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Just how low can Badenoch’s Tories go? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,620
edited June 1 in General
Just how low can Badenoch’s Tories go? – politicalbetting.com

Earlier on this month I said the Tories are a rounding error from being fourth in the polls and it has happened which is great news for my 50/1 bet on the Lib Dems winning the most seats at the next election.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,239
    edited May 20
    First, like Kemi in the "First leader to go" betting.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,460
    edited May 20
    Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards if Cons go lower.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,113
    edited May 20
    Until it is obvious at a glance what is the USP of the Tories, they can go very low.

    Second? Unlike Tories but very like Arsenal?

    No Fourth. Like the Tories.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    Fifth, but first with the news...

  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,061
    edited May 20
    Sixth, like the Blues? (Or Sixteenth, like the Reds in football).

    Anyway, the Sixth Sick Sheik's Sixth Sick Sheep - just for kicks.

    (Restraining myself from adding the new Conservative logo.)
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,695
    Mexicanpete said:

    Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.

    I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.

    In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,566
    SandyRentool said:

    First, like Kemi in the "First leader to go" betting.

    Surely Carla Denyer will be first in that contest. She’s already announced she’s stepping down.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,546
    Have some sympathy for Badenoch? Nah...

    image

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,239
    Remember, this poll is from before the Tories promising to make trade with th EU more difficult and stop people taking their dogs to France.

    They're sure to get a boost from that.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,061
    edited May 20
    I had a flutter on that 50:1.

    Now down to 42:1, and I'm being offered a cash out of +£1.37.

    Like the Lib Dems, there's some way to go still.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,546
    SandyRentool said:

    Remember, this poll is from before the Tories promising to make trade with th EU more difficult and stop people taking their dogs to France.

    They're sure to get a boost from that.

    Both Kemi and Keir are planning another masterful relaunch imminently.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,239
    bondegezou said:

    SandyRentool said:

    First, like Kemi in the "First leader to go" betting.

    Surely Carla Denyer will be first in that contest. She’s already announced she’s stepping down.
    You have to go and spoil it with facts!
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,816
    Seems to me we just have to hope and pray that our democracy's checks and balances hold up better than those of the USA are appearing to do.

    Good morning, everybody.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,815
    Potentially, extinct.

    Good morning, everyone.

    FPT (1): F1: Verstappen now shorter than Norris in the title betting on Ladbrokes. Piastri's evens, Verstappen 3.25, Norris 3.75.

    Similar shift on Betfair. Piastri 2.02, Verstappen 3.7, Norris 4.

    As I mentioned yesterday, I slightly modified my title position by putting a little on Verstappen (having previously backed and then [prematurely, alas] hedged Piastri each way). If you backed Piastri and are all green then I'd say 3.7 on Verstappen is still worth backing at the moment.

    My guess is McLaren will 1-2 Monaco, but I was wary of waiting in case that doesn't happen. Remember there are two stops this year.



    FPT (2): F1: Undercutters Ep21, looking back at Imola and ahead to Monaco, is up now:

    Podbean: https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-imola-gp-prix-review-and-monaco-gp-predictions/

    Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f1-2025-imola-gp-prix-review-and-monaco-gp-predictions/id1786574257?i=1000709098687

    Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5NEUjDqc4UGgvB0of2tL07

    Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/bcfe213b-55fb-408a-a823-dc6693ee9f78/episodes/edaf9017-dc7d-4ad1-97e5-7ab0d039b620/undercutters---f1-podcast-f1-2025-imola-gp-prix-review-and-monaco-gp-predictions

    Transcript: https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/05/f1-2025-imola-gp-prix-review-and-monaco.html

    While it was a very good race, with Verstappen clearly faster than the McLarens, Ferrari recovering well, and Alonso continuing his atrocious luck (three DNFs and three 11th places from eight starts), I think my favourite part of making the podcast might be sarcastically mocking MBS in the news section.

    Oh, and there are lovely graphs in the transcript.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,749
    Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,470
    This poll gives a Reform majority of about 40.

    Starmer now has more chance of staying PM and the Tories would win more seats with PR
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,315
    AnneJGP said:

    Seems to me we just have to hope and pray that our democracy's checks and balances hold up better than those of the USA are appearing to do.

    Good morning, everybody.

    Look up primary legislation in the U.K.

    What checks and balances?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,470
    edited May 20
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.

    I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.

    In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
    Even rump SDP after the LDs were formed polled well below the 16% today's Yougov has the Tories on
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,408
    Mexicanpete said:

    Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards if Cons go lower.

    At this point it'd be less a merger, more a surrender.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,504
    nico67 said:

    Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .

    She's lucky nobody saw it
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,749
    Ironically Labour need the Tories to survive and so seeing them sink to fourth place might bring a few laughs initially but longer term it’s not what they want to see .
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,371
    Mexicanpete said:

    Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards if Cons go lower.

    At this point, there's nothing at all in that for Nigel.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,504
    Predictable, and predicted

    https://x.com/adampayne26/status/1924584541416554781
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,816
    Malmesbury said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Seems to me we just have to hope and pray that our democracy's checks and balances hold up better than those of the USA are appearing to do.

    Good morning, everybody.

    Look up primary legislation in the U.K.

    What checks and balances?
    It may well boil down to that pig-headed, obstructionist blob we've heard about.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,470
    Ratters said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards if Cons go lower.

    At this point it'd be less a merger, more a surrender.
    And while two thirds of current Tories would back a party merged with Reform one third would go LD.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,224
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.

    I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.

    In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
    Nearly. No one cares about anything today apart from broad brush thrusts on various topics, the main one today being immigration, where Reform is channeling much popular opinion to a greater or lesser degree. Certainly, no one cares about opinion polls four years out and how that translates to votes at the next GE is not at all clear.

    Kemi seems fine to me but, as one of the most politically involved people in the country (ie I come onto PB now and again), I have absolutely no idea what she's saying, or what anyone else is saying about politics apart from those participating in the immigration debate, which includes Jonathan Pie who tweeted that being concerned about immigration doesn't make you a racist.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,724
    Stuartinromford said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards if Cons go lower.

