cost is bearable, but the direction of travel is not.

    As I've said before, there is a training process whereby the British public is being gaslit not to expect anything better. That is the Starmer administration. We have had dodgy and self-serving acts many times in the past, but this is a wilful, full-frontal attack on the national interest by the Government, and sadly there are a lot of nice people who will accept it like an abused partner accepts it. BigG gave us an example of that yesterday. The project of the right is not just to achieve power and govern well, but to re-moralise a demoralised public.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,485
    Eabhal said:

    David Cameron has lost a lot of weight. I hope that's because he's going for the Tory leadership again rather than something even worse.

    Can't be leader if not in the Commons. Otherwise Penny Mordaunt would be in the betting. The crisis for the Tories is really poor quality of the Parliamentary party overall.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,594

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    It's up to the Tories to get it widely known that this going to cost taxpayers £30-50bn and our taxes will rise, 29% opposing will get a lot higher if they can do that.

    You're supposed to be good with numbers, Max.
    Don't exaggerate.
    All the Tories need to do is put it at a cost per household and extra tax for the next 99 years.

    In fact, it's astonishing they haven't already done it.
    Around £3 to £4 pa per household.

    Astonishing.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,417
    TimS said:

    Just took part in an Opinium poll and one of the questions they asked me if Greggs was somewhere where I consider taking somebody on a first date or romantic meal.

    I mean WTAF?

    “Would you shag someone in a Greggs? I mean would you? If you were pissed?”

    Should be on the UK citizenship test.
    The low grade behaviour of people is why the fad for naming your kid after where they were conceived has ended.
    Taking little Bins Out The Back Of Greggs to the park just doesn't work
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,093
    TimS said:

    Just took part in an Opinium poll and one of the questions they asked me if Greggs was somewhere where I consider taking somebody on a first date or romantic meal.

    I mean WTAF?

    “Would you shag someone in a Greggs? I mean would you? If you were pissed?”

    Should be on the UK citizenship test.
    Reminds me when I was a good and innocent Muslim and I had my first date and she told me she liked it rough so I took her to Blackpool.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,716
    IanB2 said:

    Eabhal said:

    David Cameron has lost a lot of weight. I hope that's because he's going for the Tory leadership again rather than something even worse.

    What could be worse than the Tory leadership?
    The Reform one?

    OK, it's a photo finish...
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,051
    edited May 23

    Apparently David Cameron is going to work for DLA Piper I mean come on. It’s almost as bad as the Hill Dickinson Stadium.

    You should see Lord Cameron's fee on the lecture circuit.

    It'll be worth every penny that DLA Piper pay him.
    Lord Cameron opposed and tried to stop this terrible deal.
    Do you want to know what else David Cameron tried to oppose?
    Greensill?

    :innocent:
    If speaking fees are the measure then Cameron is ~60% of a Johnson, so why are DLA Piper shopping in the 2nd division?
    He lectures on Brexit apparently.
    "So I was talking to Angela and Francois, and they said "David, we really don't think it's a good idea to hold a referendum, there's a strong chance you'll lose" but I ... Oh!

    So given he's a duffer at compliance, ethics, fraud and money laundering what field is he advising them on?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,712

    TimS said:

    Just took part in an Opinium poll and one of the questions they asked me if Greggs was somewhere where I consider taking somebody on a first date or romantic meal.

    I mean WTAF?

    “Would you shag someone in a Greggs? I mean would you? If you were pissed?”

    Should be on the UK citizenship test.
    The low grade behaviour of people is why the fad for naming your kid after where they were conceived has ended.
    Taking little Bins Out The Back Of Greggs to the park just doesn't work
    {Two-Dogs has entered the chat}
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,711
    Most Conservative and Reform voters oppose the Chagos Deal and most Labour and LD supporters do not back it is what will worry Starmer
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,417

    FF43 said:

    The public should be allowed not to care about certain things.

    But this isn’t one of them. The financial cost is bearable, but the direction of travel is not.

    As I've said before, there is a training process whereby the British public is being gaslit not to expect anything better. That is the Starmer administration. We have had dodgy and self-serving acts many times in the past, but this is a wilful, full-frontal attack on the national interest by the Government, and sadly there are a lot of nice people who will accept it like an abused partner accepts it. BigG gave us an example of that yesterday. The project of the right is not just to achieve power and govern well, but to re-moralise a demoralised public.
    The demoralised public will never fight back is their hope. The utterly constant attack on anything resembling pride in history, tradition or culture has been going on for 40 years and intensifying.
    Classic Soviet anti west playbook
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,926

    Just took part in an Opinium poll and one of the questions they asked me if Greggs was somewhere where I consider taking somebody on a first date or romantic meal.

    I mean WTAF?

    Spoons yes, Greggs no.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,063
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    It's up to the Tories to get it widely known that this going to cost taxpayers £30-50bn and our taxes will rise, 29% opposing will get a lot higher if they can do that.

    You're supposed to be good with numbers, Max.
    Don't exaggerate.
    All the Tories need to do is put it at a cost per household and extra tax for the next 99 years.

    In fact, it's astonishing they haven't already done it.
    Around £3 to £4 pa per household.

