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Winning the argument vs the other lot being useless – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,456
edited May 6 in General
Winning the argument vs the other lot being useless – politicalbetting.com

Reform's growth is changing the nature of its support While Reform 2024 voters are more like to say they back the party on policies & leadership – their new voters are less ideologically motivated to them & more likely to say Reform support is because of dislike of other parties

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,001
    edited May 6
    PB pedant.

    They weren't asked "why do YOU back reform" in the first couple of questions, they were asked "why do PEOPLE back Reform".

    That's different, and elided in parts of the analysis.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,701
    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Casino_Royale in Gregg’s

    It’s also broken windows theory in action. With every shoplift tolerated, every ticket easily dodged, every tag of graffiti met with a shrug, the social contract frays. The law abiding citizens ask themselves - why the fuck am I paying? Am I the sucker here?

    Ditto dodgy asylum seekers in 4 star hotels as honest people spend years trying to get the right to remain

    Meanwhile tax payers are quietly enraged, and very high taxpayers simply leave

    This is the frog boiling of an entire nation and it will end with a reform government and then something worse if we don’t change course

    They just don't get it.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,905
    edited May 6
    The Double Contribution things looks pretty routine in recent deals, unless I'm misunderstanding:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/reciprocal-agreements/reciprocal-agreements

    "Chile, Japan and South Korea only cover social security contribution liability and do not include benefits. These are known as Double Contribution Conventions."
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,944
    Immigration is the key to defeating Reform, Labour have got 3 years to get it under control and one year to show they have done it and show net emigration of low skill, low wage immigrants and reducing the number of "students" plus deporting illegal immigrants and asylum seekers.

    Three years to bring all of that down to zero and one year to bring it below zero so that people who arrive are less than people who are deported or have their low wage visa revoked.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,409
    MattW said:

    PB pedant.

    They weren't asked "why do YOU back reform" in the first couple of questions, they were asked "why do PEOPLE back Reform".

    That's different, and elided in parts of the analysis.

    Would be interesting to see the tables. The tweet (from someone at the polling company) suggests they were asked why they voted, but the legend suggests otherwise.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,388

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Casino_Royale in Gregg’s

    It’s also broken windows theory in action. With every shoplift tolerated, every ticket easily dodged, every tag of graffiti met with a shrug, the social contract frays. The law abiding citizens ask themselves - why the fuck am I paying? Am I the sucker here?

    Ditto dodgy asylum seekers in 4 star hotels as honest people spend years trying to get the right to remain

    Meanwhile tax payers are quietly enraged, and very high taxpayers simply leave

    This is the frog boiling of an entire nation and it will end with a reform government and then something worse if we don’t change course

    They just don't get it.
    They really don’t. And the smug liberal complacency, edged with sneering, makes it worse

    eg @Eabhal on the last thread

    “It’s funny watching you guys getting excited by this”

    Like we’re indulging some far right fantasy for kicks, rather than personally witnessing basic law and order crumbling on the high street
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,701
    Also, had a form for a THING in process since 14th April be returned to me today because I had a 29 day gap in employment and not a 28 day one - as I finished one job and started another 4 weeks apart - so I now have to state a REASON for this and provide a personal reference for this gap before I get my THING that I already had with my previous employer but I now have to start again and get with this one due to PROCESS, wasting everyone's time, pointlessly, to control precisely no extra risk.

    I fucking despair of this country. And it's filled with people doing wank jobs like this and making others far harder.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,701
    Also, had a form for a THING in process since 14th April be returned to me today because I had a 29 day gap in employment and not a 28 day one - as I finished one job and started another 4 weeks apart - so I now have to state a REASON for this and provide a personal reference for this gap before I get my THING that I already had with my previous employer but I now have to start again and get with this one due to PROCESS, wasting everyone's time, pointlessly, to control precisely no extra risk.

    I fucking despair of this country. And it's filled with people doing wank jobs like this and making others far harder.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,944

    Also, had a form for a THING in process since 14th April be returned to me today because I had a 29 day gap in employment and not a 28 day one - as I finished one job and started another 4 weeks apart - so I now have to state a REASON for this and provide a personal reference for this gap before I get my THING that I already had with my previous employer but I now have to start again and get with this one due to PROCESS, wasting everyone's time, pointlessly, to control precisely no extra risk.

    I fucking despair of this country. And it's filled with people doing wank jobs like this and making others far harder.

    Box tickers creating micro bureaucracies around themselves to justify their salary. Sack the lot of them.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,706
    edited May 6

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Casino_Royale in Gregg’s

    It’s also broken windows theory in action. With every shoplift tolerated, every ticket easily dodged, every tag of graffiti met with a shrug, the social contract frays. The law abiding citizens ask themselves - why the fuck am I paying? Am I the sucker here?

    Ditto dodgy asylum seekers in 4 star hotels as honest people spend years trying to get the right to remain

    Meanwhile tax payers are quietly enraged, and very high taxpayers simply leave

    This is the frog boiling of an entire nation and it will end with a reform government and then something worse if we don’t change course

    They just don't get it.
    Maybe it's that half of them don't get it, genuinely, and the other half do get it but don't want to admit it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,388
    MaxPB said:

    Immigration is the key to defeating Reform, Labour have got 3 years to get it under control and one year to show they have done it and show net emigration of low skill, low wage immigrants and reducing the number of "students" plus deporting illegal immigrants and asylum seekers.

    Three years to bring all of that down to zero and one year to bring it below zero so that people who arrive are less than people who are deported or have their low wage visa revoked.

    Yeah, and it’s not going to happen, is it. Bar some miracle. Even if Labour really WANT to do this (unlikely) I don’t believe they have the brains to work out how to do it
  • eekeek Posts: 29,943

    Also, had a form for a THING in process since 14th April be returned to me today because I had a 29 day gap in employment and not a 28 day one - as I finished one job and started another 4 weeks apart - so I now have to state a REASON for this and provide a personal reference for this gap before I get my THING that I already had with my previous employer but I now have to start again and get with this one due to PROCESS, wasting everyone's time, pointlessly, to control precisely no extra risk.

    I fucking despair of this country. And it's filled with people doing wank jobs like this and making others far harder.

    Guessing clearance of some form or other? In which case I always thought it was gaps greater than a month but it will be an outsourced jobsworth trying to justify what they charge
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,566
    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Casino_Royale in Gregg’s

    It’s also broken windows theory in action. With every shoplift tolerated, every ticket easily dodged, every tag of graffiti met with a shrug, the social contract frays. The law abiding citizens ask themselves - why the fuck am I paying? Am I the sucker here?

    Ditto dodgy asylum seekers in 4 star hotels as honest people spend years trying to get the right to remain

    Meanwhile tax payers are quietly enraged, and very high taxpayers simply leave

    This is the frog boiling of an entire nation and it will end with a reform government and then something worse if we don’t change course

    More cod psychology from Leon. It's infantile. Why not visit one of the decent agencies and get them to show you round their research departments. Pumping out the same crap day ofter interminable day just gets interesting posters to slide away
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,672
    O/t, and for light relief, read the reports of the trial of the two men accused of cutting down the Sycamore Gap tree.
    Neither of them admit they were anywhere near the tree and neither has any idea of what each other might have been doing that night.
    In a way it's hilarious.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,388
    I have some doubts about this polling. If I’m reading it right it says only ~50% of all voters want HMG to reduce immigration

    What? That can’t be right. Other polling shows a large majority of Brits want lower immigration

    eg “A YouGov survey from February 2025 found that 70% of Britons believe immigration over the past decade has been too high, with 50% describing it as “much too high” “
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,388
    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Casino_Royale in Gregg’s

    It’s also broken windows theory in action. With every shoplift tolerated, every ticket easily dodged, every tag of graffiti met with a shrug, the social contract frays. The law abiding citizens ask themselves - why the fuck am I paying? Am I the sucker here?

    Ditto dodgy asylum seekers in 4 star hotels as honest people spend years trying to get the right to remain

    Meanwhile tax payers are quietly enraged, and very high taxpayers simply leave

    This is the frog boiling of an entire nation and it will end with a reform government and then something worse if we don’t change course

    More cod psychology from Leon. It's infantile. Why not visit one of the decent agencies and get them to show you round their research departments. Pumping out the same crap day ofter interminable day just gets interesting posters to slide away
    Oh no. Are you leaving? Because of me??

