Political betting is being blamed for the Tories losing control of every council tonight
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Perhaps they need to see some bar charts ;-)Alanbrooke said:Tory voters in Doncaster should be ashamed, they could have scared the crap out of that idiot Miliband.
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Yes, exactly !IanB2 said:
A sensible Labour Party would be reflecting on the merits of a preferential voting system….Nunu3 said:
thats FPTPAndy_JS said:Let's be honest: although a fairly close result is fun, we really didn't need a result which oscillates between 4 votes ahead for one party and 10 votes ahead for another one in the current febrile political environment.
My own guesstimate is that Labour would have gotten 80% of Green, LibDem, Liberal & Rejoin EU preferences.
Even if we assume they get only 30% of the preferences of all the other parties, then that would still have given them 16,417 two-party preferred votes against 15,885 votes for Reform UK, and a Labour victory.2 -
Hmm.FrancisUrquhart said:
Looking at her back story seems like she doesn't shy away from having bust ups when she was a Tory.JosiasJessop said:Congrats to the new MP for Runcorn and Helsby, and commiserations to the loser. Such a close loss must really hurt.
Now, any betting as to how long it is before the new MP falls out with Farage?
And I don't often say this and hopefully will never need to write it again. Good luck to the Tory candidates in today's counts.
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Do you think Amazon will leave? Apple?kle4 said:
And then they all leave presumably. Tough choices only.Monksfield said:
What do you suggest? How are Reform going to fix it?Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
Deal with tax loopholes comprehensively. Make multinationals pay their way.0 -
Reform's manifesto supported PR though. So he could go for that if he likes.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, Starmer has it within his power to change the voting system. He won't.IanB2 said:
A sensible Labour Party would be reflecting on the merits of a preferential voting system….Nunu3 said:
thats FPTPAndy_JS said:Let's be honest: although a fairly close result is fun, we really didn't need a result which oscillates between 4 votes ahead for one party and 10 votes ahead for another one in the current febrile political environment.
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I think multinationals will always find a way out from paying. I dont know how in every scenario but im confident their ability to do so exceeds the ability of government to close every loophole.Monksfield said:
Do you think Anazon will leave?kle4 said:
And then they all leave presumably. Tough choices only.Monksfield said:
What do you suggest? How are Reform going to fix it?Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
Deal with tax loopholes comprehensively. Make multinationals pay their way.1 -
The problem is always that the way to get the mega-corp tax dodging is high turn-over / operating taxes, but for small and medium businesses they are absolute killers and of course politicians never seem to get this e.g. the employer VAT increase, mega-corp PLC can absorb that, a company with 10s of people, that becomes a huge bill in relation to their turnover.kle4 said:
I think multinationals will always find a way out from paying. I dont know how in every scenario but im confident their ability to do so exceeds the ability of government to close every loophole.Monksfield said:
Do you think Anazon will leave?kle4 said:
And then they all leave presumably. Tough choices only.Monksfield said:
What do you suggest? How are Reform going to fix it?Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
Deal with tax loopholes comprehensively. Make multinationals pay their way.2 -
If farage hadn't told us Conservatives to f ourselves Reform would have won. It is Farage who lost that tight vote.Alanbrooke said:Tory voters in Doncaster should be ashamed, they could have scared the crap out of that idiot Miliband.
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Bollocksvik said:
Yes, exactly !IanB2 said:
A sensible Labour Party would be reflecting on the merits of a preferential voting system….Nunu3 said:
thats FPTPAndy_JS said:Let's be honest: although a fairly close result is fun, we really didn't need a result which oscillates between 4 votes ahead for one party and 10 votes ahead for another one in the current febrile political environment.
My own guesstimate is that Labour would have gotten 80% of Green, LibDem, Liberal & Rejoin EU preferences.
Even if we assume they get only 30% of the preferences of all the other parties, then that would still have given them 16,417 two-party preferred votes against 15,885 votes for Reform UK, and a Labour victory.0 -
The problem with a Tory Reform pact is the notion that you can just add their vote totals together .
The Tories would lose some of their voters who won’t support a pact . And there would be large tactical voting against any Tory Reform candidates .3 -
When push comes to shove LD voters, not LD activists break 60 to 40 for the right. Would a LD voting farmer really vote Labour - come off it.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, Starmer has it within his power to change the voting system. He won't.IanB2 said:
A sensible Labour Party would be reflecting on the merits of a preferential voting system….Nunu3 said:
thats FPTPAndy_JS said:Let's be honest: although a fairly close result is fun, we really didn't need a result which oscillates between 4 votes ahead for one party and 10 votes ahead for another one in the current febrile political environment.
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Reform has won over 50% of council results announced so far.0
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One thing that never changes: Labour in opposition complains about the voting system, in government they do nothing to change it, even when they have an enormous majority and can do whatever they like.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, Starmer has it within his power to change the voting system. He won't.IanB2 said:
A sensible Labour Party would be reflecting on the merits of a preferential voting system….Nunu3 said:
thats FPTPAndy_JS said:Let's be honest: although a fairly close result is fun, we really didn't need a result which oscillates between 4 votes ahead for one party and 10 votes ahead for another one in the current febrile political environment.