    Astonishing.
    So three times the cost of the monarchy?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,417
    Carney's Liberals have failed to overturn Windsor in the recount so he will now have to find NDP support whatever happens in the remaining recount and the disputed Terrebonne '1 vote' riding, the sole Green isn't enough to get him to 172.
    Means it's possible he could get no confidenced immediately when he finally faces parliament many many weeks into his premiership.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,148

    Just took part in an Opinium poll and one of the questions they asked me if Greggs was somewhere where I consider taking somebody on a first date or romantic meal.

    I mean WTAF?

    Spoons yes, Greggs no.
    What about spooning in Greggs?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,212
    [Sunil jizzes himself in a frenzy over some Greggs vegan sausage rolls]

    "I'll have what he's having!"
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,148
    It won't happen, because Bezos owns it now and is a twat, but the next James Bond - I think - needs to go more in the Roger Moore direction.

    We need fun. It needs to be extremely fun. Sexy opening scenes. A bit of humour. Big Union Jack's on parachutes, balloons, submarines and cars. Sex appeal. Gorgeous women. Amazing food. Great locations. Maybe a bit less of the ooft uhft! punch scenes and eyebrow raising, though.

    We need to feel good about being British again and being the good guys.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,212

    Carney's Liberals have failed to overturn Windsor in the recount so he will now have to find NDP support whatever happens in the remaining recount and the disputed Terrebonne '1 vote' riding, the sole Green isn't enough to get him to 172.
    Means it's possible he could get no confidenced immediately when he finally faces parliament many many weeks into his premiership.

    The Canadians are still counting???

    Who do they think they are? American???
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,006

    FF43 said:

    The public should be allowed not to care about certain things.

    But this isn’t one of them. The financial cost is bearable, but the direction of travel is not.

    As I've said before, there is a training process whereby the British public is being gaslit not to expect anything better. That is the Starmer administration. We have had dodgy and self-serving acts many times in the past, but this is a wilful, full-frontal attack on the national interest by the Government, and sadly there are a lot of nice people who will accept it like an abused partner accepts it. BigG gave us an example of that yesterday. The project of the right is not just to achieve power and govern well, but to re-moralise a demoralised public.
    The problem is this is all abject nonsense - full frontal attack on the national interest by a government as an abusive partner. I fear the right might achieve power but in that case we'll just end up with a Trump like figure who absolutely isn't governing well or re-moralising a demoralised public.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,561
    edited May 23

    It won't happen, because Bezos owns it now and is a twat, but the next James Bond - I think - needs to go more in the Roger Moore direction.

    We need fun. It needs to be extremely fun. Sexy opening scenes. A bit of humour. Big Union Jack's on parachutes, balloons, submarines and cars. Sex appeal. Gorgeous women. Amazing food. Great locations. Maybe a bit less of the ooft uhft! punch scenes and eyebrow raising, though.

    We need to feel good about being British again and being the good guys.

    They shouldn't bother.

    It's a tired franchise that needs to be put out of its misery.

    You can only rip off your own movie so many times before the formula goes beyond stale.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 24,005
    FF43 said:

    TimS said:

    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    FPT:

    Brown believed his own genius - hence 'ending (Tory) boom and bust'. The reality is that he inherited a booming economy and then decided to open the taps for reasons. Of course the sale of the gold is more complicated than it is sometimes portrayed, but his financial negligence around his OWN fiscal rules was shocking. And then you have the vast expansion of PFI (yes the Tories started it, but Brown went BIG). PFI took spending off the annual returns and inter the perpetual future. All those lightbulbs changed for 300 quid...

    On PFI I’m not fully behind the consensus that it was a disaster. A lot of the money spent was capex. If not for PFI, it would either have never been spent at all (and our public realm would be even more crumbling) or it would have been spent by necessity years later, at several times the price.

    There are plenty of examples of poor PFI deals, but there are always plenty of examples of poor infrastructure projects. We know from the story of HS2, nuclear power and multiple other infrastructure fails in recent decades that a problem postponed is a problem doubled. PFI was a rare example of JFDI.
    It got things done, this is true, but at an inflated cost.

    To me it illustrates well one of the golden rules of trading. If you can deal with a counterparty who is doing the trade for reasons other than pure £££ you're likely to be the winner.

    In this case the counterparty driven by non £££ considerations (being to keep debt off the books) was the government. So the other side - the private sector providers - were able to make hay.
    The replies from across the spectrum on this show how far PFI-as-failure has become embedded in the political mind. As with all things it contains some truth, but loses nuance.

    1. A number of PFI contractors went bust. They didn’t negotiate a very good deal with government
    2. The super-profits attributable to some of them came from a wheeze - a bad wheeze in hindsight - that had nothing to do with government contracting, but was a benefit of falling interest rates and refinancing
    3. Sure, we didn’t PFI some of our most pressing infrastructure projects, but nor did we build them, which brings me on to
    4. Those decrying PFI need to describe the realistic alternative history. And that alternative history is that the investment wasn’t made. Precisely because of the Treasury accounting that PFI circumvented.

    To have a credible alternative path for PFI you have to argue that government would have thrown out the usual bean counting orthodoxy and thought “to hell with it, let’s build those things”.
    To have a credible alternative path for PFI you have to argue that government would have thrown out the usual bean counting orthodoxy and thought “to hell with it, let’s build those things”.