    😢
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,701
    eek said:

    Also, had a form for a THING in process since 14th April be returned to me today because I had a 29 day gap in employment and not a 28 day one - as I finished one job and started another 4 weeks apart - so I now have to state a REASON for this and provide a personal reference for this gap before I get my THING that I already had with my previous employer but I now have to start again and get with this one due to PROCESS, wasting everyone's time, pointlessly, to control precisely no extra risk.

    I fucking despair of this country. And it's filled with people doing wank jobs like this and making others far harder.

    Guessing clearance of some form or other? In which case I always thought it was gaps greater than a month but it will be an outsourced jobsworth trying to justify what they charge
    Yes. Nothing in it for them in doing anything but policing compliance to their process.

    They don't have to fucking do it, and they get paid for waving the stick.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,337
    Yes Reform are becoming like the LDs used to be and capitalising on disillusion with the main parties. The common ideological link between its new voters and its last general election voters though is a desire to cut immigration.

    Farage has to beware though as the new voters who have taken his party from 14% last year to 20-30% now are not as hard right and do not like Tommy Robinson or Trump like the Reform core vote
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,672
    edited May 6
    eek said:

    Also, had a form for a THING in process since 14th April be returned to me today because I had a 29 day gap in employment and not a 28 day one - as I finished one job and started another 4 weeks apart - so I now have to state a REASON for this and provide a personal reference for this gap before I get my THING that I already had with my previous employer but I now have to start again and get with this one due to PROCESS, wasting everyone's time, pointlessly, to control precisely no extra risk.

    I fucking despair of this country. And it's filled with people doing wank jobs like this and making others far harder.

    Guessing clearance of some form or other? In which case I always thought it was gaps greater than a month but it will be an outsourced jobsworth trying to justify what they charge
    The sort of question and answer that a sensible reviewer, 'just to be sure' takes to his (probably) boss, who, if sensible, says.....oh, forget it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,001

    O/t, and for light relief, read the reports of the trial of the two men accused of cutting down the Sycamore Gap tree.
    Neither of them admit they were anywhere near the tree and neither has any idea of what each other might have been doing that night.
    In a way it's hilarious.

    I think that may cost them dearly, depending on the jury decision.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,773

    O/t, and for light relief, read the reports of the trial of the two men accused of cutting down the Sycamore Gap tree.
    Neither of them admit they were anywhere near the tree and neither has any idea of what each other might have been doing that night.
    In a way it's hilarious.

    I have been following and laughing but remember its sub judice so will not comment further!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,701
    eek said:

    Also, had a form for a THING in process since 14th April be returned to me today because I had a 29 day gap in employment and not a 28 day one - as I finished one job and started another 4 weeks apart - so I now have to state a REASON for this and provide a personal reference for this gap before I get my THING that I already had with my previous employer but I now have to start again and get with this one due to PROCESS, wasting everyone's time, pointlessly, to control precisely no extra risk.

    I fucking despair of this country. And it's filled with people doing wank jobs like this and making others far harder.

    Guessing clearance of some form or other? In which case I always thought it was gaps greater than a month but it will be an outsourced jobsworth trying to justify what they charge
    Yes. Nothing in it for them in doing anything but policing compliance to their process.

    They don't have to fucking do it, and they get paid for waving the stick and precisely zero credit for making your life easier.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,701
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Casino_Royale in Gregg’s

    It’s also broken windows theory in action. With every shoplift tolerated, every ticket easily dodged, every tag of graffiti met with a shrug, the social contract frays. The law abiding citizens ask themselves - why the fuck am I paying? Am I the sucker here?

    Ditto dodgy asylum seekers in 4 star hotels as honest people spend years trying to get the right to remain

    Meanwhile tax payers are quietly enraged, and very high taxpayers simply leave

    This is the frog boiling of an entire nation and it will end with a reform government and then something worse if we don’t change course

    They just don't get it.
    They really don’t. And the smug liberal complacency, edged with sneering, makes it worse

    eg @Eabhal on the last thread

    “It’s funny watching you guys getting excited by this”

    Like we’re indulging some far right fantasy for kicks, rather than personally witnessing basic law and order crumbling on the high street
    They're going to drive me to Reform. I can see how this happens in real-time. There is absolutely no desire to listen and learn.

    We even had @Stereodog yesterday saying he'd rather have Nigel Farage than Labour move one inch on the migration issue.

    Well, then he'll get Nigel Farage.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,701

    The header confirms that Reform is NOTA.

    Immigration is not the story, or not the whole story. PBers arguing about small boats vs the Boriswave, or asylum seekers vs illegal immigrants, are getting hung up on the precise number on the side of a bus. It matters a bit but it's not really the point.

    Luke Tryl/MiC: their new voters are less ideologically motivated to them & more likely to say Reform support is because of dislike of other parties
    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3loistkxdcs2f

    ‘Dislike of other parties’ is pollster-speak for NOTA. Reform is NOTA.

    It's very simple: the mainstream parties get a grip on crime, law and order and immigration and all these fringe parties go away.

    If they don't, then they'll win instead.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,388

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Casino_Royale in Gregg’s

    It’s also broken windows theory in action. With every shoplift tolerated, every ticket easily dodged, every tag of graffiti met with a shrug, the social contract frays. The law abiding citizens ask themselves - why the fuck am I paying? Am I the sucker here?

    Ditto dodgy asylum seekers in 4 star hotels as honest people spend years trying to get the right to remain

    Meanwhile tax payers are quietly enraged, and very high taxpayers simply leave

    This is the frog boiling of an entire nation and it will end with a reform government and then something worse if we don’t change course

    They just don't get it.
    They really don’t. And the smug liberal complacency, edged with sneering, makes it worse

    eg @Eabhal on the last thread

    “It’s funny watching you guys getting excited by this”

    Like we’re indulging some far right fantasy for kicks, rather than personally witnessing basic law and order crumbling on the high street
    They're going to drive me to Reform. I can see how this happens in real-time. There is absolutely no desire to listen and learn.

    We even had @Stereodog yesterday saying he'd rather have Nigel Farage than Labour move one inch on the migration issue.

    Well, then he'll get Nigel Farage.
    Yes their moral vanity outweighs the safety and prosperity of the nation. It’s supremely selfish - and self-harming
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 122
    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Casino_Royale in Gregg’s

    It’s also broken windows theory in action. With every shoplift tolerated, every ticket easily dodged, every tag of graffiti met with a shrug, the social contract frays. The law abiding citizens ask themselves - why the fuck am I paying? Am I the sucker here?

    Ditto dodgy asylum seekers in 4 star hotels as honest people spend years trying to get the right to remain

    Meanwhile tax payers are quietly enraged, and very high taxpayers simply leave

    This is the frog boiling of an entire nation and it will end with a reform government and then something worse if we don’t change course

    More cod psychology from Leon. It's infantile. Why not visit one of the decent agencies and get them to show you round their research departments. Pumping out the same crap day ofter interminable day just gets interesting posters to slide away
    So you'll be staying then!😂😂😂
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,365
    Net favourability change of +4/+8 to -13 on Trump & Robinson isn't going to change much.

    I assume Elon Musk is at a lower starting point than Trump because of his woke views on climate change :D
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,388

    The header confirms that Reform is NOTA.

    Immigration is not the story, or not the whole story. PBers arguing about small boats vs the Boriswave, or asylum seekers vs illegal immigrants, are getting hung up on the precise number on the side of a bus. It matters a bit but it's not really the point.

    Luke Tryl/MiC: their new voters are less ideologically motivated to them & more likely to say Reform support is because of dislike of other parties
    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3loistkxdcs2f

    ‘Dislike of other parties’ is pollster-speak for NOTA. Reform is NOTA.

    lol. The denial is incredible

    The polling IN THE THREADER shows that 66% of reform voters are voting reform explicitly because of immigration

    So, yes, immigration is the story
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,706
    This is an example of a condescending article imo.

    "What Reform gets wrong about Britain
    The electorate is remarkably moderate
    Chris Clarke"

    https://unherd.com/2025/05/what-reform-gets-wrong-about-britain/
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,534
    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Casino_Royale in Gregg’s

    It’s also broken windows theory in action. With every shoplift tolerated, every ticket easily dodged, every tag of graffiti met with a shrug, the social contract frays. The law abiding citizens ask themselves - why the fuck am I paying? Am I the sucker here?

