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SystemSystem Posts: 12,681
edited January 2015 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories slump 5 while Greens jump to 11 in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll

Greens hit their highest poll share ever in latest Ashcroft National Poll

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Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,397
    Peak green!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,397
    (oh, and "FIRST!")
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,907
    Outlier Alert! Outlier Alert!

    Greens on 11?!!!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Ashcroft maintains its Gold Standard status

    Con 29 (-5) Labour 28 (nc) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 15 (-1) Greens 11 (+3)

    Neil, the Greens have hit double figures, for what I think is the first time ever.

    The early discount offer is still available to you.

    Also makes it inevitable the Greens will be in third place with Ipsos-Mori next month.

    God bless the Quasi fascist, happiness destroying, economically illiterate Greens.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Greens to overtake Kippers too in line with membership no.s
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    A contender for weirdest poll of the Parliament so far?

    1) No party in the 30s.
    2) Four parties in double figures and a fifth within one point of double figures.
    3) The Conservatives and UKIP both dropping in the same poll.

    The last time we saw such a green deluge was in the video of American Idiot.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,907
    They have to include the Greens in the TV debates, surely!

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/556884375057739776/photo/1
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,373
    29% - a mandate for government!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    ENP 4.8
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    The Ashcroft opinion polls really are batshit insane. There surely can't be THAT much volatility?

    I'm wondering if it puts some slight doubt on his much-vaunted marginals polls as well, tbh.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    I think the only value in this poll is it confirms the Tories and Labour are neck and neck.

    Other than that, ignore.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Populus Greens 4% , this week's wildly variable Ashcroft 11% , Greens vote share in all council by elections since July just under 4% , this weeks Ashcroft poll belongs in the waste bin same as last weeks .
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,538
    These are.............odd numbers.

    I think you'd have to go back to 1981 to find both Conservative and Labour polling under 30%.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    GREEN DAY
    antifrank said:

    A contender for weirdest poll of the Parliament so far?

    1) No party in the 30s.
    2) Four parties in double figures and a fifth within one point of double figures.
    3) The Conservatives and UKIP both dropping in the same poll.

    The last time we saw such a green deluge was in the video of American Idiot.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ee_uujKuJMI
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    fpt

    Oxfam's executive director Winnie Byanyima is fronting this stuff.

    Not sure how common the name is, but - from 2007 -

    Kampala — THE United Nations Development Programme is investigating circumstances under which Ms Winnie Byanyima accessed UN benefits for her sister's child. Ms Byanyima, the director of the UNDP gender team based in New York City, is alleged to have declared her sister Edith's son, Tau Katungi, as her own child. Consequently, UNDP pays Katungi's school fees in the knowledge that he is the son of Ms Byanyima.

    http://allafrica.com/stories/200709141084.html

    As the world's richest 1% plainly just don't have enough to get by on, things are even worse than we thought.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    POEWAS

    If each leader were an animal, what would they be? Cameron would be a fox, being smart and sleek – or, less charitably, “a giraffe, looking down on everybody”. Farage? A peacock, or a weasel. Clegg? “A Chihuahua in David Cameron’s handbag”. Miliband? Puzzlement. “Certainly not a predator… one of those animals that, when you go to the zoo, you’re not bothered whether you see it or not.”
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    edited January 2015
    Any poll with the Tories ahead is broadly correct.

    Everything else is just fluff.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,317
    It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.

    Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".

    Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    A slump, but still in the lead. Very nice for the Greens.

    FPT: Debate scenario: Cameron refuses to turn up. Gets empty-chaired. Miliband doesn't win, Farage does.

    It *could* happen. It'd be interesting if it did.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Obviously Tapestry was right: as the election comes into focus, fracking is pushing voters in leafy Tory shires to the Greens. Or something like that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    antifrank said:

    A contender for weirdest poll of the Parliament so far?

    1) No party in the 30s.
    2) Four parties in double figures and a fifth within one point of double figures.
    3) The Conservatives and UKIP both dropping in the same poll.

    The last time we saw such a green deluge was in the video of American Idiot.