    At this point, there's nothing at all in that for Nigel.
    He already reeks of beer and fags. He doesn't need the stench of failure on top of all that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,546
    As a matter of interest, who had the lowest Con share in the predictions contest?

    I vaguely remember guessing 16 for the Tories.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,469
    edited May 20
    nico67 said:

    Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .

    Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.

    Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,470
    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .

    Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.

    Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
    Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,695
    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.

    I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.

    In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
    Even rump SDP after the LDs were formed polled well below the 16% today's Yougov has the Tories on
    Keep banging that drum. Ignore the trend. Ignore the continuing slide into oblivion. Just assume this poll will be the one at the GE in 4 years time and therefore actually Kemi will be in the driving seat actually.

    Mewanwhile, in reality, your choice is stay and try to become on of the 5 Tory MPs who survive the next election so that you can become leader and rebuild from the ashes, or decide when you join Reform and leave the rump behind.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,546
    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .

    Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.

    Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
    Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
    Haha!

    Is there a seat anywhere that Mr solid muscle could win?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,470
    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.

    I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.

    In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
    Even rump SDP after the LDs were formed polled well below the 16% today's Yougov has the Tories on
    Keep banging that drum. Ignore the trend. Ignore the continuing slide into oblivion. Just assume this poll will be the one at the GE in 4 years time and therefore actually Kemi will be in the driving seat actually.

    Mewanwhile, in reality, your choice is stay and try to become on of the 5 Tory MPs who survive the next election so that you can become leader and rebuild from the ashes, or decide when you join Reform and leave the rump behind.
    Of course PR would still give 100 Tory MPs. I would join neither Reform nor the LDs, the former too right for me, the latter too liberal left
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,460
    nico67 said:

    Ironically Labour need the Tories to survive and so seeing them sink to fourth place might bring a few laughs initially but longer term it’s not what they want to see .

    I don't see a replacement Conservative leader being the answer either. No one is listening now. Labour being in Government might still have that card to play for their survival.

    As we are all laughing at Kemi and Starmer, the disruptor in chief is facing an open goal, all whilst Johnson is fantasising about gimps.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,695
    TOPPING said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.

    I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.

    In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
    Nearly. No one cares about anything today apart from broad brush thrusts on various topics, the main one today being immigration, where Reform is channeling much popular opinion to a greater or lesser degree. Certainly, no one cares about opinion polls four years out and how that translates to votes at the next GE is not at all clear.

    Kemi seems fine to me but, as one of the most politically involved people in the country (ie I come onto PB now and again), I have absolutely no idea what she's saying, or what anyone else is saying about politics apart from those participating in the immigration debate, which includes Jonathan Pie who tweeted that being concerned about immigration doesn't make you a racist.
    A very good point which echoes what I just posted to HY - the trend is what matters, not the snapshot poll taken along the journey.

    The Tories need to work out who they are, what they stand for and then find a way to be clear and distinctive. In our politics everything is possible - they could win the next election, even now. But for the very unlikely to happen there have to be events to change the narrative and with it the trend. Which the party shows no sign of understanding.

    They opted to leave Kemi in place for another year. By the time they do move against her in 2026 the damage will be total.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,408
    nico67 said:

    Ironically Labour need the Tories to survive and so seeing them sink to fourth place might bring a few laughs initially but longer term it’s not what they want to see .

    Do they?

    I was listening to a traditionally right-of-centre economist who talked about how Reform's fiscal plans made Truss look like a figure of financial responsibility. That the markets may take fright at the prospect of a Reform win.

    Now maybe they will be more sensible if on the verge of power. But Labour can reasonably frame the next election against Reform as the opposition not being trustworthy on the economy. That is harder against the Tories as they are (mostly) perceived to be more sensible on that front.

    Likewise, on cultural issues Reform are easy to motivate Lib Dem and Green voters to tactically vote against. Their appeal is very marmite at present.

    I don't think Labour will mourn the demise of a party that has been extremely successful at elections historically.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,695
    Scott_xP said:

    Predictable, and predicted

    https://x.com/adampayne26/status/1924584541416554781

    Osborne was correct of course, because he's a decent politician and an excellent tactician.

    Simple truth: the handful of people who care about the Brexit Betrayal as screeched by Kemi in her cupboard yesterday will Vote Reform anyway...
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,157
    Foxy said:

    As a matter of interest, who had the lowest Con share in the predictions contest?

    I vaguely remember guessing 16 for the Tories.

    I am already "bust" on the highest LD %age.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,695
    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.

    I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.

    In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
    Even rump SDP after the LDs were formed polled well below the 16% today's Yougov has the Tories on
    Keep banging that drum. Ignore the trend. Ignore the continuing slide into oblivion. Just assume this poll will be the one at the GE in 4 years time and therefore actually Kemi will be in the driving seat actually.

    Mewanwhile, in reality, your choice is stay and try to become on of the 5 Tory MPs who survive the next election so that you can become leader and rebuild from the ashes, or decide when you join Reform and leave the rump behind.
    Of course PR would still give 100 Tory MPs. I would join neither Reform nor the LDs, the former too right for me, the latter too liberal left
    But *we don't have PR and your party is ideologically opposed to PR*
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,460
    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .

    Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.

    Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
    Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
    Don't you realise the man who only yesterday was writing a homo erotic fantasy about Starmer is so irrelevant he does not save your party? In fact I would suggest he was the architect of your collapse.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,470
    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.

    I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.

    In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
    Even rump SDP after the LDs were formed polled well below the 16% today's Yougov has the Tories on
    Keep banging that drum. Ignore the trend. Ignore the continuing slide into oblivion. Just assume this poll will be the one at the GE in 4 years time and therefore actually Kemi will be in the driving seat actually.

    Mewanwhile, in reality, your choice is stay and try to become on of the 5 Tory MPs who survive the next election so that you can become leader and rebuild from the ashes, or decide when you join Reform and leave the rump behind.
    Of course PR would still give 100 Tory MPs. I would join neither Reform nor the LDs, the former too right for me, the latter too liberal left
    But *we don't have PR and your party is ideologically opposed to PR*
    Was, most Tory MPs would likely back PR to keep their seats if polls like this continued and PR also is now Starmer’s best chance of staying PM
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,470
    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .

    Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.

    Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
    Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
    Don't you realise the man who only yesterday was writing a homo erotic fantasy about Starmer is so irrelevant he does not save your party? In fact I would suggest he was the architect of your collapse.
    Boris takes the Cons to 26% with MiC with Reform on 23% and Labour 22%. He wins back centrist swing voters Kemi can’t
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,251
    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.

    I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.

    In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
    Even rump SDP after the LDs were formed polled well below the 16% today's Yougov has the Tories on
    Keep banging that drum. Ignore the trend. Ignore the continuing slide into oblivion. Just assume this poll will be the one at the GE in 4 years time and therefore actually Kemi will be in the driving seat actually.

    Mewanwhile, in reality, your choice is stay and try to become on of the 5 Tory MPs who survive the next election so that you can become leader and rebuild from the ashes, or decide when you join Reform and leave the rump behind.
    Of course PR would still give 100 Tory MPs. I would join neither Reform nor the LDs, the former too right for me, the latter too liberal left
    But *we don't have PR and your party is ideologically opposed to PR*
    Was, most Tory MPs would likely back PR to keep their seats if polls like this continued and PR also is now Starmer’s best chance of staying PM
    Forget it.

    There's no way PR could be introduced without a manifesto commitment to it or at least a referendum on it. It might possibly emerge out of a coalition negotiation if Liberals are involved but again that wont happen before 2028.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,113
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Predictable, and predicted

    https://x.com/adampayne26/status/1924584541416554781

    Osborne was correct of course, because he's a decent politician and an excellent tactician.

    Simple truth: the handful of people who care about the Brexit Betrayal as screeched by Kemi in her cupboard yesterday will Vote Reform anyway...
    Osborne failed at the one essential: he and Cameron should have been absolutely ready and prepared for both possible Referendum outcomes. Brexit needed two great very detailed plans, the one for negotiating with the EU, and the one for domestic politics, selling a decent deal to the majority of the public. In the event the government was literally left to make it up as they went along. This failure set the stage for a disaster - one which has played out to be close to destruction of the party and not all that good tfor the country.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,224
    RochdalePioneers said:

    TOPPING said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.

    I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.

    In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
    Nearly. No one cares about anything today apart from broad brush thrusts on various topics, the main one today being immigration, where Reform is channeling much popular opinion to a greater or lesser degree. Certainly, no one cares about opinion polls four years out and how that translates to votes at the next GE is not at all clear.

    Kemi seems fine to me but, as one of the most politically involved people in the country (ie I come onto PB now and again), I have absolutely no idea what she's saying, or what anyone else is saying about politics apart from those participating in the immigration debate, which includes Jonathan Pie who tweeted that being concerned about immigration doesn't make you a racist.
    A very good point which echoes what I just posted to HY - the trend is what matters, not the snapshot poll taken along the journey.

    The Tories need to work out who they are, what they stand for and then find a way to be clear and distinctive. In our politics everything is possible - they could win the next election, even now. But for the very unlikely to happen there have to be events to change the narrative and with it the trend. Which the party shows no sign of understanding.

    They opted to leave Kemi in place for another year. By the time they do move against her in 2026 the damage will be total.
    Maybe. They need to win me back. Actually, not me. I'm not going to vote for Lab (they don't like me), the LDs (they don't like me) or Reform (I don't like them).

    They need to win back people a bit more to the "right" than me. So I understand why they might want to go for a cuddly Reform approach. Problem is, any reference to Reform is bound to fail (an extreme party doesn't all of a sudden say yes good point we'll pack it in, it continues to be extreme), and also we have had the most anti-immigration "strangers" speech from an incumbent Lab government so there's nowhere to go on that front.

    So they are left directionless with little political space to operate in atm.

    I expect that will change in time and I don't see why Kemi shouldn't be at the head of the party when it does change.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,098
    Painting over bright murals that might cheer up refugee kids was a bar that it going to be hard to beat.

    Oh, you mean polling?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,470
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .

    Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.

    Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
    Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
    Haha!

    Is there a seat anywhere that Mr solid muscle could win?
    If he gets the Tories to 26% nationally any seat the Tories currently hold with an increased majority
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,350
    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .

    Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.

    Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
    Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
    Good morning

    How many times, Johnson is not the answer and which poll shows Johnson taking the lead in the opinion polls

    As I have said previously, next May Senedd and Holyrood elections may well be Kemi's defining moment where on present trends she will have the opportunity to resign or be replaced

    On switching on Sky News this morning, they were far from impressed with yesterday's summit announcement suggesting Starmer had built it up to be a defining moment and the EU, as they do, smelt weakness and at the last minute demanded a 12 year fishing deal or collapsed talks

    We all know what happened next, but even worse it seems this is all TBC in futher talks with the Guardian suggesting the food agreement will take another 12 months, no agreement within the EU on UK participation on defence procurement, and apparently a 200 million charge for involvement in an energy supply deal

    The question is why did Starmer allow himself to be ambushed and then make announcements on discussions that had not been agreed ?

    Initially I welcomed the announcement, apart from the fish deal, but that was because, maybe naively, I expected the agreements would quickly come into force and it appears now even use of the e gates is not certain

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .

    Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.

    Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
    Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
    De Nile is supposed to be a river in Africa!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,470
    nico67 said:

    Ironically Labour need the Tories to survive and so seeing them sink to fourth place might bring a few laughs initially but longer term it’s not what they want to see .

    Yes with FPTP Labour wants a split right still
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,113
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    Foxy said:

    As a matter of interest, who had the lowest Con share in the predictions contest?

    I vaguely remember guessing 16 for the Tories.

    I am already "bust" on the highest LD %age.
    I said 35% for Reform's highest poll. At the time it was just an extreme punt. Now it looks close. At the other end, I said 19% for Tories low. Way out!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,350
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .

    Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.

    Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
    Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
    De Nile is supposed to be a river in Africa!
    Very good
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,460
    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.

    I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.

    In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
    Even rump SDP after the LDs were formed polled well below the 16% today's Yougov has the Tories on
    Keep banging that drum. Ignore the trend. Ignore the continuing slide into oblivion. Just assume this poll will be the one at the GE in 4 years time and therefore actually Kemi will be in the driving seat actually.

    Mewanwhile, in reality, your choice is stay and try to become on of the 5 Tory MPs who survive the next election so that you can become leader and rebuild from the ashes, or decide when you join Reform and leave the rump behind.
    Of course PR would still give 100 Tory MPs. I would join neither Reform nor the LDs, the former too right for me, the latter too liberal left
    But *we don't have PR and your party is ideologically opposed to PR*
    If I was Bobby J. , Suella, Priti or any other right wing loon I would throw my hat in with Nigel independently of the Conservative Party, nestle down as a landslide Reform MP and wait patiently for the Grim Reaper to do do his work. Suella or Honest Bob as a Reform PM would be a comfortable fit I would have thought.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,350
    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .

    Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.

    Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
    Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
    Don't you realise the man who only yesterday was writing a homo erotic fantasy about Starmer is so irrelevant he does not save your party? In fact I would suggest he was the architect of your collapse.
    He certainly played his part but Truss was the gift that will not stop giving
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,504
    algarkirk said:

    Osborne failed at the one essential: he and Cameron should have been absolutely ready and prepared for both possible Referendum outcomes.

    Nope

    The failure of Brexit as a policy is NOT the fault of those who warned against it, campaigned against it or voted against it.

    BoZo and his chums own this
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,695
    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.

    I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.

    In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
    Even rump SDP after the LDs were formed polled well below the 16% today's Yougov has the Tories on
    Keep banging that drum. Ignore the trend. Ignore the continuing slide into oblivion. Just assume this poll will be the one at the GE in 4 years time and therefore actually Kemi will be in the driving seat actually.

    Mewanwhile, in reality, your choice is stay and try to become on of the 5 Tory MPs who survive the next election so that you can become leader and rebuild from the ashes, or decide when you join Reform and leave the rump behind.
    Of course PR would still give 100 Tory MPs. I would join neither Reform nor the LDs, the former too right for me, the latter too liberal left
    But *we don't have PR and your party is ideologically opposed to PR*
    Was, most Tory MPs would likely back PR to keep their seats if polls like this continued and PR also is now Starmer’s best chance of staying PM
    So "We're prepared to sell out our own grandmothers our own principles to save ourselves. Vote Conservative" is your big pitch to the voters?

    Does your party stand for anything? Anything at all?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,695
    algarkirk said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Predictable, and predicted

    https://x.com/adampayne26/status/1924584541416554781

    Osborne was correct of course, because he's a decent politician and an excellent tactician.

    Simple truth: the handful of people who care about the Brexit Betrayal as screeched by Kemi in her cupboard yesterday will Vote Reform anyway...
    Osborne failed at the one essential: he and Cameron should have been absolutely ready and prepared for both possible Referendum outcomes. Brexit needed two great very detailed plans, the one for negotiating with the EU, and the one for domestic politics, selling a decent deal to the majority of the public. In the event the government was literally left to make it up as they went along. This failure set the stage for a disaster - one which has played out to be close to destruction of the party and not all that good tfor the country.
    Osborne is on record of being directly and fiercely opposed to the referendum taking place - he thought they would lose.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,460
    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .

    Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.

    Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
    Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
    Don't you realise the man who only yesterday was writing a homo erotic fantasy about Starmer is so irrelevant he does not save your party? In fact I would suggest he was the architect of your collapse.
    Boris takes the Cons to 26% with MiC with Reform on 23% and Labour 22%. He wins back centrist swing voters Kemi can’t
    If Johnson became Tory leader all of Farage's Christmases come at once. Farage wouldn't stop banging on about the Boriswave. Reform and Farage are a one trick pony, and Johnson would be that trick.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,460
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .

    Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.

    Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
    Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
    Don't you realise the man who only yesterday was writing a homo erotic fantasy about Starmer is so irrelevant he does not save your party? In fact I would suggest he was the architect of your collapse.
    He certainly played his part but Truss was the gift that will not stop giving
    Johnson created Truss.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,695
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .

    Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.

    Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
    Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
    Good morning

    How many times, Johnson is not the answer and which poll shows Johnson taking the lead in the opinion polls

    As I have said previously, next May Senedd and Holyrood elections may well be Kemi's defining moment where on present trends she will have the opportunity to resign or be replaced

    On switching on Sky News this morning, they were far from impressed with yesterday's summit announcement suggesting Starmer had built it up to be a defining moment and the EU, as they do, smelt weakness and at the last minute demanded a 12 year fishing deal or collapsed talks

    We all know what happened next, but even worse it seems this is all TBC in futher talks with the Guardian suggesting the food agreement will take another 12 months, no agreement within the EU on UK participation on defence procurement, and apparently a 200 million charge for involvement in an energy supply deal

    The question is why did Starmer allow himself to be ambushed and then make announcements on discussions that had not been agreed ?

    Initially I welcomed the announcement, apart from the fish deal, but that was because, maybe naively, I expected the agreements would quickly come into force and it appears now even use of the e gates is not certain

    All of this was clear yesterday in the documents released. This was a Heads of Agreement announcement, not a final deal. But whilst the formal SPS deal could take the rest of the year, there's no reason in principle why the government couldn't offer a drop hands agreement now - both parties drop the requirements for paperwork on products where standards are identical on both sides of the frontier (which is most stuff).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Scott_xP said:

    algarkirk said:

    Osborne failed at the one essential: he and Cameron should have been absolutely ready and prepared for both possible Referendum outcomes.

    Nope

    The failure of Brexit as a policy is NOT the fault of those who warned against it, campaigned against it or voted against it.

    BoZo and his chums own this
    You campagined for the Tories in 2015 despite the referendum commitment. What did you expect to happen?
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 423
    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.

    I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.

