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Political betting is being blamed for the Tories losing control of every council tonight

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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,801

    Turns on TV.

    Finds Laura K has been selected by the geniuses at the bbc to front the whole election night.

    Listens to three minutes of dumbed down platitudinal nonsense about how not all places have elections.

    Goes back to the Internet...

    Am I alone?

    This is a LOCAL election for LOCAL people! There's nothing for YOU here!
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,691
    As I kept refreshing various pages rather than go to bed. I can't help noticing that Reform seem to have picked, what I can only refer to as "David Icke Turquoise" as their colour.
  • vikvik Posts: 299
    TimS said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    vik said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    Regarding shoplifting:

    Can we have a system a bit like speeding tickets where it is a civil offence with increasing fines without the need for being proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt and clogging up the courts?

    CCTV catches you stealing? Fine 50x value of items, or £1,000, whichever is highest. Maybe subject to a maximum. If you appeal it's done on balance of probabilities.

    Repeat offenders see higher fines and eventually a criminal case. But we need speedy justice for low level crime to deter this sort of shit.

    Stick them in the clink for 20+ years, deport the foreigners and have done with them. A few exemplary sentences ought to be enough. Do it for a few months and then any outbreak of thieving do it again, after a few rounds the problem will resolve itself. Make a big song and dance over the extra long sentencing and deportations, have the PM tell the nation that we won't stand for it and actually mean it. Fuck the do gooders and human rights brigade if they pipe up.
    Long sentences haven't proven much of a deterrent in the US.

    I think what works is increasing the rate of conviction, and reducing the time from offence to conviction. The response to the riots should be a guide here. You could have specialist courts set up to prosecute these cases quickly. Speed up the whole process. Once people get the message that there will be consequences pretty soon, the consequences themselves don't necessarily have to be as severe as a couple of decades in the clink.
    Absolutely. Policing: knowing you’ll get caught. If there’s a low risk of getting caught then the sentence is irrelevant. Just catch the fuckers.
    But when they get caught they actually need to be punished with a jail sentence. The problem is that when these people get caught they get let off and are out stealing the very same afternoon they get arrested. Instant deportation for foreigners caught stealing (or of any crime really) with no right of appeal and exemplary sentences for citizens. Do it for a few months and substantially raise the risk in people's risk/reward calculation. If you have a 100% chance of being let off after being caught then what's the incentive to stop? If you have a 100% chance of getting a 10 year sentence or deportation after being caught people will think twice. The key is to catch them, as you rightly say, but to also action sentencing and deportations rapidly. As in within a few days for deportation and within a weeks for sentencing.

    As soon as word gets out vast majority of it will stop and then you're left with drug addicts and kleptomaniacs. The issue is that ordinary people and gangs see literally no downside risk to stealing at the moment.
    There’s quite a wide gulf between “100% chance of being let off” and “prison sentence”. Prison is a perp finishing school.

    One of the Singapore policies that steers this side of the totalitarian line is punitive, confiscatory fines. Those plus community service plus parental financial liability if the miscreant is under 18 are surely all better options that stuffing the prisons even fuller when prison populations in equivalent European countries with lower crime rates and way lower reoffending rates are so much lower.
    Shoplifting can be easily stopped if shops just hired more security to watch people.

    Only a mentally ill person would shoplift something if there's a burly security guard standing there watching you do it.

    And yes, that would result in prices going up, but it would also result in more direct job creation.
    Some do it right in front of the staff and security, particularly the kids.
    Perhaps we'll just have to go back to Open All Hours style shopping, where everything is behind the counter.
    It will just work like pay-at-the-pump. You'll have to touch your card on entry to the shop (with your balaclava pulled down and possible facial recognition to the bank), £200 hold, chuck your goods into your bag, barcodes will scan automatically as you leave, reimburse your account.

    As labour gets relatively more expensive I expect this to happen remarkably quickly.
    Some shops like Costco have membership. That might be a way forward.
    Yes, exactly. There are lots of common-sense solutions that don't involve draconian punishments.

    And I don't know if it's the same in the UK Costcos, but in Australia, they also do a quick check of everyone's bags and trolley when you exit. It's only a quick, cursory check, but it's meant to be a reminder to people that your bags will be checked & you shouldn't steal.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,671
    Fair play to the local bbc radio lass from Doncaster - very good summary of her patch without the vacuous nonsense. Spoke so quickly that Laura K could not interrupt with some utter bollocks.

    Promote.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721

    Fair play to the local bbc radio lass from Doncaster - very good summary of her patch without the vacuous nonsense. Spoke so quickly that Laura K could not interrupt with some utter bollocks.

    Promote.

    I assume the top bods on national tv have no time to do actual journalistic work, their job is to give the most basic newsreader summaries of any situation relevant to their brief.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,801

    Please make it stop.

    So missing Vincent Hanna.

    "A rotten candidate for a rotten borough!" :lol:
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,073
    edited May 1
    What’s interesting looking at the Laura K coverage so far this evening is that she’s not, contrary to what lots of lefties claimed in recent years, biased towards the right wing. No evidence of that. The evidence is she’s biased towards a specific party, the Conservatives.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,543
    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Mark Hall (Harlow) council election result:

    REF: 31.9% (+23.5)
    CON: 26.8% (+2.5)
    LAB: 22.7% (-24.9)
    GRN: 14.1% (+0.7)
    LDEM: 3.5% (-2.7)
    UKIP: 0.9% (+0.9)

    Reform GAIN from Labour"

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918075311175950695
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,801
    Andy_JS said:

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Mark Hall (Harlow) council election result:

    REF: 31.9% (+23.5)
    CON: 26.8% (+2.5)
    LAB: 22.7% (-24.9)
    GRN: 14.1% (+0.7)
    LDEM: 3.5% (-2.7)
    UKIP: 0.9% (+0.9)

    Reform GAIN from Labour"

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918075311175950695

    And so it begins... :lol:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,671
    kle4 said:

    Fair play to the local bbc radio lass from Doncaster - very good summary of her patch without the vacuous nonsense. Spoke so quickly that Laura K could not interrupt with some utter bollocks.

