politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The evening thread – Marf on Democracy Day

First?

Danny565 said:

surbiton said:

eek said:

Here's a strange one. Bishop Auckland's mayor has quit the Labour party and joined UKIP http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/11737120.Bishop_Auckland_s_Labour_mayor_defects_to_UKIP/

Why ?

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:

isam said:

Someone needs to tell Shadsy UKIP are going to get beat in Thurrock, he has shortened them to 4/7 today, shortest they've been

Green vote share market pulled! Was over under 4% with over 8/13

Apart from Clacton, Thanet S, Thurrock, G Yarmouth and Boston & Skegness which other seats do you think UKIP could win ?

Rochester & Strood, Plymouth Moor View, Grimsby, Dudley North, Dover, Rotherham, Rother Valley, Thanet North, Huntingdon, Folkestone, St. Austell, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, Camborne & Redruth.

Would you recommend getting on Gillingham & Rainham?

there's hope for the TPD - one of the kippers thinks he's in with a chance!!

FPT at 8.00pm

peter_from_putney said:
Anyone care to give me odds of 6/4 that the Tories are ahead in tonight's YouGov poll? You pay me £30 if they are, I pay you £20 if they're behind. The bet is void if they are equal (in whole numbers). First reputable bettor to accept by 8.15pm secures. Settlement by electronic bank transfer within 72 hours.

Sorry, time's up guys.

Greens were on 7 with YouGov last night so would have thought need to be on at least 9 to be noteworthy, and probably 10.

Hard to see what else could be noteworthy - maybe a Con lead but I certainly wouldn't predict that.

Danny565 said:

surbiton said:

eek said:

Here's a strange one. Bishop Auckland's mayor has quit the Labour party and joined UKIP http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/11737120.Bishop_Auckland_s_Labour_mayor_defects_to_UKIP/

Why ?

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:

isam said:

Someone needs to tell Shadsy UKIP are going to get beat in Thurrock, he has shortened them to 4/7 today, shortest they've been

Green vote share market pulled! Was over under 4% with over 8/13

Apart from Clacton, Thanet S, Thurrock, G Yarmouth and Boston & Skegness which other seats do you think UKIP could win ?

Rochester & Strood, Plymouth Moor View, Grimsby, Dudley North, Dover, Rotherham, Rother Valley, Thanet North, Huntingdon, Folkestone, St. Austell, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, Camborne & Redruth.

Would you recommend getting on Gillingham & Rainham?

I think that's safe for the Tories.

MikeL said:

Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.

Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc

TGOHF said:

isam said:

MikeL said:

Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.

Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc

More the merrier in the debates tho eh ?

If 10% ish of people are thinking of voting for them I don't see why not, although the reason for them being on 10% is a bit dubious

An hour of Natalie Bennett and I think I will confidently call "Peak Hippy"

Ishmael_X said:

peter_from_putney said:

Ishmael_X said:

peter_from_putney said:

FPT at 8.00pm

peter_from_putney said:
Anyone care to give me odds of 6/4 that the Tories are ahead in tonight's YouGov poll? You pay me £30 if they are, I pay you £20 if they're behind. The bet is void if they are equal (in whole numbers). First reputable bettor to accept by 8.15pm secures. Settlement by electronic bank transfer within 72 hours.

Sorry, time's up guys.

Also fpt, I'll have 50% of that if no one else will and if I am reputable enough.

Go on then Ishmael, since you came through at 8.15pm, I'll take you on at half my originally proposed bet, i.e. my tenner vs your £15. Post back asap to confirm that you agree.

agreed!

Thanks - we should know the result at around 10.30 pm!

MP_SE said:

isam said:

MP_SE said:

Whats the opinion on Castle Point? Last I heard the independent councillors who before a number of defections had a majority and had promised to support UKIP in the GE.

Big chance for UKIP there and will be lots of campaigning I think

Interesting, I will have to give it a look.

Hills annoyingly slassed their odds of UKIP getting 3-4 seats from 8.0 to 7.0. Managed to get close to £100 on there, short of my eventual target though...

I don't rate their chances in Rother Valley. Their polling in the PCC by-election was disappointing and I would have expected a high turnout for UKIP voters in light of the CSE scandel.

Hmmm I think there are quite a lot of people in Rotherham etc who have good reason to prefer the status quo!

If you go into the vanilla menu and search for "Stoke on Trent South" you should get a list of all the ones I worked out UKIP may have a chance in off the back of 2010 results

I bet the Sun are overselling this poll. It'll probably just be the Greens on 9% or something.