    This. But the the would needs to be should. If you decide something requires to be built you have to find the money for it from somewhere and there needs to be honesty about where it comes from. Don't disguise the cost in wasteful funding schemes but be transparent that improvements need to be paid for and this will come out of taxes.
    Well the other schemes also need to be paid for out of taxes too, not saving a penny of taxpayers money by "keeping it off the books".

    The Government makes its own rules that it needs to follow and it can change the rules as it deems appropriate.

    Cheap, or not so cheap, accounting tricks fool nobody and achieve nothing.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,148

    Carney's Liberals have failed to overturn Windsor in the recount so he will now have to find NDP support whatever happens in the remaining recount and the disputed Terrebonne '1 vote' riding, the sole Green isn't enough to get him to 172.
    Means it's possible he could get no confidenced immediately when he finally faces parliament many many weeks into his premiership.

    The Canadians are still counting???

    Who do they think they are? American???
    It's especially annoying since its prevented Ladbrokes paying out on Liberal Minority.

    He'll be fine with 170 seats, and just two short. He'll be able to govern for years.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,560

    Carney's Liberals have failed to overturn Windsor in the recount so he will now have to find NDP support whatever happens in the remaining recount and the disputed Terrebonne '1 vote' riding, the sole Green isn't enough to get him to 172.
    Means it's possible he could get no confidenced immediately when he finally faces parliament many many weeks into his premiership.

    There’s no chance the NDP will no confidence Carney , indeed I doubt even the Cons would do that at this time as they would get eviscerated by the public for collapsing the government when they’re trying to negotiate a new deal with the manchild. Any dramas aren’t likely to happen until a new deal has been agreed , at that point if the opposition don’t like it they might act then .
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,561
    edited May 23
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Eabhal said:

    David Cameron has lost a lot of weight. I hope that's because he's going for the Tory leadership again rather than something even worse.

    What could be worse than the Tory leadership?
    The Reform one?

    OK, it's a photo finish...
    And the Labour one? Angela bloody Rayner, David useless Lammy, Rachel from Accounts and Two-Tier, Free Gear Sir Kneel? What a mob.

    Face it, with minor, isolated exceptions, our whole political class is a parody of dismal, arrogant incompetence. Few of them seem to be outright pscychopaths like Trump, Putin or Xi, but that's where the consolation ends.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,964
    edited May 23
    isam said:

    I’m astonished 52% of people have heard of it.

    I hope a reasonable fraction of people think it's either a Harry Potter novel or a Jason Bourne film.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,417
    edited May 23

    Carney's Liberals have failed to overturn Windsor in the recount so he will now have to find NDP support whatever happens in the remaining recount and the disputed Terrebonne '1 vote' riding, the sole Green isn't enough to get him to 172.
    Means it's possible he could get no confidenced immediately when he finally faces parliament many many weeks into his premiership.

    The Canadians are still counting???

    Who do they think they are? American???
    It's especially annoying since its prevented Ladbrokes paying out on Liberal Minority.

    He'll be fine with 170 seats, and just two short. He'll be able to govern for years.
    He will be able to govern until the NDP recover in the polls and suddenly fancy a GE
    Or until everyone realises what an absolutely useless prick he is
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,093
    OnlyFans owner in talks to sell site for $8bn

    In the year ended November 2023, the social media platform generated $6.6 billion in revenue, up from $375 million in 2020


    https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/onlyfans-owner-in-talks-to-sell-site-for-8bn-hz7w2xdxc
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,358

    A handsome guy on here yesterday said something like this.....
    Some won't care but those that hate this deal REALLY hate it.
    Exactly what this poll shows. Support is more likely lukewarm, opposition much fiercer with overall opposition more likely.
    Polling on issues does not of course give the full picture. In the aftermath of Truss budget the measures were almost all more supported than opposed and within a week and a half the Tories were 35 points adrift in the polls.
    After a day of coverage 1 in 5 strongly oppose the deal. Another scab to be picked at. One of many.
    Harman briefing openly against Starmer/WFA U turn, the Lab MP supporting Rupert over Lucy C, the obvious briefing war between Starmer and his own Chief of Staff. His desperate bonfire of deals, u turns, press releases, begging for support.......
    It's coming to a head. He's out soon. He'll make a year as PM (just)

    "the obvious briefing war between Starmer and his own Chief of Staff"

    Its far tougher to remove a Labour leader that doesn't want to go than a Conservative one so I was expecting Starmer to keep limping on this year. But I did have a wee flutter on the possibility of Starmer throwing in the towel next year on the assumption that things could only get worse for him and his government after the Autumn budget. And despite that large Labour majority, its now looking increasingly likely that there is going to be a lot of one term MPs if they don't find a spine and start rebelling against the leadership and some of their most unpopular policies.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,417
    edited May 23
    nico67 said:

    Carney's Liberals have failed to overturn Windsor in the recount so he will now have to find NDP support whatever happens in the remaining recount and the disputed Terrebonne '1 vote' riding, the sole Green isn't enough to get him to 172.
    Means it's possible he could get no confidenced immediately when he finally faces parliament many many weeks into his premiership.