    Promote.

    I assume the top bods on national tv have no time to do actual journalistic work, their job is to give the most basic newsreader summaries of any situation relevant to their brief.
    Increasingly they sound like they are reading from Google's AI summary.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,801
    Judging from that Harlow swing, looks to me like it's direct LAB > REF switchers, no?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,073
    Can confirm

    As a chap of a certain age I won't be staying up for the election, I'll just check the results at 1 and 4 when I get up to pee.

    https://bsky.app/profile/generalboles.bsky.social/post/3lo5clmk2zs2m

    Well, except I’m on a redeye so will log in when we land.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 860
    Anyone else not bothering to stay up cause they don't care very much, all in all?

    I voted and I do have a Runcorn bet which I've already mentally written off (Labour at 2.5....) but just don't give a stuff.
  • KnightOutKnightOut Posts: 153
    Someone should tell Bridget Phillipson she looks like a giant glans.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,244

    Anyone else not bothering to stay up cause they don't care very much, all in all?

    I voted and I do have a Runcorn bet which I've already mentally written off (Labour at 2.5....) but just don't give a stuff.

    Apart from a few local by elections all local election counts are tomorrow anyway and Runcorn won't declare until halfway through the night
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,677

    Eabhal said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Turns on TV.

    Finds Laura K has been selected by the geniuses at the bbc to front the whole election night.

    Listens to three minutes of dumbed down platitudinal nonsense about how not all places have elections.

    Goes back to the Internet...

    Am I alone?

    Getting the value out of that ChatGPT subscription though :



    "Certainly! I can write some boiler-plate text about an election!..."
    We need more abrasive journalism in this country. "You'd have to be seriously odd to stay up for this one". "This has almost no effect on anything", "It's impossible to come to any sensible political analysis from this disparate set of results".
    Go TO BED NOW. None of this matters.

    I would, but the mothing is outrageously good tonight...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,244
    edited May 1
    Andy_JS said:

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Mark Hall (Harlow) council election result:

    REF: 31.9% (+23.5)
    CON: 26.8% (+2.5)
    LAB: 22.7% (-24.9)
    GRN: 14.1% (+0.7)
    LDEM: 3.5% (-2.7)
    UKIP: 0.9% (+0.9)

    Reform GAIN from Labour"

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918075311175950695

    Was helping there this evening, not too bad a result for the Tories all things considered with a small rise in voteshare but a dreadful result for Labour and clearly a great result for Reform with a clear Labour to Reform swing to give Reform the seat
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,669
    edited May 1
    ohnotnow said:

    As I kept refreshing various pages rather than go to bed. I can't help noticing that Reform seem to have picked, what I can only refer to as "David Icke Turquoise" as their colour.

    More evidence that the lizard people are really in charge.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,317
    This is going to be a dreadful election for Labour and the Tories isn't it? And Reform's first real mark on local councils.

    I wonder if there will end up many Reform Vs Lib Dem first and second places? My instinct is that they largely inhabit mutually exclusive areas, but there must be a middle ground somewhere and they end up #1 and #2...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,073

    Andy_JS said:

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Mark Hall (Harlow) council election result:

    REF: 31.9% (+23.5)
    CON: 26.8% (+2.5)
    LAB: 22.7% (-24.9)
    GRN: 14.1% (+0.7)
    LDEM: 3.5% (-2.7)
    UKIP: 0.9% (+0.9)

    Reform GAIN from Labour"

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918075311175950695

    And so it begins... :lol:
    Really big dilemma for Tories I think. They risk being eclipsed, as has happened to centre-right parties worldwide.

    Do they pivot to the right and attempt to steal Reform’s clothes, but without a Boris to pull it off? Or do they aim for the rich voter / NIMBY tax cut vote, gain back some suburban and Lib Dem ground but give up on the red wall?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,952
    Andy_JS said:

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Mark Hall (Harlow) council election result:

    REF: 31.9% (+23.5)
    CON: 26.8% (+2.5)
    LAB: 22.7% (-24.9)
    GRN: 14.1% (+0.7)
    LDEM: 3.5% (-2.7)
    UKIP: 0.9% (+0.9)

    Reform GAIN from Labour"

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918075311175950695

    The Tory vote holding up regardless could be significant. That's the worst case scenario for Labour.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,543
    KnightOut said:

    Someone should tell Bridget Phillipson she looks like a giant glans.

    Are you allowed to say that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,244
    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Mark Hall (Harlow) council election result:

    REF: 31.9% (+23.5)
    CON: 26.8% (+2.5)
    LAB: 22.7% (-24.9)
    GRN: 14.1% (+0.7)
    LDEM: 3.5% (-2.7)
    UKIP: 0.9% (+0.9)

    Reform GAIN from Labour"

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918075311175950695

    And so it begins... :lol:
    Really big dilemma for Tories I think. They risk being eclipsed, as has happened to centre-right parties worldwide.

    Do they pivot to the right and attempt to steal Reform’s clothes, but without a Boris to pull it off? Or do they aim for the rich voter / NIMBY tax cut vote, gain back some suburban and Lib Dem ground but give up on the red wall?
    For now the latter
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,543
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    I'm surprised how low the LD score is.

    Either way it looks like one of the more interesting contests.
    LDs preferring to support the Greens in this area.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,671
    Andy_JS said:

    KnightOut said:

    Someone should tell Bridget Phillipson she looks like a giant glans.

    Are you allowed to say that.
    Someone should tell her to slow down her speech.

