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Reform, no joy just division. Will Lowe tear us apart? – politicalbetting.com

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  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,994
    edited May 14
    nico67 said:

    If rumours are correct it looks like the UK government are willing to provoke the “ Brexit betrayal “ tirades from the right wing press in an effort to give a boost to growth .

    And of course the OBR will factor in any easing of trade barriers with the EU to its forecasts so this could help Reeves .

    There are two appropriate ways to engage:

    1. To help make the rules, and to be bound by them.
    2. To not be involved in making the rules, and to not be bound by them.

    Dynamic alignment is not a brexit betrayal. It's a betrayal of democracy.

    Staying in the EEA, for example - a very soft brexit - is not betrayal of brexit. So it's not about soft or hard. It's about who governs and on whose authority.

    I hope that, if Starmer does sign up to this, he at least gets what the EEA gets - full technical involvement in the rulemaking comittees but no vote.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,239
    carnforth said:

    nico67 said:

    If rumours are correct it looks like the UK government are willing to provoke the “ Brexit betrayal “ tirades from the right wing press in an effort to give a boost to growth .

    And of course the OBR will factor in any easing of trade barriers with the EU to its forecasts so this could help Reeves .

    There are two appropriate ways to engage:

    1. To help make the rules, and to be bound by them.
    2. To not be involved in making the rules, and to not be bound by them.

    Dynamic alignment is not a brexit betrayal. It's a betrayal of democracy.

    Staying in the EEA, for example - a very soft brexit - is not betrayal of brexit. So it's not about soft or hard. It's about who governs and on whose authority.

    I hope that, if Starmer does sign up to this, he at least gets what the EEA gets - full technical involvement in the rulemaking comittees but no vote.
    Probably need FoM for that, (which I think would be great, but sadly not politically doable at the moment).
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,380
    carnforth said:

    nico67 said:

    If rumours are correct it looks like the UK government are willing to provoke the “ Brexit betrayal “ tirades from the right wing press in an effort to give a boost to growth .

    And of course the OBR will factor in any easing of trade barriers with the EU to its forecasts so this could help Reeves .

    There are two appropriate ways to engage:

    1. To help make the rules, and to be bound by them.
    2. To not be involved in making the rules, and to not be bound by them.

    Dynamic alignment is not a brexit betrayal. It's a betrayal of democracy.

    Staying in the EEA, for example - a very soft brexit - is not betrayal of brexit. So it's not about soft or hard. It's about who governs and on whose authority.

    I hope that, if Starmer does sign up to this, he at least gets what the EEA gets - full technical involvement in the rulemaking comittees but no vote.
    The argument against dynamic alignment by the Brexiteers was it would stop the UK making trade deals . Given the India deal this negates that argument somewhat . It’s not clear whether DA would be just for agriculture and fisheries or on goods aswell.

    I don’t think the public really care much for the minutiae of trade in terms of DA .

    Reeves is desperate for growth and the quickest route to increasing that is with the EU . Nothing else even comes close .
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,994
    CatMan said:

    carnforth said:

    nico67 said:

    If rumours are correct it looks like the UK government are willing to provoke the “ Brexit betrayal “ tirades from the right wing press in an effort to give a boost to growth .

    And of course the OBR will factor in any easing of trade barriers with the EU to its forecasts so this could help Reeves .

    There are two appropriate ways to engage:

    1. To help make the rules, and to be bound by them.
    2. To not be involved in making the rules, and to not be bound by them.

    Dynamic alignment is not a brexit betrayal. It's a betrayal of democracy.

    Staying in the EEA, for example - a very soft brexit - is not betrayal of brexit. So it's not about soft or hard. It's about who governs and on whose authority.

    I hope that, if Starmer does sign up to this, he at least gets what the EEA gets - full technical involvement in the rulemaking comittees but no vote.
    Probably need FoM for that, (which I think would be great, but sadly not politically doable at the moment).
    Yes, I have no idea if it's technically feasible. The EU has a difficulty in these negotiations in that, sometimes, they simply can't agree to things because of pre-existing treaties or legal structures. We are not so encumbered, because parliament can simply pass what is required.