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Nought as strange as folk e.g. like the not inconsiderable support the Lib Dems have always got from people who are anti-EU.A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:
When push comes to shove LD voters, not LD activists break 60 to 40 for the right. Would a LD voting farmer really vote Labour - come off it.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, Starmer has it within his power to change the voting system. He won't.IanB2 said:
A sensible Labour Party would be reflecting on the merits of a preferential voting system….Nunu3 said:
thats FPTPAndy_JS said:Let's be honest: although a fairly close result is fun, we really didn't need a result which oscillates between 4 votes ahead for one party and 10 votes ahead for another one in the current febrile political environment.
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Nonsense the Tories just cant work out tactical voting.A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:
If farage hadn't told us Conservatives to f ourselves Reform would have won. It is Farage who lost that tight vote.Alanbrooke said:Tory voters in Doncaster should be ashamed, they could have scared the crap out of that idiot Miliband.
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To fix the problems people feel in their daily lives you need to raise money from somewhere.kle4 said:
I think multinationals will always find a way out from paying. I dont know how in every scenario but im confident their ability to do so exceeds the ability of government to close every loophole.Monksfield said:
Do you think Anazon will leave?kle4 said:
And then they all leave presumably. Tough choices only.Monksfield said:
What do you suggest? How are Reform going to fix it?Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
Deal with tax loopholes comprehensively. Make multinationals pay their way.
To have a navy and coastguard of the size we would need to plow relentlessly up and down the channel like Reform voters seem to want you need to raise money from somewhere.
Simple solutions to global problems. That’s Reform. But maybe we need to have a dose of the simplists, albeit as we see in the US I’m unsure that democracy in its current form will survive it.2 -
A Lab LD deal would cost Farron W&L without a doubt.FrancisUrquhart said:If the Tories and Reform did a deal, could we see Labour / Lib Dems also do a deal? And we become more like Germany where in parts of the country parties don't stand against one another e.g Lib Dem have the South West to themselves.
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This is based on the preference flows in Australian elections, where Labor gets 80% of Greens preferences. I expect Lib Dems/Liberal/Rejoin EU would also give 80% preferences to UK Labour.vik said:
Yes, exactly !IanB2 said:
A sensible Labour Party would be reflecting on the merits of a preferential voting system….Nunu3 said:
thats FPTPAndy_JS said:Let's be honest: although a fairly close result is fun, we really didn't need a result which oscillates between 4 votes ahead for one party and 10 votes ahead for another one in the current febrile political environment.
My own guesstimate is that Labour would have gotten 80% of Green, LibDem, Liberal & Rejoin EU preferences.
Even if we assume they get only 30% of the preferences of all the other parties, then that would still have given them 16,417 two-party preferred votes against 15,885 votes for Reform UK, and a Labour victory.0 -
I wonder which goat will be scaped?
https://x.com/fisherandrew79/status/1918174500405100825?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q0 -
Not necessarily. Just because there is a big swing between two parties doesn't mean the voters are moving directly between the two. The bigger effect here will be that Reform voters turned up, and Labour voters did not.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks like lots of Labour voters are already doing thatDura_Ace said:I think a few pb tories will be going on the proverbial "journey" over the next year or two.
"Yeah mate, I mean if you really listen to what Nigel is saying then it makes a lot of sense."
This result is terrible if you are interested in reducing government spending or at least better targeting that support to those who need it most. If WFP really was the main factor, Reform can expect to sweep the country wherever there are pensioners or high levels of benefit claimants. That leaves Labour and the Conservatives to battle it out for those who actually work for a living.1 -
The Tories lost the votes of most people who work for a living way back.Eabhal said:
Not necessarily. Just because there is a big swing between two parties doesn't mean the voters are moving directly between the two. The bigger effect here will be that Reform voters turned up, and Labour voters did not.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks like lots of Labour voters are already doing thatDura_Ace said:I think a few pb tories will be going on the proverbial "journey" over the next year or two.
"Yeah mate, I mean if you really listen to what Nigel is saying then it makes a lot of sense."
This result is terrible if you are interested in reducing government spending or at least better targeting that support to those who need it most. If WFP really was the main factor, Reform can expect to sweep the country wherever there are pensioners or high levels of benefit claimants. That leaves Labour and the Conservatives to battle it out for those who actually work for a living.
And I’d guess that the votes they are now losing to Reform are leaving them more than ever merely a pensioners’ party.1 -
Morning everyone. I did not stay up, so catching up on results now. Wow. Close, the by-election and the mayoral results. Clearly a good night for Reform UK: an MP, close seconds in mayoral races and a mayoral win expected. But they might be disappointed not to have done better. A better night than I expected for Labour: I thought they’d be trounced in Runcorn and they’ve won 3 mayors, even West of England.
The Conservatives were badly squeezed in Runcorn, but their vote held up better than it might have in the mayoral races, so not a complete disaster? The Greens will be disappointed by 3rd in the West of England and you could, mischievously, argue that they gave Runcorn to Reform UK! We await some LibDem-friendlier areas to assess their performance.
The clear loser is FPTP. Candidates winning on 25% is not sustainable. Low turnouts aren’t good either.5 -
Not only lost but enthusiastically abandoned those voters. Gotta chase the grey vote.IanB2 said:
The Tories lost the votes of most people who work for a living way backEabhal said:
Not necessarily. Just because there is a big swing between two parties doesn't mean the voters are moving directly between the two. The bigger effect here will be that Reform voters turned up, and Labour voters did not.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks like lots of Labour voters are already doing thatDura_Ace said:I think a few pb tories will be going on the proverbial "journey" over the next year or two.