  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 587
    Leon said:

    I think, as @rcs1000 professionally suggests; that this so-called “gascake” is just a form of Californian weed, albeit it arrives in the uk as a light brown powder, akin to calfskin smack

    If you smoke it by the twilit river at Richmond upon Thames along with an old friend and two bottles of excellent Spanish rose and a slow release Tramadol 100mg and a dose of jet lag from Bishkek Kyrgyzstan then you feel quite exceptionally happy. Also irritated. Yet happy

    🤷🏼‍♂️

    You are not supposed to use tramodol as a recreational drug, it is a prescription medicine.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,784
    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    Regarding shoplifting:

    Can we have a system a bit like speeding tickets where it is a civil offence with increasing fines without the need for being proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt and clogging up the courts?

    CCTV catches you stealing? Fine 50x value of items, or £1,000, whichever is highest. Maybe subject to a maximum. If you appeal it's done on balance of probabilities.

    Repeat offenders see higher fines and eventually a criminal case. But we need speedy justice for low level crime to deter this sort of shit.

    Stick them in the clink for 20+ years, deport the foreigners and have done with them. A few exemplary sentences ought to be enough. Do it for a few months and then any outbreak of thieving do it again, after a few rounds the problem will resolve itself. Make a big song and dance over the extra long sentencing and deportations, have the PM tell the nation that we won't stand for it and actually mean it. Fuck the do gooders and human rights brigade if they pipe up.
    Long sentences haven't proven much of a deterrent in the US.

    I think what works is increasing the rate of conviction, and reducing the time from offence to conviction. The response to the riots should be a guide here. You could have specialist courts set up to prosecute these cases quickly. Speed up the whole process. Once people get the message that there will be consequences pretty soon, the consequences themselves don't necessarily have to be as severe as a couple of decades in the clink.
    Absolutely. Policing: knowing you’ll get caught. If there’s a low risk of getting caught then the sentence is irrelevant. Just catch the fuckers.
    But when they get caught they actually need to be punished with a jail sentence. The problem is that when these people get caught they get let off and are out stealing the very same afternoon they get arrested. Instant deportation for foreigners caught stealing (or of any crime really) with no right of appeal and exemplary sentences for citizens. Do it for a few months and substantially raise the risk in people's risk/reward calculation. If you have a 100% chance of being let off after being caught then what's the incentive to stop? If you have a 100% chance of getting a 10 year sentence or deportation after being caught people will think twice. The key is to catch them, as you rightly say, but to also action sentencing and deportations rapidly. As in within a few days for deportation and within a weeks for sentencing.

    As soon as word gets out vast majority of it will stop and then you're left with drug addicts and kleptomaniacs. The issue is that ordinary people and gangs see literally no downside risk to stealing at the moment.
    There’s quite a wide gulf between “100% chance of being let off” and “prison sentence”. Prison is a perp finishing school.

    One of the Singapore policies that steers this side of the totalitarian line is punitive, confiscatory fines. Those plus community service plus parental financial liability if the miscreant is under 18 are surely all better options that stuffing the prisons even fuller when prison populations in equivalent European countries with lower crime rates and way lower reoffending rates are so much lower.
    We have a much more broken society than much of Europe. Our values system is broken and the social contract is breaking in real time. The easy thing we can do is suspend article 8 rights for foreign criminals and use instant deportation and lifetime no right of return using biometrics to block them from ever re-entering. The more difficult thing we need to do is bring the many, many millions of people who see petty and minor crimes and not really crime back into the real world. Fines they won't ever pay won't do it. Crime needs to have real risk attached to it again and there's a disconnect between what a law abiding society expects of each other and what we actually have today.

    I'm serious when I say we should instantly deport any foreigners caught in any kind of crime, even "minor" stuff like fare evasion. We gain nothing from their presence in the country and we're becoming a joke.
    Though on shoplifting we seem to be in line with the rest of Europe. On violent crime we are worse than most, except France. Yet on incarceration rates we are way ahead. And the vast majority of criminals are proudly home grown.


    (If you'll excuse memes on PB.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,244
    Ratters said:

    This is going to be a dreadful election for Labour and the Tories isn't it? And Reform's first real mark on local councils.

    I wonder if there will end up many Reform Vs Lib Dem first and second places? My instinct is that they largely inhabit mutually exclusive areas, but there must be a middle ground somewhere and they end up #1 and #2...

    There wasn't a single constituency at the last general election the LDs and Reform took the top 2 places I can think of, the former do best in strong Remain upper middle class southern seats and the latter do best in strong Leave, white working class Northern and Midlands seats
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,073
    Ratters said:

    This is going to be a dreadful election for Labour and the Tories isn't it? And Reform's first real mark on local councils.

    I wonder if there will end up many Reform Vs Lib Dem first and second places? My instinct is that they largely inhabit mutually exclusive areas, but there must be a middle ground somewhere and they end up #1 and #2...

    The entirety of metropolitan France is effectively Reform vs Lib Dem (well not strictly the entirety, but a lot of it) so it’s quite possible. So is Poland, so is Italy, and so of course is Canada.

    The Lib Dems have an opportunity to represent the Macronist globalist liberal centre. I can feel the retching from parts of this site already. What used to be known as the Blairites and Cameroons, but ideally without the authoritarian instinct of both of those. To do so they must shed the beard and sandal image.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,224

    Andy_JS said:

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Mark Hall (Harlow) council election result:

    REF: 31.9% (+23.5)
    CON: 26.8% (+2.5)
    LAB: 22.7% (-24.9)
    GRN: 14.1% (+0.7)
    LDEM: 3.5% (-2.7)
    UKIP: 0.9% (+0.9)

    Reform GAIN from Labour"

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918075311175950695

    The Tory vote holding up regardless could be significant. That's the worst case scenario for Labour.
    I expect the Tories are going to get hammered in areas where the Lib Dem’s are the challengers.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,073

    Andy_JS said:

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Mark Hall (Harlow) council election result:

    REF: 31.9% (+23.5)
    CON: 26.8% (+2.5)
    LAB: 22.7% (-24.9)
    GRN: 14.1% (+0.7)
    LDEM: 3.5% (-2.7)
    UKIP: 0.9% (+0.9)

    Reform GAIN from Labour"

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918075311175950695

    The Tory vote holding up regardless could be significant. That's the worst case scenario for Labour.
    It’s not at all. The worst case is that the Tory vote collapses and Reform becomes the de facto opposition.
  • pinball13pinball13 Posts: 88
    Labour out to 5.7 for Runcorn on Betfair. Is there some news?
  • vikvik Posts: 299
    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Mark Hall (Harlow) council election result:

    REF: 31.9% (+23.5)
    CON: 26.8% (+2.5)
    LAB: 22.7% (-24.9)
    GRN: 14.1% (+0.7)
    LDEM: 3.5% (-2.7)
    UKIP: 0.9% (+0.9)

    Reform GAIN from Labour"

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918075311175950695

    And so it begins... :lol:
    Really big dilemma for Tories I think. They risk being eclipsed, as has happened to centre-right parties worldwide.

