Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Winning here! Could the Lib Dems win more seats than the Tories? – politicalbetting.com

2456

Comments

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,624

    What puzzles me about this reset saga is why Labour is still in thrall to the EU since a) it is an increasingly reactionary project and b) it is in serious economic trouble.


    Why does Labour want our laws to be set by the parties of Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, Geert Wilders or by Alternative for Germany, rather than by our own parliament?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/20/starmers-reset-inflicts-real-harm-on-the-british-economy

    1) It isn't in thrall.
    2) About 500,000,000 customers are our neighbours, allies and buyers of UK stuff and sellers of stuff we buy.
    3) It's how stuff gets done in trade if you want minimum friction.
    4) Yes, the EU should never have been set up mixing so closely the trade association and the political union, but it was. I would rather have them as neighbours than USA under Trump.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,081

    ... and then, by all accounts, she is going to attack Isas.. fill your boots up to the max 20k this yr if you can.

    I would be surprised if the percentage of the population who is able to save £20k a year is above the single digits
    Yes but as I said on the last thread, that is probably by design, if the aim is to mop up suddenly available cash from the professional classes once the house is paid off and Tarquin and Sameena have left Eton and Roedean, and stop them spaffing it up the wall on imports.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,924

    I see everyone is a critic of the indiscriminate slaughter of Gazans now. I wonder if there will be any reflection on the appeasement, selective silences and bothsidesism that got us to this point?
    (Answers own question: of course there won’t be, you stupid twat)

    As always there, we don't have an easy solution. Israel are doing terrible things to the Gazans. Hamas are doing terrible things to the Gazans. The international community doesn't want to intervene because it can't reward either side, and nobody is up for becoming the impartial military presence that gets murdered by Hamas
    Hamas have happily slaughtered Gazans who rise up, as you say.

    Barely a murmur here, especially from the PSC. Peter Tatchell raised it at the last protest and was promptly arrested and warned if he said Hamas were a terrorist group that could be a criminal offence.

    The Gazans are trying to,throw off Hamas. Israel has no intention of aiding them and neither have the west.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 11,929
    Taz said:

    I see everyone is a critic of the indiscriminate slaughter of Gazans now. I wonder if there will be any reflection on the appeasement, selective silences and bothsidesism that got us to this point?
    (Answers own question: of course there won’t be, you stupid twat)

    As always there, we don't have an easy solution. Israel are doing terrible things to the Gazans. Hamas are doing terrible things to the Gazans. The international community doesn't want to intervene because it can't reward either side, and nobody is up for becoming the impartial military presence that gets murdered by Hamas
    Hamas have happily slaughtered Gazans who rise up, as you say.

    Barely a murmur here, especially from the PSC. Peter Tatchell raised it at the last protest and was promptly arrested and warned if he said Hamas were a terrorist group that could be a criminal offence.

    The Gazans are trying to,throw off Hamas. Israel has no intention of aiding them and neither have the west.
    The evidence that Gazans are trying to throw off Hamas (and I hope they are) is what exactly?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,561

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:

    Inflation numbers today. Well done Rachel. We expected a spike but to overshoot by 0.2%. Ouch. Here come the public sector demanding large pay rises too.

    Euro area inflation is down to 2.2% in April.

    Rachel's really fucked it
    It's, its almost as if the £18bn she splurged on wage increases for the public sector after the election has bled through into higher prices (with more to come from NI). In fairness, it also boosted consumption somewhat giving 1 month's decent growth.
    In which case, surely it's a one-off due to additional costs in April. Inflation will now tend to stick around the same level and fall back next April when presumably prices won't rise by 1.2% in a month
    I hope the MPC will move away from their assumption that all inflation is equal, and accept that a bit of wage-driven service sector inflation is probably a good thing.

    The economy is far away from overheating. Our recent history is one of private over-saving (hence why ISAs and pensions need looking at), underspending, under borrowing, underinvestment and the accumulation of low yielding assets. As a result government has had to overspend and over-borrow to take up the slack.

    Bring back a bit of boom and bust. Get the tills ringing again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,074
    Certainly at the moment the LDs could win more seats than the Tories.

    The Tories really need to get back to 20 to 25% in the polls to be assured of more seats than the yellows
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,624
    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Yes. The most likely future for the moment is Reform v a Lab/LD undeclared pact - replacing the old Tory v Lab/LD. Lab and LD almost nowhere in England seriously contest each other.

    But there must be a 10-20% chance of Labour so continuing to mess up that Reform v LD becomes the main match.

    It would perhaps be fair to say from the sidelines that Labour and Tory would both richly deserve their oblivion if it arrives.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,593

    What puzzles me about this reset saga is why Labour is still in thrall to the EU since a) it is an increasingly reactionary project and b) it is in serious economic trouble.


    Why does Labour want our laws to be set by the parties of Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, Geert Wilders or by Alternative for Germany, rather than by our own parliament?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/20/starmers-reset-inflicts-real-harm-on-the-british-economy

    Any laws the UK might follow are only trade based . And those politicians parties don’t have enough influence in the EP to do anything controversial.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,081
    Taz said:

    I see everyone is a critic of the indiscriminate slaughter of Gazans now. I wonder if there will be any reflection on the appeasement, selective silences and bothsidesism that got us to this point?
    (Answers own question: of course there won’t be, you stupid twat)

    As always there, we don't have an easy solution. Israel are doing terrible things to the Gazans. Hamas are doing terrible things to the Gazans. The international community doesn't want to intervene because it can't reward either side, and nobody is up for becoming the impartial military presence that gets murdered by Hamas
    Hamas have happily slaughtered Gazans who rise up, as you say.

    Barely a murmur here, especially from the PSC. Peter Tatchell raised it at the last protest and was promptly arrested and warned if he said Hamas were a terrorist group that could be a criminal offence.

    The Gazans are trying to,throw off Hamas. Israel has no intention of aiding them and neither have the west.
    Tatchell was warned that shouting fire in a crowded theatre might be a criminal offence.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 11,929
    TimS said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:

    Inflation numbers today. Well done Rachel. We expected a spike but to overshoot by 0.2%. Ouch. Here come the public sector demanding large pay rises too.

    Euro area inflation is down to 2.2% in April.

    Rachel's really fucked it
    It's, its almost as if the £18bn she splurged on wage increases for the public sector after the election has bled through into higher prices (with more to come from NI). In fairness, it also boosted consumption somewhat giving 1 month's decent growth.
    In which case, surely it's a one-off due to additional costs in April. Inflation will now tend to stick around the same level and fall back next April when presumably prices won't rise by 1.2% in a month
    I hope the MPC will move away from their assumption that all inflation is equal, and accept that a bit of wage-driven service sector inflation is probably a good thing.

    The economy is far away from overheating. Our recent history is one of private over-saving (hence why ISAs and pensions need looking at), underspending, under borrowing, underinvestment and the accumulation of low yielding assets. As a result government has had to overspend and over-borrow to take up the slack.

    Bring back a bit of boom and bust. Get the tills ringing again.
    The majority of people spend every penny they earn and put the minimum allowable in their pension because its all they can afford
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,958

    ... and then, by all accounts, she is going to attack Isas.. fill your boots up to the max 20k this yr if you can.

    I would be surprised if the percentage of the population who is able to save £20k a year is above the single digits
    So if Rachel from Accounts reduces it to 4k and 60pc are affected.. will you squeal then. ?
    Average savings per month are £230. The median will be lower. I think £3000 - £5000 would be fair.

    Personal anecdote: my flat value exploded in the years I lived there. I sold it with a 25% gain. I paid no CGT on that gain, and the net amount (after buying a new place) I used to max out an ISA. That ISA has returned me about 7% per year on average, all tax free.

    Meanwhile, my salary is taxed at a marginal rate of 42%. Ultimately, my property and investment gains occured because my parents gifted me a £10,000s several years ago, all while my actual housing costs are less than 15% of my net income.

    This is unfair. More importantly, it's trashing aspiration in this country because someone like me from a middle class background gets an easy ride while someone dependent on their salary gets smashed by tax.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,081
    TimS said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:

    Inflation numbers today. Well done Rachel. We expected a spike but to overshoot by 0.2%. Ouch. Here come the public sector demanding large pay rises too.

    Euro area inflation is down to 2.2% in April.

    Rachel's really fucked it
    It's, its almost as if the £18bn she splurged on wage increases for the public sector after the election has bled through into higher prices (with more to come from NI). In fairness, it also boosted consumption somewhat giving 1 month's decent growth.
    In which case, surely it's a one-off due to additional costs in April. Inflation will now tend to stick around the same level and fall back next April when presumably prices won't rise by 1.2% in a month
    I hope the MPC will move away from their assumption that all inflation is equal, and accept that a bit of wage-driven service sector inflation is probably a good thing.

    The economy is far away from overheating. Our recent history is one of private over-saving (hence why ISAs and pensions need looking at), underspending, under borrowing, underinvestment and the accumulation of low yielding assets. As a result government has had to overspend and over-borrow to take up the slack.

    Bring back a bit of boom and bust. Get the tills ringing again.
    HMG sets a statutory inflation target for the MPC.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,074
    DoctorG said:

    Eabhal said:

    IanB2 said:

    nico67 said:

    With Starmer stupidly chasing the mainly mythical Labour to Reform switcher there’s always a chance they’ll lose even more voters to the Lib Dem’s and with even more Tory to Lib Dem switchers as the Tories implode it’s not as outlandish as might have been the case .

