politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories slump 5 while Greens jump to 11 in this week’s Ashcr
Greens hit their highest poll share ever in latest Ashcroft National Poll
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Peak green!0
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(oh, and "FIRST!")0
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Outlier Alert! Outlier Alert!
Greens on 11?!!!0 -
Ashcroft maintains its Gold Standard status
Con 29 (-5) Labour 28 (nc) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 15 (-1) Greens 11 (+3)
Neil, the Greens have hit double figures, for what I think is the first time ever.
The early discount offer is still available to you.
Also makes it inevitable the Greens will be in third place with Ipsos-Mori next month.
God bless the Quasi fascist, happiness destroying, economically illiterate Greens.0 -
Greens to overtake Kippers too in line with membership no.s0
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A contender for weirdest poll of the Parliament so far?
1) No party in the 30s.
2) Four parties in double figures and a fifth within one point of double figures.
3) The Conservatives and UKIP both dropping in the same poll.
The last time we saw such a green deluge was in the video of American Idiot.0 -
They have to include the Greens in the TV debates, surely!
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/556884375057739776/photo/10 -
29% - a mandate for government!0
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ENP 4.80
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The Ashcroft opinion polls really are batshit insane. There surely can't be THAT much volatility?
I'm wondering if it puts some slight doubt on his much-vaunted marginals polls as well, tbh.0 -
I think the only value in this poll is it confirms the Tories and Labour are neck and neck.
Other than that, ignore.0 -
Populus Greens 4% , this week's wildly variable Ashcroft 11% , Greens vote share in all council by elections since July just under 4% , this weeks Ashcroft poll belongs in the waste bin same as last weeks .0
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These are.............odd numbers.
I think you'd have to go back to 1981 to find both Conservative and Labour polling under 30%.0 -
GREEN DAY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ee_uujKuJMIantifrank said:A contender for weirdest poll of the Parliament so far?
1) No party in the 30s.
2) Four parties in double figures and a fifth within one point of double figures.
3) The Conservatives and UKIP both dropping in the same poll.
The last time we saw such a green deluge was in the video of American Idiot.0 -
fpt
Oxfam's executive director Winnie Byanyima is fronting this stuff.
Not sure how common the name is, but - from 2007 -
Kampala — THE United Nations Development Programme is investigating circumstances under which Ms Winnie Byanyima accessed UN benefits for her sister's child. Ms Byanyima, the director of the UNDP gender team based in New York City, is alleged to have declared her sister Edith's son, Tau Katungi, as her own child. Consequently, UNDP pays Katungi's school fees in the knowledge that he is the son of Ms Byanyima.
http://allafrica.com/stories/200709141084.html
As the world's richest 1% plainly just don't have enough to get by on, things are even worse than we thought.0 -
POEWAS
If each leader were an animal, what would they be? Cameron would be a fox, being smart and sleek – or, less charitably, “a giraffe, looking down on everybody”. Farage? A peacock, or a weasel. Clegg? “A Chihuahua in David Cameron’s handbag”. Miliband? Puzzlement. “Certainly not a predator… one of those animals that, when you go to the zoo, you’re not bothered whether you see it or not.”0 -
Any poll with the Tories ahead is broadly correct.
Everything else is just fluff.0 -
It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.0 -
A slump, but still in the lead. Very nice for the Greens.
FPT: Debate scenario: Cameron refuses to turn up. Gets empty-chaired. Miliband doesn't win, Farage does.
It *could* happen. It'd be interesting if it did.
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Obviously Tapestry was right: as the election comes into focus, fracking is pushing voters in leafy Tory shires to the Greens. Or something like that.0
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Surely this poll is more of a Basket Case?antifrank said:A contender for weirdest poll of the Parliament so far?
1) No party in the 30s.
2) Four parties in double figures and a fifth within one point of double figures.
3) The Conservatives and UKIP both dropping in the same poll.
The last time we saw such a green deluge was in the video of American Idiot.
Or is it a Boulevard of Broken Dreams for Dave/Ed/Nick/Nigel0 -
Todays LARGER (Lord Ashcroft Randomly Generated Election Results) EICIPM on 28%0
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Indeed: see from 1.50.Pulpstar said:GREEN DAY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ee_uujKuJMIantifrank said:A contender for weirdest poll of the Parliament so far?
1) No party in the 30s.
2) Four parties in double figures and a fifth within one point of double figures.