    Sometimes, of course, the EU pretends it can't do something when it means it simply doesn't want to. But that's a slightly separate issue.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,994
    nico67 said:

    carnforth said:

    nico67 said:

    If rumours are correct it looks like the UK government are willing to provoke the “ Brexit betrayal “ tirades from the right wing press in an effort to give a boost to growth .

    And of course the OBR will factor in any easing of trade barriers with the EU to its forecasts so this could help Reeves .

    There are two appropriate ways to engage:

    1. To help make the rules, and to be bound by them.
    2. To not be involved in making the rules, and to not be bound by them.

    Dynamic alignment is not a brexit betrayal. It's a betrayal of democracy.

    Staying in the EEA, for example - a very soft brexit - is not betrayal of brexit. So it's not about soft or hard. It's about who governs and on whose authority.

    I hope that, if Starmer does sign up to this, he at least gets what the EEA gets - full technical involvement in the rulemaking comittees but no vote.
    The argument against dynamic alignment by the Brexiteers was it would stop the UK making trade deals . Given the India deal this negates that argument somewhat . It’s not clear whether DA would be just for agriculture and fisheries or on goods aswell.

    I don’t think the public really care much for the minutiae of trade in terms of DA .

    Reeves is desperate for growth and the quickest route to increasing that is with the EU . Nothing else even comes close .
    The public may not care; but they should.

    I suspect the trade deal angle is a little overblown: these countries also trade with the EU after all.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,994
    nico67 said:

    carnforth said:

    nico67 said:

    If rumours are correct it looks like the UK government are willing to provoke the “ Brexit betrayal “ tirades from the right wing press in an effort to give a boost to growth .

    And of course the OBR will factor in any easing of trade barriers with the EU to its forecasts so this could help Reeves .

    There are two appropriate ways to engage:

    1. To help make the rules, and to be bound by them.
    2. To not be involved in making the rules, and to not be bound by them.

    Dynamic alignment is not a brexit betrayal. It's a betrayal of democracy.

    Staying in the EEA, for example - a very soft brexit - is not betrayal of brexit. So it's not about soft or hard. It's about who governs and on whose authority.

    I hope that, if Starmer does sign up to this, he at least gets what the EEA gets - full technical involvement in the rulemaking comittees but no vote.
    The argument against dynamic alignment by the Brexiteers was it would stop the UK making trade deals . Given the India deal this negates that argument somewhat . It’s not clear whether DA would be just for agriculture and fisheries or on goods aswell.

    I don’t think the public really care much for the minutiae of trade in terms of DA .

    Reeves is desperate for growth and the quickest route to increasing that is with the EU . Nothing else even comes close .
    We are predicted to be the fastest growing european G7 member for each of the next five years. Granted, the predictions are for pretty anaemic growth, so I take your point.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,886
    "Britain | Bagehot
    A world without Nigel Farage
    British politics hinges on one man’s survival" (£)

    https://www.economist.com/britain/2025/05/14/a-world-without-nigel-farage
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,805
    Andy_JS said:

    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    Emilia Romagna to Flaine. What’s interesting is there are no direct flights I can see to Geneva from any nearby airports. Flaine is only just over an hour from Geneva. So you either fly somewhere further, like Lyon as @rcs1000 says, or drive.

    I’d hire a car and go all the way to Flaine and park. The prices would be way lower even in you don’t use your car for the week (we always use our car when skiing, for little afternoon trips out). If not, drop off the car at Chamonix or Sallanches. But that probably costs more.

    Public transport is complicated but you could go to Milan, then Chambery, then get a taxi from there or Annecy.

    Or book a ski holiday in Cortina and have a nice shortish taxi ride.

    The ski holiday was almost certainly booked before Mr Lammy discovered he would be in Bologna. Otherwise Cortina or Cervinia would make much more sense.
    Yes I assume so.

    But I love these travel logistics challenges. It’s like race across the world (on in 15 minutes).

    Always more fun attempting public transport in these situations. London to Amsterdam is an example: boring flight to Schiphol, or the train to Brussels and change, or for the really adventurous get the Harwich ferry?

    EDIT: or by the time I next need to go to Amsterdam in June I might have a new EV, so perhaps I should make it a road trip via Calais.

