This is another thread dominated by squabbling over polls that might/might not be favourable to someones preferred option... and that may or may not be anywhere near the current mood/GE result
"An observation, not a criticism" as my Dad says to my Mum after dinner, but I think less threads micro analysing polls and more about individual betting heats or political philosophy would be beneficial, and result in less partisan nonsery
No single poll should be taken too seriously. The more interesting its results, the more likely it is to be an outlier, one way or another.
Right - the fact that this poll is so entertaining for having the Greens on 11% is a clear sign that the Greens won't poll 11% in May.
The question we should all be asking is whether all these polls are really just confusing the issue more. I am not sure I see the value! What was wrong with monthly polls!!!?
Very odd poll. Guess it just confirms the ongoing trend of Labour and Tories staying very tight. I was relatively confident of a Lab overall majority in early 2014, don't have a clue now.
Was in Nottingham this weekend in Nick Palmer's former constituency. Obviously somewhere Labour need to win to be on the right track come may. Was surprised to here how popular Anna Soubry seems to be locally, especially amongst some usually solid Labour voters i know. They all expect her to get back in next time.
Obviously that's only anecdotal evidence, but if Broxtowe doesn't fall Labour are stuffed.
That's very much at odds with Nick Palmer's own recent comments in which he appears to think he's home and dry in Broxtowe.
I dont think anyone can fairly accuse Nick of taking the election result in Broxtowe for granted.
Not quite but nearly in one of his recent posts... something along the line of him now expecting to win by a few thousand I think wasn't it?
The people I was speaking to were Teachers/Social Workers - should be classic Lab voters, but were all very complimentary about Soubry's work as a constituency MP (something Mr Palmer used to get high marks for too i believe). So I was surprised at their comments and belief she would win next time.
It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .
But the effect on membership has seen them sail past the Lib Dems. That's going to have a real impact on council elections and then your beloved council by-elections up and down the country over time.
Dream on
Dream on about what? The membership surge? That's happened. Council election results? Well, with 3 / 4 times as many members as the last time these seats were contested there will be more people to stand in those elections and more activists to do the work to win more seats. Council by-elections? They will follow on from that. Retaining Brighton Pavilion? It's better than an 8/1 shot.
Sweet dreams!
So you'll be using the 8-1 winnings from Brighton to pay TSE ?
I'll be contributing both sets of winnings to the PB Tory cocktail fund (though I may reserve some of it to pay for John O's return ticket from wherever he ends up after the party).
"We all have to speak out now. The time for qualification is over. We must rage against the fear. Scream ferociously “this will not stand”. That in 2015 we will not sit by whilst out neighbours feel scared to go to their shops, or take their children to school, or go to their place of worship. We need to say: “They came for the Jews. And I spoke out. Because I am not a Jew”. "
It will be interesting to see the January ICM. Their December poll had the Lib Dems on almost three times as much support as the Greens, leading by 14% to 5%.
It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .
It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .
But the effect on membership has seen them sail past the Lib Dems. That's going to have a real impact on council elections and then your beloved council by-elections up and down the country over time.
Dream on
Dream on about what? The membership surge? That's happened. Council election results? Well, with 3 / 4 times as many members as the last time these seats were contested there will be more people to stand in those elections and more activists to do the work to win more seats. Council by-elections? They will follow on from that. Retaining Brighton Pavilion? It's better than an 8/1 shot.
Sweet dreams!
So you'll be using the 8-1 winnings from Brighton to pay TSE ?
I'll be contributing both sets of winnings to the PB Tory cocktail fund (though I may reserve some of it to pay for John O's return ticket from wherever he ends up after the party).
First Class from the Whitsunday Islands via Watford Junction
It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .
I haven't added Populus or Ashcroft yet but I calculate a 100% probability that the LD lead over the Greens for all of January's polls up the weekend is 1.05%, whether you use simple average or the ELBOW aggregate.
I don't think the great British public are taking their politics very seriously at the moment. Maybe as about as seriously as our "top" politicians deserve though.
A lot of this is Miliband's fault of course. He has lost half the SLAB vote to the SNP and now he seems to have lost a significant chunk of the dafty left vote (sorry Neil, no offence) to the Greens. Who can he lose next?
The tories are frankly pretty unappealing at the moment. They have developed a range of distinctive non coalition policies that do absolutely nothing for centre right tories like me but still manage to hack off the Kippers at the same time. So we have yet more bribes for rich pensioners with savings to invest, we have promises of tax cuts with no credibility, we have a seriously incoherent internet security policy that I really can't make head nor tail of and we have a party promising to tear itself in 2 within 18 months of the election to argue about the EU (again).
The fact that they are so obviously the most competent option despite all this nonsense really shows why the public have despaired and lent their votes all over the shop.
Or Lord Ashcroft's polling is the greatest waste of money since Gordon Brown decided to increase public "investment". Hard to tell really.
"We all have to speak out now. The time for qualification is over. We must rage against the fear. Scream ferociously “this will not stand”. That in 2015 we will not sit by whilst out neighbours feel scared to go to their shops, or take their children to school, or go to their place of worship. We need to say: “They came for the Jews. And I spoke out. Because I am not a Jew”. "
Yes - very good. What took him so long to realise this, though? There have been guards outside synagogues for the last decade. He need only have asked his mother - I'm talking about her constituency.
The terrorists in Toulouse targeted a Jewish school; the ones in Mumbai targeted the only tiny synagogue there; the terrorists in Belgium last year also targeted Jews; some people here a few years ago were charged (and, I believe, convicted) of preparing attacks on Jewish targets in Manchester. There's been plenty of evidence - for those with eyes to see.
I don't think the great British public are taking their politics very seriously at the moment. Maybe as about as seriously as our "top" politicians deserve though.
A lot of this is Miliband's fault of course. He has lost half the SLAB vote to the SNP and now he seems to have lost a significant chunk of the dafty left vote (sorry Neil, no offence) to the Greens. Who can he lose next?
