As I said a few nights ago, I still want to see hard evidence of actual Green votes in the ballot box before I take this move in the polls seriously. Anyway I'm sure Mr Cameron is laughing at all this extra publicity that the Greens have been getting over the past fortnight. I still think he's made a wrong move on his positioning over the debates - curious how the initial furore has died down.
Anyway, this backs up my prediction that it's Labour's separate battlegrounds with the Greens, UKIP and SNP that will decide the election.
The Tories are pretty much spectators to the entire process and have to rely on those 3 other parties to tear chunks out of Labour in order for the Tories to fall backwards into first place (notable that their 32% today is hardly that spectacular). That said, Labour seem perfectly willing to carry on pushing those voters away to those parties with their policy on spending cuts which is more right-wing than 60% of the public, so the Tories very likely are onto a winner.
If Ed hadn't lost about 7-8% to the Greens he'd still be comfortably ahead.
Not sure. Whilst not as dramatic it would probably be reflected in other way's such as people refusing to say how they would vote, not being certain to vote, etc...
I assume a lot of these Red Green's will eventually stay at home on the day?
and so it begins.. the much pilloried Dan Hodges might be right after all.. Its no surprise really, the very idea of a dork like Ed Miliband as PM was always going to scare voters away.
As I said a few nights ago, I still want to see hard evidence of actual Green votes in the ballot box before I take this move in the polls seriously. Anyway I'm sure Mr Cameron is laughing at all this extra publicity that the Greens have been getting over the past fortnight. I still think he's made a wrong move on his positioning over the debates - curious how the initial furore has died down.
Cameron's debate strategy re the Greens is a truly masterful strategy, I wouldn't be surprised to find out George Osborne was behind it.
If the broadcasters agree to adding the Greens to the debates, then Dave should also insist the SNP are in the debates
The debate thing is clearly the cleverest Cameron/Osborne/Crosby ruse to date. Not only is the Green publicity starting to suck Labour dry, it also means that Ed can't now risk the debate himself, with his left flank horribly exposed. So Dave can wash his hands of the Nigel threat into the bargain.
Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc
More the merrier in the debates tho eh ?
If 10% ish of people are thinking of voting for them I don't see why not, although the reason for them being on 10% is a bit dubious
An hour of Natalie Bennett and I think I will confidently call "Peak Hippy"
Reasons why Natalie Bennett will do well in the debates.
1/ She's a woman and not part of the old boy system. She's not a Maggie Thatcher who could have been a man in woman's clothes, politically speaking.
Sorry, but that is tired meaningless lefty bollocks. Not to mention it flies in the face of lefty orthodoxy which is that it is transphobic (or something) to question her right to self-identify as female.
In the same spirit, I am hoping that the left will declare that Obama is not really black now that we know that Dave is his main homie.
If you don't think that a woman as a party leader who is not part of the elite will attract more female voters that is your right, but do you have to be so offensive?
You said: "She's not a Maggie Thatcher who could have been a man in woman's clothes, politically speaking."
Which bit of "tired meaningless lefty bollocks" fails to apply to that statement? Is "tired meaningless lefty b*ll*cks" more acceptable?
Thatcher was a hardline Conservative. She was ruthless. She was confrontational. She said she hated feminism. She called it poison. She cut child benefit in real terms. She did not reach out to the female demographic other than by being a female, and the first female PM. Tell me what she did for women that a male prime minister wouldn't have done?
I remember Thatcher quoting Francis of Assisi. She did not put that quote into practice. You tell me what Thatcher did for women? For women's rights? For women's health? For child care? I can tell you what Obama has done. There is a long list of things that Obama has done for women, the black demographic and other under-represented demographics.
I made the distinction that Thatcher was a man in woman's clothes POLITICALLY SPEAKING. Demonstrate that to be untrue and then maybe your offensive retort will appear to be justified.
Those who wrote him off over the TV debates are looking pretty stupid right now. He has given the Greens the oxygen of publicity, and they are now hoovering up some of the anti-establishment sentiment, which is knocking Labour and quite possibly UKIP.
YouGov: One poll. MOE. Bit of a Green uptick maybe. Let's see if it lasts. Basically big two still tied or near as makes no odds at very low historical levels.