    Ditto dodgy asylum seekers in 4 star hotels as honest people spend years trying to get the right to remain

    Meanwhile tax payers are quietly enraged, and very high taxpayers simply leave

    This is the frog boiling of an entire nation and it will end with a reform government and then something worse if we don’t change course

    I think it might have been Barty who called out your 4* hotel lie last week, citing Copthorne who were undergoing difficult trading prior to COVID and latterly asylum. Whoever it was specified the requirements for a hotel to be 4* and explained that all the 4*edness had been stripped out of Copthorne locations for our asylum seeking friends.

    Yet you are still allowed to post nonsense unchallenged. What next? Quoting Andrew Tate's X account as source material. Oh wait, apologies, that was Nigel Farage.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,464
    Deliveroo deal shows UK still can't hang on to big firms
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgp22d2kexo

    If Britain is to reverse its decline relative to the United States, this is an area that needs to be addressed. I've done my bit by ordering lunch.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,001
    edited May 6
    Two somewhat off-topics, that may of interest to some - @Eabhal , @OldKingCole , @Benpointer ?.

    Wheels for Wellbeing's submission on the Pedestrianisation of Oxford Street.

    No-one will agree with all of it (I do with perhaps 85%), but it's an example of the many different things that need to be considered. The division of mobility aids into lower speed (ie walking pace such as Class 1/2 Mobility Scooters, cycles in "walking" mode) and higher speed (eg Class 3 scooters when doing 8mph on the carriageway or mobility track, e-cycles, power wheelchairs depending on spec) is interesting, and how the latter are seen as an accessible alternative to a partly accessible public transport system in London.
    https://wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk/oxford-street-transformation-consultation-wfw-response/

    Their assessment of "Two Stage Right Turns" for tricycles and larger mobility aids, and how they handle different eg tricycles can't lean to cut corners. A two stage turn is where there is a painted spot at the left hand facing corner for waiting until the lights change to be the other way, when they can proceed, rather than waiting in the middle of the junction. They are used in Denmark, whilst the Netherlands tend to a separate track or an "all green at once" phase where these users can go anywhere, including diagonally, and the motor vehicles are just stopped.
    https://wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk/wheels-for-wellbeing-guide-to-two-stage-turns/
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,922
    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Casino_Royale in Gregg’s

    It’s also broken windows theory in action. With every shoplift tolerated, every ticket easily dodged, every tag of graffiti met with a shrug, the social contract frays. The law abiding citizens ask themselves - why the fuck am I paying? Am I the sucker here?

    Ditto dodgy asylum seekers in 4 star hotels as honest people spend years trying to get the right to remain

    Meanwhile tax payers are quietly enraged, and very high taxpayers simply leave

    This is the frog boiling of an entire nation and it will end with a reform government and then something worse if we don’t change course

    More cod psychology from Leon. It's infantile. Why not visit one of the decent agencies and get them to show you round their research departments. Pumping out the same crap day ofter interminable day just gets interesting posters to slide away
    TBF none of us present thought-through policy positions on here. Some comments are half-baked; the rest haven't seen the inside of an oven at all.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,701
    I think I need to watch Falling Down.

    Maybe that will be cathartic for me.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,464
    Leon said:

    The header confirms that Reform is NOTA.

    Immigration is not the story, or not the whole story. PBers arguing about small boats vs the Boriswave, or asylum seekers vs illegal immigrants, are getting hung up on the precise number on the side of a bus. It matters a bit but it's not really the point.

    Luke Tryl/MiC: their new voters are less ideologically motivated to them & more likely to say Reform support is because of dislike of other parties
    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3loistkxdcs2f

    ‘Dislike of other parties’ is pollster-speak for NOTA. Reform is NOTA.

    lol. The denial is incredible

    The polling IN THE THREADER shows that 66% of reform voters are voting reform explicitly because of immigration

    So, yes, immigration is the story
    And the new voters, the ones not previously backing them, are NOTA, as the pollster says. Look at the pictures.
  • Meanwhile this vile government is moving its vile anti-farmer legislation in the House of Lords today. Legislation so vile, so evil that no former Labour Agriculture minister is prepared to stay around for the vote.

    There used to be a contract between agriculture and the wider public. No more as long as this most evil government since 1685 marches on to its own eventual unlamented end.

    This money will have to be recovered, probably from the pension pots of former Labour front benchers. It is malfeasance in public office.

    It is theft.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,534

    I think I need to watch Falling Down.

    Maybe that will be cathartic for me.

    Whatever you do don't set foot inside a burger joint.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,001

    The header confirms that Reform is NOTA.

    Immigration is not the story, or not the whole story. PBers arguing about small boats vs the Boriswave, or asylum seekers vs illegal immigrants, are getting hung up on the precise number on the side of a bus. It matters a bit but it's not really the point.

    Luke Tryl/MiC: their new voters are less ideologically motivated to them & more likely to say Reform support is because of dislike of other parties
    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3loistkxdcs2f

    ‘Dislike of other parties’ is pollster-speak for NOTA. Reform is NOTA.

    It's very simple: the mainstream parties get a grip on crime, law and order and immigration and all these fringe parties go away.

    If they don't, then they'll win instead.
    I'm not so sure. They will partially go away, but a proportion will just flit to the next fringe theory or issue.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,943

    eek said:

    Also, had a form for a THING in process since 14th April be returned to me today because I had a 29 day gap in employment and not a 28 day one - as I finished one job and started another 4 weeks apart - so I now have to state a REASON for this and provide a personal reference for this gap before I get my THING that I already had with my previous employer but I now have to start again and get with this one due to PROCESS, wasting everyone's time, pointlessly, to control precisely no extra risk.

    I fucking despair of this country. And it's filled with people doing wank jobs like this and making others far harder.

    Guessing clearance of some form or other? In which case I always thought it was gaps greater than a month but it will be an outsourced jobsworth trying to justify what they charge
    Yes. Nothing in it for them in doing anything but policing compliance to their process.

    They don't have to fucking do it, and they get paid for waving the stick.
    There is probably a bonus for finding this type of issue as it probably means a full submission so a higher fee
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,672
    Helen Whatley, speaking on behalf of the Conservative has said, inter alia, about the Winter Fuel Payments.
    "Unfortunately, this change of heart is far too late for the millions of pensioners who lost their payment this winter. Thousands of the the most vulnerable missed out and hospital admissions soared."
    I wasn't aware that hospital admissions 'soared'; did they?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,388

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Casino_Royale in Gregg’s

    It’s also broken windows theory in action. With every shoplift tolerated, every ticket easily dodged, every tag of graffiti met with a shrug, the social contract frays. The law abiding citizens ask themselves - why the fuck am I paying? Am I the sucker here?

    Ditto dodgy asylum seekers in 4 star hotels as honest people spend years trying to get the right to remain

    Meanwhile tax payers are quietly enraged, and very high taxpayers simply leave

    This is the frog boiling of an entire nation and it will end with a reform government and then something worse if we don’t change course

    I think it might have been Barty who called out your 4* hotel lie last week, citing Copthorne who were undergoing difficult trading prior to COVID and latterly asylum. Whoever it was specified the requirements for a hotel to be 4* and explained that all the 4*edness had been stripped out of Copthorne locations for our asylum seeking friends.

    Yet you are still allowed to post nonsense unchallenged. What next? Quoting Andrew Tate's X account as source material. Oh wait, apologies, that was Nigel Farage.
    Good luck in going to the voters while saying “it WAS a four star hotel when we took it over and gave it to asylum seekers, but we closed the gym and they only get laundry done twice a week, and free heath care, and immediate dental work, and you’re paying for it all, and you can’t use the hotel. So it’s really only like a weird 3 star with a private hospital. That you are paying for. So that these men can wander around your town freaking you out. Vote for more of this!”
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,839

    I think I need to watch Falling Down.

    Maybe that will be cathartic for me.

    Watch Die Another Day or Casino Royale (David Niven version which is the best Casino Royale.)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,839
    edited May 6
    Omnium said:

    fpt: @TSE

    "NEWT HREAD"

    Do you know that the newt used to be the ewt. Over time the 'An ewt' migrated to become 'A newt'. The slippery adder had the reverse, it was once 'a nadder'.

    So you're in good company.

    That is brilliant.

    This is what my autocorrect thinks I mean most of the time.


  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,001

    Helen Whatley, speaking on behalf of the Conservative has said, inter alia, about the Winter Fuel Payments.
    "Unfortunately, this change of heart is far too late for the millions of pensioners who lost their payment this winter. Thousands of the the most vulnerable missed out and hospital admissions soared."
    I wasn't aware that hospital admissions 'soared'; did they?