    There’s no chance the NDP will no confidence Carney , indeed I doubt even the Cons would do that at this time as they would get eviscerated by the public for collapsing the government when they’re trying to negotiate a new deal with the manchild. Any dramas aren’t likely to happen until a new deal has been agreed , at that point if the opposition don’t like it they might act then .
    I agree generally with the proviso that the boomers that got Carney over the line are quickly realising 'elbows up' was utter nonsense/gaslighting
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 24,005

    OnlyFans owner in talks to sell site for $8bn

    In the year ended November 2023, the social media platform generated $6.6 billion in revenue, up from $375 million in 2020


    https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/onlyfans-owner-in-talks-to-sell-site-for-8bn-hz7w2xdxc

    1760% growth per annum is not too shabby.

    At this rate it'll be generating 2 trillion dollars per annum within 2 years.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,315
    Re Dave being against Chagos. I bet that was because of his nose for its political impact rather than him judging it against the national interest.
  • SonofContrarianSonofContrarian Posts: 166

    I strongly doubt more than 10% of the UK population know a damn thing about the Chagos Islands.

    They know Starmer sold them up the river.
    Yeah, Labour will still get 250+:seats so aot of hyperbole about nothing..🤨
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,417
    edited May 23
    fitalass said:

    A handsome guy on here yesterday said something like this.....
    Some won't care but those that hate this deal REALLY hate it.
    Exactly what this poll shows. Support is more likely lukewarm, opposition much fiercer with overall opposition more likely.
    Polling on issues does not of course give the full picture. In the aftermath of Truss budget the measures were almost all more supported than opposed and within a week and a half the Tories were 35 points adrift in the polls.
    After a day of coverage 1 in 5 strongly oppose the deal. Another scab to be picked at. One of many.
    Harman briefing openly against Starmer/WFA U turn, the Lab MP supporting Rupert over Lucy C, the obvious briefing war between Starmer and his own Chief of Staff. His desperate bonfire of deals, u turns, press releases, begging for support.......
    It's coming to a head. He's out soon. He'll make a year as PM (just)

    "the obvious briefing war between Starmer and his own Chief of Staff"

    Its far tougher to remove a Labour leader that doesn't want to go than a Conservative one so I was expecting Starmer to keep limping on this year. But I did have a wee flutter on the possibility of Starmer throwing in the towel next year on the assumption that things could only get worse for him and his government after the Autumn budget. And despite that large Labour majority, its now looking increasingly likely that there is going to be a lot of one term MPs if they don't find a spine and start rebelling against the leadership and some of their most unpopular policies.
    If Red Queen doesn't go for it, what happens over Disability may still be relevant here. There are dozens prepared to vote against and if Starmer tries to hold the line and three line whip it he will have to remove the whip on potentially a few dozen MPs. Now they won't bring the whole government down but they sure as hell might bring him down if 'someone' is in the wings waiting to readmit them. That notwithstanding a massive rebellion weakens him severely and a defeated disability Bill probably finishes him as PM
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,063

    fitalass said:

    A handsome guy on here yesterday said something like this.....
    Some won't care but those that hate this deal REALLY hate it.
    Exactly what this poll shows. Support is more likely lukewarm, opposition much fiercer with overall opposition more likely.
    Polling on issues does not of course give the full picture. In the aftermath of Truss budget the measures were almost all more supported than opposed and within a week and a half the Tories were 35 points adrift in the polls.
    After a day of coverage 1 in 5 strongly oppose the deal. Another scab to be picked at. One of many.
    Harman briefing openly against Starmer/WFA U turn, the Lab MP supporting Rupert over Lucy C, the obvious briefing war between Starmer and his own Chief of Staff. His desperate bonfire of deals, u turns, press releases, begging for support.......
    It's coming to a head. He's out soon. He'll make a year as PM (just)

    "the obvious briefing war between Starmer and his own Chief of Staff"

    Its far tougher to remove a Labour leader that doesn't want to go than a Conservative one so I was expecting Starmer to keep limping on this year. But I did have a wee flutter on the possibility of Starmer throwing in the towel next year on the assumption that things could only get worse for him and his government after the Autumn budget. And despite that large Labour majority, its now looking increasingly likely that there is going to be a lot of one term MPs if they don't find a spine and start rebelling against the leadership and some of their most unpopular policies.
    If Red Queen doesn't go for it, what happens over Disability may still be relevant here. There are dozens prepared to vote against and if Starmer tries to hold the line and three line whip it he will have to remove the whip on potentially a few dozen MPs. Now they won't bring the whole government down but they sure as hell might bring him down if 'someone' is in the wings waiting to readmit them. That notwithstanding a massive rebellion weakens him severely and a defeated disability Bill probably finishes him as PM
    Are the tories expected to vote with the government on this?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,315

    FF43 said:

    TimS said:

    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    FPT:

    Brown believed his own genius - hence 'ending (Tory) boom and bust'. The reality is that he inherited a booming economy and then decided to open the taps for reasons. Of course the sale of the gold is more complicated than it is sometimes portrayed, but his financial negligence around his OWN fiscal rules was shocking. And then you have the vast expansion of PFI (yes the Tories started it, but Brown went BIG). PFI took spending off the annual returns and inter the perpetual future. All those lightbulbs changed for 300 quid...

