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Political betting is being blamed for the Tories losing control of every council tonight

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,739

    Tory voters in Doncaster should be ashamed, they could have scared the crap out of that idiot Miliband.

    Perhaps they need to see some bar charts ;-)
  • vikvik Posts: 306
    edited May 2
    IanB2 said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Let's be honest: although a fairly close result is fun, we really didn't need a result which oscillates between 4 votes ahead for one party and 10 votes ahead for another one in the current febrile political environment.

    thats FPTP
    A sensible Labour Party would be reflecting on the merits of a preferential voting system….
    Yes, exactly !

    My own guesstimate is that Labour would have gotten 80% of Green, LibDem, Liberal & Rejoin EU preferences.

    Even if we assume they get only 30% of the preferences of all the other parties, then that would still have given them 16,417 two-party preferred votes against 15,885 votes for Reform UK, and a Labour victory.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,430

    Congrats to the new MP for Runcorn and Helsby, and commiserations to the loser. Such a close loss must really hurt.

    Now, any betting as to how long it is before the new MP falls out with Farage? ;)

    Looking at her back story seems like she doesn't shy away from having bust ups when she was a Tory.
    Hmm.

    And I don't often say this and hopefully will never need to write it again. Good luck to the Tory candidates in today's counts.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,883
    edited May 2
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    What do you suggest? How are Reform going to fix it?

    Deal with tax loopholes comprehensively. Make multinationals pay their way.
    And then they all leave presumably. Tough choices only.
    Do you think Amazon will leave? Apple?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721
    edited May 2

    IanB2 said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Let's be honest: although a fairly close result is fun, we really didn't need a result which oscillates between 4 votes ahead for one party and 10 votes ahead for another one in the current febrile political environment.

    thats FPTP
    A sensible Labour Party would be reflecting on the merits of a preferential voting system….
    Yes, Starmer has it within his power to change the voting system. He won't.
    Reform's manifesto supported PR though. So he could go for that if he likes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    What do you suggest? How are Reform going to fix it?

    Deal with tax loopholes comprehensively. Make multinationals pay their way.
    And then they all leave presumably. Tough choices only.
    Do you think Anazon will leave?
    I think multinationals will always find a way out from paying. I dont know how in every scenario but im confident their ability to do so exceeds the ability of government to close every loophole.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,739
    edited May 2
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    What do you suggest? How are Reform going to fix it?

    Deal with tax loopholes comprehensively. Make multinationals pay their way.
    And then they all leave presumably. Tough choices only.
    Do you think Anazon will leave?
    I think multinationals will always find a way out from paying. I dont know how in every scenario but im confident their ability to do so exceeds the ability of government to close every loophole.
    The problem is always that the way to get the mega-corp tax dodging is high turn-over / operating taxes, but for small and medium businesses they are absolute killers and of course politicians never seem to get this e.g. the employer VAT increase, mega-corp PLC can absorb that, a company with 10s of people, that becomes a huge bill in relation to their turnover.
  • Tory voters in Doncaster should be ashamed, they could have scared the crap out of that idiot Miliband.

    If farage hadn't told us Conservatives to f ourselves Reform would have won. It is Farage who lost that tight vote.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,093
    vik said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Let's be honest: although a fairly close result is fun, we really didn't need a result which oscillates between 4 votes ahead for one party and 10 votes ahead for another one in the current febrile political environment.

    thats FPTP
    A sensible Labour Party would be reflecting on the merits of a preferential voting system….
    Yes, exactly !

    My own guesstimate is that Labour would have gotten 80% of Green, LibDem, Liberal & Rejoin EU preferences.

    Even if we assume they get only 30% of the preferences of all the other parties, then that would still have given them 16,417 two-party preferred votes against 15,885 votes for Reform UK, and a Labour victory.
    Bollocks
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,245
    The problem with a Tory Reform pact is the notion that you can just add their vote totals together .

    The Tories would lose some of their voters who won’t support a pact . And there would be large tactical voting against any Tory Reform candidates .
  • IanB2 said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Let's be honest: although a fairly close result is fun, we really didn't need a result which oscillates between 4 votes ahead for one party and 10 votes ahead for another one in the current febrile political environment.

    thats FPTP
    A sensible Labour Party would be reflecting on the merits of a preferential voting system….
    Yes, Starmer has it within his power to change the voting system. He won't.
    When push comes to shove LD voters, not LD activists break 60 to 40 for the right. Would a LD voting farmer really vote Labour - come off it.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,318
    Reform has won over 50% of council results announced so far.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,568
    edited May 2

    IanB2 said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Let's be honest: although a fairly close result is fun, we really didn't need a result which oscillates between 4 votes ahead for one party and 10 votes ahead for another one in the current febrile political environment.

    thats FPTP
    A sensible Labour Party would be reflecting on the merits of a preferential voting system….
    Yes, Starmer has it within his power to change the voting system. He won't.
    One thing that never changes: Labour in opposition complains about the voting system, in government they do nothing to change it, even when they have an enormous majority and can do whatever they like.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,739
    edited May 2

