Categories
The 14/1 bet I’ve just taken – politicalbetting.com
The 14/1 bet I’ve just taken – politicalbetting.com
If things turn out as the polls predict then on Monday the Canadian Liberal Party are going to experience the greatest Canadian victory since The Battle of Vimy Ridge.
0
Comments
FPV of the Iranian explosion.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1916131971475935642
He argued that so long as the British colonies were under threat from a French rival to the north, the colonial settlers had to stay loyal to the crown for protection, thus only after the removal of the French from Canada were they able to even think of revolution against their own monarchy.
Further, the military experience the settlers who joined that campaign gained was later critical to organising the continental army. And, once it has lost its own colonies on the American continent, France was free to embrace and support the American revolution; French support being the critical factor in its success (as anyone who has learned their history other than inside the US will know).
On most Canadian polls the Conservatives are up at least 5% on the last GE in 2021 remember, just the Liberals are up about 10% so even more. It is the NDP vote which has collapsed to the Liberals not the Conservative vote and the Conservatives have squeezed some of the PPC and BQ vote to compensate.
Given the 2.5% swing to the Liberals nationally from the Conservatives, the 15% majority Poilievre had in 2021 should ensure he still holds his seat comfortably even if his majority is down
Just putting it out there.
But I expect yours to be the winner on Monday evening/Tuesday morning.
First thoughts is eight years for Nixon.
I got my tip in a full 7 minutes before his thread went up.
And, no, we don't live together.
By the way, 91 candidates? That would be like taking a roll of toilet paper into the polling booth.
Dan Quayle tried after seven years, in the 2000 Republican primaries, but didn't get far and of course George W won.
So, yes, really quite pivotal. To say the least
Edit: Just looked at Wiki, and the answer is no!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_deposit#Canada
"In Canada, there is no longer a deposit requirement for federal elections. On 25 October 2017, the judge presiding over Szuchewycz v. Canada found that the deposit requirement infringed Section 3 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms and could not be justified under Section 1 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. The successful Charter challenge of the deposit requirement was undertaken by self-represented Edmontonian Kieran Szuchewycz who had failed to meet the candidacy requirements for the 2015 Canadian federal election when attempting to run against the former prime minister Stephen Harper in the Calgary electoral district of Calgary Heritage.
Before the Szuchewycz v. Canada ruling, a candidate for Member of Parliament needed to place a $1,000 deposit."
Go on.
With the nuclear age and fairly radical reorganisations of the government under first Roosevelt and then Eisenhower that changed, and since then the Vice President has been much more than just a cipher. In the nineteenth century from the change in the electoral system until 1940 only two current or former Vice Presidents were even party nominees (excluding those who had become President in advance) - since 1952 that figure is seven.
I've been most of the last 26 years. He's genuinely very good at enthusing an audience.
It's not made up news that more resources are being sent to defend his seat. That wouldn't be the case if it was safe. The Globe and Mail says it looked a dead heat:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/globalnews.ca/news/11149672/poilievre-rallies-carleton-reports-could-lose-seat/amp/
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-federal-election-2025-pierre-poilievre-seat-ottawa-carleton-riding/
Oh, not that Pope?
Nixon too Watergate apart compared to Trump he was a colossus and brought China in from the cold of course rather than going to a trade war with it and was probably the most intelligent President in that timeframe with the most in depth knowledge of policy. Only Bill Clinton really challenged him on that
Then went browsing the other topical political bets on offer. The Greens in west of England mayoral look value. The odds on the LibDems in Cambs don’t look value - but are a lot better in terms of prospects than the recent polling there suggests. Sadly, Jenkyns at 1/3 in Lincs is pretty good value given recent polling, with just a few days to collect. I put a £1 on the LibDems in Hull, as that would be a cracking, and well deserved, result for their energetic young team. Reform to win in Doncaster at 4/7 is probably also value, but I will wait until me and the dog are staying there the night before polling day next week. I’m sure pre-election night in Doncaster will be one to remember.
Blair and Hague.
China seized Vietnam’s Sand Cay in the South China Sea, per FT. Chinese forces occupied the uninhabited island, which had Vietnamese posts and a fishing station, raising the PRC flag.
I must confess I'd be astonished if Poilievre lost his seat but whether he can stay on as CPC leader IF the party remains in opposition is another question.
There might be a better bet (if such markets were available) on LNP leader Peter Dutton losing his seat in Australia. He won the Dickson electorate 51.7-48.3 last time and he faces the same Labor candidate as last time.