    Unless there is a dramatic change in their fortunes, the LDs are still batting in a relatively narrow range.

    Therefore the bet is essentially one on a (further) Tory collapse, like we saw in the locals. And gambling also that Reform neither collapses into scandal or divison, and that there isn't any deal between Reform and Tory.

    Putting all those together, I'm not yet convinced it's a very safe bet so far ahead of the election.
    This purported Reform <> Tory merger keeps being floated, mainly by desperate Tories hoping to remain relevant. From their perspective I get it - they think they would be in the driving seat. From Reform's perspective? Why merge with the thing you have defeated? They already have the voters the donors, the attention, the members.
    I don't get it from a Conservative perspective. I think it's still at least a 50:50 whether they are bigger than Reform at the next election. A merger makes that a 0% chance. They've got to stick it out to one more GE.
    The UK could end up like Australia, with Labor and the Liberals the two main parties ...
    In Australia the Liberals are a centre right party and have to govern with the conservative Nationals.

    Even ignoring the Tories here Reform are polling far higher than Labour or the LDs
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,412

    What puzzles me about this reset saga is why Labour is still in thrall to the EU since a) it is an increasingly reactionary project and b) it is in serious economic trouble.


    Why does Labour want our laws to be set by the parties of Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, Geert Wilders or by Alternative for Germany, rather than by our own parliament?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/20/starmers-reset-inflicts-real-harm-on-the-british-economy

    In what ways are our laws to be set by the EU?

    We want access to the EEA because its a massive part of our trade and can't be replaced by trade elsewhere.

    Back when the Tories were conservatives they understood the value of free trade. Whatever happened?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,081
    Pagan2 said:

    Taz said:

    I see everyone is a critic of the indiscriminate slaughter of Gazans now. I wonder if there will be any reflection on the appeasement, selective silences and bothsidesism that got us to this point?
    (Answers own question: of course there won’t be, you stupid twat)

    As always there, we don't have an easy solution. Israel are doing terrible things to the Gazans. Hamas are doing terrible things to the Gazans. The international community doesn't want to intervene because it can't reward either side, and nobody is up for becoming the impartial military presence that gets murdered by Hamas
    Hamas have happily slaughtered Gazans who rise up, as you say.

    Barely a murmur here, especially from the PSC. Peter Tatchell raised it at the last protest and was promptly arrested and warned if he said Hamas were a terrorist group that could be a criminal offence.

    The Gazans are trying to,throw off Hamas. Israel has no intention of aiding them and neither have the west.
    The evidence that Gazans are trying to throw off Hamas (and I hope they are) is what exactly?
    That Hamas has not allowed elections since taking control of Gaza?
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,924

    TimS said:

    Taz said:



    .

    Taz said:

    A very definite yes. It would be a sad day for the U.K. for a party as awful as the Lib Dem’s to do so well. A party of cosy, Home Counties, NIMBYs with no answers to any of the problems the nation faces. Just more of the same and protecting entrenched wealth and privilege

    The new conservatives.

    Morning love! Glad we've got your attention!

    Like Reform you’ll get more now you are rising in the polls and will you survive the scrutiny ?

    You always go,on that Reform have no answers to problems in areas like where I live. Red wall, left behind, etc etc.

    What exactly do the Lib Dem’s offer us ? I cannot see anything. Their offer seems totally skewed towards the Home Counties and the middle,class.

    We’re invisible to them. Yet our council was run by a Lib Dem until recently.
    Lib Dem policy positions include radically more regional and local devolution, planning reform that allows for more not less development where it’s needed, a major overhaul of the social care system and investment in transport infrastructure (including, famously, fixing potholes). Plus some silly populist ideas on international tax which don’t add up but are certainly not designed to attract the Home Counties.

    I know Taz isn’t likely to switch vote to the LDs anytime soon, but I wouldn’t want any floating voters to think the party platform is nimbyism plus Gail’s bakeries on every high street as seems to be the populist right wing stereotype.

    "planning reform that allows for more not less development where it’s needed"

    Strangely, that development is never needed round the neighbourhood of LibDems.

    It's a regular feature that after LibDems have had local power for a while, the voters routinely turf them out, unimpressed.
    Amazingly the development is fine just ‘in the wrong place’ or in the case of the reservoir in Oxford ‘fix the leaks instead’
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,564

    What puzzles me about this reset saga is why Labour is still in thrall to the EU since a) it is an increasingly reactionary project and b) it is in serious economic trouble.


    Why does Labour want our laws to be set by the parties of Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, Geert Wilders or by Alternative for Germany, rather than by our own parliament?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/20/starmers-reset-inflicts-real-harm-on-the-british-economy

    The EU is our biggest trading partner, that doesn't change whoever leads each individual nation. The balance of power within the bloc will always ebb and flow to the right and left - see centrist mathematician Nicursor's recent win over MRGA Simion.

    Deals with the EU should be about dealing with the EU, not virtue signalling that we're not the USA or whatever.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,074
    nico67 said:

    Eabhal said:

    IanB2 said:

    nico67 said:

    With Starmer stupidly chasing the mainly mythical Labour to Reform switcher there’s always a chance they’ll lose even more voters to the Lib Dem’s and with even more Tory to Lib Dem switchers as the Tories implode it’s not as outlandish as might have been the case .

    Unless there is a dramatic change in their fortunes, the LDs are still batting in a relatively narrow range.

    Therefore the bet is essentially one on a (further) Tory collapse, like we saw in the locals. And gambling also that Reform neither collapses into scandal or divison, and that there isn't any deal between Reform and Tory.

    Putting all those together, I'm not yet convinced it's a very safe bet so far ahead of the election.
    This purported Reform <> Tory merger keeps being floated, mainly by desperate Tories hoping to remain relevant. From their perspective I get it - they think they would be in the driving seat. From Reform's perspective? Why merge with the thing you have defeated? They already have the voters the donors, the attention, the members.
    I don't get it from a Conservative perspective. I think it's still at least a 50:50 whether they are bigger than Reform at the next election. A merger makes that a 0% chance. They've got to stick it out to one more GE.
    But do Conservatives want to stick it out one more election? Even if they survive another defeat on an institutional level, that puts resurrection too far away on a personal career level.

    There's also an element of using rationality to justify the thing I want to do anyway (Hello Morgan! I'm sure you're reading this too.) For ages, some on the Conservative right have looked wistfully at Canada, where a populist party called Reform swallowed the wetter Conservatives whole.

    The catch is that it's not a brilliant tool for winning general elections. If we start the clock in 1993 (Kim Campbell: 2 seats), the Canadian right has been in opposition for 22 years out of 31.
    As happened in France the Republicans there imploded with many of their voters heading towards RN . We haven’t yet got the harder left here and I doubt we will unless there’s a change to our voting system .
    At least as many Republicans went to Macron's party and many former Socialists also went to RN
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,081
    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:



    .

    Taz said:

    A very definite yes. It would be a sad day for the U.K. for a party as awful as the Lib Dem’s to do so well. A party of cosy, Home Counties, NIMBYs with no answers to any of the problems the nation faces. Just more of the same and protecting entrenched wealth and privilege

    The new conservatives.

    Morning love! Glad we've got your attention!

    Like Reform you’ll get more now you are rising in the polls and will you survive the scrutiny ?

    You always go,on that Reform have no answers to problems in areas like where I live. Red wall, left behind, etc etc.

    What exactly do the Lib Dem’s offer us ? I cannot see anything. Their offer seems totally skewed towards the Home Counties and the middle,class.

    We’re invisible to them. Yet our council was run by a Lib Dem until recently.
    Lib Dem policy positions include radically more regional and local devolution, planning reform that allows for more not less development where it’s needed, a major overhaul of the social care system and investment in transport infrastructure (including, famously, fixing potholes). Plus some silly populist ideas on international tax which don’t add up but are certainly not designed to attract the Home Counties.

    I know Taz isn’t likely to switch vote to the LDs anytime soon, but I wouldn’t want any floating voters to think the party platform is nimbyism plus Gail’s bakeries on every high street as seems to be the populist right wing stereotype.

    "planning reform that allows for more not less development where it’s needed"

    Strangely, that development is never needed round the neighbourhood of LibDems.

    It's a regular feature that after LibDems have had local power for a while, the voters routinely turf them out, unimpressed.
    Amazingly the development is fine just ‘in the wrong place’ or in the case of the reservoir in Oxford ‘fix the leaks instead’
    We need development in new towns, and new reservoirs, as well as fixing leaks.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,924

    Foxy said:

    I see everyone is a critic of the indiscriminate slaughter of Gazans now. I wonder if there will be any reflection on the appeasement, selective silences and bothsidesism that got us to this point?
    (Answers own question: of course there won’t be, you stupid twat)

    I'm not in favour of the indiscriminate slaughter of anyone, anywhere in the world, but - personally - I find Israel/Palestine and Gaza/West Bank stuff boring.

    I only keep quiet because you get abuse if you don't echo along. But I'm not especially interested.
    Yes, I rarely comment on it for the same reason. The Hamas attack and kidnappings were a shocking act of terrorism but the Israeli response is openly genocidal.