    My son is somehow getting to our house outside Cluny next month with his friends on public transport that I didn’t even realise existed. There’s a bus you have to ring up to book.
    I travelled to Lisbon by train a few years ago, even though it was a lot more awkward than flying.
    Surely that depends on where you start from.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,886
    edited 12:29AM
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    Emilia Romagna to Flaine. What’s interesting is there are no direct flights I can see to Geneva from any nearby airports. Flaine is only just over an hour from Geneva. So you either fly somewhere further, like Lyon as @rcs1000 says, or drive.

    I’d hire a car and go all the way to Flaine and park. The prices would be way lower even in you don’t use your car for the week (we always use our car when skiing, for little afternoon trips out). If not, drop off the car at Chamonix or Sallanches. But that probably costs more.

    Public transport is complicated but you could go to Milan, then Chambery, then get a taxi from there or Annecy.

    Or book a ski holiday in Cortina and have a nice shortish taxi ride.

    The ski holiday was almost certainly booked before Mr Lammy discovered he would be in Bologna. Otherwise Cortina or Cervinia would make much more sense.
    Yes I assume so.

    But I love these travel logistics challenges. It’s like race across the world (on in 15 minutes).

    Always more fun attempting public transport in these situations. London to Amsterdam is an example: boring flight to Schiphol, or the train to Brussels and change, or for the really adventurous get the Harwich ferry?

    EDIT: or by the time I next need to go to Amsterdam in June I might have a new EV, so perhaps I should make it a road trip via Calais.

    My son is somehow getting to our house outside Cluny next month with his friends on public transport that I didn’t even realise existed. There’s a bus you have to ring up to book.
    I travelled to Lisbon by train a few years ago, even though it was a lot more awkward than flying.
    Surely that depends on where you start from.
    Central England. True, the journey from there to London is sometimes unbearable, lol.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,543
    edited 1:27AM
    fitalass said:

    Nigelb said:

    Ridiculous failure.

    https://x.com/s8mb/status/1922732865650831769
    The HS2 line between Birmingham and Old Oak Common in outer London will now cost £126bn and be finished in 2039.

    Doesn’t include the trains, the Euston bit, or any of the other bits to Manchester, Crewe or Leeds, which it was once said would cost well below £100bn put together.

    Why is the UK so utterly hopeless when it comes to rail infrastructure projects or providing a fast and efficient reasonable priced rail service for travellers compared to other countries?
    The same reason we fail catastrophically to build enough housing and can't generate sustainable economic growth - we have by far the worst national planning system in the developed world (though some American localities come close), one deliberately designed to stifle development.

    And a craven embarrassment of a political class that knows exactly what needs to be done, but is far too spineless to do it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,556
    edited 3:41AM
    I spend thousands on tutors for my child - it's still cheaper than private school

    Private tutoring is booming, with parents paying out to ensure their children thrive in squeezed state schools - but is it lowering their resilience?

    A recent survey from the educational charity Sutton Trust found that 21 per cent of GCSE pupils are having additional private tutoring, compared to just 10 per cent a decade ago.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/spend-thousands-tutors-child-cheaper-private-school-3666918
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,971
    edited 4:08AM

    I spend thousands on tutors for my child - it's still cheaper than private school

    Private tutoring is booming, with parents paying out to ensure their children thrive in squeezed state schools - but is it lowering their resilience?

    A recent survey from the educational charity Sutton Trust found that 21 per cent of GCSE pupils are having additional private tutoring, compared to just 10 per cent a decade ago.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/spend-thousands-tutors-child-cheaper-private-school-3666918

    I was talking to a PhD student the other week and they do private tutoring to help supplement their stipend. There is so much demand for their services they could literally tutor morning, noon and night, 7 days a week. They do have a 1st class degree in Maths from Cambridge and doing a PhD in Maths so I presumed perhaps that might have meant their experience was an outlier, but perhaps not.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,556

    I spend thousands on tutors for my child - it's still cheaper than private school

    Private tutoring is booming, with parents paying out to ensure their children thrive in squeezed state schools - but is it lowering their resilience?

