politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The evening thread – Marf on Democracy Day

System · January 2015

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The evening thread – Marf on Democracy Day

Marf on Democracy day pic.twitter.com/coMtLMz6dY

foxinsoxuk · January 2015

First?

Danny565 · January 2015

surbiton said:

eek said:
Here's a strange one. Bishop Auckland's mayor has quit the Labour party and joined UKIP http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/11737120.Bishop_Auckland_s_Labour_mayor_defects_to_UKIP/
Why ?

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:

isam said:
Someone needs to tell Shadsy UKIP are going to get beat in Thurrock, he has shortened them to 4/7 today, shortest they've been

Green vote share market pulled! Was over under 4% with over 8/13
Apart from Clacton, Thanet S, Thurrock, G Yarmouth and Boston & Skegness which other seats do you think UKIP could win ?
Rochester & Strood, Plymouth Moor View, Grimsby, Dudley North, Dover, Rotherham, Rother Valley, Thanet North, Huntingdon, Folkestone, St. Austell, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, Camborne & Redruth.

Would you recommend getting on Gillingham & Rainham?

Scrapheap_as_was · January 2015

Danny565 said:

surbiton said:

eek said:
Here's a strange one. Bishop Auckland's mayor has quit the Labour party and joined UKIP http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/11737120.Bishop_Auckland_s_Labour_mayor_defects_to_UKIP/
Why ?

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:

isam said:
Someone needs to tell Shadsy UKIP are going to get beat in Thurrock, he has shortened them to 4/7 today, shortest they've been

Green vote share market pulled! Was over under 4% with over 8/13
Apart from Clacton, Thanet S, Thurrock, G Yarmouth and Boston & Skegness which other seats do you think UKIP could win ?
Rochester & Strood, Plymouth Moor View, Grimsby, Dudley North, Dover, Rotherham, Rother Valley, Thanet North, Huntingdon, Folkestone, St. Austell, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, Camborne & Redruth.
Would you recommend getting on Gillingham & Rainham?

there's hope for the TPD - one of the kippers thinks he's in with a chance!!

MP_SE · January 2015

Whats the opinion on Castle Point? Last I heard the independent councillors who before a number of defections had a majority and had promised to support UKIP in the GE.

peter_from_putney · January 2015

FPT at 8.00pm

peter_from_putney said:
Anyone care to give me odds of 6/4 that the Tories are ahead in tonight's YouGov poll? You pay me £30 if they are, I pay you £20 if they're behind. The bet is void if they are equal (in whole numbers). First reputable bettor to accept by 8.15pm secures. Settlement by electronic bank transfer within 72 hours.

Sorry, time's up guys.

Artist · January 2015

I think Tories will be ahead and Greens on 10%+ or something.

MikeL · January 2015

Greens were on 7 with YouGov last night so would have thought need to be on at least 9 to be noteworthy, and probably 10.

Hard to see what else could be noteworthy - maybe a Con lead but I certainly wouldn't predict that.

TGOHF · January 2015

Artist said:
I think Tories will be ahead and Greens on 10%+ or something.

Greens might be in 3rd place tonight.

Sean_F · January 2015

Danny565 said:

surbiton said:

eek said:
Here's a strange one. Bishop Auckland's mayor has quit the Labour party and joined UKIP http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/11737120.Bishop_Auckland_s_Labour_mayor_defects_to_UKIP/
Why ?

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:

isam said:
Someone needs to tell Shadsy UKIP are going to get beat in Thurrock, he has shortened them to 4/7 today, shortest they've been

Green vote share market pulled! Was over under 4% with over 8/13
Apart from Clacton, Thanet S, Thurrock, G Yarmouth and Boston & Skegness which other seats do you think UKIP could win ?
Rochester & Strood, Plymouth Moor View, Grimsby, Dudley North, Dover, Rotherham, Rother Valley, Thanet North, Huntingdon, Folkestone, St. Austell, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, Camborne & Redruth.
Would you recommend getting on Gillingham & Rainham?

I think that's safe for the Tories.

MikeL · January 2015

Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.

Ishmael_X · January 2015

peter_from_putney said:
FPT at 8.00pm

peter_from_putney said:
Anyone care to give me odds of 6/4 that the Tories are ahead in tonight's YouGov poll? You pay me £30 if they are, I pay you £20 if they're behind. The bet is void if they are equal (in whole numbers). First reputable bettor to accept by 8.15pm secures. Settlement by electronic bank transfer within 72 hours.

Sorry, time's up guys.

Also fpt, I'll have 50% of that if no one else will and if I am reputable enough.

isam · January 2015

MP_SE said:
Whats the opinion on Castle Point? Last I heard the independent councillors who before a number of defections had a majority and had promised to support UKIP in the GE.

Big chance for UKIP there and will be lots of campaigning I think

isam · January 2015

MikeL said:
Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.

Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc

TGOHF · January 2015

isam said:

MikeL said:
Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.
Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc

More the merrier in the debates tho eh ?

chestnut · January 2015

Major party under 30 in Yougov?

peter_from_putney · January 2015

Ishmael_X said:

peter_from_putney said:
FPT at 8.00pm

peter_from_putney said:
Anyone care to give me odds of 6/4 that the Tories are ahead in tonight's YouGov poll? You pay me £30 if they are, I pay you £20 if they're behind. The bet is void if they are equal (in whole numbers). First reputable bettor to accept by 8.15pm secures. Settlement by electronic bank transfer within 72 hours.

Sorry, time's up guys.
Also fpt, I'll have 50% of that if no one else will and if I am reputable enough.

Go on then Ishmael, since you came through at 8.15pm, I'll take you on at half my originally proposed bet, i.e. my tenner vs your £15. Post back asap to confirm that you agree.

isam · January 2015

TGOHF said:

isam said:

MikeL said:
Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.
Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc
More the merrier in the debates tho eh ?

If 10% ish of people are thinking of voting for them I don't see why not, although the reason for them being on 10% is a bit dubious

An hour of Natalie Bennett and I think I will confidently call "Peak Hippy"

MP_SE · January 2015

isam said:

MP_SE said:
Whats the opinion on Castle Point? Last I heard the independent councillors who before a number of defections had a majority and had promised to support UKIP in the GE.
Big chance for UKIP there and will be lots of campaigning I think

Interesting, I will have to give it a look.

Hills annoyingly slassed their odds of UKIP getting 3-4 seats from 8.0 to 7.0. Managed to get close to £100 on there, short of my eventual target though...

I don't rate their chances in Rother Valley. Their polling in the PCC by-election was disappointing and I would have expected a high turnout for UKIP voters in light of the CSE scandel.

Ishmael_X · January 2015

peter_from_putney said:

Ishmael_X said:

peter_from_putney said:
FPT at 8.00pm

peter_from_putney said:
Anyone care to give me odds of 6/4 that the Tories are ahead in tonight's YouGov poll? You pay me £30 if they are, I pay you £20 if they're behind. The bet is void if they are equal (in whole numbers). First reputable bettor to accept by 8.15pm secures. Settlement by electronic bank transfer within 72 hours.

Sorry, time's up guys.
Also fpt, I'll have 50% of that if no one else will and if I am reputable enough.
Go on then Ishmael, since you came through at 8.15pm, I'll take you on at half my originally proposed bet, i.e. my tenner vs your £15. Post back asap to confirm that you agree.

agreed!

RobD · January 2015

Has there been a tweet suggesting YouGov has an interesting result tonight, or is this based off the Green's performance in the other polls recently?

TGOHF · January 2015

There are about 20 scenarios that would cause that tweet from TN-D - will just have to wait.

Could even refer to supplementaries not VI.

jayfdee · January 2015

Curse of the new thread,anyway totally off topic,I am off to see Queen and Adam Lambert in Manchester tomorrow,with my son,also a Queen fan.
A total sell out with tout tickets exchanging for £350.
Can't wait.

peter_from_putney · January 2015

Ishmael_X said:

peter_from_putney said:

Ishmael_X said:

peter_from_putney said:
FPT at 8.00pm

peter_from_putney said:
Anyone care to give me odds of 6/4 that the Tories are ahead in tonight's YouGov poll? You pay me £30 if they are, I pay you £20 if they're behind. The bet is void if they are equal (in whole numbers). First reputable bettor to accept by 8.15pm secures. Settlement by electronic bank transfer within 72 hours.

Sorry, time's up guys.
Also fpt, I'll have 50% of that if no one else will and if I am reputable enough.
Go on then Ishmael, since you came through at 8.15pm, I'll take you on at half my originally proposed bet, i.e. my tenner vs your £15. Post back asap to confirm that you agree.
agreed!

Thanks - we should know the result at around 10.30 pm!

tlg86 · January 2015

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

MikeL said:
Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.
Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc
More the merrier in the debates tho eh ?
If 10% ish of people are thinking of voting for them I don't see why not, although the reason for them being on 10% is a bit dubious

An hour of Natalie Bennett and I think I will confidently call "Peak Hippy"

It sort of depends on what comes up in the debates. I think last time the debates had three different themes, I'm not sure if that would be possible this time.

If Natalie Bennett gets to talk about austerity, tuition fees and evil capitalism then she may do quite well. But if the subjects of international affairs, immigration and energy policy come up she may not do so well.

I notice their website doesn't talk about the 'difficult' issues:

http://greenparty.org.uk/values/

isam · January 2015

MP_SE said:

isam said:

MP_SE said:
Whats the opinion on Castle Point? Last I heard the independent councillors who before a number of defections had a majority and had promised to support UKIP in the GE.
Big chance for UKIP there and will be lots of campaigning I think
Interesting, I will have to give it a look.

Hills annoyingly slassed their odds of UKIP getting 3-4 seats from 8.0 to 7.0. Managed to get close to £100 on there, short of my eventual target though...

I don't rate their chances in Rother Valley. Their polling in the PCC by-election was disappointing and I would have expected a high turnout for UKIP voters in light of the CSE scandel.

Hmmm I think there are quite a lot of people in Rotherham etc who have good reason to prefer the status quo!

