They got only 0.2% in the constituency in 2021 (same as overall Scottish Parliament votes), versus 41% for SNP, but since then the polls show Reform at 20% & SNP down from 48% to 33%.
Anyone know what the odds were on Provest beforehand?
Parolin surged in the betting after the white smoke was seen, presumably following the rationale given here.
Earlier today, the implied probabilities were...
Pietro Parolin: 30% Luis Antonio Tagle: 26% Pierbattista Pizzaballa: 10% Matteo Zuppi: 8% Peter Turkson: 6% Peter Erdo: 6% Jean-Marc Aveline: 4% Fridolin Ambongo: 2% Robert Sarah: 2% Robert Prevost: 2% Mario Grech: 2% Dominique Mamberti: 2% Pablo Virgilio David: 2%
LABOUR have been left red-faced after making a glaring error in their announcement hailing the new UK-US trade deal.
Not only did they describe the deal as good – despite the US continuing to impose hefty tariffs on swathes of the UK economy – but they also left brewers baffled by claiming it would be a boon for pubs.
The UK Government press release heralding news of the deal claimed: “We will also remove the tariff on ethanol – which is used to produce beer – coming into the UK from the US, down to zero.”
There’s just one problem there. Ethanol isn’t used to produce beer.
I had an easy day’s walk today, only about seventeen miles, to a town called Levalenet
It’s nowhere near as nice a town as Foix, but I’ve landed myself a really good apartment for the night. It’s HUGE
There are four big rooms; kitchen, lounge, bedroom and bathroom, and the hall is pretty large too
I was going to go out for dinner, but I want to spend the evening here. I’ve bought food to cook for dinner (smoked trout, salad onions, rocket and crême fraiche, to make a sauce to go with tagliatelle)
There’s a selection of wines in the apartment to but. I’ve left 10€ cash for a bottle of Chardonnay from Côtes de Prouilhe, which is about twenty miles away
LABOUR have been left red-faced after making a glaring error in their announcement hailing the new UK-US trade deal.
Not only did they describe the deal as good – despite the US continuing to impose hefty tariffs on swathes of the UK economy – but they also left brewers baffled by claiming it would be a boon for pubs.
The UK Government press release heralding news of the deal claimed: “We will also remove the tariff on ethanol – which is used to produce beer – coming into the UK from the US, down to zero.”
There’s just one problem there. Ethanol isn’t used to produce beer.
LABOUR have been left red-faced after making a glaring error in their announcement hailing the new UK-US trade deal.
Not only did they describe the deal as good – despite the US continuing to impose hefty tariffs on swathes of the UK economy – but they also left brewers baffled by claiming it would be a boon for pubs.
The UK Government press release heralding news of the deal claimed: “We will also remove the tariff on ethanol – which is used to produce beer – coming into the UK from the US, down to zero.”
There’s just one problem there. Ethanol isn’t used to produce beer.
LABOUR have been left red-faced after making a glaring error in their announcement hailing the new UK-US trade deal.
Not only did they describe the deal as good – despite the US continuing to impose hefty tariffs on swathes of the UK economy – but they also left brewers baffled by claiming it would be a boon for pubs.
The UK Government press release heralding news of the deal claimed: “We will also remove the tariff on ethanol – which is used to produce beer – coming into the UK from the US, down to zero.”
There’s just one problem there. Ethanol isn’t used to produce beer.
Ethanol is a feedstock for biofuels, and is mixed in with petrol to make it slightly greener*. But there is currently no tariff on ethanol imports to the UK. It's just that there isn't much demand in the UK to mix it with petrol.
* There is much debate over whether it actually is greener
LABOUR have been left red-faced after making a glaring error in their announcement hailing the new UK-US trade deal.
Not only did they describe the deal as good – despite the US continuing to impose hefty tariffs on swathes of the UK economy – but they also left brewers baffled by claiming it would be a boon for pubs.
The UK Government press release heralding news of the deal claimed: “We will also remove the tariff on ethanol – which is used to produce beer – coming into the UK from the US, down to zero.”
There’s just one problem there. Ethanol isn’t used to produce beer.
