politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The evening thread – Marf on Democracy Day

With an average lead of 1, it's surprising there aren't more crossovers.

TheWatcher said:

LD 8, Greens 10. There's a crossover to get excited about!

PONCWAS

TheWatcher said:

LD 8, Greens 10. There's a crossover to get excited about!

I'm starting to think the Lib's aren't ever going to recover and might actually be heading for oblivion...

philiph said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov

Con 32, Lab 30, LD 8, UKIP 15, Greens 10

Lab 5 year low, Green all time high

Isn't the immutable rule to add 2 to blue and deduct 2 from red?

Yup

If YouGov has the Tories ahead tomorrow, I might consider them the Gold Standard.

Anyway, this backs up my prediction that it's Labour's separate battlegrounds with the Greens, UKIP and SNP that will decide the election.

The Tories are pretty much spectators to the entire process and have to rely on those 3 other parties to tear chunks out of Labour in order for the Tories to fall backwards into first place (notable that their 32% today is hardly that spectacular). That said, Labour seem perfectly willing to carry on pushing those voters away to those parties with their policy on spending cuts which is more right-wing than 60% of the public, so the Tories very likely are onto a winner.

Why do The Sun put a picture of Brian Walden next to the UKIP poll number?

This poll's obviously an outlier, but does confirm:-

1. The basic division between 45% voting Left (if one includes nationalists) and 47% voting right.

2. Con and Lab are basically tied.

hunchman said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov

Con 32, Lab 30, LD 8, UKIP 15, Greens 10

Lab 5 year low, Green all time high

LOL.

As I said a few nights ago, I still want to see hard evidence of actual Green votes in the ballot box before I take this move in the polls seriously. Anyway I'm sure Mr Cameron is laughing at all this extra publicity that the Greens have been getting over the past fortnight. I still think he's made a wrong move on his positioning over the debates - curious how the initial furore has died down.

Cameron's debate strategy re the Greens is a truly masterful strategy, I wouldn't be surprised to find out George Osborne was behind it.

If the broadcasters agree to adding the Greens to the debates, then Dave should also insist the SNP are in the debates

The debate thing is clearly the cleverest Cameron/Osborne/Crosby ruse to date. Not only is the Green publicity starting to suck Labour dry, it also means that Ed can't now risk the debate himself, with his left flank horribly exposed. So Dave can wash his hands of the Nigel threat into the bargain.

Ishmail_X ..... You owe me £15. Please email me at peterfromputney@gmail.com to arrange payment.

Everyone is now saying the broadcasters need to make new proposals. Assuming these aren't WORSE for Cameron then he has so far made the right call.

The question is - what will they propose?

Currently 4-3-2

Dave will hope they propose 5-3-2

But his fear will be they propose 5-4-2

UKIP getting Major Party is reason to treat LD and UKIP the same - which argues against the 3 man debate.

audreyanne said:

Clever clever Cameron then.


Write off Cameron at your peril.

David Cameron - The Comeback Kid?

Not at 32%...

YouGov: One poll. MOE. Bit of a Green uptick maybe. Let's see if it lasts.
Basically big two still tied or near as makes no odds at very low historical levels.

Carswell in The Telegraph defending Farage.. must mean he's off!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11358028/The-publics-getting-just-as-cheesed-off-with-parts-of-the-media-as-it-is-with-politicians.html

I'm tempted to stand as a Green candidate in a marginal.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm tempted to stand as a Green candidate in a marginal.

Hallam, Thurrock?

Move over Ashcroft, we have a new double-diamond standard!

isam said:

Carswell in The Telegraph defending Farage.. must mean he's off!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11358028/The-publics-getting-just-as-cheesed-off-with-parts-of-the-media-as-it-is-with-politicians.html

Oh dear. I hope he isn't going down the route of dark UKIP mutterings about 'legacy media' and retribution.