    Surely this poll is more of a Basket Case?

    Or is it a Boulevard of Broken Dreams for Dave/Ed/Nick/Nigel
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,983
    Todays LARGER (Lord Ashcroft Randomly Generated Election Results) EICIPM on 28%
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @TSE Werent the Greens on 10% with one of the MORI measures in December? Thankfully I wasnt a sad enough child to be aware of any polling levels in the run up to / aftermath of the 1989 Euros. My offer remains open to you too.




  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    GREEN DAY

    antifrank said:

    A contender for weirdest poll of the Parliament so far?

    1) No party in the 30s.
    2) Four parties in double figures and a fifth within one point of double figures.
    3) The Conservatives and UKIP both dropping in the same poll.

    The last time we saw such a green deluge was in the video of American Idiot.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ee_uujKuJMI
    Indeed: see from 1.50.

    Best bit of Lord Ashcroft's commentary (from his focus group):

    http://t.co/nVogpFmnNM

    "If each leader were an animal, what would they be? Cameron would be a fox, being smart and sleek – or, less charitably, “a giraffe, looking down on everybody”. Farage? A peacock, or a weasel. Clegg? “A Chihuahua in David Cameron’s handbag”. Miliband? Puzzlement. “Certainly not a predator… one of those animals that, when you go to the zoo, you’re not bothered whether you see it or not.” "
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    The Green membership has overtaken UKIP though..........................................

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,506
    FPT
    OblitusSumMe said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    It looks like it is pretty hard to receive ~40-45% of the vote and not win something like two-thirds or three-quarters of the seats. That's FPTP. Tactical voting is difficult, because the prospective tactical voter can be misled by the result last time, when underlying support has shifted so much, into casting an ineffective tactical vote.

    The exception to this is, of course, when there are only two parties.

    Which is why I think the Conservatives may have missed a trick by not dissolving the Scottish branch of their party and relaunching the Unionist Party [of Scotland]. The only voting block larger than the SNPs "45%" is the Unionist "55%"...
    Un peu en retard for that little wheeze, sensible as it may be. Murdo Fraser tried that on the blue-rinses and young Tories of Scotland. He got the chop and Ruth Davidson got the leadership.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Neil said:

    @TSE Werent the Greens on 10% with one of the MORI measures in December? Thankfully I wasnt a sad enough child to be aware of any polling levels in the run up to / aftermath of the 1989 Euros. My offer remains open to you too.

    I think if I took any more, I'd be taking advantage of you.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    Oh If Paddy Power had only allowed me more than £3.22 on the greens at 25-1 in Norwich South...
  • isamisam Posts: 42,608
    TOPPING said:

    It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.

    Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".

    Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.

    Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    POEWASx2 - from the same Lord A update:

    In the wake of the Paris attacks, people’s remarks about David Cameron often focused on the need for strong leadership in an uncertain world – a role that, from the candidates on offer, they could only imagine him fulfilling: “you need someone in authority who looks like they can cope with it”.

    Perhaps the most notable feature of these groups of undecided voters was the absence of any enthusiasm for Labour – even among those who had voted for the party in 2010 – or any urgent desire for change. Nobody could recall any Labour promises, and the most positive thing anyone said about Ed Miliband was that “he talks sense on things like not privatising the NHS, but he’s not really on the ball, not in David Cameron’s league”. People could not say where he wanted to take Britain: “he hasn’t really made up his mind where he’s going… it’s as though he just wants to be a politician, and he’s faffing around to find some principles” – and, ominously, “it feels like he’s the interim Labour leader until the next one”.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,873
    edited January 2015
    No surprise on Tory number. Was never that big a margin. Happily still ahead.

    Cameron giving lots of oxygen to the Greens not looking such shit politics now is it?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited January 2015
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Miliband? Puzzlement. “Certainly not a predator… one of those animals that, when you go to the zoo, you’re not bothered whether you see it or not.”

    One of those yapping little dogs that keeps tugging at the leg of your trouser and you badly want to punt across the street.