    Overall, the conditions this winter, while severe, were similar to those in recent years and not far above what the NHS can normally expect. Attributing operational problems to external factors such as winter illnesses and higher demand risks offering false comfort about the resilience of the health service.

    Our analysis shows the health service performing far worse than before the pandemic and reporting record or near-record levels of operational problems across urgent and emergency care. Ahead of the government’s forthcoming Urgent and Emergency Care Plan, this raises key questions about what might be behind some of the underlying issues contributing to what has now become an annual winter crisis. 

    https://www.health.org.uk/reports-and-analysis/analysis/did-the-nhs-experience-record-pressures-this-winter
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,010

    Omnium said:

    fpt: @TSE

    "NEWT HREAD"

    Do you know that the newt used to be the ewt. Over time the 'An ewt' migrated to become 'A newt'. The slippery adder had the reverse, it was once 'a nadder'.

    So you're in good company.

    That is brilliant.
    I think an orange fits into this category. That's why in Spanish (naranja) it still has its N.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,591
    Reform 2024 voters have a net positive opinion of Tommy Robinson, but its "not a racist party" ...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,507
    Moderately interesting to see in real time PB righties gradually inhabiting the mental landscape of Reform being in charge and them being fine with it. Usual suspects of course, and some not so usual, but no big surprises really.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,773

    I think I need to watch Falling Down.

    Maybe that will be cathartic for me.

    Not quite the same but I am a 'fan' of establishments that have photographs of food that just look terrible. Often it will be a local fast food store, but I'd argue Iceland also do this. Its not hard to make food look good - after all the big fast food places do it (hence the scene in Falling Down).
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,534
    ...
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Casino_Royale in Gregg’s

    It’s also broken windows theory in action. With every shoplift tolerated, every ticket easily dodged, every tag of graffiti met with a shrug, the social contract frays. The law abiding citizens ask themselves - why the fuck am I paying? Am I the sucker here?

    Ditto dodgy asylum seekers in 4 star hotels as honest people spend years trying to get the right to remain

    Meanwhile tax payers are quietly enraged, and very high taxpayers simply leave

    This is the frog boiling of an entire nation and it will end with a reform government and then something worse if we don’t change course

    I think it might have been Barty who called out your 4* hotel lie last week, citing Copthorne who were undergoing difficult trading prior to COVID and latterly asylum. Whoever it was specified the requirements for a hotel to be 4* and explained that all the 4*edness had been stripped out of Copthorne locations for our asylum seeking friends.

    Yet you are still allowed to post nonsense unchallenged. What next? Quoting Andrew Tate's X account as source material. Oh wait, apologies, that was Nigel Farage.
    Good luck in going to the voters while saying “it WAS a four star hotel when we took it over and gave it to asylum seekers, but we closed the gym and they only get laundry done twice a week, and free heath care, and immediate dental work, and you’re paying for it all, and you can’t use the hotel. So it’s really only like a weird 3 star with a private hospital. That you are paying for. So that these men can wander around your town freaking you out. Vote for more of this!”
    I'm not enthusiastic about my tax pounds going to a series of failing hotel groups. The boats need to be stopped for safety issues as much as for anything else. I am simply calling out your lies (sorry about the unparliamentary language, but I'm not sure what else to call it) to elicit a reaction from certain fragile on this subject posters
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,010
    edited May 6

    Helen Whatley, speaking on behalf of the Conservative has said, inter alia, about the Winter Fuel Payments.
    "Unfortunately, this change of heart is far too late for the millions of pensioners who lost their payment this winter. Thousands of the the most vulnerable missed out and hospital admissions soared."
    I wasn't aware that hospital admissions 'soared'; did they?

    Yes, while Reeves has been largely terrible, removing the WFA was the right thing to do and was one of her few good decisions.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,773

    Helen Whatley, speaking on behalf of the Conservative has said, inter alia, about the Winter Fuel Payments.
    "Unfortunately, this change of heart is far too late for the millions of pensioners who lost their payment this winter. Thousands of the the most vulnerable missed out and hospital admissions soared."
    I wasn't aware that hospital admissions 'soared'; did they?

    They always do in winter, WFA or not.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,756
    These people must live in total bubble.

    Deluded, doesn't begin to capture it.


    " "this government has hit the ground running on social care," said Stephen Kinnock, minister of state for care."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zpwx74e6o
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,010

    ...

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Casino_Royale in Gregg’s

    It’s also broken windows theory in action. With every shoplift tolerated, every ticket easily dodged, every tag of graffiti met with a shrug, the social contract frays. The law abiding citizens ask themselves - why the fuck am I paying? Am I the sucker here?

    Ditto dodgy asylum seekers in 4 star hotels as honest people spend years trying to get the right to remain

    Meanwhile tax payers are quietly enraged, and very high taxpayers simply leave

    This is the frog boiling of an entire nation and it will end with a reform government and then something worse if we don’t change course

    I think it might have been Barty who called out your 4* hotel lie last week, citing Copthorne who were undergoing difficult trading prior to COVID and latterly asylum. Whoever it was specified the requirements for a hotel to be 4* and explained that all the 4*edness had been stripped out of Copthorne locations for our asylum seeking friends.

    Yet you are still allowed to post nonsense unchallenged. What next? Quoting Andrew Tate's X account as source material. Oh wait, apologies, that was Nigel Farage.
    Good luck in going to the voters while saying “it WAS a four star hotel when we took it over and gave it to asylum seekers, but we closed the gym and they only get laundry done twice a week, and free heath care, and immediate dental work, and you’re paying for it all, and you can’t use the hotel. So it’s really only like a weird 3 star with a private hospital. That you are paying for. So that these men can wander around your town freaking you out. Vote for more of this!”
    I'm not enthusiastic about my tax pounds going to a series of failing hotel groups. The boats need to be stopped for safety issues as much as for anything else. I am simply calling out your lies (sorry about the unparliamentary language, but I'm not sure what else to call it) to elicit a reaction from certain fragile on this subject posters
    It's not really a lie, though is it? These are 4-star hotels. The fact that some of the facilities are unavailable doesn't massively change this unless you're, er, whichever body is responsible for awarding stars to hotels.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,591

    Meanwhile this vile government is moving its vile anti-farmer legislation in the House of Lords today. Legislation so vile, so evil that no former Labour Agriculture minister is prepared to stay around for the vote.

    There used to be a contract between agriculture and the wider public. No more as long as this most evil government since 1685 marches on to its own eventual unlamented end.

    This money will have to be recovered, probably from the pension pots of former Labour front benchers. It is malfeasance in public office.

    It is theft.

    🎻

    Abolishing a tax break that didn't even exist a few decades ago is theft and evil on a level not seen since 1685? Hyperbole much?

    Taxes should be low, consistent and equally applied to all. If the tax should be abolished, it should be abolished for all. If it should be levied, it should be levied on all, including farmers.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,198
    edited May 6
    Has Starmer really just agreed an Indian trade deal that Indians coming to work do not have to pay National Insurance for 3 years?

    Seems Badenoch and the Lib Dems are distinctly unhappy and if true, goodness knows what Farage will say

    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1919775482167361715?t=o06IkR3woHnneSqyBRitvA&s=19
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,530
    Cookie said:

    Omnium said:

    fpt: @TSE

    "NEWT HREAD"

    Do you know that the newt used to be the ewt. Over time the 'An ewt' migrated to become 'A newt'. The slippery adder had the reverse, it was once 'a nadder'.

    So you're in good company.

    That is brilliant.
    I think an orange fits into this category. That's why in Spanish (naranja) it still has its N.
    Following TSE's lead the next time I buy some clothes I may acquire some newt rousers!
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,591
    Cookie said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Casino_Royale in Gregg’s

    It’s also broken windows theory in action. With every shoplift tolerated, every ticket easily dodged, every tag of graffiti met with a shrug, the social contract frays. The law abiding citizens ask themselves - why the fuck am I paying? Am I the sucker here?

    Ditto dodgy asylum seekers in 4 star hotels as honest people spend years trying to get the right to remain

    Meanwhile tax payers are quietly enraged, and very high taxpayers simply leave

    This is the frog boiling of an entire nation and it will end with a reform government and then something worse if we don’t change course

    I think it might have been Barty who called out your 4* hotel lie last week, citing Copthorne who were undergoing difficult trading prior to COVID and latterly asylum. Whoever it was specified the requirements for a hotel to be 4* and explained that all the 4*edness had been stripped out of Copthorne locations for our asylum seeking friends.