Starmer and Trump now Donald and Keir and certainly it seems a win for Starmer
The conservative and the right should welcome the deal and also maybe a lesson to Davey that sometimes crawling and pulling all the levers is the only way rather than antagonism
Surprised at you recommending 'crawling' Big_G.
Personally, I think we should have told Trump where to go but on balance I suspect Starmer is playing a much shrewder game than Trump.
Exciting to hear the Tories attacking the trade deal with Gilead as "we've just been shafted". The response from both industry and union bodies appears to be mostly positive, with key red lines protected.
Compare and contrast with the Tory AuzNZ deal which was so bad that news media there were openly laughing at us for giving so much away for such little in return.
We know what the Kemi mentality is. Unless the Tories did it, we get shafted. Nobody is listening any more Kemi!
If you read my posts I have been unusually complimentary of Starmer and the deal and contrasted his closeness to Trump with Davey's anti Trump rhetoric
Ironically it won't change my vote but it may actually help the Lib Dems as I expect the left are not at all impressed with Starmer’s relationship with Trump
As far as Kemi is concerned I am ambivalent towards her and the conservative party are not at the races at present
I see the Liberal Democrats as just a sort of holding gully for voters as they ebb away from Labour. I don't see them voting Lib Dem in the event, unless their policies change completely. What's the point in voting for something identical to Labour but with more larking about on logflumes? We will need solutions to growth, law and order, and immigration, and they don't have any.
Larking about on logflumes..😆 Pretty much nails everything about the unserious Lib Dem leadership..😏
They got only 0.2% in the constituency in 2021 (same as overall Scottish Parliament votes), versus 41% for SNP, but since then the polls show Reform at 20% & SNP down from 48% to 33%.
LABOUR have been left red-faced after making a glaring error in their announcement hailing the new UK-US trade deal.
Not only did they describe the deal as good – despite the US continuing to impose hefty tariffs on swathes of the UK economy – but they also left brewers baffled by claiming it would be a boon for pubs.
The UK Government press release heralding news of the deal claimed: “We will also remove the tariff on ethanol – which is used to produce beer – coming into the UK from the US, down to zero.”
There’s just one problem there. Ethanol isn’t used to produce beer.
LABOUR have been left red-faced after making a glaring error in their announcement hailing the new UK-US trade deal.
Not only did they describe the deal as good – despite the US continuing to impose hefty tariffs on swathes of the UK economy – but they also left brewers baffled by claiming it would be a boon for pubs.
The UK Government press release heralding news of the deal claimed: “We will also remove the tariff on ethanol – which is used to produce beer – coming into the UK from the US, down to zero.”
There’s just one problem there. Ethanol isn’t used to produce beer.
LABOUR have been left red-faced after making a glaring error in their announcement hailing the new UK-US trade deal.
Not only did they describe the deal as good – despite the US continuing to impose hefty tariffs on swathes of the UK economy – but they also left brewers baffled by claiming it would be a boon for pubs.
The UK Government press release heralding news of the deal claimed: “We will also remove the tariff on ethanol – which is used to produce beer – coming into the UK from the US, down to zero.”
There’s just one problem there. Ethanol isn’t used to produce beer.
LABOUR have been left red-faced after making a glaring error in their announcement hailing the new UK-US trade deal.
Not only did they describe the deal as good – despite the US continuing to impose hefty tariffs on swathes of the UK economy – but they also left brewers baffled by claiming it would be a boon for pubs.
The UK Government press release heralding news of the deal claimed: “We will also remove the tariff on ethanol – which is used to produce beer – coming into the UK from the US, down to zero.”
There’s just one problem there. Ethanol isn’t used to produce beer.
LABOUR have been left red-faced after making a glaring error in their announcement hailing the new UK-US trade deal.
Not only did they describe the deal as good – despite the US continuing to impose hefty tariffs on swathes of the UK economy – but they also left brewers baffled by claiming it would be a boon for pubs.
The UK Government press release heralding news of the deal claimed: “We will also remove the tariff on ethanol – which is used to produce beer – coming into the UK from the US, down to zero.”