The green surge in all its glory:

http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

I'm calling it a trend :-)

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/557671844401410048

chestnut said:

Is Crap Ed still PM?

905 posts and you don't remember the acronym? EMICIPM or EMICINPM (delete as appropriate).

isam said:

Carswell in The Telegraph defending Farage.. must mean he's off!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11358028/The-publics-getting-just-as-cheesed-off-with-parts-of-the-media-as-it-is-with-politicians.html

Facts seem to be the last concern for journalism these days, all about "clicks" and advertising revenue.

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I thought Farage had his eyes on a ministerial limo.

https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/557672572452872195

Carswell being rather evasive on NHS questions.

I'm massively distracted by Emily Maitlis, I'm not really paying attention to anything Carswell is saying.

If she plays her cards right....

I hold my hand up as someone who did not think we would see anything other than the Greens maintaining at best the position they have steadily risen to over the course of the last year despite Cameron's intervention superficially at their behest, but for the moment at least there does appear to be noticeable movement in the polling, and whether that could possibly be even close to being replicated will be very interesting.

It does not of course make his attempt to portray his nakedly political decision as some principled stand any less phony, but that is politics for you. More worryingly for him, he really needs to be so lucky as to have such a poll replicated, and hit Labour particularly hard across the board, or be lucky that the SNP take off dozens of Labour seats but be unwilling to prop up Ed M, in order to win.

It still seems to me that he has to be very lucky in order to win, whereas Ed M needs to be pretty unlucky not to win. Choice between the two I'd prefer Cameron, though I'd like a Coalition of some sort, but I still cannot see it, though I'll admit that having predicted it for nigh on five years with only the slightest of waverings at times, there's probably some reluctance to consider alternate hypotheses at this stage on my part, not that it means I am incorrect necessarily.

TGOHF said:

Toenails tweets that Chilcott report postponed until after election. Pathetic.

Paricularly ironic on democracy day. Agree with you this should have seen the light months ago.

RobD said:

chestnut said:

Is Crap Ed still PM?

905 posts and you don't remember the acronym? EMICIPM or EMICINPM (delete as appropriate).

I was just thinking to myself that the oft-crowing bigjohnowls is conspicuous by his absence tonight.

Now watch those betting markets move!

hunchman said:

Shadsy latest odds on the Greens:

Brighton Pavilion 8/15
Bristol West 9/2
Edinburgh East 16/1
Norwich South 4/1

Any of these worth backing at these odds? Norwich South looks the most attractive to me without doing any further research - anyone know what's happening on the ground there?

I see that Shadsy has Greens 2 plus seats at 5.5 and 6 at 21 as better value.

Do the pollsters make any adjustments to reflect that the greens will only put candidates up in a few hundred constituencies?

RobD said:

The green surge in all its glory:

http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

Thanks.

The LD decline in 2014 still sticks out every time I see it. Three years of hovering around 10% and just when they need to start building up for the GE, of at least making people think it is not a wasted vote even in seats they currently hold, and they found a way to decline further. Shocking.

I'd say UKIP would be the only winners of this election, but I still think Labour will limp over the finishing line, although it's not far off, what with the Greens unlikely to make any actual gains even if they replicate the most optimistic polling snapshots.

So Miliband says No to English votes as a result of the YES ScotRef vote and his Scottish lefty anti Trident peacnik vote votes plummet. He says no to giving the Greens a voice and his lefty anti trident peacenik vote plummets

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I thought Farage had his eyes on a ministerial limo.

https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/557672572452872195

Carswell being rather evasive on NHS questions.

You mean on one clear issue we can all understand, he is being evasive?

sorry chestnut, my comment was tongue-in-cheek, but that doesn't convey well over the internet!

welshowl said:

chestnut said:

welshowl said:

YouGov: One poll. MOE. Bit of a Green uptick maybe. Let's see if it lasts.
Basically big two still tied or near as makes no odds at very low historical levels.