    Yet you are still allowed to post nonsense unchallenged. What next? Quoting Andrew Tate's X account as source material. Oh wait, apologies, that was Nigel Farage.
    Good luck in going to the voters while saying “it WAS a four star hotel when we took it over and gave it to asylum seekers, but we closed the gym and they only get laundry done twice a week, and free heath care, and immediate dental work, and you’re paying for it all, and you can’t use the hotel. So it’s really only like a weird 3 star with a private hospital. That you are paying for. So that these men can wander around your town freaking you out. Vote for more of this!”
    I'm not enthusiastic about my tax pounds going to a series of failing hotel groups. The boats need to be stopped for safety issues as much as for anything else. I am simply calling out your lies (sorry about the unparliamentary language, but I'm not sure what else to call it) to elicit a reaction from certain fragile on this subject posters
    It's not really a lie, though is it? These are 4-star hotels. The fact that some of the facilities are unavailable doesn't massively change this unless you're, er, whichever body is responsible for awarding stars to hotels.
    The facilities are what makes a 4-star a 4-star hotel. If the facilities are unavailable, it ceases to be 4-stars.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,475
    Omnium said:

    fpt: @TSE

    "NEWT HREAD"

    Do you know that the newt used to be the ewt. Over time the 'An ewt' migrated to become 'A newt'. The slippery adder had the reverse, it was once 'a nadder'.

    So you're in good company.

    As an aside, I've actually seen adders referred to as 'nadders'. Can't remember where, but it was fairly obvious from the context. I've never seen newts as 'ewt'.

    (It might have been a Poldark book?)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,944
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Casino_Royale in Gregg’s

    It’s also broken windows theory in action. With every shoplift tolerated, every ticket easily dodged, every tag of graffiti met with a shrug, the social contract frays. The law abiding citizens ask themselves - why the fuck am I paying? Am I the sucker here?

    Ditto dodgy asylum seekers in 4 star hotels as honest people spend years trying to get the right to remain

    Meanwhile tax payers are quietly enraged, and very high taxpayers simply leave

    This is the frog boiling of an entire nation and it will end with a reform government and then something worse if we don’t change course

    I think it might have been Barty who called out your 4* hotel lie last week, citing Copthorne who were undergoing difficult trading prior to COVID and latterly asylum. Whoever it was specified the requirements for a hotel to be 4* and explained that all the 4*edness had been stripped out of Copthorne locations for our asylum seeking friends.

    Yet you are still allowed to post nonsense unchallenged. What next? Quoting Andrew Tate's X account as source material. Oh wait, apologies, that was Nigel Farage.
    Good luck in going to the voters while saying “it WAS a four star hotel when we took it over and gave it to asylum seekers, but we closed the gym and they only get laundry done twice a week, and free heath care, and immediate dental work, and you’re paying for it all, and you can’t use the hotel. So it’s really only like a weird 3 star with a private hospital. That you are paying for. So that these men can wander around your town freaking you out. Vote for more of this!”
    It's the £350m all over again, when the explanation is - "actually it's not £350m it's £200m" they've lost the argument because they've accepted the premise of any number being bad. Any number of illegal immigrants being put up in hotels at the taxpayers expense is bad. The Tories have a lot to answer for on this and they rightly got smashed at the election. If Labour don't deport them all by the end of this year and close this programme they'll get smashed too.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,100

    Has Starmer really just agreed an Indian trade deal that Indians coming to work do not have to pay National Insurance for 3 years?

    Seems Badenoch and the Lib Dems are distinctly unhappy and if true, goodness knows what Farage will say

    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1919775482167361715?t=o06IkR3woHnneSqyBRitvA&s=19

    Also nothing's been said about carbon taxes which was a key Indian demand, so they probably have an exemption.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,534

    Has Starmer really just agreed an Indian trade deal that Indians coming to work do not have to pay National Insurance for 3 years?

    Seems Badenoch and the Lib Dems are distinctly unhappy and if true, goodness knows what Farage will say

    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1919775482167361715?t=o06IkR3woHnneSqyBRitvA&s=19

    At least they won't get a national insurance number and pension rights when they turn 67. I thought you would like that.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,198

    Has Starmer really just agreed an Indian trade deal that Indians coming to work do not have to pay National Insurance for 3 years?

    Seems Badenoch and the Lib Dems are distinctly unhappy and if true, goodness knows what Farage will say

    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1919775482167361715?t=o06IkR3woHnneSqyBRitvA&s=19

    At least they won't get a national insurance number and pension rights when they turn 67. I thought you would like that.
    Why
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,672
    Cookie said:

    Helen Whatley, speaking on behalf of the Conservative has said, inter alia, about the Winter Fuel Payments.
    "Unfortunately, this change of heart is far too late for the millions of pensioners who lost their payment this winter. Thousands of the the most vulnerable missed out and hospital admissions soared."
    I wasn't aware that hospital admissions 'soared'; did they?

    Yes, while Reeves has been largely terrible, removing the WFA was the right thing to do and was one of her few good decisions.
    My wife and I were recipients of the WFA, and among those who were fortunate enough that it was a 'nice to have'.
    I've a lot of sympathy for those for whom it was 'highly desirable' and particularly for those for whom it was 'essential' and hope that for the winter 2025-6 a scheme can be devised that leaves us out but covers those less fortunate.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,475

    Reform 2024 voters have a net positive opinion of Tommy Robinson, but its "not a racist party" ...

    A lot of people won't actually know who Tommy Robinson is, but will have heard from various places that he was jailed for telling a truth they think they might agree with.

    That's b/s, but it's the way various people are playing it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,534
    Cookie said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Casino_Royale in Gregg’s

    It’s also broken windows theory in action. With every shoplift tolerated, every ticket easily dodged, every tag of graffiti met with a shrug, the social contract frays. The law abiding citizens ask themselves - why the fuck am I paying? Am I the sucker here?

    Ditto dodgy asylum seekers in 4 star hotels as honest people spend years trying to get the right to remain

    Meanwhile tax payers are quietly enraged, and very high taxpayers simply leave

    This is the frog boiling of an entire nation and it will end with a reform government and then something worse if we don’t change course

    I think it might have been Barty who called out your 4* hotel lie last week, citing Copthorne who were undergoing difficult trading prior to COVID and latterly asylum. Whoever it was specified the requirements for a hotel to be 4* and explained that all the 4*edness had been stripped out of Copthorne locations for our asylum seeking friends.

    Yet you are still allowed to post nonsense unchallenged. What next? Quoting Andrew Tate's X account as source material. Oh wait, apologies, that was Nigel Farage.
    Good luck in going to the voters while saying “it WAS a four star hotel when we took it over and gave it to asylum seekers, but we closed the gym and they only get laundry done twice a week, and free heath care, and immediate dental work, and you’re paying for it all, and you can’t use the hotel. So it’s really only like a weird 3 star with a private hospital. That you are paying for. So that these men can wander around your town freaking you out. Vote for more of this!”
    I'm not enthusiastic about my tax pounds going to a series of failing hotel groups. The boats need to be stopped for safety issues as much as for anything else. I am simply calling out your lies (sorry about the unparliamentary language, but I'm not sure what else to call it) to elicit a reaction from certain fragile on this subject posters
    It's not really a lie, though is it? These are 4-star hotels. The fact that some of the facilities are unavailable doesn't massively change this unless you're, er, whichever body is responsible for awarding stars to hotels.
    Yes it is. They are no longer regarded as 4* so you and Leon suggesting they are is a mechanism to make a political point. Or in other words it's inflammatory bollocks.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,943

    Has Starmer really just agreed an Indian trade deal that Indians coming to work do not have to pay National Insurance for 3 years?

    Seems Badenoch and the Lib Dems are distinctly unhappy and if true, goodness knows what Farage will say

    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1919775482167361715?t=o06IkR3woHnneSqyBRitvA&s=19

    At least they won't get a national insurance number and pension rights when they turn 67. I thought you would like that.
    But it’s now 15% cheaper to import a worker rather than employing a UK national and TCS (and others) have played so many tricks over the years to pretend that they couldn’t get skilled UK workers (when what they actually meant was they couldn’t get UK workers for the absolute pittance they wanted to pay).
  • Meanwhile this vile government is moving its vile anti-farmer legislation in the House of Lords today. Legislation so vile, so evil that no former Labour Agriculture minister is prepared to stay around for the vote.