There’s just one problem there. Ethanol isn’t used to produce beer.
New Pope has been fighting with Vance on Twitter. This is going to be fun. American Catholicism has got some insane people very loud in its numbers - they won’t be happy
Exciting to hear the Tories attacking the trade deal with Gilead as "we've just been shafted". The response from both industry and union bodies appears to be mostly positive, with key red lines protected.
Compare and contrast with the Tory AuzNZ deal which was so bad that news media there were openly laughing at us for giving so much away for such little in return.
We know what the Kemi mentality is. Unless the Tories did it, we get shafted. Nobody is listening any more Kemi!
If you read my posts I have been unusually complimentary of Starmer and the deal and contrasted his closeness to Trump with Davey's anti Trump rhetoric
Ironically it won't change my vote but it may actually help the Lib Dems as I expect the left are not at all impressed with Starmer’s relationship with Trump
As far as Kemi is concerned I am ambivalent towards her and the conservative party are not at the races at present
I see the Liberal Democrats as just a sort of holding gully for voters as they ebb away from Labour. I don't see them voting Lib Dem in the event, unless their policies change completely. What's the point in voting for something identical to Labour but with more larking about on logflumes? We will need solutions to growth, law and order, and immigration, and they don't have any.
Larking about on logflumes..😆 Pretty much nails everything about the unserious Lib Dem leadership..😏
I think you may be rather underestimating the Lib Dems, both as campaigners and as policy makers. Once they get elected, they are generally extremely difficult to defeat. The Tories are in very serious difficulty, and the Lib Dems are steadily rising at elections and in the polls. I think there is a fair chance that the Lib Dems will out poll the Tories at the Scottish Parliament elections, and that has serious repercussions if the Tories still have any hope of being a national party.
Yet the most fundamentally unserious party is RefUK- the paper councillors will cause them significant headaches in the coming months, so watch for defections and resignations in that quarter. Ed Davey is getting traction with his attacks on Farage as the Poundland Trump, so the idea that NF Nigel will get things all his own way is mostly in the drug addled brains of the right wing and fash-curious media types.
At what point do future prospects for the Tories look so bleak that some of them actually think “sod it, might as well try Boris”?
Leaving aside that Boris is a Busted Flush (even if he wasn't past it, even if he could finesse Liargate, Boriswave was a genius bit of negative marketing), BoJo would have to find a winnable seat at a by-election.
With the Conservatives heading for half the Reform score, that's not going to happen.
Apparently the new Pope is registered as a Republican.
Could I have a source for that, because according to the Washington Post, Catholic Church policy is for senior clergy not to register political affiliation.
WRT tactical voting, in most Labour-held seats, there’s not much of a Lib Dem vote left to squeeze. Labour and Lib Dem supporters sorted themselves out to defeat Conservatives incumbents.
There is frequently quite a big Tory vote left to squeeze, but that’s more likely to go Reform, rather than Labour. But, I guess most Green voters would go over to Labour.
If we started the election campaign with these numbers, I expect we’d end with something like:
Reform 39% Labour 32% Lib Dem 12% Conservative 10% Green 3%
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
That's the thing, isn't it?
The Conservatives shat the bed on immigration, but Reform (and Farage in particular) are in the pockets of Putin and Trump - both of which are clear and present dangers to the world.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
That's the thing, isn't it?
The Conservatives shat the bed on immigration, but Reform (and Farage in particular) are in the pockets of Putin and Trump - both of which are clear and present dangers to the world.
Utter tripe.
And to prove that they're not in the pockets of Putin we turn to the founder and President of the PB Putinist Fan Club.
Apparently the new Pope is registered as a Republican.
Could I have a source for that, because according to the Washington Post, Catholic Church policy is for senior clergy not to register political affiliation.
LABOUR have been left red-faced after making a glaring error in their announcement hailing the new UK-US trade deal.
Not only did they describe the deal as good – despite the US continuing to impose hefty tariffs on swathes of the UK economy – but they also left brewers baffled by claiming it would be a boon for pubs.
The UK Government press release heralding news of the deal claimed: “We will also remove the tariff on ethanol – which is used to produce beer – coming into the UK from the US, down to zero.”