    IanB2 said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Let's be honest: although a fairly close result is fun, we really didn't need a result which oscillates between 4 votes ahead for one party and 10 votes ahead for another one in the current febrile political environment.

    thats FPTP
    A sensible Labour Party would be reflecting on the merits of a preferential voting system….
    Yes, Starmer has it within his power to change the voting system. He won't.
    When push comes to shove LD voters, not LD activists break 60 to 40 for the right. Would a LD voting farmer really vote Labour - come off it.
    Nought as strange as folk e.g. like the not inconsiderable support the Lib Dems have always got from people who are anti-EU.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,808

    Tory voters in Doncaster should be ashamed, they could have scared the crap out of that idiot Miliband.

    If farage hadn't told us Conservatives to f ourselves Reform would have won. It is Farage who lost that tight vote.
    Nonsense the Tories just cant work out tactical voting.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,883
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    What do you suggest? How are Reform going to fix it?

    Deal with tax loopholes comprehensively. Make multinationals pay their way.
    And then they all leave presumably. Tough choices only.
    Do you think Anazon will leave?
    I think multinationals will always find a way out from paying. I dont know how in every scenario but im confident their ability to do so exceeds the ability of government to close every loophole.
    To fix the problems people feel in their daily lives you need to raise money from somewhere.

    To have a navy and coastguard of the size we would need to plow relentlessly up and down the channel like Reform voters seem to want you need to raise money from somewhere.

    Simple solutions to global problems. That’s Reform. But maybe we need to have a dose of the simplists, albeit as we see in the US I’m unsure that democracy in its current form will survive it.
  • If the Tories and Reform did a deal, could we see Labour / Lib Dems also do a deal? And we become more like Germany where in parts of the country parties don't stand against one another e.g Lib Dem have the South West to themselves.

    A Lab LD deal would cost Farron W&L without a doubt.
  • vikvik Posts: 306
    vik said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Let's be honest: although a fairly close result is fun, we really didn't need a result which oscillates between 4 votes ahead for one party and 10 votes ahead for another one in the current febrile political environment.

    thats FPTP
    A sensible Labour Party would be reflecting on the merits of a preferential voting system….
    Yes, exactly !

    My own guesstimate is that Labour would have gotten 80% of Green, LibDem, Liberal & Rejoin EU preferences.

    Even if we assume they get only 30% of the preferences of all the other parties, then that would still have given them 16,417 two-party preferred votes against 15,885 votes for Reform UK, and a Labour victory.
    This is based on the preference flows in Australian elections, where Labor gets 80% of Greens preferences. I expect Lib Dems/Liberal/Rejoin EU would also give 80% preferences to UK Labour.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,246

    Dura_Ace said:

    I think a few pb tories will be going on the proverbial "journey" over the next year or two.

    "Yeah mate, I mean if you really listen to what Nigel is saying then it makes a lot of sense."

    Looks like lots of Labour voters are already doing that
    Not necessarily. Just because there is a big swing between two parties doesn't mean the voters are moving directly between the two. The bigger effect here will be that Reform voters turned up, and Labour voters did not.

    This result is terrible if you are interested in reducing government spending or at least better targeting that support to those who need it most. If WFP really was the main factor, Reform can expect to sweep the country wherever there are pensioners or high levels of benefit claimants. That leaves Labour and the Conservatives to battle it out for those who actually work for a living.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,270
    edited May 2
    Eabhal said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I think a few pb tories will be going on the proverbial "journey" over the next year or two.

    "Yeah mate, I mean if you really listen to what Nigel is saying then it makes a lot of sense."

    Looks like lots of Labour voters are already doing that
    Not necessarily. Just because there is a big swing between two parties doesn't mean the voters are moving directly between the two. The bigger effect here will be that Reform voters turned up, and Labour voters did not.

    This result is terrible if you are interested in reducing government spending or at least better targeting that support to those who need it most. If WFP really was the main factor, Reform can expect to sweep the country wherever there are pensioners or high levels of benefit claimants. That leaves Labour and the Conservatives to battle it out for those who actually work for a living.
    The Tories lost the votes of most people who work for a living way back.

    And I’d guess that the votes they are now losing to Reform are leaving them more than ever merely a pensioners’ party.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721
    IanB2 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I think a few pb tories will be going on the proverbial "journey" over the next year or two.

    "Yeah mate, I mean if you really listen to what Nigel is saying then it makes a lot of sense."

    Looks like lots of Labour voters are already doing that
    Not necessarily. Just because there is a big swing between two parties doesn't mean the voters are moving directly between the two. The bigger effect here will be that Reform voters turned up, and Labour voters did not.