The tories are frankly pretty unappealing at the moment. They have developed a range of distinctive non coalition policies that do absolutely nothing for centre right tories like me but still manage to hack off the Kippers at the same time. So we have yet more bribes for rich pensioners with savings to invest, we have promises of tax cuts with no credibility, we have a seriously incoherent internet security policy that I really can't make head nor tail of and we have a party promising to tear itself in 2 within 18 months of the election to argue about the EU (again).
The fact that they are so obviously the most competent option despite all this nonsense really shows why the public have despaired and lent their votes all over the shop.
Or Lord Ashcroft's polling is the greatest waste of money since Gordon Brown decided to increase public "investment". Hard to tell really.
I worked out that Lord Ashcroft has spent £1.8million on marginal polls this parliament and close to £400,000 on National polling so far in this parliament.
It will be interesting to see the January ICM. Their December poll had the Lib Dems on almost three times as much support as the Greens, leading by 14% to 5%.
If the Greens are level with the yellow peril on ICM's methodology then Neil has done his money.
It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .
The tories are frankly pretty unappealing at the moment. They have developed a range of distinctive non coalition policies that do absolutely nothing for centre right tories like me but still manage to hack off the Kippers at the same time. So we have yet more bribes for rich pensioners with savings to invest, we have promises of tax cuts with no credibility, we have a seriously incoherent internet security policy that I really can't make head nor tail of and we have a party promising to tear itself in 2 within 18 months of the election to argue about the EU (again).
It really shouldn't be hard to forge a policy platform that can attract TSE and Sean Fear. But the Tories can't seem to do it. How's that for "competency"? Also see May's bungling at the Home Office.
I don't think the great British public are taking their politics very seriously at the moment. Maybe as about as seriously as our "top" politicians deserve though.
A lot of this is Miliband's fault of course. He has lost half the SLAB vote to the SNP and now he seems to have lost a significant chunk of the dafty left vote (sorry Neil, no offence) to the Greens. Who can he lose next?
The tories are frankly pretty unappealing at the moment. They have developed a range of distinctive non coalition policies that do absolutely nothing for centre right tories like me but still manage to hack off the Kippers at the same time. So we have yet more bribes for rich pensioners with savings to invest, we have promises of tax cuts with no credibility, we have a seriously incoherent internet security policy that I really can't make head nor tail of and we have a party promising to tear itself in 2 within 18 months of the election to argue about the EU (again).
The fact that they are so obviously the most competent option despite all this nonsense really shows why the public have despaired and lent their votes all over the shop.
Or Lord Ashcroft's polling is the greatest waste of money since Gordon Brown decided to increase public "investment". Hard to tell really.
I worked out that Lord Ashcroft has spent £1.8million on marginal polls this parliament and close to £400,000 on National polling so far in this parliament.
It's good to see the British services sector supported in this way.
The tories are frankly pretty unappealing at the moment. They have developed a range of distinctive non coalition policies that do absolutely nothing for centre right tories like me but still manage to hack off the Kippers at the same time. So we have yet more bribes for rich pensioners with savings to invest, we have promises of tax cuts with no credibility, we have a seriously incoherent internet security policy that I really can't make head nor tail of and we have a party promising to tear itself in 2 within 18 months of the election to argue about the EU (again).
It really shouldn't be hard to forge a policy platform that can attract TSE and Sean Fear. But the Tories can't seem to do it. How's that for "competency"? Also see May's bungling at the Home Office.
When I last spoke to Sean he was planning to vote Tory.
It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .
The tories are frankly pretty unappealing at the moment. They have developed a range of distinctive non coalition policies that do absolutely nothing for centre right tories like me but still manage to hack off the Kippers at the same time. So we have yet more bribes for rich pensioners with savings to invest, we have promises of tax cuts with no credibility, we have a seriously incoherent internet security policy that I really can't make head nor tail of and we have a party promising to tear itself in 2 within 18 months of the election to argue about the EU (again).
It really shouldn't be hard to forge a policy platform that can attract TSE and Sean Fear. But the Tories can't seem to do it. How's that for "competency"? Also see May's bungling at the Home Office.
When I last spoke to Sean he was planning to vote Tory.
Has he changed his mind ? Genuine question.
I thought he was canvassing for UKIP, but happy to be corrected.
The tories are frankly pretty unappealing at the moment. They have developed a range of distinctive non coalition policies that do absolutely nothing for centre right tories like me but still manage to hack off the Kippers at the same time. So we have yet more bribes for rich pensioners with savings to invest, we have promises of tax cuts with no credibility, we have a seriously incoherent internet security policy that I really can't make head nor tail of and we have a party promising to tear itself in 2 within 18 months of the election to argue about the EU (again).
It really shouldn't be hard to forge a policy platform that can attract TSE and Sean Fear. But the Tories can't seem to do it. How's that for "competency"? Also see May's bungling at the Home Office.
When I last spoke to Sean he was planning to vote Tory.
Has he changed his mind ? Genuine question.
If he was still living in Luton South is what he has said hitherto.
It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .
Start asking The Greens about their plans for car use, car ownership, oil companies, energy firms and work out the implications for families, then watch their support go...down.
The Mansion tax, anti-privatisation, nationalising (some) railways, minimum wage rise, market intervention.. there's not much more Labour can cede to the Green type of voter to convince them if they're not already on board.
How about not signing up to economic/spending plans which are more right-wing than the 60%+ of the public who don't want more spending cuts?
I don't think the great British public are taking their politics very seriously at the moment. Maybe as about as seriously as our "top" politicians deserve though.
A lot of this is Miliband's fault of course. He has lost half the SLAB vote to the SNP and now he seems to have lost a significant chunk of the dafty left vote (sorry Neil, no offence) to the Greens. Who can he lose next?
The tories are frankly pretty unappealing at the moment. They have developed a range of distinctive non coalition policies that do absolutely nothing for centre right tories like me but still manage to hack off the Kippers at the same time. So we have yet more bribes for rich pensioners with savings to invest, we have promises of tax cuts with no credibility, we have a seriously incoherent internet security policy that I really can't make head nor tail of and we have a party promising to tear itself in 2 within 18 months of the election to argue about the EU (again).