Brighton Pavilion 8/15 Bristol West 9/2 Edinburgh East 16/1 Norwich South 4/1
Any of these worth backing at these odds? Norwich South looks the most attractive to me without doing any further research - anyone know what's happening on the ground there?
That's 3 polls which strongly goes against it being an outlier as SeanF knee-jerked, nor mere MoE noise.
You're right, it might not last, but the Green surge is currently evident.
I remember Mike, I think, posting long ago that Cameron is a lucky politician. Maybe he is. Or maybe he makes his luck. But the Green surge is making it virtually impossible to exclude them from the debates and if any TV broadcaster tries I suspect they will surge further. There's still a lot of anti-establishment anger in the ether. So do they exclude them and see the Greens surge more to Labour's cost? Or include them to Cameron's benefit?
YouGov: One poll. MOE. Bit of a Green uptick maybe. Let's see if it lasts. Basically big two still tied or near as makes no odds at very low historical levels.
New floor found for Labour though. To go with Ashcroft's 28/29, and MORI's 29 in two of the last three polls.
I hold my hand up as someone who did not think we would see anything other than the Greens maintaining at best the position they have steadily risen to over the course of the last year despite Cameron's intervention superficially at their behest, but for the moment at least there does appear to be noticeable movement in the polling, and whether that could possibly be even close to being replicated will be very interesting.
It does not of course make his attempt to portray his nakedly political decision as some principled stand any less phony, but that is politics for you. More worryingly for him, he really needs to be so lucky as to have such a poll replicated, and hit Labour particularly hard across the board, or be lucky that the SNP take off dozens of Labour seats but be unwilling to prop up Ed M, in order to win.
It still seems to me that he has to be very lucky in order to win, whereas Ed M needs to be pretty unlucky not to win. Choice between the two I'd prefer Cameron, though I'd like a Coalition of some sort, but I still cannot see it, though I'll admit that having predicted it for nigh on five years with only the slightest of waverings at times, there's probably some reluctance to consider alternate hypotheses at this stage on my part, not that it means I am incorrect necessarily.
Brighton Pavilion 8/15 Bristol West 9/2 Edinburgh East 16/1 Norwich South 4/1
Any of these worth backing at these odds? Norwich South looks the most attractive to me without doing any further research - anyone know what's happening on the ground there?
I see that Shadsy has Greens 2 plus seats at 5.5 and 6 at 21 as better value.
Toenails tweets that Chilcott report postponed until after election. Pathetic.
Paricularly ironic on democracy day. Agree with you this should have seen the light months ago.
It should have been released ages ago, but were that to happen now, 10 weeks before an election, the squeals of "but it's blatant electioneering, they're playing politics, blah blah blah" would drown out everything else.
The LD decline in 2014 still sticks out every time I see it. Three years of hovering around 10% and just when they need to start building up for the GE, of at least making people think it is not a wasted vote even in seats they currently hold, and they found a way to decline further. Shocking.
I'd say UKIP would be the only winners of this election, but I still think Labour will limp over the finishing line, although it's not far off, what with the Greens unlikely to make any actual gains even if they replicate the most optimistic polling snapshots.
So Miliband says No to English votes as a result of the YES ScotRef vote and his Scottish lefty anti Trident peacnik vote votes plummet. He says no to giving the Greens a voice and his lefty anti trident peacenik vote plummets
YouGov: One poll. MOE. Bit of a Green uptick maybe. Let's see if it lasts. Basically big two still tied or near as makes no odds at very low historical levels.
New floor found for Labour though. To go with Ashcroft's 28/29, and MORI's 29 in two of the last three polls.
True enough, but the Tories holding 32% while others fall behind hardly seems a ringing endorsement. Personally I'll be questioning anybody's moral legitimacy to govern alone if we get some weird 31/25/7/14/10 plus 5 nats sort of a result whoever is the 31.
The electoral system is on trial come May 7th as much as anything.
The LD decline in 2014 still sticks out every time I see it. Three years of hovering around 10% and just when they need to start building up for the GE, of at least making people think it is not a wasted vote even in seats they currently hold, and they found a way to decline further. Shocking.
I'd say UKIP would be the only winners of this election, but I still think Labour will limp over the finishing line, although it's not far off, what with the Greens unlikely to make any actual gains even if they replicate the most optimistic polling snapshots.