"Yeah mate, I mean if you really listen to what Nigel is saying then it makes a lot of sense."
This result is terrible if you are interested in reducing government spending or at least better targeting that support to those who need it most. If WFP really was the main factor, Reform can expect to sweep the country wherever there are pensioners or high levels of benefit claimants. That leaves Labour and the Conservatives to battle it out for those who actually work for a living.1 -
Jenkyns doing her speech after gaining 42% in Lincs1
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Nearly all LibDem seats are blue-facing. If they end up in coalition with Labour, say sfter a close election next time, their support will tank. That's their problem - surviving electorally if in govt.A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:
A Lab LD deal would cost Farron W&L without a doubt.FrancisUrquhart said:If the Tories and Reform did a deal, could we see Labour / Lib Dems also do a deal? And we become more like Germany where in parts of the country parties don't stand against one another e.g Lib Dem have the South West to themselves.
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In the by-election polling the Lib Dem’s and Greens were expected to do better so clearly there was some tactical voting there .
Clearly a bad night for Labour but they held on in 3 mayoral contests so it could have been worse .
The Tories seriously though are in a worse state . And the real carnage doesn’t happen till later .2 -
They'll be thanking Labour for delaying so many elections.nico67 said:In the by-election polling the Lib Dem’s and Greens were expected to do better so clearly there was some tactical voting there .
Clearly a bad night for Labour but they held on in 3 mayoral contests so it could have been worse .
The Tories seriously though are in a worse state . And the real carnage doesn’t happen till later .1 -
It’s time the media stopped fawning over Farage and Tice and started asking them what their answers are - and how they would pay for them.4
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If the previous Labour MP had merely died, they would have held the seat.nico67 said:In the by-election polling the Lib Dem’s and Greens were expected to do better so clearly there was some tactical voting there .
Clearly a bad night for Labour but they held on in 3 mayoral contests so it could have been worse .
The Tories seriously though are in a worse state . And the real carnage doesn’t happen till later .1 -
Reform would have been first in Miliband's constituency.Alanbrooke said:Tory voters in Doncaster should be ashamed, they could have scared the crap out of that idiot Miliband.
With the Conservatives first in Doncaster East and Axholme.1 -
Reform!Monksfield said:It’s time the media stopped fawning over Farage and Tice and started asking them what their answers are - and how they would pay for them.
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Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
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Yes the cancelled elections were in one area where Reform would have trounced them and in the other where Lib Dem’s would have done the same .kle4 said:
They'll be thanking Labour for delaying so many elections.nico67 said:In the by-election polling the Lib Dem’s and Greens were expected to do better so clearly there was some tactical voting there .
Clearly a bad night for Labour but they held on in 3 mayoral contests so it could have been worse .
The Tories seriously though are in a worse state . And the real carnage doesn’t happen till later .0 -
There has been no austerity.Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
There have been some cuts but these have been matched by profligacy in other spending.
Certainly there has been no austerity on the oldies.
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Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.
Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.
Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.1 -
Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .Casino_Royale said:
Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
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A serendipitous juxtaposition on my Twitter.
One tweet featuring populist, ill conceived, backward-looking rubbish that would shame a 5 year old and the other..well, you know the rest.
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You can't keep a good woman down.IanB2 said:Jenkyns doing her speech after gaining 42% in Lincs
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I think the media narrative would be different. It would be Nigel you haven't managed to win many mayoral races, you lost this by-election, why are you failing to win against such an unpopular government and Tory party. Instead the headline is Reform pull off stunning by-election victory.RochdalePioneers said:Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.
Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.
Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.0 -
The North Lincolnshire vote is awful for Labour:
Con 14,003
Ref 12,993
Lab 4,825
Has Labour ever done worse in an election in greater Scunthorpe ?1 -
With a result that close, there’s a myriad of ifs that Labour would have won with.IanB2 said:
If the previous Labour MP had merely died, they would have held the seat.nico67 said:In the by-election polling the Lib Dem’s and Greens were expected to do better so clearly there was some tactical voting there .
Clearly a bad night for Labour but they held on in 3 mayoral contests so it could have been worse .
The Tories seriously though are in a worse state . And the real carnage doesn’t happen till later .1 -
As of now, Andrea Jenkyns is the most powerful Reform politician in the land.kle4 said:
Reform!Monksfield said:It’s time the media stopped fawning over Farage and Tice and started asking them what their answers are - and how they would pay for them.
It's going to be fascinating to see how she, Farage... and Lincolnshire respond to that.1 -
None, because everyone loves it across all parties and all ages - and we all saw the shitstorm that (quite rightly) qualifying the menial WFA caused.nico67 said:
Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .Casino_Royale said:
Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
You'd have to make the political and economic case consistently for years to change public opinion and prepare the ground.
Politicians seem to have lost the art of doing this.0 -
The one in power when the financial markets tells them to.nico67 said:
Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .Casino_Royale said:
Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
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They ought to be pleased to have some prominent women, nowStuartinromford said:
As of now, Andrea Jenkyns is the most powerful Reform politician in the land.kle4 said:
Reform!Monksfield said:It’s time the media stopped fawning over Farage and Tice and started asking them what their answers are - and how they would pay for them.