Back to Canada and Mainstreet's rolling poll has a 5-point Liberal lead but the Nanos daily rolling poll has reduced the Liberal lead to just three points and to only five in the critical province of Ontario. CPC gains in Ontario might yet prevent Carney forming a majority Government but it could also be an outlier poll. We'll know more in two or three days.
I agree Jenkyns looks good at 1/3. I haven't researched much else.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-14638689/Experiments-dim-SUN-curb-global-warming.html
Dickson has been Coalition since 2001 so I suspect Dutton holds it even if he fails to beat Albanese nationally
"This is not Sand Cay, an island occupied by Vietnam. This is Sandy Cay, reefs with small and perhaps artificial sand mounds in the Thitu reefs (photo is on the central reef), west of Thitu island occupied by Philippines and second largest natural island of the Spratleys."
For the Greens to win they will need to rack up the votes in Bristol, to offset weakness in S Gloucs and Banes.
In addition to being VP for 8 years, he'd been ambassador to the United Nations, chairman of the Republican National Committee and director of the CIA. There wouldn't have been a noticeable uptick when Clinton succeeded him, although Clinton was an exceptional politician.
If they really have the zeitgeist...
https://zeihan.com/my-favorite-us-president-of-all-time-is/#transcript
That is a 2.8km swim, a 180km bike, and a 42.2km run (a marathon), in 8 hours 10 minutes.
(*) The Ironman brand, not the unbranded races over the same distance. I *hate* the branding nonsense.
@MattW fpt
Yes it has wheels!
No it isn't a real one. A real one once went for $13.75 million, and typically for a 427 (my one) you would have to pay over $2 million. So as you might guess it is a pretend one and a lot lot lot cheaper. Makes a fabulous noise though and gets a huge amount of attention. It is huge fun, with the added bonus that @Dura_Ace will be so annoyed I bought one. He is right though it is a death trap with all the power going to the back wheel. It is just for posing.
But just to repeat the point in contradiction to @leon and his evolutionary theories of macho man, well the cute dog attracts loads of women (it is unreal) and the car attracts a huge crowd (but not a single woman) so the sentimental approach wins over the macho side as far as potential mates are concerned hands down. Whereas the men drool over the car their partners probably think I am a plonker.
It also forced large continuing military expenditures on both parties.
I do hope that with increased media attention more people will visit Canada . It’s a wonderful country and if people do get out there the train journey from Calgary across the Rockies to Vancouver is out of this world .
We should spare a thought for the NDP who could have brought down the government last year and forced an election in which the Libs would have been trounced , the CPC would have gained a majority and the NDP would have not been suffering these huge losses .
Singh the NDP leader said he couldn’t bear to see the CPC win , fearful that programmes related to health might have been lost and I think to a degree Canada would have undergone a Trumpification of sorts , Poilievre at the time mimicking his style and bombastic rhetoric.
He’s softened his tone in the last few weeks as that was causing issues with some voters .
It’s somewhat ironic that the CPC are likely to gain a vote share that in previous elections would have been good enough to win .
This time though most NDP voters have coalesced around the Libs , the BQ have also lost support .
Guess what? MAGA lie, all the time, about everything.
"DUGAN escorts Flores-Ruiz through a “jury door” to avoid his arrest"
which is the judge led the individual to a private area of the court and they escaped, which is what was reported by the media.
Now we will have to wait if all the statements hold up to further investigation.
I was interested in a replica GT40. Originals of them are even more expensive so again it would have been a replica, but they are completely impractical to drive. Impossible to reverse into anywhere and you need a metre each side to open the doors. Still you could get them under the garage door without opening it
“¶32 a discussion about Judge Dugan "forcefully" and "stern[ly] instructing the man in question to go out the jury door. BUT! It is not only a door to the jury room. It is *also* an exit to the *public* hallway. You know, the hallway where law enforcement is waiting.”
https://x.com/TheFl0orIsLaVa/status/1916142932089782359
Silent? Fuck off. Farage is on the BBC so much they may as well give him the Match of the Day slot and have done with it.
It looks like they probably shake hands to me, just hidden by that bloke in front of the camera
EDIT Actually I don’t think they did, looking again. Although later on they did
https://x.com/cathyshaslam/status/1916164262612931002
Jack Surfleet
@jacksurfleet
THE OBSERVER: The Pope's last act
#TomorrowsPapersToday
https://x.com/jacksurfleet/status/1916222010369171544
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moral_Majority
Slight awkwardness and typical male shoulder patting.
Literally nothing to see here.