    A recent survey from the educational charity Sutton Trust found that 21 per cent of GCSE pupils are having additional private tutoring, compared to just 10 per cent a decade ago.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/spend-thousands-tutors-child-cheaper-private-school-3666918

    I was talking to a PhD student the other week and they do private tutoring to help supplement their stipend. There is so much demand for their services they could literally tutor morning, noon and night, 7 days a week. They do have a 1st class degree in Maths from Cambridge and doing a PhD in Maths so I presumed perhaps that might have meant their experience was an outlier, but perhaps not.
    Round here there are also, in former shops, several establishments offering small-group tutoring after school hours. Private education is no longer just private schools. But 21 per cent is higher than I'd have guessed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,273
    Musk’s AI Grok bot rants about ‘white genocide’ in South Africa in unrelated chats
    Chatbot goes on hours-long fritz, repeatedly mentioning ‘white genocide’, which it is ‘instructed to accept as real’
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/may/14/elon-musk-grok-white-genocide
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,510
    fitalass said:

    Nigelb said:

    Ridiculous failure.

    https://x.com/s8mb/status/1922732865650831769
    The HS2 line between Birmingham and Old Oak Common in outer London will now cost £126bn and be finished in 2039.

    Doesn’t include the trains, the Euston bit, or any of the other bits to Manchester, Crewe or Leeds, which it was once said would cost well below £100bn put together.

    Why is the UK so utterly hopeless when it comes to rail infrastructure projects or providing a fast and efficient reasonable priced rail service for travellers compared to other countries?
    We are not. There are many rail infrastructure projects - renewals and enhancements - that happen on budget and on time, with minimal disruption to the public. Perhaps because they are run by the railways, with minimal interference with the government or government departments. The slow and creeping project to electrify the MML is generally occurring with zero fanfare.

    Some large projects - HS2, the WCML Upgrade, the GWML electrification - have had significant difficulties. But others - for example both phases of HS1 - had much less so.

    As for price: it is complex and depends on journey type and when booked:
    https://www.seat61.com/uk-europe-train-fares-comparison.html
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,401
    edited 5:18AM

    a

    Nigelb said:

    Ridiculous failure.

    https://x.com/s8mb/status/1922732865650831769
    The HS2 line between Birmingham and Old Oak Common in outer London will now cost £126bn and be finished in 2039.

    Doesn’t include the trains, the Euston bit, or any of the other bits to Manchester, Crewe or Leeds, which it was once said would cost well below £100bn put together.

    For that money, we could build a reusable heavy lift rocket and have our own moon landings. Probably 5x over, if we don’t let BAe near it.
    Going to the moon, launching from Manchester and dropping back into the Thames, might be a quick way to make the journey?

    Google Maps yesterday, when I wanted to check the quickest route to a garden centre on the island that I haven’t used before, while sitting on the ferry heading to the island, came up with a route that involved going back to Portsmouth, getting the ferry to Santander, driving up through Spain and France, getting the Chunnel back to England and driving back to Portsmouth to get the ferry I was already on. And then driving to the garden centre. Altogether taking nearly two days of driving, plus the ferry time.

    Even though it was obviously confused by my being just offshore when I searched, how does a circular route that went through Portsmouth twice make any sort of sense?? (Edit; although having typed this, I realise that clearly it had decided I was already on the ferry to Santander). Maps is outstanding but sometimes it does the weirdest things!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,510

    Nigelb said:

    Ridiculous failure.

    https://x.com/s8mb/status/1922732865650831769
    The HS2 line between Birmingham and Old Oak Common in outer London will now cost £126bn and be finished in 2039.

    Doesn’t include the trains, the Euston bit, or any of the other bits to Manchester, Crewe or Leeds, which it was once said would cost well below £100bn put together.

    On a point of order, it's not accurate to place Old Oak Common in outer London, given it's in Acton and not far from Notting Hill.
    Old Oak Common is about three minutes by fast train out of Paddington. Why can they not extend HS2 into Paddington rather than cross London to Euston/ Kings Cross sometime in the 2070s?
    From memory in the feasibility reports, Paddington is too cramped, even compared to Euston. Euston did at least have the option to expand. But the whole HS2 into London thing is a bit of a mess, and could have done with some joined-up planning and thinking three decades ago.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,510
    So 'hardman' Putin is too scared to come to peace talks in Ankara.

    The rest of the world should see this as exactly how important Putin sees peace talks. As in, not at all important. Because he does not want peace on anything other than his own terms, and therefore talking about it is pointless. He'll talk after Ukraine capitulates.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,741

    I spend thousands on tutors for my child - it's still cheaper than private school

    Private tutoring is booming, with parents paying out to ensure their children thrive in squeezed state schools - but is it lowering their resilience?