If you go into the vanilla menu and search for "Stoke on Trent South" you should get a list of all the ones I worked out UKIP may have a chance in off the back of 2010 results

NickPalmer · January 2015

The wording of the tweet suggested interesting numbers for more than one party, which sounds like a rearrangement of the UKIP/Green/LD nexus. If the Greens get another good poll I think we should conclude they're genuinely making progress, but the usual "just one poll" will arise for most other potential surprises, since recent polls have been otherwise a bit dull.

Danny565 · January 2015

I bet the Sun are overselling this poll. It'll probably just be the Greens on 9% or something.

peter_from_putney · January 2015

RobD said:
Has there been a tweet suggesting YouGov has an interesting result tonight, or is this based off the Green's performance in the other polls recently?

Rob - you're getting me excited. After all, "Labour still ahead" wouldn't be very exciting would it, whereas "Tories surge into a three point lead" would be really something!

TGOHF · January 2015

Toenails tweets that Chilcott report postponed until after election. Pathetic.

isam · January 2015

tlg86 said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

MikeL said:
Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.
Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc
More the merrier in the debates tho eh ?
If 10% ish of people are thinking of voting for them I don't see why not, although the reason for them being on 10% is a bit dubious

An hour of Natalie Bennett and I think I will confidently call "Peak Hippy"
It sort of depends on what comes up in the debates. I think last time the debates had three different themes, I'm not sure if that would be possible this time.

If Natalie Bennett gets to talk about austerity, tuition fees and evil capitalism then she may do quite well. But if the subjects of international affairs, immigration and energy policy come up she may not do so well.

I notice their website doesn't talk about the 'difficult' issues:

http://greenparty.org.uk/values/

To be honest I don't mind the Greens... at least they are motivated by conviction rather than power for its own sake

Cyclefree · January 2015

TGOHF said:
Toenails tweets that Chilcott report postponed until after election. Pathetic.

Indeed.

Alistair · January 2015

If you bet flat stakes on SNP across Scotland you need the 35 shortest priced constituencies to come in to break even. That's all the way from Banff & Buchan through Fife into Edinburgh East & West, across to Glasgow North, Central East & South and finishing at East Kilbride or Cumbernauld.

Carnyx · January 2015

FPT

Theuniondivvie said:

Edin_Rokz said:

richardDodd said:
Why dont the SNP and the 45,ers just grow some balls and declare UDI ..It would stop all this whinging
Can't find microscopes powerful enough to find 'em, to remove them.

That's pretty rich from someone so scrotally challenged that they won't admit to being a SLab supporter. Come on man, have the courage of your (no doubt flexible) convictions.

Not least - and I am utterly serious here - because it would be a very substantial addition to the biodiversity, or twitch list, of the PB site. A vacuum needing to be filled.

RobD · January 2015

peter_from_putney said:

RobD said:
Has there been a tweet suggesting YouGov has an interesting result tonight, or is this based off the Green's performance in the other polls recently?
Rob - you're getting me excited. After all, "Labour still ahead" wouldn't be very exciting would it, whereas "Tories surge into a three point lead" would be really something!

Just trying to keep you off balance so I can grab that precious 'first'!

TGOHF · January 2015

Fair play to this Kipper - some cracking comments. -spot on...

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scots-ukip-mep-david-coburn-5011809

“If we had all voted Yes, Scotland would have its begging bowl out to England,” said Coburn.

“I am a proud Scot and the last thing I want to see is my country with a begging bowl out to anybody because of a bunch of economic numpties who don’t know anything about finance.

“Nobody can base an economy on a commodity price, it is insanity.

“And if it had happened - if Scotland had voted Yes - they’d be hanging Salmond and Helmet Hairdo and all her silly friends.

“They’d be stringing them up from lampposts in Charlotte Square by now.”

TheScreamingEagles · January 2015

David Coburn is the gift that keeps on giving

SCOTLAND'S only UKIP politician has sparked fury by claiming Alex Salmond would be “hanging from a lamppost” if there had been a vote for independence.

MEP David Coburn said the falling oil price would have crashed a go-it-alone Scotland’s economy and predicted the public would have taken violent reprisals against Salmond and his successor as First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon.

In an incendiary interview he also branded the SNP a “racist party”, revealed UKIP would drop the Smith Commission plans for more Holyrood powers and repeatedly referred to Sturgeon as “Helmet Hairdo”.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scots-ukip-mep-david-coburn-5011809

Socrates · January 2015

isam said:

MikeL said:
Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.
Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc

If the Greens get included in the third debate based on polling, then UKIP should get into the second debate based on polling.

Carnyx · January 2015

TGOHF said:
Fair play to this Kipper - some cracking comments. -spot on...

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scots-ukip-mep-david-coburn-5011809

“If we had all voted Yes, Scotland would have its begging bowl out to England,” said Coburn.

“I am a proud Scot and the last thing I want to see is my country with a begging bowl out to anybody because of a bunch of economic numpties who don’t know anything about finance.

“Nobody can base an economy on a commodity price, it is insanity.