TGOHF said:

Toenails tweets that Chilcott report postponed until after election. Pathetic.

Indeed.

FPT

Theuniondivvie said:

Edin_Rokz said:

richardDodd said:

Why dont the SNP and the 45,ers just grow some balls and declare UDI ..It would stop all this whinging

Can't find microscopes powerful enough to find 'em, to remove them.

That's pretty rich from someone so scrotally challenged that they won't admit to being a SLab supporter. Come on man, have the courage of your (no doubt flexible) convictions.

Not least - and I am utterly serious here - because it would be a very substantial addition to the biodiversity, or twitch list, of the PB site. A vacuum needing to be filled.

I wonder if this will be leaked before the election

Chilcot report on Iraq war delayed until after general election

Outcry at yet another postponement to findings of inquiry, which stopped taking evidence in 2011

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/20/chilcot-report-iraq-war-delayed-general-election

Socrates said:

isam said:

MikeL said:

Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.

Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc

If the Greens get included in the third debate based on polling, then UKIP should get into the second debate based on polling.

Because...?

Looking at Tom Newton Dunn's tweet, for it to be the Greens in third place, it would need a swing greater than 4% from UKIP to Greens.

Possible, but unlikely.

One of the big two have broken away with a significant lead?

Possible.

Danny565 said:

I bet the Sun are overselling this poll. It'll probably just be the Greens on 9% or something.

Perhaps a pair of tits have polled 5%?

And I'm not referring to Carswell and Reckless on this occasion.

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

MikeL said:

Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.

Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc

More the merrier in the debates tho eh ?

If 10% ish of people are thinking of voting for them I don't see why not, although the reason for them being on 10% is a bit dubious

An hour of Natalie Bennett and I think I will confidently call "Peak Hippy"

Reasons why Natalie Bennett will do well in the debates.

1/ She's a woman and not part of the old boy system. She's not a Maggie Thatcher who could have been a man in woman's clothes, politically speaking.

2/ She's a woman and females will say "here's somebody to represent me."

3/ She's a woman without much in the way of charisma and struggles to give an answer, and people will say she seems like a genuine person and doesn't look or sound like a slick snake-oil salesman politician.

4/ She's a woman leading a party that is concerned with issues that matter to millions of people who feel they are not represented such as greater social equality and opportunity, living wages for all and the environment.

5/ She's a woman who will get less screen time than the men, and people will think that is unfair and male chauvinist.

isam said:

Edwardian said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

MikeL said:

Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.

Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc

More the merrier in the debates tho eh ?

If 10% ish of people are thinking of voting for them I don't see why not, although the reason for them being on 10% is a bit dubious

An hour of Natalie Bennett and I think I will confidently call "Peak Hippy"

Reasons why Natalie Bennett will do well in the debates.

1/ She's a woman and not part of the old boy system. She's not a Maggie Thatcher who could have been a man in woman's clothes, politically speaking.

2/ She's a woman and females will say "here's somebody to represent me."

3/ She's a woman without much in the way of charisma and struggles to give an answer, and people will say she seems like a genuine person and doesn't look or sound like a slick snake-oil salesman politician.

4/ She's a woman leading a party that is concerned with issues that matter to millions of people who feel they are not represented such as greater social equality and opportunity, living wages for all and the environment.

5/ She's a woman who will get less screen time than the men, and people will think that is unfair and male chauvinist.

Seems like you think you've hit on something

Wonder why every party doesn't just appoint a characterless, female leader?

Maybe we can get a black person to represent the black people, and an Asian in to speak for the Asians?

What about gay people though? So underrepresented!

I want someone from Essex, right footed with brown hair else I will feel left out

Any negatives you can think of (for Bennett, not women leaders generally)

Reminds me of that Yes, Minister episode where they are searching for the perfect candidate to head a Quango.

Socrates said:

I don't really see the issue, to be honest. It'll piss off SNP types, but they weren't ever going to vote UKIP anyway.

Recent poll put Scotland on 37/42 Yes/No on should the UK leave the EU. SNP voters were in favour of leaving the EU by 42/38.

http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F6581wings.pdf

RodCrosby said:

Edwardian said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

MikeL said:

Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.

Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc

More the merrier in the debates tho eh ?

If 10% ish of people are thinking of voting for them I don't see why not, although the reason for them being on 10% is a bit dubious

An hour of Natalie Bennett and I think I will confidently call "Peak Hippy"

Reasons why Natalie Bennett will do well in the debates.

1/ She's a woman and not part of the old boy system. She's not a Maggie Thatcher who could have been a man in woman's clothes, politically speaking.