Winning Westminster seats needs either defections or deep organisation built up in a constituency over the years - like in Brighton Pavilion. Replicating that elsewhere is going to be hard.
YouGov: One poll. MOE. Bit of a Green uptick maybe. Let's see if it lasts. Basically big two still tied or near as makes no odds at very low historical levels.
New floor found for Labour though. To go with Ashcroft's 28/29, and MORI's 29 in two of the last three polls.
The electoral system is on trial come May 7th as much as anything.
It would be rather hilarious if, having seen FPTP deliver two hung parliaments in a row, or something close enough to it that a 'chaotic' period of political horsetrading results, we were suddenly to see a debate on electoral systems as close to being undertaken by the mass public as is possible. Who would make the most of it, and what would they propose I wonder, it could be quite fascinating.
The LD decline in 2014 still sticks out every time I see it. Three years of hovering around 10% and just when they need to start building up for the GE, of at least making people think it is not a wasted vote even in seats they currently hold, and they found a way to decline further. Shocking.
I'd say UKIP would be the only winners of this election, but I still think Labour will limp over the finishing line, although it's not far off, what with the Greens unlikely to make any actual gains even if they replicate the most optimistic polling snapshots.
This article was on page 2 of the Evening Standard last night:
Personally think Mr Hayward is talking his own book somewhat, but my general impression of following the local election results has been that the Tories are doing slightly better relative to the polls and Labour slightly worse.
Looking forward to seeing how the former SAS man turned UKIP PPC Nigel Ely goes on in Hereford.
The LD decline in 2014 still sticks out every time I see it. Three years of hovering around 10% and just when they need to start building up for the GE, of at least making people think it is not a wasted vote even in seats they currently hold, and they found a way to decline further. Shocking.
I'd say UKIP would be the only winners of this election, but I still think Labour will limp over the finishing line, although it's not far off, what with the Greens unlikely to make any actual gains even if they replicate the most optimistic polling snapshots.
Winning Westminster seats needs either defections or deep organisation built up in a constituency over the years - like in Brighton Pavilion. Replicating that elsewhere is going to be hard.
YouGov: One poll. MOE. Bit of a Green uptick maybe. Let's see if it lasts. Basically big two still tied or near as makes no odds at very low historical levels.
New floor found for Labour though. To go with Ashcroft's 28/29, and MORI's 29 in two of the last three polls.
True enough, but the Tories holding 32% while others fall behind hardly seems a ringing endorsement. Personally I'll be questioning anybody's moral legitimacy to govern alone if we get some weird 31/25/7/14/10 plus 5 nats sort of a result whoever is the 31.
The electoral system is on trial come May 7th as much as anything.
No it isn't, the electoral system is what it is, its the voters common sense that might be questioned more than anything else....
YouGov: One poll. MOE. Bit of a Green uptick maybe. Let's see if it lasts. Basically big two still tied or near as makes no odds at very low historical levels.
New floor found for Labour though. To go with Ashcroft's 28/29, and MORI's 29 in two of the last three polls.
True enough, but the Tories holding 32% while others fall behind hardly seems a ringing endorsement. Personally I'll be questioning anybody's moral legitimacy to govern alone if we get some weird 31/25/7/14/10 plus 5 nats sort of a result whoever is the 31.
The electoral system is on trial come May 7th as much as anything.
But the election is NOT a national party popularity contest. LAB had a strong majority in 2005 with 35.2% of the UK vote. In that election, remember, the Tories led on vote in England but were 90 behind on English seats. The biues need a lead of 11.4% in England before they stop losing seats to LAB
Ishmail_X ..... You owe me £15. Please email me at peterfromputney@gmail.com to arrange payment.
Have done. Sorry, is arklebar the other peter?
Er yes ...... see how long exactly have you been posting on PB.com?
Must be quite some time, for me to know enough to make that mistake
Anyway have emailed you now
Thanks - I've replied to you.
All done!
Many thanks for being so prompt - good to do biz with you - I'm sure I'll give you a chance to win your money back sometime over the GE campaign/contest.