There’s just one problem there. Ethanol isn’t used to produce beer.
Ethanol is a feedstock for biofuels, and is mixed in with petrol to make it slightly greener*. But there is currently no tariff on ethanol imports to the UK. It's just that there isn't much demand in the UK to mix it with petrol.
* There is much debate over whether it actually is greener
When Trump said it, we just presumed liar / poorly briefed, but the UK government repeated both it was tariffed and used to make beer. Are you sure you are correct on the tariff front, because the UK government seem convinced there was and they set them? Or are the UK government officials double morons?
So, Kemi is straight on Twitter on the US deal saying "We've been shafted!" She really is not a wise leader, with this propensity to reach a wholly negative, knee-jerk instantaneous judgement on anything that the government does, without giving herself time to digest the detail and think through the ramifications. If I were one of the handful of remaining Tories, I'd want rid of her.
So, Kemi is straight on Twitter on the US deal saying "We've been shafted!" She really is not a wise leader, with this propensity to reach a wholly negative, knee-jerk instantaneous judgement on anything that the government does, without giving herself time to digest the detail and think through the ramifications. If I were one of the handful of remaining Tories, I'd want rid of her.
I think she needs to put the twatter machine down and wait to see what picture emerges on any story. That is the luxury you have of being opposition, you can take your time to respond. You won't have Beth Rigby shouting at you to say something from the sidelines in Downing Street every minute of every day.
The reality is not everything has been agreed yet and what has been is quite small beer (with added tariff free ethanol) ;-)
Starmer and Trump now Donald and Keir and certainly it seems a win for Starmer
The conservative and the right should welcome the deal and also maybe a lesson to Davey that sometimes crawling and pulling all the levers is the only way rather than antagonism
Surprised at you recommending 'crawling' Big_G.
Personally, I think we should have told Trump where to go but on balance I suspect Starmer is playing a much shrewder game than Trump.
So, Kemi is straight on Twitter on the US deal saying "We've been shafted!" She really is not a wise leader, with this propensity to reach a wholly negative, knee-jerk instantaneous judgement on anything that the government does, without giving herself time to digest the detail and think through the ramifications. If I were one of the handful of remaining Tories, I'd want rid of her.
Sure, but then you will have Jenrick in charge, who they will also want rid of. Their problems are bigger than the leader.
Starmer has a 30% majority over a random lefty, with nobody else close.
Badenoch has 5% majority over Labour and a 20% lead over Reform.
Things are bad for Labour, but worse for the Conservatives. As former Conservative activists, that should bother both of us.
Which is why both Labour factions are correct. Fundamentally Reform is doing well because of the total collapse of the Conservatives, not because Labour supporters are switching to Reform in any great numbers. But because they are switching to the Greens, Lib Dems, other parties and no vote, so Reform are Labour's greatest threat
LABOUR have been left red-faced after making a glaring error in their announcement hailing the new UK-US trade deal.
Not only did they describe the deal as good – despite the US continuing to impose hefty tariffs on swathes of the UK economy – but they also left brewers baffled by claiming it would be a boon for pubs.
The UK Government press release heralding news of the deal claimed: “We will also remove the tariff on ethanol – which is used to produce beer – coming into the UK from the US, down to zero.”
There’s just one problem there. Ethanol isn’t used to produce beer.
Ethanol is a feedstock for biofuels, and is mixed in with petrol to make it slightly greener*. But there is currently no tariff on ethanol imports to the UK. It's just that there isn't much demand in the UK to mix it with petrol.
* There is much debate over whether it actually is greener
When Trump said it, we just presumed liar / poorly briefed, but the UK government repeated both it was tariffed and used to make beer. Are you sure you are correct on the tariff front, because the UK government seem convinced there was and they set them? Or are the UK government officials double morons?
Its normally safe to assume that none of them know what they're talking about.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
TLDR: they don’t need intelligent votes when the world has so many morons
Only a moron would give their vote to either Labour or the Tories, after the last 20 years
Comments
Pope Leo XIV = Thomas Becket
Donald Trump = Henry II
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/scottish-politics/hamilton-larkhall-and-stonehouse-by-election
I’m not at all religious but I get good vibes from the new pope .