    Do they pivot to the right and attempt to steal Reform’s clothes, but without a Boris to pull it off? Or do they aim for the rich voter / NIMBY tax cut vote, gain back some suburban and Lib Dem ground but give up on the red wall?
    If the Tories had been sensible, they would have supported the Alternative Vote, and they wouldn't be caught in this dilemma.

    Preferential voting in Australia was introduced precisely because the right-wing vote was getting split between the National Party and the Liberal Party, and conservatives didn't want Labor to "sneak" into power because of this split.

    The Tories should have been far-sighted enough to realise that UKIP wasn't going to just disappear, and a potential split in their vote was on the horizon.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,543
    pinball13 said:

    Labour out to 5.7 for Runcorn on Betfair. Is there some news?

    Just the good results for Reform in places like Harlow and Hartlepool.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,073
    carnforth said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    Regarding shoplifting:

    Can we have a system a bit like speeding tickets where it is a civil offence with increasing fines without the need for being proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt and clogging up the courts?

    CCTV catches you stealing? Fine 50x value of items, or £1,000, whichever is highest. Maybe subject to a maximum. If you appeal it's done on balance of probabilities.

    Repeat offenders see higher fines and eventually a criminal case. But we need speedy justice for low level crime to deter this sort of shit.

    Stick them in the clink for 20+ years, deport the foreigners and have done with them. A few exemplary sentences ought to be enough. Do it for a few months and then any outbreak of thieving do it again, after a few rounds the problem will resolve itself. Make a big song and dance over the extra long sentencing and deportations, have the PM tell the nation that we won't stand for it and actually mean it. Fuck the do gooders and human rights brigade if they pipe up.
    Long sentences haven't proven much of a deterrent in the US.

    I think what works is increasing the rate of conviction, and reducing the time from offence to conviction. The response to the riots should be a guide here. You could have specialist courts set up to prosecute these cases quickly. Speed up the whole process. Once people get the message that there will be consequences pretty soon, the consequences themselves don't necessarily have to be as severe as a couple of decades in the clink.
    Absolutely. Policing: knowing you’ll get caught. If there’s a low risk of getting caught then the sentence is irrelevant. Just catch the fuckers.
    But when they get caught they actually need to be punished with a jail sentence. The problem is that when these people get caught they get let off and are out stealing the very same afternoon they get arrested. Instant deportation for foreigners caught stealing (or of any crime really) with no right of appeal and exemplary sentences for citizens. Do it for a few months and substantially raise the risk in people's risk/reward calculation. If you have a 100% chance of being let off after being caught then what's the incentive to stop? If you have a 100% chance of getting a 10 year sentence or deportation after being caught people will think twice. The key is to catch them, as you rightly say, but to also action sentencing and deportations rapidly. As in within a few days for deportation and within a weeks for sentencing.

    As soon as word gets out vast majority of it will stop and then you're left with drug addicts and kleptomaniacs. The issue is that ordinary people and gangs see literally no downside risk to stealing at the moment.
    There’s quite a wide gulf between “100% chance of being let off” and “prison sentence”. Prison is a perp finishing school.

    One of the Singapore policies that steers this side of the totalitarian line is punitive, confiscatory fines. Those plus community service plus parental financial liability if the miscreant is under 18 are surely all better options that stuffing the prisons even fuller when prison populations in equivalent European countries with lower crime rates and way lower reoffending rates are so much lower.
    We have a much more broken society than much of Europe. Our values system is broken and the social contract is breaking in real time. The easy thing we can do is suspend article 8 rights for foreign criminals and use instant deportation and lifetime no right of return using biometrics to block them from ever re-entering. The more difficult thing we need to do is bring the many, many millions of people who see petty and minor crimes and not really crime back into the real world. Fines they won't ever pay won't do it. Crime needs to have real risk attached to it again and there's a disconnect between what a law abiding society expects of each other and what we actually have today.

    I'm serious when I say we should instantly deport any foreigners caught in any kind of crime, even "minor" stuff like fare evasion. We gain nothing from their presence in the country and we're becoming a joke.
    Though on shoplifting we seem to be in line with the rest of Europe. On violent crime we are worse than most, except France. Yet on incarceration rates we are way ahead. And the vast majority of criminals are proudly home grown.


    (If you'll excuse memes on PB.)
    Yes, per capita.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,669
    pinball13 said:

    Labour out to 5.7 for Runcorn on Betfair. Is there some news?

    I hope no insiders having been betting....
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 278
    Thetford West (Norfolk) council election result: REF: 47.9% (+47.9) LAB: 33.6% (-23.3) CON: 12.5% (-21.5) LDEM: 6.0% (+1.2) Reform GAIN from Labour.

    Something big is happening.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,543
    "@BritainElects

    Throston (Hartlepool) council election result:

    REF: 58.3% (+47.4)
    LAB: 31.8% (-18.4)
    CON: 9.9% (+9.9)

    Reform GAIN from Labour.

    No Ind (-38.9) as prev."