The fact that they are so obviously the most competent option despite all this nonsense really shows why the public have despaired and lent their votes all over the shop.
Or Lord Ashcroft's polling is the greatest waste of money since Gordon Brown decided to increase public "investment". Hard to tell really.
I worked out that Lord Ashcroft has spent £1.8million on marginal polls this parliament and close to £400,000 on National polling so far in this parliament.
It's good to see the British services sector supported in this way.
He's not finished yet.
If he meets expectation he'll have spent close to £5million on polling this parliament.
It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .
The tories are frankly pretty unappealing at the moment. They have developed a range of distinctive non coalition policies that do absolutely nothing for centre right tories like me but still manage to hack off the Kippers at the same time. So we have yet more bribes for rich pensioners with savings to invest, we have promises of tax cuts with no credibility, we have a seriously incoherent internet security policy that I really can't make head nor tail of and we have a party promising to tear itself in 2 within 18 months of the election to argue about the EU (again).
It really shouldn't be hard to forge a policy platform that can attract TSE and Sean Fear. But the Tories can't seem to do it. How's that for "competency"? Also see May's bungling at the Home Office.
When I last spoke to Sean he was planning to vote Tory.
Has he changed his mind ? Genuine question.
I thought he was canvassing for UKIP, but happy to be corrected.
It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .
This is another thread dominated by squabbling over polls that might/might not be favourable to someones preferred option...
"An observation, not a criticism" as my Dad says to my Mum after dinner, but I think less threads micro analysing polls and more about individual betting heats or political philosophy would be beneficial, and result in less partisan nonsery
I prefer the anecdotal feedback and animal references don't you?
Start asking The Greens about their plans for car use, car ownership, oil companies, energy firms and work out the implications for families, then watch their support go...down.
You left out our plans for taking candy from babies.
"We all have to speak out now. The time for qualification is over. We must rage against the fear. Scream ferociously “this will not stand”. That in 2015 we will not sit by whilst out neighbours feel scared to go to their shops, or take their children to school, or go to their place of worship. We need to say: “They came for the Jews. And I spoke out. Because I am not a Jew”. "
Yes - very good. What took him so long to realise this, though? There have been guards outside synagogues for the last decade. He need only have asked his mother - I'm talking about her constituency.
The terrorists in Toulouse targeted a Jewish school; the ones in Mumbai targeted the only tiny synagogue there; the terrorists in Belgium last year also targeted Jews; some people here a few years ago were charged (and, I believe, convicted) of preparing attacks on Jewish targets in Manchester. There's been plenty of evidence - for those with eyes to see.
This is the first time I knew Dan Hodges is the son of Glenda Jackson.
By the way I predicted that the Ashcroft poll would have the major parties (I know, out of date terminology but historical references make it clear who I mean) would be within 1 per cent of each other. I am so rarely right that I thought I should draw attention to this.
The tories are frankly pretty unappealing at the moment. They have developed a range of distinctive non coalition policies that do absolutely nothing for centre right tories like me but still manage to hack off the Kippers at the same time. So we have yet more bribes for rich pensioners with savings to invest, we have promises of tax cuts with no credibility, we have a seriously incoherent internet security policy that I really can't make head nor tail of and we have a party promising to tear itself in 2 within 18 months of the election to argue about the EU (again).
It really shouldn't be hard to forge a policy platform that can attract TSE and Sean Fear. But the Tories can't seem to do it. How's that for "competency"? Also see May's bungling at the Home Office.
Here's the thing: let's say David Cameron came out with a rational policy on encryption and on civil liberties. The Daily Mail would crucify him: David Cameron is - to use SeanT's words - "a useful idiot" who isn't standing up against the terrorists.
You know that's true, I know that's true. We all know that the vast majority of people think the government should be doing more to monitor internet communication to catch suspected terrorists. The fact that it is completely ineffectual is irrelevant to the debate.
The fact is that the right has fissured in the UK, and it is split between social conservatives (and as a secondary, those who hate the EU), and social liberals. Paul_Mid_Beds, who I have enormous respect for, is a classic example of the kind of Conservative who has left because he regards the party as too socially liberal. TSE is a classic example of the kind of person who would leave if the party because socially conservative.
I don't see the split as healing; perhaps the only way it 'might' is if the right wing of the Liberal Democrats (David Laws, Danny Alexander, Nick Clegg, etc.) and the socially liberal part off the Conservative Party were to merge. And if the left wing of the LibDems went off to join Labour (Vince, Farron, etc). In this way you'd lose one party out of the 4 (or maybe 5).
It looks like it is pretty hard to receive ~40-45% of the vote and not win something like two-thirds or three-quarters of the seats. That's FPTP. Tactical voting is difficult, because the prospective tactical voter can be misled by the result last time, when underlying support has shifted so much, into casting an ineffective tactical vote.
The exception to this is, of course, when there are only two parties.
Which is why I think the Conservatives may have missed a trick by not dissolving the Scottish branch of their party and relaunching the Unionist Party [of Scotland]. The only voting block larger than the SNPs "45%" is the Unionist "55%"...
Un peu en retard for that little wheeze, sensible as it may be. Murdo Fraser tried that on the blue-rinses and young Tories of Scotland. He got the chop and Ruth Davidson got the leadership.
They prefer a London sock puppet , means they cannot upset the applecart.
Start asking The Greens about their plans for car use, car ownership, oil companies, energy firms and work out the implications for families, then watch their support go...down.
You left out our plans for taking candy from babies.
Now Neil, you are exaggerating. There is no Green policy to take candy from babies.
Regulate it, limit its distribution, question the parental authority of those foolish enough to buy it with intent to supply to said babies, require the sugar content to be reduced (and manufactured from UK grown sugar beet natch) and the imposition of minimum height requirements for shelves bearing it, yes, but they wouldn't actually take it.