    This result is terrible if you are interested in reducing government spending or at least better targeting that support to those who need it most. If WFP really was the main factor, Reform can expect to sweep the country wherever there are pensioners or high levels of benefit claimants. That leaves Labour and the Conservatives to battle it out for those who actually work for a living.
    The Tories lost the votes of most people who work for a living way back
    Not only lost but enthusiastically abandoned those voters. Gotta chase the grey vote.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,270
    Jenkyns doing her speech after gaining 42% in Lincs
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721
    IanB2 said:

    Jenkyns doing her speech after gaining 42% in Lincs

    Did they resolve the allegation she was ineligible?
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,993

    If the Tories and Reform did a deal, could we see Labour / Lib Dems also do a deal? And we become more like Germany where in parts of the country parties don't stand against one another e.g Lib Dem have the South West to themselves.

    A Lab LD deal would cost Farron W&L without a doubt.
    Nearly all LibDem seats are blue-facing. If they end up in coalition with Labour, say sfter a close election next time, their support will tank. That's their problem - surviving electorally if in govt.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,245
    In the by-election polling the Lib Dem’s and Greens were expected to do better so clearly there was some tactical voting there .

    Clearly a bad night for Labour but they held on in 3 mayoral contests so it could have been worse .

    The Tories seriously though are in a worse state . And the real carnage doesn’t happen till later .
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,270
    edited May 2
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Jenkyns doing her speech after gaining 42% in Lincs

    Did they resolve the allegation she was ineligible?
    Yes. And she’s just rather bad temperedly referred to that and some other ‘smears’ in her speech
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721
    nico67 said:

    In the by-election polling the Lib Dem’s and Greens were expected to do better so clearly there was some tactical voting there .

    Clearly a bad night for Labour but they held on in 3 mayoral contests so it could have been worse .

    The Tories seriously though are in a worse state . And the real carnage doesn’t happen till later .

    They'll be thanking Labour for delaying so many elections.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,883
    It’s time the media stopped fawning over Farage and Tice and started asking them what their answers are - and how they would pay for them.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,270
    nico67 said:

    In the by-election polling the Lib Dem’s and Greens were expected to do better so clearly there was some tactical voting there .

    Clearly a bad night for Labour but they held on in 3 mayoral contests so it could have been worse .

    The Tories seriously though are in a worse state . And the real carnage doesn’t happen till later .

    If the previous Labour MP had merely died, they would have held the seat.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,558

    Tory voters in Doncaster should be ashamed, they could have scared the crap out of that idiot Miliband.

    Reform would have been first in Miliband's constituency.

    With the Conservatives first in Doncaster East and Axholme.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721

    It’s time the media stopped fawning over Farage and Tice and started asking them what their answers are - and how they would pay for them.

    Reform!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,563
    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,245
    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    In the by-election polling the Lib Dem’s and Greens were expected to do better so clearly there was some tactical voting there .

    Clearly a bad night for Labour but they held on in 3 mayoral contests so it could have been worse .

    The Tories seriously though are in a worse state . And the real carnage doesn’t happen till later .

    They'll be thanking Labour for delaying so many elections.
    Yes the cancelled elections were in one area where Reform would have trounced them and in the other where Lib Dem’s would have done the same .
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,558

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    There has been no austerity.

    There have been some cuts but these have been matched by profligacy in other spending.

    Certainly there has been no austerity on the oldies.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,961
    Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.

    Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.

    Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,245

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,437
    A serendipitous juxtaposition on my Twitter.
    One tweet featuring populist, ill conceived, backward-looking rubbish that would shame a 5 year old and the other..well, you know the rest.


  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,944
    IanB2 said:

    Jenkyns doing her speech after gaining 42% in Lincs

    You can't keep a good woman down.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,612
    tlg86 said:

    We're now at the hanging chad stage of the count in Runcorn and Helsby.

    And with Reform having won, does it move it to the hang the chavs stage?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,739
    edited May 2

    Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.

    Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.

    Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.

    I think the media narrative would be different. It would be Nigel you haven't managed to win many mayoral races, you lost this by-election, why are you failing to win against such an unpopular government and Tory party. Instead the headline is Reform pull off stunning by-election victory.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,558
    edited May 2
    The North Lincolnshire vote is awful for Labour:

    Con 14,003
    Ref 12,993
    Lab 4,825

    Has Labour ever done worse in an election in greater Scunthorpe ?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,909
    IanB2 said:

    nico67 said:

    In the by-election polling the Lib Dem’s and Greens were expected to do better so clearly there was some tactical voting there .

    Clearly a bad night for Labour but they held on in 3 mayoral contests so it could have been worse .

    The Tories seriously though are in a worse state . And the real carnage doesn’t happen till later .

    If the previous Labour MP had merely died, they would have held the seat.
    With a result that close, there’s a myriad of ifs that Labour would have won with.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,432
    kle4 said:

    It’s time the media stopped fawning over Farage and Tice and started asking them what their answers are - and how they would pay for them.

    Reform!
    As of now, Andrea Jenkyns is the most powerful Reform politician in the land.

    It's going to be fascinating to see how she, Farage... and Lincolnshire respond to that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,563
    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    None, because everyone loves it across all parties and all ages - and we all saw the shitstorm that (quite rightly) qualifying the menial WFA caused.

