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Winning here! Could the Lib Dems win more seats than the Tories? – politicalbetting.com
Winning here! Could the Lib Dems win more seats than the Tories? – politicalbetting.com
Ladbrokes have put up a market on whether they will win more seats than the Tories at the next election, I have previously noted the gap between the Tories and Lib Dems has never been closer as we can see in the chart above even before the Reform surge.
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Spurs have beaten Manchester United three times this season.
Or are we expecting Spurs to be Spursy again?
Last time Spurs met an English side in a European final.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VzNx27VAXw
On the basis that Ratcliffe owns Man Utd though - you have to want Tottenham to win but it’s a tough decision.
The new conservatives.
There's a reason why England has won an extra place in next season's Champions League.
I have no idea which team turns up tonight but that is where the result lies
Re Labour, I posted this on the last thread
https://news.sky.com/story/revealed-why-keir-starmers-strategy-to-tackle-reform-uk-could-end-up-backfiring-13371866
She really is useless.
Therefore the bet is essentially one on a (further) Tory collapse, like we saw in the locals. And gambling also that Reform neither collapses into scandal or divison, and that there isn't any deal between Reform and Tory.
Putting all those together, I'm not yet convinced it's a very safe bet so far ahead of the election.
The biggest threat to Labour in the Red Wall is the collapse of the Tory vote to Reform not Labour to Reform switchers .
Starmers useless advisor needs to go !
- household bill inflation a major contributor: bad news, though some of it (energy) should go into reverse soon
- The rest of services inflation seems to be driven by wage rises: some down to NI (bad), but the rest down to net wage growth (good)
- Remaining goods inflation is down, thanks to falling oil prices and stronger pound (good)
The fundamentals are not bad at the moment. Services inflation combined with goods deflation generally means good news for UK economic growth.
Rachel's really fucked it
Also the fact that we only had one team in the Semis of the Chanpions League (granted Liverpool were very unfortunate with the draw for the knock-outs and could have got Barca’s route) suggests we aren’t the best league.
To counter the above, we have the most gruelling and fierce league so when our clubs are at the Arsenal end of the season in Europe they have been battering away all season whilst a lot of other top clubs in Europe have plenty of league games they can ease up and rest players - English clubs do t have that luxury.
This can be demonstrated by how when Spurs and Man U were able to ease off in the league as they were going nowhere but there were three guaranteed worse teams, they eased off in the league and focussed on the UEFA cup. It’s v v unusual for English teams with such resources to be in this position.
https://kellnerp.substack.com/p/starmers-biggest-mistake-is-taking
My theory is that inflation is by far the most important economic indicator for politics, even if real wages are increasing. We've got used to it being below 3% since the Sunak Spike. They need to convert some of the positive vibes on renewable energy into something tangible in the next 12 months - some sort of reform, perhaps a tax cut on electricity (and increase on gas). Something.
What even is a generic Conservative seat these days?
In terms of the header, there must be a decent wedge of seats that only stayed blue because LibLab voters didn't realise that they could turf out their Conservative MP by tactical voting. A lot of them will be drowning in Two Horse Race clipart come the next election, and that tends to work.
(Answers own question: of course there won’t be, you stupid twat)
So, yes.
Occasionally, PBs demographics skew the debate. That's particularly the case on something like ISAs.
But, Kemi wants to play full Kampfkrieg instead.
If any party gets more seats than Labour, it's likely to have the most seats period.
Keep it up. (The tipping, that is.)
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4561153/#Comment_4561153
It is developing much as I expected it to. I am slightly surprised it is going on for this long, but of course the longer it continues the longer Netanyahu stays out of prison.
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Like Reform you’ll get more now you are rising in the polls and will you survive the scrutiny ?
You always go,on that Reform have no answers to problems in areas like where I live. Red wall, left behind, etc etc.
What exactly do the Lib Dem’s offer us ? I cannot see anything. Their offer seems totally skewed towards the Home Counties and the middle,class.
We’re invisible to them. Yet our council was run by a Lib Dem until recently.
And this is also a key quote:
Since Starmer became Prime Minister and Racher Reeves went to the Treasury, they have restricted the winter fuel allowance, cut overseas aid, diluted their climate change policies, reduced disability benefits, prepared public spending cuts, moved right on immigration, and offered Donald Trump a state visit. Dislike of these policies extends well beyond the Corbynite left. (We shall discover in due course how pro-European voters judge the government’s deals with the EU.)