    It touches so many culture war issues that it soaks up far too much attention, while Sudan, or the Eastern Congo get ignored.
    I'm surprised we agree, but pleased we do.
    I agree and I’m the same. Rarely comment. Already seen in this thread the implication criticism of Israel is anti semitic and only Israel are criticised for their actions. I’m sure that would come as a surprise to VVP of whom, apparently, I’m a defender alongside William and Luckyguy 😱
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,249
    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Surprised the inflation figure wasn't higher given the hammering I have had from every single supplier to the house this spring e.g. water up 17% FFS!!!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,302

    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Surprised the inflation figure wasn't higher given the hammering I have had from every single supplier to the house this spring e.g. water up 17% FFS!!!
    Average is 26%. So you've done ok.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,412
    I have to giggle slightly at the PB Tory attacks on the LibDems - the crossover yesterday was entirely coincidental of course.

    I have no doubt that conservatism has political and electoral appeal, its just that the former Conservative and Unionist does not. Former in that its no longer either conservative or unionist.

    So this isn't an attack on the moral/political positions of certain posters, just pointing out that you're still attached to a political corpse and because of that nobody is listening to you.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,593
    Let’s be blunt most people are NIMBYs .

    If you have a nice home in a nice green area altruism hits the buffers.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,249
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Surprised the inflation figure wasn't higher given the hammering I have had from every single supplier to the house this spring e.g. water up 17% FFS!!!
    Average is 26%. So you've done ok.
    Madness.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,924
    TimS said:

    Taz said:



    .

    Taz said:

    A very definite yes. It would be a sad day for the U.K. for a party as awful as the Lib Dem’s to do so well. A party of cosy, Home Counties, NIMBYs with no answers to any of the problems the nation faces. Just more of the same and protecting entrenched wealth and privilege

    The new conservatives.

    Morning love! Glad we've got your attention!

    Like Reform you’ll get more now you are rising in the polls and will you survive the scrutiny ?

    You always go,on that Reform have no answers to problems in areas like where I live. Red wall, left behind, etc etc.

    What exactly do the Lib Dem’s offer us ? I cannot see anything. Their offer seems totally skewed towards the Home Counties and the middle,class.

    We’re invisible to them. Yet our council was run by a Lib Dem until recently.
    Lib Dem policy positions include radically more regional and local devolution, planning reform that allows for more not less development where it’s needed, a major overhaul of the social care system and investment in transport infrastructure (including, famously, fixing potholes). Plus some silly populist ideas on international tax which don’t add up but are certainly not designed to attract the Home Counties.

    I know Taz isn’t likely to switch vote to the LDs anytime soon, but I wouldn’t want any floating voters to think the party platform is nimbyism plus Gail’s bakeries on every high street as seems to be the populist right wing stereotype.

    Well if it was a Choice of Britain First and Lib Dem I’d be there to vote Lib Dem when the polls open.

    All of the above are just words and really the sort of stuff you hear from oppositions that never get implemented when they see power.

    What, concrete, is their offer to the red wall and Reform areas. Davey talks a lot about rejecting Farage’s ‘policies of division and hate’ but this just strikes me as fluffing his Home Counties support as there’s nothing concrete for areas like this one to take votes from Reform
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,711
    Thanks for that header @TheScreamingEagles .

    As the polls stand (ignoring the silly electoral calculus on the current make up of the polls) it seems very likely the LDs will overtake the Tories, BUT that is based upon current polls and it is 4 years to go and the Tories have been very resilient in the past and a lot can change. At this stage I wouldn't back the LDs to make the break through (much as I want it), not Reform either, not the death of the Tories.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,617
    Good morning, everyone.

    Decent shot of the Lib Dems doing this but, as noted, the time frame does put me off.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 11,929

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Surprised the inflation figure wasn't higher given the hammering I have had from every single supplier to the house this spring e.g. water up 17% FFS!!!
    Average is 26%. So you've done ok.
    Madness.
    When was the last time you noticed a bill ever going up by only the inflation rate?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,564
    Within laddies offers must be the worst 7-2 bet ever lol.

    "Hung Parliament, Conservatives to win Most Seats & next Govt. to be a Conservatives + Reform UK coalition"
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 11,929

    Pagan2 said:

    Taz said:

    I see everyone is a critic of the indiscriminate slaughter of Gazans now. I wonder if there will be any reflection on the appeasement, selective silences and bothsidesism that got us to this point?
    (Answers own question: of course there won’t be, you stupid twat)

    As always there, we don't have an easy solution. Israel are doing terrible things to the Gazans. Hamas are doing terrible things to the Gazans. The international community doesn't want to intervene because it can't reward either side, and nobody is up for becoming the impartial military presence that gets murdered by Hamas
    Hamas have happily slaughtered Gazans who rise up, as you say.

    Barely a murmur here, especially from the PSC. Peter Tatchell raised it at the last protest and was promptly arrested and warned if he said Hamas were a terrorist group that could be a criminal offence.

    The Gazans are trying to,throw off Hamas. Israel has no intention of aiding them and neither have the west.
    The evidence that Gazans are trying to throw off Hamas (and I hope they are) is what exactly?
    That Hamas has not allowed elections since taking control of Gaza?
    Which is not evidence of anything other than Hamas not believing in democracy, they may well as in 2005 still get the largest vote share if there were elections we simply dont know
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,718
    nico67 said:

    Let’s be blunt most people are NIMBYs .

    If you have a nice home in a nice green area altruism hits the buffers.

    The UK's immigration strategy since 2000 is incompatible with nimbyism.

    This dichotomy is especially extreme in the LibDems who combine being the most obsessive nimbys with supporting unrestricted immigration from the EU.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,118

    What puzzles me about this reset saga is why Labour is still in thrall to the EU since a) it is an increasingly reactionary project and b) it is in serious economic trouble.


    Why does Labour want our laws to be set by the parties of Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, Geert Wilders or by Alternative for Germany, rather than by our own parliament?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/20/starmers-reset-inflicts-real-harm-on-the-british-economy

    It's the necessary damage limitation to Brexit. If you don't fix your mistake, you need to learn to live with it. Apart from May, belatedly, only Starmer has realised in the nine(!) years since the referendum what needs to be done. Unlike May, Starmer has a majority to put it into practice.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,886
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Surprised the inflation figure wasn't higher given the hammering I have had from every single supplier to the house this spring e.g. water up 17% FFS!!!
    Average is 26%. So you've done ok.
    Southern Water: 46.7% increase.
    (Bastards)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,074

    I have to giggle slightly at the PB Tory attacks on the LibDems - the crossover yesterday was entirely coincidental of course.

    I have no doubt that conservatism has political and electoral appeal, its just that the former Conservative and Unionist does not. Former in that its no longer either conservative or unionist.

    So this isn't an attack on the moral/political positions of certain posters, just pointing out that you're still attached to a political corpse and because of that nobody is listening to you.

    For starters there are more PB Reform than PB Tories on here now. The Tories are still the party of the traditional right just at present they have been overtaken by Reform as the party of the populist and nationalist right
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,797
    FF43 said:

    What puzzles me about this reset saga is why Labour is still in thrall to the EU since a) it is an increasingly reactionary project and b) it is in serious economic trouble.


    Why does Labour want our laws to be set by the parties of Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, Geert Wilders or by Alternative for Germany, rather than by our own parliament?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/20/starmers-reset-inflicts-real-harm-on-the-british-economy

    It's the necessary damage limitation to Brexit. If you don't fix your mistake, you need to learn to live with it. Apart from May, belatedly, only Starmer has realised in the nine(!) years since the referendum what needs to be done. Unlike May, Starmer has a majority to put it into practice.
    The “deal” is laughably bad. He didn’t even get e-gates
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 11,929
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    What puzzles me about this reset saga is why Labour is still in thrall to the EU since a) it is an increasingly reactionary project and b) it is in serious economic trouble.


    Why does Labour want our laws to be set by the parties of Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, Geert Wilders or by Alternative for Germany, rather than by our own parliament?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/20/starmers-reset-inflicts-real-harm-on-the-british-economy

    It's the necessary damage limitation to Brexit. If you don't fix your mistake, you need to learn to live with it. Apart from May, belatedly, only Starmer has realised in the nine(!) years since the referendum what needs to be done. Unlike May, Starmer has a majority to put it into practice.
    The “deal” is laughably bad. He didn’t even get e-gates
    Is there a list of actual concrete things the eu got and concrete things the uk got anywhere...ie excluding all the we will explore items on each side?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,624

    Taz said:

    I see everyone is a critic of the indiscriminate slaughter of Gazans now. I wonder if there will be any reflection on the appeasement, selective silences and bothsidesism that got us to this point?
    (Answers own question: of course there won’t be, you stupid twat)

    As always there, we don't have an easy solution. Israel are doing terrible things to the Gazans. Hamas are doing terrible things to the Gazans. The international community doesn't want to intervene because it can't reward either side, and nobody is up for becoming the impartial military presence that gets murdered by Hamas
    Hamas have happily slaughtered Gazans who rise up, as you say.

    Barely a murmur here, especially from the PSC. Peter Tatchell raised it at the last protest and was promptly arrested and warned if he said Hamas were a terrorist group that could be a criminal offence.