    Something like this http://garfield.com/game/punt-the-pooch

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,506
    Carnyx said:

    FPT

    OblitusSumMe said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    It looks like it is pretty hard to receive ~40-45% of the vote and not win something like two-thirds or three-quarters of the seats. That's FPTP. Tactical voting is difficult, because the prospective tactical voter can be misled by the result last time, when underlying support has shifted so much, into casting an ineffective tactical vote.

    The exception to this is, of course, when there are only two parties.

    Which is why I think the Conservatives may have missed a trick by not dissolving the Scottish branch of their party and relaunching the Unionist Party [of Scotland]. The only voting block larger than the SNPs "45%" is the Unionist "55%"...
    Un peu en retard for that little wheeze, sensible as it may be. Murdo Fraser tried that on the blue-rinses and young Tories of Scotland. He got the chop and Ruth Davidson got the leadership.

    PS Of course, once London loses control, the local interests start to become paramount. Just think of farmers in Scotland. Not at all happy that London takes EU money directed at them and spends it south of the border.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,907
    Neil said:

    @TSE Werent the Greens on 10% with one of the MORI measures in December? Thankfully I wasnt a sad enough child to be aware of any polling levels in the run up to / aftermath of the 1989 Euros. My offer remains open to you too.




    No, single figures throughout 2014
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    The reds are in a panic.... with the blues only on 29%?

    Owen Jones‏@OwenJones84·3 mins3 minutes ago
    There’s a growing chance the Tories could scrape in on 7th May because Labour lost so much ground to the Greens. Time for radical action.

  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Lots of lovely loin pumping stuff about David Cameron here....

    ...and the Tories slump 5.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    MarqueeMark said:


    Cameron giving lots of oxygen to the Greens not looking such shit politics now is it?

    It's the Tories and UKIP who are down rather than Labour and the Lib Dems ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    MarqueeMark said:

    No surprise on Tory number. Was never that big a margin. Happily still ahead.

    Cameron giving lots of oxygen to the Greens not looking such shit politics now is it?

    Green publicity & the pensioner bribe are smart plays, have to give credit to the Conservative machine where it's due.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.

    Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".

    Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.

    Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
    That must be our idiot PM who "isn't very good at politics".
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Neil said:

    @TSE Werent the Greens on 10% with one of the MORI measures in December? Thankfully I wasnt a sad enough child to be aware of any polling levels in the run up to / aftermath of the 1989 Euros. My offer remains open to you too.




    No, single figures throughout 2014
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015
    They were on 10% on the all giving a voting intention in December's Ipsos-Mori

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/545609088911290368
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Mr. Scrapheap, Ed Miliband - supply leader.

    And yet, he could still win. The election's going to be very odd.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Indigo said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Miliband? Puzzlement. “Certainly not a predator… one of those animals that, when you go to the zoo, you’re not bothered whether you see it or not.”

    One of those yapping little dogs that keeps tugging at the leg of your trouser and you badly want to punt across the street.

    Something like this http://garfield.com/game/punt-the-pooch

    Death-ray panda, surely?

    http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2010/9/27/1285624202609/28.09.2010-Steve-Bell-car-001.jpg
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Paddy Power now have Ed Miliband as being Odds Against being the Prime Minister after the general Election ..... wow!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Tissue_Price said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.

    Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".

    Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.

    Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
    That must be our idiot PM who "isn't very good at politics".
    Shush.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Neil said:

    @TSE Werent the Greens on 10% with one of the MORI measures in December? Thankfully I wasnt a sad enough child to be aware of any polling levels in the run up to / aftermath of the 1989 Euros. My offer remains open to you too.




    No, single figures throughout 2014
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015
    Those are the certain to vote measures - on the other one they were on 10%.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    edited January 2015
    Obviously this poll is Tories voting tactically to ensure the Greens are in the debates, to shaft Ed Miliband.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,983
    MarqueeMark said:

    No surprise on Tory number. Was never that big a margin. Happily still ahead.

    Cameron giving lots of oxygen to the Greens not looking such shit politics now is it?