“And if it had happened - if Scotland had voted Yes - they’d be hanging Salmond and Helmet Hairdo and all her silly friends.

“They’d be stringing them up from lampposts in Charlotte Square by now.”

Coburn also denied allegations UKIP are racist and claimed that description was more accurate about the SNP.

“They just hate the English,” he said. “They loathe the English, they are racist and anti-English.”

And he also attacked the recommendations of the cross party Smith Commission on a new devolution settlement for Scotland.

“It forms the same purpose that I use Alex Salmond’s Neverendum manifesto, the White Paper,” he said.

“Shred it. Stick it on a nail on the back of the privy door, that’s all it’s fit for.”

Rather like his boss, then. When a Labour activist and an English student frightened Mr Farage into an Edinburgh pub (what a terrible fate), he blamed it all on Mr Salmond.

TheScreamingEagles · January 2015

I wonder if this will be leaked before the election

Chilcot report on Iraq war delayed until after general election

Outcry at yet another postponement to findings of inquiry, which stopped taking evidence in 2011

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/20/chilcot-report-iraq-war-delayed-general-election

Socrates · January 2015

TheScreamingEagles said:
David Coburn is the gift that keeps on giving

SCOTLAND'S only UKIP politician has sparked fury by claiming Alex Salmond would be “hanging from a lamppost” if there had been a vote for independence.

MEP David Coburn said the falling oil price would have crashed a go-it-alone Scotland’s economy and predicted the public would have taken violent reprisals against Salmond and his successor as First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon.

In an incendiary interview he also branded the SNP a “racist party”, revealed UKIP would drop the Smith Commission plans for more Holyrood powers and repeatedly referred to Sturgeon as “Helmet Hairdo”.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scots-ukip-mep-david-coburn-5011809

I don't really see the issue, to be honest. It'll piss off SNP types, but they weren't ever going to vote UKIP anyway.

Anorak · January 2015

Socrates said:

isam said:

MikeL said:
Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.
Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc
If the Greens get included in the third debate based on polling, then UKIP should get into the second debate based on polling.

Because...?

Cyclefree · January 2015

TheScreamingEagles said:
I wonder if this will be leaked before the election

Chilcot report on Iraq war delayed until after general election

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/20/chilcot-report-iraq-war-delayed-general-election

I hope so!

TheScreamingEagles · January 2015

Looking at Tom Newton Dunn's tweet, for it to be the Greens in third place, it would need a swing greater than 4% from UKIP to Greens.

Possible, but unlikely.

One of the big two have broken away with a significant lead?

Possible.

TGOHF · January 2015

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I wonder if this will be leaked before the election

Chilcot report on Iraq war delayed until after general election

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/20/chilcot-report-iraq-war-delayed-general-election
I hope so!

Seems to be a lawyer issue that is the delay..

Scrapheap_as_was · January 2015

Danny565 said:
I bet the Sun are overselling this poll. It'll probably just be the Greens on 9% or something.

Perhaps a pair of tits have polled 5%?

Pulpstar · January 2015

isam said:

MP_SE said:

isam said:

MP_SE said:
Whats the opinion on Castle Point? Last I heard the independent councillors who before a number of defections had a majority and had promised to support UKIP in the GE.
Big chance for UKIP there and will be lots of campaigning I think
Interesting, I will have to give it a look.

Hills annoyingly slassed their odds of UKIP getting 3-4 seats from 8.0 to 7.0. Managed to get close to £100 on there, short of my eventual target though...

I don't rate their chances in Rother Valley. Their polling in the PCC by-election was disappointing and I would have expected a high turnout for UKIP voters in light of the CSE scandel.
Hmmm I think there are quite a lot of people in Rotherham etc who have good reason to prefer the status quo!

If you go into the vanilla menu and search for "Stoke on Trent South" you should get a list of all the ones I worked out UKIP may have a chance in off the back of 2010 results

UKIP "won" the local elections there by vote share in the constituencies that make up the constituency. They also came very very close in the SYPC by-election, and 2nd preferences would have been very interesting... but Labour's utterly stonking result in fortress Sheffield made sure those weren't counted.

UKIP were ahead on the first question of Lord Ashcroft's poll, but Labour have a 6 point gap on the second question. I think that my tip at 8-1 was an excellent price, and I'd price the constituency up as

1-4; 4-1 the pair Labour/UKIP

William Hill at this moment are 8-1 UKIP, and Ladbrokes 1-6 Labour - so there is free money available right now on this one.

Scrapheap_as_was · January 2015

And I'm not referring to Carswell and Reckless on this occasion.

Socrates · January 2015

Interesting approval numbers in the US from an NBC/WSJ poll:

Democrats: 35% approve, 38% disapprove
Republicans: 25% approve, 46% disapprove

That shows the challenge for the next Republican nominee, especially in states like Florida and Ohio, which have a Democrat lean and likely have over 50% disapproval for the Republicans.

Edwardian · January 2015

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

MikeL said:
Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.
Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc
More the merrier in the debates tho eh ?
If 10% ish of people are thinking of voting for them I don't see why not, although the reason for them being on 10% is a bit dubious

An hour of Natalie Bennett and I think I will confidently call "Peak Hippy"

Reasons why Natalie Bennett will do well in the debates.