    You'd have to make the political and economic case consistently for years to change public opinion and prepare the ground.

    Politicians seem to have lost the art of doing this.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,558
    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    The one in power when the financial markets tells them to.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,270

    kle4 said:

    It’s time the media stopped fawning over Farage and Tice and started asking them what their answers are - and how they would pay for them.

    Reform!
    As of now, Andrea Jenkyns is the most powerful Reform politician in the land.

    It's going to be fascinating to see how she, Farage... and Lincolnshire respond to that.
    They ought to be pleased to have some prominent women, now
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,270

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    None, because everyone loves it across all parties and all ages - and we all saw the shitstorm that (quite rightly) qualifying the menial WFA caused.

    You'd have to make the political and economic case consistently for years to change public opinion and prepare the ground.

    Politicians seem to have lost the art of doing this.
    Merge tax and NI, and the lock becomes less of an issue
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,961
    Andy_JS said:

    Economist article which indirectly explains why Farage & co are doing well.

    "Police forces have stepped back from dealing with petty crime: shoplifting has octupled over the past decade; a well-oiled network ferries stolen phones to shopping malls in Shenzhen within a fortnight. Prosecution rates have plummeted and the prisons are full. The National Health Service (NHS) rations care, with waiting-lists running into the millions. Roads are crumbling faster than local councils can fix them.
    Behind each of these woes lies a shift in the priorities of the state, which has slowly been reshaped over the past decade or two. Years of feeble economic growth and yo-yoing austerity have led to a country-size triage operation. Urgent needs are still met, but only by neglecting the day-to-day basics that keep the governed consenting. This “state of last resort” stretches from the NHS to the asylum system, but is starkest in street-level services and policing." (£)

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/05/01/britains-social-contract-is-fraying

    This very neatly summarises the malaise which is the ruins of Britain. We're still here, we're still going, but everything is tired and crumbling at best. Or broken and missing at worst.

    For all that the remaining PB Tories will be on trying to defend and deflect, the buck really does stop with them. They have departed from a period of chaotic government having left the social fabric stretched and broken. Pick a service - criminal justice, education, health, transport, local councils etc etc etc - all left in ruins.

    Labour have made stupid mistakes in their months in office but it is only months. They will get the blame for the mistakes not because WFA is seismic, but because it is totemic - a government who has no clue what to do about the buggered mess they inherited, left picking around the edges with yet more cuts to make things that little bit worse.

    This is the rise of Reform. They may not have the answers to fix these broken communities. But unlike Labour and the Tories they at least recognise that they are broken.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,371
    I thought Runcorn was close, and Lab value, so good to see that borne out. But it’s a horrendous result for them. They’ll be happier to have clung on to those few mayoralties.

    I think there’s scope after tonight for Reform to grab a few more % in the polls.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 711
    Current and ex-councillors invited to jump in.

    How long before a RefUK councillor seeing the amount of work they have to do, decides to jump ship to spend more time with their family / mistress / Wetherspoons?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,808
    lol Im watching Nigel Huddleston claiming the Conservative party has conservative principles.
    He must have missed the last 10 years.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,093

    Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.

    Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.

    Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.

    Yes, we are in danger of understating the Reform result in Runcorn. Labour had a VAST majority and this is one of the safest Labour seats in the country. Lost

    Every single Labour MP outside inner London (and a few big, ethnic cities) is in danger

    Labour have had a year. A year to turn the economy around and - lol - “smash the gangs”. They’ve done neither. They are catastrophic. They’re not gonna suddenly change into something great

    A humongous defeat beckons in 28-29

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,437

    The North Lincolnshire vote is awful for Labour:

    Con 14,003
    Ref 12,993
    Lab 4,825

    Has Labour ever done worse in an election in greater Scunthorpe ?

    Evidently voters not very grateful for the steelworks being saved.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,883

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    None, because everyone loves it across all parties and all ages - and we all saw the shitstorm that (quite rightly) qualifying the menial WFA caused.

    You'd have to make the political and economic case consistently for years to change public opinion and prepare the ground.

    Politicians seem to have lost the art of doing this.
    Because of social media. Politics (life) changed forever with the advent of social media.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,563
    Andrea Jenkyns won. Cha-ching.

    Wonder how long it will take Clueless to pay out. Hopefully not too long now they're part of the broader Ladbrokes group.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,808
    Leon said:

    Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.

    Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.

    Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.

    Yes, we are in danger of understating the Reform result in Runcorn. Labour had a VAST majority and this is one of the safest Labour seats in the country. Lost

    Every single Labour MP outside inner London (and a few big, ethnic cities) is in danger

    Labour have had a year. A year to turn the economy around and - lol - “smash the gangs”. They’ve done neither. They are catastrophic. They’re not gonna suddenly change into something great

    A humongous defeat beckons in 28-29

    Yes but think of all those houses theyre building

    oh wait.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,648
    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    I think perhaps there's a chance to raise pensions by X%, but then delink from the locks.
    I'd keep inflation.