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918069477121393108
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,330
    Britain Elects@BritainElects
    Thetford West (Norfolk) council election result:

    REF: 47.9% (+47.9)
    LAB: 33.6% (-23.3)
    CON: 12.5% (-21.5)
    LDEM: 6.0% (+1.2)

    Reform GAIN from Labour.
    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918079135433232476
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,315
    pinball13 said:

    Labour out to 5.7 for Runcorn on Betfair. Is there some news?

    News from the count OR reaction to Ref picking up seats in the local by-elections. Another gain from Lab in Thetford
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 860
    pinball13 said:

    Labour out to 5.7 for Runcorn on Betfair. Is there some news?

    Often yes but this is not the time to be making political bets with insider knowledge with the current bizarre tyrannical position of the gambling commission. At least if you have any sense.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,671
    "We've only been in for nine months" says Lab minister, repeatedly, as the waters surround her head.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,669
    edited May 1
    Looks like those triggered by Nige will be advised to not turn on their tellies over the bank holiday weekend as his smug face will be all over them complete with pint and fag.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,244
    TimS said:

    Ratters said:

    This is going to be a dreadful election for Labour and the Tories isn't it? And Reform's first real mark on local councils.

    I wonder if there will end up many Reform Vs Lib Dem first and second places? My instinct is that they largely inhabit mutually exclusive areas, but there must be a middle ground somewhere and they end up #1 and #2...

    The entirety of metropolitan France is effectively Reform vs Lib Dem (well not strictly the entirety, but a lot of it) so it’s quite possible. So is Poland, so is Italy, and so of course is Canada.

    The Lib Dems have an opportunity to represent the Macronist globalist liberal centre. I can feel the retching from parts of this site already. What used to be known as the Blairites and Cameroons, but ideally without the authoritarian instinct of both of those. To do so they must shed the beard and sandal image.
    That is because Macron's party is now the main non populist right party in France, albeit in the last French legislative election Melenchon's left of centre block came first, Macron's centrist block (who ended up governing with the centre right LRs) second and Le Pen's block third.

    Poland is centre right v nationalist right, the Democratic Party in Italy are more centre left than the LDs as the main opponents to Meloni's block (though there are some smaller parties like Renzi's closer to the LDs ideologically). Canada is basically a merged Conservative and Reform party v a LD party now, their Labour party, the NDP near wiped out on Monday
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,669
    edited May 1

    "We've only been in for nine months" says Lab minister, repeatedly, as the waters surround her head.

    And we have already had 67 relaunches and now threatening to drone people for littering.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,315
    1st result from Northumberland. Ref gain Croft ward in Blyth
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,528
    KnightOut said:

    Someone should tell Bridget Phillipson she looks like a giant glans.

    school dinners
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,543
    "Northumberland: Croft

    Mark Peart (Ref) 652
    Kath Nisbet (Lab) 343
    Michael Green (Con) 106

    Reform gain from Labour"

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,952
    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Mark Hall (Harlow) council election result:

    REF: 31.9% (+23.5)
    CON: 26.8% (+2.5)
    LAB: 22.7% (-24.9)
    GRN: 14.1% (+0.7)
    LDEM: 3.5% (-2.7)
    UKIP: 0.9% (+0.9)

    Reform GAIN from Labour"

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918075311175950695

    The Tory vote holding up regardless could be significant. That's the worst case scenario for Labour.
    It’s not at all. The worst case is that the Tory vote collapses and Reform becomes the de facto opposition.
    This flies in the face of your previous post. The worst case scenario for Labour is a repolarisation of politics along two-party lines where they are relegated to third place. If the real divide is Reform vs a Cameroon party, Labour will really struggle without their traditional core vote.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,610
    pinball13 said:

    Labour out to 5.7 for Runcorn on Betfair. Is there some news?

    Four Reform gains in succession from Labour, show how the wind is blowing,
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,330
    Britain Elects@BritainElects
    Croft (Northumberland) council election result:

    REF: 59.2%
    LAB: 31.2%
    CON: 9.6%

    Reform GAIN from Labour.
    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918079670576205952
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,244
    Oxted South (Tandridge) council election result:

    RES: 69.4% (+18.9)
    CON: 16.9% (-17.2)
    LAB: 8.5% (-3.2)
    LDEM: 5.2% (+1.5)

    Residents' Association HOLD.
    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918076710181896449
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,952

    Looks like those triggered by Nige will be advised to not turn on their tellies over the bank holiday weekend as his smug face will be all over them complete with pint and fag.

    This site should reprise the Smiling Gordon meme for Farage.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,671
    Lab drifting out on bF for Helmsy
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,543
    "ROCHDALE, Balderstone and Kirkholt

    RUK 766 Lab 624 Workers 398 C 212 Ind 180 LD 109 Grn 65

    RUK gain from Lab"

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,244

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Mark Hall (Harlow) council election result:

    REF: 31.9% (+23.5)
    CON: 26.8% (+2.5)
    LAB: 22.7% (-24.9)
    GRN: 14.1% (+0.7)
    LDEM: 3.5% (-2.7)
    UKIP: 0.9% (+0.9)

    Reform GAIN from Labour"

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918075311175950695

    The Tory vote holding up regardless could be significant. That's the worst case scenario for Labour.
    It’s not at all. The worst case is that the Tory vote collapses and Reform becomes the de facto opposition.
    This flies in the face of your previous post. The worst case scenario for Labour is a repolarisation of politics along two-party lines where they are relegated to third place. If the real divide is Reform vs a Cameroon party, Labour will really struggle without their traditional core vote.
    Labour's core vote is now the public sector, ethnic minorities and students not the white working class
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,330
    Britain Elects@BritainElects
    Balderstone and Kirkholt (Rochdale) council election result:

    REF: 32.5% (+32.5)
    LAB: 26.5% (-33.4)
    WPGB: 16.9% (+16.9)
    CON: 9.0% (-19.9)
    IND: 7.6% (+7.6)
    LDEM: 4.6% (+4.6)

    Reform GAIN from Labour.
    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918081686794813792
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,224

    Lab drifting out on bF for Helmsy

    Apparently Reform are leading in postal votes .
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,073
    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    Ratters said:

    This is going to be a dreadful election for Labour and the Tories isn't it? And Reform's first real mark on local councils.