3) The Conservatives and UKIP both dropping in the same poll.
The last time we saw such a green deluge was in the video of American Idiot.
Best bit of Lord Ashcroft's commentary (from his focus group):
http://t.co/nVogpFmnNM
"If each leader were an animal, what would they be? Cameron would be a fox, being smart and sleek – or, less charitably, “a giraffe, looking down on everybody”. Farage? A peacock, or a weasel. Clegg? “A Chihuahua in David Cameron’s handbag”. Miliband? Puzzlement. “Certainly not a predator… one of those animals that, when you go to the zoo, you’re not bothered whether you see it or not.” "0 -
The Green membership has overtaken UKIP though..........................................
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FPT
Un peu en retard for that little wheeze, sensible as it may be. Murdo Fraser tried that on the blue-rinses and young Tories of Scotland. He got the chop and Ruth Davidson got the leadership.OblitusSumMe said:
The exception to this is, of course, when there are only two parties.OblitusSumMe said:It looks like it is pretty hard to receive ~40-45% of the vote and not win something like two-thirds or three-quarters of the seats. That's FPTP. Tactical voting is difficult, because the prospective tactical voter can be misled by the result last time, when underlying support has shifted so much, into casting an ineffective tactical vote.
Which is why I think the Conservatives may have missed a trick by not dissolving the Scottish branch of their party and relaunching the Unionist Party [of Scotland]. The only voting block larger than the SNPs "45%" is the Unionist "55%"...
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Oh If Paddy Power had only allowed me more than £3.22 on the greens at 25-1 in Norwich South...0
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Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?TOPPING said:It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.0 -
POEWASx2 - from the same Lord A update:
In the wake of the Paris attacks, people’s remarks about David Cameron often focused on the need for strong leadership in an uncertain world – a role that, from the candidates on offer, they could only imagine him fulfilling: “you need someone in authority who looks like they can cope with it”.
Perhaps the most notable feature of these groups of undecided voters was the absence of any enthusiasm for Labour – even among those who had voted for the party in 2010 – or any urgent desire for change. Nobody could recall any Labour promises, and the most positive thing anyone said about Ed Miliband was that “he talks sense on things like not privatising the NHS, but he’s not really on the ball, not in David Cameron’s league”. People could not say where he wanted to take Britain: “he hasn’t really made up his mind where he’s going… it’s as though he just wants to be a politician, and he’s faffing around to find some principles” – and, ominously, “it feels like he’s the interim Labour leader until the next one”.
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No surprise on Tory number. Was never that big a margin. Happily still ahead.
Cameron giving lots of oxygen to the Greens not looking such shit politics now is it?0 -
One of those yapping little dogs that keeps tugging at the leg of your trouser and you badly want to punt across the street.Scrapheap_as_was said:Miliband? Puzzlement. “Certainly not a predator… one of those animals that, when you go to the zoo, you’re not bothered whether you see it or not.”
Something like this http://garfield.com/game/punt-the-pooch
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PS Of course, once London loses control, the local interests start to become paramount. Just think of farmers in Scotland. Not at all happy that London takes EU money directed at them and spends it south of the border.Carnyx said:FPT
Un peu en retard for that little wheeze, sensible as it may be. Murdo Fraser tried that on the blue-rinses and young Tories of Scotland. He got the chop and Ruth Davidson got the leadership.OblitusSumMe said:
The exception to this is, of course, when there are only two parties.OblitusSumMe said:It looks like it is pretty hard to receive ~40-45% of the vote and not win something like two-thirds or three-quarters of the seats. That's FPTP. Tactical voting is difficult, because the prospective tactical voter can be misled by the result last time, when underlying support has shifted so much, into casting an ineffective tactical vote.
Which is why I think the Conservatives may have missed a trick by not dissolving the Scottish branch of their party and relaunching the Unionist Party [of Scotland]. The only voting block larger than the SNPs "45%" is the Unionist "55%"...
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No, single figures throughout 2014Neil said:@TSE Werent the Greens on 10% with one of the MORI measures in December? Thankfully I wasnt a sad enough child to be aware of any polling levels in the run up to / aftermath of the 1989 Euros. My offer remains open to you too.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#20150 -
The reds are in a panic.... with the blues only on 29%?
Owen Jones@OwenJones84·3 mins3 minutes ago
There’s a growing chance the Tories could scrape in on 7th May because Labour lost so much ground to the Greens. Time for radical action.