It's going to be fascinating to see how she, Farage... and Lincolnshire respond to that.1 -
Merge tax and NI, and the lock becomes less of an issueCasino_Royale said:
None, because everyone loves it across all parties and all ages - and we all saw the shitstorm that (quite rightly) qualifying the menial WFA caused.nico67 said:
Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .Casino_Royale said:
Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
You'd have to make the political and economic case consistently for years to change public opinion and prepare the ground.
Politicians seem to have lost the art of doing this.1 -
This very neatly summarises the malaise which is the ruins of Britain. We're still here, we're still going, but everything is tired and crumbling at best. Or broken and missing at worst.Andy_JS said:Economist article which indirectly explains why Farage & co are doing well.
"Police forces have stepped back from dealing with petty crime: shoplifting has octupled over the past decade; a well-oiled network ferries stolen phones to shopping malls in Shenzhen within a fortnight. Prosecution rates have plummeted and the prisons are full. The National Health Service (NHS) rations care, with waiting-lists running into the millions. Roads are crumbling faster than local councils can fix them.
Behind each of these woes lies a shift in the priorities of the state, which has slowly been reshaped over the past decade or two. Years of feeble economic growth and yo-yoing austerity have led to a country-size triage operation. Urgent needs are still met, but only by neglecting the day-to-day basics that keep the governed consenting. This “state of last resort” stretches from the NHS to the asylum system, but is starkest in street-level services and policing." (£)
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/05/01/britains-social-contract-is-fraying
For all that the remaining PB Tories will be on trying to defend and deflect, the buck really does stop with them. They have departed from a period of chaotic government having left the social fabric stretched and broken. Pick a service - criminal justice, education, health, transport, local councils etc etc etc - all left in ruins.
Labour have made stupid mistakes in their months in office but it is only months. They will get the blame for the mistakes not because WFA is seismic, but because it is totemic - a government who has no clue what to do about the buggered mess they inherited, left picking around the edges with yet more cuts to make things that little bit worse.
This is the rise of Reform. They may not have the answers to fix these broken communities. But unlike Labour and the Tories they at least recognise that they are broken.3 -
I thought Runcorn was close, and Lab value, so good to see that borne out. But it’s a horrendous result for them. They’ll be happier to have clung on to those few mayoralties.
I think there’s scope after tonight for Reform to grab a few more % in the polls.1 -
Current and ex-councillors invited to jump in.
How long before a RefUK councillor seeing the amount of work they have to do, decides to jump ship to spend more time with their family / mistress / Wetherspoons?0 -
lol Im watching Nigel Huddleston claiming the Conservative party has conservative principles.
He must have missed the last 10 years.0 -
Yes, we are in danger of understating the Reform result in Runcorn. Labour had a VAST majority and this is one of the safest Labour seats in the country. LostRochdalePioneers said:Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.
Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.
Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.
Every single Labour MP outside inner London (and a few big, ethnic cities) is in danger
Labour have had a year. A year to turn the economy around and - lol - “smash the gangs”. They’ve done neither. They are catastrophic. They’re not gonna suddenly change into something great
A humongous defeat beckons in 28-29
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Evidently voters not very grateful for the steelworks being saved.another_richard said:The North Lincolnshire vote is awful for Labour:
Con 14,003
Ref 12,993
Lab 4,825
Has Labour ever done worse in an election in greater Scunthorpe ?
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Because of social media. Politics (life) changed forever with the advent of social media.Casino_Royale said:
None, because everyone loves it across all parties and all ages - and we all saw the shitstorm that (quite rightly) qualifying the menial WFA caused.nico67 said:
Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .Casino_Royale said:
Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
You'd have to make the political and economic case consistently for years to change public opinion and prepare the ground.
Politicians seem to have lost the art of doing this.1 -
Andrea Jenkyns won. Cha-ching.
Wonder how long it will take Clueless to pay out. Hopefully not too long now they're part of the broader Ladbrokes group.0 -
Yes but think of all those houses theyre buildingLeon said:
Yes, we are in danger of understating the Reform result in Runcorn. Labour had a VAST majority and this is one of the safest Labour seats in the country. LostRochdalePioneers said:Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.
Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.
Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.
Every single Labour MP outside inner London (and a few big, ethnic cities) is in danger
Labour have had a year. A year to turn the economy around and - lol - “smash the gangs”. They’ve done neither. They are catastrophic. They’re not gonna suddenly change into something great
A humongous defeat beckons in 28-29
oh wait.0 -
I think perhaps there's a chance to raise pensions by X%, but then delink from the locks.nico67 said:
Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .Casino_Royale said:
Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
I'd keep inflation.
Then when people say you are cutting pensions, you can respond - we are increasing them by mire than ever ...1 -
You can do very little as a councillor if you're content to be a shit one. Its just most people when they get in feel obligated to work hard. Sometimes too much in truth, since it'll fill your hours if you let it.Battlebus said:Current and ex-councillors invited to jump in.