    There used to be a contract between agriculture and the wider public. No more as long as this most evil government since 1685 marches on to its own eventual unlamented end.

    This money will have to be recovered, probably from the pension pots of former Labour front benchers. It is malfeasance in public office.

    It is theft.

    🎻

    Abolishing a tax break that didn't even exist a few decades ago is theft and evil on a level not seen since 1685? Hyperbole much?

    Taxes should be low, consistent and equally applied to all. If the tax should be abolished, it should be abolished for all. If it should be levied, it should be levied on all, including farmers.
    It has actually been policy since the 1947 Act. The transition arrangements post Brexit have been unilaterally torn up. Yes, it is theft. Yes it is evil. I suspect you think I am on about IHT which is another but different evil for which this government will have a long time to repent.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,001
    edited May 6
    ..
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,706
    "Downing Street rules out reversing cut to winter fuel payment" (£)

    https://www.ft.com/content/b518a33e-97e1-4bf6-844e-69acf2f5f2b7
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,944
    edited May 6
    eek said:

    Has Starmer really just agreed an Indian trade deal that Indians coming to work do not have to pay National Insurance for 3 years?

    Seems Badenoch and the Lib Dems are distinctly unhappy and if true, goodness knows what Farage will say

    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1919775482167361715?t=o06IkR3woHnneSqyBRitvA&s=19

    At least they won't get a national insurance number and pension rights when they turn 67. I thought you would like that.
    But it’s now 15% cheaper to import a worker rather than employing a UK national and TCS (and others) have played so many tricks over the years to pretend that they couldn’t get skilled UK workers (when what they actually meant was they couldn’t get UK workers for the absolute pittance they wanted to pay).
    I think it's only employee NI, but another reason to merge employee NI with income tax.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,701
    MattW said:

    The header confirms that Reform is NOTA.

    Immigration is not the story, or not the whole story. PBers arguing about small boats vs the Boriswave, or asylum seekers vs illegal immigrants, are getting hung up on the precise number on the side of a bus. It matters a bit but it's not really the point.

    Luke Tryl/MiC: their new voters are less ideologically motivated to them & more likely to say Reform support is because of dislike of other parties
    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3loistkxdcs2f

    ‘Dislike of other parties’ is pollster-speak for NOTA. Reform is NOTA.

    It's very simple: the mainstream parties get a grip on crime, law and order and immigration and all these fringe parties go away.

    If they don't, then they'll win instead.
    I'm not so sure. They will partially go away, but a proportion will just flit to the next fringe theory or issue.
    Oh my God.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,905

    Has Starmer really just agreed an Indian trade deal that Indians coming to work do not have to pay National Insurance for 3 years?

    Seems Badenoch and the Lib Dems are distinctly unhappy and if true, goodness knows what Farage will say

    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1919775482167361715?t=o06IkR3woHnneSqyBRitvA&s=19

    As I posted above, this appears to be a common provision in our trade deals, including recent Chilean, Korean and Japanese ones. Happy to be corrected.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,388

    Moderately interesting to see in real time PB righties gradually inhabiting the mental landscape of Reform being in charge and them being fine with it. Usual suspects of course, and some not so usual, but no big surprises really.

    Did you miss the recent election, then?

    It was quite a big one. An actual by election, several mayoralties, lots of councils

    Think of it as a MASSIVE opinion poll. With about ten million people being asked their opinions. And the result? Reform are the most popular party in the UK/England by a distance, on 30% of the vote, with Labour and the Tories down at 20% and 15%

    Britain is now, politically, rather Reform-y. Reform are the most popular party in Britain. On a website devoted to politics, esp British politics, you would expect the commentary to reflect that, and it does

    PB is not a safe space for liberals it is a forum for opinions from left and right. There would be something sadly WRONG if PB was NOT reflecting the Reform-y state of the nation
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,773
    Andy_JS said:

    "Downing Street rules out reversing cut to winter fuel payment" (£)

    https://www.ft.com/content/b518a33e-97e1-4bf6-844e-69acf2f5f2b7

    U-turning on the U-turn?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,944

    MattW said:

    The header confirms that Reform is NOTA.

    Immigration is not the story, or not the whole story. PBers arguing about small boats vs the Boriswave, or asylum seekers vs illegal immigrants, are getting hung up on the precise number on the side of a bus. It matters a bit but it's not really the point.

    Luke Tryl/MiC: their new voters are less ideologically motivated to them & more likely to say Reform support is because of dislike of other parties
    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3loistkxdcs2f

    ‘Dislike of other parties’ is pollster-speak for NOTA. Reform is NOTA.

    It's very simple: the mainstream parties get a grip on crime, law and order and immigration and all these fringe parties go away.

    If they don't, then they'll win instead.
    I'm not so sure. They will partially go away, but a proportion will just flit to the next fringe theory or issue.
    Oh my God.
    It's quite shocking how complacent the ultra liberals are.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,701

    Moderately interesting to see in real time PB righties gradually inhabiting the mental landscape of Reform being in charge and them being fine with it. Usual suspects of course, and some not so usual, but no big surprises really.

    You're causing it.

    You're too dumb to see it.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,905

    Has Starmer really just agreed an Indian trade deal that Indians coming to work do not have to pay National Insurance for 3 years?

    Seems Badenoch and the Lib Dems are distinctly unhappy and if true, goodness knows what Farage will say

    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1919775482167361715?t=o06IkR3woHnneSqyBRitvA&s=19

    Also nothing's been said about carbon taxes which was a key Indian demand, so they probably have an exemption.
    "There will be no exemption from the UK’s forthcoming carbon tax as part of the deal, although talks on this continue." (guardian)

    This may have been punted because we are about to agree something on carbon with the EU.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,534
    edited May 6
    ...
    Andy_JS said:

    "Downing Street rules out reversing cut to winter fuel payment" (£)

    https://www.ft.com/content/b518a33e-97e1-4bf6-844e-69acf2f5f2b7

    They haven't mentioned tweaking or staggering the trigger mechanism which was always a more likely route for them to take rather than to bin it entirely.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,701
    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    The header confirms that Reform is NOTA.

    Immigration is not the story, or not the whole story. PBers arguing about small boats vs the Boriswave, or asylum seekers vs illegal immigrants, are getting hung up on the precise number on the side of a bus. It matters a bit but it's not really the point.

    Luke Tryl/MiC: their new voters are less ideologically motivated to them & more likely to say Reform support is because of dislike of other parties
    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3loistkxdcs2f

    ‘Dislike of other parties’ is pollster-speak for NOTA. Reform is NOTA.

    It's very simple: the mainstream parties get a grip on crime, law and order and immigration and all these fringe parties go away.

    If they don't, then they'll win instead.
    I'm not so sure. They will partially go away, but a proportion will just flit to the next fringe theory or issue.
    Oh my God.
    It's quite shocking how complacent the ultra liberals are.
    I mean, is it just fucking me?

    There's almost two dozen of them on here.

    I mean, FUCK ME.

    How dumb do you have to be?!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,944

    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    The header confirms that Reform is NOTA.

    Immigration is not the story, or not the whole story. PBers arguing about small boats vs the Boriswave, or asylum seekers vs illegal immigrants, are getting hung up on the precise number on the side of a bus. It matters a bit but it's not really the point.

    Luke Tryl/MiC: their new voters are less ideologically motivated to them & more likely to say Reform support is because of dislike of other parties
    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3loistkxdcs2f

    ‘Dislike of other parties’ is pollster-speak for NOTA. Reform is NOTA.

    It's very simple: the mainstream parties get a grip on crime, law and order and immigration and all these fringe parties go away.

    If they don't, then they'll win instead.
    I'm not so sure. They will partially go away, but a proportion will just flit to the next fringe theory or issue.
    Oh my God.
    It's quite shocking how complacent the ultra liberals are.
    I mean, is it just fucking me?

    There's almost two dozen of them on here.

    I mean, FUCK ME.