    In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
    Even rump SDP after the LDs were formed polled well below the 16% today's Yougov has the Tories on
    Keep banging that drum. Ignore the trend. Ignore the continuing slide into oblivion. Just assume this poll will be the one at the GE in 4 years time and therefore actually Kemi will be in the driving seat actually.

    Mewanwhile, in reality, your choice is stay and try to become on of the 5 Tory MPs who survive the next election so that you can become leader and rebuild from the ashes, or decide when you join Reform and leave the rump behind.
    Of course PR would still give 100 Tory MPs. I would join neither Reform nor the LDs, the former too right for me, the latter too liberal left
    But *we don't have PR and your party is ideologically opposed to PR*
    Was, most Tory MPs would likely back PR to keep their seats if polls like this continued and PR also is now Starmer’s best chance of staying PM
    Forget it.

    There's no way PR could be introduced without a manifesto commitment to it or at least a referendum on it. It might possibly emerge out of a coalition negotiation if Liberals are involved but again that wont happen before 2028.
    Hmmmm..... I'm not so sure. Note that Boris Johnson unilaterally changed the electoral system for Mayors by a simple Order in Council - not even a Parliamentary debate. I hope all the PR merchants will remember that technical approach the next time local government is being "reformed".

    On the Parliamentary front, surely the point is that Parliament is sovereign, and can make its own rules for itself. So, if the current Parliament suddenly sees the light, and the cowardly custards on the Tory and Labour back benches decide that PR is a Jolly Good Thing, then it's entirely possible (albeit improbable) for the next general election to be run using the Single Transferrable Vote in Multi Member Constituencies, without the need for pledges in manifestos.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,645
    edited May 20
    RochdalePioneers said:

    algarkirk said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Predictable, and predicted

    https://x.com/adampayne26/status/1924584541416554781

    Osborne was correct of course, because he's a decent politician and an excellent tactician.

    Simple truth: the handful of people who care about the Brexit Betrayal as screeched by Kemi in her cupboard yesterday will Vote Reform anyway...
    Osborne failed at the one essential: he and Cameron should have been absolutely ready and prepared for both possible Referendum outcomes. Brexit needed two great very detailed plans, the one for negotiating with the EU, and the one for domestic politics, selling a decent deal to the majority of the public. In the event the government was literally left to make it up as they went along. This failure set the stage for a disaster - one which has played out to be close to destruction of the party and not all that good tfor the country.
    Osborne is on record of being directly and fiercely opposed to the referendum taking place - he thought they would lose.
    Dave can still get pelters though, right?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    edited May 20
    Mexicanpete said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .

    Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.

    Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
    Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
    Don't you realise the man who only yesterday was writing a homo erotic fantasy about Starmer is so irrelevant he does not save your party? In fact I would suggest he was the architect of your collapse.
    He certainly played his part but Truss was the gift that will not stop giving
    Johnson created Truss.
    +1

    Both by promoting her well beyond her level of competence, playing some of her tunes merely for his own very short-term political advantage, and either blocking the careers of or getting rid of all more sensible, heavyweight potential alternatives.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,315
    AnneJGP said:

    Malmesbury said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Seems to me we just have to hope and pray that our democracy's checks and balances hold up better than those of the USA are appearing to do.

    Good morning, everybody.

    Look up primary legislation in the U.K.

    What checks and balances?
    It may well boil down to that pig-headed, obstructionist blob we've heard about.
    {must finish header on the blob}

    No - primary legislation overrides everything.

    Put it another way - see how even the Labour Party apparatus is leaping to enforce the Supreme Court ruling on trans?

    That produced clarity in the interpretation of the law. No more judgements to make it ambiguous.

    If things are written clearly into legislation, specifically overriding previous laws, then there is next to nothing to stop them.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,816
    TOPPING said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    TOPPING said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.

    I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.

    In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
    Nearly. No one cares about anything today apart from broad brush thrusts on various topics, the main one today being immigration, where Reform is channeling much popular opinion to a greater or lesser degree. Certainly, no one cares about opinion polls four years out and how that translates to votes at the next GE is not at all clear.

    Kemi seems fine to me but, as one of the most politically involved people in the country (ie I come onto PB now and again), I have absolutely no idea what she's saying, or what anyone else is saying about politics apart from those participating in the immigration debate, which includes Jonathan Pie who tweeted that being concerned about immigration doesn't make you a racist.
    A very good point which echoes what I just posted to HY - the trend is what matters, not the snapshot poll taken along the journey.

    The Tories need to work out who they are, what they stand for and then find a way to be clear and distinctive. In our politics everything is possible - they could win the next election, even now. But for the very unlikely to happen there have to be events to change the narrative and with it the trend. Which the party shows no sign of understanding.

    They opted to leave Kemi in place for another year. By the time they do move against her in 2026 the damage will be total.
    Maybe. They need to win me back. Actually, not me. I'm not going to vote for Lab (they don't like me), the LDs (they don't like me) or Reform (I don't like them).

    They need to win back people a bit more to the "right" than me. So I understand why they might want to go for a cuddly Reform approach. Problem is, any reference to Reform is bound to fail (an extreme party doesn't all of a sudden say yes good point we'll pack it in, it continues to be extreme), and also we have had the most anti-immigration "strangers" speech from an incumbent Lab government so there's nowhere to go on that front.

    So they are left directionless with little political space to operate in atm.

    I expect that will change in time and I don't see why Kemi shouldn't be at the head of the party when it does change.
    I admire your optimism for the Conservative party.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.

    I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.

    In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
    Even rump SDP after the LDs were formed polled well below the 16% today's Yougov has the Tories on
    Keep banging that drum. Ignore the trend. Ignore the continuing slide into oblivion. Just assume this poll will be the one at the GE in 4 years time and therefore actually Kemi will be in the driving seat actually.