How long before a RefUK councillor seeing the amount of work they have to do, decides to jump ship to spend more time with their family / mistress / Wetherspoons?4 -
That’s a long time away and a lot can happen before then .Leon said:
Yes, we are in danger of understating the Reform result in Runcorn. Labour had a VAST majority and this is one of the safest Labour seats in the country. LostRochdalePioneers said:Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.
Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.
Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.
Every single Labour MP outside inner London (and a few big, ethnic cities) is in danger
Labour have had a year. A year to turn the economy around and - lol - “smash the gangs”. They’ve done neither. They are catastrophic. They’re not gonna suddenly change into something great
A humongous defeat beckons in 28-290 -
On the removal of wfa do we know how many oldies froze to death this winter ?
Weren't we promised that it would be other four thousand ?2 -
I think all the 'work' is kinda optional no? You don't *have* to do anything...Battlebus said:Current and ex-councillors invited to jump in.
How long before a RefUK councillor seeing the amount of work they have to do, decides to jump ship to spend more time with their family / mistress / Wetherspoons?1 -
I'd agree that a lot of Reform's budgeting is a bit magic money tree, but ironically a channel tow backs policy would almost certainly be cost saving. We're spending something like £3Bn a year on hotels for asylum seekers. I'd be surprised if the kit and personnel to push back 95% of boats would cost half that.Monksfield said:
To fix the problems people feel in their daily lives you need to raise money from somewhere.kle4 said:
I think multinationals will always find a way out from paying. I dont know how in every scenario but im confident their ability to do so exceeds the ability of government to close every loophole.Monksfield said:
Do you think Anazon will leave?kle4 said:
And then they all leave presumably. Tough choices only.Monksfield said:
What do you suggest? How are Reform going to fix it?Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
Deal with tax loopholes comprehensively. Make multinationals pay their way.
To have a navy and coastguard of the size we would need to plow relentlessly up and down the channel like Reform voters seem to want you need to raise money from somewhere.
Simple solutions to global problems. That’s Reform. But maybe we need to have a dose of the simplists, albeit as we see in the US I’m unsure that democracy in its current form will survive it.
That said, even cheaper would be to guarantee that we will 100% refuse asylum and return you to wherever we think you came from if you arrive by small boat from France, no matter how strong and/or bleeding heart your case.1 -
Voters don't do gratitude, never have.Theuniondivvie said:
Evidently voters not very grateful for the steelworks being saved.another_richard said:The North Lincolnshire vote is awful for Labour:
Con 14,003
Ref 12,993
Lab 4,825
Has Labour ever done worse in an election in greater Scunthorpe ?3 -
I've scan read the overnight and noted the utter mess that the media narrative - Kuennesberg especially - have made of covering this.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think the media narrative would be different. It would be Nigel you haven't managed to win many mayoral races, you lost this by-election, why are you failing to win against such an unpopular government and Tory party. Instead the headline is Reform pull off stunning by-election victory.RochdalePioneers said:Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.
Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.
Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.
Lets say the swing in R&H was 17.2% instead of 17.4%. Labour win by a handful of votes one of which was my apocryphal cock and balls neatly drawn in their candidate's box. How does Labour spin a swing so large as to utterly demolish them if repeated? R&H is soooooooo far down the list of places that the fukers should be competitive in that had it not been for a byelection you'd have to be mad to suggest it.
West of England mayoralty. Wasn't it supposed to be the Greens against Labour? Reform came second. Again, not their area at all but look at the numbers.
We will see this played out all day today once counts get going.1 -
Labour are just so…. BadAlanbrooke said:
Yes but think of all those houses theyre buildingLeon said:
Yes, we are in danger of understating the Reform result in Runcorn. Labour had a VAST majority and this is one of the safest Labour seats in the country. LostRochdalePioneers said:Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.
Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.
Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.
Every single Labour MP outside inner London (and a few big, ethnic cities) is in danger
Labour have had a year. A year to turn the economy around and - lol - “smash the gangs”. They’ve done neither. They are catastrophic. They’re not gonna suddenly change into something great
A humongous defeat beckons in 28-29
oh wait.
I expected them to annoy me. Even infuriate me. Woke, etc
But I also expected a basic level of competence which might keep them leading in the polls for a couple of years. Yet not. They are down at 21-23%
Incredible1 -
Well, the 3.5 on Lab was a good value loser.Casino_Royale said:Andrea Jenkyns won. Cha-ching.
Wonder how long it will take Clueless to pay out. Hopefully not too long now they're part of the broader Ladbrokes group.
My Green over LD at evens was a good call though. So so far slightly up.
The Tories look like toast, and I don't think getting rid of Kemi will fix it, though that is likely to be what they try.1 -
Still, the shift that Farage has put in for Clacton should be inspirational to other ‘Reformers’.rkrkrk said:
I think all the 'work' is kinda optional no? You don't *have* to do anything...Battlebus said:Current and ex-councillors invited to jump in.
How long before a RefUK councillor seeing the amount of work they have to do, decides to jump ship to spend more time with their family / mistress / Wetherspoons?1 -
I agree we can't afford it but I know too many people in poverty to describe them as being kept in clover.Casino_Royale said:
Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
Good morning, everyone. I hope those who monitored the results as they were announced had a good night.1 -
But it’s a by-election and this hasn’t been after a GE campaign where Farage and co will be under more scrutiny .RochdalePioneers said:
I've scan read the overnight and noted the utter mess that the media narrative - Kuennesberg especially - have made of covering this.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think the media narrative would be different. It would be Nigel you haven't managed to win many mayoral races, you lost this by-election, why are you failing to win against such an unpopular government and Tory party. Instead the headline is Reform pull off stunning by-election victory.RochdalePioneers said:Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.
Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.
Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.
Lets say the swing in R&H was 17.2% instead of 17.4%. Labour win by a handful of votes one of which was my apocryphal cock and balls neatly drawn in their candidate's box. How does Labour spin a swing so large as to utterly demolish them if repeated? R&H is soooooooo far down the list of places that the fukers should be competitive in that had it not been for a byelection you'd have to be mad to suggest it.
West of England mayoralty. Wasn't it supposed to be the Greens against Labour? Reform came second. Again, not their area at all but look at the numbers.
We will see this played out all day today once counts get going.
Maybe Reeves might realise that making more cuts isn’t the answer .0 -
Do you not know anyone who is poor?another_richard said:
There has been no austerity.Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
There have been some cuts but these have been matched by profligacy in other spending.
Certainly there has been no austerity on the oldies.0 -
The crossings are only really feasible on a regular basis from Dunkerque to Boulogne, so maybe a 30km stretch. The RN has ample assets to police that considering that they only have to do it when the weather is favourable and it doesn't need anything sophisticated.Monksfield said:
To fix the problems people feel in their daily lives you need to raise money from somewhere.kle4 said:
I think multinationals will always find a way out from paying. I dont know how in every scenario but im confident their ability to do so exceeds the ability of government to close every loophole.Monksfield said:
Do you think Anazon will leave?kle4 said:
And then they all leave presumably. Tough choices only.Monksfield said:
What do you suggest? How are Reform going to fix it?Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
Deal with tax loopholes comprehensively. Make multinationals pay their way.
To have a navy and coastguard of the size we would need to plow relentlessly up and down the channel like Reform voters seem to want you need to raise money from somewhere.1 -
Huge swings in by-elections are commonplace. Don’t over-interpret them. It’s been a very good night for RefUK, but many a by-election victory has evaporated at the next general.RochdalePioneers said:
I've scan read the overnight and noted the utter mess that the media narrative - Kuennesberg especially - have made of covering this.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think the media narrative would be different. It would be Nigel you haven't managed to win many mayoral races, you lost this by-election, why are you failing to win against such an unpopular government and Tory party. Instead the headline is Reform pull off stunning by-election victory.RochdalePioneers said:Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.
Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.
Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.
Lets say the swing in R&H was 17.2% instead of 17.4%. Labour win by a handful of votes one of which was my apocryphal cock and balls neatly drawn in their candidate's box. How does Labour spin a swing so large as to utterly demolish them if repeated? R&H is soooooooo far down the list of places that the fukers should be competitive in that had it not been for a byelection you'd have to be mad to suggest it.
West of England mayoralty. Wasn't it supposed to be the Greens against Labour? Reform came second. Again, not their area at all but look at the numbers.
We will see this played out all day today once counts get going.1 -
I think Labour will have to.nico67 said:
Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .Casino_Royale said:
Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
0 -
It’s all the media’s fault !!Monksfield said:It’s time the media stopped fawning over Farage and Tice and started asking them what their answers are - and how they would pay for them.
0 -
Reform should thank Labour for going round creating all these new high profile mayoral positions, for them to have a shot at. There’ll be another batch of them next year.4
-
Don't diss Wetherspoons. That's a GREAT idea. Councillors go off and do surgeries in libraries and similar sterile places. Where people turn up who have a specific issue that motivates them. Or as so often is the case - nobody turns up.Battlebus said:Current and ex-councillors invited to jump in.
How long before a RefUK councillor seeing the amount of work they have to do, decides to jump ship to spend more time with their family / mistress / Wetherspoons?
Hold a surgery in Spoons. With a pint. Let people talk. They could make a virtue of it. And despite doing very little work as you suggest get to be very visible and thus clearly working very hard.
Genius idea.5 -
NEW THREAD
0 -
A big part of the WFA problem is the cliff edge of the qualifier - is it Pension Credit? £5 over the limit must lose you hundreds of pounds.Casino_Royale said:
None, because everyone loves it across all parties and all ages - and we all saw the shitstorm that (quite rightly) qualifying the menial WFA caused.nico67 said:
Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .Casino_Royale said:
Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
You'd have to make the political and economic case consistently for years to change public opinion and prepare the ground.
Politicians seem to have lost the art of doing this.0 -
They should move it to a cumulative basis - so highest of the increase of the three measures since 2025 - it would take the sting out of it while making the change too complicated for most to get worked up aboutrkrkrk said:
I think perhaps there's a chance to raise pensions by X%, but then delink from the locks.nico67 said:
Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .Casino_Royale said:
Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
I'd keep inflation.
Then when people say you are cutting pensions, you can respond - we are increasing them by mire than ever ...0 -
Calm down, dear.Leon said:
Yes, we are in danger of understating the Reform result in Runcorn. Labour had a VAST majority and this is one of the safest Labour seats in the country. LostRochdalePioneers said:Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.
Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.
Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.