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Lots of lovely loin pumping stuff about David Cameron here....
...and the Tories slump 5.
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It's the Tories and UKIP who are down rather than Labour and the Lib DemsMarqueeMark said:
Cameron giving lots of oxygen to the Greens not looking such shit politics now is it?
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Green publicity & the pensioner bribe are smart plays, have to give credit to the Conservative machine where it's due.MarqueeMark said:No surprise on Tory number. Was never that big a margin. Happily still ahead.
Cameron giving lots of oxygen to the Greens not looking such shit politics now is it?0 -
That must be our idiot PM who "isn't very good at politics".isam said:
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?TOPPING said:It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.0 -
They were on 10% on the all giving a voting intention in December's Ipsos-MoriSunil_Prasannan said:
No, single figures throughout 2014Neil said:@TSE Werent the Greens on 10% with one of the MORI measures in December? Thankfully I wasnt a sad enough child to be aware of any polling levels in the run up to / aftermath of the 1989 Euros. My offer remains open to you too.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/5456090889112903680 -
Mr. Scrapheap, Ed Miliband - supply leader.
And yet, he could still win. The election's going to be very odd.0 -
Death-ray panda, surely?Indigo said:
One of those yapping little dogs that keeps tugging at the leg of your trouser and you badly want to punt across the street.Scrapheap_as_was said:Miliband? Puzzlement. “Certainly not a predator… one of those animals that, when you go to the zoo, you’re not bothered whether you see it or not.”
Something like this http://garfield.com/game/punt-the-pooch
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2010/9/27/1285624202609/28.09.2010-Steve-Bell-car-001.jpg0 -
Paddy Power now have Ed Miliband as being Odds Against being the Prime Minister after the general Election ..... wow!0
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Shush.Tissue_Price said:
That must be our idiot PM who "isn't very good at politics".isam said:
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?TOPPING said:It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.0 -
Those are the certain to vote measures - on the other one they were on 10%.Sunil_Prasannan said:
No, single figures throughout 2014Neil said:@TSE Werent the Greens on 10% with one of the MORI measures in December? Thankfully I wasnt a sad enough child to be aware of any polling levels in the run up to / aftermath of the 1989 Euros. My offer remains open to you too.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015
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Obviously this poll is Tories voting tactically to ensure the Greens are in the debates, to shaft Ed Miliband.0
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You are as mad as Sean T who proclaimed last weeks LARGER was picking first signs Electorate were finally coming to their senses and other polls with large Tory leads would follow.MarqueeMark said:No surprise on Tory number. Was never that big a margin. Happily still ahead.
Cameron giving lots of oxygen to the Greens not looking such shit politics now is it?
Empty chair PMs do not win GEs0 -
It's a safe left NOTA.isam said:
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?TOPPING said:It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.0 -
My twitter feed hasnt been this crazy since .. well, last week when 2,000+ people a day were joining. This poll is good news for giving the Green rising story new legs more than for being a sign that the parties will poll 11% across GB in May.0
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Very odd poll. Guess it just confirms the ongoing trend of Labour and Tories staying very tight. I was relatively confident of a Lab overall majority in early 2014, don't have a clue now.
Was in Nottingham this weekend in Nick Palmer's former constituency. Obviously somewhere Labour need to win to be on the right track come may. Was surprised to here how popular Anna Soubry seems to be locally, especially amongst some usually solid Labour voters i know. They all expect her to get back in next time.
Obviously that's only anecdotal evidence, but if Broxtowe doesn't fall Labour are stuffed.0 -
called Odie.....Indigo said:
One of those yapping little dogs that keeps tugging at the leg of your trouser and you badly want to punt across the street.Scrapheap_as_was said:Miliband? Puzzlement. “Certainly not a predator… one of those animals that, when you go to the zoo, you’re not bothered whether you see it or not.”
Something like this http://garfield.com/game/punt-the-pooch
It'll never catch on.0 -
I don't really like that kind of polticking though do you?Tissue_Price said:
That must be our idiot PM who "isn't very good at politics".isam said:
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?TOPPING said:It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.0 -
Not according to Paddy Power he isn't ..... no doubt you'll be putting your money where your mouth is.bigjohnowls said:Todays LARGER (Lord Ashcroft Randomly Generated Election Results) EICIPM on 28%
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It's the 2010 Lib Dems, of course.
In this poll Labour take just 17% (excluding don't knows), compared to the 14% that say they will vote Conservative, the 10% switching to UKIP and the 20% to the Greens.