    The Gazans are trying to,throw off Hamas. Israel has no intention of aiding them and neither have the west.
    Tatchell was warned that shouting fire in a crowded theatre might be a criminal offence.
    That is not a comparison that should be made in a free society. The (perhaps inappropriate here) comparison is more with telling an attractive girl nicely dressed that she is inciting crimes by going out in the evenings and should stay at home reading an improving book.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,797
    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    What puzzles me about this reset saga is why Labour is still in thrall to the EU since a) it is an increasingly reactionary project and b) it is in serious economic trouble.


    Why does Labour want our laws to be set by the parties of Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, Geert Wilders or by Alternative for Germany, rather than by our own parliament?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/20/starmers-reset-inflicts-real-harm-on-the-british-economy

    It's the necessary damage limitation to Brexit. If you don't fix your mistake, you need to learn to live with it. Apart from May, belatedly, only Starmer has realised in the nine(!) years since the referendum what needs to be done. Unlike May, Starmer has a majority to put it into practice.
    The “deal” is laughably bad. He didn’t even get e-gates
    Is there a list of actual concrete things the eu got and concrete things the uk got anywhere...ie excluding all the we will explore items on each side?
    It’s all incredibly vague, but the outlines are bad for Britain

    The one definite decision is on fish: Starmer, who wanted to offer a deal for one year, and denied he would give away four years, got bullied at the last moment and gave away 12 years

    What’s more, the EU has got text in the agreement such that: if a future UK government with more bollocks (like, say, Reform) tries to amend this terrible fishing deal, the EU is allowed to hit us with trade sanctions. Yes
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,958
    edited May 21
    Pulpstar said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Surprised the inflation figure wasn't higher given the hammering I have had from every single supplier to the house this spring e.g. water up 17% FFS!!!
    Average is 26%. So you've done ok.
    Southern Water: 46.7% increase.
    (Bastards)
    The "value" of the water companies is determined by whatever the regulator allows them to stick water up by, and with OFWAT being so supine Thames' issues have given the rest of them an absolute goldmine. The increase should have been capped at cpi inflation and failed water companies bought by the state for a single shiny pound.
    The signal it sends out to other private utilities is a disaster. Expect them to start taking on massive debt/increasing dividends while doing no investment.
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 314
    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    What puzzles me about this reset saga is why Labour is still in thrall to the EU since a) it is an increasingly reactionary project and b) it is in serious economic trouble.


    Why does Labour want our laws to be set by the parties of Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, Geert Wilders or by Alternative for Germany, rather than by our own parliament?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/20/starmers-reset-inflicts-real-harm-on-the-british-economy

    It's the necessary damage limitation to Brexit. If you don't fix your mistake, you need to learn to live with it. Apart from May, belatedly, only Starmer has realised in the nine(!) years since the referendum what needs to be done. Unlike May, Starmer has a majority to put it into practice.
    The “deal” is laughably bad. He didn’t even get e-gates
    Is there a list of actual concrete things the eu got and concrete things the uk got anywhere...ie excluding all the we will explore items on each side?
    The main concession from the EU is the Home Office data stuff plus cold meat. The government doesn't really seem to be selling the former does it.

    Just relying on the 'we've done a deal' messaging is oddly reminiscent of the Tories obsession with new trade deals after Brexit e.g Australia.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 11,929
    Pulpstar said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Surprised the inflation figure wasn't higher given the hammering I have had from every single supplier to the house this spring e.g. water up 17% FFS!!!
    Average is 26%. So you've done ok.
    Southern Water: 46.7% increase.
    (Bastards)
    The "value" of the water companies is determined by whatever the regulator allows them to stick water up by, and with OFWAT being so supine Thames' issues have given the rest of them an absolute goldmine. The increase should have been capped at cpi inflation and failed water companies bought by the state for a single shiny pound.
    While I tend to agree that natural monopolys like water should probably be in state hands, I am also sceptical it would make things any better. The quality of our waterways in the 60's and 70's before privatisation was worse than currently by a long shot. Simple reason its easier to cut investment there than it is to cut investment in for example the NHS
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,682
    HYUFD said:

    I have to giggle slightly at the PB Tory attacks on the LibDems - the crossover yesterday was entirely coincidental of course.

    I have no doubt that conservatism has political and electoral appeal, its just that the former Conservative and Unionist does not. Former in that its no longer either conservative or unionist.

    So this isn't an attack on the moral/political positions of certain posters, just pointing out that you're still attached to a political corpse and because of that nobody is listening to you.

    For starters there are more PB Reform than PB Tories on here now. The Tories are still the party of the traditional right just at present they have been overtaken by Reform as the party of the populist and nationalist right
    Where do you get that statistic from

    Maybe some conservatives like myself are realistic and accept the problem but support Reform then no
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,593
    Labour will do more deals with the EU .

    Reform and the Tories come the next election threatening to tear up those deals will go down badly with much of the public .

    The business warnings before the EU ref were ignored as scaremongering , this time they won’t be .
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 24,558
    nico67 said:

    Labour will do more deals with the EU .

    Reform and the Tories come the next election threatening to tear up those deals will go down badly with much of the public .

    The business warnings before the EU ref were ignored as scaremongering , this time they won’t be .

    They were scaremongering.

    The million unemployed and all that other BS never transpired.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 939
    nico67 said:

    It is perfectly possible for the Lib Dems to gain more seats that the conservatives at the next election but in those circumstances I would expect them to remain the third party behind Reform and Labour

    Re Labour, I posted this on the last thread

    https://news.sky.com/story/revealed-why-keir-starmers-strategy-to-tackle-reform-uk-could-end-up-backfiring-13371866

    Do No 10 actually look at data from the polling ? One wonders !

    The biggest threat to Labour in the Red Wall is the collapse of the Tory vote to Reform not Labour to Reform switchers .

    Starmers useless advisor needs to go !
    In 4 years perhaps ....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,118
    edited May 21
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    What puzzles me about this reset saga is why Labour is still in thrall to the EU since a) it is an increasingly reactionary project and b) it is in serious economic trouble.


    Why does Labour want our laws to be set by the parties of Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, Geert Wilders or by Alternative for Germany, rather than by our own parliament?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/20/starmers-reset-inflicts-real-harm-on-the-british-economy

    It's the necessary damage limitation to Brexit. If you don't fix your mistake, you need to learn to live with it. Apart from May, belatedly, only Starmer has realised in the nine(!) years since the referendum what needs to be done. Unlike May, Starmer has a majority to put it into practice.
    The “deal” is laughably bad. He didn’t even get e-gates
    State of play here. I think it's fair to say, work in progress. The key stuff is in the "Negotiations" column. These should translate into concrete deals. The upside for the UK is modest to significant depending on how it plays out, and your expectations, but I don't see a lot of downside. Starmer will reasonably claim he's made improvements when no-one else has.

    A point about the fishing deal, while the Boris arrangement was billed as "temporary" a concurrent electricity trading deal would also not be renewed next year if the fishing one wasn't, so in practice both deals are permanent.





    https://bsky.app/profile/simonusherwood.bsky.social/post/3lpjpjv7ogf2p
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 11,929
    nico67 said:

    Labour will do more deals with the EU .

    Reform and the Tories come the next election threatening to tear up those deals will go down badly with much of the public .

    The business warnings before the EU ref were ignored as scaremongering , this time they won’t be .

    I suspect it more likely that most of the public will realise that these deals being done will change their lives not one iota and wonder what all the fuss was about over these deals.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,696
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    What puzzles me about this reset saga is why Labour is still in thrall to the EU since a) it is an increasingly reactionary project and b) it is in serious economic trouble.


    Why does Labour want our laws to be set by the parties of Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, Geert Wilders or by Alternative for Germany, rather than by our own parliament?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/20/starmers-reset-inflicts-real-harm-on-the-british-economy

    It's the necessary damage limitation to Brexit. If you don't fix your mistake, you need to learn to live with it. Apart from May, belatedly, only Starmer has realised in the nine(!) years since the referendum what needs to be done. Unlike May, Starmer has a majority to put it into practice.
    The “deal” is laughably bad. He didn’t even get e-gates
    I see your copy of the Daily Express arrived on time this morning.
  • ManOfGwentManOfGwent Posts: 181
    nico67 said:

    Labour will do more deals with the EU .

    Reform and the Tories come the next election threatening to tear up those deals will go down badly with much of the public .

    The business warnings before the EU ref were ignored as scaremongering , this time they won’t be .

    Lets be fair, Starmer's negotiating tactic seems to be asking the other side where they would like him to bend over. The public seem to be starting to be aware of this, hence the Chagos delay. Can't see any future EU deals being anymore popular on current form.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 11,929
    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    What puzzles me about this reset saga is why Labour is still in thrall to the EU since a) it is an increasingly reactionary project and b) it is in serious economic trouble.


    Why does Labour want our laws to be set by the parties of Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, Geert Wilders or by Alternative for Germany, rather than by our own parliament?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/20/starmers-reset-inflicts-real-harm-on-the-british-economy

    It's the necessary damage limitation to Brexit. If you don't fix your mistake, you need to learn to live with it. Apart from May, belatedly, only Starmer has realised in the nine(!) years since the referendum what needs to be done. Unlike May, Starmer has a majority to put it into practice.
    The “deal” is laughably bad. He didn’t even get e-gates
    State of play here. I think it's fair to say, work in progress. The key stuff is in the "Negotiations" column. These should translate into concrete deals. The upside for the UK is modest to significant depending on how it plays out, and your expectations, but I don't see a lot of downside. Starmer will reasonably claim he's made improvements when no-one else has.