    Then when people say you are cutting pensions, you can respond - we are increasing them by mire than ever ...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721
    Battlebus said:

    Current and ex-councillors invited to jump in.

    How long before a RefUK councillor seeing the amount of work they have to do, decides to jump ship to spend more time with their family / mistress / Wetherspoons?

    You can do very little as a councillor if you're content to be a shit one. Its just most people when they get in feel obligated to work hard. Sometimes too much in truth, since it'll fill your hours if you let it.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,245
    Leon said:

    Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.

    Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.

    Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.

    Yes, we are in danger of understating the Reform result in Runcorn. Labour had a VAST majority and this is one of the safest Labour seats in the country. Lost

    Every single Labour MP outside inner London (and a few big, ethnic cities) is in danger

    Labour have had a year. A year to turn the economy around and - lol - “smash the gangs”. They’ve done neither. They are catastrophic. They’re not gonna suddenly change into something great

    A humongous defeat beckons in 28-29

    That’s a long time away and a lot can happen before then .
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,558
    On the removal of wfa do we know how many oldies froze to death this winter ?

    Weren't we promised that it would be other four thousand ?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,648
    Battlebus said:

    Current and ex-councillors invited to jump in.

    How long before a RefUK councillor seeing the amount of work they have to do, decides to jump ship to spend more time with their family / mistress / Wetherspoons?

    I think all the 'work' is kinda optional no? You don't *have* to do anything...
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,322

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    What do you suggest? How are Reform going to fix it?

    Deal with tax loopholes comprehensively. Make multinationals pay their way.
    And then they all leave presumably. Tough choices only.
    Do you think Anazon will leave?
    I think multinationals will always find a way out from paying. I dont know how in every scenario but im confident their ability to do so exceeds the ability of government to close every loophole.
    To fix the problems people feel in their daily lives you need to raise money from somewhere.

    To have a navy and coastguard of the size we would need to plow relentlessly up and down the channel like Reform voters seem to want you need to raise money from somewhere.

    Simple solutions to global problems. That’s Reform. But maybe we need to have a dose of the simplists, albeit as we see in the US I’m unsure that democracy in its current form will survive it.
    I'd agree that a lot of Reform's budgeting is a bit magic money tree, but ironically a channel tow backs policy would almost certainly be cost saving. We're spending something like £3Bn a year on hotels for asylum seekers. I'd be surprised if the kit and personnel to push back 95% of boats would cost half that.

    That said, even cheaper would be to guarantee that we will 100% refuse asylum and return you to wherever we think you came from if you arrive by small boat from France, no matter how strong and/or bleeding heart your case.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721

    The North Lincolnshire vote is awful for Labour:

    Con 14,003
    Ref 12,993
    Lab 4,825

    Has Labour ever done worse in an election in greater Scunthorpe ?

    Evidently voters not very grateful for the steelworks being saved.
    Voters don't do gratitude, never have.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,961

    Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.

    Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.

    Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.

    I think the media narrative would be different. It would be Nigel you haven't managed to win many mayoral races, you lost this by-election, why are you failing to win against such an unpopular government and Tory party. Instead the headline is Reform pull off stunning by-election victory.
    I've scan read the overnight and noted the utter mess that the media narrative - Kuennesberg especially - have made of covering this.

    Lets say the swing in R&H was 17.2% instead of 17.4%. Labour win by a handful of votes one of which was my apocryphal cock and balls neatly drawn in their candidate's box. How does Labour spin a swing so large as to utterly demolish them if repeated? R&H is soooooooo far down the list of places that the fukers should be competitive in that had it not been for a byelection you'd have to be mad to suggest it.

    West of England mayoralty. Wasn't it supposed to be the Greens against Labour? Reform came second. Again, not their area at all but look at the numbers.

    We will see this played out all day today once counts get going.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,093

    Leon said:

    Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.

    Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.

    Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.

    Yes, we are in danger of understating the Reform result in Runcorn. Labour had a VAST majority and this is one of the safest Labour seats in the country. Lost

    Every single Labour MP outside inner London (and a few big, ethnic cities) is in danger

    Labour have had a year. A year to turn the economy around and - lol - “smash the gangs”. They’ve done neither. They are catastrophic. They’re not gonna suddenly change into something great

    A humongous defeat beckons in 28-29

    Yes but think of all those houses theyre building

    oh wait.
    Labour are just so…. Bad


    I expected them to annoy me. Even infuriate me. Woke, etc

    But I also expected a basic level of competence which might keep them leading in the polls for a couple of years. Yet not. They are down at 21-23%

    Incredible
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,412

    Andrea Jenkyns won. Cha-ching.

    Wonder how long it will take Clueless to pay out. Hopefully not too long now they're part of the broader Ladbrokes group.

    Well, the 3.5 on Lab was a good value loser.

    My Green over LD at evens was a good call though. So so far slightly up.