    On PFI I’m not fully behind the consensus that it was a disaster. A lot of the money spent was capex. If not for PFI, it would either have never been spent at all (and our public realm would be even more crumbling) or it would have been spent by necessity years later, at several times the price.

    There are plenty of examples of poor PFI deals, but there are always plenty of examples of poor infrastructure projects. We know from the story of HS2, nuclear power and multiple other infrastructure fails in recent decades that a problem postponed is a problem doubled. PFI was a rare example of JFDI.
    It got things done, this is true, but at an inflated cost.

    To me it illustrates well one of the golden rules of trading. If you can deal with a counterparty who is doing the trade for reasons other than pure £££ you're likely to be the winner.

    In this case the counterparty driven by non £££ considerations (being to keep debt off the books) was the government. So the other side - the private sector providers - were able to make hay.
    The replies from across the spectrum on this show how far PFI-as-failure has become embedded in the political mind. As with all things it contains some truth, but loses nuance.

    1. A number of PFI contractors went bust. They didn’t negotiate a very good deal with government
    2. The super-profits attributable to some of them came from a wheeze - a bad wheeze in hindsight - that had nothing to do with government contracting, but was a benefit of falling interest rates and refinancing
    3. Sure, we didn’t PFI some of our most pressing infrastructure projects, but nor did we build them, which brings me on to
    4. Those decrying PFI need to describe the realistic alternative history. And that alternative history is that the investment wasn’t made. Precisely because of the Treasury accounting that PFI circumvented.

    To have a credible alternative path for PFI you have to argue that government would have thrown out the usual bean counting orthodoxy and thought “to hell with it, let’s build those things”.
    To have a credible alternative path for PFI you have to argue that government would have thrown out the usual bean counting orthodoxy and thought “to hell with it, let’s build those things”.

    This. But the the would needs to be should. If you decide something requires to be built you have to find the money for it from somewhere and there needs to be honesty about where it comes from. Don't disguise the cost in wasteful funding schemes but be transparent that improvements need to be paid for and this will come out of taxes.
    Well the other schemes also need to be paid for out of taxes too, not saving a penny of taxpayers money by "keeping it off the books".

    The Government makes its own rules that it needs to follow and it can change the rules as it deems appropriate.

    Cheap, or not so cheap, accounting tricks fool nobody and achieve nothing.
    You're agreeing with the point then.

    (well done on job)
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,532
    edited May 23

    Just took part in an Opinium poll and one of the questions they asked me if Greggs was somewhere where I consider taking somebody on a first date or romantic meal.

    I mean WTAF?

    Gregg's the sandwich shop? That Greggs?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,417

    I strongly doubt more than 10% of the UK population know a damn thing about the Chagos Islands.

    They know Starmer sold them up the river.
    Yeah, Labour will still get 250+:seats so aot of hyperbole about nothing..🤨
    They aren't getting 250 seats unless they can squeeze the LD and Green vote to buggery. They've always held on to that sort of figure because the LDs and Tories were totally uncompetitive in vast parts of the red wall and London. That's all changed with the indies and Reform. They have nowhere safe left and if their vote share starts with 2, their seat total will be starting with 1 (at best)
    If it becomes a Lab Ref or Lab Con head to head and everyone else is squeezed out then yes, for sure, but I can't see anyone rowing in behind Starmer to stop anyone - the very people that historically would have are now Reformers
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,417
    carnforth said:

    fitalass said:

    A handsome guy on here yesterday said something like this.....
    Some won't care but those that hate this deal REALLY hate it.
    Exactly what this poll shows. Support is more likely lukewarm, opposition much fiercer with overall opposition more likely.
    Polling on issues does not of course give the full picture. In the aftermath of Truss budget the measures were almost all more supported than opposed and within a week and a half the Tories were 35 points adrift in the polls.
    After a day of coverage 1 in 5 strongly oppose the deal. Another scab to be picked at. One of many.
    Harman briefing openly against Starmer/WFA U turn, the Lab MP supporting Rupert over Lucy C, the obvious briefing war between Starmer and his own Chief of Staff. His desperate bonfire of deals, u turns, press releases, begging for support.......
    It's coming to a head. He's out soon. He'll make a year as PM (just)

    "the obvious briefing war between Starmer and his own Chief of Staff"

    Its far tougher to remove a Labour leader that doesn't want to go than a Conservative one so I was expecting Starmer to keep limping on this year. But I did have a wee flutter on the possibility of Starmer throwing in the towel next year on the assumption that things could only get worse for him and his government after the Autumn budget. And despite that large Labour majority, its now looking increasingly likely that there is going to be a lot of one term MPs if they don't find a spine and start rebelling against the leadership and some of their most unpopular policies.
    If Red Queen doesn't go for it, what happens over Disability may still be relevant here. There are dozens prepared to vote against and if Starmer tries to hold the line and three line whip it he will have to remove the whip on potentially a few dozen MPs. Now they won't bring the whole government down but they sure as hell might bring him down if 'someone' is in the wings waiting to readmit them. That notwithstanding a massive rebellion weakens him severely and a defeated disability Bill probably finishes him as PM
    Are the tories expected to vote with the government on this?
    Maybe. Reform will everyone else will vote against. If there is any chance of defeat Kemi needs to construct a reason to vote against- 'not drastic enough cuts' would do.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,532
    carnforth said:

    Starmer's Art of the Deal, via Matt:

    https://x.com/MattCartoonist/status/1925954384627654825

    (Famously, of course, cartoonists address issues no-one has heard of nor cares about.)