Labour pick up more (net) direct swing voters from the Conservatives than they do (net of the Lib Dems switching to the Tories) from the Lib Dems. Maybe Ed is simply a centrist like his brother, taking votes from the Tories in the centre, rather than from the Lib Dems on the left...0 -
And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .isam said:
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?TOPPING said:It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.0 -
Neil said:
It's the Tories and UKIP who are down rather than Labour and the Lib DemsMarqueeMark said:
Cameron giving lots of oxygen to the Greens not looking such shit politics now is it?
The Tories were never 6% ahead. Every Tory admitted it was an outlier.Neil said:
It's the Tories and UKIP who are down rather than Labour and the Lib DemsMarqueeMark said:
Cameron giving lots of oxygen to the Greens not looking such shit politics now is it?
Looking forward to the direction of travel from Red to Green though. Labour 25% next month?
I really don't know what methodology His Lordship applies and the numbers do saw-tooth around, but his polling does seem to pick up the trends early, albeit the polling is a bit lumpy.
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Hmmm fair point.. what do you think causes this rise then?MarkSenior said:
And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .isam said:
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?TOPPING said:It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.0 -
Aside from the Cleggasm polls, this has to be the weirdest poll since 2004 (?) when the Guardian ICM poll had the Tories, Lab and Lib Dem all on 30%0
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But the effect on membership has seen them sail past the Lib Dems. That's going to have a real impact on council elections and then your beloved council by-elections up and down the country over time.MarkSenior said:
And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .isam said:
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?TOPPING said:It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.
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"All is fair in love and war"isam said:
I don't really like that kind of polticking though do you?Tissue_Price said:
That must be our idiot PM who "isn't very good at politics".isam said:
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?TOPPING said:It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.
"politics is war by other means"
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You managed to miss all the Blues for Palmer????????? If you are right you should be out betting on her, v good odds available.....AllyPally_Rob said:Very odd poll. Guess it just confirms the ongoing trend of Labour and Tories staying very tight. I was relatively confident of a Lab overall majority in early 2014, don't have a clue now.
Was in Nottingham this weekend in Nick Palmer's former constituency. Obviously somewhere Labour need to win to be on the right track come may. Was surprised to here how popular Anna Soubry seems to be locally, especially amongst some usually solid Labour voters i know. They all expect her to get back in next time.
Obviously that's only anecdotal evidence, but if Broxtowe doesn't fall Labour are stuffed.0 -
It will also have an effect in say Brighton Pavilion, when all those extra Green activists go out and campaign for Caroline Lucas.Neil said:
But the effect on membership has seen them sail past the Lib Dems. That's going to have a real impact on council elections and then your beloved council by-elections up and down the country over time.MarkSenior said:
And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .isam said:
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?TOPPING said:It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.
What odds is she now?0 -
Yebbut that doesn't countTheScreamingEagles said:
They were on 10% on the all giving a voting intention in December's Ipsos-MoriSunil_Prasannan said:
No, single figures throughout 2014Neil said:@TSE Werent the Greens on 10% with one of the MORI measures in December? Thankfully I wasnt a sad enough child to be aware of any polling levels in the run up to / aftermath of the 1989 Euros. My offer remains open to you too.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/545609088911290368
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MarqueeMark said:
No surprise on Tory number. Was never that big a margin. Happily still ahead.
Cameron giving lots of oxygen to the Greens not looking such shit politics now is it?
Correct and Labour becoming more lefty to satisfy the leak to both SNP and Green is hardly clever either.MarqueeMark said:No surprise on Tory number. Was never that big a margin. Happily still ahead.
Cameron giving lots of oxygen to the Greens not looking such shit politics now is it?
But then again are any of these polls believable?0 -
This is another thread dominated by squabbling over polls that might/might not be favourable to someones preferred option... and that may or may not be anywhere near the current mood/GE result
"An observation, not a criticism" as my Dad says to my Mum after dinner, but I think less threads micro analysing polls and more about individual betting heats or political philosophy would be beneficial, and result in less partisan nonsery0 -
That's very much at odds with Nick Palmer's own recent comments in which he appears to think he's home and dry in Broxtowe.AllyPally_Rob said:Very odd poll. Guess it just confirms the ongoing trend of Labour and Tories staying very tight. I was relatively confident of a Lab overall majority in early 2014, don't have a clue now.
