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Marf on Democracy day pic.twitter.com/coMtLMz6dY
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peter_from_putney said:
Anyone care to give me odds of 6/4 that the Tories are ahead in tonight's YouGov poll? You pay me £30 if they are, I pay you £20 if they're behind. The bet is void if they are equal (in whole numbers). First reputable bettor to accept by 8.15pm secures. Settlement by electronic bank transfer within 72 hours.
Sorry, time's up guys.
Hard to see what else could be noteworthy - maybe a Con lead but I certainly wouldn't predict that.
Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.
An hour of Natalie Bennett and I think I will confidently call "Peak Hippy"
Hills annoyingly slassed their odds of UKIP getting 3-4 seats from 8.0 to 7.0. Managed to get close to £100 on there, short of my eventual target though...
I don't rate their chances in Rother Valley. Their polling in the PCC by-election was disappointing and I would have expected a high turnout for UKIP voters in light of the CSE scandel.
Could even refer to supplementaries not VI.
A total sell out with tout tickets exchanging for £350.
Can't wait.
If Natalie Bennett gets to talk about austerity, tuition fees and evil capitalism then she may do quite well. But if the subjects of international affairs, immigration and energy policy come up she may not do so well.
I notice their website doesn't talk about the 'difficult' issues:
http://greenparty.org.uk/values/
If you go into the vanilla menu and search for "Stoke on Trent South" you should get a list of all the ones I worked out UKIP may have a chance in off the back of 2010 results
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scots-ukip-mep-david-coburn-5011809
“If we had all voted Yes, Scotland would have its begging bowl out to England,” said Coburn.
“I am a proud Scot and the last thing I want to see is my country with a begging bowl out to anybody because of a bunch of economic numpties who don’t know anything about finance.
“Nobody can base an economy on a commodity price, it is insanity.
“And if it had happened - if Scotland had voted Yes - they’d be hanging Salmond and Helmet Hairdo and all her silly friends.
“They’d be stringing them up from lampposts in Charlotte Square by now.”
SCOTLAND'S only UKIP politician has sparked fury by claiming Alex Salmond would be “hanging from a lamppost” if there had been a vote for independence.
MEP David Coburn said the falling oil price would have crashed a go-it-alone Scotland’s economy and predicted the public would have taken violent reprisals against Salmond and his successor as First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon.
In an incendiary interview he also branded the SNP a “racist party”, revealed UKIP would drop the Smith Commission plans for more Holyrood powers and repeatedly referred to Sturgeon as “Helmet Hairdo”.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scots-ukip-mep-david-coburn-5011809
Chilcot report on Iraq war delayed until after general election
Outcry at yet another postponement to findings of inquiry, which stopped taking evidence in 2011
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/20/chilcot-report-iraq-war-delayed-general-election
Possible, but unlikely.
One of the big two have broken away with a significant lead?
Possible.
UKIP were ahead on the first question of Lord Ashcroft's poll, but Labour have a 6 point gap on the second question. I think that my tip at 8-1 was an excellent price, and I'd price the constituency up as
1-4; 4-1 the pair Labour/UKIP
William Hill at this moment are 8-1 UKIP, and Ladbrokes 1-6 Labour - so there is free money available right now on this one.
Democrats: 35% approve, 38% disapprove
Republicans: 25% approve, 46% disapprove
That shows the challenge for the next Republican nominee, especially in states like Florida and Ohio, which have a Democrat lean and likely have over 50% disapproval for the Republicans.
1/ She's a woman and not part of the old boy system. She's not a Maggie Thatcher who could have been a man in woman's clothes, politically speaking.
2/ She's a woman and females will say "here's somebody to represent me."
3/ She's a woman without much in the way of charisma and struggles to give an answer, and people will say she seems like a genuine person and doesn't look or sound like a slick snake-oil salesman politician.
4/ She's a woman leading a party that is concerned with issues that matter to millions of people who feel they are not represented such as greater social equality and opportunity, living wages for all and the environment.
5/ She's a woman who will get less screen time than the men, and people will think that is unfair and male chauvinist.
Wonder why every party doesn't just appoint a characterless, female leader?
Maybe we can get a black person to represent the black people, and an Asian in to speak for the Asians?
What about gay people though? So underrepresented!
I want someone from Essex, right footed with brown hair else I will feel left out
Any negatives you can think of (for Bennett, not women leaders generally)
But she's also fecking Australian, and as boring as a blowfly on the barbie...
http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F6581wings.pdf
William Hills 9-2 UKIP
Ladbrokes 1-4 Labour
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30908938
Chilcott not to be served until post May election.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWY_s8yIRfo
I'm expecting a Bennett-asm. (And Farage has the most to fear - his glassy-eyed golf-club sauntering could be most easily pricked.)
In the same spirit, I am hoping that the left will declare that Obama is not really black now that we know that Dave is his main homie.
Next up George Galloway for the debates. At least he would be interesting...
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/557645209253969921
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/557651631580667905
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/557656934237892608
Which bit of "tired meaningless lefty bollocks" fails to apply to that statement? Is "tired meaningless lefty b*ll*cks" more acceptable?
And are you feeling the FTSE 8,000 prediction pressure?!
Con 32, Lab 30, LD 8, UKIP 15, Greens 10
Lab 5 year low, Green all time high
I don't understand it - when the FTSE goes up, my ISA goes down! And vice versas!
Unlike Crewe which always goes down!!!
YouGov!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Lab =
What funny times we live in. Goodnight all. Early start tomorrow.
He's a brilliant politician, bitches.
Interesting. A bit sceptical that it will affect marginals, though it does strengthen the case for including them in a debate.
Are you sure your ISA hasn't morphed into a FTSE bear fund?! Ave it hoping for a FTSE crash - perish the thought!
CON GAIN Glasgow North.
Nick Palmer to become errand runner for Peter Bone's wife.
Perhaps what our democracy needs is for both big parties to have a significant challenge to their natural support to keep them honest