Every single Labour MP outside inner London (and a few big, ethnic cities) is in danger
Labour have had a year. A year to turn the economy around and - lol - “smash the gangs”. They’ve done neither. They are catastrophic. They’re not gonna suddenly change into something great
A humongous defeat beckons in 28-292 -
Clearly Reform will be delighted to have won the Runcorn by election but some relief in Labour they kept the margin down to only six votes.
Labour have also won most of the Mayoral elections declared so far albeit Reform have won Lincolnshire1 -
Given the overall Lincs result, how come Tories in lead here? Would have thought Scunthorpe prime Reform area.another_richard said:The North Lincolnshire vote is awful for Labour:
Con 14,003
Ref 12,993
Lab 4,825
Has Labour ever done worse in an election in greater Scunthorpe ?0 -
That depends on how you define poor.AnneJGP said:
Do you not know anyone who is poor?another_richard said:
There has been no austerity.Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
There have been some cuts but these have been matched by profligacy in other spending.
Certainly there has been no austerity on the oldies.
The people I do know either work, are oldies or are people who have retired early (sometimes on grounds of 'ill health').
Very few would seem to be financially struggling to me.
I suppose that the most likely way to know poor people is to be poor yourself.0 -
Reform backed nationalising them anyway as did even the Tories reluctantlyTheuniondivvie said:
Evidently voters not very grateful for the steelworks being saved.another_richard said:The North Lincolnshire vote is awful for Labour:
Con 14,003
Ref 12,993
Lab 4,825
Has Labour ever done worse in an election in greater Scunthorpe ?0 -
Unfortunately, that's where the big expenditure is - social welfare and healthcare in advanced age - and where the savings must be made.AnneJGP said:
I agree we can't afford it but I know too many people in poverty to describe them as being kept in clover.Casino_Royale said:
Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
There are no easy choices.1 -
Yes, there are all sorts of stupid cliff edges in this country.AnneJGP said:
A big part of the WFA problem is the cliff edge of the qualifier - is it Pension Credit? £5 over the limit must lose you hundreds of pounds.Casino_Royale said:
None, because everyone loves it across all parties and all ages - and we all saw the shitstorm that (quite rightly) qualifying the menial WFA caused.nico67 said:
Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .Casino_Royale said:
Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
You'd have to make the political and economic case consistently for years to change public opinion and prepare the ground.
Politicians seem to have lost the art of doing this.1 -
Sense being spoken by Caroline Flint on the GMB politics slot. Usual stuff. Wake up call. Ignoring people’s concerns. Telling people,what to think. Etc etc. interesting comment. Many of these are former Labour voters. Once they leave it’s not easy to get them back.
I suspect the main parties will do what they always do. Say they’re in listening mode, wring their hands, tell the voters they really care about them and just keep on down the same path.
As for local govt, unless the funding (or the obligations on councils such as ferrying kids to school in taxis) is radically reformed, it is fucked and I suspect many councillors will just want to be like mine. Getting pictures on the local groups putting in a new bench or a new planter with their budget.1 -
Not in 2024 though.bondegezou said:
Huge swings in by-elections are commonplace. Don’t over-interpret them. It’s been a very good night for RefUK, but many a by-election victory has evaporated at the next general.RochdalePioneers said:
I've scan read the overnight and noted the utter mess that the media narrative - Kuennesberg especially - have made of covering this.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think the media narrative would be different. It would be Nigel you haven't managed to win many mayoral races, you lost this by-election, why are you failing to win against such an unpopular government and Tory party. Instead the headline is Reform pull off stunning by-election victory.RochdalePioneers said:Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.
Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.
Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.
Lets say the swing in R&H was 17.2% instead of 17.4%. Labour win by a handful of votes one of which was my apocryphal cock and balls neatly drawn in their candidate's box. How does Labour spin a swing so large as to utterly demolish them if repeated? R&H is soooooooo far down the list of places that the fukers should be competitive in that had it not been for a byelection you'd have to be mad to suggest it.
West of England mayoralty. Wasn't it supposed to be the Greens against Labour? Reform came second. Again, not their area at all but look at the numbers.
We will see this played out all day today once counts get going.0 -
No NI should be ringfenced to fund the state pension, contributory unemployment benefits and some social careIanB2 said:
Merge tax and NI, and the lock becomes less of an issueCasino_Royale said:
None, because everyone loves it across all parties and all ages - and we all saw the shitstorm that (quite rightly) qualifying the menial WFA caused.nico67 said:
Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .Casino_Royale said:
Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
You'd have to make the political and economic case consistently for years to change public opinion and prepare the ground.
Politicians seem to have lost the art of doing this.0 -
Nothing is certain in politics, a year ago the Canadian Conservatives were heading for a landslide of epic proportions but the Liberals have just been narrowly re electedLeon said:
Yes, we are in danger of understating the Reform result in Runcorn. Labour had a VAST majority and this is one of the safest Labour seats in the country. LostRochdalePioneers said:Morning all! Glad I decided to go to bed - not enough council counts overnight to be worth the bother.
Of the few that we've had? Be afraid, be VERY afraid of the Reform tidal wave. Particularly entertained by the various ex Tory MPs running for council or local mayoralties to finish 3rd. Or last up in Blyth. Bless.
Had the Runcorn byelection been a Labour majority of 6 then very little would have changed. A 17% swing from Labour to Reform is a cataclysmic result for the reds, so holding the seat by 6 would have been scant solace. As it is they lost by 6 so don't even have that crumb to cling on to.