I don't think the great British public are taking their politics very seriously at the moment. Maybe as about as seriously as our "top" politicians deserve though.
A lot of this is Miliband's fault of course. He has lost half the SLAB vote to the SNP and now he seems to have lost a significant chunk of the dafty left vote (sorry Neil, no offence) to the Greens. Who can he lose next?
The tories are frankly pretty unappealing at the moment. They have developed a range of distinctive non coalition policies that do absolutely nothing for centre right tories like me but still manage to hack off the Kippers at the same time. So we have yet more bribes for rich pensioners with savings to invest, we have promises of tax cuts with no credibility, we have a seriously incoherent internet security policy that I really can't make head nor tail of and we have a party promising to tear itself in 2 within 18 months of the election to argue about the EU (again).
The fact that they are so obviously the most competent option despite all this nonsense really shows why the public have despaired and lent their votes all over the shop.
Or Lord Ashcroft's polling is the greatest waste of money since Gordon Brown decided to increase public "investment". Hard to tell really.
I worked out that Lord Ashcroft has spent £1.8million on marginal polls this parliament and close to £400,000 on National polling so far in this parliament.
It's good to see the British services sector supported in this way.
He's not finished yet.
If he meets expectation he'll have spent close to £5million on polling this parliament.
Makes Clegg, Farage and Miliband look cowardly and Cameron seem fair.
Except those three haven't opposed the Greens being included, and say it's the decision of the broadcasters. The only one running from the debates is Cameron.
"We all have to speak out now. The time for qualification is over. We must rage against the fear. Scream ferociously “this will not stand”. That in 2015 we will not sit by whilst out neighbours feel scared to go to their shops, or take their children to school, or go to their place of worship. We need to say: “They came for the Jews. And I spoke out. Because I am not a Jew”. "
Yes - very good. What took him so long to realise this, though? There have been guards outside synagogues for the last decade. He need only have asked his mother - I'm talking about her constituency.
The terrorists in Toulouse targeted a Jewish school; the ones in Mumbai targeted the only tiny synagogue there; the terrorists in Belgium last year also targeted Jews; some people here a few years ago were charged (and, I believe, convicted) of preparing attacks on Jewish targets in Manchester. There's been plenty of evidence - for those with eyes to see.
Israel just murdered several Lebanese Hezbollah fighters.
By the way I predicted that the Ashcroft poll would have the major parties (I know, out of date terminology but historical references make it clear who I mean) would be within 1 per cent of each other. I am so rarely right that I thought I should draw attention to this.
Can you guess the next party that is going to slump/jump 5% in the next Ashcroft poll?
It looks like it is pretty hard to receive ~40-45% of the vote and not win something like two-thirds or three-quarters of the seats. That's FPTP. Tactical voting is difficult, because the prospective tactical voter can be misled by the result last time, when underlying support has shifted so much, into casting an ineffective tactical vote.
The exception to this is, of course, when there are only two parties.
Which is why I think the Conservatives may have missed a trick by not dissolving the Scottish branch of their party and relaunching the Unionist Party [of Scotland]. The only voting block larger than the SNPs "45%" is the Unionist "55%"...
Un peu en retard for that little wheeze, sensible as it may be. Murdo Fraser tried that on the blue-rinses and young Tories of Scotland. He got the chop and Ruth Davidson got the leadership.
They prefer a London sock puppet , means they cannot upset the applecart.
II was just thinking some more about Oblitus's comment, in the light of the common Bavarian comparison which some wistful Tories on PB like to make, and am inclined to believe that it would only work when there is a true Federal system.
The issue is, incidentally, also highly relevant to SLAB and what Mr Murphy appears to be trying to show, and what he will be allowed to do by Mr Miliband (not necessarily the same thing at all).
With an MoE of 3% Greens at 11% might just as easily be Greens at 8%. The last time it was 6% that is also within MoE of 8%.
Its all MoE stuff still, its just looks impressive on small parties.
You still do not understand MofE Maths for opinion polling do you . The 3% MofE refers to a party polling around 40% . For a party polling at around 10% the MofE is around 1.2% much lower than 3% .
It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .
Well, the party ID weighting reduces the number of Green identifiers from 89 to 41. In table 2 (all respondents) the Greens have 54. So, if you assume that all of the 89 said they would vote Green, and that the other Green respondents to the poll were not significantly weighted, you would come up with a figure of 102 Green respondents.
Excluding would not vote/don't know that would be just over 7% of the sample - so Ashcroft is still somehow finding many more Greens in his sample, consistent with the Ashcroft being an outlier with a randomly Green-heavy sample.
By the way I predicted that the Ashcroft poll would have the major parties (I know, out of date terminology but historical references make it clear who I mean) would be within 1 per cent of each other. I am so rarely right that I thought I should draw attention to this.
Can you guess the next party that is going to slump/jump 5% in the next Ashcroft poll?
So you think it was a fluke, right? So do I tbh.
I note others are up 3 to 9. Given that most of the traditional others are now mainstream parties this seems fairly remarkable. I suspect the Scottish sub samples for this one are going to make the previous thread look a bit off.
By the way I predicted that the Ashcroft poll would have the major parties (I know, out of date terminology but historical references make it clear who I mean) would be within 1 per cent of each other. I am so rarely right that I thought I should draw attention to this.
Can you guess the next party that is going to slump/jump 5% in the next Ashcroft poll?
The tories are frankly pretty unappealing at the moment. They have developed a range of distinctive non coalition policies that do absolutely nothing for centre right tories like me but still manage to hack off the Kippers at the same time. So we have yet more bribes for rich pensioners with savings to invest, we have promises of tax cuts with no credibility, we have a seriously incoherent internet security policy that I really can't make head nor tail of and we have a party promising to tear itself in 2 within 18 months of the election to argue about the EU (again).
It really shouldn't be hard to forge a policy platform that can attract TSE and Sean Fear. But the Tories can't seem to do it. How's that for "competency"? Also see May's bungling at the Home Office.