    You are as mad as Sean T who proclaimed last weeks LARGER was picking first signs Electorate were finally coming to their senses and other polls with large Tory leads would follow.

    Empty chair PMs do not win GEs
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,317
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.

    Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".

    Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.

    Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
    It's a safe left NOTA.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    My twitter feed hasnt been this crazy since .. well, last week when 2,000+ people a day were joining. This poll is good news for giving the Green rising story new legs more than for being a sign that the parties will poll 11% across GB in May.
  • AllyPally_RobAllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    Very odd poll. Guess it just confirms the ongoing trend of Labour and Tories staying very tight. I was relatively confident of a Lab overall majority in early 2014, don't have a clue now.

    Was in Nottingham this weekend in Nick Palmer's former constituency. Obviously somewhere Labour need to win to be on the right track come may. Was surprised to here how popular Anna Soubry seems to be locally, especially amongst some usually solid Labour voters i know. They all expect her to get back in next time.

    Obviously that's only anecdotal evidence, but if Broxtowe doesn't fall Labour are stuffed.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Indigo said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Miliband? Puzzlement. “Certainly not a predator… one of those animals that, when you go to the zoo, you’re not bothered whether you see it or not.”

    One of those yapping little dogs that keeps tugging at the leg of your trouser and you badly want to punt across the street.

    Something like this http://garfield.com/game/punt-the-pooch

    called Odie.....

    It'll never catch on.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,608
    Tissue_Price said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.

    Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".

    Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.

    Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
    That must be our idiot PM who "isn't very good at politics".
    I don't really like that kind of polticking though do you?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    bigjohnowls said:

    Todays LARGER (Lord Ashcroft Randomly Generated Election Results) EICIPM on 28%

    Not according to Paddy Power he isn't ..... no doubt you'll be putting your money where your mouth is.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    It's the 2010 Lib Dems, of course.

    In this poll Labour take just 17% (excluding don't knows), compared to the 14% that say they will vote Conservative, the 10% switching to UKIP and the 20% to the Greens.

    Labour pick up more (net) direct swing voters from the Conservatives than they do (net of the Lib Dems switching to the Tories) from the Lib Dems. Maybe Ed is simply a centrist like his brother, taking votes from the Tories in the centre, rather than from the Lib Dems on the left...
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.

    Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".

    Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.

    Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
    And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,873
    Neil said:

    MarqueeMark said:


    Cameron giving lots of oxygen to the Greens not looking such shit politics now is it?

    It's the Tories and UKIP who are down rather than Labour and the Lib Dems ;)
    Neil said:

    MarqueeMark said:


    Cameron giving lots of oxygen to the Greens not looking such shit politics now is it?

    It's the Tories and UKIP who are down rather than Labour and the Lib Dems ;)
    The Tories were never 6% ahead. Every Tory admitted it was an outlier.

    Looking forward to the direction of travel from Red to Green though. Labour 25% next month?

    I really don't know what methodology His Lordship applies and the numbers do saw-tooth around, but his polling does seem to pick up the trends early, albeit the polling is a bit lumpy.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,608
    edited January 2015
    MarkSenior said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.

    Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".

    Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.

    Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
    And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .
    Hmmm fair point.. what do you think causes this rise then?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    edited January 2015
    Aside from the Cleggasm polls, this has to be the weirdest poll since 2004 (?) when the Guardian ICM poll had the Tories, Lab and Lib Dem all on 30%
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    MarkSenior said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.

    Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".

    Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.

    Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
    And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .
    But the effect on membership has seen them sail past the Lib Dems. That's going to have a real impact on council elections and then your beloved council by-elections up and down the country over time.

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    isam said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.

    Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".

    Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.

    Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
    That must be our idiot PM who "isn't very good at politics".
    I don't really like that kind of polticking though do you?
    "All is fair in love and war"
    "politics is war by other means"
    ;)
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    AllyPally_Rob said:

    Very odd poll. Guess it just confirms the ongoing trend of Labour and Tories staying very tight. I was relatively confident of a Lab overall majority in early 2014, don't have a clue now.