Was in Nottingham this weekend in Nick Palmer's former constituency. Obviously somewhere Labour need to win to be on the right track come may. Was surprised to here how popular Anna Soubry seems to be locally, especially amongst some usually solid Labour voters i know. They all expect her to get back in next time.
Obviously that's only anecdotal evidence, but if Broxtowe doesn't fall Labour are stuffed.0 -
Still, credit for Ashcroft's scientific rigour for releasing a poll that seems so unexpected. I bet a lot of pollsters would have sat on it.TheScreamingEagles said:Aside from the Cleggasm polls, this has to be the weirdest poll since 2004 (?) when the Guardian ICM poll had the Tories, Lab and Lib Dem all on 30%
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Standing up for a minority's right to have their voice heard? All power to Dave. All the more so when they are a voice he doesn't instinctively agree with.isam said:
I don't really like that kind of polticking though do you?Tissue_Price said:
That must be our idiot PM who "isn't very good at politics".isam said:
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?TOPPING said:It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.0 -
"“Certainly not a predator… one of those animals that, when you go to the zoo, you’re not bothered whether you see it or not.” "
Ed Milliband, the Binturong.0 -
I prefer the anecdotal feedback and animal references don't you?isam said:This is another thread dominated by squabbling over polls that might/might not be favourable to someones preferred option...
"An observation, not a criticism" as my Dad says to my Mum after dinner, but I think less threads micro analysing polls and more about individual betting heats or political philosophy would be beneficial, and result in less partisan nonsery0 -
The volatility is probably about right, given the sample size, and random variation.Danny565 said:The Ashcroft opinion polls really are batshit insane. There surely can't be THAT much volatility?
I'm wondering if it puts some slight doubt on his much-vaunted marginals polls as well, tbh.
The low figures for Labour and Conservatives combined are what stand out - could be the Angus Reid of this Parliament.0 -
The Mansion tax, anti-privatisation, nationalising (some) railways, minimum wage rise, market intervention.. there's not much more Labour can cede to the Green type of voter to convince them if they're not already on board.
The Greens not having major party status and some tactical voting should help as the election gets closer. They are after all still averaging only around 6% as well..0 -
I dont think anyone can fairly accuse Nick of taking the election result in Broxtowe for granted.peter_from_putney said:
That's very much at odds with Nick Palmer's own recent comments in which he appears to think he's home and dry in Broxtowe.AllyPally_Rob said:Very odd poll. Guess it just confirms the ongoing trend of Labour and Tories staying very tight. I was relatively confident of a Lab overall majority in early 2014, don't have a clue now.
Was in Nottingham this weekend in Nick Palmer's former constituency. Obviously somewhere Labour need to win to be on the right track come may. Was surprised to here how popular Anna Soubry seems to be locally, especially amongst some usually solid Labour voters i know. They all expect her to get back in next time.
Obviously that's only anecdotal evidence, but if Broxtowe doesn't fall Labour are stuffed.
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Dream onNeil said:
But the effect on membership has seen them sail past the Lib Dems. That's going to have a real impact on council elections and then your beloved council by-elections up and down the country over time.MarkSenior said:
And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .isam said:
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?TOPPING said:It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.0 -
Given that Labour lagging by 20 points is great news for Labour being short by 1 must be the greatest polling news in the history of forever.0
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No point in microanalysing leads, I agree. But this poll will add weight to the Greens-in-the-debates argument, which is betting material both directly and indirectly.isam said:This is another thread dominated by squabbling over polls that might/might not be favourable to someones preferred option... and that may or may not be anywhere near the current mood/GE result
"An observation, not a criticism" as my Dad says to my Mum after dinner, but I think less threads micro analysing polls and more about individual betting heats or political philosophy would be beneficial, and result in less partisan nonsery0 -
Are there any Council elections this week? Seem a bit soon after the various public holidays.Neil said:
But the effect on membership has seen them sail past the Lib Dems. That's going to have a real impact on council elections and then your beloved council by-elections up and down the country over time.MarkSenior said:
And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .isam said:
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?TOPPING said:It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.0 -
Indeed already balls deep in LAB most seats which i believe will result in EICIPMpeter_from_putney said:
Not according to Paddy Power he isn't ..... no doubt you'll be putting your money where your mouth is.bigjohnowls said:Todays LARGER (Lord Ashcroft Randomly Generated Election Results) EICIPM on 28%
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No single poll should be taken too seriously. The more interesting its results, the more likely it is to be an outlier, one way or another.isam said:This is another thread dominated by squabbling over polls that might/might not be favourable to someones preferred option... and that may or may not be anywhere near the current mood/GE result
"An observation, not a criticism" as my Dad says to my Mum after dinner, but I think less threads micro analysing polls and more about individual betting heats or political philosophy would be beneficial, and result in less partisan nonsery0 -
Time OGH applies neutrality in his thread headings. "Tory slump"? Last week he picked lumps out of the Ashcroft poll claiming it was an outlier. Now he criticises it for having a realistic Tory lead.