    The Tories look like toast, and I don't think getting rid of Kemi will fix it, though that is likely to be what they try.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,437
    rkrkrk said:

    Battlebus said:

    Current and ex-councillors invited to jump in.

    How long before a RefUK councillor seeing the amount of work they have to do, decides to jump ship to spend more time with their family / mistress / Wetherspoons?

    I think all the 'work' is kinda optional no? You don't *have* to do anything...
    Still, the shift that Farage has put in for Clacton should be inspirational to other ‘Reformers’.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,462

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    I agree we can't afford it but I know too many people in poverty to describe them as being kept in clover.

    Good morning, everyone. I hope those who monitored the results as they were announced had a good night.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,245

    Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.

    Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.

    Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.

    I think the media narrative would be different. It would be Nigel you haven't managed to win many mayoral races, you lost this by-election, why are you failing to win against such an unpopular government and Tory party. Instead the headline is Reform pull off stunning by-election victory.
    I've scan read the overnight and noted the utter mess that the media narrative - Kuennesberg especially - have made of covering this.

    Lets say the swing in R&H was 17.2% instead of 17.4%. Labour win by a handful of votes one of which was my apocryphal cock and balls neatly drawn in their candidate's box. How does Labour spin a swing so large as to utterly demolish them if repeated? R&H is soooooooo far down the list of places that the fukers should be competitive in that had it not been for a byelection you'd have to be mad to suggest it.

    West of England mayoralty. Wasn't it supposed to be the Greens against Labour? Reform came second. Again, not their area at all but look at the numbers.

    We will see this played out all day today once counts get going.
    But it’s a by-election and this hasn’t been after a GE campaign where Farage and co will be under more scrutiny .

    Maybe Reeves might realise that making more cuts isn’t the answer .
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,462

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    There has been no austerity.

    There have been some cuts but these have been matched by profligacy in other spending.

    Certainly there has been no austerity on the oldies.
    Do you not know anyone who is poor?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,369

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    What do you suggest? How are Reform going to fix it?

    Deal with tax loopholes comprehensively. Make multinationals pay their way.
    And then they all leave presumably. Tough choices only.
    Do you think Anazon will leave?
    I think multinationals will always find a way out from paying. I dont know how in every scenario but im confident their ability to do so exceeds the ability of government to close every loophole.
    To fix the problems people feel in their daily lives you need to raise money from somewhere.

    To have a navy and coastguard of the size we would need to plow relentlessly up and down the channel like Reform voters seem to want you need to raise money from somewhere.
    The crossings are only really feasible on a regular basis from Dunkerque to Boulogne, so maybe a 30km stretch. The RN has ample assets to police that considering that they only have to do it when the weather is favourable and it doesn't need anything sophisticated.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,909

    Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.

    Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.

    Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.

    I think the media narrative would be different. It would be Nigel you haven't managed to win many mayoral races, you lost this by-election, why are you failing to win against such an unpopular government and Tory party. Instead the headline is Reform pull off stunning by-election victory.
    I've scan read the overnight and noted the utter mess that the media narrative - Kuennesberg especially - have made of covering this.

    Lets say the swing in R&H was 17.2% instead of 17.4%. Labour win by a handful of votes one of which was my apocryphal cock and balls neatly drawn in their candidate's box. How does Labour spin a swing so large as to utterly demolish them if repeated? R&H is soooooooo far down the list of places that the fukers should be competitive in that had it not been for a byelection you'd have to be mad to suggest it.

    West of England mayoralty. Wasn't it supposed to be the Greens against Labour? Reform came second. Again, not their area at all but look at the numbers.

    We will see this played out all day today once counts get going.
    Huge swings in by-elections are commonplace. Don’t over-interpret them. It’s been a very good night for RefUK, but many a by-election victory has evaporated at the next general.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,462
    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    I think Labour will have to.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,844

    It’s time the media stopped fawning over Farage and Tice and started asking them what their answers are - and how they would pay for them.

    It’s all the media’s fault !!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,270
    Reform should thank Labour for going round creating all these new high profile mayoral positions, for them to have a shot at. There’ll be another batch of them next year.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,770

    NEW THREAD

  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,462

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    None, because everyone loves it across all parties and all ages - and we all saw the shitstorm that (quite rightly) qualifying the menial WFA caused.

    You'd have to make the political and economic case consistently for years to change public opinion and prepare the ground.

    Politicians seem to have lost the art of doing this.
    A big part of the WFA problem is the cliff edge of the qualifier - is it Pension Credit? £5 over the limit must lose you hundreds of pounds.
  • rkrkrk said:

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    I think perhaps there's a chance to raise pensions by X%, but then delink from the locks.
    I'd keep inflation.

    Then when people say you are cutting pensions, you can respond - we are increasing them by mire than ever ...
    They should move it to a cumulative basis - so highest of the increase of the three measures since 2025 - it would take the sting out of it while making the change too complicated for most to get worked up about
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,270
    Leon said:

    Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.

    Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.

    Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.