    I wonder if there will end up many Reform Vs Lib Dem first and second places? My instinct is that they largely inhabit mutually exclusive areas, but there must be a middle ground somewhere and they end up #1 and #2...

    The entirety of metropolitan France is effectively Reform vs Lib Dem (well not strictly the entirety, but a lot of it) so it’s quite possible. So is Poland, so is Italy, and so of course is Canada.

    The Lib Dems have an opportunity to represent the Macronist globalist liberal centre. I can feel the retching from parts of this site already. What used to be known as the Blairites and Cameroons, but ideally without the authoritarian instinct of both of those. To do so they must shed the beard and sandal image.
    That is because Macron's party is now the main non populist right party in France, albeit in the last French legislative election Melenchon's left of centre block came first, Macron's centrist block (who ended up governing with the centre right LRs) second and Le Pen's block third.

    Poland is centre right v nationalist right, the Democratic Party in Italy are more centre left than the LDs as the main opponents to Meloni's block (though there are some smaller parties like Renzi's closer to the LDs ideologically). Canada is basically a merged Conservative and Reform party v a LD party now, their Labour party, the NDP near wiped out on Monday
    This reinforces where I think things are going:

    - A centre-right/left party representing multilateralism, liberalism, free trade, capitalism, some degree of social reform but anti-revolution and virulently anti-Putin
    - A populist, nationalist right wing party with a strong anti-immigration and anti-woke platform, with a mildly pro-Russian foreign policy
    - A radical left party with elements of anti-Semitism, pacifism and eco-zealotry
    - localist, regionalist and separatist identity parties

    The challenge for the Lib Dems and Labour is which occupies the space of the first category. The challenge for the Tories is do they try to occupy the first, or the second.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,073
    edited May 1

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Mark Hall (Harlow) council election result:

    REF: 31.9% (+23.5)
    CON: 26.8% (+2.5)
    LAB: 22.7% (-24.9)
    GRN: 14.1% (+0.7)
    LDEM: 3.5% (-2.7)
    UKIP: 0.9% (+0.9)

    Reform GAIN from Labour"

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918075311175950695

    The Tory vote holding up regardless could be significant. That's the worst case scenario for Labour.
    It’s not at all. The worst case is that the Tory vote collapses and Reform becomes the de facto opposition.
    This flies in the face of your previous post. The worst case scenario for Labour is a repolarisation of politics along two-party lines where they are relegated to third place. If the real divide is Reform vs a Cameroon party, Labour will really struggle without their traditional core vote.
    A split right will suit them for now though. And the Tories under Kemi are far, far from a Cameroon party.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,348
    Those Labour->REF swings are huge.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,543
    "@BritainElects
    Thetford Priory (Breckland) council election result:

    REF: 45.3% (+45.3)
    LAB: 29.5% (-36.8)
    CON: 16.8% (+16.8)
    GRN: 4.6% (+4.6)
    LDEM: 3.8% (+3.8)

    Reform GAIN from Labour.

    https://newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2025/05/live-results-2025-english-local-elections"

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918081318723739790
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 967
    Blyth voting against net zero....
    The port has been used as a marshalling
    yard for offshore wind projects and there's potential for other green jobs based off the Norwegian interconnector.
    Clearly they don't want an economic revival.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,952
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Mark Hall (Harlow) council election result:

    REF: 31.9% (+23.5)
    CON: 26.8% (+2.5)
    LAB: 22.7% (-24.9)
    GRN: 14.1% (+0.7)
    LDEM: 3.5% (-2.7)
    UKIP: 0.9% (+0.9)

    Reform GAIN from Labour"

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918075311175950695

    The Tory vote holding up regardless could be significant. That's the worst case scenario for Labour.
    It’s not at all. The worst case is that the Tory vote collapses and Reform becomes the de facto opposition.
    This flies in the face of your previous post. The worst case scenario for Labour is a repolarisation of politics along two-party lines where they are relegated to third place. If the real divide is Reform vs a Cameroon party, Labour will really struggle without their traditional core vote.
    A split right will suit them for now though.
    Right/left labels are unhelpful. Labour are a populist party who are coming up against a fresher populist party and finding that the old lines don't work any more.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,077
    fitalass said:

    Britain Elects@BritainElects
    Balderstone and Kirkholt (Rochdale) council election result:

    REF: 32.5% (+32.5)
    LAB: 26.5% (-33.4)
    WPGB: 16.9% (+16.9)
    CON: 9.0% (-19.9)
    IND: 7.6% (+7.6)
    LDEM: 4.6% (+4.6)

    Reform GAIN from Labour.
    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918081686794813792

    Looking at these results I wonder if conservatives are tactically voting for Reform to keep Labour out

    Maybe.@HYUFD will have a view and if so Labour could have real problems in Helsby
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 278
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,543
    The most spectacular result for RefUK would be to win the West of England mayoralty instead of the Greens. Can't see it happening myself.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,669
    edited May 1

    Those Labour->REF swings are huge.

    Seems like the electorate are doing a Mike Amesbury....just not a punch on the nose...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,360

    Those Labour->REF swings are huge.

    IT'S HAPPENING!


  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,952

    Those Labour->REF swings are huge.

    If Starmer were a Tory PM we'd be on postbag watch and thinking his days in Number 10 were numbered.
  • KnightOutKnightOut Posts: 153
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    Ratters said:

    This is going to be a dreadful election for Labour and the Tories isn't it? And Reform's first real mark on local councils.

    I wonder if there will end up many Reform Vs Lib Dem first and second places? My instinct is that they largely inhabit mutually exclusive areas, but there must be a middle ground somewhere and they end up #1 and #2...