The most devastating comment from the Focus group in the Ashcroft poll must be that Ed Bland is (so irrelevant) such that they couldn't even think of a zoo animal to compare him to but he would be one no-one would care about missing out. Loved the comment about him having the air of being interim leader, filling the gap until the next real Labour leader comes along.0 -
Before I reply, you are joking?Tissue_Price said:
Standing up for a minority's right to have their voice heard? All power to Dave. All the more so when they are a voice he doesn't instinctively agree with.isam said:
I don't really like that kind of polticking though do you?Tissue_Price said:
That must be our idiot PM who "isn't very good at politics".isam said:
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?TOPPING said:It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.0 -
LibDems lead over the Greens average 1.2% week-ending 11th JanMarkSenior said:
And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .isam said:
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?TOPPING said:It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.
LibDems lead over the Greens in ELBOW 1.2% week-ending 11th Jan
LibDems lead over the Greens average 0.9% week-ending 18th Jan
LibDems lead over the Greens ELBOW 0.8% week-ending 18th Jan.0 -
Peak Weasel
.@LordAshcroft focus group: PM likened to fox/giraffe; Farage peacock/ weasel; Clegg chihuahua; Ed M zoo animal 'noone wants to see'0 -
Along with Scotland, its the Yellow to Green via mid-term Red vote that will do for Ed. All those votes he thought he had in his back pocket seem to have spilled out - along with the keys to 10 Downing Street.OblitusSumMe said:It's the 2010 Lib Dems, of course.
In this poll Labour take just 17% (excluding don't knows), compared to the 14% that say they will vote Conservative, the 10% switching to UKIP and the 20% to the Greens.
Labour pick up more (net) direct swing voters from the Conservatives than they do (net of the Lib Dems switching to the Tories) from the Lib Dems. Maybe Ed is simply a centrist like his brother, taking votes from the Tories in the centre, rather than from the Lib Dems on the left...
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I am too, however I'm going in the other direction.bigjohnowls said:
Indeed already balls deep in LAB most seats which i believe will result in EICIPMpeter_from_putney said:
Not according to Paddy Power he isn't ..... no doubt you'll be putting your money where your mouth is.bigjohnowls said:Todays LARGER (Lord Ashcroft Randomly Generated Election Results) EICIPM on 28%
Not a pleasant image.0 -
Of course. I'm just gently pushing back against all the nonsense that's come out about DC being too scared to take on Farage etc. It's got nothing to do with being scared, it's to do with rational calculation.isam said:
Before I reply, you are joking?Tissue_Price said:
Standing up for a minority's right to have their voice heard? All power to Dave. All the more so when they are a voice he doesn't instinctively agree with.isam said:
I don't really like that kind of polticking though do you?Tissue_Price said:
That must be our idiot PM who "isn't very good at politics".isam said:
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?TOPPING said:It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.0 -
Dream on about what? The membership surge? That's happened. Council election results? Well, with 3 / 4 times as many members as the last time these seats were contested there will be more people to stand in those elections and more activists to do the work to win more seats. Council by-elections? They will follow on from that. Retaining Brighton Pavilion? It's better than an 8/1 shot.MarkSenior said:
Dream onNeil said:
But the effect on membership has seen them sail past the Lib Dems. That's going to have a real impact on council elections and then your beloved council by-elections up and down the country over time.MarkSenior said:
And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .isam said:
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?TOPPING said:It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.
Sweet dreams!
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Lord Ashcroft writes clearly and amusingly. I hope he is planning further writing ventures.0
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I thought last week Mike didn't say it was an outlier, just confusing when compared to the Populus poll a few hours earlier.Easterross said:Time OGH applies neutrality in his thread headings. "Tory slump"? Last week he picked lumps out of the Ashcroft poll claiming it was an outlier. Now he criticises it for having a realistic Tory lead.