    Longest & loudest LOLs I've had for years. Go Matt.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,716

    OnlyFans owner in talks to sell site for $8bn

    In the year ended November 2023, the social media platform generated $6.6 billion in revenue, up from $375 million in 2020


    https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/onlyfans-owner-in-talks-to-sell-site-for-8bn-hz7w2xdxc

    1760% growth per annum is not too shabby.

    At this rate it'll be generating 2 trillion dollars per annum within 2 years.
    There won't be a happy ending...
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,358
    AnneJGP said:

    Just took part in an Opinium poll and one of the questions they asked me if Greggs was somewhere where I consider taking somebody on a first date or romantic meal.

    I mean WTAF?

    Gregg's the sandwich shop? That Greggs?
    I just asked my youngest son if he would take someone to Greggs for a first date and the response was not if I was hoping for a second date...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,716
    fitalass said:

    A handsome guy on here yesterday said something like this.....
    Some won't care but those that hate this deal REALLY hate it.
    Exactly what this poll shows. Support is more likely lukewarm, opposition much fiercer with overall opposition more likely.
    Polling on issues does not of course give the full picture. In the aftermath of Truss budget the measures were almost all more supported than opposed and within a week and a half the Tories were 35 points adrift in the polls.
    After a day of coverage 1 in 5 strongly oppose the deal. Another scab to be picked at. One of many.
    Harman briefing openly against Starmer/WFA U turn, the Lab MP supporting Rupert over Lucy C, the obvious briefing war between Starmer and his own Chief of Staff. His desperate bonfire of deals, u turns, press releases, begging for support.......
    It's coming to a head. He's out soon. He'll make a year as PM (just)

    "the obvious briefing war between Starmer and his own Chief of Staff"

    Its far tougher to remove a Labour leader that doesn't want to go than a Conservative one so I was expecting Starmer to keep limping on this year. But I did have a wee flutter on the possibility of Starmer throwing in the towel next year on the assumption that things could only get worse for him and his government after the Autumn budget. And despite that large Labour majority, its now looking increasingly likely that there is going to be a lot of one term MPs if they don't find a spine and start rebelling against the leadership and some of their most unpopular policies.
    It's much tougher to evict a Tory leader too now.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,716
    fitalass said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Just took part in an Opinium poll and one of the questions they asked me if Greggs was somewhere where I consider taking somebody on a first date or romantic meal.

    I mean WTAF?

    Gregg's the sandwich shop? That Greggs?
    I just asked my youngest son if he would take someone to Greggs for a first date and the response was not if I was hoping for a second date...
    Greggs is best for a second date, for a bacon butty the morning after the first one.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,560

    Carney's Liberals have failed to overturn Windsor in the recount so he will now have to find NDP support whatever happens in the remaining recount and the disputed Terrebonne '1 vote' riding, the sole Green isn't enough to get him to 172.
    Means it's possible he could get no confidenced immediately when he finally faces parliament many many weeks into his premiership.

    The Canadians are still counting???

    Who do they think they are? American???
    It's especially annoying since its prevented Ladbrokes paying out on Liberal Minority.

    He'll be fine with 170 seats, and just two short. He'll be able to govern for years.
    He will be able to govern until the NDP recover in the polls and suddenly fancy a GE
    Or until everyone realises what an absolutely useless prick he is
    I like Mark Carney and he’s a lot better than the Trump wannabe Poilievre who desperately tried to soften his image once the polls started going against the CPC . He lost his seat and then some poor sucker had to stand down to give him a safe seat in Alberta , embarrassing is putting it mildly !
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,417
    nico67 said:

    Carney's Liberals have failed to overturn Windsor in the recount so he will now have to find NDP support whatever happens in the remaining recount and the disputed Terrebonne '1 vote' riding, the sole Green isn't enough to get him to 172.
    Means it's possible he could get no confidenced immediately when he finally faces parliament many many weeks into his premiership.

    The Canadians are still counting???

    Who do they think they are? American???
    It's especially annoying since its prevented Ladbrokes paying out on Liberal Minority.

    He'll be fine with 170 seats, and just two short. He'll be able to govern for years.
    He will be able to govern until the NDP recover in the polls and suddenly fancy a GE
    Or until everyone realises what an absolutely useless prick he is
    I like Mark Carney and he’s a lot better than the Trump wannabe Poilievre who desperately tried to soften his image once the polls started going against the CPC . He lost his seat and then some poor sucker had to stand down to give him a safe seat in Alberta , embarrassing is putting it mildly !
    I don't and he isn't. But that's opinions for you!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,326
    On topic, a meaningless poll. If almost half of respondents don't know enough to have an opinion one way or another then that is only a reflection of how poor our media and political leaders are at explaining things.

    It says nothing about either the policy or its impact when it is properly explained.