    Mewanwhile, in reality, your choice is stay and try to become on of the 5 Tory MPs who survive the next election so that you can become leader and rebuild from the ashes, or decide when you join Reform and leave the rump behind.
    Of course PR would still give 100 Tory MPs. I would join neither Reform nor the LDs, the former too right for me, the latter too liberal left
    But *we don't have PR and your party is ideologically opposed to PR*
    Was, most Tory MPs would likely back PR to keep their seats if polls like this continued and PR also is now Starmer’s best chance of staying PM
    Forget it.

    There's no way PR could be introduced without a manifesto commitment to it or at least a referendum on it. It might possibly emerge out of a coalition negotiation if Liberals are involved but again that wont happen before 2028.
    Because Labour ducked making the commitment - despite its party conference resolutions - because, as usual, they imagined they'd be in office for a hundred years...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,645
    IanB2 said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .

    Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.

    Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
    Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
    Don't you realise the man who only yesterday was writing a homo erotic fantasy about Starmer is so irrelevant he does not save your party? In fact I would suggest he was the architect of your collapse.
    He certainly played his part but Truss was the gift that will not stop giving
    Johnson created Truss.
    +1

    Both by promoting her well beyond her level of competence, playing some of her tunes merely for his own very short-term political advantage, and either blocking the careers of or getting rid of all more sensible, heavyweight potential alternatives.
    Could the same not be said largely about those who promoted Johnson?
    *Checks list of candidates*
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,460
    RochdalePioneers said:

    algarkirk said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Predictable, and predicted

    https://x.com/adampayne26/status/1924584541416554781

    Osborne was correct of course, because he's a decent politician and an excellent tactician.

    Simple truth: the handful of people who care about the Brexit Betrayal as screeched by Kemi in her cupboard yesterday will Vote Reform anyway...
    Osborne failed at the one essential: he and Cameron should have been absolutely ready and prepared for both possible Referendum outcomes. Brexit needed two great very detailed plans, the one for negotiating with the EU, and the one for domestic politics, selling a decent deal to the majority of the public. In the event the government was literally left to make it up as they went along. This failure set the stage for a disaster - one which has played out to be close to destruction of the party and not all that good tfor the country.
    Osborne is on record of being directly and fiercely opposed to the referendum taking place - he thought they would lose.
    If Cameron had listened to Osborne we would have just elected Cameron for an unprecedented fourth term as PM on May 1st.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,350
    Scott_xP said:

    algarkirk said:

    Osborne failed at the one essential: he and Cameron should have been absolutely ready and prepared for both possible Referendum outcomes.

    Nope

    The failure of Brexit as a policy is NOT the fault of those who warned against it, campaigned against it or voted against it.

    BoZo and his chums own this
    You say that, but it was the failure of the whole political class not only to win the vote, but to fight each other over the result rather than agreeing a sensible Brexit with single market access
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    edited May 20
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .

    Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.

    Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
    Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
    Good morning

    How many times, Johnson is not the answer and which poll shows Johnson taking the lead in the opinion polls

    As I have said previously, next May Senedd and Holyrood elections may well be Kemi's defining moment where on present trends she will have the opportunity to resign or be replaced

    On switching on Sky News this morning, they were far from impressed with yesterday's summit announcement suggesting Starmer had built it up to be a defining moment and the EU, as they do, smelt weakness and at the last minute demanded a 12 year fishing deal or collapsed talks

    We all know what happened next, but even worse it seems this is all TBC in futher talks with the Guardian suggesting the food agreement will take another 12 months, no agreement within the EU on UK participation on defence procurement, and apparently a 200 million charge for involvement in an energy supply deal

    The question is why did Starmer allow himself to be ambushed and then make announcements on discussions that had not been agreed ?

    Initially I welcomed the announcement, apart from the fish deal, but that was because, maybe naively, I expected the agreements would quickly come into force and it appears now even use of the e gates is not certain

    All of this was clear yesterday in the documents released. This was a Heads of Agreement announcement, not a final deal. But whilst the formal SPS deal could take the rest of the year, there's no reason in principle why the government couldn't offer a drop hands agreement now - both parties drop the requirements for paperwork on products where standards are identical on both sides of the frontier (which is most stuff).
    It will be interesting to see how quickly things move. Between the EU and UK politicians and EU and UK officials, there is plenty of scope for this to take an age before the detailed agreement is secured, ratified, the necessary regulations produced and passed by both EU and UK, and the officials getting themselves ready for implementation.

    Yet yesterday's announcement has raised a lot of expectations - on pet travel, the forums are already full of people with soon upcoming holidays either thinking or hoping that the changes will come in pretty much right away.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,764
    Mexicanpete said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .

    Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.

    Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
    Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
    Don't you realise the man who only yesterday was writing a homo erotic fantasy about Starmer is so irrelevant he does not save your party? In fact I would suggest he was the architect of your collapse.
    He certainly played his part but Truss was the gift that will not stop giving
    Johnson created Truss.
    Like Frankenstein created the Bride of Frankenstein...

    (great movie btw)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,495
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Scott_xP said:

    algarkirk said:

    Osborne failed at the one essential: he and Cameron should have been absolutely ready and prepared for both possible Referendum outcomes.

    Nope

    The failure of Brexit as a policy is NOT the fault of those who warned against it, campaigned against it or voted against it.

    BoZo and his chums own this
    You say that, but it was the failure of the whole political class not only to win the vote, but to fight each other over the result rather than agreeing a sensible Brexit with single market access
    "He was deceived by a lie. We all were."
  • eekeek Posts: 30,879
    IanB2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.

    I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.

    In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
    Even rump SDP after the LDs were formed polled well below the 16% today's Yougov has the Tories on
    Keep banging that drum. Ignore the trend. Ignore the continuing slide into oblivion. Just assume this poll will be the one at the GE in 4 years time and therefore actually Kemi will be in the driving seat actually.

    Mewanwhile, in reality, your choice is stay and try to become on of the 5 Tory MPs who survive the next election so that you can become leader and rebuild from the ashes, or decide when you join Reform and leave the rump behind.
    Of course PR would still give 100 Tory MPs. I would join neither Reform nor the LDs, the former too right for me, the latter too liberal left
    But *we don't have PR and your party is ideologically opposed to PR*
    Was, most Tory MPs would likely back PR to keep their seats if polls like this continued and PR also is now Starmer’s best chance of staying PM
    Forget it.