2/ She's a woman and females will say "here's somebody to represent me."

3/ She's a woman without much in the way of charisma and struggles to give an answer, and people will say she seems like a genuine person and doesn't look or sound like a slick snake-oil salesman politician.

4/ She's a woman leading a party that is concerned with issues that matter to millions of people who feel they are not represented such as greater social equality and opportunity, living wages for all and the environment.

5/ She's a woman who will get less screen time than the men, and people will think that is unfair and male chauvinist.

So she's a woman, right? (your point repeated five times)

But she's also fecking Australian, and as boring as a blowfly on the barbie...

And, ironically enough given a certain user's handle, wants to take us back to Edwarian standards of living.

dr_spyn said:

what a surprise.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30908938

Chilcott not to be served until post May election.

We need a judge led inquiry into this delay

RodCrosby said:

Edwardian said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

MikeL said:

Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.

Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc

More the merrier in the debates tho eh ?

If 10% ish of people are thinking of voting for them I don't see why not, although the reason for them being on 10% is a bit dubious

An hour of Natalie Bennett and I think I will confidently call "Peak Hippy"

Reasons why Natalie Bennett will do well in the debates.

1/ She's a woman and not part of the old boy system. She's not a Maggie Thatcher who could have been a man in woman's clothes, politically speaking.

2/ She's a woman and females will say "here's somebody to represent me."

3/ She's a woman without much in the way of charisma and struggles to give an answer, and people will say she seems like a genuine person and doesn't look or sound like a slick snake-oil salesman politician.

4/ She's a woman leading a party that is concerned with issues that matter to millions of people who feel they are not represented such as greater social equality and opportunity, living wages for all and the environment.

5/ She's a woman who will get less screen time than the men, and people will think that is unfair and male chauvinist.

So she's a woman, right? (your point repeated five times)

But she's also fecking Australian, and as boring as a blowfly on the barbie...

But a previous female Australian politician with a grating voice and lugubrious manner went viral:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWY_s8yIRfo

I'm expecting a Bennett-asm. (And Farage has the most to fear - his glassy-eyed golf-club sauntering could be most easily pricked.)

Pulpstar said:

Rotherham:

William Hills 9-2 UKIP
Ladbrokes 1-4 Labour

9/2 must be taken

Some pre-YouGov charts to ease the nerves...

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/557645209253969921
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/557651631580667905
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/557656934237892608

Pulpstar said:

When did the Yougov become 10:30 ? Thought it was 10 !

For about three months.

numbercruncher said:

Express have a poll out saying 80% want to leave the EU... Presumably this is a self-select (voodoo) poll?

Is there a poll on how many people want the Daily Express to emigrate?

Is the Sun Page 3 just going to feature polls now?

YouGov

Con 32, Lab 30, LD 8, UKIP 15, Greens 10

Lab 5 year low, Green all time high

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

NickPalmer said:

numbercruncher said:

Express have a poll out saying 80% want to leave the EU... Presumably this is a self-select (voodoo) poll?

Is there a poll on how many people want the Daily Express to emigrate?

Are you feeling the YouGov pressure Nick?

Hello Ave It!

And are you feeling the FTSE 8,000 prediction pressure?!

Enjoying the Oil share falls recently!

I don't understand it - when the FTSE goes up, my ISA goes down! And vice versas!

Unlike Crewe which always goes down!!!

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov

Con 32, Lab 30, LD 8, UKIP 15, Greens 10

Lab 5 year low, Green all time high

I almost feel like cheering that. Then I thought.. Tories on 32%? It's basically been like that for the best part of 20 years.

What funny times we live in. Goodnight all. Early start tomorrow.

Would it be cruel to remind all those mostly Kippers, who said Dave was frit/cowardly/scared of Farage when he said he wanted the Greens in the debate.

He's a brilliant politician, bitches.

CON - 32% (-) LAB - 30% (-2) UKIP - 15% (-) GRN - 10% (+3) LDEM - 8% (-)

Interesting. A bit sceptical that it will affect marginals, though it does strengthen the case for including them in a debate.

Ave_it said:

Come on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

YouGov!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lab =

Ed Miliband = Neil Kinnock

CON GAIN Glasgow North.

Nick Palmer to become errand runner for Peter Bone's wife.

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov

Con 32, Lab 30, LD 8, UKIP 15, Greens 10

Lab 5 year low, Green all time high

I would settle for that in May.. both the big two with no mandate

Perhaps what our democracy needs is for both big parties to have a significant challenge to their natural support to keep them honest