    A recent survey from the educational charity Sutton Trust found that 21 per cent of GCSE pupils are having additional private tutoring, compared to just 10 per cent a decade ago.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/spend-thousands-tutors-child-cheaper-private-school-3666918

    I was talking to a PhD student the other week and they do private tutoring to help supplement their stipend. There is so much demand for their services they could literally tutor morning, noon and night, 7 days a week. They do have a 1st class degree in Maths from Cambridge and doing a PhD in Maths so I presumed perhaps that might have meant their experience was an outlier, but perhaps not.
    It's not an outlier. I'm charging three times what I charged four years ago and I'm still turning down work.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,510

    a

    Nigelb said:

    Ridiculous failure.

    https://x.com/s8mb/status/1922732865650831769
    The HS2 line between Birmingham and Old Oak Common in outer London will now cost £126bn and be finished in 2039.

    Doesn’t include the trains, the Euston bit, or any of the other bits to Manchester, Crewe or Leeds, which it was once said would cost well below £100bn put together.

    For that money, we could build a reusable heavy lift rocket and have our own moon landings. Probably 5x over, if we don’t let BAe near it.
    Before you can say that, we need SpaceX to build a working reusable heavy lift rocket and for the US to make their own moon landings. Because SpaceX have not yet made a reusable heavy lift rocket, and the US moon landings seem to be further away than ever. And until it's done, we cannot know the costs.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,401

    I spend thousands on tutors for my child - it's still cheaper than private school

    Private tutoring is booming, with parents paying out to ensure their children thrive in squeezed state schools - but is it lowering their resilience?

    A recent survey from the educational charity Sutton Trust found that 21 per cent of GCSE pupils are having additional private tutoring, compared to just 10 per cent a decade ago.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/spend-thousands-tutors-child-cheaper-private-school-3666918

    I was talking to a PhD student the other week and they do private tutoring to help supplement their stipend. There is so much demand for their services they could literally tutor morning, noon and night, 7 days a week. They do have a 1st class degree in Maths from Cambridge and doing a PhD in Maths so I presumed perhaps that might have meant their experience was an outlier, but perhaps not.
    Being a good teacher is presumably the more relevant skill than extremely high levels of qualification in maths? Otherwise a PhD is going to struggle to explain GSCE concepts to a school child.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,741
    edited 5:26AM
    IanB2 said:

    I spend thousands on tutors for my child - it's still cheaper than private school

    Private tutoring is booming, with parents paying out to ensure their children thrive in squeezed state schools - but is it lowering their resilience?

    A recent survey from the educational charity Sutton Trust found that 21 per cent of GCSE pupils are having additional private tutoring, compared to just 10 per cent a decade ago.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/spend-thousands-tutors-child-cheaper-private-school-3666918

    I was talking to a PhD student the other week and they do private tutoring to help supplement their stipend. There is so much demand for their services they could literally tutor morning, noon and night, 7 days a week. They do have a 1st class degree in Maths from Cambridge and doing a PhD in Maths so I presumed perhaps that might have meant their experience was an outlier, but perhaps not.
    Being a good teacher is presumably the more relevant skill than extremely high levels of qualification in maths? Otherwise a PhD is going to struggle to explain GSCE concepts to a school child.
    I think one to one that is less important, although patience would definitely be a virtue to cultivate.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,510
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    I spend thousands on tutors for my child - it's still cheaper than private school

    Private tutoring is booming, with parents paying out to ensure their children thrive in squeezed state schools - but is it lowering their resilience?

    A recent survey from the educational charity Sutton Trust found that 21 per cent of GCSE pupils are having additional private tutoring, compared to just 10 per cent a decade ago.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/spend-thousands-tutors-child-cheaper-private-school-3666918

    I was talking to a PhD student the other week and they do private tutoring to help supplement their stipend. There is so much demand for their services they could literally tutor morning, noon and night, 7 days a week. They do have a 1st class degree in Maths from Cambridge and doing a PhD in Maths so I presumed perhaps that might have meant their experience was an outlier, but perhaps not.
    Being a good teacher is presumably the more relevant skill than extremely high levels of qualification in maths? Otherwise a PhD is going to struggle to explain GSCE concepts to a school child.
    I think one to one that is less important, although patience would definitely be a virtue to cultivate.
    Teaching my son during Covid gave me a belated appreciation for what teachers do. Fortunately my son's a good kid, and is keen to learn, but even then it was hard enough. Teaching a class of thirty tired, hungry kids in hot weather must be difficult - and/or an art in itself.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,847

    So 'hardman' Putin is too scared to come to peace talks in Ankara.