Or me. But every time I start to seriously reconsider voting Conservative the party and its supporters do everything possible to put me off.
The tories are frankly pretty unappealing at the moment. They have developed a range of distinctive non coalition policies that do absolutely nothing for centre right tories like me but still manage to hack off the Kippers at the same time. So we have yet more bribes for rich pensioners with savings to invest, we have promises of tax cuts with no credibility, we have a seriously incoherent internet security policy that I really can't make head nor tail of and we have a party promising to tear itself in 2 within 18 months of the election to argue about the EU (again).
It really shouldn't be hard to forge a policy platform that can attract TSE and Sean Fear. But the Tories can't seem to do it. How's that for "competency"? Also see May's bungling at the Home Office.
Here's the thing: let's say David Cameron came out with a rational policy on encryption and on civil liberties. The Daily Mail would crucify him: David Cameron is - to use SeanT's words - "a useful idiot" who isn't standing up against the terrorists.
You know that's true, I know that's true. We all know that the vast majority of people think the government should be doing more to monitor internet communication to catch suspected terrorists. The fact that it is completely ineffectual is irrelevant to the debate.
But they don't need to suddenly become Ron Paul. It's perfectly possible to give the Mail enough red meat (longer sentences for terrorists, closing down schools spreading down extremism etc) in a manner that's also rational.
The fact is that the right has fissured in the UK, and it is split between social conservatives (and as a secondary, those who hate the EU), and social liberals. Paul_Mid_Beds, who I have enormous respect for, is a classic example of the kind of Conservative who has left because he regards the party as too socially liberal. TSE is a classic example of the kind of person who would leave if the party because socially conservative.
But would TSE really leave if the Tories said they were demanding an emergency brake on EU immigration? Would he leave if they brought back the primary purpose rule? I don't think the Tories need to go out and campaign on an across the board socially conservative model. But they need to strike a balance, and they've failed to do that.
The most startling thing about how well the Greens are doing is that they're doing this with a leader who makes Ed Miliband look sparkling with charisma. Just imagine how well they'd be doing if Caroline Lucas was still in charge.
"We all have to speak out now. The time for qualification is over. We must rage against the fear. Scream ferociously “this will not stand”. That in 2015 we will not sit by whilst out neighbours feel scared to go to their shops, or take their children to school, or go to their place of worship. We need to say: “They came for the Jews. And I spoke out. Because I am not a Jew”. "
Yes - very good. What took him so long to realise this, though? There have been guards outside synagogues for the last decade. He need only have asked his mother - I'm talking about her constituency.
The terrorists in Toulouse targeted a Jewish school; the ones in Mumbai targeted the only tiny synagogue there; the terrorists in Belgium last year also targeted Jews; some people here a few years ago were charged (and, I believe, convicted) of preparing attacks on Jewish targets in Manchester. There's been plenty of evidence - for those with eyes to see.
Israel just murdered several Lebanese Hezbollah fighters.
The tories are frankly pretty unappealing at the moment. They have developed a range of distinctive non coalition policies that do absolutely nothing for centre right tories like me but still manage to hack off the Kippers at the same time. So we have yet more bribes for rich pensioners with savings to invest, we have promises of tax cuts with no credibility, we have a seriously incoherent internet security policy that I really can't make head nor tail of and we have a party promising to tear itself in 2 within 18 months of the election to argue about the EU (again).
It really shouldn't be hard to forge a policy platform that can attract TSE and Sean Fear. But the Tories can't seem to do it. How's that for "competency"? Also see May's bungling at the Home Office.
Or me. But every time I start to seriously reconsider voting Conservative the party and its supporters do everything possible to put me off.
You should feel flattered by their attention though.
With an MoE of 3% Greens at 11% might just as easily be Greens at 8%. The last time it was 6% that is also within MoE of 8%.
Its all MoE stuff still, its just looks impressive on small parties.
You still do not understand MofE Maths for opinion polling do you . The 3% MofE refers to a party polling around 40% . For a party polling at around 10% the MofE is around 1.2% much lower than 3% .
That's the statistical MofE, which assumes we have a perfect sample with which to work. Which is clearly nonsense. MofE for opinion polling is a "polite fiction".
The most startling thing about how well the Greens are doing is that they're doing this with a leader who makes Ed Miliband look sparkling with charisma. Just imagine how well they'd be doing if Caroline Lucas was still in charge.
The tories are frankly pretty unappealing at the moment. They have developed a range of distinctive non coalition policies that do absolutely nothing for centre right tories like me but still manage to hack off the Kippers at the same time. So we have yet more bribes for rich pensioners with savings to invest, we have promises of tax cuts with no credibility, we have a seriously incoherent internet security policy that I really can't make head nor tail of and we have a party promising to tear itself in 2 within 18 months of the election to argue about the EU (again).
It really shouldn't be hard to forge a policy platform that can attract TSE and Sean Fear. But the Tories can't seem to do it. How's that for "competency"? Also see May's bungling at the Home Office.
Or me. But every time I start to seriously reconsider voting Conservative the party and its supporters do everything possible to put me off.
With an MoE of 3% Greens at 11% might just as easily be Greens at 8%. The last time it was 6% that is also within MoE of 8%.
Its all MoE stuff still, its just looks impressive on small parties.
You still do not understand MofE Maths for opinion polling do you . The 3% MofE refers to a party polling around 40% . For a party polling at around 10% the MofE is around 1.2% much lower than 3% .
What is the margin of error for a national poll with an end sample of 492 ?
I can't understand why Lord A's national polls have a smaller sample that his individual constituency polls.
The most startling thing about how well the Greens are doing is that they're doing this with a leader who makes Ed Miliband look sparkling with charisma. Just imagine how well they'd be doing if Caroline Lucas was still in charge.
My money would be on "no better at all".
Really? She's a lot more media-savvy and likeable than Bennett imo.
The most startling thing about how well the Greens are doing is that they're doing this with a leader who makes Ed Miliband look sparkling with charisma. Just imagine how well they'd be doing if Caroline Lucas was still in charge.