    A point about the fishing deal, while the Boris arrangement was billed as "temporary" a concurrent electricity trading deal would also not be renewed next year if the fishing one wasn't, so in practice both deals are permanent.





    https://bsky.app/profile/simonusherwood.bsky.social/post/3lpjpjv7ogf2p
    I asked for concrete things that had been agreed, sorry negotiations dont cut it because they have a way of not going anywhere.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,593

    nico67 said:

    Labour will do more deals with the EU .

    Reform and the Tories come the next election threatening to tear up those deals will go down badly with much of the public .

    The business warnings before the EU ref were ignored as scaremongering , this time they won’t be .

    They were scaremongering.

    The million unemployed and all that other BS never transpired.
    Just as the EU got scapegoated so will Brexit. The unfortunate timing of Covid , then Ukraine mean the Brexit brand got caught up with the problems those caused . And even without those certain sectors have suffered . Labour will make loads more deals and Reform Tory threatening to rip them all up won’t go down well .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,564

    Taz said:

    I see everyone is a critic of the indiscriminate slaughter of Gazans now. I wonder if there will be any reflection on the appeasement, selective silences and bothsidesism that got us to this point?
    (Answers own question: of course there won’t be, you stupid twat)

    As always there, we don't have an easy solution. Israel are doing terrible things to the Gazans. Hamas are doing terrible things to the Gazans. The international community doesn't want to intervene because it can't reward either side, and nobody is up for becoming the impartial military presence that gets murdered by Hamas
    Hamas have happily slaughtered Gazans who rise up, as you say.

    Barely a murmur here, especially from the PSC. Peter Tatchell raised it at the last protest and was promptly arrested and warned if he said Hamas were a terrorist group that could be a criminal offence.

    The Gazans are trying to,throw off Hamas. Israel has no intention of aiding them and neither have the west.
    Tatchell was warned that shouting fire in a crowded theatre might be a criminal offence.
    Which is an absurd metaphorical comparison by the MET.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,298
    nico67 said:

    Let’s be blunt most people are NIMBYs .

    If you have a nice home in a nice green area altruism hits the buffers.

    I am - deities willing - a week or so from completing the purchase of a house, at long last.

    The estimated population within 1km of the house is 75, and doubtless I am about to spend and borrow a considerable sum of money for this facet of the location. Of course I want to keep it that way.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,924

    Taz said:



    .

    Taz said:

    A very definite yes. It would be a sad day for the U.K. for a party as awful as the Lib Dem’s to do so well. A party of cosy, Home Counties, NIMBYs with no answers to any of the problems the nation faces. Just more of the same and protecting entrenched wealth and privilege

    The new conservatives.

    Morning love! Glad we've got your attention!

    Like Reform you’ll get more now you are rising in the polls and will you survive the scrutiny ?

    You always go,on that Reform have no answers to problems in areas like where I live. Red wall, left behind, etc etc.

    What exactly do the Lib Dem’s offer us ? I cannot see anything. Their offer seems totally skewed towards the Home Counties and the middle,class.

    We’re invisible to them. Yet our council was run by a Lib Dem until recently.
    You can elect any colour you like to the council - the budget deficit and annual ever shrinking funding crisis remain the same. There are a few odd pockets of competence where a brilliant officers team and "yeah lets do that" councillors are warding off the worst of it. But in most places the decline is terminal by means of LabCon government policy to bankrupt local authorities.
    So to my question what do the Lib Dem’s offer us the answer is nothing just some stuff about councils which I already knew and wasn’t my question.

    My point about the Lib Dem leader of Durham council is in relation to our invisibility to them nationally.
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 314

    nico67 said:

    Labour will do more deals with the EU .

    Reform and the Tories come the next election threatening to tear up those deals will go down badly with much of the public .

    The business warnings before the EU ref were ignored as scaremongering , this time they won’t be .

    Lets be fair, Starmer's negotiating tactic seems to be asking the other side where they would like him to bend over. The public seem to be starting to be aware of this, hence the Chagos delay. Can't see any future EU deals being anymore popular on current form.
    But in many ways Starmer is borrowing from the Tory (certainly Johnson/Truss) playbook. Just look at the Australia deal we did.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,924

    Taz said:

    I see everyone is a critic of the indiscriminate slaughter of Gazans now. I wonder if there will be any reflection on the appeasement, selective silences and bothsidesism that got us to this point?
    (Answers own question: of course there won’t be, you stupid twat)

    As always there, we don't have an easy solution. Israel are doing terrible things to the Gazans. Hamas are doing terrible things to the Gazans. The international community doesn't want to intervene because it can't reward either side, and nobody is up for becoming the impartial military presence that gets murdered by Hamas
    Hamas have happily slaughtered Gazans who rise up, as you say.

    Barely a murmur here, especially from the PSC. Peter Tatchell raised it at the last protest and was promptly arrested and warned if he said Hamas were a terrorist group that could be a criminal offence.

    The Gazans are trying to,throw off Hamas. Israel has no intention of aiding them and neither have the west.
    Tatchell was warned that shouting fire in a crowded theatre might be a criminal offence.
    You're permitted to shout fire if the theatre is actually on fire.

    It's doing so falsely to cause panic that is not OK.

    What Tatchell said was objectively correct and true.
    Absolutely true. Nothing Tatchell said or had on his sign was incorrect.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,924
    nico67 said:

    Labour will do more deals with the EU .

    Reform and the Tories come the next election threatening to tear up those deals will go down badly with much of the public .

    The business warnings before the EU ref were ignored as scaremongering , this time they won’t be .

    If Labour move us towards a Norwegian type of deal then fine.
  • ManOfGwentManOfGwent Posts: 181

    nico67 said:

    Labour will do more deals with the EU .

    Reform and the Tories come the next election threatening to tear up those deals will go down badly with much of the public .

    The business warnings before the EU ref were ignored as scaremongering , this time they won’t be .

    Lets be fair, Starmer's negotiating tactic seems to be asking the other side where they would like him to bend over. The public seem to be starting to be aware of this, hence the Chagos delay. Can't see any future EU deals being anymore popular on current form.
    But in many ways Starmer is borrowing from the Tory (certainly Johnson/Truss) playbook. Just look at the Australia deal we did.
    Yes, and the Tories went down to a record defeat, not really a great precedent to follow.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,118
    Pagan2 said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    What puzzles me about this reset saga is why Labour is still in thrall to the EU since a) it is an increasingly reactionary project and b) it is in serious economic trouble.


    Why does Labour want our laws to be set by the parties of Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, Geert Wilders or by Alternative for Germany, rather than by our own parliament?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/20/starmers-reset-inflicts-real-harm-on-the-british-economy

    It's the necessary damage limitation to Brexit. If you don't fix your mistake, you need to learn to live with it. Apart from May, belatedly, only Starmer has realised in the nine(!) years since the referendum what needs to be done. Unlike May, Starmer has a majority to put it into practice.
    The “deal” is laughably bad. He didn’t even get e-gates
    State of play here. I think it's fair to say, work in progress. The key stuff is in the "Negotiations" column. These should translate into concrete deals. The upside for the UK is modest to significant depending on how it plays out, and your expectations, but I don't see a lot of downside. Starmer will reasonably claim he's made improvements when no-one else has.

    A point about the fishing deal, while the Boris arrangement was billed as "temporary" a concurrent electricity trading deal would also not be renewed next year if the fishing one wasn't, so in practice both deals are permanent.





    https://bsky.app/profile/simonusherwood.bsky.social/post/3lpjpjv7ogf2p
    I asked for concrete things that had been agreed, sorry negotiations dont cut it because they have a way of not going anywhere.
    You don't get final agreement until you have negotiations first - some of those are quite advanced in my understanding. So maybe wait and see?

    I should add I wasn't responding to your earlier question.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,924

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Surprised the inflation figure wasn't higher given the hammering I have had from every single supplier to the house this spring e.g. water up 17% FFS!!!
    Average is 26%. So you've done ok.
    Southern Water: 46.7% increase.
    (Bastards)
    Our increase from Northumbrian is around 29% over five years with 25% in the first year, bastards.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,797
    Pagan2 said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    What puzzles me about this reset saga is why Labour is still in thrall to the EU since a) it is an increasingly reactionary project and b) it is in serious economic trouble.


    Why does Labour want our laws to be set by the parties of Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, Geert Wilders or by Alternative for Germany, rather than by our own parliament?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/20/starmers-reset-inflicts-real-harm-on-the-british-economy

    It's the necessary damage limitation to Brexit. If you don't fix your mistake, you need to learn to live with it. Apart from May, belatedly, only Starmer has realised in the nine(!) years since the referendum what needs to be done. Unlike May, Starmer has a majority to put it into practice.
    The “deal” is laughably bad. He didn’t even get e-gates
    State of play here. I think it's fair to say, work in progress. The key stuff is in the "Negotiations" column. These should translate into concrete deals. The upside for the UK is modest to significant depending on how it plays out, and your expectations, but I don't see a lot of downside. Starmer will reasonably claim he's made improvements when no-one else has.