There's also an element of using rationality to justify the thing I want to do anyway (Hello Morgan! I'm sure you're reading this too.) For ages, some on the Conservative right have looked wistfully at Canada, where a populist party called Reform swallowed the wetter Conservatives whole.
The catch is that it's not a brilliant tool for winning general elections. If we start the clock in 1993 (Kim Campbell: 2 seats), the Canadian right has been in opposition for 22 years out of 31.
I only keep quiet because you get abuse if you don't echo along. But I'm not especially interested.
Lib Dems are present all across the land, and have some of the most even demographics by age and geography of all parties. It's why we are the second party now on Leics County Council, with a minority Reform control. It's already Reform vs LibDems in some parts of the country.
That's on the back of the non-Labour vote that always existed in such seats simply switching behind them, former non-voters coming out to support them, as in the EU referendum, and *enough* ex-Labour voters switching (the BSkyB article which tracks 2005 voters, who now vote Reform, shows 20% voted Labour, twenty years ago.)
Labour could make a strategic choice, to just write off such areas, in order to keep the newer areas, and Lib Dem and Green voters on board, but that has risks of its own.
Labour's gamble is that left wing voters will still support them tactically in 2029, and if it's a choice between Labour and Reform, most probably will do, reluctantly.
Good morning, everyone.
It touches so many culture war issues that it soaks up far too much attention, while Sudan, or the Eastern Congo get ignored.
Remember Blair telling Major that he was "in office but not in power"? That's Labour today. Occupying the ministries whilst doing fuck all of any real consequence.
I know Taz isn’t likely to switch vote to the LDs anytime soon, but I wouldn’t want any floating voters to think the party platform is nimbyism plus Gail’s bakeries on every high street as seems to be the populist right wing stereotype.
I wonder if that includes repealing this law:
The Pensions Increase (Pension Scheme for Keir Starmer QC) Regulations 2013
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/2588/contents/made
I may be doing motivated reasoning here, but I think that a centre-right party can attract reluctant right wing voters more effectively than a right-wing party can attract reluctant centre-right voters. Combination of different toxicity and availability of alternatives.
Another data point is 2019: big Conservative win because Reform stood down in Conservative seats.
Strangely, that development is never needed round the neighbourhood of LibDems.
It's a regular feature that after LibDems have had local power for a while, the voters routinely turf them out, unimpressed.
The issue is that we, in the west, have generally supported Israel, for many complex reasons, including historical ones. We have not directly supported Hamas. Now the Israeli government are being openly genocidal, the question is how long we can continue to support them.
I don't think it is a question of us having to support them or they will get crushed by Hamas. But the Israeli government do need to understand that we have zero support for the way they are acting. In fact, that we condemn it.
How much I don't know, (could it be up to 30% of all voters?) but this gives them potential on the upside and I think this is why they are slowly firming upwards in the polls.
Bt the way, loads more ordinary people (including babies and children) are being crushed and killed in Sudan than Israel/Gaza and no-one in the west seems to care much.
For a long time, Liberal campaigning was essentially opportunistic- a by-election or a handful of determined activists burning the sandal leather. Community campaigning, Focus teams and all that. That let them build in a spotty way up to 2010, when the lack of coherence bit them... everywhere really.
This iteration of the yellow peril looks a lot more coherent. That's more powerful in the long term.
The bottom line is that Israel in the form of Bibi and his horrible coalition are desperate to be thought of as a bulwark of western democracy while blowing up their neighbours, killing their kids and stealing their land, aka having their cake and gluttonously gobbling it down.
Has any other UEFA nation ever had 6 Champions League entrants in a season?
Which is why Farage agreed to stand down his candidates.
Why does Labour want our laws to be set by the parties of Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, Geert Wilders or by Alternative for Germany, rather than by our own parliament?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/20/starmers-reset-inflicts-real-harm-on-the-british-economy
Could see them follow the Tories under 20%?
- turnover in council control, by party (which is the stickiest, which the most volatile)
- Resident satisfaction in councils, by party control (LGA stats don’t seem to contain this)
If you have this data that could be great to see. It sounds like you do.
It’s the opposite to what’s generally happened since 2020.
This is good news.