    Was in Nottingham this weekend in Nick Palmer's former constituency. Obviously somewhere Labour need to win to be on the right track come may. Was surprised to here how popular Anna Soubry seems to be locally, especially amongst some usually solid Labour voters i know. They all expect her to get back in next time.

    Obviously that's only anecdotal evidence, but if Broxtowe doesn't fall Labour are stuffed.

    You managed to miss all the Blues for Palmer????????? If you are right you should be out betting on her, v good odds available.....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Neil said:

    MarkSenior said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.

    Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".

    Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.

    Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
    And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .
    But the effect on membership has seen them sail past the Lib Dems. That's going to have a real impact on council elections and then your beloved council by-elections up and down the country over time.

    It will also have an effect in say Brighton Pavilion, when all those extra Green activists go out and campaign for Caroline Lucas.

    What odds is she now?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,907
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Neil said:

    @TSE Werent the Greens on 10% with one of the MORI measures in December? Thankfully I wasnt a sad enough child to be aware of any polling levels in the run up to / aftermath of the 1989 Euros. My offer remains open to you too.




    No, single figures throughout 2014
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015
    They were on 10% on the all giving a voting intention in December's Ipsos-Mori

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/545609088911290368
    Yebbut that doesn't count :)
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    MarqueeMark said:

    No surprise on Tory number. Was never that big a margin. Happily still ahead.

    Cameron giving lots of oxygen to the Greens not looking such shit politics now is it?

    MarqueeMark said:

    No surprise on Tory number. Was never that big a margin. Happily still ahead.

    Cameron giving lots of oxygen to the Greens not looking such shit politics now is it?

    Correct and Labour becoming more lefty to satisfy the leak to both SNP and Green is hardly clever either.
    But then again are any of these polls believable?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,608
    edited January 2015
    This is another thread dominated by squabbling over polls that might/might not be favourable to someones preferred option... and that may or may not be anywhere near the current mood/GE result

    "An observation, not a criticism" as my Dad says to my Mum after dinner, but I think less threads micro analysing polls and more about individual betting heats or political philosophy would be beneficial, and result in less partisan nonsery
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    AllyPally_Rob said:

    Very odd poll. Guess it just confirms the ongoing trend of Labour and Tories staying very tight. I was relatively confident of a Lab overall majority in early 2014, don't have a clue now.

    Was in Nottingham this weekend in Nick Palmer's former constituency. Obviously somewhere Labour need to win to be on the right track come may. Was surprised to here how popular Anna Soubry seems to be locally, especially amongst some usually solid Labour voters i know. They all expect her to get back in next time.

    Obviously that's only anecdotal evidence, but if Broxtowe doesn't fall Labour are stuffed.

    That's very much at odds with Nick Palmer's own recent comments in which he appears to think he's home and dry in Broxtowe.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Aside from the Cleggasm polls, this has to be the weirdest poll since 2004 (?) when the Guardian ICM poll had the Tories, Lab and Lib Dem all on 30%

    Still, credit for Ashcroft's scientific rigour for releasing a poll that seems so unexpected. I bet a lot of pollsters would have sat on it.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    isam said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.

    Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".

    Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.

    Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
    That must be our idiot PM who "isn't very good at politics".
    I don't really like that kind of polticking though do you?
    Standing up for a minority's right to have their voice heard? All power to Dave. All the more so when they are a voice he doesn't instinctively agree with.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    "“Certainly not a predator… one of those animals that, when you go to the zoo, you’re not bothered whether you see it or not.” "

    Ed Milliband, the Binturong.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    isam said:

    This is another thread dominated by squabbling over polls that might/might not be favourable to someones preferred option...

    "An observation, not a criticism" as my Dad says to my Mum after dinner, but I think less threads micro analysing polls and more about individual betting heats or political philosophy would be beneficial, and result in less partisan nonsery

    I prefer the anecdotal feedback and animal references don't you?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Danny565 said:

    The Ashcroft opinion polls really are batshit insane. There surely can't be THAT much volatility?