Every single Labour MP outside inner London (and a few big, ethnic cities) is in danger
Labour have had a year. A year to turn the economy around and - lol - “smash the gangs”. They’ve done neither. They are catastrophic. They’re not gonna suddenly change into something great
A humongous defeat beckons in 28-293 -
It's not just the state pension, public sector pensions need a 30-40% haircut too. In too many areas we're living well beyond our means and our welfare state is far, far beyond a safety net. Cut a million people from state employment to take us back to 2017, taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers, merge NI and income tax so that non-working income is taxed at the same rate as working income, cut to £2k the cash ISA allowance, push through a 30-40% haircut for defined benefit pensions (even for people currently receiving them), introduce much, much tougher criteria to receive disability benefits and exclude all but 5% of the most serious mental health cases by default. The rest can go back to work or live on £450 per month or whatever UC is for unemployed people. Also get rid of UC, move back to the old system if JSA and ESA, UC is an experiment that hasn't worked, it's just encouraged people to game the system worse than ever.nico67 said:
Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .Casino_Royale said:
Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
I think if Labour started that programme today by the end of the parliament we could be in a position to actually pay front line service staff more and attract better quality candidates for teachers, police, nurses etc...
What we have now is an underfunded and hugely over funded state at the same time it's literally the worst of both worlds.1 -
The party that ends the triple lock can expect to get hammered at an election . Unless you have cross party support it’s never going to happen .1
-
Financial markets don't crash over long held policies like the triple lock.another_richard said:
The one in power when the financial markets tells them to.nico67 said:
Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .Casino_Royale said:
Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
Only Labour could even consider doing it anyway given Reform and even more so the Tories have such a big percentage of their vote from pensioners0 -
Many Reform voters are lapsed Labour voters. Certainly in my area. They won’t want to vote Tory either. Their voting Reform partly as NOTA and partly for the reasons Rochdale outlined, certainly around here. They’re not all thick, stupid, gullible, racist. Many just want a better life, tidier streets, less petty crime, less potholes and some civic pride.nico67 said:The problem with a Tory Reform pact is the notion that you can just add their vote totals together .
The Tories would lose some of their voters who won’t support a pact . And there would be large tactical voting against any Tory Reform candidates .
Reform may surprise on the upside (trademark PB) or not, but in Durham labour were shit, the coalition were shit, so why not give them a go.
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You're wrong about UC - it's done a very good at removing work disincentives. The issue is that there are still too many benefits that haven't been rolled into it.MaxPB said:
It's not just the state pension, public sector pensions need a 30-40% haircut too. In too many areas we're living well beyond our means and our welfare state is far, far beyond a safety net. Cut a million people from state employment to take us back to 2017, taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers, merge NI and income tax so that non-working income is taxed at the same rate as working income, cut to £2k the cash ISA allowance, push through a 30-40% haircut for defined benefit pensions (even for people currently receiving them), introduce much, much tougher criteria to receive disability benefits and exclude all but 5% of the most serious mental health cases by default. The rest can go back to work or live on £450 per month or whatever UC is for unemployed people. Also get rid of UC, move back to the old system if JSA and ESA, UC is an experiment that hasn't worked, it's just encouraged people to game the system worse than ever.nico67 said:
Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .Casino_Royale said:
Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
I think if Labour started that programme today by the end of the parliament we could be in a position to actually pay front line service staff more and attract better quality candidates for teachers, police, nurses etc...
What we have now is an underfunded and hugely over funded state at the same time it's literally the worst of both worlds.0 -
Yet when even small cuts are made (such as WFP) look at the reaction. The voters deserting Labour and Tories want more Free Owls, not fewer. That seems especially true of Reform voters.Casino_Royale said:
Unfortunately, that's where the big expenditure is - social welfare and healthcare in advanced age - and where the savings must be made.AnneJGP said:
I agree we can't afford it but I know too many people in poverty to describe them as being kept in clover.Casino_Royale said:
Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.Andy_JS said:
How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?Monksfield said:I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
There are no easy choices.
It's not easy to find places to cut, nor to raise tax.
This show the money is spent.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_spending_in_the_United_Kingdom#:~:text=Pie chart of UK government,which totals £124 billion.
Most striking to me is the £116 billion on debt interest, up from £43 billion in 18-19, so close to half of the spending on health, and nearly twice what we spend on defence. Continuing a massive budget deficit just makes that worse.
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I think the Tories will live to fight another day. Their vote has been savaged by RefUK, but they are still in the fight. The interesting thing is that the votes are splitting evenly, so Labour and the Lib Dems will scrape through in some places because the Tories and RefUk will cancel each other out.Foxy said:
Well, the 3.5 on Lab was a good value loser.Casino_Royale said:Andrea Jenkyns won. Cha-ching.
Wonder how long it will take Clueless to pay out. Hopefully not too long now they're part of the broader Ladbrokes group.
My Green over LD at evens was a good call though. So so far slightly up.
The Tories look like toast, and I don't think getting rid of Kemi will fix it, though that is likely to be what they try.
In a 4/5 party system, the split for Farage is actually quite low. I don't think RefUK can claim a landslide- I think the Tories may still hold most seats at the end of the day.1