1/ She's a woman and not part of the old boy system. She's not a Maggie Thatcher who could have been a man in woman's clothes, politically speaking.

2/ She's a woman and females will say "here's somebody to represent me."

3/ She's a woman without much in the way of charisma and struggles to give an answer, and people will say she seems like a genuine person and doesn't look or sound like a slick snake-oil salesman politician.

4/ She's a woman leading a party that is concerned with issues that matter to millions of people who feel they are not represented such as greater social equality and opportunity, living wages for all and the environment.

5/ She's a woman who will get less screen time than the men, and people will think that is unfair and male chauvinist.

TheScreamingEagles · January 2015

Scrapheap_as_was said:
And I'm not referring to Carswell and Reckless on this occasion.

Martin Atkinson and his lino?

TGOHF · January 2015

@MarkUrban01: The Chilcot #Iraq report will not come before the election. I'm hearing the main reason is energetic lobbying fm the dozens facing criticism

isam · January 2015

Edwardian said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

MikeL said:
Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.
Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc
More the merrier in the debates tho eh ?
If 10% ish of people are thinking of voting for them I don't see why not, although the reason for them being on 10% is a bit dubious

An hour of Natalie Bennett and I think I will confidently call "Peak Hippy"
Reasons why Natalie Bennett will do well in the debates.

1/ She's a woman and not part of the old boy system. She's not a Maggie Thatcher who could have been a man in woman's clothes, politically speaking.

2/ She's a woman and females will say "here's somebody to represent me."

3/ She's a woman without much in the way of charisma and struggles to give an answer, and people will say she seems like a genuine person and doesn't look or sound like a slick snake-oil salesman politician.

4/ She's a woman leading a party that is concerned with issues that matter to millions of people who feel they are not represented such as greater social equality and opportunity, living wages for all and the environment.

5/ She's a woman who will get less screen time than the men, and people will think that is unfair and male chauvinist.

Seems like you think you've hit on something

Wonder why every party doesn't just appoint a characterless, female leader?

Maybe we can get a black person to represent the black people, and an Asian in to speak for the Asians?

What about gay people though? So underrepresented!

I want someone from Essex, right footed with brown hair else I will feel left out

Any negatives you can think of (for Bennett, not women leaders generally)

RobD · January 2015

isam said:

Edwardian said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

MikeL said:
Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.
Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc
More the merrier in the debates tho eh ?
If 10% ish of people are thinking of voting for them I don't see why not, although the reason for them being on 10% is a bit dubious

An hour of Natalie Bennett and I think I will confidently call "Peak Hippy"
Reasons why Natalie Bennett will do well in the debates.

1/ She's a woman and not part of the old boy system. She's not a Maggie Thatcher who could have been a man in woman's clothes, politically speaking.

2/ She's a woman and females will say "here's somebody to represent me."

3/ She's a woman without much in the way of charisma and struggles to give an answer, and people will say she seems like a genuine person and doesn't look or sound like a slick snake-oil salesman politician.

4/ She's a woman leading a party that is concerned with issues that matter to millions of people who feel they are not represented such as greater social equality and opportunity, living wages for all and the environment.

5/ She's a woman who will get less screen time than the men, and people will think that is unfair and male chauvinist.

Seems like you think you've hit on something

Wonder why every party doesn't just appoint a characterless, female leader?

Maybe we can get a black person to represent the black people, and an Asian in to speak for the Asians?

What about gay people though? So underrepresented!

I want someone from Essex, right footed with brown hair else I will feel left out

Any negatives you can think of (for Bennett, not women leaders generally)

Reminds me of that Yes, Minister episode where they are searching for the perfect candidate to head a Quango.

RodCrosby · January 2015

Edwardian said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

MikeL said:
Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.
Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc
More the merrier in the debates tho eh ?
If 10% ish of people are thinking of voting for them I don't see why not, although the reason for them being on 10% is a bit dubious

An hour of Natalie Bennett and I think I will confidently call "Peak Hippy"
Reasons why Natalie Bennett will do well in the debates.

1/ She's a woman and not part of the old boy system. She's not a Maggie Thatcher who could have been a man in woman's clothes, politically speaking.

2/ She's a woman and females will say "here's somebody to represent me."

3/ She's a woman without much in the way of charisma and struggles to give an answer, and people will say she seems like a genuine person and doesn't look or sound like a slick snake-oil salesman politician.

4/ She's a woman leading a party that is concerned with issues that matter to millions of people who feel they are not represented such as greater social equality and opportunity, living wages for all and the environment.

5/ She's a woman who will get less screen time than the men, and people will think that is unfair and male chauvinist.

So she's a woman, right? (your point repeated five times)

But she's also fecking Australian, and as boring as a blowfly on the barbie...

Alistair · January 2015

Socrates said:

I don't really see the issue, to be honest. It'll piss off SNP types, but they weren't ever going to vote UKIP anyway.