New floor found for Labour though. To go with Ashcroft's 28/29, and MORI's 29 in two of the last three polls.

The electoral system is on trial come May 7th as much as anything.

It would be rather hilarious if, having seen FPTP deliver two hung parliaments in a row, or something close enough to it that a 'chaotic' period of political horsetrading results, we were suddenly to see a debate on electoral systems as close to being undertaken by the mass public as is possible. Who would make the most of it, and what would they propose I wonder, it could be quite fascinating.

MikeSmithson said:

kle4 said:

RobD said:

The green surge in all its glory:

http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

Thanks.

The LD decline in 2014 still sticks out every time I see it. Three years of hovering around 10% and just when they need to start building up for the GE, of at least making people think it is not a wasted vote even in seats they currently hold, and they found a way to decline further. Shocking.

I'd say UKIP would be the only winners of this election, but I still think Labour will limp over the finishing line, although it's not far off, what with the Greens unlikely to make any actual gains even if they replicate the most optimistic polling snapshots.

Winning Westminster seats needs either defections or deep organisation built up in a constituency over the years - like in Brighton Pavilion. Replicating that elsewhere is going to be hard.

Or a Scot-Nat type surge.

welshowl said:

chestnut said:

welshowl said:

YouGov: One poll. MOE. Bit of a Green uptick maybe. Let's see if it lasts.
Basically big two still tied or near as makes no odds at very low historical levels.

New floor found for Labour though. To go with Ashcroft's 28/29, and MORI's 29 in two of the last three polls.

True enough, but the Tories holding 32% while others fall behind hardly seems a ringing endorsement. Personally I'll be questioning anybody's moral legitimacy to govern alone if we get some weird 31/25/7/14/10 plus 5 nats sort of a result whoever is the 31.

The electoral system is on trial come May 7th as much as anything.

No it isn't, the electoral system is what it is, its the voters common sense that might be questioned more than anything else....

welshowl said:

chestnut said:

welshowl said:

YouGov: One poll. MOE. Bit of a Green uptick maybe. Let's see if it lasts.
Basically big two still tied or near as makes no odds at very low historical levels.

New floor found for Labour though. To go with Ashcroft's 28/29, and MORI's 29 in two of the last three polls.

True enough, but the Tories holding 32% while others fall behind hardly seems a ringing endorsement. Personally I'll be questioning anybody's moral legitimacy to govern alone if we get some weird 31/25/7/14/10 plus 5 nats sort of a result whoever is the 31.

The electoral system is on trial come May 7th as much as anything.

But the election is NOT a national party popularity contest. LAB had a strong majority in 2005 with 35.2% of the UK vote. In that election, remember, the Tories led on vote in England but were 90 behind on English seats. The biues need a lead of 11.4% in England before they stop losing seats to LAB

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

kle4 said:

RobD said:

The green surge in all its glory:

http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

Thanks.

The LD decline in 2014 still sticks out every time I see it. Three years of hovering around 10% and just when they need to start building up for the GE, of at least making people think it is not a wasted vote even in seats they currently hold, and they found a way to decline further. Shocking.

I'd say UKIP would be the only winners of this election, but I still think Labour will limp over the finishing line, although it's not far off, what with the Greens unlikely to make any actual gains even if they replicate the most optimistic polling snapshots.

Winning Westminster seats needs either defections or deep organisation built up in a constituency over the years - like in Brighton Pavilion. Replicating that elsewhere is going to be hard.

Or a Scot-Nat type surge.

The SNP won 75% on the constituency seats in Scotland in 2011. They've got depth which the Greens haven't

MikeSmithson said:

welshowl said:

chestnut said:

welshowl said:

YouGov: One poll. MOE. Bit of a Green uptick maybe. Let's see if it lasts.
Basically big two still tied or near as makes no odds at very low historical levels.

New floor found for Labour though. To go with Ashcroft's 28/29, and MORI's 29 in two of the last three polls.