My money would be on "no better at all".
Really? She's a lot more media-savvy and likeable than Bennett imo.
Of course she is. That doesnt contradict what I said though.
It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.
Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".
Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.
Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .
"We all have to speak out now. The time for qualification is over. We must rage against the fear. Scream ferociously “this will not stand”. That in 2015 we will not sit by whilst out neighbours feel scared to go to their shops, or take their children to school, or go to their place of worship. We need to say: “They came for the Jews. And I spoke out. Because I am not a Jew”. "
Yes - very good. What took him so long to realise this, though? There have been guards outside synagogues for the last decade. He need only have asked his mother - I'm talking about her constituency.
The terrorists in Toulouse targeted a Jewish school; the ones in Mumbai targeted the only tiny synagogue there; the terrorists in Belgium last year also targeted Jews; some people here a few years ago were charged (and, I believe, convicted) of preparing attacks on Jewish targets in Manchester. There's been plenty of evidence - for those with eyes to see.
Israel just murdered several Lebanese Hezbollah fighters.
With an MoE of 3% Greens at 11% might just as easily be Greens at 8%. The last time it was 6% that is also within MoE of 8%.
Its all MoE stuff still, its just looks impressive on small parties.
You still do not understand MofE Maths for opinion polling do you . The 3% MofE refers to a party polling around 40% . For a party polling at around 10% the MofE is around 1.2% much lower than 3% .
That's the statistical MofE, which assumes we have a perfect sample with which to work. Which is clearly nonsense. MofE for opinion polling is a "polite fiction".
There is some truth in what you say , but it is clearly nonsense to say that the MofE in a poll is the same for a party polling at 5 or 10% than it is for a party polling 30% or 40% .
The tories are frankly pretty unappealing at the moment. They have developed a range of distinctive non coalition policies that do absolutely nothing for centre right tories like me but still manage to hack off the Kippers at the same time. So we have yet more bribes for rich pensioners with savings to invest, we have promises of tax cuts with no credibility, we have a seriously incoherent internet security policy that I really can't make head nor tail of and we have a party promising to tear itself in 2 within 18 months of the election to argue about the EU (again).
I
Here's the thing: let's say David Cameron came out with a rational policy on encryption and on civil liberties. The Daily Mail would crucify him: David Cameron is - to use SeanT's words - "a useful idiot" who isn't standing up against the terrorists.
You know that's true, I know that's true. We all know that the vast majority of people think the government should be doing more to monitor internet communication to catch suspected terrorists. The fact that it is completely ineffectual is irrelevant to the debate.
The fact is that the right has fissured in the UK, and it is split between social conservatives (and as a secondary, those who hate the EU), and social liberals. Paul_Mid_Beds, who I have enormous respect for, is a classic example of the kind of Conservative who has left because he regards the party as too socially liberal. TSE is a classic example of the kind of person who would leave if the party because socially conservative.
I don't see the split as healing; perhaps the only way it 'might' is if the right wing of the Liberal Democrats (David Laws, Danny Alexander, Nick Clegg, etc.) and the socially liberal part off the Conservative Party were to merge. And if the left wing of the LibDems went off to join Labour (Vince, Farron, etc). In this way you'd lose one party out of the 4 (or maybe 5).
I've met plenty of Conservative social liberals who are eurosceptic and in favour of controlled immigration. Civil liberties isn't an issue either as there is a lot of common ground on both wings.
Where the main difference has tended to be in my experience is on traditional issues: capital punishment, corporal punishment, traditional no sex before marriage, no to any none nuclear family, repatriation, traditional CofE religion, lock 'em all up, pro-state survelliance, pro conscription, pro ID cards, and hard line on drugs. That's social conservatism IMHO.
You can still find a lot of older Tories who agree with all of the latter, whereas I don't with any of it. Yet there'd be some posters on here who called me out for moving to the Right and associating me with the Monday Club purely because David Cameron hasn't kept his promises on Europe and immigration reform.
The most startling thing about how well the Greens are doing is that they're doing this with a leader who makes Ed Miliband look sparkling with charisma. Just imagine how well they'd be doing if Caroline Lucas was still in charge.
My money would be on "no better at all".
My money would be on "just as badly" still losing vote share in every council by election since last June .
With an MoE of 3% Greens at 11% might just as easily be Greens at 8%. The last time it was 6% that is also within MoE of 8%.
Its all MoE stuff still, its just looks impressive on small parties.
You still do not understand MofE Maths for opinion polling do you . The 3% MofE refers to a party polling around 40% . For a party polling at around 10% the MofE is around 1.2% much lower than 3% .
What is the margin of error for a national poll with an end sample of 492 ?
I can't understand why Lord A's national polls have a smaller sample that his individual constituency polls.
He had 20,011 for his mega-NHS poll! Fieldwork was in late November but only published last week. It explains the blip in my graph for week-ending 30th November
The most startling thing about how well the Greens are doing is that they're doing this with a leader who makes Ed Miliband look sparkling with charisma. Just imagine how well they'd be doing if Caroline Lucas was still in charge.
My money would be on "no better at all".
My money would be on "just as badly" still losing vote share in every council by election since last June .
What's your record like when putting money on the Green party to fail? Have you spotted any particularly good value bets in that area?
With an MoE of 3% Greens at 11% might just as easily be Greens at 8%. The last time it was 6% that is also within MoE of 8%.
Its all MoE stuff still, its just looks impressive on small parties.
You still do not understand MofE Maths for opinion polling do you . The 3% MofE refers to a party polling around 40% . For a party polling at around 10% the MofE is around 1.2% much lower than 3% .
What is the margin of error for a national poll with an end sample of 492 ?
I can't understand why Lord A's national polls have a smaller sample that his individual constituency polls.
At what polling level ? The MofE for a sample size of say 500 v 1000 does not increase that much from around 3% to 3.5% for a party polling around 40%
By the way I predicted that the Ashcroft poll would have the major parties (I know, out of date terminology but historical references make it clear who I mean) would be within 1 per cent of each other. I am so rarely right that I thought I should draw attention to this.