    How dumb do you have to be?!
    I expect this is how the Roman elites acted during the end days.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,445
    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Downing Street rules out reversing cut to winter fuel payment" (£)

    https://www.ft.com/content/b518a33e-97e1-4bf6-844e-69acf2f5f2b7

    U-turning on the U-turn?
    Poo-pooing the poo poo.
    That’s how you lose a whole regiment government
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,010
    Leon said:

    Moderately interesting to see in real time PB righties gradually inhabiting the mental landscape of Reform being in charge and them being fine with it. Usual suspects of course, and some not so usual, but no big surprises really.

    Did you miss the recent election, then?

    It was quite a big one. An actual by election, several mayoralties, lots of councils

    Think of it as a MASSIVE opinion poll. With about ten million people being asked their opinions. And the result? Reform are the most popular party in the UK/England by a distance, on 30% of the vote, with Labour and the Tories down at 20% and 15%

    Britain is now, politically, rather Reform-y. Reform are the most popular party in Britain. On a website devoted to politics, esp British politics, you would expect the commentary to reflect that, and it does

    PB is not a safe space for liberals it is a forum for opinions from left and right. There would be something sadly WRONG if PB was NOT reflecting the Reform-y state of the nation
    pb has always been surprisingly representative of the voting population as a whole, and it's actually remarkable how few Reformers there are on here.
    Actually, pb is probably more representative of the middle class voting population - which perhaps explains the discrepancy.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,701
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    The header confirms that Reform is NOTA.

    Immigration is not the story, or not the whole story. PBers arguing about small boats vs the Boriswave, or asylum seekers vs illegal immigrants, are getting hung up on the precise number on the side of a bus. It matters a bit but it's not really the point.

    Luke Tryl/MiC: their new voters are less ideologically motivated to them & more likely to say Reform support is because of dislike of other parties
    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3loistkxdcs2f

    ‘Dislike of other parties’ is pollster-speak for NOTA. Reform is NOTA.

    It's very simple: the mainstream parties get a grip on crime, law and order and immigration and all these fringe parties go away.

    If they don't, then they'll win instead.
    I'm not so sure. They will partially go away, but a proportion will just flit to the next fringe theory or issue.
    Oh my God.
    It's quite shocking how complacent the ultra liberals are.
    I mean, is it just fucking me?

    There's almost two dozen of them on here.

    I mean, FUCK ME.

    How dumb do you have to be?!
    I expect this is how the Roman elites acted during the end days.
    I don't want to facilitate the end days. Don't need that on my conscience.

    But this is how people are driven to Trump and Farage. Absolute vanity, pompousity and arrogance and absolutely refusing to listen or compromise.

    We've lost the art of engaging as a democracy, so people are just driven to make a very binary choice.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,534
    F*** me! The ultra liberal PB herd are out in force today.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,574

    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    The header confirms that Reform is NOTA.

    Immigration is not the story, or not the whole story. PBers arguing about small boats vs the Boriswave, or asylum seekers vs illegal immigrants, are getting hung up on the precise number on the side of a bus. It matters a bit but it's not really the point.

    Luke Tryl/MiC: their new voters are less ideologically motivated to them & more likely to say Reform support is because of dislike of other parties
    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3loistkxdcs2f

    ‘Dislike of other parties’ is pollster-speak for NOTA. Reform is NOTA.

    It's very simple: the mainstream parties get a grip on crime, law and order and immigration and all these fringe parties go away.

    If they don't, then they'll win instead.
    I'm not so sure. They will partially go away, but a proportion will just flit to the next fringe theory or issue.
    Oh my God.
    It's quite shocking how complacent the ultra liberals are.
    I mean, is it just fucking me?

    There's almost two dozen of them on here.

    I mean, FUCK ME.

    How dumb do you have to be?!
    I know you don't think much of my opinion but I agree with you that we are on a slippery slope to Reform UK.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,943
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Moderately interesting to see in real time PB righties gradually inhabiting the mental landscape of Reform being in charge and them being fine with it. Usual suspects of course, and some not so usual, but no big surprises really.

    Did you miss the recent election, then?

    It was quite a big one. An actual by election, several mayoralties, lots of councils

    Think of it as a MASSIVE opinion poll. With about ten million people being asked their opinions. And the result? Reform are the most popular party in the UK/England by a distance, on 30% of the vote, with Labour and the Tories down at 20% and 15%

    Britain is now, politically, rather Reform-y. Reform are the most popular party in Britain. On a website devoted to politics, esp British politics, you would expect the commentary to reflect that, and it does

    PB is not a safe space for liberals it is a forum for opinions from left and right. There would be something sadly WRONG if PB was NOT reflecting the Reform-y state of the nation
    pb has always been surprisingly representative of the voting population as a whole, and it's actually remarkable how few Reformers there are on here.
    Actually, pb is probably more representative of the middle class voting population - which perhaps explains the discrepancy.
    The one thing I am picking up on is a lot of the people I would regard as sane are now focusing on immigration
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,010
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    The header confirms that Reform is NOTA.

    Immigration is not the story, or not the whole story. PBers arguing about small boats vs the Boriswave, or asylum seekers vs illegal immigrants, are getting hung up on the precise number on the side of a bus. It matters a bit but it's not really the point.

    Luke Tryl/MiC: their new voters are less ideologically motivated to them & more likely to say Reform support is because of dislike of other parties
    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3loistkxdcs2f

    ‘Dislike of other parties’ is pollster-speak for NOTA. Reform is NOTA.

    It's very simple: the mainstream parties get a grip on crime, law and order and immigration and all these fringe parties go away.

    If they don't, then they'll win instead.
    I'm not so sure. They will partially go away, but a proportion will just flit to the next fringe theory or issue.
    Oh my God.
    It's quite shocking how complacent the ultra liberals are.
    I mean, is it just fucking me?

    There's almost two dozen of them on here.

    I mean, FUCK ME.

    How dumb do you have to be?!
    I expect this is how the Roman elites acted during the end days.
    "Actually, the plebs don't really mind that much about the Visigoth invasions, and those who do are just dumb racists."
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,100

    Cookie said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Casino_Royale in Gregg’s

    It’s also broken windows theory in action. With every shoplift tolerated, every ticket easily dodged, every tag of graffiti met with a shrug, the social contract frays. The law abiding citizens ask themselves - why the fuck am I paying? Am I the sucker here?

    Ditto dodgy asylum seekers in 4 star hotels as honest people spend years trying to get the right to remain

    Meanwhile tax payers are quietly enraged, and very high taxpayers simply leave

    This is the frog boiling of an entire nation and it will end with a reform government and then something worse if we don’t change course

    I think it might have been Barty who called out your 4* hotel lie last week, citing Copthorne who were undergoing difficult trading prior to COVID and latterly asylum. Whoever it was specified the requirements for a hotel to be 4* and explained that all the 4*edness had been stripped out of Copthorne locations for our asylum seeking friends.

    Yet you are still allowed to post nonsense unchallenged. What next? Quoting Andrew Tate's X account as source material. Oh wait, apologies, that was Nigel Farage.
    Good luck in going to the voters while saying “it WAS a four star hotel when we took it over and gave it to asylum seekers, but we closed the gym and they only get laundry done twice a week, and free heath care, and immediate dental work, and you’re paying for it all, and you can’t use the hotel. So it’s really only like a weird 3 star with a private hospital. That you are paying for. So that these men can wander around your town freaking you out. Vote for more of this!”
    I'm not enthusiastic about my tax pounds going to a series of failing hotel groups. The boats need to be stopped for safety issues as much as for anything else. I am simply calling out your lies (sorry about the unparliamentary language, but I'm not sure what else to call it) to elicit a reaction from certain fragile on this subject posters
    It's not really a lie, though is it? These are 4-star hotels. The fact that some of the facilities are unavailable doesn't massively change this unless you're, er, whichever body is responsible for awarding stars to hotels.
    Yes it is. They are no longer regarded as 4* so you and Leon suggesting they are is a mechanism to make a political point. Or in other words it's inflammatory bollocks.
    This is a ridiculous hill to die on. It is simply a fact that asylum seekers are being housed in four star hotels.

    Look at this one. It's a modern four star hotel that was refurbished in 2022: https://www.marriott.com/en-gb/hotels/bhxwd-delta-hotels-warwick/overview/

    It's currently unavailable to book and closed to the public because it's being used to house male asylum seekers under a government contract.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,773

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Downing Street rules out reversing cut to winter fuel payment" (£)

    https://www.ft.com/content/b518a33e-97e1-4bf6-844e-69acf2f5f2b7

    U-turning on the U-turn?
    Poo-pooing the poo poo.
    That’s how you lose a whole regiment government
    Obviously this is humorous but what did for Johnson in the end was people not being willing to go out and spin for him because they would be made into idiots when No 10 changed the story an hour later. I'd suggest Labour were testing the waters and have now rowed back. Not a good look - they need to start deciding what they want to do and sticking to it. Its a long time to go until the next election (probably) but its not actually that long. Time flies.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,591
    Cookie said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    The header confirms that Reform is NOTA.