Recent poll put Scotland on 37/42 Yes/No on should the UK leave the EU. SNP voters were in favour of leaving the EU by 42/38.

http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F6581wings.pdf

Pulpstar · January 2015

Rotherham:

William Hills 9-2 UKIP
Ladbrokes 1-4 Labour

Anorak · January 2015

RodCrosby said:

Edwardian said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

MikeL said:
Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.
Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc
More the merrier in the debates tho eh ?
If 10% ish of people are thinking of voting for them I don't see why not, although the reason for them being on 10% is a bit dubious

An hour of Natalie Bennett and I think I will confidently call "Peak Hippy"
Reasons why Natalie Bennett will do well in the debates.

1/ She's a woman and not part of the old boy system. She's not a Maggie Thatcher who could have been a man in woman's clothes, politically speaking.

2/ She's a woman and females will say "here's somebody to represent me."

3/ She's a woman without much in the way of charisma and struggles to give an answer, and people will say she seems like a genuine person and doesn't look or sound like a slick snake-oil salesman politician.

4/ She's a woman leading a party that is concerned with issues that matter to millions of people who feel they are not represented such as greater social equality and opportunity, living wages for all and the environment.

5/ She's a woman who will get less screen time than the men, and people will think that is unfair and male chauvinist.

So she's a woman, right? (your point repeated five times)

But she's also fecking Australian, and as boring as a blowfly on the barbie...

And, ironically enough given a certain user's handle, wants to take us back to Edwarian standards of living.

dr_spyn · January 2015

what a surprise.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30908938

Chilcott not to be served until post May election.

TheScreamingEagles · January 2015

dr_spyn said:
what a surprise.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30908938

Chilcott not to be served until post May election.

We need a judge led inquiry into this delay

Pulpstar · January 2015

Under-round city here on the Yorkshire-Derbyshire UKIP-Labour battleground tonight !

Stark_Dawning · January 2015

RodCrosby said:

Edwardian said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

MikeL said:
Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.
Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc
More the merrier in the debates tho eh ?
If 10% ish of people are thinking of voting for them I don't see why not, although the reason for them being on 10% is a bit dubious

An hour of Natalie Bennett and I think I will confidently call "Peak Hippy"
Reasons why Natalie Bennett will do well in the debates.

1/ She's a woman and not part of the old boy system. She's not a Maggie Thatcher who could have been a man in woman's clothes, politically speaking.

2/ She's a woman and females will say "here's somebody to represent me."

3/ She's a woman without much in the way of charisma and struggles to give an answer, and people will say she seems like a genuine person and doesn't look or sound like a slick snake-oil salesman politician.

4/ She's a woman leading a party that is concerned with issues that matter to millions of people who feel they are not represented such as greater social equality and opportunity, living wages for all and the environment.

5/ She's a woman who will get less screen time than the men, and people will think that is unfair and male chauvinist.

So she's a woman, right? (your point repeated five times)

But she's also fecking Australian, and as boring as a blowfly on the barbie...

But a previous female Australian politician with a grating voice and lugubrious manner went viral:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWY_s8yIRfo

I'm expecting a Bennett-asm. (And Farage has the most to fear - his glassy-eyed golf-club sauntering could be most easily pricked.)

dr_spyn · January 2015

TheScreamingEagles said:

dr_spyn said:
what a surprise.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30908938

Chilcott not to be served until post May election.
We need a judge led inquiry into this delay

Ms C Booth might be available.

Ishmael_X · January 2015

Edwardian said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

MikeL said:
Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.
Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc
More the merrier in the debates tho eh ?
If 10% ish of people are thinking of voting for them I don't see why not, although the reason for them being on 10% is a bit dubious

An hour of Natalie Bennett and I think I will confidently call "Peak Hippy"
Reasons why Natalie Bennett will do well in the debates.

1/ She's a woman and not part of the old boy system. She's not a Maggie Thatcher who could have been a man in woman's clothes, politically speaking.

Sorry, but that is tired meaningless lefty bollocks. Not to mention it flies in the face of lefty orthodoxy which is that it is transphobic (or something) to question her right to self-identify as female.

In the same spirit, I am hoping that the left will declare that Obama is not really black now that we know that Dave is his main homie.

chestnut · January 2015

A party leader with an Australian accent is going to bomb in the UK.

RodCrosby · January 2015

RodCrosby said:

Edwardian said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

MikeL said:
Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.
Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc
More the merrier in the debates tho eh ?
If 10% ish of people are thinking of voting for them I don't see why not, although the reason for them being on 10% is a bit dubious

An hour of Natalie Bennett and I think I will confidently call "Peak Hippy"
Reasons why Natalie Bennett will do well in the debates.

1/ She's a woman and not part of the old boy system. She's not a Maggie Thatcher who could have been a man in woman's clothes, politically speaking.

2/ She's a woman and females will say "here's somebody to represent me."

3/ She's a woman without much in the way of charisma and struggles to give an answer, and people will say she seems like a genuine person and doesn't look or sound like a slick snake-oil salesman politician.

4/ She's a woman leading a party that is concerned with issues that matter to millions of people who feel they are not represented such as greater social equality and opportunity, living wages for all and the environment.