    A point about the fishing deal, while the Boris arrangement was billed as "temporary" a concurrent electricity trading deal would also not be renewed next year if the fishing one wasn't, so in practice both deals are permanent.





    https://bsky.app/profile/simonusherwood.bsky.social/post/3lpjpjv7ogf2p
    I asked for concrete things that had been agreed, sorry negotiations dont cut it because they have a way of not going anywhere.
    It’s fish. We’ve given away all our fish for seven million years

    If you insist, we’ve also agreed to pay hard cash so we can PERHAPS be considered as a bidder for defence contracts; yes, we pay money, they offer a vague promise

    That’s it

    Like I said, Starmer’s “no e-gates deal” is like one of those budgets that looks OK at first. Then after a few hours you think Hmm. Then after a day or two of examining it, you realise it is atrociously bad
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 24,558

    nico67 said:

    Let’s be blunt most people are NIMBYs .

    If you have a nice home in a nice green area altruism hits the buffers.

    I am - deities willing - a week or so from completing the purchase of a house, at long last.

    The estimated population within 1km of the house is 75, and doubtless I am about to spend and borrow a considerable sum of money for this facet of the location. Of course I want to keep it that way.
    If you wish to buy that square km, or chip in with your neighbours to do so, then you absolutely can do.

    If not, your rights should end at the end of your land, just as people said during Covid that your rights end at the end of your nose.

    If other people want to build homes on that land, and they own it, why should they be denied a home which you have?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,105

    nico67 said:

    Labour will do more deals with the EU .

    Reform and the Tories come the next election threatening to tear up those deals will go down badly with much of the public .

    The business warnings before the EU ref were ignored as scaremongering , this time they won’t be .

    Lets be fair, Starmer's negotiating tactic seems to be asking the other side where they would like him to bend over. The public seem to be starting to be aware of this, hence the Chagos delay. Can't see any future EU deals being anymore popular on current form.
    But in many ways Starmer is borrowing from the Tory (certainly Johnson/Truss) playbook. Just look at the Australia deal we did.
    Didn't Boris drunkenly sign off the Aussie deal on a napkin? Sir Keir's deal may be a bit incremental but at least its not an explosion of destructive negligence.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,303

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Surprised the inflation figure wasn't higher given the hammering I have had from every single supplier to the house this spring e.g. water up 17% FFS!!!
    Average is 26%. So you've done ok.
    Southern Water: 46.7% increase.
    (Bastards)
    You Southerners get fleeced, up in Yorkshire we only had a 29% increase.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 939
    Taz said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Surprised the inflation figure wasn't higher given the hammering I have had from every single supplier to the house this spring e.g. water up 17% FFS!!!
    Average is 26%. So you've done ok.
    Southern Water: 46.7% increase.
    (Bastards)
    Our increase from Northumbrian is around 29% over five years with 25% in the first year, bastards.
    Will they come back for more in the next 4 years perhaps? That door is wide open.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,757
    Taz said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Surprised the inflation figure wasn't higher given the hammering I have had from every single supplier to the house this spring e.g. water up 17% FFS!!!
    Average is 26%. So you've done ok.
    Southern Water: 46.7% increase.
    (Bastards)
    Our increase from Northumbrian is around 29% over five years with 25% in the first year, bastards.
    Mine was up by about 25%, but that's only £4 a month. Compared with gas and electric I don't think it's a big component of inflation metrics
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,891
    nico67 said:

    Let’s be blunt most people are NIMBYs .

    If you have a nice home in a nice green area altruism hits the buffers.

    The privileged need to realise that things must change, if they want them to stay the same.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,924

    I have to giggle slightly at the PB Tory attacks on the LibDems - the crossover yesterday was entirely coincidental of course.

    I have no doubt that conservatism has political and electoral appeal, its just that the former Conservative and Unionist does not. Former in that its no longer either conservative or unionist.

    So this isn't an attack on the moral/political positions of certain posters, just pointing out that you're still attached to a political corpse and because of that nobody is listening to you.

    I’m not a Tory, in spite of what that imbecile with a Herbie avatar claims, and I will attack the Lib Dem’s for their lack of policies especially towards the red wall. It is not unreasonable to ask a national party what are their policies for your area and attacking them does not make you a Tory.

    I’m afraid your party, like Reform, is going to be subject to more scrutiny as it rises up the polls. You need to be able to answer points and refute rather than just dissembling
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,568
    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    Let’s be blunt most people are NIMBYs .

    If you have a nice home in a nice green area altruism hits the buffers.

    The privileged need to realise that things must change, if they want them to stay the same.
    What needs to change is for immigration to become either negative, nil, or less than 10K a year, as the majority of people want according to the latest polling.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,212

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    What puzzles me about this reset saga is why Labour is still in thrall to the EU since a) it is an increasingly reactionary project and b) it is in serious economic trouble.


    Why does Labour want our laws to be set by the parties of Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, Geert Wilders or by Alternative for Germany, rather than by our own parliament?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/20/starmers-reset-inflicts-real-harm-on-the-british-economy

    It's the necessary damage limitation to Brexit. If you don't fix your mistake, you need to learn to live with it. Apart from May, belatedly, only Starmer has realised in the nine(!) years since the referendum what needs to be done. Unlike May, Starmer has a majority to put it into practice.
    The “deal” is laughably bad. He didn’t even get e-gates
    Is there a list of actual concrete things the eu got and concrete things the uk got anywhere...ie excluding all the we will explore items on each side?
    The main concession from the EU is the Home Office data stuff plus cold meat. The government doesn't really seem to be selling the former does it.

    Just relying on the 'we've done a deal' messaging is oddly reminiscent of the Tories obsession with new trade deals after Brexit e.g Australia.
    The agreement on foods is far more beneficial to the UK than the EU.
    To ignore that as a benefit of the deal is not to analyse it seriously.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,886
    edited May 21

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Surprised the inflation figure wasn't higher given the hammering I have had from every single supplier to the house this spring e.g. water up 17% FFS!!!
    Average is 26%. So you've done ok.
    Southern Water: 46.7% increase.
    (Bastards)
    You Southerners get fleeced, up in Yorkshire we only had a 29% increase.
    And of course Yorkshire water is much superior to poncy Southern water.

    Though seriously, I'm surprised Southern got away with a 46.7% increase this year with relatively little kerfuffle.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,303

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Surprised the inflation figure wasn't higher given the hammering I have had from every single supplier to the house this spring e.g. water up 17% FFS!!!
    Average is 26%. So you've done ok.
    Southern Water: 46.7% increase.
    (Bastards)
    You Southerners get fleeced, up in Yorkshire we only had a 29% increase.
    And of course Yorkshire water is much superior to poncy Southern water.
    Amen my brother in Christ.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 24,558
    Nigelb said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    What puzzles me about this reset saga is why Labour is still in thrall to the EU since a) it is an increasingly reactionary project and b) it is in serious economic trouble.


    Why does Labour want our laws to be set by the parties of Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, Geert Wilders or by Alternative for Germany, rather than by our own parliament?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/20/starmers-reset-inflicts-real-harm-on-the-british-economy

    It's the necessary damage limitation to Brexit. If you don't fix your mistake, you need to learn to live with it. Apart from May, belatedly, only Starmer has realised in the nine(!) years since the referendum what needs to be done. Unlike May, Starmer has a majority to put it into practice.
    The “deal” is laughably bad. He didn’t even get e-gates
    Is there a list of actual concrete things the eu got and concrete things the uk got anywhere...ie excluding all the we will explore items on each side?
    The main concession from the EU is the Home Office data stuff plus cold meat. The government doesn't really seem to be selling the former does it.

    Just relying on the 'we've done a deal' messaging is oddly reminiscent of the Tories obsession with new trade deals after Brexit e.g Australia.
    The agreement on foods is far more beneficial to the UK than the EU.
    To ignore that as a benefit of the deal is not to analyse it seriously.
    Because now we get to smother our nascent biotechnology industry by handing away all our regulatory powers and democratic control and just blindly sign up to whatever regulations the EU create, whether we think they're a good idea or not?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,998
    edited May 21
    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    What puzzles me about this reset saga is why Labour is still in thrall to the EU since a) it is an increasingly reactionary project and b) it is in serious economic trouble.


    Why does Labour want our laws to be set by the parties of Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, Geert Wilders or by Alternative for Germany, rather than by our own parliament?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/20/starmers-reset-inflicts-real-harm-on-the-british-economy

    It's the necessary damage limitation to Brexit. If you don't fix your mistake, you need to learn to live with it. Apart from May, belatedly, only Starmer has realised in the nine(!) years since the referendum what needs to be done. Unlike May, Starmer has a majority to put it into practice.
    The “deal” is laughably bad. He didn’t even get e-gates
    State of play here. I think it's fair to say, work in progress. The key stuff is in the "Negotiations" column. These should translate into concrete deals. The upside for the UK is modest to significant depending on how it plays out, and your expectations, but I don't see a lot of downside. Starmer will reasonably claim he's made improvements when no-one else has.