Can you guess the next party that is going to slump/jump 5% in the next Ashcroft poll?
So you think it was a fluke, right? So do I tbh.
I note others are up 3 to 9. Given that most of the traditional others are now mainstream parties this seems fairly remarkable. I suspect the Scottish sub samples for this one are going to make the previous thread look a bit off.
The weighted base is just 43 people, but for the sake of amusement, the Scottish sub-sample in today's Ashcroft is:
SNP 58% Lab 24% Con 8% Lib 4% Grn 4% UKIP 1%
Also, "Another party" are on 3% in England. Are the English Democrats poised to make a substantial advance?
The tories are frankly pretty unappealing at the moment. They have developed a range of distinctive non coalition policies that do absolutely nothing for centre right tories like me but still manage to hack off the Kippers at the same time. So we have yet more bribes for rich pensioners with savings to invest, we have promises of tax cuts with no credibility, we have a seriously incoherent internet security policy that I really can't make head nor tail of and we have a party promising to tear itself in 2 within 18 months of the election to argue about the EU (again).
It really shouldn't be hard to forge a policy platform that can attract TSE and Sean Fear. But the Tories can't seem to do it. How's that for "competency"? Also see May's bungling at the Home Office.
Or me. But every time I start to seriously reconsider voting Conservative the party and its supporters do everything possible to put me off.
You should feel flattered by their attention though.
It's not really about me. There's an election coming up in under 4 months time. If the Conservatives want to win, they should be fighting for every vote.
They seem more interested in emoting their hatred for UKIP and 'punishing' those who had the temerity to abandon their party in the first place out of despair.
The most startling thing about how well the Greens are doing is that they're doing this with a leader who makes Ed Miliband look sparkling with charisma. Just imagine how well they'd be doing if Caroline Lucas was still in charge.
My money would be on "no better at all".
My money would be on "just as badly" still losing vote share in every council by election since last June .
What's your record like when putting money on the Green party to fail? Have you spotted any particularly good value bets in that area?
Have not lost any bets yet , I won money backing Lucas to win in 2010 based on my extensive local knowledge of the seat .
The tories are frankly pretty unappealing at the moment. They have developed a range of distinctive non coalition policies that do absolutely nothing for centre right tories like me but still manage to hack off the Kippers at the same time. So we have yet more bribes for rich pensioners with savings to invest, we have promises of tax cuts with no credibility, we have a seriously incoherent internet security policy that I really can't make head nor tail of and we have a party promising to tear itself in 2 within 18 months of the election to argue about the EU (again).
It really shouldn't be hard to forge a policy platform that can attract TSE and Sean Fear. But the Tories can't seem to do it. How's that for "competency"? Also see May's bungling at the Home Office.
Or me. But every time I start to seriously reconsider voting Conservative the party and its supporters do everything possible to put me off.
You should feel flattered by their attention though.
It's not really about me. There's an election coming up in under 4 months time. If the Conservatives want to win, they should be fighting for every vote.
They seem more interested in emoting their hatred for UKIP and 'punishing' those who had the temerity to abandon their party in the first place out of despair.
You want the Tories to change for you. How many voters do you think they'd lose, for that gain?
But would TSE really leave if the Tories said they were demanding an emergency brake on EU immigration? Would he leave if they brought back the primary purpose rule? I don't think the Tories need to go out and campaign on an across the board socially conservative model. But they need to strike a balance, and they've failed to do that.
You have said in the past that you believe the UK should stick by its treaty commitments. We are committed to maintaining free movement of labour across the EU by our treaties.
We can - of course - renegotiate or leave (or make the UK a less attractive place to EU immigrants), but to deliberately breach a treaty commitment that was sanctified by referendum would be an astonishing act.
Not according to Paddy Power he isn't ..... no doubt you'll be putting your money where your mouth is.
Indeed already balls deep in LAB most seats which i believe will result in EICIPM
You could lose that bet and Ed could still be PM y'know ;p
Or perhaps increasingly likely, both will fail to materialise.
Weren't you advising a "sell" of Conservative seats at 270 odd on the spreads or was that someone else. Am I thinking of someone else or do you change your mind from poll to poll ?
The tories are frankly pretty unappealing at the moment. They have developed a range of distinctive non coalition policies that do absolutely nothing for centre right tories like me but still manage to hack off the Kippers at the same time. So we have yet more bribes for rich pensioners with savings to invest, we have promises of tax cuts with no credibility, we have a seriously incoherent internet security policy that I really can't make head nor tail of and we have a party promising to tear itself in 2 within 18 months of the election to argue about the EU (again).
It really shouldn't be hard to forge a policy platform that can attract TSE and Sean Fear. But the Tories can't seem to do it. How's that for "competency"? Also see May's bungling at the Home Office.
Or me. But every time I start to seriously reconsider voting Conservative the party and its supporters do everything possible to put me off.
You should feel flattered by their attention though.
It's not really about me. There's an election coming up in under 4 months time. If the Conservatives want to win, they should be fighting for every vote.
They seem more interested in emoting their hatred for UKIP and 'punishing' those who had the temerity to abandon their party in the first place out of despair.
You want the Tories to change for you. How many voters do you think they'd lose, for that gain?
That's not an unreasonable point, but it feels like it could be turned around as well - how many votes have their gained from their current course to make up for the one's they have lost from it? Nowhere near enough it seems. If they had, there would not still be this debate in the Tories about their current path being correct, and why they still appear riven with infighting and indecision, and hence why half the party still seem to be holding out hope they can become UKIP even as UKIP tack left and despise them.
Comments
Masterstroke by Cam to big up the Greens - much derided by some on here.
Its all MoE stuff still, its just looks impressive on small parties.
Still fun though.