5/ She's a woman who will get less screen time than the men, and people will think that is unfair and male chauvinist.

So she's a woman, right? (your point repeated five times)

But she's also fecking Australian, and as boring as a blowfly on the barbie...

Plus she "leads" a party of non-ministrable anarchists, who will be lucky to retain their single seat in parliament.

Next up George Galloway for the debates. At least he would be interesting...

TheScreamingEagles · January 2015

Stop dissing the Greens they might end up winning me at least £400 on election night

TheWatcher · January 2015

TGOHF said:
@MarkUrban01: The Chilcot #Iraq report will not come before the election. I'm hearing the main reason is energetic lobbying fm the dozens facing criticism

Let it leak out. Sunlight is the best disinfectant.

Pulpstar · January 2015

YOUGOV TIME

isam · January 2015

Pulpstar said:
Rotherham:

William Hills 9-2 UKIP
Ladbrokes 1-4 Labour

9/2 must be taken

Pulpstar · January 2015

When did the Yougov become 10:30 ? Thought it was 10 !

numbercruncher · January 2015

Some pre-YouGov charts to ease the nerves...

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/557645209253969921
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/557651631580667905
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/557656934237892608

Edwardian · January 2015

Ishmael_X said:

Edwardian said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

MikeL said:
Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.
Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc
More the merrier in the debates tho eh ?
If 10% ish of people are thinking of voting for them I don't see why not, although the reason for them being on 10% is a bit dubious

An hour of Natalie Bennett and I think I will confidently call "Peak Hippy"
Reasons why Natalie Bennett will do well in the debates.

1/ She's a woman and not part of the old boy system. She's not a Maggie Thatcher who could have been a man in woman's clothes, politically speaking.

Sorry, but that is tired meaningless lefty bollocks. Not to mention it flies in the face of lefty orthodoxy which is that it is transphobic (or something) to question her right to self-identify as female.

In the same spirit, I am hoping that the left will declare that Obama is not really black now that we know that Dave is his main homie.

If you don't think that a woman as a party leader who is not part of the elite will attract more female voters that is your right, but do you have to be so offensive?

TheScreamingEagles · January 2015

Pulpstar said:
When did the Yougov become 10:30 ? Thought it was 10 !

For about three months.

volcanopete · January 2015

The fault-lines that run through Ukip became more evident today with Farage's volte face on the NHS today and the sacking of the policy wonk without any policies.Carswell and Reckless must be wondering what sort of party they have joined.There remains the unpredictability of Farage as the factor which could initiate the inevitable implosion.

Ishmael_X · January 2015

Edwardian said:

Ishmael_X said:

Edwardian said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

MikeL said:
Looks like Greens have real momentum.

Worth noting that OFCOM decision re Major Party status is out to consultation - if Greens keep performing well over next few weeks then that is going to be fed back in the consultation and it is entirely possible OFCOM could then give the Greens Major Party status.
Would be extraordinary if anyone on here supported that as when UKIP were trying to use consistent double figure polling as a reason for major party status everyone said no chance/would be ridiculous etc
More the merrier in the debates tho eh ?
If 10% ish of people are thinking of voting for them I don't see why not, although the reason for them being on 10% is a bit dubious

An hour of Natalie Bennett and I think I will confidently call "Peak Hippy"
Reasons why Natalie Bennett will do well in the debates.

1/ She's a woman and not part of the old boy system. She's not a Maggie Thatcher who could have been a man in woman's clothes, politically speaking.

Sorry, but that is tired meaningless lefty bollocks. Not to mention it flies in the face of lefty orthodoxy which is that it is transphobic (or something) to question her right to self-identify as female.

In the same spirit, I am hoping that the left will declare that Obama is not really black now that we know that Dave is his main homie.
If you don't think that a woman as a party leader who is not part of the elite will attract more female voters that is your right, but do you have to be so offensive?

You said: "She's not a Maggie Thatcher who could have been a man in woman's clothes, politically speaking."

Which bit of "tired meaningless lefty bollocks" fails to apply to that statement? Is "tired meaningless lefty b*ll*cks" more acceptable?

numbercruncher · January 2015

Express have a poll out saying 80% want to leave the EU... Presumably this is a self-select (voodoo) poll?

NickPalmer · January 2015

numbercruncher said:
Express have a poll out saying 80% want to leave the EU... Presumably this is a self-select (voodoo) poll?

Is there a poll on how many people want the Daily Express to emigrate?

Ave_it · January 2015

NickPalmer said:

numbercruncher said:
Express have a poll out saying 80% want to leave the EU... Presumably this is a self-select (voodoo) poll?
Is there a poll on how many people want the Daily Express to emigrate?

Are you feeling the YouGov pressure Nick?

Ave_it · January 2015

Is the Sun Page 3 just going to feature polls now?

TheWatcher · January 2015

Ave_it said:
Is the Sun Page 3 just going to feature polls now?

Tomorrow's stunna is a pb stalwart, Jackeline W (104).

hunchman · January 2015

TGOHF said:
Toenails tweets that Chilcott report postponed until after election. Pathetic.