The LD decline in 2014 still sticks out every time I see it. Three years of hovering around 10% and just when they need to start building up for the GE, of at least making people think it is not a wasted vote even in seats they currently hold, and they found a way to decline further. Shocking.
I'd say UKIP would be the only winners of this election, but I still think Labour will limp over the finishing line, although it's not far off, what with the Greens unlikely to make any actual gains even if they replicate the most optimistic polling snapshots.
Winning Westminster seats needs either defections or deep organisation built up in a constituency over the years - like in Brighton Pavilion. Replicating that elsewhere is going to be hard.
Or a Scot-Nat type surge.
The SNP won 75% on the constituency seats in Scotland in 2011. They've got depth which the Greens haven't
YouGov: One poll. MOE. Bit of a Green uptick maybe. Let's see if it lasts. Basically big two still tied or near as makes no odds at very low historical levels.
New floor found for Labour though. To go with Ashcroft's 28/29, and MORI's 29 in two of the last three polls.
True enough, but the Tories holding 32% while others fall behind hardly seems a ringing endorsement. Personally I'll be questioning anybody's moral legitimacy to govern alone if we get some weird 31/25/7/14/10 plus 5 nats sort of a result whoever is the 31.
The electoral system is on trial come May 7th as much as anything.
But the election is NOT a national party popularity contest. LAB had a strong majority in 2005 with 35.2% of the UK vote. In that election, remember, the Tories led on vote in England but were 90 behind on English seats. The biues need a lead of 11.4% in England before they stop losing seats to LAB
Let me get this right, the Toxic Tories need an 11.4% lead over Labour in England before they stop losing seats to Labour.
So Toxic and 11.4% ahead in 2010, I assume.. Hmmm.
If memory serves me correctly, RodCrosby predicted some months ago that in January 2015 we'd start to see a number of polls showing Conservative leads.
YouGov: One poll. MOE. Bit of a Green uptick maybe. Let's see if it lasts. Basically big two still tied or near as makes no odds at very low historical levels.
New floor found for Labour though. To go with Ashcroft's 28/29, and MORI's 29 in two of the last three polls.
True enough, but the Tories holding 32% while others fall behind hardly seems a ringing endorsement. Personally I'll be questioning anybody's moral legitimacy to govern alone if we get some weird 31/25/7/14/10 plus 5 nats sort of a result whoever is the 31.
The electoral system is on trial come May 7th as much as anything.
The blues need a lead of 11.4% in England before they stop losing seats to LAB
A shatteringly high goal for them. Another scenario I would actually be interested in seeing not out of favouring the outcome, but because it seems so out of their reach it would be stunning to see how they pulled it off.
YouGov: One poll. MOE. Bit of a Green uptick maybe. Let's see if it lasts. Basically big two still tied or near as makes no odds at very low historical levels.
New floor found for Labour though. To go with Ashcroft's 28/29, and MORI's 29 in two of the last three polls.
True enough, but the Tories holding 32% while others fall behind hardly seems a ringing endorsement. Personally I'll be questioning anybody's moral legitimacy to govern alone if we get some weird 31/25/7/14/10 plus 5 nats sort of a result whoever is the 31.
The electoral system is on trial come May 7th as much as anything.
Totally agreed - I can't wait to see the stats for MP's elected with under 30% of the vote, 30-35% of the vote and those still getting over 50% in their individual consistency. How much the 2 former metrics are up on 2010, and the latter metric down against 2010 will be very telling as to the complete and utter unsustainability of the current system. Having said that the British electorate has proved very adept over past GE's to get the overall 'desired' result in spite of the wretched system for a now 7 party system plus Northern Ireland.
I recall hearing once that the KKK has been under hard times in recent decades even as other hate groups flourished, as they find themselves more stigmatised than those other groups., hilarious as that is. Amusing attempts to rebrand are inevitable I guess, and a quite welcome diversion too.
As I said a few nights ago, I still want to see hard evidence of actual Green votes in the ballot box before I take this move in the polls seriously. Anyway I'm sure Mr Cameron is laughing at all this extra publicity that the Greens have been getting over the past fortnight. I still think he's made a wrong move on his positioning over the debates - curious how the initial furore has died down.