    The rest of the world should see this as exactly how important Putin sees peace talks. As in, not at all important. Because he does not want peace on anything other than his own terms, and therefore talking about it is pointless. He'll talk after Ukraine capitulates.


    He'll talk after his hydrocarbon industry burns to the ground.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,847

    sarissa said:

    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    Emilia Romagna to Flaine. What’s interesting is there are no direct flights I can see to Geneva from any nearby airports. Flaine is only just over an hour from Geneva. So you either fly somewhere further, like Lyon as @rcs1000 says, or drive.

    I’d hire a car and go all the way to Flaine and park. The prices would be way lower even in you don’t use your car for the week (we always use our car when skiing, for little afternoon trips out). If not, drop off the car at Chamonix or Sallanches. But that probably costs more.

    Public transport is complicated but you could go to Milan, then Chambery, then get a taxi from there or Annecy.

    Or book a ski holiday in Cortina and have a nice shortish taxi ride.

    The ski holiday was almost certainly booked before Mr Lammy discovered he would be in Bologna. Otherwise Cortina or Cervinia would make much more sense.
    Yes I assume so.

    But I love these travel logistics challenges. It’s like race across the world (on in 15 minutes).

    Always more fun attempting public transport in these situations. London to Amsterdam is an example: boring flight to Schiphol, or the train to Brussels and change, or for the really adventurous get the Harwich ferry?

    EDIT: or by the time I next need to go to Amsterdam in June I might have a new EV, so perhaps I should make it a road trip via Calais.

    My son is somehow getting to our house outside Cluny next month with his friends on public transport that I didn’t even realise existed. There’s a bus you have to ring up to book.
    Here’s a train trip I’m planning just for the fun of it:


    Don't miss out Ragusa when you are in Sicily!
    Memories of a trip from Derby to Firenze as a student on Interrail. The bit from Newhven to Dieppe was on the same day that 5 sailors died, five boats sank, and at least 75 boats flipped upside down in the Fastnet race in 70 mph winds and 50 foot waves.

    A ferry full of spew...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,510

    So 'hardman' Putin is too scared to come to peace talks in Ankara.

    The rest of the world should see this as exactly how important Putin sees peace talks. As in, not at all important. Because he does not want peace on anything other than his own terms, and therefore talking about it is pointless. He'll talk after Ukraine capitulates.

    He'll talk after his hydrocarbon industry burns to the ground.
    It'd be nice to think that's true, but is it?

    Leaving aside the apparently decreased rate of hits against refineries et al, Putin has shown a massive capacity to let his people suffer for his war. If the economy slumps, why would he care? It is only his people suffering, after all, and their suffering is just a sign of their patriotism...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,847

    So 'hardman' Putin is too scared to come to peace talks in Ankara.

    The rest of the world should see this as exactly how important Putin sees peace talks. As in, not at all important. Because he does not want peace on anything other than his own terms, and therefore talking about it is pointless. He'll talk after Ukraine capitulates.

    He'll talk after his hydrocarbon industry burns to the ground.
    It'd be nice to think that's true, but is it?

    Leaving aside the apparently decreased rate of hits against refineries et al, Putin has shown a massive capacity to let his people suffer for his war. If the economy slumps, why would he care? It is only his people suffering, after all, and their suffering is just a sign of their patriotism...
    As the Ukrainians have been massively ramping up missile and drone capacity that can take out these facilities, there has to be some restraining hand put on Zelensky by the Americans ahead of talks. But they have been majoring on taking out Russian air defences. If they resume, there are going to be fewer defence assets to stop Ukraine burning that hydrocarbon industry to the ground.

    Opec plus has agreed to increased production. That will be able to pump to replace the lack of Russian production.

    Putin's war is funded by oil. End the Russian oil sales, end the war.
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