    There's no way PR could be introduced without a manifesto commitment to it or at least a referendum on it. It might possibly emerge out of a coalition negotiation if Liberals are involved but again that wont happen before 2028.
    Because Labour ducked making the commitment - despite its party conference resolutions - because, as usual, they imagined they'd be in office for a hundred years...
    It's like most things - PR can be left to a subsequent election - until suddenly it becomes essential immediately.

    The thing is the last election result was such that I think you could argue that the last election showed that some form of PR is required. How many MPs were elected on less than 40% of votes case?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,816
    Scott_xP said:

    algarkirk said:

    Osborne failed at the one essential: he and Cameron should have been absolutely ready and prepared for both possible Referendum outcomes.

    Nope

    The failure of Brexit as a policy is NOT the fault of those who warned against it, campaigned against it or voted against it.

    BoZo and his chums own this
    Have you ever heard of contingency plans? The Prime Minister relied on his luck holding out.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Reform = Farage.

    Farage will not be around for ever and he shows absolutely no interest in sharing the limelight with anyone else.

    I would not write the Tories' obituary just yet
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    TOPPING said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    TOPPING said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.

    I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.

    In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
    Nearly. No one cares about anything today apart from broad brush thrusts on various topics, the main one today being immigration, where Reform is channeling much popular opinion to a greater or lesser degree. Certainly, no one cares about opinion polls four years out and how that translates to votes at the next GE is not at all clear.

    Kemi seems fine to me but, as one of the most politically involved people in the country (ie I come onto PB now and again), I have absolutely no idea what she's saying, or what anyone else is saying about politics apart from those participating in the immigration debate, which includes Jonathan Pie who tweeted that being concerned about immigration doesn't make you a racist.
    A very good point which echoes what I just posted to HY - the trend is what matters, not the snapshot poll taken along the journey.

    The Tories need to work out who they are, what they stand for and then find a way to be clear and distinctive. In our politics everything is possible - they could win the next election, even now. But for the very unlikely to happen there have to be events to change the narrative and with it the trend. Which the party shows no sign of understanding.

    They opted to leave Kemi in place for another year. By the time they do move against her in 2026 the damage will be total.
    Maybe. They need to win me back. Actually, not me. I'm not going to vote for Lab (they don't like me), the LDs (they don't like me) or Reform (I don't like them).

    They need to win back people a bit more to the "right" than me. So I understand why they might want to go for a cuddly Reform approach. Problem is, any reference to Reform is bound to fail (an extreme party doesn't all of a sudden say yes good point we'll pack it in, it continues to be extreme), and also we have had the most anti-immigration "strangers" speech from an incumbent Lab government so there's nowhere to go on that front.

    So they are left directionless with little political space to operate in atm.

    I expect that will change in time and I don't see why Kemi shouldn't be at the head of the party when it does change.
    Our Tory MP in the IOW has just put out a frothy press release slamming Starmer's deal as a win for the French and Dutch and a surrender from the UK - yet if he gets anyone extra to believe such nonsense, he's just driven an extra vote to the party currently most likely to take his seat next time around.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,771
    edited May 20
    Off thread: from the 'Information is Beautiful' facebook page: thought this might be useful here - how British people interpret adjectives:


    Note, regrettably, a tiny sliver of people rank 'appalling' quite highly and another ranks 'awesome' quite low. And the quite large group of people who thought 8/10 was 'perfect'.

    I don't think people are right about 'mediocre'. It's a word which tricks you by sounding like 'medium' - but I think it actually should rank lower than 'somewhat bad'.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,504
    algarkirk said:

    If the government was not prepared to accept both outcomes fully the government should have called a fresh election after the Brexit vote, as they had gone back on a key principle.

    With the benefit of hindsight I think this is true

    You can see why they didn't, but in the grand scheme of things this would probably have led to a better outcome than what actually happened
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    Cookie said:

    Off thread: from the 'Information is Beautiful' facebook page: thought this might be useful here - how British people interpret adjectives:


    Note, regrettably, a tiny sliver of people rank 'appalling' quite highly and another ranks 'awesome' quite low.

    I don't think people are right about 'mediocre'. It's a word which tricks you by sounding like 'medium' - but I think it actually should rank lower than 'somewhat bad'.

    Whereas Americans would have 'awesome' somewhere in the middle...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,695
    SouthamObserver said:

    Reform = Farage.

    Farage will not be around for ever and he shows absolutely no interest in sharing the limelight with anyone else.

    I would not write the Tories' obituary just yet

    As I posted earlier, events could turn it around so that they win the election. But for that to happen all of the planets have to align - possible but extremely unlikely.

    Politicians and parties get destroyed by Hubris. The Tories seem possessed by their righteousness even now, expressing no contrition and no sign that they are paying the slightest bit of attention to voters. Unless there is a major mea culpa event then they really are done as an electoral force.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,495
    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .

    Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.

    Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
    Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
    Boris isn't an MP.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,062
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Predictable, and predicted

    https://x.com/adampayne26/status/1924584541416554781

    Osborne was correct of course, because he's a decent politician and an excellent tactician.

    Simple truth: the handful of people who care about the Brexit Betrayal as screeched by Kemi in her cupboard yesterday will Vote Reform anyway...
    That, though, is a line which will work against Reform - with yet more justification.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,504
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Unless there is a major mea culpa event then they really are done as an electoral force.

    What should they apologise for?

    Badenoch?

    Truss?

    BoZo?

    Brexit?

    All of the above?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,695
    Regarding PR, parliament can do whatever it wants. There is no legal or constitutional barrier in parliament changing the franchise or the way that votes of that franchise are collated.

    So its a political question, not a legal or ethical one.

    Farage has spoken repeatedly in favour of PR, Labour have a significant proportion of their back benches in support, LDs support as do Plaid and the Greens. If the government wanted to bring it in, mathematically they could get it passed.

    Politically though? Tricky. I would be gobsmacked.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    SouthamObserver said:

    Reform = Farage.