Absolutely - seems a rather convenient stitch up between the big two. And then they wonder why so many of us are determined to bring down the 2 party monopoly on the 7th May!

Casino_Royale · January 2015

Ave_it said:

NickPalmer said:

numbercruncher said:
Express have a poll out saying 80% want to leave the EU... Presumably this is a self-select (voodoo) poll?
Is there a poll on how many people want the Daily Express to emigrate?

Are you feeling the YouGov pressure Nick?

He prefers tantric opinion polling.

hunchman · January 2015

Ave_it said:

NickPalmer said:

numbercruncher said:
Express have a poll out saying 80% want to leave the EU... Presumably this is a self-select (voodoo) poll?
Is there a poll on how many people want the Daily Express to emigrate?

Are you feeling the YouGov pressure Nick?

Hello Ave It!

And are you feeling the FTSE 8,000 prediction pressure?!

NickPalmer · January 2015

lol, Casino. Just...curious.

TheScreamingEagles · January 2015

YouGov

Con 32, Lab 30, LD 8, UKIP 15, Greens 10

Lab 5 year low, Green all time high

Casino_Royale · January 2015

NickPalmer said:
lol, Casino. Just...curious.

You can unwrap your present on election night. Unless, well... things change ;-)

Ave_it · January 2015

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

NickPalmer said:

numbercruncher said:
Express have a poll out saying 80% want to leave the EU... Presumably this is a self-select (voodoo) poll?
Is there a poll on how many people want the Daily Express to emigrate?

Are you feeling the YouGov pressure Nick?
Hello Ave It!

And are you feeling the FTSE 8,000 prediction pressure?!

Enjoying the Oil share falls recently!

I don't understand it - when the FTSE goes up, my ISA goes down! And vice versas!

Unlike Crewe which always goes down!!!

MikeL · January 2015

Only one poll - keep calm everyone!

TheWatcher · January 2015

LD 8, Greens 10. There's a crossover to get excited about!

Ave_it · January 2015

Come on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

YouGov!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lab =

Casino_Royale · January 2015

TheScreamingEagles said:
YouGov

Con 32, Lab 30, LD 8, UKIP 15, Greens 10

Lab 5 year low, Green all time high

I almost feel like cheering that. Then I thought.. Tories on 32%? It's basically been like that for the best part of 20 years.

What funny times we live in. Goodnight all. Early start tomorrow.

compouter2 · January 2015

Yougov....new gold standard....until tomorrow when Labour go in front and then it moves on.

TheScreamingEagles · January 2015

Would it be cruel to remind all those mostly Kippers, who said Dave was frit/cowardly/scared of Farage when he said he wanted the Greens in the debate.

He's a brilliant politician, bitches.

Scrapheap_as_was · January 2015

TheScreamingEagles said:
YouGov

Con 32, Lab 30, LD 8, UKIP 15, Greens 10

Lab 5 year low, Green all time high

How long since a blue lead with YG?

NickPalmer · January 2015

CON - 32% (-) LAB - 30% (-2) UKIP - 15% (-) GRN - 10% (+3) LDEM - 8% (-)

Interesting. A bit sceptical that it will affect marginals, though it does strengthen the case for including them in a debate.

hunchman · January 2015

Ave_it said:

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

NickPalmer said:

numbercruncher said:
Express have a poll out saying 80% want to leave the EU... Presumably this is a self-select (voodoo) poll?
Is there a poll on how many people want the Daily Express to emigrate?

Are you feeling the YouGov pressure Nick?
Hello Ave It!

And are you feeling the FTSE 8,000 prediction pressure?!
Enjoying the Oil share falls recently!

I don't understand it - when the FTSE goes up, my ISA goes down! And vice versas!

Unlike Crewe which always goes down!!!

LOL - Crewe form improving until the blip against Notts County last weekend! Enjoyed Luke Murphy scoring for Leeds tonight, as I work next to a Bournemouth fan. Now remind me where Mr Murphy learnt his apprenticeship?!!

Are you sure your ISA hasn't morphed into a FTSE bear fund?! Ave it hoping for a FTSE crash - perish the thought!

Casino_Royale · January 2015

Ave_it said:
Come on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

YouGov!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lab =

Ed Miliband = Neil Kinnock

CON GAIN Glasgow North.

Nick Palmer to become errand runner for Peter Bone's wife.

MikeL · January 2015

Only one poll - may just be random movement - but one thing this most definitely will do is make it more likely the Greens get in the debates.

isam · January 2015

TheScreamingEagles said:
YouGov

Con 32, Lab 30, LD 8, UKIP 15, Greens 10

Lab 5 year low, Green all time high

I would settle for that in May.. both the big two with no mandate

Perhaps what our democracy needs is for both big parties to have a significant challenge to their natural support to keep them honest

TheScreamingEagles · January 2015

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
YouGov

Con 32, Lab 30, LD 8, UKIP 15, Greens 10

Lab 5 year low, Green all time high
How long since a blue lead with YG?

First con lead since December the 8th (I think)

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