    I'm wondering if it puts some slight doubt on his much-vaunted marginals polls as well, tbh.

    The volatility is probably about right, given the sample size, and random variation.

    The low figures for Labour and Conservatives combined are what stand out - could be the Angus Reid of this Parliament.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,894
    The Mansion tax, anti-privatisation, nationalising (some) railways, minimum wage rise, market intervention.. there's not much more Labour can cede to the Green type of voter to convince them if they're not already on board.

    The Greens not having major party status and some tactical voting should help as the election gets closer. They are after all still averaging only around 6% as well..
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    peter_from_putney said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    Very odd poll. Guess it just confirms the ongoing trend of Labour and Tories staying very tight. I was relatively confident of a Lab overall majority in early 2014, don't have a clue now.

    Was in Nottingham this weekend in Nick Palmer's former constituency. Obviously somewhere Labour need to win to be on the right track come may. Was surprised to here how popular Anna Soubry seems to be locally, especially amongst some usually solid Labour voters i know. They all expect her to get back in next time.

    Obviously that's only anecdotal evidence, but if Broxtowe doesn't fall Labour are stuffed.

    That's very much at odds with Nick Palmer's own recent comments in which he appears to think he's home and dry in Broxtowe.
    I dont think anyone can fairly accuse Nick of taking the election result in Broxtowe for granted.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Neil said:

    MarkSenior said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.

    Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".

    Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.

    Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
    And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .
    But the effect on membership has seen them sail past the Lib Dems. That's going to have a real impact on council elections and then your beloved council by-elections up and down the country over time.

    Dream on
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Given that Labour lagging by 20 points is great news for Labour being short by 1 must be the greatest polling news in the history of forever.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    isam said:

    This is another thread dominated by squabbling over polls that might/might not be favourable to someones preferred option... and that may or may not be anywhere near the current mood/GE result

    "An observation, not a criticism" as my Dad says to my Mum after dinner, but I think less threads micro analysing polls and more about individual betting heats or political philosophy would be beneficial, and result in less partisan nonsery

    No point in microanalysing leads, I agree. But this poll will add weight to the Greens-in-the-debates argument, which is betting material both directly and indirectly.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    Neil said:

    MarkSenior said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.

    Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".

    Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.

    Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
    And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .
    But the effect on membership has seen them sail past the Lib Dems. That's going to have a real impact on council elections and then your beloved council by-elections up and down the country over time.

    Are there any Council elections this week? Seem a bit soon after the various public holidays.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,983
    peter_from_putney said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Todays LARGER (Lord Ashcroft Randomly Generated Election Results) EICIPM on 28%

    Not according to Paddy Power he isn't ..... no doubt you'll be putting your money where your mouth is.
    Indeed already balls deep in LAB most seats which i believe will result in EICIPM
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    This is another thread dominated by squabbling over polls that might/might not be favourable to someones preferred option... and that may or may not be anywhere near the current mood/GE result

    "An observation, not a criticism" as my Dad says to my Mum after dinner, but I think less threads micro analysing polls and more about individual betting heats or political philosophy would be beneficial, and result in less partisan nonsery

    No single poll should be taken too seriously. The more interesting its results, the more likely it is to be an outlier, one way or another.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Time OGH applies neutrality in his thread headings. "Tory slump"? Last week he picked lumps out of the Ashcroft poll claiming it was an outlier. Now he criticises it for having a realistic Tory lead.

    The most devastating comment from the Focus group in the Ashcroft poll must be that Ed Bland is (so irrelevant) such that they couldn't even think of a zoo animal to compare him to but he would be one no-one would care about missing out. Loved the comment about him having the air of being interim leader, filling the gap until the next real Labour leader comes along.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,608
    Tissue_Price said:

    isam said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.

    Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".

    Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.

    Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
    That must be our idiot PM who "isn't very good at politics".
    I don't really like that kind of polticking though do you?
    Standing up for a minority's right to have their voice heard? All power to Dave. All the more so when they are a voice he doesn't instinctively agree with.
    Before I reply, you are joking?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,907
    MarkSenior said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.

    Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".

    Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.

    Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
    And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .
    LibDems lead over the Greens average 1.2% week-ending 11th Jan
    LibDems lead over the Greens in ELBOW 1.2% week-ending 11th Jan

    LibDems lead over the Greens average 0.9% week-ending 18th Jan
    LibDems lead over the Greens ELBOW 0.8% week-ending 18th Jan.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Peak Weasel

    .@LordAshcroft focus group: PM likened to fox/giraffe; Farage peacock/ weasel; Clegg chihuahua; Ed M zoo animal 'noone wants to see'
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,873
    OblitusSumMe said:

    It's the 2010 Lib Dems, of course.

    In this poll Labour take just 17% (excluding don't knows), compared to the 14% that say they will vote Conservative, the 10% switching to UKIP and the 20% to the Greens.

    Labour pick up more (net) direct swing voters from the Conservatives than they do (net of the Lib Dems switching to the Tories) from the Lib Dems. Maybe Ed is simply a centrist like his brother, taking votes from the Tories in the centre, rather than from the Lib Dems on the left...

    Along with Scotland, its the Yellow to Green via mid-term Red vote that will do for Ed. All those votes he thought he had in his back pocket seem to have spilled out - along with the keys to 10 Downing Street.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    bigjohnowls said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Todays LARGER (Lord Ashcroft Randomly Generated Election Results) EICIPM on 28%

    Not according to Paddy Power he isn't ..... no doubt you'll be putting your money where your mouth is.
    Indeed already balls deep in LAB most seats which i believe will result in EICIPM
    I am too, however I'm going in the other direction.

    Not a pleasant image.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    isam said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    isam said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.

    Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".

    Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.

    Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
    That must be our idiot PM who "isn't very good at politics".
    I don't really like that kind of polticking though do you?
    Standing up for a minority's right to have their voice heard? All power to Dave. All the more so when they are a voice he doesn't instinctively agree with.
    Before I reply, you are joking?
    Of course. I'm just gently pushing back against all the nonsense that's come out about DC being too scared to take on Farage etc. It's got nothing to do with being scared, it's to do with rational calculation.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    MarkSenior said:

    Neil said:

    MarkSenior said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.

    Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".

    Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.

    Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
    And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .
    But the effect on membership has seen them sail past the Lib Dems. That's going to have a real impact on council elections and then your beloved council by-elections up and down the country over time.

    Dream on
    Dream on about what? The membership surge? That's happened. Council election results? Well, with 3 / 4 times as many members as the last time these seats were contested there will be more people to stand in those elections and more activists to do the work to win more seats. Council by-elections? They will follow on from that. Retaining Brighton Pavilion? It's better than an 8/1 shot.

    Sweet dreams!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Lord Ashcroft writes clearly and amusingly. I hope he is planning further writing ventures.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Easterross said:

    Time OGH applies neutrality in his thread headings. "Tory slump"? Last week he picked lumps out of the Ashcroft poll claiming it was an outlier. Now he criticises it for having a realistic Tory lead.

    The most devastating comment from the Focus group in the Ashcroft poll must be that Ed Bland is (so irrelevant) such that they couldn't even think of a zoo animal to compare him to but he would be one no-one would care about missing out. Loved the comment about him having the air of being interim leader, filling the gap until the next real Labour leader comes along.

    I thought last week Mike didn't say it was an outlier, just confusing when compared to the Populus poll a few hours earlier.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited January 2015
    Neil said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    Very odd poll. Guess it just confirms the ongoing trend of Labour and Tories staying very tight. I was relatively confident of a Lab overall majority in early 2014, don't have a clue now.

    Was in Nottingham this weekend in Nick Palmer's former constituency. Obviously somewhere Labour need to win to be on the right track come may. Was surprised to here how popular Anna Soubry seems to be locally, especially amongst some usually solid Labour voters i know. They all expect her to get back in next time.

    Obviously that's only anecdotal evidence, but if Broxtowe doesn't fall Labour are stuffed.