    And in the end surely the only opinion that should matter is that of the actual Chagosians - the one group who seem to have been entirely ignored by the whole process.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,657
    AnneJGP said:

    Just took part in an Opinium poll and one of the questions they asked me if Greggs was somewhere where I consider taking somebody on a first date or romantic meal.

    I mean WTAF?

    Gregg's the sandwich shop? That Greggs?
    Some of the small shops have (or had) seats, and they also do larger shops with lots of seats.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,018
    That’s a lot of don’t knows to turn into Haters of Traitors
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,326

    [Sunil jizzes himself in a frenzy over some Greggs vegan sausage rolls]

    "I'll have what he's having!"

    I really hate the Taxdodgers who own Greggs.

    But as a happy meat eater I have to say their vegan sausage rolls are lush.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,417
    Leon said:

    That’s a lot of don’t knows to turn into Haters of Traitors

    We need to have a word with the 10% Reformers with a boner or a semi for humiliation
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,489
    Foxy said:

    fitalass said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Just took part in an Opinium poll and one of the questions they asked me if Greggs was somewhere where I consider taking somebody on a first date or romantic meal.

    I mean WTAF?

    Gregg's the sandwich shop? That Greggs?
    I just asked my youngest son if he would take someone to Greggs for a first date and the response was not if I was hoping for a second date...
    Greggs is best for a second date, for a bacon butty the morning after the first one.
    Deliveroo and then you don't have to get out of bed...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,417
    Foss said:

    Foxy said:

    fitalass said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Just took part in an Opinium poll and one of the questions they asked me if Greggs was somewhere where I consider taking somebody on a first date or romantic meal.

    I mean WTAF?

    Gregg's the sandwich shop? That Greggs?
    I just asked my youngest son if he would take someone to Greggs for a first date and the response was not if I was hoping for a second date...
    Greggs is best for a second date, for a bacon butty the morning after the first one.
    Deliveroo and then you don't have to get out of bed...
    Your partner has to go answer the door? Lazy lover, lazzzzzzy
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,780

    OnlyFans owner in talks to sell site for $8bn

    In the year ended November 2023, the social media platform generated $6.6 billion in revenue, up from $375 million in 2020


    https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/onlyfans-owner-in-talks-to-sell-site-for-8bn-hz7w2xdxc

    "About a Jony Ive" is my new favourite Silicon Valley euphemism.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,351
    ...

    On topic, a meaningless poll. If almost half of respondents don't know enough to have an opinion one way or another then that is only a reflection of how poor our media and political leaders are at explaining things.

    It says nothing about either the policy or its impact when it is properly explained.

    And in the end surely the only opinion that should matter is that of the actual Chagosians - the one group who seem to have been entirely ignored by the whole process.

    I can't verify this as it's just a random Tweet, but some have claimed Mauritius detests the Chagossian identity and punishes expressions of it with custodial sentences. They really seem like 'the baddies' to me.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,532
    viewcode said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Just took part in an Opinium poll and one of the questions they asked me if Greggs was somewhere where I consider taking somebody on a first date or romantic meal.

    I mean WTAF?

    Gregg's the sandwich shop? That Greggs?
    Some of the small shops have (or had) seats, and they also do larger shops with lots of seats.
    Oh, thanks, I didn't know that. Not much improvement but slightly better if you can at least sit down.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,417
    edited May 23

    ...

    On topic, a meaningless poll. If almost half of respondents don't know enough to have an opinion one way or another then that is only a reflection of how poor our media and political leaders are at explaining things.

    It says nothing about either the policy or its impact when it is properly explained.

    And in the end surely the only opinion that should matter is that of the actual Chagosians - the one group who seem to have been entirely ignored by the whole process.

    I can't verify this as it's just a random Tweet, but some have claimed Mauritius detests the Chagossian identity and punishes expressions of it with custodial sentences. They really seem like 'the baddies' to me.
    I'm not sure of their view of the identity but they passed a law in 2021 criminalising misrepresenting it's sovereignty over any of its territory- that would include Chagossians referring to Chagos as anything other than Mauritian.

    Max penalty is 10 years. So that's problematic for the Chagossian diaspora living in Mauritius
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,351

    fitalass said:

    A handsome guy on here yesterday said something like this.....
    Some won't care but those that hate this deal REALLY hate it.
    Exactly what this poll shows. Support is more likely lukewarm, opposition much fiercer with overall opposition more likely.
    Polling on issues does not of course give the full picture. In the aftermath of Truss budget the measures were almost all more supported than opposed and within a week and a half the Tories were 35 points adrift in the polls.
    After a day of coverage 1 in 5 strongly oppose the deal. Another scab to be picked at. One of many.
    Harman briefing openly against Starmer/WFA U turn, the Lab MP supporting Rupert over Lucy C, the obvious briefing war between Starmer and his own Chief of Staff. His desperate bonfire of deals, u turns, press releases, begging for support.......
    It's coming to a head. He's out soon. He'll make a year as PM (just)

    "the obvious briefing war between Starmer and his own Chief of Staff"