    Farage will not be around for ever and he shows absolutely no interest in sharing the limelight with anyone else.

    I would not write the Tories' obituary just yet

    Reform = Farage is a similar equation to the SNP = Salmond. There are structural reasons for their success beyond the appeal of the leader.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,504
    @TaliFraser

    In Tory land, the party has launched a review of its constitution and structure…

    🔎The first phase involves LOTO + members looking at the Conservative Party’s ‘name, purpose, objects and values’

    🗳️Later phases include rules for leadership elections and candidate selections

    https://x.com/TaliFraser/status/1924740667281961210
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,948
    I'd guess the Conservative vote isn't particularly well distributed at these levels.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,062
    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.

    I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.

    In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
    Even rump SDP after the LDs were formed polled well below the 16% today's Yougov has the Tories on
    Keep banging that drum. Ignore the trend. Ignore the continuing slide into oblivion. Just assume this poll will be the one at the GE in 4 years time and therefore actually Kemi will be in the driving seat actually.

    Mewanwhile, in reality, your choice is stay and try to become on of the 5 Tory MPs who survive the next election so that you can become leader and rebuild from the ashes, or decide when you join Reform and leave the rump behind.
    Of course PR would still give 100 Tory MPs. I would join neither Reform nor the LDs, the former too right for me, the latter too liberal left
    But *we don't have PR and your party is ideologically opposed to PR*
    Was, most Tory MPs would likely back PR to keep their seats if polls like this continued and PR also is now Starmer’s best chance of staying PM
    Starmer will probably be like everyone else in power, and think that FPTP will always work to the benefit of his party.

    I welcome your conversion to the principle, but it's a little late in the day for the Tories to argue for PR. After arguing against it vociferously, for as long as I can recall, their case for it will seem entirely self-serving.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,948
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .

    Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.

    Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
    Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
    Boris isn't an MP.
    Neither was Mark Carney before he became Canadian PM !

    Nevertheless I think it's unlikely Boris will come back. Wishful thinking by @HYUFD that they'll find a leader who will hit the heights of perhaps 24% or so.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,948
    Cookie said:

    Off thread: from the 'Information is Beautiful' facebook page: thought this might be useful here - how British people interpret adjectives:


    Note, regrettably, a tiny sliver of people rank 'appalling' quite highly and another ranks 'awesome' quite low. And the quite large group of people who thought 8/10 was 'perfect'.

    I don't think people are right about 'mediocre'. It's a word which tricks you by sounding like 'medium' - but I think it actually should rank lower than 'somewhat bad'.

    4 out of 5 was a decent stab back when I was in school at a quiz or whatnot but now 4 out of 5 is regarded in the US (And has been exported round the rest of the world) to somehow mean utterly terrible.
    When did that happen ?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,566
    Pulpstar said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .

    Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.

    Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
    Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
    Boris isn't an MP.
    Neither was Mark Carney before he became Canadian PM !

    Nevertheless I think it's unlikely Boris will come back. Wishful thinking by @HYUFD that they'll find a leader who will hit the heights of perhaps 24% or so.
    Maybe they could get Mark Carney to be leader. He'd probably be a better choice.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,695
    Scott_xP said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Unless there is a major mea culpa event then they really are done as an electoral force.

    What should they apologise for?

    Badenoch?

    Truss?

    BoZo?

    Brexit?

    All of the above?
    As usual you are focused far too narrowly on your own totems.

    You are listing symptoms of the disease, not the disease itself. The Conservative and Unionist Party stopped being either conservative or unionist. It launched into economic radicalism without a clear vision of what that was or how to drive it, and scrapped the Union in the process.

    What the party needs to do is go Back to Basics. A dynamic, entrepreneurial economy where business and people invest so that we all get richer. Low taxes, low intervention, a strong safety net combined with a "pick yourself up off the floor" approach. Go out there telling people how we can reform Britain by finding our ways back to the feelgood days of the 80s.

    Along the way they will point out their failings of the recent past and successfully bat them into "done" category because they've clearly moved on. If all you do is say "we're sorry about Truss" you don't change the narrative.

    The problem is that the Tories can't do this because they have forgotten who they are and what they believe in. Badenoch sat in her cupboard yesterday spitting bile about Brexit betrayals because that's genuinely what she thinks - and genuinely thinks thats what the voters think.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,251
    Anne Applebaum‬
    ‪@anneapplebaum.bsky.social‬

    Update: Putin and Trump had a phone call that produced nothing

    https://bsky.app/profile/anneapplebaum.bsky.social/post/3lpl2as3ozs2i
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,824
    Foxy said:

    As a matter of interest, who had the lowest Con share in the predictions contest?

    I vaguely remember guessing 16 for the Tories.

    Oh, was it meant to be a percentage? My entry of 20ish obviously referred to number of MPs after the election….
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 423
    (Sorry, but I keep on reading here about "Badenoch in a cupboard". Is that some sort of in-joke on here, or have I missed something?)
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,113
    RochdalePioneers said:

    algarkirk said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Predictable, and predicted

    https://x.com/adampayne26/status/1924584541416554781

    Osborne was correct of course, because he's a decent politician and an excellent tactician.

    Simple truth: the handful of people who care about the Brexit Betrayal as screeched by Kemi in her cupboard yesterday will Vote Reform anyway...
    Osborne failed at the one essential: he and Cameron should have been absolutely ready and prepared for both possible Referendum outcomes. Brexit needed two great very detailed plans, the one for negotiating with the EU, and the one for domestic politics, selling a decent deal to the majority of the public. In the event the government was literally left to make it up as they went along. This failure set the stage for a disaster - one which has played out to be close to destruction of the party and not all that good tfor the country.
    Osborne is on record of being directly and fiercely opposed to the referendum taking place - he thought they would lose.
    Ministers who cannot support government policy resign. You cannot have it both ways. If you don't resign on the big issues you are supporting them. Think the late Robin Cook.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,824
    When is the Tory conference in September? Shall I get cabbage now and see whether it has a greater chance of making it than their current leader?
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