Cameron's debate strategy re the Greens is a truly masterful strategy, I wouldn't be surprised to find out George Osborne was behind it. If the broadcasters agree to adding the Greens to the debates, then Dave should also insist the SNP are in the debates
If the SNP were saying they wanted to form a coalition for the UK govt then well yes. (I can't work out if I am being serious there) But the Greens in the debate was the obvious card to play in the circumstances; lets not damn with faint praise but Cameron and whoever did not have to think too long on this. As our American cousins would say - 'Politics 101'
And hey presto ... 'Kapow!' Not only did the other parties say no to the Greens, they said it in a way that clearly dissed the Greens as being less value than UKIP! Come on - if you are a nutjob anti capitalist lefty... what would you do when the pollsters came calling?
If memory serves me correctly, RodCrosby predicted some months ago that in January 2015 we'd start to see a number of polls showing Conservative leads.
Jus' sayin'...
Out of all the polls in January how many have been labour leads and how many have been tory leads? Clue - it's about the same as lots of months last year.
If memory serves me correctly, RodCrosby predicted some months ago that in January 2015 we'd start to see a number of polls showing Conservative leads.
Jus' sayin'...
Out of all the polls in January how many have been labour leads and how many have been tory leads? Clue - it's about the same as lots of months last year.
That is a desperate poll for Labour. I did wonder whether Ed Miliband, of all people, could increase the historically poor vote achieved by Gordon Brown, even as Labour's vote has fallen by five million votes in 15 years, and shows no signs of recovering.
And yet, given the electoral bias in his favour, I still foresee Ed scraping a narrow plurality. With a new election soon afterwards.
The Scots, damn them, will determine this election.
If the SNP wipe the board with 40 MP's or so and have a massive disproportionate influence on the next parliament, then I as someone in the Nationalist camp will just say 'told you so'. As usual so many people were thinking in terms of the immediate situation instead of thinking about the dynamic situation up the road. To think that so many of the Unionist camp thought that any defeat on the Independence referendum would lead to a repeat of the 1978/9 situation with a big fall off in SNP support were incredibly misguided to say the least!
Comments
I'm starting to think the Lib's aren't ever going to recover and might actually be heading for oblivion...
Ed Miliband is fkd and not PM
Gnight
As I said a few nights ago, I still want to see hard evidence of actual Green votes in the ballot box before I take this move in the polls seriously. Anyway I'm sure Mr Cameron is laughing at all this extra publicity that the Greens have been getting over the past fortnight. I still think he's made a wrong move on his positioning over the debates - curious how the initial furore has died down.
The Tories are pretty much spectators to the entire process and have to rely on those 3 other parties to tear chunks out of Labour in order for the Tories to fall backwards into first place (notable that their 32% today is hardly that spectacular). That said, Labour seem perfectly willing to carry on pushing those voters away to those parties with their policy on spending cuts which is more right-wing than 60% of the public, so the Tories very likely are onto a winner.
I assume a lot of these Red Green's will eventually stay at home on the day?
This poll's obviously an outlier, but does confirm:-
1. The basic division between 45% voting Left (if one includes nationalists) and 47% voting right.
2. Con and Lab are basically tied.
YouGov? Must be an outlier!
If the broadcasters agree to adding the Greens to the debates, then Dave should also insist the SNP are in the debates
PtP I'll email you at arklebar. Say if you don't get it.
I remember Thatcher quoting Francis of Assisi. She did not put that quote into practice. You tell me what Thatcher did for women? For women's rights? For women's health? For child care? I can tell you what Obama has done. There is a long list of things that Obama has done for women, the black demographic and other under-represented demographics.
I made the distinction that Thatcher was a man in woman's clothes POLITICALLY SPEAKING. Demonstrate that to be untrue and then maybe your offensive retort will appear to be justified.
Brecon, St Ives, Cheadle?
Those who wrote him off over the TV debates are looking pretty stupid right now. He has given the Greens the oxygen of publicity, and they are now hoovering up some of the anti-establishment sentiment, which is knocking Labour and quite possibly UKIP.
Write off Cameron at your peril.
The question is - what will they propose?
Currently 4-3-2
Dave will hope they propose 5-3-2
But his fear will be they propose 5-4-2
UKIP getting Major Party is reason to treat LD and UKIP the same - which argues against the 3 man debate.
Not at 32%...