    Its far tougher to remove a Labour leader that doesn't want to go than a Conservative one so I was expecting Starmer to keep limping on this year. But I did have a wee flutter on the possibility of Starmer throwing in the towel next year on the assumption that things could only get worse for him and his government after the Autumn budget. And despite that large Labour majority, its now looking increasingly likely that there is going to be a lot of one term MPs if they don't find a spine and start rebelling against the leadership and some of their most unpopular policies.
    If Red Queen doesn't go for it, what happens over Disability may still be relevant here. There are dozens prepared to vote against and if Starmer tries to hold the line and three line whip it he will have to remove the whip on potentially a few dozen MPs. Now they won't bring the whole government down but they sure as hell might bring him down if 'someone' is in the wings waiting to readmit them. That notwithstanding a massive rebellion weakens him severely and a defeated disability Bill probably finishes him as PM
    At present, Starmer is saved by Reform chiefly squeezing the Tory vote - their disastrous polling gives him a bit of a fig leaf in PMQs. His problems will start when Labour polling begins with a '1'. It would be very brave to bet against this happening in the next 3 months I feel.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,360

    FF43 said:

    The public should be allowed not to care about certain things.

    But this isn’t one of them. The financial cost is bearable, but the direction of travel is not.

    As I've said before, there is a training process whereby the British public is being gaslit not to expect anything better. That is the Starmer administration. We have had dodgy and self-serving acts many times in the past, but this is a wilful, full-frontal attack on the national interest by the Government, and sadly there are a lot of nice people who will accept it like an abused partner accepts it. BigG gave us an example of that yesterday. The project of the right is not just to achieve power and govern well, but to re-moralise a demoralised public.
    What bollocks! The likes of Reform UK (and MAGA in the US) are constantly trying to demoralise us, tell us how terrible everything. You're even doing it here.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,417

    FF43 said:

    The public should be allowed not to care about certain things.

    But this isn’t one of them. The financial cost is bearable, but the direction of travel is not.

    As I've said before, there is a training process whereby the British public is being gaslit not to expect anything better. That is the Starmer administration. We have had dodgy and self-serving acts many times in the past, but this is a wilful, full-frontal attack on the national interest by the Government, and sadly there are a lot of nice people who will accept it like an abused partner accepts it. BigG gave us an example of that yesterday. The project of the right is not just to achieve power and govern well, but to re-moralise a demoralised public.
    What bollocks! The likes of Reform UK (and MAGA in the US) are constantly trying to demoralise us, tell us how terrible everything. You're even doing it here.
    One side tells you it's awful but they can magically make it great, the other that it's awful, it's your fault and you deserve it because of your privilege
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,417

    fitalass said:

    A handsome guy on here yesterday said something like this.....
    Some won't care but those that hate this deal REALLY hate it.
    Exactly what this poll shows. Support is more likely lukewarm, opposition much fiercer with overall opposition more likely.
    Polling on issues does not of course give the full picture. In the aftermath of Truss budget the measures were almost all more supported than opposed and within a week and a half the Tories were 35 points adrift in the polls.
    After a day of coverage 1 in 5 strongly oppose the deal. Another scab to be picked at. One of many.
    Harman briefing openly against Starmer/WFA U turn, the Lab MP supporting Rupert over Lucy C, the obvious briefing war between Starmer and his own Chief of Staff. His desperate bonfire of deals, u turns, press releases, begging for support.......
    It's coming to a head. He's out soon. He'll make a year as PM (just)

    "the obvious briefing war between Starmer and his own Chief of Staff"

    Its far tougher to remove a Labour leader that doesn't want to go than a Conservative one so I was expecting Starmer to keep limping on this year. But I did have a wee flutter on the possibility of Starmer throwing in the towel next year on the assumption that things could only get worse for him and his government after the Autumn budget. And despite that large Labour majority, its now looking increasingly likely that there is going to be a lot of one term MPs if they don't find a spine and start rebelling against the leadership and some of their most unpopular policies.
    If Red Queen doesn't go for it, what happens over Disability may still be relevant here. There are dozens prepared to vote against and if Starmer tries to hold the line and three line whip it he will have to remove the whip on potentially a few dozen MPs. Now they won't bring the whole government down but they sure as hell might bring him down if 'someone' is in the wings waiting to readmit them. That notwithstanding a massive rebellion weakens him severely and a defeated disability Bill probably finishes him as PM
    At present, Starmer is saved by Reform chiefly squeezing the Tory vote - their disastrous polling gives him a bit of a fig leaf in PMQs. His problems will start when Labour polling begins with a '1'. It would be very brave to bet against this happening in the next 3 months I feel.
    I've made a polling projection - lowest ever Labour poll score in the next few weeks (their lowest ever poll score for a GE poll is 18, SKS Labour's lowest thus far is 20)
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,780
    Cicero said:

    Eabhal said:

    David Cameron has lost a lot of weight. I hope that's because he's going for the Tory leadership again rather than something even worse.

    Can't be leader if not in the Commons. Otherwise Penny Mordaunt would be in the betting. The crisis for the Tories is really poor quality of the Parliamentary party overall.
    Ah, Penny. The doomed-to-disappoint Tory leader we never got the chance to be disappointed in. Though to tie it in with some rather less disappointing Bond films - never say never. She did hold up the big metal sword with aplomb. And gave a decent 'the queen is dead' speech while Liz and Kwasi twitched in the background.
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