Sounds like a good deal...
There is even a rare breed that sings, but does not bark: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Guinea_singing_dog
Horses, on the other hand, as far as I know, can not be taught to sing.
I did say the next Bishop of Rome betting market was a game for mugs as it was the epitome of an insiders’ market.
That showed that not only did the Pope have kids, but they liked to keep it in the family too.
Earlier today, the implied probabilities were...
Pietro Parolin: 30%
Luis Antonio Tagle: 26%
Pierbattista Pizzaballa: 10%
Matteo Zuppi: 8%
Peter Turkson: 6%
Peter Erdo: 6%
Jean-Marc Aveline: 4%
Fridolin Ambongo: 2%
Robert Sarah: 2%
Robert Prevost: 2%
Mario Grech: 2%
Dominique Mamberti: 2%
Pablo Virgilio David: 2%
... so if anyone bet on Prevost, well done!
But I'd misread 'cardinals'.
LABOUR have been left red-faced after making a glaring error in their announcement hailing the new UK-US trade deal.
Not only did they describe the deal as good – despite the US continuing to impose hefty tariffs on swathes of the UK economy – but they also left brewers baffled by claiming it would be a boon for pubs.
The UK Government press release heralding news of the deal claimed: “We will also remove the tariff on ethanol – which is used to produce beer – coming into the UK from the US, down to zero.”
There’s just one problem there. Ethanol isn’t used to produce beer.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/labour-red-faced-glaring-error-165347713.html
It’s nowhere near as nice a town as Foix, but I’ve landed myself a really good apartment for the night. It’s HUGE
There are four big rooms; kitchen, lounge, bedroom and bathroom, and the hall is pretty large too
I was going to go out for dinner, but I want to spend the evening here. I’ve bought food to cook for dinner (smoked trout, salad onions, rocket and crême fraiche, to make a sauce to go with tagliatelle)
There’s a selection of wines in the apartment to but. I’ve left 10€ cash for a bottle of Chardonnay from Côtes de Prouilhe, which is about twenty miles away
Had views like this for most of the day
* There is much debate over whether it actually is greener
https://x.com/drprevost/status/1886469097560719594
https://youtu.be/nTEyhkPB1FA?si=7xwCOKKdfluN1Hmq
But not as much as in Jeremy Irons' 1994 documentary on an African royal family.
Surely, they didn't - did they?
I could believe that Carling was any old fizzy pop that looked the part, plus a drop of ethanol, mind.
https://youtu.be/OwgkHr9F1vw?si=c6OfkNmZb2_tgnk8
Yet the most fundamentally unserious party is RefUK- the paper councillors will cause them significant headaches in the coming months, so watch for defections and resignations in that quarter. Ed Davey is getting traction with his attacks on Farage as the Poundland Trump, so the idea that NF Nigel will get things all his own way is mostly in the drug addled brains of the right wing and fash-curious media types.
With the Conservatives heading for half the Reform score, that's not going to happen.
There is frequently quite a big Tory vote left to squeeze, but that’s more likely to go Reform, rather than Labour. But, I guess most Green voters would go over to Labour.
If we started the election campaign with these numbers, I expect we’d end with something like:
Reform 39%
Labour 32%
Lib Dem 12%
Conservative 10%
Green 3%
Starmer has a 30% majority over a random lefty, with nobody else close.
Badenoch has 5% majority over Labour and a 20% lead over Reform.
Things are bad for Labour, but worse for the Conservatives. As former Conservative activists, that should bother both of us.
She really is not a wise leader, with this propensity to reach a wholly negative, knee-jerk instantaneous judgement on anything that the government does, without giving herself time to digest the detail and think through the ramifications.
If I were one of the handful of remaining Tories, I'd want rid of her.
The reality is not everything has been agreed yet and what has been is quite small beer (with added tariff free ethanol) ;-)
The dogs bark and the caravan moves on.......
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWOgBlUF0K0
And now Reform.
Look in the mirror.