    The entirety of metropolitan France is effectively Reform vs Lib Dem (well not strictly the entirety, but a lot of it) so it’s quite possible. So is Poland, so is Italy, and so of course is Canada.

    The Lib Dems have an opportunity to represent the Macronist globalist liberal centre. I can feel the retching from parts of this site already. What used to be known as the Blairites and Cameroons, but ideally without the authoritarian instinct of both of those. To do so they must shed the beard and sandal image.
    That is because Macron's party is now the main non populist right party in France, albeit in the last French legislative election Melenchon's left of centre block came first, Macron's centrist block (who ended up governing with the centre right LRs) second and Le Pen's block third.

    Poland is centre right v nationalist right, the Democratic Party in Italy are more centre left than the LDs as the main opponents to Meloni's block (though there are some smaller parties like Renzi's closer to the LDs ideologically). Canada is basically a merged Conservative and Reform party v a LD party now, their Labour party, the NDP near wiped out on Monday
    This reinforces where I think things are going:

    - A centre-right/left party representing multilateralism, liberalism, free trade, capitalism, some degree of social reform but anti-revolution and virulently anti-Putin
    - A populist, nationalist right wing party with a strong anti-immigration and anti-woke platform, with a mildly pro-Russian foreign policy
    - A radical left party with elements of anti-Semitism, pacifism and eco-zealotry
    - localist, regionalist and separatist identity parties.
    I'd reluctantly support the first one but still feel politically homeless.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,671
    nico67 said:

    Lab drifting out on bF for Helmsy

    Apparently Reform are leading in postal votes .
    Wow. massive swing. Lab out to 12.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,543
    Nigel is crap is PM.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,321

    Andy_JS said:

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Mark Hall (Harlow) council election result:

    REF: 31.9% (+23.5)
    CON: 26.8% (+2.5)
    LAB: 22.7% (-24.9)
    GRN: 14.1% (+0.7)
    LDEM: 3.5% (-2.7)
    UKIP: 0.9% (+0.9)

    Reform GAIN from Labour"

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918075311175950695

    The Tory vote holding up regardless could be significant. That's the worst case scenario for Labour.
    But because it's a by-election that's not 2021 vote that's holding up, it's 2024's vote. If we compare to 2021 (as most of this elections are going to be) it's:
    🩵 REF: 31.9% (+31.9)
    💙 CON: 26.8% (-34.3)
    ❤️ LAB: 22.7% (-9.2)
    💚 GRN: 14.1% (+14.1)
    🧡 LDEM: 3.5% (-3.6)
    💜 UKIP: 0.9% (+0.9)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,409
    edited May 1
    Andy_JS said:

    The most spectacular result for RefUK would be to win the West of England mayoralty instead of the Greens. Can't see it happening myself.

    If I had gotten to the bookies before they stopped doing the mayoralities, I would have bet a clean sweep for Reform. Partly as an insurance bet, but mostly that Labour and Conservatives are so low in the polls those votes have to go somewhere, and in a low-turnout environment the protest votes win. Aaron Banks was 6/1 in WOE.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,671
    Dura_Ace said:

    Those Labour->REF swings are huge.

    IT'S HAPPENING!


    El Salvador bound?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,669
    Andy_JS said:

    The most spectacular result for RefUK would be to win the West of England mayoralty instead of the Greens. Can't see it happening myself.

    They will be rioting in the streets of Bristol if they do.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,244
    DM_Andy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Mark Hall (Harlow) council election result:

    REF: 31.9% (+23.5)
    CON: 26.8% (+2.5)
    LAB: 22.7% (-24.9)
    GRN: 14.1% (+0.7)
    LDEM: 3.5% (-2.7)
    UKIP: 0.9% (+0.9)

    Reform GAIN from Labour"

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918075311175950695

    The Tory vote holding up regardless could be significant. That's the worst case scenario for Labour.
    But because it's a by-election that's not 2021 vote that's holding up, it's 2024's vote. If we compare to 2021 (as most of this elections are going to be) it's:
    🩵 REF: 31.9% (+31.9)
    💙 CON: 26.8% (-34.3)
    ❤️ LAB: 22.7% (-9.2)
    💚 GRN: 14.1% (+14.1)
    🧡 LDEM: 3.5% (-3.6)
    💜 UKIP: 0.9% (+0.9)
    Still on swing since the general election, Reform would win the Harlow constituency and Labour come third
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,348
    Andy_JS said:

    Nigel is crap is PM.

    If the early results can be extrapolated in any way, it’s going to be an utterly disastrous night for Lab/Con.

    Clearly we are not anywhere near a GE yet. But it would cement the idea that Reform have become genuine players in UK politics now.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 967
    Dura_Ace said:

    Those Labour->REF swings are huge.

    IT'S HAPPENING!


    Has the tattooist been given a new identity...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,073
    If the early results are largely Labour defences, I think we’re going to see very strong Ref performances. In the Tory defences tomorrow things may be different.

    Right, take off time.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,330
    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects·2m
    Herne Hill and Loughborough Junction (Lambeth) council election result:

    GRN: 48.3% (+9.9)
    LAB: 39.7% (-11.0)
    CON: 5.0% (-0.3)
    REF: 3.7% (+3.7)
    LDEM: 3.3% (-2.2)

    Green GAIN from Labour.

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918084674775117909
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,543

    Andy_JS said:

    The most spectacular result for RefUK would be to win the West of England mayoralty instead of the Greens. Can't see it happening myself.

    They will be rioting in the streets of Bristol if they do.
    Surely there are too many votes within Bristol to prevent Ref from winning that election.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,224
    Thank God for London .

    Reform only registering 3.7% there in Lambeth .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,677

    "We've only been in for nine months" says Lab minister, repeatedly, as the waters surround her head.

    Long enough to deliver a hideous baby...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,669
    edited May 1
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The most spectacular result for RefUK would be to win the West of England mayoralty instead of the Greens. Can't see it happening myself.