    Yes, we are in danger of understating the Reform result in Runcorn. Labour had a VAST majority and this is one of the safest Labour seats in the country. Lost

    Every single Labour MP outside inner London (and a few big, ethnic cities) is in danger

    Labour have had a year. A year to turn the economy around and - lol - “smash the gangs”. They’ve done neither. They are catastrophic. They’re not gonna suddenly change into something great

    A humongous defeat beckons in 28-29

    Calm down, dear.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,267
    Clearly Reform will be delighted to have won the Runcorn by election but some relief in Labour they kept the margin down to only six votes.

    Labour have also won most of the Mayoral elections declared so far albeit Reform have won Lincolnshire
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,993

    The North Lincolnshire vote is awful for Labour:

    Con 14,003
    Ref 12,993
    Lab 4,825

    Has Labour ever done worse in an election in greater Scunthorpe ?

    Given the overall Lincs result, how come Tories in lead here? Would have thought Scunthorpe prime Reform area.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,558
    AnneJGP said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    There has been no austerity.

    There have been some cuts but these have been matched by profligacy in other spending.

    Certainly there has been no austerity on the oldies.
    Do you not know anyone who is poor?
    That depends on how you define poor.

    The people I do know either work, are oldies or are people who have retired early (sometimes on grounds of 'ill health').

    Very few would seem to be financially struggling to me.

    I suppose that the most likely way to know poor people is to be poor yourself.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,267

    The North Lincolnshire vote is awful for Labour:

    Con 14,003
    Ref 12,993
    Lab 4,825

    Has Labour ever done worse in an election in greater Scunthorpe ?

    Evidently voters not very grateful for the steelworks being saved.
    Reform backed nationalising them anyway as did even the Tories reluctantly
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,563
    AnneJGP said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    I agree we can't afford it but I know too many people in poverty to describe them as being kept in clover.

    Unfortunately, that's where the big expenditure is - social welfare and healthcare in advanced age - and where the savings must be made.

    There are no easy choices.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,563
    AnneJGP said:

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    None, because everyone loves it across all parties and all ages - and we all saw the shitstorm that (quite rightly) qualifying the menial WFA caused.

    You'd have to make the political and economic case consistently for years to change public opinion and prepare the ground.

    Politicians seem to have lost the art of doing this.
    A big part of the WFA problem is the cliff edge of the qualifier - is it Pension Credit? £5 over the limit must lose you hundreds of pounds.
    Yes, there are all sorts of stupid cliff edges in this country.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,844
    Sense being spoken by Caroline Flint on the GMB politics slot. Usual stuff. Wake up call. Ignoring people’s concerns. Telling people,what to think. Etc etc. interesting comment. Many of these are former Labour voters. Once they leave it’s not easy to get them back.

    I suspect the main parties will do what they always do. Say they’re in listening mode, wring their hands, tell the voters they really care about them and just keep on down the same path.

    As for local govt, unless the funding (or the obligations on councils such as ferrying kids to school in taxis) is radically reformed, it is fucked and I suspect many councillors will just want to be like mine. Getting pictures on the local groups putting in a new bench or a new planter with their budget.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,844

    Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.

    Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.

    Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.

    I think the media narrative would be different. It would be Nigel you haven't managed to win many mayoral races, you lost this by-election, why are you failing to win against such an unpopular government and Tory party. Instead the headline is Reform pull off stunning by-election victory.
    I've scan read the overnight and noted the utter mess that the media narrative - Kuennesberg especially - have made of covering this.

    Lets say the swing in R&H was 17.2% instead of 17.4%. Labour win by a handful of votes one of which was my apocryphal cock and balls neatly drawn in their candidate's box. How does Labour spin a swing so large as to utterly demolish them if repeated? R&H is soooooooo far down the list of places that the fukers should be competitive in that had it not been for a byelection you'd have to be mad to suggest it.

    West of England mayoralty. Wasn't it supposed to be the Greens against Labour? Reform came second. Again, not their area at all but look at the numbers.

    We will see this played out all day today once counts get going.
    Huge swings in by-elections are commonplace. Don’t over-interpret them. It’s been a very good night for RefUK, but many a by-election victory has evaporated at the next general.
    Not in 2024 though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,267
    IanB2 said:

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    None, because everyone loves it across all parties and all ages - and we all saw the shitstorm that (quite rightly) qualifying the menial WFA caused.

    You'd have to make the political and economic case consistently for years to change public opinion and prepare the ground.

    Politicians seem to have lost the art of doing this.
    Merge tax and NI, and the lock becomes less of an issue
    No NI should be ringfenced to fund the state pension, contributory unemployment benefits and some social care
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,267
    Leon said:

    Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.

    Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.

    Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.