The most devastating comment from the Focus group in the Ashcroft poll must be that Ed Bland is (so irrelevant) such that they couldn't even think of a zoo animal to compare him to but he would be one no-one would care about missing out. Loved the comment about him having the air of being interim leader, filling the gap until the next real Labour leader comes along.
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Not quite but nearly in one of his recent posts... something along the line of him now expecting to win by a few thousand I think wasn't it?Neil said:
I dont think anyone can fairly accuse Nick of taking the election result in Broxtowe for granted.peter_from_putney said:
That's very much at odds with Nick Palmer's own recent comments in which he appears to think he's home and dry in Broxtowe.AllyPally_Rob said:Very odd poll. Guess it just confirms the ongoing trend of Labour and Tories staying very tight. I was relatively confident of a Lab overall majority in early 2014, don't have a clue now.
Was in Nottingham this weekend in Nick Palmer's former constituency. Obviously somewhere Labour need to win to be on the right track come may. Was surprised to here how popular Anna Soubry seems to be locally, especially amongst some usually solid Labour voters i know. They all expect her to get back in next time.
Obviously that's only anecdotal evidence, but if Broxtowe doesn't fall Labour are stuffed.0 -
Populus hasn't given the unweighted Green figure in it's tables.MarkSenior said:
And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .isam said:
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?TOPPING said:It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.
They had 89 Green "identifiers", downweighted to 41, and 54 weighted respondees who said they would vote Green - Populus' methodology certainly normally dampens UKIP, wonder if the same may be happening with the Greens.0 -
This latest Lord Ashcroft poll is ridiculous! So where has this 5% drop in the Tory vote gone to then? UKIP are also down 1% and Labour stay still. It hasn't gone to the Greens. Ashcroft polls do not feel right at all!!!0
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You could lose that bet and Ed could still be PM y'know ;pbigjohnowls said:
Indeed already balls deep in LAB most seats which i believe will result in EICIPMpeter_from_putney said:
Not according to Paddy Power he isn't ..... no doubt you'll be putting your money where your mouth is.bigjohnowls said:Todays LARGER (Lord Ashcroft Randomly Generated Election Results) EICIPM on 28%
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Mike Smithson: "Tories slump 5"BenM said:
...and the Tories slump 5.
Have you and OGH ever been in the same room together?
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What about Natalie Bennett?TGOHF said:Peak Weasel
.@LordAshcroft focus group: PM likened to fox/giraffe; Farage peacock/ weasel; Clegg chihuahua; Ed M zoo animal 'noone wants to see'0 -
Fascinating. Doctor.
Are you big or small. Watch everyone and everything. Those with brains do. V Try much higher as he as harder. E0 -
Greens at 6% in today's Populus.MarkSenior said:
And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .isam said:
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?TOPPING said:It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.0 -
It's the anecdotal evidence which suggests to some of us a 1992 result looks more likely. Remember a few weeks ago Nick Palmer tried to dismiss a 5% Labour to Tory by-election swing in a ward in Broxtowe by saying it was the safest Tory ward.AllyPally_Rob said:Very odd poll. Guess it just confirms the ongoing trend of Labour and Tories staying very tight. I was relatively confident of a Lab overall majority in early 2014, don't have a clue now.
Was in Nottingham this weekend in Nick Palmer's former constituency. Obviously somewhere Labour need to win to be on the right track come may. Was surprised to here how popular Anna Soubry seems to be locally, especially amongst some usually solid Labour voters i know. They all expect her to get back in next time.
Obviously that's only anecdotal evidence, but if Broxtowe doesn't fall Labour are stuffed.
If I had spare cash I would be putting it on the Tories taking a series of Labour marginals starting with Southampton Itchen and Ed Balls seat.
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So you'll be using the 8-1 winnings from Brighton to pay TSE ?Neil said:
Dream on about what? The membership surge? That's happened. Council election results? Well, with 3 / 4 times as many members as the last time these seats were contested there will be more people to stand in those elections and more activists to do the work to win more seats. Council by-elections? They will follow on from that. Retaining Brighton Pavilion? It's better than an 8/1 shot.MarkSenior said:
Dream onNeil said:
But the effect on membership has seen them sail past the Lib Dems. That's going to have a real impact on council elections and then your beloved council by-elections up and down the country over time.MarkSenior said:
And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .isam said:
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?TOPPING said:It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.
Sweet dreams!0