    They will be rioting in the streets of Bristol if they do.
    Surely there are too many votes within Bristol to prevent Ref from winning that election.
    I would have thought so. Just saying, they rioted over a new Tescos opening, the thought that Big Nige disciple is their mayor will have them out on the streets.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,671
    Liberals coming in for Hull mayor. Now 4.3
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,543
    nico67 said:

    Thank God for London .

    Reform only registering 3.7% there in Lambeth .

    Lambeth is hardly representative of the whole of London.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,321
    HYUFD said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Mark Hall (Harlow) council election result:

    REF: 31.9% (+23.5)
    CON: 26.8% (+2.5)
    LAB: 22.7% (-24.9)
    GRN: 14.1% (+0.7)
    LDEM: 3.5% (-2.7)
    UKIP: 0.9% (+0.9)

    Reform GAIN from Labour"

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1918075311175950695

    The Tory vote holding up regardless could be significant. That's the worst case scenario for Labour.
    But because it's a by-election that's not 2021 vote that's holding up, it's 2024's vote. If we compare to 2021 (as most of this elections are going to be) it's:
    🩵 REF: 31.9% (+31.9)
    💙 CON: 26.8% (-34.3)
    ❤️ LAB: 22.7% (-9.2)
    💚 GRN: 14.1% (+14.1)
    🧡 LDEM: 3.5% (-3.6)
    💜 UKIP: 0.9% (+0.9)
    Still on swing since the general election, Reform would win the Harlow constituency and Labour come third
    I'm not saying that you're not true, but considering the Tories used to win that ward with 60% of the vote only 4 years ago, it's hardly a good result for the Tories.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,671
    Lab 6.8 for Runcorn
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,224
    Andy_JS said:

    nico67 said:

    Thank God for London .

    Reform only registering 3.7% there in Lambeth .

    Lambeth is hardly representative of the whole of London.
    Regardless it restores my faith !
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,224

    "We've only been in for nine months" says Lab minister, repeatedly, as the waters surround her head.

    Long enough to deliver a hideous baby...
    That’s a classic . Really made me laugh .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,671
    Incredible. BBC local guy talking about how winter fuel allowance still comes up on doorstep.

    Has there been a more stupid political decision by a CoE in decades?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,244
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    Ratters said:

    This is going to be a dreadful election for Labour and the Tories isn't it? And Reform's first real mark on local councils.

    I wonder if there will end up many Reform Vs Lib Dem first and second places? My instinct is that they largely inhabit mutually exclusive areas, but there must be a middle ground somewhere and they end up #1 and #2...

    The entirety of metropolitan France is effectively Reform vs Lib Dem (well not strictly the entirety, but a lot of it) so it’s quite possible. So is Poland, so is Italy, and so of course is Canada.

    The Lib Dems have an opportunity to represent the Macronist globalist liberal centre. I can feel the retching from parts of this site already. What used to be known as the Blairites and Cameroons, but ideally without the authoritarian instinct of both of those. To do so they must shed the beard and sandal image.
    That is because Macron's party is now the main non populist right party in France, albeit in the last French legislative election Melenchon's left of centre block came first, Macron's centrist block (who ended up governing with the centre right LRs) second and Le Pen's block third.

    Poland is centre right v nationalist right, the Democratic Party in Italy are more centre left than the LDs as the main opponents to Meloni's block (though there are some smaller parties like Renzi's closer to the LDs ideologically). Canada is basically a merged Conservative and Reform party v a LD party now, their Labour party, the NDP near wiped out on Monday
    This reinforces where I think things are going:

    - A centre-right/left party representing multilateralism, liberalism, free trade, capitalism, some degree of social reform but anti-revolution and virulently anti-Putin
    - A populist, nationalist right wing party with a strong anti-immigration and anti-woke platform, with a mildly pro-Russian foreign policy
    - A radical left party with elements of anti-Semitism, pacifism and eco-zealotry
    - localist, regionalist and separatist identity parties

    The challenge for the Lib Dems and Labour is which occupies the space of the first category. The challenge for the Tories is do they try to occupy the first, or the second.
    In which case the main battle would likely be between 1 and 2 for actual power, with 1 including the LDs, One Nation Tories and New Labour. 2 Reform and the ERG wing of the Conservatives. With 1 probably more likely to win more often, as in Canada this week with the Liberals re election they unite behind each other to keep out the populist right.

    3 would include the Corbynite wing of Labour and connected Independents and the Greens and could occasionally make significant gains as Corbyn did in 2017 or the leftist block did in the 2024 French legislative elections but still likely fall short of a majority needed for power.

  • vinovino Posts: 181
    nico67 said:

    Thank God for London .

    Reform only registering 3.7% there in Lambeth .

    I thought of you & DavidL as the results started coming through - enjoy the rest of the night.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 967
    The Reform bloke who's been dragged from a wedding has just shat the motel bed of the Reform Conservative clandestine affair... "We stood down for you at the last election and you reneged on the deal ..."
  • theoldpoliticstheoldpolitics Posts: 282
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The most spectacular result for RefUK would be to win the West of England mayoralty instead of the Greens. Can't see it happening myself.

    They will be rioting in the streets of Bristol if they do.
    Surely there are too many votes within Bristol to prevent Ref from winning that election.
    Not if they're split three ways.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,224

    Incredible. BBC local guy talking about how winter fuel allowance still comes up on doorstep.

    Has there been a more stupid political decision by a CoE in decades?

    No I still can’t believe they did that to save a paltry sum . Starmer should have vetoed the decision , but waved it through . What an idiot .
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,669
    edited May 1

    Incredible. BBC local guy talking about how winter fuel allowance still comes up on doorstep.

    Has there been a more stupid political decision by a CoE in decades?

    I am sure there is some interesting behavioural economics research to be done in this area. You can take huge amount of extra taxes by freezing thresholds and I bet it never comes up on the doorstep. You take away £250 a year directly from somebody and there is all hell to pay.
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