    Yes, we are in danger of understating the Reform result in Runcorn. Labour had a VAST majority and this is one of the safest Labour seats in the country. Lost

    Every single Labour MP outside inner London (and a few big, ethnic cities) is in danger

    Labour have had a year. A year to turn the economy around and - lol - “smash the gangs”. They’ve done neither. They are catastrophic. They’re not gonna suddenly change into something great

    A humongous defeat beckons in 28-29

    Nothing is certain in politics, a year ago the Canadian Conservatives were heading for a landslide of epic proportions but the Liberals have just been narrowly re elected
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,873
    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    It's not just the state pension, public sector pensions need a 30-40% haircut too. In too many areas we're living well beyond our means and our welfare state is far, far beyond a safety net. Cut a million people from state employment to take us back to 2017, taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers, merge NI and income tax so that non-working income is taxed at the same rate as working income, cut to £2k the cash ISA allowance, push through a 30-40% haircut for defined benefit pensions (even for people currently receiving them), introduce much, much tougher criteria to receive disability benefits and exclude all but 5% of the most serious mental health cases by default. The rest can go back to work or live on £450 per month or whatever UC is for unemployed people. Also get rid of UC, move back to the old system if JSA and ESA, UC is an experiment that hasn't worked, it's just encouraged people to game the system worse than ever.

    I think if Labour started that programme today by the end of the parliament we could be in a position to actually pay front line service staff more and attract better quality candidates for teachers, police, nurses etc...

    What we have now is an underfunded and hugely over funded state at the same time it's literally the worst of both worlds.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,245
    The party that ends the triple lock can expect to get hammered at an election . Unless you have cross party support it’s never going to happen .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,267

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    The one in power when the financial markets tells them to.
    Financial markets don't crash over long held policies like the triple lock.

    Only Labour could even consider doing it anyway given Reform and even more so the Tories have such a big percentage of their vote from pensioners
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,844
    nico67 said:

    The problem with a Tory Reform pact is the notion that you can just add their vote totals together .

    The Tories would lose some of their voters who won’t support a pact . And there would be large tactical voting against any Tory Reform candidates .

    Many Reform voters are lapsed Labour voters. Certainly in my area. They won’t want to vote Tory either. Their voting Reform partly as NOTA and partly for the reasons Rochdale outlined, certainly around here. They’re not all thick, stupid, gullible, racist. Many just want a better life, tidier streets, less petty crime, less potholes and some civic pride.

    Reform may surprise on the upside (trademark PB) or not, but in Durham labour were shit, the coalition were shit, so why not give them a go.

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,246
    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    It's not just the state pension, public sector pensions need a 30-40% haircut too. In too many areas we're living well beyond our means and our welfare state is far, far beyond a safety net. Cut a million people from state employment to take us back to 2017, taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers, merge NI and income tax so that non-working income is taxed at the same rate as working income, cut to £2k the cash ISA allowance, push through a 30-40% haircut for defined benefit pensions (even for people currently receiving them), introduce much, much tougher criteria to receive disability benefits and exclude all but 5% of the most serious mental health cases by default. The rest can go back to work or live on £450 per month or whatever UC is for unemployed people. Also get rid of UC, move back to the old system if JSA and ESA, UC is an experiment that hasn't worked, it's just encouraged people to game the system worse than ever.

    I think if Labour started that programme today by the end of the parliament we could be in a position to actually pay front line service staff more and attract better quality candidates for teachers, police, nurses etc...

    What we have now is an underfunded and hugely over funded state at the same time it's literally the worst of both worlds.
    You're wrong about UC - it's done a very good at removing work disincentives. The issue is that there are still too many benefits that haven't been rolled into it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,412

    AnneJGP said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    I agree we can't afford it but I know too many people in poverty to describe them as being kept in clover.

    Unfortunately, that's where the big expenditure is - social welfare and healthcare in advanced age - and where the savings must be made.

    There are no easy choices.
    Yet when even small cuts are made (such as WFP) look at the reaction. The voters deserting Labour and Tories want more Free Owls, not fewer. That seems especially true of Reform voters.

    It's not easy to find places to cut, nor to raise tax.

    This show the money is spent.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_spending_in_the_United_Kingdom#:~:text=Pie chart of UK government,which totals £124 billion.

    Most striking to me is the £116 billion on debt interest, up from £43 billion in 18-19, so close to half of the spending on health, and nearly twice what we spend on defence. Continuing a massive budget deficit just makes that worse.

  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,441
    Foxy said:

    Andrea Jenkyns won. Cha-ching.

    Wonder how long it will take Clueless to pay out. Hopefully not too long now they're part of the broader Ladbrokes group.

    Well, the 3.5 on Lab was a good value loser.

    My Green over LD at evens was a good call though. So so far slightly up.

    The Tories look like toast, and I don't think getting rid of Kemi will fix it, though that is likely to be what they try.
    I think the Tories will live to fight another day. Their vote has been savaged by RefUK, but they are still in the fight. The interesting thing is that the votes are splitting evenly, so Labour and the Lib Dems will scrape through in some places because the Tories and RefUk will cancel each other out.
    In a 4/5 party system, the split for Farage is actually quite low. I don't think RefUK can claim a landslide- I think the Tories may still hold most seats at the end of the day.
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