    A point about the fishing deal, while the Boris arrangement was billed as "temporary" a concurrent electricity trading deal would also not be renewed next year if the fishing one wasn't, so in practice both deals are permanent.





    https://bsky.app/profile/simonusherwood.bsky.social/post/3lpjpjv7ogf2p
    I asked for concrete things that had been agreed, sorry negotiations dont cut it because they have a way of not going anywhere.
    It’s fish. We’ve given away all our fish for seven million years

    If you insist, we’ve also agreed to pay hard cash so we can PERHAPS be considered as a bidder for defence contracts; yes, we pay money, they offer a vague promise

    That’s it

    Like I said, Starmer’s “no e-gates deal” is like one of those budgets that looks OK at first. Then after a few hours you think Hmm. Then after a day or two of examining it, you realise it is atrociously bad
    The strange thing Starmer has done is the self congratulatory tweets telling holiday makers they’ll be straight to the beach now thanks to his egates deal, when it doesn’t come into place until October. Surely inviting five months worth of complaints to announce this in May?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,303
    edited May 21

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Surprised the inflation figure wasn't higher given the hammering I have had from every single supplier to the house this spring e.g. water up 17% FFS!!!
    Average is 26%. So you've done ok.
    Southern Water: 46.7% increase.
    (Bastards)
    You Southerners get fleeced, up in Yorkshire we only had a 29% increase.
    And of course Yorkshire water is much superior to poncy Southern water.

    Though seriously, I'm surprised Southern got away with a 46.7% increase this year with relatively little kerfuffle.
    I am an unabashed free marketeer but the water companies turn me into a Marxist, especially Thames Water.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 11,929

    Taz said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Surprised the inflation figure wasn't higher given the hammering I have had from every single supplier to the house this spring e.g. water up 17% FFS!!!
    Average is 26%. So you've done ok.
    Southern Water: 46.7% increase.
    (Bastards)
    Our increase from Northumbrian is around 29% over five years with 25% in the first year, bastards.
    Mine was up by about 25%, but that's only £4 a month. Compared with gas and electric I don't think it's a big component of inflation metrics
    Hmmm rents rose on average by 7.8%
    Water by 25%
    Gas and electic by 6%
    Council tax by 5%
    Food by 3.3%
    Clothing by 10.6%
    buses by 50%
    trains (outside london) by 4.6%

    We are expected however to believe that inflation is only 3.5% despite the fact the only one of these figures under 3.5% only accounts on average 11.6% of spending for most families.

    Does not compute
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,797
    Nigelb said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    What puzzles me about this reset saga is why Labour is still in thrall to the EU since a) it is an increasingly reactionary project and b) it is in serious economic trouble.


    Why does Labour want our laws to be set by the parties of Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, Geert Wilders or by Alternative for Germany, rather than by our own parliament?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/20/starmers-reset-inflicts-real-harm-on-the-british-economy

    It's the necessary damage limitation to Brexit. If you don't fix your mistake, you need to learn to live with it. Apart from May, belatedly, only Starmer has realised in the nine(!) years since the referendum what needs to be done. Unlike May, Starmer has a majority to put it into practice.
    The “deal” is laughably bad. He didn’t even get e-gates
    Is there a list of actual concrete things the eu got and concrete things the uk got anywhere...ie excluding all the we will explore items on each side?
    The main concession from the EU is the Home Office data stuff plus cold meat. The government doesn't really seem to be selling the former does it.

    Just relying on the 'we've done a deal' messaging is oddly reminiscent of the Tories obsession with new trade deals after Brexit e.g Australia.
    The agreement on foods is far more beneficial to the UK than the EU.
    To ignore that as a benefit of the deal is not to analyse it seriously.
    What part of ITS NOT AGREED YET don’t you understand?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,886

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Surprised the inflation figure wasn't higher given the hammering I have had from every single supplier to the house this spring e.g. water up 17% FFS!!!
    Average is 26%. So you've done ok.
    Southern Water: 46.7% increase.
    (Bastards)
    You Southerners get fleeced, up in Yorkshire we only had a 29% increase.
    And of course Yorkshire water is much superior to poncy Southern water.

    Though seriously, I'm surprised Southern got away with a 46.7% increase this year with relatively little kerfuffle.
    I am an unabashed free marketeer but the water companies turn me into a Marxist.
    Welcome, comrade.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,185
    Andy_JS said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    Let’s be blunt most people are NIMBYs .

    If you have a nice home in a nice green area altruism hits the buffers.

    The privileged need to realise that things must change, if they want them to stay the same.
    What needs to change is for immigration to become either negative, nil, or less than 10K a year, as the majority of people want according to the latest polling.
    That's impossible without economic depressiom, which is why first Johnson, and then Farage won't be able to deliver it.

    What that would really need is for a rightwing politician to.really commit to something very out of character - cast-iron commitments to lift the education and training budget over a number of years, such that the above can be attempted again after a clearly defined number of years.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,212
    Pagan2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Surprised the inflation figure wasn't higher given the hammering I have had from every single supplier to the house this spring e.g. water up 17% FFS!!!
    Average is 26%. So you've done ok.
    Southern Water: 46.7% increase.
    (Bastards)
    The "value" of the water companies is determined by whatever the regulator allows them to stick water up by, and with OFWAT being so supine Thames' issues have given the rest of them an absolute goldmine. The increase should have been capped at cpi inflation and failed water companies bought by the state for a single shiny pound.
    While I tend to agree that natural monopolys like water should probably be in state hands, I am also sceptical it would make things any better. The quality of our waterways in the 60's and 70's before privatisation was worse than currently by a long shot. Simple reason its easier to cut investment there than it is to cut investment in for example the NHS
    For a start, tens of billions in dividends would not have been funnelled off overseas.
    Which is likely to be repeated all over again, if Thames is surrendered to KKR.

    Even if you accept the management of the assets would be no different, having it in public ownership would mean cheaper borrowing costs (they're currently paying 10% interest on short term loans), and any profits being retained by the UK.

    Indeed you could contract out the management of the assets by tender, on a time limited basis.

    You could also get rid of OFWAT completely.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,212
    nico67 said:

    Labour will do more deals with the EU .

    Reform and the Tories come the next election threatening to tear up those deals will go down badly with much of the public .

    The business warnings before the EU ref were ignored as scaremongering , this time they won’t be .

    The ludicrous vaporings ('traitorous" etc) over what is basically a quite limited deal are quite absurd. I rather hope Reform try to keep that up for the next three years.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,894

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Surprised the inflation figure wasn't higher given the hammering I have had from every single supplier to the house this spring e.g. water up 17% FFS!!!
    Average is 26%. So you've done ok.
    Southern Water: 46.7% increase.
    (Bastards)
    You Southerners get fleeced, up in Yorkshire we only had a 29% increase.
    And of course Yorkshire water is much superior to poncy Southern water.

    Though seriously, I'm surprised Southern got away with a 46.7% increase this year with relatively little kerfuffle.
    Full of reet good Yorkshire sewage rather than that effete southern muck.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,593
    edited May 21
    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour will do more deals with the EU .

    Reform and the Tories come the next election threatening to tear up those deals will go down badly with much of the public .

    The business warnings before the EU ref were ignored as scaremongering , this time they won’t be .

    If Labour move us towards a Norwegian type of deal then fine.
    That comes with FOM although with a few more restrictions. It’s still political kryptonite . I expect there will loads of smaller deals with the EU over the next few years .

    There’s an interesting take on things here suggesting Starmers actions are the reverse of the Brexit betrayal narrative . I’d be interested to see what others think . Particularly on the Remainers Paradox .

    https://bsky.app/profile/matthewholehouse.bsky.social/post/3lpmism7xjs2g
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,797
    Nigelb said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour will do more deals with the EU .

    Reform and the Tories come the next election threatening to tear up those deals will go down badly with much of the public .

    The business warnings before the EU ref were ignored as scaremongering , this time they won’t be .

    The ludicrous vaporings ('traitorous" etc) over what is basically a quite limited deal are quite absurd. I rather hope Reform try to keep that up for the next three years.
    Me too. Reform are up to 29, Lab are down to 22, and CON are - chortle - on 16
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,298

    nico67 said:

    Let’s be blunt most people are NIMBYs .

    If you have a nice home in a nice green area altruism hits the buffers.

    I am - deities willing - a week or so from completing the purchase of a house, at long last.

    The estimated population within 1km of the house is 75, and doubtless I am about to spend and borrow a considerable sum of money for this facet of the location. Of course I want to keep it that way.
    If you wish to buy that square km, or chip in with your neighbours to do so, then you absolutely can do.

    If not, your rights should end at the end of your land, just as people said during Covid that your rights end at the end of your nose.

    If other people want to build homes on that land, and they own it, why should they be denied a home which you have?
    The area within a circle of radius 1km is about 22/7 sqkm.

    I do not assert any right to land that I do not own, but that does not prevent me from expressing a preference, and it is natural and obvious what my preference would be.

    Politics and democracy has developed over the centuries as the least worst way to resolve conflicts and disagreements between different members of society. The necessity to build more homes and infrastructure while ameliorating the ruffled feathers of those who lose out as a result, is one such conflict.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 11,929
    Nigelb said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Surprised the inflation figure wasn't higher given the hammering I have had from every single supplier to the house this spring e.g. water up 17% FFS!!!
    Average is 26%. So you've done ok.
    Southern Water: 46.7% increase.
    (Bastards)
    The "value" of the water companies is determined by whatever the regulator allows them to stick water up by, and with OFWAT being so supine Thames' issues have given the rest of them an absolute goldmine. The increase should have been capped at cpi inflation and failed water companies bought by the state for a single shiny pound.
    While I tend to agree that natural monopolys like water should probably be in state hands, I am also sceptical it would make things any better. The quality of our waterways in the 60's and 70's before privatisation was worse than currently by a long shot. Simple reason its easier to cut investment there than it is to cut investment in for example the NHS
    For a start, tens of billions in dividends would not have been funnelled off overseas.
    Which is likely to be repeated all over again, if Thames is surrendered to KKR.