Basically big two still tied or near as makes no odds at very low historical levels.
Brighton Pavilion 8/15
Bristol West 9/2
Edinburgh East 16/1
Norwich South 4/1
Any of these worth backing at these odds? Norwich South looks the most attractive to me without doing any further research - anyone know what's happening on the ground there?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11358028/The-publics-getting-just-as-cheesed-off-with-parts-of-the-media-as-it-is-with-politicians.html
CON 316 35%
LAB 242 28%
LD 32 15%
SNP 14
PC 5
GRN 2 7%
UKIP 1 10%
NI 18
http://goo.gl/9RfFdf
Anyway have emailed you now
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/557671844401410048
You're right, it might not last, but the Green surge is currently evident.
I remember Mike, I think, posting long ago that Cameron is a lucky politician. Maybe he is. Or maybe he makes his luck. But the Green surge is making it virtually impossible to exclude them from the debates and if any TV broadcaster tries I suspect they will surge further. There's still a lot of anti-establishment anger in the ether. So do they exclude them and see the Greens surge more to Labour's cost? Or include them to Cameron's benefit?
Win-Win Cameron.
https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/557672572452872195
Ave it representing Watford
Hunchman representing Crewe and Nantwich
Sunil Ilford South
OGH Bedford
Foxinsoxuk Leicester South
If she plays her cards right....
"I'm starting to think the Lib's aren't ever going to recover and might actually be heading for oblivion..."
The Lib Dems sold out their principles for power and historically that's something the electorate doesn't forgive.
It does not of course make his attempt to portray his nakedly political decision as some principled stand any less phony, but that is politics for you. More worryingly for him, he really needs to be so lucky as to have such a poll replicated, and hit Labour particularly hard across the board, or be lucky that the SNP take off dozens of Labour seats but be unwilling to prop up Ed M, in order to win.
It still seems to me that he has to be very lucky in order to win, whereas Ed M needs to be pretty unlucky not to win. Choice between the two I'd prefer Cameron, though I'd like a Coalition of some sort, but I still cannot see it, though I'll admit that having predicted it for nigh on five years with only the slightest of waverings at times, there's probably some reluctance to consider alternate hypotheses at this stage on my part, not that it means I am incorrect necessarily.
Lewisham Deptford: 6.72%
Hackney North: 4.59%
Hackney South: 3.48%
Islington North: 3.03%
Camberwell: 2.92%
Holborn: 2.71%
Dulwich: 2.63%
Ilford South: 2.58%
Greenwich: 2.56%
Tottenham: 2.41%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Y6K9EfRuZ4AVVHPyXu2rgfhOwd7I-f1xWmj7-YMxrRA/edit#gid=0
A pity he couldn't remain a Tory.
Now watch those betting markets move!
The LD decline in 2014 still sticks out every time I see it. Three years of hovering around 10% and just when they need to start building up for the GE, of at least making people think it is not a wasted vote even in seats they currently hold, and they found a way to decline further. Shocking.
I'd say UKIP would be the only winners of this election, but I still think Labour will limp over the finishing line, although it's not far off, what with the Greens unlikely to make any actual gains even if they replicate the most optimistic polling snapshots.
The electoral system is on trial come May 7th as much as anything.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/shy-tory-voters-improve-labours-poll-performance-9988769.html
Personally think Mr Hayward is talking his own book somewhat, but my general impression of following the local election results has been that the Tories are doing slightly better relative to the polls and Labour slightly worse.
Looking forward to seeing how the former SAS man turned UKIP PPC Nigel Ely goes on in Hereford.
I'm calling it a trend :->
So Toxic and 11.4% ahead in 2010, I assume.. Hmmm.
http://www.advocate.com/politics/religion/2014/11/11/kkk-accepts-gay-jewish-klansmen
Jus' sayin'...
But the Greens in the debate was the obvious card to play in the circumstances; lets not damn with faint praise but Cameron and whoever did not have to think too long on this. As our American cousins would say - 'Politics 101'
And hey presto ... 'Kapow!' Not only did the other parties say no to the Greens, they said it in a way that clearly dissed the Greens as being less value than UKIP! Come on - if you are a nutjob anti capitalist lefty... what would you do when the pollsters came calling?