"We all have to speak out now. The time for qualification is over. We must rage against the fear. Scream ferociously “this will not stand”. That in 2015 we will not sit by whilst out neighbours feel scared to go to their shops, or take their children to school, or go to their place of worship. We need to say: “They came for the Jews. And I spoke out. Because I am not a Jew”. "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/11354927/They-are-still-coming-for-the-Jews.-So-why-is-nobody-speaking-out.html
animals.nationalgeographic.com/animals/mammals/aye-aye/
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_19-01-2015_BPC.pdf
Shows how much out of touch Kippers are with modern Britain and their animus towards immigrants/Muslims.
Can someone ( @OblitusSumMe ??!) calculate it ?
A moderated system of failure: Very much suitable for [MODERATED] plastics but not for grown-ups with a knowledge of Economics! How banal....
A lot of this is Miliband's fault of course. He has lost half the SLAB vote to the SNP and now he seems to have lost a significant chunk of the dafty left vote (sorry Neil, no offence) to the Greens. Who can he lose next?
The tories are frankly pretty unappealing at the moment. They have developed a range of distinctive non coalition policies that do absolutely nothing for centre right tories like me but still manage to hack off the Kippers at the same time. So we have yet more bribes for rich pensioners with savings to invest, we have promises of tax cuts with no credibility, we have a seriously incoherent internet security policy that I really can't make head nor tail of and we have a party promising to tear itself in 2 within 18 months of the election to argue about the EU (again).
The fact that they are so obviously the most competent option despite all this nonsense really shows why the public have despaired and lent their votes all over the shop.
Or Lord Ashcroft's polling is the greatest waste of money since Gordon Brown decided to increase public "investment". Hard to tell really.
The terrorists in Toulouse targeted a Jewish school; the ones in Mumbai targeted the only tiny synagogue there; the terrorists in Belgium last year also targeted Jews; some people here a few years ago were charged (and, I believe, convicted) of preparing attacks on Jewish targets in Manchester. There's been plenty of evidence - for those with eyes to see.
Only natural to combat Nige and Ed's combo.
Fantastic column on the rise of UKIP by my old Daily Express colleague Leo McKinstry http://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/leo-mckinstry/552791/Leo-McKinstry-on-the-rise-and-appeal-of-Ukip …
Has he changed his mind ? Genuine question.
Both are starting to show Con and Lab at under 30%.
Is it possible that they've spent so long berating and vilifying each other that it is difficult to see enough positives in either of them?
If he meets expectation he'll have spent close to £5million on polling this parliament.
Labour back in the lead next week.
Nothing to see here.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/green-party-election-poster-natalie-bennet-and-caroline-lucas-ask-party-leaders-what-are-you-afraid-of-boys-9987712.html
Second outlier in as many weeks.
I think the problem with his polls is the very small sample that he ends up with after all the filters.
You know that's true, I know that's true. We all know that the vast majority of people think the government should be doing more to monitor internet communication to catch suspected terrorists. The fact that it is completely ineffectual is irrelevant to the debate.
The fact is that the right has fissured in the UK, and it is split between social conservatives (and as a secondary, those who hate the EU), and social liberals. Paul_Mid_Beds, who I have enormous respect for, is a classic example of the kind of Conservative who has left because he regards the party as too socially liberal. TSE is a classic example of the kind of person who would leave if the party because socially conservative.
I don't see the split as healing; perhaps the only way it 'might' is if the right wing of the Liberal Democrats (David Laws, Danny Alexander, Nick Clegg, etc.) and the socially liberal part off the Conservative Party were to merge. And if the left wing of the LibDems went off to join Labour (Vince, Farron, etc). In this way you'd lose one party out of the 4 (or maybe 5).
Regulate it, limit its distribution, question the parental authority of those foolish enough to buy it with intent to supply to said babies, require the sugar content to be reduced (and manufactured from UK grown sugar beet natch) and the imposition of minimum height requirements for shelves bearing it, yes, but they wouldn't actually take it.
http://news.antiwar.com/2015/01/18/israeli-helicopter-attack-on-syria-kills-five-hezbollah-fighters/
The issue is, incidentally, also highly relevant to SLAB and what Mr Murphy appears to be trying to show, and what he will be allowed to do by Mr Miliband (not necessarily the same thing at all).
For the LibDems, they are 1.0% ahead of Greens on a simple average, but 2.4% ahead on ELBOW!
Excluding would not vote/don't know that would be just over 7% of the sample - so Ashcroft is still somehow finding many more Greens in his sample, consistent with the Ashcroft being an outlier with a randomly Green-heavy sample.
I note others are up 3 to 9. Given that most of the traditional others are now mainstream parties this seems fairly remarkable. I suspect the Scottish sub samples for this one are going to make the previous thread look a bit off.
I can't understand why Lord A's national polls have a smaller sample that his individual constituency polls.
Or were you just drawing my attention to the fact that there is a war in Syria where a lot of people are fighting, in case I wasn't aware?
Where the main difference has tended to be in my experience is on traditional issues: capital punishment, corporal punishment, traditional no sex before marriage, no to any none nuclear family, repatriation, traditional CofE religion, lock 'em all up, pro-state survelliance, pro conscription, pro ID cards, and hard line on drugs. That's social conservatism IMHO.
You can still find a lot of older Tories who agree with all of the latter, whereas I don't with any of it. Yet there'd be some posters on here who called me out for moving to the Right and associating me with the Monday Club purely because David Cameron hasn't kept his promises on Europe and immigration reform.
SNP 58%
Lab 24%
Con 8%
Lib 4%
Grn 4%
UKIP 1%
Also, "Another party" are on 3% in England. Are the English Democrats poised to make a substantial advance?
They seem more interested in emoting their hatred for UKIP and 'punishing' those who had the temerity to abandon their party in the first place out of despair.
From the end of February through to election day exclusive PB publication will move from fortnightly to twice weekly on Tuesday and Saturday.
We can - of course - renegotiate or leave (or make the UK a less attractive place to EU immigrants), but to deliberately breach a treaty commitment that was sanctified by referendum would be an astonishing act.
Am I thinking of someone else or do you change your mind from poll to poll ?