    That's very much at odds with Nick Palmer's own recent comments in which he appears to think he's home and dry in Broxtowe.
    I dont think anyone can fairly accuse Nick of taking the election result in Broxtowe for granted.

    Not quite but nearly in one of his recent posts... something along the line of him now expecting to win by a few thousand I think wasn't it?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    MarkSenior said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.

    Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".

    Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.

    Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
    And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .
    Populus hasn't given the unweighted Green figure in it's tables.

    They had 89 Green "identifiers", downweighted to 41, and 54 weighted respondees who said they would vote Green - Populus' methodology certainly normally dampens UKIP, wonder if the same may be happening with the Greens.
  • politicalobserverpoliticalobserver Posts: 2
    This latest Lord Ashcroft poll is ridiculous! So where has this 5% drop in the Tory vote gone to then? UKIP are also down 1% and Labour stay still. It hasn't gone to the Greens. Ashcroft polls do not feel right at all!!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    bigjohnowls said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Todays LARGER (Lord Ashcroft Randomly Generated Election Results) EICIPM on 28%

    Not according to Paddy Power he isn't ..... no doubt you'll be putting your money where your mouth is.
    Indeed already balls deep in LAB most seats which i believe will result in EICIPM
    You could lose that bet and Ed could still be PM y'know ;p
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    BenM said:



    ...and the Tories slump 5.

    Mike Smithson: "Tories slump 5"

    Have you and OGH ever been in the same room together?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,907
    TGOHF said:

    Peak Weasel

    .@LordAshcroft focus group: PM likened to fox/giraffe; Farage peacock/ weasel; Clegg chihuahua; Ed M zoo animal 'noone wants to see'

    What about Natalie Bennett?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Fascinating. Doctor.
    Are you big or small. Watch everyone and everything. Those with brains do. V Try much higher as he as harder. E
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    MarkSenior said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.

    Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".

    Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.

    Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
    And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .
    Greens at 6% in today's Populus.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    AllyPally_Rob said:

    Very odd poll. Guess it just confirms the ongoing trend of Labour and Tories staying very tight. I was relatively confident of a Lab overall majority in early 2014, don't have a clue now.

    Was in Nottingham this weekend in Nick Palmer's former constituency. Obviously somewhere Labour need to win to be on the right track come may. Was surprised to here how popular Anna Soubry seems to be locally, especially amongst some usually solid Labour voters i know. They all expect her to get back in next time.

    Obviously that's only anecdotal evidence, but if Broxtowe doesn't fall Labour are stuffed.

    It's the anecdotal evidence which suggests to some of us a 1992 result looks more likely. Remember a few weeks ago Nick Palmer tried to dismiss a 5% Labour to Tory by-election swing in a ward in Broxtowe by saying it was the safest Tory ward.

    If I had spare cash I would be putting it on the Tories taking a series of Labour marginals starting with Southampton Itchen and Ed Balls seat.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    Neil said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Neil said:

    MarkSenior said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    It's amazing - there is obviously a core group of people who are desperately seeking a radical left agenda. They thought the LDs would provide it only to be thwarted by reality and now they think that the Greens can provide it.

    Or rather, and more likely, they don't really care who gets in and are only interested in the moral satisfaction of not voting for "more of the same".

    Whether this is a legitimate action (of course it is) is one thing. Whether it furthers the development of participatory politics is another.

    Or the Greens have been in the news about 500% more than usual this week with the PM categorising them as the same as the Lib Dems and UKIP?
    And the effect in Populus of this publicity was to put their vote share down to 4% .
    But the effect on membership has seen them sail past the Lib Dems. That's going to have a real impact on council elections and then your beloved council by-elections up and down the country over time.

    Dream on
    Dream on about what? The membership surge? That's happened. Council election results? Well, with 3 / 4 times as many members as the last time these seats were contested there will be more people to stand in those elections and more activists to do the work to win more seats. Council by-elections? They will follow on from that. Retaining Brighton Pavilion? It's better than an 8/1 shot.

    Sweet dreams!
    So you'll be using the 8-1 winnings from Brighton to pay TSE ?
This discussion has been closed.

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