True enough, but the Tories holding 32% while others fall behind hardly seems a ringing endorsement. Personally I'll be questioning anybody's moral legitimacy to govern alone if we get some weird 31/25/7/14/10 plus 5 nats sort of a result whoever is the 31.

The electoral system is on trial come May 7th as much as anything.

But the election is NOT a national party popularity contest. LAB had a strong majority in 2005 with 35.2% of the UK vote. In that election, remember, the Tories led on vote in England but were 90 behind on English seats. The biues need a lead of 11.4% in England before they stop losing seats to LAB

Let me get this right, the Toxic Tories need an 11.4% lead over Labour in England before they stop losing seats to Labour.

So Toxic and 11.4% ahead in 2010, I assume.. Hmmm.

The Ku Klux Klan accepts gay, black and Jewish members?

http://www.advocate.com/politics/religion/2014/11/11/kkk-accepts-gay-jewish-klansmen

MikeSmithson said:

welshowl said:

chestnut said:

welshowl said:

YouGov: One poll. MOE. Bit of a Green uptick maybe. Let's see if it lasts.
Basically big two still tied or near as makes no odds at very low historical levels.

New floor found for Labour though. To go with Ashcroft's 28/29, and MORI's 29 in two of the last three polls.

True enough, but the Tories holding 32% while others fall behind hardly seems a ringing endorsement. Personally I'll be questioning anybody's moral legitimacy to govern alone if we get some weird 31/25/7/14/10 plus 5 nats sort of a result whoever is the 31.

The electoral system is on trial come May 7th as much as anything.

The blues need a lead of 11.4% in England before they stop losing seats to LAB

A shatteringly high goal for them. Another scenario I would actually be interested in seeing not out of favouring the outcome, but because it seems so out of their reach it would be stunning to see how they pulled it off.

Tim_B said:

The Ku Klux Klan accepts gay, black and Jewish members?

http://www.advocate.com/politics/religion/2014/11/11/kkk-accepts-gay-jewish-klansmen

I recall hearing once that the KKK has been under hard times in recent decades even as other hate groups flourished, as they find themselves more stigmatised than those other groups., hilarious as that is. Amusing attempts to rebrand are inevitable I guess, and a quite welcome diversion too.

Ave_it said:

If it keeps on like this CON will be 212% ahead by GE2015!

Either that or a Green government.

TheScreamingEagles said:

hunchman said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov

Con 32, Lab 30, LD 8, UKIP 15, Greens 10

Lab 5 year low, Green all time high

LOL.

As I said a few nights ago, I still want to see hard evidence of actual Green votes in the ballot box before I take this move in the polls seriously. Anyway I'm sure Mr Cameron is laughing at all this extra publicity that the Greens have been getting over the past fortnight. I still think he's made a wrong move on his positioning over the debates - curious how the initial furore has died down.

Cameron's debate strategy re the Greens is a truly masterful strategy, I wouldn't be surprised to find out George Osborne was behind it.
If the broadcasters agree to adding the Greens to the debates, then Dave should also insist the SNP are in the debates

If the SNP were saying they wanted to form a coalition for the UK govt then well yes. (I can't work out if I am being serious there)
But the Greens in the debate was the obvious card to play in the circumstances; lets not damn with faint praise but Cameron and whoever did not have to think too long on this. As our American cousins would say - 'Politics 101'

And hey presto ... 'Kapow!' Not only did the other parties say no to the Greens, they said it in a way that clearly dissed the Greens as being less value than UKIP! Come on - if you are a nutjob anti capitalist lefty... what would you do when the pollsters came calling?

JWisemann said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

If memory serves me correctly, RodCrosby predicted some months ago that in January 2015 we'd start to see a number of polls showing Conservative leads.

Jus' sayin'...

Out of all the polls in January how many have been labour leads and how many have been tory leads? Clue - it's about the same as lots of months last year.

Really?