    Even if you accept the management of the assets would be no different, having it in public ownership would mean cheaper borrowing costs (they're currently paying 10% interest on short term loans), and any profits being retained by the UK.

    Indeed you could contract out the management of the assets by tender, on a time limited basis.

    You could also get rid of OFWAT completely.
    I am not saying it wouldn't have upsides merely pointing out when water was nationalised pre privatisation it was still in a shit state and our waterways were nearer to being open sewers than they are currently.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,212

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Surprised the inflation figure wasn't higher given the hammering I have had from every single supplier to the house this spring e.g. water up 17% FFS!!!
    Average is 26%. So you've done ok.
    Southern Water: 46.7% increase.
    (Bastards)
    You Southerners get fleeced, up in Yorkshire we only had a 29% increase.
    Just fleeced a bit less.
    Fleeced nonetheless.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,081

    Taz said:

    I see everyone is a critic of the indiscriminate slaughter of Gazans now. I wonder if there will be any reflection on the appeasement, selective silences and bothsidesism that got us to this point?
    (Answers own question: of course there won’t be, you stupid twat)

    As always there, we don't have an easy solution. Israel are doing terrible things to the Gazans. Hamas are doing terrible things to the Gazans. The international community doesn't want to intervene because it can't reward either side, and nobody is up for becoming the impartial military presence that gets murdered by Hamas
    Hamas have happily slaughtered Gazans who rise up, as you say.

    Barely a murmur here, especially from the PSC. Peter Tatchell raised it at the last protest and was promptly arrested and warned if he said Hamas were a terrorist group that could be a criminal offence.

    The Gazans are trying to,throw off Hamas. Israel has no intention of aiding them and neither have the west.
    Tatchell was warned that shouting fire in a crowded theatre might be a criminal offence.
    The point is why should criticising Hamas be controversial. What does it tell you about these demos? That the people on them get so angry at someone criticising Hamas it might cause a riot?

    There have been some (very brave) anti Hamas demonstrations in Gaza to go with the pro Hamas demos in London and elsewhere in the west.
    Police SOP is to keep opposing demonstrators and indeed football fans apart.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,678
    edited May 21
    Morning all :)

    Far too early in the electoral cycle to be confident about any prediction. I can see a route to 95 seats for the LDs but after that it becomes more difficult.

    Yes, they and Reform will face much greater scrutiny if in a strong polling position approaching the election but so will the Conservatives and of course Labour (and the Greens) and that's how it should be.

    Farage, Davey and Badenoch don't have to worry about detailed policy at this stage but that will change. For now, the Government is the punch bag.

    As for the bet, I wouldn't go near it at this time.

    Indeed, More in Common this morning has a seven point gap between the Conservatives and LDs and Labour and the Conservatives in a statistical tie for second place.

    Putting those through Baxter, however, and you still get 56 LDs to 53 Conservatives so the bet wins so the LD-Conservative gap isn't as significant to the bet outcome as how the Conservatives are faring against Reform.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,958
    edited May 21
    Pagan2 said:

    Taz said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Surprised the inflation figure wasn't higher given the hammering I have had from every single supplier to the house this spring e.g. water up 17% FFS!!!
    Average is 26%. So you've done ok.
    Southern Water: 46.7% increase.
    (Bastards)
    Our increase from Northumbrian is around 29% over five years with 25% in the first year, bastards.
    Mine was up by about 25%, but that's only £4 a month. Compared with gas and electric I don't think it's a big component of inflation metrics
    Hmmm rents rose on average by 7.8%
    Water by 25%
    Gas and electic by 6%
    Council tax by 5%
    Food by 3.3%
    Clothing by 10.6%
    buses by 50%
    trains (outside london) by 4.6%

    We are expected however to believe that inflation is only 3.5% despite the fact the only one of these figures under 3.5% only accounts on average 11.6% of spending for most families.

    Does not compute
    Petrol, eating out, clothing etc have either grown very slowly or actually fallen. The figure quoted is also relative to 12 months ago - it's not an annualised month-on-month, which would be much bigger (15%).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,212

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Surprised the inflation figure wasn't higher given the hammering I have had from every single supplier to the house this spring e.g. water up 17% FFS!!!
    Average is 26%. So you've done ok.
    Southern Water: 46.7% increase.
    (Bastards)
    You Southerners get fleeced, up in Yorkshire we only had a 29% increase.
    And of course Yorkshire water is much superior to poncy Southern water.

    Though seriously, I'm surprised Southern got away with a 46.7% increase this year with relatively little kerfuffle.
    I am an unabashed free marketeer but the water companies turn me into a Marxist.
    Free markets have fuck all to do with monopoly utilities.
    Whether owned by the state or private business, it's still a monopoly. And the customers have to use it, however crap it might be.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,797
    edited May 21

    .

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    What puzzles me about this reset saga is why Labour is still in thrall to the EU since a) it is an increasingly reactionary project and b) it is in serious economic trouble.


    Why does Labour want our laws to be set by the parties of Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, Geert Wilders or by Alternative for Germany, rather than by our own parliament?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/20/starmers-reset-inflicts-real-harm-on-the-british-economy

    It's the necessary damage limitation to Brexit. If you don't fix your mistake, you need to learn to live with it. Apart from May, belatedly, only Starmer has realised in the nine(!) years since the referendum what needs to be done. Unlike May, Starmer has a majority to put it into practice.
    The “deal” is laughably bad. He didn’t even get e-gates
    Is there a list of actual concrete things the eu got and concrete things the uk got anywhere...ie excluding all the we will explore items on each side?
    It’s all incredibly vague, but the outlines are bad for Britain

    The one definite decision is on fish: Starmer, who wanted to offer a deal for one year, and denied he would give away four years, got bullied at the last moment and gave away 12 years

    What’s more, the EU has got text in the agreement such that: if a future UK government with more bollocks (like, say, Reform) tries to amend this terrible fishing deal, the EU is allowed to hit us with trade sanctions. Yes
    But it's *the existing Boris deal* on fishing rights.

    What did you imagine would happen after that expired? We negotiate a deal where we deny their access to our waters and maintain our access to their waters?

    What's now been added on top is that having landed fish we now have the ability to trade it freely to the market we need to sell it to.

    Of course the Tories think it's a bad deal. They are fucking morons.
    You’re clueless. We had tremendous leverage. The French were terrified we were going to play hardball and take back all our fish. French governments are all fearful of the fishing and farming lobby

    Instead we handed over TWELVE years of UK fish and we got…. Literally nothing. Everything else is an agreement to continue negotiating - but we are certainly going to be paying money and taking EU law again

    That’s it. That’s the Starmer reset

    And he didn’t even get e-gates. Which aptly summarises his total incompetence. Labour thought they had a great retail offer - trivial but nice - no more passport queues - and they didn’t even get that, in the end
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,886

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    High inflation on top of everything else is Worst Case Scenario for Labour

    Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?

    Surprised the inflation figure wasn't higher given the hammering I have had from every single supplier to the house this spring e.g. water up 17% FFS!!!
    Average is 26%. So you've done ok.
    Southern Water: 46.7% increase.
    (Bastards)
    You Southerners get fleeced, up in Yorkshire we only had a 29% increase.
    And of course Yorkshire water is much superior to poncy Southern water.

    Though seriously, I'm surprised Southern got away with a 46.7% increase this year with relatively little kerfuffle.
    Full of reet good Yorkshire sewage rather than that effete southern muck.
    Are you seriously suggesting that lentils, couscous, Waitrose and Gails products produce worse sewage than pie and chips?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,412

    Andy_JS said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    Let’s be blunt most people are NIMBYs .

    If you have a nice home in a nice green area altruism hits the buffers.

    The privileged need to realise that things must change, if they want them to stay the same.
    What needs to change is for immigration to become either negative, nil, or less than 10K a year, as the majority of people want according to the latest polling.
    That's impossible without economic depressiom, which is why first Johnson, and then Farage won't be able to deliver it.

    What that would really need is for a rightwing politician to.really commit to something very out of character - cast-iron commitments to lift the education and training budget over a number of years, such that the above can be attempted again after a clearly defined number of years.
    The only way out:
    1. Migration is unsustainably and absurdly high. Smash the gangs. Rejoin the international accords. Rapidly process and return. Find an off-shore way to process the questionable cases.
    2. Migration is needed because we don't have enough doctors care staff factory workers brickies plumbers sparkies etc. If you want to set the level to zero then here's the cost to you tomorrow
    3. We're going to invest heavily now to train up the next generation of Brits to fill these critical jobs. This will take 5 years and we're going to need migrants until then. To help fix the crisis in our universities and remove a large flow of migrants we're going to fund universities to refocus on academic and vocational courses we need

    Knuckleheads will complain but with an actual plan to move things forward they will be an ever-shrinking minority.
This discussion has been closed.