    Immigration is not the story, or not the whole story. PBers arguing about small boats vs the Boriswave, or asylum seekers vs illegal immigrants, are getting hung up on the precise number on the side of a bus. It matters a bit but it's not really the point.

    Luke Tryl/MiC: their new voters are less ideologically motivated to them & more likely to say Reform support is because of dislike of other parties
    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3loistkxdcs2f

    ‘Dislike of other parties’ is pollster-speak for NOTA. Reform is NOTA.

    It's very simple: the mainstream parties get a grip on crime, law and order and immigration and all these fringe parties go away.

    If they don't, then they'll win instead.
    I'm not so sure. They will partially go away, but a proportion will just flit to the next fringe theory or issue.
    Oh my God.
    It's quite shocking how complacent the ultra liberals are.
    I mean, is it just fucking me?

    There's almost two dozen of them on here.

    I mean, FUCK ME.

    How dumb do you have to be?!
    I expect this is how the Roman elites acted during the end days.
    "Actually, the plebs don't really mind that much about the Visigoth invasions, and those who do are just dumb racists."
    That's not entirely fair, I've never accused Leon of being 'dumb'.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,001
    edited May 6

    MattW said:

    The header confirms that Reform is NOTA.

    Immigration is not the story, or not the whole story. PBers arguing about small boats vs the Boriswave, or asylum seekers vs illegal immigrants, are getting hung up on the precise number on the side of a bus. It matters a bit but it's not really the point.

    Luke Tryl/MiC: their new voters are less ideologically motivated to them & more likely to say Reform support is because of dislike of other parties
    https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3loistkxdcs2f

    ‘Dislike of other parties’ is pollster-speak for NOTA. Reform is NOTA.

    It's very simple: the mainstream parties get a grip on crime, law and order and immigration and all these fringe parties go away.

    If they don't, then they'll win instead.
    I'm not so sure. They will partially go away, but a proportion will just flit to the next fringe theory or issue.
    Oh my God.
    I think I made a fair description of how different factions within the Reform support base may react.

    Rather than question the silo where they have placed themselves, the answer grasped is the next thing being fed into the silo.

    If the Starmer Government cut immigration by 2/3 and NHS waiting lists by 1/2, there are those who rather than saying "good, progress", will pivot to "the globalists / uniparty / Liebour / LibLabCon would never do this; Starmer is an even bigger liar than we thought he was", or another line.

    That's imo just how fringe factions sometimes roll. It's also why imo "delivery" will not be enough to defeat Farage and Reform - it's necessary, but not sufficient. There's also an ideological battle to fight.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,534
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Casino_Royale in Gregg’s

    It’s also broken windows theory in action. With every shoplift tolerated, every ticket easily dodged, every tag of graffiti met with a shrug, the social contract frays. The law abiding citizens ask themselves - why the fuck am I paying? Am I the sucker here?

    Ditto dodgy asylum seekers in 4 star hotels as honest people spend years trying to get the right to remain

    Meanwhile tax payers are quietly enraged, and very high taxpayers simply leave

    This is the frog boiling of an entire nation and it will end with a reform government and then something worse if we don’t change course

    I think it might have been Barty who called out your 4* hotel lie last week, citing Copthorne who were undergoing difficult trading prior to COVID and latterly asylum. Whoever it was specified the requirements for a hotel to be 4* and explained that all the 4*edness had been stripped out of Copthorne locations for our asylum seeking friends.

    Yet you are still allowed to post nonsense unchallenged. What next? Quoting Andrew Tate's X account as source material. Oh wait, apologies, that was Nigel Farage.
    Good luck in going to the voters while saying “it WAS a four star hotel when we took it over and gave it to asylum seekers, but we closed the gym and they only get laundry done twice a week, and free heath care, and immediate dental work, and you’re paying for it all, and you can’t use the hotel. So it’s really only like a weird 3 star with a private hospital. That you are paying for. So that these men can wander around your town freaking you out. Vote for more of this!”
    I'm not enthusiastic about my tax pounds going to a series of failing hotel groups. The boats need to be stopped for safety issues as much as for anything else. I am simply calling out your lies (sorry about the unparliamentary language, but I'm not sure what else to call it) to elicit a reaction from certain fragile on this subject posters
    It's not really a lie, though is it? These are 4-star hotels. The fact that some of the facilities are unavailable doesn't massively change this unless you're, er, whichever body is responsible for awarding stars to hotels.
    The facilities are what makes a 4-star a 4-star hotel. If the facilities are unavailable, it ceases to be 4-stars.
    I really really really hope Labour campaign on this point,

    "You;re not paying to put asylum seekers in 4 star hotels! With Labour you're paying to put asylum seekers in hotels that WERE 4 star but the breakfast buffet is seriously reduced partly to house all the private dentists looking after the teeth of these young foreign men who shouldn't be here, you're paying for that instead"

    Reform won't know what's hit them. They'll probably lose all their deposits and poll 0.7% as the public realise the truth
    Basically you are discounting the truth for your radical Trumpian agenda. Are you actually Nigel Farage?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,368
    @Casino_Royale you said on the last thread shoplifting has increased by 14x in the last 10 years in the last thread.

    It's actually increased by 1.36x. A significant increase, but let's not get carried away. Overall theft is down 2%.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,365
    So today Starmer has * Checks notes *

    1) Ruled out a reversal of his single most electorally costly policy.
    2) Allowed Indians to undercut UK workers with his Modi deal.

    Economically they're both fine but politically disastrous.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,388

    Cookie said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Casino_Royale in Gregg’s

    It’s also broken windows theory in action. With every shoplift tolerated, every ticket easily dodged, every tag of graffiti met with a shrug, the social contract frays. The law abiding citizens ask themselves - why the fuck am I paying? Am I the sucker here?

    Ditto dodgy asylum seekers in 4 star hotels as honest people spend years trying to get the right to remain

    Meanwhile tax payers are quietly enraged, and very high taxpayers simply leave

    This is the frog boiling of an entire nation and it will end with a reform government and then something worse if we don’t change course

    I think it might have been Barty who called out your 4* hotel lie last week, citing Copthorne who were undergoing difficult trading prior to COVID and latterly asylum. Whoever it was specified the requirements for a hotel to be 4* and explained that all the 4*edness had been stripped out of Copthorne locations for our asylum seeking friends.

    Yet you are still allowed to post nonsense unchallenged. What next? Quoting Andrew Tate's X account as source material. Oh wait, apologies, that was Nigel Farage.
    Good luck in going to the voters while saying “it WAS a four star hotel when we took it over and gave it to asylum seekers, but we closed the gym and they only get laundry done twice a week, and free heath care, and immediate dental work, and you’re paying for it all, and you can’t use the hotel. So it’s really only like a weird 3 star with a private hospital. That you are paying for. So that these men can wander around your town freaking you out. Vote for more of this!”
    I'm not enthusiastic about my tax pounds going to a series of failing hotel groups. The boats need to be stopped for safety issues as much as for anything else. I am simply calling out your lies (sorry about the unparliamentary language, but I'm not sure what else to call it) to elicit a reaction from certain fragile on this subject posters
    It's not really a lie, though is it? These are 4-star hotels. The fact that some of the facilities are unavailable doesn't massively change this unless you're, er, whichever body is responsible for awarding stars to hotels.
    Yes it is. They are no longer regarded as 4* so you and Leon suggesting they are is a mechanism to make a political point. Or in other words it's inflammatory bollocks.
    Well, one of the reasons they are no longer regarded as 4 star hotels is because unlike normal "hotels" THEY ARE FUCKING CLOSED TO THE PUBLIC JUST SO WE CAN PUT UP TENS OF THOUSANDS OF YOUNG MALE OFTEN-ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS IN RELATIVE LUXURY AND WITH PRIVATE HEALTH CARE, ALL OF WHICH IS PAID FOR BY THE PUBLIC

    So, yes: to that extent it is true, they are no longer 4 star hotels, as we know them. And, again, I wish you the best of British luck as you campaign on this crucial distinction
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